Week in Review

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Week in Review

11/02/2019

For the week 10/28-11/1

[Posted 11:00 PM ET, Friday]

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Edition 1,072

Trump World...Taking Out Baghdadi....

President Donald Trump, Oct. 27, 2019

“Last night, the United States brought the world’s number one terrorist to justice.  Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is dead. He was the founder and leader of ISIS, the most ruthless and violent terror organization in the world. The United States has been searching for Baghdadi for many years. Capturing or killing Baghdadi has been the top national security priority of my Administration.  U.S. Special Operations forces executed a dangerous and daring nighttime raid into Northwestern Syria to accomplish this mission.

“No U.S. personnel were lost in the operation, while a large number of Baghdadi’s fighters and companions were killed with him.  He died after running into a dead-end tunnel, whimpering and crying and screaming.  The compound had been cleared by this time, with people either surrendering or being shot and killed. Eleven young children were moved out of the house un-injured.  The only ones remaining were Baghdadi in the tunnel, who had dragged three children with him to certain death.  He reached the end of the tunnel, as our dogs chased him down.  He ignited his vest, killing himself and the three children. His body was mutilated by the blast, but test results gave certain and positive identification.”

The president would go on and on for nearly an hour, the formal statement turning into a press conference.  He dissed the Kurds, who clearly helped tremendously with an informant who had befriended Baghdadi, and praised Russia for its help.  He thanked “the great intelligence professionals who helped make this very successful journey possible,” but he couldn’t get himself to say “CIA.”

Trump lied about a book he wrote before 9/11, “a really, very successful book.  And in that book, about a year before the World Trade Center was blown up, I said, ‘There is somebody named Osama in Laden.  You better kill him or take him out.’ Something to that effect.  ‘He’s big trouble.’”

It was a lie.  And yet he went on for a couple of minutes about the book.

“And to this day, I get people coming up to me, and they said, ‘You know what one of the most amazing things I’ve ever seen about you?  It’s that you predicted that Osama bin Laden had to be killed before he knocked down the World Trade Center.’  It’s true.  Now, most of the press doesn’t want to write that, but you know – but it is true.  If you go back, look at my book... I made a prediction, and I – let’s put it this way: If they would have listened to me, a lot of things would have been different.”  [whitehouse.gov]

This is sick.  In his 2000 book, “The America We Deserve,” Trump makes a passing mention of bin Laden but did no more than point to him as one of many threats to U.S. security.  Nor does he say in the book that bin Laden should have been killed. 

From the Associated Press: “As part of his criticism of what he considered Bill Clinton’s haphazard approach to U.S. security as president, Trump wrote: ‘One day we’re told that a shadowy figure with no fixed address named Osama bin Laden is public enemy Number One, and U.S. jetfighters lay waste to his camp in Afghanistan. He escapes under some rock, and a few news cycles later it’s on to a new enemy and new crisis.”

The book did not call for further U.S. action against bin Laden or al-Qaeda to follow up on attacks Clinton ordered in 1998 in Afghanistan and Sudan after al-Qaeda bombed the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania.

The president also gave up too many operational details in his rambling presser, including his description of when the helicopters carrying the commandos took off after completing the mission, they “took an identical route” back to friendly territory. 

And as to the claim Baghdadi was whimpering and crying (which he doubled down on tonight at a Mississippi rally), Centcom Commander Gen. Kenneth McKenzie Jr. said in a Pentagon briefing later in the week, “It’s possible he attempted to fire back.”

I know that most Americans don’t care about such details, let alone 99% of President Trump’s base, but the truth matters...a lot.

Trump can take credit for a great achievement, and the next day our Special Forces took out No. 2, but then Trump blows up the story. 

And we also have to go back to the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria that allowed Turkey to move in and displace hundreds of thousands of Kurds, with nowhere to go.  Those folks aren’t sleeping in Holiday Inn Express hotels tonight.  They’re cold, wet, sick, and wondering if they’ll make it through the coming winter. They wonder where missing loved ones are.

Today, the U.S. has ceded its influence and power in Syria to Russia, Turkey, Iran and Bashar Assad.  Tonight, I pray for the Kurds.

Opinion....

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“The death on the weekend of Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi at the hands of American special forces won’t end the danger from radical Islam.  But it is an important victory for America’s antiterror strategy with lessons for the future.

“ ‘He was a sick and depraved man, and now he’s gone,’ President Trump said at the White House Sunday morning.  Mr. Trump said U.S. forces had monitored Baghdadi for ‘a couple of weeks’ and planned the nighttime raid that chased the terrorist into a tunnel near Idlib in northwestern Syria, where the jihadist detonated a suicide vest.

“No Americans were killed in what Mr. Trump called a ‘dangerous and daring’ operation.  He deserves credit for approving a raid that inevitably carries risks of failure and casualties. The death of Baghdadi is important as a matter of simple justice given his murderous history.  And it informs other jihadists that they can achieve no victory and are likewise doomed to die in a tunnel or bomb blast.

“The raid also shows the importance of intelligence gathered from prisoners.  Iraqi officials say their interrogation of captured ISIS fighters in recent months provided news about Baghdadi’s location. The American left has tried to discredit interrogation since the Iraq war, but it remains crucial to preventing future attacks and killing terror leaders.

“Another lesson is the importance of a presence on the ground by American troops and allies.  Mazloum Abdi, chief of the Syrian Democratic Forces allied with the U.S., tweeted that ‘for five months there has been joint intel cooperation on the ground.’

“U.S. forces in Syria and Iraq were able to coordinate with allies who know the area and plot raids rather than use standoff weapons.  This allowed U.S. soldiers to collect files as they did during the raid on Osama bin Laden.  Such raids would be far more difficult without forward-deployed troops who can take the fight to the terrorists on their turf rather than allowing sanctuaries to plan attacks on the U.S. as bin Laden did in the 1990s.

“Maintaining this regional pressure is crucial because we know jihadist forces can reorganize under new leadership. That’s what Baghdadi did after President Obama ordered all U.S. forces out of Iraq in 2011.  He founded an Islamic ‘caliphate’ across Syrian and western Iraq, terrorizing minorities and other Muslims, beheading Americans and Arab Christians on camera, and inspiring terror attacks on the West....

“Mr. Trump has been sending mixed signals since his impulsive decision to cede northern Syria to Turkey after a phone call with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. President Trump now says he wants to keep enough U.S. forces on the ground to control the local oil fields, and word has leaked that the Pentagon may send tanks as part of the job.  This suggests withdrawal isn’t as ‘simple’ as Mr. Trump likes to say when he’s playing to isolationists.

“Beyond the oil, the Baghdadi raid underscores the anti-terrorist purpose of maintaining a U.S. military presence.  The U.S. homeland hasn’t suffered a successful jihadist attack, foreign-planned or –inspired, in some time. This isn’t an accident.  It’s the result of persistent security and intelligence work that coordinates with allies to pursue jihadists wherever they are around the world.

“In his better moments, Mr. Trump seems to understand this. As he basks in the success of the Idlib raid, he should rethink his retreat from Syria in a still dangerous world.”

David E. Sanger / New York Times

“The death of the Islamic State’s leader in a daring nighttime raid vindicated the value of three traditional American strengths: robust alliances, faith in intelligence agencies and the projection of military power around the world.

“But President Trump has regularly derided the first two.  And even as he claimed a significant national security victory on Sunday, the outcome of the raid did little to quell doubts about the wisdom of his push to reduce the United States military presence in Syria at a time when terrorist threats continue to develop in the region.

“Mr. Trump has long viewed the United States intelligence agencies with suspicion and appears to see its employees as members of the ‘deep state.’  He also has a distinctly skeptical view of alliances – in this case, close cooperation with the Kurds, whom he has effectively abandoned.

“ ‘The irony of the successful operation against al-Baghdadi is that it could not have happened without U.S. forces on the ground that have been pulled out, help from Syrian Kurds who have been betrayed, and support of a U.S. intelligence community that has so often been disparaged,’ Richard N. Haass, the president of the Council on Foreign Relations, said on Sunday.

“ ‘While the raid was obviously a welcome success, the conditions that made the operation possible may not exist in the future,’ he said.

“To Mr. Trump, the death of the Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was proof of the wisdom of his strategy of defending America at home without committing United States forces to ‘endless wars’ abroad.

“To the president and his supporters, the arguments from critics amount to sour grapes, an effort by an impeachment-crazed opposition to play down the success of a focused, successful clandestine operation that echoed the killing of Osama bin Laden.

“That, of course, was the 2011 moment that Democrats celebrated as proof that a progressive president with little national security experience could take out the world’s most wanted terrorist.  And while it had faded a bit in memory by the time President Barack Obama was up for re-election the following year, it was a talking point for his campaign.

“Mr. Trump seemed to be laying the predicate for his own campaign talking points on Sunday, when he recounted telling his own forces that ‘I want al-Baghdadi,’ rather than a string of deceased terrorist leaders who were ‘names I never heard of.’  And clearly he is hoping that the success of the raid has a wider resonance: He sees the al-Baghdadi raid, some former Trump aides said, as a counterweight to the impeachment inquiry, which is based in part on an argument that he has shaped foreign policy for his political benefit....

“Mr. Trump’s approach to the region has never been consistent, but he has struck consistent themes.  The first is that the United States does not need to keep forces in the region to reach out and kill its enemies. The high price of occupation, rebuilding and vacuum-filling, he suggests, can be paid by allies, or by Russians, Turks and even the Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad.

“ ‘That’s why I say they should start doing a lot of the fighting now, and they’ll be able to,’ Mr. Trump told reporters on Sunday....

“All the terrorists need to know, he said, is that the United States will hunt them down, if necessary, even from afar.

“But the story of Mr. al-Baghdadi’s demise is more complex. He was living in territory that was essentially ungoverned space, dominated by two different Qaeda groups – Mr. al-Baghdadi’s rivals – and now an emerging territory for ISIS fighters on the run.  The Syrians and the Russians control the airspace.

“It is exactly the kind of area that American military and intelligence leaders – and the Republican leadership in Congress – have urged Mr. Trump to keep an eye on by keeping a small force in the country.

“David H. Petraeus, the former general and CIA director, often says that ungoverned space inevitably becomes extremist space.  ‘Las Vegas rules do not obtain in these locations,’ he said this year.  ‘What happens there doesn’t stay there.’

“Mr. Trump does not subscribe to that theory.  In his view, American surveillance can keep track of the terrorists from above, while the National Security Agency can bore into their networks.

“To Mr. Trump, a United States military presence on the ground becomes an excuse for others not to act; it does not bother him, he says, that Russia now occupies an area that was essentially an American protectorate before.

“ ‘I’ll tell you who loves us being there: Russia and China,’ he said.  ‘Because while they build their military, we’re depleting our military there.’....

“Mr. Trump said he would not ask American taxpayers to ‘pay for the next 50 years’ of containing mayhem.  But in recent days he has indicated he is willing to keep troops around Syria’s oil fields, a consistent exception to the Trump no-troops rule. When the Iraq invasion happened, he noted Sunday, he argued for America to ‘keep the oil.’

“Now he is making a similar case about the oil in Syria.  Oil money fueled ISIS, he notes, and more recently it helps feed the Kurds – not mentioning that their access to it is being jeopardized by his sudden decision three weeks ago to abandon the American posts along the Turkey-Syria border.

“But in recent days his defense secretary, Mark T. Esper, has indicated Mr. Trump was willing to commit forces to secure the fields, and the president went further on Sunday, saying he intends to ‘make a deal with an Exxon-Mobil or one of our great companies to go in’ and exploit the field properly.

“ ‘We should be able to take some also,’ he said.

“The risk, of course, is that America looks like a force of exploitation, willing to enter hostile foreign lands for two reasons only: killing terrorists and extracting resources.  The mission of the American Century – helping other nations to develop their economies and build democratic institutions – is missing from the strategy.”

Brett McGurk / Washington Post

“The killing of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is great news for the civilized world. The raid deep into northwestern Syria speaks once again to the incredible professionalism of the U.S. Special Forces and the intelligence analysts who help target their operations. The details of this operation speak as well to larger truths about Syria – and to what we have forfeited with the sudden U.S. retreat across its northeast this month.

“Baghdadi is not an easily replaceable leader.  He claimed unique religious credentials as a Muslim caliph, and his declaration of an Islamic State ‘caliphate’ galvanized tens of thousands of foreign fighters to flood into Syria.  His successor will keep the Islamic State alive in Iraq and Syria – the group maintains more than 10,000 fighters there – but after five years of sustained pressure it’s a weakened organization with no remaining territorial hold....

