Week in Review

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Week in Review

11/23/2019

For the week 11/18-11/22

[Posted 9:30 PM ET, Friday]

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Edition 1,075

In an unbelievable nearly hour-long diatribe on “Fox and Friends” this morning, President Trump once again unleashed a stream of falsehoods and braggadocio. 

“If it weren’t for me Hong Kong would have been obliterated in 14 minutes.  (Chinese President Xi Jinping’s) got a million soldiers standing outside of Hong Kong that aren’t going in only because I asked him please don’t do it, you’ll be making a big mistake, it’s going to have a tremendous negative impact on the trade deal and he wants to make a trade deal,” Trump said.

“Look, we have to stand with Hong Kong, but I’m also standing with President Xi.  He’s a friend of mine.  He’s an incredible guy.  We have to stand.  But I’d like to see them work it out, Okay?  We have to see them work it out.  But I stand with Hong Kong, I stand with freedom, I stand with all of the things that we want to do.

“But we also are in the process of making the largest trade deal in history and if we could do that that would be great… If it weren’t for me thousands of people would have been killed in Hong Kong right now and you wouldn’t have any riots you’d have a police state,” said our president.

Trump also claimed China had lost “$30 or $35 trillion” in wealth, though it’s not clear if he was referring to GDP, market valuation, or some combination thereof.  Anyway, this was up from the “$25 trillion” figure he was touting last week.

This is what drives me up the freakin’ wall.  Do you know what the total value of the Chinese stock market is?  As of Thursday, according to the Financial Times, about $6.1 trillion.  The last two+ years, China’s key Shanghai Composite index is down about 8% since Trump’s inauguration, and up about 15% to 16% this year.  China’s economy, whether you believe the numbers or not, has also been growing during the last three years, despite a big slowdown…a slowing of ‘growth.’

My point being, how can the president get away with such garbage?  Well we know why, and that’s what depresses the hell out of me. 

Trump also said “Japan was buying $40 billion of U.S. farm product.”  Now maybe he mixed up Japan with China, and Trump’s false claim that China is buying $40bn as part of a phase one trade deal.  It’s just not factual.

Trump then touted his tremendous trade deal with South Korea.  I told you on day one this was a total scam.  American car companies selling into the South Korean market saw their quota increase from 25,000 cars a year to 50,000.  Do you know what Ford Motor Co. sold in Korea last year?  Try under 11,000.  Do you know what Ford/Lincoln will sell in Korea this year?  Under 11,000, I’m guessing (a very educated guess after examining some preliminary figures).

But the new trade deal with Seoul, we are told, is a big win for the U.S.!  It just goes on and on.   

So we had the second week of hearings on impeachment, and Ambassador  Gordon Sondland said of the White House visit by Ukrainian President Zelensky that was in the works, it was conditioned on Ukraine launching investigations that could be politically helpful to Trump.

“Was there a quid pro quo?” Sondland asked.  “As I testified previously, with regard to the requested White House call and White House meeting, the answer is yes.”

But Sondland’s overall testimony was a mess and he said he did not initially understand that U.S. military aid to Ukraine was being held to increase pressure on Zelensky.

So then today, President Trump, in the “Fox and Friends” call, stepped all over himself again when he said of the July 26 cellphone call from a Kiev restaurant with Sondland that David Holmes, a U.S. embassy official in Ukraine, overheard, “I guarantee you that never took place.  That was a total phony deal.”

Trump also said, of course, he had spoken with Ambassador Sondland “a few times…I hardly know him, OK?”

And we learned the president was upset at former Ambassador Marie Yovanovitch because she didn’t hang his picture on the wall in the embassy in Kiev, though there is a question as to whether the picture was even available because Trump waited nearly nine months to take the thing.

At least this week, Fiona Hill, President Trump’s former Russia adviser, brought some sanity and clear-thinking to the proceedings, urging lawmakers in the House of Representatives not to promote “politically driven falsehoods’ that cast doubt on Russia’s interference in the 2016 U.S. election.

“This is a fictional narrative that has been perpetrated and propagated by the Russian security services themselves,” said Hill, who served until July as the director for European and Russian affairs at the National Security Council.

“Right now, Russia’s security services and their proxies have geared up to repeat their interference,” Ms. Hill said.  “We are running out of time to stop them.  In the course of this investigation, I would ask that you please not promote politically driven falsehoods that so clearly advance Russian interests.”

Both Hill and David Holmes joined the host of officials who have now testified that the 2016 election investigation and another of Joe Biden were conditions for Ukraine obtaining a White House meeting that Mr. Zelensky sought.  Holmes said he concluded that military aid was held up for the same reason.  Both referenced former national security adviser John Bolton, who described the exchange of investigations for an Oval Office meeting to Ms. Hill as a “drug deal” and who told Mr. Holmes the release of military aid depended on whether Mr. Zelensky could “favorably impress” President Trump.

But on the issue of the 2016 election, the president and some of his more fanatical followers, such as Rep. Devin Nunes, have clung to the idea that intervention came from Ukraine.

“What you have seen in this room over the past two weeks is a show trial, the planned result of three years of political operations and dirty tricks, campaigns waged against this president,” Nunes said near the end of the hearing.

Wednesday, Vladimir Putin himself said, “Thank God no one is accusing us of interfering in the U.S. elections anymore.  Now they’re accusing Ukraine.”

White House spokesman Hogan Gidley said in a statement Thursday night: “President Trump wants to have a trial in the Senate because it’s clearly the only chamber where he can expect fairness and receive due process under the Constitution.

“We would expect to finally hear from witnesses who actually witnessed, and possibly participated in corruption – like Adan Schiff, Joe Biden, Hunter Biden, and the so-called Whistleblower, to name a few,” Gidley said.

Adam Schiff, in wrapping up the hearings Thursday said: “There is nothing more dangerous than an unethical president who believes they are above the law.”

This was a long week.  It was a particularly long one for yours truly because I had major computer issues since Monday morning…and still do. 

But I feel like the impeachment hearings, while further dividing the country, were a necessary exercise.  I have held back on telling you my own opinion all this time, but if I had given one back in September, it would have been for censure, which would have still required hearings but not at the level, and intensity, we had.

It is disturbing how Republicans continue to do Vladimir Putin’s own dirty work, and that of his intelligence agencies, trumpeting his propaganda. 

The facts of the case are not in dispute.  Trump wanted an investigation into a political rival, confirmed by witness after witness, and through Trump’s own words, or those of his aides, the last few months.

I also recognize, though, that while a timeline of the evidence is overwhelming, the ‘base’ doesn’t care, and that is why I feel like censure was the only plausible remedy.

Now we have a timeline of a different kind.  November 2020 is a year away.  The Democratic primaries and caucuses commence in less than three months; the start of what is going to be a grueling battle for the nomination that could very easily end up in a brokered convention.

The House doesn’t come back from recess until Dec. 3, and thus there is little time before Christmas. 

For those wanting the likes of John Bolton, Mick Mulvaney, and Mike Pompeo to testify, good luck, though Bolton’s reappearance on Twitter today was curious.

There are a lot of bad guys in Washington, but there is only one president; only one who truly holds the future of our country in his hands with control of U.S. foreign policy.  Americans cannot allow such bad behavior to be normalized…but it is about to be.

Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman summed it up beautifully as he closed his testimony this week. 

“This is America…here ‘right’ matters.”

I’d add…until it doesn’t.

Editorial / Wall Street Journal (Thurs., after Gordon Sondland’s testimony)

“The House impeachment hearings roll on, but the most important news is how little new we are learning about the President and Ukraine.  The witnesses from the diplomatic and national-security bureaucracy are filling in some details – many of which are unflattering about how policy is made in this Administration – but none change the fundamental narrative or suggest crimes or other impeachable offenses.

“That  includes Wednesday’s testimony by Gordon Sondland, the U.S. Ambassador to the European Union who described what he saw and heard from May through September.  His account essentially confirms that Mr. Trump had a negative view of Ukraine, was reluctant to keep supplying U.S. aid, and asked Mr. Sondland and others to work with Rudy Giuliani to press Ukraine’s new President Volodymyr Zelensky to announce that he was opening an anti-corruption probe.

“ ‘The suggestion that we were engaged in some irregular or rogue diplomacy is absolutely false,’ Mr. Sondland said.

“In other words, the President was directing policy, as he has the right to do, and nearly everyone in security positions seemed to know about it.  As we’ve known since Mr. Trump released the transcript of his July 25 phone call with Mr. Zelensky, this may have been the least secret foreign-policy fiasco in memory.  We’re almost embarrassed as journalists that we didn’t know about it.

“The impeachment press is hyperventilating that Mr. Sondland finally nailed down the elusive quid pro quo with Ukraine, but that is far from clear.  ‘Was there a ‘quid pro quo?’’  Mr. Sondland said in his opening statement.  ‘With regard to the requested White House call and White House meeting [between Mr. Trump and Mr. Zelensky], the answer is yes.’

