Week in Review

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Week in Review

02/17/2024

For the week 2/12-2/16

[Posted 5:00 PM ET, Friday]

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Special thanks to longtime supporter Bill C., who I literally met the first day of StocksandNews, as I was having a celebratory drink at a bar below my office.

Edition 1,296

This morning, we had tragic news out of Russia, the death of opposition leader Alexei Navalny in an Arctic Circle jail, the prison service said.

I have written as much on this incredibly courageous man as anyone, and his death certainly comes as no surprise.  He was serving a 19-year jail term on trumped up charges and was moved to one of Russia’s toughest penal colonies late last year.

The prison service said Navalny had “felt unwell” after a walk on Friday.  He had “almost immediately lost consciousness,” it said in a statement, adding that an emergency medical team had immediately been called and tried to resuscitate him but without success. “Cause of death is being established.”

But just Thursday, Navalny, 47, was seen looking well and laughing during a court hearing via video link.

“I don’t want to hear any condolences,” his mother was quoted as saying.  “We saw him in prison in a meeting.  He was alive, healthy and happy.”

Seriously, one report by Russian state-run RV outlet RT, said Navalny had suffered a blood clot, which was ridiculed by Moscow specialist Alexander Polupan, who treated Navalny in the past, noting that kind of diagnosis could only be made from a post-mortem examination. [BBC News]

Reaction across the world was immediate.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in Munich, said if the reports were accurate “his death in a Russian prison and the fixation and fear of one man only underscores the weakness and rot at the heart of the system that Putin has built,” adding that “Russia is responsible for this.”

National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan: “(Given the) Russian government’s long and sordid history of doing harm to its opponents, it raises real and obvious questions about what happened here.”

Russian newspaper editor and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Dmitry Muratov called the death “murder.”

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock: “Like no one else, Alexei Navalny fought for a democratic Russia.  For that, Putin tortured him to death.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky: “It is obvious: he was killed by Putin, as thousands of others were tortured and martyred by this one ‘creature.’  Putin does not care who dies as long as he keeps his position. And that is why he should not keep anything. Putin should lose everything and answer for what he has done.”

British Foreign Minister David Cameron: “We should hold Putin accountable for this.”

French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne: “Alexei Navalny paid with his life for his resistance to a system of oppression.  His death in a penal colony reminds us of the reality of Vladimir Putin’s regime.”

EC Council President Charles Michel: “Alexei Navalny fought for the values of freedom and democracy.  For his ideals, he made the ultimate sacrifice. The EU holds the Russian regime solely responsible for this tragic death.”

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen: “Putin fears nothing more than dissent from his own people. A grim reminder of what Putin and his regime are all about.  Let’s unite in our fight to safeguard the freedom and safety of those who dare to stand up against autocracy.”

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte: Navalny’s death “illustrates the unprecedented brutality of the Russian regime.  Navalny fought for democratic values and against corruption. He had to pay for his struggle with death while he was held under the harshest and most inhumane conditions.”

Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo: “His tragic death again underscores why we will continue to support Ukraine.  Russia will not prevail in Ukraine.”

Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski: “My heart now goes out to the family of Alexei Navalny, who is a hero and a symbol for all Russian democrats.  He was convicted in a trial on false charges… Vladimir Putin is responsible for all this.”

Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas said Russia “and all those responsible” must be held accountable. “Navalny’s death is yet another dark reminder of the rogue regime we’re dealing with.”

The Kremlin said Putin had been advised of Navalny’s death.

The Russian prosecutor’s office warned Russians against participating in a mass protest in the center of Moscow this afternoon.

“Please note that this mass event has not been coordinated with the executive authorities of the city in accordance with the procedure established by law,” the prosecutors said.

President Joe Biden, in remarks from the White House, said he had “no reason” to doubt the reports of Navalny’s death, whom he praised for his bravery.  “Make no mistake.  Putin is responsible for Navalny’s death.”

When asked by a reporter specifically whether Navalny was assassinated, Biden said: “We don’t know exactly what happened. There’s no doubt that the death of Navalny was the consequence of something Putin and his thugs did.”

Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said any accusation that the Kremlin was responsible for Navalny’s death was “unacceptable.”

For now, the last word goes to Navalny’s wife, Yulia, who courageously delivered a surprise speech at the Munich Security Conference, where many of the above-noted leaders were also in attendance.

“If it’s true, I want Putin, his entourage, Putin’s friends and his government to know they will pay for what they have done to our country, to our family, and my husband,” she said to applause.

“And that day will come very soon.”

Yulia also cautioned that Putin and his government “always lie.”

It will be interesting to see if Yulia and her family attend the upcoming State of the Union Address, currently scheduled for March 7.

[I have Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley’s response in a more appropriate spot down below.]

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The Senate passed a $95.34 billion aid package for Ukraine, Israel and Tawain early Tuesday morning, 70-29, easily exceeding the chambers’ 60-vote threshold for passage and sending the legislation over to the House.

Twenty-two Republicans joined most Democrats to support the bill. [Democrats Jeff Merkley of Oregon and Peter Welch of Vermont, as well as independent Bernie Sanders / VT voted against.]

“It’s certainly been years, perhaps decades, since the Senate has passed a bill that so greatly impacts not just our national security, not just the security of our allies, but the security of western democracy,” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said.

But the bill appeared to face long odds of getting to the floor of the House, where Speaker Mike Johnson faulted it for lacking conservative provisions to stem a record flow of migrants across the U.S.-Mexico border.

“In the absence of having received any single border policy change from the Senate, the House will have to continue to work its own will on these important matters,” Johnson said in a statement issued late on Monday.  “America deserves better than the Senate’s status quo,” he said.  The speaker has suggested the House could split the legislation into separate bills.

The legislation includes $61 billion for Ukraine, $14 billion for Israel and $4.83 for the Indo-Pacific, including Taiwan.  It would also provide $9.15 billion in humanitarian assistance to civilians in Gaza and the West Bank, Ukraine and other conflict zones around the globe.

But last week, a bipartisan border deal, negotiated for months, was rejected by Donald Trump.

Schumer then stripped the border security language from the bill.  Trump, who wanted the border issue to run on, has now turned his criticism to the foreign aid bill, saying any aid to allies should take the form of loans.

Ukrainian President Zelensky welcomed the Senate vote.  “American assistance brings just peace in Ukraine closer and restores global stability, resulting in increased security and prosperity for all Americans and all the free world,” he said on X.

Tuesday, President Biden said Donald Trump’s remarks criticizing NATO (see below) were  “dumb,” “shameful” and “un-American.”

Biden said the stakes have risen because of Trump’s “dangerous” remarks over the weekend.

“No other president in history has ever bowed down to a Russian dictator,” Biden said.

“Let me say this as clearly as I can. I never will. For God’s sake. It’s dumb.  It’s shameful.  It’s dangerous.  It’s un-American.”

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who delivered the 22 Republican votes, acknowledged in an interview with the Wall Street Journal that his views in favor of muscular, engaged American leadership in the world no longer prevail.  Instead, he said, it is the isolationist America First wing of his party, led by Donald Trump, that is ascendant for now.

“I think the declining support for Ukraine is almost entirely because our nominee for president doesn’t think it’s a good idea,” McConnell said.  “He’s a very influential figure in our party” whose “opposition is an important factor in reducing the number of supporters.”

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The chairman of the House intelligence committee, Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio), issued an unusual cryptic statement on Wednesday saying the committee had made available to all members of Congress information about an unspecified “serious national security threat” that sources said was related to Russia.

“I am requesting that President Biden declassify all information relating to this threat so that Congress, the Administration, and our allies can openly discuss the actions necessary to respond to this threat,” Turner said in a statement.

Turner is a highly responsible, respected congressman, so it got more than a few people worried if this was something imminent.

Most folks with some familiarity said it was related to Russia and operations in space, but Turner’s statement came amidst the debate over global threats and his fellow House Republicans possibly blocking the $95 billion in aid for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan.

House Speaker Johnson told reporters at the Capitol there was no need for public alarm.  “Steady hands are at the wheel.  We’re working on it and there’s no need for alarm.

Senators Mark Warner (D-Va.) and Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), the chair and vice chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, issued a joint statement saying their panel has the intelligence in question and has been “rigorously” tracking the issue.  They cautioned against “potentially disclosing sources and methods that may be key to preserving a range of options for U.S. action,” their statement said.

Rep. Jim Himes of Connecticut, the top Democrat on the House intelligence panel, said the issue in Turner’s statement is significant, “but it is not a cause for panic.”

Jake Sullivan, national security adviser, said he had arranged a briefing for Thursday with congressional leaders (the Gang of Eight) and defense professionals.

The New York Times then reported that the White House has informed Congress and its allies in Europe of new intelligence about Russian nuclear capabilities that could pose an international threat.  Officials said that the new intel was serious, but that the capability was still under development and that Russia had not deployed it.  The information is highly classified, and officials said it could not be declassified without cutting off its source.

But various reports, including from ABC News, said the intelligence was related to Russia’s attempt to develop a space-based antisatellite nuclear weapon.  The intel was developed in recent days.  Some officials seemed to believe that Rep. Turner was making more of the intelligence than would ordinarily have been expected, perhaps to create pressure to prod the House to take up the supplemental funding request for Ukraine.

The Kremlin dismissed the warning on Thursday, calling it a “malicious fabrication” and a trick by the White House aimed at getting lawmakers to approve more money to counter Russia.

David Ignatius / Washington Post

“U.S. officials didn’t provide details of Russia’s new capability. But the Russians might be planning to use directed-energy weapons or electromagnetic pulses in space that could disable commercial and military networks.  Such systems could, for example, attack the exotic “mesh networks” that allow Starlink and other companies to bounce signals among their satellites before sending data back to Earth.

