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Wall Street History

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08/27/2010

September and October

Time for our annual look at the September-October time period, which is known for historic market bottoms, tops, and crashes. Just in the past ten years, the S&P 500 hit a key cycle low of 776 on Oct. 9, 2002, and then exactly five years later, Oct. 9, 2007, hit its all-time high of 1565; the latter a figure that may take awhile to surpass given today’s S&P at around 1100, after bottoming at 676, March 9, 2009, on a closing basis.

Since 1950, though, specifically Jan. 1950-April 2009, September was up just 25 times and down 33, when it comes to the S&P 500, with an average decline of 0.7%, the worst month for the index. October, though, despite high-profile crashes in 1929 and 1987, for starters, is up an average 0.6% over the same period, with 35 up and 24 down.

Nasdaq, which had its inception in January 1971, has witnessed an average return of -1.0% for September thru 4/09, while October is up 0.3%.

S&P 500 monthly percentage returns…September… October

1999… -2.9 [Sept.]… +6.3 [Oct.]
2000… -5.3... -0.5
2001… -8.2... +1.8
2002… -11.0… +8.6
2003… -1.2… +5.5
2004… +0.9… +1.4
2005… +0.7… -1.8
2006… +2.5… +3.2
2007… +3.6… +1.5
2008… -9.1-16.9
2009… +3.6… -2.0

*During a midterm election year, we see the following:

S&P 500… -0.9 [Sept.]… +3.3 [Oct.]
Nasdaq….. -2.2… +4.1

Sources: 2010 Stock Trader’s Almanac, edited by Jeffrey A. Hirsch & Yale Hirsch; Standandpoors.com

Wall Street History will return in two weeks.

Brian Trumbore



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-08/27/2010-      
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Wall Street History

08/27/2010

September and October

Time for our annual look at the September-October time period, which is known for historic market bottoms, tops, and crashes. Just in the past ten years, the S&P 500 hit a key cycle low of 776 on Oct. 9, 2002, and then exactly five years later, Oct. 9, 2007, hit its all-time high of 1565; the latter a figure that may take awhile to surpass given today’s S&P at around 1100, after bottoming at 676, March 9, 2009, on a closing basis.

Since 1950, though, specifically Jan. 1950-April 2009, September was up just 25 times and down 33, when it comes to the S&P 500, with an average decline of 0.7%, the worst month for the index. October, though, despite high-profile crashes in 1929 and 1987, for starters, is up an average 0.6% over the same period, with 35 up and 24 down.

Nasdaq, which had its inception in January 1971, has witnessed an average return of -1.0% for September thru 4/09, while October is up 0.3%.

S&P 500 monthly percentage returns…September… October

1999… -2.9 [Sept.]… +6.3 [Oct.]
2000… -5.3... -0.5
2001… -8.2... +1.8
2002… -11.0… +8.6
2003… -1.2… +5.5
2004… +0.9… +1.4
2005… +0.7… -1.8
2006… +2.5… +3.2
2007… +3.6… +1.5
2008… -9.1-16.9
2009… +3.6… -2.0

*During a midterm election year, we see the following:

S&P 500… -0.9 [Sept.]… +3.3 [Oct.]
Nasdaq….. -2.2… +4.1

Sources: 2010 Stock Trader’s Almanac, edited by Jeffrey A. Hirsch & Yale Hirsch; Standandpoors.com

Wall Street History will return in two weeks.

Brian Trumbore