Week in Review

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Week in Review

11/26/2022

For the week 11/21-11/25

[Posted 6:00 PM ET, Friday]

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Edition 1,232

To start off on a lighter note this holiday week, since I haven’t been running like I used to I’ve gained a little weight and desperately needed a new dress shirt (think neck size), so I have this terrific mall a 2-minute drive from me and went to Macy’s on Tuesday and they had signs all over the menswear section, “Early Black Friday Sales…60% off and more…” and I was rather psyched…finding a nice $60 shirt that set me back a whopping $19! 

Heck, I was so excited, I went back Wednesday for another…same deal.  Christmas morning, I just may be buying the big goose in the butcher shop window for Tiny Tim with the savings.

And no doubt, especially on apparel (I’ll be going to this store like every day the week after Christmas looking for more big bargains), this is going to be the case nationwide as most stores look to unload bloated inventories at almost any price.

Then again, I could just exercise more and cut back on beer and keep wearing my old stuff, but this is more fun.

On the sports front, I recognize a vast majority of Americans aren’t into the World Cup, which I always get a kick out of because (a) it’s the biggest sporting event in the world, and (b) many of the same folks spent countless hours sitting in the cold at their child’s youth soccer games that you’d think they’d care a little more since most of their kids who played the sport do.

So I did make sure I had most of this column put to bed early before the USA-England match in Qatar this afternoon, an exciting 0-0 draw (yes, a 0-0 draw can be exciting), which sets up a fascinating geopolitical story next Tuesday…USA-Iran, which we have to win to advance, and if we advance, many of those fans who didn’t initially care will have to…because even if it’s just for one more match, it will be big for this nation that desperately needs something to unite us.

But America is also the world’s melting pot like no other, so it’s fun for a lot of folks in our country who don’t draw their ancestry back to Plymouth Rock as they cheer on their home countries.  And this is good, too.

Lastly, what Elon Musk is apparently about to do with Twitter is not good, offer a “general amnesty” to formerly suspended accounts, which in the words of former CIA officer/CNN intelligence analyst Robert Baer is Libertarian bullshit…my word, not his.  This is the last thing we need…gobs more disinformation.  If you send it to me, you’ll know by my silence what I think of it, and you.

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This week in Ukraine….

Winter is essentially here in Ukraine.  By next Wednesday, the temperature across much of the country won’t get above freezing for at least the ensuing week.  Just imagine having to live in those conditions without heat. 

According to Dr. Hans Henri P. Kluge, World Health Organization regional director for Europe, half of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure is either damaged or destroyed, and 10 million are without power.  The WHO has documented 703 attacks on health infrastructure as well since Russia’s invasion began.  Wednesday, a newborn baby was killed in a Russian missile strike on a maternity unit in the Zaporizhzhia region.  The baby’s mother, who was the only woman in the facility at the time, and a doctor were rescued from the rubble.

“Put simply, this winter will be about survival,” Dr. Kluge told a news conference in Kyiv this week.  Ukraine’s health system is “facing its darkest days in the war so far,” and the best solution is for the conflict to end.

Dr. Kluge said hundreds of hospitals and healthcare facilities were “no longer fully operational, lacking fuel, water and electricity to meet basic needs” as a result of attacks.

Maternity wards need incubators, blood banks need refrigerators and intensive care beds need ventilators,” Kluge said, adding that “all require energy.”

Up to three million people could flee their homes in search of warmth and safety, the WHO estimates, but at the same time millions, namely the elderly, are physically unable to leave, or don’t have the resources to.

Over the weekend, Ukraine came close to nuclear disaster as shells hit near reactors and radioactive waste storage facilities at the Zaporizhzhia power plant, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency.  Russia and Ukraine blamed each other for the attack.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Russian forces launched almost 400 strikes on eastern Ukraine on Sunday.

Whoever fired on the plant was taking “huge risks and gambling with many people’s lives,” said Rafael Grossi, director general of the IAEA.  “We are talking meters, not kilometers.  We were fortunate a potentially serious nuclear incident did not happen.  Next time, we may not be so lucky,” he said in a statement late Sunday.

Although the region is held by Ukraine, the whole of Zaporizhzhia is claimed by Russia after self-styled referendums in September.

Ukraine’s national power grid operator said on Tuesday that the country had sufficient fuel reserves, despite Russian air strikes on energy facilities across the country.  Volodymyr Kudrytskyi of Ukrenergo said the possibility of a complete shutdown of power generating infrastructure would depend on many factors including the effectiveness of air defense systems and what facilities are hit.