“But note that Mr. Sondland says nothing about aid to Ukraine being part of the quid, and under questioning later he said he merely ‘presumed’ there were preconditions for a Trump-Zelensky meeting.  He never heard that directly from Mr. Trump, and on one call with Mr. Sondland the President flatly rejected the idea.  We also know that on three separate occasions, including the July 25 phone call, Mr. Trump invited Mr. Zelensky to the White House without preconditions.

“Mr. Sondland also said, under questioning by Democratic counsel Daniel Goldman, that he wasn’t even sure if Mr. Giuliani cared about the result of any Ukraine investigation – only that Mr. Zelensky publicly declare that one had been opened.  ‘I never heard, Mr. Goldman, anyone say that the investigations had to start or be completed,’ Mr. Sondland said.  ‘The only thing I heard from Mr. Giuliani or otherwise was that they had to be announced in some form.’

“This isn’t a quid pro quo that comes close to meeting the definition of bribery.  It’s another case of Mr. Trump’s volatile policy-making based on personal impulse or prejudice, but it’s not an impeachable offense.

“On that score, readers who have lives to lead can save time by reading Senator Ron Johnson’s account. The Wisconsin Republican has taken a personal interest in Ukraine since he joined the Senate in 2011, and in a Nov. 18 letter to House Intelligence Members he explains what he saw and heard at the White House and on visits to Ukraine.

“Mr. Johnson related how he returned from Mr. Zelensky’s inaugural to brief M. Trump and discovered how hostile the President was to Ukraine.  Mr. Johnson supported military aid and thought Mr. Zelensky, as a newly elected President, could do much to reduce corruption. The Senator spent the next months working with  others, inside and outside the Administration, to change the President’s mind.

“Eventually he prevailed, and the aid was released on Sept. 11.  Mr. Johnson says Mr. Trump called him on Aug. 31 and told him, ‘Ron, I understand your position. We’re reviewing it now, and you’ll probably like my final decision.’  This matters because Democrats claim Mr. Trump released the aid only because they were on the impeachment trail.

“ ‘To my knowledge, most members of the administration and Congress dealing with the issues involving Ukraine disagreed with President Trump’s attitude and approach toward Ukraine,’ Mr. Johnson writes.  ‘Many who had the opportunity and ability to influence the  president attempted to change his mind.  I see nothing wrong with U.S. officials working with Ukrainian officials to demonstrate Ukraine’s commitment to reform in order to change President Trump’s attitude and gain his support.’

“But Mr. Johnson adds that officials cannot substitute their policy for the President’s and that impeachment is doing ‘a great deal of damage to our democracy’ – not least by making presidential phone calls with foreign leaders open to public disclosure.

“This is a political grownup talking. Like so many others since this idiosyncratic President was elected, Mr. Johnson has tried to steer Mr. Trump from his worst policy instincts.  Thank goodness they have, and certainly this Trumpian behavior is ripe for debate and voter judgment in 2020.

“Democrats might have advanced that cause with hearings and a censure resolution.  Instead they have unleased the dogs of impeachment without impeachable offenses.”

Editorial / Washington Post

“Gordon Sondland, the $1 million donor whom President Trump appointed as ambassador to the European Union, on Wednesday made two stunning statements to the House Intelligence Committee: Yes, there was a quid pro quo between Mr. Trump and the president of Ukraine; and ‘everyone was in the loop’ about it, including the president, the vice president, the secretary of state and the White House acting chief of staff.

“Mr. Sondland, a contributor to the Trump inaugural committee, offered new evidence for these conclusions, including email traffic with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, acting chief of staff Mick Mulvaney and other senior officials.  He described a Sept. 1 meeting before which he informed Vice President Pence of his conclusion that military aid to Ukraine would be held up until Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced investigations of a gas company linked to Joe Biden’s son and of Ukraine’s alleged interference in the 2016 election.

“The ambassador also made clear that Mr. Pompeo and Mr. Mulvaney are blocking the release of documents and testimony that would further confirm the pressure campaign – and likely implicate them personally.  One logical consequence of his testimony ought to be the release of the documents and the appearance before Congress of Mr. Pompeo, Mr. Mulvaney and Mr. Pence, along with other key actors named by Mr. Sondland.

“This is particularly true because Republicans harped on gaps in Mr. Sondland’s account and had the gall to cite the absence of documents as a reason for skepticism….

“Emails Mr. Sondland supplied back his testimony that Mr. Pompeo knew and approved of this seamy deal.  Moreover, Mr. Sondland testified that ‘based on my communications with Secretary Pompeo, I felt comfortable’ telling a senior aide to Mr. Zelensky that military aid also would likely be withheld until the investigations were announced.

“Notably, Mr. Sondland said he believed it was not necessary for Mr. Zelensky to actually carry out the investigations – only that he announce them.  Mr. Giuliani, after all, likely knew there was nothing to the allegations he was spreading about Joe Biden or Ukraine’s role in the election; he had been told that explicitly by the administration’s own special envoy to Ukraine. His aim, and that of Mr. Trump, was simply to tarnish Mr. Biden and the Democrats by having a foreign government lend credence to false charges.

“Mr. Sondland’s testimony produced a denial from Mr. Pence’s chief of staff and a deflection from Mr. Pompeo.  Congress, including Republicans, should insist on more.  Mr. Trump will not be exonerated from the serious charges laid out by Mr. Sondland by rhetoric from congressional Republicans.  If they actually believed the president is innocent, they would seek the relevant documents and sworn testimony of the top aides who now dodge accountability.”

Daniel Henninger / Wall Street Journal

“(The) Pelosi-Schiff impeachment project reveals what has gone so badly wrong in Washington.  The ‘resistance’ has degraded into an endless personal vendetta between Mr. Trump, Democrats and the media. The rest of us are onlookers to what looks like a blood feud between families in 13th-century Italy.

“The impeachment diverts attention from a more important issue that sits beneath the Ukraine narrative – to wit, Mr. Trump’s distant, increasingly isolationist attitude toward the world.  No matter which global problem involves already existing U.S. interests, his common denominator is to back off and let it fester.

“Ambassador Gordon Sondland’s Wednesday testimony makes clear that helping Ukraine defend itself was the point of all this internal effort.  That was settled Trump administration policy until Mr. Trump took to obsessing over Ukraine’s alleged involvement in the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign.  Then he began telling everyone: ‘They are all corrupt.  They are all terrible people.  I don’t want to spend any time with that.’

“Hong Kong is in a grand rebellion against being subsumed inside a Communist Party model that has controlled China since 1949.  But Mr. Trump has said little more about this historic struggle than, ‘I’m sure they’ll be able to work it out.’

“As to the imperative of getting a trade deal with China, Ronald Reagan negotiated over nuclear missiles with Russia while simultaneously saying, ‘Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall.’   Thirty years ago this month the Berlin Wall fell, freeing millions.

“Mr. Trump’s foreign policy – as it has evolved, and despite the sort of heroic efforts we now know administration officials made on behalf of Ukraine – has become more Rand Paul than Ronald Regan.

“The Ukraine episode should be a pretext for an election-year debate about the U.S. role in the world.  Instead, with all of Washington complicit, it’s a political kangaroo.”

Trump World

--My opinion of Mike Pompeo has gone from favorable when he first entered the administration to one of loathing.  And, boy, he has hurt himself, as we’ve learned more about his role in this mess.

Kathy Gilsinan / Defense One (The Atlantic)

“Mike Pompeo tried to stay out of it.  He tried to block certain State Department officials from testifying in the House impeachment inquiry.  He didn’t admit for days that he had listened in on the phone call at the heart of that inquiry, in which President Donald Trump asked Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to investigate a domestic political rival.  He’s referred to the hearings as ‘noise’ and been out of town a lot – both abroad and in Kansas.

“Today that effort fully collapsed.

“In explosive public testimony on Wednesday, Gordon Sondland, Pompeo’s own ambassador to the European Union, put the secretary of state right in the middle of the scandal.  Sondland confirmed not only that the president’s personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani insisted on a quid pro quo with the Ukrainians – a White House visit by Zelensky in exchange for announcing investigations into Burisma, a company where Joe Biden’s son served on the board, and into the 2016 election – but  that Pompeo himself was fully in the loop the whole time.

“ ‘We all understood that these prerequisites for the White House call and White House meeting reflected President Trump’s desires and requirements,’ Sondland testified, referring to the investigations.  He said he had updated Pompeo himself, via email, about his discussions in pursuit of those investigations.  ‘Everyone was in the loop.  It was no secret.’  And just like that, Pompeo’s intricate maneuvers to distance himself fell apart.

“Pompeo’s name has surfaced in testimony a few times already, but never like this.  Indeed, his role has been notably understated given that the entire inquiry centers on a foreign-policy matter – he is, after all, the nation’s chief diplomat, and if the president used his public office for personal gain in his dealings with Ukraine, he was squarely on Pompeo’s turf when he did so.  Yet as a succession of current and former State Department officials appeared before impeachment investigators, they did so in implicit defiance of Pompeo, who had condemned the entire process as unfair and banned some State officials from participating.

