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04/15/2017

For the week 4/10-4/14

[Posted 11:00 PM ET, Friday]

Note: StocksandNews has significant ongoing costs and your support is greatly appreciated.  Click on the gofundme link or send a check to PO Box 990, New Providence, NJ 07974.  *Special thanks this week to Kirk N., longtime reader and fellow Demon Deacon.

Edition 940

Every family has certain customs and traditions.  My mother was a good Catholic and so every Good Friday my brother and I went with her to church for a little reflection.  Lots of relatives then on my mom’s side to pray for.  [Dad’s, not so many.]

So for the last 18 years I’ve been doing this column on Good Friday, but always make sure I zip over to church in the middle of the day to do what I was taught to.  Not as many family members to pray for these days.  So many are gone.

But while I prayed for the usual, including for myself, gosh darnit, and a friend’s son-in-law who is in the military (West Point grad) and liable to be sent anywhere, it really is a scary time.

I mean here I am tonight, pretty much finished with the column but waiting an hour to see if Fat Boy in Pyongyang does anything.

The Orcs in North Korea said on Friday that they could annihilate American military bases in South Korea “within minutes” and that it would test a nuclear weapon any time it pleases. And I just saw cross the wires that they displayed for the first time their new submarine-launched ballistic missile at their military parade.

I’ve been to the DMZ.  I wish every American could take the bus trip from Seoul to the border just to get an idea of how close the 10 million+ are to Kim’s artillery.  I can’t imagine the tension the people there are feeling today.  When you peer across through your binoculars, you’re looking at Mordor.

Kim Jong Un must be stopped.  Soon.  I’ve been warning for a long time he is making far quicker progress than we’ve been led to believe.  I told you a year ago, watch this Fourth of July and Guam.

Today, a new estimate came out that Kim already has 13-30 nuclear weapons (we used to hear 8 to 12).  Fat Boy must be decapitated.  But it can’t be at a cost of millions in Seoul, to say the least, as well as our own forces there.

Just pray our leaders, read Gen. Mattis in particular, do all the right things and that South Korea’s and Japan’s military leaders and governments stay strong.  [That’s a problem in Seoul.  With the recent impeachment, there really is no government until the special election.]

Meanwhile, I start off below with an extensive look at Syria and President Trump’s action there.  You may choose to skip all the commentary, but in keeping with what this column has been about since day one, this is the single best recorded history of our times...geopolitics and global financial markets...period.

More on North Korea in the “Foreign Affairs” section. 

The ongoing Syria missile strike fallout, Putin and Trump....

Saturday...the governor of Homs, Syria, confirmed that the air base struck by the U.S. cruise missile strike was back in operation.  The U.S. had said it didn’t crater the runways because they were easily fixed.

Vladimir Putin was acting like he wouldn’t meet with U.S. Sec. of State Rex Tillerson when the latter was in Moscow this week.  Russia’s story, for now, was that a Syrian government airstrike on Idlib hit a factory where Syrian rebels were manufacturing chemical weapons, according to Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, and that the Syrian government “has no chemical arms stockpiles” and said the U.S. strike was based on a “far-fetched notion.”

Moscow said it had fulfilled its part of a 2013 agreement mandating that Russia oversee the destruction of Mr. Assad’s chemical weapons arsenal.

Tillerson told reporters that the poison gas attack showed Moscow did not take its obligations seriously or was incompetent.

Sunday...Sec. Tillerson said on ABC’s “This Week” that he hopes Russia will “be supportive of a process that will lead to a stable Syria.”

“I’m disappointed because I think the real failure here has been Russia’s failure to live up to its commitments under the chemical weapons agreements that were entered into in 2013.

“Both by the Syrian government and by Russia as the guarantor to play the role in Syria of securing chemical weapons, destroying the chemical weapons and continuing to monitor that situation....

“I hope Russia is thinking carefully about its continued alliance with Bashar al-Assad,” he said, “because every time one of these horrific attacks occurs, it draws Russia closer into some level of responsibility.”

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said on NBC’s “Meet the Press,”  “Here’s what I think Assad’s telling Trump by flying from this base: ‘FU.’  And I think he’s making a serious mistake...if you’re an adversary of the United States and you don’t worry about what Trump may do on any given day.”

Graham added: “The Russian soldiers on the base where this attack occurred, the Russians intentionally, in my view, left chemical weapons in the hands of Assad, their proxy.  So if I were President Trump, I would go after Russia through sanctions not only for interfering in our elections, but aiding and abetting the use of chemical weapons by a war criminal, Assad.”

On CBS’ “Face the Nation,” John Dickerson interviewed Sen. John McCain (R-Az.)

Dickerson: It appears from Secretary Tillerson that the administration is not going to do anything more than the actions it already has taken.  What is your reaction to that?

McCain: “Well, I think what the president did was an excellent first step and it was a reversal of the last eight years.

“And I think it was important. But it is now vitally important we develop a strategy, we put that strategy in motion, and we bring about peace in that region. And that obviously means that there has to be a cessation of these war crimes.

“John, dropping, using chemical weapons is a war crime, but starving thousands of people in prisons is also.  Barrel bombs which indiscriminately kill innocent civilians, precision strikes done by Russians on hospitals in Aleppo are war crimes as well.

“So there’s a lot of war crimes that are taking place. And another aspect of this that I do not agree with the secretary is that you have to just concentrate on ISIS.

“We will take Mosul. We will take Raqqa. And we better have strategies as to how to handle those places once we have won it.  But they are not disconnected from Bashar al-Assad and al-Qaeda and the war crimes that have been taking place....

“Assad, by polarizing the Syrian people, has also given rise to ISIS and al-Qaeda. So they are both connected.  And I believe that the United States of America can address both at the same time. We can walk and chew gum....

“I also believe that a grieving mother whose child has been killed isn’t too concerned whether it is a chemical weapon or a barrel bomb.  He is still slaughtering people. And we may stop the chemical weapons.

“But we have also got to stop the other indiscriminate, inhumane war crimes that are being committed as well. And that means, obviously, trying to set up some kind of safe zone, so that these refugees can have a place where they can be. And, also, that would help with the refugee flow issue.”

On ABC’s  “This Week,” George Stephanopoulos interviewed Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.)

Rubio: “As long as Assad is there, you’re going to have a radical jihadist Sunni element, even if you destroy ISIS it’ll be al-Nusra and that new coalition. These people who have been killed and gassed and human rights violations against them will never accept Assad as their rightful ruler, and they will join or become radicalized in order to keep fighting....

“(Syria) is much more complicated than it was three, four, five years ago. But there are still things that can be done.  We should be increasing sanctions significantly on Iranian and Russian interests that are helping Assad, and particularly this Boeing deal (ed. with Iran) should be canceled.  The second thing that we need to examine is how can we suppress the air defenses of the Assad regime? And that may include coalition use of force to ensure that these offensive operations from the air are not happening, and by the way keep our troops there.”

Stephanopoulos: But you can’t do that if Russia’s not on board, can you?

Rubio: “Well, here’s the bottom line. If those air strikes are being used not just to attack civilians and innocents on the ground, but also threatening the over 500 American servicemen and women who are on the ground in Syria, we have a national security interest in protecting them from air strikes. By the way, that was one of the factors I think should have been in play in this particular attack.  The presence of sarin gas and its use in a country where there are Americans embedded alongside forces, working to defeat ISIS, is a clear and present danger to the men and women who serve us in uniform....

“(Addressing Tillerson) There is no such thing as Assad, yes, but ISIS, no.  This focus that you can defeat ISIS as long as Assad is there is not true. They’re two sides of the same coin.

“As long as Bashar al-Assad is in power in Syria, you will have a reason for people to be radicalized in Syria. And that’s what’s going to happen. And, by the way, in all this about ISIS – there’s an al-Qaeda group growing in strength, this al-Nusra coalition, that are prepared to step into the vacuum left behind by a defeated ISIS.  You cannot have a stable Syria without jihadist elements on the ground as long as Bashar al-Assad is in power. And the quicker they realize that, the better our strategy’s going to be.”

Also Sunday, Russian President Putin and Iran’s Hassan Rohani said in a phone call that aggressive U.S. actions against Syria were not permissible and violated international law, the Kremlin relayed.

The two leaders also called for an objective investigation into an incident involving chemical weapons in Syria’s Idlib and said they were ready to deepen cooperation to fight terrorism.

Rohani said in a televised address that the U.S. strikes risked escalating extremism in the region.

“This man who claimed that he wanted to fight terrorism gave terrorist organizations a reason to celebrate the American attack.”

And British Defense Secretary Michael Fallon wrote in an op-ed, Russia is “by proxy responsible for every civilian death last week.  Someone who uses barrel bombs and chemicals on his own people cannot be the future leader of Syria.  Assad must go.”

A Washington Post/ABC News poll released Monday showed that 51% of U.S. adults supported the missile strike on Syria, whereas only 40% opposed.

But the same poll indicated that just 25% said the action made them more confident in Trump’s leadership abilities.

A CBS News poll showed 57% of Americans expressed general approval for targeting Syrian military facilities in response to the use of chemical weapons, while only 36% disapproved.

But only 41% in the CBS poll said they were confident about Trump’s ability to handle the situation in Syria, vs. 54% who said they were “uneasy” at this point.  [I have overall job approval #s down below.]

Monday...as the rhetoric heated up between Russia and the United States, the Kremlin warned that if Washington did nothing to improve relations, “Moscow will react reciprocally.”

Defense Secretary James Mattis confirmed early reports that the cruise-missile strike destroyed 20% of the military’s aircraft.

“The Syrian government has lost the ability to refuel or rearm aircraft at Shayrat airfield and at this point, use of the runway is of idle military interest.”

Mattis added in a statement: “The Syrian government would be ill-advised ever again to use chemical weapons.”

Trump continues to shift positions versus what he advocated during the campaign; shifting from a populist platform embraced by the Republican Party’s most conservative elements, to a highly pragmatic approach, favored by mainstream Republicans.

You see this on his economic policy, as elucidated on in a Wall Street Journal interview.

But his policies are indeed fluid, constantly changing, such as his ideas on infrastructure and the tax code.

But Wednesday he told the Journal that the U.S. dollar “is getting too strong” and that he favors low interest rates for longer, with both the dollar and yields on U.S. government bonds falling sharply on the words.

Trump said the strength of the dollar was hurting the competitiveness of U.S. companies that do a lot of business abroad. And on interest rates, he said “I do like a low-interest rate policy, I must be honest with you.”

Cheaper borrowing costs and a lower dollar certainly make it easier for Trump to attain his growth goals.

Trump also told the Journal that he wasn’t going to label China a currency manipulator, another big campaign theme, as Trump said it would get in the way of his discussions with Beijing on them taking a lead in calming tensions with North Korea.

Tuesday...President Trump sought to make it clear, “We’re not going into Syria,” he told the New York Post’s Michael Goodwin.  ‘Our policy is the same – it hasn’t changed.  We’re not going into Syria.”

Trump told Goodwin that Assad was a “butcher” and a “barbarian” for using sarin gas on his own people, but said last week’s successful missile strike was not the start of a campaign to oust the dictator.

“Our big mission is getting rid of ISIS,” Trump said.  “That’s where it’s always been.  But when you see kids choking to death, you watch their lungs burning out, we had to hit him and hit him hard.”

He called the attack, involving 59 cruise missiles fired from two Navy destroyers, “an act of humanity.”

Trump told Goodwin, “We hope (Assad) won’t do any more gassing.”

“We’re not exactly on the same wavelength with Russia, to put it mildly.  Putin must see what a barbarian this guy is, and it’s a very bad symbol for Russia with this guy gassing children and using barrel bombs.”

Wednesday...Secretary of State Tillerson held his first direct talks with President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, after Putin put him off for hours and hours, as tensions with Russia deepened, with the Kremlin making it clear it was not about to roll back its support of Bashar al-Assad.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Putin might agree to resume an information-sharing “deconfliction” network with the United States on the countries’ warplane flights in Syria. Russia had suspended its role in the system after the missile strike.  Lavrov said the link could be reestablished if U.S. airstrikes in Syria focused only on Islamic State and other militant groups – and not expanded to Syrian government targets.

At their joint news conference, Tillerson said the United States has no information that Russian forces directly helped with the chemical attack, even as U.S. officials, and Tillerson himself, suggested earlier that Russia knew about the Syrian plans in advance.

“We have no firm information to indicate there was any involvement by Russia, Russian forces, into this attack,” Tillerson said.  “What we do know, and we have very firm and high confidence in our conclusions, is that the attack was planned and carried out at the direction of Bashar al-Assad.”

Lavrov retorted: “This is obviously the subject where our views differ.”

Russia was unbending in Tillerson’s efforts to get the Kremlin to help remove Assad from power.

Tillerson said on Tuesday that Russia needed to calculate the costs of remaining an ally of Assad, and Wednesday, the Russian Foreign Ministry dismissed those remarks.

“I believe everyone realized a long time ago that there is no use in giving us ultimatums.  This is simply counterproductive,” a foreign ministry spokeswoman said.

On the Trump administration’s claims that its intelligence proved Syrian forces had carried out the deadly chemical weapons attack.  Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, “We reject any accusations to this effect and would like to remind everyone that Russia has been the only country to demand an unbiased international inquiry into the circumstances of the use of toxic chemicals near Idlib from the very start.”

Speaking on Fox Business Network, Trump said: “Putin is backing a person (Assad) that’s truly an evil person.  And I think it’s very bad for Russia.  I think it’s very bad for mankind.  It’s very bad for this world.”

Appearing alongside NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, Trump offered support for the Western military alliance, which he had previously criticized as obsolete.  And while he refrained from criticizing Russian President Vladimir Putin directly, he said the U.S.-Russia relationship “may be at an all-time low” in the aftermath of U.S. air strikes on the Syrian airfield.

Asked if he thought Russia knew of the sarin gas attack, Trump hedged.

“I think it’s certainly possible. I think it’s probably unlikely,” he said.  “I would like to think that they didn’t know, but certainly they could have.”

In describing his decision to order last week’s missile attack:

“That’s a butcher.  That’s a butcher. So, I felt we had to do something about it.  I have absolutely no doubt we did the right thing,” Trump said.

But Trump has been insisting the U.S. will not be sending troops to Syria.

Democrats, while supportive of the missile strike, are demanding that Trump get specific with his strategy, while Republicans want the administration to work more closely with Congress.

Vladimir Putin said Wednesday that trust had eroded between the two countries under President Trump.

Russia blocked a Western-led effort at the UN Security Council Wednesday night to condemn last week’s gas attack and push Assad to cooperate with international inquiries into the incident.

It was the eighth time during Syria’s six-year-old civil war that Moscow has used its veto power on the Security Council to shield Assad’s government.

In this veto, Russia was blocking a draft resolution backed by the U.S., Britain and France to denounce the attack in the town of Khan Sheikhoun and tell Assad’s government to provide access for investigators, as well as provide flight plans.

U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, called on Moscow to stop protecting Assad.

“Russia once again has chosen to side with Assad, even as the rest of the world, including the Arab world, overwhelmingly comes together to condemn this murderous regime,” Haley told the Security Council.

Thursday, Bashar Assad denied reports of a chemical attack carried out by Syrian government forces, saying they were “fabricated” and accusing the U.S. of working “hand in glove” with al-Qaeda to create a pretext for air strikes.

Speaking to Agence France-Presse, Assad said the government no longer has any chemical weapons, and “even if we had them we wouldn’t use them, we have never used our chemical arsenal in our history.”

Assad described reports of the gas attack as “propaganda,” saying: “Our impression is that the West is hand in glove with the terrorists, they fabricated the whole story in order to have a pretext for the attack.”

Opinion....

Walter Russell Mead / Wall Street Journal

“President Trump faced his first serious foreign-policy test this week.  To the surprise and perhaps frustration of his critics, he passed with flying colors.

“In the first place, the president read the situation correctly.  Syrian President Bashar Assad’s horrific and illegal use of chemical weapons against civilians was not merely an affront to international norms. It was a probe by Mr. Assad and his patrons to test the mettle of the new White House.

“This must have looked like a good week to challenge Washington.  The Trump administration is beset by critics.  Most senior national-security posts remain unfilled.  The White House is torn by infighting. The Republican Party is divided by the bitter primary campaign and its recent health-care fiasco.

“President Trump concluded, correctly, that failing to respond effectively to Mr. Assad’s challenge would invite more probes and more tests.  He moved quickly and decisively against the provocation, demonstrating that the days of strategic dithering are gone.

“Second, Mr. Trump chose the right response: a limited missile strike against the Syrian air base that, according to American intelligence, had launched the vicious gas attack.  This resonated well nearly everywhere. At home, it won approval from Jacksonians and others who want a strong president....

“Third, Mr. Trump handled the process well.  Congress was briefed but not asked for approval, a decision inside the long-established norms that govern military action by American commanders in chief. Engaging in a war to overthrow Mr. Assad would be another matter, but so far Mr. Trump has stayed well within the mainstream of American presidents dating back to the 18th century.

“The Trump administration notified Russia before the U.S. bombed the Syrian airfield. This is a process of its own. If this were the start of a long war, we wouldn’t give our adversaries advance warning about the opening salvo....

“Finally, Mr. Trump gets extra points for deftness. He struck at a Russian proxy while holding a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in which North Korea was a major topic.  That’s a polite way to make the point that the U.S. and its allies have kicked the North Korean can down the road for too long....

“Mr. Obama’s acolytes now will have to spend less time attacking Mr. Trump and more time trying to defend their own tattered legacy in Syria....

“But while Mr. Trump and his associates bask in their success, they should remember their foreign policy travails are only beginning.  Russia, Iran and China all seek to roll back American power.  The European Union – whatever its shortcomings, a bulwark of American power – faces its greatest threat in half a century from the combination of flawed policies at home and ruthless challengers abroad.  The bloodbath in the Middle East is by no means finished.  Turkey, once a pillar of regional stability and American security, threatens to become unmoored from the West and the NATO alliance....

“Mr. Trump has passed his first test, but more difficult ones are yet to come. If he is to succeed – and every American and friend of world peace must pray that he does – he will need a team in the White House that commands his full confidence....There is no job in the world more difficult than the U.S. presidency.  President Trump will need all the help he can get.”

Robert Kagan / Washington Post

“Trump was not wrong to blame the dire situation in Syria on President Barack Obama. The world would be a different place today if Obama had carried out his threat to attack Syria when Assad crossed the famous ‘red line’ in the summer of 2013.  The bad agreement that then-Secretary of State John F. Kerry struck with Russia not only failed to get rid of Syria’s stock of chemical weapons, but it allowed the Assad regime to drop barrel bombs and employ widespread torture against civilian men, women and children.  It also invited a full-scale Russian intervention in the fall of 2015, which saved the Assad regime from possible collapse.

“Today, thousands of Russian forces operate throughout Syria, and not chiefly against the Islamic State but against the civilian population and the U.S.-backed moderate opposition.  Russia has also greatly expanded its military presence in the eastern Mediterranean.  The extensive air-defense and anti-ship systems Russia has deployed have nothing to do with counterterrorism – because neither the Islamic State nor al-Qaeda has planes or ships – and everything to do with threatening U.S. and NATO assets.  Obama and Kerry spent four years panting after this partnership, but Russia has been a partner the way the mafia is when it presses in on your sporting goods business.  Thanks to Obama’s policies, Russia has increasingly supplanted the United States as a major power broker in the region.  Even U.S. allies such as Turkey, Egypt and Israel look increasingly to Moscow as a significant regional player.

“Obama’s policies also made possible an unprecedented expansion of Iran’s power and influence.  Iran has at least 7,000 of its own fighters in Syria, and it leads a coalition of 20,000 foreign fighters, including Iraqis, Afghans and 8,000 Lebanese Hizbullah.

“If you add the devastating impact of massive Syrian refugee flows on European democracies, Obama’s policies have not only allowed the deaths of almost a half-million Syrians but also have significantly weakened America’s global position and the health and coherence of the West.  Future historians will have to determine whether Vladimir Putin was emboldened to move in Ukraine by Obama’s failure to carry through on his threat in Syria, or whether China felt free to act more aggressively in the South China Sea.  But at the very least U.S. friends and allies in the Middle East and in Eastern and Central Europe have questioned how serious the United States is about countering aggression.  Even in East Asia, American allies such as Japan and South Korea were left wondering whether the United States could still be counted on to keep its military commitments.

“Trump, of course, greatly exacerbated these problems during his campaign, with all the strong rhetoric aimed at allies.  Now he has taken an important first step in repairing the damage, but this will not be the end of the story.  America’s adversaries are not going to be convinced by one missile strike that the United States is back in the business of projecting power to defend its interests and the world order....

“Instead of being a one-time event, the missile strike needs to be the opening move in a comprehensive political, diplomatic and military strategy to rebalance the situation in Syria in America’s favor.  That means reviving some of those proposals that Obama rejected over the past four years: a no-fly zone to protect Syrian civilians, the grounding of the Syrian air force, and the effective arming and training of the moderate opposition, all aimed at an eventual political settlement that can bring the Syrian civil war, and therefore the Assad regime, to an end.  The United States’ commitment to such a course will have to be clear enough to deter the Russians from attempting to disrupt it.  This in turn will require moving sufficient military assets to the region so that neither Russia nor Iran will be tempted to escalate the conflict to a crisis, and to be sure that American forces will be ready if they do.

“It was precisely because Obama and his White House advisers were unwilling to go down that path that they resisted military action of any kind, regardless of the provocation.  Let’s hope that the Trump administration is prepared for the next move.  If it is, then there is a real chance of reversing the course of global retreat that Obama began.”

I hope a lot of the above sounded rather familiar to many of you.

Michael Goodwin / New York Post

“In a flash, President Trump’s missile strike on Syria conveyed America’s moral outrage over the slaughter of innocents and delivered a lethal warning to two-bit tyrants everywhere.

“The attack did something else, too. It punched a giant hole in the battered legacy of Barack Obama.

“The former president talked early and often about Syria, but wasted six years and countless lives with hand-wringing dithering.  He failed to enforce his red line about Bashar al-Assad’s use of chemical weapons, kicking the job to Trump, who acted just two days after Assad again unleashed fiendish weapons on his own people....

“The confirmation of Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court illustrated the importance of Republicans holding the Senate and winning the White House as part of the nationwide rejection of Obamaism.

“Yet as measured by the loss of life and global impact, nothing compares with Obama’s failure in Syria.  His refusal to lift a finger opened the door to perhaps the largest humanitarian crises since World War II.”

David Ignatius / Washington Post

“The Trump administration’s foreign policy has been a dizzying spectacle of mixed messages and policy reversals during its first three months.  But in last week’s crucial tests, President Trump made good decisions about Syria, Russia and China – moving his erratic administration a bit closer toward the pillars of traditional U.S. policy.

“The decision to strike a Syrian air base was a confidence builder for an inexperienced and sometimes fractious White House, a senior official said.  Trump couldn’t be sure when he launched the attack that a Russian wouldn’t be killed, or that some other freak mishap wouldn’t arise.  The military option he chose had two virtues: It was quick, surprising Russians who hadn’t expected such prompt retaliation; and it was measured, sending a calibrated message rather than beginning an open-ended military intervention.

“Trump famously likes to win, and he can probably claim a win here after weeks of chaotic setbacks.  As a result, the Syria operation, generally praised at home and abroad, has consolidated the power of Trump’s core foreign policy team, in ways that may alter the political balance of this White House.

“Here’s the consensus among top Republican and Democratic former officials I spoke with: National security adviser H.R. McMaster ran a tight interagency process; Defense Secretary Jim Mattis offered the president clear, manageable options.  Trump mostly stayed off Twitter, encouraging his team members to do the work rather than disrupting them.

“Perhaps the most visible beneficiary is Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, who has found his voice after an agonizingly slow start.  Tillerson clearly has gained Trump’s confidence and has also forged an alliance with the decisive backstage operator in this White House, senior adviser (and Trump’s son-in-law) Jared Kushner.

“The knives are out for Stephen K. Bannon, who bid to be Trump’s key strategist but is now branded by some close to Trump as a divisive, self-promoting personality whose days are numbered.  What seems to have angered Trump and his inner circle is the bid for supremacy by ‘someone who came on board 72 days before the election,’ as one aide put it. ‘People are tired of games’ from Bannon, he said.

“Trump has also tilted toward China and away from Russia in the triangular game of nations played by this administration, much as it was by then-Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, Kushner’s apparent mentor.  That rebalancing is the opposite of what Trump seemed to favor during the campaign, when he blasted China and wooed Russian President Vladimir Putin at every opportunity.  But it’s a more sensible and sustainable course....

“Last week’s trickiest maneuver was simultaneously bombing Syria and meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.  Trump has basically done a 180 on China: After challenging the fundamentals of the relationship before he took office, Trump has now reverted to Kissingerian language of cooperation.  The goal of the summit, officials say, was for the two self-styled ‘big men’ to get to know each other....

