05/09/2017
Sell in May.....
Time for a review of the old ‘saw’ (maxim) on Wall Street, “Sell in May and go away.”
For the Dow Jones and the period 1950 thru April 2016, $10,000 invested May 1 – Oct 31, would have resulted in a loss of $319, while $10,000 invested Nov. 1 – April 30 resulted in a gain of $843,577.
When you look at the year-to-year returns for these respective six-month periods, four stand out for the May 1 – Oct. 31 period:
1974: -20.5%; 2001: -15.5%; 2002: -15.6%; 2008: -27.3%.
Of course all of these were during vicious bear markets.
For the S&P 500, $10,000 invested May 1 – Oct. 31 resulted in a gain of $8,036, while $10,000 invested from Nov. 1 – April 30 yielded a gain of $623,805.
For the same period, 1950 thru April 2016, the top four performing months for the S&P 500 were:
Dec. 106.7% (1.6% avg. change)
Nov. 99.0 (1.5)
April 98.8 (1.5)
March 83.4 (1.2)
For the Dow Jones:
April 127.6 (1.9)
Dec. 107.8 (1.6)
Nov. 99.1 (1.5)
March 77.7 (1.2)
The two worst months, for the S&P:
Aug. -6.0% (-0.09%)
Sept. -34.2% (-0.5%)
For the Dow:
June -21.9 (-0.3)
Sept. -50.1 (-0.8)
Source: 2017 Stock Trader’s Almanac; Jeffrey A. Hirsch & Yale Hirsch (www.stocktradersalmanac.com)
Wall Street History will return in two weeks.
Brian Trumbore
