Week in Review

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Week in Review

12/21/2019

For the week 12/16-12/20

[Posted 9:30 PM ET, Friday]

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Special thanks to Mark R.

Edition 1,079

Last Saturday, as part of its opener for the Army-Navy game, CBS Sports had the voice of President John F. Kennedy, and his speech to the graduating class of the U.S. Naval Academy, June 7, 1961, while showing photos and the words of current players at the service academies and their experiences; Kennedy extolling the virtue of what they were about to do upon graduation and the importance of their work to the future of America and how we are perceived around the world.  Anyone watching the touching tribute couldn’t help but think about the nation today and the battle that was about to take place later in the week in the Halls of Congress.

JFK said in part:

“You must understand not only this country but other countries.  You must know something about strategy and tactics and logistics, but also economics and politics and diplomacy and history.  You must know everything you can know about military power, and you must also understand the limits of military power....

“In serving the American people, you represent the American people and the best of the ideals of this free society.  Your posture and your performance will provide many people far beyond our shores, who know very little of our country, the only evidence they will ever see as to whether America is truly dedicated to the cause of justice and freedom.”

Wednesday, the House of Representatives impeached President Donald J. Trump for abuse of power and obstruction of Congress, making him the third president in history to be charged with committing high crimes and misdemeanors and face removal by the Senate.

Article One, abuse of power for soliciting election assistance from Ukraine in the form of investigations to discredit his Democratic political rivals, passed 230 to 197, with just two Democrats opposing it.

The vote on the second article, obstruction of Congress, passed 229 to 198, with a third Democrat joining Republicans in opposition.

The impeachment votes then set the stage for a historic trial slated for early January.

But instead of sending the articles of impeachment that Democrats had just passed on to the Senate, Speaker Nancy Pelosi is withholding them until she is convinced the terms for the trial are adequate.

“We cannot name managers until we see what the process is on the Senate side,” Pelosi said Wednesday night.  “So far we haven’t seen anything that looks fair to us.”

Under the Constitution the House has the sole power to impeach, and the Senate has “the sole power to try all impeachments.”

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell on Thursday slammed Trump’s impeachment as the “most rushed, least thorough and most unfair” in modern history – and accused Democrats of being “too afraid” to send the articles to the Senate for trial.

Calling the vote a “predetermined end of a partisan crusade that began even before President Trump was nominated,” McConnell said the “rushed and rigged inquiry” was “poisoned” from the outset.

McConnell also insisted the “historically low bar” of the accusations against the president would “invite the impeachment of every future president.”

He said the fact Speaker Pelosi hadn’t signaled when she would present the charges to the Senate was proof that the Democrats were “too afraid to even transmit their shoddy work.”

“This is really comical,” McConnell added.

But to me, what is also comical is that McConnell, again, did not defend the president’s conduct with regards to Article One.

That said, Pelosi needs to move this forward.  Democrats had voted to impeach the president on the grounds that they needed to act with urgency to prevent him from soliciting foreign interference in the next election, but putting a hold on the delivery of the impeachment articles undercuts their message.

Russian President Vladimir Putin weighed in on the impeachment, saying Democrats had impeached Trump for “fabricated” reasons in order to reverse his 2016 election victory.  Putin, speaking at his annual year-end news conference, said he expected Trump to survive the proceedings and stay in office.

“It’s unlikely they (the Senate) will want to remove from power a representative of their party based on what are, in my opinion, completely fabricated reasons,” said Putin.  “This is simply a continuation of the (U.S.) intra-political battle where one party that lost an election, the Democratic Party, is trying to achieve results using other methods and means.  They first accused Trump of a conspiracy with Russia.  Then it turned out there wasn’t a conspiracy and that it couldn’t be the basis for impeachment.  Now they have dreamt up (the idea) of some kind of pressure being exerted on Ukraine.”

[Putin did criticize the U.S. in general for what he called unfriendly steps towards Russia, saying Moscow had adopted a policy of responding in kind; singling out Washington’s failure to extend the New START arms control treaty, which Putin said augurs a new arms race.]

Separately, the Washington Post, in an essay on President Trump’s views on Ukraine, interviewed 15 former administration and government officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to offer their candid views about the president.

“Almost from the moment he took office, President Trump seized on a theory that troubled his senior aides: Ukraine, he told them on many occasions, had tried to stop him from winning the White House.

“After meeting privately in July 2017 with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Group of 20 summit in Hamburg, Trump grew more insistent that Ukraine worked to defeat him, according to multiple former officials familiar with his assertions.

“The president’s intense resistance to the assessment of U.S. intelligence agencies that Russia systematically interfered in the 2016 campaign – and the blame he cast instead on a rival country – led many of his advisers to think that Putin himself helped spur the idea of Ukraine’s culpability, said the officials....

“One former senior White House official said Trump even stated so explicitly at one point, saying he knew Ukraine was the real culprit because ‘Putin told me.’

“Two other former officials said the senior White House official described Trump’s comment to them....

“U.S. intelligence officials told lawmakers and their staff members this past fall that Russian security services played a major role in spreading false claims of Ukrainian complicity, said people familiar with the assessments....

“Aides said they have long been confounded by the president’s fixation on Ukraine – a topic he raised when advisers sought to caution him that Russia was likely to try to disrupt future elections.

“ ‘He would say: ‘This is ridiculous.  Everyone knows I won the election.  The greatest election in the world.  The Russians didn’t do anything.  The Ukrainians tried to do something,’’ one former official said.

“Trump, the official said, offered no proof to support his theory of Ukraine’s involvement.

“ ‘We spent a lot of time...trying to refute this one in the first year of the administration,’ Fiona Hill, a former senior director for Europe and Russia on the National Security Council, told impeachment investigators in October.”

Well, the Post story goes on and on, and you’ve seen how in the run-up to Trump’s impeachment, some GOP lawmakers have echoed the Ukraine-did-it theory, weaving together events that did occur – such as the then-Ukrainian ambassador’s criticism of Trump in a 2016 op-ed – as part of a conspiracy they equate with the Kremlin’s intelligence operation.

But where do we go from here?  We’ll see what happens when Congress returns but remember one thing...long after the Senate’s looming action, other information is going to be coming out, and eventually some of the witnesses will be compelled to talk, all during the height of the 2020 campaign.  So remember my adage, “wait 24 hours.”

As for the election, President Trump received some great news today with the release of a CNN/SSRS poll that showed 76% of American believe economic conditions today are good, the highest such mark in 20 years.  68% also believe the economy will be in good shape a year from now, and if that optimism were to stick for good reason, Donald Trump will be reelected, because it would tell you all manner of things, such as no major geopolitical crisis that saps consumer and investor confidence. 

Back to impeachment, though, I have zero doubt President Trump sought interference in our election in coercing dirt on a political opponent from a foreign nation.  The White House has produced zero documents and witnesses to refute this.  And over and over the president himself has told us he sought this...in public, like Oct. 3rd in the White House driveway.  What more do you need?

But given the political climate we’re in and the deep divisions, President Trump should have been censured.  It’s doubtful even this would have had significant bipartisan support, but it was the right thing to do.

Lastly, one thing this impeachment exercise may have done that’s positive, with the constant references to the Founding Fathers, is perhaps it will spur an interest in American history among our schoolchildren.   That would be good.

Opinion...all sides....

Editorial / New York Post

“By its very nature, Alexander Hamilton wrote in Federalist 65, impeachment ‘will seldom fail to agitate the passions of the whole community, and to divide it into parties more or less friendly or inimical to the accused.  In many cases it will connect itself with the pre-existing factions, and will enlist all their animosities, partialities, influence, and interest on one side or on the other.’

“And: ‘In such cases there will always be the greatest danger that the decision will be regulated more by the comparative strength of parties, than by the real demonstrations of innocence or guilt.’

“Republicans and Democrats can both nod their heads in agreement now – even as each side thinks it’s the other party that’s ignoring the facts out of partisan loyalty.

“Yet the fact remains that House Democrats have charged ahead, voting out two articles of impeachment on a purely partisan basis, with all Republicans (and a handful of Democrats) opposed.

“And they’ve done so despite the view Speaker Nancy Pelosi expressed to The Washington Post just this March: ‘Impeachment is so divisive to the country that unless there’s something so compelling and overwhelming and bipartisan, I don’t think we should go down that path, because it divides the country.  And [President Trump’s] just not worth it.’

“Or, for that matter, the warning Rep. Jerry Nadler issued back in 1998, during the Republicans’ drive to impeach President Bill Clinton: ‘There must never be a narrowly voted impeachment or an impeachment substantially supported by one of our major political parties and largely opposed by the other.  Such an impeachment would lack legitimacy, would produce divisiveness and bitterness in our politics for years to come.’

“Public opinion, to the extent it has budged at all over the 12 weeks since Pelosi declared an ‘impeachment inquiry,’ has turned against impeachment.  That certainly suggests that the evidence Democrats insist is overwhelming isn’t actually persuasive to those whose minds weren’t already made up.

“It doesn’t help their case that Democrats in Congress had embraced the #Resistance by Inauguration Day, nor that most House Dems supported impeachment long before the Ukraine affair made a single headline.

“Nor that the Russiagate investigation, which top Democrats like Rep. Adam Schiff long insisted had found clear evidence of Trump crimes, actually never found much of anything – and indeed looks to have been completely ginned up by Trump’s enemies in the Obama administration with an assist from operatives working for the Hillary Clinton campaign.

“Impeachment is a vital power.  Hamilton called it ‘a birdie in the hands of the legislative body upon the executive servants of the government.’  Without it, a chief executive gone wrong couldn’t be removed without ‘the crisis of a national revolution.’

