Week in Review

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Week in Review

02/22/2025

For the week of 2/17-2/21

[Posted 4:30 PM ET, Friday]

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Edition 1,348

It was an immensely distressing, and disgraceful, week for America.

Ukraine had been excluded from the first negotiations on ending the war, talks between Russia and the United States, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was not happy.

But speaking late on Tuesday, President Trump said of Zelensky: “Today I heard, ‘Oh well, we weren’t invited. Well, you been there for three years.  You should’ve ended it after three years.  You should’ve never started it.  You could’ve made a deal.”

Recall, in last week’s review, I wrote “it wasn’t a great sign for Ukraine when Trump said of that country, and Zelensky, ‘that was not a good war to get into,’ seeming to forget who invaded who.”

This is straight out of the Kremlin’s playbook – that Ukraine somehow started the war has long been repeated by Russian propagandists.  The conflict began in 2014, when Russia illegally annexed Crimea, and began sponsoring pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine.

Moscow then launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine Feb. 24, 2022.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Trump “is the first, and so far only Western leader to publicly and loudly say that one of the root causes of the Ukraine situation is the impudent line of the previous administration to draw Ukraine into NATO.”

“It’s a signal that he understands our position,” Lavrov told the Russian parliament.

President Zelensky then accused Trump of repeating disinformation.

Speaking to reporters in Kyiv, Zelensky pushed back on several unfounded claims Trump made Tuesday.

“Unfortunately, President Trump – I have great respect for him as a leader of a nation that we have great respect for, the American people who always support us – unfortunately lives in this disinformation space,” Zelensky said.

Early Wednesday, President Trump then took to Truth Social, miffed by the disinformation claim:

“Think of it, a modestly successful comedian, Volodymyr Zelenskyy [Ed. the other spelling of his name], talked the United States of America into spending $350 Billion Dollars*, to go into a War that couldn’t be won, that never had to start, but a War that he, without the U.S. and ‘TRUMP,’ will never be able to settle. The United States has spent $200 Billion Dollars more than Europe, and Europe’s money is guaranteed, while the United States will get nothing back. Why didn’t Sleepy Joe Biden demand Equalization, in that this War is far more important to Europe than it is to us – We have a big, beautiful Ocean as separation.  On top of this, Zelenskyy admits that half of the money we sent him is ‘MISSING.’  He refuses to have Elections, is very low in Ukrainian Polls, and the only thing he was good at was playing Biden ‘like a fiddle.’  A Dictator without Elections, Zelenskyy better move fast or he is not going to have a Country left.  In the meantime, we are successfully negotiating an end to the War with Russia, something all admit only ‘TRUMP,’ and the Trump Administration, can do. Biden never tried, Europe has failed to bring Peace, and Zelenskyy probably wants to keep the ‘gravy train’ going.  I love Ukraine, but Zelenskyy has done a terrible job, his Country is shattered, and MILLIONS have unnecessarily died – And so it continues....”

*The United States has allocated $119 billion for aid to Ukraine, according to Germany’s Kiel Institute, not $350 billion.  President Zelensky said the U.S. has given $67 billion in military aid and $31.5 billion in support for Ukraine’s budget.

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“One challenge in the Trump era is distinguishing when the President is popping off for attention from when his remarks indicate a real change in policy and priorities.  President Trump’s rhetorical assault on Ukraine in recent days appears to be the latter, and perhaps it is a sign of an ugly settlement to come.

“Mr. Trump on Tuesday mimicked Russian propaganda by claiming Ukraine had started the war with Russia and that Kyiv is little better than the Kremlin because it hasn’t held a wartime election.  Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky replied on Wednesday that Mr. Trump was living in a ‘disinformation space,’ which may have been imprudent but was accurate.

“Mr. Trump escalated on Wednesday, as he usually does, calling Mr. Zelensky a ‘dictator,’ and suggesting Ukraine’s leader snookered the U.S. into supporting a war ‘that couldn’t be won, that never had to start.’  Mr. Zelensky ‘refuses to have Elections, is very low in Ukrainian Polls, and the only thing he was good at was playing Biden ‘like a fiddle.’’

“It’s tempting to dismiss this exchange as mere rhetoric, but it has the feel of political intention for Mr. Trump.  He may be trashing Ukraine’s democracy to make voters think there’s no real difference between the Kremlin and Kyiv.  He may think this will make it easier to sell a peace deal that betrays Ukraine.

“We doubt most Americans will overlook his false moral equivalence.  Mr. Putin’s war of conquest started three years ago this month when Russian troops rolled over the border and tried to capture Kyiv.  The war began not because Mr. Putin had legitimate security fears – but because the aging former KGB agent wants to reassemble most of the Soviet empire he saw crumble as a young man.

“Ukraine has delayed elections while it is operating under martial law and fighting a war for survival.  Its constitution allows this, and Britain under Nazi siege didn’t hold an election during World War II.  Was Churchill a dictator?

“Ukraine’s democracy is fragile and would be stronger if it could affiliate with Western institutions like the European Union.  The only dictator in the war is Mr. Putin, who poisons exiled Russians on foreign soil and banishes opponents to Arctic prison camps.  Call us when he holds a free election....

“Last week Mr. Trump said Ukraine can’t join NATO and must give up much of its territory to Russia – concessions to Mr. Putin with nothing in return. Mr. Putin’s response this week has been more drone attacks on Ukraine. And here we thought Mr. Trump doesn’t like being played.

“The better strategy than beating up on Ukraine is making clear to Mr. Putin the arms and pressure he’ll face if the Russian doesn’t wind down the war to accept a durable peace. As it stands now, Mr. Trump’s seeming desperation for a deal is a risk to Ukraine, Europe, U.S. interests – and his own Presidency.”

Former ambassador John Bolton on X:

“Trump’s characterizations of Zelensky and Ukraine are some of the most shameful remarks ever made by a U.S. President.  Our support of Ukraine has never been about charity, our way of life at home depends on our strength abroad.”

Peter Baker of the New York Times described Trump’s behavior as “one of the most jaw-dropping pivots in American foreign policy in generations, a 180-degree turn that will force friends and foes to recalibrate in fundamental ways.”

Former Vice President Mike Pence on X:

“Mr. President, Ukraine did not ‘start’ this war. Russia launched an unprovoked and brutal invasion claiming hundreds of thousands of lives.  The Road to Peace must be built on the Truth.”

That’s what this column has always been about...the Truth.

A Quinnipiac University national poll released this week had an overwhelming majority of voters, 81 percent, believing the United States should not trust Russian President Vladimir Putin, while 9 percent think the U.S. should trust him.

Donald Trump has yet to say anything critical of Putin.  Just as he did in his first term.  Instead, like then, he continues to trash our allies.

But it was Republican Sen. Roger Wicker who nailed it, in addressing Trump’s appalling view.

“Putin should be jailed for the rest of his life, if not executed.”

Trump pathetically attempted to walk back his comments today, but it’s too late.

More below.

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Trump, Elon, continued....

--Over the weekend the Office of Personnel Management ordered agencies to terminate most of an estimated 200,000 workers still in their probationary period.  The cuts primarily target employees who have been in their roles for less than two years and do not enjoy as much job protection.

More than 1,000 workers were terminated at the Department of Veterans Affairs and about 1,000 more were let go at the Energy Department.  The IRS was expected to fire thousands of workers. [By Thursday, the IRS was talking about 6,000; mostly those with probationary status.]

--Directly related to the above, a judge on Tuesday declined to immediately block Elon Musk’s government efficiency department from directing firings of federal workers or accessing databases, but said the case raises questions about Musk’s apparent unchecked authority as a top deputy to President Donald Trump.

