Week in Review

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Week in Review

11/14/2020

For the week 11/9-11/13

[Posted 10:00 PM ET, Friday]

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Special thanks to longtime supporter Jeannette N. and an old friend, Dan H.

Edition 1,126

The 2020 Presidential Election

Electoral College

Joe Biden 306…Donald Trump 232….the exact reverse of 2016.

President Trump was at his Virginia golf course when the presidential race was called for Biden last Saturday with a win in Pennsylvania.  The president then issued a statement:

“We all know why Joe Biden is rushing to falsely pose as the winner, and why his media allies are trying so hard to help him: they don’t want the truth to be exposed. The simple fact is this election is far from over. Joe Biden has not been certified as the winner of any states, let alone any of the highly contested states headed for mandatory recounts, or states where our campaign has valid and legitimate legal challenges that could determine the ultimate victor.  In Pennsylvania, for example, our legal observers were not permitted meaningful access to watch the counting process.  Legal votes decide who is president, not the news media.

“Beginning Monday, our campaign will start prosecuting our case in court to ensure election laws are fully upheld and the rightful winner is seated.  The American People are entitled to an honest election: that means counting all legal ballots, and not counting any illegal ballots. This is the only way to ensure the public has full confidence in our election. It remains shocking that the Biden campaign refuses to agree with this basic principle and wants ballots counted even if they are fraudulent, manufactured, or cast by ineligible or deceased voters.  Only a party engaged in wrongdoing would unlawfully keep observers out of the count room – and then fight in court to block their access.

“So what is Biden hiding?  I will not rest until the American People have the honest vote count they deserve and the Democracy demands.”

The president has claimed without proof that 2.7 million votes for him had been “deleted.”

Saturday night, President-elect Biden and Kamala Harris appeared at a victory celebration in Wilmington, Delaware.

Following a day of celebrations in many cities across the United States, and a few spots in Europe, Biden pledged to unite the country.

“The people of this nation have spoken. They’re delivered us a clear victory, a convincing victory, a victory for ‘we the people.’”

“I’ve lost a couple of elections myself. But now, let’s give each other a chance. It’s time to put away the harsh rhetoric – to lower the temperature, to see each other again, to listen to each other again.  To make progress, we must stop treating our opponents as our enemy.”

“This is the time to heal in America,” he said.

“Tonight, the whole world is watching America,” Biden continued.  “I believe at our best America is a beacon for the globe, and we lead not by the example of our power, but by the power of our example.”

Since Saturday, President Trump has done nothing but attempt to further delegitimize the electoral process, his constant diminishing of norms corrosive to the essence of our democracy.

And as Covid-19 ravaged the country with unfathomable daily case numbers (over 180,000 today, with another 1,400 deaths), the president has said zero about it, except late today when he talked about vaccines.  Nothing about the incredible pain being felt throughout the country.

The president’s performance this week has been nothing but a disgraceful dereliction of duty.  President Trump said nothing about the six U.S. servicemen who died in what appears to be an accident in the Sinai, part of a multinational peacekeeping effort. The same week China firmly cemented Hong Kong’s demise as a once-thriving democracy.  Again, from the president, nothing.

As more than one political analyst observed, it was as if Donald Trump had checked out, except he tweeted endlessly about election fraud and how he was wronged by a rigged system.

Many of us rightfully worry what this man will do his final 70 days in office.

Thursday, a top committee out of the Department of Homeland Security’s ‘Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency’ (CISA) refuted Trump’s claim of widespread fraud and irregularities in the election, calling it “the most secure in American history.”

Added the Election Infrastructure Government Coordinating Council Executive Committee: “There is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes or was in any way compromised.”

Various media outlets have been reaching out to state election officials, both Republican and Democrat, for evidence of election fraud in their states and they are finding none of any significance whatsoever.

Frank LaRose, a Republican who serves as Ohio’s secretary of state, told the New York Times, “There’s a great human capacity for inventing things that aren’t true about elections. The conspiracy theories and rumors and all those things run rampant. For some reason, elections breed that type of mythology.”

Steve Simon, a Democrat who is Minnesota’s secretary of state, said: “I don’t know of a single case where someone argued that a vote counted when it shouldn’t have or didn’t count when it should. There was no fraud.”

“Kansas did not experience any widespread, systematic issues with voter fraud, intimidation, irregularities or voting problems,” a spokeswomen for Scott Schwab, the Republican secretary of state said in an email Tuesday.  “We are very pleased with how the election has gone up to this point.”

Of course, there were small issues in all states, common to all elections, like illegal or double voting, errors in math.  All states conduct their own postmortems as part of the final certification process.

In an interview for CBS’ “60 Minutes,” airing Sunday, former President Barack Obama said Trump’s allegations of election fraud were motivated by the fact that “the president doesn’t like to lose.”

“I’m more troubled by the fact that other Republican officials, who clearly know better, are going along with this,” he added.  “It’s one more step in delegitimizing not just the incoming Biden administration, but democracy generally, and that’s a dangerous path.”

Obama is spot on.

Meanwhile, Trump is carrying out his grudges, firing Defense Secretary Mark Esper by tweet, and firing others in the Pentagon, replacing them with loyalists as rumors persist that CIA Director Gina Haspel and FBI Director Chris Wray are next, which shouldn’t give any American a warm, fuzzy feeling regardless of who you voted for.

And there was the buffoon, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo telling reporters at State Department headquarters, “There will be a smooth transition to a second Trump administration.”

Pompeo, one of the most worthless secretaries of state in history, then repeated some of the same evidence-free claims about voter fraud that Trump has citied as his basis for refusing to concede the election.

“We must make sure that any vote that wasn’t lawful ought not be counted.  That dilutes your vote, if it’s done improperly. Gotta get that right, when we get it right, we’ll get it right, we’re in good shape.”

Speaking during a press conference near his home in Delaware, Tuesday, Joe Biden said Trump, Pompeo and other administration officials are making fools out of themselves.

“I just think it’s an embarrassment, quite frankly,” Biden said.  “It will not help the president’s legacy.”

Very few Republicans have been speaking out against the voter-fraud claims, but Massachusetts Republican Gov. Charlie Baker said Tuesday, “I’m dismayed to hear the baseless claims coming from the president and his team and many other elected officials in Washington.”

Baker said he didn’t vote for Trump in 2016 or 2020.

Former President George W. Bush congratulated Biden in a phone call Sunday and said that, while President Trump has the right to pursue legal challenges and recounts, the 2020 race was “fundamentally fair” and “its outcome is clear.”

In a statement, Bush said:

“Though we have political differences, I know Joe Biden to be a good man, who has won his opportunity to lead and unify our country.  The President-elect reiterated that while he ran as a Democrat, he will govern for all Americans.  I offered him the same thing I offered Presidents Trump and Obama: my prayers for his success, and my pledge to help in any way I can.”

Bush said Trump “has the right to request recounts and pursue legal challenges,” but said Biden’s win was clear.

“The American people can have confidence that this election was fundamentally fair, its integrity will be upheld, and its outcome is clear,” Bush said.

This afternoon, in talking about ‘Operation Warp Speed’ in the Rose Garden, President Trump appeared to acknowledge for the first time the possibility of an upcoming Biden administration, though he stopped short of conceding.

“Ideally, we won’t go to a lockdown.  I will not go, this administration will not be going to a lockdown,” he said.  “Hopefully the, the, uh, whatever happens in the future – who knows which administration will be.  I guess time will tell.”

A slight crack in the façade.  At least a growing number of Republican senators are urging the administration to allow Biden access to presidential daily intelligence briefings, which the White House has blocked.

But Trump also tweeted this afternoon:

“Heartwarming to see all of the tremendous support out there, especially the organic Rallies that are springing up all over the Country, including a big one on Saturday in D.C.  I may even try to stop by and say hello. This Election was Rigged, from Dominion all the way up & down!”

And:

“For years the Dems have been preaching how unsafe and rigged our elections have been.  Now they are saying what a wonderful job the Trump Administration did in making 2020 the most secure election ever. Actually this is true, except for what the Democrats did.  Rigged Election!”

And this, tonight:

“Georgia Secretary of State, a so-called Republican (RINO), won’t let the people checking the ballots see the signatures for fraud.  Why?  Without this the whole process is very unfair and close to meaningless.  Everyone knows that we won the state. Where is @BrianKempGA?”

Geezuz, just shut up!

Karl Rove / Wall Street Journal

“To win, Mr. Trump must prove systemic fraud, with illegal votes in the tens of thousands. There is no evidence of that so far.  Unless some emerges quickly, the president’s chances in court will decline precipitously when states start certifying results, as Georgia will on Nov. 20, followed by Pennsylvania and Michigan on Nov. 23, Arizona on Nov. 30, and Wisconsin and Nevada on Dec. 1. By seating one candidate’s electors, these certifications will raise the legal bar to overturn state results and make it even more difficult for Mr. Trump to prevail before the Electoral College meets Dec. 14.

“TV networks showed jubilant crowds in major cities celebrating Mr. Biden’s victory; they didn’t show the nearly equal number of people who mourned Mr. Trump’s defeat.  U.S. politics remains polarized and venomous. Closing out this election will be a hard but necessary step toward restoring some unity and political equilibrium.  Once his days in court are over, the president should do his part to unite the country by leading a peaceful transition and letting grievances go.”

John R. Bolton / Washington Post

“As of this writing, the Republican Party has not suffered permanent damage to its integrity and reputation because of President Trump’s post-election rampaging. This will not be true much longer.

“It is simply a truism that Trump has a legal right to pursue all appropriate election-law remedies to ensure an accurate, lawful vote count.  To be credible, however, any aggrieved candidate must at some point produce valid legal arguments and persuasive evidence.

“Trump has so far failed to do so, and there is no indication he can.  If he can’t his ‘right’ to contest the election is beside the point. The real issue is the grievous harm he is causing to public trust in America’s constitutional system. Trump’s time is running out, even as his rhetoric continues escalating. And time is running out for Republicans who hope to maintain the party’s credibility, starting with Georgia’s two Senate runoffs in January. Here is the cold political reality: Trump is enhancing his own brand (in his mind) while harming the Republican brand. The party needs a long internal conversation about the post-Trump era, but first it needs to get there honorably.

