10/14/2011
Seasonality: October Through December
I just received my copy of the 2012 edition of “Stock Trader’s Almanac,” the indispensable market bible put out by Jeffrey A. Hirsch & Yale Hirsch. So good time to take a look at the historical performance of the markets the last three months of the year.
From 1950-2010, the average monthly returns for the S&P 500 are as follows.
Oct. 0.6%
Nov. 1.5%
Dec. 1.7%
The average monthly returns for the Nasdaq, 1971-2010, are:
Oct. 0.3%
Nov. 1.6%
Dec. 2.1%
As for the period 2000-2010, here are the monthly percentage returns, October through December.
S&P 500
2000… -0.5 ... -8.0 ... 0.4
2001… 1.8 … 7.5 … 0.8
2002… 8.6 … 5.7 … -6.0
2003… 5.5 … 0.7 … 5.1
2004… 1.4 … 3.9 … 3.2
2005… -1.8 … 3.5 … -0.1
2006… 3.2 … 1.6 … 1.3
2007… 1.5 … -4.4 … -0.9
2008… -16.9 … -7.5 … 0.8
2009… -2.0 … 5.7 … 1.8
2010… 3.7 … -0.2 … 6.5
Nasdaq
2000… -8.3 … -22.9 … -4.9
2001… 12.8 … 14.2 … 1.0
2002… 13.5 … 11.2 … -9.7
2003… 8.1 … 1.5 … 2.2
2004… 4.1 … 6.2 … 3.7
2005… -1.5 … 5.3 … -1.2
2006… 4.8 … 2.7 … -0.7
2007… 5.8 … -6.9 … -0.3
2008… -17.7 … -10.8 … 2.7
2009… -3.6 … 4.9 … 5.8
2010… 5.9 … -0.4 … 6.2
Wall Street History returns Oct. 28.
Brian Trumbore
