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05/03/2007
Addressing China
Ashton B. Carter, chair of the International Relations, Science
and Security area at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government,
and William J. Perry, professor at Stanford’s Institute for
International Studies, recently co-wrote a piece for the Mar./Apr.
2007 issue of The National Interest. Titled “China on the
March,” following are a few selected excerpts.
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Regarding its military plans:
“The Chinese (stress) the need for ‘informationalization’ or what
the United States calls ‘command, computers, control,
communications, intelligence, reconnaissance and surveillance.
[C(4)ISR] The (latest) white paper stresses satellite and airborne
sensors, unmanned aerial vehicles and information warfare .
“The white paper is more circumspect about the missions it
envisions for its growing and modernizing force, but we can
nonetheless identify several objectives. First is to maintain
strategic nuclear deterrence by maintaining a force of ICBMs and
SLBMs. Second is to puncture American dominance wherever
possible. China aims to exploit vulnerabilities in key American
capabilities, using counter-space, counter-carrier, counter-air and
information warfare to keep the United States from dominating a
military confrontation, even if eventual U.S. victory is assured .
“(The) Chinese military is still seen as an important guarantor of
domestic stability. China’s leaders, all of whom lived through
the Cultural Revolution, fear internal disorder perhaps above all
other ‘national security’ threats. Public rioting and other
disorders are growing – even in the statistics reported by the
Chinese authorities. In 2004, 74,000 ‘mass incidents’ were
reported. This is the predictable result of rapid and uneven
economic change. Unlike the Soviet Union, however, China is
not an ethnic patchwordk; the likelihood of ethnic disintegration
in a country 92 percent Han Chinese is remote. Nonetheless, the
regime sees the armed forces as an important deterrent to would-
be troublemakers.”
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“(The reality is), barring an economic slowdown or other
catastrophe, China will develop its military power in parallel
with its financial and political power, seeking to accomplish the
missions its strategy dictates .
“Japan, Russia, India and others will soon face a Chinese
military much more formidable than in the past. China will
slowly go from being a continental power to a regional (though
not global) power
“We must monitor irredentist claims, aggressive rhetoric about
‘enemies’ like Japan and the growth of hypernationalism among
Chinese youth overdosing on ‘standing up proud.’ .
“Other potential alarming developments include: the emergence
of offensive biological or chemical weapons programs, an
attempt to match or exceed the U.S. strategic nuclear deterrent
force in overall numbers, changing Chinese nuclear policy from
no-first-use minimum deterrent to first-use or counterforce, or
any large expansion in scale and scope of weapons purchases
from Russia .Finally, major new military alliances or foreign
basing of Chinese forces could signal Beijing’s readiness to
challenge America’s global position.”
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“So what should the United States do? First, we must invest
broadly in military capabilities, using a portfolio approach that
gives appropriate emphasis to advanced aerospace and maritime
forces – as well as to the ground and special forces needed for
other near-term missions.
“We must take nothing for granted, and this means improving the
intensity and quality of intelligence on and analysis of the
Chinese military. Washington must also maintain and expand
U.S. alliances in Asia, including those with Japan, South Korea
and Australia, pursuing deeper military partnerships with the
Philippines, Singapore, India and possibly Vietnam.”
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Separately, from the same issue of The National Interest, I note
this comment on Iran from Richard K. Betts, director of
Columbia University’s Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and
Peace Studies.
“Focusing on Iran distracts attention from more worrisome
dangers. North Korea – which has already tested and begun
stocking up on nuclear weapons and is ruled by a regime weirder
than Tehran’s – should be higher on the list. Even in Iran’s part
of the world, Pakistan should worry us more. Indeed, Pakistan
may harbor the greatest potential danger of all: Chances of a
coup or revolution deposing the Musharraf regime and installing
pro-Taliban Islamists are not trivial. If that happened, Al-
Qaeda’s chances of gaining access to nuclear weapons would
zoom up overnight. The Shia of Iran are the least likely to share
WMD with the Sunni jihadists who have been their bitter
enemies.”
Hott Spotts returns next week.
Brian Trumbore
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