“Consider the competing interests.  Donald Trump’s is simple and straightforward: Donald Trump. The near-term Republican interest is winning the Georgia runoffs. The long-term Republican interest emphatically involves wining those Senate seats, but it also involves rejecting Trump’s personalized, erratic, uncivil, unpresidential and ultimately less-than-effective politics and governance.

“One approach holds that coddling Trump while he trashed the U.S. electoral system will help him get over the loss, thereby making it easier to reconcile him to leaving the Oval Office. But his coddling strategy is exactly backward. The more Republicans kowtow, the more Trump believes he is still in control and the less likely he will do what normal presidents do: make a gracious concession speech; fully cooperate with the president-elect in a smooth transition process; and validate the election process itself by joining his successor at the Jan. 20 inauguration….

“Republican passivity risks additional negative consequences for the country.  Trump is engaging in what could well be a systematic purge of his own administration, starting with the utterly unjustified firing of Defense Secretary Mark T. Esper this week and continuing through high- and mid-level civilian offices in the department.  Isa Gordon-Hagerty, head of the National Nuclear Safety Administration, was forced to resign. Washington is filled with rumors that the CIA and FBI directors are next.

“This is being done with just 10 weeks left in the administration. All transitions bring uncertainty, but to decapitate substantial parts of the national security apparatus during such a period for no reason other than personal pique is irresponsible and dangerous. Republicans know this.

“Simultaneously, Trump is frustrating Biden’s transition, based on the 2000 precedent, when George W. Bush’s transition was delayed for 37 days by Al Gore’s contesting the Florida results. Two wrongs don’t make a right. It implies no acknowledgement of Biden’s legitimacy as president-elect for Trump to facilitate prudent transition planning, certainly in the national security field, nor in finalizing distribution plans for a coronavirus vaccine, which will largely occur next year.  At least, that’s how a confident, mature, responsible president would see it.

“For the good of America, the 2020 election needs to be brought expeditiously to the conclusion that all logic tells us is coming.  National security requires that the transition get underway effectively. These are Republican values. We will acknowledge reality sooner or later.  For the good of the party as well as the country, let’s make it sooner.”

In a hopeful sign, a Reuters/Ipsos poll published Tuesday found that 79% of Americans believe Biden won the election, including nearly 6 in 10 Republicans.

Just 3% say Trump won, according to the poll, while 13% say the election hasn’t been decided.

Global Reaction to Joe Biden’s Win

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Wednesday he and President-elect Biden agreed in a call that the United Kingdom and United States should stand together once more in defending their values in the world.

After speaking to Biden on Tuesday, Johnson told parliament: “One of the many merits of the excellent conversation I had yesterday with President-elect Joe Biden was that we were strongly agreed on the need for, once again, for the United Kingdom and the United States to stand together, to stick up for our values around the world.”

“I am delighted to find the many areas in which the incoming Biden/Harris administration is able to make common cause with us.”

The leaders of most Western European allied states appeared eager to sound optimistic notes about working with the incoming Biden administration on a host of issues from Covid to climate change and seemed to ignore Trump’s protests.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, in an official statement: “I look forward to working with President Biden.  Our trans-Atlantic friendship is indispensable if we are to deal with the major challenges of our time.”

French President Emmanuel Macron tweeted: “The Americans have chosen their President.  Congratulations @JoeBiden and @KamalaHarris!  We have a lot to do to overcome today’s challenges.  Let’s work together!”

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said, “I congratulate Joe Biden and Kamala Harris on their election as the next President and Vice President of the United States of America.”

Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte tweeted: “Congratulations to the American people and institutions for an outstanding turnout of democratic vitality. We are ready to work with the President-elect @JoeBiden to make the transatlantic relationship stronger. The U.S. can count on Italy as a solid Ally and a strategic partner.”

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg congratulated the incoming administration, tweeting, “I know Joe Biden as a strong supporter of our Alliance & look forward to working closely with him. A strong #NATO is good for both North America & Europe.”

European Council President Charles Michel: “We welcome the record voter turnout. We follow the process of certification of results and are confident that the U.S. electoral system will soon announce the final outcome. The EU underlines, once again, its commitment to a strong transatlantic partnership and stands ready to engage with the elected President, new Congress and Administration.”

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky seemed to take a swipe at Trump and his allies, who have tried to coerce Zelensky and others Ukranian officials into delivering political dirt on Biden, saying a tweet, “Congratulations to @JoeBiden @KamalaHarris! #Ukraine is optimistic about the future of the strategic partnership with the #UnitedStates. [Ukraine] and [The United States] have always collaborated on security, trade, investment, democracy, fight against corruption.  Our friendship becomes only stronger!”

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi posted a special shoutout to Vice President-elect Kamala Harris, whose mother immigrated from India to the United States.  “Your success is pathbreaking, and a matter of immense pride not just for your chittis, but also for all Indian-Americans. I am confident that the vibrant India-U.S. ties will get even stronger with your support and leadership.”

China finally congratulated Joe Biden and Kamala Harris on Friday, ending days of speculation about when Beijing would formally acknowledge the victory.

“We have been following the reaction on this U.S. presidential election from both within the United States and from the international community,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin told a briefing in Beijing today.  “We respect the American people’s choice and extend congratulations to Mr. Biden and Ms. Harris.”

China’s acknowledgement came after multiple television networks projected Biden would defeat Trump in Arizona.

But Russia’s Vladimir Putin had yet to weigh in, the Kremlin having interfered on Trump’s behalf in the 2016 election and again in 2020, according to the FBI and CIA.

Instead, Russian state TV’s most controversial news anchor Dmitry Kiselev delivered a stinging rebuke of the election.

“The U.S. electoral system is so archaic, such a dinosaur, I can’t bring myself to call it democratic,” he told viewers of his flagship weekly news show.

“U.S. President Trump speaks of mass ballot-stuffing by the Democrats, he says fraudulent methods are being used to steal the election from him.”

Kiselev omitted to say the president had provided no evidence for this.

By demeaning American democracy in the eyes of the Russian people, the aim of a Kiselev is to make Russians feel better about their own horrid political system.

Editorial / The Economist

“(Rather) than pile demand upon needy demand, America’s allies should go out of their way to show that they have learned to pull their weight.  NATO partners, for example, should not relax defense spending just because Mr. Trump is no longer bullying them. Germany should pay heed to French efforts to build European defense capacity – there is scope to do so without undermining NATO. Europeans could lend a bigger hand to France in the Sahel.  In Asia the Quad [Ed. informal partnership between U.S., India, Japan and Australia] could keep deepening naval and other cooperation.  Japan and South Korea should restrain their feuding. Taiwan ought to make a more serious contribution to its own defense.

“Allies should also work with America to repair the international order.  They can support efforts to resist Chinese or Russian rule-bending.  Many countries will want to join Mr. Biden’s efforts at concerted carbon-cutting.

“Mr. Biden will face a world full of problems, but he will also start with strengths. Thanks to Mr. Trump, he has sanctions on adversaries including Iran and Venezuela that he can use as bargaining chips. And among friends, he can seek to convert relief at renewed American engagement into stronger burden-sharing.  His allies would be wise to answer that call with enthusiasm.”

For his part, President-elect Biden tapped his longtime adviser Ron Klain as his incoming White House chief of staff.

Klain served as Biden’s chief of staff during his vice presidency, helped lead the Obama administration’s response to the Ebola outbreak and has reportedly taken an interest in government reaction to the coronavirus pandemic.

Klain called it the “honor of a lifetime” to be given the position.

But assuming the GOP holds onto the two Georgia senate seats in the Jan. 5 runoff, or at worst gains a split, maintaining a majority, President-elect Biden’s economic plan is largely out the window, certainly in terms of tax policy.

Biden is proposing $7.3 trillion in new spending over 10 years, including upgrading the nation’s roads, bridges and highways; building a clean energy economy; investing in research and development to bolster manufacturing; providing tuition-free community college; ensuring access to affordable child care and universal preschool…etc.

To help pay for this, Biden plans to raise taxes by about $4 trillion over the next decade, including an increase on the corporate tax rate, as well as taxing capital gains and dividends at ordinary rates for incomes above $1 million.

But because of the uncertainty in Georgia, it’s not worth discussing the Biden plan in detail further at this point because it could be irrelevant.

That said, a Biden administration will change the tone on trade and immigration.  He has also voiced support for a robust relief measure that includes another federal bonus to weekly unemployment benefits, more aid for struggling small businesses and financially distressed states, and another round of stimulus checks to most households.

And on Jan. 20 he’ll roll back some of President Trump’s executive orders, particularly on immigration.

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Covid-19 death tolls, as of tonight….

World…1,309,147
USA…249,975
Brazil…164,946
India…129,225
Mexico…97,624
UK…51,304
Italy…44,139
France…43,892
Spain…40,769
Iran…40,582
Peru…35,106
Argentina…35,045
Colombia…33,669
Russia…32,443

Source: worldometers.info

U.S. daily death tolls…Sun. 572; Mon. 641; Tues. 1,465; Wed. 1,479; Thurs. 1,190; Fri. 1,395.

In my Wednesday comparison between the Euro six (Germany, Italy, France, Spain, UK and Belgium) and the U.S., both with similar populations, this week, on Wednesday the Euro six had 135,719 cases and 2,462 deaths, while the United States was at 142,906 and 1,479.

This is the last time I’ll do the above.  I wanted to make a point months ago that the U.S. was one month behind Europe in terms of looming pain and I proved that.

Europe writ large today had 280,000 cases with nearly 4,700 deaths!

Covid Bytes

--Pfizer says an early peek at its vaccine data suggests the shots may be 90 percent effective at preventing Covid-19, indicating the company is on track later this month to file an emergency use application with U.S. regulators.