“Trump’s impulsive, unpredictable style has confounded the Chinese, who like to plan every detail, but officials say their overall satisfaction was conveyed by their lack of criticism in a communique after the summit....

“The Trump team feels that after last week’s strike on Syria to enforce the chemical weapons ban, the United States has regained the strategic initiative from Putin.  ‘Russia is catching as opposed to pitching for a change,’ says one senior official.  ‘They are on the back foot, surprised by Trump.’

“Rebuffing Putin is a worthy goal, if an unlikely one for Trump. Former defense secretary Bob Gates offers the crucial caveat; ‘There’s merit in getting Russia off balance politically, but being militarily unpredictable when Russian forces are directly involved is a very risky business.’”

Paul Wolfowitz / Wall Street Journal

“Strong American action can dramatically change the attitudes of other countries. It makes enemies more cautious, friends more supportive, and fence-sitters more cooperative. It provides leverage in negotiations and improves opportunities for coalition building.  Last week President Trump demonstrated American resolve by retaliating against the Syrian government after Bashar Assad used chemical weapons. Now Mr. Trump must follow through with a broad diplomatic effort to end the country’s bloodshed.

“Among the most interesting reactions to the American strike were two from Iraqi Shiite leaders.  Last Thursday Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, a moderate, and the cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, a firebrand, both called for Mr. Assad to step down. Mr. Sadr predictably denounced the American strike.  Mr. Abadi indirectly praised it by noting how Iraqis had suffered from Saddam Hussein’s chemical weapons.

“These calls for Mr. Assad to step down might seem at odds with the conventional wisdom, which puts the Sunni-Shiite conflict at the heart of everything in the Middle East.  Shouldn’t Iraq’s Shiites naturally side with Iran’s Syrian proxy and approve of Mr. Assad’s brutal treatment of Sunni opponents?  Yet there are issues more important than the commonly noted sectarian divisions.  The people of Iraq know well that the Assad regime has supported the insurgents and suicide bombers who have killed thousands of Iraqis, and hundreds of Americans, since 2003.  The Bush administration largely turned a blind eye to that support, and President Obama did so even more.”

Bret Stephens / Wall Street Journal

“Last week’s cruise-missile strike against a Syrian air base in response to Bashar Assad’s use of chemical weapons has reopened debate about the wisdom of Barack Obama’s decision to forgo a similar strike, under similar circumstances, in 2013.

“But the real issue isn’t about wisdom. It’s about honesty.

“On Sept. 10, 2013, President Obama delivered a televised address in which he warned of the dangers of not acting against Assad’s use of sarin gas, which had killed some 1,400 civilians in the Damascus suburb of Ghouta the previous month.

“ ‘If we fail to act, the Assad regime will see no reason to stop using chemical weapons,’ Mr. Obama said.  ‘As the ban against these weapons erodes, other tyrants will have no reason to think twice about acquiring poison gas, and using them.  Over time, our troops would again face the prospect of chemical weapons on the battlefield.  And it could be easier for terrorist organizations to obtain these weapons, and use them to attack civilians.’

“It was a high-minded case for action that the president immediately disavowed for the least high-minded reason: It was politically unpopular.  The administration punted a vote to an unwilling Congress.  It punted a fix to the all-too-willing Russians. And it spent the rest of its time in office crowing about its success.

“In July 2014 Secretary of State John Kerry claimed ‘we got 100% of the chemical weapons out.’  In May 2015 Mr. Obama boasted that ‘Assad gave up his chemical weapons.  That’s not speculation on our part.  That, in fact, has been confirmed by the organization internationally that is charged with eliminating chemical weapons.’  This January, then-National Security Adviser Susan Rice said ‘we were able to get the Syrian government to voluntarily and verifiably give up its chemical weapons stockpile.’

“Today we know all this was untrue.  Or, rather, now all of us know it.  Anyone paying even slight attention has known it for years.

“In June 2014 UN Ambassador Samantha Power noted ‘discrepancies and omissions related to the Syrian government’s declaration of its chemical weapons program.’  But that hint of unease didn’t prevent her from celebrating the removal ‘of the final 8% of chemical weapons materials in Syria’s declaration’ of its overall stockpile....

“In February 2016, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper confirmed (a Wall Street Journal report), telling Congress ‘Syria has not declared all the elements of its chemical weapons program.’

“Why did Mr. Obama and his senior officials stick to a script that they knew was untethered from the facts?  Let’s speculate.  They thought the gap between Assad’s ‘declared’ and actual stockpile was close enough for government work.  They figured a credulous press wouldn’t work up a sweat pointing out the difference.  They didn’t imagine Assad would use what was left of his chemical arsenal for fear of provoking the U.S.

“And they didn’t want to disturb the public narrative that multilateral diplomacy was a surer way than military action to disarm rogue Middle Eastern regimes of their illicit weapons. Two months after Mr. Obama’s climb-down with Syria, he signed on to the interim nuclear deal with Iran. The remainder of his term was spent trying not to upset the fragile beauty of his nuclear diplomacy.

“Now we’re coming to grips with the human and strategic price of the Obama administration’s mendacity....

“And it left Mr. Obama’s successor with a lousy set of options....

“Mr. Obama and his advisers will never run out of self-justifications for their policy in Syria. They can’t outrun responsibility for the consequences of their lies.”

Editorial / Washington Post

“The prospect that the Trump administration will soon develop friendly relations with Russia appears to be fading fast.  Though President Trump has yet to make a critical remark in public about Vladimir Putin, his aides are lambasting the Kremlin for its tolerance of, and possible complicity in, a chemical-weapons attack by Syria. White House aides are even denouncing the ‘fake news’ reports with which Moscow is attempting to sow confusion about the use of the nerve agent sarin by the regime of Bashar al-Assad – which is certainly a change from Mr. Trump’s campaign habit of echoing Russian disinformation.

“If the administration is developing a more realistic view of Mr. Putin and the threats he poses to core U.S. interests, that is to be welcomed.  That said, there seems to be more learning to do.  On his way to Moscow for meetings Tuesday, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson coupled his criticism of Russia, and a welcome declaration that ‘we see no further role for the Assad regime longer term,’ with an expression of ‘hope’ that Russia would choose to drop its alliance with Damascus and Iran and instead ‘realign with the United States, with other Western countries’ that ‘are seeking to resolve the Syrian crisis.’....

“(But) Mr. Putin is dead set against ‘regime change’ in Syria or anywhere else the West seeks the removal of a dictator.  Moreover, Russia’s new place of power in the Mideast, including its Syrian bases, is defended by Iranian-led ground forces, making a rupture of the Moscow-Tehran alliance unthinkable for Mr. Putin.

“If Mr. Tillerson really wants Russia to switch sides, he will need to obtain what Mr. Kerry sought in vain – leverage provided by U.S. military action to cripple the Assad regime.  One volley of cruise missiles won’t do it: The United States would need to destroy the rest of the Syrian air force and provide greater support to non-extremist rebels on the ground.  That would be far harder to do now than in 2012 and 2013, when Mr. Obama chose not to act; among other things, it would risk a direct military conflict with Russia.

“A more modest goal for U.S. diplomacy would be to agree with Russia on a de facto partition of Syria into zones controlled by the regime, Western-backed rebels and Kurds, with a long-term cease-fire imposed on all sides. Russia could meanwhile round up and dispose of the chemical stocks that the Assad regime still retains.  That would, at least, spare Syrian civilians from further atrocities and allow for a concentration of military efforts against the Islamic State and al-Qaeda.  But as Mr. Kerry could tell Mr. Tillerson, even that won’t fly with Mr. Putin unless the United States is willing to show greater resolve.”

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“The theory, popular with the media, that President Trump is a political prisoner of Vladimir Putin is looking less credible by the day. The latest evidence arrived Tuesday as White House officials accused Russia of trying to cover up Bashar Assad’s chemical-weapons assault in Syria, and Mr. Trump formally invited Montenegro to join NATO.

“As Mr. Putin was refusing to meet Secretary of State Rex Tillerson in Moscow, White House officials said Russia is conducting a ‘disinformation campaign’ to shield Mr. Assad from accountability for last week’s sarin attack that killed at least 85 people.  The official also said they suspect Russia knew about the attack in advance given how closely the two militaries work together in Syria – though there isn’t definitive evidence.  This public truth-telling is welcome and helps to keep diplomatic pressure on Mr. Assad and Russia as his accomplice.

“Meanwhile, the White House announced that Mr. Trump signed the U.S. ‘instrument of ratification’ for Montenegro to become the 29th member of NATO.  The decision paves the way for the tiny Eastern Europe nation to join at the NATO summit in May if other nations agree.

“Montenegro won’t count for much militarily, but its entry is important as a rebuke to Mr. Putin, who opposes any expansion of the Western alliance close to Russia’s borders.  Last year Russian agents tried but failed to orchestrate a coup to overthrow Montenegro’s pro-Western government.  ‘President Trump congratulates the Montenegrin people for their resilience and their demonstrated commitment to NATO’s democratic values,’ said the White House statement, in a clear reference to the coup attempt.

“The investigations into ties between Russia and the Trump presidential campaign have a long way to go, but Mr. Trump isn’t acting like someone who is making foreign-policy judgments out of fear of Russia’s response.  This is reassuring and will strengthen his leverage with the Russian strongman.”

Anne-Marie Slaughter / Financial Times

“Donald Trump has done the right thing at last.  Syria’s agony will not soon end, but after years of global hand-wringing the U.S. has finally taken a stand for basic norms of humanity and morality.  Calculation of certain risks versus uncertain gains were swept away by a visceral response to evil.

“Yet, as supporters and critics of Mr. Trump’s action agree, a strike is not a strategy.  How does punishing Bashar al-Assad for gassing his people fit with Mr. Trump’s announced doctrine of ‘America First’?  I can think of three possible rationales, each of which would move towards a more coherent foreign policy.

“One approach is that order requires law and law requires enforcement.  Mr. Trump’s stated reason for acting was to uphold the International Chemical Weapons Convention. Under international law, the action should have been authorized by the UN Security Council, but Russia’s veto has blocked any action against Mr. Assad for more than five years.  Mr. Trump is signaling the same determination to China with regard to North Korea’s nuclear program.

“Law that is not backed by force is just paper: a Trump doctrine could declare that the U.S. will make every effort to resolve international problems through diplomacy, but in cases involving the proliferation or use of weapons of mass destruction, the U.S. is prepared to act with the support of only a plurality of Security Council members. As satisfying as it may feel, Mr. Trump does not want to legitimize unilateral action by great powers: he would be providing a license for Russian, Chinese and Iranian uses of force that he will soon regret.

“A second rationale would redefine America First to mean Americans First, a statement that every government’s primary obligation is to its own people. Mr. Trump has focused on assessing the impact of trade deals and foreign wars on the American people, insisting that his government’s job is to protect American jobs and livelihoods ahead of the jobs and livelihoods of the millions of people in developing countries who have profited from globalization.

“This is a complicated calculation, as the increased prosperity of citizens in other countries means they can purchase more goods and services from the U.S.  The expansion of global trade has also lowered the cost of living for American consumers at the expense of American producers.  Still, the often maligned doctrine of ‘responsibility to protect’ begins with the proposition that it is the job of governments to protect their people, a view Mr. Trump should embrace.  The corollary, however, is that when governments commit genocide, crimes against humanity, ethnic cleansing and systematic war crimes against their own citizens, the international community can intervene.

“Finally, Mr. Trump might simply choose to go with a much simpler doctrine: words mean what they say.  Last month the UN’s high commissioner for human rights, Zeid Ra’ad al Hussein, described Syria as ‘the worst man-made disaster the world has seen’ since the second world war. Yet the world has stood by for seven years as the Syrian regime has targeted and killed journalists, bombed medical centers, tortured thousands and dropped barrel bombs on civilians.  Our words are empty protestations.....

“On the campaign trail the president showed little interest in international order, declaring his intent to upend alliances and rejecting the internationalism that has underpinned the UN system.  Embracing the responsibility to protect would mean accepting that the protection of people in other countries is a pillar of the international order....

“(Mr. Trump’s) defense secretary, James Mattis, believes deeply that America’s national interest includes the defense of universal values, the values the U.S. was founded on and that its soldiers try hard to uphold.  Part of the reality of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan is how hard it is to figure out how to be the good guys in cultures and conflicts we so often do not fully understand.  Against this backdrop, Mr. Trump’s decisiveness and precision in punishing Mr. Assad offered a refreshing moment of moral clarity, notwithstanding the risks.  Now he needs a strategy to turn a moment into a manifesto.”

Editorial / The Economist

“There are good reasons to cheer the missile attack ordered by Donald Trump on a Syrian air base on April 6th.   It sent a message to Bashar al-Assad, Syria’s despot, that America would not tolerate his use of chemical weapons. It also showed that Mr. Trump, despite many indications to the contrary, was prepared to act to uphold an international norm and to do so for humanitarian reasons: he was outraged by a nerve-gas attack that killed more than 80 people in the rebel enclave of Idlib.  But one barrage doesn’t make a strategy.

“Before Mr. Trump saw television pictures of poisoned children, he had said that getting rid of Mr. Assad was no longer a goal of American policy, as it had been, at least notionally, under Barack Obama. In the week before the chemical attack, both the secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, and America’s UN ambassador, Nikki Haley, had confirmed that shift, thus possibly increasing Mr. Assad’s sense of impunity.  The priority of Mr. Trump was the defeat of Islamic State (IS).  Wider questions about Syria’s future would come later.

“Inevitably, those questions are now back to the fore. When military force is used, it is reasonable to ask: what next?  Various members of the administration have tried to explain the thinking behind the missile strike.

“Mr. Tillerson, on his way to a G7 foreign ministers’ meeting in Italy, castigated the Russians for ‘incompetence’ in failing to restrain their repulsive ally, but said that nothing else had changed.  Ms. Haley contradicted him, arguing that there could be no peace with Mr. Assad still in power.  H.R. McMaster, Mr. Trump’s national security adviser, tried splitting the difference.  Mr. Trump himself was uncharacteristically reticent.  Confusion reigns.

“What might Mr. Trump now do about the Syrian regime’s continued use of other indiscriminate weapons against civilians, such as barrel bombs packed with scrap metal?  Maybe nothing.  But in Italy Mr. Tillerson suddenly suggested a new policy of unlimited interventionism, saying: ‘We dedicate ourselves to holding to account any and all who commit crimes against the innocents anywhere in the world.’  A few hours later Sean Spicer, the president’s press secretary, said: ‘If you gas a baby, if you put a barrel bomb into innocent people, I think you will see a response from this president.’  Does that mean that Mr. Trump now favors overthrowing Mr. Assad?  Surely not, for that would mean direct confrontation in the air with Russia and on the ground with Mr. Assad’s other ally, Iran.

“Instead of confusing rhetoric, the administration should be preparing for the day, fast approaching, when IS in Syria has been thrown out of its ‘capital’ in Raqqa by American-backed Kurdish and Arab forces. When the jihadists no longer hold significant territory, America should be prepared to lead international forces protecting mainly Sunni Arab and Kurdish areas in the east and north of the country from the Assad regime’s attempts to widen its area of control....Yet if Mr. Trump is thinking about such a plan, there is no sign of it.

“After the missile strike, any lingering notion that Mr. Trump might strike a grand bargain with Russia over Syria is dead.  The end of his bromance with Vladimir Putin is welcome – America’s interests and Russia’s are so at odds that it was always doomed to fail.  However, it would be nice to think that Mr. Trump was pursuing a coherent strategy abroad, rather than reacting to what he had just seen on Fox News.  Unpredictability has its uses in foreign policy, but it is worrying that even Mr. Trump’s closest aides have no idea what he will do next.”

Daniel Henninger / Wall Street Journal

“Instead of ‘The Trump Presidency Begins,’ an alternative headline for this column might have been ‘Trump’s Presidency Begins.’  Each describes a different reality.

“Until recently, ‘Trump’s presidency’ has been about one thing – Donald Trump.  It’s been Trump 24/7. Mr. Trump owned the presidency the way Mr. Trump owns a tower on Fifth Avenue.  For better and for worse, Trump’s presidency was all about him.

“In the past few weeks – the Gorsuch appointment, the Syrian strike, the meeting with China’s Xi Jinping – we are finally seeing the beginning of the real Trump presidency.

“Like all the others dating back to George Washington, the presidency is not an object captured by one person; it is an office held in trust for the people of the United States.

“The Trump-centric phenomenon of these early days is the product of our celebrity-centric times, not least the presidency.  He drove it with social media, and the media torrents washed back over him.

“There are some realities, though, that the media torrents haven’t washed away yet. America’s institutions, its politics and the distant world are still too large for anyone to hold and command alone.  That is the lesson of recent days....

“Confirming Judge Gorsuch required the Trump presidency to recede so its political allies could rise and execute. The legislative branch eliminated the filibuster for Supreme Court nominees, thereby preserving the president’s prerogatives.

“While the Gorsuch drama played out on the Senate floor, Mr. Trump met at Mar-a-Lago with China’s Xi Jinping, who traveled nearly 8,000 miles to meet the American president.  Possibly, the Chinese thought that Muhammad going to the mountain would flatter the flatterable Mr. Trump.  Instead, the strikingly low-key meeting acknowledged the high stakes for the two nations and the world.

“On Wednesday, Mr. Xi called the president to discuss North Korea again. That no doubt had something to do with Mr. Trump’s soufflé surprise over dinner with Mr. Xi – a missile strike against an Assad airfield and chemical-weapons depot on Syria.

“Unlike the assassination of Osama bin Laden, when the mission details leaked out overnight, there was no self-congratulatory media dump out of the White House of this presumably ultra-media-conscious president.  Just a blow to the Middle East status quo.

“For our purposes, the important thing isn’t the strike but what came before. It requires little imagination to guess the import of the conversations about operational and political details between the president and Defense Secretary Jim Mattis – former head of the U.S.’s Middle Eastern Central Command – and his national security adviser, Gen. H.R. McMaster.  As Dorothy said to Toto, I don’t think we’re in Kansas anymore....

“We have arrived in the foothills of the Trump presidency, and warnings no doubt abound.  Not least is the Republican obsession with the sport of cliff-diving over dry land. What’s important is that a presidency that was almost too much fun has taken a turn for the serious.”

Charles Krauthammer / Washington Post

“The world is agog at President Trump’s head-snapping foreign policy reversal. He runs on a platform of America First. He renounces the role of world policeman. He excoriates parasitic foreigners that (I paraphrase) suck dry our precious bodily fluids – and these are allies!  On April 4, Trump declared: ‘I don’t want to be the president of the world.  I’m the president of the United States.  And from now on, it’s going to be America First.’

“A week earlier, both his secretary of state and UN ambassador had said that the regime of Bashar al-Assad is a reality and that changing it is no longer an American priority.

“Then last week, Assad drops chemical weapons on rebel-held territory and Trump launches 59 Tomahawk missiles into Syria.

“This was, in part, an emotional reaction to images of children dying of sarin poisoning.  And, in part, seizing the opportunity to redeem Barack Obama’s unenforced red line on chemical weapons.  Whatever the reason, moral or strategic, Trump acted. And effectively reset his entire foreign policy.

“True, in and of itself, the raid will not decisively alter the course of Syria’s civil war.  Assad and his Iranian, Russian and Hizbullah co-combatants still have the upper hand – but no longer a free hand.  After six years of U.S. passivity, there are limits now and the United States will enforce them.

“Nor was the raid the beginning of a campaign for regime change. It was, however, a reassertion of an American stake in both the conduct and the outcome of the war.  America’s abdication is over.  Be warned.

“Moreover, the very swiftness of the response carried a message to the wider world.  Obama is gone.  No more elaborate forensic investigations.  No agonized presidential handwringing over the moral dilemmas of a fallen world.  It took Obama 10 months to decide what to do in Afghanistan. It took Trump 63 hours to make Assad pay for his chemical-weapons duplicity.

“America demonstrated its capacity for swift, decisive action.  And in defense, mind you, of an abstract international norm – a rationale that dramatically overrides the constraints of America First....

“The larger lesson is this: In the end, national interest prevails.  Populist isolationism sounds great, rouses crowds and may even win elections.  But contra White House adviser Stephen Bannon, it’s not a governing foreign policy for the United States....

“With apologies to Lord Palmerston, we don’t have permanent enthusiasms, but we do have permanent interests. And they have a way of asserting themselves. Which is why Bannonism is in eclipse.

“This is not to say that things could not change tomorrow.  We’ve just witnessed one about-face.  With a president who counts unpredictability as a virtue, he could well reverse course again.

“For now, however, the traditionalists are in the saddle.  U.S. policy has been normalized. The world is on notice: Eight years of sleepwalking is over.  America is back.”

Wall Street

Josh Hafner / USA TODAY

“Maybe the swamp will just drain itself?

“President Donald Trump is shedding a slew of positions he flaunted on the campaign trail last year, with the New York billionaire turning his ear to – surprise! – advisers from the world of Wall Street over nationalist folk here and (for now) strategist Steve Bannon.

“Trump’s administration changed tunes on Russia, China, NATO, the Ex-IM Bank, the national debt and that whole ‘America First’ thing, all in a week.

“Who’da thunk a billionaire living in a tower of gold and crystal would forgo campaign promises that appeal to the common man?

“After swearing he’d call China a currency manipulator on ‘Day One’ of his presidency, Trump refused to do so with the Wall Street Journal. ‘They’re not currency manipulators,’ he said.  He went soft on NATO, too, yesterday: ‘I said it was obsolete.  It’s no longer obsolete.’

“Trump once claimed he would do away with America’s nearly $20 trillion debt by the end of his presidency. His budget director recently said ‘that was hyperbole.’  The Ex-IM Bank, which Trump once decried as ‘unnecessary,’ was this week ‘a very good thing.’

“And Trump’s ‘America First’ doctrine took a sudden shift last Thursday after he authorized a missile strike in Syria – a move he criticized Barack Obama for considering in 2013.  With that now comes tensions with Syria’s ally, Russia, and Vladimir Putin, whom Trump praised during his campaign. America’s relations with the nuclear power ‘may be at an all-time low,’ Trump said.

“No worries though, gang. He’s sure it will ‘work out fine.’”

Meanwhile, economists are far less sanguine about future growth prospects for the U.S. economy than they were on, say, Inauguration Day.  As the Wall Street Journal reported Thursday, its latest survey of some 61 financial, academic and business economists, conducted April 7 to April 11, shows that forecasts for the first quarter called for 2.3% growth back in December, which fell to 1.9% in March and today is just 1.4%.  [My favorite Atlanta Fed GDPNow indicator is down to 0.5% for Q1, after Friday’s lousy retail sales figures.]

The reality of a stalled Trump agenda is hitting everyone in the face.  Forget flip-flopping as in all the above.  The foremost goals of repealing and replacing ObamaCare, tax reform, and the launching of a major infrastructure project are seemingly dead in the water.  In January, enactment of all three by August seemed a certainty, at least that is what everyone from Trump to House Speaker Paul Ryan was convincing the business and financial community would be the case.

Josh Zumbrun / Wall Street Journal

“But the collapse of the initiative to ‘repeal and replace’ President Barack Obama’s signature health-care law last month underscored deep divisions in the Republican Party. They could make it difficult to reach consensus on initiatives that could provide economic stimulus, such as lower corporate taxes or federal funding for infrastructure.

“ ‘Many people still remain too invested in Trump’s campaign promises of a large fiscal stimulus program,’ said Bernard Baumohl, chief economist of the Economic Outlook Group.  ‘But as time passes, the lack of follow-through will turn that optimism into disappointment, if not outright skepticism.’”

The S&P 500 is now up a whopping 2.5% since Inauguration Day.  Like whoopty-damn-do, to borrow Derrick Coleman’s phrase (Coleman being a former NBA All-Star and not a Wall Street prognosticator).

And Trump is being helter-skelter with the agenda once again.  Now, he told the Journal and Fox Business this week, he intends to finish dealing with healthcare first, before moving on to tax reform legislation.

“Health care is going to happen at some point,” Trump said on Fox.  “Now, if it doesn’t happen fast enough, I’ll start the taxes.  But the tax reform and the tax cuts are better if I can do health care first.”

After the election consumer confidence, and then business confidence, soared.  But, again, reality has a way of waking people up, whether it be on the geopolitical or economic fronts.

And once again House Republicans are acting like a surly mob.  Many are fearful that the failure on their part to repeal ObamaCare has spelled doom for the rest of Trump’s agenda.

As Scotty Wong of The Hill writes:

“Some Capitol Hill Republicans have envisioned the nightmare scenario for 2017, and it goes like this: No ObamaCare repeal.  No tax reform.  No trillion-dollar infrastructure package.  No border wall.

