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Wall Street History

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09/30/2016

The Election and Market Returns

[Posted 9/26/16]

Following are the market returns in the immediate aftermath of our last ten presidential elections.  There are no broad-based conclusions one can make, as market reaction depended on many different factors, such as in 2008 we were in the midst of the financial crisis, while November 2000, we had major uncertainty you’ll recall over who actually won.

On the other hand, Wall Street celebrated in a big way when Ronald Reagan was first elected in 1980.

I guess one thing you can say is that 7 of the 10 years, whatever the performance was in November, it was reversed in December.

Percentage returns as measured by the S&P 500:

           Nov.   Dec.

2012... 0.3 ... 0.7

2008... -7.5 ... 0.8

2004... 3.9 ... 3.2

2000... -8.0 ... 0.4

1996... 7.3 ... -2.2

1992... 3.0 ... 1.0

1988... -1.9 ... 1.5

1984... -1.5 ... 2.2

1980... 10.2 ... -3.4

1976... -0.8 ... 5.2

Source: Stock Trader’s Almanac / Jeffrey A. Hirsch & Yale Hirsch

Wall Street History will return in two weeks.

Brian Trumbore



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Wall Street History

09/30/2016

The Election and Market Returns

[Posted 9/26/16]

Following are the market returns in the immediate aftermath of our last ten presidential elections.  There are no broad-based conclusions one can make, as market reaction depended on many different factors, such as in 2008 we were in the midst of the financial crisis, while November 2000, we had major uncertainty you’ll recall over who actually won.

On the other hand, Wall Street celebrated in a big way when Ronald Reagan was first elected in 1980.

I guess one thing you can say is that 7 of the 10 years, whatever the performance was in November, it was reversed in December.

Percentage returns as measured by the S&P 500:

           Nov.   Dec.

2012... 0.3 ... 0.7

2008... -7.5 ... 0.8

2004... 3.9 ... 3.2

2000... -8.0 ... 0.4

1996... 7.3 ... -2.2

1992... 3.0 ... 1.0

1988... -1.9 ... 1.5

1984... -1.5 ... 2.2

1980... 10.2 ... -3.4

1976... -0.8 ... 5.2

Source: Stock Trader’s Almanac / Jeffrey A. Hirsch & Yale Hirsch

Wall Street History will return in two weeks.

Brian Trumbore