Monday’s announcement doesn’t mean a vaccine is imminent: It’s an interim analysis, from an independent data monitoring board, looking at 94 infections recorded so far in a study that has enrolled nearly 44,000 people in the U.S. and five other countries.

Pfizer did not provide any more details about those cases and cautioned the initial protection rate might change by the time the study ends.

You also can’t ignore the particulars of the vaccine.  It has to be stored at around minus 70 degrees Celsius (minus 94 Fahrenheit) until shortly before it is injected.

And you have to take two shots, three weeks apart.  So that requires coordination, and trained personnel.

We’ll be talking about the logistics for weeks to come.

--The Food and Drug Administration has granted emergency authorization of a Covid-19 antibody treatment made by Eli Lilly that is similar to a therapy (Regeneron) given to President Trump shortly after he contracted the coronavirus.

The decision is seen as a valuable tool to treat patients with Covid, hospitals becoming totally overwhelmed amidst the surge and doctors with few options to treat the disease.

Eli Lilly said that its treatment, called bamlanivimab, should be administered as soon as possible after a positive coronavirus test, and within 10 days of developing symptoms.  The authorization applies only to people newly infected with the virus, and the agency said it should not be used in hospitalized patients.

--Ukrainian President Zelensky announced on Monday he had tested positive for the coronavirus, as well as three other cabinet members and aides.  And then two days later, Zelensky was in the hospital.

The president’s wife, Olena, contracted Covid in June and spent several weeks in a hospital.

Zelensky had said earlier on Monday that Ukraine may introduce a lockdown in an effort to curb the pandemic, and then the Cabinet voted Wednesday to install one on weekends.

Thursday, he addressed the nation in two videos from the hospital saying he felt good and the government was working as normal.

--Japan reported a record high of 1,634 new coronavirus infections on Thursday, the previous record being on Aug. 7.  Japan is shifting toward easing restrictions to boost the economy hit by the pandemic, such as promoting domestic travel, and preparing for next year’s postponed Tokyo Olympics.  However, Japan Medical Association warned on Wednesday of a third wave of coronavirus infections in the country, seeing the cases rising since last month.

--Taiwan has been angered by its inability to fully access the World Health Organization, of which it is not a member due to China’s objections, during the pandemic.  This week it again failed to get into the World Health Assembly, the WHO’s decision-making body.

Taiwan’s government said posts in support of Taiwan on the WHO’s Facebook page were being censored by the WHO and blocked.  Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry said this ran contrary to the neutrality the WHO should be upholding.

The WHO said it was facing an “onslaught” of cyberattacks from Taiwanese activists.  Taiwan disputed this and said it was “just people leaving messages to support Taiwan, including our allies,” a foreign ministry spokeswoman said.

--More than 15,000 mink in the United States have died of the coronavirus since August, and authorities are keeping about a dozen farms under quarantine while they investigate the cases, state agriculture officials said.

Global health officials are eying the animals as a potential risk for people after Denmark last week embarked on a plan to eliminate all of its 17 million mink, saying a mutated coronavirus strain could move to humans and evade future Covid-19 vaccines.

The states of Utah, Wisconsin and Michigan – where the coronavirus has killed mink – said they do not plan to cull animals and are monitoring the situation in Denmark.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture said it is working with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to test and monitor infected farms.  The U.S. has 359,850 mink bred to produce babies, known as kits, and produced 2.7 million pelts last year.  Wisconsin is the largest mink-producing state.

Coronavirus is first thought to have jumped from animals to humans in China, possibly via bats or another animal at a food market in Wuhan, although many questions remain.

--Most Covid-19 cases in large U.S. cities stem from visits to just a few types of places, a new study published in the journal Nature suggests.

Restaurants, gyms, hotels and houses of worship are among the 10 percent of locations that would appear to account for 80 percent of the infections.

Reducing the establishments’ capacity to 20 percent, as opposed to shutting them down entirely, could curb transmissions by 80 percent, a co-author of the study, Stanford Professor Jure Leskovec, said at a briefing.

“Our work highlights that it doesn’t have to be all or nothing,” Leskovec said.

--You know how I expressed dismay last week over the Halloween parties I saw being held in my town that night?  New Jersey officials blamed them this week for part of our surge in cases.  And tonight, my town of Summit is on alert because a local restaurant had a slew of cases among its workers.  I have yet to go into a restaurant since the pandemic started for more than takeout.

Next week I may give you my personal, soon-to-be-famous, recipe for “gruel,” featuring canned food you can get at Dollar Tree….for a dollar!  Even our Dr. Bortrum likes it.

Trump World

--All eyes on Georgia, with the two runoff races Jan. 5 that will determine control of the Senate, currently 50 Republican, 48 Democrat after seats were decided officially in North Carolina and Alaska in favor of the Republican incumbents this week.

The Georgia races will test just how far the political landscape has shifted in a state Joe Biden won by 10,000, as it undergoes a recount/audit before certification, after Trump took Georgia by 5.2% in 2016.

Should Biden win Georgia’s 16 electoral votes, he will be the first Democratic presidential nominee to capture the state since 1992.

--Attorney General William Barr told federal prosecutors on Tuesday to look into any “substantial” allegations of voting irregularities.

Barr’s directive to prosecutors prompted the top lawyer overseeing voter fraud investigations to resign in protest.

It came after days of attacks on the integrity of the election by Trump and Republican allies, who have alleged widespread voter fraud, without providing evidence.

Richard Pilger, who for years has served as director of the Election Crimes Branch, announced in an internal email he was resigning from his post after he read “the new policy and its ramifications.”

Biden’s campaign said Barr was fueling Trump’s far-fetched allegations of fraud.

“Those are the very kind of claims that the president and his lawyer are making unsuccessfully every day, as their lawsuits are laughed out of one court after another,” said Bob Bauer, a senior adviser to Biden.

--Several conservative Supreme Court justices joined liberals voicing skepticism that the entire Affordable Care Act must fall because of one change Congress made in 2017, suggesting the law could survive its latest test in the high court.

A group of Republican-leaning states, backed by the Trump administration, contends the 2017 tax law that reduced to zero the ACA’s penalty for failing to have insurance destroyed its constitutional foundation.  The Supreme Court found in 2012 that the law was justified under Congress’ power to levy taxes.

Chief Justice John Roberts told Texas’ lawyer, Kyle Hawkins, the state solicitor general: “It’s hard for you to argue that Congress intended the entire act to fall if the mandate were struck down when the same Congress that lowered the penalty to zero did not even try to repeal the rest of the act.”

Justice Brett Kavanaugh said that even if elimination of the penalty made the mandate unconstitutional, the court’s precedents required upholding as much of a statute as possible, i.e., the rest of the ACA could stand independently.

“It does seem fairly clear that the proper remedy would be to sever the mandate provision and leave the rest of the act in place, the provisions regarding pre-existing conditions and the rest,” Justice Kavanaugh told Hawkins. 

New Justice Amy Coney Barrett avoided signaling her thinking on the case with her questioning.  [Jess Bravin / Wall Street Journal]

--Trump tweets:

“WE WILL WIN!”

“WE ARE MAKING BIG PROGRESS.  RESULTS START TO COME IN NEXT WEEK. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”

“I WON THIS ELECTION, BY A LOT!”

“71,000,000 Legal Votes. The most EVER for a sitting President!”

“THE OBSERVERS WERE NOT ALLOWED INTO THE COUNTING ROOMS. I WON THE ELECTION, GOT 71,000,000 LEGAL VOTES. BAD THINGS HAPPENED WHICH OUR OBSERVERS WERE NOT ALLOWED TO SEE. NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE. MILLIONS OF MAIL-IN BALLOTS WERE SENT TO PEOPLE WHO NEVER ASKED FOR THEM!”

“Tens of thousands of votes were illegally received after 8 P.M. on Tuesday, Election Day, totally and easily changing the results in Pennsylvania and certain other razor thin states.  As a separate matter, hundreds of thousands of Votes were illegally not allowed to be OBSERVED…

…This would ALSO change the Election result in numerous States, including Pennsylvania, which everyone thought was easily won on Election Night, only to see a massive lead disappear, without anyone being allowed to OBSERVE, for long intervals of time, what then happened…

“…Bad things took place during those hours where LEGAL TRANSPARENCY was viciously & crudely not allowed. Tractors blocked doors & windows were covered with thick cardboard so that observers could not see into the count rooms.  BAD THINGS HAPPENED INSIDE.  BIG CHANGES TOOK PLACE!”

“Since when does the Lamestream Media call who our next president will be?  We have all learned a lot in the last two weeks!”

“Georgia will be a big presidential win, as it was the night of the Election!”

“Wisconsin is looking very good. Needs a little time statutorily. Will happen soon!”

“Nevada is turning out to be a cesspool of Fake Votes. @schlapp & @AdamLaxalt are finding things that, when released, will be absolutely shocking!”

“If Joe Biden were President, you wouldn’t have the Vaccine for another four years, nor would the @US_FDA have ever approved it so quickly. The bureaucracy would have destroyed millions of lives!”

“@FoxNews, @QuinnipiacPoll, ABC/WaPo, NBC/WSJ were so inaccurate with their polls on me, that it really is tampering with an Election. They were so far off in their polling, and in their attempt to suppress – that they should be called out for Election Interference…

“…ABC/WaPo had me down 17 points in Wisconsin, the day before the election, and I WON! In Iowa, the polls had us 4 points down, and I won by 8.2%! Fox News and Quinnipiac were wrong on everything…

“…The worst polling ever, and then they’ll be back in four years to do it again. This is much more then (sic) voter and campaign finance suppression!”

“WATCH FOR MASSIVE BALLOT COUNTING ABUSE AND, JUST LIKE THE EARLY VACCINE, REMEMBER I TOLD YOU SO!”

“NOW 73,000,000 LEGAL VOTES!”

“From 200,000 votes to less than 10,000 votes.  If we can audit the total votes cast, we will easily win Arizona also!”