“It’s a striking change from the period after Election Day, when GOP leaders vowed that the new unified Republican government would ‘go big, go bold’ and deliver for the American people.

“While many Republicans hold out hope the ObamaCare repeal bill will be revived, skeptics say the GOP infighting during last month’s healthcare collapse may have poisoned the well for future big-ticket legislative deals.  ‘I don’t see how you put a coalition together to deal with tax reform,’ said one House Republican who is close to Speaker Paul Ryan and his leadership team.  ‘Unless we can bridge this divide and get a win on the board, I don’t know how we pull the other things together, all the other big things we gotta do.’....

“And the recriminations among Republicans only seem to be getting nastier.

“Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.), the head of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, ‘is a pathological liar who isn’t interest in getting to yes,’ one House GOP colleague of Meadows told The Hill in a fit of frustration over the stalled health negotiations.

“But Rep. Raul Labrador (R-Idaho), a fellow Freedom Caucus leader, defended Meadows as ‘a man of great integrity.’  ‘When members of Congress resort to personal attacks while hiding behind anonymity,’ Labrador said, ‘it’s usually because their position is weak in the first place.’”

When it comes to tax reform, Speaker Ryan is convinced he can unify everyone around the topic, but you start out with major resistance to Ryan’s proposed border-adjustment plan, which would impose a 20 percent tax on imports, and kill the likes of Wal-Mart.  On this topic, Trump himself is all over the place.

For now, Congress needs to quickly pass a spending bill by April 28 to avert at least a partial government shutdown.  Seeing as the House isn’t scheduled to return from its recess until April 25, this won’t be easy.

As for the economic numbers on this holiday-shortened week, we had a few releases.

Producer prices for March were -0.1%, 2.3% year-over-year, while the core figure, ex-food and energy, was unchanged for the month and 1.6% the past 12.

Consumer prices fell 0.3%, with the CPI now up 2.4% yoy, while the core was -0.1%, 2.0% the last 12 months.

Retail sales for March fell 0.2% after -0.3% in February.  But the core, ex-gasoline, autos and other stuff, rose 0.5%.

And then there’s this...a favorite topic of mine since the first “Week in Review.”

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“President Obama left his successor many time bombs – think chemical weapons in Syria and the collapsing Affordable Care Act. But a burning fuse that gets less attention showed its first signs of the explosion to come in Friday’s Congressional Budget Office review for March: Rising net interest payments on the national debt.

“CBO reported that the federal budget deficit rose $63 billion in the first half of fiscal 2017 (October-March) to $522 billion from a year earlier.  But here’s the especially bad omen: Net interest payments rose $7 billion, or 30%, in March from a year earlier.

“If that seems small, consider that interest payments rose $28 billion for the six months of fiscal 2017 to $152 billion.  That’s a 22.2% increase, among the biggest in any single spending item highlighted by CBO. The increases reflect the growing debt but in particular the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates after years of near-zero rates.

“While Mr. Obama was doubling the national debt over eight years, the Fed’s monetary policies spared him from the fiscal consequences.  The Fed’s near-zero policy kept interest rates at historic lows that reduced net interest payments even as the overall debt increased.  The Fed’s bond-buying programs also earned money that the Fed turned over to Treasury each year, reducing the size of the federal budget deficit by tens of billions of dollars.

“This not-so-free Fed lunch is starting to end.

“All of this is about to explode on President Trump’s watch, and it will complicate the task for Republicans as they try to reform the tax code within tighter budget constraints.”

Europe and Asia

News out of Europe has been minimal as governments are in the midst of their own recesses and there have been few economic releases.

Germany’s inflation rate cooled off in March, 1.5% annualized after hitting a four-year high of 2.2% in February, according to Destatis.  This would appear to be the case throughout Europe, which means the European Central Bank won’t be pulling its quantitative easing program anytime soon, though the level of monthly purchases is going to be reduced per a prior schedule from May through the balance of the year.

In the U.K., retail sales in the first quarter were down 0.7% year-over-year, but exports are running at their best pace since the fourth quarter of 2014.  Regarding the consumer, wages aren’t growing faster than inflation and it’s forcing them to cut back, especially with the Brexit uncertainty.  The official consumer price index for March was 2.3%.  [Britain is an exception to the rest of Europe in terms of inflation because of the collapse in sterling.]

Separately, London’s housing market appears to have hit its worst patch since the financial crisis, though prices are still expected to rise over the coming 12 months.

But with politicians taking some time off and Brexit negotiations not slated to begin in earnest until a European summit end of the month, the big story is the French presidential election, the first round of voting in just one week, April 23.

Suddenly it is a four-way contest, and a tight one, with the latest poll showing Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen tied at 24%, while far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon, who has been surging, comes in at 18% and Francois Fillon at 17%.  [Kantar Sofres poll]

The Melenchon surge has shaken the financial markets as there is now a possibility, albeit a very slight one, that Melenchon and Le Pen could finish 1-2, guaranteeing a radical shift at the top.

The Communist-backed far-left Melenchon is the best orator of the four and he has been drawing large crowds who are regaled with tales of the evils of “extreme markets that are transforming suffering, misery and abandonment into gold and money.”  He alludes to France as a country “with huge wealth that is badly distributed,” while denouncing U.S. air strikes in Syria and calling for France to leave NATO.  His plan to spend his way out of France’s economic woes is also unsettling to the markets.  All you need to know is that the yield premium between the German and French 10-year bonds is now 73 basis points, 0.18% in Germany, 0.91% in France, which has been increasing the past two weeks as Melenchon gains in the polls and Le Pen holds her own.

IF there was a shock on April 23 and it’s, say, Le Pen 24%, Melenchon 22% and Macron 21%, all hell would truly break loose.

Look for major fireworks this last week on the campaign trail.  In Melenchon, Russia suddenly has someone new to support as well.

A few other tidbits....

Swedish authorities said the 39-year-old man suspected of driving a truck into a crowd in downtown Stockholm, killing four and injuring 15, had sought residency in Sweden in 2014, a request the state denied in June last year.  In late February, police issued a warrant in his name for failing to report for his deportation.  The commander for the Swedish police said, “He had gone missing. He was not present at the address that he had provided.”

In the first 10 months of 2016, nearly 70% of the individuals in 6,647 deportation cases police received from the immigration agency had absconded.

A major tragedy was averted when Borussia Dortmund’s team bus was targeted by a bomb attack on Tuesday night before a Champions League clash with Monaco in Dortmund, Germany, but the three explosions only injured one player and a motorcycle policeman, neither seriously, though the player, Marc Bartra, will miss a month or two of action with a broken right wrist.  It was  a suspected terror attack.

Turning to Asia, some economic news out of China. March exports came in much stronger than expected, up 16.4%, in $ terms, vs. 4% growth in the first two months of the year...the volatile Lunar New Year holiday period.  Imports rose 20.3%, though this was down from the 26% pace of January/February.  The exports number is a strong sign of strengthening external demand.

March producer prices rose 7.6% year-over-year, down slightly from February’s 7.8% pace, which was a nine-year high. Consumer prices rose 0.9% annualized in March vs. February’s 0.8% pace.

Domestic auto sales rose 4% in March over the past 12 months, though this compares to 22.4% the prior month, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.

Street Bytes

--Stocks fell a second straight week, down 1% on the Dow Jones to 20453, 1.1% for the S&P 500 and 1.2% for Nasdaq, which is down two weeks in a row for the first time this year.

As noted above, it’s not just the fact there are serious doubts about implementation of the Trump pro-growth agenda, but for the first time in quite a while, geopolitics is at the forefront.

--U.S. Treasury Yields

6-mo. 0.92%  2-yr. 1.21%  10-yr. 2.24%  30-yr. 2.89%

While this isn’t an issue until 2018, when Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s term expires, Trump told the Wall Street Journal he was open to bringing her back. He has to re-nominate Yellen and she would have to accept for her to stay on.  Trump, who was highly critical of Yellen and the Fed during the campaign, said, “I like her, I respect her.”

--According to the latest S&P Indices Versus Active funds scorecard, over the 15 years ended in December 2016, 82% of all U.S. equity funds trailed their respective benchmarks.  That’s certainly a full market cycle.  [Daisy Maxey and Chris Dieterich / Wall Street Journal]

--Crude oil retreated at week’s end after a string of advances following a government report that showed U.S. production climbed to the highest level in more than a year, offsetting data on declining stockpiles.  [Oil still finished up on the week overall to $52.91 on West Texas Intermediate.]

Inventories fell more than expected, 2.17 million barrels to 533.4 million, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday.  Prices had risen earlier on reports Saudi Arabia would support an extension of OPEC-led production cuts.

But at the same time, you continue to see rising U.S. output that could counter OPEC’s reductions.  In its monthly report, also Wednesday, OPEC boosted estimates for rival suppliers as shale drillers continue to emerge from their two-year slump.

American crude production rose by 36,000 barrels a day to 9.24 million barrels a day in the week ended April 7, the most since January 2016.  The rig count also rose to 672 last week, as reported by Baker Hughes, the most since August 2015.  [And now 683 this week.]

Add it all up and the International Energy Agency said on Thursday that the global oil market is “very close” to coming into balance, but cautioned that weaker demand growth and strong U.S. production mean OPEC’s attempts to curb supplies remains challenging.

--What a week for United Continental Holdings Inc., parent of United Airlines, after United ordered a passenger forcibly removed from a plane in Chicago shortly before departure Sunday to make room for a United employee.  CEO Oscar Munoz’ initial response, that United had to “re-accommodate” the man, turned the airline into a punch line on social media.  The man, Dr. David Dao, was bloodied in the encounter with security officials, the video of which went viral.

In a subsequent letter to employees, Munoz said the customer was “disruptive” and “belligerent” when he wouldn’t relinquish his seat.  It took almost 24 hours before Munoz struck a different tone.

“The truly horrific event that occurred on this flight has elicited many responses from all of us: outrage, anger, disappointment,” he said in a statement Tuesday.  “I deeply apologize to the customer forcibly removed and to all the customers aboard. No one should ever be mistreated this way.”

Wednesday, Munoz said the carrier would no longer rely on law enforcement to remove seated, paying customers.  “This can never, will never, happen again on a United Airlines flight,” he said on ABC’s “Good Morning America.”  Munoz said he has also committed to a thorough review of United’s policies for handling oversold flights.

But the damage was long done.  Social media had a field day.  In China, a crucial part of United’s lucrative trans-Pacific network, the incident was a focus of both social media and editorials.  David Dao appeared to be of Asian descent, and we learned on Thursday he is Vietnamese, not Chinese. Dao, Wednesday, was said to be receiving treatment in a Chicago hospital for his injuries, according to a statement from his lawyers.

Later, United announced that every passenger aboard Flight 3411 bound for Louisville would get a refund following the chaotic removal of Dao.

Then Thursday, attorney Thomas Demetrio, part of a team representing Dr. Dao, said his client had suffered a concussion, a broken nose and two lost teeth, and that he would need reconstructive surgery.  He was discharged from the hospital on Wednesday.

Demetrio said Dao told him “that he left Vietnam in 1975, when Saigon fell, and he was on a boat, and he said he was terrified. He said that being dragged down the aisle was more horrifying and terrible than what he experienced in leaving Vietnam.”

Demetrio acknowledged Dao could have chosen to comply with the airline and officers’ instructions to leave the aircraft.  Under federal law, airlines are allowed to remove passengers from a flight for failing to comply with instructions from the crew.

Just two weeks earlier, United had suffered social media scorn for enforcing its employee dress code for those who fly as non-revenue passengers, such as relatives of employees.  Two young girls flying from Denver were told to change their leggings before boarding.  The airline was forced to tell “our regular customers” that “leggings are welcome.”

John Podhoretz / New York Post

“In 1962, the baseball veteran Casey Stengel took on the job of manager of the newly minted New York Mets, who were so bad in their first year that he famously asked, ‘Can’t anybody here play this game?’

“Fifty-five years later, Americans can be forgiven for wondering the same this week – except we aren’t talking about a ragtag expansion team made up of players discarded from other ball clubs but about important American institutions ranging from the world’s third-largest airline to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. 

“And this ain’t no game.

“The decline of public faith in our institutions – from the media to Congress to banks to the presidency to businesses to places of worship – is among the most serious crises of our time. It breeds cynicism, lack of trust and a general feeling of social and cultural unsteadiness, as though the pillars supporting our way of life are hollow and crumbling.

“We need those pillars.  But any effort to convince people that they should trust the pillars to bear the weight of a complex and troubled society is not only a fool’s errand, it’s foolhardy.

“When America’s leaders act not with discretion and care and seriousness of purpose – as everyone hopes those responsible for maintaining the infrastructure of our civil society would and should – but rather with ass-covering incompetence, why should people trust these leaders to know what they’re doing or have anyone’s best interests at heart other than their own?

“Why should they have confidence that anybody knows what he’s doing?

“The shocking manhandling of Dr. David Dao on United Airlines Flight 367 was a horrible spectacle – but it was the insulting, Orwellian and craven behavior of United’s chief executive that turned a dreadful incident into a corporate meltdown. At every point in the scandal thus far, Oscar Munoz has responded in a way that degrades what little goodwill any American traveler might have for the airline he has managed since 2015.

“First, he blamed the passenger and told United personnel he had their backs.  Then he expressed regret for having had to ‘re-accommodate’ Dr. Dao by having goons force him off a plane Dao had been invited to board. And then he threw himself on the mercy of the court of public opinion by saying, ‘My initial words fell short of truly expressing the shame.’

“In March, Munoz was named ‘Communicator of the Year’ by PRWeek Magazine. In other words, he’s supposed to be really good at this business of, you know, communicating.”

As reported this week, Dr. Dao has had numerous run-ins with the law, but just as in some of the police abuse cases, a victim’s prior record has nothing to do with the specific circumstances of the case, and on the issue of Dao, I’ll leave it at that.

By the way, according to the Department of Transportation, the easiest way to reduce the risk of being bumped on a flight is to get to the airport early.  For passengers in the same fare class, the last passengers to check in are usually the first to be bumped.

--JPMorgan Chase got third-quarter reporting season for the financials off to a solid start Thursday, posting a 17 percent rise in net income despite signs of a marked slowdown in the retail banking unit.  Earnings per share of $1.65 were comfortably ahead of expectations.

Net revenues for the period of $24.68bn were slightly below estimates, though the investment banking unit saw revenues climb 36 percent to $1.8bn.  The retail unit – JPM’s biggest by revenues – saw a 39 percent drop in mortgage fees amid a sharp pick-up in interest rates.  Overall, revenues from the consumer and community banking unit dropped 1 percent, to just shy of $11bn.

With two interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve in recent months, the big retail banks have been able to boost their net interest margins – or the gap between the yield on their assets and the rates they pay to borrow money, and banks like Chase have managed to hold the line on deposits while charging more for loans.

--Citigroup posted a better than expected 17 percent rise in quarterly profits, propelled by revenue growth in its institutional business, up 16 percent to $9.13bn..

Overall, revenues climbed 3 percent to $18.12bn, also exceeding the Street’s forecast.  Investment banking revenues surged 39 percent to $1.21 billion.  The fixed income trading unit saw a rise of 19 percent to $3.62bn.

But, as in the case of JPM, the consumer banking unit’s revenues rose just 1 percent.

--Wells Fargo saw its net income fall 1 percent in the first three months of 2017 to $5.06bn, as it continues to suffer from its bogus customer account scandal. Revenues also eased 1 percent, to $22bn.

Credit-card applications plunged by 42 percent, to 200,000, during the first quarter, the bank announced.  New checking account applications fell by 35 percent, to 400,000.

--Separately, in a scathing 113-page report, Wells Fargo’s board released the results of its six-month investigation into the conditions and culture that prompted thousands of the bank’s employees to create millions of fraudulent accounts in an attempt to meet sales targets.

Wells’ board said Monday that it would claw back an additional $75 million in compensation from the two executives on whom it pinned the most blame, former CEO John Stumpf, and the former head of community banking, Carrie Tolstedt.

The board’s report blamed a decentralized structure that gave department heads like Ms. Tolstedt broad authority to “run it like you own it,” and so some of the problems went unnoticed for a long time.  Then, when the Los Angeles Times first broke the story of the fake accounts, management was too slow to take action.

Stumpf was hands-off to the extreme, it seems.  As for Tolstedt, she turned a blind eye to signs that some managers and employees were cheating to meet their sales goals.

--Barclays PLC CEO Jes Staley will be reprimanded and the bank will cut his pay after regulators began an investigation into how he tried to unmask a whistleblower last year. Staley admitted his error and formally apologized to the board.

--Tesla’s market value, which had exceeded Ford Motor Co.’s last week, surpassed General Motors’ on Monday (though finished the week slightly below).  AutoNation Inc. CEO Mike Jackson said during an interview that the auto maker “is either one of the great Ponzi schemes of all time” or will eventually work out for investors.

Jackson called Tesla overvalued and GM undervalued, arguing the former will continue to struggle making money selling electric cars despite its loyal following. Competition will be a growing issue.

As long as gasoline prices are relatively cheap, the market share for electric vehicles will be just a sliver of that of trucks and SUVs.

Jackson told an audience in New York the other day, “This shift to sport-utility vehicles – it is permanent, it is structural, it is long term, because customers passionately love these vehicles.”

Thursday, Tesla shares rose anew after Elon Musk tweeted that the automaker would unveil its pickup truck in September, or what he calls its “semi-truck.”  “Team has done an amazing job.  Seriously next level.”

--According to the California Department of Water Resources, as of Thursday, an astonishing 89.7 inches of precipitation had fallen across a zone of eight stations in the northern Sierra since October, breaking the record 88.5 inches that fell during the 1982-83 rainy season.

Last week, Gov. Jerry Brown announced the drought was over in California except in four counties.

--The following could be important for your younger children.  In reading my latest issue of Army Times (aka Military Times), there is a story on “In-demand cyber skills” and the “10 best cybersecurity programs,” all NSA accredited; meaning they are on the National Security Agency’s list of “National Centers of Academic Excellence in Cyber Defense Education.” 

This article is geared for army vets, but of course it’s all about finding lifetime security and employment for everyone.

1. Syracuse Univ.
2. Univ. of Nebraska at Omaha
3. Drexel Univ.
4. Bellevue Univ. (Bellevue, Neb.)
5. Univ. of Maryland College (Adelphi, Md.)
6. Florida State Univ.
7. University of South Florida
8. Lewis University (Romeoville, Ill.)
9. Armstrong State Univ. (Savannah, Ga.)
10. Towson Univ.

--Editorial / New York Post

“It’s up to the courts as to whether Arturo Di Modica has any legal right to stop the ‘Fearless Girl’ statue from destroying the meaning of his own ‘Charging Bull’ – but he’s clearly right to call out that truth.

“At his own expense ($350,000), the Italian sculptor created the bull decades ago to symbolize the strength and resilience of Wall Street.  But the girl (though a fine work in its own right) turns his bull into a symbol of...sexism.

“Adding insult to injury, State Street Global Advisors installed ‘Fearless Girl’ as an advertising ploy – with a plaque that even subtly promoted the company’s SHE investment fund.  Should an ad be allowed to destroy Di Modica’s art?....

“The offending statue can still make its point if placed elsewhere, (Modica) argues – say, facing not the bull, but the Stock Exchange itself.

“State Street, and the city, should consider that move: It might even strengthen the message of ‘Fearless Girl.’”

It’s been decades since I worked down in this area, but the bull was actually an easy meeting place after work.  I can’t say it had any special meaning to me, but it’s a very cool work of art and in the appropriate place.

‘Fearless Girl’?  C’mon.  There are a hundred other places it could be downtown.

But to compound things, Mayor Bill de Blasio says it will stay, because, of course, he is running for reelection and he has to appease a particular base who care nothing about Mr. Modica’s rights.

--Embattled Fox News host Bill O’Reilly went on a little vacation this week, with a slated return of April 24; this in the midst of a sexual harassment scandal and advertiser boycott, so for all we know, it could be a suspension.

Some believe, though, that Tuesday night’s show may have been his last.  As reported by Gabriel Sherman of New York magazine, “Lawyers for the law firm Paul, Weiss, hired last summer by 21st Century Fox to investigate Roger Ailes, are currently doing a ‘deep dive’ investigation into O’Reilly’s behavior. They’re focused now on sexual harassment claims by O’Reilly guest Wendy Walsh after she reported her experiences via the company’s anonymous hotline.”

O’Reilly’s future is in the hands of the Murdochs.  “It’s up to the family,” a senior Fox News staffer told Sherman. The Murdochs are divided over how to handle it.

CEO James Murdoch apparently wants O’Reilly gone, while father Rupert, and older brother, Lachlan, want to keep him.  It was James who won out last year in the ouster of Ailes.

Despite the scandal, O’Reilly’s ratings were up last week after the reports the network shelled out $13 million to five women who accused him of sexual harassment and improper conduct. Compared with the same week last year, the audience was up 28% in total viewers and 42% in the key 25-54 demographic.

--I saw where revenue at Connecticut’s two Indian casinos fell for the ninth straight year amid growing competition in the Northeast, according to a report released Tuesday.  Nathan Associates Inc., an economic consulting firm, also notes the figures for 2015 (latest available), which exclude revenue from accommodations and shows – are down by 36% from the last peak in 2006.  [Wall Street Journal]

--“Kong: Skull Island” continues to rake it in in China, now up to $161 million, according to film industry consultancy Artisan Gateway.  It helps to have a Chinese actress, Jing Tian, in the flick.

“Kong” has generated $536 million in worldwide receipts as of last weekend.  So far, the beast seems to be handling his renewed stardom fairly well, given his rather surly disposition.

--Lastly, we note the passing of Eugene M. Lang, an investor whose spur-of-the-moment promise to an East Harlem sixth-grade graduating class that he would pay for their college education inspired a foundation, led to the support of more than 16,000 children nationwide and made him a bit of an American folk hero, with stories on “60 Minutes” and other news shows.  Lang, 98,  died at his Manhattan home last weekend. 

Lang was a self-made businessman who, as the New York Times put it, “flew coach class and traveled on subways and buses,” yet contributed more than $150 million to charities and institutions during his lifetime, including a single $50 million gift in 2012 to Swarthmore College in Pennsylvania, his alma mater.

But it was his decision in June 1981, which I well remember from local news coverage, when he was invited to give a sixth grade commencement address at Public School 121 on East 103rd Street, for which he is best known.

“I looked out at that audience of almost entirely black and Hispanic students, wondering what to say to them,” he recalled. He had intended to tell them, their families and their teachers that he had attended P.S. 121 more than a half-century earlier, that he had worked hard and made a lot of money and that if they worked hard, maybe they could be successful, too.

But, he said, “it dawned on me that the commencement banalities I planned were completely irrelevant.”

“So I began by telling them that one of my most memorable experiences was Martin Luther King’s ‘I Have a Dream’ speech, and that everyone should have a dream,” he said.  “Then I decided to tell them I’d give a scholarship to every member of the class admitted to a four-year college.”

Lang was invited to the White House by President Reagan as his story spread.

But he had been told that maybe one or two of the students would actually take advantage of the offer.

So Lang “adopted” the class, treating them to trips and restaurant meals, and counseled them through crises, and in the end, at least half of the 61 enrolled in public and private colleges.  Of those who passed up college, Lang often found them jobs.

[The Daily News reported that some students were bitter when they misunderstood the offer as a promise to pay tuition even at expensive colleges.]

So in keeping with the above, this week New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced his much-heralded new program for free tuition at state colleges, everyone cheered, and then people realized, hey, this is hardly the great deal it’s cranked up to be.

Under a provision added to the tuition bill at the last moment, students who get a free ride at CUNY and SUNY schools must live and work in New York state for up to four years after graduation, or be forced to pay the money back.

When I first heard of the program, and the cost, it seemed pretty minimal for the scope being discussed, and then you realize it’s just tuition, and not housing, books, meal plans and transportation costs which can easily rival or exceed the cost of tuition.  Plus you are required to carry 15 credits, which makes it difficult to take a job to pay for the other expenses.

And as Crain’s New York Business reports: “private, nonprofit schools must remain an option for anyone considering a college education” and the Excelsior Scholarships close the door on New York schools “with a proven record of maximizing graduates’ earning power, without regard to socioeconomic status.”

Schools such as Pace University, which a 2017 study ranked first in New York and second in the nation “at moving students from the bottom of the income scale to the top 20%.  Yet the governor’s proposal excludes Pace and more than 100 other private colleges and universities in the state.”

[A long, long time ago, when I had my first job on Wall Street, I took some MBA classes at night at Pace.  Excellent school, but it was nuts from a time commitment standpoint.]

Foreign Affairs

North Korea: National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster on Sunday defended the administration’s move to send a carrier strike group toward the Korean Peninsula.

“It’s prudent to do it, isn’t it?” McMaster said on “Fox News Sunday.”

