|
|
Wall Street History
https://www.gofundme.com/s3h2w8
|
03/03/2006
Fed Chairman Bernanke
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke gave his first major policy speech outside Washington on Feb. 24 at Princeton University where he once taught. Focusing on the importance of price stability, unlike his predecessor you can actually understand him.
Following are some key excerpts that may provide a clue as to future moves by the Bernanke Fed.
--
The mandate of the Federal Reserve System has changed since the institution opened its doors in 1914. When the System was founded, its principal legal purpose was to provide “an elastic currency,” by which was meant a supply of credit that could fluctuate as needed to meet seasonal and other changes in credit demand. In this regard, the Federal Reserve was an immediate success. The seasonal fluctuations that had characterized short- term interest rates before the founding of the Fed were almost immediately eliminated, removing a source of stress from the banking system and the economy. The Federal Reserve today retains important responsibilities for banking and financial stability, but its formal policy objectives have become much broader. Its current mandate, set formally in law in 1977 and reaffirmed in 2000, requires the Federal Reserve to pursue three objectives through its conduct of monetary policy: maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates.
One of my goals today is to consider the relationships among the three apparently disparate objectives of monetary policy. In particular, I will argue for what I believe has become the consensus view, that the mandated goals of price stability and maximum employment are almost entirely complementary. Central bankers, economists, and other knowledgeable observers around the world agree that price stability both contributes importantly to the economy’s growth and employment prospects in the longer term and moderates the variability of output and employment in the short to medium term .
Price stability plays a dual role in modern central banking: It is both an ‘end’ and a ‘means’ of monetary policy.
As one of the Fed’s mandate objectives, price stability itself is an end, or goal, of policy. Fundamentally, price stability preserves the integrity and purchasing power of the nation’s money. When prices are stable, people can hold money for transactions and other purposes without having to worry that inflation will eat away at the real value of their money balances. Equally important, stable prices allow people to rely on the dollar as a measure of value when making long-term contracts, engaging in long-term planning, or borrowing or lending for long periods. As economist Martin Feldstein has frequently pointed out, price stability also permits tax laws, accounting rules, and the like to be expressed in dollar terms without being subject to distortions arising from fluctuations in the value of money. Economists like to argue that money belongs in the same class as the wheel and the inclined plane among ancient inventions of great social utility. Price stability allows that invention to work with minimal friction .
Although price stability is an end of monetary policy, it is also a means by which policy can achieve its other objectives. In the jargon, price stability is both a goal and an intermediate target of policy. As I will discuss, when prices are stable, both economic growth and stability are likely to be enhanced, and long-term interest rates are likely to be moderate. Thus, even a policymaker who places relatively less weight on price stability as a goal in its own right should be careful to maintain price stability as a means of advancing other critical objectives.
Let me elaborate briefly on the relationship between price stability and the other two goals of monetary policy. First, price stability promotes efficiency and long-term growth by providing a monetary and financial environment in which economic decisions can be made and markets can operate without concern about unpredictable fluctuations in the purchasing power of money .High and variable inflation degrades the quality of the signals coming from the price system, as producers and consumers find it difficult to distinguish price changes arising from changes in product supplies and demands from changes arising from general inflation. Because prices constitute a market economy’s fundamental means of conveying information, the increased noise associated with high inflation erodes the effectiveness of the market system. High inflation also complicates long-term economic planning, creating incentives for households and firms to shorten their horizons and to spend resources in managing inflation risk rather than focusing on the most productive activities.
Research is not definitive about the extent to which price stability enhances economic growth Nevertheless, I am confident that the effect is positive and see the international experience as at least consistent with the view that, in combination with other sound policies, the maintenance of price stability has quite significant benefits for efficiency and growth. That view appears to be widely shared among policymakers, as governments around the world have made extensive efforts to bring inflation down over the past two decades or so, with substantial success .
[In looking at today’s oil price increases vs. those of the 1970s] Thirty years ago, the public’s expectations of inflation were not well anchored. With little confidence that the Fed would keep inflation low and stable, the public at that time reacted to the oil price increases by anticipating that inflation would rise still further. A destabilizing wage-price spiral ensued as firms and workers competed to “keep up” with inflation. The Fed, attempting to gain control of the deteriorating inflation situation, raised interest rates sharply; however, initially at least, these increases proved insufficient to control inflation or inflation expectations, and they added substantially to the volatility of output and employment. The episode highlights the crucial importance of keeping inflation expectations low and stable, which can be done only if inflation itself is low and stable.
By contrast, the oil price increases of recent years appear to have had only a limited effect on core inflation (that is, inflation in the prices of goods other than energy and food), nor do they appear to have generated significant macroeconomic volatility. Several factors account for the better performance of the economy in the recent episode, including improvements in energy efficiency and in the overall flexibility and resiliency of the economy. But, the crucial difference from the 1970s, in my view, is that today inflation expectations are low and stable (as shown, for example, by many surveys and a variety of financial indicators). Oil price increases in the past few years, unlike in the 1970s, have not fed through to any great extent into longer-term inflation expectations and core inflation, as the public has shown confidence that any increases in inflation will be temporary and that, in the long run, inflation will remain low. As a result, the Fed has not had to raise interest rates sharply as it did in the 1970s but instead has been able to pursue a policy that is more gradual and predictable. Of course, the relatively benign state of inflation expectations in a narrow range has been the product of Fed policies that have kept actual inflation low in recent years, clear communications of those policies, and an institutional commitment to price stability.
Price stability also contributes to the third component of the Fed’s mandate, the objective of moderate long-term interest rates. As first pointed out by the economist Irving Fisher, interest rates will tend to move in tandem with changes in expected inflation, as lenders require compensation for the loss in purchasing power of their principal over the period of the loan. When inflation is expected to be low, lenders will require less compensation, and thus interest rates will tend to be low as well. In addition, because price stability and the associated macroeconomic stability reduce the risks of holding long-term bonds and other securities, price stability may also reduce the premiums that lenders charge for bearing risk, lowering the overall level of rates.
Source: federalreserve.gov
--
Wall Street History returns next week.
Brian Trumbore
|
|
|