“@FoxNews daytime ratings have completely collapsed. Weekend daytime even WORSE.  Very sad to watch this happen, but they forgot what made them successful, what got them there. They forgot the Golden Goose. The biggest difference between the 2016 Election, and 2020, was @FoxNews!”

Wall Street and the Economy

It was a light week for economic news, just the inflation data for October, with the producer price index up 0.3%, 0.1% ex-food and energy; 0.5% year-over-year, 1.1% yoy on core.

Consumer prices were unchanged both on headline and core, 0.0%, while the CPI was up 1.2% from 12 months ago, 1.6% ex-the stuff we use.

Weekly jobless claims were at a still too high 709,000, but coming down.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in comments on Thursday that while he still sees the U.S. recovery on a “solid path,” the turn for the worse in the pandemic could deal the economy a blow.

“We have got new cases at a record level, we have seen a number of states begin to reimpose limited activity restrictions, and people may lose confidence that it is safe to go out,” Powell said in webcast comments to a European Central Bank forum.  Even with the good potential vaccine news, “the next few months could be challenging.”

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said on Tuesday he did not see a need for a giant coronavirus relief bill and there was bipartisan interest in passing an omnibus appropriations bill before the end of the year.

“We need to think about, if we’re gonna come up with a bipartisan package here, about what size is appropriate,” McConnell told reporters.  “It seems to me that snag that hung us up for months is still there.  I don’t think the current situation demands a multi-trillion dollar package. So I think it should be highly targeted, very similar to what I put on the floor in both October and September.”

The Democratic House passed a $2.2 trillion package, while the Republican Senate has favored a $500 billion plan.

In other words, no aid for the Blue states.

On the trade front, the European Union will “regrettably” impose tariffs on imports of $4 billion in U.S. goods from Tuesday, EU Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis said, while hoping that President-elect Joe Biden will foster a sharp improvement in transatlantic ties.  The bloc will exercise the right to counter-measures awarded to it last month by the World Trade Organization in a case against Boeing, part of a long-running U.S.-EU battle over civil aviation subsidies. 

“We have made clear at every stage that we want to settle this long-running issue,” Dombrovskis told a news conference on Monday.  But the bloc would impose tariffs on U.S. exports of planes and parts and a range of farm and industrial products.

U.S. tariffs on $7.5 billion of EU products after a parallel WTO case against Airbus have been in place for over a year.  The European Union says the main objective of its own measures is to persuade the United States to negotiate a solution, arguing that the chief beneficiaries of the 16-year-old dispute are competitors, such as China’s COMAC (Commercial Aircraft Corp. of China).

I’ve noted a few times in the past that we are incredibly naïve re the aircraft game not to understand that China has been ripping off both Boeing’s and Airbus’ technology and soon they will have a competitive product…they already have a narrow, single-aisle plane they are taking orders on.

The EU is hoping, in the words of German Economy Minister Peter Altmaier, to have a “new start in trade policy between the United States and all member states” in a Biden administration.

Europe and Asia

We had a flash reading on third-quarter GDP for the eurozone, up 12.6% compared with the previous quarter, when GDP had decreased by 11.8% in Q2.

Compared with the same quarter a year ago, GDP in Q3 2020 is down 4.4% from Q3 2019. 

By comparison, for the third quarter in the U.S., GDP was up 7.4% over Q2, and -2.9% from a year ago. 

In terms of Q3 2020 over Q3 2019….

Germany -4.2%, France -4.3%, Italy -4.7%, Spain -8.7%, Netherlands -2.5% and UK -9.6%.

Industrial production in September for the euro region compared with August was down by 0.4%.  In September 2020 compared with September 2019, industrial production decreased by 6.8% in the euro area.

[Both GDP and industrial production data courtesy of Eurostat.]

Brexit: President-elect Biden stressed the importance of protecting Northern Ireland’s peace deal in the Brexit process when he called Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Tuesday, hinting at potential tensions over Britain’s EU exit even as the two stressed common ground in other areas.

Johnson maintained the UK was prepared to leave the EU without a trade deal, which could complicate the sensitive Northern Ireland border issue with Ireland – the UK’s only land border with the EU.

The 1998 Good Friday peace deal effectively ended Northern Ireland’s 30 years of sectarian violence, creating new institutions for cross-border cooperation.

Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney said an EU-UK trade pact is unlikely this weekend, and negotiations were likely to go into the next.  “I think this week and next week are…crucial really. If we don’t have a deal at some point next week, I think we have real problems.”

Boris Johnson said Wednesday he was hopeful a deal could still be agreed to, but that Brussels needed to understand Britain’s priorities.  “There’s a deal there to be done and we’re keen to do it, but it depends on our friends and partners understanding…where we need to get to,” he told broadcasters.

EU ambassadors are now slated to meet Nov. 18 on Brexit, and there are some believing a deal will be cut at that time.

All 27 EU member states must ratify any pact and the European Parliament has said it envisages ratification on Dec. 16, but only if lawmakers receive a text by Monday, Nov. 16.

Johnson’s Brexit “brain,” Dominic Cummings, the prime minister’s most powerful adviser, announced he will step down at year-end, reducing the sway of Brexit hardliners as Johnson is also trying to recast his premiership after a series of coronavirus debacles.

Cummings masterminded the 2016 Brexit referendum vote and Johnson’s 2019 landslide election win.

Separately, Britain’s unemployment rate rose to 4.8% for the three months to September, according to the Office for National Statistics, the highest rate since the three months to November 2016, the UK using rolling three-month time periods.

The government recently extended the costly coronavirus furlough scheme, which provides 80% of the pay of temporarily laid-off workers, until the end of March, and the finance ministry outlined billions of pounds in other forms of help.

The Bank of England expects around 5.5 million employees will need furlough support during an England-wide lockdown this month, up from just over 2 million in October.

The looming end to the Brexit transition period in seven weeks’ is also weighing on employers’ confidence.

Turning to Asia…we had key trade data out of China for the month of October.

Exports were up a better than expected 11.4% from a year ago, the fastest growth in 19 months, though they could be under pressure in November and December with renewed lockdowns in Europe and potentially elsewhere.

Imports rose 4.7% year-on-year.

Exports for the first 10 months were up 0.5% yoy, which compares with the first quarter when they were down 13.3%.

Exports to the U.S. in October were up 22.5% year-on-year, while imports from the U.S. rose 33.4% (read agriculture).

Exports to the European Union were down 21% in October, while imports of EU goods fell 20.4%.

GDP in China the first three quarters has been at annualized rates of -6.8%, +3.2%, +4.9%.

Japan reports key third-quarter GDP data on Sunday.

Street Bytes

--Stocks finished mixed as the positive Monday morning news from Pfizer on a vaccine propelled a big rally in the Dow industrials, but the Nasdaq finished down on the week as some of the stocks powering the “stay at home” rally corrected. 

The Dow had its second straight big week, up 4.1% to 29479, just 72 points shy of its all-time high, while the S&P 500 finished today at a new record, 3585, up 2.2%.

Nasdaq ended down 0.6% on the week, but is still up a whopping 31.8% for the year.

--U.S. Treasury Yields

6-mo.  0.09%  2-yr. 0.18%  10-yr. 0.90%  30-yr. 1.65%

Owing to the positive tone set by the vaccine news, the yield on the 10-year closed at its highest weekly level since March 13.

--Oil rallied this week on the word of vaccines coming soon, but the International Energy Agency (IEA) said global oil demand is unlikely to get a significant boost from same.

“It is far too early to know how and when vaccines will allow normal life to resume. For now, our forecasts do not anticipate a significant impact in the first half of 2021,” the IEA said in its monthly report.

“The poor outlook for demand and rising production in some countries…suggest that the current fundamentals are too weak to offer firm support to prices.”

In its closely scrutinized monthly report, OPEC deepened its forecast for a drop in global oil demand in 2020 by 300,000 barrels a day to 9.8 million barrels a day, a 10% drop from last year’s levels.  The cartel also softened its forecast rebound in demand for 2021 by 300,000 barrels a day.

Those cuts, when combined with the organization’s resilient non-OPEC supply forecasts and its cut to its 2021 global growth rebound forecast – present a dismal outlook for oil markets in the coming months.

OPEC hedged its forecasts, saying that “further [economic] support, currently unaccounted for, may come from an effective and widely distributable vaccine as soon as the first half of 2021.”

Bottom line for this week was oil finished at $40.13, after hitting $42 amid the tug of war between dire global demand forecasts and positive vaccine talk.

But fresh lockdown measures aimed at slowing the spread of the pandemic in Europe and rising oil supply present two big challenges for the immediate future.

--Royal Dutch Shell, which in September said it planned to cut up to 9,000 jobs globally, or over 10% of its workforce, announced this week it will be halving crude processing capacity and cutting 500 jobs at its Pulau Bukom oil refinery in Singapore as part of an overhaul to reduce the company’s carbon dioxide emissions to net zero by 2050.

Pulau Bukom will be one of six oil refining and petrochemical sites Shell will keep operating in Texas, Louisiana, Germany, the Netherland and Canada, down from 14.

Shell is going to keep shrinking its oil and gas business and expand its renewables and power division.

--Alibaba Group Holdings reported sales of $75 billion for Singles Day on Wednesday, after the shares fell 8% on Tuesday, as Chinese regulators proposed rules designed to check the power of e-commerce giants.

The proposal would ban exclusive relationships between e-commerce companies and the firms that sell through their platforms, something that regulators say restricts competition.

Alibaba is one of the world’s biggest e-commerce companies, operating sites such as its namesake, Taobao, and Tmall.

But the company, founded by billionaire Jack Ma, has been the target of government efforts to rein in tech power and last week, it had to cancel the $34 billion+ initial public offering of its mobile-payments company, Ant Group, after regulators raised concerns.  Alibaba owns about one-third of Ant, and what was to be the largest IPO ever is now on indefinite hold.

Meanwhile, Singles Day, the company’s annual one-days sales blitz, coincides with a holiday celebrating single people in November, the unofficial kickoff to holiday shopping.