“Turkey also has some explaining to do.  Baghdadi was found not in his traditional areas of eastern Syria or western Iraq, but rather in northwestern Syria – just a few miles from Turkey’s border, and in Idlib province, which has been protected by a dozen Turkish military outposts since early 2018.  It is telling that the U.S. military reportedly chose to launch this operation from hundreds of miles away in Iraq, as opposed to facilities in Turkey, a NATO ally, just across the border.  The United States also reportedly did not notify Turkey of the raid except when our forces came close to its borders, the same notification we would have provided to adversaries such as Russia and Syria....

“Baghdadi’s death at the end of a dark tunnel may diminish the global appeal of the Islamic State brand. The United States can work with its partners around the world to reinforce this success with law-enforcement raids against Islamic State cells in other countries.  On the ground in Syria, however – where the Islamic State is plotting its future – it is now more difficult to consolidate this achievement.  U.S. forces have already abandoned populated areas, and the SDF has been forced to turn to Russia as its new partner in cities where only one month ago the United States enjoyed local support, access and intelligence.

“Trump deserves full credit for approving the operation that led to Baghdadi’s demise.  It’s a shame the information that led to the raid apparently did not come to him before the tragic decision to abruptly pull U.S. Special Forces from much of northeastern Syria.  Because everything we already know about the raid reinforces just how valuable, unique and hard-fought the small and sustainable American presence there had been.”

Michael Morell / Washington Post

“Contrary to some commentaries on the death of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the elimination of the leader of the Islamic State was more than a symbolic victory.

“The Islamic State’s loss of its caliphate in the Middle East this year was a blow to the group, but it was not defeated.  And in recent months, it had already begun mounting a comeback, with 10,000 to 15,000 fighters coalescing in parts of Iraq and Syria, particularly along the Iraq-Syria border.

“Baghdadi was not only the strategist behind the Islamic State resurgence, he was also the inspiration for thousands of radicalized terrorists across the globe who have committed themselves to his violent, apocalyptic vision.  His removal from the battlefield, thanks to U.S. intelligence officers and Special Operations forces, is a significant counterterrorism victory.

“The loss of a leader is a heavy setback for any terrorist organization: Successors will take time to learn and master new roles, while possibly contending with internal power struggles, and they and their closest followers worry they could be the next ones targeted.

“History shows that this last element may be the most important.  Concern about their own security shifts terrorist leaders’ focus from running the groups and from planning operations to protecting themselves. Security concerns also make communications and movements more dangerous and the workarounds less effective....

“The president should be lauded not only for taking decisive actions but also for choosing the course of action that he did. The easy option would have been to launch a massive airstrike, a decision that would have come with far fewer risks to U.S. service members. But Trump’s choice of a precision helicopter raid had far more upside: It gave the United States certainty that Baghdadi was there and was killed. It no doubt allowed us to seize a significant amount of intelligence that will further the degradation of Islamic State.  And it allowed us to limit civilian casualties....

“The Syrian Kurds also deserve praise. The president noted in his news conference Sunday that the Kurds ‘gave us some information’ – presumably part of the intelligence picture. That is just the Kurds’ latest contribution to the years-long battle against the Islamic State, much of it waged by the Kurds themselves.

“Given how the administration has treated the Kurds in recent weeks, permitting Turkey’s assault on them in northeastern Syria, Americans should speak up louder than ever on the Kurds’ behalf.  The fight against the Islamic State is far from over, and we should not have abandoned the very people whom we need to continue that fight in Syria.

“The president’s news conference, unfortunately, at moments sounded like a locker room celebration.  Great countries do not brag, they demonstrate humility.  Moreover, the president’s eagerness to describe the raid in detail – particularly the collection of Baghdadi’s body parts – will give back some of what the raid achieved.  In much of the Muslim world, dead bodies, even those of enemies, deserve respect....

“And by spending so much of his news conference talking about Syrian oil, the president perpetuated a long-standing conspiracy theory that oil is the only thing we care about in the Middle East, and that our overriding objective is to take it for ourselves. That kind of talk helps America’s enemies.

“Such unforced errors have typified this presidency’s dealing with the Islamic State, providing the group with the raw material for propaganda to recruit more foot soldiers.  Trump has given the Islamic State numerous gifts, including banning Muslim visitors from certain countries and treating those who practice Islam as enemies of the United States.  The Islamic State would be worse off if the president hadn’t done this.

“The fight against extremism in general, and against the Islamic State in particular, is not over. The Baghdadi operation was a great success, but all aspects of U.S. policy, including our leaders’ public comments, need to be aligned to keep the country safe.”

Trump and the Impeachment Inquiry

--The week started with a national security official, Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman, testifying before House lawmakers in the impeachment probe that key words and phrases were omitted from the transcript of the controversial July phone call between President Trump and Ukraine’s leader.

Vindman, the top Ukraine expert on the National Security Council, also told lawmakers that his bid to completely restore the omissions failed, according to the New York Times.

Then the House of Representatives voted 232-196 almost entirely along party lines on Thursday to approve a road map for impeaching President Trump over his efforts to pressure Ukraine into launching investigations of his Democratic rivals.

Just two Democrats voted against the measure (one of whom, Jeff Van Drew, has a district encompassing southern New Jersey, so I’ll be following his race closely next year).  No Republicans voted in favor.

Speaker Pelosi said: “It’s about the truth, it’s about the Constitution. What is at stake? It’s about democracy.  What are we fighting for?  Defending our democracy for the people.”

Republican Rep. Steve Scalise trashed the impeachment effort as a “Soviet-style show trial” of Trump, an incredibly stupid statement. 

But as the Wall Street Journal points out:

“The resolution makes a pretense of honoring minority rights by saying the GOP can seek to subpoena witnesses.  But the request is subject to ‘the concurrence of the chair’ of the Intelligence or Judiciary Committees.  This Democratic veto power means that you should not expect Hunter Biden to make an appearance. The Nixon and Clinton resolutions gave the majority and minority equal power to subpoena witnesses.

“Democrats and the impeachment press dismiss these objections as obfuscation over mere ‘process.’  But the U.S. Constitution is dedicated to process because rules are crucial to democratic accountability.  Article I doesn’t define rules for impeachment, but on a matter as grave as ousting a President the public deserves to know that the process is fair and transparent.  Any process run by the hyper-partisan Mr. Schiff and under the terms of Thursday’s House resolution is likely to be neither....

“Democrats want to impeach Mr. Trump for asking a foreign government to investigate his political rival for corruption, though the prove never happened, and for withholding aid to Ukraine that in the end wasn’t withheld. Assuming the facts bear this out, the attempt was self-serving and reckless and a long way from the ‘perfect’ behavior Mr. Trump claims.

“But Democrats will need more than the facts on the public record so far to justify short-circuiting a Presidency. Their partisan rush to impeachment suggests that their real purpose is revenge for the humiliation for having lost in 2016 to a man they think is unworthy of the office.  The impeachers have the burden of showing why this shouldn’t all be left to the judgment of American voters in 2020.”

What seems pretty clear is the rules and process from here on will take us well into 2020. Who that benefits and disadvantages I’m not sure yet.  It’s too easy to say it benefits the Republicans because we should have learned by now, just ‘wait 24 hours.’

I also can’t help but note the comments of Rep. Justin Amash (I, Mich., formerly Republican), who tweeted before the House vote:

“We swear an oath to support and defend the Constitution, not an oath to support and defend Donald Trump’s abuse of the office of the presidency.

“This president will be in power for only a short time, but excusing his misbehavior will forever tarnish your name.  To my Republican colleagues: Step outside your media and social bubble. History will not look kindly on disingenuous, frivolous, and false defenses of this man.”

Earlier in the week, allies of President Trump attacked the aforementioned Alexander Vindman, who also testified that he twice raised concerns that Trump and his European Union ambassador (and major donor), Gordon Sondland, inappropriately pushed Ukrainian leaders to investigate former Vice President Biden and son Hunter.

“I sit here, as a lieutenant colonel in the United States Army, an immigrant,” Vindman told House investigators in written testimony.  “I have a deep appreciation for American values and ideals and the power of freedom.  I am a patriot, and it is my sacred duty and honor to advance and defend our country, irrespective of party or politics.”

Vindman was a specialist in the White House on Ukraine and Russia; a Jewish immigrant who fled the Soviet Union in 1979, having been born in Ukraine, who became a decorated soldier in the U.S. Army and White House adviser, a man who received a Purple Heart for his duty in Iraq, where he was wounded.

So that night, Fox News host Laura Ingraham and former U.S. Deputy Attorney General John Yoo used Vindman’s heritage to question his loyalty ahead of his testimony.

Ingraham argued: “Here we have a U.S. national security official who is advising Ukraine, while working inside the White House, apparently against the president’s interest, and usually, they spoke in English.  Isn’t that kind of an interesting angle on this story?”

Yoo replied that it was “astounding,” adding: “You know, some people might call that espionage.”

The next day, House Republican Conference Chair Liz Cheney defended Vindman saying, “I also want to say a word about something else that’s been going on over the course of the last several hours and last night, which I think is also shameful, and that is questioning the patriotism, questioning the dedication to country of people like Mr. Vindman.”

When asked about the issue, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said, “I’m not going to question the patriotism of any of the people who are coming forward.”

But then you had former Republican congressman and MTV reality TV star Sean Duffy, now a CNN contributor, making the following argument on the network, saying, “It seems very clear that (Vindman) is incredibly concerned about Ukrainian defense. I don’t know that he’s concerned about American policy. ...We all have an affinity to our homeland where we came from...he has an affinity for the Ukraine.”

Congressman Duffy, I’m glad you have a large family (nine children, the only thing that seemed to distinguish him while in the House, other than being a Trump supporter), but this statement is beyond disgraceful.  I’d love to have taken you to my uncle’s place in Prague back in 1973, when I visited him with Mom and Dad, where five (including a baby) lived in an apartment the size of a living room, with a bathtub in the middle of the kitchen.  That’s why the likes of the Vindman family left the Soviet Union when given the chance to seek a better life in America.

Separately, Timothy Morrison, a senior National Security Council aide, on Thursday confirmed a key episode at the center of the impeachment inquiry, testifying that Gordon Sondland, the ambassador to the European Union, told him that a package of military assistance for Ukraine would not be released until the country committed to investigations the president sought. 

Morrison also said he had been told of a September call between Trump and Sondland wherein the president said he was not looking for a quid pro quo with Ukraine, but then went on to “insist” that the country’s president publicly announced investigations into Joe Biden and his son and other Democrats.  Previously, William Taylor, the top American diplomat in Ukraine, spoke of his alarm about the conversations during his private testimony, saying he had been briefed about them by Morrison.

But Morrison didn’t make the direct damaging judgments other witnesses have.

As for the man who would be the single key figure in an impeachment inquiry, former National Security Adviser John Bolton was summoned to testify, but it seems likely he will take any further attempt to subpoena him to court, and that process would take months.

Rich Lowry / New York Post...for the defense....

“Republicans have had trouble mounting an effective defense on President Trump’s Ukraine call, because they haven’t put down their stakes on the most defensible ground.

“Complaints about House Democrats’ less-than-transparent impeachment process, though justified, were clearly perishable once Democrats adopted more regular proceedings.

“The contention that Trump’s phone call to the Ukrainian president was ‘perfect’ was never going to withstand scrutiny. The line that there was ‘no quid pro quo’ has become steadily less plausible as more testimony has emerged suggesting that Trump withheld security aid to Ukraine in the hopes that the Kiev government would announce an investigation into the 2016 election and the gas company Burisma and/or Joe and Hunter Biden.

“The best defense Republicans can muster is that nothing came of it.  An ally was discomfited and yanked around for a couple of months before, ultimately, getting its military aid....

“(But) the offense here shouldn’t be exaggerated.  It’s not as though Trump was asking the Ukrainians to frame  anyone, or give him bags of cash, or buy advertisements in swing states. The sought-after announcement of an investigation into Burisma, a company with a demonstrably shady past, wouldn’t have constituted an investigation into Joe Biden, or even an investigation into Hunter.

“Trump surely would have used such an announcement to argue that Hunter Biden is corrupt, but you might have noticed that Trump is arguing that Hunter Biden is corrupt, regardless.

