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12/28/2006

Iran / Iraq

Just a few notes on some hot spots in the news.

Iran

The UN Security Council’s 15 members voted unanimously on a
resolution to limit trade in material and technology that Iran
could use to create a nuclear weapon, though the act was greatly
watered-down compared to what the United States had originally
sought.

Resolution 1737, passed under Article 41 of the UN Charter,
makes enforcement mandatory but excludes military action. All
UN member states must “prevent the supply, sale or transfer of
all items, materials, equipment, goods and technology which
could contribute to Iran’s enrichment-related, reprocessing or
heavy water-related activities or to the development of nuclear
weapon delivery systems” such as ballistic missiles.

Lets individual nations use their own judgment in barring dual-
use items if they contribute to Iran’s prohibited nuclear work, but
those nations will need to verify the “end-use and end-use
location” and inform Security Council’s sanctions committee.

Exempts equipment for light-water reactors from the ban. It also
exempts low-enriched uranium in assembled nuclear fuel
elements. [This provision exempts an $800 million light-water
reactor that Russia is building for Iran at Bushehr.]

Imposes a freeze of funds and financial assets owned or
controlled by entities or persons associated with Iran’s nuclear or
missile programs. There are exceptions to the freeze, including
deals made in prior contracts.

Targets 10 organizations and 12 individuals for the freeze, and
calls on states to notify a Security Council sanctions panel should
any individuals or envoys of groups on the list cross their
borders.

*Allows sanctions to be lifted if Iran honors all Security Council
and IAEA directives, but also says further measures will be
considered if Iran does not comply. IAEA chief Mohamed
ElBaradei has 60 days to report back to the Security Council.

Tensions with the international community increased after the
IAEA reported in 2003 that Iran had hidden a uranium
enrichment program for 18 years. Then the IAEA referred Iran
to the Security Council in February 2006. The Council later
gave Iran a August 31 deadline to halt enrichment as a
precondition to negotiations, which Iran ignored.

Iran says that under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)
it has the right to enrich its own fuel for civil nuclear power,
under IAEA inspection. Iran contends it is merely doing what it
is allowed to. It needs nuclear power because a far greater
percentage of its oil is for domestic demand compared to just 5 to
10 years ago, thus Iran’s chief export will continue to bring in
less revenue unless it develops alternative energy sources.
President Ahmadinejad has repeatedly said Iran would not give
in to bullying by the international community.

Iran has threatened to leave the NPT. Israel, India and Pakistan,
all of whom have nuclear weapons, are not members. North
Korea left the treaty and has announced its own nuclear
capability.

I will have far more commentary in my “Week in Review”
column as usual.

Sources: Reuters, BBC News

---

Iraq

President Bush is weighing the introduction of more troops into
Iraq; Baghdad and the surrounding area specifically. The
president has reacted favorably to a report headed up by
Frederick W. Kagan of the American Enterprise Institute which
contains the thoughts, among others, of retired general Jack
Keane.

Here are some of the bullet points of the Kagan study which can
be found on aei.org/publication25292.

“Victory is still an option in Iraq. America, a country of 300
million people with a GDP of $12 trillion, and more than 1
million soldiers and marines can regain control of Iraq, a state
the size of California with a population of 25 million and a GDP
under $100 billion.

“Victory in Iraq is vital to America’s security. Defeat will lead
to regional conflict, humanitarian catastrophe, and increased
global terrorism.

“Iraq has reached a critical point. The strategy of relying on a
political process to eliminate the insurgency has failed. Rising
sectarian violence threatens to break America’s will to fight.
This violence will destroy the Iraqi government, armed forces,
and people if it is not rapidly controlled.”

“Three courses of action have been proposed. All will fail.

--“Withdraw immediately. This approach will lead to immediate
defeat. The Iraqi Security Forces are entirely dependent upon
American support to survive and function. If U.S. forces
withdraw now, they will collapse and Iraq will descend into total
civil war that will rapidly spread throughout the region.

--“Engage Iraq’s neighbors. This approach will fail. The basic
causes of violence and sources of manpower and resources for
the warring sides come from within Iraq. Iraq’s neighbors are
encouraging the violence, but they cannot stop it.

--“Increase embedded trainers dramatically. This approach
cannot succeed rapidly enough to prevent defeat. Removing
U.S. forces from patrolling neighborhoods to embed them as
trainers will lead to an immediate rise in violence. This rise in
violence will destroy America’s remaining will to fight, and
escalate the cycle of sectarian violence in Iraq beyond anything
an Iraqi army could bring under control.