Regarding the damage dealt to power generating facilities by Russian missile attacks thus far, Kudrytskyi said it was “colossal” but dismissed the need to evacuate civilians.  He said Ukrainians could face long power outages but that the grid operator wanted to help provide the conditions for people to remain in the country through winter.

Practically no thermal or hydroelectric stations had been left unscathed by the Russian attacks, he said.

Electricity in the Kyiv region was knocked out with missile strikes Wednesday killing at least three people in the capital.

President Zelensky accused Russia of bringing “terror and murder” to his country.  The European Union then designated Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism for the first time, parliament passing a resolution overwhelmingly by a 494-58 margin, with 44 abstentions; and shortly afterward, the parliament’s website found itself under crippling denial-of-service cyberattacks Wednesday.

While the move is largely symbolic, as the EU doesn’t have a legal framework to back it up, Zelensky welcomed the news, writing on Twitter, “Russia must be isolated at all levels and held accountable in order to end its long-standing policy of terrorism in Ukraine and across the globe.”

The EU did disburse another 2.5 billion euros to Ukraine for “urgent repairs” and reconstruction, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said.

The Institute for the Study of War wrote in its latest assessment that regular power outages are now expected to last until at least the end of March.  However, the ISW predicts optimistically, “the Russian military will fail to achieve its goal of degrading the Ukrainian will to fight.”

We also learned Wednesday that Russian missile strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure caused blackouts across half of neighboring Moldova, though power was restored in the capital Chisinau.

Moldova, one of Europe’s poorest countries and with the highest per-capital intake of Ukrainian refugees, shares a border with Ukraine, a fellow ex-Soviet state, and is connected to its power grid.  The breakaway Russian-backed region of Transdniestria was also impacted.

Meanwhile, the war in eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions, the industrial area known as the Donbas, has been raging, the fiercest battles of the war, Russia battering Ukrainian frontline positions with artillery fire, President Zelensky said in a video address on Sunday evening.  Russian forces from Kherson have been redeployed to the Donbas.

Late Wednesday, Ukraine requested an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council to discuss the latest Russian strikes against power-generating facilities.  President Zelensky said, “The murder of civilians and the destruction of civilian infrastructure are acts of terror.  Ukraine will continue to demand a decisive response from the world to these crimes,” he said in a tweet.

In his address late on Thursday, Zelensky said: “Together we endured nine months of full-scale war and Russia has not found a way to break us, and will not find one.”

He also accused Russia of incessantly shelling Kherson, after Russia abandoned it earlier this month. Seven people were killed and 21 wounded in a Russian attack on Thursday, local authorities said.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Thursday that Ukraine’s leadership could “end the suffering” in Ukraine by meeting Russia’s demands to resolve the conflict.  Peskov was asked whether Russia was worried about the effect on the civilian population of its strikes on energy infrastructure and he said Russia only attacked targets of military relevance, not “social” ones.

--In a speech to a security forum in Halifax, Canada over the weekend, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has offered a preview of “a possible world of tyranny and turmoil.”

After a series of battlefield defeats, Russia is hoping to exhaust Ukraine’s air defenses with its punishing missile strikes and buy time to reset its forces, Pentagon officials say.  Austin said Russia was breaking the laws of war. 

“These aren’t just lapses.  These aren’t exceptions to the rule. These are atrocities,” Austin said. “Russian missile barrages have left innocent Ukrainians without heat, water, and electricity.  We’ve seen schools attacked.  Children killed.  Hospitals bombed. Centers of Ukrainian history and culture reduced to rubble.”

Austin said the United States wouldn’t get dragged into Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “war of choice,” but warned of the risks of global nuclear proliferation if Moscow were to prevail.  “Putin’s fellow autocrats are watching. And they could well conclude that getting nuclear weapons would give them a hunting license of their own.  And that could drive a dangerous spiral of nuclear proliferation.”

--Ukraine’s Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko has said more Western aid is needed to help it meet its growing reconstruction costs following this week’s escalation of Russian missile attacks.

In August the World Bank estimated it would take $105 billion to repair Ukraine’s physical infrastructure but Marchenko told Reuters on Thursday that number was now going higher.

Marchenko said Ukraine’s government budget, including pay for the military, you have to remember, allows for only a very small amount for reconstruction costs which it needs to increase if possible.

Some senior European officials have estimated it is likely to cost more than one trillion euros to rebuild Ukraine when the war finally ends.