“In 2021, Russia tested an antisatellite weapon that could shoot an orbiter out of the sky (creating a horrible debris field in the process). And Russia could, in theory, fire a series of nuclear SATs to make space a no-go zone. But such an approach would be sloppy and self-destructive, in addition to violating a treaty banning nuclear weapons in space.  Russia’s new technology appears to be something more sophisticated….

“Russia, it seems, is looking for new ways to challenge the United States’ space supremacy. But given the ingenuity of U.S. engineers in helping friends and evading enemies, it’s a safe bet that the cycle of punch and counterpunch in space is just beginning.”

Thursday, the White House publicly confirmed that Russia has obtained a “troubling” emerging anti-satellite weapon but said it cannot directly cause “physical destruction” on Earth.

National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said intelligence officials have information that Russia has obtained the capability but that such a weapon is not currently operational.

“First this is not an active capability that’s been deployed and though Russia’s pursuit of this particular capability is troubling, there is no immediate threat to anyone’s safety,” Kirby said.  “We’re not talking about a weapon that can be used to attack human beings or cause physical destruction here on Earth.”

President Biden also confirmed this afternoon that Russia was working on a space-based capability to threaten U.S. and others’ assets, but that it had not been deployed.

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“The unhappy reality is that U.S. satellites are large and vulnerable to attack.  Military officials have known this for some time, and their strategy is dispersal and hardening. Details are classified, but in general terms this means relying on more and smaller satellites and making each one better able to withstand an enemy’s anti-satellite lasers or blast weapons.

“This takes money, and the Senate’s fiscal 2024 defense spending bill increases space investments by 9%.  The bill funds 15 national-security space launches this year, five more than in 2023, plus money for a variety of space monitoring and satellite protection purposes.  If Congress fails to pass the bill and instead lapses into a continuing resolution, the Space Force would lose $2.8 billion in spending. That’s nearly a tenth of its budget….

“Political complacency about space war is part of a larger refusal by American elites to educate the public about U.S. vulnerability to new military technologies. The liberal internationalists in the Biden Administration don’t want to highlight growing threats on their watch – and in any case think they can be meliorated with treaties. The GOP’s isolationist wing wants to spend less on defense and cede global spheres of influence to Russia, China and Iran.

“Thanks to Mike Turner for trying to wake up the sleepwalkers.”

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An overwhelming majority of Americans think Joe Biden is too old to serve another term, according to a new ABC News/Ipsos poll that rocked Democrats over the weekend.

According to the survey, 86% of Americans think Biden, 81, is too old to serve another term, a figure that includes 59% of Americans who think both he and former President Trump are too old and 27% who think only Biden is too old.

Sixty-two percent of Americans think Trump, 77, is too old to serve as president.  But there is a large difference in how partisans view their respective nominees – 73% of Democrats think Biden is too old to serve, but only 35% of Republicans think Trump is too old to serve.  Ninety-one percent of independents think Biden is too old to serve, and 71% say the same about Trump.

Back in September, an ABC News/Washington Post poll found that 74% of Americans thought Biden was too old to serve another term, and 49% said the same about Trump.

Editorial / Wall Street Journal…on the implication of special counsel Robert Hur’s report about the president’s failure to recall basic facts of his life, and worse.

“Mr. Biden’s multiplying public lapses are ample reason for urging him to withdraw from the 2024 race….

“Democrats are raging against Mr. Hur, but they should be grateful.  Mr. Biden’s mental frailty is one reason Mr. Hur offered for not presenting the President’s document-mishandling as a criminal offense before a jury.  His report is also forcing Democrats to confront the political reality that Mr. Biden’s decline could re-elect Donald Trump….

“Such (mental) decline is part of the human condition, and it’s not Mr. Biden’s fault.  But what is his fault is telling the American people that he can capably serve another four years as President.

“The fault also lies with those in the White House covering for him… The White House doesn’t trust him to make a sustained public case on critical issues such as aid to Ukraine or Israel. Mr. Biden’s public appearances are typically scripted. And when they aren’t, Mr. Biden tends to confuse a Mitterand with a Macron, or a Kohl with a Merkel.

“The voters can see this, which is why even most Democrats tell pollsters they doubt Mr. Biden is up to another term.  A majority of Americans in the latest Harvard CAPS-Harris poll say a vote for Mr. Biden this year is really a vote for President Kamala Harris because Mr. Biden won’t make it through another four years.

“This is dangerous politically for Democrats, but it’s also a grave risk for the country. The world is as dangerous as it’s been since the 1930s, with U.S. adversaries on the march.  This would be challenging for a young, vigorous leader.  It’s perilous for a President who will be 82 years old before a second inauguration and who is already showing visible signs of failing memory and lapsed concentration….

“A Biden renomination isn’t assured until a formal vote at the Democratic convention in Chicago in August.  There’s not enough time for other candidates to get on enough primary ballots.  But if Mr. Biden were to announce his retirement after a single term and free his delegates to vote their conscience, there would be a wide-open race for the nomination….

“Republicans would have a far more difficult challenge than beating an old man with a 40% approval rating.

“Easing out an incumbent President carries risks, but hardly more than pretending that voters will ignore what they can plainly see.  The main question is whether Democrats who can make a difference will continue to ignore reality, fingers-crossed, and pray that Mr. Biden doesn’t have an even larger pratfall in the next nine months.”

Meanwhile, there was a story from Axios, Monday, that President Biden recently exploded in rage at aides over the border crisis, demanding obscure immigration data and erupting when they couldn’t immediately produce it.

According to the reporting, the volatile meeting was aboard Air Force One in late January, with those involved venting that Biden’s frustrations over the issue have made it increasingly difficult to reach decisions about the border.

“If you’re the person briefing the president, you get to piss him off every day,” the source said.

But adding to the debacle is Vice President Kamala Harris’ total failure on the issue.

“She’s been at best ineffective, and at worst sporadically engaged and not seeing it was her responsibility,” a former senior Biden administration official told the outlet.  “It’s an opportunity for her, and she didn’t fill the breach.”

Harris has been an unmitigated disaster.  Early last week, she was detailing her priorities for the campaign on Air Force Two when she was asked: ‘Do voters’ concerns about President Biden’s age mean she must convince them she is ready to serve?’

“I am ready to serve.  There’s no question about that,” Harris responded.  Everyone who sees her on the job, Harris said, “walks away fully aware of my capacity to lead.”

The response came during an interview with the Wall Street Journal, two days before the special counsel’s report on Biden’s handling of the classified documents amplified concerns about the 81-year-old incumbent’s mental acuity.

So these days, what had been quiet talk of whether Harris could step into the presidency is now spilling out into the open.

Or, as the Wall Street Journal editorialized:

“Ms. Harris has…provided political security to Mr. Biden because so many Democrats believe she would be a disaster as their presidential nominee if Mr. Biden chose not to run.  But that’s a false sense of political security.

“For one thing, Democrats wouldn’t have to nominate Ms. Harris if Mr. Biden stood down and the nomination were decided at the Democratic convention in August.  Other candidates would run, and their relative appeal would be tested.

“Our guess is that Ms. Harris’ polling would be bad enough that Democratic pros would rally behind someone else, despite the identity-politics complications of opposing a minority woman. Democrats are bloodier minded about power than are GOP primary voters.

“Democrats also won’t be able to escape the problem of Ms. Harris even if Mr. Biden stays in the race.  Republicans are sure to make Ms. Harris a central issue, and they should because chances are high that Mr. Biden wouldn’t serve out his term through age 86.  That might scare more swing voters even than Mr. Biden’s mental frailty or Donald Trump’s daily diatribes.  It’s another good reason for Democrats to rethink their entire ticket.”

Meanwhile, First Lady Jill Biden lashed out at special counsel Hur over his scathing report that raised questions about her husband’s advanced age and declining mental acuity.

Lastly, I wrote some of the following in my WIR on 12/30/23:

“The other week Michael Smerconish…had Frank Fahrenkopf, who is Chairperson of the Commission on Presidential Debates, dates having been set for September and October, including a debate between the vice-presidential nominees, and does anyone really believe Joe Biden and Donald Trump will square off on a stage together, even just once?  I sure don’t.”

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Israel-Hamas War….

--Saturday, the Hamas-controlled Palestinian health ministry said at least 28,000 Palestinians have been killed and 67,600 others injured in Israeli strikes on Gaza since Oct. 7.

--Israel carried out a special forces operation that freed two Israeli hostages in Rafah amid air strikes early on Monday that local health officials said killed at least 67 people in the southern Gaza city.

A joint operation by the Israel Defense forces, Israel’s domestic Shin Bet security service and the Special Police Unit in Rafah freed Fernando Simon Marman, 60, and Louis Hare, 70, the Israeli military said.

“It was a very complex operation,” Israeli military spokesman Lieut. Col. Richard Hecht said.  “We’ve been working a long time on this operation.  We were waiting for the right conditions.”

The IDF said the air strike on Rafah coincided with the raid to allow its forces to be extracted.

President Biden told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday that Israel should not launch a military operation in Rafah without a credible plan to ensure the safety of the roughly one million people sheltering there, the White House said.

Egypt threatened to suspend its peace treaty with Israel if Israeli troops were sent into Rafah and said fighting there could force the closure of the territory’s main aid supply route.

The threat to suspend the Camp David Accords, a cornerstone of regional stability for nearly a half-century, came after Netanyahu said sending troops into Rafah was necessary to win the four-month-old war against Hamas.

Egypt fears a mass influx of hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees who may never be allowed to return.

Aid agencies say an assault on Rafah would be catastrophic.  It is the last relatively safe place in the enclave.

Wednesday, Netanyahu said Israel will press ahead with its offensive in Rafah: “We will fight until complete victory, and this includes a powerful action in Rafah as well, after we allow the civilian population to leave the battle zones.”

--Hamas claimed that on Sunday, Israeli strikes had killed two Israeli hostages and seriously injured eight others.  “The conditions are becoming more dangerous in light of the inability to provide them with appropriate treatment.  (Israel) bears full responsibility for the lives of those injured in light of their continued bombing,” a statement read on Hamas’ Telegram channel. 