“But the inquiry was set to ensnare Pompeo anyway.  One of the first former officials to testify was Michael McKinley, a close counselor to Pompeo who resigned in protest over Pompeo’s treatment of staff.  Pompeo, McKinley testified, had failed to publicly defend Marie Yovanovitch, the former ambassador to Ukraine, from attacks on her character – not least by the president himself.  ‘The disparagement of a career diplomat doing her job was unacceptable to me,’ McKinley testified, referring to Trump’s remarks to Zelensky that she was ‘bad news.’  Yovanovitch, according to her own testimony, was pulled from her ambassadorship and told by a State Department official in the middle of the night to get on the next plane out of the country.

“Pompeo is now suffering an ironic fate as a key architect, during his own time in Congress, of the Benghazi hearings, when he grilled a different secretary of state about her own treatment of the diplomatic workforce.  In that case, Pompeo and others were seeking to prove Hillary Clinton’s negligence in the killing of four Americans, including the ambassador to Libya, in an attack on a U.S. complex in Benghazi.  Now Pompeo hasn’t been able to muster so much as a public statement in defense of Foreign Service officers being impugned by the president.

“Trump has kept up attacks on Pompeo’s workforce via Twitter. The president has dismissed the career diplomat who replaced Yovanovitch, William Taylor, as a Never Trumper.  Moreover, if Pompeo was betting that he could stay on the president’s good side by letting these attacks pass, he appears to have miscalculated: Trump has criticized Pompeo himself for hiring people like Taylor, and said of his secretary of state that ‘everybody makes mistakes.’

“Still, the criticisms of Pompeo’s role in the drama have generally concerned his treatment of his workforce and his refusal to aid the inquiry, rather than his conduct as it concerned U.S. policy toward Ukraine.  Testimony that Sondland, along with Giuliani and Ukraine Special Envoy Kurt Volker, were running a ‘rogue’ foreign policy outside of proper channels somewhat insulated the rest of Pompeo’s State Department.  Pompeo runs U.S. foreign policy, and this was something multiple officials testified was actually contrary to the stated policy.

“Sondland just blew up that narrative.  He testified that another diplomat coordinated with Giuliani at Pompeo’s explicit direction.  Sondland also said he kept Pompeo informed at virtually every step after Giuliani told the Ukrainians that a White House visit depended on an announcement of investigations.  At one point, Pompeo emailed Sondland to commend him: ‘You’re doing great work; keep banging away.’

“As Sondland claimed of Pompeo and many other top officials in his opening statement: ‘They knew what we were doing, and why.’

“That question – why – continues to drive the impeachment hearings, and will continue to haunt Pompeo.  As Sondland sat before the Intelligence Committee on Wednesday, Pompeo was in Brussels meeting with NATO counterparts.  He ignored shouted questions from reporters about what Sondland was saying, still trying to tune out the ‘noise’ back home.  But the noise will only get louder.”

--An ABC-Ipsos Public Affairs poll of Americans released Monday found 51% believe Trump should be impeached by the House and removed from office by the Senate.  That’s compared to 25% who said Trump did nothing wrong related to Ukraine, 13% who said Trump’s actions were wrong but he should neither be impeached nor removed, and 6% who said he should be impeached but not removed.  85% of Democrats said Trump should be removed from office and 65% of Republicans did not think the president had done anything to warrant impeachment.

[Seven in ten Americans think President Trump’s actions regarding Ukraine were “wrong.”]

A separate national poll released by the Institute of Politics at the Harvard Kennedy School, specifically of those voters ages 18 to 29, found 52% of all eligible youth voters and 58% of likely youth voters in the 2020 presidential general election believe Trump should be impeached and removed from office.  27% of all youth voters and 28% of likely general election voters disagreed that he should be impeached and removed.   The remaining said they did not know, didn’t care or declined to answer the question about impeachment.

The findings nonetheless show a stronger preference for Trump’s impeachment among young people than older voters.  It’s consistent with the leftward political shift of young voters, who supported Democratic candidates in record numbers during the 2018 midterm.

But since the election is going to come down to the battleground states, Trump can take heart from a Marquette University Law School Poll that has just 40% of Wisconsin registered voters saying the president should be impeached and removed from office, 53% saying he should not, which compares with a 44-51 split in October.  [Separately, Trump also led the big four Democratic candidates in head-to-head matchups in the state.]

--Kathleen Parker / Washington Post

“As the second week of the impeachment hearings began, Republicans reintroduced an old theme for the usual purposes: Everything is the media’s fault, and America wouldn’t be in this jam but for journalists being puppets of the Democratic Party.

“Such were the sentiments expressed by Rep. Devin Nunes (Calif.), the ranking Republican on the House Intelligence Committee, during his opening statement Tuesday morning.  Nunes was obviously trying to create a backdrop for the day’s testimony, which included such witnesses as an Iraq War combat veteran who was wounded in battle and an aide to Vice President Pence.  It’s much harder to demonize such highly respected individuals than it is to drag out the media for yet another lashing.

“If you had just tuned in from your interplanetary travels, however, you might have thought the media, not President Trump, was the subject of the impeachment inquiry.  It was stale bread.  Making an enemy of the media has long been a feature of Trump’s modus operandi.  From his earliest campaign days, the then-future leader of the free world created an enemy to divert attention from his more problematic escapades and as a target to use when needed….

“The only question remaining is whether Trump’s actions justify impeachment, the answer to which seems plainly partisan. Americans have had numerous opportunities over the past three years to ask how Republican elected officials could still support such a president.  Almost nostalgically, one recalls the days when, innocently, one would think: Surely, this time they’ll jump ship?

“Of course, they didn’t – and likely won’t this time for the simple reason that their constituents aren’t demanding it. And, by the say, they hate the media, too.

“Nunes’ blame-the-media tactic, however, should be seen for what it was – a desperate act in the face of credible, damning testimony.

“For an alternative media narrative, one might entertain the possibility that when, say, a conservative columnist agrees with the Democrats, they might both be right.”

--After President Trump called “Fox News Sunday” host Chris Wallace “nasty & obnoxious” following Wallace’s intense interview with House Minority Whip Steve Scalise, Fox’s “Your World” host Neil Cavuto fought back.

Journalists “aren’t entitled to praise you.  We are obligated to question you, and to be fair to you,” said Cavuto.  “We will.  Even if it risks inviting your wrath.  You  are free to rage.  All we are free to do is report and let the viewers decide.”

“What makes something fake news?” asked Cavuto.  “I would assume if the news being reported is fake or wrong and the person presenting that news knows it is fake or wrong, that is bad.”

“But what if the news being reported is accurate, the facts are good, they just sound bad?” he said.  “My colleague Chris Wallace has discovered again the president doesn’t distinguish.”

Cavuto reminded Trump that he is “not the first president to say the media has it out for you. No less than press darling John F. Kennedy himself had his moments with the media.”

“We can’t please all,” he added.  “The best we can do as journalists is to be fair to all, including you, Mr. President.  That’s not fake doing that, what is fake is not doing that, what is fake is saying Fox never used to do that.  Mr. President, we have always done that.”

During Wallace’s interview with Scalise, Scalise said Trump was only concerned about corruption in Ukraine, whereupon Wallace pointed out that Trump never used the word “corruption” in his July 25 phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

When Scalise said the call only involved Trump and Zelensky, Wallace said, “a dozen people listened in on the phone call and a number of them were immediately upset.”

--Gerald Seib / Wall Street Journal

“To state the obvious, impeachment could hurt President Trump’s chances at reelection, even if he survives a Senate trial, if undecided voters conclude that something is rotten at the heart of his conduct.  Or it actually may help him by further energizing his base and convincing some wavering voters he has been wronged.

“Or, as seems entirely possible in our hyper-divided political state, impeachment may make no difference at all, merely driving voters deeper into the corners where they already reside and splitting the few who remain in the center of the ring.  In any of those scenarios, though, one thing is certain: Important American institutions are being damaged right now – damage that will take years to repair and that should be worrisome to Americans of all persuasions.

“Institutions are important to any society, and particularly to a democratic one, where they provide continuity, expertise and the ballast needed to keep government moving smoothly even amid swirling political currents.  Their purpose isn’t to protect politicians or parties but basic American interests.   And right now, important institutions are taking body blows.”

Mr. Seib cites the foreign service, the House Intelligence Committee, the FBI and the impeachment process.  All have been harmed…all very important.

--President Trump intervened in three cases involving war crimes accusations last Friday, issuing full pardons to two soldiers and reversing disciplinary action against a Navy SEAL despite opposition raised by military justice experts and some senior Pentagon officials.

Kori Schake / Defense One

“This makes Trump the first commander in chief in memory to pardon American servicemen for violent crimes committed in uniform.  The justification can be found in a statement Trump made to NBC News in 2016: ‘You have to play the game the way they are playing the game.’  That is, the U.S. should operate the way terrorists operate.

“Being no different from or better than our enemies has not been the aspiration of previous presidents, nor of our military.  The United States has accrued numerous advantages by being better, more principled, and more trustworthy than its enemies.  Among those advantages are allies willing to have American bases on their territory and to participate in the wars we fight.  Being a principled and disciplined military that operates with clear ethical norms also serves the crucial purpose of helping veterans to reintegrate into civilian society and make their individual peace with the violence they have committed on America’s behalf.