--Finland announced it would construct a barbed-wired fence along a maximum of 124 miles of Finland’s 832-mile border with Russia, the longest border of any European Union member.  According to Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin, the fence’s main purpose would be to help border guards monitor and prevent possible large-scale illegal migration.  But Helsinki is concerned over developments both in Russia and Ukraine, as well as Moscow’s threats of retaliation as Finland joins NATO.

Speaking of which, Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orban, said his country’s parliament would ratify NATO membership for Finland and Sweden early next year.

But that still leaves Turkey, and President Erdogan continues to say the two countries don’t do enough to combat terrorism, specifically when it comes to the Kurds, a story that got more complicated all over again this week.  See below.

Opinion….

The Wall Street Journal’s Stephen Fidler and Ann M. Simmons had an extensive piece Tuesday on how “Russia has been burning through equipment, ammunition and weaponry at rates that have raised questions about how effectively and for how long it can continue to prosecute its war against Ukraine.

“Both sides have suffered heavy losses of men and materiel since the invasion began in February, but Moscow…is more dependent on its own shrinking economy to replenish supplies than Kyiv is.  Ukraine’s economy has been more devastated than Russia’s, but has more powerful backers in the U.S. and its allies, which are providing billions of dollars of military and economic aid.

“ ‘They are running low on everything,’ Eliot Cohen, chair in strategy at the Washington, D.C.-based bipartisan Center for Strategic and International Studies, said of the Russians.  A significant portion of the Russian arsenal brought out of storage has deteriorated because of corruption, mismanagement and poor maintenance, he said.

“Western and Ukrainian officials and military analysts say there have been indications that Russian stocks of certain critical weapons systems, including precision missiles, are running low.  Moscow can’t use its entire inventory of precision missiles – some of which are also used to carry nuclear warheads – because it has to hold some back for use in case of other eventualities, including to deter NATO forces.”

[Ukraine’s military chief said Tuesday that Russia has only 119 Iskander ballistic missiles left, which represents just 13 percent of its alleged stocks going back to the start of the invasion in February.]

But Moscow has been importing weaponry from Iran and North Korea…drones from the former, artillery shells from the latter.

The Washington Post reported that Russian and Iranian officials finalized a deal to begin manufacturing hundreds of unmanned weaponized aircraft on Russian soil, according to intelligence seen by U.S. and other Western security agencies.

Russia has deployed more than 400 Iranian-made attack drones against Ukraine since August, intelligence officials say.

With the above in mind….

Mark T. Kimmitt / Wall Street Journal…Kimmitt a retired U.S. Army brigadier general and former assistant secretary of state.

“Winter is coming, which will make it difficult for Ukraine to continue its advances against Russia.  The next several months – known by historians as rasputitsa, or disagreeable travel – have been the great enemy of Eurasian armies for centuries.  Soldiers call this period ‘General Mud,’ shorthand for the harsh environmental conditions that brought Russia’s French and German invaders to their knees in 1812 and 1943, respectively.

“But the harsh winter should be seen as a time to make preparations for the spring, not to pause all operations.  Ukraine should continue its long-range attacks against vulnerable Russia ammunition depots, command centers and supply lines. With help from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Kyiv should also begin a deliberate effort to reconstitute its military strength in time for the 2023 campaign season.

“The various preparations that Ukraine must make are obvious: Harden defensive positions along the current frontlines, integrate replacement troops into units, and issue winter clothing and equipment.  This is the leitmotif of any military after a long campaign, but it would be a missed opportunity to stop there.  Ukraine needs a more comprehensive approach, which should accelerate the delivery of the still-vast military stockpiles and training capacity of NATO countries to regenerate its army as its Russian adversary struggles to resupply its troops and incorporate its mobilized reserves.

“Under this new strategy, allies shouldn’t merely continue to resupply crucial equipment and ammunition, Himars rockets and air-defense assets.  They should also conduct operational planning symposia with the Ukrainian military, consisting of workshops on lessons learned in 2022 and operational planning for 2023. NATO can also redouble its efforts to train key leaders and units outside Ukraine to build a second layer of personnel expertise on the operations and repair of Western equipment – and, in anticipation of political decisions, flight training on advanced Western aircraft as well as ground training on more-capable air-defense systems and combat vehicles.