“Special envoy to Ukraine Kurt Volker has said he had a relatively relaxed attitude toward the hold on the funding.  ‘I believed the decision would ultimately be reversed,’ he said in his opening statement.  ‘Everything from the force of law to the unanimous position of the House, Senate, Pentagon, State Department, and [National Security Council] staff argued for going forward, and I knew it would just be a matter of time.’

“He was right.  You might say it never should have gotten to that point.  What you can’t say is that the money was ultimately kept from the Ukrainians – or that they opened an investigation of the Bidens.”

Peggy Noonan / Wall Street Journal

“The president’s defenders have argued that in the transcripts of the phone call the White House released, he never clearly lays out a quid pro quo. I suppose it depends how you read it, but in a book I wrote long ago I noted that in government and journalism people don’t say ‘Do it my way or I’ll blow you up.’ Their language and approach are more rounded. They imitate 1930s gangster movies in which the suave mobster tells the saloon keeper from whom he’s demanding protection money, ‘Nice place you have here, shame if anything happened to it.’

“In the past I’ve said the leaders of the inquiry will have to satisfy the American people that they’re trying to be fair, and not just partisan fools. So far that score is mixed. Republicans charge with some justice that it’s been secretive, the process loaded and marked by partisan creepiness.  If I were Adam Schiff now I wouldn’t be fair, I’d be generous – providing all materials, information, dully inviting the Republicans in. That would be a deadly move – to show respect and rob Republicans of a talking point.

“It should be communicated to the president’s supporters that they must at some point ask themselves this question: Is it acceptable that an American president muscle an ally in this way for personal political gain?  If that is OK then it’s OK in the future when there’s a Democratic president, right?  Would your esteem for Franklin D. Roosevelt be lessened if it came to light through old telephone transcripts found in a box in a basement in Georgetown that he told Winston Churchill in 1940, ‘We’ll lend you the ships and the aid if you announce your government is investigating that ruffian Wendell Wilkie’?  You’d still respect him and tell the heroic old stories, right?”

But as Ms. Noonan also writes, it really all comes down to John Bolton and whether he testifies.

A new USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll found Americans are split on whether Trump should be convicted by the Senate in an impeachment trial and removed from office: 46% in favor, 47% against.

But 30% to 40% remain solidly on Trump’s side, a big asset.

A new Washington Post/ABC News survey found that 49% of Americans say Trump should be impeached and removed from office, while 47% say he should not...essentially the same conclusion as the USA TODAY/Suffolk poll.

Importantly in the Post/ABC survey, among independents, 47% favor removal and 49% are opposed.

--In his confirmation hearing Wednesday to become U.S. ambassador to Russia, Deputy Secretary of State John Sullivan told senators he was aware of a “campaign” by Rudy Giulani to oust the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, Marie Yovanovitch.

“I was aware that Mr. Giuliani was involved in Ukraine issues,” he said.  “My knowledge...was focused on his campaign basically against our ambassador to Ukraine.”

Giuliani has said he worked to get Yovanovitch removed and that his efforts were coordinated with the State Department. Yovanovitch, in her publicly released statement, said Sullivan told her he knew of no reason to believe she had done anything to merit her removal.  Trump removed her after hearing concerns relayed by Giuliani and others that she was obstructing efforts to push for a Ukrainian investigation into Biden and son Hunter.

In his confirmation hearing, Sullivan was asked by Sen. Marco Rubio (R., Fla.) how he would respond to pressure to put political interests ahead of those of the U.S.

“Soliciting investigations into a domestic political opponent, I don’t think that would be in accord with our values,” he told the panel.

--Trump tweets, announcing his departure from the Big Apple for Florida:

“I love New York, but New York can never be great again under the current leadership of Governor Andrew Cuomo (the brother of Fredo), or Mayor Bill DeBlasio, Cuomo has weaponized the prosecutors to do his dirty work (and to keep him out of jams), a reason some don’t want to be....

“....in New York, and another reason they are leaving. Taxes and energy costs are way too high, Upstate is being allowed to die as other nearby states frack & drill for Gold (oil) while reducing taxes & creating jobs by the thousands.  NYC is getting dirty & unsafe again, as....

“....our great police are being disrespected, even with water dumped on them, because a Mayor and Governor just don’t ‘have their back.’  New York’s Finest must be cherished, respected and loved.  Too many people are leaving our special New York.  Great leaders would work....

“...with a President and Federal Government that wants our wonderful City and State to flourish and thrive. I Love New York!”

Earlier:

“1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, the White House, is the place I have come to love and will stay for, hopefully, another 5 years as we MAKE AMERICAN GREAT AGAIN, but my family and I will be making Palm Beach, Florida, our Permanent Residence.  I cherish New York, and the people of....

“....New York, and always will, but unfortunately, despite the fact that I pay millions of dollars in city, state and local taxes each year, I have been treated very badly by the political leaders of both the city and state.  Few have been treated worse. I hated having to make....

“....this decision, but in the end it will be best for all concerned.  As President, I will always be there to help New York and the great people of New York.  It will always have a special place in my heart!”

Trump has lived in the 58-floor luxury apartment building on Fifth Avenue since 1983.

Gov. Andrew Cuomo said “Good riddance...It’s not like Mr. Trump paid taxes here anyway.  He’s all yours, Florida.”

--Former White House Chief of Staff John Kelly claims he warned President Trump about impeachment before he exited the White House.

“I said whatever you do, don’t hire a ‘yes man,’ someone who won’t tell you the truth – don’t do that.  Because if you do, I believe you will be impeached,” Kelly said Saturday during an interview at the Washington Examiner’s Sea Island Political Summit.

--Trump tweets:

“Congratulations to @FoxNews, you left @CNN & @MSNBC in the dust (that’s because they don’t tell the truth!).”

“The Impeachment Hoax is hurting our Stock Market.  The Do Nothing Democrats don’t care!”

“The Greatest Witch Hunt in American History!”

[OK, the president has typed this one only about 500 times...but this is a running archive of our times.]

“Why are people that I never even heard of testifying about the call.  Just READ THE CALL TRANSCRIPT AND THE IMPEACHMENT HOAX IS OVER! Ukraine said NO PRESSURE.”

“The Greatest Economy in American History!” [see below]

“Yesterday’s Never Trumper witness could find NO Quid Pro Quo in the Transcript of the phone call. There were many people listening to the call.  How come they (including the President of Ukraine) found NOTHING wrong with it. Witch Hunt!”

Wall Street and the Trade War

We had a slew of important economic data, topped by reports on jobs and GDP.

First, the S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller home price index for August was up just 2.0% for the 20-city index over the past year, a seven-year low and well below consensus.

September data on personal income and consumption was spot on in both cases, 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively, with the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator, the core (ex-food and energy) personal consumption expenditures index up 1.7% annualized. 

Then we had a scary reading for the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for October, just 43.2, a four-year low and the well below forecasts (50 being the dividing line between growth and contraction).  The market didn’t like this one.

But Friday, the national ISM manufacturing PMI came in at 48.3, below consensus, and the third straight month of contraction, but not an ugly surprise like the Chicago PMI.  Construction spending for September was also better than expected, 0.5%.

Also today, however, we had the October jobs report and it came in at 128,000 vs. a consensus reading of 93,000.  The number was going to be negatively impacted by the strike at General Motors, so this was a huge positive surprise, especially given that August’s and September’s numbers were revised sharply upward a combined 92,000, meaning the three-month average was up to 176,000, very solid.  [For the year, the monthly average is 167,000 vs. 223,00 for 2018.]

Average hourly earnings also ticked up to 3.0% from a worrisome 2.9% the month before, though wages in such an expansion should be climbing at a 3.5% clip or better.

The unemployment rate was 3.6%, the underemployment rate, U6, now 7.0%.

All in all, terrific.

But on Wednesday, we got our first look at third-quarter GDP and it was under 2.0%, 1.9%, which gives us the following look back.

Annualized percentage change....

Q3 2019... 1.9%
Q2 2019... 2.0%
Q1 2019... 3.1%
Q4 2018... 1.1%

So 2.0% for the past 12 months.

The prior five quarters, the first where you began to see the impact of President Trump’s tax-cutting, deregulation agenda, we had....

Q3 2018... 2.9%
Q2 2018... 3.5%
Q1 2018... 2.5%
Q4 2017... 3.5%
Q3 2017... 3.2%

Or, 3.1% on average.

So I don’t care how the White House spins it, we’ve slowed from a 3% economy to 2%.  2% is fine, witness the ongoing growth in the jobs market, but this is what we had in the much-criticized Obama years, 2011-2017.

Meanwhile, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow barometer that I like to quote is starting out the fourth quarter at just 1.1%.  Granted, there is virtually zero data for the period thus far and this can change markedly, as can the first look at Q3 2019 GDP for that matter, but the Atlanta Fed did a good job at looking at the last quarter with its final estimate at 1.8%, as I noted last week.

What has hurt the president foremost is the trade war.

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“The great counterfactual of the Trump Presidency is how much faster the economy would be growing without the damage of his trade protectionism.  Wednesday’s report of lackluster 1.9% growth in the third quarter shows again that you can’t escape Adam Smith’s revenge for indulging in bad economic policy for political goals.

“The economy continued to grow despite overwrought recession fears as consumer spending provided nearly all of the growth in GDP.  This is the second quarter in a row when the mighty consumer had to offset falling business investment to produce positive growth....

“The investment slump looks even more stark (when looking at) overall nonresidential investment by quarter. The last two have been negative after nearly two years of healthy gains that revived with the Trump Presidency and the recharging of business animal spirits.  Democratic economists argue that the Trump policy mix of tax reform and deregulation made no difference to investment and growth.

“But nonresidential private investment took a dive in 2015 and 2016 as the economy barely dodged a recession.  Investment accelerated as the new policy mix began along with a more pro-business political climate....

“GDP growth accelerated to 3% for a time along with investment, but then came Mr. Trump’s trade interventions.  More than the damage from tariffs, business confidence fell amid the uncertainty of what Mr. Trump might do next. This has led to slower growth that is reflected in roughly 2% GDP growth in the last two quarters. The economy is now down again to the slow Obama growth plane.

“President Trump and some in the White House blame the Federal Reserve and Europe for this slump, but neither explanation holds up. Europe hasn’t grown fast for decades and its 2017 growth bump was helped by faster U.S. growth. The Fed in our view made a mistake in raising rates a quarter point last December, but businesses did not starve for money even before the Fed began cutting rates again this summer.

“The strong evidence is that trade policy is the main growth culprit.  U.S. manufacturing has slumped, which is related to slowing exports.  Slower growth in China from the trade war has reduced the exports of U.S. farm, industrial and construction equipment. The third-quarter decline in spending for information processing equipment, much of which is exported, was the largest in seven years....

“In the National Association for Business Economics October survey, 53% cited trade policy as the key downside economic risk through 2020.”

So on Wednesday, the Fed lowered its key fed-funds rate for a third time this year in an attempt to counter the risks that have taken hold in the business community.

Chairman Jay Powell said in his news conference after the Fed’s move that lower rates are certainly helping with a stronger housing market, but as I note above in terms of prices, even this could be fleeting.

And then we have President Trump continuing to wail away at Powell and Co., tweeting:

“People are VERY disappointed in Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve.  The Fed has called it wrong from the beginning, too fast, too slow.  They even tightened in the beginning.  Others are running circles around them and laughing all the way to the bank.  Dollar & Rates are hurting...

“...our manufacturers. We should have lower interest rates than Germany, Japan and all others. We are now, by far, the biggest and strongest Country, but the Fed puts us at a competitive disadvantage.  China is not our problem, the Federal Reserve is!  We will win anyway.”

The Fed signaled it wouldn’t be reducing rates further when it meets for a last time this year in December.

“The current stance of [interest-rate] policy is likely to remain appropriate” as long as the economy expands moderately and the labor market stays strong, Powell said.  But he didn’t rule out further cuts if the economic outlook faltered. Certainly today’s solid jobs report shows the outlook is OK, at least for this week (and ignoring the Atlanta Fed’s early Q4 reading).

Turning to the Trade War...Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Wednesday that the United States and China were on track toward signing the first phase of a trade agreement in November, but the big plans for a public signing of said deal in Chile at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Santiago were squelched when Chile was forced to cancel it due to severe unrest in the country.

The fact is the two sides may not have been ready by the time of the summit anyway, as there have been conflicting statements on the progress, including from both sides today. 

What seems clear is this is going to be a ‘light’ deal, very minimal in scope, but a “Phase One” accord would at least ease tensions and probably provide further market stability, though it would do zero to address the core issues such as forced technology transfers and intellectual property protections.  And you still have key issues such as data restrictions, China’s cybersecurity regulations and industrial subsidies. With the 2020 election looming, there will be little incentive for China to negotiate further until after.

