03/10/2004
Water Here and on Mars
Last week we discussed how our oceans and some of its creatures serve as sinks for carbon, helping to slow down global warming. Global warming and water made the headlines last week. Water on Mars grabbed the biggest headlines. However, Brian Trumbore called my attention to a New York Times article about a report prepared for the Pentagon on possible scientific and political consequences of global warming. The report contains a frightening scenario of the “colding” and associated effects that the warming might engender.
What is the evidence for water on Mars? The NASA/JPL Web site cites the finding by the Opportunity rover of the presence of “vugs” in one of the Mars rocks. I confess my ignorance of the term vug. Here on Earth, if there’s a rock sitting in very briny water loaded with salts of some form, crystals of the salts will form in the rock. Later, the salts may be eroded away, or if exposed to less salty water, may be redissolved. In either case, the removal of the salts leaves behind voids. These voids or indentations are vugs. Apparently, the term vug derives from the Cornish vooga, and is defined as a cavity, void or large pore in a rock commonly lined with mineral precipitates. Opportunity found indentations that were about a centimeter long and a quarter of a centimeter or less in width. The patterns looks to the experts to be quite similar to vugs in rocks on our own planet.
Two other features suggest the possible presence of water but aren’t as firmly established as originating from an aqueous source. One feature is the presence of spherical particles the size of BBs. They could be formed by minerals forming in the small pores of porous rock. However, there are also the possibilities they could be formed during either volcanic eruptions or as a result of meteor impacts. The other feature is “cross bedding”. This is the formation of layers in the rock that run at angles to the main layer patterns. Such cross bedding can result from either wind or water. Both the spherical particles and the cross bedding are likely due to water in the views of mission scientists but further work is needed to confirm their suspicions.
To me, an unambiguous piece of evidence is the identification of in the rock outcrop of “a hydrated iron sulfate mineral known as jarosite.” If a mineral is hydrated, that means it contains water – period. Three types of spectrometers were used to study the rock outcrop. Two of them, a Mossbauer spectrometer and an alpha particle X-ray spectrometer were supplied by Germany. A third one is the thermal emission spectrometer. I won’t discuss the operation of these instruments here but they permit the identification of the chemical elements and minerals present in the rocks. The presence of chlorine and bromine indicate that chloride and bromide salts are also likely to be present. Here on Earth, such mineral-rich rocks have either been formed in water or have been altered through long exposure to water.
Is all the current and future attention to Mars worth it? Not everyone thinks so. In an article by Joseph Verrengia in the March 7 edition of the Naples Daily News, critics of the proposed emphasis on Mars with an ultimate manned mission are quoted. One of the critics is Sylvia Earle, renowned explorer of the ocean depths. She points out that our ocean depths are vastly less well mapped than is Mars and maintains that the future of mankind is certainly more closely related to what happens in our oceans than what we find on Mars. Her response to the finding of water on Mars is essentially, “Hey, we suspected that all along!” In fairness, most critics don’t advocate cutting NASA’s space budget but do think more money should be devoted to our own waters.
Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall would probably agree with Earle’s view. They are the authors of a report commissioned by the Pentagon’s Andrew W. Marshall, whose bailiwick is apparently the assessment of long-term threats. I was surprised the Pentagon was so interested in global warming but, on reading the unclassified report, titled “An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security”, I can see why. The bottom line of the report is that global warming and the resulting melting of glaciers and other ice in the Arctic could lead to widespread conflicts, even nuclear war. All this could happen much sooner than you think.
We have discussed previously how fresh water introduced into the North Atlantic by Arctic melting could prompt a shutdown of the so-called “thermohaline conveyor”. This is the global seawater circulation pattern that covers the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans and includes the Gulf Stream that warms part of the U.S. A shutdown of the thermohaline conveyor has happened before. The authors of the Pentagon report have taken as their scenario a shutdown of the sort that happened 8,200 years ago, relatively recently on a geological time scale. They admit that this may be a drastic scenario, more extreme than what may actually happen. However, they point out that the 8,200-years-ago shutdown altered the climate abruptly and for a prolonged period of a hundred years. Their argument is that we need to plan for such an event should it actually transpire.
What are the consequences envisioned in this scenario of global warming? Without the warming of the thermohaline conveyor, North America and in Asia would cool down, not heat up, by as much as 5 degrees Fahrenheit on average while the cooling would be up to 6 degrees in northern Europe. In contrast, Australia, South America and southern Africa would heat up by as much as 4 degrees on average. Drought conditions would persist for key agricultural regions in the U.S. and Europe while strong winter storms and more windy conditions would magnify the hardships resulting from the climatic changes.
There would be a net global reduction in food production and shortages of fresh water. The term “carrying capacity” becomes important. For centuries, some have warned of the time when the world population becomes so large that the capacity of our Earth to sustain that population is lost. The scenario envisions a situation wherein those nations with adequate resources become fortresses, defending those resources. Other nations, with inadequate carrying capacity, become aggressors, fighting for their survival. Old alliances based on common interests, religious beliefs and the like would be replaced by new alliances based strictly on survival.
When could all this happen? The authors of the Pentagon report assert that today, while there is a general feeling that global warming is real, the warming trend is deemed to be so gradual that mankind will be able to adapt to the slowly changing climes. The 8,200 years ago scenario, however, is not gradual. The thermohaline conveyor could shut down much more quickly than we think. What if it shuts down only 6 years from now? We in the New Jersey area would start to experience cooler, drier, windier weather and by 2020 we would join Asia and Europe in having our 5 or 6 degree drops in average temperature.
Things go from bad to worse, with torrential rains, flooding, droughts, high winds, etc. replacing benign weather patterns all over the world. Widespread famine sets in as crop yields fall. Fish migrate as the ocean temperatures change, denying fishermen their livelihoods and their regions a source of food. Severe droughts and water shortages in some areas will contrast with extreme flooding in other areas. Wars break out and all manner of dire political, military and economic consequences result. I leave it to the interested reader to access this report and peruse it in detail. (Brian Trumbore sent me a copy but, according to the Times article, it’s available at www.ems.org/climate/pentagon-climate-change.pdf)
Scientists are not ignoring the possibility of shutdown of the thermocline conveyor. You might have seen a news report that just last Saturday, March 6, 12 Russian researchers were rescued from their floating ice station 400 miles from the North Pole. According to a report by Andrew Revkin that appeared in the March 7 Naples Daily News, the Russian researchers had been stationed on this floating ice since last April, almost a year! Their mission was to study long-term Arctic warming and the melting of the Arctic ice. For the Russians, the mission represented the resumption of a 31-year series of such year-round missions on drifting ice on the Arctic Ocean back in the period from 1937 to 1991.
Sustained monitoring of Arctic climactic conditions is not an easy task and the Russians deserve a lot of credit. The rescue, by helicopters flown well beyond their normal range, was necessitated when three-story high ridges of sea ice crushed or submerged most of the camp! Makes me appreciate the sunny warmth here on Marco Island in Florida even more.
Allen F. Bortrum
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