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Wall Street History
https://www.gofundme.com/s3h2w8
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04/02/2004
Rates of Return
The new 2004 Ibbotson Associates Yearbook is out and since I paid good money for it, and since all financial planners and brokers use it (at least their marketing departments do I know from experience), its time to throw out the historical facts.
Compound Annual Rates of Return by Decade
30s 40s 50s 60s 70s 80s 90s 00s
Large Cap Stocks..-0.1 .9.2 19.4 7.8 5.9 17.5..18.2..-5.3 Small Cap Stocks...1.4 20.7 16.9..15.5..11.5 15.8..15.1..13.3 Long-Term Govt. ..4.9 .3.2 -0.1 .1.4 5.5...12.6 8.8...10.8 Inter.-Term Govt. ..4.6 .1.8 .1.3 ..3.5...7.0 11.9 7.2 8.8 Treasury Bills .0.6 .0.4 .1.9 ..3.9...6.3 .8.9 .4.9 3.1 Inflation .-2.0 5.4 ..2.2 .2.5 7.4 5.1 .2.9 2.3
Notes:
00s 2000-2003 Large Cap S&P 500 Small Cap 5th capitalization quintile of stocks on NYSE, 1926- 81, various Dimensional Fund Advisors indices since 1982. Long-term govt. 20-year Treasury Inter.-term govt. 5-year Treasury Treasury bill 30 days Inflation CPI
1926-2003 Average Annual Return (geometric mean)
Large Cap Stocks 10.4 Small Cap Stocks 12.7 Long-Term Govt. 5.4 Inter.-Term Govt. 5.4 (yes, same) U.S. Treasury Bills..3.7 Inflation. ..3.0
And just for the heck of it, I thought Id take a look at how the S&P 500 has performed in the summer months during an election year; another attempt to beat the punch.
.June July August
2000 .+2.5 -1.6 ..+6.2 1996 .+0.4 -4.5 ..+2.1 1992 .-1.5 .+4.0 .-2.0 1988 +4.6 .-0.4 ..-3.3 1984 +2.2 .-1.4 +11.3 1980 +3.0 .+6.8 +1.3 1976 +4.3 .-0.7 .+0.1 1972 -2.1 ..+0.4 +3.9 1968 +1.1 .-1.7 .+1.6 1964 +1.8 .+2.0 -1.2 1960 +2.1 .-2.3 .+3.2
Source: Ibbotson Associates Inc., 2004 Yearbook
Wall Street History will return April 9.
Brian Trumbore
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