Trump tweet:

“China and the USA are working on selecting a new site for signing of Phase One of Trade Agreement, about 60% of total deal [Ed. that’s lie], after APEC in Chile was canceled due to unrelated circumstances. The new location will be announced soon.  President Xi and President Trump will do signing!”

Europe and Asia

The manufacturing PMIs for October began to trickle in today for the eurozone (EA19) but I’m going to wait until next time when I’ll have all the data rather than discuss it piecemeal.

We did get releases from Eurostat, though, on the following.

A preliminary flash estimate for third quarter GDP was up 0.2% in the EA19 over the second quarter, up 1.1% year-over-year.

September euro area unemployment came in at 7.5%, down from 8.0% a year ago and the lowest since July 2008.

Among the member states, Germany’s jobless rate is just 3.1%, France 8.4%, Italy 9.9%, Spain 14.2%, Netherlands 3.5% and Ireland 5.3%.

A flash estimate on eurozone inflation for October came in at just 0.7% annualized, down from 0.8% in September and 2.3% last October.  Ex-food and energy the number is 1.2% vs. 1.3% a year ago.

Separately, France reported third-quarter GDP was better than expected, 0.3% over Q2, owing to increased domestic demand that offset falling trade.

Britain’s car production fell another 3.8% in September, with overall production for the first nine months of the year down 15.6% over the same period a year ago.  All about the following and political uncertainty.

Brexit: There was no chaotic exit from the European Union on Halloween.  British Prime Minister Boris Johnson succeeded in getting Parliament to back a special election for December 12.  By a margin of 438 to 20, the House of Commons approved legislation paving the way for the first December vote since 1923. 

So we have just five weeks of campaigning, with Johnson saying the public must be “given a choice” over the future of Brexit and the country.

Johnson is hoping to receive a fresh mandate for his Brexit deal and break the current Parliamentary deadlock, after the EU granted a further delay in the UK’s exit to January 31.

But some Labour MPs have expressed misgivings over the timing of the election, believing only another referendum can settle the Brexit question for good.

More than 100 Labour MPs did not take part or abstained in Tuesday’s crucial vote, while 11 voted against an election.  A total of 127 Labour MPs, including leader Jeremy Corbyn, supported it.

The election result will be announced on Friday, Dec. 13, and if no party wins conclusively, the future of Brexit will be thrown up in the air again with options ranging from a tumultuous no-deal, crash-out, to another referendum that could scuttle the whole divorce.

Corbyn is casting the election as a chance for real change, framing Labour as a socialist alternative to the inequality and close relations with President Trump that he says characterizes Johnson’s premiership.  [Think Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders.]

Corbyn is promising to nationalize rail, water and energy companies while taxing high earners to fund public services.

Johnson is saying it’s more than just Brexit for his Conservatives, and that he’ll be focusing on spending on schools, hospitals and police, with a lightly regulated business hub.

In early polls, Johnson is generally ahead by 10 points, with the last three giving him a lead of 11 to 17.

Meanwhile, the Brexit Party led by Nigel Farage seeks to poach Brexit voters and the Liberal Democrats seek to win over opponents of Brexit.

It’s going to be about building a viable coalition all over again, it would seem.  While the Conservatives have a healthy early lead, it’s unlikely they’ll end up with more than 40%.

Meanwhile, President Trump is interfering, of course, telling Nigel Farage in a radio interview that he was critical of the deal Johnson reached with the EU and that he’d have trouble doing a trade deal with Britain as things now stand, this after saying in August that he promised a “very big trade deal” with the UK.

Now there is no way Trump has any clue as to the details of the latest Brexit deal with the EU, but this is Trump being Trump.

The European Union’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, said on Wednesday the risk of Britain’s chaotic departure from the bloc without a divorce agreement still existed, and that future trade talks would be “difficult and demanding.”

“The risk of Brexit happening without a ratified deal still exists,” Barnier said in a speech in Brussels. “We still need to prepare.”

“In all member states, there is a big difference in preparedness between bigger companies and SMEs (small and medium enterprises).  It’s not time to become complacent.”

Barnier said a no-deal split could happen at the end of January, if the British parliament failed to ratify Johnson’s deal and London did not get another delay of the divorce.

But as Barnier alludes to, most folks aren’t thinking about the fact a no-deal split could come about at the end of 2020, the transition period, if no new trade deal is agreed to between the two sides by then, and no extra time is given to achieve that.

So let’s say Britain finally exits in January, that isn’t a lot of time to complete trade negotiations.  As in, I’ll be freakin’ talking about this topic for over another year.  Drat!

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“Boris Johnson on Tuesday finally cajoled Britain’s reluctant Parliament to call a December general election to try to settle Brexit.  It’s a brave and desperate gamble – one that will work only if he runs a campaign persuading voters to embrace a Brexit vision bigger than the divorce deal he needs a new Parliament to pass.

“Britain’s recent Brexit miseries have arisen from the hung Parliament elected after Theresa May’s disastrous 2017 bid for a larger majority.  Mrs. May’s big-government-conservative campaign left voters confused about what improvements either Brexit or a Conservative government could bring.  She barely held on in a tenuous alliance with a Northern Ireland unionist party that caused her to adopt impractical red lines on trade policy in Brexit talks with the European Union, and her Brexit deal failed in Parliament.

“Unlike Mrs. May, Mr. Johnson is leading with energy and daring.  He used a looming Oct. 31 deadline for Brexit to coax a better deal with the EU but the Parliament keeps blocking it.  In asking for a new election he is calling the bluff of the opposition Labour Party and anti-Brexit Liberal Democrats and taking his case to the voters for a new Parliament.  Voters frustrated that Brexit hasn’t happened know that this is their last chance.  No other leader or party will make it happen....

“Mr. Johnson will have to show voters the vision of a self-confident nation that will prosper after Brexit. This will have to include the case for  economic reform so the country can be a magnet for investment and the world’s brightest minds.  A campaign that merely tries to scare voters about Mr. Corbyn could end up with another hung Parliament that would end Brexit and leave British politics more bitter and dysfunctional than even during the last three years.  Mr. Johnson needs an optimistic agenda for a Greater Britain.”

Spain: Acting Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez on Friday ruled out forming a “grand coalition” with the opposition People’s Party after a parliamentary election on Nov. 10.  A previous election in April ended in a stalemate and opinion polls show the repeat vote could as inconclusive, with no easy path to forming a government.

Sanchez, a socialist, has said, “We are not going to form a government with a party that has reached pacts with the extreme right, that trivializes gender violence, equality between men and women, and the democratic history of our country.”

The polls show that a combination of the Socialists and PP would make up 2/3s of parliament.

Turning to Asia, we had a continuation of the divergence in China’s manufacturing PMI data for October, with the official government reading, as put out by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), at 49.3 vs. 49.8, a sixth straight month of contraction, while the private Caixin figure for last month was 51.7 vs. 51.4 in September, the fastest rate of growth in the sector since Feb. 2017, with new orders expanding at their fastest pace since Jan. 2013.

Now remember...the government figure is for state-owned enterprises, while Caixin focuses on small and medium-sized businesses, the private sector.

The government’s reading on the service sector was 52.8, vs. 53.7 the prior month.  Caixin’s non-manufacturing PMI print is released next week.

Additionally, China reported industrial profits fell 5.3% in September vs. a year ago, the steepest decline in four year, down 2.1% the first nine months according to the NBS.

The government has been trying to spur domestic demand for over a year, largely through higher infrastructure spending, but the measures have been slow to take hold.  The Communist Party’s official mouthpiece, the People’s Daily, editorialized Thursday that stabilizing growth should be made more of a priority, calling for expanding investment in infrastructure where it is needed.

In Japan, the manufacturing PMI for October came in at 48.4 vs. 48.9, still contraction. 

The jobless rate for September ticked up to 2.4% from 2.3%, with the figure at a nearly 30-year low (1992) in July and August, 2.2%.

September retail sales were up 9.1% year-over-year, the strongest pace in 5 ½ years, but remember this was because of the looming sales tax hike in October.  Car sales were up 16.9%.

September industrial output was up 1.4% over August.

South Korea’s manufacturing PMI was 48.4 last month vs. 48.0 in September. 

Exports in October cratered 14.7%, the 11th consecutive month of declines, while imports fell 11.7%, both worse than expected.

But at least the South Korean and Japanese governments are working on a plan for a joint economic program involving companies from both countries that aims to ease recent strains over the issue of forced labor in World War II.

Taiwan’s manufacturing PMI for October was 49.8 vs. 50.0.

So you see the trade war between the United States and China continues to roil all of Asia.

Street Bytes

--Stocks hit new highs this week in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, as earnings continued to beat expectations (75% of S&P 500 companies thus far vs. a historic average of 72%), while the Fed rate cut, even if anticipated, didn’t hurt, and there was a modicum of optimism on the trade front.

The Dow Jones rose 1.4% to 27347, just 12 points shy of the all-time high, while the S&P, up 1.5%, and Nasdaq, up 1.7%, are at record levels.

Earnings, per FactSet, are projected to fall 2.7% in the third quarter, but this is the bottom.  The question is are analysts too optimistic about growth in the future?

Trump tweet:

--U.S. Treasury Yields

6-mo. 1.53%  2-yr. 1.55%  10-yr. 1.71%  30-yr. 2.19%

Bonds rallied on the Fed cut primarily.

--Apple Inc. reported revenue rose 1.8% in the September quarter to $64.04 billion, driven by rising sales of wearables such as the smartwatch, as well as services, including apps and streaming-music subscriptions.  These gains helped offset a decline in iPhone sales of 9.2%, continuing a trend for the past year.

Profit fell 3% to $13.69 billion, better than expected but marking the first time since CEO Tim Cook took over in 2011 that Apple’s profit has declined in all four quarters of a fiscal year.

With declining smartphone sales, Apple has been emphasizing services and accessories for its 900 million iPhones in use worldwide.  Apple did guide higher for the current quarter, saying its new iPhone 11 models are being well received.

The company said its China business had improved considerably and that Chinese customers’ responses to the new iPhones was “very, very good,” according to the CFO.  The iPhone still accounts for more than half of Apple’s revenue.

Apple’s operating expenses rose 9% in the quarter, outpacing revenue growth, as Apple and others in the tech sector spend more on technology and research and development in general.

Apple said the iPhone market would improve, as the company slashed the price on its new, entry-level iPhone by $50 from its predecessor model, which the company says has helped in China.  Sales in Greater China, including Hong Kong and Taiwan, fell 2.4% to $11.13 billion, an improvement from the first half of the fiscal year when sales dropped more than 20%.

Canalys, a market research firm, said Apple shipped an estimated 5.1 million in the third quarter, a 28% decrease from a year earlier.

Apple shares surged at the close today to another record high, $255.90, on a report the company is seeking tariff exclusions from 11 products, according to filings with the U.S. Trade Representative’s Office.

To quote Gen. Anthony McAuliffe at Bastogne, when the Germans asked him to surrender, “Nuts!”

[Meanwhile, Huawei Technologies reported that its dominance of China’s smartphone market grew to a 42% market share, 41.5 million of the 97.8 million smartphones shipped in the third quarter as domestic consumers rallied behind it after U.S. sanctions.  And on Thursday, state-owned carriers China Mobile, China Unicom and China Telecom unveiled their 5G data plans.  The superfast service is now available to Chinese consumers in 50 cities, including Beijing and Shanghai.  More than 130,000 5G base stations will be activated by the end of the year to support the 5G network, the government said in a statement.  Huawei supplies the bulk of the network equipment for China’s rollout and has been in talks with various other countries to help with their 5G networks.]

--Facebook shares surged after the company reported solid third-quarter results showing steady growth in its user base even as it faces broad regulatory threats and criticism over its power and negative effects on society.

CEO Mark Zuckerberg lauded the company’s performance in launching into an impassioned monologue about principles and free speech during a conference call with analysts.  The call began less than an hour after Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey announced that his company was banning all political ads from its platform, a challenge to Facebook, which is continuing to stand by its much-criticized decision not to fact check such ads.

“Today is certainly a historical moment of social tension, and I view an important role of our company as defending free expression,” Zuckerberg said.  The CEO said he’s considered banning political ads, but “on balance so far I’ve thought we should continue.”

Facebook earned $6.09 billion, or $2.12 per share in the quarter, up 19% from $5.14 billion, or $1.76 per share a year ago.  Revenue rose 29% to $17.65 billion from $13.73 billion.