Washington-based U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan denied – for now – a request by more than a dozen states for a judicial order barring DOGE from accessing computer systems at seven federal agencies or purging government workers while litigation plays out.

In her decision, Chutkan wrote that the states “legitimately call into question what appears to be the unchecked authority of an unelected individual and an entity that was not created by Congress and over which it has no oversight.”  But the judge said the states had not shown why they were entitled to an immediate restraining order.

Another federal judge ruled Thursday that the administration can continue its mass firings of federal employees.

U.S. District Judge Christopher Cooper in Washington, D.C., said Trump’s onslaught of executive actions in his first month in office have caused “disruption and even chaos in widespread quarters of American society.”  But he said he likely lacks the power to decide whether the firing of tens of thousands of government workers is lawful.

--The Social Security Administration’s acting commissioner has stepped down from her role at the agency over DOGE requests to access Social Security recipient information.

Acting Commissioner Michelle King’s departure from the agency over the weekend – after more than 30 years of service – was initiated after King refused to provide DOGE staffers at the SSA with access to sensitive information, we learned Monday.

The White House replaced King with Leland Dudek, who currently works at the SSA.

White House spokesperson Harrison Fields released a statement Monday night saying: “President Trump has nominated the highly qualified and talented Frank Bisignano to lead the Social Security Administration, and we expect him to be swiftly confirmed in the coming weeks.  In the meantime, the agency will be led by a career Social Security anti-fraud expert as the acting commissioner.”

In selecting Dudek, Trump bypassed dozens of other senior executives who sat higher in the agency’s leadership hierarchy, touching off alarm in and around the agency.

“At this rate, they will break it. And they will break it fast, and there will be an interruption of benefits,” said Martin O’Malley, the Social Security commissioner under the Biden administration and a former Maryland governor.

“It’s a shame the chilling effect it has to disregard 120 senior executive service people,” O’Malley said. “To pick an acting commissioner that is not in the senior executive service sends a message that professional people should leave that beleaguered public agency.”

On Fox News on Monday evening, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said she had been fighting “fake news reporters” who had been trying to “fearmonger” about Social Security payments.  Leavitt said Trump had directed Elon Musk only to identify “fraud” in the program, and that seniors’ retirement benefits would be protected.

The Social Security Administration’s records include all Social Security numbers, comprehensive medical records for those who have applied for disability benefits, bank information, earnings records and more.

For the past week, Trump and Elon Musk have repeatedly pushed unsubstantiated claims that dead Americans listed as 150 or older are receiving Social Security payments.

But Trump’s new acting commissioner, Lee Dudek, addressed what he called “recent reporting” about the number of people older than age 100 who could be receiving benefits from Social Security.

“The reported data are people in our records with a Social Security number who do not have a date of death associated with their record.  These individuals are not necessarily receiving benefits,” Dudek said.

--Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said U.S. taxpayers don’t need to worry about the security of their private data while Elon Musk’s team seeks to make the federal government more efficient.

Bessent then claimed the DOGE team had identified an estimated $50 billion in savings so far, the secretary told Fox News on Tuesday.  “So that’s a very good start.”

Bessent said one person at the IRS “is looking at an outdated IT system, that’s all they’re doing.”  He said two people at Treasury had “read only access” to the payments systems, meaning they don’t have the ability to make any changes.  “There are very strict guardrails around them.”

As for the $50 billion being claimed in savings, DOGE’s website only accounts for $16.6 billion of that, including an error that mislabels a contract’s value as $8 billion instead of $8 million.

--The Energy Department was left scrambling to bring back nuclear energy specialists after abruptly telling hundreds of workers that their jobs were being eliminated.

The employees, responsible for designing and maintaining the nation’s cache of nuclear weapons at the National Nuclear Safety Administration, were part of a larger wave of workers dismissed from the Energy Department, drawing alarm from national security experts.

The agency’s quick reversal was announced Friday in an all-staff meeting.  The NNSA is seeking to recall about 50 of the workers because they deal with sensitive national security secrets.

--Hundreds of Federal Aviation Administration employees, said to be 400, were fired over the weekend, fueling concerns among government and industry officials over new risks to air safety.

The probationary workers – those on federal payrolls less than a year – received termination letters.  Air-traffic controllers and aviation-safety inspectors didn’t get pink slips.

--The Trump administration fired 20 immigration judges without explanation, a union official said Saturday. It was unclear if they would be replaced.

Immigration courts are backlogged with more than 3.7 million cases, according to Syracuse University’s Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse, and it takes years to decide asylum cases.  There is support across the political spectrum for more judges and support staff, though the first Trump administration also pressured some judges to decide cases more quickly.

--Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth has directed Pentagon officials to redirect about $50 billion – about 8% of the expected total of roughly $850 billion – in the Biden administration’s fiscal 2026 budget proposal, as reported by Defense One.

Hearing this, Nebraska GOP Rep. Don Bacon, a member of the House Armed Services Committee and a retired Air Force intelligence officer, speaking about potential defense spending cuts on Friday in Honolulu, said: “We’re spending 2.9% of our GDP on defense. It’s inadequate.  That’s the lowest we’ve been spending since 1940.  It’s not enough to modernize the three legs of our [nuclear] triad, [or produce] fifth- and sixth-generation fighters. It is embarrassing that we’re producing 1.2 attack submarines a year. That’s unacceptable.  If I’m President, or SecDef, or in the HASC [which he is], we’ve gotta fix that. It’s not adequate in deterring China.  We just gotta be candid about it.  The level we’re spending and what we’re putting out in capabilities are not good.”

A plan for mass firings at the Pentagon was reportedly put on hold until “a more thorough review” is conducted to determine their likely effect on the U.S. military’s readiness, CNN reported Friday.

--President Trump said on Tuesday he has instructed the Justice Department to terminate all remaining Biden-era U.S. attorneys, asserting that the department had been “politicized like never before.”

“We must ‘clean house’ IMMEDIATELY, and restore confidence.  America’s Golden Age must have a fair Justice System – THAT BEGINS TODAY,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social.

While it is customary for U.S. attorneys to step down after a change in the administration, usually the incoming administration asks for their resignations and does not issue such tersely worded termination letters.

--The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scrambling to rehire “several” fired employees who play a key role in the agency’s response to bird flu, an agency spokesperson has acknowledged.

--The National Park Service plans to fire roughly 1,000 probationary employees who have worked at the agency less than one year, according to reports, but it is reinstating around 5,000 seasonal job offers that were rescinded last month due to the president’s federal hiring freeze.

There were real concerns that with more than 100 million Americans and international tourists typically visiting the national parks each year, a lack of seasonal staff could force visitor centers and campgrounds to close.

--President Trump asked the Supreme Court to let him fire the head of an independent U.S. agency that protects government whistleblowers, seeking high-court intervention for the first time in his campaign to oust federal officials who don’t embrace his views.

The filing, submitted Sunday but not yet formally docketed, asks the court to lift a temporary restraining order issued by a federal judge in Washington.  The order shields Hampton Dellinger from being removed from his position at U.S. Office of Special Counsel for 14 days.

--President Trump on Saturday posted on social media a single sentence that appears to encapsulate his attitude as he tests the nation’s legal and constitutional boundaries in the process of upending the federal government and punishing his perceived enemies.

“He who saves his Country does not violate any Law,” Trump wrote on Truth Social and then X.

Trump then pinned the statement to the top of his Truth Social feed.  The quote is often attributed to Napoleon Bonaparte.

Trump is suggesting that after surviving two assassination attempts, he has divine backing to enforce his will.

