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Wall Street History

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01/18/2008

Presidential Elections and Equity Returns

Historically, the numbers have painted a powerful picture. Of
course the biggest reason for the positive bias is the fact that
Congress and the administration are typically priming the fiscal
pumps to ensure that all of us feel good when we enter the voting
booth. Most of the time, “It’s about the economy, stupid” has a
truthful ring to it and it’s certainly looking like 2008 is more of
the same.

Returns [total return for S&P]

Year ..S&P 500 ..Small Caps

2008 ...??...............??
2007 +5.5 -5.2

2004 ...+10.9 ..+18.4
2003 ...+28.7 ..+60.7

2000 -9.1.............-3.6
1999 ...+21.1..........+29.8

1996 ...+23.1..........+17.6
1995 ...+37.4..........+34.5

1992 +7.7...........+23.4
1991 ...+30.6..........+44.6

1988 ...+16.8..........+22.9
1987 +5.2............-9.3

1984 +6.3............-6.7
1983 ...+22.5..........+39.7

1980 ...+32.4..........+39.9
1979 ...+18.4..........+43.5

1976 +23.8.........+57.4
1975 +37.2.........+52.8

1972 +19.0..........+4.4
1971 +14.3.........+16.5

1968 +11.1.........+36.0
1967 +24.0.........+83.6

1964 +16.5.........+23.5
1963 +22.8.........+23.6

1960 ..+0.5 ..-3.3
1959 +12.0.........+16.4

1956 .+6.6...........+4.3
1955 +31.6.........+20.4

1952 +18.4..........+3.0
1951 +24.0..........+7.8

1948 +5.5............-2.1
1947 +5.7............+0.9

1944 ....+19.8.........+53.7
1943 ....+25.9.........+88.4

1940 .....-9.8............-5.2
1939 .-0.4............+0.4

1936 .+33.9........+64.8
1935 .+47.7........+40.2

[Sources: Ibbotson Associates Yearbook, Morningstar]

Ibbotson has employed various indices in calculating small cap
returns since 1926, namely the fifth capitalization quintile of
stocks on the New York Stock Exchange for 1926-81,
Dimensional Fund Advisors’ Small Company Fund, 1982-2001,
and, since April 2001, the DFA Micro Cap Fund.

Wall Street History returns next week.

Brian Trumbore



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-01/18/2008-      
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Wall Street History

01/18/2008

Presidential Elections and Equity Returns

Historically, the numbers have painted a powerful picture. Of
course the biggest reason for the positive bias is the fact that
Congress and the administration are typically priming the fiscal
pumps to ensure that all of us feel good when we enter the voting
booth. Most of the time, “It’s about the economy, stupid” has a
truthful ring to it and it’s certainly looking like 2008 is more of
the same.

Returns [total return for S&P]

Year ..S&P 500 ..Small Caps

2008 ...??...............??
2007 +5.5 -5.2

2004 ...+10.9 ..+18.4
2003 ...+28.7 ..+60.7

2000 -9.1.............-3.6
1999 ...+21.1..........+29.8

1996 ...+23.1..........+17.6
1995 ...+37.4..........+34.5

1992 +7.7...........+23.4
1991 ...+30.6..........+44.6

1988 ...+16.8..........+22.9
1987 +5.2............-9.3

1984 +6.3............-6.7
1983 ...+22.5..........+39.7

1980 ...+32.4..........+39.9
1979 ...+18.4..........+43.5

1976 +23.8.........+57.4
1975 +37.2.........+52.8

1972 +19.0..........+4.4
1971 +14.3.........+16.5

1968 +11.1.........+36.0
1967 +24.0.........+83.6

1964 +16.5.........+23.5
1963 +22.8.........+23.6

1960 ..+0.5 ..-3.3
1959 +12.0.........+16.4

1956 .+6.6...........+4.3
1955 +31.6.........+20.4

1952 +18.4..........+3.0
1951 +24.0..........+7.8

1948 +5.5............-2.1
1947 +5.7............+0.9

1944 ....+19.8.........+53.7
1943 ....+25.9.........+88.4

1940 .....-9.8............-5.2
1939 .-0.4............+0.4

1936 .+33.9........+64.8
1935 .+47.7........+40.2

[Sources: Ibbotson Associates Yearbook, Morningstar]

Ibbotson has employed various indices in calculating small cap
returns since 1926, namely the fifth capitalization quintile of
stocks on the New York Stock Exchange for 1926-81,
Dimensional Fund Advisors’ Small Company Fund, 1982-2001,
and, since April 2001, the DFA Micro Cap Fund.

Wall Street History returns next week.

Brian Trumbore