Facebook ended the quarter with 2.45 billion monthly users, up 8% from a year earlier.  At least 2.8 billion use at least one of its services, Facebook, Messenger, WhatsApp or Instagram at least once a month.

Facebook’s expenses in Q3 were $10.5 billion, up 32% compared with a year ago.

--Meanwhile, as alluded to, Twitter said it would ban political advertisements on the site starting Nov. 22. There will be exceptions for ads in support of voter registration or a similar topic.

“Paying to increase the reach of political speech has significant ramifications that today’s democratic infrastructure may not be prepared to handle,” said CEO Jack Dorsey.  “It’s worth stepping back in order to address.”

Political advertising represents a small portion of Twitter’s overall advertising.

Twitter’s decision bolsters the argument among social-media critics that the content platform operators allow people to pay to promote should be held to higher standards than the content that spreads organically on their platforms.

--Alphabet Inc.’s quarterly earnings were dented by heavy investment in Google’s cloud-computing business, which is key to future growth, though it remains behind Amazon.com and Microsoft in the sector.

Net income was $7.1 billion, down from $9.2 billion in the same period last year, though the shares didn’t react as poorly as you may have thought.

In the quarter, expenses totaled $31.3 billion, up 25% from a year earlier, while revenue rose 20% to $40.5 billion.  Capital spending was up 27% to $6.7 billion.

Google’s ad revenue rose 17% to $33.9 billion, so that remains strong. 

Separately, today Google reached a deal to acquire Fitbit Inc. for roughly $2.1 billion, a move that intensifies the battle among the tech giants to capture customers through more than smartphones.

The price of $7.35 a share represented a 19% premium to Fitbit’s closing price Thursday.

--But speaking of cloud computing, over the weekend, Microsoft won the Pentagon’s $10 billion cloud computing contract, the Defense Department said, beating out favorite Amazon.

The Joint Enterprise Defense Infrastructure Cloud (JEDI) contract is part of a broader modernization of the Pentagon’s information technology systems meant to make the Defense Department more digitally agile.

But the contracting process has been mired in cries of conflict of interest allegations.  Oracle Corp. called out Amazon when it became clear a former Amazon employee who worked on the project at the Defense Department, later left the Pentagon to return to Amazon Web Services.

But then the decision to go with Microsoft was seen as an example of President Trump’s power, Trump having expressed opposition to giving the award to a company led by Jeff Bezos, Bezos owning the Washington Post.  Federal acquisition laws forbid politicians, including the president, from influencing contract awards.

Amazon had been openly described by competitors and industry analysts as a clear front-runner because of its years of experience handling classified data for the CIA.  The military also gave the company its highest data management certification.  Microsoft’s was one step below Amazon’s.

Franklin Turner, an attorney with the law firm McCarter & English, said the president’s role in the procurement will almost certainly become the subject of litigation.

“It’s crystal clear here that the President of the United States did not want this contract to be awarded to one of the competitors,” Turner said.  “As a result it’s fairly likely that we will see a number of challenges that the procurement was not conducted on a level playing field.”

“Microsoft should expect a near-term war here,” Turner said.  “It’s a virtual guarantee that Amazon is going to pull out all the stops to check the government’s math on this one.” 

Back in July, at a news conference, President Trump said he had asked aides to investigate the JEDI contract because he had received complaints from Amazon’s competitors.

“I’m getting tremendous complaints about the contract with the Pentagon and with Amazon. ...They’re saying it wasn’t competitively bid,” Trump said.  “Some of the greatest companies in the world are complaining about it, having to do with Amazon and the Department of Defense, and I will be asking them to look at it very closely to see what’s going on.” [Washington Post]

--Fiat Chrysler is going to merge with France-based PSA (which owns Peugeot and Citroen) to create the world’s fourth-largest car company.  The 50-50 merger is expected to provide significant cost savings, which will no doubt result in a ton of layoffs. 

Fiat Chrysler, the Italian-U.S. business behind Jeep, Alfa Romeo and Maserati, has been looking for a big tie-up for years, believing that consolidation in the global industry is needed to cut costs and overcapacity, and fund investment in electric vehicles.  It has tried previously to form alliances with GM and Renault.

The combined Fiat Chrysler-PSA will have a market value of about $50 billion, with annual sales of 8.7 million vehicles.  The companies said there are no plans to shut factories but it seems to me this is inevitable.  Folks in Britain are particularly worried about the Vauxhall division of PSA, which employs 3,000 in the UK.

As for France, the unions are a major factor and French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire suggested his government would protect French interests.  He welcomed the deal, saying it would give the two groups the critical mass needed to invest in cleaner technologies. And he added: “The government will be particularly vigilant over preserving (the group’s) industrial footprint in France.”

The top automakers, post-merger, would be Volkswagen AG with sales of 10.8 million vehicles last year, the same as the Renault, Nissan and Mitsubishi Motors alliance, No. 3 Toyota at 10.6 million, the Fiat Chrysler-PSA 8.7m, and No. 5 General Motors 8.4 million.

--Speaking of General Motors Co., on Tuesday it posted a stronger-than-expected quarterly profit on robust U.S. demand for its lucrative pickup trucks and SUVs (up 6%), offsetting the $3-billion hit from a U.S. labor strike that led it to slash its earnings forecast.

“The underlying business was strong this quarter,” the CFO said, describing the strike as a “one-time impact.”

Last Friday, the 48,000 UAW union members at GM ratified a new four-year labor deal with the Detroit company, ending a 40-day strike.

Separately, GM reported its China’s Q3 sales fell 17.5%, the fifth straight quarterly sales decline for GM in China, the world’s largest auto market.  The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers expects a 5% decline in industry sales in 2019, which would be the second consecutive annual sales drop in the country.

--Qantas Airways Ltd. and Southwest Airlines Co. are stepping up checks for structural cracks on Boeing 737 NGs after discovering problems with planes that did not require urgent inspections, according to Reuters.

This is the issue of the “pickle fork” – a part that attaches the plane’s fuselage to the wing structure.  Repairing the cracks requires grounding the airplane and costs an estimated $275,000 per aircraft, according to aviation consultancy IBA.  There are thousands of 737 NG planes in use around the world.

The Federal Aviation Administration on Oct. 2 mandated checks of 737 NGs with more than 30,000 take-off and landing cycles – which typically correspond to the number of flights – within seven days.

But Qantas discovered cracks in a plane with well under 30,000 cycles.  Southwest found cracks in one with about 28,500 cycles, a source told Reuters.

Sounds like parents should be guiding their children to the ACME Pickle Fork Academy for a future career path, though to be fair, American Airlines and United have yet to find an issue in their entire fleet of 737 NG planes, though none of these have over 30,000 cycles.

South Korea’s transport ministry said all nine 737 NGs grounded in the country with cracks had more than 30,000 cycles.

So this week Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg went to Congress to plea for mercy as lawmakers sharply criticized him in trying to pin down what he knew about internal concerns that employees appear to have given a heads-up to issues concerning the flight-control system on the 737 MAX that led to two fatal crashes.

The Senate Commerce Committee repeatedly questioned Muilenburg about an instant-message exchange in 2016 in which two company pilots discussed “egregious” flight-control maneuvers experienced during simulator tests of the MAX jetliner.

Sen. Ted Cruz (R, Tex.) asked Muilenburg: “How in the heck did nobody bring this to your attention in February when you produced this to the Department of Justice?”

He also asked: “How did your team not put it in front of you, run in with their hair on fire, saying we got a real problem here?...What does that say about the culture of Boeing?”

Muilenburg said he had been briefed generally about documents that were provided to the Justice Department, saying “I believe it was prior to the second crash.”

When Cruz questioned Muilenburg on whether he has spoken about the 2016 with one of the employees who still works at Boeing as a senior pilot, he replied, “my team has talked” with the employee, but when pressed, Muilenburg said he himself has not.

Muilenburg also said he wasn’t involved with how the documents on the exchange were shared with the FAA and Congress, months after they were given to the Justice Department.  “I can only apologize as to how this came through the process,” he said.  [Wall Street Journal]

--Boeing’s struggles have allowed rival Airbus SE to surge ahead in the jet-making duopoly’s annual contest for orders and deliveries.

On Tuesday, Airbus booked one of its biggest orders ever – for 300 aircraft valued at a list price of at least $33 billion – doubling its order book for the year. The deal, with India’s IndiGo Airlines, was for the Airbus A320neo single-aisle jetliner, the chief rival to the 737 MAX.

So year-to-date, Airbus’ gross orders are 603 planes to Boeing’s 170.

In actual deliveries, Airbus leads 571 to 301 for 2019.  It would be the Toulouse, France-based company’s first annual win on deliveries since 2011.

--General Electric shares rose 11% after the industrial conglomerate raised its free cash flow guidance and affirmed its earnings outlook for the full year after its third-quarter earnings beat forecasts.

For the quarter ending Sept. 30, adjusted per-share earnings rose to $0.15 from $0.11 in the prior year period and above the Street’s view for $0.12.  Total revenue slid to $23.36 billion from $23.39 billion the year before.

CEO Lawrence Culp said: “Our results reflect another quarter of progress in the transformation of GE. We are encouraged by our strong backlog, organic growth, margin expansion, and positive cash trajectory amidst global macro uncertainty.”

--Samsung Electronics, which reported a 56% fall in third-quarter operating profit on Thursday, reeling from memory price declines amid a prolonged industry downturn, nonetheless is positive on the chip outlook in 2020 thanks to anticipated demand from data-center customers and the continuing expansion of 5G smartphones.  The South Korean giant did warn that uncertainties remained in the macroeconomic environment, a reference to the U.S.-China trade dispute.

The world’s top maker of memory chips and smartphone said operating profit was $6.7 billion, with revenue down 5.3%.

--Shares in Merck rose after the company reported soaring sales of cancer drug Keytruda and a vaccine to protect against a virus that causes cervical cancer, allowing the company to beat expectations in the third quarter.

Revenue was $12.4 billion, up 15 percent from the same period a year ago and well above the consensus forecast.  Sales of Keytruda – which has been receiving approval to treat different kinds of cancers – grew 62 percent to $3.1 billion.

Merck also raised its revenue and earnings guidance for the full year.              

--Johnson & Johnson said Tuesday its testing didn’t find asbestos in bottles of its Baby Powder, including the bottle that the Food and Drug Administration recently said contained the carcinogen.  J&J said at the time it was recalling one lot – 33,000 bottles – out of an abundance of caution, and would investigate the matter.

The company said tests were conducted by two third-party laboratories as part of its ongoing investigation.

“Rigorous and third-party testing confirms there is no asbestos in Johnson’s Baby Powder,” J&J said in a statement.  “We stand by the safety of our product.”

--The largest privately owned coal producer in the U.S., Murray Energy Corp., filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, thus becoming the eighth coal producer to collapse over the past year amid diminished demand for coal and competition from cheaper alternatives.

Robert Murray, founder of the company, has been a staunch supporter of President Trump, who in his campaign rallies in Coal Country likes to tout his successes since he came into office, but in the case of the coal industry in America, net-net, last I saw employment gains were literally in the hundreds, and now I’m sure that figure has gone negative.

The decline in the sector has come about for a number of reasons, including the closure of coal-fired power plants, record production of natural gas, and the growth in wind and solar power.  In its bankruptcy filing, the company also cited the “recent trade war driving Russia to increase exports,” as well as depressed demand for U.S. coal from international utilities.

Robert Murray is losing control of the company, with Robert Moore succeeding him as CEO.  It’s a little confusing to moi as to whether he could remain chairman of a successor company. 

Many of us will remember Mr. Murray for the fatal Crandell Canyon Mine collapse in Utah, which Murray Energy owned through a subsidiary, but I don’t have time to get into his handling of this tragedy.

By the way, the portion of the electrical grid powered by coal fell to 28% last year, down from 48% in 2008, according to the Energy Information Administration.  It will drop much further.

--AT&T Inc. announced that Chairman and CEO Randall Stephenson would stay at the helm through next year after reaching agreement with an activist investor.  Stephenson has used big acquisitions of Time Warner and DirecTV to turn AT&T into a major media provider, a move that activist Elliott Management Corp. called into question.  On Monday, Stephenson announced AT&T would forego big takeovers for now to focus on improving the bottom line.

Overall, quarterly profit and revenue declined in the third quarter from a year earlier as the company’ core cellphone business gained subscribers, but more than one million customers abandoned the DirecTV unit.

