07/27/2012
Housing Update
Time for my quarterly update of the housing situation in the United States, using the single-best barometer of all, existing home prices as published each month by the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Other measures, such as the S&P/Case-Shiller index, are good but they don’t have the database the NAR does.
This go ‘round we look at the second quarter of the year, always the peak for home prices. Specifically, prices peak in the month of June and then meander down the rest of the year, bottoming in January and February. So as we have no doubt bottomed after the popping of the bubble and are now in recovery mode after a full three years in the doldrums, going back to April 2009, the question is just how strong will the recovery be? The global economy, specifically the crisis in Europe and the issue of China’s slowdown will have a lot to say with our own economic performance and thus the housing sector.
2012
Apr. …$173,700
May. …$180,300
Jun. …$189,400 (preliminary)
2011
Apr. …$161,100
May. …$169,300
Jun. …$175,600
2010
Apr. …$172,300
May. …$174,600
Jun. …$182,900
2009
Apr. …$166,500
May. …$174,800
Jun. …$181,800
Using the NAR’s data, the median average for a full year was as follows.
2004…$185,200
2005…$219,600
2006…$221,900*
2007…$219,000
2008…$198,100
2009…$172,500
2010…$172,900
2011…$166,100
*Existing home prices peaked in July 2006 at $230,200… according to NAR. You can play around with the numbers any way you want but generally you’re talking of a ‘formal’ decline of 30%, peak to trough. That’s the national figure. Of course the damage elsewhere was far worse.
Source: realtor.org
Wall Street History will return in two weeks.
Brian Trumbore
