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12/10/2010

Seasonality...December and January

December traditionally has been known as the month where we get a Santa Claus rally, but in actuality, both November and December are the best for the S&P 500, up 1.6% each since 1950.

Then you have the saying that “as January goes so goes the market” and January has an average S&P return of 1.0%.

But I thought we’d take a look at the last ten years for both the S&P and Nasdaq and you can draw your own conclusions. Mine is there are no seasonality trends that work these days, owing in no small part to the global, 24/7 nature of the markets compared to even 15-20 years ago.

S&P 500……Dec. / Jan. returns…return for the year [S&P only]

2009/2010…+1.8…-3.7…?
2008/2009…+0.8…-8.6…[+23.5]
2007/2008…-0.9…-6.1…[-38.5]
2006/2007…+1.3…+1.4…[+3.5]
2005/2006…-0.1…+2.5…[+13.6]
2004/2005…+3.2…-2.5…[+3.0]
2003/2004…+5.1…+1.7…[+9.0]
2002/2003…-6.0…-2.7…[+26.4]
2001/2002…+0.8…-1.6…[-23.4]
2000/2001…+0.4…+3.5…[-13.0]

Nasdaq

2009/2010…+5.8…-5.4…?
2008/2009…+2.7…-6.4
2007/2008…-0.3…-9.9
2006/2007…-0.7…+2.0
2005/2006…-1.2…+4.6
2004/2005…+3.7…-5.2
2003/2004…+2.2…+3.1
2002/2003…-9.7…-1.1
2001/2002…+1.0…-0.8
2000/2001…-4.9…+12.2

Source for data: “2011 Stock Trader’s Almanac,” edited by Jeffrey A. Hirsch & Yale Hirsch

Wall Street History will return in two weeks.

Brian Trumbore
 



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-12/10/2010-      
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Wall Street History

12/10/2010

Seasonality...December and January

December traditionally has been known as the month where we get a Santa Claus rally, but in actuality, both November and December are the best for the S&P 500, up 1.6% each since 1950.

Then you have the saying that “as January goes so goes the market” and January has an average S&P return of 1.0%.

But I thought we’d take a look at the last ten years for both the S&P and Nasdaq and you can draw your own conclusions. Mine is there are no seasonality trends that work these days, owing in no small part to the global, 24/7 nature of the markets compared to even 15-20 years ago.

S&P 500……Dec. / Jan. returns…return for the year [S&P only]

2009/2010…+1.8…-3.7…?
2008/2009…+0.8…-8.6…[+23.5]
2007/2008…-0.9…-6.1…[-38.5]
2006/2007…+1.3…+1.4…[+3.5]
2005/2006…-0.1…+2.5…[+13.6]
2004/2005…+3.2…-2.5…[+3.0]
2003/2004…+5.1…+1.7…[+9.0]
2002/2003…-6.0…-2.7…[+26.4]
2001/2002…+0.8…-1.6…[-23.4]
2000/2001…+0.4…+3.5…[-13.0]

Nasdaq

2009/2010…+5.8…-5.4…?
2008/2009…+2.7…-6.4
2007/2008…-0.3…-9.9
2006/2007…-0.7…+2.0
2005/2006…-1.2…+4.6
2004/2005…+3.7…-5.2
2003/2004…+2.2…+3.1
2002/2003…-9.7…-1.1
2001/2002…+1.0…-0.8
2000/2001…-4.9…+12.2

Source for data: “2011 Stock Trader’s Almanac,” edited by Jeffrey A. Hirsch & Yale Hirsch

Wall Street History will return in two weeks.

Brian Trumbore