“But that’s all the more reason to use it carefully – not this pell-mell rush to get it off the House floor and over to the Senate, which is sure to acquit the president because the House built so shoddy a case.

“As law professor Jonathan Turley warned Democrats just two weeks ago, passing frivolous articles of impeachment ‘is an abuse of power.  It’s your abuse of power.  You’re doing precisely what you are criticizing the president for doing.’

“Yet, with Wednesday night’s votes, the deed is done.  Let’s pray the consequences for the Republic won’t be as dire as Nancy Pelosi and Jerry Nadler once warned.”

Editorial / Washington Post

“The House of Representatives’ impeachment of President Trump on Wednesday was proper and necessary.  Mr. Trump withheld a White House meeting and U.S. military aid in an attempt to force Ukraine’s president to aid his reelection campaign.  This was a gross abuse of his office that Congress could not allow to go unpunished.  Nor could it acquiesce in Mr. Trump’s stonewalling a constitutionally authorized inquiry with a blanket refusal to cooperate with lawful subpoenas for documents and the testimony of senior aides.

“Whether or not a Senate trial leads to his conviction and removal from office, Mr. Trump has deservedly suffered an indictment imposed on only two previous American presidents.  The two articles of impeachment reinforce essential, and what should be self-evident, norms of our democracy: that presidents cannot use their powers to extort political favors from foreign governments, and that they cannot comprehensively reject congressional checks.  That Mr. Trump denied all wrongdoing made the House action only more necessary....

“Mr. Trump himself set the tone for his defense with a ranting, falsehood-packed letter to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in which he repeated the proven lie that Joe Biden sought the dismissal of a Ukrainian prosecutor to protect his son and the Ukrainian gas company that employed him.  Even as he faced impeachment, Mr. Trump was still pursuing the primary aim of his extortion of the Ukrainians – to smear his potential 2020 opponent.

“The president’s refusal to acknowledge error and the likelihood that he will continue to violate democratic norms make imperative a full and impartial Senate trial of the charges against him.  Unfortunately, Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has made clear that he has no intention of allowing such a trial.  Bluntly declaring that ‘I’m not an impartial juror,’ Mr. McConnell indicated Tuesday that he will seek a vote of dismissal on the charges against Mr. Trump before allowing any testimony – even though crucial witnesses to Mr. Trump’s behavior, including former national security adviser John Bolton and acting chief of staff Mick Mulvaney, have never been heard from.

“This ought not to be acceptable to Republicans who have criticized Mr. Trump’s behavior, such as Sen. Mitt Romney (Utah), or those who have said they will take their duty as jurors seriously, such as Sen. Susan Collins (Maine).  They should tell Mr. McConnell they cannot judge Mr. Trump’s guilt or innocence until they have heard those firsthand accounts Mr. Trump has tried to suppress.  Republicans have accused Democrats of cheapening the impeachment remedy, but if they fail to hold a credible trial of the serious charges against Mr. Trump, it is they who will damage our constitutional system.”

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“House Democrats voted Wednesday evening to impeach Donald Trump but, media high-fives aside, what have they accomplished?  They have failed to persuade the country; they have set a new, low standard for impeaching a President; Mr. Trump will be acquitted in the Senate; and Democrats may have helped Mr. Trump win re-election. Congratulations to The Resistance.

“Democrats Nancy Pelosi and Jerrold Nadler have said in the past that impeachment must be bipartisan to be credible, and they have achieved their goal – against impeachment.  In the actual vote, two Democrats voted against both articles and a third voted with them against one.  New Jersey Rep. Jeff Van Drew voted no and may switch to the GOP.  [Ed. He did Thursday.]  All Republicans voted against impeachment.

“The impeachment press will deride the GOP as either afraid of Donald Trump or moral sellouts. But note that even the 20 GOP Members who are retiring from the House and not running for another office voted against impeachment.  GOP Members like Peter King (N.Y.), Jim Sensenbrenner (Wis.) and Will Hurd (Texas) have been unafraid to break with party leaders or Presidents in the past.

“The problem isn’t GOP consciences, it’s the weak and dishonest Democratic case for impeachment.  One issue is the unfair House process.  Democrats refused GOP witness requests in the Intelligence Committee, denied the GOP a hearing day in the Judiciary Committee, and rushed the impeachment debate and vote. They claim impeachment is a serious, solemn moment but then sprinted to judgment to meet the political needs of swing-district Members who want it over fast.

“On the substance, Democrats have taken an episode of Mr. Trump’s reckless foreign-policy judgment and distorted it into broad claims of bribery and extortion.  The evidence of weakness is that their own articles of impeachment include no allegations of specific crimes.

“Instead they watered them down to ‘abuse of power’ and obstruction of Congress.  The first is so general that the majority can define it to be anything.  Impeachment doesn’t require a criminal offense, but the virtue of including a violation of law is that specific actions can be measured against it.  That is why every previous impeachment included charges of specific violations of law....

“As for the politics, Mr. Trump is now likely to be the first impeached President to run for re-election.  Democrats clearly hope the Scarlet ‘I’ will work against him, but Mr. Trump will tout the partisan vote as illegitimate and his Senate acquittal as vindication.  He will also argue that Democrats and the media never accepted his 2016 victory and tried to overrule the verdict of voters.  He will be right.

“How this argument will play out is impossible to predict, but note that Mr. Trump’s approval rating has been improving amid the impeachment debate.  Support for impeachment hasn’t increased.  Millions of Republicans who dislike Mr. Trump’s character and behavior are nonetheless repelled by the attempt to oust him months before another election.

“Removing Mr. Trump from office outside of an election won’t banish Trumpism or reduce political polarization.  Mr. Trump’s voters would see it as an elite coup, and Mr. Trump would not go quietly into exile.  A more rational opposition would understand this, accept his victory in 2016, and focus on defeating him at the ballot box.  The Ukraine intervention could be part of the electoral indictment.

“Instead Democrats want to overrule the electorate’s vote in 2016 and pre-empt it in 2020.  If Mr. Trump wins re-election, the folly of this impeachment will be a major reason.”

Bret L. Stephens / New York Times

“That Trump didn’t get away with it is relief, not an exoneration.  That he continues to insist the call was ‘perfect,’ as he did Tuesday in his letter to Nancy Pelosi, means that he is likely to do it again.  That he attempted to subvert the will of Congress by impounding congressional funds for his political ends threatens the separation of powers in ways that will haunt a future Republican Congress.  That he was prepared to endanger an ally and benefit an enemy is not treason, as the Constitution defines treason, but it is a travesty, as any American ought to understand travesty.  That Republican leaders are cheering him only serves to define deviancy down and debase our political norms in ways that will surely haunt a future Republican Congress.  That conservative pundits claim to be outraged at the FBI’s investigation of the Trump campaign – or the smearing of Carter Page – while being indifferent to Trump’s attempt to investigate Joe Biden – and the smearing of Hunter Biden – marks a fresh low in rhetorical sophistry.

“There are people who believe that law, morality, traditions and institutions are at least as important to the preservation of freedom as the will of the people.  Such people are called conservative.  What Republicans are now doing with their lock step opposition to impeachment – and with their indifference to the behavior that brought impeachment about – is not conservative.  It is the abdication of principle to power.

“I might think differently about impeachment if Trump had shown any sense of contrition.  Or if Republicans had shown any inclination to censure him.  But Trump hasn’t, and they haven’t.   Whatever the political ramifications of impeachment now, history will judge members of this Congress harshly if they fail to state their revulsion at the president’s behavior in the strongest terms they can.  Impeach and convict.”

Trump World

--Among the impeachment polling, a survey from Fox News had 50% of American voters wanting Donald Trump impeached and removed from office, with another 4% saying the president should be impeached but not removed, while 41% oppose impeachment altogether.  Needless to say, President Trump was incensed, tweeting:

“The @foxnewPolls (sic), always inaccurate, are heavily weighted toward Dems.  So ridiculous – same thing happened in 2016.  They got it all wrong.  Get a new pollster!”

A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll had the nation evenly divided, 48% to 48%, on whether to remove the president from office.  Among independents, 50% support impeachment and removal, while 44% oppose it.

A CNN/SSRS poll had 45% supporting impeachment and removal from office, with opposition to both at 47%.  [32% believe the impeachment inquiry will ultimately help Trump’s reelection bid, while 25% say it will hurt his chances and 37% say it will make no difference.]

In a key battleground state, Wisconsin, the latest Marquette University Law School poll of registered voters showed just 40% believing Trump should be impeached and removed from office, while 52% do not think so, and 6% say they don’t know.  In November the figures were 40/53.

The new poll found 52% saying they believe President Trump asked the Ukrainian president to investigate Trump’s political rivals while 29% believe Trump did not do this.

--A major evangelical Christian magazine founded by the late Rev. Billy Graham on Thursday published an editorial calling for President Trump’s removal from office.

The editorial in Christianity Today – coming one day after President Trump was impeached – raised fresh questions about the durability of his support among the conservative evangelicals who have proved to be a critical component of his base.

The magazine’s editorial written by editor in chief Mark Galli, envisions a message to those evangelical Christians who have remained stalwart Trump backers “in spite of his blackened moral record.”

“Remember who you are and whom you serve,” Galli’s editorial states.  “Consider how your justification of Mr. Trump influences your witness to your Lord and Savior.  Consider what an unbelieving world will say if you continue to brush off Mr. Trump’s immoral words and behavior in the cause of political expediency.”

In 1998, the magazine was starkly critical of President Bill Clinton’s moral fiber during the impeachment proceedings against him, calling Clinton “morally unable to lead.”