“Perhaps the president was seeking to shore up military support, or remind civilians of his popularity with the military at a trying political moment.  Except that both the civilian and military leadership of the Department of Defense opposed the pardons.  Secretary of Defense Mark Esper, Secretary of the Army Ryan McCarthy, and senior military leaders advised against the pardons, worrying they would ‘damage the integrity of the military judicial system, the ability of military leaders to ensure good order and discipline, and the confidence of U.S. allies and partners who host U.S. troops.’  The secretary of defense described ‘a robust discussion’ with the president, wanting to clearly convey the department’s and his own personal disapproval of the pardons….

“The president chose to pardon the three on the second day of televised impeachment hearings in the House of Representatives, where career diplomats have been showcasing the integrity with which they carry out the public trust.  The day the pardons were issued was also the day that one of the president’s closest campaign aides, Roger Stone, was convicted on seven counts of witness tampering and lying to Congress….

“In any case, the president has yet again willingly used the military as a political tool to the detriment of the military as an institution.  Whatever political value these pardons serve for the president, they are bad for the American military and bad for its relationship with broader civilian society.”

But late today, U.S. Navy Secretary Richard Spencer said the Navy SEAL convicted of battlefield misconduct, Edward Gallagher, should face a board of peers weighing whether to oust him from the elite force, despite President Trump’s assertion that he not be expelled.  “I believe the process matters for good order and discipline,” Spencer told Reuters.

--Maureen Dowd / New York Times

“It’s laughable that Donald Trump was concerned about corruption in Ukraine.  Rather, the most corrupt president ever was determined to export his own corruption to Ukraine.

“The longtime civil servants made clear that history in Ukraine is still being written, that soldiers are dying in the ‘hot war’ between Russia and Ukraine and that subjugating U.S. policy to Trump’s petty, paranoid actions may yet deprive us of a valuable ally.

“Alluding to Rudy Giuliani and his indicted cronies, former Ukraine Ambassador Marie Yovanovitch said: ‘Ukrainians who preferred to play by the old corrupt rules sought to remove me. What continues to amaze me is that they found Americans willing to partner with them and working together, they apparently succeeded in orchestrating the removal of a U.S. ambassador.  How could our system fail like this?  How is it that foreign, corrupt interest could manipulate our government?’

“Because Republicans are now dupes to dictators and sleazy foreign businessmen.”

--Trump tweets:

“Our great Farmers will receive another major round of ‘cash,’ compliments of China Tariffs, prior to Thanksgiving.  The smaller farms and farmers will be big beneficiaries.  In the meantime, and as you may have noticed, China is starting to buy big again.  Japan deal DONE.  Enjoy!”

“Tell Jennifer Williams, whoever that is, to read BOTH transcripts of the presidential calls, & see the just released statement from Ukraine. Then she should meet with the other Never Trumpers, who I don’t know & mostly never even heard of, & work out a better presidential attack!”

“The Crazed, Do Nothing Democrats are turning Impeachment into a routine partisan weapon. That is very bad for our Country, and not what the Founders had in mind!!!!”

“Republicans & others must remember, the Ukrainian President and Foreign Minister both said that there was no pressure placed on them whatsoever.  Also, they didn’t even know the money wasn’t paid, and got the money with no conditions.  But why isn’t Germany, France (Europe) paying?”

[Ed. they are…according to David Holmes, four times more, collectively, than the U.S. has kicked in.]

“Dow hits 28,000 – FIRST TIME EVER, HIGHEST EVER! Gee, Pelosi & Schitt have a good idea, ‘let’s Impeach the President.’  If something like that ever happened, it would lead to the biggest FALL in Market History.  It’s called a Depression, not a Recession!  So much for 401-K’s & Jobs!”

Wall Street and the Trade War

The market finally paused after a string of up weeks, including seven straight for Nasdaq.  Trade uncertainty continues, though the impeachment hearings had zero impact.

The economic news was light, with October housing starts coming in less than expected, a 1.314 million annualized rate, while October existing-home sales were also a little shy of the Street’s forecast, but up 1.9% from September to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 5.46 million, which was actually encouraging according to the National Association of Realtor’s chief economist, Lawrence Yun, who cited historically-low interest rates (ditto mortgage rates), continuing job expansion, and higher weekly earnings.

The median existing-home price for all housing types was $270,900, up 6.2% from October 2018.  So we have 92 straight months of year-over-year gains.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow barometer for growth in the fourth quarter is still just 0.4%, though I hasten to add that for now, this number is an outlier, most economists putting Q4 GDP at around 1.5% to 2.0%.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the Paris-based research group, said in its quarterly report on the outlook for the global economy that it continues to see growth at the slowest pace since the financial crisis, but it doesn’t now expect any pickup next year.

“Things are not really moving,” said Laurence Boone, the OECD’s chief economist.  “What we are seeing is investment stalling, paving the way for growth to stay at this very low level.”  [You see that in the Eurozone numbers below.]

The OECD lowered its forecast for global economic growth in 2020 to 2.9% from the 3% it expected in September.

A separate report from the World Trade Organization on Thursday said members of the Group of 20 leading economies continued to impose restrictions on imports in the six months through October, with new measures affecting $460.4 billion of goods.  That was the second-highest figure for a six-month period on record.

Corporate executives across the world say they have no choice but to postpone some hiring and investment until the trade uncertainty lifts.

John Williams, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said in a speech recently, “It’s striking that in almost every corner of the world geopolitical tensions are threatening to put the brakes on growth.  The uncertainty created by current events is no doubt having a lasting effect on the economic conditions we’re experiencing today.”

One more…President Trump met with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the White House to discuss the economy.  Trump has repeatedly disparaged the Fed chief, calling him a “terrible communicator” and an enemy of the state.  But the president tweeted after the meeting was “very good and cordial.”  The two were joined by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.

“Everything was discussed including interest rates, negative interest, low inflation, easing, Dollar strength & its effect on manufacturing, trade with China, E.U. & others, etc.,” said Trump.

The Fed said in a statement that Powell emphasized the path of future monetary policy “will depend entirely on incoming information that bears on the outlook for the economy…(and that rate-setting decisions) are “based solely on careful, objective and nonpolitical analysis,” according to the Fed’s summary of the meeting.

Meanwhile, it is the same old, same old in the U.S.-China trade discussions.  For every piece of happy talk and an imminent agreement on Phase  One, we get a presidential tweet or pronouncement out of the White House, or a threatening word or two from Beijing, and who the heck knows.

I mean think of it.  It was back on Oct. 11 that Trump announced the two sides had agreed on a preliminary deal.

As I keep saying, though, whatever deal emerges is not going to be the greatest trade deal in history, as President Trump told his “Fox and Friends” audience this morning.  It will be minimal in scope and will not in any real way address the paramount issues of  IP theft and the transfer of technology, or real reforms on the part of the Chinese government, such as on subsidies.

Chinese President Xi Jinping said today that his nation wants to work toward a phase one agreement on the “basis of mutual respect and equality,” and therein lies a problem.  Donald Trump wants an edge, not equality, as he also reiterated in his television interview today.  He later told reporters at the White House, “The China deal is coming along very well.  The question is whether or not I want to make it.”

Xi said in a meeting with prominent international visitors, “We didn’t initiate this trade war and this isn’t something we want. When necessary, we will fight back, but we have been working actively to try not to have a trade war.”

Xi also said that while China planned to open up its financial markets, and the reforms set in motion will not stop, at the same time the nation needs to be careful to ensure its “financial sovereignty.”  [Code for ‘don’t expect any real change, sports fans.’]

“We are working to realize the Chinese dream of renewal of our nation,” said the dictator.  “It’s not a dream about hegemony, it’s not about replacing others.  We are just trying to restore our place and role in the world rather than reliving the humiliating days of the semi-colonial and semi-feudal era.”

Days  earlier, President Trump said China wasn’t “stepping up to the level that I want” in the negotiations amid growing doubts there will be an agreement before yearend.

Wednesday, China’s chief trade negotiator, Liu He, indicated he was “cautiously optimistic,” but I see little reason to be so, at least over the coming few weeks.  And we have a Dec. 15 deadline for another round of tariffs on consumer goods, like tablets, smartphones and other products from China.

And as I discuss in detail below, it didn’t help matters when the U.S. House of Representatives voted 417-1 for legislation supporting Hong Kong protesters that had been already unanimously approved in the Senate.  China has demanded President Trump veto it.  As of this afternoon, he had yet to sign it and instead appeared to link it to the trade deal.

Former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, a China expert, told the New York Times’ Andrew Ross Sorkin that even if the world’s two biggest economies reach a truce, their relationship is likely to worsen. 

Animosity between the two countries has merged “military prisms and ideas into economic policies,” Paulson said ahead of a speech at a Bloomberg event on the economy in Beijing.

“It should concern every one of us who cares about the state of the global economy that the positive-sum metaphors of healthy economic competition are giving way to the zero-sum metaphors of military competition.”

