Week in Review

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Week in Review

03/12/2022

For the week 3/7-3/11

[Posted 9:00 PM ET, Friday]

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Special thanks to Bob P. 

Edition 1,195

It gets more and more depressing by the day in Ukraine, and many of us turn to prayer, which doesn’t seem to be very effective.

But my anger grew after reading some of the comments of the Russian Orthodox leader, Patriarch Kirill; Ukraine with the second-largest Orthodox population in the world next to Russia.

The Orthodox Church shares quite a bit with Catholicism, and with a few million Catholics in Ukraine, as fears of a Russian invasion grew in December, Pope Francis expressed hope for a second meeting with Kirill following their historic encounter in February 2016, in Havana, Cuba, the first such meeting between a pope and Russian patriarch in a millennium.

But Francis and Kirill did not meet again, and the pope initially caught heat from some in the Church for not publicly condemning Russia’s invasion.

I didn’t think this was necessarily fair, as Francis took the extraordinary step of literally hopping into his car at the Vatican, with a small detail, the day after Russia launched its invasion, to visit the Russian embassy in Rome to voice his displeasure.  That just doesn’t happen, an unprecedented departure from usual diplomatic protocol.

And on Sunday, Francis rejected Russia’s use of the term “special military operation” for its invasion of Ukraine, saying the country was being battered by war and urging an immediate end to the fighting.

“In Ukraine, rivers of blood and tears are flowing. This is not just a military operation but a war which sows death, destruction and misery,” the pope said in his weekly address to crowds gathered in St. Peter’s Square.

The comments were the strongest yet by Francis, although once again he did not condemn Russia by name.

Instead, he repeated his appeal for peace, the creation of humanitarian corridors and a return to negotiations.

“In that martyred country the need for humanitarian assistance is growing by the hour,” the pope said.  “War is madness, please stop.”

Andriy Yurash, Ukraine’s ambassador to the Vatican, told Reuters he was “very, very happy” that Francis had called the conflict a war.

“Even if the pope did not say the word ‘Russia,’ everyone in the world knows who the aggressor that invaded us is and who started this unprovoked war,” he said.  The pope also made a point of thanking reporters who were covering the fighting despite the dangers, to report on the cruelty and suffering being experienced.

Earlier, the head of the Polish bishops’ conference did what Francis hasn’t done, publicly condemn Russia while urging the head of the Russian Orthodox Church to use his influence with Vladimir Putin to demand an end to the war and for Russian soldiers to stand down.

“The time will come to settle these crimes, including before the international courts,” Archbishop Stanislaw Gadecki warned in his March 2 letter to Patriarch Kirill.  “However, even if someone manages to avoid this human justice, there is a tribunal that cannot be avoided.”

So what has Patriarch Kirill, long known to be in the pocket of Putin, said about the war?  He has blamed liberal Western values – drawing particular attention to gay pride parades – for Russia’s invasion.

In his Sunday sermon, Kirill said the war is about “which side of God humanity will be on” in the divide between supporters of gay pride events – or the Western governments that allow them – and their opponents in Russian-backed eastern Ukraine.

“Pride parades are designed to demonstrate that sin is one variation of human behavior.  That’s why in order to join the club of those countries, you have to have a gay pride parade,” he said in his Forgiveness Sunday sermon.

The Russian church leader characterized gay pride parades as a “loyalty test” to Western governments, which Ukraine’s breakaway republics have “fundamentally rejected.”

Kirill then said; “In Donbas there is a rejection, a fundamental rejection of the so-called values that are offered today by those who claim world power.”

“We know that if people or countries reject these demands, they are not part of that world, they become strangers to it.”

Patriarch Kirill painted the Russian invasion of Ukraine in more apocalyptic colors as a conflict “far more important than politics.”

“If humanity accepts that sin is not a violation of God’s law, if humanity accepts that sin is a variation of human behavior, then human civilization will end there.”  [Moscow Times]

There you have it.  Better not hold a gay pride parade or the likes of Putin will be in the right if they then destroy your city and country as a result.

I’ll just pause here for a moment….before I tell Patriarch Kirill to go [blank] himself.

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More than 13,000 people have been arrested in Russia thus far for protesting Putin’s War.  Some 5,000 last Sunday, answering opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s call. 

At least we had a bit of comic relief this week, however.  As part of a protest against the invasion, a large truck was driven through the gates of the Russian embassy in Dublin.  The driver, Desmond Wisley, who later identified himself as a “working man” from Leitrim, backed his truck into the gates, forcing them open, as a number of protesters looked on.  There were some shouts of “Bravo” and “Well done” from the group.

Wisley then exited the vehicle and handed out photos of what he said were Russian atrocities in Ukraine.

“I just done this to create a safe corridor for the Russian ambassador to leave Ireland,” he said.

“I want the ambassador and his colleagues to leave this country, leave this free country,” he said.  “It’s about time we stood up.”

He then said he’d be arrested shortly.

“I’ve done my bit, lads.  It’s about time the rest of Ireland done their bit,” he said as he was led away by gardai.

Wisley is part of a family-run ecclesiastical supplies business, supplying products to churches including wine, bread, altar cloths, banner, candles and vestments.

I just want to buy this good man a pint.

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--Today, the Kremlin said that the conflict in Ukraine would end when the West took action over Russia’s repeatedly raised concerns about the killing of civilians in eastern Ukraine and NATO enlargement eastwards.

Russian officials have said the Western media has failed to report on what they cast as the “genocide” of Russian-speaking people in eastern Ukraine.

“We over the past eight years have repeatedly tried to ask our Western colleagues to put pressure on Kyiv – and to force Kyiv – to stop killing its people in the Donbass and to fulfill the Minsk agreements,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov* said.  “Also, for the past several decades, our country has repeatedly raised how we feel in danger after you moved your military infrastructure in our direction.  We don’t like it and we feel in danger and we can’t close our eyes to it: so why are you doing it?  There were no answers.”

*Peskov and his family are among those heavily sanctioned by the United States.

--Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said after a meeting with Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov Thursday that it appeared Russia will continue its offensive and seeks a surrender from Kyiv that it will not get.

Speaking at a press conference in southern Turkey, Kuleba said his impression from the meeting was that Russia is not in a position at this point to establish a ceasefire after invading Ukraine.

--Russia’s defense ministry on Thursday denied having bombed a maternity and children’s hospital in Ukraine’s Mariupol the previous day, accusing Ukraine of a “staged provocation.” The ministry said that Russia carried out no air strikes on ground targets in that area, respecting an agreed “silent regime.”

Foreign Minister Lavrov said earlier that Ukrainian forces had taken over the hospital, and that there were not patients there, adding the Western media were only presenting the Ukrainian point of view and there was a need to establish clear facts. 

Well the clear facts appear to be three dead, including a child, with at least 17 injured, the bombing coming despite a ceasefire deal for people to flee the besieged city.  The world outside of Russia (and I imagine China and North Korea) sees the reality.

Kremlin spokesman Peskov later said: “Russian forces do not fire on civilian targets.”  He added the Kremlin would look into the hospital incident.  “We will definitely ask our military, because you and I don’t have clear information about what happened there,” Peskov told reporters. “And the military are very likely to provide some information.”

A foreign ministry spokeswoman, Maria Zakharova, rejected the hospital bombing as fake news.  “This is information terrorism.”

But Mariupol’s mayor, Vadym Boichenko, said Russia was targeting residential areas “every 30 minutes” and at least 1,200 people have died, although the real figure is believed to be much higher because residents cannot leave their homes to retrieve dead bodies from the streets.

More than 400,000 people remain trapped in Mariupol, surrounded by Russian forces.

Ukrainian President Zelensky accused Russia of being a “terrorist state,” saying it prevented a delivery of food, water and medicine to the besieged city by attacking a humanitarian convoy with tank fire.

“They did it deliberately, they knew what they were blowing up, they have an order to keep the city a hostage, abuse it and bomb it constantly, and shell it,” Zelensky said in a video address late Thursday.

--Russia might use chemical weapons in Ukraine in a “false flag” attack to provide a retrospective justification for its invasion, but there is nothing to suggest a broader use of such weapons in the war, Western officials said Friday.

The United States denied renewed Russian accusations that Washington was operating biowarfare labs in Ukraine. It called the claims “laughable” and suggested Moscow may be laying the groundwork to use a chemical or biological weapon.

The United Nations on Friday said it had no evidence Ukraine had a biological weapons program.  Russia called a meeting of the 15-member UN Security Council to reassert through its envoy, without providing evidence, that Ukraine ran a biological weapons lab with U.S. support.

Member countries called the claim “a lie” and “utter nonsense” and used the session to accuse Russia of deliberately targeting and killing hundreds of civilians in Ukraine, as Russia continues to call their actions “a special military operation.”

--Officials said a third Russian major general had been killed in the fighting.  Officials said there had probably been around 20 Russian major generals deployed in Ukraine.  Vladimir Putin has fired a number of them for the ineptness of the operation to date.

One explanation for the high number in the field is that Russian “troops are unable to make decisions of their own and lack situational awareness, or where they are fearful of moving forward, at which point more senior officers come forward to lead from the front,” an official told Reuters.  The Russian forces’ advance had been slowed by logistical problems, low morale and Ukrainian resistance.

Western officials believe the Russians have lost about 5,000 to 6,000 soldiers already, a staggering sum.  Ukraine says it has killed 12,000.  Russia has confirmed about 500 thus far.

--Putin gave the green light on Friday for up to 16,000 volunteers from the Middle East to be deployed alongside Russian-backed rebels to fight in Ukraine.

--The Russian military expanded rocket and artillery strikes to several western Ukrainian cities on Friday, with more than 2.5 million refugees now having fled the country in desperation and fear over what might lie ahead.  Another 2 million are thought to be displaced, according to the UN today.

--The “40-mile-long” Russian convoy that was stalled for nearly a week had largely dispersed, according to the latest satellite imagery, apparently to regions around Kyiv as they attempt to hide in the woodlines, while others are still bunched up at intersections outside Kyiv.  Other images revealed shopping centers that have been burnt to the ground, as well as residential complexes with massive chunks blown away from artillery strikes in the suburbs surrounding the capital.

--A senior Pentagon official told reporters today that Russian warplanes are flying about 20 times more missions than their Ukrainian counterparts, though many never enter Ukrainian territory and simply lob long-range missiles from inside Russian airspace.

Russia’s roughly 200 daily sorties compare to around five to 10 a day by Ukraine, which is down to about 56 operational warplanes, according to the official, requesting anonymity, per Defense One.

Among the reasons for the conservative use of airpower over Ukraine on both sides are, first, Russia has surface-to-air missiles, or SAMs, in enough locations that it can shoot down Ukrainian jets in almost all parts of the country, and Ukrainians have held their jets back.

But the Russians are also being cautious, keeping their aircraft outside of Ukraine and launching long-range missiles from fighter jets and bombers outside of Ukraine’s borders instead.

--Today, President Biden announced the U.S. is suspending normal trade relations with Russia (“most-favored nation” status), while banning imports of Russian vodka, seafood, and diamonds.  “Putin is the aggressor, and Putin must pay the price,” Biden said.  “He can’t threaten the very foundations of international stability and then ask for help from the International Monetary Fund.”

--President Zelensky said today that Ukraine had “already reached a strategic turning point” in the conflict.  “It is impossible to say how many days we still have to free Ukrainian land.  But we can say we will do it.”

