|
04/12/2007
Climate Change
With the latest from the United Nations’ Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change, I thought some of the scientists’
conclusions were in keeping with the title of this column, “hott
spotts.”
The report shows that poor countries would be hit worst by
climate change, while some rich countries, such as northern
Europe and Canada could see benefits, especially in terms of
increased crop yields.
BBC News had a good summary of the panel’s analysis, some of
which follows.
Africa
“In some countries, yields from rain-fed agriculture could be
reduced by up to 50% by 2020.”
Rising temperatures, coupled with over-fishing, will also
drastically affect the supply of fish from large lakes.
Asia
“Glacier melting in the Himalayas is virtually certain to disrupt
water supplies within the next 20 to 30 years.”
“Forecast changes in temperature and rainfall are likely to reduce
crop yields overall, increasing the risk of hunger.”
“The presence of lethal diarrhoeal (sic) diseases associated with
floods and droughts is expected to rise in East, South and
southeast Asia and rises in coastal water temperature could
exacerbate cholera in South Asia.”
Australia and New Zealand
“Ongoing water shortages, notably in southern and eastern
Australia, are likely to get worse by 2030.”
In New Zealand, however, warmer temperatures should result in
longer growing seasons and reduced energy demand.
I do have to add I’ve written much on Australia in my “Week in
Review” column and to me this is truly Ground Zero. From all
I’ve gleaned, temperatures here are likely to rise far more than
forecast and a nation already in drought today faces severe
problems.
Europe
Central and Eastern Europe face greater droughts and water
shortages. Southern Europe will suffer from extensive
heatwaves.
But northern countries will “benefit from increased crop yields,
forest productivity, and food supplies from the North Atlantic.”
Latin America
“Changes in rainfall patterns and the disappearance of glaciers
are projected to significantly affect water availability for human
consumption, agriculture and energy generation.”
North America
“Warming in western mountains is very likely to reduce
snowpack, bringing more floods in winter and reduced water
supplies in summer.”
The elderly in urban areas will suffer from increased heatwaves.
“Rising sea levels, severe weather and storm surges, combined
with population growth in coastal areas, are very likely to
increase economic losses.”
Polar Regions: Arctic and Antarctica
Aside from the well-known declines in thickness and extent of
glaciers and ice sheets, “There are virtually certain to be both
negative and positive effects on Arctic peoples. Detrimental
impacts would include those on infrastructure and traditional
indigenous ways of life while beneficial effects would include
reduced heating costs and more navigable northern sea routes.”
Small islands
Rising sea levels doom some of them. I built a church on an
island in Micronesia (Yap) that is on high-enough ground, as is
much of Yap, but other islands will eventually disappear.
The Poor
“Poor communities can be especially vulnerable because they
tend to be concentrated in relatively high-risk areas, have more
limited coping capacities, and can be more dependent on climate-
sensitive resources such as local water and food supplies. Where
extreme weather events become more intense, the economic
costs of those events will increase, and these increases are likely
to be substantial in the areas most directly affected.”
Health
While much of the news and conclusions about climate change is
dire, it does need to be pointed out that the number of deaths
from cold exposure will more than likely drop at a rate greater
than the increased number dying from rising temperatures.
Personally, I’d boil it down to a few key issues. Weather will
become more severe, crop yields will increase in many areas
even as drought impacts others, and, yes, the poor will suffer
disproportionately.
But one must also recognize that we are making tremendous
strides on the alternative energy front and as for China, the
government itself knows that the country is doomed unless they
mend their ways, quickly, and that is half the battle.
Whether or not it is already too late, we’ll find out soon enough.
---
Hott Spotts will return April 19.
Brian Trumbore
|
