12/28/2006
Iran / Iraq
Just a few notes on some hot spots in the news.
Iran
The UN Security Council’s 15 members voted unanimously on a resolution to limit trade in material and technology that Iran could use to create a nuclear weapon, though the act was greatly watered-down compared to what the United States had originally sought.
Resolution 1737, passed under Article 41 of the UN Charter, makes enforcement mandatory but excludes military action. All UN member states must “prevent the supply, sale or transfer of all items, materials, equipment, goods and technology which could contribute to Iran’s enrichment-related, reprocessing or heavy water-related activities or to the development of nuclear weapon delivery systems” such as ballistic missiles.
Lets individual nations use their own judgment in barring dual- use items if they contribute to Iran’s prohibited nuclear work, but those nations will need to verify the “end-use and end-use location” and inform Security Council’s sanctions committee.
Exempts equipment for light-water reactors from the ban. It also exempts low-enriched uranium in assembled nuclear fuel elements. [This provision exempts an $800 million light-water reactor that Russia is building for Iran at Bushehr.]
Imposes a freeze of funds and financial assets owned or controlled by entities or persons associated with Iran’s nuclear or missile programs. There are exceptions to the freeze, including deals made in prior contracts.
Targets 10 organizations and 12 individuals for the freeze, and calls on states to notify a Security Council sanctions panel should any individuals or envoys of groups on the list cross their borders.
*Allows sanctions to be lifted if Iran honors all Security Council and IAEA directives, but also says further measures will be considered if Iran does not comply. IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei has 60 days to report back to the Security Council.
Tensions with the international community increased after the IAEA reported in 2003 that Iran had hidden a uranium enrichment program for 18 years. Then the IAEA referred Iran to the Security Council in February 2006. The Council later gave Iran a August 31 deadline to halt enrichment as a precondition to negotiations, which Iran ignored.
Iran says that under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) it has the right to enrich its own fuel for civil nuclear power, under IAEA inspection. Iran contends it is merely doing what it is allowed to. It needs nuclear power because a far greater percentage of its oil is for domestic demand compared to just 5 to 10 years ago, thus Iran’s chief export will continue to bring in less revenue unless it develops alternative energy sources. President Ahmadinejad has repeatedly said Iran would not give in to bullying by the international community.
Iran has threatened to leave the NPT. Israel, India and Pakistan, all of whom have nuclear weapons, are not members. North Korea left the treaty and has announced its own nuclear capability.
I will have far more commentary in my “Week in Review” column as usual.
Sources: Reuters, BBC News
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Iraq
President Bush is weighing the introduction of more troops into Iraq; Baghdad and the surrounding area specifically. The president has reacted favorably to a report headed up by Frederick W. Kagan of the American Enterprise Institute which contains the thoughts, among others, of retired general Jack Keane.
Here are some of the bullet points of the Kagan study which can be found on aei.org/publication25292.
“Victory is still an option in Iraq. America, a country of 300 million people with a GDP of $12 trillion, and more than 1 million soldiers and marines can regain control of Iraq, a state the size of California with a population of 25 million and a GDP under $100 billion.
“Victory in Iraq is vital to America’s security. Defeat will lead to regional conflict, humanitarian catastrophe, and increased global terrorism.
“Iraq has reached a critical point. The strategy of relying on a political process to eliminate the insurgency has failed. Rising sectarian violence threatens to break America’s will to fight. This violence will destroy the Iraqi government, armed forces, and people if it is not rapidly controlled.”
“Three courses of action have been proposed. All will fail.
--“Withdraw immediately. This approach will lead to immediate defeat. The Iraqi Security Forces are entirely dependent upon American support to survive and function. If U.S. forces withdraw now, they will collapse and Iraq will descend into total civil war that will rapidly spread throughout the region.
--“Engage Iraq’s neighbors. This approach will fail. The basic causes of violence and sources of manpower and resources for the warring sides come from within Iraq. Iraq’s neighbors are encouraging the violence, but they cannot stop it.
--“Increase embedded trainers dramatically. This approach cannot succeed rapidly enough to prevent defeat. Removing U.S. forces from patrolling neighborhoods to embed them as trainers will lead to an immediate rise in violence. This rise in violence will destroy America’s remaining will to fight, and escalate the cycle of sectarian violence in Iraq beyond anything an Iraqi army could bring under control.
“We must act now to restore security and stability to Baghdad. We and the enemy have identified it as the decisive point.
--“We must change our focus from training Iraqi soldiers to securing the Iraqi population and containing the rising violence. Securing the population has never been the primary mission of the U.S. military effort in Iraq, and now it must become the first priority.
--“We must send more American combat forces into Iraq and especially into Baghdad to support this operation. A surge of seven Army brigades and Marine regiments to support clear-and- hold operations starting in the spring of 2007 is necessary, possible, and will be sufficient.
--“These forces, partnered with Iraqi units, will clear critical Sunni and mixed Sunni-Shia neighborhoods, primarily on the west side of the city.
--“After the neighborhoods have been cleared, U.S. soldiers and Marines, again partnered with Iraqis, will remain behind to maintain security.
--“As security is established, reconstruction aid will help to reestablish normal life and, working through Iraqi officials, will strengthen Iraqi local government.
This approach requires a national commitment to victory in Iraq:
--“The ground forces must accept longer tours for several years. National Guard units will have to accept increased deployments during this period.
--“Equipment shortages must be overcome by transferring equipment from non-deploying active duty, National Guard, and reserve units to those about to deploy. Military industry must be mobilized to provide replacement equipment sets urgently.
--“The president must request a dramatic increase in reconstruction aid for Iraq. Responsibility and accountability for reconstruction must be assigned to established agencies. The president must insist upon the completion of reconstruction projects.
--“The president must request a substantial increase in ground forces and strength. This increase is vital to sustaining the morale of the combat forces by ensuring that relief is on the way. The president must issue a personal call for young Americans to volunteer to fight in the decisive conflict of this age.”
“Failure in Iraq today will require far greater sacrifices tomorrow in far more desperate circumstances. Committing to victory now will demonstrate America’s strength to our friends and enemies around the world.”
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Hott Spotts will return January 11.
Brian Trumbore
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