“Unfortunately, the words that we applied to Mr. Clinton 20 years ago apply almost perfectly to our current president,” the editorial stated.

At the core of its indictment of Trump is what Galli described as the “profoundly immoral” act of seeking the assistance of the Ukrainian government in a bid “to harass and discredit” a Democratic rival, former Vice President Joe Biden.

The magazine’s editor took no position on whether Trump should be removed from office through a Senate conviction or through the ballot box next fall, calling that a matter of “prudential judgment.”

Meanwhile, Billy Graham’s son, and fiercely loyal Trump support, Rev. Franklin Graham, disavowed the editorial.

Trump tweeted in response:

“A far left magazine, or very ‘progressive,’ as some would call it, which has been doing poorly and hasn’t been involved with the Billy Graham family for many years, Christianity Today, knows nothing about reading a perfect transcript of a routine phone call and would rather....

“....have a Radical Left nonbeliever, who wants to take your religion & your guns, than Donald Trump as your President.  No President has done more for the Evangelical community, and it’s not even close.  You’ll not get anything from those Dems on stage. I won’t be reading ET [sic] again!”

A Pew Research Center survey in August found 77% of white evangelical Protestants approving of Trump’s job performance.

--President Trump, out of nowhere, at his incoherent 2-hour stultifying rally on Wednesday, ripped into the late Congressman John Dingell.

Trump said he gave Dingell an “A plus” memorial service and ordered flags lowered to half staff when he died earlier this year, age 92, after 59 years in Congress; Dingell also a World War II veteran who signed up after Pearl Harbor.

“She calls me up,” Trump said of widow Debbie Dingell.

“ ‘It’s the nicest thing that’s ever happened.  Thank you so much.  John would be so thrilled he’s looking down, he’d be so thrilled.  Thank you so much, sir,’” Trump said Ms. Dingell told him.

“Maybe he’s looking up, I don’t know; I don’t know, maybe,” Trump said.  “But let’s assume he’s looking down.”

Debbie Dingell, who replaced her husband, said her “healing” process was damaged by the president’s outrageous remarks.

“Mr. President, let’s set politics aside.  My husband earned all his accolades after a lifetime of service,” she tweeted.

“I’m preparing for the first holiday season without the man I love.  You brought me down in a way you can never imagine and your hurtful words just made my healing much harder,” she added.

Sen. Lindsey Graham and two House Republicans from Michigan called for Trump to say he’s sorry.  “If he said that I think he should apologize,” Graham told reporters.  He said he hadn’t seen the remarks, but “that would be a bad thing to say.”  “John Dingell is a fine, fine man,” Graham said.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi also said “what the president misunderstands is that cruelty is not wit.”

“Just because he gets a laugh for saying the cruel things that he says doesn’t mean he’s funny,” Pelosi said.  “It’s not funny at all.  It’s very sad.”

White House spokeswoman Stephanie Grisham said Trump “has been under attack.”

“As we all know, the president is a counter puncher,” Grisham told ABC News.  “It was a very, very supportive and wild crowd, and he was just riffing on some of the things that had been happening the past few days.”

Patti Davis / Washington Post

“It was hardly surprising that, on the night he was being impeached, President Trump was raging onstage at one of his raucous political rallies, this time in Battle Creek, Mich., mocking and denigrating anyone and everyone who doesn’t bow to him.  But he then went even further, showing that his cruelty really has no limits.

“He imitated Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.), whose husband, former Democratic congressman John D. Dingell, died in February at age 92 of complications from prostate cancer.  Trump launched into a sing-songy, whispery rendition of what he says she asked him – to lower flags to half-staff – and then her grateful response, which included (according to Trump) her saying that her husband was looking down from above.

“Then he aimed for the jugular, saying that maybe John Dingell was ‘looking up’ from below.  So to be clear, the president of the United States went to the home state of a congressman who died not that long ago and snarked that Dingell might be in hell.  For probably the first time ever, some in his crowd of die-hard fans groaned....

“Trump has assaulted numerous people at his rallies – a Gold Star family, a disabled reporter, various women, political rivals.  He knows full well the impact of attacking people so publicly.  Maybe some of those in his audience on Wednesday finally began to perceive that his cruelty is limitless, his sense of decency nonexistent.

“ ‘What the president misunderstands,’ House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Thursday, ‘is that cruelty is not wit.’  I have to disagree with her.  I think he understands perfectly the power of cruelty to inflict deep wounds.  He wasn’t aiming for wit.   He wouldn’t bother with wit when he can aim for the heart of a widow and try to break it again.”

--According to a new interview with Rudy Giuliani in The New Yorker, Giuliani said removing the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, Marie Yovanovitch, was a key part of his effort to dig up dirt on Democrats on behalf of his client, President Donald Trump.

“I believed that I needed Yovanovitch out of the way,” Giuliani told reporter Adam Entous.  “She was going to make the investigations difficult for everybody.”

Giuliani’s admission appears to be the first time someone has directly linked Yovanovitch’s removal to the desired investigations into Democrats.

Trump this week said of Rudy: “He’s a great person who loves our country and he does this out of love, believe me.  He does it out of love.”

--Bloomberg is reporting that President Trump will attend next year’s World Economic Forum in Davos, the Jan. 21-24 event in Switzerland giving him an opportunity to tout his economic record ahead of the 2020 election, one of the few international trips he’s expected to take as he focuses on campaigning.  Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will accompany him.

--Trump Tweets

“SUCH ATROCIOUS LIES BY THE RADICAL LEFT, DO NOTHING DEMOCRATS.  THIS IS AN ASSAULT ON AMERICA, AND AN ASSAULT ON THE REPUBLICAN PARTY!!!!”

“So after the Democrats gave me no Due Process in the House, no lawyers, no witnesses, no nothing, they now want to tell the Senate how to run their trial.  Actually, they have zero proof of anything, they will never even show up.  They want out.  I want an immediate trial!”

“The House Democrats were unable to get even a single vote from the Republicans on their Impeachment Hoax.  The Republicans have never been so united!  The Dem’s case is so bad that they don’t even want to go to trial!”

“Impeachment Poll numbers are starting to drop like a rock now that people are understanding better what this whole Democrat Scam is all about!”

“Good marks and reviews on the letter I sent to Pelosi today.  She is the worst!  No wonder with people like her and Cryin’ Chuck Schumer, D.C. has been such a mess for so long – and that includes the previous administration who (and now we know for sure) SPIED on my campaign.”

Wall Street and Trade

The economic news was strong this week, as equities continued to rally.  November housing starts were better than expected, while permits for future building hit a 12 ½-year high.  November existing home sales were slightly below expectations.

November industrial production came in better than forecast, 1.1%, while the figures on personal income and consumption (consumer spending) both beat expectations, 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.

We also had our final look at third-quarter GDP and it was unchanged at 2.1%.

So the last four quarters look like this (annualized percentage growth):

Q3 2019...2.1
Q2 2019...2.0
Q1 2019...3.1
Q4 2018...1.1

But with all the good news above, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow barometer for the fourth quarter still ticked down to 2.1%.

Turning to the Trade War...the phase one trade deal announced late last week between the United States and China after more than two years of on-and-off talks, is still a bit fuzzy in terms of details.  China has said it will discuss them when the accord is formally signed, which is expected to be early next month, while U.S. officials say China agreed to increase purchases of U.S. products and services by at least $200 billion over the next two years.

What we do know on the tariff front is that the threatened 15% tariffs on $160 billion of Chinese exports, due to go into effect Dec. 15, were cancelled.  15% tariffs on $120 billion of Chinese goods in September was reduced to 7.5%, and the 25% tariffs imposed earlier on $250 billion remains in place.

According to the U.S. Trade Representative’s office, China would buy an additional $32 billion in U.S. farm product over two years, or an annual total of about $40 billion, compared to a baseline of $24 billion in 2017 before the trade war started.

Chinese officials have not publicly confirmed any of this – especially on goods purchase commitments, but when the deal was announced last Friday, it said it would import more U.S. wheat, rice, corn, energy, pharmaceuticals and financial services.

Here’s the bottom line for now.  If you look at the baseline 2017, China’s total imports of goods were $1.84 trillion, of which the U.S. was said to be $188 billion of that.   If China buys $200 billion more over the baseline for two years, it’s then buying $588 billion over that period. 

Such a large percentage of its overall imports would result in trade diversion; substituting the imports of other nations and thereby upsetting other trading partners and no doubt inviting challenges at the World Trade Organization.

China also imported $131 billion in farm goods across the world in 2017, with record shipments from the U.S. valued at $29.5 billion in 2012, compared with the $24 billion in baseline 2017.  So, again, $40 billion per year is possible, but as I’ve written in the past, China has been diversifying its supplier base over the past two years, with countries like Argentina, Brazil, Australia, Germany and New Zealand among the beneficiaries.  They would now be the losers.  [And if U.S. farmers massively ramp up production, that risks further pushing down global prices.]

The thing is, yes, China needs U.S. pork in the worst way, what with African swine fever decimating their pig farms, and it can use more soybeans, but $40 billion in agricultural goods (let alone President Trump’s touted $50 billion)?  We’ll see.

And as for the pain that’s been inflicted on the U.S. farm community, farm bankruptcies are up 24 percent from last year and farm debt is projected to reach a record high ($416bn), according to the U.S. Farm Bureau.  But those farmers who voted for Trump in 2016 are likely to do so again in 2020.

Washington said the deal also includes stronger Chinese legal protections for patents, trademarks and copyrights, including improved criminal and civil procedures to combat online infringement.

