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08/23/2013

Revised U.S. Economic Growth Figures

A few weeks ago, the Bureau of Economic Analysis revised its estimates of gross domestic product going back to 1929, which it does every five years or so. The big change this time was the recognition of the value of intellectual property (including syndication fees on a program like ‘Seinfeld’), and the inclusion of research and development into the equations of U.S. economic output.

Most of the numbers have thus been revised upward, but they also point out just how lousy the past ten years, and four, have been in relation to history. Essentially, 2% growth vs. the historic 3%, and that translates into far fewer jobs than would have otherwise been the case in a more vigorous economy.

To wit:

Avenue Annual GDP Growth

1929-2012...3.3%
1959-2012...3.4
2002-2012...1.8
2009-2012...2.4

Quarterly GDP Growth

QIV 2012...0.1
Q1 2013.....1.1
QII 2013.....1.7*

*This figure is expected to be revised upwards given some of the trade data that came in after the initial flash estimate on growth.

But for the archives...some more specific data

Annualized GDP Growth

2002...1.8%
2003...2.8
2004...3.8
2005...3.4
2006...2.7
2007...1.8
2008... -0.3
2009... -2.8
2010...2.5
2011...1.8
2012...2.8

And recent quarterly growth, annualized and seasonally adjusted

Q1 07...0.3
Q2 07...3.1
Q3 07...2.7
Q4 07...1.5
Q1 08... -2.7
Q2 08...2.0
Q3 08... -2.0
Q4 08... -8.3
Q1 09... -5.4
Q2 09... -0.4
Q3 09...1.3
Q4 09...3.9
Q1 10...1.6
Q2 10...3.9
Q3 10...2.8
Q4 10...2.8
Q1 11... -1.3
Q2 11...3.2
Q3 11...1.4
Q4 11...4.9
Q1 12...3.7
Q2 12...1.2
Q3 12...2.8
Q4 12...0.1
Q1 13...1.1
Q2 13...1.7

The total GDP, by the way, is now over $16.6 trillion, so divide the budget deficit into that to get the percentages bandied about in the press. [And also items such as total long-term debt held by the government.]

Sources: bea.gov; Wall Street Journal

Wall Street History returns in two weeks.

Brian Trumbore

 



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-08/23/2013-      
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Wall Street History

08/23/2013

Revised U.S. Economic Growth Figures

A few weeks ago, the Bureau of Economic Analysis revised its estimates of gross domestic product going back to 1929, which it does every five years or so. The big change this time was the recognition of the value of intellectual property (including syndication fees on a program like ‘Seinfeld’), and the inclusion of research and development into the equations of U.S. economic output.

Most of the numbers have thus been revised upward, but they also point out just how lousy the past ten years, and four, have been in relation to history. Essentially, 2% growth vs. the historic 3%, and that translates into far fewer jobs than would have otherwise been the case in a more vigorous economy.

To wit:

Avenue Annual GDP Growth

1929-2012...3.3%
1959-2012...3.4
2002-2012...1.8
2009-2012...2.4

Quarterly GDP Growth

QIV 2012...0.1
Q1 2013.....1.1
QII 2013.....1.7*

*This figure is expected to be revised upwards given some of the trade data that came in after the initial flash estimate on growth.

But for the archives...some more specific data

Annualized GDP Growth

2002...1.8%
2003...2.8
2004...3.8
2005...3.4
2006...2.7
2007...1.8
2008... -0.3
2009... -2.8
2010...2.5
2011...1.8
2012...2.8

And recent quarterly growth, annualized and seasonally adjusted

Q1 07...0.3
Q2 07...3.1
Q3 07...2.7
Q4 07...1.5
Q1 08... -2.7
Q2 08...2.0
Q3 08... -2.0
Q4 08... -8.3
Q1 09... -5.4
Q2 09... -0.4
Q3 09...1.3
Q4 09...3.9
Q1 10...1.6
Q2 10...3.9
Q3 10...2.8
Q4 10...2.8
Q1 11... -1.3
Q2 11...3.2
Q3 11...1.4
Q4 11...4.9
Q1 12...3.7
Q2 12...1.2
Q3 12...2.8
Q4 12...0.1
Q1 13...1.1
Q2 13...1.7

The total GDP, by the way, is now over $16.6 trillion, so divide the budget deficit into that to get the percentages bandied about in the press. [And also items such as total long-term debt held by the government.]

Sources: bea.gov; Wall Street Journal

Wall Street History returns in two weeks.

Brian Trumbore