“We must act now to restore security and stability to Baghdad.
We and the enemy have identified it as the decisive point.

--“We must change our focus from training Iraqi soldiers to
securing the Iraqi population and containing the rising violence.
Securing the population has never been the primary mission of
the U.S. military effort in Iraq, and now it must become the first
priority.

--“We must send more American combat forces into Iraq and
especially into Baghdad to support this operation. A surge of
seven Army brigades and Marine regiments to support clear-and-
hold operations starting in the spring of 2007 is necessary,
possible, and will be sufficient.

--“These forces, partnered with Iraqi units, will clear critical
Sunni and mixed Sunni-Shia neighborhoods, primarily on the
west side of the city.

--“After the neighborhoods have been cleared, U.S. soldiers and
Marines, again partnered with Iraqis, will remain behind to
maintain security.

--“As security is established, reconstruction aid will help to
reestablish normal life and, working through Iraqi officials, will
strengthen Iraqi local government.

This approach requires a national commitment to victory in Iraq:

--“The ground forces must accept longer tours for several years.
National Guard units will have to accept increased deployments
during this period.

--“Equipment shortages must be overcome by transferring
equipment from non-deploying active duty, National Guard, and
reserve units to those about to deploy. Military industry must be
mobilized to provide replacement equipment sets urgently.

--“The president must request a dramatic increase in
reconstruction aid for Iraq. Responsibility and accountability for
reconstruction must be assigned to established agencies. The
president must insist upon the completion of reconstruction
projects.

--“The president must request a substantial increase in ground
forces and strength. This increase is vital to sustaining the
morale of the combat forces by ensuring that relief is on the way.
The president must issue a personal call for young Americans to
volunteer to fight in the decisive conflict of this age.”

“Failure in Iraq today will require far greater sacrifices tomorrow
in far more desperate circumstances. Committing to victory now
will demonstrate America’s strength to our friends and enemies
around the world.”

---

Hott Spotts will return January 11.

Brian Trumbore


AddThis Feed Button

 

-12/28/2006-      
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Hot Spots

12/28/2006

Iran / Iraq

Just a few notes on some hot spots in the news.

Iran

The UN Security Council’s 15 members voted unanimously on a
resolution to limit trade in material and technology that Iran
could use to create a nuclear weapon, though the act was greatly
watered-down compared to what the United States had originally
sought.

Resolution 1737, passed under Article 41 of the UN Charter,
makes enforcement mandatory but excludes military action. All
UN member states must “prevent the supply, sale or transfer of
all items, materials, equipment, goods and technology which
could contribute to Iran’s enrichment-related, reprocessing or
heavy water-related activities or to the development of nuclear
weapon delivery systems” such as ballistic missiles.

Lets individual nations use their own judgment in barring dual-
use items if they contribute to Iran’s prohibited nuclear work, but
those nations will need to verify the “end-use and end-use
location” and inform Security Council’s sanctions committee.

Exempts equipment for light-water reactors from the ban. It also
exempts low-enriched uranium in assembled nuclear fuel
elements. [This provision exempts an $800 million light-water
reactor that Russia is building for Iran at Bushehr.]

Imposes a freeze of funds and financial assets owned or
controlled by entities or persons associated with Iran’s nuclear or
missile programs. There are exceptions to the freeze, including
deals made in prior contracts.

Targets 10 organizations and 12 individuals for the freeze, and
calls on states to notify a Security Council sanctions panel should
any individuals or envoys of groups on the list cross their
borders.

*Allows sanctions to be lifted if Iran honors all Security Council
and IAEA directives, but also says further measures will be
considered if Iran does not comply. IAEA chief Mohamed
ElBaradei has 60 days to report back to the Security Council.

Tensions with the international community increased after the
IAEA reported in 2003 that Iran had hidden a uranium
enrichment program for 18 years. Then the IAEA referred Iran
to the Security Council in February 2006. The Council later
gave Iran a August 31 deadline to halt enrichment as a
precondition to negotiations, which Iran ignored.