The two countries have reached a consensus over the protection of trade secrets, guarding intellectual property rights for pharmaceutical products, and cracking down on counterfeits and pirated goods on e-commerce platforms, Chinese Vice Minister of commerce Wang Shouwen said today.

But Wang also said China would step up protection of intellectual property at its own pace.

The enforcement mechanisms said to be in the agreement are such that you can be sure any disagreements that arise will likely take years to resolve, given the nature of the Chinese and wanting to protect their main plan, “Made in China 2025,” which is still moving ahead.

China also did not agree to scale back any of its government subsidies for its key industries.

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

The trade deal that President Trump announced with China on Friday isn’t VE Day, but it’s still welcome economic news. The modest deal is essentially a détente that eliminates the damage from pending U.S. tariffs, and even makes some progress on longstanding problems like China’s intellectual property theft.

“Mr. Trump’s willy-nilly trade policy has been the worst plank of his economic program, chopping annual GDP growth by as much as 1%.  His tariffs and the retaliation have catalyzed a manufacturing recession and caused CEOs to reduce capital spending.  At least he seems to recognize the damage and is moving in an election year to mitigate the trade uncertainty.

“This includes removing his threat of auto tariffs against Europe, setting up the revised North American trade pact for passage, and now a truce with the world’s second largest economy.  This ‘phase one’ pact doesn’t begin to settle all of the trade issues with China, and notably doesn’t include cybertheft or the Chinese telecom company Huawei.  But it does step back from what could have been a bloody trade war that would damage both countries....

“Inevitably, Democrats like Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer are criticizing the deal as a sellout to Beijing.  But that is election-year cynicism.  Mr. Schumer doesn’t mind if the economy suffers in 2020 amid a trade war because his goal is electing Democrats.

“Mr. Trump has done more to address Chinese cheating than any previous President, and he is smart to step back and test if China will honor these new commitments. The deal will also help China’s reformers, who want to make these policy changes to overcome its own many economic weaknesses.  If China’s mercantilists block reform, Mr. Trump or the next President can revisit the terms.  Mr. Trump is showing good faith in giving China a chance to show it can play by the rules of honest global trade.”

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer summed up the trade agreement in an interview with CBS Sunday.

“Ultimately, whether this whole agreement works is going to be determined by who makes the decisions in China, not the United States.

“If the hardliners are making the decisions we’re going to get one outcome, if the reformers are making the decisions, which is what we hope, then we’re going to get another outcome.”

So this afternoon, President Trump tweeted:

“Had a very good talk with President Xi of China concerning our giant Trade Deal.  China has already started large scale purchases of agricultural product & more.  Formal signing being arranged.  Also talked about North Korea, where we are working with China, & Hong Kong (progress!).”

But according to a readout of the call by China’s Xinhua news agency, President Xi accused the United States of interfering in its internal affairs, though expressed hope that the two leaders could keep lines of communication open.  Xi told Trump that Beijing was deeply concerned about the United States’ words and actions on Taiwan, Hong Kong, Xinjiang and Tibet, according to Xinhua.

Meanwhile, the House of Representatives approved President Trump’s North American trade pact, U.S. Mexico Canada Agreement, or USMCA, by a 385 to 41 vote, with 193 Democrats and 192 Republicans backing it.  The Senate is expected to pass the legislation early next year, after which the president will sign it into law.

Mexico’s Senate has approved the deal, but it needs ratification in Canada to enter into force and replace Nafta, the North American Free Trade Agreement.

USMCA seeks to update the original Nafta deal by accounting for electronic commerce and revising the rules for the auto trade.  The deal’s broad political appeal stems from measures such as holding Mexican labor to higher standards, including provisions that would allow for the free formation of unions in Mexico, while placing limits on U.S. multinationals and revising the rules of the auto trade.

Freshmen Democrats pressed Speaker Pelosi for quick action, and the AFL-CIO, which normally opposes trade agreements, endorsed a revised version of USMCA that was more favorable to labor than initially put forward.

Mexico’s government and business community initially rebuffed the added provisions designed to appease Democrats, including labor inspections of Mexican factories, saying they violated Mexican sovereignty, but U.S. trade representative Lighthizer appears to have convinced Mexico the language isn’t as onerous as they feared.

Europe and Asia

We had flash December PMI readings for the eurozone (EA19) this week, with the composite at 50.6 vs. 50.6 in November, unchanged (50 the dividing line between growth and contraction).  Manufacturing came in at 45.9 vs. 46.9 last month, services at 52.4 vs. 51.9.

Germany’s flash manufacturing reading for the month was 43.4 vs. 44.1 in November, services 52.0 vs. 51.7.

France’s flash manufacturing figure was 50.3 vs. 51.7, services 52.4 vs. 52.2.

The UK’s flash composite reading for December was 48.5, a 41-month low, with manufacturing at 47.4 vs. 48.9, services 49.0 vs. 49.3.

All the above courtesy of IHS Markit.

Chris Williamson / IHS Markit

“The Eurozone economy closes out 2019 mired in its worst spell since 2013, with businesses struggling against the headwinds of near-stagnant demand and gloomy prospects for the year ahead.

“The economy has been stuck in crawler gear for four straight months, with the PMI indicative of GDP growing at a quarterly rate of just 0.1%.

“There are scant signs of any imminent improvement.  New order growth remains largely stalled and job creation has almost ground to a halt, down to its lowest for over five years as companies seek to reduce overheads in the weak trading environment and uncertain outlook.

“While service sector growth remains encouragingly resilient in the face of the manufacturing downturn, further softening of the labor market could cause weakness to spill over.

“Germany’s steep manufacturing downturn has added to the chance of its economy contracting slightly in the fourth quarter, but France is enjoying a more resilient performance, providing a key area of support to help keep the eurozone growing.”

One more euro area data point.  November inflation came in at 1.0% for the EA19, vs. 1.9% in Nov. 2018.  Ex-food and energy inflation was 1.4%, still well below the ECB’s 2% target.

Brexit: Prime Minister Boris Johnson got his Brexit legislation through parliament today, 358 to 234 – a strong majority – in favor of the EU (Withdrawal Agreement) Bill, which still needs fine-tuning after it is scrutinized more carefully over the coming weeks by MPs and the House of Lords, with further debate slated for Jan. 7-9.  But there is little doubt the UK is out of the bloc by January 31.

The bill does, however, ban an extension of the transition period – during which the UK is out of the EU but follows many of its rules – past 2020.

The government is unrealistic in thinking it can work out a trade deal in eleven months, the end of the transition period.

Johnson told MPs that the bill “learns the emphatic lesson of the last Parliament” and “rejects any further delay.”

“It ensures we depart on 31 January.  At that point Brexit will be done.  It will be over.  The sorry story of the last three years will be at an end and we can move forward.”

But now with just eleven months to put together a trade deal with the EU, many still fear a “no-deal” Brexit at the start of 2021 that would disrupt trade with the EU and send Britain hurtling into recession.

The EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, has cast doubt over whether the trade talks will be so swiftly concluded, saying last month that the negotiations would be “difficult and demanding” and warning Britain the bloc “will not tolerate unfair competitive advantage.”

Remember, any trade agreement between the UK and the EU will need to be ratified by 27 EU parliaments, also within the 11 months.

If the UK leaves the transition period with no deal, it would trade with the EU on terms laid out by the World Trade Organization, imposing high tariffs on many goods.

Roger Cohen / New York Times

“Donald Trump, in his telling, could have shot somebody on Fifth Avenue and won.  Boris Johnson could mislead the queen.  He could break his promise to get Britain out of Europe by Oct. 31.  He could lie about Turks invading Britain and the cost of European Union membership.  He could make up stories about building 40 new hospitals.  He could double down on the phantom $460 million a week that Brexit would deliver to the National Health Service – and still win a landslide Tory electoral victory not seen since Margaret Thatcher’s triumph in 1987.

“The British, or at least the English, did not care.  Truth is so 20th century.  They wanted Brexit done; and, formally speaking, Johnson will now take Britain out of Europe by Jan. 31, 2020, even if all the tough decisions on relations with the union will remain.  Johnson was lucky.  In the pathetic, emetic Jeremy Corbyn, the soon-to-depart Labour Party Leader, he faced perhaps the worst opposition candidate ever.  In the Tory press, he had a ferocious friend prepared to overlook every failing.  In Brexit-weary British subjects, whiplashed since the 2016 referendum, he had the perfect receptacle for his ‘get Brexit done.’

“Johnson was also skillful, blunting Nigel Farage’s far-right Brexit Party, which stood down in many seats, took a lot of Labour votes in the seats where it did run, and ended up with nothing.  The British working class, concentrated in the Midlands and the North, abandoned Labour and Corbyn’s socialism for the Tories and Johnson’s nationalism.

“In the depressed provinces of institutionalized precariousness, workers embraced an old Etonian mouthing about unleashed British potential.  Not a million miles from blue-collar heartland Democrats migrating to Trump the millionaire and America First demagogy.

“That’s not the only parallel with American politics less than 11 months from the election.  Johnson concentrated all the Brexit votes.  By contrast, the pro-Remain vote was split between Corbyn’s internally divided Labour Party, the hapless Liberal Democrats, and the Scottish National Party.  For anybody contemplating the divisions of the Democratic Party as compared with the Trump movement’s fanatical singleness of purpose, now reinforced by the impeachment proceedings, this can only be worrying.

“The clear rejection of Labour’s big-government socialism also looks ominous for Democrats who believe the party can lurch left and win.  The British working class did not buy nationalized railways, electricity distribution and water utilities when they could stick it to some faceless bureaucrat in Brussels and – in that phrase as immortal as it is meaningless – take back their country....