--As reported by WIRED magazine: “The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency has frozen all of its election security work and is reviewing everything it has done to help state and local officials secure their elections for the past eight years.  The move represents the first major example of the country’s cyber defense agency accommodating President Donald Trump’s false claims of election fraud and online censorship.”

CISA is under the Department of Homeland Security and DHS then fired 12 employees at CISA that policed “misinformation” while pausing “all elections security activities,” as reported by the Washington Post.

--The day after being sworn in as the new U.S. secretary of Health and Human Services, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. presided over the firing of 10% of the employees of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.  The 1,300 fired from the CDC join thousands of others being terminated by the Trump administration this week amid court challenges to the cuts’ legality.  The CDC is currently trying to track and contain a wide range of diseases, particularly an outbreak of bird flu.  Nearly 70 people in the U.S. have been infected by the bird flu, or H5N1 virus, and one person has died.

More on RFK Jr. below. 

--Trump on Wednesday said he was considering returning 20% of the savings from DOGE, potentially putting thousands of dollars in the pockets of Americans struggling under stubborn inflation.

“There’s even under consideration a new concept where we give 20% of the DOGE savings to American citizens and 20% goes to paying down debt,” Trump said in a Miami Beach speech to a nonprofit funded by Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund.

This is an incredibly stupid idea, even as I’d love a check as much as the next guy.  We were told the DOGE savings would help pay for the expected tax-cut extension to be worked out in the Republicans’ budget.  Whether you agree with the extension at a time of $36 trillion deficits is besides the point.  The GOP controls the House, Senate and the Presidency and they get their agenda.

But to hand out $5,000 checks when we’re supposed to be reducing the budget deficit, let alone the rate of increase in the federal debt, is nuts.

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Wall Street and the Economy

Not much economic news with President Trump’s threatened tariff rollout still to come (save for the new ones already on China).

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, a permanent voting member on the Open Market Committee, said recent economic data support keeping interest rates on hold, but if inflation behaves as it did in 2024, policymakers can get back to cutting “at some point this year.”

“If this wintertime lull in progress is temporary, as it was last year, then further policy easing will be appropriate,” Waller said in remarks in Sydney.  “But until that is clear, I favor holding the policy rate steady.”

Waller called last week’s inflation figures “mildly disappointing,” but emphasized that forecasts for the Fed’s favored gauge of inflation – the personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) – were less alarming. 

The PCE for January is released next Friday, and Waller said he expects core PCE, ex-food and energy, likely rose 2.6% from a year earlier.

We also had the minutes from the FOMC’s Jan. 28-29 meeting, with officials expressing their readiness to hold interest rates steady amid stubborn inflation and economic-policy uncertainty.

“Participants indicated that, provided the economy remained near maximum employment, they would want to see further progress on inflation before making additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate,” the minutes showed.

And... “Many participants noted that the committee could hold the policy rate at a restrictive level if the economy remained strong and inflation remained elevated.”

Policymakers are also watching the rollout of Trump’s economic-policy plans.

“Participants cited the possible effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy, the potential for geopolitical developments to disrupt supply chains, or stronger-than-expected household spending,” the minutes showed.

Other Fed speakers this week were more hawkish than Waller.

It was a light week for economic data in the U.S.  January housing starts came in at a 1.397 million annualized rate, below consensus and well below the prior month’s revised 1.515m number.

January existing-home sales came in less than expected, 4.08 million annualized pace, down 4.9% from the prior month, but up 2% from a year ago.

The median existing-home price was $396,900, up 4.8% from January 2024.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow barometer for the first quarter is 2.3%.

Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is at 6.85%.

While the market has sloughed off all the tariff talk, Trump did say he would likely impose tariffs on automobile, semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports of around 25%, with an announcement coming as soon as April 2 in a move that would represent a dramatic widening of the president’s trade war.

The previously announced 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum are set to take effect in March.

New levels on automobiles would have sweeping effects on the industry.  The roughly 8 million passenger cars and light trucks brought into the U.S. last year accounted for about half of U.S. vehicle sales.  European carmakers, including Volkswagen AG and Asian companies including Hyundai Motor Co. would be among the most affected. 

Trump didn’t specify whether the measures would target specific countries or apply to all vehicles imported to the U.S.

As for budget negotiations, the clock is ticking, with a March 14 deadline to avert a government shutdown.  The House moved a GOP budget outline through committee last week, but was out this week, while the Senate is going its own way.

Senate Republicans pushed a $340 billion budget framework to passage early Friday, pulling an all-nighter and beating back Democratic opposition in a 52-48 vote, Republican Sen. Rand Paul (Ky) opposing it.

The package the Senate passed is what Republicans view as a down payment on Trump’s agenda, part of a broader effort that will eventually include legislation to extend $4.5 trillion in tax breaks and other priorities.  The package would allow up to $175 billion to be spent on border security, in addition to a $150 billion boost to the Pentagon and about $20 billion for the Coast Guard.

House Republicans are trying to cram the president’s priorities into a single bill, but it is not going to be easy to find common ground. Lawmakers in both parties, however, vow to avert a shutdown.

Trump then backed the House’s plan on Truth Social.  The endorsement came out of the blue for some lawmakers, including Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.), who is shepherding his chamber’s two-bill approach. 

Thune told reporters he “didn’t have any immediate conversations” with Trump prior to the post.

“As they say, ‘Did not see that one coming,’” Thune said.

Europe and Asia

We had flash PMI readings for February in the eurozone, courtesy of S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank.

The composite was 50.2 (50 the dividing line between growth and contraction), with manufacturing at 48.7, a 9-month high, and the service sector reading at 50.7.

Germany: manufacturing 48.5 (9-mo. high), services 52.2
France: mfg. 44.6, services 44.5 (17-mo. low)

UK: mfg. 47.4, services 51.1

Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank:

“With just two weeks to go before the ECB [European Central Bank] meeting, the price front is sending bad news.  The HCOB PMI price indices for the services sector have risen or remained at a high level.  The statements by the ECB President can be interpreted as meaning that inflation can only be considered defeated once the services inflation is under control.  The HCOB PMI shows that this is definitely not the case.  This is partly due to the fact that wage settlements continue to be above average.  Interestingly, it can also be observed that input prices for goods are now rising more sharply.”

Germany: The big election is Sunday, Feb. 23.  Last week when he was at the Munich Security Conference, Vice President JD Vance fully waded into German politics, meeting with Alice Weidel, head of the nationalist, far-right, Alternative for Germany party (AfD), becoming the most senior U.S. official to do so.  But he met with the leaders of Germany’s two other major parties as well.

In his speech at the security conference, Vance blasted an audience of European prime ministers and presidents for failing to listen to their own voters, issuing a declaration of common cause with rising anti-migrant parties in Europe, who, like Donald Trump, are skeptical of international alliances and many of the hallmarks of the global system that developed in the aftermath of World War II and expanded after the fall of communism.

The AfD cause was helped by the incident in Munich last Thursday where a 24-year-old Afghan asylum seeker drove a car into a crowd of labor protesters, injuring 30. [And also the ISIS-related stabbing rampage in Austria, carried out by a 23-year-old Syrian refugee believed to have self-radicalized through TikTok.]

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, a member of the center-left Social Democrats, blasted Vance soon afterward.

“This democracy was called into question by the U.S. vice president,” Pistorius told the gathering.  “He compares the condition of Europe with what is happening in autocracies. This is not acceptable.”

Chancellor Olaf Scholz accused Vance of unacceptably interfering in his country’s imminent elections on behalf of a party that has played down the atrocities committed by the Nazis 80 years ago.