Paulson also worries China could sell its $1 trillion in U.S. debt, which could send Treasury yields sky high (in relative terms), which would shock the markets, and the economy.

Europe and Asia

We had flash readings for November from IHS Markit on economic activity in the eurozone (EA19), with the composite reading at 50.3 vs. 50.6 in October (50 the dividing line between growth and contraction); the manufacturing reading 46.6 vs. 45.9 last month, services 51.5 vs. 52.2.

The flash readings also break down Germany and France.

Germany’s comp was 49.2 vs. 48.9 in October, with manufacturing at 43.8 vs. 42.1, services 51.3 vs. 51.6.

France’s flash comp was 52.7, with manufacturing at 51.6, services unchanged at 52.9.

Chris Williamson / IHS Markit

“The eurozone economy remained becalmed for a third successive month in November, with the lackluster PMI indicative of GDP growing at a quarterly rate of just 0.1%, down from 0.2% in the third quarter.

“Manufacturing remains in its deepest downturn for six years amid ongoing trade woes, and November saw further signs of the weakness spilling over to services, notably via slower employment growth.

“Resilient jobs growth had provided a key support to the more domestically-focused service sector earlier in the year, but with employment now rising at its slowest pace since early-2015, it’s not surprising to see the service sector now also struggling.

“Tentative signs of life in the core eurozone countries of France and Germany are welcome news, as is an easing in the manufacturing downturn, but a fresh concern is that the rest of the region has slipped into decline for the first time since 2013.

“Business remains concerned by trade wars, Brexit and a general slowdown in demand, with heightened uncertainty about the economic and political outlook driving further risk aversion.”

In the UK, the flash composite for November was 48.5 vs. 50.0 in October, a 40-month low.  Manufacturing was 48.3 vs. 49.6, services 48.6 vs. 50.0.  Yes, it’s Brexit related.

Brexit: Speaking of which, the polls concerning the Dec. 12 special election normally come out over the weekend, so last Saturday and Sunday we had five surveys that I looked at, mostly from the leading newspapers, and Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservatives polled between 41% and 45%, with Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party at 28% to 33%.  The pro-EU Liberal Democrats received 11% to 15%, while Nigel Farage’s Brexit party was at 4% to 6%.

So all of the polls are pretty consistent.  Johnson’s problem is he still has to build a coalition, should these numbers stick.

The prime minister has been stressing that “all 635 Conservative candidates standing at this election, every single one of them, has pledged to me that if elected they will vote in Parliament to pass my Brexit deal so we can end the uncertainty and finally leave the EU,” he told the Telegraph newspaper in an interview.

Johnson also set out plans to end preferential treatment for European Union migrants.

“As we come out of the EU we have a new opportunity for fairness and to make sure all those who come here are treated the same,” Johnson said in a statement.

Turning to Asia…no big economic data points save for some flash readings on Japan’s PMIs for November.  The Comp was 49.9 vs. October’s 49.1, with manufacturing at 48.6 vs. 48.4, and the service sector at an improved 50.4 vs. 49.7.

Street Bytes

--Stocks registered slight losses on the week, but the winning streak was snapped nonetheless.  The Dow Jones lost 0.5% to 27875, while the S&P 500 declined 0.3%, ditto Nasdaq. 

I do have to add that Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund with Ray Dalio at the head, picked up a lot of publicity today when the Wall Street Journal reported the firm had placed a large bet the market would fall in the next six months…perhaps a sizable drop.

But it’s all of 1% of Bridgewater’s assets, so in the words of former NBA great Derrick Coleman, “Whoopty-damn-do.”

--U.S. Treasury Yields

6-mo. 1.58%  2-yr. 1.63%  10-yr. 1.77%  30-yr. 2.22%

The long end of the curve rallied some, the yield on the 10-year falling from 1.83% the week before.

--Charles Schwab Corp. is in talks to buy TD Ameritrade Holding Corp. in a deal that would reshape the discount-brokerage market.  The two were said to be close to a deal Thursday, with a likely value for TD Ameritrade of around $26 billion.

Schwab is the largest discount broker, while TD Ameritrade is No. 2, which means the merger is likely to receive scrutiny.

--Target Corp. posted another quarter of rising sales, touting its strategies to draw more shoppers and spending both in its stores and online.

Same-store sales rose 4.5% in the quarter ended Nov. 2, making over two years of consecutive  quarterly sales growth.  E-commerce sales rose 31% in the period, with most of that growth coming from same-day delivery or pickup, the company said.

Target CEO Brian Cornell said consumers continue to feel like spending, but that “We are starting to see the bifurcation of winners and losers” in retail.  There are losers like Kohl’s and J.C. Penney, but Amazon and Walmart logged strong recent gains.

Target has benefited from new in-house brands, store remodels and changes to how Target staffs those areas to offer better customer service, Cornell said.  The company raised its earnings-per-share outlook for the year as it expects stronger profits from selling higher-margin store-brand products and expands in categories such as beauty that tend to be higher-margin.

Target’s total revenue rose 4.7% in the quarter to $18.7 billion, up from $17.8 billion.

--The aforementioned Kohl’s saw its stock drop 19.5% after the department store lowered its profit guidance for the year.  Comp sales increased 0.4% from a year earlier in the quarter ended Nov. 2, after several quarters of declines.  But the increase was less than the Street expected, and the chain lowered its forecast.

--Macy’s reported better than expected earnings, but same-store sales fell 3.9%, while the company cut full-year sales and earnings guidance.

“After seven consecutive quarters of comparable sales growth, we experienced a deceleration in our third-quarter sales,” said CEO Jeff Gennette in a statement.  “Our third-quarter sales were impacted by the late arrival of cold weather” and weak international tourism.

Macy’s shares rallied 5% despite the poor outlook.

--Nordstrom tightened its earnings forecast for fiscal 2020 after fewer markdowns and digital sales helped earnings beat expectations in the third quarter, sending shares sharply higher, despite sales falling 4.1% at its full-price department stores.

--Home Depot’s shares fell 5.4%, after the home-improvement company cut expectations for sales growth. Same-store sales were up 3.6% in the quarter, below the 4.7% analysts were expecting, a big miss as these things go.  HD blamed the disappointing numbers on investments taking longer than anticipated to pay off.  The company is having trouble integrating its online business with its network of nearly 2,300 brick-and-mortar stores over the last few years.

Third-quarter sales at Home Depot rose 3.5% from a year earlier to $27.22 billion, posting net income of $2.77 billion compared with $2.87 billion a year ago.

--Home improvement rival Lowe’s Co. reported weaker-than-expected quarterly  sales on Wednesday but raised its adjusted full-year profit forecast and said it would close 34 Canadian stores early next year, part of CEO Marvin Ellison’s cost-cutting measures since he took the helm last summer.  Its shares rose nearly 4% on the move.

Lowe’s reported earnings that were better than expected, while sales declined 0.2%, missing consensus.  Same-store sales were up 2.2% in the quarter (3.0% in the U.S.), less than Home Depot’s 3.6%.

--President Trump accompanied Apple CEO Tim Cook to Austin and an Apple facility, where the president suggested that he might exempt Apple from an upcoming round of tariffs.

“We have to treat Apple on a somewhat similar basis as we treat Samsung,” he said.  Samsung is a South Korean electronics giant that has shifted its smartphone production out of China amid the trade war.

The administration has yet to give a definitive signal on whether it will proceed with another round of tariffs on consumer goods, like tablets, smartphones, laptops and other products from China on Dec. 15.

But Trump’s comments about excluding Apple would mean he was playing favorites and picking winners and losers.  Trump has vacillated between threatening Apple and holding it up as an example of how his policies are fueling American investment.  In July he tweeted his administration would deny Apple’s request for exemptions from the tariffs, saying they should instead make their products in America.

Which is why Mr. Cook, standing alongside, let Trump get away with many falsehoods as the president took some questions from reporters.

Such as the fact Trump was touring a six-year-old Flextronics plant that assembles the Apple Mac Pro as evidence of success for his presidency.  Tim Cook didn’t correct the president.

Trump later tweeted, “Today I opened a major Apple Manufacturing plant in Texas that will bring high paying jobs back to America.”

But the plant opened in 2013.  All about the tariffs.  Cook is no fool.

--Alphabet Inc.’s Google said Wednesday it plans to stop allowing highly targeted political ads on its platform, aiming to roll out the ban within a week in the U.K., in advance of the Dec. 12 election.  The ban will take effect in the European Union by the end of the year and in the rest of the world on Jan. 6, the company said.

Under Google’s new rules, political ads can only be targeted based on users’ age, gender, and  location at the postal-code level.  But advertisers would no longer be able to target political ads based on users’ interests inferred from browsing or search history.

But Google’s announcement is at odds with Facebook, which announced it would no longer fact-check ads from political campaigns.  Then Twitter announced it would no longer accept political ads and would impose targeting restrictions on cause-related advertising.

Google in a company blog post also clarified its policy on politicians making false claims, saying they wouldn’t be allowed on its platforms, consistent with the company’s broader prohibitions against misleading advertising.  But this means there has to be extensive fact-checking of political ads.