“As my readers know, I am a passionate European patriot who sees the union as the greatest achievement of the second half of the 20th century, and Britain’s exit as an appalling act of self-harm.  But I also believe in democracy.  Johnson took the decision back to the people and won.  His victory must be respected.  The fight for freedom, pluralism, the rule of law, human rights, a free press, independent judiciaries, breathable air, peace, decency and humanity continues – and has only become more critical now that Britain has marginalized itself irreversibly in a fit of nationalist delusion.”

France: France’s trade unions defended their decision to cut power to thousands of homes, companies and even the Bank of France Wednesday to force the government to drop a wide-ranging pension reform.  The power cuts, illegal under French law, deepened the sense of chaos in the second week of nationwide strikes that have crippled transport, shut schools and brought more than half a million people onto the streets against President Emmanuel Macron’s reform attempts.

Macron condemned the power outages “in the strongest of terms” during a cabinet meeting.   He has said he is open to “improvements” to his reform plans.  The government is trying to reach a truce before Christmas, when millions of French people travel to spend the holiday with their families.  63 percent of the French want such a truce during the end-of-year holiday period, a poll for BFM TV showed.  But 57 percent oppose the pension reform.

As I’ve noted before, Macron is trying to turn the byzantine pension scheme into a single points-based one.  That would force staff at state-owned firms such as railway SNCF or utility EDF, who enjoy more generous pension plans than private-sector workers, to work longer.  SNCF train drivers currently can retire at just over 50, for example.

Turning to Asia...China reported surprisingly strong data for November, with industrial production up 6.2% year-on-year, while retail sales rose 8%, both better than October’s pace and above expectations.

The National Bureau of Statistics also said fixed asset investment rose 5.2% for the first 11 months of 2019.

The government is expected to set a GDP target of 6% for 2020 (compared with this year’s 6-6.5%) when it releases its official forecast next March in conjunction with its annual parliamentary session.  But the above data was encouraging.

Japan’s flash manufacturing PMI for December came in at 48.8 vs. 48.9 in November, with services at 50.6 vs. 50.3.

Japan’s inflation reading for November showed core CPI, which includes energy but excludes volatile fresh food prices, rose 0.5% from a year earlier, still way short of the central bank’s 2% target.  ‘Core-core’ inflation, which excludes food and energy, a la the United States, was 0.8%.

Separately, the Japanese government approved a record budget of $939 billion for the coming fiscal year (beginning April 1), the Ministry of Finance said today, as it tries to balance the need to boost growth and manage the industrial world’s heaviest public debt burden.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has prioritized growth over fiscal reform under his “Abenomics” reflationary policy of monetary stimulus and flexible spending, while planned spending has increased for eight straight years, including a $122 billion fiscal package put together this month by Abe’s cabinet to shore up growth beyond the 2020 Tokyo Olympics after hits from the U.S.-China trade war and an Oct. 1 sales tax hike to 10%.

Abe’s administration continues to count on economic expansion to boost tax revenues to help finance the debt.  Japan’s public debt is more than double the size of its $5 trillion economy, by far the highest among advanced economies.

Street Bytes

--All three major indices hit new record highs today as the preliminary trade deal with China removed a major cause of uncertainty, while the economic numbers continue to look solid.

The Dow Jones rose 1.1% this week to 28455, the S&P 500 1.7% to 3221, and Nasdaq 2.2% to 8924.

With just six trading days left in the year, the S&P is up 28.5%, its best year since 2013, with a good shot at being the best since the 1990s.

--U.S. Treasury Yields

6-mo. 1.56%  2-yr. 1.63%  10-yr. 1.92%  30-yr. 2.34%

With the strong data on the economy and stocks rallying, the long end of the yield curve took a little hit this week, but the 10-year has essentially been in a range of 1.70% to 1.95% since Oct. 11.  You’d worry a bit if we busted through 2.00% with some oomph.

--To slow down its cash burn, Boeing is pausing production of the 737 MAX jet starting in January.  After the MAX was grounded worldwide in March, Boeing kept buying parts and churning out the plane, amassing about 400 MAX jets that it can’t deliver to airlines.  

Boeing has been trying to assure everyone that the MAX would be returning to service this year, but then last week, Stephen Dickson, the administrator of the Federal Aviation Administration, said the MAX isn’t flying until 2020.

So as Boeing prepares to shut production on the 737 MAX, the hit to the suppliers will be substantial, with hundreds of companies making the plane’s parts (up to 680, by one count).  In Southern California, for example, you have companies where Boeing comprises half of their business.  If the halt lasted longer than two or three months, you’ll see substantial layoffs.

Boeing’s largest 737 supplier is Spirit AeroSystems Holdings Inc., out of Wichita, Kansas.  The company has staffed its factory with enough workers to maintain a pre-crisis build rate of 52 MAX aircraft per month and to enable an eventual increase to 57 aircraft.

So the two companies are in negotiations, no doubt to keep Spirit from having to lay off large numbers of workers, seeing as Boeing otherwise will stop paying Spirit to build and store fuselages.

Many of Boeing’s suppliers front the costs of producing the various parts, and then Boeing pays them within 90 days once said part is delivered.

And with the above, it should be no surprise that President Trump called Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg over the weekend to discuss the company’s plans.  Trump told Muilenburg he had heard Boeing was planning to shut production of the MAX, sources told the New York Times.  Muilenburg assured the president that any pause would be temporary, and that there would be no layoffs as a result of the move, the sources said.

Trump expressed concern about the health of the company overall, and asked whether Muilenburg was doing O.K. Muilenburg said Boeing’s software fix for the MAX was ready, but that it would take time for international regulators who still had to test and approve it.

Also this week, Southwest Airlines joined American in saying it would further postpone MAX flights through April 13.  And then today, United said it was cancelling all MAX flights thru June 4!

And the aforementioned Spirit Aerosystems then said it was halting production in January.

Well if all this wasn’t bad enough...Boeing’s long-awaited launch of its space capsule failed to reach the planned orbit today in an unmanned test mission to the International Space Station.  Apparently an automated timer error was at fault, something Boeing is saying tonight would have been overridden had astronauts been in control of the spacecraft.

But what a freakin’ mess.  The space capsule program, meant to end America’s reliance on Russia’s space program for rides to the space station, and beyond, is critical to Boeing’s future.

--Related to the above, General Electric Co. faces a significant hit to its cash flow from Boeing’s decision to halt production of the MAX jetliner.  GE makes all of the MAX’s engines through a joint venture with France’s Safran SA.  When Boeing in April cut monthly production of the plane to 42 from 52, it reduced GE’s quarterly cash flow by $400 million.  Imagine what a prolonged suspension of production from Boeing would do to GE.

GE is, however, expecting to get $21 billion in cash from selling biopharmaceutical assets and it intends to use proceeds to pay down debt weighing on its balance sheet.  And GE has a safety net from $20 billion in credit lines syndicated through 36 banks that expire in 2021.

And this just in...GE and Safran have received an order for Airbus engines, blunting the impact of the Boeing production halt.

--Key memory chip maker Micron Technology reported its fifth consecutive period of double-digit revenue declines in its fiscal first quarter report Wednesday, with a corresponding decline in operating income.  And the company said the outlook for the second quarter ending in February would see more of the same.

But, the company also called the current quarter “the cyclical bottom for our financial performance” and the shares rallied.  Actually, the stock was already up nearly 55% just the last six months on the hope of a bottom.

Micron has been hit by the China trade war, the Huawei ban, a slowdown in capital spending by cloud giants and developments that hurt PC sales.

So hopefully Micron’s call for better days ahead is true.

--Fiat Chrysler Automobiles and Peugeot maker PSA Group finalized terms on their merger that will form the fourth-largest auto maker in the world, and now attention turns to efforts by the combined company – which will house the Jeep, Ram, Fiat and Peugeot brands – to win over regulators in the U.S. and Europe.

Both companies are looking to navigate mounting cost pressures in the global auto business, as car makers invest $billions into electric vehicles and governments enact stricter emissions regulations.  They also face large investments to develop autonomous driving technology.

FCA said it expects $4.1 billion in annual synergies from the merger with no plant closures.

Italian Prime Minister Guiseppe Conte welcomed the merger, but said protecting jobs would be a top priority.

“It can be a great opportunity for Italy and Europe,” Conte told the daily La Stampa.  He said the deal to create the world’s fourth-largest automaker and develop environmentally friendly models would help the integration of European industry.

Conte said the deal should have no negative impact on jobs.

Unions have welcomed the decision of the two automakers to include two union representatives – one from Italy and one from France – on the 11-member board of the merged group.

But the company has factories from Portugal to Britain and they have overlapping brands and underutilized factories, especially in Italy, where FCA employs 58,000.   Something is going to have to give.

--Tesla Inc. is considering cutting the price of its China-built Model 3 sedans by 20% or more next year, betting the move will lure buyers in the world’s biggest electric-vehicle market, though that market has been slowing.

Tesla is aiming to lower costs by using more local components, allowing it to avoid tariffs.  The cars will be built at a new factory near Shanghai and start at $50,800, with lower prices in the second half of 2020, according to Bloomberg.

Tesla stock is up more than 50% since it reported a surprise third-quarter profit on Oct. 23, and at Friday’s close of $405.50, it is up from its 52-week closing low of $179 on June 3, 2019.  Rather staggering.

Meanwhile, sales of electric cars in China have been cratering after the government scaled back subsidies.

--Shares in FedEx Corp. tumbled 10% on Wednesday after the company slashed its 2020 profit forecast a second time, as it revamps its business to replace slumping air shipments with lower-profit residential deliveries.