Scholz accused Vance of effectively violating a commitment to never again allow Germany to be led by fascists who could repeat the horrors of the Holocaust.

“A commitment to ‘never again’ is not reconcilable with support for the AfD,” Scholz said at the Munich Security Conference.

Scholz said the AfD had trivialized Nazi atrocities like the concentration camp at Dachau, which Vance visited during his trip. 

Now we await the decision of the German people.

Turning to Asia...China didn’t have any economic data of note this week.

Japan, on the other hand, had a slew of important data, with a reading on fourth-quarter GDP up 0.7% over the prior quarter, and 2.8% annualized, up from 1.7% in Q3.

January inflation figures were then released...0.5% over the prior month, 4% annualized vs. 3.6% prior.  Ex-food and energy the number is 2.5%.  Food prices have been rising sharply.

Japan’s flash PMI readings for February showed manufacturing at 48.9, services 53.1.

January exports rose 7.2% year-over-year, less than expected.  And December industrial production was -0.2% month-over-month, down 1.6% from a year earlier.

Street Bytes

--Stocks finished lower on the holiday-shortened week, with the Dow Jones finishing down 2.5% to 43428, the S&P 500 -1.7%, and Nasdaq -2.5%

Wednesday, the S&P hit a new all-time closing high of 6144, before falling Thursday and Friday to 6013.

The Dow’s performance was hampered in a big way on Friday with the Wall Street Journal report that the Justice Department has been investigating UnitedHealth Group Inc.’s Medicare billing practices.  Dow component UNH saw its shares tumble 7%.  Humana Inc., which has a large Medicare business, fell 6%.

UnitedHealth pushed against the report.  “We are not aware of the ‘launch’ of any ‘new’ activity,” the insurer said in a statement.  “Any suggestion that our practices are fraudulent is outrageous and false.”

The DOJ has been conducting a broad antitrust investigation of UnitedHealth’s practices that started under the Biden administration.

But the market was also slammed today by a weaker than expected consumer sentiment figure out of the University of Michigan, as uncertainty related to Trump’s trade policy lifted inflation expectations.  And there was a report of a potential new coronavirus out of China, but let’s not panic over this.  It was actually a report from days ago but finally picked up by some reputable folks today.

Next week, big earnings from Nvidia and Home Depot.

--U.S. Treasury Yields

6-mo. 4.33%  2-yr. 4.19%  10-yr. 4.42%  30-yr. 4.67%

Yields on the 2- and 10-year collapsed late on the equity market weakness.  Next week’s PCE is important.

--Crude oil prices fell a bit on the week to $70.27 on West Texas Intermediate, but the real action was with natural gas, which hit a 25-month high to $4.38/MMBtu, before backing off some, as cold weather strained supply and boosted demand.

--Occidental Petroleum reported adjusted earnings per share of 80 cents that beat expectations, but OXY missed on revenue, reporting a 9% drop in the quarter to $6.8 billion compared with $7.17 billion last year and consensus of $6.98bn.

Occidental said average worldwide realized crude prices declined 7% from the previous quarter to $69.73 a barrel. Average West Texas Intermediate prices in the quarter were $70.27 a barrel.

The Texas-based company is 28% owned by Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway. 

Slumping crude prices, as well as pledges by President Trump to raise energy production and keep oil prices low, have been weighing on the shares.

Occidental boasts a strong position in U.S. shale oil production, a sector that Trump wants to encourage.  But its decision to outbid Chevron to purchase rival Anadarko in 2019 has left it with a large overhang of debt.

Meanwhile, Buffett keeps adding to his stake, and now holds about 265 million shares, filings with regulators showed last week.  The stake is now worth $13 billion.

OXY also raised its quarterly dividend by 9% to 24 cents a share.

--Walmart posted another strong quarter as inflation-weary shoppers searched for value.  Eggs. Coffee. Gas.  The prices Americans pay for many everyday items have been stubbornly high.

Walmart’s revenue and adjusted earnings per share came in higher than the Street expected in the retailer’s fourth-quarter and fiscal 2025 results.  Quarterly revenue increased 5.3% to $182.6 billion, while adjusted EPS was up 10% to $0.66, compared with a year ago.

But the stock fell 6%, having soared 75% in the past year, after executives set fiscal-year revenue and profit targets below analysts’ expectations.

“Wallets are still stretched,” John David Rainey, WMT’s CFO said in an interview, but Walmart shoppers are acting basically the same as they have for several quarters, with cautious but steady spending.

Same-store sales for Walmart US increased 4.7% in the quarter, boosted by the company’s success in attracting more higher-income shoppers yet again, with its emphasis on value and convenience.

Walmart’s US e-commerce business saw a 20% increase in sales, fueled by in-store pickup and delivery. 

“We have momentum driven by our low prices, a growing assortment, and an eCommerce business driven by faster delivery times,” CEO Doug McMillon said in the release.  “We’re gaining market share, our top line is healthy, and we’re in great shape with inventory.”

The retailer’s US grocery business, which makes up 60% of total sales, saw mid-single digit same-store sales growth, boosted by increased foot traffic and e-commerce.

Net sales increased 5.6% for the 2025 fiscal year to $684.2 billion.

--Intel stock jumped 10% Tuesday following a report that its rivals Broadcom and Taiwan Semiconductor are exploring potential deals with the chipmaker that would split it into two.

The Wall Street Journal reported late Saturday that Broadcom is considering making a bid for Intel’s product business, which designs semiconductors for computers and servers.  The Journal also said TSMC has looked at controlling some or all of Intel’s factories, potentially as part of an investor consortium that would include major American chip designers.  But the talks are preliminary.

The previous week, Intel shares notched their biggest weekly gain since 2000 after reports surfaced that the U.S. government was working with TSMC to support Intel’s turnaround efforts.

--That was quite a dramatic landing for a Delta Air Lines regional jet at Toronto Pearson International Airport on Monday, miraculously no fatalities, 19 of 80 passengers injured, two critically, but no life-threatening injuries.  The plane landed hard and ended up on its back, with at least one of its wings clipped and snow on its underbelly.

The Bombardier CRJ-900, operated by regional carrier Endeavor Air, departed from Minneapolis-St. Paul.

There have been conflicting reports on whether there were crosswind issues, the region experiencing severe weather for days, but the runway was apparently dry.  But anyone observing the crash has to marvel at the structural integrity of the plane, with the seats remaining bolted, or this would have been a far different ending.

Delta announced that flyers on the plane have been offered $30,000 with “no strings attached” in the crash aftermath.  Passengers who accept the money could still take Delta to court after the terrifying ordeal.

--Southwest Airlines said Monday it will cut 15% of its corporate workforce, or 1,750 people – the first mass layoffs in the company’s history.

The cuts will start in April and include senior leadership, the company announced.

Southwest said it expects the layoffs will save the company $210 million this year and $300 million in 2026.  It expects a one-time charge between $60 million to $80 million for costs such as severance.

The airline has had a chaotic few years, with activist investors pointing out last year that the carrier’s share price was down more than 50% from early 2021.  Southwest then exceeded analyst expectations in its latest earnings report but that was because of rising airfares.

As recently as 2021, the company had boasted of never having layoffs.

--TSA checkpoint numbers vs. 2024

2/20...112 percent of 2024 levels
2/19...81
2/18...91
2/17...126...holiday Monday
2/16...92
2/15...86
2/14...130...Friday
2/13...146...Thursday...ahead of the holiday

--Mercedes-Benz announced further cost-cutting and more combustion engine and diesel cars than EVs in its new product range, in a bid to revive margins as the company braces for a sharp drop in earnings in 2025.

