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09/15/2016

How China Sees Itself

Frank Ching had the following comments in a recent piece for the South China Morning Post.

[Excerpts]

There was a time when China tried hard to convince the world that its rise is peaceful.  That pretense was abandoned seven years ago when, in the wake of the “Great Recession,” China thought its time had come to claim its place as controlling “all under heaven,” or tianxia, in Asia.  Like all great powers in history, China’s emergence is accompanied not just by military expansion but also by assertion of its own law.

In China’s narrative, its rise is still peaceful.  The nation built military installations on reefs and rocks in the South China Sea simply because it claims to have owned them from time immemorial.  From the Chinese standpoint, the South China Sea is a core interest. There can be no backing down.

To justify its position on this and other issues, Beijing creates an imagined universe where, in the  words of Bill Hayton, the BBC specialist on the South China Sea, “they start from the position that everything China does is virtuous and correct and therefore that anyone who disagrees must be wrong.”  What China thinks is right must be the law. The day The Hague tribunal’s ruling on the Philippines’ South China Sea claims was made public, foreign minister Wang Yi called it a “farce” and said that China, by refusing to accept the ruling, was “upholding international rule of law.”

China has emerged as the dominant power.  Its neighbors have kept their mouths shut.  A statement released by foreign ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations did not mention the tribunal, though it did endorse rule of law.  The fact is that China is seen as the key to economic development in the region.  And while the U.S. talks about maintaining “primacy” in the military realm, China is already dominant in much of the region.

Contrary to commonly accepted views, China sees no need to challenge the U.S. militarily and wants to avoid such a confrontation unless pushed.  The U.S. is unlikely to push.  China, through its artificial islands in the South China Sea, can project its air and naval power throughout the area and check American bases in the Philippines. While other countries may still occupy a reef here or a rock there, China is in overall control.

Since 2013, when Manila launched its case, Beijing has called for bilateral talks instead.  The day the ruling was issued, Wang said: “Now the farce is over.  It is time that things come back to normal.”

China is getting its way.  The Philippines, under President Rodrigo Duterte, decided that war is not an option.  The alternative, in the new leader’s words is “peaceful talks.”  China and the Philippines, in effect, will agree to share economic resources.  Joint development is theoretically on the table.  Manila also hopes for vast inflows of Chinese investment.

The ruling won’t deter China from plans to increase its dominance of Southeast Asia and the larger region.  In its imagined world, the realization of Xi Jinping’s Chinese Dream will place China once again at the center of the world, after a couple of centuries of being disrupted by Western imperialism.  In the Chinese imagination, this is not subjugation of neighbors but simply restoration of the normal order.  To some, this is a return to the traditional concept of tianxia, with barbarians benefiting from Chinese civilization.

China’s leaders no longer refer to neighbors as barbarians, but they do recall that Confucian culture is embedded in many Asian countries and that the Chinese system of writing was borrowed by many, including Japan, Korea and Vietnam....

Of course, the biggest villain in the Chinese mind is the U.S.  Fu Ying, a spokesperson for the National People’s Congress, wrote recently that the problems in the South China Sea stem from 2009, when the Obama administration launched its rebalancing strategy. There is one problem with that explanation.  The rebalance wasn’t announced until two years later, in late 2011. Fu’s explanation, like much else, was part of the Chinese imagination, and in that imagination, all that matters is the central role of China.

Source: South China Morning Post

Hot Spots will return in a few weeks.

Brian Trumbore 



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Hot Spots

09/15/2016

How China Sees Itself

Frank Ching had the following comments in a recent piece for the South China Morning Post.

[Excerpts]

There was a time when China tried hard to convince the world that its rise is peaceful.  That pretense was abandoned seven years ago when, in the wake of the “Great Recession,” China thought its time had come to claim its place as controlling “all under heaven,” or tianxia, in Asia.  Like all great powers in history, China’s emergence is accompanied not just by military expansion but also by assertion of its own law.

In China’s narrative, its rise is still peaceful.  The nation built military installations on reefs and rocks in the South China Sea simply because it claims to have owned them from time immemorial.  From the Chinese standpoint, the South China Sea is a core interest. There can be no backing down.

To justify its position on this and other issues, Beijing creates an imagined universe where, in the  words of Bill Hayton, the BBC specialist on the South China Sea, “they start from the position that everything China does is virtuous and correct and therefore that anyone who disagrees must be wrong.”  What China thinks is right must be the law. The day The Hague tribunal’s ruling on the Philippines’ South China Sea claims was made public, foreign minister Wang Yi called it a “farce” and said that China, by refusing to accept the ruling, was “upholding international rule of law.”

China has emerged as the dominant power.  Its neighbors have kept their mouths shut.  A statement released by foreign ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations did not mention the tribunal, though it did endorse rule of law.  The fact is that China is seen as the key to economic development in the region.  And while the U.S. talks about maintaining “primacy” in the military realm, China is already dominant in much of the region.

Contrary to commonly accepted views, China sees no need to challenge the U.S. militarily and wants to avoid such a confrontation unless pushed.  The U.S. is unlikely to push.  China, through its artificial islands in the South China Sea, can project its air and naval power throughout the area and check American bases in the Philippines. While other countries may still occupy a reef here or a rock there, China is in overall control.

Since 2013, when Manila launched its case, Beijing has called for bilateral talks instead.  The day the ruling was issued, Wang said: “Now the farce is over.  It is time that things come back to normal.”

China is getting its way.  The Philippines, under President Rodrigo Duterte, decided that war is not an option.  The alternative, in the new leader’s words is “peaceful talks.”  China and the Philippines, in effect, will agree to share economic resources.  Joint development is theoretically on the table.  Manila also hopes for vast inflows of Chinese investment.

The ruling won’t deter China from plans to increase its dominance of Southeast Asia and the larger region.  In its imagined world, the realization of Xi Jinping’s Chinese Dream will place China once again at the center of the world, after a couple of centuries of being disrupted by Western imperialism.  In the Chinese imagination, this is not subjugation of neighbors but simply restoration of the normal order.  To some, this is a return to the traditional concept of tianxia, with barbarians benefiting from Chinese civilization.

China’s leaders no longer refer to neighbors as barbarians, but they do recall that Confucian culture is embedded in many Asian countries and that the Chinese system of writing was borrowed by many, including Japan, Korea and Vietnam....

Of course, the biggest villain in the Chinese mind is the U.S.  Fu Ying, a spokesperson for the National People’s Congress, wrote recently that the problems in the South China Sea stem from 2009, when the Obama administration launched its rebalancing strategy. There is one problem with that explanation.  The rebalance wasn’t announced until two years later, in late 2011. Fu’s explanation, like much else, was part of the Chinese imagination, and in that imagination, all that matters is the central role of China.

Source: South China Morning Post

Hot Spots will return in a few weeks.

Brian Trumbore