Cord-cutting has sapped the satellite-television provider, putting greater importance on AT&T’s launch of a new streaming service called HBO Max that will be designed to compete with Netflix Inc. and other video services.

AT&T reported a profit of $3.7 billion for the quarter, down 22% from $4.72 billion a year ago, while revenue fell 2.5% to $44.6 billion, with declines across its business units.

--Tiffany & Co. received a friendly takeover approach from LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton, which is seeking to add the iconic U.S. jeweler to its portfolio of upscale brands.  The French company sent Tiffany officials a letter in the past few weeks outlining an all-cash takeover bid of about $120 a share, valuing the company at $14.5 billion.

Tiffany’s shares closed last Friday at $98.55, and quickly traded above the $120 target price, indicating a higher bid would be necessary to secure the deal.  [The stock closed today at $126.90.]

Tiffany, which has about $4 billion in annual revenue, has struggled with lackluster sales growth for years.

--Starbucks Corp. beat the Street on both sales and revenues for the third quarter, driven by new stores, new forms of delivery in China, and cold drinks in the U.S.  Total net revenue rose 7% to $6.75 billion, higher than the Street’s forecast of $6.68 billion.

Starbucks has been focusing on digital sales, which is important in China, for both delivery and mobile ordering.

Global same-store sales rose 5%, better than expected as well.  The company estimates fiscal 2020 global comp sales will rise 3% to 4%.

Starbucks plans about 2,000 new store openings in 2020, with 600 in the Americas and 1,400 more intentionally.

A key driver for U.S. growth has been cold beverages, including iced teas and coffee, with U.S. comp sales rising a strong 6%.  But it’s not just a summer thing.  Younger consumers are viewing cold coffee as a healthier alternative to soda, according to a recent Guggenheim report.

--Yum! Brands stock slumped after the fast-food firm reported disappointing third-quarter earnings and a charge related to its stake in Grubhub, the food-delivery company whose stock lost 43% of its value on Tuesday.

Same-store sales at Yum’s Taco Bell unit were up 4% in the quarter, 3% at KFC, and were flat at Pizza Hut.  Global system sales (ex-currency) climbed 8%, led by an 8% gain at KFC and increases of both 7% at both Pizza Hut and Taco Bell.  Overall same-store sales were up 3%, below analyst expectations, ditto overall revenue.

The Grubhub issue is a biggie, with Yum having invested $200 million in the delivery firm last year, with other quick-service restaurants looking to delivery as a way to boost sales.

--Kellogg Co.’s quarterly revenue and profit beat Wall Street expectations on Tuesday, as demand for its Pringles and Cheez-it snacks, as well as frozen foods cushioned the impact of sluggish sales for its cereals in North America.  The company has been stepping up efforts to attract health-conscious consumers with plant-based and probiotic products as they shun sugary cereals that were once a staple on American breakfast tables.

You would think Kellogg’s MorningStar Farms brand would have great potential with the move to plant-based meat alternatives.  After all, they were one of the first, way back, to enter this segment.  The brand did see double-digit growth in the quarter.

CEO Steve Cahillane does expect the cereal market to improve, and I have rediscovered Corn Chex...not that it’s all about me. [Plus that’s General Mills.]

--Beyond Meat Inc. reported its first-ever net profit and raised its full-year sales forecast, but shares tumbled 6.5% in response at first as the vegan burger maker said it would need to offer more store discounts or promotions as competition heats up.

Beyond Meat raised its full-year net revenue forecast for the second time to $265 million to $275 million.  A key for investors is going to be how quickly the company can announce tie-ins, especially with big restaurant chains.

It didn’t help though that the company’s IPO lockup period expired Tuesday. The stock hit an all-time high of $239 on July 26, but finished the week at just $82.00.

--The Chicken Sandwich Wars are returning!  I vow to be an active participant this time.

More than two months after Popeyes sold out of its newly released and first nationwide chicken sandwich, on Monday the chicken chain announced it would return Nov. 3, coinciding with National Sandwich Day.  A Sunday?  Well, rival Chick-fil-A is closed on Sundays.

Last time Popeyes announced on Aug. 12, it was so popular it immediately sold out at some locations.

--Speaking of Popeyes, its owner, Restaurant Brands International, said Monday that sales rose at its Burger King and Popeyes units in the third quarter thanks to the latter’s spicy chicken sandwich and the former’s plant-based Impossible Whopper.  But sales continued to fall at Tim Hortons following the introduction of a plant-based sausage sandwich from Beyond Meat Inc.

Sales at Popeyes restaurants grew 10.2% in the U.S. during the quarter, roughly double analysts’ projections. 

Burger King’s same-store sales in the U.S. grew 5%, owing to introduction of the Impossible Whopper.

But Tim Hortons saw its comp sales dip 1.4% during the quarter, as Restaurant Brands began to test Beyond Meat offerings in select Canadian outlets.

--Molson Coors Brewing Co. announced it planned to cut between 400 and 500 positions as part of a broad restructuring that will also include the company dropping the word “Brewing” from its name. 

Molson Coors employs about 18,000 workers globally, with more than half in North America.

In the U.S., brewers are struggling as Americans drink less alcohol and, in particular, beer.  Beer volumes fell 1.5% and 1.1% in 2018 and 2017, respectively, according to industry tracker IWSR.

Molson Coors said it was grappling with weak sales of Coors Light (not if I’m included in their surveys...plus their new slate of commercials is great...) and was looking to build out its broad portfolio of “brewed beverages,” including beer, tea and coffee.  The company recently invested in Boulder-Co.-based Bhakti Chai Tea Co.

--Altria Group Inc. wrote down its investment in Juul Labs Inc. by more than a third, $4.5 billion, and now holds its stake at a price that values the e-cigarette maker at about $24 billion, down from its $38 billion valuation when Altria invested last year.

The Marlboro maker last year agreed to pay $12.8 billion for a 35% stake in Juul, making it one of Silicon Valley’s most valuable startups.  Now, Juul is facing a planned federal ban on e-cigarette flavors that represent more than 80% of its U.S. sales. The company plans to cut 400 to 600 jobs by year end as a result.

--According to the World Organization for Animal Health, around a quarter of the world’s pigs are expected to die from African swine fever as authorities grapple with a complex disease spreading rapidly in the globalization era.

The disease’s spread in the past year to countries including China, which has half the world’s pigs, had inflamed a worldwide crisis.

Dr. Mark Schipp, the organization’s president, said, “I don’t think the species will be lost, but it’s the biggest threat to the commercial raising of pigs we’ve ever seen.  And it’s the biggest threat to any commercial livestock of our generation.”

African swine fever, fatal to hogs but no threat to humans, has wiped out pig herds in many Asian countries. Chinese authorities have destroyed about 1.2 million pigs in an effort to contain the disease there since August 2018.

--More than 380,000 gallons of oil spilled from the Keystone pipeline in North Dakota this week, one of the largest onshore crude spills in the past decade.  The oil affected about 2,500 square yards of land, about half the size of a football field, the company, TC Energy, said in a statement.

--Finally, if you want to be a ski bum this winter, you should have your pick of jobs.  I was reading an AP report on the industry and with the tight labor market, ski areas across the country are having a tough time filling jobs, upping the ante by providing more housing and boosting wages, as well as other perks.

New Hampshire’s Wildcat, for example, is offering a $1,000 bonus for new snowmakers, and Sunday River in Maine last year increased its hourly wage from $13 to $20 for that job.  Sugarbush in Vermont is hiring more foreign college students.

There are about 460 ski resorts in America and they hire around 100,000 seasonal workers each fall, with foreign guest workers representing 5% to 10% of the total.

The biggest issue these days is finding affordable housing.

Foreign Affairs

Syria: On Thursday, ISIS broke its silence to confirm the deaths of Baghdadi and his heir apparent, announcing a new leader while warning America: “Do not be happy.”

In an audio recording, the Islamic State mourned the loss of the two leaders, and then said the successor is Abu Ibrahim al-Hashemi al-Qurayshi, whom it identified as the “emir of the believers” and “caliph.”  This may not be his real name, with no one seeming to have ever heard of the guy, except perhaps President Trump, who tweeted: “ISIS has a new leader. We know exactly who he is!”

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad said on Thursday that his government’s ultimate goal was to restore state authority over Kurdish controlled areas in northeast Syria following the U.S. troop withdrawal but said this would happen gradually.  In a state television interview Assad also said that a deal between Turkish President Erdogan and Russian President Putin to drive out the Kurdish-led YPG militia from a 30km (19 mile) “safe zone” along the border was a “positive” step that would help Damascus achieve its goal.  “It might not achieve everything...it paves the road to liberate this area in the near future we hope,” said Assad.

Assad said the Kurds would not be asked to immediately hand over their weapons when the Syrian army enters their areas in a final deal that brings back state control to the swathe of territory the Kurds now control.

It was with U.S. backing that the Kurds took control of northeastern Syria from ISIS.  But the predominantly Arab population of the area has seen rising resentment against the Kurds.

Assad added that following President Trump’s decision to keep a small number of U.S. troops in the Kurdish-held areas of Syria where you have the oil showed that Washington was a colonial power that was doomed to leave once Syrians resist their occupation, as in Iraq.

For his part, Erdogan, still plans to establish a “refugee town or towns” in the “safe zone” between the border towns of Tel Abyad and Ras al Ain, where he wants to resettle an initial 405,000 people currently in Turkey.  Erdogan’s ultimate goal is 2 million.  Oh, this won’t be too destabilizing. He has asked the UN for a donor conference to cover the costs.

Earlier, Russia said the withdrawal of Kurdish force from a safe zone near the northeastern Syrian border with Turkey had been completed.  Turkey said it would form joint patrols with Russia.

Iraq: Masked gunmen opened fire on Iraqi protesters in the Shiite holy city of Karbala, killing 18 people and wounding hundreds in one of the deadliest single attacks since anti-government demonstrations erupted earlier this month.  The nationwide protests have been against government corruption, lack of services and other grievances, but the bloodshed in Karbala, a major pilgrimage site where a revered Shiite figure was killed in a 7th-century battle*, could mark a turning point in the demonstrations, though it was not clear who was behind the attack, and protesters said they did not know whether the masked men were riot police, special forces or Iran-linked militias.

*The victim was Hussein, grandson of the Prophet Muhammad, with the battle representing a key moment in the schism that developed between Shiite and Sunni Muslims.

Aside from the toll in Karbala, at least 73 protesters were killed in the second wave of anti-government demonstrations, after 149 were killed during an earlier wave of protests in October.

Most of the demonstrations have erupted in Shiite-majority areas and have been directed at the Shiite-dominated government and Shiite political parties and militias, many of which are supported by Iran.  One thing to watch is to see if the protests in Iraq now spill over into Iran.  The decision to send Iranian forces to Syria was not popular among the people.  Now Tehran is doing the same in deploying forces to Syria in the midst of poor economic times.

Lebanon: After ten days of intense anti-government protests across the country, some estimates having a quarter of the country taking to the streets, Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned, saying he had “reached a dead end” in trying to resolve a crisis unleashed by huge protests against the ruling elite and plunging the country deeper into turmoil.  Hariri addressed the nation after a mob loyal to the Hezbollah and Amal movements attacked and destroyed a protest camp set up by anti-government demonstrators in Beirut.  The departure of Hariri, who has been traditionally backed by the West and Sunni Gulf Arab allies, raises the stakes and pushes Lebanon into an unpredictable cycle, amid the worst economic crisis in the country since the 1975-90 civil war.

The demonstrators had demanded an end to government corruption, decrying decaying infrastructure, intermittent electricity and water, little work and high prices.

Hariri’s resignation was a wake-up call for Hezbollah, the Shiite Muslim organization that is recognized as a terrorist organization by the United States.  The group had consolidated its political clout in elections last year and wielded power in a coalition government that allowed it to maintain its arsenal of weapons it says it needs to fight Israel and protect its people.

Hezbollah has also railed against corruption, and has a reputation of being relatively free of it.

But Hezbollah had become part of the “establishment,” the target of the protesters. Their anger could end up being directed against them.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah had urged that the Hariri government stay, saying the uprisings had been co-opted by foreign powers antagonistic to Hezbollah.

As with everything else in Lebanon, it’s complicated.

For now, President Michel Aoun pledged on Thursday to form a new government in which ministers would be chosen by expertise rather than political affiliation. In a televised address Aoun pledged to move the state away from its sectarian-based political system to a civil state calling sectarianism a “destructive disease.”