--Senior U.S. intelligence officials told lawmakers Tuesday that the world should take Russia’s escalating nuclear threats very seriously, while noting that they have not yet seen clear indications that Vladimir Putin would respond to military setbacks in Ukraine with nukes.

Avril Haines, the director of the Office of the Director for National Intelligence, said that Putin’s order that put the country’s nuclear forces on a “special regime of combat duty” was mostly “signaling” to keep NATO from intervening in Ukraine.

“He is effectively signaling that he’s attempting to deter and that he has done that in other ways. For example, having the strategic nuclear forces exercise that we indicated had been postponed until February, again, then as a method of effectively deterring,” Haines said.

At the hearing, CIA director William Burns said the Russian military doctrine contemplates the use of smaller tactical nuclear weapons.

“You know, Russian doctrine holds that you escalate to de-escalate, and so I think the risk would rise, according to the doctrine,” Burns said.

Army Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier, the head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, told lawmakers that Putin may think such weapons give him an asymmetric advantage.

“I also believe that when he says something, we should listen very, very carefully and maybe take him at his word.  So, this question is the one that analysts are pondering right now, and I think we really need to do some more work on it,” Berrier said.

On Thursday Director Haines said that Russian forces are operating with “reckless disregard” for civilians as they face stronger-than-expected resistance in Ukraine.

“The Russian military has begun to loosen its rules of engagement to achieve their military objectives,” Haines told the Senate Intelligence Committee’s annual hearing on worldwide threats to U.S. security.

--On Tuesday, President Biden vowed to do the previously unthinkable; ban Russian energy imports in response to its invasion of Ukraine.  Although Russian oil comprises a slim 3% of U.S. oil imports, spiraling energy prices hardly needed the additional impetus. 

While the embargo will ostensibly cripple Russia’s finances as it continues its brutal frontal assault on Ukraine, the shockwaves will be felt everywhere.

How high can oil go?  An economist the administration likes to quote, Moody’s Mark Zandi, warned $150 was the next stop, arguing in a Twitter thread that the U.S. needed to replace approximately 3 billion barrels of oil per day “fast,” as inflation threatens to become “unhinged.”

--Radioactive substances could be released from Ukraine’s Chernobyl nuclear power plant because it cannot cool spent nuclear fuel after its power connection was severed, Ukraine’s state-run nuclear company said on Wednesday.  It said fighting made it impossible to immediately repair the high-voltage power line to the plant, which was captured by Russian forces after the Kremlin launched its invasion.

Chernobyl, site of the world’s worst nuclear disaster in 1986, is still radioactive, with 20,000 spent fuel assemblies.

But the International Atomic Energy Agency said the loss of power at Chernobyl does not have any critical impact on safety.  “Heat load of spent fuel storage pool and volume of cooling water at Chernobyl sufficient for effective heat removal without need for electrical supply,” the IAEA said in a statement.

***I added an old piece I once did on Chernobyl to my “Hot Spots” link. Check it out.

--Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said on Thursday he did not believe that Russia’s standoff with the West over Ukraine would lead to nuclear war.  “I don’t want to believe, and I do not believe, that a nuclear war could start,” he told a news conference following his talks with his Ukrainian counterpart in Turkey, adding that rumors about a potential Russian attack against the former Soviet Baltic states “appear to be old hoaxes.”

--Ukraine’s top government economic adviser said on Thursday that invading Russian forces have so far destroyed at least $100 billion worth of infrastructure, buildings and other physical assets.  Oleg Ustenko told the Peterson Institute for International Economics in an online event that the war had caused 50% of Ukrainian businesses to shut down completely, while the other half are operating at well below their capacity.

The International Red Cross has warned that an estimated 18 million people in or from Ukraine will need humanitarian assistance as a result of the war.

--Hundreds of thousands of women and children have fled war and the likes of Hungary and Poland, Czech Republic, and Romania are keen to bring the women into their labor forces.  The region’s fast-growing economies, which have been struggling with a chronic shortage of workers that pre-dates even the pandemic, are welcoming the refugees with open arms.

Czech job vacancies climbed to a record high of nearly 364,000 in February.  Poland, which has long been a top destination for Ukrainian workers, reported 116,500 job vacancies last month.  The government there said they would have no problem integrating half a million women into the work force within three or four months.

[But there is a tipping point…too many refugees.]

--Russia’s inflation rate is forecast to accelerate to 20% and its economy could fall by as much as 8% this year, an independent survey of analysts requested by the Russian central bank showed on Thursday.  [Other experts say Russia’s economy will fall 15%.]

Annual consumer inflation hit 10.4% as of March 4, as the ruble touched historic lows, let alone the impact of all the sanctions.

Some commentary….

Editorial / The Economist

“When Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine, he dreamed of restoring the glory of the Russian empire.  He has ended up restoring the terror of Josef Stalin.  That is not only because he has unleashed the most violent act of unprovoked aggression in Europe since 1939, but also because, as a result, he is turning himself into a dictator at home – a 21st-century Stalin, resorting as never before to lies, violence and paranoia.

“To understand the scale of Mr. Putin’s lies, consider how the war was planned.  Russia’s president thought Ukraine would rapidly collapse, so he did not prepare his people for the invasion or his soldiers to their mission – indeed, he assured the elites that it would not happen.  After two terrible weeks on the battlefield, he is still denying that he is waging what may become Europe’s biggest war since 1945.  To sustain this all-encompassing lie, he has shut down almost the entire independent media, threatened journalists with up to 15 years in jail if they do not parrot official falsehoods, and had anti-war protesters arrested in their thousands.  By insisting that his military ‘operation’ is de-Nazifying Ukraine, state television is re-Stalinising Russia.

“To grasp Mr. Putin’s appetite for violence, look at how the war is being fought.  Having failed to win a quick victory, Russia is trying to sow panic by starving Ukrainian cities and pounding them blindly.  On March 9th it hit a maternity hospital in Mariupol.  If Mr. Putin is committing war crimes against the fellow Slavs he eulogized in his writings, he is ready to inflict slaughter at home.

“And to gauge Mr. Putin’s paranoia, imagine how the war ends.  Russia has more firepower than Ukraine. It is still making progress, especially in the south.  It may yet capture the capital, Kyiv. And yet, even if the war drags on for months, it is hard to see Mr. Putin as the victor.

“Suppose that Russia manages to impose a new government.  Ukrainians are now united against the invader.  Mr. Putin’s puppet could not rule without an occupation, but Russia does not have the money or the troops to garrison even half of Ukraine.  American army doctrine says that to face down an insurgency – in this case, one backed by NATO – occupiers need 20 to 25 soldiers per 1,000 people; Russia has a little over four.

“If, as the Kremlin may have started to signal, Mr. Putin will not impose a puppet government – because he cannot – then he will have to compromise with Ukraine in peace talks. Yet he will struggle to enforce any such agreement.  After all, what will he do if post-war Ukraine resumes its Westward drift: invade?

“The truth is sinking in that, by attacking Ukraine, Mr. Putin has committed a catastrophic error.  He has wrecked the reputation of Russia’s supposedly formidable armed forces, which have proved tactically inept against a smaller, worse-armed but motivated opponent. Russia has lost mountains of equipment and endured thousands of casualties, almost as many in two weeks as America has suffered in Iraq since it invaded in 2003.

“Mr. Putin has brought ruinous sanctions on his country.  The central bank does not have access to the hard currency it needs to support the banking system and stabilize the ruble.  Brands that stand for openness, including Ikea and Coca-Cola, have closed their doors.  Some goods are being rationed.  Western exporters are withholding vital components, leading to factory stoppages. Sanctions on energy – for now, limited – threaten to crimp the foreign exchange Russia needs to pay for its imports.

“And, as Stalin did, Mr. Putin is destroying the bourgeoisie, the great motor of Russia’s modernization.  Instead of being sent to the gulag, they are fleeing to cities like Istanbul, in Turkey, and Yerevan, in Armenia.  Those who choose to stay are being muzzled by restrictions on free speech and free association.  They will be battered by high inflation and economic dislocation.  In just two weeks, they have lost their country….

“Russia’s regions, stretched across 11 time zones, are already muttering about this being Moscow’s war.

“As the scale of Mr. Putin’s failure becomes clear, Russia will enter the most dangerous moment in this conflict. Factions in the regime will turn on each other in a spiral of blame.  Mr. Putin, fearful of a coup, will trust nobody and may have to fight for power.  He may also try to change the course of the war by terrifying his Ukrainian foes and driving off their Western backers with chemical weapons, or even a nuclear strike….

“As Russia sinks, the contrast with the president next door is glaring.  Mr. Putin is isolated and morally dead; Mr. Zelensky is a brave Everyman who has rallied his people and the world.  He is Mr. Putin’s antithesis – and perhaps his nemesis.  Think what Russia might become once freed from its 21st-century Stalin.”

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“It turns out the U.S. decision to deny Polish MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine is even worse than we wrote Thursday.  The White House is now confirming that the decision went all the way up to President Biden, who vetoed the jet delivery lest it provoke Vladimir Putin and risk escalating the war.

“The logic seems to be that sending lethal anti-aircraft and antitank weapons won’t provoke the Russian, but 28 fixed-wing aircraft would. That distinction is hard to parse, especially when the Pentagon is also saying that the Ukrainians don’t need the jets because their other weapons are more effective. So sending less lethal aircraft will lead to World War III, but not arms that are really deadly?

“The bigger problem is the message this fiasco sends to Mr. Putin about NATO. The essence of credible deterrence is making an adversary believe that taking certain actions will draw a response.  By so ostentatiously not sending the fighters, and saying the reason is fear of escalation, Mr. Biden is telling the Russian what he doesn’t have to worry about.  Instead of deterring Mr. Putin, Mr. Biden is letting the Russian deter the U.S.

“This is becoming a pattern with the Commander in Chief.  In Afghanistan he demanded a quick and dirty exit by a date certain lest he provoke the Taliban who had taken over the government.  The result was an American humiliation that may have influenced Mr. Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine.

“This month the Administration stopped the scheduled test of a U.S. nuclear missile after Mr. Putin issued a vague nuclear threat. The test had nothing to do with Ukraine, and Russia knew about it, but the Biden Pentagon stopped the test anyway. That’s another blow to the credibility of U.S. deterrence.

“Meanwhile, Mr. Putin is escalating his Ukraine assault in any case.  Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov admitted Thursday that the Russians deliberately targeted the maternity hospital in Mariupol.  Mr. Putin knows what NATO won’t do to stop him.”

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Biden Agenda

--The U.S. Senate on Thursday approved legislation providing $1.5 trillion to fund the federal government through Sept. 30 and to allocate $13.6 billion to aid Ukraine.  The 2,700-page bill passed in a bipartisan 68-31 vote, one day after the House approved the package (260-171…361-69 on the defense spending portion).

So a government shutdown was averted, there having been a midnight deadline Friday.

“We’re keeping our promise to support Ukraine as they fight for their lives against the evil Vladimir Putin,” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said.

The aid for Ukraine is designed to finance ammunition and other military supplies, as well as humanitarian support.

On Wednesday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told reporters that this Ukraine aid package likely would be followed by additional measures to help Kyiv battle Russia and rebuild from the destruction brought by Moscow’s attacks.

