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08/29/2008

Election Years

*Bull/bear readings a/o 9/3...37.8/40.0 [Source: Chartcraft / Investors Intelligence]

Since January 1950, September has been the worst month for equities, as measured by the S&P 500, off an average 0.6%, while October, despite its reputation for upheaval, has a solid average return of 0.9%. 

But what happens during election years? See below. [S&P 500 returns, not including dividends.] 

             Sept.       Oct.       Full year 

1952     -2.0        -0.1          +11.8 

1956     -4.5        +0.5          +2.6 

1960     -6.0        -0.2            -3.0 

1964     +2.9       +0.8         +13.0 
 
1968     +3.9       +0.7          +7.7 
 
1972     -0.5        +0.9         +15.6 
 
1976     +2.3       -2.2          +19.1 

1980     +2.5       +1.6         +25.8 
 
1984     -0.3        -0.01         +1.4  
 
1988     +4.0       +2.6         +12.4 
 
1992     +0.9       +0.2          +4.5 
 
1996     +5.4       +2.6        +20.3 
 
2000     -5.3        -0.5         -10.1 
 
2004     +0.9       +1.4          +9.0 

Source: 2008 Stock Trader’s Almanac, Jeffrey A. Hirsch & Yale Hirsch

Wall Street History returns Sept. 5.
 
Brian Trumbore


 
 



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Wall Street History

08/29/2008

Election Years

*Bull/bear readings a/o 9/3...37.8/40.0 [Source: Chartcraft / Investors Intelligence]

Since January 1950, September has been the worst month for equities, as measured by the S&P 500, off an average 0.6%, while October, despite its reputation for upheaval, has a solid average return of 0.9%. 

But what happens during election years? See below. [S&P 500 returns, not including dividends.] 

             Sept.       Oct.       Full year 

1952     -2.0        -0.1          +11.8 

1956     -4.5        +0.5          +2.6 

1960     -6.0        -0.2            -3.0 

1964     +2.9       +0.8         +13.0 
 
1968     +3.9       +0.7          +7.7 
 
1972     -0.5        +0.9         +15.6 
 
1976     +2.3       -2.2          +19.1 

1980     +2.5       +1.6         +25.8 
 
1984     -0.3        -0.01         +1.4  
 
1988     +4.0       +2.6         +12.4 
 
1992     +0.9       +0.2          +4.5 
 
1996     +5.4       +2.6        +20.3 
 
2000     -5.3        -0.5         -10.1 
 
2004     +0.9       +1.4          +9.0 

Source: 2008 Stock Trader’s Almanac, Jeffrey A. Hirsch & Yale Hirsch

Wall Street History returns Sept. 5.
 
Brian Trumbore