Protesters have been calling for such a technocratic government and the end of a system where posts are allocated according to religious sects.

Israel: Blue and White and Likud, the two main political parties, continue to express extreme skepticism about the possibility of building a coalition, even as the two held talks to form such a unity government.

Addressing party activists Thursday, Blue and White leader Benny Gantz, who is now tasked with forming a government after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu failed to do so, said he wants “a broad, liberal unity government – or any other way to form a government...I will make every effort to make progress...I am determined to have a government and not an election.”

Gantz has railed against Justice Minister Amir Ohana for giving a speech where Ohana claimed there was a conspiracy against Netanyahu, related to the corruption charges he faces.

Many in Blue and White do not trust Netanyahu to stick to the terms of a rotation agreement for the premiership, saying: “If Netanyahu is first, no one will be second...No one trusts him not to go back on his promises,” a party source told the Jerusalem Post.

If a third vote needed to be held in less than a year, 52% would blame Netanyahu, followed by 21% who would think Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Liberman is at fault, 19% would pin the blame on Yair Lapid and just 8% on Gantz.

But the results of a third election would be the same as before.  Blue and White with 34 seats (it took 35 last time), and Likud 33, out of the 120-seat Knesset, according to a J-Post poll.

China / Hong Kong: It would appear from various reports that Chinese President Xi Jinping emerged from this week’s big Communist Party conclave with his power intact, despite a slowing economy, bruising trade war and the unrest in Hong Kong.

In a communique released after the four-day meeting in Beijing, an annual gathering of about 370 party officials, Xi was praised for delivering “important progress” in China’s development amid an increasingly complex global environment, while calling on the party to stay the course with his policies.

As reported by the Wall Street Journal, the word “persevere” appears 57 times in the document.  The message appears to have been that in this turbulent world, China needs even more party control; the communique urging the party and the nation to “unite even more closely” around Xi’s leadership. 

There was no signal of compromise when it came to Beijing’s approach to governing Hong Kong.

Speaking of which, we have another huge weekend coming up regarding the protests there, after violence on Thursday marred Halloween festivities when police fired tear gas at protesters and were heckled by revelers. It was the first time the party/bar zone district of Lan Kwai Fong was targeted.

The Asian financial hub faces another mass demonstration on Saturday, the latest after more than five months of unrest, and the economic toll has become considerable.  Police measures to bar people from entering the party zone has led to at least a 50% drop in business for bars and restaurants, a local association reports.

And Thursday, official data confirmed Hong Kong slid into recession for the first time since the global financial crisis in the third quarter, the economy shrinking 3.2% from the preceding period, contracting for a second straight quarter and meeting the technical definition of a recession.

As part of the above-mentioned Communist Party conclave, China vowed to ensure Hong Kong’s prosperity and stability and protect national security in the face of unrest, but of course the protesters are saying Beijing is interfering more and more in the territory and encroaching on freedoms guaranteed under a “one country, two systems” formula.

On Thursday, Hong Kong’s High Court issued a temporary injunction banning people from posting or spreading messages online which “incites the use or threat of violence.”

It’s the first time authorities have tried to curb the publishing of comments online, which critics see as a dangerous precedent.

One more...tomorrow’s mass demonstration will be fueled in part, I’m guessing, by the move authorities made this week to bar prominent democracy activist Joshua Wong from running in local elections scheduled for later this month, citing his political views, which will only inflame the opposition.

Wong, who has said he doesn’t support independence, accused official media (such as the Communist Party’s official People’s Daily newspaper) of branding him a separatist.  Wong was the only candidate to be blocked from the elections

Separately, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Wednesday stepped up recent attacks on China’s ruling Communist Party, saying it was focused on international domination and needed to be confronted.

Echoing a speech last week by Vice President Pence attacking China’s record on human rights, trade and methods to expand its global influence, Pompeo said the United States had long cherished its friendship with the Chinese people, but added:

“The Communist government in China today is not the same as the people of China. They are reaching for and using methods that have created challenges for the United States and for the world and we collectively, all of us, need to confront these challenges...head on.”

“It is no longer realistic to ignore the fundamental differences between our two systems, and the impact that...the differences in those systems have on American national security,” Pompeo said in an address to a gala dinner in New York of the conservative Hudson Institute think tank.

Pompeo said President Trump had sounded the alarm about China from his very first day in office.

“Today, we’re finally realizing the degree to which the Communist Party is truly hostile to the United States and our values...and we are able to do this because of the leadership of President Trump.”

“The Chinese Communist Party is a Marxist-Leninist Party focused on a ‘struggle’ and international domination – we need only listen to the words of their leaders,” he said.

Pompeo said the United States was not seeking confrontation with China and wanted to see a transparent, competitive market-driven system there that was mutually beneficial.  He said the first steps towards that could be seen in phase one of the trade deal, which was close to being signed.

China’s ambassador to the United Nations said Pompeo’s criticism of Beijing’s human rights record wasn’t “helpful” for trade talks. China’s foreign ministry issued a statement labeling the comments as a vicious attack and that any attempt to smear China or obstruct its growth was doomed to fail.

North Korea: While President Trump plays up his personal rapport with Kim Jong Un, Kim and the regime have said in recent days they are losing patience, giving the U.S. until the end of the year to change its negotiating stance.

Pyongyang has also tested the limits of engagement with a string of missile launches, including two more ballistic missiles fired on Thursday, a third test-firing of a new “super large” multiple rocket launcher that it says expands its ability to destroy enemy targets in surprise attacks.  [Japan and South Korea said the missiles traveled more than 200 miles cross-country before landing in waters off the North’s eastern coast.]  Without a concrete arms control agreement, Kim has been allowed to continue producing nuclear weapons.

And although UN sanctions remain in place, some trade with China appears to have increased, as political relations between Beijing and Pyongyang have improved dramatically, experts say, Kim and Xi Jinping meeting several times.

Apparently there has been a huge influx of Chinese tourists over the past year which the Korea Risk Group (a North Korea monitoring group) said is a major source of cash for Kim.

The Korea Risk Group estimates that Chinese tourists have netted the regime up to $175 million, which isn’t chump change.  That’s more than North Korea was making from the Kaesong Industrial Complex – jointly operated with South Korea before it was shuttered in 2016.  So this could be a reason why Kim is showing less interest these days in U.S. proposals.  It may also be why Kim himself seems to be obsessed with the condition of his resorts.

Additionally, the United Nations estimates the North Korean government has stolen as much as $2 billion through cyberattacks.

Russia: The Wagner Group is an organization of mercenaries linked to the Kremlin through its founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin, a businessman and close associate of Vladimir Putin who is best known as “Putin’s Chef” because of his catering business.

So this week, TASS reported that seven Wagner Group soldiers were killed in two separate shooting incidents involving Islamic State-linked insurgents in Mozambique’s northern province this month.

According to TASS and the Moscow Times, four of the Russian soldiers were beheaded, in yet another example of ISIS’ global reach.

But Moscow is extremely sensitive as to the existence of the Wagner Group and its operations.  Earlier this fall, from 10 to 35 Wagner mercenaries were killed while fighting in Libya, per various reports.  Wagner has also been fighting in Syria alongside President Assad.  In 2018, Wagner Group fighters were involved in a battle with U.S. special forces that resulted in up to 300 Russian deaths.

Meanwhile, Norway said this week it discovered 10 Russian submarines heading for the Atlantic Ocean in the biggest operation since the Cold War.  Eight nuclear and two diesel submarines left bases near Murmansk last week and entered the Norwegian Sea, Norway’s military intelligence agency said. 

“Russia wants to say that ‘this is our sea, we can do this.  We are able to reach the United States.’ They want to test the West’s ability to detect and handle this,” the intelligence agency said.

THE RUSSIANS ARE COMING!  THE RUSSIANS ARE COMING!  [One of the better films of its era.]

Ukraine: Yes, we all know there is a problem with corruption in Ukraine and the International Monetary Fund has delayed a bailout for the nation because it is worried President Volodymyr Zelensky won’t recoup billions of dollars allegedly looted from banks – including one once controlled by a close supporter.

The IMF told Zelensky he must aggressively pursue the missing money to deliver on his promise to clean up a financial system riven with fraud, money laundering and theft.

Ukraine vows to allay the IMF’s fears and recover the missing bank deposits.  The governor of the central bank told the Wall Street Journal that he hopes to secure new IMF credit by the end of the year.  The country needs more funds to help it get through a series of debt repayments coming due in the months ahead.

The IMF is holding up its next set of loans until it is convinced Zelensky’s government will aggressively try to recoup an estimated $15 billion stolen from more than 100 banks, including PrivatBank, Ukraine’s largest financial institution.

While President Trump has expressed his desire for Ukraine to investigate Joe Biden and matters related to the 2016 presidential election, the IMF is focused on the country’s troubled financial sector.

Prior IMF moves have helped stabilize Ukraine’s currency and economy, which is growing at a 3% annual clip, while inflation has been reduced to the single digits after peaking at 50% in 2015.

Chile: As I noted last time, the mass demonstrations against the government here came out of nowhere and have now led to the cancellation of two big summits that were to be held in Santiago, including the APEC summit where Presidents Trump and Xi were slated to sign a trade deal.

The protests have been prompted by inequality and rising living costs, with extensive violence in Santiago bringing the city to a halt at times.

At least 18 have died in the unrest, with the arrest of 7,000, prosecutors said.  Chilean businesses have lost more than $1.4 billion.  President Sebastian Pinera, a billionaire businessman, has scrambled to react to the crisis, pledging worker-friendly economic reforms and dismissing his entire cabinet.  Pinera’s approval rating has sunk to 14%, according to a poll published last weekend by the local daily La Tercera. 14% is the lowest for a Chilean leader since the days of dictator Augusto Pinochet.

Thursday, the U.S. State Department warned that it had seen indications of Russian “influence” on recent unrest in Chile, a senior official saying there were “clear indications” people were taking advantage of the unrest and “skewing it through the use and abuse of social media, trolling.”

Russia has denied it interferes in other countries’ internal affairs...cough cough...cough.

Argentina: Center-left opposition candidate Alberto Fernandez was elected president in a vote dominated by economic concerns; Fernandez securing more than the 45% needed to win, beating conservative incumbent Mauricio Macri.  The vote was held amid an economic crisis that has left a third of Argentina’s population in poverty. 

Fernandez picked up about 48% to Macri’s 41%, 45% being needed to avoid a run-off.  Good luck.

Ethiopia:  Recently, Prime Minster Abiy Ahmed was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.  Last weekend, the New York Times reported that protests in the capital of Addis Ababa resulted in the deaths of 67 people, with Abiy coming under harsh criticism over his silence, while he remained at a summit of African leaders in the Black Sea resort of Sochi, Russia.

Well, this is rather pitiful...but notice where the summit was held.  #RussiaStrong

Random Musings

--Presidential tracking polls....

Gallup: 39% approval of Trump’s job performance, 57% disapproval; 87% of Republicans approve, 34% of Democrats (Oct. 1-13...we should receive an important new poll next week that reflects the impeachment inquiry as well as the death of Baghdadi).
Rasmussen: 45% approve, 54% disapprove...just a two-point bump in this one from Baghdadi.

A new AP/NORC poll found that 42% of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of the job, 56% disapprove, though virtually all of this survey was taken before the president announced the killing of Baghdadi.

Overall, 61% of Americans say Trump has little or no respect for the country’s democratic institutions and traditions, an issue that strikes at the heart of the impeachment inquiry, and whether Trump sought a foreign government’s help for personal political gain.

59% disapprove of how he’s handling foreign policy.

A new Washington Post/ABC News national poll finds that post-Baghdadi’s demise, 44% say Trump “is a strong leader,” little different from the 48% who said that at the start of the year.  A separate question finds roughly twice as many Americans saying the Trump administration’s policies have made the United States less respected, rather than more respected, around the world, 54% vs. 28% - views similar to a January Post/ABC poll in which 51% said Trump’s policies had damaged the country’s reputation.

This poll also finds 44% saying the U.S. withdrawal will “weaken” ongoing U.S. efforts against the militants, though slightly more say it will either “make no difference” (37%) or “strengthen” (12%) anti-Islamic State efforts.

Let me just say that those in the latter two camps represent what truly scares me every day.  The vast majority of Americans know nothing about foreign policy and current affairs.  We are going to pay a price for that...and let’s face it, it starts with what our kids are taught in school...or rather what they aren’t.

