10/17/2002
Indonesia...Update
A brief update on the situation in Indonesia.
To begin with, the terror attack on the island of Bali will have a devastating impact on the entire Indonesian economy. Bali, alone, entertained 1.5 million tourists last year, 40% of Indonesia’s total. Needless to say, though, it’s not just tourism that will suffer. If I’m a businessman thinking of building a plant somewhere in Asia, it sure as hell isn’t going to be here. And this is sad, because the vast majority of these folks, of course, are good people who were just beginning to get their lives going when, first, the Asian Crisis of 1997 hit, then there was an eruption of ethnic violence, the overthrow of a longstanding government, a rough transition of power, the selection of two incredibly weak presidents who refused to tackle the homegrown terror issue, and then last weekend’s horrific bombing.
Since Indonesia’s declaration of independence in 1947, the country had but two rulers, the authoritarian Sukarno and Suharto, the latter having ruled 32 years until 1998 when he was thrown out amidst the economic crisis, only to be replaced by the incredibly inept Muslim scholar, Wahid.
Wahid was himself forced out in the summer of 2001 and replaced by the bumbling Megawati Sukarnoputri, the daughter of the founder of the nation, Sukarno. This is one dumb woman, having nothing to go on but her name, as well as being notorious for her weak command of the issues and indecisiveness.
From day one of her rule, the United States was telling Megawati that she needed to crack down on the terrorist threat. Even after 9/11, though, she ignored these entreaties, allowing her nation to become a haven for al Qaeda and its proxies.
The two prime homegrown terror groups that have been at the top of the U.S. watch list are Laskar Jihad (“militia of the holy war”) and Jemaah Islamiah. Both have ties to bin Laden, but the U.S. believes Jemaah Islamiah was responsible for the Bali bombing, while for its part, Laskar Jihad suddenly announced on Tuesday that it was disbanding and suspending operations. In other words, they are looking to lower their public profile just as Megawati is forced to address the terrorism issue head on.
Jemaah Islamiah’s leader, cleric Abubakar Baasyir, has denied any involvement in Saturday’s attack, ridiculously blaming the U.S. instead. Baasyir’s group has branches in Singapore, the Philippines and Malaysia, as well as thousands of adherents in Indonesia.
Both groups have been responsible for the deaths of thousands over just the past 2+ years. Both also sought to kill, convert or drive out non-Muslims and to impose Sharia law. Believe it or not, back in ’98 one clash that would spread to kill thousands originated when a Christian and a Muslim argued over a bus fare. 9,000 died in the fighting that followed.
There can be no doubt that Indonesia’s terror organizations are as wicked and cruel as any on earth, and there can also be no denying their links to al Qaeda. Megawati has to clean them out, but Indonesia is a sprawling nation with ample places to hide, plus it has a corrupt military that will only half-heartedly go after them.
The situation looks bleak. Megawati hasn’t wanted to confront the terror groups because she was intimidated by them, and despite some inevitable rhetoric over the coming days and weeks, I doubt that in the end her mission will meet with much success.
One final thought, the world needs to focus on the fact that Indonesia controls most of the sea routes to Asia, particularly the Strait of Malacca, the world’s busiest shipping lane. Western business interests must be assured that these waters are secure. As of today, they aren’t. The al Qaeda attack on the French oil tanker off Yemen could be replicated 20 times here, unless something is done.
As for the common folk in Indonesia, they deserve far better after all of the suffering they have witnessed, starting with a far better government.
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I’m going to be traveling out west for a few weeks and probably won’t be doing a “Hott Spotts” for Oct. 24. When I do return in this space (by Oct. 31) I’m going to use it to comment on the situation with the American farmer and the latest farm legislation.
Brian Trumbore
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