The German luxury carmaker will release 19 new combustion engine models and 17 battery-electric cars by the end of 2027, in a sign of renewed focus on its combustion engine offerings after its battery-electric sales collapsed by a quarter last year.

After a 30% slump in earnings in 2024, and 40% in its car division, this year will see earnings fall even further, Mercedes-Benz said, expecting a rate of return in its car division of just 6-8%.

Europe’s auto industry faces a number of big challenges this year, with Volkswagen and other carmakers as well as component makers announcing deep cuts as executives warn that the region’s energy and labor costs have become uncompetitive.

--Apple announced the newest addition to its largest business on Wednesday, and the shares hardly reacted.  The iPhone 16e succeeds the iPhone SE models as the cheapest smartphones in the company’s lineup – except they are no longer that cheap.  The new iPhones start at $599, compared with the $429 starting price of the most recent SE version.

The average price of the new 16e configurations is also just 31% below the average price of all the other iPhones Apple currently sells as new.  As former NBA star Derrick Coleman would have observed, “Whoopty-damn-do.”

--Alibaba shares surged to a multi-year high Friday after the Chinese e-commerce giant reported third-quarter revenues above analysts’ estimates and said it plans to invest more in e-commerce and AI.

The inclusion of Alibaba co-founder Jack Ma in a meeting of private enterprise leaders chaired by China’s President Xi this month, and photos of Ma shaking hands with Xi, further raised investor confidence in the company.

Alibaba said it is teaming up with Apple to power iPhones sold in China with its AI solutions, solidifying its foothold in a market where homegrown rival DeepSeek is making waves with cost-effective models.

--Palantir Technologies tumbled 10% late Wednesday as investors had several reasons to suddenly worry about the red-hot artificial-intelligence stock, including the CEO’s new plan to sell shares and potential U.S. defense budget cuts.

The Trump administration, as alluded to above, has warned the Defense Department about budget cuts ahead, and Palantir has several contracts with the government for use of its AI technology.

Additionally, CEO Alex Karp, who sold 40.7 million shares in 2024, adopted a new trading plan to sell up to 9.975 million shares through Sept. 12 this year.

--The South Korean government said on Monday that it had temporarily suspended new downloads of an AI chatbot made by DeepSeek, the Chinese company that has sent shock waves through the tech world.

On Monday night, the app was not available in the Apple or Google app stores in South Korea, although DeepSeek was still accessible via a web browser.  Regulators said the app service would resume after they had ensured it complied with South Korea’s laws on protecting personal information.

--KFC, the company so associated with Kentucky that state flags flew at half-staff when its founder Colonel Sanders died, is leaving the state in a really [crappy] move for folks there.

The former Kentucky Fried Chicken will move its corporate headquarters and about 100 employees to Plano-Texas, from Louisville, Ky., its parent company, Yum Brands, said in a statement on Tuesday.  Yum also owns Taco Bell and Pizza Hut.

The move puts an end to decades of the brand’s history in the state and drew immediate condemnation from Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D).  “I am disappointed by this decision and believe the company’s founder would be, too,” Beshear said in a statement.  “This company’s name starts with Kentucky, and it has marketed our state’s heritage and culture in the sale of its product.  My hope is that the company will rethink moving Kentucky Fried Chicken employees out of Kentucky.”

Harland Sanders, aka “Colonel Sanders,” started selling chicken from a roadside motel in 1930 in Kentucky.  He prepared the meat in a pressure cooker, which sealed in the flavor.  The secret chicken recipe, including its 11 herbs and spices, was established in 1939, and the colonel began wearing his trademark white suit in 1950.  The first Kentucky Fried Chicken franchise opened in 1952 near Salt Lake City.

--Disney/Marvel’s “Captain America: Brave New World,” was a runaway No. 1 at the global box office over the weekend, despite really lousy reviews, including a “rotten” rating from Rotten Tomatoes.

But the movie grossed roughly $100 million from Thursday through Monday in the United States and Canada and another $92 million overseas.  Past lousy Marvel movies saw the box office quickly run out of steam after No. 1 starts.

--Sunday night’s showing of SNL50, celebrating Saturday Night Live’s 50th anniversary, was ratings gold.  Try 14.8 million viewers on NBC and Peacock, based on Nielsen figures and internal numbers from NBCUniversal.  The show is NBC’s biggest primetime entertainment telecast in five years, since 18.33 million people watched the 2020 Golden Gloves.

The audience is also the second-largest for any non-sports primetime network show so far in the 2024-25 season, behind only the 15.4 million viewers for the Grammy Awards on CBS earlier in February.  Sunday’s show more than tripled the same-day season average for regular episodes of SNL, which draw about 4.9 million viewers. 

Viewership for the special will grow significantly in delayed viewing on Peacock and other digital platforms.

Foreign Affairs, cont’d....

Russia-Ukraine, Part II: President Trump’s top policy advisers were in Saudi Arabia Tuesday for talks with their Russian counterparts about ending the war.  Secretary of State Marco Rubio led the U.S. side, with national security adviser Mike Waltz and Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff.  Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and foreign affairs adviser Yuri Ushakov represented Moscow.

After four hours of negotiations – the most extensive in years between the two powers – participants in the meeting suggested that the U.S. and Russia would begin to work more closely together.

Secretary Rubio described a three-step plan that both countries had agreed to.  First, they would discuss ways to ease embassy restrictions.  They would also work on a peace settlement for Ukraine.  Finally, Rubio said, the U.S. and Russia would explore new partnerships, both in geopolitics and business.

President Zelensky on Monday said he “knew nothing about” the peace discussions in the Middle East until they were announced publicly.  Over the weekend, he made it clear that he would not accept any deal made without Kyiv at the negotiating table.

“I will never accept any decisions between the United States and Russia about Ukraine.  Never,” he told NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

After the meeting, Zelensky reacted angrily, insisting that it was very important that any peace negotiations did not happen “behind the backs of the key subjects.”  Any decisions, he added, “cannot be imposed” on Ukraine. [This was before Trump’s diatribe, and the back and forth between the two.]

Meanwhile, European leaders were playing catch-up on Trump’s moves to end the war, shocked to find themselves on the outside of high-stakes talks about the continent’s security and grappling with a likely retreat of U.S. forces from Europe.  Sec. Rubio said “real talks” with the Kremlin will involve Europe and Ukraine, but that follows a slew of mixed messages from Trump’s top officials.

The leaders held an urgently arranged meeting Monday in Paris, convened by French President Macron, in part to discuss the potential deployment of their troops to Ukraine as part of a ceasefire deal.

After the hours-long meeting, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said he welcomed talks about developing a peace agreement but said, “This does not mean that there can be a dictated peace and that Ukraine must accept what is presented to it.”  Ukraine must be able to continue on a path toward membership in the European Union, be able to defend its democracy and sovereignty, and maintain a strong army, he said.

Scholz also stressed the need for Europe and the United States to present a common front.  “There must be no division of security and responsibility between Europe and the USA.  This means that NATO is based on the fact that we always act together and take risks together and thereby ensure our security,” he said.

But 48 hours later, with Trump’s tirades, talk of a deal with European involvement appeared to be a pipedream.

--President Zelensky said he rejected a U.S. draft agreement that would give Washington access to critical minerals in his nation because it didn’t offer investments and sufficient protections, Zelensky noted Saturday at the Munich Security Conference.

Many experts believe the actual potential for rare-earth minerals is way overstated, plus much of it, if it exists, is in Russian-controlled Ukraine.

Separately, Zelensky called for the creation of an “armed forces of Europe,” because the U.S. may no longer be counted on to support the continent.