On Thursday, ahead of the vote, Republican senators called for the administration to send Ukraine the fighter jets President Zelensky had requested.  The Biden administration has argued that providing combat aircraft, even if they were being supplied by Poland, would dangerously escalate the conflict.

Republicans achieved a major victory in getting a $42 billion increase in defense spending as part of the legislative package to a total of $782 billion.

--Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“President Biden made the right decision Tuesday in banning Russian oil and natural gas imports. Yet at the same time he declared full-steam ahead on his green energy ‘transition’ that includes an assault on U.S. fossil fuels. The contradiction is maddening.

“Banning Russian energy imports is fine as far as it goes, which isn’t very.  The U.S. imports only 3% of its petroleum supply and less than 1% of coal from Russia.  About 70% of Russian oil currently can’t find buyers because of sanctions risk. That’s the main reason crude prices have shot up to $130 per barrel.

“Once uncertainty about the scope of sanctions clears up, Russia will probably find global buyers for its energy at a discount.  Imposing so-called secondary U.S. sanctions on institutions that finance Russia’s energy trade would be more effective.  But the White House won’t do that because it fears it could drive gasoline prices even higher.

“If that’s the worry, then here’s a better idea: Stand at the White House and declare that his Administration will support the development of U.S. oil and gas.  Rescind all regulations designed to curb production, development and consumption. Announce a moratorium on new ones.  Expedite permits, and encourage investment.  Our guess is the price of Brent crude would fall $20 a barrel in anticipation of higher production.

“Yet Mr. Biden is doing precisely the opposite.  On Tuesday he even blamed U.S. companies – not his policies – for not producing more.  There are 9,000 available unused drilling permits, he claimed, and only 10% of onshore oil production takes place on federal land. Talk about a misdirection play.

“First, companies have to obtain additional permits for rights of way to access leases and build pipelines to transport fuel. This has become harder under the Biden Administration.  Second, companies must build up a sufficient inventory of permits before they can contract rigs because of the regulatory difficulties of operating on federal land.

“It takes 140 days or so for the feds to approve a drilling permit versus two for the state of Texas.  The Administration has halted onshore lease sales.  Producers are developing leases more slowly since they don’t know when more will be available.  Offshore leases were snapped up at a November auction because companies expect it might be the last one.

“Interior’s five-year leasing program for the Gulf of Mexico expires in June.  Yet the Administration hasn’t promulgated a new plan. Nor did it appeal a liberal judge’s order in January revoking the November leases.  But the Administration has appealed another judge’s order requiring that it hold lease sales.

“Then there’s the not-so-small problem of financing.  Companies can’t explore and drill, or build pipelines, without capital.  Biden financial regulators allied with progressive investors are working to cut it off.  The Labor Department has proposed a rule that would require 401(k) managers to consider the climate impact of their investment holdings.

“The Securities and Exchange Commission is expected to issue a rule requiring companies and their financiers to disclose greenhouse gas emissions….

“Large energy producers are buying back stock and redirecting capital to renewables because they see the Administration’s handwriting on the wall.  Small independent producers are eager to take advantage of higher prices but can’t get loans.  Many relied on private equity during the last shale boom, but now these firms are cutting them off….

“Replacing Russia’s five million barrels of global crude exports with U.S. and Canadian oil and building pipelines to transport it would take time. But the transition to a fossil-free world will take decades and technological breakthroughs – and will leave the U.S. dependent on China, Russia and other countries for minerals like lithium and nickel.

“Mr. Biden bemoans today’s skyrocketing gas prices, yet he remains hostage to the green-energy donors whose policies guarantee higher prices.  The President is enabling Vladimir Putin’s energy leverage even as he claims the opposite.”

--The Biden administration on Monday proposed strict new limits on pollution from buses, delivery vans, tractor-trailers and other heavy trucks – the first time in more than 20 years that tailpipe standards have been tightened for the biggest polluters on the road.

The new draft rule from the Environmental Protection Agency would require heavy-duty trucks to reduce emissions of nitrogen dioxide by 90 percent by 2031.  Nitrogen dioxide is linked to lung cancer, heart disease and premature death.

The EPA also announced plans to slightly tighten truck emissions of carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas.

Public health experts welcomed the move.  “Cleaning up trucks is a critical step to achieving the president’s vision not only of environmental justice but also the cancer moonshot,” said Paul Billings of the American Lung Association.  “Diesel gas is a known carcinogen.”

I take issue with the term “cancer moonshot,” as every president the last 50 years has essentially used the same term.  That said, of course, thankfully, we have made tremendous strides in the field.

--The Senate passed legislation designed to put the U.S. Postal Service on stronger financial footing and avoid a government bailout, including by repealing a requirement that it prefund retiree health benefits.

The bill passed the Senate 79-19 Tuesday, after easily clearing the House last month.  The legislation is more than a decade in the making.

Among the many provisions, the bill would require postal workers to enroll in Medicare when they reach 65 years old – something that Congress said about a quarter of the agency’s workers don’t do.  That change would save the Postal Service about $22.6 billion over a 10-year period, the agency estimates.

And it will also permanently mandate six-day-a-week delivery!

Wall Street and the Economy

After last week’s plethora of data, we just had one key release this week and it was a biggie, consumer prices for February, up 0.8%, and 0.5% ex-food and energy.  For the year, the CPI was up 7.9%, 6.4% on core, both the highest levels since 1982.

Next week, we have the big Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting at which time the Fed will begin raising interest rates.  The markets will closely scrutinize the accompanying statement and Chair Jerome Powell’s comments at his press conference for clues on just how much the Fed might hike rates in ensuing meetings, the following two May 3-4 and June 14-15.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow barometer for first-quarter growth is at 0.5%.

Meanwhile, International Monetary Fund Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Thursday that the war in Ukraine and massive sanctions against Russia have triggered a contraction in global trade, sending food and energy prices higher, and forcing the IMF to lower its global growth forecast next month.

In January, the IMF projected global growth would reach 4.4% this year, a downgrade of 0.5 percentage point, citing risks linked to the pandemic, rising inflation and supply disruptions, as well as U.S. monetary tightening.

Now, Georgieva told reporters the sanctions had caused an abrupt contraction of the Russian economy and it faced a “deep recession” this year. She said a default by Russia on its debt was no longer seen as “improbable.”  The World Bank said this week that Russia and Belarus were squarely in “default territory.”

The IMF is due to release its updated World Economic Outlook in mid-April.

--Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“Inflation keeps rising, and working Americans are paying the price in falling real incomes. That’s the bad news from Thursday’s consumer-price index report for February, and the White House can’t blame Vladimir Putin for this one, though it’s trying.

“The Bureau of Labor Statistics said prices rose 0.8% in the month, the fastest rate in four months. That’s 7.9% over the last 12 months, and 8.4% over the last three months.  In other words, inflation is accelerating.

“The inflation surge was driven by rising costs for gasoline, food and shelter (imputed rents).  But the price increases were also broad-based, suggesting that the psychology of rising prices has set in with businesses and consumers.  The price of services (not counting energy services) rose 0.5% for the month. Remember when inflation was supposedly caused by supply-chain shortfalls for goods?

“Well, services aren’t goods.  Transportation costs rose 1.4%, and shelter jumped by 0.5%.  The latter are likely to keep rising because they usually trail housing costs (which aren’t directly part of the consumer-price index).

“Used-vehicle prices, which some economists said a year ago explained nearly all of the inflation, were down in February but overall inflation still rose fast because inflation expectations are now embedded across the economy. The latest NFIB survey found that 68% of small business owners had raised their average prices in the last three months, a 48-year high.

“All of this is bad news for workers, despite recent gains in nominal wages.  A separate Labor report on Thursday found that real average-hourly earnings fell 0.8% for the month. Real wages have fallen in nine of the last 12 months, including 2.6% since February 2021.

“That wallops low-income workers in particular because they pay a larger share of their wages for the household basics of food and energy, which are both rising fast.  No wonder Americans are sour about the economy despite healthy GDP growth.

“The White House was locked and loaded for the bad news on Thursday and blamed, no surprise, Mr. Putin.  ‘Today’s inflation report is a reminder that Americans’ budgets are being stretched by price increases and families are starting to feel the impacts of Putin’s price hike,’ President Biden said in a statement.  ‘Putin’s price hike’ quickly became a Democratic and media meme.

“It won’t wash.  Russia’s invasion has certainly contributed to rising oil and gasoline prices in recent weeks and, as villains go, he’s top of our list.  But inflation had already hit 7.5% on an annual basis in January before Russia invaded Ukraine. The prices on oil and other commodities have been on an inflation-inspired tear for months.  Gasoline prices were up 6.6% in February, but they’re up 38% over 12 months.

“Mr. Biden can blame Mr. Putin for many things, but not U.S. inflation. The root cause is homegrown: Two years of historically easy monetary policy, and explosive federal spending that fed economic demand even though the economy had long ago emerged from the pandemic recession.

“The Ukraine invasion will feed inflation in March and coming months if oil prices keep rising.  But getting inflation back under control requires a U.S. policy change: Tighten monetary policy, and control federal spending.”

---

We did have some decent news on the budget deficit front, with the deficit for February at $216.6 billion, down 30% from a year ago as receipts reached $290 billion, up 17% from February 2021, while outlays in February this year totaled $506 billion, down 9% as a result of lower unemployment compensation and other Covid-19 aid benefits.

For the first five months of the fiscal year, the deficit was $476 billion, down 55% from the year-earlier gap of $1.047 trillion, which was also a record for the period.

Europe and Asia

Eurozone bond yields soared on Thursday after the European Central Bank said it plans to end bond buying in the third quarter, as surging inflation, fueled by soaring commodity prices and an increasingly tight labor market, outweighs the risks to economic growth from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Bond yields in Italy, a key beneficiary of ECB bond buying stimulus, surged over 20 basis points and German 10-year yields hit three-week highs – more than unwinding declines since the Feb. 24 invasion.

As risk-off sentiment gripped world markets, the euro and stocks weakened, failing to benefit from the surprisingly hawkish tone from the ECB.

The ECB said bond purchases under the conventional Asset Purchase Program would be smaller than previously planned and would end in the third quarter depending on economic data.  It also raised its inflation projections while cutting its growth outlook.

So while the ECB kept interest rates unchanged and said adjustments in rates will take “some time” after bond purchases end and would be “gradual,” the money markets moved to price in 45 basis points of hikes by December, with a first hike in July.

The ECB raised its inflation outlook for this year to 5.1%, up from 3.2%, amid surging energy costs.  This forecast was expected to cool to 2.1% in 2023, before dipping to 1.9% in 2024.

Separately, Eurostat released final GDP figures for the fourth quarter in the eurozone, up 0.3% vs. the prior quarter, and 4.6% from a year ago.

Germany 1.8% (Q4 2021 vs. Q4 2020); France 5.4%; Italy 6.2%; Spain 5.2%; Netherlands 6.0%.

Brexit: The UK dramatically stepped up its sanctions against Russian oligarchs, freezing the assets of Chelsea Football Club owner Roman Abramovich and six others, in a blow to the British capital’s near 50-year run as the plutocrat’s playground of choice, Londongrad.

The latest sanctions followed efforts by Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government to hit Putin’s regime by banning all Russian aircraft from landing and overflying Britain, while announcing it would gradually phase out Russian oil, and adding to existing measures that include blocking Russian ships from UK ports and sanctions on banks.