“On the battlefield, the West should beef up its support for Ukraine’s deep-fires campaign against supply depots, logistical routes, command centers and second-echelon support units well beyond Russian frontlines.  This will obstruct Russia’s attempt to regenerate its own combat power even with the arrival of the newly mobilized troops and Iranian drones.  These efforts can be complemented with local attacks against Russian forces as opportunities arise.  Keeping the Russians concentrated on shepherding their own combat power and preventing their ability to conduct ground operations will be the best assurance of forestalling any Battle of the Bulge-type counterattack from the east.

“These military activities must be supported with a robust diplomatic and information campaign.  NATO has demonstrated remarkable unity, but its support can’t be taken for granted. Against a backdrop of high inflation, rising fuel costs and slow progress on the ground, leaders can expect to see their countries’ public support for the war effort wane if they don’t continue to make a persuasive case for why supporting Ukraine is in their interest….

“To write a campaign plan, military planners and logisticians need hundreds of pages for the necessary instructions and timelines. Commanders, however, are expected to provide their goal in as few words as possible, which serves as a campaign lodestar. Gen. Dwight Eisenhower wrote his intent to defeat Hitler’s army very simply: ‘You will enter the continent of Europe and, in conjunction with other Allied nations, undertake operations aimed at the heart of Germany and the destruction of her armed forces.’  Mr. Zelensky’s intent for this winter should be equally simple: ‘You will reinforce and regenerate the army in conjunction with NATO to push the Russian army out of Ukraine, accept its surrender or complete its destruction on the battlefield.’

“Russian forces likely won’t be driven back to the preinvasion borders by the end of this year.  Nor will Crimea be liberated by then.  But with the proper reconstitution, planning and training this winter, in addition to the resumption of Ukraine offensives soon after the spring thaw, those aren’t unreasonable goals for 2023.”

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Wall Street and the Economy

In this holiday week, it’s still all about the Federal Reserve, and future moves on interest rates.  The Fed released the minutes from its Nov. 1-2 meeting of the Open Market Committee on Wednesday and a “substantial majority” of policymakers agreed it would “likely soon be appropriate” to slow the pace of interest rate hikes as debate broadened over the implications of the central bank’s rapid tightening of monetary policy.

The readout showed officials were largely satisfied they could stop front-loading the rate increases and move in smaller, more deliberate steps as the economy adjusted to more expensive credit…like four straight 75-basis point hikes.

“A slower pace…would better allow the (FOMC) to assess progress toward its goals of maximum employment and price stability,” said the minutes.  “The uncertain lags and magnitudes associated with the effects of monetary policy actions on economic activity and inflation were among the reasons cited.”

Nothing really new.  The market had already sniffed out what seems inevitable at the Dec. 13-14 confab…a 50-basis point increase in the funds rate after the four 75bp moves.  And then at least 25bp more early in 2023 (the first FOMC meeting of the year is Jan. 31-Feb. 1).  By then we will have had a slew of inflation data, enough for the Fed to determine if a real “trend” has been established.  It’s been too early until now, despite the market’s pronouncements, to say one really is established.

This week we just had a durable goods reading for October, stronger than expected, 1.0%, and 0.5% ex-transportation, while new home sales for the month also exceeded expectations, 632,000 on an annualized basis vs. 588,000 prior revised, but still down 5.8% from a year ago.

Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed-rate weekly mortgage barometer fell to 6.58%, so down from a peak of 7.08% two weeks ago as the 10-year Treasury has fallen from its peak as well to 3.69%.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow barometer for fourth-quarter growth is up to 4.3%.

The nationwide price for a gallon of regular gas plunged to $3.57 this week vs. $3.70 last week, and $3.39 a year ago, so lazy news reporters have to stop saying consumers are pulling back because of high gas prices.  They aren’t that high now, sports fans…especially against the peak of $5.01 June 14.

Now if you’re talking diesel, it fell from $5.33 to $5.24 the past week, but that is still well above last year’s $3.64 and to beat a dead horse, this remains a key reason why prices at the grocery and drug stores remain too high for comfort.

So said lazy national reporter should be saying, “While prices at the pump have come down substantially, providing relief for Joe Blowdom and family for that trip to visit Grandma Moses, the cost of eggs and bacon for wife Cricket (her stage name) remains sky high.”

Next week we have important readings on personal income and consumption (and the accompanying personal consumption expenditures index, the Fed’s preferred inflation barometer), as well as the November jobs numbers.

On the Big Picture front, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said many countries will experience a “full-year recession” in 2023 as the global economy stagnates in the face of “persistently high inflation.”

In its latest interim economic outlook, the Paris-based agency cut its forecast for global growth next year to 2.3 percent, down from 2.8 percent previously, while warning that a dependency on expensive gas for heavy industry would plunge Germany, Italy and the UK into recession.