--Russia pummeled Kyiv Tuesday night with multiple Iran-made Shahed drones just hours after the meeting wrapped up in Saudi Arabia.

In central Kyiv, drone interceptions by the Ukrainian Armed forces lit up the night sky near the city’s iconic golden-domed St. Michael’s Monastery.

There were no reports of casualties.

The previous night, Moscow launched 176 drones into Ukrainian airspace, according to Kyiv’s air force, nearing an all-time high set in November, when Russia launched 188 drones into Ukraine in a single night.  No casualty reports here as well.

--A former top general in NATO slammed the Trump administration’s approach to Ukraine.  In the latest episode of the BBC’s “Ukrainecast,” posted Tuesday, a former deputy Supreme Allied Commander, British Gen. Richard Shirreff, talked about the administration’s recent efforts to forge some sort of end to Russia’s Ukraine invasion – without anyone from Kyiv at the negotiating table.

“A failure to understand what Russia is about.”  Shirreff said recent public statements in the U.S. and Europe by President Trump, SecDef Pete Hegseth, Sec. of State Rubio and Vice President Vance display no recognition that “what Russia is about is removing Ukraine from the map as a sovereign state, about incorporating Ukraine, either physically annexing it in terms of the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine, and installing a puppet government in Kyiv, so Ukraine becomes a sort of client state rather like Belarus.  Because that’s deep in the Russian DNA. And I think any American negotiator who doesn’t understand that and thinks there can be a durable, lasting solution with a sovereign Ukraine, and that Russia will accept that, is deluding themselves,” the general said.

What it all means, Shirreff continued, “is the Pax Americana is finished, that America has effectively abdicated its leadership of the free world because with leadership comes the responsibilities...”

In terms of a precedent for Trump seeking a Ukraine peace deal without Ukraine, consider this, said Shirreff: “Trump did the deal with the Taliban in 2020, over the head of the Afghan government, which resulted in the complete collapse of the NATO mission in August 2022.”

Host: “So maybe he’s learned from that?”

Shirreff: “I think it’s highly unlikely.  And the second point I’d make is that I don’t believe Trump has any understanding of the real nature of Russia.  And he’s kidding himself if he believes that he, the master of the deal, can sort this one out.”

--Thursday, a news conference that was planned following talks between President Zelensky and retired U.S. Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, Trump’s Ukraine envoy, was cancelled as political tensions deepened between the two countries.

Ukraine said the new conference was scrubbed at the request of the U.S. side.

--Maureen Dowd / New York Times

“Most of the world sees Volodymyr Zelensky as a hero and Vladimir Putin as a villain.  I feel queasy when I hear President Trump talking dotingly about Putin, a KGB-trained thug....

“But Putin has made it his business to seduce the president, so the easily flattered Trump sees Zelensky as the inevitable loser in his bid to keep Ukraine intact. As the Pentagon chief, Pete Hegseth, put it, Zelensky needs to get with it and understand ‘hard power realities,’ like the reality that he’s not getting all of his territory back.

“On Ukraine joining NATO, Trump sounds like a Putin spokesman, asserting that ‘Russia would never accept that.’

“In a speech in Brussels [last] Thursday, Hegseth said, ‘We can talk all we want about values.  Values are important. But you can’t shoot values.  You can’t shoot flags.  And you can’t shoot strong speeches.  There is no replacement for hard power.’

“But if we lose our values and abandon what those before us have fought for, are we the same America?  Our heroes preserved the Union and liberated Europe from the Nazis. We’re supposed to be the shining city on the hill.  It feels as if we’re turning our country into a crass, commercial product, making it cruel, as we maximize profits.

“I hope, as President Trump and Elon Musk exercise their ‘masculine maximalism,’ they remember the words of John Wayne in the 1972 western, ‘The Cowboys’: ‘A big mouth don’t make a big man.’”

David Ignatius / Washington Post

“Tuesday was a dark day for the United States.  President Donald Trump and his administration embraced Russia as a peace partner without demanding that it pay any price for its illegal invasion of Ukraine. And then, in a statement that turned morality upside down, the president blamed Ukraine for causing the war.

“Trump is an outrage-generating machine. He appears to take perverse pleasure in saying things that shock, and I normally ignore the daily presidential detonation. But this time was different.  The tragic loss of life in Ukraine will mean nothing – and a true resolution of the conflict will be impossible – if we can’t distinguish between the attacker and the victim....

“Vladimir Putin’s casus belli was a chilling act of dehumanization, and it was followed by a brutal assault that would have succeeded but for the brave resistance of President Volodymyr Zelensky and the Ukrainian people.

“Those are the moral and strategic issues at the center of the conflict. But somehow, in Trump’s monomania, the war is about him.  He has said often, with no evidence, that Russia wouldn’t have invaded if he had been president.  Now, he’s claiming Ukraine spurned his help and brought this existential fight upon itself.

“ ‘I could have made a deal for Ukraine that would have given them almost all of the land, everything, almost all of the land, and no people would have been killed, and no city would have been demolished, and not one dome would have been knocked down. But they chose not to do it that way,’ Trump said.

“What can he be talking about?  Trump had left the White House more than a year before Russia’s full-scale invasion.  Zelensky was eager to negotiate a real peace deal with Russia while Trump was president – overeager, perhaps.  But nothing came of it because Putin wanted conquest, not compromise....

“The president has effectively made Zelensky his adversary and, implicitly, moved toward open embrace of Russia’s anti-Zelensky line.  His words are also likely to leave deep scars in Ukraine.  One retired U.S. Army officer who’s working in Kyiv sent me an anguished message on Wednesday: ‘What the hell is happening in America?  From here we look like we’ve lost our minds. We’re not just losing our standing with current leaders but we’re losing the next generation who are watching and learning that America cannot be trusted.’....

“Trump has it right that the time has come to end this terrible war.  He put the pieces in place and began the process.  But then his monstrous ego got involved, and the peacemaking became bogged down in nonsense. This president, it must be said, is his own worst enemy.  If he truly wants peace in Ukraine, he should follow the first rule for negotiators: In public, just shut up.”

Israel-Gaza: Hamas released the bodies of four hostages Thursday, including the remains of a mother and her two young children, members of the Bibas family.  In Israel, the exchange was marked with somber gatherings.

The remains of the hostages were encased in four black coffins, with Hamas fighters dressed in dark fatigues delivering the coffins to teams from the Red Cross in Khan Younis, Gaza, where crowds had gathered to watch.

The Bibas family have become powerful symbols in Israel of the horrors of the Hamas-led attacks on Oct. 7, 2023.  Yarden Bibas, his wife, Shiri, and their two sons – Ariel, who was 4 years old, and Kfir, who was 8 ½ months old at the time of the abduction – were taken from their home in Kibbutz Nir Oz.  Yarden Bibas was released just over two weeks ago in a previous round of exchanges.  [The fourth body turned over was that of Oded Lifshitz, 84.]

But then we learned the body purported to be Shiri’s was instead an anonymous victim from Gaza.

Last weekend, Hamas released three hostages, with Israel releasing 369 Palestinians from Israeli jails.  The three released outwardly appeared to be in better physical condition than the emaciated figures of the week before.

Friday, Israel confirmed the names of the latest hostages it expects to be released by Hamas on Saturday, six – as outrage mounted over the terror group admitting it hadn’t released dead mom Shiri Bibas, despite making a despicable spectacle of coffins claiming to contain her and her young kids.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed revenge for what he described as a “cruel and malicious violation” of the ceasefire agreement.

The first phase of the ceasefire ends next weekend.  There is no second phase as yet.