Turning to Asia…China set its economic growth target for the year at around 5.5%, the lowest level in more than a quarter-century of economic planning, reflecting heightened domestic and global uncertainties in a key political year for President Xi Jinping.

The target was announced by Premier Li Keqiang as part of the country’s annual legislative session (far more on this below), and it marks a step down from the modest goal of 6.0% it set for 2021, though growth then came in at 8.1%.

But many experts believe 5.5% is a stretch, when you weigh the rising geopolitical uncertainty, government-engineered slowdown in the property and technology sectors, and sluggish domestic consumption.

Meanwhile, China’s producer price inflation for February came in at 8.8%, year-over-year, which was actually the slowest pace in eight months.  Consumer prices rose just 0.9% Y/Y.

China combines many of its January and February numbers due to the Lunar New Year holiday, which is held on different dates each year, so January-February exports rose 16.3%, year-over-year, with exports to the U.S. up 13.8%, while imports rose 15.5% Y/Y.

Exports are expected to slow over the coming months following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

In Japan, the final figure on fourth-quarter GDP was 1.1%, quarter-over-quarter, and 4.6% annualized, which was way down from the preliminary reading of 5.4%.  Private consumption rose 2.4% Q/Q.

But with Covid restrictions in place for much of the first quarter, let alone the impact of the war, GDP is forecast to rise at only a 0.4% pace, annualized.

Separately, Japan’s household consumption figure for January was a strong 6.9% year-over-year, but this is deceiving as it was compared with Jan. 2021 and a raging Covid situation back then.

Lastly, and rather worrisome, February producer prices in Japan rose 9.3%, Y/Y, the highest figure since 1985.

Street Bytes

--Without a single compelling reason for stocks to go up this week, they went down, again, fifth week in a row for the Dow Jones, 4 of 5 for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

The Dow lost 2.0% to close at 32944, the S&P fell 2.9% and Nasdaq 3.5%.  The volatility, especially intraday, has been rather amazing.  Monday, the S&P lost 3.0%, its worst day since Oct. 2020, and on Wednesday it gained 2.6%, its best since June 2020.

I only told you once, about three weeks ago, that I had built a ‘short’ position in the overall market in late December and early January, as Russia built up its forces on the Ukrainian border, and I closed that out on Monday.  I have to admit I was uncomfortable making money off the misery of others, but I had an edge, I felt, that I could exploit.

--U.S. Treasury Yields

6-mo. 0.72%  2-yr. 1.75%  10-yr. 1.99%  30-yr. 2.35%

It’s been an incredible two-week round trip in yields, from inflation fears, to flight to safety, back to inflation fears (and future central bank action to address same)…and this is both in the U.S. and Europe.

U.S. 10-yr. …1.96% (2/25)…1.74% (3/4)…1.99% (3/11)
German 10-yr. …0.23% (2/25)… -0.08% (3/4)…0.24% (3/11)
Italian 10-yr. …1.83% (2/25)…1.53% (3/4)…1.85% (3/11)

--President Biden on Tuesday imposed an immediate ban on Russian oil, but major European nations did not join in, largely because those nations are more dependent on Russian oil (40% vs. 3% in the U.S.).  The UK said it will phase out Russian imports of oil and oil products by the end of 2022, in order to give businesses time to ensure a smooth transition, business minister Kwasi Kwarteng said Tuesday. 

The market had rallied over 30%, with global benchmark Brent hitting a 2008 high at $139 a barrel, since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24.  West Texas Intermediate hit $129 on Tuesday, also its highest since 2008.

But oil then slid over 7% on Wednesday after reports that the United Arab Emirates will call on fellow OPEC members to boost production, potentially easing some of the supply concerns caused by sanctions on Russia.

Oil was already pulling back earlier in the session from a rally to peaks not seen in more than a decade, as some investors’ fears over a disruption in Russian supplies eased and the International Energy Agency said oil reserves could be tapped further, after the agency’s decision last week to release 60 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves as “an initial response.”

[Russia is the world’s top exporter of crude and oil products combined, at around 7 million barrels per day, or 7% of global supply.]

One potential source of additional crude is Iran; but talks to resurrect the Iranian nuclear accord hit a roadblock, as described below.

Thursday, oil slid further, with Brent down to $110, and WTI at $106.  Addressing a government meeting, Putin said Russia would continue to meet its contractual obligations on energy supplies, but there remains tremendous uncertainty, including over payment.  And the UAE backed off its statements from Wednesday and said it is committed to existing agreements, with OPEC to boost output by only 400,000 barrels per day each month…nothing more.

Well, after the end of an incredibly volatile week, Brent crude finished at $112.12, with West Texas Intermediate at $109.09, both down substantially from last Friday’s close, and even more so from the highs on Tuesday.

But $100 oil is…$100 oil, and in the case of the United States, $4.00+ at the pump, which hurts.

AAA’s average for a gallon of regular nationwide today was $4.33, up 50 cents in one week, and a $1.50 in one year.

--Last week I mentioned a UN Food and Agriculture Organization figure on world food inflation, which had hit a record in February.  The figure the FAO gave at the time, 24.1%, was incorrect, they later realized. The correct number is 20.7%, still a record, led by a surge in vegetable oils and dairy products.

Just wanted to correct the record from my end. 

--The war in Ukraine will deliver a shock to the global food supply and cost of same, the boss of one of the world’s biggest fertilizer companies has said.

Yara International, which operates in more than 60 countries, buys considerable amounts of essential raw materials from Russia.

Fertilizer prices were already high due to soaring wholesale gas prices.

Yara’s boss, Svein Tore Holsether, has warned the situation could get even tougher.

“Things are changing by the hour,” he told the BBC.

“We were already in a difficult situation before the war…and now it’s additional disruption to the supply chains and we’re getting close to the most important part of this season for the Northern hemisphere, where a lot of fertilizer needs to move on and that will quite likely be impacted.”

Aside from being a big producer of wheat and oil, Russia also produces enormous amounts of nutrients, like potash and phosphate – key ingredients in fertilizers, which enable plants and crops to grow.

“Half the world’s population gets food as a result of fertilizers…and if that’s removed from the field for some crops, [the yield] will drop by 50%,” Mr. Holsether said.

“For me, it’s not whether we are moving into a global food crisis – it’s how large the crisis will be.”

--Editorial / The Economist

“Today, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is unleashing the biggest commodity shock since 1973, and one of the worst disruptions to wheat supplies since the first world war.  Although commodity exchanges are already in chaos, ordinary folks have yet to feel the full effects of rising petrol bills, empty stomachs and political instability.  But make no mistake, those things are coming – and dramatically so if sanctions on Russia tighten further, and if Vladimir Putin retaliates….

“The turmoil unfolding in energy, metals and food markets is broad and savage… European gas prices have almost trebled amid panic that pipelines from the east will be blown up or starved of supply. The price of nickel, used in all electric cars among other things, has spiraled so high that trading in London has been halted and Chinese speculators are nursing multi-billion-dollar losses.

“Such are the consequences of Mr. Putin’s decision to drive his tanks across the breadbasket of Europe, and the subsequent isolation of Russia, one of the world’s biggest commodities exporters.  Western sanctions on Russian banks have made lenders, insurers and shipping firms wary of striking deals to carry Russian cargoes, leaving growing piles of unsold industrial metals and an armada of vessels full of unwanted Urals crude.  Stigma and danger have caused others to stay away… The Black Sea is a no-go zone for commercial shipping because some vessels have been hit by missiles and Russia is menacing Ukrainian ports.  Not many seeds will be planted in Ukraine’s blood-soaked fields this spring….

“The effects of this commodity calamity could be brutal. If you look narrowly at the economy, the world is far less energy-intensive per unit of GDP than in the 1970s. Nonetheless, global inflation, already at 7%, may rise by another two to three percentages points, to a level last seen for a sustained period in the early 1990s, when Mr. Putin was doing Mafia deals in St. Petersburg and globalization had yet to flourish.  Growth may slow as firms’ confidence is knocked and interest rates rise….

“Such a panorama of suffering and instability is worrying in its own right. But it also threatens to undermine the credibility of the Western response to Russia’s decision to start what may become the largest war in Europe since 1945.  The greater the global pain, Mr. Putin may judge, the harder it will be for the West to sustain the sanctions: all he has to do is wait it out….

“Whatever the privations of rich countries, poorer ones are in worse trouble.  So the West must strengthen the global financial safety-net….

“A world facing a physical shortage of raw materials dug up from the ground seems like a throwback to an earlier age. Yet that is exactly the predicament that lies ahead.  After decades of drift, the West has shown resolve and cohesion by confronting Mr. Putin’s aggression.  Now it must match that by showing leadership in the teeth of the economic storm.”

--U.S. officials remain highly concerned the war in Ukraine could impact American cyber networks as the war enters its third week and Vladimir Putin becomes more isolated.

The U.S. Cybersecurity & Infrastructure Security Agency said in a statement: “While there are not any specific, credible, cyber threats to the U.S., we encourage all organizations – regardless of size – to take steps now to improve their cybersecurity and safeguard their critical assets.”

Separately, U.S. intelligence officials told Congress in its annual threat assessment Tuesday that Russia is using cyber operations to attack those it sees working to undermine its interests or threaten the Russian government’s stability.

“Russia views cyber disruptions as a foreign policy lever to shape other countries’ decisions, as well as a deterrence and military tool,” said the annual threat report, which noted that Russia’s focus was particularly on targeting critical infrastructure upon which the United States depends.

The most likely short-term cyber impact would be spillover of any cyberattack by Russia against Ukraine, for now, as cyber networks are invariably connected and attacks can easily spread to other nations.

But I still recommend keeping the gas tank reasonably filled (as much as that hurts these days) and having ample cash in case the banks are hit.  Just common sense.

For those wondering why Russia hasn’t done more in terms of its cyber operations against Ukraine, one, the Russian military is using the network for its own operations no doubt (social media reports are useful to the Russkies, as well as informing the world), but, two, because so many in the Russian government itself were unaware of Putin’s plans to invade until it was imminent, it’s possible Russian cyber teams were caught unprepared and are still building out these operations.

Democratic Sen. Mark Warner of Virginia, who co-chairs the Senate Cybersecurity Caucus, said the United States should not presume that because Russia has been “inept with their military, doesn’t mean they’re inept in cyber” and are not a significant threat.

Warner said at some point, Russia may “simply say to all their ransomware criminals, ‘have at it,’ because there’s at least some level of deniability there.”

--The London Metal Exchange suspended trading in its nickel market after an unprecedented price spike left brokers struggling to pay margin calls against unprofitable short positions, in a massive squeeze that has embroiled the largest nickel producer as well as a major Chinese bank.

Nickel, used in stainless steel and electric-vehicle batteries, surged as much as 250% in two days to trade briefly above $100,000 a ton early Tuesday.  The frenzied move – the largest-ever on the LME – came as investors and industrial users who had sold the metal scrambled to buy the contracts back after prices initially rallied on concerns about supplies from Russia.

A Chinese tycoon who built a massive short position in the nickel market is facing billions of dollars in mark-to-market losses as a result of the surge in prices.

Xiang Guangda – who controls the world’s largest nickel producer, Tsingshan Holding Group Co., and is known as “Big Shot” in Chinese commodity circles – closed out part of his company’s short position as he decided on whether to exit the market entirely.