It was last week that Israeli military spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said 31 of the remaining hostages held by Hamas in Gaza were dead and that the families had been informed.

Netanyahu said in an interview with ABC’s “This Week” program, Sunday, that “enough” of the 132 remaining Israeli hostages held in Gaza are alive to justify Israel’s ongoing war in the region.

--Israel says it has uncovered a Hamas tunnel network under the headquarters of the UN Palestinian refugee agency, UNRWA.  Footage uploaded to X on Saturday showed a sprawling tunnel system under the HQ that ran nearly 60 feet deep and a half-mile long.

Electrical equipment at the scene suggests that the militants siphoned energy from the relief organization to power its terror infrastructure, the IDF said, which noted it had found similar power systems installed in tunnel networks that ran beneath hospitals in Gaza and stole electricity from the buildings.

--Wednesday, a barrage of Israeli strikes on villages across southern Lebanon killed at least 13 people, ten civilians and three fighters from Hezbollah, and wounded many more, according to Lebanese security sources, as Israel said it had responded to Hezbollah rocket fire that killed a soldier, a female.

IDF spokesperson Ilana Stein said: “As we have made clear time and time again, Israel is not interested in a war on two fronts.  But if provoked, we will respond forcefully.  The current reality, where tens of thousands of Israelis are displaced and cannot return to their homes, is unbearable.  They must be able to return home and live in peace and security.”

Hezbollah head Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said in a televised address on Tuesday that his group would only stop its exchanges of fire if a full ceasefire was reached for Gaza. “On that day, when the shooting stops in Gaza, we will stop the shooting in the south,” he said.

Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati condemned the escalation.

“At a time when we are insisting on calm and call all sides to not escalate, we find the Israeli enemy extending its aggression,” read a statement from his office.

The cross-border shelling has killed more than 200 people in Lebanon, including more than 170 Hezbollah fighters, as well as around a dozen Israeli troops and five Israeli civilians.  And the noted tens of thousands displaced in the border areas of both countries.

Hezbollah on Thursday then said it fired dozens of rockets at a northern Israeli town in a “preliminary response” to the killing of the ten civilians the day before. The Israeli military said it had killed three Hezbollah fighters but didn’t mention the civilians in what it described as a “precise airstrike.”

--Thursday, the Gaza Health Ministry said Israeli forces were storming the main hospital in the southern part of the territory after a prolonged standoff.

Nasser Hospital in the city of Khan Younis has been largely cut off by fighting for weeks.  On Wednesday, thousands of displaced Palestinians who had been sheltering there began departing after Israel said it had opened up a corridor for them to flee.

Overnight, Israeli fire into the facility killed a patient and wounded six others, medics said.

The IDF then said it had raided the hospital, with Rear Admiral Hagari saying the raid was based on credible information that Hamas was hiding in the facility, had kept hostages there and that bodies of hostages may still be there.  He said, “this sensitive operation was prepared with precision and is being conducted by IDF special forces who underwent specified training.”

One objective of the operation was to ensure the hospital could continue treating Gazan patients and “we communicated this in a number of conversations with hospital staff.”

--Friday, the spokesman for Hamas’ armed wing, Abu Obeida, said in an audio message that losses amongst Israeli hostages were many, and that the remaining hostages are living in extremely difficult conditions.

So release them!!!

--Also today, Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said, “The state of Israel will have to deal with Rafah because we can’t just leave Hamas there,” Katz at the Munich Security Conference. When asked where the refugees in Rafah would go, he suggested Khan Younis, but said that Israel would coordinate with Egypt to ensure Cairo’s interests were not harmed.  “We will coordinate with Egypt.”

Khan Younis?  This is nuts.

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The Week in Ukraine….

--Ukrainian President Zelensky announced five senior military appointments on Saturday, as he fills out his new team after naming Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi this week as the new armed forces chief.

Syrskyi has pointed out drones and electronic warfare as examples of new technology that would help Ukraine achieve victory.

--Also Saturday, a Russian drone attack killed seven civilians, including three children, in Ukraine’s Kharkiv, the second-largest city that still has 1.2 million inhabitants.

The Odesa region, including Ukraine’s Danube delta region, came under three waves of drone attacks the same day, hitting infrastructure, while injuring four.

Ukraine’s Air Force intercepted 12 drones in the area and a total of 23 drones were downed in both the Odesa and Kharkiv regions in total.

Russian defense minister Sergei Shoigu said in footage published by the ministry Saturday that the country’s production of military drones had ramped up in the past year, Shoigu shown during a tour of drone production facilities in the Volga River region of Udmurtia.  Russia has been relying on cheap Iranian-made Shahed drones.

Ukrainian commanders have said drones will be vital to gaining the upper hand in the conflict, and that the heavy use of drones by both sides is making it difficult for troops to make land advances.

--Russian forces then launched 45 drones over Ukraine Sunday, with the Ukrainian air force saying it had shot down 40 over nine different regions, including the outskirts of Kyiv.

--Russian police have put Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, Lithuania’s culture minister and members of the previous Latvian parliament on the wanted list, according to the Russian Interior Ministry.  Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Kallas was wanted for “desecration of historical memory.”

Russian state agency TASS said the Baltic officials were accused of “destroying monuments to Soviet soldiers,” which is punishable by a 5-year prison term under the Russian criminal code.

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have demolished most of their Soviet-era monuments, including those commemorating Soviet soldiers killed in World War II.  The politicians’ risk being placed under arrest only if they cross the Russian border.  All three nations are members of the European Union and NATO, and their relations with Moscow have worsened sharply since the start of the war.

--Ukraine’s military said Wednesday it sank a Russian landing ship in the Black Sea using naval drones.  The Caesar Kunikov amphibious ship sank near Alupka, a city on the southern edge of the Crimean Peninsula that Moscow annexed in 2014, Ukraine’s General Staff said.  It said the ship can carry 87 crew members.

Sinking the vessel is another embarrassing blow for the Russian Black Sea fleet and a significant success for Ukraine 10 days before the second anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Feb. 24, 2022.

Russia said last Saturday it had repelled without damage a Ukrainian drone attack on Russian “civilian transport ships” in the Black Sea.

Today, Friday, a U.S. defense official told reporters that Ukrainian forces have sunk, destroyed or damaged at least 20 medium-to-large Russian navy vessels and one Russian-flagged tanker in the Black Sea, significantly eroding Russian naval power that in turn has increased the dependability of Ukrainian grain exports.

--Thursday, at least six people were killed and eighteen wounded in a missile attack on Russia’s Belgorod, the regional governor said.  Russia’s state-owned RIA Novosti news agency said a shopping center was hit.

--White House spokesperson John Kirby said on Thursday that the Ukrainian city of Avdiivka is at risk of falling to Russian forces, citing Ukraine’s lack of artillery ammunition.  Ukraine said it was withdrawing troops from some parts of the city to better positions after months of heavy fighting, while sending in battle-hardened reserve fighters from a crack brigade.

Capturing Avdiivka is key to Russia’s aim of securing full control of the two provinces that make up the industrial Donbas region, and could hand President Putin a battlefield victory ahead of his re-election in March.  Ukrainian soldiers have described conditions there as “hell.”

--Russian forces in occupied Ukraine are using Starlink terminals produced by Elon Musk’s SpaceX for satellite internet in what is looking like their “systemic” application, Kyiv’s main military intelligence agency said on Sunday.

The terminals were rushed in to help Ukraine after Russia’s invasion and have been vital to Kyiv’s battlefield communications.  Starlink says it does not do business of any kind with Russia’s government or military.

The remarks from the defense ministry’s Main Directorate of Intelligence (GUR) were Ukraine’s first official statement about Russia’s alleged use of Starlink. GUR did not say how it thought the terminals had been obtained by Russian forces – whether for instance they had been procured from abroad or captured from Ukrainian forces. 

Starlink said on Feb. 8 that its terminals were not active in Russia and that SpaceX had never sold or marketed the service in Russia, nor shipped equipment to locations in Russia.

Starlink, in a statement posted on X, did not say anything about the terminals’ possible use in occupied areas of Ukraine.  “If SpaceX obtains knowledge that a Starlink terminal is being used by a sanctioned or unauthorized party, we investigate the claim and take actions to deactivate the terminal if confirmed,” it said.

--According to the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, Russia has lost around 1,120 tanks and 2,000 armored personnel and infantry fighting vehicles during its ongoing Ukraine war. That estimate suggests Russia “has now lost more tanks on the battlefield than it had when it launched its offensive in 2022,” according to IISS-Director-General Bastian Giegerich.  [Defense One]

--A senior U.S. defense official told reporters Friday morning that at least 315,000 Russian forces have either been killed or wounded during the war, which is the same estimate leaked to Reuters in December, citing declassified U.S. intelligence.  One year ago, that estimate was closer to 180,000.

The official said “Russia has probably spent up to $211 billion dollars in direct financial outlays to equip, deploy, maintain and sustain Russian operations in Ukraine” to date.

--Seth Jones of the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, said, “It’s fair to say that the Ukrainians have lost the military initiative, at least for the moment.”  But Russia’s defense industry is perhaps most concerning in the mid-term, and that’s in no small part thanks to the collaboration between Moscow and Tehran, as well as Pyongyang and Beijing.

However, Jones cautioned, “I think it is way too early to assess the likelihood of victory by either side.”  There are lots of examples from history where small powers wore down and defeated much larger ones – including “the Soviets losing Afghanistan, the French and the U.S. in Vietnam, the U.S. and NATO in Afghanistan, the French in Algeria.”  [Defense One]

--Russia’s Supreme Court on Thursday rejected two legal challenges by anti-war candidate Boris Nadezhdin following his disqualification from next month’s presidential election.

So on the March 15-17 ballot, Russians will have a choice between Vlad the Impaler; Vladislav Davankov of the New People party; Leonid Slutsky, leader of the Kremlin-loyal ultra-nationalist Liberal Democratic Party; and Communist Party nominee Nikolai Kharitonov, none of whom are critical of Putin or pose any serious challenge.