“As a consequence of the unexpected surge in prices, real wages are falling in many countries, slashing purchasing power.  This is hurting people everywhere,” OECD chief economist Alvaro Santo Pereira said.  “If inflation is not contained, these problems will only become worse.”

Headline consumer price inflation in major advanced economies is projected to moderate from 6.3% this year to around 4.25% in 2023 before falling back to 2.5% in 2024.

The United States is expected to see growth of 1.8% in 2022, 0.5% in 2023, and 1.0% in 2024.

The Euro area will grow 3.3% this year, 0.5% in 2023, and 1.4% in 2024, according to the OECD.

China will grow 3.3% in 2022, 4.6% in 2023 and 4.1% in 2024.

Lastly, workers at the largest U.S. rail union voted against a tentative contract deal reached in September, raising the possibility of a yearend strike that could cause significant damage to the U.S. economy and strand vital shipments of food and fuel.

Train and engine service members of the transportation division of the International Association of Sheet Metal, Air, Rail, and Transportation Workers (SMART-TD) narrowly voted to reject the deal.  That unit, which includes conductors, brakemen and other workers, joins three other unions in rejecting a compact brokered via a board appointed by President Biden.

“There’s a lot of anger about paid sick leave among the membership” who kept good flowing during the early days of the pandemic, said Seth Harris, a professor at Northeastern University.  Railroads have slashed labor and other costs to bolster profits and are fiercely opposed to adding sick time flexibility that would require them to hire more staff.  Those operators include Union Pacific, Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s BNSF and CSX, who say the contract deal has the most generous wage package in almost 50 years of national rail negotiations.

The railroads are under pressure to wrap up talks, with major U.S. industry groups complaining that rail industry cost cuts have hurt service.

A rail strike stoppage could freeze almost 30% of U.S. cargo shipments by weight, stoke inflation and cost the American economy as much as $2 billion per day by unleashing a cascade of transport woes affecting energy, agriculture, manufacturing, healthcare and retail sectors.  General Motors, for example, has said a halt would force it to stop production of some trucks within about a day.

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“President Biden took credit for avoiding a rail strike before the election, and he even needled us on Twitter for doubting him. Well, now workers are rejecting the new contract he pushed, and Congress may have to step in to head off a destructive strike….

“Union leaders have now missed their best chance to regain momentum for the deal after the rank and file of three other rail unions turned it down in recent weeks.  The heads of each union approved the labor agreement in September and pledged to sell it to their members.  But its rejection by four of the 12 voting bodies, including the largest, shows there’s still a big gap between workers’ demands and what the railroads are ready to offer.  A strike could begin Dec. 9 if no deal is reached, just in time for Christmas.

“Mr. Biden convened the parties before a previous deadline in September and lobbied union leaders to get on board.  Their quick buy-in delayed what could have been a midterm election disaster for Democrats and let Mr. Biden boast that he’d kept the trains ‘running on time.’  But his intervention rushed union leaders into an agreement some members were cool on, and foreclosed a chance for Congress to extend the bargaining period….

“Negotiations have resumed between carriers and union leaders, but the impasse is deep.  That raises the possibility that Congress may need to impose a deal and stop a strike….

“President Biden calls himself the best friend unions have ever had in the White House, and he’s certainly lavished enough money on public unions.  But apparently workers in the private economy aren’t feeling the same love, and maybe this time Mr. Biden should stay out of the way.”

Europe and Asia

We had the release of flash PMI readings for November in the eurozone (courtesy of S&P Global), with the EA19 comp at 47.8 (50 the dividing line between growth and contraction).  47.3 for manufacturing, 48.6 for services.

Germany: 46.7 mfg., 46.4 services
France: 49.1 mfg. 49.4 services

UK: 46.2 mfg., 48.8 services

So contraction all around.

Chris Williamson, chief economist, S&P Global Market Intelligence:

“A further fall in business activity in November adds to the chances of the eurozone economy slipping into recession. So far, the data for the fourth quarter are consistent with GDP contracting at a quarterly rate of just over 0.2%.

“However, the November PMI data also bring some tentative good news. In particular, the overall rate of decline has eased compared to October.  Most encouragingly, supply constraints are showing signs of easing, with supplier performance even improving in the region’s manufacturing heartland of Germany. Warm weather has also allayed some of the fears over energy shortages in the winter months.*

“Price pressures, the recent surge of which has prompted further policy tightening from the ECB, are also now showing signs of cooling, most noticeably in the manufacturing sector.  Not only should this help contain the cost-of-living crisis to some extent, but the brighter inflation outlook should take some pressure off the need for further aggressive policy tightening.

