08/21/2015
Eurozone Bond Yields...update
[Posting date for the purposes of keeping consistency]
Update on my prior pieces on eurozone bond yields over the past year+, including price action since the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing (QE) program formally went into effect on March 9. [So I’ll note the yield the Friday before, March 6] I include non-euro Britain, the U.S. and Japan for comparison.
The reason for the updates is the extreme volatility largely created by the Greek debt crisis, but now things have calmed down and the ECB’s QE continues apace.
Nonetheless, for the historical record, and my one-of-a-kind archives...
Closing 10-year yields...3/31/14...3/6/15...6/10/15*...8/14/15
Germany 1.57 (3/31/14)... 0.39 (3/6/15)... 0.99 (6/10/15)... 0.65 (8/14/15)
France 2.08... 0.69... 1.32... 0.97
Italy 3.29... 1.31... 2.32... 1.80
Spain 3.22... 1.29... 2.29... 2.01
Portugal 4.06... 1.74... 3.07... 2.44
Greece 6.25... 9.09... 11.64... 9.65**
Britain 2.74... 1.95... 2.13... 1.87
Japan 0.63... 0.39... 0.50... 0.38
United States 2.73... 2.24... 2.48... 2.20
*6/10 is a key date for the likes of Germany and Britain, but, intraday, the period 6/16-17 was the top in yields for Spain (2.54), Italy (2.46) and Portugal (3.39). So those are the figures I keep in the back of my mind today.
You can see how rates moved down across the eurozone (save Greece) in anticipation of QE, but since the actual launch, rates have generally been rising. As in so much for QE.
**Greece, of course, was roiling through much of the above period and its 10-year hit a closing high yield of 19.44% on 7/9/15.
Ergo, if you had the courage, a helluva trade. [As I post, Monday p.m., 8/17, the yield is 8.71%.]
The euro yields may vary by a few basis points depending on your stat source. Mine is largely Bloomberg.com, as well as Investing.com.
Wall Street History will return in two weeks.
Brian Trumbore