--Chris Wallace commented on Tucker Carlson’s recent interview with Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin, Wallace speaking out on his new show on CNN.

“Tucker Carlson showed up in Moscow this week to interview Vladimir Putin. It turned out to be anything but an interview. Putin droned on for hours and seven minutes while Tucker sat there like an eager puppy.  Occasionally, but rarely, he got in a question about the power of the deep state in Washington.”

Tucker Carlson (video clip): It sounds like you’re describing a system that’s not run by the people who are elected in your telling?

Putin: That’s right, that’s right.

Wallace: But more telling than what Tucker asked is what he didn’t ask.  Nothing about why Putin invaded a sovereign country, nothing about targeting civilians, nothing about Russian war crimes….

Wallace: During the Cold War, gullible westerners who spread Soviet propaganda were dismissed as useful idiots. But calling Tucker that is unfair to useful idiots.  He’s made a cynical decision to chase MAGA’s affection for dictators, and what better way to cash in than Putin’s Kremlin.

[In light of Alexei Navalny’s death, Carlson looks even more like a putz.]

Wednesday, Vladimir Putin praised Joe Biden as a more reliable alternative for Russia than Donald Trump, making his first public comments on the American presidential election.

“He’s a more experienced person, he’s predictable, he’s an old-style politician,” Putin said in a state television interview when asked which of the two candidates would be better for Russia, according to a video released by the Kremlin.

Putin dismissed a question about Biden’s mental acuity.

Eight years ago, Putin publicly praised then-candidate Trump amid accusations that the Kremlin sought to interfere in the 2016 election in his favor.

Putin is of course lying.

For his part, Trump said he took it as a ‘compliment’ that Putin would prefer Biden win.

“Now that’s a compliment,” Trump told supporters during a campaign rally in North Charleston, South Carolina.

Trump said without evidence that Putin would prefer Biden because he’s not as harsh against Russia in the wake of the country’s invasion of Ukraine.

“I got along good with him, but he doesn’t want to have me,” Trump said.

---

--As alluded to in my opening, former President Trump was up to his old tricks at a rally in South Carolina Saturday.  He recalled a conversation with an unnamed European leader about how he’d respond if a NATO member that hadn’t spent enough on defense was attacked by Russia.

“One of the presidents of a big country stood up and said, ‘Well, Sir, if we don’t pay, and we’re attacked by Russian, will you protect us’” Trump told the crowd.

Now the first thing to always remember about Trump is his usage of ‘Sir’ is the trigger.  As in what follows is a lie.

“‘You didn’t pay? You’re delinquent?’” Trump said he replied.  “‘No, I would not protect you.  In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want.  You gotta pay.  You gotta pay your bills.’”

On Trump’s comments, Frank Gardner, the BBC’s security correspondent, weighed in.

“This is typical Trump fare.  Say something provocative, grab some headlines, outrage your critics and thrill your fans.”  However, he argues, “If a future aggressor, be it Vladimir Putin in Europe or Xi Jinping in the South China Sea, begins to doubt Washington’s commitment to defend its allies, then it risks a massive miscalculation.”  Indeed, Gardner warns, “You don’t have to look far for an example.  Two years ago, President Putin’s intelligence people told him the West would sit on its hands if he invaded Ukraine.  They were wrong – and a catastrophic war has ensued.”

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“Donald Trump says many provocative things, often intentionally, to rile up opponents and dominate the airwaves. But his comments Saturday that he once told the leader of a NATO ally that he’d invite Vladimir Putin to invade is the reason many Americans won’t vote for him again even against a mentally declining President Biden….

“A charitable interpretation is that this is an extreme version of his boasts that he forced NATO countries in Europe to increase defense spending. There’s no doubt he coaxed more money from allies in his first term.

“But this isn’t 2020 anymore.  Russia has invaded Ukraine, bombed its cities and civilians, mused about using nuclear weapons, and threatened Finland and Sweden for seeking to join NATO.  Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty pledges every member of the alliance to aid another treaty member if attacked.  The only time it has been invoked was after the 9/11 attacks on America.

“Deterrence depends on a combination of force and the will to use it.  Mr. Trump’s boasts that he wouldn’t aid an ally will sow doubt in the minds of our allies and might encourage Mr. Putin to think he could get away with another invasion.  Mr. Putin has all but said that the Baltic states are rightfully Russia’s.

“Mr. Trump’s comments drew rebukes from several governments, and even the typically diplomatic NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg.  ‘Any suggestion that allies will not defend each other undermines all of our security, including that of the U.S., and puts American and European soldiers at increased risk,’ Mr. Stoltenberg said.  ‘I expect that regardless of who wins the presidential election the U.S. will remain a strong and committed NATO ally.’

“Mr. Trump’s riff also comes in the context of his lobbying against more U.S. military aid for Ukraine. He boasts about his admiration for Mr. Putin, and his bromance with the dictator during their 2018 Helsinki summit was a low point of his Presidency.  Mr. Trump now says he’ll end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours, even before he’s inaugurated. The only way to do that is to deny Ukraine more weapons and tell President Zelensky to give Mr. Putin what he wants. The word for that isn’t peace; it’s appeasement.

“The U.S. should be having an election debate over the growing dangers to U.S. security and how to counter them.  Instead, we have an incumbent who has presided over the collapse of U.S. deterrence, and a GOP front-runner who dotes on dictators.  No wonder Mr. Putin is looking so confident these days.”

It was pathetic to see many Republican senators come out to defend Trump’s remarks, dismissing them as rhetorical flourishes.

And then today, following the reported death of Alexei Navalny, Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley said this in a statement:

“Donald Trump continues to side with Vladimir Putin – a man who kills his political opponents, holds American journalists hostage, and has never hidden his desire to destroy America.”

As I go to post, late Friday afternoon, Donald Trump has been silent following news of Navalny’s death.

On the Ukraine aid legislation:

“I want to be clear about something, because I know it’s important to the American people,” President Biden told reporters at the White House.  “While this bill sends military equipment to Ukraine, it spends the money right here in the United States of America in places like Arizona, where the Patriot missiles are built; and Alabama, where the Javelin missiles are built; and Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Texas, where artillery shells are made.”

Republican Sen. Roger Wicker of Mississippi similarly told his constituents on Tuesday, “The United States’ economy also stands to gain as 75 percent of the bill’s funding will go to Americans, including $59 billion for weapons production.”

What happens next depends entirely on House Speaker Mike Johnson.  “The Speaker is going to have to decide where he wants to be in this chapter of history and whether or not just doing nothing is an option,” North Carolina Republican Sen. Thom Tillis told reporters after Tuesday’s vote.  If the House doesn’t act on aide to Ukraine before November, and Russian forces seize more territory, that would possibly have “huge political consequences,” and Republicans “are going to have to answer for that to the people back home,” Tillis said.

Biden said on Tuesday: “House Republicans: You’ve got to decide.  Are you going to stand up for freedom, or are you going to side with terror and tyranny? Are you going to stand with Ukraine, or are you going to stand with Putin?  Will we stand with America or with Trump?”

But the House will not consider Biden’s request until mid-March, as they are now on a two-week recess.  Pathetic.

According to a statement from the Pentagon, Europeans will invest a collective total of $380 billion in defense in 2024, which means “For the first time, this amounts to 2% of their combined gross domestic product,” and it “follows an unprecedented increase in 2023, which saw a rise of 11% in defense spending across Allies.”

NATO chief Stoltenberg said this week: “I expect 18 allies to spend 2% of their GDP on defense this year.”

---

Wall Street and the Economy

Tuesday’s consumer price index for January rocked the markets, Treasury yields soaring, stocks plummeting, the Dow Jones falling 524 points, after setting another record high on Monday.  The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose from Monday’s 4.15% to 4.31% as the CPI report seriously called into question whether the Federal Reserve will be cutting interest rates at the May 1 meeting, March having been taken out of the equation weeks ago.

The CPI rose 0.3%, and 0.4% ex-food and energy, 3.1% for the 12 months, 3.9% on core, the latter the same as December, with an expectation for 3.0% on headline (and hope for 2.9%) and 3.7% on core.

The index for shelter continued to rise in January, increasing 0.6% and contributing over two thirds of the monthly ‘all items’ increase. The food index increased 0.4%, with the food away from home index rising 0.5% over the month. The energy index fell 0.9% due in large part to the decline in gasoline prices (which are now headed back up).

I focused the last few weeks on auto insurance, noting my own 17% policy increase, and while it’s not a large component of the overall CPI calculation (just 2.794% to be exact), it has risen 20.6% nationwide over the past year, and it’s a hefty $ sum for the average American.  [A $280 increase in my case.]

And there’s a story in the Wall Street Journal today on the soaring cost of homeowner insurance.  Last week I mentioned California and the difficulties there, especially after the latest historic rains (let alone previous wildfire seasons), and of course Florida has always been an issue, as well as anywhere along the coast.  But it’s really everywhere.

The producer price report for January then came out Friday and it was more bad news. The PPI rose 0.3%, ex-food and energy 0.5%, and 0.9% and 2.0% on core for the 12 months; all four figures above consensus.

We have a critical PCE (personal consumption expenditures index) report on Feb. 29, this the Fed’s preferred inflation barometer, so we’ll see if somehow that number puts a May cut back in play.  [Actually, we’re moving on to June, so says the markets.]

It’s about the CPI and PCE, and to a lesser extent the monthly jobs report. Other measures such as Thursday’s retail sales report for January, a surprising -0.8% decline, and -0.6% ex-autos, while worse than expected and thus Fed friendly, just don’t really factor into Chair Jerome Powell and Co.’s decision making, though they can move markets for a day or two.

Thursday, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic, a voting member on the Open Market Committee this year, said there’s no rush to cut interest rates with the U.S. labor market and economy still strong, and cautioned it’s not yet clear that inflation is heading sustainably to the central bank’s 2% target.

