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Wall Street History
https://www.gofundme.com/s3h2w8
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11/05/1999
The Market and Election/ Post-Election Years
Soon you will begin to see some articles detailing market
performance in Presidential election years. So I thought why not
scoop everyone and do it early as another free service of S&N?
As you can quickly observe, the market, as measured by the S&P
500, has not had a down election year since 1940. When it
comes to the first year of a new term, however, the performance
is decidedly mixed, excluding the 1982-1999 bull market.
Year Prez Cong. S&P Year Prez Cong. S&P
2000 D R ----- 2001 ----- ----- -----
1996 D R +23.1 1997 D R +33.4
1992 R D +07.7 1993 D D +10.0
1988 R D +16.8 1989 R D +31.5
1984 R S +06.3 1985 R S +32.2
1980 D D +32.4 1981 R S -04.9
1976 R D +23.8 1977 D D -07.2
1972 R D +19.0 1973 R D -14.7
1968 D D +11.1 1969 R D -08.5
1964 D D +16.5 1965 D D +12.5
1960 R D +00.5 1961 D D +26.9
1956 R D +06.6 1957 R D -10.8
1952 D D +18.4 1953 R R -01.0
1948 D R +05.5 1949 D D +18.8
1944 D D +19.8 1945 D D +36.4
1940 D D -09.8 1941 D D -11.6
1936 D D +33.9 1937 D D -35.0
1932 R R -08.2 1933 D D +54.0
1928 R R +43.6 1929 R R -08.4
*S means Democratic House, Republican Senate.
From 1982 through 1998, the S&P has had only one down year,
1990 (-3.2%). Taking out this period of time, between 1928 and
1981 (54 years), the S&P declined 19 years, or 35.2% of the
time. In contrast, 9 of the 14 post-election years between 1929
and 1981 were negative, 64.3%.
Sources: Ibbotson Associates; "The Presidents," by Henry Graff.
Brian Trumbore
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