Facebook said on Wednesday it left the door open to more coming changes and “looking at different ways we might refine our approach to political ads,” according to a spokesman.

Digital political ad spending is expected to reach $2.9 billion in 2020, up from $1.4 billion in 2016, according to Borrell Associates Inc., a consulting firm.

--On one hand, Boeing Co. had a good week.  At the biennial Dubai Air Show, the company secured more deals for its grounded 737 MAX, breaking a five-month order drought for the plane, which has been grounded worldwide since March.

Kazakhsan’s Air Astana agreed on Tuesday to buy 30 MAX jets, and an undisclosed customer signed up for an additional 20.  Turkey’s SunExpress bought another 10 on top of an as yet to be delivered 32 planes already on order.

But Emirates Airline is reducing its order for the embattled 777X jet and buying the smaller 787 Dreamliner instead.  Emirates is still by far the biggest customer for the upgraded 777, with orders remaining for 126 planes.  But the airline has been frustrated by delays to the aircraft, so the airline said it is swapping orders for 30 of the 777Xs for 30 of Boeing’s 787s.  But the Dreamliner deal is $3.5 billion less than the value of the 777Xs that were canceled.

Now that Airbus has halted production of the A380 double-decker, the 777X is the biggest wide-body aircraft available to buy new.

Meanwhile, last weekend Boeing said it was up to the Federal Aviation Administration and its global counterparts to approve changes to the 737 MAX in the wake of two accidents, while the FAA told its staff to take whatever time was needed to review the grounded plane after Boeing said it expected the FAA to certify the 737 MAX in mid-December.

--T-Mobile U.S. Inc. said CEO John Legere will step down this spring, handing the top job to operating chief Mike Sievert.  The change comes after the Wall Street Journal reported Legere was in negotiations to take over as CEO of We Cos., the parent of WeWork.

WeWork said its global reduction in head count was underway, some 2,400 jobs, or 17% of its workforce.

--Tesla pitched a future vehicle on Thursday night, the “Cybertruck” – CEO Elon Musk’s name for his company’s new electric pickup, and when chief designer Franz von Holzhausen struck the truck’s steel exterior with a sledgehammer, there was no obvious effect.  But when he threw a metallic ball at the “shatterproof glass,” the windows, err, shattered.

The vehicle is immensely ugly and the shares fell hard today in response, 6%.

--Last weekend, HP Inc. rejected a $33 billion takeover offer from Xerox Holdings Corp. as too low, but the PC and printer maker made clear it is interested in discussing a deal to combine with its smaller rival.

HP’s board said Xerox’s unsolicited $22 a share offer significantly undervalues the company.  Xerox threatened to turn its bid into a hostile one unless the company agrees by next week to pursue a “friendly combination.”

--Hackers have been selling thousands of Disney+ accounts on the black market following the streaming service’s error-plagued launch.  Hacked accounts have appeared on the dark web for  as little as $3 a pop – less than the $6.99 monthly price of a Disney+ subscription – in the week since the site’s Nov. 12 debut.

Disney said the hacks likely stemmed from security issues that affected other companies, as it has seen no sign of a breach specific to the new service.  The company generally locks users’ accounts and asks them to reset their passwords if its systems spot suspicious login activity, it said.

--The Food and Drug Administration said in a news release it sent a warning letter to Greenbrier International Inc., which does business as Dollar Tree, outlining “multiple violations of current good manufacturing practices at contract manufactures used to produce Dollar Tree’s Assured Brand OTC drugs” and other products sold at Dollar Tree and Family Dollar stores.

In the Nov. 6 letter to Dollar Tree CEO Gary Philbin, the FDA identifies Chinese manufacturers that failed to test products and cited an example where “rodent feces (were) found throughout the manufacturing facility.”

Dollar Tree maintains that the items referenced by the FDA were “topical, not ingestible products.”

Dollar Tree said in a statement to CNBC: “We are committed to our customers’ safety and have very robust and rigorous testing programs in place to ensure our third-party manufacturers’ products are safe.”

The FDA is asking Dollar Tree to “provide a detailed plan to ensure you do not receive or deliver adulterated drugs in interstate commerce” and a plan to audit suppliers.

Now as a frequent shopper myself at Dollar Tree, for basic paper products (brand names), brushes, dish-washing liquid, toothpaste, soap, Campbell’s Soup, and such, I have warned you to always read the label and, especially in the case of dog food, never, ever buy anything manufactured in China. The dog food in particular is potentially poison.

I would also never buy any of the Assured OTC products, irrespective of the manufacturer on the label.

--General Motors overhauled the Chevrolet Corvette Stingray sports car, taking a big risk, moving the engine to the midsection from the front, but the move paid off as it was named MotorTrend’s Car of the Year on Monday.

The Kia Telluride was named MotorTrend SUV of the year, and the Ram heavy duty pickup was named Truck of the Year.

No awards for my Honda Civic.

Foreign Affairs

Iran: Tehran used a prolonged internet blackout to contain nationwide protests that posed the most serious threat to the regime in years.  President Hassan Rouhani said on Wednesday that demonstrations over higher fuel prices had been suppressed, but the government’s shutdown of the net made it difficult to assess the situation around the country, with Amnesty International saying at least 100 had been killed in five days of protests.

“The Iranian people have again succeeded in an historic test and shown they will not let enemies benefit from the situation, even though they might have complaints about the country’s management,” Rouhani said.

Tuesday, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said the protests had been a security matter, not a popular movement, and had been dealt with successfully.

Ali Vaez, an Iranian specialist at the International Crisis Group, told the Wall Street Journal that the protests appeared to be petering out owing to a decisive security crackdown.  The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it had detained key protest leaders, while there was a call for blood donations to deal with the scores injured.

Israel: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was indicted on bribery charges Thursday, imperiling the country’s longest-serving leader, as he prepares to fight for his personal and political future.

As long expected, Israel’s Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit, a one-time close aide to the prime minister, said Netanyahu would be charged with bribery, fraud and breach of trust in connection to three separate corruption probes.  Netanyahu allegedly traded official favors for flattering news coverage as well as gifts worth hundreds of thousands of dollars.

If convicted in the most serious case, the PM faces up to 10 years in prison; the lesser charges could result in 3-5 years in jail.

Mandelblit said in a televised speech: “The interests of the public dictates that they live in a state in which no man is above the law.  It was not my choice.  It was my duty.”

Netanyahu, in a blistering response, slammed the charges and the police, saying the actions amounted to “a coup against the prime minister.”

“They didn’t seek the truth.  They sought me out,” he said.  “There is one for others, and there is one law for Netanyahu.”

But the current interim government continues as the legal process could last potentially years, due to immunity.  Netanyahu could also work out a plea to stay in office.  He doesn’t have to step down unless he’s ultimately convicted.

Netanyahu’s plight is just one of Israel’s problems these days, as former military chief Benny Gantz failed to form a government by his Wednesday deadline, raising the likelihood of a third election in a year, which is why Netanyahu remains in power.

Gantz had 21 days to form a coalition, after Netanyahu failed to do so.  Gantz said Wednesday, “I appeal again to Netanyahu, Israel is more important and stronger than you, the choice of Israeli voters is stronger than any bloc.”

So now for the first time, Israel enters a three-week period whereby the 120 members of its parliament will attempt to find a majority to support either Gantz or Netanyahu again, or pick a third candidate to try to form a government.

The kingmaker is Avigdor Lieberman, who said this week that his Yisrael Beiteinu party wouldn’t back either Gantz’s Blue and White party, or Netanyahu’s Likud.  Lieberman doesn’t want to see a governing coalition led by Gantz that contains Israel’s Arab parties, while he has scorned the ultraorthodox parties that Netanyahu wants in a unity government.

Both Netanyahu and Gantz predicted their parties would win if a third vote was held.  Needing 61 seats to control the parliament, the Knesset, Gantz’s Blue and White won 33 seats, while Netanyahu’s Likud secured 32 in the last election.  Lieberman’s party won eight seats.

And then we had the issue earlier in the week where the Trump administration overturned a longstanding policy that considered settlements in the West Bank illegal, a favor to Netanyahu.

David Ignatius / Washington Post

“One more timber of the United States’ bipartisan foreign policy collapsed this week when Secretary of State Mike Pompeo reversed a 41-year State Department legal judgment that Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank were ‘inconsistent with international law.’

“Pompeo promoted this change in policy as a pragmatic acceptance of fact.  ‘What we’ve done today is we have recognized the reality on the ground,’ he said Monday.  He argued that the United States could help solve the Palestinian problem by ‘taking away this impediment, this idea that somehow there was going to be a legal resolution.’

“It’s hard to quarrel with Pompeo’s judgment that previous U.S. policy ‘didn’t work.’  Israeli settlements are now so numerous that it is unlikely any Israeli government (or any outside power) could remove them by force.  And it is also true that the inexorable advance of settlements, despite decades of U.S. and international protest, makes a two-state solution to the Palestinian problem much more difficult.