“North Korea has been engaged in a pattern of provocative behavior.  This is a rogue regime that is now a nuclear-capable regime.”

McMaster said that Chinese President Xi and President Trump agree that a nuclear regime in Pyongyang is unacceptable.

“That what must happen is the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula,” he said.  “And so the president has asked us to be prepared to give him a full range of options to remove that threat to the American people and to our allies and partners in the region.”

The U.S., aside from lobbying China heavily, is reportedly preparing tough new sanctions that would involve an oil embargo, intercepting cargo ships and banning the country’s airline, Air Koryo.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said, “Military force cannot resolve the issue.  Whoever provokes the situation, whoever continues to make trouble in this place, they will have to assume historical responsibility.”

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said North Korea may have the ability to launch missiles carrying deadly sarin gas at his country.

Pyongyang warned Trump that it is prepared for war and is ready to use its “powerful nuclear deterrent.”

Vice foreign minister Han Song Ryol blamed Trump for building up a “vicious cycle” of tensions on the Korean Peninsula, saying that his “aggressive” tweets were “making trouble.”

Meanwhile, Chinese state media has been harsh on Pyongyang, a rarity. The Global Times, a government mouthpiece, warned Beijing would support stiffer action against its historical ally.

“More and more Chinese support the view that the government should enhance sanctions over Pyongyang’s nuclear activities,” the paper editorialized.  ‘If the North makes another provocative move this month, the Chinese society will be willing to see the [UN Security Council] adopt severe restrictive measures that have never been seen before, such as restricting oil imports to the North.”

Saturday is North Korea’s “Day of the Sun” celebration, marking the 105th anniversary of the birth of Kim Il Sung, the country’s founder.

The Trump administration has given its assurances that any action it decides to take will first be cleared with the South Korean government, which politicians there are demanding.

Afghanistan: The United States dropped the most powerful non-nuclear bomb in its arsenal on an ISIS stronghold in Afghanistan, Thursday, a strike that President Trump hailed as “very, very successful,” and which Afghan defense officials said resulted in at least 36 deaths, no civilian casualties, though they later hedged on the total of ISIS killed.

It was the first time the bomb – which packs the punch of 11 tons of TNT and was created in 2003 for possible use in Iraq – was employed on the battlefield. 

The bomb, officially called the GBU-43/B, exploded while still in the air, creating a huge downward shockwave that is meant to collapse the tunnels.

The U.S. estimated that 600 to 800 ISIS fighters were on the ground at the time.. ISIS has been conducting strikes on government and U.S. forces in the area while battling the rival Taliban.

Last week, U.S. Army Special Forces soldier, Staff Sgt. Mark De Alencar, 37, of Edgewood, Md., was killed in action in there, Nangarhar Province, near the Pakistani border.

Trump, in lauding the mission, said he had authorized the military to act.

“We have the greatest military in the world, and they’ve done a great job as usual.  We have given them total authorization, and that’s what they’re doing, and frankly, that’s why they’ve been so successful lately,” he said.  Then Trump took a shot at Barack Obama.

“If you look at what’s happened over the last eight weeks and compare that really to what’s happened over the past eight years, you’ll see there’s a tremendous difference, tremendous difference,” Trump said.

When asked if the bomb was meant to send a message to North Korea, the president said: “I don’t know if this sends a message.  It doesn’t make any difference if it does or not.  North Korea is a problem, the problem will be taken care of.”

Editorial / Haaretz

“As statements go, few say more than a 10-ton bomb.  In this case, when it’s being dropped on a foreign battlefield on the orders of a new president who campaigned on an isolationist platform, the GBU-43 Massive Ordnance Air Blast, better known as MOAB or the largest non-nuclear bomb ever used operationally, is a message designed to send shockwaves much further afield than Afghanistan’s Nangarhar Province.

“The official reason for using the MOAB was to destroy an underground cave and tunnel complex from which fighters of the ISIS branch in Afghanistan were operating against U.S. and Afghan troops.  However, this isn’t the first time in the last thirteen years, during which the GBU-43 has been operational, that American troops have faced a fierce enemy underground. In previous cases smaller munitions were used.  Each MOAB costs about $16 million.  It’s too large to be launched from a regular fighter-jet and is instead dropped by a specially modified MC-130, a version of the venerable Hercules transport plane used by Special Forces.

Only fifteen such bombs are known to have been manufactured, and they were being kept for a different mission. Together with the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP), which is designed to be launched from B-2 stealth bombers and penetrate rock and reinforced concrete and explode underground, the MOAB was to be used in a possible American strike against Iran’s underground nuclear installations.  For now, the nuclear deal with Iran is holding and the MOPs and MOABs can be used against other targets.

“While the Pentagon’s official version is that it was the operational commanders who authorized the use of this specific weapon, it is inconceivable that expending such a devastating and rare strategic munition could have been done without the president’s OK.  This wasn’t just a technical-tactical choice of weapon.  This was a message....

“To the folks at home, the message is that this administration isn’t gunning just for the Assad regime – it’s still going after ISIS, only using bigger and better weapons than Obama did.  To the Kremlin, to Kim Jong-Un and to the Iranians, the message is that this president doesn’t hesitate to use everything America’s arsenals have to offer.  Whether there’s a plan here, still remains to be seen.

“If Trump was a spiritual or learned man, he may have been motivated by the sixtieth chapter in Psalms describing King David’s conquests – ‘Moab is my washpot; over Edom will I cast out my shoe: Philistia, triumph thou because of me.’  But he is neither, he’s a man about town.  Instead it is more accurate to say that MOAB is Trump’s statement weapon.”

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“As demonstration effects go, it would be hard to top the bomb the U.S. dropped Thursday on Islamic State in Afghanistan. The 21,000 pound GBU-43, or ‘mother of all bombs,’ landed on Islamic State installations in eastern Afghanistan.

“What happened at the receiving end of the bomb isn’t known, nor would White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer say whether President Trump personally gave authorization, which isn’t needed to deploy the GBU-43.  But like the 59 Tomahawk cruise missiles that struck a Syrian airfield last week, the right people no doubt noticed this display of American purpose.

“At the top of the list would be Islamic State, which Mr. Trump has promised to eliminate.  The terrorist group has seized territory in Afghanistan’s Nangarhar Province, near the border with Pakistan.  The Afghan army, supported by the U.S., has taken significant losses in its attempt to dislodge ISIS.  The commander of U.S. forces in Afghanistan, Gen. John Nicholson, called the GBU-43 smart bomb the ‘right munition’ to ‘maintain momentum’ against ISIS....

“Momentum routinely wilts beneath the politics and factions across the Middle East.  The strike against Syria and now the use in Afghanistan of the biggest non-nuclear bomb in the active U.S. arsenal makes clear America’s resolve to our allies.  Islamic State won’t be defeated without buy-in from those allies.

“We may also assume that the missile-launching crowd in Pyongyang noticed the deployment of the GBU-43.  Far be it from us to suggest that the U.S. drop one on a North Korean nuclear factory. But in the space of a week, Kim Jong Un, Vladimir Putin, Bashar Assad, Xi Jinping and ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, wherever he is hiding, have learned that the U.S. considers it to be in its interest to push back hard against its adversaries’ aggression.”

Turkey: Turks go to the polls on Sunday in a huge referendum on whether to make President Recep Tayyip Erdogan a strongman, unchecked by any real separation of powers.  The aim of Sunday’s vote is to give the president immunity before the courts and remove any accountability to parliament.  His loyalists say this will allow him to get the nation through its many challenges, from a struggling economy to multiple terrorist attacks.

Recent polls, however, have showed half of the population not wanting to support one-man rule.  The stakes are enormous.

Daniel Pipes / Wall Street Journal

“This Sunday, millions of Turks will vote to endorse or reject constitutional amendments passed in January by Turkey’s Parliament.  An opinion piece published by the German news agency Deutsche Welle explains that the ‘crucial’ amendments ‘give all the power to one person, with almost no accountability,’ eliminating what is left of democracy in Turkey.  Virtually all observers agree that if the referendum passes, Turkey will be transformed into an authoritarian state.

“I, along with a few others, disagree.  Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan years ago arrogated all the powers that the constitutional changes would bestow on him.  He is already lord of all he sees for as long as he wants, whether through democratic means or by fixing election results.  If the referendum passes, it will merely prettify that reality.

“Consider the nature of Mr. Erdogan’s power.  The obsequious prime minister, Binali Yildirim, tirelessly advocates for the constitutional changes that will eliminate his own office, historically the most powerful in the country.  Criticism of the almighty president can get even a child thrown into jail. The most tenuous connection to a (possibly staged) coup d’etat attempt last July means losing one’s job – or worse.  The state routinely jails journalists on the bogus charge of terrorism, and truly independent publications are shuttered.

“If Mr. Erdogan has no need for constitutional changes, which amount to a legislative triviality, why does he obsessively chase them?  Perhaps as added insurance against ever being hauled into court for his illegal actions.  Perhaps to assure a handpicked successor the power to continue his program.  Perhaps to flatter his vanity.

‘Whatever the source of Mr. Erdogan’s compulsion, it greatly damages Turkey’s standing in the world.  When his aides were not permitted to rally Turks living in Germany for the constitutional changes, he accused the Germans of ‘employing Nazi measures.’  He also compared the Netherlands to a banana republic after Turkish ministers were prevented from speaking in Rotterdam.  This souring of relations has already led to a breakdown in military ties with Germany....

“This insistence on doing things his way fits a pattern.  Mr. Erdogan could have won visa-free travel for Turks traveling to Europe, but he refused a meaningless change to the definition of terrorism in Turkey’s criminal code.  He harms relations with Washington by making the extradition of Turkish cleric Fethullah Gulen a personal fixation.  He potentially disrupts relations with 35 countries by setting his intelligence agencies to spy on pro-Gulen Turks....

“Where will it end? The president has two apparent objectives. First, Mr. Erdogan seeks to reverse Kemal Ataturk’s westernizing reforms to reinstitute the Ottoman Empire’s Islamic ways. Second, he wants to elevate himself to the grand, ancient Islamic position of caliph, an especially vivid prospect since Islamic State resurrected this long-moribund position in 2014.

“Those two ambitions could meld together exactly 100 years after Ataturk abolished the caliphate, either on March 10, 2021 (by the Islamic calendar), or March 4, 2024 (by the Christian calendar).  Either of these dates offers a perfect occasion for Mr. Erdogan to undo the handiwork of the secular Ataturk and declare himself caliph of all Muslims."

Syria, part II: A U.S.-led coalition air strike on Tuesday mistakenly killed 18 members of the Syrian Democratic Forces south of the city of Tabqa, Syria, the Pentagon announced on Thursday.  “The strike was requested by the partnered forces, who had identified the target location as an ISIS fighting position,” it said in a statement.  “The target location was actually a forward Syrian Democratic Forces fighting position.”

Meanwhile, the Assad regime showed no sign it was deterred by the U.S. cruise missile strike on one of its air bases, launching a wave of airstrikes against the opposition last weekend.

Antigovernment activist groups said Sunday that some of the strikes used chlorine gas, as well as possibly napalm.

Assad was emboldened by the support of Iran and Russia.

Egypt: Palm Sunday proved to be Bloody Sunday in Egypt as the Coptic Christian community was ripped apart by two separate church bombings that killed at least 45 people in two cities, in an act of unbelievable cruelty.  Islamic State claimed responsibility.

Since December, ISIS, routed from its Libyan stronghold, and besieged in Iraq and Syria, has sought a new battleground and it has selected Egypt, slaughtering Christians in their homes, businesses and places of worship.  ISIS also seeks to weaken Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, while gaining a foothold beyond the remote Sinai.

I’ve told you that despite President Trump’s effusive praise of Sisi, the Egyptian leader is very weak and these two attacks further align the people against him and his ability to keep them safe.

Iran: Former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad filed to run in the country’s May presidential election, contradicting a recommendation from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to stay out of the race.  Election officials were stunned when Ahmadinejad submitted his application Wednesday.

Another hardline Iranian cleric, Ebrahim Raisi, also announced he would run for president. Raisi is seen as being close to Ayatollah Khamenei.

Polls are set for May 19 and Khamenei’s preference, whoever it may be, one would think will emerge victorious as opposition to ‘moderate’ President Rohani rises.

Rohani’s favorability rating has declined from 61% (“very favorable”) just after the Iranian nuclear deal to just 28% today, according to a University of Maryland public opinion poll conducted a few months ago.

Rohani officially registered to run for a second term on Friday.  He won in a landslide in 2013 on a platform of ending the Islamic Republic’s diplomatic isolation and creating a freer society.  But the economy did not rebound as expected with the lifting of sanctions.

Russia, cont’d:  Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev fiercely rebuked President Trump for authorizing the airstrikes on Syria.  Appearing on his Facebook page, the Moscow Times translated the text into English:

“That’s it.  The last of the campaign fog has disappeared.  Instead of the theory he disseminated about working together to fight the main enemy – ISIS, the Islamic State – the Trump administration has proved that it will viciously fight the legitimate government of Syria – in blatant violation of the norms of international law, without the approval of the UN, violating [the United States’] own procedures establishing the need to notify Congress about any military operation that isn’t tied to an attack on the U.S., and on the verge of a conflict with Russia.

“No one exaggerates the value of campaign promises, but there are nonetheless the bounds of decency.  Beyond them is absolute distrust.  What’s really sad here is our completely ruined relationship. And this, of course, only encourages the terrorists.

“And furthermore the U.S. president has proved with his military action both his lack of originality and his extreme dependence on the opinion of the Washington establishment, which sharply criticized the new president’s inauguration speech.  Immediately after his election, I knew everything would depend on how quickly the existing machine could crush Trump’s campaign promises.  It took two and a half months....”

Meanwhile, Russian opposition politician Alexei Navalny, having served his brief prison sentence for his role in demonstrations that swept Russia on March 26, is calling for a new round of protests that would take place on June 12, Russia Day, which marks the proclamation of Russia’s sovereignty in 1990.

“Our goal is simple: We, honest patriots, must do everything in our power for more people to join us...to fight against crooks and traitors,” Navalny wrote in his blog on Wednesday.  “June 12 marks a great opportunity: an official national holiday, a day off. Russia Day.  You and I, we’re fighting for the best future for Russia, right?”  [Moscow Times]

Separately, the European Court of Human Rights has ruled that Russia failed to protect the hostages of the Beslan school siege in which about 330 people died in 2004.

In the siege, Chechen rebels took more than 1,000 hostages, mostly children, and the court said the operation by Russian forces to end it used disproportionate force.

It also said officials knew an attack was imminent and did nothing to prevent it.

Russia said the ruling was “utterly unacceptable” and it would appeal.

Finally, Russia is very jealous of America’s “mother of all bombs,” so they made sure to announce Friday that they possess an even bigger bomb, the “father of all bombs,” as described by the Russian edition of Popular Mechanics in 2013.  “We have a bigger one,” the government tweeted on one of its Russian-language Twitter accounts, and “they [the U.S.] will be more scared of our ‘father.’”  [Moscow Times]

France/Spain: It’s official...Basque separatist group Eta disarmed over the weekend, with police in France having found nearly 3.5 tons of weapons, explosives and other material in eight caches that Eta handed over.  France said the weapons would be destroyed.

Eta – which now says it has surrendered all its weapons – killed more than 800 people in some 40 years of violence in pursuit of an independent country straddling France and Spain.

While France hailed the move, Spain called on Eta to disband, not just disarm.

The caches contained 120 firearms, three tons of explosives, and several thousand rounds of ammunition.

Eta was initially set up in opposition to the government of General Franco, who repressed the Basques politically and culturally.  Southwestern France was used as a base, with almost all of its attacks against Spanish targets in Spain, though some French policemen were killed in raids on Eta strongholds.

Mexico: In another flip-flop in strategy, Sen. Marco Rubio on “This Week” when queried about The Wall.  “Let me just say, Mexico’s not going to pay for the wall. And, by the way, America should, if we believe that’s in our national interests to do so.”

Every other person of authority in the U.S. government feels the same way.  I doubt you’ll see Trump bring up the issue at his next rally.

Random Musings

--Presidential job approval:

Gallup tracking poll [4/12]: 40% approve of President Trump’s job performance, 54% disapprove.

Rasmussen [4/13]: 48% approve of Trump’s performance, 52% disapprove.

CBS news [4/10]: 43% approve. 49% disapprove.

--Republicans won the first congressional election of the Trump era Tuesday night, retaining a Kansas House seat that was open because of Mike Pompeo’s selection to become director of the CIA.

Republican Ron Estes defeated Democrat James Thompson 52% to 46%, a much-closer result than expected and a worrisome sign for the elephants.  Trump won the district by 27 points.

--Conservative leaders are putting President Trump on notice: If he doesn’t stick to his campaign promises, there will be a price to pay in the midterm election. 

--John Podhoretz / New York Post...a continuation of his op-ed on communication skills.

“And speaking of communicating, how about the man who is supposed to be the foremost explicator in America? That would be White House press secretary Sean Spicer, whose daily briefings are watched by millions – which makes him the most visible member of the Trump administration.

“For one thing, Spicer almost literally cannot speak a grammatical English sentence, and the very fact he got the job despite this obvious liability is an implicit mark of national decline.  But whatever violence he has done to our language was outdone on Tuesday by the disgustingly potted history lesson he attempted for some reason to deliver to a horrified nation.

“In making a moral case against Syria’s Bashar al-Assad and his use of chemical weapons, Spicer found himself helpless before his own tongue as he suggested Adolf Hitler hadn’t gassed his own people.  (Hundreds of thousands of German Jews were killed by Zyklon B.)  Then, in the course of trying to figure out how the hell to get out of the Dark Forest of execrable taste in which he had lost himself, he referred to the very places in which Hitler did just that as ‘Holocaust centers.’

“The morning after this disquisition, Spicer apologized profusely in a public forum – but even as he did so, his body language and tone suggested he was bitter that he had been held to account.

“What was missing from the behavior of both (United’s Munoz and Spicer) and from the conduct of our institutions in general is elementary dignity – the dignity that arises from the responsibility such people ought to feel as they fill roles of great power and influence in our society. Given how cheaply they have mortgaged their own social capital in pursuit of authority and fame and financial comfort, it’s no wonder nobody at the top of the greasy pole seems to know how to play this American game any longer.”

Haaretz / Editorial

“White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer’s unfortunate remarks, according to which Hitler never used chemical weapons nor used gas against his own people during the Holocaust, are not only testimony to his personal ignorance.  You don’t need to be an accredited historian to know that Hitler killed millions of people with gas starting in 1939, and that the victims  included citizens of his country, both Jewish and non-Jewish.

“Spicer’s remarks, which border on Holocaust denial, are extremely dangerous, because they are liable to strengthen radical actors around the world.  Extremists are the ones who benefit from distortions of history, and especially distortions related to the fate of the Jewish people.

“No less outrageous, however, were the lame responses and even nonresponses from the Israeli government and the man who heads it, to these and similar statements from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s ideological partners in the United States and in Europe.

“These comments by the man who is supposed to be Donald Trump’s mouthpiece should be viewed as part of a worrying trend shared by other right-wing parties and governments worldwide, which seem to have made Holocaust denial one of their trademarks.  Just this week, Marine Le Pen, the leader of France’s National Front party, said that France ‘isn’t responsible’ for the roundup of 13,000 Jews in the summer of 1942, held in the Velodrome d’Hiver indoor stadium in Paris before being deported to Auschwitz.  Yet these actions were organized by the French authorities, and thousands of French policemen participated in them.

“Similar things have been said in recent months in Poland....

“What’s the right’s distortions of history in the United States, France and Poland have in common is that they all constitute a major regression from both historical research and the existing culture of memory in these countries.”

I went to Treblinka in Poland in 1999.  Hired out a driver to take me there from Warsaw.  Treblinka is not like Auschwitz...there are no visible buildings left.  It was an extermination camp.  At least 700,000 died in its gas chambers.  But then it was dismantled.

I have written of my experience there a few times.  I’ll never forget the faces of the old women in the doorways of the village along the road going in.  Pissed off I was there.  [My driver and I were the only ones that day.]  These same women saw it all back in 1942-43, and did nothing as the rail cars went in full, and came out empty.  [The road into what is now a memorial is on the old rail tracks...the memorial since expanded long after I was there...]

Sean Spicer should have resigned this week.

--Then there is Steve Bannon.  President Trump, when commenting on the rumored infighting between Bannon and Jared Kushner: “I like Steve, but you have to remember he was not involved in my campaign until very late.  I had already beaten all the senators and all the governors, and I didn’t know Steve. I’m my own strategist and it wasn’t like I was going to change strategies because I was facing crooked Hillary....

“Steve is a good guy, but I told them to straighten it out or I will.”

--The Washington Post reported: “The FBI and the Justice Department obtained (a) warrant targeting Carter Page’s communications after convincing a Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court judge that there was probable cause to believe Page was acting as an agent of a foreign power, in this case Russia, according to officials.

“This is the clearest evidence so far that the FBI had reason to believe during the 2016 presidential campaign that a Trump campaign adviser was in touch with Russian agents.”

Mr. Page then gave an interview with CNN’s Jake Tapper and talk about pathetic; Page was terrible in his own defense.

--Republican Gov. Robert Bentley resigned Monday, hours after pleading guilty to two misdemeanor crimes.  Bentley’s wife had filed for divorce after she found incriminating text messages and recorded phone conversations between Bentley and his top political advisor.

This is a bad guy.

--Julian Assange had an op-ed in the Washington Post that I almost refused to read, and whaddya know, days later, CIA Director Mike Pompeo labeled Assange an agent of Russia.

But I can’t help but note this one quote of Assange’s: “I have given up years of my own liberty for the risks we have taken at WikiLeaks to bring truth to the public.”

No, Mr. Assange.  You gave up years of your own liberty because you were afraid of being extradited to face charges for a sex crime and instead you opted to hide out in the Ecuadorean Embassy in London. 

Pompeo on Thursday called Assange a “narcissist” and a “coward” who makes “common cause with dictators.”  The director also called WikiLeaks “a non-state hostile intelligence service, often abetted by state actors like Russia.”

This is a massive break from Pompeo’s boss, who in 2016, praised WikiLeaks for publishing emails from the Democratic National Committee and the Clinton Foundation.  “I love WikiLeaks,” Trump said.  “It’s amazing how nothing is secret today when you talk about the Internet.”

Trump associate Roger Stone has been accused of collaborating with WikiLeaks after boasting of his contact with Assange.

--Donald Trump, in an interview with the New York Post’s Michael Goodwin, on commentators:

“Pundits, they know less than my 11-year-old son,” he said.  “They have zero political instinct and zero political talent.”

Ah, I don’t think so, Mr. President....all due respect to Barron, of course.

--Retired Army Gen. Barry McCaffrey / Army Times

“World War I transformed America’s army from a 19th-century skeleton force barely capable of responding to a deadly border raid by Mexican revolutionaries into a potent modern expeditionary power with millions under arms and the resources, skills and battlefield courage to shock the enemy into submission.

“The transformation would not come easily, but when it did, it would reinvent the U.S. Army in such a profound manner that its legacy continues to this day, woven into the very fabric of its fatigues....

“The arrival of the U.S. army was captured in the memoirs of Winston Churchill, who wrote of the ‘seemingly inexhaustible flood of gleaming youth’ that ‘clattered along the roads, singing the songs of a new world at the tops of their voices, burning to reach the bloody field. ...Half trained, half organized, with only their courage, their numbers and their magnificent youth behind their weapons, they were to buy their experience at a bitter price. But this they were quite ready to do.’

“The 1918 armistice led to a dramatic drawdown in the U.S. Army, but its core structure, the institutional memory; the reinvention of its culture; its appreciation of modern warfare; the challenges of logistics, supply and training; and the battlefield education of future generals came about as a result of World War I. It would not only change the world and the Army, but it would create the American century that was to follow.”

Gen. McCaffrey then makes a plea to support the creation of a National World War I Memorial in Washington, D.C., “to honor those who served during that war, a tribute that is long overdue.”

www.worldwarIcentennial.org

I watched the PBS “American Experience” series on World War I this week.  Outstanding.

---

Pray for the men and women of our armed forces...and all the fallen.

Pray for Egypt’s Coptic Christians.

God bless America.

---

Gold $1290
Oil $52.91

Returns for the week 4/10-4/14

Dow Jones  -1.0%  [20453]
S&P 500  -1.1%  [2328]
S&P MidCap  -1.5%
Russell 2000  -1.4%
Nasdaq  -1.2%  [5805]

Returns for the period 1/1/17-4/14/17

Dow Jones  +3.5%
S&P 500  +4.0%
S&P MidCap  +1.2%
Russell 2000  -0.9%
Nasdaq  +7.8%

Bulls 56.3
Bears 17.5 [Source: Investors Intelligence]

Happy Easter and Passover!