--Separately, three empty buses exploded on the southern edge of Tel Aviv in what Israeli police say was a “suspected terror attack.”

It happened in parking lots in the city of Bat Yam on Thursday night. There were no casualties.  Devices on two other buses failed to explode, police said.

Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered the Israeli military to carry out “an intensive operation against centers of terrorism” in the occupied West Bank in response.

The Israel Defense Forces have been carrying out operations against Palestinian militant groups in the West Bank for months, especially focusing around Tulkarm and Jenin in the north.

Hundreds of Palestinians have been killed.

Syria: Syrian forces allegedly captured a senior ISIS commander in a raid assisted by U.S. intelligence late last week.

Charles Lister of the Middle East Institute wrote on social media Saturday: “ISIS ops in Syria have plunged to an all-time low since Assad fell [in early December], as much of the group’s manpower was shifted to Iraq.  Why?  The advantageous vacuum & recruitment dynamic under Assad vanished on Dec. 8 & ISIS always accused HTS of working with the U.S.”

Lister said Syria’s HTS-led transition in Damascus is in constant contact with the U.S. military in northeast Syria.  “I was told communication occurs ‘daily,’ as they deconflict & coordinate” the ongoing regional campaign against ISIS, Lister added.  [Defense One]

But while cooperation between the U.S. and Syria’s new leadership is positive, HTS is also demanding that the powerful Kurdish-led militia backed by the U.S. disarm and integrate into a unified national military force.

The new leaders in Damascus want the militia to give up its weapons as a condition to be included in a national dialogue, which is supposed to lead to the formation of an administration that will govern until elections can be organized.

No date has been set for the conference.  But it’s very possible the Kurds will remain on the sidelines and this may not end well.

China: The U.S. State Department dropped a statement from its website which stated that Washington does not support Taiwan’s independence – a move which has sparked anger in China.

China said the revision “sends a wrong...signal to separatist forces advocating for Taiwan independence,” and asked the U.S. to “correct its mistakes.”

The department’s fact sheet on Taiwan-U.S. relations earlier included the phrase “we do not support Taiwan independence” – this was removed last week as part of what it said was a “routine” update.

A U.S. spokesperson was quoted as saying that it remains committed to the “One China” policy, where the U.S. recognizes and has formal ties with China rather than Taiwan.

But, of course, most Taiwanese see themselves as part of a separate nation, although the majority are in favor of maintaining the status quo where Taiwan neither declares independence from China nor unites with it.

The factsheet, which was updated last Thursday, also says the U.S. will support Taiwan’s membership in international organizations “where applicable.”

On Sunday, Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung thanked the U.S. for what he called “positive, Taiwan-friendly wordings.”

But Beijing’s foreign ministry, in their regular press conference on Monday, slammed the move, calling the revision a “serious regression” in the U.S.’ stance on Taiwan.

“This sends a wrong and serious signal to separatist forces advocating for Taiwan independence and is another example of the U.S. stubbornly persisting with its wrong policy of using Taiwan to contain China,” said Chinese spokesperson Guo Jiakun.

“We urge the U.S. to immediately correct its mistakes [and] earnestly adhere to the One China principle.”

Random Musings

--Presidential approval ratings....

Gallup: New numbers...45% approve of President Trump’s job performance, while 51% disapprove.  37% of independents approve (Feb. 3-16).

The prior ratio, for Jan. 21-27, was 47-48, with 46% of independents approving, so the slide in this last figure is significant.

Rasmussen: 51% approve, 47% disapprove (Feb. 21).

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll has Trump’s approval rating at 44%, down from 47% in a January 20-21 survey.  His disapproval figure is at 51%.

The share of Americans who think the economy is on the wrong track is 53%, up from 43% in a January 24-26 Reuters poll.

A CNN/SSRA survey found Trump with a 47% approval rating, and 52% disapproving.

Most adults nationwide, 55%, say that Trump has not paid enough attention to the country’s most important problems and 62% feel he has not gone far enough in trying to reduce the price of everyday goods.  Sizable shares across party lines share the latter view, including 47% of Republicans, 65% of independents and 73% of Democrats.

More describe themselves as pessimistic or afraid when looking ahead to the rest of Trump’s second term (54%) then say they are enthusiastic or optimistic about it (46%).

A Washington Post-Ipsos poll had President Trump’s approval rating at 45%, 53% disapproving of his job performance.

A Quinnipiac University poll this week also has Trump’s approval rating at 45%, while 49% disapprove. 

So take out Rasmussen and there is a consistent range of 44 to 47 percent approval. 

In the Quinnipiac survey, 21% of voters approve of the way the Democrats in Congress are handling their job, which is an all-time low.  Forty percent of Republicans approve of the way Republicans in Congress are handling their job, which is a record high for Quinnipiac, going back to March 2009.

--The Senate confirmed Kash Patel as FBI director, 51-49, with Republican senators Lisa Murkowski (AK) and Susan Collins (ME) joining every Democrat in voting against.  This will be interesting.

--The Senate voted on Tuesday 51-45 to confirm President Trump’s nominee to run the Commerce Department, Howard Lutnick.

--Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell announced on Thursday he won’t seek reelection next year, though this was always assumed.

McConnell was first elected in 1984.  He intends to serve out the remainder of his term ending in Jan. 2027.

--Following up on last week’s story concerning New York City Mayor Eric Adams, after I posted, the Justice Department formally asked a federal judge to drop the public corruption case against Hizzoner.

The court filing, signed by acting Deputy Attorney General Emil Bove, moved to dismiss the charges against the Democratic mayor, who was set to go to trial this spring.  Two other prosecutors also signed off on the filing, after two prosecutors in Manhattan’s Southern District and five in Washington opted to resign rather than carry out Bove’s directive.

It is still up to the judge overseeing the case whether to dismiss the charges.

But then Monday, City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams, no relation, called on the mayor to resign, while four deputy mayors resigned.

At a Brooklyn church rally Monday afternoon, Adams bizarrely invoked “Mein Kampf” as he defiantly blasted rivals calling for him to step down.

During his remarks, Adams claimed he once heard Martin Luther King, Jr., recite a quote from Hitler’s infamous Nazi manifesto, that went something like, “If you tell a lie long enough, loud enough, people will tend to believe it’s true.”

“And that’s what you’re seeing right there, right now: A modern-day ‘Mein Kampf,’” Adams telling his supporters, appearing to imply he was being persecuted by liars.

The quote is actually most often attributed to Nazi propaganda minister Joseph Goebbels, not Hitler.

The federal judge in Manhattan then asked for patience, and more time, as he considers the request to drop the corruption case.  Gov. Kathy Hochul, who has the power to remove Adams, at first said she would wait for the judge to make a decision before determining whether to act.

Hochul then said Thursday she would not remove Adams, but plans to pursue legislation that will limit his authority.

The governor said the will of the voters and her respect for democratic elections preclude her from removing the Mayor.

Adams is seeking a second term this fall.

This afternoon, federal Judge Dale E. Ho announced he was delaying by at least a couple weeks when he will decide whether to grant the request to dismiss the case against the embattled mayor.

Adams confirmed at a hearing Wednesday that he accepted that charges could later be reinstated, a feature of the request to dismiss charges that has led critics to suggest that the mayor would be required to carry out Trump’s plans to round up New Yorkers who are in the country illegally if he wanted to remain free from prosecution.

--The ongoing measles outbreak in West Texas is up to at least 90 cases, mostly in children and teens, making it the state’s worst in nearly 30 years.  At least 16 have been hospitalized.