The company, supposedly sitting on $8 billion in losses, then said on Wednesday that it had secured enough metal to settle all its loss-making positions, according to a state-run media outlet.

--Gold jumped to $2,062 on Tuesday, highest since Aug. 2020.

--McDonald’s made a big announcement on Tuesday, saying it would temporarily close 850 restaurants in Russia.  It’s been 32 years since the Golden Arches opened its first restaurant there in 1990, when the country was still under Soviet control, and it was a big moment.  I know from my own trips there that it is hugely popular, and it also represents around 9% of global sales (both Russia and Ukraine, where it temporarily closed 108 stores).

But in the announcement, Chris Kempczinski, CEO, said, “Our values mean we cannot ignore the needless human suffering unfolding in Ukraine.”

The company said it will continue paying its 62,000 employees in Russia, “who have poured their heart and soul into our McDonald’s brand.”

Kempczinski said it is impossible to know when the company will be able to reopen its stores.

“The situation is extraordinarily challenging for a global brand like ours, and there are many considerations,” he said in a letter to employees.

McDonald’s, unlike other big fast food brands in Russia that are owned by franchisees – including KFC, Pizza Hut, Starbucks and Burger King – owns 84% of its Russian locations.

Yum Brands, the parent company of KFC and Pizza Hut, said Monday that it is donating all of its profits from its 1,050 restaurants in Russia to humanitarian efforts, and it has suspended new restaurant development in the country.  Starbucks said it is also donating profits from its 130 Russian stores to humanitarian efforts.

PepsiCo Inc. said it would suspend soft drink sales in Russia but would continue to sell daily essentials such as milk and baby formula.  Coca-Cola, which has 10 bottling plants in Russia (to PepsiCo’s two), said it was suspending all operations.

Earlier, Visa, Mastercard and American Express Co., were among those pulling out, after Big Oil made its initial moves to exit Russian operations.

Cards issued by Russian banks will no longer be supported by their networks.  Cards issued abroad will no longer work at businesses or ATMs in Russia.

--TSA checkpoint travel numbers vs. 2019….

3/10…87 percent of 2019 levels
3/9…84
3/8…77
3/7…85
3/6…88
3/5…85
3/4…84
3/3…85

[Suddenly rather consistent figures.]

--Crypto stocks rose sharply on Wednesday (only to crater the rest of the week) after President Biden signed an executive order outlining the U.S. government’s approach to addressing the risks and benefits of digital assets.

The order “lays out a national policy for digital assets across six key priorities: consumer and investor protection; financial stability; illicit finance; U.S. leadership in the global financial system and economic competitiveness; financial inclusion; and responsible innovation,” the White House said in a statement.

Biden’s order will require the Treasury Department, the Commerce Department and other key agencies to prepare reports on “the future of money” and the role cryptocurrencies will play.  Wide-ranging oversight of the cryptocurrency market, which surged past $3 trillion in November, is essential to ensure U.S. national security, financial stability and U.S. competitiveness, and stave off the growing threat of cyber crime, administration officials said.

Analysts viewed the long-awaited executive order as a stark acknowledgement of the growing importance of cryptocurrencies and their potential consequences for the U.S. and global financial systems.

The executive order is part of an effort to promote responsible innovation but mitigates the risk to consumers, investors and businesses, Brian Deese, director of the National Economic Council, and Jake Sullivan, White House national security adviser, said in a statement.

Nine countries have launched central bank digital currencies, and 16 others – including China – have begun development of such digital assets, according to the Atlantic Council, leading some in Washington to worry that the dollar could lose some of its dominance to China.

--Disney CEO Bob Chapek said that he will meet with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to discuss the state’s controversial “Don’t Say Gay” bill after Disney took heat for remaining silent on the issue.

The CEO said the company will donate $5 million to organizations, including the Human Rights Campaign, which work to protect LGTBQ+ rights.

During Disney’s annual shareholder meeting Wednesday, the CEO said that while Disney had been “opposed to the bill from the outset,” its original under-the-radar approach to fighting it “didn’t get the job done.”

“While we’ve been strong supporters of the community for decades, I know that many are upset that we did not speak out against the bill,” Chapek said.  “Now, we were opposed to the bill from the outset, but we chose not to take a public position because we thought we could be more effective working behind the scenes.”

The CEO said that “despite weeks of efforts,” Disney was “ultimately unsuccessful” challenging the bill, which would ban Florida teachers from discussing LGBTQ topics like sexual orientation or gender identity with students until after third grade.

Chapek said he expressed his concerns to DeSantis on Wednesday morning that if the bill becomes law that it “could be used to unfairly target” LGBTQ kids and families.

Disney has over 70,000 employees in Florida.

--Tesla sold 56,515 China-made vehicles in February, up from 18,318 a year ago, according to the China Passenger Car Association.  The company sold 59,845 China-made vehicles in January.  A majority of the cars are exported (33,315 in February).

--The Canadian economy gained 336,600 jobs in February, more than expected, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 5.5% from 6.5% in January, Statistics Canada data showed on Friday.  As in the case of the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of Canada is expected to raise interest rates soon.

--Dick’s Sporting Goods, the largest U.S.-based full-line sporting goods retailer, reported solid sales and earnings results for the fourth quarter and full year ended Jan. 29, 2022.

“Our exceptionally strong 2021 reflects another positive step forward in our multi-year transformational journey,” said Ed Stack, Executive Chairman.  “Our strategies are driving sustainable sales and profitability growth, and we have set our business on a new trajectory.  I’d like to thank all our teammates for their hard work and unwavering dedication to our business.”

Roarrrr!

Net sales for the fourth quarter of 2021 were $3.35 billion, an increase of 7.3% compared to a year earlier, and a 28.5% increase compared to the fourth quarter of 2019 (pre-pandemic).  Consolidated same-store sales in the quarter increased 5.9%.  The current quarter same-store sales increase included a 14% increase in brick-and-mortar stores and an 11% decrease in eCommerce sales, which followed a 57% increase in eCommerce sales in the fourth quarter of 2020.

Net sales for fiscal 2021 were $12.209 billion, a 40.5% increase compared to fiscal 2019.

Driven by the strong sales and margin expansion, the company reported net income for the fourth quarter of $346.1 million, or $3.16 per diluted share, an increase of 43% compared to the fourth quarter of 2020 and an increase of 290% compared to the fourth quarter of 2019.

--Campbell Soup Company posted fiscal Q2 adjusted earnings that beat consensus but were down from a year earlier, with net sales of $2.21 billion for the quarter ended Jan. 30, down from $2.28bn a year ago, and slightly above forecasts.

Sales for the fiscal year are still projected to decline 2% to 0% from a year earlier.

Campbell said it is grappling with supply chain constraints, while demand for its products eased from pandemic highs. 

The pandemic ripped through supply chains of companies across the packaged food industry and that has led to higher costs, delayed deliveries and caused a shortage of labor in the United States.  For food companies like Campbell, demand has waned from the peak seen during the pandemic, when consumers stockpiled on frozen meals, snacks and soups at home.  Campbell’s organic sales (ex-acquisitions) were down 2% in the quarter.  Higher supply expenses caused Campbell’s quarterly gross margin to decline to 30.3% from 34.4% last year.

--Shares in Bed Bath & Beyond surged as much as 86% Monday morning after Ryan Cohen, the billionaire co-founder of online pet-products retailer Chewy and chairman of GameStop, disclosed a 9.8% stake in BBBY through his investment firm.  Cohen, in a letter addressed to the retailer’s board, outlined steps the company might take, including spinning off the faster-growing Buy Buy Baby business and evaluating a sale to a private-equity buyer.

So the shares went from last Friday’s close of $16.18 to $30, before sliding the rest of the week, still a strong gain to $20, as I looked at my 20% coupon and thought, ‘What do I need?’  [Aside from world peace and a baseball season…and what do you know?  Regarding the latter we are getting one.]

I’ve been a bit miffed at management’s recent strategy of de-cluttering the stores, because I liked the clutter and I miss finding things like a New York Jets bottle opener.

--Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Oceania Cruises said Monday its 2024 “Around the World in 180 Days” voyage sold out within 30 minutes of opening for sale on March 2.

Almost half of the total bookings came from first-time guests and 42% of the guests sailing on the current 2022 world cruise rebooked for the 2024 voyage.

--Warner Bros.’ “The Batman” grossed $128.5 million in its opening weekend, the studio said, the best opening weekend for a film since Sony Pictures’ “Spider-Man: No Way Home” earned $260.1 million in its December debut, according to box office tracker Comscore.

Including international receipts, “The Batman” grossed a total of $248.5 million in its opening weekend.  The film comes out in Japan next week and in China on March 18th.

The haul is an encouraging sign for studios, given the timing of its release in between holiday season, lingering fears over Omicron, the film’s dark subject matter and its nearly three-hour run time.

WarnerMedia, which owns both the studio and streaming service HBOMax, released its entire slate of films simultaneously in theaters and online last year provoking outrage among directors and actors, who said that the strategy cheated them out of bonuses related to how well the films performed at the box office.

This year, WarnerMedia says it is pivoting to a 45-day theatrical window, meaning that “The Batman” will be seen only in theaters until mid-April, when it is expected to begin streaming on HBOMax.

--Finally, we note the passing of Charles Entenmann, who propelled his family’s New York bakery into a national brand.  He died in Florida recently at the age of 92.

Entenmann, his brothers and mother expanded the Bay Shore business across the region and eventually the country, following the 1951 death of his father William Entenmann, a German immigrant who opened the bakery in Brooklyn in 1898, according to its website.

His family sold its cakes-and-cookies enterprise for $233 million in 1978, and it still operates today under new ownership.

Entenmann was a Korean War veteran and a big supporter of local causes.

I imagine there are very Americans alive today who didn’t consume a fair amount of Entenmann’s Danish over the years.  I was also partial to their chocolate donuts.

And to totally digress, you know what is a great product?  Drake’s Funny Bones…frozen.

The Pandemic

--It’s been two years since the WHO officially labeled the coronavirus a global pandemic.  I’ll have a personal look back next time…when we realized around here, in New Jersey, that we were in deep shit.

--Travelers in the U.S. will have to continue wearing masks on airplanes, buses and other forms of transit through April 18, the CDC and Transportation Security Administration said Thursday, a move industry officials expected.

The directive requiring masks was set to expire after March 18.  But the extension comes as all 50 states have dropped indoor mask mandates or announced plans to do so, and the CDC has eased its masking guidance for communities.

Separately, the CDC said late on Thursday that some 98% of the U.S. population live in locations where Covid-19 levels are low enough that people do not need to wear masks indoors.

--China is suspending in-person classes for schools in Shanghai and locked down a city in the country’s northeast, as the Omicron variant drives Covid cases to a level only seen at the peak of the outbreak in Wuhan.  China reported 1,100 domestic infections on Friday, a tally that has ballooned from just over 300 cases a day in less than a week.  The surge presents a significant challenge to the country’s ongoing, zero-tolerance approach to the virus.

--But take a look at Hong Kong’s charts on worldometers.info.  It reported 29,000 new coronavirus infections on Friday, and whereas in the past, one or two deaths was deemed too many, now the daily death toll is in the hundreds and I’ve told you for basically the past two years of how quickly the virus can spread in a jam-packed place like Hong Kong, which also has zero capacity in its hospital system to handle such a surge.  A few weeks ago, patients were being treated outside, outdoors, due to a lack of beds in the facilities.  I can’t imagine the situation now.