Iran says that under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)
it has the right to enrich its own fuel for civil nuclear power,
under IAEA inspection. Iran contends it is merely doing what it
is allowed to. It needs nuclear power because a far greater
percentage of its oil is for domestic demand compared to just 5 to
10 years ago, thus Iran’s chief export will continue to bring in
less revenue unless it develops alternative energy sources.
President Ahmadinejad has repeatedly said Iran would not give
in to bullying by the international community.

Iran has threatened to leave the NPT. Israel, India and Pakistan,
all of whom have nuclear weapons, are not members. North
Korea left the treaty and has announced its own nuclear
capability.

I will have far more commentary in my “Week in Review”
column as usual.

Sources: Reuters, BBC News

---

Iraq

President Bush is weighing the introduction of more troops into
Iraq; Baghdad and the surrounding area specifically. The
president has reacted favorably to a report headed up by
Frederick W. Kagan of the American Enterprise Institute which
contains the thoughts, among others, of retired general Jack
Keane.

Here are some of the bullet points of the Kagan study which can
be found on aei.org/publication25292.

“Victory is still an option in Iraq. America, a country of 300
million people with a GDP of $12 trillion, and more than 1
million soldiers and marines can regain control of Iraq, a state
the size of California with a population of 25 million and a GDP
under $100 billion.

“Victory in Iraq is vital to America’s security. Defeat will lead
to regional conflict, humanitarian catastrophe, and increased
global terrorism.

“Iraq has reached a critical point. The strategy of relying on a
political process to eliminate the insurgency has failed. Rising
sectarian violence threatens to break America’s will to fight.
This violence will destroy the Iraqi government, armed forces,
and people if it is not rapidly controlled.”

“Three courses of action have been proposed. All will fail.

--“Withdraw immediately. This approach will lead to immediate
defeat. The Iraqi Security Forces are entirely dependent upon
American support to survive and function. If U.S. forces
withdraw now, they will collapse and Iraq will descend into total
civil war that will rapidly spread throughout the region.

--“Engage Iraq’s neighbors. This approach will fail. The basic
causes of violence and sources of manpower and resources for
the warring sides come from within Iraq. Iraq’s neighbors are
encouraging the violence, but they cannot stop it.

--“Increase embedded trainers dramatically. This approach
cannot succeed rapidly enough to prevent defeat. Removing
U.S. forces from patrolling neighborhoods to embed them as
trainers will lead to an immediate rise in violence. This rise in
violence will destroy America’s remaining will to fight, and
escalate the cycle of sectarian violence in Iraq beyond anything
an Iraqi army could bring under control.

“We must act now to restore security and stability to Baghdad.
We and the enemy have identified it as the decisive point.

--“We must change our focus from training Iraqi soldiers to
securing the Iraqi population and containing the rising violence.
Securing the population has never been the primary mission of
the U.S. military effort in Iraq, and now it must become the first
priority.

--“We must send more American combat forces into Iraq and
especially into Baghdad to support this operation. A surge of
seven Army brigades and Marine regiments to support clear-and-
hold operations starting in the spring of 2007 is necessary,
possible, and will be sufficient.

--“These forces, partnered with Iraqi units, will clear critical
Sunni and mixed Sunni-Shia neighborhoods, primarily on the
west side of the city.

--“After the neighborhoods have been cleared, U.S. soldiers and
Marines, again partnered with Iraqis, will remain behind to
maintain security.

--“As security is established, reconstruction aid will help to
reestablish normal life and, working through Iraqi officials, will
strengthen Iraqi local government.

This approach requires a national commitment to victory in Iraq:

--“The ground forces must accept longer tours for several years.
National Guard units will have to accept increased deployments
during this period.

--“Equipment shortages must be overcome by transferring
equipment from non-deploying active duty, National Guard, and
reserve units to those about to deploy. Military industry must be
mobilized to provide replacement equipment sets urgently.

--“The president must request a dramatic increase in
reconstruction aid for Iraq. Responsibility and accountability for
reconstruction must be assigned to established agencies. The
president must insist upon the completion of reconstruction
projects.

--“The president must request a substantial increase in ground
forces and strength. This increase is vital to sustaining the
morale of the combat forces by ensuring that relief is on the way.
The president must issue a personal call for young Americans to
volunteer to fight in the decisive conflict of this age.”

“Failure in Iraq today will require far greater sacrifices tomorrow
in far more desperate circumstances. Committing to victory now
will demonstrate America’s strength to our friends and enemies
around the world.”

---

Hott Spotts will return January 11.

Brian Trumbore