Brian Trumbore

 



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Week in Review

04/15/2017

For the week 4/10-4/14

[Posted 11:00 PM ET, Friday]

Note: StocksandNews has significant ongoing costs and your support is greatly appreciated.  Click on the gofundme link or send a check to PO Box 990, New Providence, NJ 07974.  *Special thanks this week to Kirk N., longtime reader and fellow Demon Deacon.

Edition 940

Every family has certain customs and traditions.  My mother was a good Catholic and so every Good Friday my brother and I went with her to church for a little reflection.  Lots of relatives then on my mom’s side to pray for.  [Dad’s, not so many.]

So for the last 18 years I’ve been doing this column on Good Friday, but always make sure I zip over to church in the middle of the day to do what I was taught to.  Not as many family members to pray for these days.  So many are gone.

But while I prayed for the usual, including for myself, gosh darnit, and a friend’s son-in-law who is in the military (West Point grad) and liable to be sent anywhere, it really is a scary time.

I mean here I am tonight, pretty much finished with the column but waiting an hour to see if Fat Boy in Pyongyang does anything.

The Orcs in North Korea said on Friday that they could annihilate American military bases in South Korea “within minutes” and that it would test a nuclear weapon any time it pleases. And I just saw cross the wires that they displayed for the first time their new submarine-launched ballistic missile at their military parade.

I’ve been to the DMZ.  I wish every American could take the bus trip from Seoul to the border just to get an idea of how close the 10 million+ are to Kim’s artillery.  I can’t imagine the tension the people there are feeling today.  When you peer across through your binoculars, you’re looking at Mordor.

Kim Jong Un must be stopped.  Soon.  I’ve been warning for a long time he is making far quicker progress than we’ve been led to believe.  I told you a year ago, watch this Fourth of July and Guam.

Today, a new estimate came out that Kim already has 13-30 nuclear weapons (we used to hear 8 to 12).  Fat Boy must be decapitated.  But it can’t be at a cost of millions in Seoul, to say the least, as well as our own forces there.

Just pray our leaders, read Gen. Mattis in particular, do all the right things and that South Korea’s and Japan’s military leaders and governments stay strong.  [That’s a problem in Seoul.  With the recent impeachment, there really is no government until the special election.]

Meanwhile, I start off below with an extensive look at Syria and President Trump’s action there.  You may choose to skip all the commentary, but in keeping with what this column has been about since day one, this is the single best recorded history of our times...geopolitics and global financial markets...period.

More on North Korea in the “Foreign Affairs” section. 

The ongoing Syria missile strike fallout, Putin and Trump....

Saturday...the governor of Homs, Syria, confirmed that the air base struck by the U.S. cruise missile strike was back in operation.  The U.S. had said it didn’t crater the runways because they were easily fixed.

Vladimir Putin was acting like he wouldn’t meet with U.S. Sec. of State Rex Tillerson when the latter was in Moscow this week.  Russia’s story, for now, was that a Syrian government airstrike on Idlib hit a factory where Syrian rebels were manufacturing chemical weapons, according to Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, and that the Syrian government “has no chemical arms stockpiles” and said the U.S. strike was based on a “far-fetched notion.”

Moscow said it had fulfilled its part of a 2013 agreement mandating that Russia oversee the destruction of Mr. Assad’s chemical weapons arsenal.

Tillerson told reporters that the poison gas attack showed Moscow did not take its obligations seriously or was incompetent.

Sunday...Sec. Tillerson said on ABC’s “This Week” that he hopes Russia will “be supportive of a process that will lead to a stable Syria.”

“I’m disappointed because I think the real failure here has been Russia’s failure to live up to its commitments under the chemical weapons agreements that were entered into in 2013.

“Both by the Syrian government and by Russia as the guarantor to play the role in Syria of securing chemical weapons, destroying the chemical weapons and continuing to monitor that situation....

“I hope Russia is thinking carefully about its continued alliance with Bashar al-Assad,” he said, “because every time one of these horrific attacks occurs, it draws Russia closer into some level of responsibility.”

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said on NBC’s “Meet the Press,”  “Here’s what I think Assad’s telling Trump by flying from this base: ‘FU.’  And I think he’s making a serious mistake...if you’re an adversary of the United States and you don’t worry about what Trump may do on any given day.”

Graham added: “The Russian soldiers on the base where this attack occurred, the Russians intentionally, in my view, left chemical weapons in the hands of Assad, their proxy.  So if I were President Trump, I would go after Russia through sanctions not only for interfering in our elections, but aiding and abetting the use of chemical weapons by a war criminal, Assad.”

On CBS’ “Face the Nation,” John Dickerson interviewed Sen. John McCain (R-Az.)

Dickerson: It appears from Secretary Tillerson that the administration is not going to do anything more than the actions it already has taken.  What is your reaction to that?

McCain: “Well, I think what the president did was an excellent first step and it was a reversal of the last eight years.

“And I think it was important. But it is now vitally important we develop a strategy, we put that strategy in motion, and we bring about peace in that region. And that obviously means that there has to be a cessation of these war crimes.

“John, dropping, using chemical weapons is a war crime, but starving thousands of people in prisons is also.  Barrel bombs which indiscriminately kill innocent civilians, precision strikes done by Russians on hospitals in Aleppo are war crimes as well.

“So there’s a lot of war crimes that are taking place. And another aspect of this that I do not agree with the secretary is that you have to just concentrate on ISIS.

“We will take Mosul. We will take Raqqa. And we better have strategies as to how to handle those places once we have won it.  But they are not disconnected from Bashar al-Assad and al-Qaeda and the war crimes that have been taking place....

“Assad, by polarizing the Syrian people, has also given rise to ISIS and al-Qaeda. So they are both connected.  And I believe that the United States of America can address both at the same time. We can walk and chew gum....

“I also believe that a grieving mother whose child has been killed isn’t too concerned whether it is a chemical weapon or a barrel bomb.  He is still slaughtering people. And we may stop the chemical weapons.

“But we have also got to stop the other indiscriminate, inhumane war crimes that are being committed as well. And that means, obviously, trying to set up some kind of safe zone, so that these refugees can have a place where they can be. And, also, that would help with the refugee flow issue.”

On ABC’s  “This Week,” George Stephanopoulos interviewed Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.)

Rubio: “As long as Assad is there, you’re going to have a radical jihadist Sunni element, even if you destroy ISIS it’ll be al-Nusra and that new coalition. These people who have been killed and gassed and human rights violations against them will never accept Assad as their rightful ruler, and they will join or become radicalized in order to keep fighting....

“(Syria) is much more complicated than it was three, four, five years ago. But there are still things that can be done.  We should be increasing sanctions significantly on Iranian and Russian interests that are helping Assad, and particularly this Boeing deal (ed. with Iran) should be canceled.  The second thing that we need to examine is how can we suppress the air defenses of the Assad regime? And that may include coalition use of force to ensure that these offensive operations from the air are not happening, and by the way keep our troops there.”

Stephanopoulos: But you can’t do that if Russia’s not on board, can you?

Rubio: “Well, here’s the bottom line. If those air strikes are being used not just to attack civilians and innocents on the ground, but also threatening the over 500 American servicemen and women who are on the ground in Syria, we have a national security interest in protecting them from air strikes. By the way, that was one of the factors I think should have been in play in this particular attack.  The presence of sarin gas and its use in a country where there are Americans embedded alongside forces, working to defeat ISIS, is a clear and present danger to the men and women who serve us in uniform....

“(Addressing Tillerson) There is no such thing as Assad, yes, but ISIS, no.  This focus that you can defeat ISIS as long as Assad is there is not true. They’re two sides of the same coin.

“As long as Bashar al-Assad is in power in Syria, you will have a reason for people to be radicalized in Syria. And that’s what’s going to happen. And, by the way, in all this about ISIS – there’s an al-Qaeda group growing in strength, this al-Nusra coalition, that are prepared to step into the vacuum left behind by a defeated ISIS.  You cannot have a stable Syria without jihadist elements on the ground as long as Bashar al-Assad is in power. And the quicker they realize that, the better our strategy’s going to be.”

Also Sunday, Russian President Putin and Iran’s Hassan Rohani said in a phone call that aggressive U.S. actions against Syria were not permissible and violated international law, the Kremlin relayed.

The two leaders also called for an objective investigation into an incident involving chemical weapons in Syria’s Idlib and said they were ready to deepen cooperation to fight terrorism.

Rohani said in a televised address that the U.S. strikes risked escalating extremism in the region.

“This man who claimed that he wanted to fight terrorism gave terrorist organizations a reason to celebrate the American attack.”

And British Defense Secretary Michael Fallon wrote in an op-ed, Russia is “by proxy responsible for every civilian death last week.  Someone who uses barrel bombs and chemicals on his own people cannot be the future leader of Syria.  Assad must go.”

A Washington Post/ABC News poll released Monday showed that 51% of U.S. adults supported the missile strike on Syria, whereas only 40% opposed.

But the same poll indicated that just 25% said the action made them more confident in Trump’s leadership abilities.

A CBS News poll showed 57% of Americans expressed general approval for targeting Syrian military facilities in response to the use of chemical weapons, while only 36% disapproved.

But only 41% in the CBS poll said they were confident about Trump’s ability to handle the situation in Syria, vs. 54% who said they were “uneasy” at this point.  [I have overall job approval #s down below.]

Monday...as the rhetoric heated up between Russia and the United States, the Kremlin warned that if Washington did nothing to improve relations, “Moscow will react reciprocally.”

Defense Secretary James Mattis confirmed early reports that the cruise-missile strike destroyed 20% of the military’s aircraft.

“The Syrian government has lost the ability to refuel or rearm aircraft at Shayrat airfield and at this point, use of the runway is of idle military interest.”

Mattis added in a statement: “The Syrian government would be ill-advised ever again to use chemical weapons.”

Trump continues to shift positions versus what he advocated during the campaign; shifting from a populist platform embraced by the Republican Party’s most conservative elements, to a highly pragmatic approach, favored by mainstream Republicans.

You see this on his economic policy, as elucidated on in a Wall Street Journal interview.

But his policies are indeed fluid, constantly changing, such as his ideas on infrastructure and the tax code.

But Wednesday he told the Journal that the U.S. dollar “is getting too strong” and that he favors low interest rates for longer, with both the dollar and yields on U.S. government bonds falling sharply on the words.

Trump said the strength of the dollar was hurting the competitiveness of U.S. companies that do a lot of business abroad. And on interest rates, he said “I do like a low-interest rate policy, I must be honest with you.”

Cheaper borrowing costs and a lower dollar certainly make it easier for Trump to attain his growth goals.

Trump also told the Journal that he wasn’t going to label China a currency manipulator, another big campaign theme, as Trump said it would get in the way of his discussions with Beijing on them taking a lead in calming tensions with North Korea.

Tuesday...President Trump sought to make it clear, “We’re not going into Syria,” he told the New York Post’s Michael Goodwin.  ‘Our policy is the same – it hasn’t changed.  We’re not going into Syria.”

Trump told Goodwin that Assad was a “butcher” and a “barbarian” for using sarin gas on his own people, but said last week’s successful missile strike was not the start of a campaign to oust the dictator.

“Our big mission is getting rid of ISIS,” Trump said.  “That’s where it’s always been.  But when you see kids choking to death, you watch their lungs burning out, we had to hit him and hit him hard.”

He called the attack, involving 59 cruise missiles fired from two Navy destroyers, “an act of humanity.”

Trump told Goodwin, “We hope (Assad) won’t do any more gassing.”

“We’re not exactly on the same wavelength with Russia, to put it mildly.  Putin must see what a barbarian this guy is, and it’s a very bad symbol for Russia with this guy gassing children and using barrel bombs.”

Wednesday...Secretary of State Tillerson held his first direct talks with President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, after Putin put him off for hours and hours, as tensions with Russia deepened, with the Kremlin making it clear it was not about to roll back its support of Bashar al-Assad.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Putin might agree to resume an information-sharing “deconfliction” network with the United States on the countries’ warplane flights in Syria. Russia had suspended its role in the system after the missile strike.  Lavrov said the link could be reestablished if U.S. airstrikes in Syria focused only on Islamic State and other militant groups – and not expanded to Syrian government targets.

At their joint news conference, Tillerson said the United States has no information that Russian forces directly helped with the chemical attack, even as U.S. officials, and Tillerson himself, suggested earlier that Russia knew about the Syrian plans in advance.

“We have no firm information to indicate there was any involvement by Russia, Russian forces, into this attack,” Tillerson said.  “What we do know, and we have very firm and high confidence in our conclusions, is that the attack was planned and carried out at the direction of Bashar al-Assad.”

Lavrov retorted: “This is obviously the subject where our views differ.”

Russia was unbending in Tillerson’s efforts to get the Kremlin to help remove Assad from power.

Tillerson said on Tuesday that Russia needed to calculate the costs of remaining an ally of Assad, and Wednesday, the Russian Foreign Ministry dismissed those remarks.

“I believe everyone realized a long time ago that there is no use in giving us ultimatums.  This is simply counterproductive,” a foreign ministry spokeswoman said.

On the Trump administration’s claims that its intelligence proved Syrian forces had carried out the deadly chemical weapons attack.  Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, “We reject any accusations to this effect and would like to remind everyone that Russia has been the only country to demand an unbiased international inquiry into the circumstances of the use of toxic chemicals near Idlib from the very start.”

Speaking on Fox Business Network, Trump said: “Putin is backing a person (Assad) that’s truly an evil person.  And I think it’s very bad for Russia.  I think it’s very bad for mankind.  It’s very bad for this world.”

Appearing alongside NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, Trump offered support for the Western military alliance, which he had previously criticized as obsolete.  And while he refrained from criticizing Russian President Vladimir Putin directly, he said the U.S.-Russia relationship “may be at an all-time low” in the aftermath of U.S. air strikes on the Syrian airfield.

Asked if he thought Russia knew of the sarin gas attack, Trump hedged.

“I think it’s certainly possible. I think it’s probably unlikely,” he said.  “I would like to think that they didn’t know, but certainly they could have.”

In describing his decision to order last week’s missile attack:

“That’s a butcher.  That’s a butcher. So, I felt we had to do something about it.  I have absolutely no doubt we did the right thing,” Trump said.

But Trump has been insisting the U.S. will not be sending troops to Syria.

Democrats, while supportive of the missile strike, are demanding that Trump get specific with his strategy, while Republicans want the administration to work more closely with Congress.

Vladimir Putin said Wednesday that trust had eroded between the two countries under President Trump.

Russia blocked a Western-led effort at the UN Security Council Wednesday night to condemn last week’s gas attack and push Assad to cooperate with international inquiries into the incident.

It was the eighth time during Syria’s six-year-old civil war that Moscow has used its veto power on the Security Council to shield Assad’s government.

In this veto, Russia was blocking a draft resolution backed by the U.S., Britain and France to denounce the attack in the town of Khan Sheikhoun and tell Assad’s government to provide access for investigators, as well as provide flight plans.

U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, called on Moscow to stop protecting Assad.

“Russia once again has chosen to side with Assad, even as the rest of the world, including the Arab world, overwhelmingly comes together to condemn this murderous regime,” Haley told the Security Council.

Thursday, Bashar Assad denied reports of a chemical attack carried out by Syrian government forces, saying they were “fabricated” and accusing the U.S. of working “hand in glove” with al-Qaeda to create a pretext for air strikes.

Speaking to Agence France-Presse, Assad said the government no longer has any chemical weapons, and “even if we had them we wouldn’t use them, we have never used our chemical arsenal in our history.”

Assad described reports of the gas attack as “propaganda,” saying: “Our impression is that the West is hand in glove with the terrorists, they fabricated the whole story in order to have a pretext for the attack.”

Opinion....

Walter Russell Mead / Wall Street Journal

“President Trump faced his first serious foreign-policy test this week.  To the surprise and perhaps frustration of his critics, he passed with flying colors.

“In the first place, the president read the situation correctly.  Syrian President Bashar Assad’s horrific and illegal use of chemical weapons against civilians was not merely an affront to international norms. It was a probe by Mr. Assad and his patrons to test the mettle of the new White House.

“This must have looked like a good week to challenge Washington.  The Trump administration is beset by critics.  Most senior national-security posts remain unfilled.  The White House is torn by infighting. The Republican Party is divided by the bitter primary campaign and its recent health-care fiasco.

“President Trump concluded, correctly, that failing to respond effectively to Mr. Assad’s challenge would invite more probes and more tests.  He moved quickly and decisively against the provocation, demonstrating that the days of strategic dithering are gone.

“Second, Mr. Trump chose the right response: a limited missile strike against the Syrian air base that, according to American intelligence, had launched the vicious gas attack.  This resonated well nearly everywhere. At home, it won approval from Jacksonians and others who want a strong president....

“Third, Mr. Trump handled the process well.  Congress was briefed but not asked for approval, a decision inside the long-established norms that govern military action by American commanders in chief. Engaging in a war to overthrow Mr. Assad would be another matter, but so far Mr. Trump has stayed well within the mainstream of American presidents dating back to the 18th century.

“The Trump administration notified Russia before the U.S. bombed the Syrian airfield. This is a process of its own. If this were the start of a long war, we wouldn’t give our adversaries advance warning about the opening salvo....

“Finally, Mr. Trump gets extra points for deftness. He struck at a Russian proxy while holding a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in which North Korea was a major topic.  That’s a polite way to make the point that the U.S. and its allies have kicked the North Korean can down the road for too long....

“Mr. Obama’s acolytes now will have to spend less time attacking Mr. Trump and more time trying to defend their own tattered legacy in Syria....

“But while Mr. Trump and his associates bask in their success, they should remember their foreign policy travails are only beginning.  Russia, Iran and China all seek to roll back American power.  The European Union – whatever its shortcomings, a bulwark of American power – faces its greatest threat in half a century from the combination of flawed policies at home and ruthless challengers abroad.  The bloodbath in the Middle East is by no means finished.  Turkey, once a pillar of regional stability and American security, threatens to become unmoored from the West and the NATO alliance....

“Mr. Trump has passed his first test, but more difficult ones are yet to come. If he is to succeed – and every American and friend of world peace must pray that he does – he will need a team in the White House that commands his full confidence....There is no job in the world more difficult than the U.S. presidency.  President Trump will need all the help he can get.”

Robert Kagan / Washington Post

“Trump was not wrong to blame the dire situation in Syria on President Barack Obama. The world would be a different place today if Obama had carried out his threat to attack Syria when Assad crossed the famous ‘red line’ in the summer of 2013.  The bad agreement that then-Secretary of State John F. Kerry struck with Russia not only failed to get rid of Syria’s stock of chemical weapons, but it allowed the Assad regime to drop barrel bombs and employ widespread torture against civilian men, women and children.  It also invited a full-scale Russian intervention in the fall of 2015, which saved the Assad regime from possible collapse.

“Today, thousands of Russian forces operate throughout Syria, and not chiefly against the Islamic State but against the civilian population and the U.S.-backed moderate opposition.  Russia has also greatly expanded its military presence in the eastern Mediterranean.  The extensive air-defense and anti-ship systems Russia has deployed have nothing to do with counterterrorism – because neither the Islamic State nor al-Qaeda has planes or ships – and everything to do with threatening U.S. and NATO assets.  Obama and Kerry spent four years panting after this partnership, but Russia has been a partner the way the mafia is when it presses in on your sporting goods business.  Thanks to Obama’s policies, Russia has increasingly supplanted the United States as a major power broker in the region.  Even U.S. allies such as Turkey, Egypt and Israel look increasingly to Moscow as a significant regional player.

“Obama’s policies also made possible an unprecedented expansion of Iran’s power and influence.  Iran has at least 7,000 of its own fighters in Syria, and it leads a coalition of 20,000 foreign fighters, including Iraqis, Afghans and 8,000 Lebanese Hizbullah.

“If you add the devastating impact of massive Syrian refugee flows on European democracies, Obama’s policies have not only allowed the deaths of almost a half-million Syrians but also have significantly weakened America’s global position and the health and coherence of the West.  Future historians will have to determine whether Vladimir Putin was emboldened to move in Ukraine by Obama’s failure to carry through on his threat in Syria, or whether China felt free to act more aggressively in the South China Sea.  But at the very least U.S. friends and allies in the Middle East and in Eastern and Central Europe have questioned how serious the United States is about countering aggression.  Even in East Asia, American allies such as Japan and South Korea were left wondering whether the United States could still be counted on to keep its military commitments.

“Trump, of course, greatly exacerbated these problems during his campaign, with all the strong rhetoric aimed at allies.  Now he has taken an important first step in repairing the damage, but this will not be the end of the story.  America’s adversaries are not going to be convinced by one missile strike that the United States is back in the business of projecting power to defend its interests and the world order....

“Instead of being a one-time event, the missile strike needs to be the opening move in a comprehensive political, diplomatic and military strategy to rebalance the situation in Syria in America’s favor.  That means reviving some of those proposals that Obama rejected over the past four years: a no-fly zone to protect Syrian civilians, the grounding of the Syrian air force, and the effective arming and training of the moderate opposition, all aimed at an eventual political settlement that can bring the Syrian civil war, and therefore the Assad regime, to an end.  The United States’ commitment to such a course will have to be clear enough to deter the Russians from attempting to disrupt it.  This in turn will require moving sufficient military assets to the region so that neither Russia nor Iran will be tempted to escalate the conflict to a crisis, and to be sure that American forces will be ready if they do.

“It was precisely because Obama and his White House advisers were unwilling to go down that path that they resisted military action of any kind, regardless of the provocation.  Let’s hope that the Trump administration is prepared for the next move.  If it is, then there is a real chance of reversing the course of global retreat that Obama began.”

I hope a lot of the above sounded rather familiar to many of you.

Michael Goodwin / New York Post

“In a flash, President Trump’s missile strike on Syria conveyed America’s moral outrage over the slaughter of innocents and delivered a lethal warning to two-bit tyrants everywhere.

“The attack did something else, too. It punched a giant hole in the battered legacy of Barack Obama.

“The former president talked early and often about Syria, but wasted six years and countless lives with hand-wringing dithering.  He failed to enforce his red line about Bashar al-Assad’s use of chemical weapons, kicking the job to Trump, who acted just two days after Assad again unleashed fiendish weapons on his own people....

“The confirmation of Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court illustrated the importance of Republicans holding the Senate and winning the White House as part of the nationwide rejection of Obamaism.

“Yet as measured by the loss of life and global impact, nothing compares with Obama’s failure in Syria.  His refusal to lift a finger opened the door to perhaps the largest humanitarian crises since World War II.”

David Ignatius / Washington Post

“The Trump administration’s foreign policy has been a dizzying spectacle of mixed messages and policy reversals during its first three months.  But in last week’s crucial tests, President Trump made good decisions about Syria, Russia and China – moving his erratic administration a bit closer toward the pillars of traditional U.S. policy.

“The decision to strike a Syrian air base was a confidence builder for an inexperienced and sometimes fractious White House, a senior official said.  Trump couldn’t be sure when he launched the attack that a Russian wouldn’t be killed, or that some other freak mishap wouldn’t arise.  The military option he chose had two virtues: It was quick, surprising Russians who hadn’t expected such prompt retaliation; and it was measured, sending a calibrated message rather than beginning an open-ended military intervention.

“Trump famously likes to win, and he can probably claim a win here after weeks of chaotic setbacks.  As a result, the Syria operation, generally praised at home and abroad, has consolidated the power of Trump’s core foreign policy team, in ways that may alter the political balance of this White House.

“Here’s the consensus among top Republican and Democratic former officials I spoke with: National security adviser H.R. McMaster ran a tight interagency process; Defense Secretary Jim Mattis offered the president clear, manageable options.  Trump mostly stayed off Twitter, encouraging his team members to do the work rather than disrupting them.

“Perhaps the most visible beneficiary is Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, who has found his voice after an agonizingly slow start.  Tillerson clearly has gained Trump’s confidence and has also forged an alliance with the decisive backstage operator in this White House, senior adviser (and Trump’s son-in-law) Jared Kushner.

“The knives are out for Stephen K. Bannon, who bid to be Trump’s key strategist but is now branded by some close to Trump as a divisive, self-promoting personality whose days are numbered.  What seems to have angered Trump and his inner circle is the bid for supremacy by ‘someone who came on board 72 days before the election,’ as one aide put it. ‘People are tired of games’ from Bannon, he said.

“Trump has also tilted toward China and away from Russia in the triangular game of nations played by this administration, much as it was by then-Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, Kushner’s apparent mentor.  That rebalancing is the opposite of what Trump seemed to favor during the campaign, when he blasted China and wooed Russian President Vladimir Putin at every opportunity.  But it’s a more sensible and sustainable course....

“Last week’s trickiest maneuver was simultaneously bombing Syria and meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.  Trump has basically done a 180 on China: After challenging the fundamentals of the relationship before he took office, Trump has now reverted to Kissingerian language of cooperation.  The goal of the summit, officials say, was for the two self-styled ‘big men’ to get to know each other....

