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Wall Street History
https://www.gofundme.com/s3h2w8
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07/07/2006
The Fed and the Market
I’ve been meaning to take a look at the Federal Reserve and the impact the now 17 consecutive interest rate increases have had on the equity market but, alas, upon review the verdict is basically zero; until Ben Bernanke’s May pronouncement, that is.
Otherwise, Wall Street hasn’t been spooked by the Fed, for the most part, despite all the inter-meeting chatter, primarily because under former Chairman Alan Greenspan the Fed did a great job of telegraphing its moves well ahead of time; thus there were few actual surprises. [Greenspan himself, however, was clearly surprised at the tepid reaction on the long end of the yield curve, which helped allow the real estate bubble to expand further at least some of us feel that way.]
Anyway, time is limited here so if I start on a project I have to run with the result, even if it isn’t earth-shattering.
Following are the dates of the Fed rate moves, all a quarter-point, the closing price of the S&P 500 for both the day before and the day of the Fed’s action, as well as the S&P’s closing values one and two weeks afterwards.
For example, the Fed increased the funds rate from 1 to 1.25 percent on June 30, 2004, the S&P 500 closed the day before at 1136 and 1140 the day of the move, was 1118 one week later and 1111 two weeks later.
6/30/04 .1.00-1.25 (1136) 1140 1118 / 1111
8/10/04 .1.25-1.50 (1065) 1079 1081 / 1096
9/21/04 .1.50-1.75 (1122) 1129 1110 / 1134
11/10/04...1.75-2.00 (1164) 1162 1181 / 1181
12/14/04 2.00-2.25 (1198) 1203 1205 / 1213
2/2/05 2.25-2.50 (1189) 1193 1191 / 1210
3/22/05 .2.50-2.75 (1183) 1171 1165 / 1181
5/3/05 ...2.75-3.00 (1162) 1161 1166 / 1173
6/30/05 .3.00-3.25 (1199) 1191 1197 / 1226
8/9/05 ...3.25-3.50 (1223) 1231 1219 / 1217
9/20/05 .3.50-3.75 (1231) 1221 1215 / 1214
11/1/05 .3.75-4.00 (1207) 1202 1218 / 1229
12/13/05...4.00-4.25 (1260) 1267 1259 / 1256
1/31/06 .4.25-4.50 (1285) 1280 1254 / 1275*
3/28/06 .4.50-4.75 (1301) 1293 1305 / 1286**
5/10/06 .4.75-5.00 (1325) 1322 1270 / 1258
6/29/06 .5.00-5.25 (1246) 1272 1274 ?
*Alan Greenspan’s last meeting as chairman.
**Ben Bernanke’s first meeting as chairman.
Source: Federalreserve.gov and my own collection of data.
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The State of the City
Each year “Crain’s New York Business” releases a slew of “market facts” on the state of New York City’s economy. Since New York is still the financial capital of the world (at least to us Americans), it’s obviously a pretty good barometer.
Miscellaneous Statistics
--New York City’s population:
White 34.4% Hispanic / Latino 28.6 Black 24.3 Asian 11.3
--Estimated Gross City Product $454 billion
--Employment:
Securities Industry 2000 (peak) 195,400; 2005 170,800
[Employment bottomed in 2003 at about 160,000.]
Leisure & Travel Industry 2000 256,700; 2005 276,800
--Visitor spending in NYC
2000 $17.0 billion 2002 $14.1 billion [post-9/11 low] 2005 $22.3 billion [est.]
--Market share for overseas travelers’ top U.S. destinations in 2004 (latest available data):
New York 25.4% Los Angeles 11.2 Miami 10.8 Orlando 9.6 Honolulu/Oahu 9.2 San Francisco 9.2 Las Vegas 7.7 Washington, D.C. 5.2 Chicago 4.6 Boston 4.1
--Leading Trade Partners thru New York / New Jersey ports:
Imports (2005)
1. China 2. Italy 3. Germany 4. India 5. Brazil
Exports
1. China 2. India 3. United Kingdom 4. Japan 5. Germany
--In 1998, imports from China thru New York / New Jersey ports approximated 1,000,000 metric tons. In 2005, it was close to 4,000,000. Over the same period, exports to China have climbed from 250,000 metric tons to 1,900,000.
--Manhattan Co-op Prices (Upper East Side)
Two-bedroom
2001 $834,000 2005 $1,345,000
--Lastly, I just found the following interesting.
Leading causes of death for men in NYC:
Heart disease 36.1% Cancer 24.1 Influenza / pneumonia 4.9 HIV 3.4 Diabetes 2.9 All others 28.6
Leading causes of death for women:
Heart disease 42.4% Cancer 23.3 Influenza / pneumonia 5.5 Cerebrovascular 3.4 Chronic lower respiratory disorders 3.1 All others 22.3
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Wall Street History returns next week.
Brian Trumbore
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