“However, it’s clear that manufacturing remains in a worryingly severe downturn, and service sector activity is also still under intense pressure, both largely as a result of the cost of living crisis and recent tightening of financial conditions.  A recession therefore looks likely, though the latest data provide hope that the scale of the downturn may not be as severe as previously feared.”

*Germany has done an outstanding job in preparing for the winter after the issues following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sparked fears of massive energy shortfalls.  I was watching BBC News and a segment on the country building an LNG terminal in less than 200 days, which is staggering. [Wilhelmshaven, Germany, specifically]

Of course, one or two severe cold snaps in Germany and across Europe can really change things on the energy front and what seem today to be ample supplies…the definition of which means no severe disruptions to industry, first and foremost.

Britain: New Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who took office a month ago on Oct. 25, has steadied the nation after the brief, chaotic term of predecessor Liz Truss.  In fact, his approval rating in an Ipsos poll is 47%...specifically, 47% “like” him, 41% dislike him, which is better than Boris Johnson was getting earlier in the year.

But, in the same survey, Sunak’s Conservative Party was liked by just 26%, and disliked by 62%, the worst figures for the party in 15 years.

While it’s not impossible for the Conservative Party to rebuild its popularity before the next election, due by the end of 2024, it won’t be easy.  Current polls suggest the Labour Party would roll if an election were held today.

The UK is entering a recession and consumers are having to make some tough choices, like finding their protein from eggs, not meat.

But eggs are in short supply, as reported by Bloomberg.  Such short supply that the large grocery stores are limiting shoppers to three boxes a customer.

It’s not just the war in Ukraine and the impact on prices for grains, fertilizer and energy, i.e., higher feed costs, but bird flu is wreaking havoc across wide stretches of both the U.S. and Europe.

One egg farmer interviewed by Bloomberg put it thusly: “We’re not making widgets for beer cans. We’ve got live animals creating a natural product.”  There’s no easy way to ramp up supply.  “The chicken lays what the chicken lays.”

Turning to Asia…no big economic data on the week for China, but it’s all about the uncertainty and confusion over Beijing’s Covid policies.  The International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday that the government should consider cutting interest rates and offer more fiscal support to vulnerable households as the country needs a solid domestic recovery next year to offset a deteriorating external environment.

And the country needs a “recalibration” of its zero-Covid strategy to bring the world’s second largest economy back on track, the IMF’s Gita Gopinath said.

In Japan, the flash PMI readings for November were released…49.4 on manufacturing vs. 50.7 prior, and 50.0 on services vs. 53.2.

Street Bytes

--The markets rose this week, the New York Stock Exchange closed Thursday, with a half day Friday, buoyed by the Fed minutes and a path to reduced rate hikes, and eventually a pause (though not a pivot!).  But Apple’s issue at the world’s largest iPhone factory in China had its shares falling 2% today, as it became clear many shoppers looking for Apple’s latest high-end phones returned empty handed on Black Friday.  More on this below.

For the week, the Dow Jones added 1.8% to 34347, with the S&P 500 gaining 1.5% and Nasdaq 0.8%.  The Dow is at a 7-month high, the S&P a 2 ½-month high.  The Dow is now down just 5.5% for the year, but the S&P is still off nearly 16% and Nasdaq 28%.

--U.S. Treasury Yields

6-mo. 4.67%  2-yr. 4.45%  10-yr. 3.68%  30-yr. 3.73%

The 10-year is at its lowest weekly close in two months on the more dovish tone coming from the Fed, which I’d argue is not necessarily warranted.

--Oil rose on Tuesday after Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ said it was sticking with output cuts and could take further steps to balance the market, outweighing global recession fears and concerns about China’s rising Covid-19 case numbers.  Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman on Monday denied a Wall Street Journal report that said OPEC was considering boosting output which sent prices plunging by more than 5%.

OPEC, Russia and other allies (OPEC+) meet on Dec. 4, a day before the start of European and G7 measures in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which could support the market.  On Dec. 5, a European Union ban on Russian crude imports is set to start, as is a G7 plan that will allow shipping services providers to help to export Russian oil, but only at reduced prices.