FedEx stock has shed nearly half of its value since January 2018, when it hit an all-time high of $274.  The U.S.-China trade war has hurt the company, as has its costly and seemingly endless integration of its European TNT Express acquisition and its breakup this summer with customer-turned-rival Amazon.com Inc.

FedEx officials claim the business has bottomed and would improve substantially before the fiscal year ends in May 2020.  But investors have seen one disappointment after another for over a year now.  For example, the company’s bid to add year-round Sunday delivery has cost more than expected.

FedEx founder and CEO Fred Smith said on a conference call, “We continue to be in a period of challenges and changes.”  Smith cited “a significant bow wave of expenses to handle volumes that will largely fall” in the next quarter and a drag on the industrial economy from trade disputes and tepid business-to-business shipping.

For its second quarter, FedEx reported a profit of $560 million, compared with net income of $935 million a year earlier.  Revenue fell 3% to $17.3 billion.

--Nike Inc. posted a 10% jump in sales in the latest quarter, even after it decided to stop selling through Amazon and faced criticism for its support of disgraced running coach Alberto Salazar.

Revenue in the North American market, which accounts for the majority of Nike’s sales, rose 5% from a year ago; the gains driven by footwear, as apparel sales were flat.  The fastest-growing region was Greater China, where revenue jumped 20% from a year ago.

As for the withdrawal from Amazon, Nike said it sold a relatively small amount of goods on the site and is focusing on its own shopping apps.  Digital revenue rose 38% from a year ago.

During the quarter, Nike came under scrutiny for its silence on the Hong Kong protests and its support for Mr. Salazar, who received a four-year ban for doping.  Salazar said he planned to appeal and disputed allegations from some former female athletes that he mistreated them.

CEO Mark Parker is stepping down from his post in January and becoming executive chairman.  John Donahoe, a former eBay chief executive and a current member of Nike’s board, will take the helm.

--According to a note by Rosenblatt Securities, demand for the latest iPhone is plummeting in China, leading Apple to cut back production.  The company has seen a 30 percent drop in sales year-over-year, Rosenblatt says, citing channel checks.

The report cited the cheaper iPhone 11 as hurting the sales of the more expensive iPhone 11 Pro and 11 Pro Max, predicting that production for the entire 11 line will be scaled down 60 percent beginning in March.

“We expect more production cuts in March as Apple will see increasing headwinds from aggressive 5G smartphone launches in China and 5G service promotions in China begin in March,” analyst Jun Zhang wrote.

Apple’s share of the Chinese smartphone market has fallen to 5 percent as it struggles to compete with Chinese juggernaut Huawei, which captured 42 percent of its local market last month, according to Credit Suisse.

--China’s ambassador to Germany threatened Berlin with retaliation if it excludes Huawei Technologies Co. as a supplier of 5G wireless equipment.  I wrote last week that Huawei’s role in Germany’s 5G network was a major political issue.

“If Germany were to take a decision that leads to Huawei’s exclusion from the German market, there will be consequences,” said Ambassador Wu Ken.  “The Chinese government will not stand idly by.”

There is resistance to Huawei within Chancellor Angela Merkel’s governing coalition.

Ambassador Wu reminded his audience in Germany that German manufacturers account for a quarter of the 28 million car sold in China last year.

“Could we say one day that these German cars are no longer safe because we’re in a position to manufacture our own cars?” he said.  “No.  That is pure protectionism.”

--We learned Thursday that cybersecurity researchers discovered more than 267 million names, phone numbers and user IDs of Facebook users were discovered on the dark web.  They were taken down after tech site Comparitech discovered the records.

The database belongs to “a criminal organization” in Vietnam “according to the evidence,” the researchers said. 

Most of the affected users were American.

--California’s unemployment rate, that peaked at 12.3% in 2010, is 3.9% today, after another month of strong job gains in the state.

--The outbreak of African swine fever has spread to Indonesia with devastating effects.  On Wednesday, the country’s agriculture ministry said nearly 30,000 pigs had died from the disease in North Sumatra.  Vietnam and the Philippines have seen some of the worst outbreaks in the region as well.

In China, the virus is expected to wipe out more than half of the pig herd.

While harmless to humans, swine fever can kill pigs within a few days, and it’s 100% fatal, according to the World Organization for Animal Health.

Australia is very concerned and has tightened quarantine efforts in Darwin – the main port of entry for flights from East Timor, which recently declared a swine fever outbreak.  The feral pig population in the Darwin area could spread the infection.

--The number of passengers coming to Hong Kong on Cathay Pacific Airways fell by nearly half year on year in November amid the anti-government protests roiling the city.

Hong Kong’s flagship airline earlier said its profit expectations in the second half of 2019 would be “significantly” less than that of the first half.

--California Gov. Gavin Newsom rejected Pacific Gas & Electric’s proposal to pull itself out of bankruptcy, saying its reorganization plan falls “woefully short” of safety requirements set under state law and demanding the company make major changes if it wants to access billions of dollars in a fund to pay wildfire claims.

Newsom’s move complicates PG&E’s ability to remain in control of the company after it triggered bankruptcy in January citing an estimated $30 billion in financial liabilities from California wildfires sparked by its equipment.

Newsom’s approval was not required under state law, but PG&E asked him to weigh in, though it gave him (and his advisors) just five days to review the proposal.

The request for Newsom’s blessing happens long before state regulators perform an extensive review and formally sign off on the PG&E proposal or a competing plan next year.

--NJ Transit trains are the worst in the nation, racking up the most breakdowns of any transit system during 2018.  According to Federal Transit Administration data released Monday, NJ Transit inherits the terrible train “crown” from the Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority, known by locals as the “T,” which had the most breakdowns in 2017 and 2016.  NJT had the worst record in 2015.

Denver’s Regional Transportation District trains were second worst in 2018, followed by the “T” and then the Long Island Rail Road.  [Metro North was sixth, behind the Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority (SEPTA).]

--The Senate passed a bill that gives authorities new tools to go after illegal robocalls, the measure having passed the House earlier.  President Trump is expected to sign it.

While the legislation won’t stop billions of nuisance and scam calls, it at least arms phone companies and regulators with more ammunition to go hit the dirtballs.

--Two-thirds of American households own pets and spent an estimated $75 billion on them in 2019, according to the American Pet Products Association.  Pet foods top the list, followed by veterinary care.

The average pet owner spends $1,100 to $2,000 within the first year of owning a new pet, according to the ASPCA.

--Finally, we note the passing of Felix G. Rohatyn, another giant, a la Paul Volcker, in the world of finance.  He was 91.

Rohatyn, a former child refugee from Nazi-occupied France, became a pillar of Wall Street and trusted government adviser who will forever be known for rescuing New York City from insolvency in the 1970s.  [Think the New York Daily News’ famous headline at the height of the crisis, “Ford to City: Drop Dead,” as President Gerald Ford didn’t want the U.S. government to back loan guarantees that were the key to the rescue package Rohatyn was putting together.  Eventually, Ford relented.]

Rohatyn brokered numerous mergers and acquisitions, and counseled innumerable business leaders and politicians.

But it was his work as chairman of the state-appointed Municipal Assistance Corporation from 1975 to 1993 where he made his biggest mark; having the final say, essentially, over taxes and spending in New York, which as he was an unelected official didn’t often go over well with some.

As Sewell Chan of the New York Times wrote: “What distinguished him in both domains were his deft negotiating skills, his access to power and his understanding of it, his management of public perception (and of the journalists who shape it), and his adeptness not only with numbers but also with words.  He had a genius for finding solutions that satisfied both political and economic imperatives.”

“I get called when something is broken,” Rohatyn explained to the Associated Press in 1978.  “I’m supposed to operate, fix it up and leave as little blood on the floor as possible.”

Foreign Affairs

Iran / Iraq: Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani is finalizing a visit to Tokyo, in what will be the first such trip in two decades.  Rouhani is expected to meet Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who traveled to Tehran in June to try to ease tension between the United States and Iran in the Gulf.

Japan was formerly a major buyer of Iranian crude but stopped purchases to comply with U.S. sanctions imposed after the United States unilaterally quit the nuclear deal in May 2018.

In Iraq, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani said today that an early election was the only way out of the current unrest gripping the country and a new government should be formed soon.

Deadlock in parliament also held up the selection of an interim prime minister, causing lawmakers to miss on Thursday the constitutional deadline to name a replacement for Prime Minster Adel Abdul Mahdi, who resigned last month but has remained in office in a caretaker capacity.

Turkey: The Trump administration has said it does not consider the mass killings of Armenians in 1915 to be a genocide, contradicting a unanimous vote by the U.S. Senate.

The historic vote last week incensed Turkey, which has always denied that the killings amounted to a genocide.

Turkey’s foreign ministry on Friday summoned the U.S. ambassador to express its anger over the vote, accusing the U.S. of “politicizing history.”

Armenia says 1.5 million were killed in an effort to wipe out the ethnic group.

The killings took place in the waning days of the Ottoman Empire, the forerunner of modern-day Turkey.

In the wake of two votes last week in the House and Senate to recognize the massacres as genocide – a long-awaited symbolic victory for Armenians – Turkey's authoritarian president Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened to shut down Incirlik air base, which is based in Turkey and hosts U.S. nuclear warheads.

Erdogan called the votes “worthless” and the “biggest insult” to Turkish people. 

The Ottoman Turks deported hundreds of thousands of Armenians en masse from eastern Anatolia to the Syrian desert and elsewhere in 1915-16.  They were killed or died from starvation or disease.

The total number of Armenians dead is disputed.  Armenians say 1.5 million died.  The Republic of Turkey estimates the total to be 300,000.  According to the International Association of Genocide Scholars, the death toll was more than a million.