“But realpolitik comes with a cost, and not just in abandonment of legal or moral principles.  With this decision, the Palestinians are newly ratified as one of modern history’s biggest losers.  And why?  It’s in part because they relied on U.S. promises to reverse Israel’s acquisition of land by force after the 1967 and 1973 Arab-Israeli wars.  Nine successive administrations gave that same assurance, and it is now shown to have been hollow.

“This story has a harsh lesson: History is written by the victors.  Sometimes, lost causes really are lost.  Woe to the defeated.  The Palestinians can testify to that, as can, nearer to home, Native Americans.

“The United States was never entirely credible as a mediator in this conflict, given its close relationship with Israel.  But until Donald Trump, every recent U.S. president sought to broker negotiations for a Palestinian state.  That era now seems to have passed.  Trump has sided with the victors on key issues about the status of the West Bank, Golan Heights and Jerusalem.

“Pompeo spoke cheerily on Monday of finding ‘a political solution for this very, very vexing problem.’  But there is no evidence that Palestinians are prepared to ratify their defeat with a peace agreement that formally abandons the aspiration for meaningful statehood.

“As a journalist, I’ve been watching the story wind toward this dead end for 40 years…I’ve also watched a generation of Palestinian leaders botch their chances at statehood – demanding the perfect deal rather than accepting the good deal that was achievable.

“These Palestinian leaders preferred to keep their dignity rather than compromise.  They must have believed that, in the end, the Israelis would get tired and give in to their demands.  It hasn’t worked out that way….

“Over these decades, I’ve interviewed every Israeli prime minister since Menachem Begin and developed a strong affection for that country.  I’ve heard so many Israelis express the yearning for peace, and a disdain for the settlers who blocked progress, that I suspect there’s a deep sadness among many Israelis this week about Pompeo’s decision to abandon previous U.S. policy and reward the most intransigent of their fellow Israeli citizens….

“Pompeo doesn’t seem to realize it, but the United States is now implicitly endorsing a one-state solution – forcing Israel to make an agonizing decision about whether to deny full rights to the Arab residents of that state.  Perhaps Israelis will rebel against making this choice and revive the possibility of a Palestinian state.  Or perhaps Arabs, exhausted by this conflict, will induce Palestinians to accept defeat…and something less than statehood.

“As with the other pillars of the old international order that Trump is dismantling, I suspect the United States will miss the role of peacemaker more than it may imagine.  Reality on the ground can get ugly.”

Iraq: After killing at least four citizens in Baghdad Thursday, Iraqi security forces killed four more protesters there on Friday, while dispersing those blocking the country’s main port near Basra, as Iraq’s top Shiite cleric warned nothing but speedy electoral reforms would resolve the unrest.

Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani called today for politicians to hurry up.  “We affirm the importance of speeding up the passing of the electoral law and the electoral commission law because this represents the country moving past the big crisis,” Sistani’s representative said during a sermon in the holy city of Karbala.  Sistani holds massive influence in the country.  The cleric also repeated his view that the protesters had legitimate demands and should not be met with violence.

At least 330 have been killed since the protests started in early October.

Afghanistan: Two U.S. service members were killed when their helicopter crashed in Afghanistan, though preliminary reports said it was not caused by enemy fire.  This brings the number of U.S. deaths in the country this year to 19, not including three non-combat deaths.

Separately, two professors from the American University of Afghanistan, one of whom is an American citizen, were released from Taliban captivity Tuesday as part of a prisoner exchange for three Taliban commanders.

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani confirmed the deal and said he hoped the move would “pave the way for face-to-face” peace talks with the Taliban.

China / Hong Kong: Tuesday, Beijing issued withering criticism of a Hong Kong court decision to invalidate the local government’s ban on the public wearing of face masks, suggesting that the central government may take steps to override judicial rulings in the semiautonomous city that it considers unfavorable.

Last weekend was particularly violent as militant protesters barricaded themselves inside university campuses, fighting police in medieval fashion with catapults and bows and arrows, though the protests dwindled over the course of the week, but now we have another weekend.

And we have elections, with the government slated to take a drubbing in what is being seen as a referendum on the protest movement.  A poll this week had 83% of Hong Kong’s residents blaming the government and the police for the violence, not the protesters, which I found a little startling…the high percentage approving.

And today, a Hong Kong court temporarily reinstated the ban on wearing face masks ahead of the citywide elections, the High Court saying the ban would be brought back for seven days to give the government an opportunity to apply for an appeal.

President Xi Jinping has shown an increasing intolerance for the dissent and violence that has wracked the city since June and he is demanding absolute loyalty to his agenda.

The National People’s Congress issued a statement saying the original High Court ruling “seriously weakened the rightful administrative powers” of Hong Kong’s leader and doesn’t conform with either the territory’s mini-constitution, known as the Basic Law, or the National People’s Congress’ decisions.  The statement also reiterated the right of its Standing Committee to supersede Hong Kong courts in deciding the constitutionality of the territory’s laws under the Basic Law.

“No other authority has the right to make such judgments or decisions,” the statement read.

The protesters’ demands have widened to include calls for an independent, judge-led inquiry into alleged police brutality, amnesty for arrested protesters, and greater democratic rights for Hong Kong.  But while the city’s leader, Carrie Lam, pulled the extradition bill, she has refused to meet the other demands.

And as alluded to above, Beijing is none too pleased the House of Representatives passed legislation requiring the U.S. to reexamine its relationship with Hong Kong, putting formal American support for pro-democracy protests in the hands of President Trump and further adding to strains in relations with China.

The bill, which passed 417-1, is the same legislation that cleared the Senate by unanimous consent on Tuesday, requiring the secretary of state to certify annually that Hong Kong is independent enough from Beijing to retain favored trading status.  It also sanctions individuals who commit human-rights abuses in Hong Kong, among other measures.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.) said: “I urge every trading nation around the world to look clearly at Hong Kong, and at Xinjiang, and imagine the costs as China continues to entrench its surveillance state and export it around the world.”

Senator Marco Rubio (R., Fla.) said: “The United States Senate sent a clear message to Hongkongers fighting for their long-cherished freedoms: we hear you, we continue to stand with you, and we will not stand idly by as Beijing undermines your autonomy.”

A Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said that any attempt by the U.S. to interfere in China’s internal affairs would be in vain.

“We call on the U.S. side to take a clear look at the situation and take steps to stop the act from becoming a law, and stop meddling in the internal affairs of China and Hong Kong, to avoid setting a fire that would only burn itself,” Geng said.

“If the U.S. sticks to its course, China will surely take forceful measures to resolutely oppose it to safeguard national sovereignty and development interests.”

As I noted above, today President Trump seemed to hesitate a bit when questioned on whether he would be signing the bill.

North Korea: Pyongyang said it was not interested in President Trump’s latest invitation for another summit, saying it rejected the idea of a third formal gathering (not including the brief DMZ meet-and-greet) that “gives us nothing,” this coming after Trump tweeted that Kim Jong Un should “act quickly, get the deal done” – and closed with, “See you soon!”

Earlier, the U.S. and South Korea postponed a major air exercise that was set to begin on Monday, in a bid to appease the North and break gridlocked disarmament talks.

In October, North Korea walked out of the first formal denuclearization negotiations with the U.S. in about seven months.  Directly after, the Kim regime’s chief negotiator accused Washington of failing to offer Pyongyang adequate concessions.  There are no future meetings planned between the two sides, with North Korea dangling a year-end deadline for the Trump administration to improve its offers for diplomatic, security and economic aid.

Russia: Interfax reported Sunday that talks between France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine were slated for late December.  Russia announced it returned three captured naval ships to Ukraine on Monday.

Bolivia: At least 30 have been killed in clashes as Bolivia’s political crisis deepened, state security forces using increasingly lethal force against mobs of protesters demanding the return to the country of former President Evo Morales, currently in exile in Mexico after weeks of protests against him forced him to resign.

Interim President Jeanine Anez says the government plans to hold new elections soon.

Random Musings

--Presidential tracking polls….

Gallup: 43% approval for President Trump’s job performance, 54% disapproval; 90% of Republicans approve, 38% independents (Nov. 1-14).  I’m on record as saying the 38% level on independents is an important barometer.  At or above and I’ll say President Trump wins reelection.
Rasmussen: 46% approve, 52% disapprove (Nov. 22).

--In a Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll of likely caucus goers released Saturday, Pete Buttigieg surged into the lead at 25%, a 16-point climb since September, with Elizabeth Warren at 16%, and Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders at 15% each.  Amy Klobuchar was at 6%.

Separately, in the same survey, President Trump job approval rating among registered Republicans in Iowa is up 4 percentage points from March to 85%.  The percentage of those who say they will definitely vote to re-elect him is up 9 percentage points to 76%.

--A CBS News/Battleground Tracker/YouGov poll of 18 early voting states for the Democratic presidential nomination has Biden at 29%, Warren 26%, Sanders 18%, Buttigieg 9%, Kamala Harris 7%, and Klobuchar and Cory Booker at 2% apiece.

In Iowa, Sanders and Biden receive 22% each, Buttigieg 21%, and Warren 18%.

In New Hampshire, the above survey has Warren at 31%, Biden 22%, Sanders 20% and Buttigieg 16%.