“The evidence from data, our surveys, and our outreach says that victory is not clearly in hand, and leaves me not yet comfortable that inflation is inexorably declining in our 2% objective,” Bostic said in a speech in New York.  “That may be true for some time, even if the January CPI report turns out to be an aberration.”

January industrial production fell 0.1% when a gain was expected.

January housing starts came in at a surprisingly weak 1.331 million annualized pace, far less than the 1.47m expected, and the prior revised figure of 1.562m.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow still early barometer for first-quarter growth is at 2.9%.

Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed-rate mortgage surged 13 basis points to 6.77% this week.

I do have to note the thoughts of the International Monetary Fund’s managing director Kristalina Georgieva.  Monday, she said the IMF is “very confident” the global economy will see a soft landing, adding that interest rates would start coming down around mid-year.

“We are very confident that the world economy is now poised for this soft landing we have been dreaming for,” Georgieva said at the World Governments Summit in Dubai.

On the prospect of interest rates being cut in leading economies like the United States, she added: “I expect to see by mid-year interest rates going in the direction inflation has been going on for the last year.”

She cautioned to expect the unexpected in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic and said a prolonged war between Israel and Hamas, and a risk of spillovers, would impact global economies.

Europe and Asia

We had a flash reading on fourth-quarter GDP for the eurozone from Eurostat, unchanged vs. the third quarter, and up 0.1% from Q4 2022.

Germany was -0.3% Q/Q, -0.2% from a year ago. Putrid all around.

December industrial production in the EA20 rose 2.6% over November, but was down 2.4% year-over-year.

Britain: The UK fell into recession in the second half of 2023, not exactly a great backdrop for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak as he heads into this year’s expected election, Sunak having promised to boost growth.

GDP fell by 0.3% in the fourth quarter, after contracting 0.1% in the third.

But retail sales in January jumped by the most in almost three years, 3.4% from December, much stronger than forecast, and perhaps a sign the economy could emerge quickly from its recession.

Turning to Asia…China released no important economic data, as the first week of the Lunar New Year is always the one that everyone takes off.

Japan reported a surprise preliminary decline in fourth-quarter growth, -0.1% over Q3 2023, and -0.4% annualized, vs. a previous -3.3%.  The prior quarter’s reading over Q2 was -0.8%, as reported by the Cabinet Office on Thursday.  This means Japan unexpectedly slipped into recession, when growth was forecast for Q4. 

It’s all about anemic domestic demand, such as in the household spending figure I always cite.

But the Tokyo benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index rallied on the news to 38865 (intraday), the highest level since Jan. 1990, and nearing its all-time closing high set in Dec. 1989 (38915), before finishing the week at 38487.  The reason?  The central bank won’t be ending its negative interest rate policy as soon as market watchers thought.

However, with the GDP data, Japan slipped to the fourth-largest economy in the world in dollar terms last year, Germany now No. 3.

Separately, Japan’s January producer price index was up 0.2% year-over-year, while December industrial production fell 1.0% Y/Y.

Street Bytes

--Stocks finished marginally lower for the first week in six, thanks to Tuesday’s tumble, with the Dow Jones losing just 0.1% to 38627, after setting a new record of 38797 on Monday.  The S&P 500 lost 0.4%, though hit a new record high of 5029 on Thursday, and Nasdaq declined 1.3%.

Next week we get earnings from the Big Box retailers, like Walmart, but there is little economic news to move the markets.

--U.S. Treasury Yields

6-mo. 5.33%  2-yr. 4.65%  10-yr. 4.29%  30-yr. 4.45%

After Tuesday’s huge jump in yields, the market settled down some, though spiked anew Friday morning on the PPI #s.

--OPEC left its expectations for global oil-demand growth unchanged; but raised its economic forecast amid easing inflation and anticipated interest-rate cuts.

The cartel said in its monthly report that it expects oil demand to grow by 2.2 million barrels a day this year, in line with previous estimates. It also held its forecast for 2025 steady at 1.8 million barrels a day.

“Continued robust economic activity in China, global air travel recovery and expected healthy petrochemical feedstock requirements will be key for oil demand growth in 2024,” it said Tuesday.  “However, inflation levels, monetary tightening measures and sovereign debt levels could weigh on global oil demand prospects in the current year.”

The group raised its global economic-growth forecast to 2.7% this year and 2.9% the next, supported by interest-rate cuts from the second half of 2024 and growth momentum in the U.S.  Economic growth was previously forecast at 2.6% in 2024 and 2.8% in 2025.

It lifted U.S. economic-growth estimates to 1.6% this year and to 1.7% in 2025, while it left the eurozone growth forecast unchanged at 0.5% this year and 1.2% the next.

The International Energy Agency said global oil markets should remain “comfortable” this year as new supplies satisfy demand and keep prices in check.

The IEA has a lower growth forecast than OPEC for world consumption of 1.2 million to 1.3 million barrels a day, a “significantly weaker” pace than last year as economic growth slows in China and elsewhere, Executive Director Fatih Birol said.  This will be easily matched by swelling production from the Americas, predominantly the U.S., Canada, Brazil and Guyana.

--Natural gas futures fell more than 4% Wednesday, hitting a low not seen since June 2020 driven by near-record production, ample fuel storage, and forecasts of warmer weather.

--Autry Stephens, 85, announced he would sell Endeavor Energy Resources, the company that sprang from a well Stephens drilled 45 years ago, to Diamondback Energy in a $26 billion stock-and-cash deal.  Most of the proceeds will go to him and his family, yet in an interview with the Wall Street Journal on Sunday, hours before the sale was announced, Stephens said, “There is certainly some sadness on my part.”

One of the last of the Texas wildcatters, Stephens had held out on selling Endeavor, long viewed as one of the gems of the prolific Permian Basin West Texas and New Mexico, turning down the likes of Exxon Mobil.  Many of his employees spent their entire careers at Endeavor.

--Shares in Deere & Co. fell over 5%, Thursday, as the company lowered its full-year profit outlook as the agriculture and construction equipment manufacturer’s fiscal first-quarter results declined annually, as drops in shipment volumes weighed heavily.

Net income is now set to come in between $7.5 billion and $7.75 billion for fiscal 2024, down from previous guidance of $7.75bn to $8.25bn.

Sales in the company’s production and precision agriculture segment are forecast to fall by about 20% for the ongoing fiscal year, compared with its prior outlook for a 15% to 20% decline.  Construction and forestry sales are poised to decline by 5% to 10% versus previous projections for a roughly 10% slide.

“Moving forward, we expect fleet replenishment to moderate as agricultural fundamentals normalize from record levels in 2022 and 2023,” CEO John May said in a statement.

For the three months through Jan. 28, the maker of mowers, tractors and bulldozers recorded per-share earnings of $6.23, down from $6.55 a year earlier, but topping the Street’s view for $5.25. Sales slipped to $10.49 billion from $11.4bn, also ahead of the Street. Total revenue decreased 4% to $12.19 billion.

--Shares in Wells Fargo rose 7% late Thursday as the Biden Administration eased some of the restrictions on the bank, saying it had sufficiently fixed its toxic culture after years of scandals, that pressured employees into selling multiple products to customers though such products were not needed, which resulted in opening millions of unauthorized accounts.  And that’s just a start.

What it means is that Wells can rebuild its reputation and start growing again, as the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the regulator of big national banks like WFC, terminated a consent order that had been in place since September 2016.  The order required Wells to overhaul how it sold financial products to customers and provide additional consumer protections, as well as employee protections for whistleblowers.

Wells overhauled its management and directors, paying more than a billion dollars in fines and penalties.

This is a big victory for CEO Charles Scharf, who took over as CEO in 2019 and has slowly been bringing the bank back into compliance.

The Federal Reserve still has to remove its own consent order to allow Wells to grow no bigger than its current size, but the OCC’s decision should be enough to pressure the Fed to move quickly to do the same.

--Activist investor Carl Icahn has a nearly 10% stake in JetBlue Airways and may consider pushing for board representation, sending the shares up 17% on Tuesday after Icahn revealed his stake in a regulatory filing.

Icahn said in the filing the airline’s shares are undervalued and represent “an attractive investment opportunity.”

JetBlue has been losing money and its operation has faltered in recent years.  Incoming CEO Joanna Geraghty, who took the helm on Monday, has pledged “aggressive action” to get the carrier back on track.

--European aerospace giant Airbus said Thursday it would ramp up deliveries this year of some of the world’s most sought-after aircraft, bolstering its position as the largest plane maker and pulling further ahead of Boeing as its rival focuses on the fallout from a major safety crisis involving its 737 MAX line of airliners.

Airbus plans to deliver around 800 jets to customers this year, including the popular single-aisle A320neo, its main competitor to the 737 MAX. It delivered 735 planes last year, more than it had originally targeted.

Airbus also pulled in a record 2,094 commercial aircraft orders last year, which added to the company’s already extensive backlog of 8,598 commercial aircraft.

Boeing, on the other hand, recorded 1,576 net orders and delivered 528 commercial airplanes.

Airbus reported adjusted earnings of 5.8 billion euros ($6.2 billion) in 2023, a small increase from the previous year.  Revenue was in excess of 65 billion euro, or $70 billion.

--Tuesday’s snowstorm in the Mid-Atlantic states led to 1,593 flights being canceled across the U.S., including 650 between Newark Liberty and LaGuardia.

--TSA checkpoint numbers vs. 2023

12/15…107 percent of 2023 levels
12/14…100
12/13…104
12/12…110
12/11…104
12/10…104
12/9…105
12/8…107

--Hotel operator Marriot International forecast 2024 profit below Wall Street expectations on Tuesday, as room revenue in the United States normalizes from post-pandemic highs.  Travel demand and costs in the U.S. have been returning to normal levels after seeing a post-Covid spike from “revenge travel.”