--In a national USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll, Joe Biden’s lead in the Democratic field was cut in half, backed by 26% of likely Democratic primary and caucus votes in the survey, Elizabeth Warren second at 17%, followed by Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders at 13% and Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 10%.

Biden held an 18-point lead over Warren in this poll back in late August.

--In a New York Times/Siena College poll of likely Democratic caucusgoers in Iowa, Warren leads with 22%, followed by Sanders at 19%, Mayor Pete 18% (wow) and Biden 17%.

Then you have to go all the way down to Klobuchar 4%, Harris 3%, Yang 3%.

--In a new CNN poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire of likely voters in the first-in-the-nation Democratic presidential primary, Sanders leads with 21%, followed by Warren at 18%.  Biden is at 15%, with Pete Buttigieg picking up 10%.

Behind these four are three with 5% each – Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, Sen. Amy Klobuchar and businessman Andrew Yang.  Kamala Harris was at just 3%. 

--In a Morning Consult/Politico survey testing the hypothetical Election Day matchup of Joe Biden and President Trump, Biden leads the president by five, 41% to 36%, among nearly 2,000 registered voters, which is about half the 11-point lead the former vice president had in a June survey conducted before the Democrats’ first debate.

Trump gained among women in the latest poll, trailing Biden by 11 points, compared to a 20-point gap in June, according to the survey.

But overall, only 43% approve of his job performance while 54% disapproved.

--Elizabeth Warren proposed $20.5 trillion in new spending through huge tax increases on businesses and wealthy Americans to pay for “Medicare for all,” laying out details today that pose political risks for her candidacy, though she’ll emphasize she is not raising taxes on the middle class to pay for her health care plan.

Warren was under pressure from her rivals to give it up, as they say, and now she has to sell voters on a tax-and-spend plan that as the New York Times describes, “rivals the ambitions of the New Deal and the Great Society while also defending it against both Democratic and Republican criticism.”

Under Warren’s plan, employer-sponsored health insurance – which more than half of Americans now receive – would be eliminated and replaced by free government health coverage for all Americans, a rather drastic shift.

A spokeswoman for the Biden campaign called it “unrealistic” and “mathematical gymnastics” that hides the simple truth it is impossible to pay for such a plan without middle-class tax increases.

--Kamala Harris said she was trimming staff and restructuring her struggling 2020 campaign to focus more on a make-or-break effort in Iowa, according to a campaign memo obtained by Reuters.  Harris, who has been slipping in the polls for three months after making an initial splash in the first debate, is redeploying field staff from New Hampshire, Nevada and California.

It’s over for the senator.  All about my girl, Amy K., sports fans.

--What’s this? Beto O’Rourke dropped out this afternoon.  All you needed to know is his name was nowhere to be found above.

--One of the least likeable figures to come out of Trump World, George Papadopoulos, filed paperwork to run for the congressional seat now formerly held by Rep. Katie Hill (D) who gave her farewell speech in the House on Thursday.

Why this guy thinks people would actually vote for him I’ll never know.

Speaking of Ms. Hill, there was something about her I kind of liked.  I could see why House Speaker Nancy Pelosi targeted Hill for a leadership position among the Democrats.

But my thoughts were strictly from seeing her on TV, and I like most casual observers was rather surprised to read some of the allegations that surfaced over an affair she had with a staff member, a violation of House rules.

And then things exploded when certain salacious photos were released and now Ms. Hill is out.

--Thomas L. Friedman / New York Times

“If America’s worst enemies had spent time designing a plan to erode our greatest strengths, they could not have done better than what some of our fellow citizens are doing to the country every day for short-term financial or political gain.

“Prominent figures in government, politics and commerce are behaving in ways that are so destructive of the core institutions and norms that underpin our democracy, one can only assume that they take the country’s stability as a given – that they can abuse and stress it all they want and it won’t break.

“They are wrong.  We can break America, and right now we’re on our way there.  Not in the Cold War, not during Vietnam, not during Watergate did I ever fear more for my country.

“This moment ‘is like Wall Street before the financial crisis, when everyone just took for granted that the system was forever stable,’ remarked Gautam Mukunda, research fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School and author of ‘Indispensable; When Leaders Really Matter.’

“ ‘So they kept taking bigger and bigger risks and pushing it harder and harder – until they pushed too hard and it crashed and the government had to step in and rescue everyone. If they keep acting like this, Trump and his allies will keep getting short-term wins until the system crashes. Only there won’t be any government to step in and rescue them, because they’ll have broken it – and the country along with it.’

“What am I talking about?  I’m talking about a president willing to sink to banana republic governing norms, including withholding aid to Ukraine to compel its leadership to investigate his political rival.

“I’m talking about Republican lawmakers who know that the president’s Ukraine machinations are indefensible and impeachable, particularly after Tuesday’s disclosures by Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman, the top Ukraine expert on the National Security Council, that he personally heard President Trump appeal to Ukraine’s president to investigate Joe Biden....

“In attacking all the diplomats, intelligence officers and civil servants who have stepped forward, at great professional risk, to bear witness against Trump, they are attacking the people who uphold the regulations – and provide the independent research and facts – that make our government legitimate and the envy of people all over the world, where many people have to bribe government workers for service.

“And, finally, there’s the internet barons who for too long ignored the weaponization of social media, which is turning our free press into a house of mirrors, where citizens can no longer cognitively discern fact from fiction and make informed judgments essential for democracy.

“I watch it all and wonder: ‘Are you really doing that?  Do you all go home at night to some offshore island where the long-term damage you’re doing to America doesn’t matter?’

“And what’s even more frightening is that there are now so many incentives in place in media and politics – from gerrymandering to unlimited campaign contributions to data systems that can ever more perfectly define us, divide us and subdivide us – to ensure that these people will keep on hammering our system until they smash it to pieces.

“Look at Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg, who was questioned last Wednesday at a House hearing by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.  A.O.C. was trying to grasp why Zuckerberg thinks it’s O.K. for politicians to run political ads that contain obvious lies, as the Trump campaign has already done in a Facebook ad about Biden viewed by some five million Facebook users.

“This is all about money for Zuckerberg, but he disguises his motives in some half-baked theory about freedom of the press – so half-baked that he couldn’t explain it even when he knew he would be asked about it by a congressional committee. Read it and weep:

A.O.C.: “Could I run ads targeting Republicans in primaries saying they voted for the Green New Deal?”

M.Z.: “Can you repeat that?”

A.O.C.: “Would I be able to run advertisements on Facebook targeting Republicans in primaries saying they voted for the Green New Deal?  If you’re not fact-checking political advertisements, I’m trying to understand the bounds here of what’s fair game.”

M.Z.: “I don’t know the answer to that off the top of my head.”

A.O.C.: “Do you see a potential problem here with a complete lack of fact-checking on political advertisements?”

M.Z.: “Congresswoman, I think lying is bad. I think if you were to run an ad that had a lie, that would be bad.  That’s different from it being – in our position, the right thing to prevent your constituents or people in an election from seeing that you had lied.”

A.O.C.: “So you won’t take down lies or you will take down lies? It’s a pretty simple yes or no.”

“M.Z.: “Congresswoman, in most cases, in a democracy, I believe people should be able to see for themselves what politicians they may or may not vote for are saying and judge their character for themselves.”

“Yeah, right, as if average citizens are able to discern the veracity of every political ad after years of being conditioned by responsible journalism to assume the claims aren’t just made up.

“Just once I’d like to see Zuckerberg look into the camera and say: ‘I will take Facebook stock down to $1 if that is what it takes to ensure that we’re never again an engine for the perversion of democracy in any country, starting with my own.  Facebook is not going to accept any more political ads until we have the resources to fact-check them all.’

“I doubt he’ll do that, though, because his priorities are profits and power, and he seems quite ready to hurt American democracy to get them.”

--We note the passing of former North Carolina Senator Kay Hagan, who died at the all-too-early age of 66.  What’s scary is that Ms. Hagan died Monday of encephalitis, or brain inflammation, which was caused by the Powassan virus, the rare tick-borne virus.

Kay Hagan always struck me as being a good person.  She was born in Shelby, North Carolina, a community I am most familiar with (Dr. Bob B., a frat Bro, and Todd N., an old friend from the brokerage business, hailed from there), and after earning her undergrad degree from Florida State, Hagan earned a law degree from Wake Forest.

My thoughts and prayers to her family.

--Former U.S. Rep. John Conyers died. He was 90.  Conyers was one of the longest-serving members of Congress whose resolutely liberal stance on civil rights made him a political institution in Washington and back home in Detroit despite several scandals.

Known as the dean of the Congressional Black Caucus, which he helped found, Conyers became one of only six black House members when he won his first election by just 108 votes in 1964. It was the start of more than 50 years of election dominance.

But his wife once went to prison for taking a bribe, and Conyers became the first Capitol Hill politicians to lose his job in the torrent of sexual misconduct allegations sweeping through the nation’s workplaces.  He denied the allegations but eventually stepped down.

This wasn’t one of the better legislators around and he was a perfect example of the need for term limits.

--Deaths from heart failure are surging, the death rate from same rising 20.7% between 2011 and 2017 and is likely to keep climbing sharply, according to a study published Wednesday in the journal JAMA Cardiology.

The rapid aging of the population, together with high rates of obesity and diabetes in all ages, are pushing both the rate and number of deaths from heart failure higher, the study said.

--I’m sorry but I was really ticked off when President Trump tweeted a mocked-up photo of him presenting a medal to the hero U.S. Army dog who helped chased down Baghdadi.

The Belgian Malinois (“Conan” we’re told) is still in theater and back on the job, the Pentagon said.

To me it’s just inexcusable to show anything fake about this.  Plus what’s rich is that President Trump hates dogs.

But ‘Dog’, for good reason, remains No. 1 on my proprietary All-Species List.

--And with regards to the fire that threatened the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, Calif., we’ve learned we have to thank some unlikely heroes.  Goats.

The Library has been using goats to graze on vegetation near the property to eat the brush around the perimeters to create a fire break.

The Ventura County Fire Department actually brings hundreds of goats every May to eat the brush and a spokeswoman for the department said Wednesday, “The firefighters on the property said that the fire break really helped them because as the fire was coming up that one hill, all the brush had been cleared, basically,” she said.

Patti Davis, however, penned some of the following in a Washington Post op-ed as she watched the fire threaten her father’s library, and wondered “if the California of my childhood is gone for good.”

“We used to have winters when it would rain for days and days; there would be thunderstorms at night that would sometimes last for an hour.  My brother and I would climb into our parents’ bed, along with the dog, and hide under the covers when loud thunderclaps rattled the windows.  After the rains, hillsides were so green they looked like paintings.  In the wildest places, the grasses grew long and rippled in the wind.  Watching them was hypnotic.  Now, when they do arrive, they are a news story....

“California is, of course, not the only region that is being affected by climate change. But it’s the one I’m thinking about now, because it’s my home, and it’s on fire.

“When President Trump took office, we were already running out of time to save this Earth. He has not just stalled any future efforts, he has reversed the progress that was made, proving that his cruelty is not just limited to human beings, it spreads out to the entire planet.  He has called climate change a hoax; he has even called it bulls---.  He has made absurd comments about raking forests to prevent fires and makes it a point to boycott any global meeting on climate change.  He is dangerous on so many fronts, but it’s important that we look at the danger he poses to this fragile blue ball we call Earth.

“But Trump is only part of the story. Generations of neglect and greed have altered the balance of our planet, set us on a path to a future that’s frightening.... Whether from floods or hurricanes or fires, we are left staring at the damage inflicted by our past lack of concern for protecting the Earth.

“As of now, the buildings that hold my father’s legacy are untouched by flames.  But we all have a legacy in this life.  Putting America on the path of trying to save this Earth would be a good one for all of us to aspire to.  Electing a leader who sees that as his or her legacy is more important than ever.”

I don’t agree with every word of this last paragraph, but if anyone deserves a platform this week it’s Patti Davis.

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Pray for the men and women of our armed forces...and all the fallen.

God bless America.

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Gold $1516
Oil $56.10

Returns for the week 10/28-11/1

Dow Jones  +1.4%  [27347]
S&P 500  +1.5%  [3066*]
S&P MidCap  +1.2%
Russell 2000  +2.0%
Nasdaq  +1.7%  [8386*]

*New high

Returns for the period 1/1/19-11/1/19

Dow Jones  +17.2%
S&P 500  +22.3%
S&P MidCap  +19.3%
Russell 2000  +17.9%
Nasdaq  +26.4%

Bulls 54.2
Bears 17.8

Have a great week.

Brian Trumbore

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