Among the big products were Taylor Swift-branded jackets, Apple iPhones and prepaid beach vacations. Singles Day was kicked off with a virtual performance by Katy Perry.

But back to the Ant Group and its scuttled IPO, the Wall Street Journal reported that President Xi Jinping personally decided to pull the plug, the Journal citing Chinese officials with knowledge of the matter.  The decision to stop the offering came days after Jack Ma launched a public attack on the country’s financial watchdogs and banks.  President Xi then ordered Chinese regulators to investigate and effectively shut down Ant’s stock market flotation, the report said.

Editorial / The Economist

“Mr. Xi’s preoccupation has always been maintaining China’s social and financial stability.  Keeping big business in check is part of that plan.  It should come as no surprise that the state is now homing in on tech, which has expanded rapidly. Six of China’s 20 most valuable listed companies are tech firms and with billions of users they touch the lives and wallets of almost all citizens….

“Mr. Xi’s relationship with China’s tycoons has always been troubled. When he became president in 2013, he inherited a corporate system replete with fraud, patchy regulation and surging debt. After the success of an anti-corruption campaign that mostly targeted officials, Mr. Xi took aim at a group of businessmen who were ploughing huge sums into risky overseas investments.  Purchases included SeaWorld, an American amusement-park group, and the Waldorf Astoria, a swish hotel in New York.  Officials argued that many of these acquisitions were thinly disguised means to divert capital out of China.

“Many of the businessmen who once fancied themselves as a Chinese Warren Buffett are in prison or worse. Wu Xiaohui, the chairman of Anbang, which bought the Waldorf among other assets, was handed an 18-year prison sentence in 2018 for financial crimes.  Ye Jianming, who attempted to buy a $9bn stake in Rosneft, a Russian oil producer, was detained in early 2018. His whereabouts is still unknown.  Xiao Jianhua, a broker for China’s political elite who once controlled Baoshang Bank, was kidnapped by Chinese agents from his flat at the Four Seasons Hotel in Hong Kong in 2017 and is thought to be cooperating with authorities in the unwinding of his financial conglomerate….

“The party has also been increasing its influence over private firms in more subtle ways.  Under a strategy referred to as ‘party building,’ firms have been asked to launch party committees, which can opine on whether a corporate decision is in line with government policy….

“So far there is little evidence to suggest that party committees have hurt profitability, says Huang Tianlei of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a think-tank.  But increased party influence could inhibit some operations.  ‘Innovation may be suppressed.  More red tape can emerge. A firm can turn from profit-driven to goal-driven, sacrificing profitability,’ says Mr. Huang….

“(And regarding Ant Group and Jack Ma), Mr. Xi has made clear that no company is too big, and no IPO too valuable, to be allowed to challenge the state.”

--The TSA checkpoint daily travel numbers vs. 2019 are still poor.  The last seven days…37 percent of 2019 levels, 33, 28, 34, 41, 36, and 35.

--Chinese airlines will need 8,600 new airplanes worth $1.4 trillion over the next 20 years, Boeing Co. said on Thursday.  Boeing’s latest estimate for the period to 2039 is 6.3 percent higher than the planemaker’s previous prediction of 8,090 planes last year, despite the impact from the Covid-19 pandemic.  China will also need $1.7 trillion worth of commercial services for its aircraft fleet, Boeing said.

--Auto sales in China rose for a fourth straight month in October, as the country’s rebound from the pandemic continued.  Sales increased 8% in October from a year earlier to just under 2 million vehicles, the China Passenger Car Association said Monday.

Red-hot demand for luxury cars and a rebound in electric-vehicle sales – which more than doubled in year-over-year terms in October to 144,000 units – have boosted the recovery.  Tesla sold 12,143 locally built Model 3 sedans during the month and exported an additional 10,000 models to Europe in the first such shipment from the company’s Shanghai plant

Tesla will be producing its Model Y midsize sport-utility vehicle at the Shanghai facility, with production slated to begin early next year.

After the recovery in the China auto market, sales are now on track to decline just 7% in 2020, the association forecasts, before returning to growth in 2021.

Toyota Motor said its China sales increased by 33% in October year-over-year, while Nissan Motor grew its China sales by 5%.

Ford Motor previously said its quarterly China sales increased 22% from a year earlier, while General Motors’ grew 12%.

--Spanish lending giant Santander announced it planned to cut 14% of its workers, around 4,000 jobs, in its home market, and close up to 1,000 branches, around 32% of its branch offices in Spain.

Banks across Europe have been deepening cost cuts on stand-alone basis or through tie-ups.

At Santander, almost half the sales during 2020 have been done on digital channels, a trend which has been accelerated by the pandemic.

--Beyond Meat’s shares tanked more than 20% on Tuesday after the plant-based patty maker reported a surprise quarterly loss amid weakening sales; this as confusion persisted over its relationship with McDonald’s.

The El Segundo, Calif.-based company said Covid-19 restrictions were sapping demand at restaurants it supplies, while demand for its plant-based burgers and sausages at grocery stores has begun to drop after initial rounds of stockpiling by shoppers.

CEO Ethan Brown blamed the surprise loss on the pandemic’s “unpredictability,” admitting the company was caught off guard by weakening demand at supermarkets.  Personally, I have yet to buy any Beyond Meat product, which is prominently displayed at the various places I do my grocery shopping.  Brown added that McDonald’s secrecy surrounding its new McPlant veggie burger didn’t help.

On Monday, McDonald’s said the McPlant was created “by McDonald’s for McDonald’s,” sending Beyond Meat’s shares tumbling a first time.

Beyond Meat has done pilot tests with McDonald’s for veggie burgers in Canada, which was I thought a well-known fact, and later Monday said it had partnered with McDonald’s to “co-create” the McPlant.

“Our relationship with McDonald’s is really good and really strong,” CEO Brown said on an investor call.  It’s just strange that when pressed Monday, McDonald’s said it hasn’t announced its McPlant partners.

Brown added Beyond Meat would sell its burgers at 7,000 CVS locations as more people buy groceries there.

Anyway, Beyond Meat’s $19.3 million loss in the third quarter compared to a profit of $4.1 million a year ago.  Revenue rose 2.7 percent to $94.4 million, wildly missing expectations of $132.8 million.  I mean that is huge, as these things go. U.S. restaurant sales fell 11.1% in the quarter.

--So speaking of McDonald’s, it announced its third-quarter earnings on Monday and aside from talking of developing a new plant-based platform, the company confirmed its new Crispy Chicken Sandwich would arrive in the U.S. early next year.

“In the future, McPlant could extend across a line of plant-based products including burgers, chicken substitutes and breakfast sandwiches,” said Ian Borden, McDonald’s international president, during a virtual investor update.

The Crispy Chicken sandwich could kick-start a new round in the Chicken Sandwich Wars.  The war of 2019 began after Popeyes’ debut of its New Orleans-style fried chicken on a bun when the chain started a viral Twitter feud with Chick-fil-A and other restaurants.

McDonald’s franchise owners have been clamoring for a new premium chicken sandwich.

Meanwhile, McRib is coming in December.

As for McDonald’s third-quarter earnings and revenue, they came in above expectations as the fats-food giant’s decline in same-store sales wasn’t as steep as feared, although renewed restrictions amid the surge in Covid infections has been limiting some operations.

Revenue in the three months through September dipped 2% year-on-year to $5.42 billion, as same-store sales fell 2.2%, better than a predicted 4.3% slide.  In the U.S. sales rose 4.9% and were positive throughout the quarter although comparable numbers of guests were negative.  International operated markets saw same-store sales drop 4.4% in the quarter.  McDonald’s saw negative comp sales in France, Spain, Germany, the UK, Latin America and China, but were offset by positive same-store sales in Australia and Japan.

But now the fourth quarter will be difficult in many of the above markets.

--The Commerce Department said Thursday it wouldn’t enforce its order that would have effectively forced the Chinese-owned TikTok video-sharing app to shut down, in the latest sign of trouble for the Trump administration’s efforts to turn it into a U.S. company.

The Commerce Department’s action delayed implementation of an order, set to take effect on Thursday, that would have barred companies from providing internet-hosting or content-delivery services to TikTok – moves that would effectively make it inoperable in the U.S.

As of late today, it seems TikTok’s parent, ByteDance, was granted a 15-day extension of the divestiture order.  TikTok said it now has until Nov. 27 to reach an agreement.  ByteDance has been in talks for a deal with Walmart and Oracle to shift TikTok’s U.S. assets into a new entity.

It isn’t known how President-elect Biden will address the situation, President Trump having led the crackdown on Chinese social-media apps, but many members of Congress in both parties have sounded the alarm about potential Chinese data-gathering and surveillance in the U.S.

--Disney launched its flagship streaming service Disney+ a year ago and thank goodness for that because then the pandemic hit, decimating all of Disney’s other businesses.

The company posted a net loss of $2.8 billion for the 2020 fiscal year, plummeting from a profit of $10.4 billion a year earlier, Disney said in an earnings report Thursday.

The gamble on streaming with Disney+, which costs $7 a month on its own and $13 a month when bundled with Hulu and ESPN+, hit 73.7 million subscribers as of Oct. 3, up from about 60 million three months ago, the company said.

Hit shows including “The Mandalorian,” set in the “Star Wars” universe, have helped propel Disney to the front of the pack in the industrywide race to challenge Netflix for online video dominance.  Hulu now has 36.6 million subscribers, while ESPN+ tallies 10.3 million, Disney said.

Netflix has about 195 million global subscribers.  AT&T recently said its new service HBO Max has seen 8.6 million activations since its May premiere, bringing HBO and HBO Max to a combined 38 million U.S. subscribers.  NBCUniversal has said 22 million people have signed up for Peacock, which has a free ad-based tier as well as a subscription level.

Revenue for Disney’s fiscal year, which ended Oct. 3, was $65.4 billion, down 6% from last year.  The pandemic led to a $7.4-billion reduction in operating income during the year, the company said.

