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01/29/2010

China

China’s economy has been the driver in terms of bringing the world out of its near depression. In the fourth quarter it grew 10.7% compared with the same period a year earlier so I thought I’d note just how strong China’s economy, soon to pass Japan as second-largest in the world, has been over the past five years. The source of the data is Bloomberg and the Financial Times.

China’s GDP Growth…year-on-year (%)

Q4/2009…10.7
Q3/2009….9.1
Q2/2009….7.9
Q1/2009….6.1
Q4/2008….6.8
Q3/2008….9.0
Q2/2008…10.1
Q1/2008…10.6
Q4/2007…11.2
Q3/2007…11.5
Q2/2007…12.6
Q1/2007…13.0
Q4/2006…10.4
Q3/2006…10.6
Q2/2006…11.5
Q1/2006…11.4
Q4/2005….9.9
Q3/2005….9.8
Q2/2005…10.1
Q1/2005…10.5

The government is worried that the economy is overheating, particularly in the housing sector where prices have been skyrocketing in some of the major cities such as Beijing and Shanghai (though much less so in rural areas). Thus there is lots of talk of tightening monetary policy and short-term rates have been rising, slightly, though should inflation become more of an issue than it currently is the government will slam on the brakes hard; inflation being enemy number one for the Communist government as rising prices stir the masses more than anything else.

I also have to note, though, in looking at the above numbers that you have to remember the growth-recession dividing line is really around the 8% mark, hard as it is to believe, because it is at that level that most experts say the economy can generate jobs for those leaving the rural areas for the cities, an ongoing process, along with any growth in population. For the United States that figure is more in the 2.0% to 2.5% area. Growth at or under 2% in the U.S. often still feels like a recession.

Wall Street History returns next week.
Brian Trumbore



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Wall Street History

01/29/2010

China

China’s economy has been the driver in terms of bringing the world out of its near depression. In the fourth quarter it grew 10.7% compared with the same period a year earlier so I thought I’d note just how strong China’s economy, soon to pass Japan as second-largest in the world, has been over the past five years. The source of the data is Bloomberg and the Financial Times.

China’s GDP Growth…year-on-year (%)

Q4/2009…10.7
Q3/2009….9.1
Q2/2009….7.9
Q1/2009….6.1
Q4/2008….6.8
Q3/2008….9.0
Q2/2008…10.1
Q1/2008…10.6
Q4/2007…11.2
Q3/2007…11.5
Q2/2007…12.6
Q1/2007…13.0
Q4/2006…10.4
Q3/2006…10.6
Q2/2006…11.5
Q1/2006…11.4
Q4/2005….9.9
Q3/2005….9.8
Q2/2005…10.1
Q1/2005…10.5

The government is worried that the economy is overheating, particularly in the housing sector where prices have been skyrocketing in some of the major cities such as Beijing and Shanghai (though much less so in rural areas). Thus there is lots of talk of tightening monetary policy and short-term rates have been rising, slightly, though should inflation become more of an issue than it currently is the government will slam on the brakes hard; inflation being enemy number one for the Communist government as rising prices stir the masses more than anything else.

I also have to note, though, in looking at the above numbers that you have to remember the growth-recession dividing line is really around the 8% mark, hard as it is to believe, because it is at that level that most experts say the economy can generate jobs for those leaving the rural areas for the cities, an ongoing process, along with any growth in population. For the United States that figure is more in the 2.0% to 2.5% area. Growth at or under 2% in the U.S. often still feels like a recession.

Wall Street History returns next week.
Brian Trumbore