--Even a mild case of Covid-19 can damage the brain and adle thinking, scientists found in a study that highlights the illness’ alarming impact on mental function.

According to a study published in the journal Nature on Monday, researchers identified Covid-associated brain damage months after infection, including the region linked to smell, and shrinkage in size equivalent to as much as a decade of normal aging.  Yikes!

The findings represent striking evidence of the virus’ impact on the central nervous system.  More research will be required to understand whether the evidence from the University of Oxford means Covid-19 will exacerbate the global burden of dementia and other neurodegenerative conditions.

The SARS-CoV-2 virus is widely considered a respiratory pathogen that attacks the lungs.  But taking a narrow view of it misses myriad neurologic complications – including confusion, stroke, and neuromuscular disorders – that manifest during the acute phase of the illness.  Other effects like impaired concentration, headache, depression, and even psychosis may persist for months as part of a constellation of symptoms termed long Covid.

--Florida Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo said the state would recommend against vaccinating healthy children for Covid-19, a position that directly contradicts guidance from the CDC.

Ladapo said the recommendation would be the first of its kind in the nation.  The CDC recommends that everyone age 5 and older get vaccinated against Covid, with regulators granting emergency authorization to a vaccine for children age 5 to 11 made by Pfizer and partner BioNTech SE.

“We’re kind of scraping at the bottom of the barrel, particularly with healthy kids, in terms of actually being able to quantify with any accuracy and any confidence the even potential of benefit,” Ladapo said Monday during a panel discussion hosted by Gov. Ron DeSantis, “Mr. Take That F’N Mask Off!”

DeSantis, in hosting the panel, said it was aimed at “ending Covid theater once and for all.”

All I can say, speaking for myself, is that ‘Covid theater’ kept me safe, at least for now.

--While Ladapo and DeSantis were holding their forum, an expert group convened by the World Health Organization said that it “strongly supports urgent and broad access” to booster doses of Covid-19 vaccines amid the global spread of Omicron, capping a reversal of the UN agency’s repeated insistence last year that boosters weren’t necessary for healthy people and contributed to vaccine inequity.

--Japanese scientists reported this week that the Omicron strain of Covid-19 is at least 40% more lethal than seasonal flu, underscoring the potential danger of lifting pandemic curbs too quickly and underestimating the virus’ ongoing health risks.

But this is significantly lower than the 4.25% case fatality rate from earlier in the outbreak, the scientists said.  Seasonal flu is more like 0.006% to 0.09%.

Covid-19 death tolls, as of early tonight….

World…6,057,242
USA…993,043
Brazil…654,612
India…515,833
Russia…359,585
Mexico…320,607
Peru…211,364
UK…162,738
Italy…156,649
Indonesia…151,703
France…140,029
Colombia…139,255
Iran…138,711
Argentina…127,051
Germany…125,911
Poland…113,307
Ukraine…106,985
Spain…101,135

Canada…36,855

[Source: worldometers.info]

U.S. daily death tolls…Mon. 508; Tues. 1,405; Wed. 1,421; Thurs. 1,434; Fri. 1,022.

Foreign Affairs

Iran: A revived 2015 nuclear agreement between Tehran and the P5+1 (U.S., France, UK, Germany, Russia and China) was to have been reached last weekend, but at week’s end, Iran and the United States were at loggerheads after Tehran suggested there were new obstacles and Washington said hard issues remained.

The differences emerged just as Western powers were already grappling with last-minute Russian demands that threatened to torpedo otherwise largely completed talks.  A week ago preparations were being made in Vienna for the conclusion of an agreement bringing Iran back into compliance with the deal’s restrictions on its rapidly advancing nuclear activities and bringing the United States back into the accord it left in 2018 by re-imposing sanctions on Tehran.

Then last Saturday, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov unexpectedly demanded sweeping guarantees that Russian trade with Iran would not be affected by sanctions imposed on Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine – a demand Western powers say is unacceptable and Washington has insisted it will not entertain.

Russia’s demand initially angered Tehran and appeared to help it and Washington move towards agreement on the few remaining thorny issues, diplomats said, but a sudden volley of public comments by Iranian officials, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on Thursday suggested the wind had shifted.

“U.S. approach to Iran’s principled demands, coupled with its unreasonable offers and unjustified pressure to hastily reach an agreement, show that U.S. isn’t interested in a strong deal that would satisfy both parties,” Khamenei’s top security official Ali Shamkhani said in English on Twitter on Thursday morning.  “Absent U.S. political decisions, the talks get knottier by the hour,” he said.

But Shamkhani did not specify what the demands were and that there were any at all contradicted what four Western officials had said – that a final draft text had been agreed to which only needed minor adjustments with the exception of the open question about Russia’s sweeping demand for guarantees.

The United States then reiterated that it had no intention of accommodating Russia’s last-minute demands, which it has said have nothing to do with the Iran talks and added that a small number of outstanding and difficult issues were still yet to be resolved for a deal to be reached.

State Department spokesperson Ned Price said yesterday: “We remain close to a possible deal.  It’s really down to a very small number of outstanding issues. But the reason these particular issues are outstanding is because they are among the most difficult ones.”

One of the stumbling blocks is the extent to which sanctions on Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards would be rolled back.

Iran has also said it wants guarantees that no future U.S. president will again abandon a nuclear deal.  Underscoring Iranian concerns, former Vice President Mike Pence said on Wednesday that should Washington agree to a new accord and were the Republicans to take power again, they would “rip up any new Iran Nuclear Deal on day one.”

European negotiators from France, Britain and Germany have temporarily left the talks as they believed they had gone as far as they could and it was now up to the United States and Iran to agree on outstanding issues.

As a French Foreign Ministry spokeswoman told reporters on Thursday, “We are very close to an agreement, but the window of opportunity is closing.”

Late today, Russia promised it would respond in a few days over the question of the guarantees it has asked for, according to a senior EU official.

For weeks, the West has warned that time is running out because Iran’s nuclear progress will soon have the original deal’s restrictions moot.

I was totally against pulling out of the 2015 accord and now we shouldn’t be surprised if in the next 4-6 weeks, should there be no agreement, that Iran will test a nuclear weapon.  And then what would Israel do?

China: The National People’s Congress (NPC) held its annual “two sessions” meeting of leaders, where various goals, and positions for the year, for the economy and otherwise, are laid out.  This is a key forum to take the political temperature before the Communist Party’s national congress this autumn, when the ruling party will reshuffle its leadership lineup and President Xi Jinping is expected to start his third term.

Ukraine loomed large over the proceedings with the wider world wanting to know more about China’s position.  While the government work report did not mention the war, the foreign minister faced repeated questions about the conflict on Monday and then Premier Li Keqiang, who more or less runs this show, weighed in.

As noted above, the economic goal was set, a 5.5 percent GDP growth target.

Li, in announcing the defense budget will increase 7.1 percent to $237 billion, called for greater combat readiness from the military.

He said the People’s Liberation Army needs to “carry out military struggles in a resolute and flexible manner” to defend the country’s sovereignty, security and development interests.

Li said “the [Communist] Party will uphold the general policy for resolving the Taiwan question in the new era” – a phrase introduced by President Xi in a pivotal “historical resolution” last November.

“All of us, Chinese on both sides of the Taiwan Strait, should come together to advance the great and glorious cause of China’s rejuvenation,” Li said.

But Li sidestepped a question at the conclusion of the confab about whether China will support Russia no matter what.

He did say that China respects the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries, as well as the principles of the UN Charter and the “legitimate security concerns” of all countries.

Li added that the situation in Ukraine is “grave,” and China is “deeply concerned.”  He said China wants to see peace return to the region.

In his annual press conference, Foreign Minister Wang Yi said of Taiwan that the issue is fundamentally different from the Ukraine situation as it is a “purely domestic affair” rather than between two countries.

Speaking to reporters, Wang Yi said it was a “blatant double standard if some respect the sovereignty of Ukraine but repeatedly harm China’s sovereignty over Taiwan.”

He said “certain parties” in the U.S. were pushing Taiwan towards danger and it would have unbearable consequences for the United States.  Their purpose was to use Taiwan to contain China’s rise, he added.

Wang also said tensions across the Taiwan Strait were the result of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party’s failure to recognize the “one-China principle.”

The foreign minister also hit out at the U.S. over what he called a bid to establish NATO in the Asia-Pacific, which he said went against regional arrangements.

Wang said the U.S. was “playing its geopolitical game” with exclusive clubs like the Quad and Five Eyes and its Indo-Pacific strategy.

“This is just creating trouble for regional stability,” he said.

Wang also accused Washington of failing to live up to its promise of not seeking confrontation with Beijing and supporting Taiwan independence.

“The promises made by the U.S. are still up in the air and not implemented,” he said.  “The U.S. is still adopting a zero-sum mindset against China, and provoking China on core issues,” he said, adding it was not “responsible.”

Wang said ties between China and Russia would not change no matter the challenges facing the international community.

“Relations between China and Russia will not be influenced by any third party,” Wang said, adding that the nations “oppose cold war and ideological confrontation.”

Separately, in its annual threat assessment by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, the U.S. concludes that China is developing one of the greatest nuclear forces in history, while Russia will exploit every opportunity to undermine the U.S. and its allies.

North Korea:  I’ve been writing that it was just a matter of time before North Korea conducted its first test of a long-range ballistic missile since 2017 and now we’re learning that Pyongyang, in its latest tests over the past two months, used what would be its largest ever intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) system in two secretive launches, likely paving the way for a resumption of long-range tests, both U.S. and South Korean officials concluded this week.

The escalation in tensions comes as South Korea on Wednesday elected a new conservative president.

Yoon Suk-yeol has said preemptive strikes may be needed to counter any imminent attack by the North and has vowed to buy American THAAD missile interceptors, while remaining open to restarting stalled denuclearization talks.

“We will build a powerful military force that can assuredly deter any provocation to protect the safety and property of our citizens, and safeguard the territorial integrity and sovereignty of our nation,” Yoon said at his first press conference after he narrowly defeated his rival, the liberal candidate Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party.

[The Economist called this week’s presidential election the “ugliest” in 35 years of democracy.  Voters were offered a choice between “a gaffe-prone former chief prosecutor with little political experience,” Yoon, and “a populist former governor,” Lee.  Both men are mired in scandal.  Mud was slung in every direction.]

While running on the ticket of the conservative People Power Party, Yoon has criticized the outgoing liberal president Moon Jae-in’s policy toward the North as too “indulgent,” which he said only emboldened the Stalinist state to build up nuclear weapons and missiles.

He has called for close-knit cooperation with the United States and other allies to impose strict sanctions against the North with a view to coercing it to abandon nuclear weapons.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Yoon said they had agreed to ramp up three-way ties with the United States in responding to North Korea’s evolving military threat.

Meanwhile, in launches conducted on Feb. 27 and March 5, North Korea did not specify what missile was used, but said they tested components for reconnaissance satellites Kim said would soon be launched to monitor military activity by the United States and its allies.

“The purpose of these tests, which did not demonstrate ICBM range, was likely to evaluate this new system before conducting a test at full range in the future, potentially disguised as a space launch,” Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said in a statement.

The U.S. Treasury Department announced new actions on Friday to help prevent North Korea from “accessing foreign items and technology that enable it to advance its weapons programs.”