The parks, experiences and products division reported an $81-millioin operating loss for the year, compared with $6.76 billion in operating income in 2019.

Walt Disney World reopened in Florida this summer with strict capacity limits, though attendance has lagged. Disneyland in Anaheim has been kept closed because of state restrictions on theme parks, despite pressure from Disney, other operators and Orange County officials on Gov. Gavin Newsom to allow theme parks to resume business.  Disneyland is not expected to open until the end of the first fiscal quarter, which ends Jan. 2.

With a lack of new theatrical film releases, the company’s movie studio saw revenue fall 52% to $1.6 billion, while operating income plunged 61% to $419 million.

Disney’s movie studio had to delay some major films, including “Black Widow” and “West Side Story,” and sent others straight to Disney+ (“Soul” and “Mulan”).

Overall, Disney posted a loss of $710 million for the quarter, compared with a profit of $777 million a year earlier.  Revenue fell 23% to $14.7 billion, compared with $19.1 billion in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2019.

--WarnerMedia is laying off about 1,200 employees as the pandemic-ravaged entertainment industry struggles with steep drops in revenue.

AT&T-owned WarnerMedia has about 25,000 employees around the country.  It isn’t clear how many New York workers are losing their jobs, but the company has a big presence in two Manhattan locations (Hudson Yards and the Time Warner Center overlooking Columbus Circle). The company holds HBO, CNN, TNT and TBS, among other cable networks.

The news came a month after Madison Square Garden Entertainment said furloughs for 1,735 employees would last an additional six months. 

WarnerMedia’s revenue fell by $800 million in the third quarter, to $7.5 billion, while operating income declined to $1.8 billion from $2.8 billion.

--Cisco Systems shares rose on better-than-expected results for the quarter ended Oct. 24.

For the first three months of its fiscal year, Cisco posted revenue of $11.9 billion, down 9% year over year, while management had told investors to expect a decline of 9% to 11%.  Earnings exceed the range the company had targeted.

The networking company’s guidance for the fiscal second quarter was also a little better than the Street expected.

Sales were down 10% in both the Americas and Europe, and off 7% in Japan and the Asia-Pacific region.

CEO Chuck Robbins said there was clear improvement in the quarter in orders from the commercial segment, which had been down more than 20% in each of the last two quarters, and he noted that the service provider segment saw strong demands from “web scale” cloud providers both in the U.S. and Europe.

Robbins said the WebEx videoconferencing business had 600 million meeting attendees last month, almost double the number in March.

Robbins added he hoped a Biden Administration would promote an infrastructure bill, including a broadband initiative to bring high-speed connectivity to rural areas.

--Hong Kong’s economy was expected to shrink 6.1 percent this year, the government said on Friday after weighing the city’s performance in the first three quarters and the cushioning effects of its massive coronavirus relief measures.

GDP contracted by a worse than expected 3.5 percent in the third quarter compared with a year ago.

--Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway reported an 82% jump in its third-quarter profit as the value of its investment portfolio soared, but BH said the pandemic continued to hurt its assorted businesses, such as BNSF railroad.

Berkshire said Saturday that it earned $30.1 billion, up from $16.5 billion.  Most of the gains were due to a $24.8 billion improvement in the estimated value of Berkshire’s investments, which include large stakes in Apple and Bank of America.

Berkshire still held $145.7 billion in cash and short-term investments at the end of the third quarter.

Berkshire owns more than 90 companies, including Geico insurance and utility, furniture, manufacturing and jewelry businesses.  The Omaha, Nebraska-based conglomerate also has major investments in such companies as American Express, Moody’s and Coca-Cola.

--Trader Joe’s announced that 1,250 of its 53,000 employees tested positive for Covid-19 within the past eight months, an infection rate of about 2.4%.  The coronavirus was “suspected to be a contributing factor” in two employee deaths, according to the company, whose stores are a favorite of your editor.

Trader Joe’s said 83% of its 514 stores nationwide have had under four reported cases.

Foreign Affairs

China: Hong Kong’s pro-democracy opposition lawmakers resigned in protest against the dismissal of four of their colleagues from the city assembly after Beijing gave local authorities new powers to further curb dissent. The Chinese parliament earlier adopted a resolution allowing the city’s executive to expel lawmakers deemed to be advocating Hong Kong independence, colluding with foreign forces or threatening national security, without having to go through the courts.

Shortly afterwards, the local government then announced the disqualification of four assembly members who had previously been barred from running for re-election as authorities deemed their pledge of allegiance to Hong Kong was not sincere.

The moves further raised concern in the West about the level of Hong Kong’s autonomy, promised under a “one country, two systems” formula when Britain ended its colonial rule and handed Hong Kong back to China in 1997.

Britain said on Thursday that China had once again broken the Sino-British Joint Declaration by imposing new rules to disqualify the elected legislators in Hong Kong.

“Beijing’s imposition of new rules to disqualify elected legislators in Hong Kong constitutes a clear breach of the legally binding Sino-British Joint Declaration,” Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said.

On Monday, Washington imposed sanctions on four more officials in Hong Kong’s governing and security establishment over their alleged role in crushing dissent.

At a news conference in Hong Kong, which started with all opposition lawmakers holding hands, Democratic Party chairman Wu Chi-Wai said: “We can no longer tell the world that we will have ‘one country, two systems,’ this declares its official death.”

Shortly after the disqualifications, China’s representative office in the city said Hong Kong had to be ruled by loyalists.

“The political rule that Hong Kong must be governed by patriots shall be firmly guarded,” the Liaison Office said.

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“Hong Kong’s ‘one country, two systems’ form of government autonomy died this summer, and the Chinese Communist Party is now moving fast to crush its remnants. Beijing’s latest target is the Legislative Council and its pro-democracy lawmakers.

“On Wednesday China’s legislature passed a resolution allowing Hong Kong authorities to remove lawmakers without judicial oversight.  Hong Kong authorities quickly booted four pro-democracy legislators, including Dennis Kwok and Alvin Yeung, two brave defenders of an independent judiciary.

“Hong Kong’s remaining pro-democracy lawmakers responded by resigning en masse…. At a news conference Wednesday, Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam said it is disqualifying for lawmakers to oppose the new national security law or to plan on ‘indiscriminately voting down’ Beijing’s legislative agenda.  Ms. Lam will go down in history for betraying her city.

“The Communist Party long ago rigged LegCo, as the legislature is known, so democrats could never gain a majority.  Pro-democracy lawmakers have nonetheless served their constituents by working to prevent or delay some of the worst legislation and appointees.  This new resolution completes LegCo’s transformation into a rubber-stamp body.  It represents ‘Beijing’s rule by decree in its ultimate form,’ said Claudia Mo, one of the lawmakers who resigned in protest….

“Fearing that pro-democracy candidates would gain seats despite the rigged system, the government postponed the LegCo elections scheduled for last September.  Now they’ll be meaningless.

“Freedom dying anywhere diminishes the world, but Hong Kong’s fate is especially important because it shows China can’t be trusted to keep its international promises.  Its treaty with the UK promised autonomy to Hong Kong for 50 years through 2047.  It was extinguished in 2020.”

Lastly, Hong Kong’s three major radio broadcasters are now required to begin playing the Chinese national anthem every morning before their 8 a.m. newscasts.  This follows the passage months ago of the national anthem law in Hong Kong, which requires them to promote “March of the Volunteers” and punishes anyone who insults the song.

As for Taiwan, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in a radio interview, “Taiwan has not been part of China.  That was recognized with the work that the Reagan administration did to lay out the policies that the United States has adhered to now for three-and-a-half decades,” he said.

The United States is bound by law to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself, and officially only acknowledges the Chinese position that Taiwan is part of it, rather than explicitly recognizing China’s claims.

So speaking in Beijing, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said Taiwan was an inalienable part of China and that Pompeo was further damaging Sino-U.S. ties.

“We solemnly tell Pompeo and his ilk, that any behavior that undermines China’s core interests and interferes with China’s domestic affairs will be met with a resolute counterattack by China,” he said, without elaborating.

Just another reckless statement by Pompeo, that does zero good for the Taiwanese people.  Yes, the Taiwanese like to hear these things, and you know my support for them, but Pompeo likes to bluster just to play the role of bully. What good did his blustering do over Hong Kong?  Nothing.

Armenia and Azerbaijan: A ceasefire between these two was announced on Tuesday, ending the worst fighting in the region in decades, and celebrated as a victory in Azerbaijan and its ally Turkey.  Deployment of Russian peacekeeping troops on Tuesday locked in Azerbaijan’s territorial gains.

The Moscow-brokered agreement came after a string of Azerbaijani victories in its fight to retake the ethnic Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the deal in the early hours of Tuesday.

Pashinyan described the agreement as “unspeakably painful for me and for our people,” while Aliyev said it amounted to a “capitulation” by Armenia.

It is a huge victory for Azerbaijan as its forces will retain control over areas seized in the fighting, including the key town of Susha, while Armenia agreed to a timetable to withdraw from large parts of Nagorno-Karabakh.

A Russian force of 1,960 military personnel and 90 armored personnel carriers will deploy to the region as peacekeepers, for a renewable five-year mission.

Turkey and Russia signed an agreement on Wednesday to establish a joint center to coordinate efforts for monitoring a ceasefire, President Erdogan said.  He added Ankara would also participate in a peacekeeping force, but a senior Turkish security source said it would be sending observers, not peacekeepers.

At week’s end, Armenians are bitterly protesting against Pashinyan.

More than 1,400 people have been confirmed killed, including dozens of civilians, but the death toll is believed to be significantly higher.

Egypt and Israel: A helicopter with the U.S.-led Multinational Force and Observers (MFO) in the Egyptian Sinai crashed on Thursday near the resort town of Sharm el-Sheikh, killing eight members of the peacekeeper force, the MFO said. Those killed were six Americans, a French national and a Czech national, all of them military service members, the MFO said in a statement.  It added that one American MFO member survived and was medically evacuated.  An official briefed on the incident told Reuters it was an accident caused by mechanical failure.