“Trump’s impulsive, unpredictable style has confounded the Chinese, who like to plan every detail, but officials say their overall satisfaction was conveyed by their lack of criticism in a communique after the summit....

“The Trump team feels that after last week’s strike on Syria to enforce the chemical weapons ban, the United States has regained the strategic initiative from Putin.  ‘Russia is catching as opposed to pitching for a change,’ says one senior official.  ‘They are on the back foot, surprised by Trump.’

“Rebuffing Putin is a worthy goal, if an unlikely one for Trump. Former defense secretary Bob Gates offers the crucial caveat; ‘There’s merit in getting Russia off balance politically, but being militarily unpredictable when Russian forces are directly involved is a very risky business.’”

Paul Wolfowitz / Wall Street Journal

“Strong American action can dramatically change the attitudes of other countries. It makes enemies more cautious, friends more supportive, and fence-sitters more cooperative. It provides leverage in negotiations and improves opportunities for coalition building.  Last week President Trump demonstrated American resolve by retaliating against the Syrian government after Bashar Assad used chemical weapons. Now Mr. Trump must follow through with a broad diplomatic effort to end the country’s bloodshed.

“Among the most interesting reactions to the American strike were two from Iraqi Shiite leaders.  Last Thursday Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, a moderate, and the cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, a firebrand, both called for Mr. Assad to step down. Mr. Sadr predictably denounced the American strike.  Mr. Abadi indirectly praised it by noting how Iraqis had suffered from Saddam Hussein’s chemical weapons.

“These calls for Mr. Assad to step down might seem at odds with the conventional wisdom, which puts the Sunni-Shiite conflict at the heart of everything in the Middle East.  Shouldn’t Iraq’s Shiites naturally side with Iran’s Syrian proxy and approve of Mr. Assad’s brutal treatment of Sunni opponents?  Yet there are issues more important than the commonly noted sectarian divisions.  The people of Iraq know well that the Assad regime has supported the insurgents and suicide bombers who have killed thousands of Iraqis, and hundreds of Americans, since 2003.  The Bush administration largely turned a blind eye to that support, and President Obama did so even more.”

Bret Stephens / Wall Street Journal

“Last week’s cruise-missile strike against a Syrian air base in response to Bashar Assad’s use of chemical weapons has reopened debate about the wisdom of Barack Obama’s decision to forgo a similar strike, under similar circumstances, in 2013.

“But the real issue isn’t about wisdom. It’s about honesty.

“On Sept. 10, 2013, President Obama delivered a televised address in which he warned of the dangers of not acting against Assad’s use of sarin gas, which had killed some 1,400 civilians in the Damascus suburb of Ghouta the previous month.

“ ‘If we fail to act, the Assad regime will see no reason to stop using chemical weapons,’ Mr. Obama said.  ‘As the ban against these weapons erodes, other tyrants will have no reason to think twice about acquiring poison gas, and using them.  Over time, our troops would again face the prospect of chemical weapons on the battlefield.  And it could be easier for terrorist organizations to obtain these weapons, and use them to attack civilians.’

“It was a high-minded case for action that the president immediately disavowed for the least high-minded reason: It was politically unpopular.  The administration punted a vote to an unwilling Congress.  It punted a fix to the all-too-willing Russians. And it spent the rest of its time in office crowing about its success.

“In July 2014 Secretary of State John Kerry claimed ‘we got 100% of the chemical weapons out.’  In May 2015 Mr. Obama boasted that ‘Assad gave up his chemical weapons.  That’s not speculation on our part.  That, in fact, has been confirmed by the organization internationally that is charged with eliminating chemical weapons.’  This January, then-National Security Adviser Susan Rice said ‘we were able to get the Syrian government to voluntarily and verifiably give up its chemical weapons stockpile.’

“Today we know all this was untrue.  Or, rather, now all of us know it.  Anyone paying even slight attention has known it for years.

“In June 2014 UN Ambassador Samantha Power noted ‘discrepancies and omissions related to the Syrian government’s declaration of its chemical weapons program.’  But that hint of unease didn’t prevent her from celebrating the removal ‘of the final 8% of chemical weapons materials in Syria’s declaration’ of its overall stockpile....

“In February 2016, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper confirmed (a Wall Street Journal report), telling Congress ‘Syria has not declared all the elements of its chemical weapons program.’

“Why did Mr. Obama and his senior officials stick to a script that they knew was untethered from the facts?  Let’s speculate.  They thought the gap between Assad’s ‘declared’ and actual stockpile was close enough for government work.  They figured a credulous press wouldn’t work up a sweat pointing out the difference.  They didn’t imagine Assad would use what was left of his chemical arsenal for fear of provoking the U.S.

“And they didn’t want to disturb the public narrative that multilateral diplomacy was a surer way than military action to disarm rogue Middle Eastern regimes of their illicit weapons. Two months after Mr. Obama’s climb-down with Syria, he signed on to the interim nuclear deal with Iran. The remainder of his term was spent trying not to upset the fragile beauty of his nuclear diplomacy.

“Now we’re coming to grips with the human and strategic price of the Obama administration’s mendacity....

“And it left Mr. Obama’s successor with a lousy set of options....

“Mr. Obama and his advisers will never run out of self-justifications for their policy in Syria. They can’t outrun responsibility for the consequences of their lies.”

Editorial / Washington Post

“The prospect that the Trump administration will soon develop friendly relations with Russia appears to be fading fast.  Though President Trump has yet to make a critical remark in public about Vladimir Putin, his aides are lambasting the Kremlin for its tolerance of, and possible complicity in, a chemical-weapons attack by Syria. White House aides are even denouncing the ‘fake news’ reports with which Moscow is attempting to sow confusion about the use of the nerve agent sarin by the regime of Bashar al-Assad – which is certainly a change from Mr. Trump’s campaign habit of echoing Russian disinformation.

“If the administration is developing a more realistic view of Mr. Putin and the threats he poses to core U.S. interests, that is to be welcomed.  That said, there seems to be more learning to do.  On his way to Moscow for meetings Tuesday, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson coupled his criticism of Russia, and a welcome declaration that ‘we see no further role for the Assad regime longer term,’ with an expression of ‘hope’ that Russia would choose to drop its alliance with Damascus and Iran and instead ‘realign with the United States, with other Western countries’ that ‘are seeking to resolve the Syrian crisis.’....

“(But) Mr. Putin is dead set against ‘regime change’ in Syria or anywhere else the West seeks the removal of a dictator.  Moreover, Russia’s new place of power in the Mideast, including its Syrian bases, is defended by Iranian-led ground forces, making a rupture of the Moscow-Tehran alliance unthinkable for Mr. Putin.

“If Mr. Tillerson really wants Russia to switch sides, he will need to obtain what Mr. Kerry sought in vain – leverage provided by U.S. military action to cripple the Assad regime.  One volley of cruise missiles won’t do it: The United States would need to destroy the rest of the Syrian air force and provide greater support to non-extremist rebels on the ground.  That would be far harder to do now than in 2012 and 2013, when Mr. Obama chose not to act; among other things, it would risk a direct military conflict with Russia.

“A more modest goal for U.S. diplomacy would be to agree with Russia on a de facto partition of Syria into zones controlled by the regime, Western-backed rebels and Kurds, with a long-term cease-fire imposed on all sides. Russia could meanwhile round up and dispose of the chemical stocks that the Assad regime still retains.  That would, at least, spare Syrian civilians from further atrocities and allow for a concentration of military efforts against the Islamic State and al-Qaeda.  But as Mr. Kerry could tell Mr. Tillerson, even that won’t fly with Mr. Putin unless the United States is willing to show greater resolve.”

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“The theory, popular with the media, that President Trump is a political prisoner of Vladimir Putin is looking less credible by the day. The latest evidence arrived Tuesday as White House officials accused Russia of trying to cover up Bashar Assad’s chemical-weapons assault in Syria, and Mr. Trump formally invited Montenegro to join NATO.

“As Mr. Putin was refusing to meet Secretary of State Rex Tillerson in Moscow, White House officials said Russia is conducting a ‘disinformation campaign’ to shield Mr. Assad from accountability for last week’s sarin attack that killed at least 85 people.  The official also said they suspect Russia knew about the attack in advance given how closely the two militaries work together in Syria – though there isn’t definitive evidence.  This public truth-telling is welcome and helps to keep diplomatic pressure on Mr. Assad and Russia as his accomplice.

“Meanwhile, the White House announced that Mr. Trump signed the U.S. ‘instrument of ratification’ for Montenegro to become the 29th member of NATO.  The decision paves the way for the tiny Eastern Europe nation to join at the NATO summit in May if other nations agree.

“Montenegro won’t count for much militarily, but its entry is important as a rebuke to Mr. Putin, who opposes any expansion of the Western alliance close to Russia’s borders.  Last year Russian agents tried but failed to orchestrate a coup to overthrow Montenegro’s pro-Western government.  ‘President Trump congratulates the Montenegrin people for their resilience and their demonstrated commitment to NATO’s democratic values,’ said the White House statement, in a clear reference to the coup attempt.

“The investigations into ties between Russia and the Trump presidential campaign have a long way to go, but Mr. Trump isn’t acting like someone who is making foreign-policy judgments out of fear of Russia’s response.  This is reassuring and will strengthen his leverage with the Russian strongman.”

Anne-Marie Slaughter / Financial Times

“Donald Trump has done the right thing at last.  Syria’s agony will not soon end, but after years of global hand-wringing the U.S. has finally taken a stand for basic norms of humanity and morality.  Calculation of certain risks versus uncertain gains were swept away by a visceral response to evil.

“Yet, as supporters and critics of Mr. Trump’s action agree, a strike is not a strategy.  How does punishing Bashar al-Assad for gassing his people fit with Mr. Trump’s announced doctrine of ‘America First’?  I can think of three possible rationales, each of which would move towards a more coherent foreign policy.

“One approach is that order requires law and law requires enforcement.  Mr. Trump’s stated reason for acting was to uphold the International Chemical Weapons Convention. Under international law, the action should have been authorized by the UN Security Council, but Russia’s veto has blocked any action against Mr. Assad for more than five years.  Mr. Trump is signaling the same determination to China with regard to North Korea’s nuclear program.

“Law that is not backed by force is just paper: a Trump doctrine could declare that the U.S. will make every effort to resolve international problems through diplomacy, but in cases involving the proliferation or use of weapons of mass destruction, the U.S. is prepared to act with the support of only a plurality of Security Council members. As satisfying as it may feel, Mr. Trump does not want to legitimize unilateral action by great powers: he would be providing a license for Russian, Chinese and Iranian uses of force that he will soon regret.

“A second rationale would redefine America First to mean Americans First, a statement that every government’s primary obligation is to its own people. Mr. Trump has focused on assessing the impact of trade deals and foreign wars on the American people, insisting that his government’s job is to protect American jobs and livelihoods ahead of the jobs and livelihoods of the millions of people in developing countries who have profited from globalization.

“This is a complicated calculation, as the increased prosperity of citizens in other countries means they can purchase more goods and services from the U.S.  The expansion of global trade has also lowered the cost of living for American consumers at the expense of American producers.  Still, the often maligned doctrine of ‘responsibility to protect’ begins with the proposition that it is the job of governments to protect their people, a view Mr. Trump should embrace.  The corollary, however, is that when governments commit genocide, crimes against humanity, ethnic cleansing and systematic war crimes against their own citizens, the international community can intervene.

“Finally, Mr. Trump might simply choose to go with a much simpler doctrine: words mean what they say.  Last month the UN’s high commissioner for human rights, Zeid Ra’ad al Hussein, described Syria as ‘the worst man-made disaster the world has seen’ since the second world war. Yet the world has stood by for seven years as the Syrian regime has targeted and killed journalists, bombed medical centers, tortured thousands and dropped barrel bombs on civilians.  Our words are empty protestations.....

“On the campaign trail the president showed little interest in international order, declaring his intent to upend alliances and rejecting the internationalism that has underpinned the UN system.  Embracing the responsibility to protect would mean accepting that the protection of people in other countries is a pillar of the international order....

“(Mr. Trump’s) defense secretary, James Mattis, believes deeply that America’s national interest includes the defense of universal values, the values the U.S. was founded on and that its soldiers try hard to uphold.  Part of the reality of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan is how hard it is to figure out how to be the good guys in cultures and conflicts we so often do not fully understand.  Against this backdrop, Mr. Trump’s decisiveness and precision in punishing Mr. Assad offered a refreshing moment of moral clarity, notwithstanding the risks.  Now he needs a strategy to turn a moment into a manifesto.”

Editorial / The Economist

“There are good reasons to cheer the missile attack ordered by Donald Trump on a Syrian air base on April 6th.   It sent a message to Bashar al-Assad, Syria’s despot, that America would not tolerate his use of chemical weapons. It also showed that Mr. Trump, despite many indications to the contrary, was prepared to act to uphold an international norm and to do so for humanitarian reasons: he was outraged by a nerve-gas attack that killed more than 80 people in the rebel enclave of Idlib.  But one barrage doesn’t make a strategy.

“Before Mr. Trump saw television pictures of poisoned children, he had said that getting rid of Mr. Assad was no longer a goal of American policy, as it had been, at least notionally, under Barack Obama. In the week before the chemical attack, both the secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, and America’s UN ambassador, Nikki Haley, had confirmed that shift, thus possibly increasing Mr. Assad’s sense of impunity.  The priority of Mr. Trump was the defeat of Islamic State (IS).  Wider questions about Syria’s future would come later.

“Inevitably, those questions are now back to the fore. When military force is used, it is reasonable to ask: what next?  Various members of the administration have tried to explain the thinking behind the missile strike.

“Mr. Tillerson, on his way to a G7 foreign ministers’ meeting in Italy, castigated the Russians for ‘incompetence’ in failing to restrain their repulsive ally, but said that nothing else had changed.  Ms. Haley contradicted him, arguing that there could be no peace with Mr. Assad still in power.  H.R. McMaster, Mr. Trump’s national security adviser, tried splitting the difference.  Mr. Trump himself was uncharacteristically reticent.  Confusion reigns.

“What might Mr. Trump now do about the Syrian regime’s continued use of other indiscriminate weapons against civilians, such as barrel bombs packed with scrap metal?  Maybe nothing.  But in Italy Mr. Tillerson suddenly suggested a new policy of unlimited interventionism, saying: ‘We dedicate ourselves to holding to account any and all who commit crimes against the innocents anywhere in the world.’  A few hours later Sean Spicer, the president’s press secretary, said: ‘If you gas a baby, if you put a barrel bomb into innocent people, I think you will see a response from this president.’  Does that mean that Mr. Trump now favors overthrowing Mr. Assad?  Surely not, for that would mean direct confrontation in the air with Russia and on the ground with Mr. Assad’s other ally, Iran.

“Instead of confusing rhetoric, the administration should be preparing for the day, fast approaching, when IS in Syria has been thrown out of its ‘capital’ in Raqqa by American-backed Kurdish and Arab forces. When the jihadists no longer hold significant territory, America should be prepared to lead international forces protecting mainly Sunni Arab and Kurdish areas in the east and north of the country from the Assad regime’s attempts to widen its area of control....Yet if Mr. Trump is thinking about such a plan, there is no sign of it.

“After the missile strike, any lingering notion that Mr. Trump might strike a grand bargain with Russia over Syria is dead.  The end of his bromance with Vladimir Putin is welcome – America’s interests and Russia’s are so at odds that it was always doomed to fail.  However, it would be nice to think that Mr. Trump was pursuing a coherent strategy abroad, rather than reacting to what he had just seen on Fox News.  Unpredictability has its uses in foreign policy, but it is worrying that even Mr. Trump’s closest aides have no idea what he will do next.”

Daniel Henninger / Wall Street Journal

“Instead of ‘The Trump Presidency Begins,’ an alternative headline for this column might have been ‘Trump’s Presidency Begins.’  Each describes a different reality.

“Until recently, ‘Trump’s presidency’ has been about one thing – Donald Trump.  It’s been Trump 24/7. Mr. Trump owned the presidency the way Mr. Trump owns a tower on Fifth Avenue.  For better and for worse, Trump’s presidency was all about him.

“In the past few weeks – the Gorsuch appointment, the Syrian strike, the meeting with China’s Xi Jinping – we are finally seeing the beginning of the real Trump presidency.

“Like all the others dating back to George Washington, the presidency is not an object captured by one person; it is an office held in trust for the people of the United States.

“The Trump-centric phenomenon of these early days is the product of our celebrity-centric times, not least the presidency.  He drove it with social media, and the media torrents washed back over him.

“There are some realities, though, that the media torrents haven’t washed away yet. America’s institutions, its politics and the distant world are still too large for anyone to hold and command alone.  That is the lesson of recent days....

“Confirming Judge Gorsuch required the Trump presidency to recede so its political allies could rise and execute. The legislative branch eliminated the filibuster for Supreme Court nominees, thereby preserving the president’s prerogatives.

“While the Gorsuch drama played out on the Senate floor, Mr. Trump met at Mar-a-Lago with China’s Xi Jinping, who traveled nearly 8,000 miles to meet the American president.  Possibly, the Chinese thought that Muhammad going to the mountain would flatter the flatterable Mr. Trump.  Instead, the strikingly low-key meeting acknowledged the high stakes for the two nations and the world.

“On Wednesday, Mr. Xi called the president to discuss North Korea again. That no doubt had something to do with Mr. Trump’s soufflé surprise over dinner with Mr. Xi – a missile strike against an Assad airfield and chemical-weapons depot on Syria.

“Unlike the assassination of Osama bin Laden, when the mission details leaked out overnight, there was no self-congratulatory media dump out of the White House of this presumably ultra-media-conscious president.  Just a blow to the Middle East status quo.

“For our purposes, the important thing isn’t the strike but what came before. It requires little imagination to guess the import of the conversations about operational and political details between the president and Defense Secretary Jim Mattis – former head of the U.S.’s Middle Eastern Central Command – and his national security adviser, Gen. H.R. McMaster.  As Dorothy said to Toto, I don’t think we’re in Kansas anymore....

“We have arrived in the foothills of the Trump presidency, and warnings no doubt abound.  Not least is the Republican obsession with the sport of cliff-diving over dry land. What’s important is that a presidency that was almost too much fun has taken a turn for the serious.”

Charles Krauthammer / Washington Post

“The world is agog at President Trump’s head-snapping foreign policy reversal. He runs on a platform of America First. He renounces the role of world policeman. He excoriates parasitic foreigners that (I paraphrase) suck dry our precious bodily fluids – and these are allies!  On April 4, Trump declared: ‘I don’t want to be the president of the world.  I’m the president of the United States.  And from now on, it’s going to be America First.’

“A week earlier, both his secretary of state and UN ambassador had said that the regime of Bashar al-Assad is a reality and that changing it is no longer an American priority.

“Then last week, Assad drops chemical weapons on rebel-held territory and Trump launches 59 Tomahawk missiles into Syria.

“This was, in part, an emotional reaction to images of children dying of sarin poisoning.  And, in part, seizing the opportunity to redeem Barack Obama’s unenforced red line on chemical weapons.  Whatever the reason, moral or strategic, Trump acted. And effectively reset his entire foreign policy.

“True, in and of itself, the raid will not decisively alter the course of Syria’s civil war.  Assad and his Iranian, Russian and Hizbullah co-combatants still have the upper hand – but no longer a free hand.  After six years of U.S. passivity, there are limits now and the United States will enforce them.

“Nor was the raid the beginning of a campaign for regime change. It was, however, a reassertion of an American stake in both the conduct and the outcome of the war.  America’s abdication is over.  Be warned.

“Moreover, the very swiftness of the response carried a message to the wider world.  Obama is gone.  No more elaborate forensic investigations.  No agonized presidential handwringing over the moral dilemmas of a fallen world.  It took Obama 10 months to decide what to do in Afghanistan. It took Trump 63 hours to make Assad pay for his chemical-weapons duplicity.

“America demonstrated its capacity for swift, decisive action.  And in defense, mind you, of an abstract international norm – a rationale that dramatically overrides the constraints of America First....

“The larger lesson is this: In the end, national interest prevails.  Populist isolationism sounds great, rouses crowds and may even win elections.  But contra White House adviser Stephen Bannon, it’s not a governing foreign policy for the United States....

“With apologies to Lord Palmerston, we don’t have permanent enthusiasms, but we do have permanent interests. And they have a way of asserting themselves. Which is why Bannonism is in eclipse.

“This is not to say that things could not change tomorrow.  We’ve just witnessed one about-face.  With a president who counts unpredictability as a virtue, he could well reverse course again.

“For now, however, the traditionalists are in the saddle.  U.S. policy has been normalized. The world is on notice: Eight years of sleepwalking is over.  America is back.”

Wall Street

Josh Hafner / USA TODAY

“Maybe the swamp will just drain itself?

“President Donald Trump is shedding a slew of positions he flaunted on the campaign trail last year, with the New York billionaire turning his ear to – surprise! – advisers from the world of Wall Street over nationalist folk here and (for now) strategist Steve Bannon.

“Trump’s administration changed tunes on Russia, China, NATO, the Ex-IM Bank, the national debt and that whole ‘America First’ thing, all in a week.

“Who’da thunk a billionaire living in a tower of gold and crystal would forgo campaign promises that appeal to the common man?

“After swearing he’d call China a currency manipulator on ‘Day One’ of his presidency, Trump refused to do so with the Wall Street Journal. ‘They’re not currency manipulators,’ he said.  He went soft on NATO, too, yesterday: ‘I said it was obsolete.  It’s no longer obsolete.’

“Trump once claimed he would do away with America’s nearly $20 trillion debt by the end of his presidency. His budget director recently said ‘that was hyperbole.’  The Ex-IM Bank, which Trump once decried as ‘unnecessary,’ was this week ‘a very good thing.’

“And Trump’s ‘America First’ doctrine took a sudden shift last Thursday after he authorized a missile strike in Syria – a move he criticized Barack Obama for considering in 2013.  With that now comes tensions with Syria’s ally, Russia, and Vladimir Putin, whom Trump praised during his campaign. America’s relations with the nuclear power ‘may be at an all-time low,’ Trump said.

“No worries though, gang. He’s sure it will ‘work out fine.’”

Meanwhile, economists are far less sanguine about future growth prospects for the U.S. economy than they were on, say, Inauguration Day.  As the Wall Street Journal reported Thursday, its latest survey of some 61 financial, academic and business economists, conducted April 7 to April 11, shows that forecasts for the first quarter called for 2.3% growth back in December, which fell to 1.9% in March and today is just 1.4%.  [My favorite Atlanta Fed GDPNow indicator is down to 0.5% for Q1, after Friday’s lousy retail sales figures.]

The reality of a stalled Trump agenda is hitting everyone in the face.  Forget flip-flopping as in all the above.  The foremost goals of repealing and replacing ObamaCare, tax reform, and the launching of a major infrastructure project are seemingly dead in the water.  In January, enactment of all three by August seemed a certainty, at least that is what everyone from Trump to House Speaker Paul Ryan was convincing the business and financial community would be the case.

Josh Zumbrun / Wall Street Journal

“But the collapse of the initiative to ‘repeal and replace’ President Barack Obama’s signature health-care law last month underscored deep divisions in the Republican Party. They could make it difficult to reach consensus on initiatives that could provide economic stimulus, such as lower corporate taxes or federal funding for infrastructure.

“ ‘Many people still remain too invested in Trump’s campaign promises of a large fiscal stimulus program,’ said Bernard Baumohl, chief economist of the Economic Outlook Group.  ‘But as time passes, the lack of follow-through will turn that optimism into disappointment, if not outright skepticism.’”

The S&P 500 is now up a whopping 2.5% since Inauguration Day.  Like whoopty-damn-do, to borrow Derrick Coleman’s phrase (Coleman being a former NBA All-Star and not a Wall Street prognosticator).

And Trump is being helter-skelter with the agenda once again.  Now, he told the Journal and Fox Business this week, he intends to finish dealing with healthcare first, before moving on to tax reform legislation.

“Health care is going to happen at some point,” Trump said on Fox.  “Now, if it doesn’t happen fast enough, I’ll start the taxes.  But the tax reform and the tax cuts are better if I can do health care first.”

After the election consumer confidence, and then business confidence, soared.  But, again, reality has a way of waking people up, whether it be on the geopolitical or economic fronts.

And once again House Republicans are acting like a surly mob.  Many are fearful that the failure on their part to repeal ObamaCare has spelled doom for the rest of Trump’s agenda.

As Scotty Wong of The Hill writes:

“Some Capitol Hill Republicans have envisioned the nightmare scenario for 2017, and it goes like this: No ObamaCare repeal.  No tax reform.  No trillion-dollar infrastructure package.  No border wall.

