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05/22/2008
Combating Terrorism
In the Mar./Apr. edition of The National Interest, Lee H.
Hamilton, Bruce Hoffman, Brian Michael Jenkins, Paul R. Pillar,
Xavier Rauffer, Walter Reich, and Fernando Reinares, members
of the Council on Global Terrorism, graded efforts thus far.
A – Superior Success
B – Important Gains
C – Muddling Through
D – Losing Meaningful Ground
F – Red Flag Alert
I. Combating Islamic Extremist Terrorism Overall Grade: D+
Al-Qaeda headquarters C
Al-Qaeda affiliated groups (e.g., Jemaah Islamiyah & Lashkar-e-
Taiba) C
Al-Qaeda seeded groups (e.g., London & Madrid bombing
culprits) D+
Al-Qaeda inspired groups (e.g., Hofstad Network & JFK Airport
attack plotters) D
Sympathizers D-
II. Improving U.S. & Coalition Counterterrorism Capabilities
Overall grade: C+
Reforming intelligence capabilities C+
Improving law-enforcement capabilities C
Transforming military capabilities C
Improving money-tracking capabilities C+
Cooperation & coordination between branches of
government B-
Cooperation & coordination between local, state and federal
government C+
Cooperation & coordination between allies B-
III. Creating an Effective Coalition to Fight Terrorism Overall
Grade: C
Creating effective, regional counterterrorism coalitions C
Enlisting great powers in the counterterrorism effort C-
Bringing Muslim nations into the war on terror D+
European Union-U.S. cooperation in the war on terror B-
Passage of effective laws to strengthen international
counterterrorism standards C+
Efforts to help willing but weak states better police territory and
deny terrorist groups safe havens C-
Deterring state sponsorship of terrorism C
IV. Preventing Terrorist Attack with Nukes, Dirty Bombs, Germs
& Chemical Overall Grade: C
Priority given to preventing terrorists from acquiring chemical,
biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN) weapons C+
Effectiveness of international counterproliferation policies C+
Efforts to secure nuclear-weapons materials in Russia C+
Efforts to stop CBRN technology transfers B-
Ability to locate and dismantle nuclear-proliferation
networks C
Ability to prevent WMD scientists from cooperating with
terrorists C
Attempts to deter North Korea from acquiring nuclear
weapons C+
Attempts to deter Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons D+
Effectiveness of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime D+
V. Protecting the U.S. Homeland Overall Grade: C
Effectiveness of the Department of Homeland Security C-
Increasing aviation security B-
Improving cargo screening C
Protecting U.S. borders C-
Improving the ability to track potential terrorists/dangerous cargo
traveling by air and sea C+
Protecting critical infrastructure C-
Increasing the security of mass transit C-
Preventing cyber attack C-
Improving emergency response to terrorist attack C+
VI. Balancing Security & Core Values Overall Grade: D-
Balance between expanded U.S. counterterrorism authority and
respect for civil liberties D
Appropriateness of domestic intelligence gathering in the United
States C-
Balance between due process and extraordinary threats D
Balance between international law and national-security
concerns D-
Balance between intelligence gathering through coercive
interrogation and respecting commitments against torture D-
Balance struck on these issues by partners in
counterterrorism D+
VII. Reversing Islamic Radicalization Overall Grade: D-
Preventing the export and spread of intolerant Wahhabism D-
Countering the impact of radical imams, mosques and
madrassas D
Combating the spread of radicalism in prisons D
Destroying bin Laden’s image as an Islamic hero D
Managing the Sunni-Shia divide within Islam to counter the
sway of extremists in both camps D
Supporting moderate and reformist Muslims to help them
counter radical idealogues in the struggle for Islam’s future C-
Minimizing the radicalization of second-generation
immigrants C-
Preventing terrorist use of the Internet for recruitment and
propaganda D-
VIII. High-Risk Areas Overall Grade: D-
Reforming autocratic regimes off the Middle East D-
Promoting the rise of elected, nonviolent political parties D-
Preventing takeovers of countries by violent extremists D+
Stemming high-risk areas from becoming hot beds of al-Qaeda-
motivated terrorism D
Denying sanctuary and safe havens D
IX. Shaping Long-Term Solutions Overall Grade: D
Addressing long-term causes of Islamic radicalization, be they
economic, religious, political or societal D-
Helping Muslims in the West assimilate D+
Implementing foreign-policy necessities while minimizing anger
in the Muslim world D-
Countering conspiracy theories and anti-Americanism with overt
and/or covert public diplomacy D+
Decreasing U.S. dependence on oil D-
X. Rating the Future Terrorist Threat Over the Next Five Years
Key: 1=Least Likely 5=Most Likely
Rate the probability that the greatest threat of Islamic extremism
will emanate from authoritarian societies in the Middle East 4
Rate the impact of ungoverned territories in weak or failed states
on the terrorist threat 4
Rate the chance of Iraq becoming a terrorist incubator, training
ground and networking haven like Afghanistan 4
Rate the likelihood that networks recruiting Islamic radicals for
war in Iraq and Afghanistan will be reversed to bring seasoned
terrorists back to the West 4
Rate the likelihood that terrorists and criminals will work more
closely together 3
Rate the danger posed by the emergence of new or renewed Shia
terrorism 4
Rate the likelihood that radical Islamic ideology and its
sympathizers will continue to spread in the short term and long
term 5
Rate the significance of the restive Islamic diaspora in the West
to the future terrorist threat 4
Rate the chance of al-Qaeda launching another successful 9/11-
type attack 4
Rate the chance that terrorists will use WMD against the United
States or its allies 3
Rate the chance that terrorists will explode a dirty bomb against
the United States or its allies 4
Rate the chance that the increase in suicide bombings will
continue and become a mainstay of Islamic terrorist attacks
against the United States and its allies 4
Hot Spots will return in two weeks.
Brian Trumbore
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