State health officials said last weekend that those who are infected are either unvaccinated or their vaccination status is unknown.  Thirteen people have been hospitalized.

The cases have been concentrated in a “close-knit, undervaccinated” Mennonite community, a Texas Department of State Health Services spokesperson Lara Anton said.

“The church isn’t the reason that they’re not vaccinated,” Anton added.  “It’s all personal choice and you can do whatever you want.  It’s just that the community doesn’t go and get regular health care.”

The outbreak is in a sparsely populated swath of rural Texas, near the New Mexico border, and it has spread into the latter state. 

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“The Senate voted 52-48 last week to confirm Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the nation’s health secretary.  In other news, 13 people in Texas were hospitalized for measles amid an outbreak of 48 cases [Ed. now 90+], almost all in children whose vaccination status is negative or unknown....

“The tragedy is that this doesn’t have to keep happening.  In 2000 measles were declared eliminated from the U.S., meaning 12 months with no continuous spread. Immunization has saved millions of lives around the world since the vaccine became available in 1963.  The peril isn’t small.  ‘About 1 in 5 unvaccinated people in the U.S. who get measles is hospitalized,’ according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.  ‘Nearly 1 to 3 of every 1,000 children who become infected with measles will die.’

“Yet for some people, the reality of measles feels like a sepia-toned history lesson, whereas the antivax hooey featured on podcasts these days sounds current.  RFK Jr., an environmental lawyer by trade, has long been part of the problem, and at his Senate confirmation hearings he presented himself as just asking questions, man.  That undersells his role in spreading doubt and confusion.

“ ‘Two doses of MMR vaccine’ – for measles, mumps and rubella – ‘are 97% effective at preventing measles,’ the CDC says.  But coverage is sliding. For the 2023-24 school year, the national estimate was 92.7% of kindergartners had two MMR doses, down from 95.2% in 2019-20.  An intervening shock was Covid-19, and there were bound to be consequences after health authorities burned their pandemic credibility.

“Restoring confidence matters, particularly since these trends have longer and deeper causes.  In Gaines County, Texas, where the measles outbreak is centered, state statistics show MMR coverage for kindergartners is 82%.  Texas law lets parents opt out of school vaccine mandates for ‘reasons of conscience.’....

“This is courting heartache that parents used to face routinely but that modern medicine has made unthinkable for most.  We are on record as skeptical of RFK Jr.’s nomination.  The Senate confirmed him.  Now the best-case scenario would be for Mr. Kennedy to internalize that he is no longer an activist outsider who needs to take provocative potshots to get attention.

“He’s the nation’s health secretary, and there are children in the hospital with measles who shouldn’t have to be there.”

--President Trump took a triumphant victory lap after the administration ordered New York to end congestion pricing on Wednesday.

“CONGESTION PRICING IS DEAD.  Manhattan, and all of New York, is SAVED.  LONG LIVE THE KING!”

Oh brother.

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy announced the decision on Wednesday, penning a letter to New York Gov. Kathy Hochul informing her that the administration would “terminate” approval of the congestion pricing program.

The MTA then immediately filed a lawsuit challenging the decision.

The first-in-the-nation congestion toll, which continues to garner mixed feelings from commuters, charges drivers $9 to enter Manhattan south of 60th Street.

The toll has received mixed reviews.  But the latest Morning Consult survey of 1,200 registered voters last week found that 60% of them believe Trump should allow the program to continue.  Traffic is indeed lighter.

It was not immediately known when the $9 tax would cease being collected.

But then Friday morning, Sec. Duffy said he’d be “100%” open to some form of congestion pricing, leaving the door open for tolls.  Just another freakin’ mess on the part of the administration.

--The White House continued to bar a credentialed Associated Press reporter and photographer from all events, including being prevented from boarding the presidential airplane Friday for a weekend trip with Donald Trump, as has been custom, saying the news agency’s stance on how to refer to the Gulf of Mexico was to blame for the exclusion.

The AP has been part of a press “pool” for decades.

Trump on Tuesday then said at Mar-a-Lago, “We’re going to keep them out until such time as they agree that it’s the Gulf of America.”

The administration has also ordered the State Department to terminate all non-essential news subscriptions to outlets such as the New York Times, AP, Reuters and Bloomberg News.  The Economist and Politico were added to the list.

A memo issued Feb. 11 instructed U.S. embassies and consulates across Europe to cancel subscriptions deemed non-essential.

--Brazil’s prosecutor-general said Tuesday that former leader Jair Bolsonaro knew and agreed to a plan to poison his successor and current President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, as part of an attempted coup to remain in power.

Prosecutor-General Paulo Gonet formally charged Bolsonaro for attempting a coup to stay in office after his 2022 election defeat.  He said that the plan also aimed at shooting dead Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, a foe of the former president.

“The members of the criminal organization structured at the presidential palace a plan to attack institutions, aiming to bring down the system of the powers and the democratic order, which received the sinister name of ‘Green and Yellow Dagger,’” Gonet said in the report.  “The plan was conceived and taken to the knowledge of the president, and he agreed to it.”

--At least 12 people died in the flooding and high winds in the southeast, Kentucky the hardest hit, with a mother and 7-year-old child getting stuck in high water, among 11 victims in the state.

In Atlanta, a person was killed when an “extremely large tree” fell on a home early Sunday.

--Sri Lanka had an extended power failure for days across the island after a monkey triggered a widespread blackout.

The animal had come into contact with a transformer at a grid station in a Colombo suburb, disrupting power to the entire country.  There was no word on the condition of said monkey.

--Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was justified in taking a shot at the U.S. Thursday night following Canada’s thrilling 3-2 overtime win against the United States team in the 4 Nations championship hockey game in Boston.

“You can’t take our country – and you can’t take our game,” the outgoing PM declared in a post on X, a not-so-veiled response to President Trump’s repeated threats to turn Canada into the 51st state.

--We learned more about Asteroid 2024 YR4 this week, and while scientists can only estimate the size, speed and mass because it is so far away, astronomers currently believe “2024 YR4 would create an airburst – or mid-air explosion – upon impact that would be equivalent to nearly 8 million tons of TNT, or 500 times the power of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima.  Such an explosion would affect roughly a 50-kilometer radius around the impact site.” [WIRED]

Astronomers on Tuesday said that the asteroid had become the most likely sizable space rock ever forecast to impact planet Earth.  The object is now estimated to be 130 to 300 feet long and the odds of it impacting Earth on Dec. 22 rose to 3.1 percent.

In 2004, a much larger asteroid was discovered, Apophis, with astronomers initially calculating its chances of hitting Earth in 2029 at 2.7 percent, but further observations of Apophis reduced the odds of an impact at any time during the next century to zero.

And that’s your ‘asteroid destroying Earth’ update for the week.

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Pray for the men and women of our armed forces...and all the fallen.

Pray for Ukraine.

God bless America.

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Gold $2947...another weekly closing high
Oil $70.27

Bitcoin: $94,910 [4:00 PM ET, Friday]

Regular Gas: $3.16; Diesel: $3.69 [$3.27 - $4.09 yr. ago]

Returns for the week 2/17-2/21

Dow Jones  -2.5%  [43428]
S&P 500  -1.7%  [6013]
S&P MidCap  -3.0%
Russell 2000  -3.7%
Nasdaq  -2.5%  [19524]

Returns for the period 1/1/25-2/21/25

Dow Jones  +2.1%
S&P 500  +2.2%
S&P MidCap  -0.6%
Russell 2000  -1.6%
Nasdaq  +1.1%

Bulls 47.5
Bears 29.5...I will have a statement about this indicator next week.

Hang in there.

Brian Trumbore

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