The risk to a price cap policy is Russian retaliation.  And oil prices edged lower on Thursday, hovering around two-month lows as the level of the proposed G7 cap on the price of Russian oil raised doubts about how much it would limit supply. Some Indian refiners are paying the equivalent to a discount of around $25 to $35 a barrel to international benchmark Brent crude for Russian Urals crude, according to reports.

A bigger-than-expected build in U.S. gasoline inventories and the widening Covid-19 controls in China also added to downward pressure on prices. Oil, as measured by West Texas Intermediate, closed the week at $76.55, the lowest weekly close since 12/31/21, or of the year.

--In an otherwise light week for news, the big story was the return of Bob Iger to Disney, as Bob Chapek was fired, months after receiving a new three-year contract.

The bombshell statement was issued from the company Sunday night that Chapek had stepped down, with predecessor Iger returning to lead Disney immediately.

The final blow was a dismal last earnings report and the Board decided to act.  Disney’s direct-to-consumer segment, which includes its streaming services, posted a $1.5 billion loss as investment in content outpaced revenue growth.  Its theme park business, which was meant to save the day, also disappointed as margins were squeezed by inflation.  And that’s before a potential recession.

To make matters worse, activist investors have been circling in recent months.

Iger is coming in to make changes, and probably big ones.  The status quo won’t cut it.

The streaming platform that Iger launched in 2019 as one of his final moves as CEO in 2019 needs major surgery, despite recently surpassing Netflix on subscriber numbers.  Chapek had talked recently of it being profitable by 2024, but that the target could be delayed further by an economic downturn.

Calls for Disney to spin off ESPN could also resurface.

Iger, 71, spent more than four decades at Disney, including 15 years as its CEO.  During his time from 2005 to 2020, the company acquired Pixar, Marvel and Lucasfilm, and launched Disney+.  Over his tenure, Disney’s market cap grew from $48 billion to $257 billion.  Today it’s $176 bn.

Chapek, 62, is leaving immediately.

“Mr. Iger has agreed to serve as Disney’s CEO for two years, with a mandate from the Board to set the strategic direction for renewed growth and to work closely with the Board in developing a successor to lead the Company at the completion of his term,” a statement from Susan Arnold, chairman of the board, read.

“The Board has concluded that as Disney embarks on an increasingly complex period of industry transformation, Bob Iger is uniquely situated to lead the company through this pivotal period.”

The shares rallied big on the news and then fell off and are roughly where they were in 2014.  The success of Disney’s Marvel acquisition, the popularity of its Disney+ streaming service and the overall love of the company from consumers and creators has not resulted in outstanding returns for shareholders.

Iger and Chapek were feuding much of 2021 with Chapek feeling that Iger’s long shadow and extended farewell (he remained as executive chairman until December) was not allowing him to run the company as he saw fit, according to reports.

--Shares in Deere & Co. surged 5% on Wednesday as the company reported better-than-expected fiscal fourth-quarter results as price increases lifted sales, while the company provided an upbeat outlook for the ongoing financial year.

The agriculture and construction equipment manufacturer’s earnings came in at $7.44 a share, jumping from $4.12 the year before and beating consensus of $7.10.  Net sales for the quarter ended Oct. 30 advanced to $14.35 billion from $10.28 billion, handily topping the Street’s view of $13.46 billion.

“Deere’s strong performance for both the fourth quarter and full year is a tribute to our dedicated team of employees, dealers, and suppliers throughout the world,” CEO John May said in a statement.  “We’re proud of their extraordinary efforts to overcome supply-chain constraints, increase factory production, and deliver products to our customers.”

Sales of production and precision agriculture equipment soared 59% to $7.43 billion, while small agriculture and turf equipment sales gained 26% to $3.54 billion and revenue in construction and forestry rose 20% to $3.37 billion.

For fiscal 2023, the manufacturer anticipates net income to be in a range of $8 billion to $8.5 billion versus the Street’s forecast of $7.86 billion.  The company’s profit of $7.13 billion for the 2022 fiscal year was up 20% on an annual basis.

“Deere is looking forward to another strong year in 2023 based on positive farm fundamentals and fleet dynamics as well as an increased investment in infrastructure,” according to May.  “These factors are expected to support healthy demand for our equipment.”

--Best Buy’s fiscal third-quarter results surpassed Wall Street’s expectations, prompting the electronics retailer to offer an upbeat full-year comparable sales outlook as it gears up for the upcoming holiday season.

Adjusted earnings came in at $1.38 a share for the quarter ended Oct. 29, down from $2.08 the year before, but higher than consensus of $1.02. Net income was $277 million vs $499 million a year earlier.