Travel companies are expecting their 2024 boost to come from China, the final region lagging in its recovery from the pandemic.

Marriot sees a full-year 2024 profit of between $9.18 and $9.52 per share, while analysts had expected $9.69.  Marriott’s revenue per available room rose 7.2% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, boosted by higher room rates and occupancy levels in China.  Full-year room revenue rose 14.9% compared to 2022.

But analysts believe the U.S. will underperform the broader globe this year.

Marriott reported an adjusted fourth-quarter profit of $3.57 per share, above analysts’ estimate of $2.12 per share.  Adjusted net income of $1.05 billion also beat forecasts of $623 million, largely due to a one-time tax benefit.  The Ritz-Carlton owner’s quarterly revenue reached $6.1 billion, roughly in line with expectations.

The shares fell over 5.5% on the lowered guidance.

--Shares in chip designer Arm Holdings Plc soared again on Monday, extending a stupendous three-day rally that saw the shares rise from a closing level of $77 on Wed., Feb. 7, to $164, intraday, Monday, before closing at $120 on Tuesday, Feb. 13, and then $128 today.

The company reported a blockbuster earnings report last week that showed artificial intelligence spending bolstering its shares.

--Cisco Systems shares fell 4% after the company posted solid results for the January quarter, but the networking giant provided guidance for the next two quarters that fell short of Wall Street expectations.

The company also gave more specificity on plans to reduce its workforce, about 5%, as part of a restructuring plan “in order to realign the organization and enable further investment in key priority areas.”   The cuts will affect a little over 4,000 workers.

Cisco continues to deal with a pileup of networking hardware inventory held by its customers. The company had warned in reporting October quarter results that an inventory glut at customers would result in slower shipments for at least a quarter or two.  And that indeed appears to be the case.

On the company’s call with analysts, CEO Chuck Robbins said Cisco is seeing “a greater degree of caution and scrutiny of deals” given an uncertain environment.  He said it’s taking longer than expected for companies to clear their inventory and that the process would still take another quarter or two.  Cisco is also seeing weak demand from cloud, telecom and cable customers, Robbins said.

For the January quarter, Cisco reported revenue of $12.8 billion, down 6% from a year ago, but above consensus of $12.7bn.  Adjusted profits were 87 cents a share in the quarter, topping estimates of 84 cents.

The core networking business saw revenue decline 12% to $7.08 billion.

Overall product revenue was down 4% in the Americas, 7% in EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa) and 12% in APJC (Asia-Pacific, Japan and China).

For the April quarter, Cisco sees revenue ranging from $12.1 billion to $12.3 billion, down about 16% from a year ago at the middle of the range, and well below the Street consensus of $13.1 billion.  Adjusted profit is seen for the quarter of 84 to 86 cents a share, vs. consensus at 92 cents.

And for the July 2024 fiscal year, the revenue and profit forecasts are less than current expectations, thus the decline in the share price.

--Tesla said Monday it is reducing the costs of two of its Model Y cars by $1,000 until the end of the month.

--Walmart is in talks to buy smart television-manufacturer Vizio, according to reports.  The move would give Walmart more places where it can sell ads and pitch shoppers on goods.

Walmart, including its Sam’s Club chain, has historically been Vizio’s largest customer.  Vizio is historically the largest television brand sold at Walmart by sales.

The deal talks demonstrate the importance of consumer data and ad space for retailers looking to compete with Amazon.

Shares in Vizio rose about 25% in Tuesday trading, while those of rival Roku fell nearly 9%.

--Nike said it will reduce its workforce by about 2%, or 1,600 people, in a bid to cut costs.

Nike CEO John Donahoe said the company is using its resources to increase investment in categories like running, women’s apparel and the Jordan brand, according to an employee memo.

--Wendy’s fourth-quarter earnings unexpectedly dropped as traffic weakness hurt comparable sales while the fast-food chain offered soft 2024 guidance.

Adjusted per-share earnings slipped to $0.21 for the quarter ended Dec. 31 from $0.22 a year earlier, consensus at $0.23.  Revenue edged 0.8% higher to $540.7 million, below the Street’s forecast for $546.8bn.

Same-restaurant sales growth slowed to 1.3% from 6.4% in the previous quarter.  U.S. growth slowed to 0.9% from 5.9%, while international comp sales expansion more than halved at 4.3%.

For 2024, Wendy’s forecast adjusted EPS of $0.98 to $1.02, under the Street’s view for $1.11.  The company said it sees global comp sales rising 3% to 4%.  For all of 2023, same-restaurant sales growth was 4.3%.

I have a coupon for ‘buy one baconator, get one for $1’ that I will be using soon, already drooling.

--Speaking of drooling, Shares of Shake Shack soared 26% on Thursday after the restaurant chain topped quarterly earnings expectations, on the back of higher prices and strong demand for its gourmet burgers and fries.

The company also saw traffic growth through the fourth quarter, defying an industry-wide slowdown in visits that has hurt major fast-food players, including McDonald’s.

The company reported total revenue of $286.2 million for the quarter ended Dec. 27, up 20% from a year earlier and above Street estimates of $280m.

--Back to bacon, U.S. demand for pork is 9% less than what it was 20 years ago, according to estimates from Kansas State University.  U.S. farmers, however, produce 25% more pork than they did two decades ago.

Which means we have glut that has shrunk U.S. pork producers’ profit margins to their lowest levels since 1998, according to the American Bankers Association.  Major processors like Tyson Foods lost millions of dollars on their pork operations last year.  Farmers lost roughly $30 on every hog, according to Iowa State University estimates.

The downward trends will continue unless pork producers can get more young consumers hooked on pork.  “Hey kid, check out this smell…there’s nothing better in the world.”  “Gee Mister, that does smell good.  What’s it called?”  “It’s called bacon, kid.  Here’s a free sample.”

[Madison Ave. can pay me later for this winning ad campaign.]

David Newman, senior vice president for market growth for the National Pork Board, told the Wall Street Journal, “We need to make pork relevant with the future consumer.”

--Hasbro said it expects a bigger hit to revenue in the first half of 2024 after reporting a steeper-than-expected drop in holiday-quarter results on Tuesday, as the Monopoly maker grapples with persistently weak demand for toys.  The company sees demand stabilizing in the second half of the year.

Hasbro executives warned that “a lot of older discounted inventory still remains” in its growth channels and value resellers, which will need a quarter or two to work through.

The results echo pressures seen across toy manufactures, including rival Mattel, which forecast tepid sales in 2024 after a softer holiday period.

Hasbro reported a net revenue decline of 23% to $1.29 billion in the quarter ended Dec. 31, missing analysts’ average estimate of a 19.3% drop to $1.36bn. Adjusted earnings per share of 38 cents were below consensus of 66 cents.

HAS shares fell slightly on the news.

--New York just had its busiest in-office week since the start of the pandemic.  Office occupancy in the Big Apple clocked in at 52.1% for the seven-day period ending Feb. 7, up 1.1% from the week prior and exceeding the previous record of 51.4%, which the city hit in early December, according to Kastle Systems, which tracks badge swipes at commercial office buildings.

Across the 10 major U.S. cities Kastle tracks, the average is currently 51.8%.

--The Super Bowl drew a record average of 123.4 million viewers across CBS and other outlets, including Paramount+ and Univision, with 120.0 million of that coming via the main feed on CBS, the most in Super Bowl history.

The previous record was last year’s Chiefs-Eagles contest (115 million), which aired on NBC.

The relationship between Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift certainly helped, a dynamic that has been drawing in casual audiences to these games throughout the season.

President Biden stupidly passed up the traditional pre-game interview for a second year.  White House officials told reporters earlier this week they made the decision because Super Bowl viewers wanted to watch football, not the president, which is a bunch of B.S., or malarkey, as Biden himself might say.

But it’s yet another sign that the president’s staff doesn’t trust him not to make a fool of himself.

The New York Times editorial board said Biden’s decision to skip the Super Bowl interview was part of a pattern of “less substantive, unscripted interaction with the public and the press than any other president in recent memory.”

So, the Biden campaign rolled out a new TikTok page for the president, which was goofy.

--Amazon is getting an NFL wild-card playoff game next season, providing an opportunity for Amazon to bring a massive audience to its Prime video platform.  Nothing is official yet, but the story is out there.

NBC carried a wild-card game on its Peacock service on Jan. 13, delivering what it called the largest live streaming audience in history with an average audience of 23 million viewers.

Foreign Affairs, Part II

Iran: Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen launched two missiles toward a Greek-owned, Marshall Islands-flagged cargo vessel carrying Brazilian corn on Monday, U.S. Central Command said in a statement.  The missiles resulted in “minor damage” but no injuries to the crew of the vessel.

Over the weekend, the U.S. carried out several “self-defense strikes” against four Houthi drone ships, seven anti-ship cruise missiles, and one mobile land attack cruise missile, all of which “were prepared to launch against ships in the Red Sea,” CENTCOM said Friday and Saturday.

The U.S. apparently launched a cyberattack on an Iranian spy ship that has been operating in the Red Sea, helping with intelligence and targeting.

Today, an Indian-bound tanker carrying crude oil was attacked with a missile in the Red Sea, the U.S. State Department said, sustaining minor damage with no injuries reported.

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency said a Panama-flagged tanker had reportedly been hit off Yemen as well, the vessel sustaining minor damage.

China: From the South China Morning Post: “The U.S. is likely to deploy nearly half of its aircraft carriers in the western Pacific this year, in a signal of deterrence against the increasing military activity in the region by China and North Korea, analysts said.

“Three U.S. aircraft carriers are already operating in the western Pacific Ocean, with two more on the way. Their arrival will mark the first time that five of the 11-strong carrier contingent have operated in the region.”

The carriers are the USS Abraham Lincoln, USS George Washington, USS Ronald Reagan, USS Carl Vinson and the USS Theordore Roosevelt.

The USS Ronald Regan will be relocating from Yokosuka, Japan for maintenance at the Puget Sound naval shipyard in Washington.