In South Carolina it’s Biden 45%, Warren 17%, Sanders 15%.

--A separate Quinnipiac University poll of South Carolina Democratic primary voters gives Biden 33%, Warren 13% and Sanders 11%.  Buttigieg 6%, Tom Steyer 5%, Andrew Yang 4%, and Harris 3%.

Among white voters, Biden takes 22%, Warren 17%, Sanders and Buttigieg 11% each.

But among black voters, Biden is at 44%, Sanders 10%, Warren 8%, and Buttigieg less than one percent.

A majority of likely voters, 55%, say they might change their minds before the primary, while 43% say their minds are made up.

--Oh yeah…the Democrats held another debate this week, this time in Atlanta, which I watched little of, but the consensus was Pete Buttigieg, suddenly a front-runner, wasn’t bruised, while Amy Klobuchar continues to pile up solid performances.  She needs a breakthrough in Iowa…like sneaking into fourth.

--Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards won a second term Saturday to remain the only Democratic governor in the Deep South despite an all-out effort by President Trump to flip the seat to the Republican column.  Edwards narrowly beat businessman Eddie Rispone, 51.3% to 48.7%.

--In his “Fox and Friends” interview this morning, President Trump said he was sticking with Vice President Mike Pence as his running mate, amid persistent rumors Trump might replace him on the ticket with Nikki Haley.

--Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, contemplating a run for the Democratic presidential nomination, apologized for his support of a controversial policing strategy while he was mayor.

“I can’t change history.  However, today I want you to know that I realize back then I was wrong, and I am sorry,” Bloomberg said in remarks at a black church in Brooklyn Sunday.

Under his policy, known as stop-and-frisk, the NYPD had far-reaching authority to stop people they suspected of criminal behavior, ask questions and frisk them.  During Mr. Bloomberg’s 12 years as mayor, which ended in 2013, the New York Police Department conducted millions of such stops.

So Bloomberg flip-flopped on a policy that was the linchpin of his public-safety agenda as mayor.  He defended stop-and-frisk until the last day of his administration, despite fierce criticism from civil-liberties groups and minorities, who said black and Latino youth were unfairly and disproportionately targeted.

Crime dropped for most of his 12 years in office but community relations deteriorated, especially with minorities.

However, in his years out of office, Bloomberg defended his policy…until now.

“Our focus was on saving lives,” he said on Sunday.  “The fact is, far too many innocent people were being stopped while we tried to do that.  The overwhelming majority of them were black and Latino.”

Bloomberg added the erosion of trust between the police department among minorities “still bothers me.”

Police Benevolent Association President Patrick Lynch said of Bloomberg’s unexpected mea culpa:

“Mayor Bloomberg could have saved himself this apology if he had just listened to the police officers on the street.

“We said in the early 2000s that the quota-driven emphasis on street stops was polluting the relationship between cops and our communities.

“His administration’s misguided policy inspired an anti-police movement that has made cops the target of hatred and violence and stripped away many of the tools we had used to keep New Yorkers safe.”

Editorial / New York Post

“Ex-Mayor Mike Bloomberg’s abrupt and unconvincing flip-flop on stop-and-frisk doesn’t change the facts: This tactic is an essential of good policing, and the NYPD’s use of it under Bloomberg was not remotely racist.

“Bloomberg plainly figures he has no shot at the 2020 Democratic nomination without this reversal. Even so, he limited his mea culpa: ‘I didn’t understand back then the full impact that stops were having on the black and Latino communities.  I was totally focused on saving lives, but as we know: Good intentions aren’t good enough.’

“Notice: He’s apologizing for saving lives, simply because opponents of effective policing managed to sell a narrative about one tactic’s supposed impact.  In other words, he’s confessing his failure as a politician to counter a political attack.

“Critics argue that crime was going down before the NYPD went big on stop-and-frisk, and kept on going down after it massively cut back.  But that skips a lot of relevant info.

“For starters, we don’t have hard data on stops before at least 2006, because the police only started recording stops obsessively once the City Council passed laws requiring it.  And virtually every figure that denounced stop-and-frisk as racist had been making the same charge against all New York crime-control strategies from the day that Bill Bratton started cracking down on subway fare-beaters.  (Heck, most of them still haven’t changed their tune.)

“Yes, it’s clear that NYPD brass started pushing street cops to do more stops after Bloomberg and his police commissioner, Ray Kelly, took over on Jan. 1, 2002 – because they needed each beat cop to become more effective.

“Why?  This was right after 9/11, which forced the department to divert a huge share of resources to counter-terrorism. And Bloomberg was nonetheless shrinking the size of the force – because 9/11 also slammed the city economy, and thus the city budget, and he was drastically boosting spending on the public schools.

“Today’s NYPD makes very few stops – but it also has a lot more cops on the beat than Ray Kelly ever did. And those cops are also far better supported.  Bank settlements out after the 2008 mortgage meltdown have handed billions of dollars to Manhattan DA Cy Vance, who has passed much of it on to the NYPD to allow for much smarter, more precise policing.

“Every officer today has far more data on who the bad guys are, and exactly what they look like.  Other technology helps cops keep guns off the street without having to frisk anyone merely on suspicion – and, even so, the NYPD is struggling to keep shootings down citywide.

“As for ‘racist’: Yes, police stopped far more black and Hispanic civilians than white or Asian ones – relative to their share of the overall city population. But not relative to their share of criminal suspects, as reported by crime victims (who are also disproportionately black and Latino).

“Above all else, stop-and-frisk was about getting guns off the street.  Shootings by blacks and Hispanics account for 98 percent of all city shootings.”

--President Trump, in a meeting with vaping industry leaders, said prohibition can have dangerous consequences as he softened his stance on a proposal to pull sweet and fruity e-cigarettes off the market.

“If you don’t give it to them, it is going to come here illegally,” the president said.  Instead of legitimate companies “making something that’s safe, they are going to be selling stuff on a street corner that could be horrible.  That’s the one problem I can’t seem to forget.”

“Now instead of having a flavor that’s at least safe, they are going to be having a flavor that’s poison,” he said.

Anti-tobacco advocates pleaded with him to stick to his backing of a flavor ban, saying straight-A students were falling out of school because of their nicotine addictions.

Trump reiterated his support for raising the minimum age to purchase e-cigarettes and other tobacco products from 18 to 21, a move backed by Juul and other tobacco companies.

--Prince Andrew was forced to announce he was stepping back from his royal duties, reportedly after being canned by his mom, Queen Elizabeth II, amid the growing scandal over his ties to Jeffrey Epstein.

--According to Brazil’s space agency, the pace of deforestation in Brazil’s Amazon has accelerated during the past year.  Nearly 3,800 square miles – an area about the size of Delaware and Rhode Island together – lost forest cover in the 12 months through July, Brazil’s National Space Research Agency said, releasing early estimates Monday.  This is about 30% more than the prior 12 months and the highest level of deforestation since 2008.

During the height of the fires this year in the Amazon, the government said the actual pace of deforestation was being exaggerated, without giving proof.  President Jair Bolsonaro has pledged to promote business to improve living standards in the Amazon, many of the people there living off logging, ranching, farming and fishing.

--From the Nov. 18 issue of Army Times:

“The U.S. Army is ‘precipitously close to mission failure’ when it comes to hydrating soldiers in the kinds of contested, arid environments they are likely to go in the next few decades, according to an Army War College study.

“Nearly two decades of missions in the Middle East and Africa depended on bottled water, local wells and reverse osmosis water purification units, but that’s not always going to be available due to salt water intrusion into coastal areas and changing weather patterns, according to the study published this summer.

“ ‘Additionally, warmer weather increases hydration requirements,’ the study reads.  ‘This means that in expeditionary warfare, the Army will need to supply itself with more water.”

So the report paints a dire picture.  Following is an example.

“At one forward operating base in Iraq during the 2000s, more than 864,000 bottles of water were consumed each month, with that number doubling during hotter months, according to the study.  ‘Very few Army units have water generation capabilities, and as of 2015, brigade combat teams can no longer organically support their water needs,’ the study reads.  ‘The additional units needed to support them creates an unsupportable logistical footprint and reduces the speed of the combat units.’”  [Kyle Rempfer / militarytimes.com]

Part II, next week.

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Pray for the men and women of our armed forces…and all the fallen.

God bless America.

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Gold: $1461
Oil: $57.93…unchanged on the week

Returns for the week 11/18-11/22

Dow Jones  -0.5%  [27875]
S&P 500  -0.3%  [3110]
S&P MidCap  -0.7%
Russell 2000  -0.5%
Nasdaq  -0.3%  [8519]

Returns for the period 1/1/19-11/22/19

Dow Jones  +19.5%
S&P 500  +24.1%
S&P MidCap  +19.4%
Russell 2000  +17.8%
Nasdaq  +28.4%

Bulls 57.6
Bears 17.9 [prior week, 57.2 / 17.1]

Have a great week.  Happy Thanksgiving!  No arguments.  Watch football or walk the dog…like for six hours.  If Fido protests after hour three in the rain, tell him, “It’s best for both of us, kid.”

Brian Trumbore

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