12/27/2013
U.S. GDP
The Bureau of Economic Analysis released its second, and final, revision of third quarter GDP on Friday, Dec. 20, and it came in at a strong 4.1%, annualized, from the second quarter to the third quarter.
“The increase in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from private inventory investment, PCE (personal consumption expenditures), nonresidential fixed investment, exports, residential fixed investment, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by a negative contribution from federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
“The acceleration in real GDP growth in the third quarter primarily reflected an acceleration in private inventory investment, a deceleration in imports, and accelerations in state and local government spending and in PCE that were partly offset by a deceleration in exports.”
We receive our first look at fourth quarter 2013 GDP next Jan. 30. Current consensus is for about 2.0%, though this forecast could rise depending on early January data.
Percent Change from Preceding Period in Real Gross Domestic Product
[Seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
Q1 2011... -1.3%
Q2 2011... 3.2%
Q3 2011... 1.4%
Q4 2011... 4.9%
Q1 2012... 3.7%
Q2 2012... 1.2%
Q3 2012... 2.8%
Q4 2012... 0.1%
Q1 2013... 1.1%
Q2 2013... 2.5%
Q3 2013... 4.1%
How big is the U.S. economy? Over the above period, Q1 2011 to Q3 2013, GDP has grown from $15.242 trillion to $16.912 trillion.
Source: bea.gov
Wall Street History returns in two weeks with our yearend review.
Brian Trumbore