Afghanistan: At least 23 Afghan soldiers were killed while they were sleeping on Saturday in an insider attack in eastern Afghanistan, the latest episode of enemy infiltration that has raised concerns about a new local military force billed as the hope for holding territory recaptured from the Taliban.

The Taliban infiltrator, who was on duty at a military base in Ghazni Province, opened fire on his colleagues, wiping out almost the entire unit, officials said.  The attacker then seized all weapons and equipment in the base and joined the insurgency.

Last weekend we also had a Taliban roadside bomb attack on civilians killing 10 in the same province.

North Korea: As we await our Christmas gift from Kim Jong Un, there has been a last minute flurry of diplomacy aimed at engaging with North Korea ahead of its declared year-end deadline for talks, but as of this post, there is nothing but silence from Pyongyang, with the looming crisis expected to top the agenda at summits in China next week.

The U.S. special envoy for North Korea, Stephen Biegun, met with Chinese officials this week, after making stops in Seoul and Tokyo.

It is unclear if Biegun had any contact with North Korean officials, but his overtures and calls for new talks were not publicly answered by Pyongyang.

China and Russia teamed up this week to propose a resolution that would ease some UN Security Council sanctions on North Korea as a way of jumpstarting talks.

The United States (echoed by Britain and France) has said it is opposed to any sanctions relief at the moment, but has also said it is willing to be flexible in discussions.

Next week, Chinese, South Korean and Japanese leaders are due to meet in China, with North Korea at the top of the agenda.

Jenny Town, managing editor at the North Korea monitoring website 38 North, said on Twitter: “It’s kind of creepy that there haven’t been any statements from high level (North Korea) Foreign Ministry officials this week....The silence, even after Biegun’s speech in Seoul, makes me concerned.”

Editorial / The Economist

“Stephen Biegun sounded like a jilted spouse pleading with an errant partner.  North Korea’s recent statements about its relationship with America were ‘so hostile and negative and so unnecessary,’ America’s special envoy lamented in South Korea on December 16th.  Mr. Biegun was on a last-ditch mission to revive stalled disarmament talks with North Korea, in which the North has said it is no longer interested.  Towards the end of his remarks, Mr. Biegun directly addressed his North Korean counterparts: ‘We are here.  You know how to reach us.’

“North Korea responded to the envoy’s entreaties with icy silence.  This leaves the Korean peninsula in a precarious position as the year draws to a close.... America says North Korea must begin disarming before sanctions can be lifted or America’s military footprint in South Korea scaled back in any significant way.  North Korea insists it has already taken notable steps towards dismantling its nuclear-weapons and long-range missile programs, for which it demands some recompense before it will make any further concessions.

“The stalemate could give way to escalation.  Though America says it wants to keep talking, the North seems to have decided that it has nothing more to gain from the talks....

“The tough talk has been accompanied by a string of provocations, which have grown more flagrant in recent weeks, along with lots of martial symbolism...Analysts say (the short-range missile and engine tests) are consistent with preparations for the launch of a long-range missile, which would end Mr. Kim’s self-imposed moratorium on such tests, the basis of Mr. Trump’s claim in 2018 that there was ‘no longer a nuclear threat from North Korea.’

“Mr. Kim has also taken two well-publicized trips on horseback up Mount Paektu, the mountain hailed as the birthplace of communism in North Korea, preparing his people for ‘hard times’ and a ‘new path’ ahead....

“North Korea may be imagining that it can force America’s hand with further provocations, says Bob Carlin of Stanford University.  ‘If they think escalation puts pressure on America to make a deal they’re wrong.  They’re just backing themselves ever further into a corner.’  That leaves a return to the high tensions and aggressive rhetoric that preceded the pivot to diplomacy in early 2018 as the most likely outcome.  On December 16th Mr. Trump said ominously that America would ‘take care of’ any hostile steps by North Korea.”

Gen. Charles Brown, commander of Pacific Air Forces and air component commander for U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, said at a roundtable this week that there is a range of possibilities as to what shape our “Christmas gift” will be.

“What I would expect is some type of long-range ballistic missile would be the gift.  It’s just a matter of does it come on Christmas Eve, does it come on Christmas Day, does it come after the New Year.”

“I think there’s also the possibility that the self-imposed moratorium [on long-range tests] may go away and nothing happens right away.  [Kim Jong Un] announces it but then doesn’t shoot.”

Gen. Brown added: “There is a pattern that you see with the North Koreans, [which] is the rhetoric precedes activity, which precedes a launch.”

China / Hong Kong: President Xi Jinping had a three-day visit to the gambling hub of Macau this week to mark the 20th anniversary of its handover to China, which is seen as a reward for Macau’s stability and loyalty, unlike Hong Kong, which is still being rocked by anti-government protests for more than six months.

Xi announced measures for Macau aimed at diversifying its casino-dependent economy into a financial center, including a new stock exchange.

Earlier in the week, Chinese Premier Li Keqianq met with Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam in Beijing, saying the Asian financial hub was not yet out of the “dilemma” facing the city.

“The SAR (special administrative region) government must continue its efforts, end violence and stop the chaos in accordance with the law and restore order,” Li told Lam in his opening remarks broadcast on television.

President Xi praised Lam’s courage and commitment, and reiterated the central government’s support for the city’s police force.

But Xi also made a point of repeating past remarks reinforcing Beijing’s “unswerving determination” to protect national sovereignty in Hong Kong.

Press freedom in Hong Kong has come under an accelerating squeeze despite China’s pledges to maintain an open society, the Committee to Protect Journalists said in a report on Monday.

Large media properties have come under mainland Chinese ownership or influence, while targeted violence has underscored potential dangers for journalists who challenge China’s wishes, the report said.

Separately, on the African swine fever front, there was a story this week that Chinese criminal gangs are spreading rumors to scare farmers into selling pigs for cheaper prices, and then the healthy animals are smuggled across provinces and resold at a higher price, according to an investigative report from magazine China Comment.  Others are forging quarantine certificates.

And as you can imagine, inspectors are being bribed to look the other way.

Wholesale pork prices have more than doubled this year.

Russia: The following is part of a commentary in Defense One from Sarah Chayes, a longtime foreign policy expert and adviser to commanders of international forces in Afghanistan and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

“Not too long ago, I watched the Taliban lose major offensives in Afghanistan and yet infiltrate the same zones afterwards, gaining strategic ground.  Now I am watching Moscow do the same, inside the American homeland, and the national security establishment is hardly reacting.  It is time for us to counter this threat with appropriate force.  That means mounting a public campaign to harden targets throughout our economy, including hedge funds and their investments, educational institutions, and the public at large.  And it means publicly demanding the impeachment and removal from office of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s apologist in chief, President Donald Trump....

“Any single decision or statement Trump has made that advances Moscow’s interests might be dismissed as a one-off.  Each, alone, has been explained away as the product of his inflated ego, or of his stated goal of reducing U.S. entanglements overseas.  Taken together, however, they reveal a hair-raising pattern of compromising U.S. national security to advance Russia’s interests.

“Just in the past 18 months, Trump has lobbied to get Russia readmitted to the G-7, denigrated NATO, given Turkey a pass on buying Russian anti-aircraft missiles, eased sanctions on an oligarch with deep ties to Putin (so his company could invest in a strategic aluminum plant) and abruptly ordered the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria.  Trump has also promoted a narrative about Ukraine, concocted in the Kremlin, that serves both to disculpate Russia for sabotaging U.S. elections and to cripple a country Putin wants dismembered.  And let’s not forget our president’s heart-stopping body-language and remarks at the July 2018 summit with Putin in Helsinki.

“Impeachment and removal from office, we are often reminded, is a political step.  But to see it only that way is a dodge.  In this dangerous context it constitutes an emergency security measure. We in the national security community should mount a messaging campaign warning private individuals and institutions against flirting with Russia.  When think tanks or corporations on whose boards we serve, or companies we advise, get tempted by Moscow’s money, we should challenge their leadership.  But above all, we must demand that the U.S. official who is selling his country to its most threatening enemy be curbed – now, not a long year from now.”

Separately, Russia is temporarily shutting off many of its citizens’ access to the global Internet two days before Christmas in a test of its controversial RuNet program.  RuNet aims to boost the government’s ability to better control internal digital traffic, launch cyber and information attacks against other nations, and track and censor dissidents.

This isn’t good, sports fans.  Should Russia’s test be successful, it will no doubt inspire other countries – those of the authoritarian bent – to follow in Moscow’s footsteps.

India: Protests across the nation have been spreading after Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s implementation of a Hindu-nationalist agenda his party has long espoused, the first real popular resistance to his rule.

The protests have turned increasingly violent, as I first noted last week, after the Modi government pushed through a bill creating a simplified pathway to citizenship for immigrants who adhere to all the major religions of South Asia with the exception of Islam.

Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party deny the move, and others before it, are part of any larger agenda to promote Hindu interests or discriminate against Muslims.  The eased path to citizenship for persecuted immigrants from neighboring Muslim-majority countries should be applauded as a humanitarian gesture, they say.

Pakistan: A three-member court sentenced General Pervez Musharraf, Pakistan’s former military leader, to death over a high treason charge that has been pending since 2013.

Gen. Musharraf seized power in a military coup in 1999 and served as the country’s president from 2001 to 2008.  He is currently in Dubai after being allowed to leave the country for medical treatment in 2016.

The charge relates to Gen. Musharraf’s suspension of the constitution in 2007, when he imposed emergency rule in a move intended to extend his tenure.

Musharraf issued a statement from his hospital bed, describing the case against him as “baseless.”