“It’s a striking change from the period after Election Day, when GOP leaders vowed that the new unified Republican government would ‘go big, go bold’ and deliver for the American people.

“While many Republicans hold out hope the ObamaCare repeal bill will be revived, skeptics say the GOP infighting during last month’s healthcare collapse may have poisoned the well for future big-ticket legislative deals.  ‘I don’t see how you put a coalition together to deal with tax reform,’ said one House Republican who is close to Speaker Paul Ryan and his leadership team.  ‘Unless we can bridge this divide and get a win on the board, I don’t know how we pull the other things together, all the other big things we gotta do.’....

“And the recriminations among Republicans only seem to be getting nastier.

“Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.), the head of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, ‘is a pathological liar who isn’t interest in getting to yes,’ one House GOP colleague of Meadows told The Hill in a fit of frustration over the stalled health negotiations.

“But Rep. Raul Labrador (R-Idaho), a fellow Freedom Caucus leader, defended Meadows as ‘a man of great integrity.’  ‘When members of Congress resort to personal attacks while hiding behind anonymity,’ Labrador said, ‘it’s usually because their position is weak in the first place.’”

When it comes to tax reform, Speaker Ryan is convinced he can unify everyone around the topic, but you start out with major resistance to Ryan’s proposed border-adjustment plan, which would impose a 20 percent tax on imports, and kill the likes of Wal-Mart.  On this topic, Trump himself is all over the place.

For now, Congress needs to quickly pass a spending bill by April 28 to avert at least a partial government shutdown.  Seeing as the House isn’t scheduled to return from its recess until April 25, this won’t be easy.

As for the economic numbers on this holiday-shortened week, we had a few releases.

Producer prices for March were -0.1%, 2.3% year-over-year, while the core figure, ex-food and energy, was unchanged for the month and 1.6% the past 12.

Consumer prices fell 0.3%, with the CPI now up 2.4% yoy, while the core was -0.1%, 2.0% the last 12 months.

Retail sales for March fell 0.2% after -0.3% in February.  But the core, ex-gasoline, autos and other stuff, rose 0.5%.

And then there’s this...a favorite topic of mine since the first “Week in Review.”

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“President Obama left his successor many time bombs – think chemical weapons in Syria and the collapsing Affordable Care Act. But a burning fuse that gets less attention showed its first signs of the explosion to come in Friday’s Congressional Budget Office review for March: Rising net interest payments on the national debt.

“CBO reported that the federal budget deficit rose $63 billion in the first half of fiscal 2017 (October-March) to $522 billion from a year earlier.  But here’s the especially bad omen: Net interest payments rose $7 billion, or 30%, in March from a year earlier.

“If that seems small, consider that interest payments rose $28 billion for the six months of fiscal 2017 to $152 billion.  That’s a 22.2% increase, among the biggest in any single spending item highlighted by CBO. The increases reflect the growing debt but in particular the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates after years of near-zero rates.

“While Mr. Obama was doubling the national debt over eight years, the Fed’s monetary policies spared him from the fiscal consequences.  The Fed’s near-zero policy kept interest rates at historic lows that reduced net interest payments even as the overall debt increased.  The Fed’s bond-buying programs also earned money that the Fed turned over to Treasury each year, reducing the size of the federal budget deficit by tens of billions of dollars.

“This not-so-free Fed lunch is starting to end.

“All of this is about to explode on President Trump’s watch, and it will complicate the task for Republicans as they try to reform the tax code within tighter budget constraints.”

Europe and Asia

News out of Europe has been minimal as governments are in the midst of their own recesses and there have been few economic releases.

Germany’s inflation rate cooled off in March, 1.5% annualized after hitting a four-year high of 2.2% in February, according to Destatis.  This would appear to be the case throughout Europe, which means the European Central Bank won’t be pulling its quantitative easing program anytime soon, though the level of monthly purchases is going to be reduced per a prior schedule from May through the balance of the year.

In the U.K., retail sales in the first quarter were down 0.7% year-over-year, but exports are running at their best pace since the fourth quarter of 2014.  Regarding the consumer, wages aren’t growing faster than inflation and it’s forcing them to cut back, especially with the Brexit uncertainty.  The official consumer price index for March was 2.3%.  [Britain is an exception to the rest of Europe in terms of inflation because of the collapse in sterling.]

Separately, London’s housing market appears to have hit its worst patch since the financial crisis, though prices are still expected to rise over the coming 12 months.

But with politicians taking some time off and Brexit negotiations not slated to begin in earnest until a European summit end of the month, the big story is the French presidential election, the first round of voting in just one week, April 23.

Suddenly it is a four-way contest, and a tight one, with the latest poll showing Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen tied at 24%, while far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon, who has been surging, comes in at 18% and Francois Fillon at 17%.  [Kantar Sofres poll]

The Melenchon surge has shaken the financial markets as there is now a possibility, albeit a very slight one, that Melenchon and Le Pen could finish 1-2, guaranteeing a radical shift at the top.

The Communist-backed far-left Melenchon is the best orator of the four and he has been drawing large crowds who are regaled with tales of the evils of “extreme markets that are transforming suffering, misery and abandonment into gold and money.”  He alludes to France as a country “with huge wealth that is badly distributed,” while denouncing U.S. air strikes in Syria and calling for France to leave NATO.  His plan to spend his way out of France’s economic woes is also unsettling to the markets.  All you need to know is that the yield premium between the German and French 10-year bonds is now 73 basis points, 0.18% in Germany, 0.91% in France, which has been increasing the past two weeks as Melenchon gains in the polls and Le Pen holds her own.

IF there was a shock on April 23 and it’s, say, Le Pen 24%, Melenchon 22% and Macron 21%, all hell would truly break loose.

Look for major fireworks this last week on the campaign trail.  In Melenchon, Russia suddenly has someone new to support as well.

A few other tidbits....

Swedish authorities said the 39-year-old man suspected of driving a truck into a crowd in downtown Stockholm, killing four and injuring 15, had sought residency in Sweden in 2014, a request the state denied in June last year.  In late February, police issued a warrant in his name for failing to report for his deportation.  The commander for the Swedish police said, “He had gone missing. He was not present at the address that he had provided.”

In the first 10 months of 2016, nearly 70% of the individuals in 6,647 deportation cases police received from the immigration agency had absconded.

A major tragedy was averted when Borussia Dortmund’s team bus was targeted by a bomb attack on Tuesday night before a Champions League clash with Monaco in Dortmund, Germany, but the three explosions only injured one player and a motorcycle policeman, neither seriously, though the player, Marc Bartra, will miss a month or two of action with a broken right wrist.  It was  a suspected terror attack.

Turning to Asia, some economic news out of China. March exports came in much stronger than expected, up 16.4%, in $ terms, vs. 4% growth in the first two months of the year...the volatile Lunar New Year holiday period.  Imports rose 20.3%, though this was down from the 26% pace of January/February.  The exports number is a strong sign of strengthening external demand.

March producer prices rose 7.6% year-over-year, down slightly from February’s 7.8% pace, which was a nine-year high. Consumer prices rose 0.9% annualized in March vs. February’s 0.8% pace.

Domestic auto sales rose 4% in March over the past 12 months, though this compares to 22.4% the prior month, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.

Street Bytes

--Stocks fell a second straight week, down 1% on the Dow Jones to 20453, 1.1% for the S&P 500 and 1.2% for Nasdaq, which is down two weeks in a row for the first time this year.

As noted above, it’s not just the fact there are serious doubts about implementation of the Trump pro-growth agenda, but for the first time in quite a while, geopolitics is at the forefront.

--U.S. Treasury Yields

6-mo. 0.92%  2-yr. 1.21%  10-yr. 2.24%  30-yr. 2.89%

While this isn’t an issue until 2018, when Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s term expires, Trump told the Wall Street Journal he was open to bringing her back. He has to re-nominate Yellen and she would have to accept for her to stay on.  Trump, who was highly critical of Yellen and the Fed during the campaign, said, “I like her, I respect her.”

--According to the latest S&P Indices Versus Active funds scorecard, over the 15 years ended in December 2016, 82% of all U.S. equity funds trailed their respective benchmarks.  That’s certainly a full market cycle.  [Daisy Maxey and Chris Dieterich / Wall Street Journal]

--Crude oil retreated at week’s end after a string of advances following a government report that showed U.S. production climbed to the highest level in more than a year, offsetting data on declining stockpiles.  [Oil still finished up on the week overall to $52.91 on West Texas Intermediate.]

Inventories fell more than expected, 2.17 million barrels to 533.4 million, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday.  Prices had risen earlier on reports Saudi Arabia would support an extension of OPEC-led production cuts.

But at the same time, you continue to see rising U.S. output that could counter OPEC’s reductions.  In its monthly report, also Wednesday, OPEC boosted estimates for rival suppliers as shale drillers continue to emerge from their two-year slump.

American crude production rose by 36,000 barrels a day to 9.24 million barrels a day in the week ended April 7, the most since January 2016.  The rig count also rose to 672 last week, as reported by Baker Hughes, the most since August 2015.  [And now 683 this week.]

Add it all up and the International Energy Agency said on Thursday that the global oil market is “very close” to coming into balance, but cautioned that weaker demand growth and strong U.S. production mean OPEC’s attempts to curb supplies remains challenging.

--What a week for United Continental Holdings Inc., parent of United Airlines, after United ordered a passenger forcibly removed from a plane in Chicago shortly before departure Sunday to make room for a United employee.  CEO Oscar Munoz’ initial response, that United had to “re-accommodate” the man, turned the airline into a punch line on social media.  The man, Dr. David Dao, was bloodied in the encounter with security officials, the video of which went viral.

In a subsequent letter to employees, Munoz said the customer was “disruptive” and “belligerent” when he wouldn’t relinquish his seat.  It took almost 24 hours before Munoz struck a different tone.

“The truly horrific event that occurred on this flight has elicited many responses from all of us: outrage, anger, disappointment,” he said in a statement Tuesday.  “I deeply apologize to the customer forcibly removed and to all the customers aboard. No one should ever be mistreated this way.”

Wednesday, Munoz said the carrier would no longer rely on law enforcement to remove seated, paying customers.  “This can never, will never, happen again on a United Airlines flight,” he said on ABC’s “Good Morning America.”  Munoz said he has also committed to a thorough review of United’s policies for handling oversold flights.

But the damage was long done.  Social media had a field day.  In China, a crucial part of United’s lucrative trans-Pacific network, the incident was a focus of both social media and editorials.  David Dao appeared to be of Asian descent, and we learned on Thursday he is Vietnamese, not Chinese. Dao, Wednesday, was said to be receiving treatment in a Chicago hospital for his injuries, according to a statement from his lawyers.

Later, United announced that every passenger aboard Flight 3411 bound for Louisville would get a refund following the chaotic removal of Dao.

Then Thursday, attorney Thomas Demetrio, part of a team representing Dr. Dao, said his client had suffered a concussion, a broken nose and two lost teeth, and that he would need reconstructive surgery.  He was discharged from the hospital on Wednesday.

Demetrio said Dao told him “that he left Vietnam in 1975, when Saigon fell, and he was on a boat, and he said he was terrified. He said that being dragged down the aisle was more horrifying and terrible than what he experienced in leaving Vietnam.”

Demetrio acknowledged Dao could have chosen to comply with the airline and officers’ instructions to leave the aircraft.  Under federal law, airlines are allowed to remove passengers from a flight for failing to comply with instructions from the crew.

Just two weeks earlier, United had suffered social media scorn for enforcing its employee dress code for those who fly as non-revenue passengers, such as relatives of employees.  Two young girls flying from Denver were told to change their leggings before boarding.  The airline was forced to tell “our regular customers” that “leggings are welcome.”

John Podhoretz / New York Post

“In 1962, the baseball veteran Casey Stengel took on the job of manager of the newly minted New York Mets, who were so bad in their first year that he famously asked, ‘Can’t anybody here play this game?’

“Fifty-five years later, Americans can be forgiven for wondering the same this week – except we aren’t talking about a ragtag expansion team made up of players discarded from other ball clubs but about important American institutions ranging from the world’s third-largest airline to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. 

“And this ain’t no game.

“The decline of public faith in our institutions – from the media to Congress to banks to the presidency to businesses to places of worship – is among the most serious crises of our time. It breeds cynicism, lack of trust and a general feeling of social and cultural unsteadiness, as though the pillars supporting our way of life are hollow and crumbling.

“We need those pillars.  But any effort to convince people that they should trust the pillars to bear the weight of a complex and troubled society is not only a fool’s errand, it’s foolhardy.

“When America’s leaders act not with discretion and care and seriousness of purpose – as everyone hopes those responsible for maintaining the infrastructure of our civil society would and should – but rather with ass-covering incompetence, why should people trust these leaders to know what they’re doing or have anyone’s best interests at heart other than their own?

“Why should they have confidence that anybody knows what he’s doing?

“The shocking manhandling of Dr. David Dao on United Airlines Flight 367 was a horrible spectacle – but it was the insulting, Orwellian and craven behavior of United’s chief executive that turned a dreadful incident into a corporate meltdown. At every point in the scandal thus far, Oscar Munoz has responded in a way that degrades what little goodwill any American traveler might have for the airline he has managed since 2015.

“First, he blamed the passenger and told United personnel he had their backs.  Then he expressed regret for having had to ‘re-accommodate’ Dr. Dao by having goons force him off a plane Dao had been invited to board. And then he threw himself on the mercy of the court of public opinion by saying, ‘My initial words fell short of truly expressing the shame.’

“In March, Munoz was named ‘Communicator of the Year’ by PRWeek Magazine. In other words, he’s supposed to be really good at this business of, you know, communicating.”

As reported this week, Dr. Dao has had numerous run-ins with the law, but just as in some of the police abuse cases, a victim’s prior record has nothing to do with the specific circumstances of the case, and on the issue of Dao, I’ll leave it at that.

By the way, according to the Department of Transportation, the easiest way to reduce the risk of being bumped on a flight is to get to the airport early.  For passengers in the same fare class, the last passengers to check in are usually the first to be bumped.

--JPMorgan Chase got third-quarter reporting season for the financials off to a solid start Thursday, posting a 17 percent rise in net income despite signs of a marked slowdown in the retail banking unit.  Earnings per share of $1.65 were comfortably ahead of expectations.

Net revenues for the period of $24.68bn were slightly below estimates, though the investment banking unit saw revenues climb 36 percent to $1.8bn.  The retail unit – JPM’s biggest by revenues – saw a 39 percent drop in mortgage fees amid a sharp pick-up in interest rates.  Overall, revenues from the consumer and community banking unit dropped 1 percent, to just shy of $11bn.

With two interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve in recent months, the big retail banks have been able to boost their net interest margins – or the gap between the yield on their assets and the rates they pay to borrow money, and banks like Chase have managed to hold the line on deposits while charging more for loans.

--Citigroup posted a better than expected 17 percent rise in quarterly profits, propelled by revenue growth in its institutional business, up 16 percent to $9.13bn..

Overall, revenues climbed 3 percent to $18.12bn, also exceeding the Street’s forecast.  Investment banking revenues surged 39 percent to $1.21 billion.  The fixed income trading unit saw a rise of 19 percent to $3.62bn.

But, as in the case of JPM, the consumer banking unit’s revenues rose just 1 percent.

--Wells Fargo saw its net income fall 1 percent in the first three months of 2017 to $5.06bn, as it continues to suffer from its bogus customer account scandal. Revenues also eased 1 percent, to $22bn.

Credit-card applications plunged by 42 percent, to 200,000, during the first quarter, the bank announced.  New checking account applications fell by 35 percent, to 400,000.

--Separately, in a scathing 113-page report, Wells Fargo’s board released the results of its six-month investigation into the conditions and culture that prompted thousands of the bank’s employees to create millions of fraudulent accounts in an attempt to meet sales targets.

Wells’ board said Monday that it would claw back an additional $75 million in compensation from the two executives on whom it pinned the most blame, former CEO John Stumpf, and the former head of community banking, Carrie Tolstedt.

The board’s report blamed a decentralized structure that gave department heads like Ms. Tolstedt broad authority to “run it like you own it,” and so some of the problems went unnoticed for a long time.  Then, when the Los Angeles Times first broke the story of the fake accounts, management was too slow to take action.

Stumpf was hands-off to the extreme, it seems.  As for Tolstedt, she turned a blind eye to signs that some managers and employees were cheating to meet their sales goals.

--Barclays PLC CEO Jes Staley will be reprimanded and the bank will cut his pay after regulators began an investigation into how he tried to unmask a whistleblower last year. Staley admitted his error and formally apologized to the board.

--Tesla’s market value, which had exceeded Ford Motor Co.’s last week, surpassed General Motors’ on Monday (though finished the week slightly below).  AutoNation Inc. CEO Mike Jackson said during an interview that the auto maker “is either one of the great Ponzi schemes of all time” or will eventually work out for investors.

Jackson called Tesla overvalued and GM undervalued, arguing the former will continue to struggle making money selling electric cars despite its loyal following. Competition will be a growing issue.

As long as gasoline prices are relatively cheap, the market share for electric vehicles will be just a sliver of that of trucks and SUVs.

Jackson told an audience in New York the other day, “This shift to sport-utility vehicles – it is permanent, it is structural, it is long term, because customers passionately love these vehicles.”

Thursday, Tesla shares rose anew after Elon Musk tweeted that the automaker would unveil its pickup truck in September, or what he calls its “semi-truck.”  “Team has done an amazing job.  Seriously next level.”

--According to the California Department of Water Resources, as of Thursday, an astonishing 89.7 inches of precipitation had fallen across a zone of eight stations in the northern Sierra since October, breaking the record 88.5 inches that fell during the 1982-83 rainy season.

Last week, Gov. Jerry Brown announced the drought was over in California except in four counties.

--The following could be important for your younger children.  In reading my latest issue of Army Times (aka Military Times), there is a story on “In-demand cyber skills” and the “10 best cybersecurity programs,” all NSA accredited; meaning they are on the National Security Agency’s list of “National Centers of Academic Excellence in Cyber Defense Education.” 

This article is geared for army vets, but of course it’s all about finding lifetime security and employment for everyone.

1. Syracuse Univ.
2. Univ. of Nebraska at Omaha
3. Drexel Univ.
4. Bellevue Univ. (Bellevue, Neb.)
5. Univ. of Maryland College (Adelphi, Md.)
6. Florida State Univ.
7. University of South Florida
8. Lewis University (Romeoville, Ill.)
9. Armstrong State Univ. (Savannah, Ga.)
10. Towson Univ.

--Editorial / New York Post

“It’s up to the courts as to whether Arturo Di Modica has any legal right to stop the ‘Fearless Girl’ statue from destroying the meaning of his own ‘Charging Bull’ – but he’s clearly right to call out that truth.

“At his own expense ($350,000), the Italian sculptor created the bull decades ago to symbolize the strength and resilience of Wall Street.  But the girl (though a fine work in its own right) turns his bull into a symbol of...sexism.

“Adding insult to injury, State Street Global Advisors installed ‘Fearless Girl’ as an advertising ploy – with a plaque that even subtly promoted the company’s SHE investment fund.  Should an ad be allowed to destroy Di Modica’s art?....

“The offending statue can still make its point if placed elsewhere, (Modica) argues – say, facing not the bull, but the Stock Exchange itself.

“State Street, and the city, should consider that move: It might even strengthen the message of ‘Fearless Girl.’”

It’s been decades since I worked down in this area, but the bull was actually an easy meeting place after work.  I can’t say it had any special meaning to me, but it’s a very cool work of art and in the appropriate place.

‘Fearless Girl’?  C’mon.  There are a hundred other places it could be downtown.

But to compound things, Mayor Bill de Blasio says it will stay, because, of course, he is running for reelection and he has to appease a particular base who care nothing about Mr. Modica’s rights.

--Embattled Fox News host Bill O’Reilly went on a little vacation this week, with a slated return of April 24; this in the midst of a sexual harassment scandal and advertiser boycott, so for all we know, it could be a suspension.

Some believe, though, that Tuesday night’s show may have been his last.  As reported by Gabriel Sherman of New York magazine, “Lawyers for the law firm Paul, Weiss, hired last summer by 21st Century Fox to investigate Roger Ailes, are currently doing a ‘deep dive’ investigation into O’Reilly’s behavior. They’re focused now on sexual harassment claims by O’Reilly guest Wendy Walsh after she reported her experiences via the company’s anonymous hotline.”

O’Reilly’s future is in the hands of the Murdochs.  “It’s up to the family,” a senior Fox News staffer told Sherman. The Murdochs are divided over how to handle it.

CEO James Murdoch apparently wants O’Reilly gone, while father Rupert, and older brother, Lachlan, want to keep him.  It was James who won out last year in the ouster of Ailes.

Despite the scandal, O’Reilly’s ratings were up last week after the reports the network shelled out $13 million to five women who accused him of sexual harassment and improper conduct. Compared with the same week last year, the audience was up 28% in total viewers and 42% in the key 25-54 demographic.

--I saw where revenue at Connecticut’s two Indian casinos fell for the ninth straight year amid growing competition in the Northeast, according to a report released Tuesday.  Nathan Associates Inc., an economic consulting firm, also notes the figures for 2015 (latest available), which exclude revenue from accommodations and shows – are down by 36% from the last peak in 2006.  [Wall Street Journal]

--“Kong: Skull Island” continues to rake it in in China, now up to $161 million, according to film industry consultancy Artisan Gateway.  It helps to have a Chinese actress, Jing Tian, in the flick.

“Kong” has generated $536 million in worldwide receipts as of last weekend.  So far, the beast seems to be handling his renewed stardom fairly well, given his rather surly disposition.

--Lastly, we note the passing of Eugene M. Lang, an investor whose spur-of-the-moment promise to an East Harlem sixth-grade graduating class that he would pay for their college education inspired a foundation, led to the support of more than 16,000 children nationwide and made him a bit of an American folk hero, with stories on “60 Minutes” and other news shows.  Lang, 98,  died at his Manhattan home last weekend. 

Lang was a self-made businessman who, as the New York Times put it, “flew coach class and traveled on subways and buses,” yet contributed more than $150 million to charities and institutions during his lifetime, including a single $50 million gift in 2012 to Swarthmore College in Pennsylvania, his alma mater.

But it was his decision in June 1981, which I well remember from local news coverage, when he was invited to give a sixth grade commencement address at Public School 121 on East 103rd Street, for which he is best known.

“I looked out at that audience of almost entirely black and Hispanic students, wondering what to say to them,” he recalled. He had intended to tell them, their families and their teachers that he had attended P.S. 121 more than a half-century earlier, that he had worked hard and made a lot of money and that if they worked hard, maybe they could be successful, too.

But, he said, “it dawned on me that the commencement banalities I planned were completely irrelevant.”

“So I began by telling them that one of my most memorable experiences was Martin Luther King’s ‘I Have a Dream’ speech, and that everyone should have a dream,” he said.  “Then I decided to tell them I’d give a scholarship to every member of the class admitted to a four-year college.”

Lang was invited to the White House by President Reagan as his story spread.

But he had been told that maybe one or two of the students would actually take advantage of the offer.

So Lang “adopted” the class, treating them to trips and restaurant meals, and counseled them through crises, and in the end, at least half of the 61 enrolled in public and private colleges.  Of those who passed up college, Lang often found them jobs.

[The Daily News reported that some students were bitter when they misunderstood the offer as a promise to pay tuition even at expensive colleges.]

So in keeping with the above, this week New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced his much-heralded new program for free tuition at state colleges, everyone cheered, and then people realized, hey, this is hardly the great deal it’s cranked up to be.

Under a provision added to the tuition bill at the last moment, students who get a free ride at CUNY and SUNY schools must live and work in New York state for up to four years after graduation, or be forced to pay the money back.

When I first heard of the program, and the cost, it seemed pretty minimal for the scope being discussed, and then you realize it’s just tuition, and not housing, books, meal plans and transportation costs which can easily rival or exceed the cost of tuition.  Plus you are required to carry 15 credits, which makes it difficult to take a job to pay for the other expenses.

And as Crain’s New York Business reports: “private, nonprofit schools must remain an option for anyone considering a college education” and the Excelsior Scholarships close the door on New York schools “with a proven record of maximizing graduates’ earning power, without regard to socioeconomic status.”

Schools such as Pace University, which a 2017 study ranked first in New York and second in the nation “at moving students from the bottom of the income scale to the top 20%.  Yet the governor’s proposal excludes Pace and more than 100 other private colleges and universities in the state.”

[A long, long time ago, when I had my first job on Wall Street, I took some MBA classes at night at Pace.  Excellent school, but it was nuts from a time commitment standpoint.]

Foreign Affairs

North Korea: National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster on Sunday defended the administration’s move to send a carrier strike group toward the Korean Peninsula.

“It’s prudent to do it, isn’t it?” McMaster said on “Fox News Sunday.”

