12/23/2011
The Global Economy, Presidential Election Years
Economic Indicators
Current 2011 GDP and unemployment rates*
United States +1.8 [GDP]…8.6 [unemployment rate]
China +9.2…6.1 [2010]
Japan -0.3…4.5
Britain +0.9…8.3
Canada +2.2…7.4
Euro Area +1.6…10.3
France +1.6…9.8
Germany +3.0…6.9
Greece -5.3…17.5
Italy +0.6…8.5
Spain +0.6…22.8
Russia +4.0…6.4
India +7.6…10.8 [2010]
Brazil +3.0…5.8
Israel +4.4…5.6
*GDP is estimated by The Economist Intelligence Unit; unemployment rate is last reported. Of course the Eurozone (as opposed to entire Euro area) is expected to have dipped into recession in the fourth quarter (when combined with an expected negative performance in the first quarter of 2012).
Presidential Election Years
Returns for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq since 1950 [Nasdaq’s inception was 1971]
2008 -38.5 percent [S&P] -40.5 [Nasdaq]
2004… +9.0… +8.6
2000… -10.1… -39.3
1996… +20.3… +22.7
1992… +4.5… +15.5
1988… +12.4… +15.4
1984… +1.4… -11.2
1980… +25.8… +33.9
1976… +19.1… +26.1
1972… +15.6… +17.2
1968… +7.7
1964… +13.0
1960… -3.0
1956… +2.6
1952… +11.8
Source: 2012 Stock Trader’s Almanac
*I will have more on this topic as 2012 unfolds.
U.S. Auto Industry
Market Share (thru November)
GM 19.3 percent
Ford 16.5
Toyota 12.5
Chrysler 10.5
Honda 8.9
Source: TIME
[Both Toyota and Honda’s market share has fallen sharply since 2009, as the Big Three’s share rises.]
Next Wall Street History around Jan. 3…a review of 2011’s numbers.
Merry Christmas.
Brian Trumbore