Random Musings

--Presidential tracking polls....

Gallup: 45% approve of President Trump’s job performance, 51% disapprove; 89% of Republicans approve, 42% of independents*.  [Dec. 2-15]
Rasmussen: 50% approve, 48% disapprove. [Dec. 20]

*The Gallup figures a month ago were 43/54, 90, 38.  I’m on record as saying 38% is a key when it comes to independents; as in 38% or higher come Election Day is key to a Trump victory.  The current 42% is the highest since his inauguration. 

In a Fox News poll, 45% approve of Trump’s job performance, up from 42% in late October, while 53% disapprove.  [23% approve of the job Congress is doing.]

A new Quinnipiac University poll gives President Trump a 43% job approval, while 52% disapprove, the 43% matching his best rating ever in this survey.  Prior to the start of the impeachment hearings, Quinnipiac had him with a 38% approval rating, 58% disapproving.  Independents give Trump a 42% approval rating, just like Gallup, the best he has received among this group since inauguration in the Quinnipiac poll as well.

The Wall Street Journal/ NBC News poll has Trump with a 44% approval rating, 54% disapproving of how he is handling his office.

--In a national survey for USA TODAY/Suffolk University, President Trump now leads his top Democratic rivals in his bid for a second term.  Trump would defeat Joe Biden by 3 points, Bernie Sanders by 5 points, and Elizabeth Warren by 8.  [Pete Buttigieg by 10, Michael Bloomberg by 9.]

Trump’s job approval in this survey is 48%, 50% disapproval, compared with October when it was 46/52.

--In a CBS News Battleground Tracker poll of the 14 states expected to hold primaries on Super Tuesday (Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia), Joe Biden polls at 28%, Elizabeth Warren 25%, Bernie Sanders 20%, Pete Buttigieg 9% and Michael Bloomberg 4%.  [Andrew Yang, Amy Klobuchar and Cory Booker are at 3%.]

In the above-mentioned Fox News national survey of registered voters, Joe Biden leads the Democratic pack with 30%, followed by Bernie Sanders at 20%, Elizabeth Warren at 13%, Pete Buttigieg 7%, and Michael Bloomberg and Amy Klobuchar at 5% apiece.

In a new CNN/SSRS national poll of Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents, Biden is at 26%, Sanders 20%, Warren 16%, Buttigieg 8% and Bloomberg 5%.

But, interestingly, the percentage who are “very satisfied” with the field of candidates has dipped from 38% in June to 31% now.  That can benefit Bloomberg.

In the new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, Joe Biden was the choice of 28% of Democratic primary voters, Sanders 21%, Warren 18%.  No one else is in double-digits.  [Buttigieg 9%, Klobuchar 5%, Bloomberg 4%.]

In the Quinnipiac survey, Biden leads the field with 30%, followed by Warren with 17%, Sanders 16%, and Buttigieg 9%.  Michael Bloomberg receives 7% in this one.

--In Thursday night’s Democratic debate in Los Angeles, which I watched every minute of, Joe Biden had easily his best performance thus far; steady and strong.  I also thought Amy Klobuchar was solid.

Pete Buttigieg was the main target of the senators on the stage.

John Podhoretz / New York Post

“Joe Biden won Wednesday night’s Democratic debate in what was easily the strongest performance of the evening and his best in all six faceoffs this year.

“He was calm, contained, passionate and – most important for him, given past performance – focused.  But the juiciest part of the proceedings was the war of all against all that set in around 90 minutes in.

“First, Elizabeth Warren went after Pete Buttigieg for having a fundraiser attended by some billionaires in a wine cave.*

“Then Buttigieg turned on Warren.  ‘You know, according to Forbes magazine,’ he said, ‘I’m literally the only person on this stage who is not a millionaire or a billionaire.’

“And, he pointed out, the Massachusetts Senator transferred money from her Senate campaign to her presidential campaign – money she raised in ways similar to the ones the South Bend, Ind., mayor had used, using techniques Barack Obama had used.

“Having stuck Warren like a pinata, Buttigieg was looking good – until Amy Klobuchar turned on him and sliced him into ribbons.

“ ‘When we were in the last debate, mayor, you basically mocked the 100 years of experience on the stage,’ she said, and then listed the Washington-based accomplishments of others on stage and eventually pointed out that in his only statewide race, he lost by 20 points.

“Buttigieg looked stunned.  He tried to deflect her by mentioning his military service. She thanked him for it and just went on....

“Klobuchar made the argument against Buttigieg no one has bothered to make so far – that he is suggesting he is prepared to win a difficult race in 2020 when the simple fact is that in his last election, in 2015, he received all of 8,500 votes in the fourth-largest city in Indiana....

“The surprise, then, was just how strong Joe Biden was.  Watching him in all previous debates has been like watching someone unsteady trying to manage a balance team.  The ex-veep just barely survived those performances, no matter what you thought about them, and kept his poll numbers.  But last night, he owned the stage....

“With a mere six weeks to go before the first votes are cast, the front-runner cemented his front-runner status.”

*The wine industry in New York State is furious with Sen. Warren.

“Clearly Sen. Warren hasn’t been to the Finger Lakes wineries.  If she did she would see how vital the wineries are to the economic health of upstate...Our wineries are multi-generational, family owned and are the most accessible and opposite of elite,” fumed Jeff Shepley, president of the Seneca County Chamber of Commerce in the heart of the Finger Lakes wine region.

The New York wine industry accounts for 62,450 jobs and generated $13.8 billion in economic activity in 2017, according to the National Association of Wineries. 

The California wine industry generates 325,000 jobs and $57.6 billion in economic activity, the debate having been held in Los Angeles.

--Michael Bloomberg, during an interview with MSNBC, dumped on rival Joe Biden, saying the former veep is not qualified to be president because he’s never run anything.

“He’s never been a manager of an organization.  He’s never run a school system.”

And Bloomberg didn’t think much of the rest of the field.

“But no, I don’t think any of them – you know, the presidency shouldn’t be a training job.  You get in there; you’ve got to hit the ground running.  We cannot wait, after what’s happened to our country and all the things that you described, of people not being comfortable, not being optimistic about the future.”

But Bloomberg added, he thinks President Trump is so reckless that he would back any Democratic candidate as the nominee – including Elizabeth Warren – in the general election.

Separately, Bloomberg said he would shut down the nation’s remaining 251 polluting coal power plants and halt construction of 150 new gas facilities as part of a sweeping program to slash carbon emissions and boost clean energy alternatives if elected president.

Bloomberg’s plan – unveiled during a campaign stop in northern Virginia – aims to cut U.S. carbon emissions in half over 10 years and put the country on course to get 80 percent of its electricity generated from green energy sources, like wind and solar, by 2028.

The proposal would end taxpayer subsidies for fossil fuels and offer incentives for clean energy.

--Speaking at a private event in Singapore, alongside former First Lady Michelle Obama, former President Barack Obama implied the front-runners from both parties should step aside for a female candidate.

“Women, I just want you to know, you are not perfect, but what I can say pretty indisputably is that you’re better than us,” Obama reportedly said Monday.  “I’m absolutely confident that for two years if every nation on Earth was run by women, you would see a significant improvement across the board on just about everything.”

Obama’s statement was hardly a ringing endorsement for the likes of Joe Biden, 77; Michael Bloomberg, 77; Bernie Sanders, 78, or Donald Trump, 73.

“If you look at the world and look at the problems it’s usually old people, usually old men, not getting out of the way,” Obama continued.

Obama, 58, said powerful men are too stuck in their ways to move the world forward.

“They cling to power, they are insecure, they have outdated ideas and the energy and fresh vision and new approaches are squashed,” he said.

--Great news today on Long Island, New York, as federal authorities busted up the murderous MS-13 gang – hauling in 96 members and associates in the largest takedown of the group in New York state history.

The busts were the result of a nearly two-year federal wiretapping investigation.

--On Tuesday, Australia experienced its hottest day on record with the national average temperature reaching a high of 40.9C (105.6F).  Yikes.

The Bureau of Meteorology said the temp exceeded the previous record of 40.3C set on Jan. 7, 2013.

Needless to say, this isn’t good, given the severe drought the country is already in along with the brushfire crisis.  [Two firemen died today fighting one such fire.]

Perth, the capital of Western Australia, recorded three days in a row above 40C (104.0F).

Parts of the state of New South Wales, of which Sydney is the capital, were forecast to hit the mid-40s on Thursday (44C being 111.2F, for example).

Meanwhile, a backburning operation intended to contain a massive wildfire about 160 miles northwest of Sydney, badly backfired, damaging buildings and cutting off major roads.

--Iceland had a huge blizzard that brought 100 mph winds and “yards” of snow to some areas, with thousands losing power.  The Icelandic Met Office issued an unprecedented “red alert.”  One mountain weather station had sustained winds of 130 mph, with gusts as high as 149.  Goodness gracious.  Even trolls don’t like this kind of weather.

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Pray for the men and women of our armed forces during this holiday season.

God bless America.

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Gold $1481
Oil $60.37...first weekly close above $60 since July 12.

Returns for the week 12/16-12/20

Dow Jones  +1.1%  [28455]
S&P 500  +1.7%  [3221]
S&P MidCap  +2.0%
Russell 2000  +2.1%
Nasdaq  +2.2%  [8924]

Returns for the period 1/1/19-12/20/19

Dow Jones  +22.0%
S&P 500  +28.5%
S&P MidCap  +24.2%
Russell 2000  +24.0%
Nasdaq  +34.5%

Bulls 57.7
Bears 17.3

Happy Hanukkah and Merry Christmas!  Travel safe.

Brian Trumbore

 

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