08/10/2012
The Market and Election Years
I thought we’d take a look at how the markets, as represented by the S&P 500, fare in the two months before a presidential election and the two months after.
Overall, in the 17 elections since 1944, the average return for September is down 0.5% and for October down 0.1%.
But the average return in November is up 0.6% and up 1.4% in December.*
Looking at presidential elections since 1952, I have listed the S&P returns for the four months bracketing each vote.
What should stick out is how volatile November has been, and how tame October normally is (save for 2008) when looking at the month in total, despite its reputation for extreme volatility.
[Monthly percentage returns…Sept/Oct…Nov/Dec]
1952 (Rep)… -2.0… -0.1….. 4.6… 3.5
1956 (Rep)… -4.5… 0.5….. -1.1… 3.5
1960 (Dem)… -6.0… -0.2….. 4.0… 4.6
1964 (Dem)… 2.9… 0.8….. -0.5… 0.4
1968 (Rep)… 3.9… 0.7….. 4.8… -4.2
1972 (Rep)… -0.5… 0.9….. 4.6… 1.2
1976 (Dem)… 2.3… -2.2….. -0.8… 5.2
1980 (Rep)… 2.5… 1.6….. 10.2… -3.4
1984 (Rep)… -0.3… -0.01….. -1.5… 2.2
1988 (Rep)… 4.0… 2.6….. -1.9… 1.5
1992 (Dem)… 0.9… 0.2….. 3.0… 1.0
1996 (Dem)… 5.4… 2.6….. 7.3… -2.2
2000 (Rep)… -5.3… -0.5….. -8.0… 0.4
2004 (Rep)… 0.9… 1.4….. 3.9… 3.2
2008 (Dem)… -9.1… -16.9….. -7.5… 0.8
*Source: “2012 Stock Trader’s Almanac,” edited by Jeffrey A. Hirsch & Yale Hirsch
Wall Street History will return in two weeks.
Brian Trumbore
