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Wall Street History

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01/02/2008

Market Returns / 2007

Various market returns and benchmarks ..

2007 [Total return, including dividends, for the Dow and S&P]

Dow Jones ......+8.9
S&P 500 . +5.5
Nasdaq ....+9.8
Tokyo .-11.1 [Nikkei]
London ...+3.8 [FTSE]
Frankfurt +22.3 [DAX]

12/31/07

Dow Jones 13264 52-wk range [14164-12050]
S&P 500 1468 .52-wk range [1565-1374]
Nasdaq ...2652 .52-wk range [2859-2340]

S&P 500 [Total return including dividends]

1995 +37.4
1996 +23.1
1997 +33.4
1998 +28.6
1999 +21.0
2000 .-9.1
2001 -11.9
2002 -22.1
2003 +28.7
2004 +10.9
2005 +4.9
2006 +15.8
2007 +5.5

Nasdaq

1995 +39.9
1996 +22.7
1997 +21.6
1998 +39.6
1999 +85.6
2000 -39.3
2001 -21.1
2002 -31.5
2003 +50.0
2004 +8.6
2005 +1.4
2006 +9.5
2007 +9.8

Stocks all-time highs

Dow Jones 14164 (10/9/07)
S&P 500 1565 (10/9/07)
Nasdaq ...5048 (3/10/00)

Gold

12/96 $368
12/97 $289
12/98 $288
12/99 $289
12/00 $272
12/01 $279
12/02 $347
12/03 $416
12/04 $438
12/05 $519
12/06 $638
12/07 $838

Oil (Light Sweet Crude)

12/99 $25.20
12/00 $26.80
12/01 $19.84
12/02 $31.20
12/03 $32.52
12/04 $43.45
12/05 $61.04
12/06 $61.05
12/07 $95.98

Energy all-time highs

Oil, $98.18 (11/23/07 West TX Intermediate; hit $99.29
intraday)
Unleaded gasoline futures, $2.92 (8/31/05 due to Katrina)
Natural gas futures, $15.37 (12/13/05 Katrina-related)

Interest Rates U.S. Treasury Yields

Date ..2-year .10-year

12/31/99 6.24 ..6.43

6/13/03 ..1.01 ..3.10 historic lows in yield

12/31/03 1.82 ..4.25

12/31/04 3.07 ..4.22

12/31/05 4.40 ..4.39

12/31/06 4.82 ..4.72

12/31/07 3.05..........4.03

---

The month of January supplies us with two interesting indicators;
the “first five days” early warning system and the full-month
barometer (which I’ll cover next week).

Employing the S&P 500, since 1950 the market has risen over
the first five days of the year 36 times. In 31 of these the market
has then proceeded to post full-year gains. [The record is more
mixed, 12 up / 10 down, in the 22 years where the market
declined the first five days.]

A sampling

S&P 500 Total return 1st 5 days / Jan.

1995 +37.4% .. +0.3%
1996 +23.1 . +0.4
1997 +33.4 . +1.0
1998 +28.6 . -1.5
1999 +21.0 . +3.7
2000 .. -9.1 .. -1.9
2001 . -11.9 . -1.8
2002 . -22.1 . +1.1
2003 +28.7 . +3.4
2004 +10.9 . +1.8
2005 ..+4.9 -2.1
2006 .+15.8 ..+3.4
2007 ..+5.5 -0.4

Source: “Stock Trader’s Almanac / 2006.” *Note: I have listed
the total return figures for the S&P 500 above, including
dividends. “Stock Trader’s Almanac” only uses the gross figure
for the index without including dividends.

Have a healthy and prosperous new year.

Wall Street History returns next week with more data.

Brian Trumbore



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-01/02/2008-      
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Wall Street History

01/02/2008

Market Returns / 2007

Various market returns and benchmarks ..

2007 [Total return, including dividends, for the Dow and S&P]

Dow Jones ......+8.9
S&P 500 . +5.5
Nasdaq ....+9.8
Tokyo .-11.1 [Nikkei]
London ...+3.8 [FTSE]
Frankfurt +22.3 [DAX]

12/31/07

Dow Jones 13264 52-wk range [14164-12050]
S&P 500 1468 .52-wk range [1565-1374]
Nasdaq ...2652 .52-wk range [2859-2340]

S&P 500 [Total return including dividends]

1995 +37.4
1996 +23.1
1997 +33.4
1998 +28.6
1999 +21.0
2000 .-9.1
2001 -11.9
2002 -22.1
2003 +28.7
2004 +10.9
2005 +4.9
2006 +15.8
2007 +5.5

Nasdaq

1995 +39.9
1996 +22.7
1997 +21.6
1998 +39.6
1999 +85.6
2000 -39.3
2001 -21.1
2002 -31.5
2003 +50.0
2004 +8.6
2005 +1.4
2006 +9.5
2007 +9.8

Stocks all-time highs

Dow Jones 14164 (10/9/07)
S&P 500 1565 (10/9/07)
Nasdaq ...5048 (3/10/00)

Gold

12/96 $368
12/97 $289
12/98 $288
12/99 $289
12/00 $272
12/01 $279
12/02 $347
12/03 $416
12/04 $438
12/05 $519
12/06 $638
12/07 $838

Oil (Light Sweet Crude)

12/99 $25.20
12/00 $26.80
12/01 $19.84
12/02 $31.20
12/03 $32.52
12/04 $43.45
12/05 $61.04
12/06 $61.05
12/07 $95.98

Energy all-time highs

Oil, $98.18 (11/23/07 West TX Intermediate; hit $99.29
intraday)
Unleaded gasoline futures, $2.92 (8/31/05 due to Katrina)
Natural gas futures, $15.37 (12/13/05 Katrina-related)

Interest Rates U.S. Treasury Yields

Date ..2-year .10-year

12/31/99 6.24 ..6.43

6/13/03 ..1.01 ..3.10 historic lows in yield

12/31/03 1.82 ..4.25

12/31/04 3.07 ..4.22

12/31/05 4.40 ..4.39

12/31/06 4.82 ..4.72

12/31/07 3.05..........4.03

---

The month of January supplies us with two interesting indicators;
the “first five days” early warning system and the full-month
barometer (which I’ll cover next week).

Employing the S&P 500, since 1950 the market has risen over
the first five days of the year 36 times. In 31 of these the market
has then proceeded to post full-year gains. [The record is more
mixed, 12 up / 10 down, in the 22 years where the market
declined the first five days.]

A sampling

S&P 500 Total return 1st 5 days / Jan.

1995 +37.4% .. +0.3%
1996 +23.1 . +0.4
1997 +33.4 . +1.0
1998 +28.6 . -1.5
1999 +21.0 . +3.7
2000 .. -9.1 .. -1.9
2001 . -11.9 . -1.8
2002 . -22.1 . +1.1
2003 +28.7 . +3.4
2004 +10.9 . +1.8
2005 ..+4.9 -2.1
2006 .+15.8 ..+3.4
2007 ..+5.5 -0.4

Source: “Stock Trader’s Almanac / 2006.” *Note: I have listed
the total return figures for the S&P 500 above, including
dividends. “Stock Trader’s Almanac” only uses the gross figure
for the index without including dividends.

Have a healthy and prosperous new year.

Wall Street History returns next week with more data.

Brian Trumbore