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01/05/2006
Lebanon: The Evolving Crisis
Last April I traveled to Beirut, Lebanon, just days after the
Syrian Army pulled out and about ten weeks after the
assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.
My hotel room overlooked the bomb site which at the time was
still largely untouched. [Much to my chagrin, as I ventured to it
each day.] I also hired a driver to take me into Hizbullah
territory (Baalbek) and that was one of the more memorable days
of my world travels.
So I feel uniquely qualified to address Lebanon as a hot spot
today and I am mildly amused at the commentary I read, most of
which hasn’t a clue as to what’s really going on there and just
how critical it is to the entire region.
Following are excerpts from a recent International Crisis Group
report titled “Lebanon: Managing the Gathering Storm.”
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“The February 14, 2005, assassination of former Prime Minister
Hariri – preceded by the decision to extend President Emile
Lahoud’s term – set off a chain reaction of local and regional
events that began with the rapid withdrawal of Syrian troops,
proceeded with elections and the formation of a new
government, carried on with a UN report on the killing, and
continues to this day. The abruptness of Syria’s exit
unquestionably was a success for the demonstrators who poured
into the streets of Beirut on March 14 and for members of the
international community – the U.S. and France at their head –
who had pushed for it. Paradoxically, however, it also left the
country with scant time to prepare an order. Or, as an influential
member of Parliament put it: ‘We have moved into a new house.
But no one yet knows who will take which room. Everyone
wants to get the best one, and it’s led to sectarian squabbling.
We have to find a way to divide the house in which there is space
for all .
“It was the job of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, who took office
on July 19, 2005, to manage the situation and try to cast off
unwelcome burdens of the past. So far, a majority of Lebanese
believe, he has performed adroitly; Western and UN officials
generally agree. Hizbullah, the powerful Shiite movement that
heretofore had rejected ministerial portfolios, is in the
government, and the cabinet has agreed that the issue of its
eventual disarmament would be resolved solely by consensus .
“The premier is also carving out a new foreign policy based
chiefly on close relations with the West, especially the U.S., and
with Egypt and Saudi Arabia. [Ed. note. Hariri was very close
to the Saudi royal family.]
“But Siniora’s room for maneuver is heavily constrained.
Unsure whose orders to obey, deprived of their senior
commanders, and waiting to see who will prevail, officials in the
security apparatus often choose the safest path, which is to do
nothing .
“Many ministers are completely under the control of Syrian and
Lebanese security officials. As long as (President) Lahoud [ed. a
crony of Damascus] is in place, the remnants of the security
system will survive.
“In an atmosphere of relative insecurity and fear, ordinary
citizens increasingly look to their sectarian communities for
succor and protection; meanwhile, many leaders have either
withdrawn to mountain-top bases or taken temporary refuge
abroad. Rumors concerning ongoing rearmament of various
factions abound. An adviser to MP Michel Aoun expressed
alarm: ‘People are saying that, if Hizbullah has arms, why
shouldn’t we? When one side has weapons, others have an
excuse for acquiring them. Ultimately, we will have three states
in one.’ An Amal militiaman alleged that training had resumed
in preparation for a potential showdown, and his movement was
coordinating with smaller pro-Syrian movements. [Ed. note.
Israel hit an Amal training camp, just five miles south of Beirut’s
city center, about ten days ago.] In a sign of growing sectarian
divide, Crisis Group witnessed over a dozen armored personnel
carriers rush to disperse fans outside a south Beirut stadium
following a scuffle in late October 2005 between supporters of
Najma, Amal leader Nabih Berri’s soccer team, and Faisali, a
Jordanian team, which some Beirut Sunnis had turned out to
support.
“Prosperous Lebanese confess they now think twice before
frequenting public places. Internal and external investment is
dwindling. Religious charities claim they recorded their worst
Ramadan since the Civil War . In the words of a Beirut-based
manager of the Hariri-owned Oger Liban, ‘Everything is now
frozen. I’m not even purchasing a car because I don’t know
whether we are staying here and whether we will witness war or
peace.’
“While the (spring) elections briefly blurred sectarian divisions,
leading to odd alliances, the (Detlev) Mehlis investigation
quickly reopened old divisions and heightened tensions. Within
hours of the formation of the new cabinet on July 19, 2005,
Mehlis named as a suspect Mustafa Hamdan, the Presidential
Guard commander and widely viewed as Lahoud’s aide-de-
camp .
“Since the publication of the report, Lebanese cohesion has
shown further signs of unraveling. Five Shiite politicians,
including Foreign Minister Fawzi Salloukh walked out of a
Cabinet meeting in early November in a dispute arising from
discussion of Assad’s speech, which attacked Siniora; the
government has struggled to mollify mainly Shiite protestors
against high fuel prices in the border areas of the Bekaa Valley
near Syria, after demonstrations encouraged by the Syrian media;
and, underscoring its continued military role, Hizbullah marked
Independence Day by launching its first attacks across the UN-
demarcated Blue Line with Israel in five months, producing
some of the most violent clashes since Israel’s withdrawal in
2000.
“In short, Siniora and the country as a whole must now contend
with deeply rooted sectarian loyalties and antagonisms in a
context of enhanced regional and international stakes. In the
absence of direct Syrian control but with active indirect
interference, and with the political situation in flux, fractious
confessional leaders have struggled to fill the vacuum, eager to
protect and promote their status, leading to more divisiveness, in
the eyes of many, than at any point since the civil war. As
always in such circumstances, foreign actors both rush in and are
pulled in, while Lebanon inches toward its traditional role as the
locale for proxy wars. The level of intermingling between the
domestic and the international is conveyed by a statistic:
according to an opinion poll, more than 80 percent of Sunnis and
Christians trust Mehlis’ investigation, but two-thirds of Shiites
did not. From a spate of car bombs to prolonged gun battles
around Palestinian camps, from sectarian suspicion to
international stakes, Lebanon abounds with dynamite fuses, all
threatening to ignite a conflagration .
“With sectarian hostility spreading alarmingly throughout the
region, the possibility of jihadi Islamists turning to Lebanon also
worries some. Though they may well be exaggerated, reports of
increased activism by Sunni Islamists stoke such fears. (Some
claim) that Abu Musab al-Zarqawi is attracting more than a
few Lebanese followers. Certainly, events in Iraq since
Saddam’s fall appear to have infected Sunni / Shiite relations in
Lebanon, with members of Muslim confessions tending to fall in
line behind their respective communities. A Western diplomat
cautioned: ‘We can’t exclude the possibility that Zarqawi might
do something in Lebanon. We have to closely monitor the influx
of Salafi militants as well as the impact of Iraq. The fight could
spread here.’
“Sectarian tensions are greater than at any time since 1990.
Lebanon has always been a place where Shiites and Sunni
coexist. But outside involvement – of Iran with Shiites and of
Arab states with Sunnis – is making matters worse.
“An-Nahar’s news editor said: ‘We are becoming a proxy for a
battle between different states and international agendas. And
frankly, no one knows where this is heading.’”
This report was printed in the Daily Star newspaper of Lebanon
on Dec. 5, 2005. On Dec. 12, the An-Nahar editor cited above,
Gibran Tueni, was assassinated for his anti-Syrian reporting.
That just about sums up what is happening in this beautiful, yet
deeply troubled, country.
Hott Spotts will return Jan. 12.
Brian Trumbore
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