“North Korea has been engaged in a pattern of provocative behavior.  This is a rogue regime that is now a nuclear-capable regime.”

McMaster said that Chinese President Xi and President Trump agree that a nuclear regime in Pyongyang is unacceptable.

“That what must happen is the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula,” he said.  “And so the president has asked us to be prepared to give him a full range of options to remove that threat to the American people and to our allies and partners in the region.”

The U.S., aside from lobbying China heavily, is reportedly preparing tough new sanctions that would involve an oil embargo, intercepting cargo ships and banning the country’s airline, Air Koryo.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said, “Military force cannot resolve the issue.  Whoever provokes the situation, whoever continues to make trouble in this place, they will have to assume historical responsibility.”

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said North Korea may have the ability to launch missiles carrying deadly sarin gas at his country.

Pyongyang warned Trump that it is prepared for war and is ready to use its “powerful nuclear deterrent.”

Vice foreign minister Han Song Ryol blamed Trump for building up a “vicious cycle” of tensions on the Korean Peninsula, saying that his “aggressive” tweets were “making trouble.”

Meanwhile, Chinese state media has been harsh on Pyongyang, a rarity. The Global Times, a government mouthpiece, warned Beijing would support stiffer action against its historical ally.

“More and more Chinese support the view that the government should enhance sanctions over Pyongyang’s nuclear activities,” the paper editorialized.  ‘If the North makes another provocative move this month, the Chinese society will be willing to see the [UN Security Council] adopt severe restrictive measures that have never been seen before, such as restricting oil imports to the North.”

Saturday is North Korea’s “Day of the Sun” celebration, marking the 105th anniversary of the birth of Kim Il Sung, the country’s founder.

The Trump administration has given its assurances that any action it decides to take will first be cleared with the South Korean government, which politicians there are demanding.

Afghanistan: The United States dropped the most powerful non-nuclear bomb in its arsenal on an ISIS stronghold in Afghanistan, Thursday, a strike that President Trump hailed as “very, very successful,” and which Afghan defense officials said resulted in at least 36 deaths, no civilian casualties, though they later hedged on the total of ISIS killed.

It was the first time the bomb – which packs the punch of 11 tons of TNT and was created in 2003 for possible use in Iraq – was employed on the battlefield. 

The bomb, officially called the GBU-43/B, exploded while still in the air, creating a huge downward shockwave that is meant to collapse the tunnels.

The U.S. estimated that 600 to 800 ISIS fighters were on the ground at the time.. ISIS has been conducting strikes on government and U.S. forces in the area while battling the rival Taliban.

Last week, U.S. Army Special Forces soldier, Staff Sgt. Mark De Alencar, 37, of Edgewood, Md., was killed in action in there, Nangarhar Province, near the Pakistani border.

Trump, in lauding the mission, said he had authorized the military to act.

“We have the greatest military in the world, and they’ve done a great job as usual.  We have given them total authorization, and that’s what they’re doing, and frankly, that’s why they’ve been so successful lately,” he said.  Then Trump took a shot at Barack Obama.

“If you look at what’s happened over the last eight weeks and compare that really to what’s happened over the past eight years, you’ll see there’s a tremendous difference, tremendous difference,” Trump said.

When asked if the bomb was meant to send a message to North Korea, the president said: “I don’t know if this sends a message.  It doesn’t make any difference if it does or not.  North Korea is a problem, the problem will be taken care of.”

Editorial / Haaretz

“As statements go, few say more than a 10-ton bomb.  In this case, when it’s being dropped on a foreign battlefield on the orders of a new president who campaigned on an isolationist platform, the GBU-43 Massive Ordnance Air Blast, better known as MOAB or the largest non-nuclear bomb ever used operationally, is a message designed to send shockwaves much further afield than Afghanistan’s Nangarhar Province.

“The official reason for using the MOAB was to destroy an underground cave and tunnel complex from which fighters of the ISIS branch in Afghanistan were operating against U.S. and Afghan troops.  However, this isn’t the first time in the last thirteen years, during which the GBU-43 has been operational, that American troops have faced a fierce enemy underground. In previous cases smaller munitions were used.  Each MOAB costs about $16 million.  It’s too large to be launched from a regular fighter-jet and is instead dropped by a specially modified MC-130, a version of the venerable Hercules transport plane used by Special Forces.

Only fifteen such bombs are known to have been manufactured, and they were being kept for a different mission. Together with the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP), which is designed to be launched from B-2 stealth bombers and penetrate rock and reinforced concrete and explode underground, the MOAB was to be used in a possible American strike against Iran’s underground nuclear installations.  For now, the nuclear deal with Iran is holding and the MOPs and MOABs can be used against other targets.

“While the Pentagon’s official version is that it was the operational commanders who authorized the use of this specific weapon, it is inconceivable that expending such a devastating and rare strategic munition could have been done without the president’s OK.  This wasn’t just a technical-tactical choice of weapon.  This was a message....

“To the folks at home, the message is that this administration isn’t gunning just for the Assad regime – it’s still going after ISIS, only using bigger and better weapons than Obama did.  To the Kremlin, to Kim Jong-Un and to the Iranians, the message is that this president doesn’t hesitate to use everything America’s arsenals have to offer.  Whether there’s a plan here, still remains to be seen.

“If Trump was a spiritual or learned man, he may have been motivated by the sixtieth chapter in Psalms describing King David’s conquests – ‘Moab is my washpot; over Edom will I cast out my shoe: Philistia, triumph thou because of me.’  But he is neither, he’s a man about town.  Instead it is more accurate to say that MOAB is Trump’s statement weapon.”

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“As demonstration effects go, it would be hard to top the bomb the U.S. dropped Thursday on Islamic State in Afghanistan. The 21,000 pound GBU-43, or ‘mother of all bombs,’ landed on Islamic State installations in eastern Afghanistan.

“What happened at the receiving end of the bomb isn’t known, nor would White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer say whether President Trump personally gave authorization, which isn’t needed to deploy the GBU-43.  But like the 59 Tomahawk cruise missiles that struck a Syrian airfield last week, the right people no doubt noticed this display of American purpose.

“At the top of the list would be Islamic State, which Mr. Trump has promised to eliminate.  The terrorist group has seized territory in Afghanistan’s Nangarhar Province, near the border with Pakistan.  The Afghan army, supported by the U.S., has taken significant losses in its attempt to dislodge ISIS.  The commander of U.S. forces in Afghanistan, Gen. John Nicholson, called the GBU-43 smart bomb the ‘right munition’ to ‘maintain momentum’ against ISIS....

“Momentum routinely wilts beneath the politics and factions across the Middle East.  The strike against Syria and now the use in Afghanistan of the biggest non-nuclear bomb in the active U.S. arsenal makes clear America’s resolve to our allies.  Islamic State won’t be defeated without buy-in from those allies.

“We may also assume that the missile-launching crowd in Pyongyang noticed the deployment of the GBU-43.  Far be it from us to suggest that the U.S. drop one on a North Korean nuclear factory. But in the space of a week, Kim Jong Un, Vladimir Putin, Bashar Assad, Xi Jinping and ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, wherever he is hiding, have learned that the U.S. considers it to be in its interest to push back hard against its adversaries’ aggression.”

Turkey: Turks go to the polls on Sunday in a huge referendum on whether to make President Recep Tayyip Erdogan a strongman, unchecked by any real separation of powers.  The aim of Sunday’s vote is to give the president immunity before the courts and remove any accountability to parliament.  His loyalists say this will allow him to get the nation through its many challenges, from a struggling economy to multiple terrorist attacks.

Recent polls, however, have showed half of the population not wanting to support one-man rule.  The stakes are enormous.

Daniel Pipes / Wall Street Journal

“This Sunday, millions of Turks will vote to endorse or reject constitutional amendments passed in January by Turkey’s Parliament.  An opinion piece published by the German news agency Deutsche Welle explains that the ‘crucial’ amendments ‘give all the power to one person, with almost no accountability,’ eliminating what is left of democracy in Turkey.  Virtually all observers agree that if the referendum passes, Turkey will be transformed into an authoritarian state.

“I, along with a few others, disagree.  Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan years ago arrogated all the powers that the constitutional changes would bestow on him.  He is already lord of all he sees for as long as he wants, whether through democratic means or by fixing election results.  If the referendum passes, it will merely prettify that reality.

“Consider the nature of Mr. Erdogan’s power.  The obsequious prime minister, Binali Yildirim, tirelessly advocates for the constitutional changes that will eliminate his own office, historically the most powerful in the country.  Criticism of the almighty president can get even a child thrown into jail. The most tenuous connection to a (possibly staged) coup d’etat attempt last July means losing one’s job – or worse.  The state routinely jails journalists on the bogus charge of terrorism, and truly independent publications are shuttered.

“If Mr. Erdogan has no need for constitutional changes, which amount to a legislative triviality, why does he obsessively chase them?  Perhaps as added insurance against ever being hauled into court for his illegal actions.  Perhaps to assure a handpicked successor the power to continue his program.  Perhaps to flatter his vanity.

‘Whatever the source of Mr. Erdogan’s compulsion, it greatly damages Turkey’s standing in the world.  When his aides were not permitted to rally Turks living in Germany for the constitutional changes, he accused the Germans of ‘employing Nazi measures.’  He also compared the Netherlands to a banana republic after Turkish ministers were prevented from speaking in Rotterdam.  This souring of relations has already led to a breakdown in military ties with Germany....

“This insistence on doing things his way fits a pattern.  Mr. Erdogan could have won visa-free travel for Turks traveling to Europe, but he refused a meaningless change to the definition of terrorism in Turkey’s criminal code.  He harms relations with Washington by making the extradition of Turkish cleric Fethullah Gulen a personal fixation.  He potentially disrupts relations with 35 countries by setting his intelligence agencies to spy on pro-Gulen Turks....

“Where will it end? The president has two apparent objectives. First, Mr. Erdogan seeks to reverse Kemal Ataturk’s westernizing reforms to reinstitute the Ottoman Empire’s Islamic ways. Second, he wants to elevate himself to the grand, ancient Islamic position of caliph, an especially vivid prospect since Islamic State resurrected this long-moribund position in 2014.

“Those two ambitions could meld together exactly 100 years after Ataturk abolished the caliphate, either on March 10, 2021 (by the Islamic calendar), or March 4, 2024 (by the Christian calendar).  Either of these dates offers a perfect occasion for Mr. Erdogan to undo the handiwork of the secular Ataturk and declare himself caliph of all Muslims."

Syria, part II: A U.S.-led coalition air strike on Tuesday mistakenly killed 18 members of the Syrian Democratic Forces south of the city of Tabqa, Syria, the Pentagon announced on Thursday.  “The strike was requested by the partnered forces, who had identified the target location as an ISIS fighting position,” it said in a statement.  “The target location was actually a forward Syrian Democratic Forces fighting position.”

Meanwhile, the Assad regime showed no sign it was deterred by the U.S. cruise missile strike on one of its air bases, launching a wave of airstrikes against the opposition last weekend.

Antigovernment activist groups said Sunday that some of the strikes used chlorine gas, as well as possibly napalm.

Assad was emboldened by the support of Iran and Russia.

Egypt: Palm Sunday proved to be Bloody Sunday in Egypt as the Coptic Christian community was ripped apart by two separate church bombings that killed at least 45 people in two cities, in an act of unbelievable cruelty.  Islamic State claimed responsibility.

Since December, ISIS, routed from its Libyan stronghold, and besieged in Iraq and Syria, has sought a new battleground and it has selected Egypt, slaughtering Christians in their homes, businesses and places of worship.  ISIS also seeks to weaken Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, while gaining a foothold beyond the remote Sinai.

I’ve told you that despite President Trump’s effusive praise of Sisi, the Egyptian leader is very weak and these two attacks further align the people against him and his ability to keep them safe.

Iran: Former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad filed to run in the country’s May presidential election, contradicting a recommendation from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to stay out of the race.  Election officials were stunned when Ahmadinejad submitted his application Wednesday.

Another hardline Iranian cleric, Ebrahim Raisi, also announced he would run for president. Raisi is seen as being close to Ayatollah Khamenei.

Polls are set for May 19 and Khamenei’s preference, whoever it may be, one would think will emerge victorious as opposition to ‘moderate’ President Rohani rises.

Rohani’s favorability rating has declined from 61% (“very favorable”) just after the Iranian nuclear deal to just 28% today, according to a University of Maryland public opinion poll conducted a few months ago.

Rohani officially registered to run for a second term on Friday.  He won in a landslide in 2013 on a platform of ending the Islamic Republic’s diplomatic isolation and creating a freer society.  But the economy did not rebound as expected with the lifting of sanctions.

Russia, cont’d:  Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev fiercely rebuked President Trump for authorizing the airstrikes on Syria.  Appearing on his Facebook page, the Moscow Times translated the text into English:

“That’s it.  The last of the campaign fog has disappeared.  Instead of the theory he disseminated about working together to fight the main enemy – ISIS, the Islamic State – the Trump administration has proved that it will viciously fight the legitimate government of Syria – in blatant violation of the norms of international law, without the approval of the UN, violating [the United States’] own procedures establishing the need to notify Congress about any military operation that isn’t tied to an attack on the U.S., and on the verge of a conflict with Russia.

“No one exaggerates the value of campaign promises, but there are nonetheless the bounds of decency.  Beyond them is absolute distrust.  What’s really sad here is our completely ruined relationship. And this, of course, only encourages the terrorists.

“And furthermore the U.S. president has proved with his military action both his lack of originality and his extreme dependence on the opinion of the Washington establishment, which sharply criticized the new president’s inauguration speech.  Immediately after his election, I knew everything would depend on how quickly the existing machine could crush Trump’s campaign promises.  It took two and a half months....”

Meanwhile, Russian opposition politician Alexei Navalny, having served his brief prison sentence for his role in demonstrations that swept Russia on March 26, is calling for a new round of protests that would take place on June 12, Russia Day, which marks the proclamation of Russia’s sovereignty in 1990.

“Our goal is simple: We, honest patriots, must do everything in our power for more people to join us...to fight against crooks and traitors,” Navalny wrote in his blog on Wednesday.  “June 12 marks a great opportunity: an official national holiday, a day off. Russia Day.  You and I, we’re fighting for the best future for Russia, right?”  [Moscow Times]

Separately, the European Court of Human Rights has ruled that Russia failed to protect the hostages of the Beslan school siege in which about 330 people died in 2004.

In the siege, Chechen rebels took more than 1,000 hostages, mostly children, and the court said the operation by Russian forces to end it used disproportionate force.

It also said officials knew an attack was imminent and did nothing to prevent it.

Russia said the ruling was “utterly unacceptable” and it would appeal.

Finally, Russia is very jealous of America’s “mother of all bombs,” so they made sure to announce Friday that they possess an even bigger bomb, the “father of all bombs,” as described by the Russian edition of Popular Mechanics in 2013.  “We have a bigger one,” the government tweeted on one of its Russian-language Twitter accounts, and “they [the U.S.] will be more scared of our ‘father.’”  [Moscow Times]

France/Spain: It’s official...Basque separatist group Eta disarmed over the weekend, with police in France having found nearly 3.5 tons of weapons, explosives and other material in eight caches that Eta handed over.  France said the weapons would be destroyed.

Eta – which now says it has surrendered all its weapons – killed more than 800 people in some 40 years of violence in pursuit of an independent country straddling France and Spain.

While France hailed the move, Spain called on Eta to disband, not just disarm.

The caches contained 120 firearms, three tons of explosives, and several thousand rounds of ammunition.

Eta was initially set up in opposition to the government of General Franco, who repressed the Basques politically and culturally.  Southwestern France was used as a base, with almost all of its attacks against Spanish targets in Spain, though some French policemen were killed in raids on Eta strongholds.

Mexico: In another flip-flop in strategy, Sen. Marco Rubio on “This Week” when queried about The Wall.  “Let me just say, Mexico’s not going to pay for the wall. And, by the way, America should, if we believe that’s in our national interests to do so.”

Every other person of authority in the U.S. government feels the same way.  I doubt you’ll see Trump bring up the issue at his next rally.

Random Musings

--Presidential job approval:

Gallup tracking poll [4/12]: 40% approve of President Trump’s job performance, 54% disapprove.

Rasmussen [4/13]: 48% approve of Trump’s performance, 52% disapprove.

CBS news [4/10]: 43% approve. 49% disapprove.

--Republicans won the first congressional election of the Trump era Tuesday night, retaining a Kansas House seat that was open because of Mike Pompeo’s selection to become director of the CIA.

Republican Ron Estes defeated Democrat James Thompson 52% to 46%, a much-closer result than expected and a worrisome sign for the elephants.  Trump won the district by 27 points.

--Conservative leaders are putting President Trump on notice: If he doesn’t stick to his campaign promises, there will be a price to pay in the midterm election. 

--John Podhoretz / New York Post...a continuation of his op-ed on communication skills.

“And speaking of communicating, how about the man who is supposed to be the foremost explicator in America? That would be White House press secretary Sean Spicer, whose daily briefings are watched by millions – which makes him the most visible member of the Trump administration.

“For one thing, Spicer almost literally cannot speak a grammatical English sentence, and the very fact he got the job despite this obvious liability is an implicit mark of national decline.  But whatever violence he has done to our language was outdone on Tuesday by the disgustingly potted history lesson he attempted for some reason to deliver to a horrified nation.

“In making a moral case against Syria’s Bashar al-Assad and his use of chemical weapons, Spicer found himself helpless before his own tongue as he suggested Adolf Hitler hadn’t gassed his own people.  (Hundreds of thousands of German Jews were killed by Zyklon B.)  Then, in the course of trying to figure out how the hell to get out of the Dark Forest of execrable taste in which he had lost himself, he referred to the very places in which Hitler did just that as ‘Holocaust centers.’

“The morning after this disquisition, Spicer apologized profusely in a public forum – but even as he did so, his body language and tone suggested he was bitter that he had been held to account.

“What was missing from the behavior of both (United’s Munoz and Spicer) and from the conduct of our institutions in general is elementary dignity – the dignity that arises from the responsibility such people ought to feel as they fill roles of great power and influence in our society. Given how cheaply they have mortgaged their own social capital in pursuit of authority and fame and financial comfort, it’s no wonder nobody at the top of the greasy pole seems to know how to play this American game any longer.”

Haaretz / Editorial

“White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer’s unfortunate remarks, according to which Hitler never used chemical weapons nor used gas against his own people during the Holocaust, are not only testimony to his personal ignorance.  You don’t need to be an accredited historian to know that Hitler killed millions of people with gas starting in 1939, and that the victims  included citizens of his country, both Jewish and non-Jewish.

“Spicer’s remarks, which border on Holocaust denial, are extremely dangerous, because they are liable to strengthen radical actors around the world.  Extremists are the ones who benefit from distortions of history, and especially distortions related to the fate of the Jewish people.

“No less outrageous, however, were the lame responses and even nonresponses from the Israeli government and the man who heads it, to these and similar statements from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s ideological partners in the United States and in Europe.

“These comments by the man who is supposed to be Donald Trump’s mouthpiece should be viewed as part of a worrying trend shared by other right-wing parties and governments worldwide, which seem to have made Holocaust denial one of their trademarks.  Just this week, Marine Le Pen, the leader of France’s National Front party, said that France ‘isn’t responsible’ for the roundup of 13,000 Jews in the summer of 1942, held in the Velodrome d’Hiver indoor stadium in Paris before being deported to Auschwitz.  Yet these actions were organized by the French authorities, and thousands of French policemen participated in them.

“Similar things have been said in recent months in Poland....

“What’s the right’s distortions of history in the United States, France and Poland have in common is that they all constitute a major regression from both historical research and the existing culture of memory in these countries.”

I went to Treblinka in Poland in 1999.  Hired out a driver to take me there from Warsaw.  Treblinka is not like Auschwitz...there are no visible buildings left.  It was an extermination camp.  At least 700,000 died in its gas chambers.  But then it was dismantled.

I have written of my experience there a few times.  I’ll never forget the faces of the old women in the doorways of the village along the road going in.  Pissed off I was there.  [My driver and I were the only ones that day.]  These same women saw it all back in 1942-43, and did nothing as the rail cars went in full, and came out empty.  [The road into what is now a memorial is on the old rail tracks...the memorial since expanded long after I was there...]

Sean Spicer should have resigned this week.

--Then there is Steve Bannon.  President Trump, when commenting on the rumored infighting between Bannon and Jared Kushner: “I like Steve, but you have to remember he was not involved in my campaign until very late.  I had already beaten all the senators and all the governors, and I didn’t know Steve. I’m my own strategist and it wasn’t like I was going to change strategies because I was facing crooked Hillary....

“Steve is a good guy, but I told them to straighten it out or I will.”

--The Washington Post reported: “The FBI and the Justice Department obtained (a) warrant targeting Carter Page’s communications after convincing a Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court judge that there was probable cause to believe Page was acting as an agent of a foreign power, in this case Russia, according to officials.

“This is the clearest evidence so far that the FBI had reason to believe during the 2016 presidential campaign that a Trump campaign adviser was in touch with Russian agents.”

Mr. Page then gave an interview with CNN’s Jake Tapper and talk about pathetic; Page was terrible in his own defense.

--Republican Gov. Robert Bentley resigned Monday, hours after pleading guilty to two misdemeanor crimes.  Bentley’s wife had filed for divorce after she found incriminating text messages and recorded phone conversations between Bentley and his top political advisor.

This is a bad guy.

--Julian Assange had an op-ed in the Washington Post that I almost refused to read, and whaddya know, days later, CIA Director Mike Pompeo labeled Assange an agent of Russia.

But I can’t help but note this one quote of Assange’s: “I have given up years of my own liberty for the risks we have taken at WikiLeaks to bring truth to the public.”

No, Mr. Assange.  You gave up years of your own liberty because you were afraid of being extradited to face charges for a sex crime and instead you opted to hide out in the Ecuadorean Embassy in London. 

Pompeo on Thursday called Assange a “narcissist” and a “coward” who makes “common cause with dictators.”  The director also called WikiLeaks “a non-state hostile intelligence service, often abetted by state actors like Russia.”

This is a massive break from Pompeo’s boss, who in 2016, praised WikiLeaks for publishing emails from the Democratic National Committee and the Clinton Foundation.  “I love WikiLeaks,” Trump said.  “It’s amazing how nothing is secret today when you talk about the Internet.”

Trump associate Roger Stone has been accused of collaborating with WikiLeaks after boasting of his contact with Assange.

--Donald Trump, in an interview with the New York Post’s Michael Goodwin, on commentators:

“Pundits, they know less than my 11-year-old son,” he said.  “They have zero political instinct and zero political talent.”

Ah, I don’t think so, Mr. President....all due respect to Barron, of course.

--Retired Army Gen. Barry McCaffrey / Army Times

“World War I transformed America’s army from a 19th-century skeleton force barely capable of responding to a deadly border raid by Mexican revolutionaries into a potent modern expeditionary power with millions under arms and the resources, skills and battlefield courage to shock the enemy into submission.

“The transformation would not come easily, but when it did, it would reinvent the U.S. Army in such a profound manner that its legacy continues to this day, woven into the very fabric of its fatigues....

“The arrival of the U.S. army was captured in the memoirs of Winston Churchill, who wrote of the ‘seemingly inexhaustible flood of gleaming youth’ that ‘clattered along the roads, singing the songs of a new world at the tops of their voices, burning to reach the bloody field. ...Half trained, half organized, with only their courage, their numbers and their magnificent youth behind their weapons, they were to buy their experience at a bitter price. But this they were quite ready to do.’

“The 1918 armistice led to a dramatic drawdown in the U.S. Army, but its core structure, the institutional memory; the reinvention of its culture; its appreciation of modern warfare; the challenges of logistics, supply and training; and the battlefield education of future generals came about as a result of World War I. It would not only change the world and the Army, but it would create the American century that was to follow.”

Gen. McCaffrey then makes a plea to support the creation of a National World War I Memorial in Washington, D.C., “to honor those who served during that war, a tribute that is long overdue.”

www.worldwarIcentennial.org

I watched the PBS “American Experience” series on World War I this week.  Outstanding.

---

Pray for the men and women of our armed forces...and all the fallen.

Pray for Egypt’s Coptic Christians.

God bless America.

---

Gold $1290
Oil $52.91

Returns for the week 4/10-4/14

Dow Jones  -1.0%  [20453]
S&P 500  -1.1%  [2328]
S&P MidCap  -1.5%
Russell 2000  -1.4%
Nasdaq  -1.2%  [5805]

Returns for the period 1/1/17-4/14/17

Dow Jones  +3.5%
S&P 500  +4.0%
S&P MidCap  +1.2%
Russell 2000  -0.9%
Nasdaq  +7.8%

Bulls 56.3
Bears 17.5 [Source: Investors Intelligence]

Happy Easter and Passover!

Brian Trumbore