The MFO was installed to monitor the demilitarization of the Sinai under the 1979 Egyptian-Israeli peace accord.  It has decreased in size  in recent years as the neighboring countries tightened security cooperation against Islamist-led Sinai insurgents.  However both Israel and Egypt have, in the past, opposed proposals by Washington to reduce U.S. participation in the MFO, whose website lists some 452 Americans among the force’s 1,154 military personnel.

Separately, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Alternate Prime Minister Benny Gantz are not speaking to each other, with Gantz saying, “Elections are not what is needed for the State of Israel,” Gantz told reporters on Tuesday.  “We joined the government  to prevent elections during a crisis.  To avoid elections, a budget and functional government are needed.  If these conditions are met, elections will not be needed.  If these conditions are not met, apparently yes, we will need them.”

Asked about the timing for his decision, Gantz said “not much more time.”

The leaders of Likud (Netanyahu) and Blue and White (Gantz) have been fighting over whether to pass one state budget or two by the end of the year.

Gantz said, “Time is running out to prevent an economic crisis and do what is right for the people of Israel.”

Lastly, we note the passing of longtime Palestinian chief negotiator Saeb Erekat, 65, who died in a Jerusalem hospital where he was under care after contracting Covid-19.  He was already in poor health, having undergone a lung transplant in the U.S. in 2017.

Erekat helped craft the landmark Oslo peace accords in 1993 that opened the path to normal relations – since collapsed – and that won Israeli and Palestinian leaders a Nobel Prize.

Iran: Tehran is continuing to build up its stockpile of low-enriched uranium and now holds roughly 12 times the amount permitted under the 2015 nuclear agreement, the United Nations Atomic Agency said in a report.

The report’s findings underscore the challenge the incoming Biden administration faces in persuading Iran to fully return to the 2015 nuclear deal: Besides the stockpile of low-enriched uranium, which when further refined can be used to fuel a nuclear weapon, Iran is also taking steps to potentially accelerate its production of low-enriched uranium and is continuing its nuclear research.

Biden has said he is prepared to take the U.S. back into the 2015 nuclear deal provided Iran returns into full compliance with that deal and agrees to future negotiations for longer and more stringent constraints on its nuclear activities.

Iran has said it is open to negotiation but has placed conditions on returning to the accord’s terms, including compensation for the U.S.’s withdrawal and sanctions.

Iran has gradually moved away from the nuclear deal’s limits since the summer of 2019 in response to the U.S.’s “maximum pressure” sanctions campaign.

President Trump, in justifying his decision to take the U.S. out of the deal, said it would fail to stop Tehran from eventually obtaining nuclear weapons and ignored key issues, like Iran’s ballistic-missile capacity and its support for terrorism.  But Iran is further along in its nuke program, ditto ballistic missiles.

Meanwhile, according to the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran has installed a first cascade of advanced centrifuges in the underground Natanz uranium enrichment plant that its deal with major powers says can only be used for first-generation IR-1 machines.

Iran had previously informed the IAEA that it would transfer three cascades of the uranium-enriching machines from an above-ground pilot plant at the Natanz nuclear site to the underground one after an above-ground centrifuge workshop burned down in an apparent act of sabotage.

Separately, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif warned Iran’s Arab neighbors that with Donald Trump leaving in 70 days, Iran’s regime will remain “forever,” urging them to realize that “betting on outsiders to provide security is never a good gamble.”

“Trump is gone, and we and our neighbors will stay. Betting on foreigners does not bring security, and disappoints.  We extend our hands to our neighbors to cooperate in achieving the common interests of our peoples and countries.  We call on everyone to embrace dialogue as the only way to end differences and tensions. Together to build a better future for our region,” Zarif tweeted late on Sunday.

Zarif and his spokesman in various statements urged the neighbors to return to talks with Iran.

“It is still time to step back from our failed policies and the inhumane legacy of the United States and the charlatans and bankrupt people who are advising the current U.S. administration. We are looking closely at the actions and careers of the future U.S. administration.”

Iran was promising Arab states a carrot-and-stick approach. If they obey Iran and work with its regime, then there will be security on Iran’s model, a “mechanism” from Tehran.

But Zarif’s “good cop” approach clearly ignores the “bad cop” background.  Like last year when Iran used drones to attack Saudi Arabia, among other belligerent actions in the region.

As for the Gulf States, they increasingly see their security linked to Israel (witness the Abraham Accords).

Peru: President Martin Vizcarra was impeached by Congress on Monday, with the vote coming amid a devastating coronavirus pandemic and just months before presidential elections.

The opposition’s move to remove the president for alleged corruption was supported by 105 of Peru’s 130 lawmakers, with 87 needed for removal.

In a national address after, Vizcarra said he accepts the vote, reducing the likelihood of a constitutional crisis or drawn out legal battle.

“I declare that without agreeing with the decision, today I will leave the presidential palace and go to my home,” Vizcarra said, flanked by his cabinet.  “History and the Peruvian people will judge the decisions that each one of us makes.”

Until the end of his term next July, the president of Congress, the opposition lawmaker and businessman Manuel Merino, becomes interim president.

The vote shocked the nation as Vizcarra was expected to survive.  His opponents were opposed to his attempts to overhaul the country’s political and judicial system.

Vizcarra was accused of taking about $640,000 in bribes from local construction companies while governor of a small mining region in the early 2010s.

Random Musings

--Exit Polls….2020 vs. 2016

For this exercise, which you won’t find anywhere else (as in this took a lot of work to put together), I am using the Edison Research for the National Election Pool, except in four cases for 2016, where I’m using CNN exit poll data, as noted.

What jumps out at you is there are few significant differences, befitting the following facts.

In 2016, Hillary Clinton defeated Donald Trump, 48.5% to 46.4%, and as I go to post, Joe Biden leads Trump, 50.8% to 47.4%.  2.1% margin to 3.4%. As in you’re looking how Biden picked up increments and Trump lost the same.

In 2016, Gary Johnson and Jill Stein picked up a combined 4.4%.

In 2020, Jo Jorgensen is polling around 1.2%.

2020: T=Trump, B=Biden…2016: T=Trump, C=Clinton

Male…53 percent T – 45 percent B…53 T – 41 C
Female…42 T – 57 B…42 T – 54 C
Whites…58 T – 41 B…58 T – 37 C
Blacks…12 T – 87 B…8 T – 88 C
Hispanics/Latino…32 T – 65 B…29 T – 65 C
65 and older…52 T – 47 B…53 T – 45 C
College grad…43 T – 55 B…45 T – 49 C
No college…50 T – 48 B…51 T – 45 C
White evangelical…76 T – 24 B…81 T – 16 C
Served in military…54 T – 44 B…61 T – 34 C
Suburbs…48 T – 50 B…50 T – 45 C
Rural…57 T – 42 B…62 T – 34 C
Independents…41 T – 54 B…48 T – 42 C
Black men…19 T – 79 B…18 T – 81 C *
Black women…9 T – 90 B…5 T – 94 C *
Latino men…36 T – 59 B…35 T – 63 C *
Latino women…30 T – 69 B…30 T – 69 C *
White college grad…48 T – 51 B…49 T – 45 C
White no college…67 T – 32 B…67 T – 28 C
Nonwhite college…27 T – 70 B…23 T – 71 C
Nonwhite no college…26 T – 72 B…20 T – 75 C

*CNN exit poll data from 2016

So with increments of a percentage point the difference when you add up some key categories, yes, Trump picked up 4 points in the Black vote, but he lost 5 among white evangelicals.

Trump lost 7 points among those having served in the military. 

Trump also lost more points, 5, among rural voters than he did among suburban voters, 2.  But while Edison Research didn’t break out the suburban women vote, a poll by Public Opinion Strategies had suburban women going for Biden this year by a 56-40 margin, while Hillary only won the group by a 46-42 percent margin in 2016.

Lastly, and perhaps most critically, Trump lost 7 points between 2016 and 2020 when it came to Independents.

--A fight among Georgia Republicans broke out Monday as the state’s top election official rejected calls from its two U.S. senators that he resign for challenging President Trump’s unsubstantiated claims of voter fraud.

Gabriel Sterling, a lifelong Republican who manages Georgia’s voting system, took to a lectern at the Capitol to plainly and matter-of-factly dismiss criticism of election illegalities in the battleground state as “fake news” and “disinformation.”

“Hoaxes and nonsense,” Sterling said.  “Don’t buy into these things. Find trusted sources.”

Hours later, GOP Sens. David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler called on Sterling’s boss, Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, to resign for allegedly mismanaging the state’s elections.

--Last week I wrote that in my congressional district, No. 7 in New Jersey, Democrat Tom Malinowski had won re-election comfortably, but that a lot of mail-in ballots were yet to be counted.  Well tonight, with 96% of the vote in, Malinowski’s lead is down to 50.5% to 49.5% over Republican Tom Kean Jr.

Should Malinowski squeak through, I would expect Kean (who I voted for) to run again in two years and this race would garner national attention as a barometer for the nation.  Malinowski defeated Republican incumbent Leonard Lance in 2018, 51.7% to 46.7%, as part of the Trump backlash in the suburbs.

--Former Utah Sen. Orrin G. Hatch had an opinion piece in USA TODAY I didn’t have a chance last time to include.

“What a decade this year has been.

“A once-in-a century pandemic has tested the resilience of our citizens and the ability of government to respond.  Meanwhile, our economy is on the ropes with a recovery slow coming and millions of Americans still out of work due to Covid-19 restrictions.

“Set all of this against the backdrop of the most significant social unrest the nation has seen since 1968 and a contentious election looming on the horizon.

“This year, if nothing else, has been a stress test for our democracy. The events of one of the most tumultuous years in American history have pushed our fragile experiment in representative government to the breaking point – but it has not broken.

“While our democracy remains intact, we see with new eyes its weaknesses and vulnerabilities and the need to fortify it against future challenges.

“The question is: How can we restore our democracy to its former health?  How can we ensure that it doesn’t break in the future?  And how can we reverse the trends of growing polarization, civil unrest and distrust of institutions that threaten to tear us apart?

