Historically, the September-October time period is known for historic market bottoms, tops, and crashes. Just in the past ten years, the S&P 500 hit a key cycle low of 776 on Oct. 9, 2002, and then exactly five years later, Oct. 9, 2007, hit its all-time high of 1565; the latter a figure that may take awhile to surpass given today’s S&P at around 1000, after bottoming at 676 this past March 9 on a closing basis.
Since 1950, though, specifically Jan. 1950-April 2008, September was up just 25 times and down 32 when it comes to the S&P 500 [33 including Sept. ‘08], with an average decline of 0.5%, the worst month for the index. October, though, despite high-profile crashes in 1929 and 1987, for starters, is up an average 0.9% over the same period, with 35 up and 23 down [24 including Oct. ‘08]*
*The return figures are per the 2009 Stock Trader’s Almanac. Obviously, they are somewhat worse when you look at the Sept. / Oct. return figures for 2008, but these were not included in the Almanac’s formal reporting period of 1/50-4/08.
Nasdaq, which had its inception in January 1971, has witnessed an average return of -0.7% for September thru 4/08, while October is up 0.8%.
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Wall Street History
09/04/2009
September and October
Historically, the September-October time period is known for historic market bottoms, tops, and crashes. Just in the past ten years, the S&P 500 hit a key cycle low of 776 on Oct. 9, 2002, and then exactly five years later, Oct. 9, 2007, hit its all-time high of 1565; the latter a figure that may take awhile to surpass given today’s S&P at around 1000, after bottoming at 676 this past March 9 on a closing basis.
Since 1950, though, specifically Jan. 1950-April 2008, September was up just 25 times and down 32 when it comes to the S&P 500 [33 including Sept. ‘08], with an average decline of 0.5%, the worst month for the index. October, though, despite high-profile crashes in 1929 and 1987, for starters, is up an average 0.9% over the same period, with 35 up and 23 down [24 including Oct. ‘08]*
*The return figures are per the 2009 Stock Trader’s Almanac. Obviously, they are somewhat worse when you look at the Sept. / Oct. return figures for 2008, but these were not included in the Almanac’s formal reporting period of 1/50-4/08.
Nasdaq, which had its inception in January 1971, has witnessed an average return of -0.7% for September thru 4/08, while October is up 0.8%.
