Hot Spots

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Hot Spots

07/22/2010

U.S.-China Relations

An issue that is flying under the radar is the joint U.S.-South Korean naval exercise that was to take place July 15 but has now been postponed for at least a few days. China sees the maneuvers as threatening while Washington and Seoul say it is about protecting the Korean Peninsula. China has a point, to an extent, but in no way is either the United States or South Korea out to threaten China, and Beijing has hardly been helpful when it comes to Pyongyang. The U.S. is, however, out to maintain its naval supremacy and this is where the problems arise.

Following are two editorials, written during the period July 11-July 16, by the Global Times, a Chinese paper that is basically a government mouthpiece. I peruse this source from time to time looking for economic news and came across these pieces. I post them without further opinion.

The eventuality that Beijing has to prepare for is close at hand. The delayed U.S.-South Korean naval exercise in the Yellow Sea is now slated for mid-July….

In their recent responses, several high-ranking Chinese navy officials have made it plain that China will not stay in ‘hands-off’ mode as the drill gets underway. For that will make the U.S. believe that China’s defense circle on the sea is small, and, therefore, U.S. fleets will be able to freely cruise over the Yellow Sea, East China Sea and South China Sea in the future.

Military experts have warned that if the joint drill really takes place off the western coast of South Korea, Chinese airplanes and warships will very likely go all the way out to closely watch the war game maneuvers. Within such proximity on not-so-clearly-marked international waters, any move that is considered hostile to the other side can willy-nilly trigger a rash reaction, which might escalate into the unexpected or the unforeseen.

One false move, one wrong interpretation, is all it would take for the best-planned exercises to go awry.

Wang Jisi, dean of the School of International Studies at Peking University, says he is most worried about another collision crisis like the one over the South China Sea in 2001, when a Chinese fighter jet crashed into a U.S. spy plane.

The impact of a crisis on that scale would be tremendous, making any dispute over trade or the yuan’s value between the two in recent years pale in comparison. Anti-U.S. sentiment will be reignited among Chinese people despite the recent affirmation of warmth in the relationship, and a significant fan following in China for the charismatic U.S. President Barack Obama.

With the growth of China’s economic power, the country will definitely extend its defense capability to the high seas. The U.S., far from trying to contain this assertiveness, should face up to the reality, and facilitate the Chinese navy to be peacefully integrated into the international system. This is China’s legitimate due, which it cannot be denied for long.

By the same token, China needs to be patient. The island chains in the western Pacific cannot block China from entering the open waters. But the country should move forward one step at a time, to show its confidence and to emphasize its goal of keeping peace.

The U.S. has long been a naval superpower, and will be understandably uneasy about accepting the fact that China is a growing power and can no longer keep silent when U.S. warships enter China’s sphere of influence.

Since both sides lack experience of contact over the seas, the two countries should learn to get along with each other. First, the U.S. must allow China space to explore. Second, the two navies need to increase exchanges to prevent further misunderstanding.

Tension is mounting over the U.S.-South Korean joint exercise. Beijing and Washington still have time, and leeway, to desist from moving toward a possible conflict on the Yellow Sea.

It is not surprising that a U.S. Defense Department spokesman insisted that Washington did not buckle under Beijing’s pressure, and that it was the Pentagon’s own decision to reconsider the location and the ships for the Yellow Sea naval exercise with South Korea.

The U.S. continued to play its military card to test China’s resilience when it announced Wednesday that Hillary Clinton and Robert Gates would meet their South Korean counterparts on July 21 to finalize details of the drill.

Even after reports that part of the drill may be held in the Sea of Japan, the Pentagon kept silent on whether it would involve the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier U.S. George Washington – a potential threat to Beijing if it enters the Yellow Sea connecting China and the Korean Peninsula.

The U.S. claims that the joint drill is to serve as a deterrent against North Korea after the sinking of a South Korean battleship. Yet it clearly knows that launching a war game off the western coast of South Korea will also be considered a hostile move against China.

There is no way Washington can reassure Beijing about its intent if it continues with its plan in the Yellow Sea.

Moreover, Beijing has become increasingly assertive in opposing any military activity near its borders.

As the sole superpower, U.S. battleships and military aircraft have been moving almost freely through open waters and skies across the globe, often trespassing disputed areas such as exclusive economic zones to spy on certain countries. More and more countries, including Russia, Brazil and India, have expressed their strong opposition against “free cruising” of U.S. battleships on their threshold.

China will be less tolerant of similar acts, though in the past the U.S. enjoyed relatively freer passage around Chinese territorial seas. Washington should no longer underestimate Beijing’s resolve to challenge U.S. military provocation.

As trade and financial ties between the two countries deepen, China will have much more leverage to launch counter measures. Growing nationalistic sentiment in China will also push the authorities to act tougher.

The drill has created wider awareness of maritime security issues. The Chinese people are now more determined than ever to support a bigger and stronger Chinese PLA navy to prevent any bullying.

The North Korean issue has seen some positive development. After the UN statement condemning the sinking of the South Korean battleship but not naming the culprit, North Korea responded quickly to arrange high-level talks with U.S. military representatives yesterday on the South-North border, and appeared willing to resume the Six-Party Talks.

Diplomacy works better than force. The sooner Washington understands this, the better the chance of the Korean Peninsula retreating from the brink. That will be more conducive to building trust between China and the U.S.

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