Meanwhile, Taiwan’s defense ministry said it detected 14 mainland Chinese air force planes operating around the island and carrying out “joint combat readiness patrols’ with PLA warships on Wednesday.

Last Saturday, a record eight mainland Chinese balloons were detected around Taiwan, with two directly flying over the island, Taipei said.  The balloons were spotted at altitudes from 15,000 to 38,000 feet.

Separately, two Chinese fishermen drowned while being chased by the Taiwanese coastguard off Taiwan’s northernmost Kinmen archipelago. Taipei said the fishing boat trespassed into Taiwanese waters on Wednesday.  The four fishermen on board resisted an inspection and the boat capsized when authorities gave chase.

Beijing “strongly condemned” the incident, saying it “seriously hurt the feelings of compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Strait.”

Kinmen lies just 3km away from China’s southeastern coast (Fujian), placing it on the frontline of tensions between the two.

Holman W. Jenkins, Jr. / Wall Street Journal

“If the U.S. can’t find the focus and perseverance to steer the Ukraine war to an acceptable outcome, try figuring out how a future showdown over Taiwan ends.

“China blockades and attacks the island.  The U.S. blocks China’s oil and grain imports.

“The Chinese sink a couple of our ships.  We sink a couple of theirs.

“They bomb our bases on Guam or Okinawa. We bomb theirs on the mainland.

“It’s not a war about Taiwan anymore. Both sides are fingering their nuclear weapons.  It’s also a war neither side should want but a paranoid and demonstrably obtuse authoritarian regime avoiding a disastrous miscalculation is a crummy variable to bet on.  A sad and visible corollary right now is that the U.S., with all its allied strength and potential, hasn’t deterred much lately.”

North Korea: The influential sister of Kim Jong Un, Kim Yo Jong, kind of out of nowhere said there is no impediment to closer ties with Japan and there may come a day when Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida visits Pyongyang, state news agency KCNA said on Thursday.

Kishida, whose nation has no formal diplomatic ties with Pyongyang, has said he was exploring possibilities to meet North Korea’s leader to resolve the matter of Japanese civilians abducted in the 1970s and 1980s.

Kim Yo Jong, a deputy department director in the ruling Workers’ Party, and a woman I consider more dangerous than her brother, said Kishida’s comments could be considered positive if meant to advance relations.

“If Japan…makes a political decision to open a new path for improving ties based on mutual respect and respectful behavior, it is my view that the two countries can open a new future,” she was quoted as saying.

Kim added her view was a personal observation, which makes this whole thing curiouser, as she is widely considered the closest confidant and adviser to her brother on external policy matters.

Otherwise, North Korea fired multiple cruise missiles off its east coast on Wednesday, South Korea’s military said.

Pakistan: In a shocking result in Pakistan’s general election last weekend, independent candidates backed by jailed ex-prime minister Imran Khan’s PTI party had the lead.

Independents won 101 of the National Assembly seats, with at least 93 of them PTI-backed candidates, according to the BBC.

That put them ahead of ex-PM Nawaz Sharif’s PMLN who won 75.

Independent candidates who did not win then flooded courts with vote-rigging allegations.

Both the PTI and the PMLN said they want to form the next government.

What made the result a surprise was that the PMLN was seen to have the powerful military’s backing and thus expected to win, especially given Khan had been jailed on various charges as I’ve written in this space the past few weeks.

To govern, a candidate has to show they are at the head of a coalition with a simple majority of 169 seats in the National Assembly.

Bilawal Bhutto (the son of assassinated premier Benazir Bhutto) from the PPP received the third largest number of votes.

The National Assembly is comprised of 336 seats, 266 decided by direct voting and 70 reserved – 60 for women and 10 for non-Muslims – which are allocated according to the strength of each party in the assembly.

What made the result so volatile is that independent candidates are not eligible to be allocated reserved seats in parliament.

The New York Times noted, “Never before in the country’s history has a politician (Khan) seen such success in an election without the backing of the generals – much less after facing their iron fist.”

So us outsiders can draw the conclusion that certainly aspects of the election were conducted fairly.

Imre Khan said that independent members of parliament backed by his party will join the minority MWM party to form a government after the inconclusive vote.  An official of Khan’s party said Khan would decide who the prime minister of this government will be.

But…Pakistan’s second and third political blocs agreed to cooperate, and ex-prime Minister Nawaz Shair’s PMLN and Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s PPP issued a statement saying they planned to work together to bring political stability.

If they do work together, that will further anger Khan’s follower.

The PMLN then said that under the deal with Bhutto’s party, Shehbaz Sharif, younger brother of three-term Nawaz Shariz, will serve as prime minister.

We’ll see what happens when the new parliament convenes in the weeks ahead and who can prove they have a majority.

Fun and games in this nuclear-armed state.

Indonesia: A former general linked to past human rights abuses claimed victory Wednesday in Indonesia’s president election, a result that would raise questions about the commitment to democratic values in the sprawling island nation that is the world’s third-largest democracy.

Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, 72, presented himself as an heir to immensely popular sitting President Joko Widodo, whose son was the candidate’s running mate.

[The unofficial tally gave Subianto 57 percent.  It usually takes more than a month across this massive place, so they use “quick counts” based on actual votes at a sample of polling stations across Indonesia, which have proved to be accurate.]

Subianto was once banned from entering the United States for two decades because of his human rights record, going back to his days as an army general during the brutal Suharto dictatorship, which ended just over 25 years ago.  He served as a special forces commander in a unit linked to torture and disappearances, allegations he denies.

It will bear watching how Subianto approaches relations with China…that is what concerns me.

Random Musings

--Presidential approval ratings….

Gallup: 41% approve of President Biden’s job performance, 54% disapprove; 35% of independents approve (Jan. 2-22).

Rasmussen: 43% approve, 55% disapprove (Feb. 16).

--A CBSNews/YouGov poll of South Carolina primary voters has Donald Trump leading Nikki Haley by a whopping 65-30 margin, the primary Feb. 24.

At the same aforementioned Trump rally last Saturday in the Palmetto State, at Coastal Carolina University, Trump attacked Haley’s husband, a service member who is currently deployed in Africa.

“Where’s her husband? Oh, he’s away,” Trump said.  “He’s gone.  He knew, he knew.”

Haley responded at an evening rally in the state, defending her husband, Michael, and again challenging Trump to debate.

“I’ll say this: Donald, if you have something to say, don’t say it behind my back.  Get on a debate stage and say it to my face,” Haley said.   “If you mock the service of a combat veteran, you don’t deserve a driver’s license, let alone to be president of the United States.”

--Democrat Tom Suozzi won a special election for the House seat in New York once held by the expelled George Santos; Suozzi, a former congressman, defeating Republican Mazi Pilip, 54-46. 

Suozzi held the district for three terms before giving it up to run, unsuccessfully, for governor.  He has to run again in November and the district may look different due to a redistricting process, but for now the result narrows the already slim Republican majority in the House to 219-213, meaning Republicans can only lose two seats in any vote.

Former President Trump lashed out against Pilip – claiming she lost because she didn’t endorse him for president.  Trump wrote on Truth Social: “I have an almost 99% Endorsement Success Rate in primaries, and a very good number in the General Elections, as well, [Ed. no you don’t] but just watched this very foolish woman, Mazi Melesa Pilip, running in a race where she didn’t endorse me and tried to ‘straddle the fence,’ when she would have easily WON if she understood anything about MODERN DAY politics in America.”

Trump claimed that his supporters in the district stayed home and didn’t vote because Pilip was not a part of the MAGA camp and did not endorse him for the 2024 presidential election nor seek his endorsement.

“Give us a real candidate in the district for November,” Trump wrote in all camps.  “Suozzi, I know him well, can be easily beaten!”

--Former President Trump asked the Supreme Court to suspend a lower court ruling that he does not have presidential immunity from prosecution.  He had claimed in his election interference case he could not be tried for acts carried out as president.

A lower court ruling from three judges disagreed, ruling he could be prosecuted like any other citizen.

Trump’s lawyers disagreed, saying he should not be tried during an election campaign.

“Conducting a months-long criminal trial of President Trump at the height of election season will radically disrupt President Trump’s ability to campaign against President Biden,” Trump’s attorneys wrote in the filing.

And… “Without immunity from criminal prosecution, the Presidency as we know it will cease to exist.”  Which of course is bullshit.

The Supreme Court will decide if it will put the ruling on hold to allow Trump to appeal.  Granting the request would lead to a long delay in the Jan. 6 case, probably until after the election.

But, if the Supreme Court declines to put the ruling on pause, the federal trial overseen by Judge Tanya Chutkan, would be scheduled, most likely for spring.

Trump still faces charges in Georgia for an alleged attempt to overturn the 2020 election results in the state, and the classified documents case in Florida.

The top prosecutor in the Georgia election case, Fulton County DA Fanni Willis, took the stand Thursday to defend her relationship with a fellow prosecutor during a combative hearing.

Trump’s lawyers allege Willis’ relationship with Nathan Wade proved a conflict of interest.

To be continued….

--The former president will face trial in the Stormy Daniels hush-money case, trial date set for March 25 by Judge Juan M. Merchan, who on Thursday rejected Trump’s bid to throw out criminal charges against him.

This thus becomes the first of Trump’s criminal cases to go to trial.

--And late today, Trump was ordered to pay $354.9 million in penalties for fraudulently overstating his net worth to dupe lenders, New York state judge Arthur Engoron ruled.  Trump was also banned from serving as an officer or director of any New York corporation for three years.  [But he didn’t receive the ‘death penalty,’ barring him forever from having business in the state.]

The lawsuit, brought by New York Attorney General Letitia James, accused Trump and his family business of overstating his net worth by as much as $3.6 billion a year over a decade to fool bankers into giving him better loan terms.

