03/18/2016
Seven Years After the Market Low
[Posted 3/14]
With the market’s recent 7-year anniversary of the low on March 9, 2009, it’s a good time to look at the returns and compare a few statistics for the period 3/9/09 to 3/9/16, or close to it. I’m using figures from a USA TODAY article by Adam Shell, as well as from my own data bank.
From S&P Global Market Intelligence; Karl Gelles / USA TODAY
Yearly returns on the S&P 500 since 3/9/09
Year 1... 68.6%
Year 2... 15.7%
Year 3...3.9%
Year 4... 13.2%
Year 5...21.1%
Year 6...10.7%
Year... -4.8%
Top 5 Bull Markets
Start date (number of months)
Oct. 11, 1990 (113.4)... +417%
June 1, 1932 (57.1)... +324.5%
June 14, 1949 (85.6)... +266.3%
Aug. 12, 1982 (60.4)... +228.8%
March 9, 2009 to March 8, 2016 (84.0)... +215.0*
*Based on current bull market peak of 2130 on May 21, 2015
If the current bull market doesn’t reach a new peak above 2130, and instead drops 20% or more from that level, then the official end of the bull market reverts to May 21, 2015. We were down as much as 15% intraday in February, but have rallied back strongly as of this writing, 3/14/16.
Using my own data....
As some of you know I keep weekly tabs on various barometers, including oil and gold, international equity benchmarks and sentiment readings.
March 6, 2009, was a Friday, with the closing low then Monday, March 9, so using weekly figures for 3/6/09 and 3/11/16....
Tokyo Nikkei... 7173 (3/6/09)... 16938 (3/11/16)
London FTSE... 3530... 6139
Oil... $45.60... $38.50 (West Texas Intermediate)
Gold... $940... $1249
10-yr. U.S. Treasury Yield... 2.89% (3/9/09)... 1.90% (3/9/16)
Bull / Bear reading... 26.4 / 47.2 (3/4/09)... 39.4 / 35.4 (3/09/16) [Investors Intelligence...released Wednesday mornings]
Wall Street History will return in two weeks.
Brian Trumbore