“The answer starts in the classroom.  By restoring civic education to its proper place in our schools, we can revitalize our democracy and preserve the American experiment for future generations.

“The seeds of division and dysfunction now undermining our society were sown – at least in part – by decades of neglect in the area of civic education.  In a new report by the Orrin G. Hatch Foundation, ‘Commonsense Solutions to Our Civics Crisis,’ we establish strong links between poor civic education and a number of ills plaguing our democracy, including depressed voter turnout, low trust in institutions and decreasing faith in the free-market economy.

“If poor civic education is exacerbating these trends, then we know that better civic education is necessary to reverse them. That’s why we need an all-hands-on-deck effort to recenter civics at the heart of America’s public schools.

“Adding urgency to this project is the fact that we are in the midst of a full-blown civics crisis. Americans hold their own elected officials in such low regard that only 17% trust the government to ‘do what is right’ most of the time.

“Meanwhile, civic participation across all demographics lags far behind that of other developed countries. And when it comes to understanding how our economic and constitutional systems work, there is an epidemic of ignorance that has been around much longer than the coronavirus.

“According to recent surveys from the Annenberg Public Policy Center, only 39% of Americans can name all three branches of government while 37% cannot name a single right guaranteed by the First Amendment of the Constitution.

“Our civics crisis can be traced to a precipitous decline in funding for civic education over the years that has left the next generation ill-equipped for the responsibilities of democratic citizenship.

“Consider that, in the past decade alone, funding for civic education has dropped from $150 million in 2010 to a measly $5 million today. All the while, federal funding for STEM has reached new heights. Today, the U.S. government spends approximately $54 per student to further STEM learning and a paltry 5 cents per student for civic education.

“Judging by the disparity in federal funding, our priorities are clearly out of whack.  While STEM subjects are undeniably important to growing our economy, civics is indispensable to preserving our democracy.

“And we are doing younger Americans a tremendous disservice by failing to give them the civic education they deserve.  In effect, we are handing them the keys to the car without giving them driving lessons, putting our nation on the road to democratic ruin.

“The good news is, it’s not too late to turn the car around….

“The first step is boosting funding. To prioritize civics in our schools, we call for a 100-fold increase in federal funding for civic education. This includes a commitment of more than $500 million to improve teacher development in civic education, coupled with grants of $1 million a year or more from the National Endowment for the Humanities.

“The second step is to improve testing. We need a complete overhaul of federal testing for civic education to ensure that the subject takes precedence in the classroom. That’s why we propose mandating testing in U.S. history and government for grades 4, 8 and 12, and reporting these results both nationally and by state.  And we wholeheartedly endorse the creation of a civics exam as a requirement for graduating high school.

“We also call for a significant increase in civics instruction across all grade levels, but especially in high school, where the subject often takes a backseat to STEM.  The gold standard is a strong presence of civics in the elementary and middle school curriculum culminating in a year-long course in civics in high school.

“Finally, we need to focus federal and state funds on enhancing teacher training and development.  In addition to the 100-fold increase in federal funding for civic education, we call on states to devote more resources to assist teachers charged with educating the next generation of public leaders in civics and history. We likewise propose a reshaping of civics curriculum to emphasize civic knowledge before civic action and to encourage the teaching of history through primary documents.

“Failing to address the civics crisis is not an option. Why? Because at stake is nothing less than the life and well-being of our democracy. That’s why we must enact bipartisan reform now to retore the primacy of civic education in our schools.

“To secure America’s future, I hope federal, state and local leaders will heed this call to action.”

--I have told you over the years of how I knew ex-Cardinal Theodore McCarrick, and how I had a treasured picture of the two of us after he was elevated to Cardinal in Rome, Feb. 2001, as part of my officially being a guest of Cardinal Avery Dulles, via the New York Jesuit Mission Bureau, who were responsible for my activities on the island of Yap in Micronesia.

McCarrick and I had a correspondence when he was Archbishop of Newark, and when I was involved in my local church as a member of our Parish Council, exchanging letters on his peace efforts during the Balkan Wars.  So when I saw him in Rome on his special day, we chatted about that.  To me it was a special moment.

Little did I know that when I was communicating and, in essence, breaking bread with Theodore McCarrick in Rome on his special day, that he had a history of abusing seminarians.

This week the Vatican issued an absolutely devastating report on its investigation into how a series of bishops, cardinals and popes downplayed or dismissed reports he was sleeping with seminarians, and that even Pope Francis merely continued his predecessors’ naïve handling of McCarrick, a predator (that pains me to write this), until a former altar boy alleged abuse.

The Vatican published a 400-plus page, two-year internal investigation into McCarrick’s rise and fall in a bid to retore credibility to the U.S. and Vatican hierarchies, which have been shattered by the scandal.

Francis defrocked McCarrick last year after a Vatican investigation into decades of allegations.  The Vatican had reports from authoritative figures dating back to 1999 that McCarrick’s behavior was problematic, yet his rise continued.  Again, he was made a cardinal, a highly influential one, two years later in 2001.

The lion’s share of the blame is placed on a dead saint: Pope John Paul II, who appointed McCarrick archbishop of Washington, D.C., in 2000, despite having commissioned an inquiry that confirmed he slept with seminarians.  The summary says John Paul naively believed McCarrick’s last-ditch, handwritten denial.

Pope Benedict XVI then decided in 2006 not to investigate or sanction McCarrick seriously even after further reports surfaced after he had been given restrictions.

For his part, Pope Francis said he never received any documentation about McCarrick before 2017, but one of his ambassadors purportedly told him in 2013 that McCarrick was a predator.

The report says Francis, “Believing that the allegations had already been reviewed and rejected by Pope John Paul II, and well aware that McCarrick was active during the papacy of Benedict XVI…did not see the need to alter the approach that had been adopted.”  [That there were just allegations and rumors related to immoral conduct occurring prior to McCarrick’s appointment to Washington.]

But then Francis changed after the former altar boy came forward in 2017 alleging that McCarrick groped him when he was a teenager during preparations for Christmas Mass in 1971 and 1972 in New York.  It was the first solid claim against McCarrick involving a minor and it triggered a canonical trial that resulted in his defrocking.

The Vatican report gets worse, and it involves retired ambassador, Archbishop Carlo Maria Vigano, who levels assertions against Francis for lifting “sanctions” imposed by Benedict and making McCarrick a trusted advisor. Vigano demanded that Francis resign, claiming he had warned the pope in June 2013 that McCarrick had “corrupted generations of seminarians and priests.”

But Vigano is also accused of failing to act on Vatican instructions to investigate new claims against McCarrick by a Brazilian-born New Jersey priest.

--Editorial / Wall Street Journal…on the passing last weekend of Alex Trebek, 80.

“Born in Ontario, Trebek was a journalist before he began hosting game shows.  In 1984 the producer Merv Griffin gave him the chance to host a revival of ‘Jeopardy,’ and Trebek’s run in that role lasted 37 years and more than 8,200 episodes. He had an authoritative manner that was also reassuring. He didn’t condescend like a know-it-all but he also didn’t patronize wrong answers.

“This fit a show in which success is based on merit.  You either know the answer in a split second or you don’t.  Not everyone gets a trophy, and there are no equal outcomes. The winner knows the most and is quicker on the button.  Millions of viewers liked to test their own knowledge by playing along, and thousands who did so went on to be contestants on the show.

“In a media world that is increasingly splintered into niche shows and markets, ‘Jeopardy’ stands out for its long run and continuing national popularity.  Much of that success owes to Trebek, who also gave viewers a lesson in fortitude as he confronted his cancer diagnosis with grace and good humor. A philanthropist in private life, he offered viewers updates on his treatment and taped his last show as recently as Oct. 29.”

Alex Trebek will be greatly missed.  Years from now, folks will be talking about him, much as many of us still talk about Tim Russert, by the way.  Can you imagine the field day Russert would have had this election cycle.  There would have been a lot of folks afraid to go on his show.  He would have eviscerated them.

--Yippee!  For the first time in four years, dogs are returning to the White House thanks to president-elect Joe Biden.  Biden’s German shepherd, Major, will also make history as the first rescue dog to live at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, according to NBC News.

The Biden family adopted Major from the Delaware Humane Association in November 2018, 10 years after the couple welcomed their first German shepherd, Champ.

Champ lived at the vice presidential residence at the U.S. Naval Observatory during Biden’s two terms with President Obama.

--The relentless 2020 hurricane season has set another record. The record for named storms in a single season was broken Tuesday with the formation of Subtropical Storm Theta far out in the northeastern Atlantic Ocean.  Theta is thus the 29th named storm of 2020, breaking the record of 28 from 2005, the National Hurricane Center reported.  Tropical Storm/Hurricane Eta then spun around the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall Thursday morning on the northeastern  Florida Gulf Coast.

We could yet see the 30th named storm sometime tonight or tomorrow in the Caribbean.* If so it would be Iota and threaten the same region devastated by Eta, Nicaragua and Honduras.  Hurricane season doesn’t officially end until Nov. 30.

*Iota is now a tropical storm and is expected to intensify rapidly.

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Pray for the men and women of our armed forces…and all the fallen.

God bless America.

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Gold $1886…very volatile these days.
Oil $40.13

Returns for the week 11/9-11/13

Dow Jones  +4.1%  [29479]
S&P 500  +2.2%  [3585…new record high]
S&P MidCap  +4.3%
Russell 2000  +6.1%
Nasdaq  -0.6%  [11829]

Returns for the period 1/1/20-11/13/20

Dow Jones  +3.3%
S&P 500  +11.0%
S&P MidCap  +2.4%
Russell 2000  +4.5%
Nasdaq  +31.8%

Bulls 59.2
Bears 19.4 …catchup time…10/20: 59.2 / 20.4…10/27: 60.6 / 20.2…11/3: 53.6 / 20.6. 

Hang in there…Mask up, wash your hands.

This too shall pass.

Brian Trumbore

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