Trump is expected to appeal Friday’s ruling. Don Jr. and Eric Trump each have to fork over $4 million and are barred as serving as an officer or director of any New York corporation for two years.

Engoron wrote: “Their complete lack of contrition and remorse borders on pathological.  Instead, they adopt a ‘See no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil’ posture that the evidence belies.”

--Tuesday, House Republicans stupidly impeached Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, 214 to 213, the first Cabinet secretary to be impeached in almost 150 years.

The result came one week after the stunning loss Republicans suffered when they last tried to impeach him, 215-215, with three Republicans voting with Democrats against the measure, both last week and Tuesday.

The difference this time was that House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, being treated for cancer, wasn’t able to make the vote last week but did the second time.  And Tuesday, a snowstorm prevented a few Democratic members from making it to the Capitol.

--Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin was admitted into intensive care late Sunday with an apparent bladder issue, after being hospitalized for the second time in a month.

Pentagon spokesman Pat Ryder said in a statement that Austin’s security detail brought him to Walter Reed National Military Medical Center with “symptoms suggesting an emergent bladder issue.”

“At this time, it is not clear how long Secretary Austin will remain hospitalized,” the physicians said.  “The current bladder issue is not expected to change his anticipated full recovery.”

Austin transferred his functions and duties of the office to Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks, according to the Pentagon.

Monday evening, we learned Austin had undergone “non-surgical procedures under general anesthesia to address his bladder issue,” according to his doctors, and “A prolonged hospital stay is not anticipated,” they said in a statement. We were then told Austin would be able to resume his normal duties Tuesday, and later that day he checked out of the hospital.

However, “On the advice of his doctors, Secretary Austin will recuperate and perform his duties remotely from home for a period before returning to work at the Pentagon later this week.”

--Former Marine officer Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.), announced he was retiring from politics at the end of his term.  He announced his departure last weekend on social media, just four days after facing intense criticism and even shouting from hardline Republicans, including Marjorie Taylor Greene, for Gallagher’s decision not to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas last Tuesday.

“Electoral politics was never supposed to be a career and, trust me, Congress is no place to grow old,” he wrote in a statement.  After all, “the Framers intended citizens to serve in Congress for a season and then return to their private lives,” said Gallagher.  “And so, with a heavy heart, I have decided not to run for re-election,” he wrote.

This is a huge blow.  Gallagher is a great American.  He also doesn’t suffer fools gladly.  Prior to his announcement, I was thinking of him a lot. I’ve mentioned before he would be a terrific vice-presidential pick on a rational Republican ticket, but now I’m thinking of him and 2028, if the Trump fever ever breaks.

Or…when he announced he was resigning, I thought, ‘What about No Labels?’

Gallagher doesn’t have any national name recognition, but that can change.

He currently chairs the House’s Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, which has been investigating links between U.S. industries and the Chinese military for more than a year.  His role on that committee is one of his most proud accomplishments, he said.

Gallagher added in his statement: “Four terms serving you has strengthened my conviction that America is the greatest country in the history of the world. And though my title may change, my mission will always remain the same: deter America’s enemies and defend the Constitution.”

--Republican Larry Hogan, a popular former governor of Maryland, said Friday he plans to run for the state’s open Senate seat, expanding the map of potentially competitive races as the GOP tries to win back the chamber in 2024.

“For eight years, we proved that the toxic politics that divide our nation need not divide our state,” Hogan said in a video announcing his Senate campaign.  He called for “common ground for the common good” and suggested it has become “far too rare” in Washington for lawmakers to consider what’s good for the country over what’s good for their party.

The seat is open due to the planned retirement of longtime Democratic Sen. Ben Cardin.  Hogan will easily win the Republican nomination.

Democrats currently control the Senate 51-49 but are defending far more competitive seats than Republicans in states including Arizona and Montana.  Already Democrats are writing off West Virginia, after Sen. Joe Manchin announced plans to retire.

But Hogan does face an uphill climb, “Democrats have won every statewide federal election in Maryland for 44 years and 2024 will be no different,” said David Bergstein, a spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

--Special counsel David Weiss – who has previously filed criminal charges against Hunter Biden – announced new charges Thursday against a former FBI informant who officials say lied about the Bidens’ business dealings.

The indictment returned by a grand jury in Los Angeles accuses Alexander Smirnov of making a false statement and creating a false and fictitious record.  The charges amount to a stark rebuke of Rep. James Comer’s House Committee on Oversight and Accountability, where Republicans on same have touted Smirnov’s claims as Comer tried to build a corruption case against the president and his family.

--The mass shooting that unfolded at the Kansas City Chiefs’ Super Bowl celebration appeared to stem from a dispute between several people, authorities said the day after.

K.C. Police Chief Stacey Graves said that the 22 people injured in the shooting included eleven under the age of 16. A mother of two was also killed.

Three people were detained – including two juveniles – and firearms were recovered.  The two juveniles were then charged in a Kansas City family court, “gun related and resisting arrest charges.”

Under Missouri law, the juveniles need to be tried as such first, before they can be tried as adults.

It sucks, but watching the news when the story broke, I shrugged.  That’s the attitude of all of us these days, because we see it so often.

But I feel so awful for all the children brought to this parade, who will now have lasting nightmares instead of joyful memories.

--Lake Mead’s water levels rose this week to the highest point in nearly three years, according to measurements taken at the end of January by the Bureau of Reclamation, owing in part to California’s heavy rain and snow last week from an atmospheric river. [The snow is of course more a spring story when it melts.]

Lake Mead is the reservoir in Nevada and Arizona formed by the Hoover Dam on the Colorado River and is the largest reservoir in the U.S. in terms of water capacity.  It provides water to Arizona, California, Nevada and some of Mexico.

While California is no longer in drought (virtually all of it, that is), much of Arizona and New Mexico are still classified as in abnormally dry, moderate or severe drought.

--New York’s Central Park received 3.2 inches of snow on Tuesday (my area got 7-8 inches), the first snowstorm of over 2 inches for Gotham since Jan. 2022.

--You might be surprised to learn I watch Joel Osteen virtually every Sunday.  In my area, he’s on at 11:30 a.m. ET, and I’ve already watched over 5 hours of news and Sunday talk shows by then, so it’s a little break, especially in football season, when at noon I would tune in to one of the pregame shows.

I’ve always been struck by preachers, partly because of their amazing talent (at least the good ones) for public speaking.  I like Osteen because he builds his weekly missive on a single point, such as this past week, when he said he met a woman after a service who handed him a business card, she was in the financial services industry, and the gist of it was, she had the card made up four years before she went off on her own, and had been planning ahead that long, in pursuit of her dream, Osteen saying don’t be afraid to pursue same…such as in him obtaining the Compaq Center for his church.

I couldn’t help but muse hearing this, that that’s basically what I did.  StocksandNews.com was ready to launch long before I gave notice to my boss at PIMCO.  Everything was set, and as a few of you know, I rolled right into this the week I left, mid-February 1999.

So, it’s been 25 years, this week.  And more than once I’ve thought of the David Byrne line, “And you may say to yourself, ‘My God, what have I done?’” [Talking Heads – “Once in a Lifetime.”]

I am the only person in the world who has done what I have been doing, a running history of our times, both global financial markets and geopolitics.  A consistent narrative, fact-based, utilizing resources from around the world.

Well, now it’s time to sell.  But…I want to be able to continue to do this the rest of my life.  It is certainly one way to keep the brain active.

For now, understand that the resources I use cost a ton of money, whether it’s Bloomberg at $39.95 a month, or the Wall Street Journal at $19.95, or the South China Morning Post at $10 per…I subscribe to everything, let alone the host where this site resides!  That’s how I’m able to give you content you might not see otherwise.  I can guarantee the rest of you don’t subscribe to all this.  [Or you work at a news organization or perhaps an investment bank that does for its employees.]

I also have done the same thing for sports…25 years…like no one else in the world.  One person, me.  Think about all the online publications that have come about in just the last 10, 15 years…news and sports.  I was first.  Really.  For example, I own BarChat.com because I had the foresight to take it down in 1999. I own WeekinReview.net, because immediately in 1999 I attempted to purchase WeekinReview.com, the guy wouldn’t sell (his site had nothing to do with news), and ever since that domain has been a mess.

For those who have helped support me the last 25 years, especially those in the last year or two, I am eternally grateful.  But for those who have never helped me out in the past yet pick up something in my work each week you wouldn’t have otherwise known, please consider doing so now.

I have literally busted my ass for my readers, taking two weeks off, in 25 years.  Two weeks.  Charging nothing.

Finally, back to Joel Osteen, because of him being on my mind last Sunday, I was shocked like many of you to hear of the shooting at his Lakewood Church just hours later.  The shooter was taken down by two off-duty officers working security.  The woman, who started firing with an AR-15, one of two rifles she had in a backpack, also had her 7-year-son by her side and he was struck in the head by gunfire.  He remains in critical condition, last I saw.  A man in the church was also wounded but a mass shooting was averted by the heroism of the officers.

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Pray for the men and women of our armed forces…and all the fallen.

Pray for Ukraine, Israel and the innocent in Gaza.

Pray for the family of Alexei Navalny and his supporters.

God bless America.

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Gold $2024
Oil $79.14…highest weekly close since November

Bitcoin: $51,900 at 4:00 p.m., ET…after hitting over $52,500

Regular Gas: $3.28; Diesel: $4.10 [$3.42 / $4.53 yr. ago]

Returns for the week 2/12-2/16

Dow Jones  -0.1%  [38627]
S&P 500  -0.4%  [5005]
S&P MidCap  +0.7%
Russell 2000  +1.1%
Nasdaq   -1.3%  [15775]

Returns for the period 1/1/24-2/16/24

Dow Jones  +2.5%
S&P 500  +4.9%
S*P MidCap  +1.7%
Russell 2000  +0.3%
Nasdaq  +5.1%

Bulls 59.0
Bears 18.0

Hang in there.  Enjoy the long weekend, unless you work in retail.

Brian Trumbore

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