The administration is supposedly taking a range of other, unspecified, actions in the coming days.

Pyongyang unveiled the new missile system, the Hwasong-17, at an October 2020 military parade and it reappeared at a defense exhibition in October 2021.  This missile would be North Korea’s longest-range weapon, carried on a transporter vehicle with 11 axles, with some analysts calling it a “monster.”  The analysts say the recent test may have involved just one stage of the missile, adjusting the fuel use to fly at lower altitudes.

The intelligence assessments were released simultaneously by the U.S. and South Korea and came as North Korea reported that Kim Jong Un had inspected the Sohae Satellite Launching Ground.

The U.S. added it had heightened its ballistic missile defense readiness after a “significant increase” in North Korean missile testing.

Kim defended his nation’s ‘satellite work” as not only about gathering intelligence, but protecting North Korea’s sovereignty and national interests, exercising its legitimate rights to self-defense, and elevating national prestige, state news agency KCNA reported.  “He stressed that this urgent project for perfecting the country’s war preparedness capacity by improving our state’s war deterrent is the supreme revolutionary task, a political and military priority task to which our Party and government attach the most importance.” KCNA said.

Afghanistan: Nearly 400 civilians have been killed in attacks in Afghanistan since the Taliban takeover, more than 80% of them by a group affiliated with Islamic State (ISIS-K), a UN report showed this week, underscoring the scale of the insurgency faced by the new rulers.

Random Musings

--Presidential approval ratings….

Gallup: 41% approve of Biden’s job performance, 55% disapprove; 35% of independents approve (Feb. 1-17).

Rasmussen: 41% approve, 58% disapprove (Mar. 11)

A new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist survey of adults across America, taken after Biden’s State of the Union address and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, showed the president’s approval rating jumped 8 points to 47%.  Since 1978, there had only been six times when a president saw an approval rating improve 4 points or more following State of the Union addresses, according to the pollsters.  Three of those bounces were for former President Bill Clinton.

Biden’s grade on his handling of Ukraine was up 18 points to 52% approval.

His approval rating for his handling of the coronavirus was 55%, up 8 points.

And on his handling of the economy, 45% approve, up 8 points.

The big change has been among Democrats and independents.  For example on Ukraine, Biden’s approval among Dems went up 27 points; 17 points among independents.

--Former Vice President Mike Pence urged Republicans to move on from the 2020 election and declared that “there is no room in this party for apologists for Putin” as he further cemented his break from former President Donald Trump.

Pence, in a speech to top party donors in New Orleans last weekend, took on those in his party who have failed to forcefully condemn Vladimir Putin for his unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.

“Where would Russian tanks be today if NATO had not expanded the borders of freedom?  There is no room in this party for apologists for Putin,” Pence said, according to excerpts from the speech.  “There is only room for champions of freedom.”

But Pence did not directly reference Trump, even though he has repeatedly used language that has been criticized as deferential to Putin.

Pence also continued to push back on Trump’s lies about the 2020 election as he lays the groundwork for a possible 2024 presidential run, while the former president has continued to falsely insist that Pence had the power to overturn the 2020 election, which he did not.

“Elections are about the future,” Pence said.  “My fellow Republicans, we can only win if we are united around an optimistic vision for the future based on our highest values. We cannot win by fighting yesterday’s battles, or by relitigating the past.”

But Pence also joined others in the Republican Party in blaming Joe Biden for Putin’s actions, accusing the current president of having “squandered the deterrence that our administration put in place to keep Putin and Russia from even trying to redraw international boundaries by force.”

“It’s no coincidence that Russia waited until 2022 to invade Ukraine,” Pence said.  “Weakness arouses evil, and the magnitude of evil sweeping across Ukraine speaks volumes about this president.”

Pence allies think that he can forge a coalition that brings together movement conservatives, white Evangelical Christians and more establishment-minded Republicans, while Trump’s attacks on Pence have made him deeply unpopular with large swaths of Trump’s loyal base, potentially complicating his bid for the Republican presidential nomination.

--George F. Will / Washington Post

“Floundering in his attempts to wield political power while lacking a political office, Donald Trump looks increasingly like a stray orange hair to be flicked off the nation’s sleeve. His residual power, which he must use or lose, is to influence his party’s selection of candidates for state and federal offices.  This is, however, perilous because he has the power of influence only if he is perceived to have it.  That perception will dissipate if his interventions in Republican primaries continue to be unimpressive.

“So, Trump must try to emulate the protagonist of ‘A Connecticut Yankee in King Arthur’s Court.’  In Mark Twain’s novel, a 19th-century American is transported back in time to Britain in the year 528.  He gets in trouble, is condemned to death, but remembers that a solar eclipse occurred on the date of his scheduled execution.  He saves himself by vowing to extinguish the sun but promising to let it shine again if his demands are met.

“Trump is faltering at the business of commanding outcomes that are, like Twain’s eclipse, independent of his interventions.  Consider the dilemma of David Perdue.

“He is the former Republican senator because Trump, harping on the cosmic injustice of his November loss in 2020, confused and demoralized Georgia Republicans enough to cause Perdue’s defeat by 1.2 percentage points in the January 2021 runoff.  Nevertheless, Trump talked Perdue into running in this year’s gubernatorial primary against Georgia’s Republican incumbent, Brian Kemp, whom Trump loathes because Kemp spurned Trump’s demand that Georgia’s presidential vote be delegitimized.  In a February poll, Kemp led Purdue by 10 points.

“Trump failed in his attempt to boost his preferred Senate candidate in North Carolina, Rep. Ted Budd, by pressuring a rival out of the race. As of mid-January, Budd was trailing in the polls. Trump reportedly might endorse a second Senate candidate in Alabama, his first endorsement, of Rep. Mo Brooks, having been less than earthshaking.  Trump has endorsed Idaho Lt. Gov. Janice McGeachin in the gubernatorial primary against Gov. Brad Little.  A poll published in January: Little 59 percent, McGeachin 18 percent.  During Trump’s presidency, a majority of Republicans said they were more supporters of Trump than of the GOP.  That has now reversed.

“Trump is an open book who has been reading himself to the nation for 40 years.  In that time, he has changed just one important word in his torrent of talk: He has replaced ‘Japan’ with ‘China’ in assigning blame for our nation’s supposed anemia.  He is an entertainer whose repertoire is stale.

“A European war is unhelpful for Trump because it reminds voters that Longfellow was right: Life is real, life is earnest.  Trump’s strut through presidential politics was made possible by an American reverie; war in Europe has reminded people that politics is serious.

“From Capitol Hill to city halls, Democrats have presided over surges of debt, inflation, crime, pandemic authoritarianism and educational intolerance.  Public schools, a point of friction between citizens and government, are hostages of Democratic-aligned teachers unions that have positioned K-12 education in an increasingly adversarial relationship with parents.  The most lethal threat to Democrats, however, is the message Americans are hearing from the party’s media-magnified progressive minority: You should be ashamed of your country.

“Trump’s message is similar. He says this country is saturated with corruption, from the top, where dimwits represent the evidently dimwitted voters who elected them, down to municipalities that conduct rigged elections.  Progressives say the nation’s past is squalid and not really past; Trump says the nation’s present is a disgrace.

“Speaking of embarrassments: we are the sum of our choices, and Vladimir Putin has provoked some Trump poodles to make illuminating ones. Their limitless capacity for canine loyalty now encompasses the Kremlin war criminal… For example, the vaudevillian-as-journalist Tucker Carlson, who never lapses into logic, speaks like an arrested-development adolescent: Putin has never called me a racist, so there.

“J.D. Vance, groveling for Trump’s benediction (Vance covets Ohio’s Republican Senate nomination), two weeks ago said: ‘I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine.’  Apparently upon discovering that Ohio has 43,000 Ukrainian Americans, Vance underwent a conviction transplant, saying, ‘Russia’s assault on Ukraine is unquestionably a tragedy,’ and emitting clouds of idolatry for Trump’s supposedly Metternichian diplomacy regarding Putin.

“For Trump, the suppurating wound on American life, and for those who share his curdled venom, war is a hellacious distraction from their self-absorption.  Fortunately, their ability to be major distractions is waning.”

--Karl Rove / Wall Street Journal

“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has brought to the forefront a debate about the Republican Party’s fundamental beliefs on foreign policy. Have Republicans rejected the tradition of conservative internationalism espoused by Presidents Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush in favor of President Donald Trump’s ‘America First’ approach, a form of populist isolationism.?

“Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine three weeks ago, there’s been little polling on this.  But there is some evidence that most Republicans don’t share Mr. Trump’s isolationist perspective – let alone the view he offered two days before the invasion that Vladimir Putin declaring parts of Ukraine ‘independent’ before sending in his military to overthrow the popularly elected Ukrainian government was ‘genius’ and ‘pretty savvy.’

“Instead, a March 8 Reuters/Ipsos poll found that when asked who is ‘primarily to blame for the current situation between Russia and Ukraine,’ 66% of Republicans blamed Mr. Putin, 2% Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, 15% President Biden, 4% the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and 13% someone else or said they didn’t know.  By comparison, among all respondents, 68% blamed Mr. Putin, 3% Mr. Zelensky, 10% Mr. Biden, 3% NATO and 16% someone else or said they didn’t know.  Rather than a love of Mr. Putin, what seems to differentiate GOP opinion from the rest of the electorate is a partisan knee-jerk reaction among some Republicans to blame Mr. Biden.

“It took 11 days, but Mr. Trump realized he’d stepped in a pile of decomposing bio-matter.  Last Saturday he tried cleaning things up in an event closed to the press by reportedly saying, ‘At what point do countries say, ‘No, we can’t take this massive crime against humanity?’’  But Mr. Trump being Mr. Trump, he had to renew his criticism of NATO, calling it ‘a paper tiger,’ according to a source quoted by CBS.  It was ironic he did so at a moment the alliance finally began demonstrating its strength by supplying Ukraine with weapons, ramping up sanctions and readying its forces in member countries bordering the conflict, crucially supporting America’s geopolitical interests.

“Though the Reuters/Ipsos poll makes it look as though the GOP isn’t markedly more hawkish on Ukraine than the general electorate, Republicans don’t seem to have taken a hard turn into isolationism.  Voters across the spectrum are unified against sending ‘troops to Ukraine to help defend Ukraine from a Russian invasion,’ with 35% saying yes, 65% saying no.  Among Republicans, it’s 33% yes, 67% no.

“Yet while they give sending U.S. troops a thumbs down, Americans – including a healthy majority of Republicans – see that this conflict involves our country’s interests and support a robust response.

“By a margin of 63% no to 37% yes, Republicans reject the view that what’s happening in Ukraine is ‘none of our business.’  That compares with 65% no to 35% yes among all voters….

“Even in this time of intense GOP concern over immigration, Republicans support the idea that the U.S. ‘should take in Ukrainian refugees’ by 64% to 36%.  Overall support for the notion is 74% to 26%.

“These numbers suggest that Republican members of Congress, candidates and commentators echoing Mr. Trump’s isolationism and Kremlin apologetics are out of sync with GOP voters. Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R., N.C.) didn’t reflect Republican opinion when he called Mr. Zelensky ‘a thug’ and Ukraine’s government ‘incredibly evil’ last Saturday at a town hall in Asheville, N.C.  Ohio Senate candidate J.D. Vance was way out of touch with GOP voters when he declared in an interview, ‘I gotta be honest with you, I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another.’  He later backtracked, perhaps having realized he’d offended Ohio’s large Ukrainian-American community as well as plenty of Reaganite Republicans.

“The sheer aggression and promiscuous brutality of Mr. Putin, combined with the awe-inspiring courage of Mr. Zelensky, the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian people, have provided the U.S. a clarifying moment.  ‘Come home, America’ turns out to be as unwise a foreign-policy doctrine in 2022 as it was when Democrat George McGovern coined the phrase in 1972.  It’s much clearer now than a month ago that when the U.S. withdraws from the world, the world suffers – and so does America.”

--A Washington jury on Tuesday found Guy Wesley Reffitt guilty on all five counts relating to his role in the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol, verdicts that could land him in prison for decades.

The jury reached its decision in less than four hours.  This is a major victory for federal prosecutors who tried Reffitt, the first Jan. 6 defendant to go to trail, and it certainly should influence how other defendants will handle their cases going forward.

Reffitt is an alleged antigovernment militia member from Texas who prosecutors said went to the Capitol armed with a handgun, wearing body armor and carrying flex cuffs, and sought to disrupt the certification of the 2020 presidential election.  He led the way for other members of the mob who stormed the building, prosecutors said, then later threatened his own children to try to keep them from turning him in to law enforcement.

Reffitt’s wife vowed that her family would “continue to fight together” to appeal her husband’s convictions, and urged other Jan. 6 defendants not to be intimidated by the verdicts in his case.

“Guy was used as an example today to make all the 1/6ers take a plea. Do not take a plea, 1/6ers.”

The jury took four hours, you idiot.  And what do you mean your family will fight together.  The kids were threatened!

One of the charges was obstruction of justice based on threats he allegedly made to his teenage son and daughter upon returning to his Texas home from Washington, telling them to “choose a side or die” and that they would be traitors if they reported him to law enforcement.

William Welch, Reffett’s court-appointed defense attorney, made a minimal effort to counter the government’s claims by portraying his client as a hyperbolic blowhard who is prone to alcohol-fueled rants.

--Kathleen Parker / Washington Post

“Certain images tattoo themselves on our brains and remain there without our permission, haunting us with nightmares or tickling us with delight. The latter kind is rare these days, but one I’ll relish for years comes from former House Speaker John A. Boehner’s 2021 memoir.

“In ‘On the House,’ the Ohio Republican recalls a meeting with then-Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.), who came to ask Boehner’s forgiveness for trying to oust him from the speakership.  In addition to nearly ruining Boehner’s political life, Meadows and fellow members of the so-called Freedom Caucus bred chaos in the House and blocked everything Boehner tried to do, even to the point of shutting down the government in 2013.

“Subsequently, Meadows apparently regretted his actions and literally got down on both knees in Boehner’s office to beg forgiveness. Surprised by this demonstration of contrition, Boehner later wrote, he wasn’t sure what to do with Meadows.”

So with the above as background, and as reported by Charles Bethea of the New Yorker, Mark Meadows allegedly registered to vote in September of 2020, listing his domicile as a very modest home, like a mobile home, in Scaly Mountain, N.C., though he never lived there.  He then voted absentee, by mail, in the election, the director of the Macon County Board of Elections told Bethea.

Parker:

“At long last, ladies and gentlemen, we may finally have evidence of voter fraud in America – and it comes from the Trump White House, of all places. For the past two years, Meadows has echoed Trump’s assertions that the 2020 election was fraudulent and has spoken richly about voter corruption caused by ‘people just moving around.’

“You mean, like Mr. and Mrs. Meadows did?

“Records show a pattern of their house-selling and house-buying along an electoral timeline that ought to raise an eyebrow at least.  In March 2020, the couple sold a house in Sapphire, N.C., for $370,000. That September, they claimed to have moved to Scaly Mountain to live in a 14-by-62-foot mobile home that sold for $105,000 in 2021.  One can fairly wonder: Why? In previous years, they owned a 6,000-square-foot house in Jackson County, N.C.  And in 2021, the couple bought a South Carolina home for close to $1.6 million….

“On voter registration forms, a residential address is ‘where you physically live,’ which one signs ‘under penalty of perjury.’  But at the time of his registration, Meadows also had a home near Washington, D.C., and perhaps needed a North Carolina residence so he could vote there.  The rules seem clear enough even for Meadows, a man known for working harder to secure television appearances than governing.  Perhaps he was overbooked and couldn’t make it ‘home’ to Scaly Mountain – except to vote.

“If he’s charged with perjury and/or voter fraud, it may not be Meadows’ only rendezvous with justice. The House voted late last year to hold Meadows in contempt of Congress and to refer him to the Justice Department for a possible criminal charge over his refusal to respond to questions about the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol.

“If Meadows never spent the night at his pretend home up a mountain in North Carolina, he might have done more to obstruct election integrity than to correct the slack in the system and the gaps in the laws.

“Loss of confidence in our elections is no small thing. Both liberals and conservatives list election integrity in the top four or five issues of greatest concern, according to Jason Snead, executive director of the nonpartisan Honest Elections Project. When politicians abuse the very system they purport to protect – or otherwise benefit by claiming fraud where none exists – they deserve no leniency from the courts or the public.

“Even if what Meadows is alleged to have done may seem minor in the scheme of things, such actions pose a real threat to election integrity and therefore democracy.  Next time Meadows gets down on his knees, he might do best to pray.  I gave up cigarettes long ago, but I’d gladly toast the former speaker with a merlot of his choice.”

--In an absolutely pathetic appearance, his first public one in more than six months, former Governor Andrew Cuomo emerged from his self-exile to cast himself as a victim of “cancel culture” and to vow to reinsert himself in New York’s political discourse.

Speaking at God’s Battalion of Prayer Church, a Black congregation in Brooklyn, Cuomo defiantly told a sparse collection of about 100 congregants, if that, that he wanted to “tell my truth,” describing cancel cultures as a “frightening” form of extremism and claiming he had been “vindicated” in the months since he resigned in August following a string of sexual harassment allegations.

Cuomo placed far more blame on others for his downfall than a display of contrition for his own actions.

Cuomo reportedly has more than $16 million in his campaign account, a small portion of which he has begun spending on television advertisements that portrayed him as a victim of politically motivated “attacks.”

While he hasn’t given any signs he is planning to run for elected office this year, he left the door open for a comeback, saying, “God isn’t done with me yet.”

Yes, He is.  As in, He is really done with you. 

As to whether or not you think you are still electable, governor, that is the last thing on His mind these days.

A recent poll from the Siena College Research Institute found that 80 percent of New Yorkers believe Cuomo made the right decision to resign.

--Sydney, Australia, was again pummeled by rain with the nation’s eastern rivers already near capacity following record downpours in recent weeks, cutting off towns, and sweeping away farms, livestock and roads.  Nineteen people have been killed, most either in flooded homes or in cars attempting to cross flooded roads, since the deluge began.

--The Amazon rainforest is moving towards a ‘tipping point’ where trees may die off en masse, say researchers.

A study suggests the world’s largest rainforest is losing its ability to bounce back from damage caused by droughts, fires and deforestation.

Large swathes could become sparsely forested savannah, which is much less efficient than tropical forest at sucking carbon dioxide from the air.

The giant forest traps carbon that would otherwise add to global warming.

But previous studies have shown that parts of the Amazon are now emitting more carbon dioxide than can be absorbed.

“The trees are losing health and could be approaching a tipping point – basically, a mass loss of trees,’ said Dr. Chris Boulton of the University of Exeter.

The findings, based on three decades of satellite data, show alarming trends in the “health” of the Amazon rainforest.

There are signs of a loss of resilience in more than 75% of the forest, with trees taking longer to recover from the effects of droughts largely driven by climate change as well as human impacts such as deforestation and fires.

A vicious cycle of damage could trigger “dieback,” the scientists said.

And while it’s not clear when that critical point might be reached, the implications for climate change, biodiversity and the local community would be “devastating.”

--The man who had the first transplant to replace his human heart with a genetically-modified pig’s heart without immediate rejection died Tuesday at the University of Maryland Medical Center in Baltimore, two months after the groundbreaking surgery.

David Bennett’s condition began deteriorating several days ago, the Medical Center said Wednesday.  The 57-year-old transplant patient had terminal heart disease that led to the surgery on Jan. 7.  It wasn’t immediately clear if his body rejected the organ.

Researchers have been working for decades on xenotransplantation, or the transplantation of an organ between two species, amid an organ shortage.  Roughly 106,000 people are on the waiting list for organ transplants, according to the Department of Health and Human Services.

This story reminds me of the beginning of human-to-human heart transplants, performed by South Africa’s Dr. Christiaan Barnard, who became quite a celebrity after performing the first two such operations on adults (there was a heart transplant on a baby in between these two that lasted only six hours).

Louis Washkansky was the first and lived for 18 days, and Philip Blaiberg was the second and he lived 19 months and 15 days.

Today such an operation is relatively normal with generally solid outcomes, see the late John “Jack” Bogle, who died at the age of 89 in Jan. 2019, after receiving a heart transplant when he was 66.

But back in the 1960s – Washkansky’s transplant in 1967, Blaiberg’s in ’68 – these were amazing times and I surprise myself in always remembering their names, as I rapidly forget so much otherwise as I grow older.

So hopefully down the road we are long remembering the name of David Bennett in his own right.

--Lastly, there was a rather wondrous discovery this week, the wreck of Sir Ernest Shackleton’s ship Endurance, which 107 yards ago became trapped in sea ice and sank off the coast of Antarctic.

The wooden ship had not been seen since it went down in the Weddell Sea in 1915, and in February the Endurance22 Expedition set off from Cape Town, South Africa, a month after the 100th anniversary of Shackleton’s death on a mission to locate it.

The Falklands Maritime Heritage Trust said Endurance was found at a depth of 3,008 meters (10,000 feet) and approximately six kilometers south of the position originally recorded by the ship’s captain Frank Worsley.

The expedition’s director of exploration said footage of Endurance showed it to be intact and “by far the finest wooden shipwreck” he has seen.

The initial photos are amazing.  You can clearly see “Endurance” arced across the stern.

The director of the expedition, Mensun Bound, said, “This is a milestone in polar history.”

Shackleton and his crew set out to achieve the first land crossing of Antarctica but Endurance did not reach land and became trapped in dense pack ice, forcing the 28 men on board to eventually abandon ship.  In the greatest adventure of all time, all 28 survived.

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Pray for the men and women of our armed forces…and all the fallen.

God bless America.

Pray for Ukraine.

And for Winterset, Iowa, birthplace of John Wayne and a part of the country I love.  Six died in a tornado there last weekend, including two children (with another victim in a neighboring county).

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Gold $1992
Oil $109.09

Returns for the week 3/7-3/11

Dow Jones -2.0%  [32944]
S&P 500  -2.9%  [4204]
S&P MidCap  -1.7%
Russell 2000  -1.1%
Nasdaq  -3.5%  [12843]

Returns for the period 1/1/22-3/11/22

Dow Jones  -9.3%
S&P 500  -11.8%
S&P MidCap  -9.5%
Russell 2000  -11.8%
Nasdaq  -17.9%

Bulls 32.2
Bears 31.0

Hang in there.

Brian Trumbore

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