Revenue declined to $10.59 billion from $11.91 billion, but topped the Street’s view for $10.3 billion.  The stock soared 13% in response.

Comparable sales dropped 10% in the most recent quarter, although that was better than forecast.  Domestic revenue tumbled 11% to $9.8 billion while international operations slumped 15% to $787 million.

“Throughout the quarter, we were committed to balancing our near-term response to current conditions and managing well what is in our control, while also advancing our strategic initiatives and investing in areas important for our long-term growth,” CEO Corie Bary said in a statement.  “As a result, we delivered Q3 results ahead of our expectations coming into the quarter.”

Inventories at the end of the third quarter were down 15% from a year ago.

“We have strategically and effectively managed our inventory flow based on a shopping pattern that we believe looks more similar to historical holiday periods, with customer shopping activity concentrated on Black Friday week, Cyber Monday and the two weeks leading up to Dec. 25,” Bary said.

For fiscal 2023, Best Buy now expects comp sales to decrease by about 10%.  Expectations for the fourth quarter remain unchanged.

Best Buy’s sales during the depths of the pandemic were fueled by oversized spending from shoppers who splurged on gadgets to help them work from home or help their children with virtual learning.  Government stimulus checks fueled a lot of that spending.

The company acknowledged that 2022 would be a more difficult year from the start and soaring inflation has made it even tougher as Americans take more items deemed unessential off their shopping lists.

--Dick’s Sporting Goods on Tuesday lifted its earnings outlook for the fiscal year and expects a smaller decline in comparable sales, as third-quarter results topped analysts’ estimates.  Like with Best Buy, the shares surged 10% in response.

The sports retailer now anticipates adjusted per-share earnings to be between $11.50 and $12.10 for fiscal 2022, up from the prior $10 to $12 range and compared with consensus of $11.50.  Comparable sales are seen dropping by 1.5% to 3% vs. the previous forecast of a 2% to 6% decrease.

“Dick’s is a growth company, and our Q3 sales results are powerful evidence of our sustainable growth story,” CEO Lauren Hobart said in a statement.  “Because of our continued strong performance, quality of inventory and the confidence we have in our business, we are raising our full-year 2022 outlook.”

For the three months ended Oct. 29, adjusted EPS fell to $2.60 from $3.19, but better than the Street’s forecast of $2.26.  Revenue advanced 7.7% to $2.96 billion, also better than estimates. Comp sales jumped 6.5%, beating the 1.7% decrease modeled by analysts.

But as we approach the holiday season, retailers face uncertainties as high food and fuel prices weigh on consumer spending and sentiment.  Target last week said it’s planning for a “wide range of sales outcomes due to negative trends that persisted into November.”

--The Wall Street Journal ranked the Best (and Worst) Large U.S. Airports….

1. San Francisco
2. Atlanta
3. Minneapolis
4. Detroit
5. Phoenix

18. Fort Lauderdale
19. New York JFK
20. Newark…us locals are so proud to be at the bottom, year after year

--More than 2.45 million passengers passed through U.S. airport checkpoints on Wednesday, 6% higher than the same day in 2021, and just shy of the 2.6 million passengers who traveled in 2019.

Sunday is historically the busiest day of the holiday season and the 2.9 million people traveling on the Sunday after Thanksgiving in 2019, remains a TSA record.

Wednesday, the weather cooperated across the country with minimal cancellations (just 60 flights, and 61 Tuesday), compared to 39,000 last January.

--TSA checkpoint numbers vs. 2019

11/24…88 percent of 2019 levels
11/23…94
11/22…94
11/21…100
11/20…100
11/19…98
11/18…96
11/17…95

--Hundreds of workers at Apple Inc.’s main iPhone-making plant in China clashed with security personnel, as tensions boiled over after almost a month under tough restrictions intended to quash a Covid outbreak.

Workers at the Zhengzhou Foxconn Technology Group plant streamed out of dormitories in the early hours of Wednesday, jostling and pushing past the white-clad guards they vastly outnumbered, according to videos sent by a witness to portions of the protest.  Several white-suited people pummeled a person lying on the ground with sticks in another clip.  Onlookers yelled “fight, fight!” as throngs of people forced their way past barricades.  Several surrounded a police car and rocked it while screaming incoherently.

Just imagine the quarantine conditions they have been working and living under.  But a Foxconn spokesperson said the campus was operating normally by Wednesday evening and that the company was working to resolve worker complains.  Apple said in a statement it has staff at the Zhengzhou site and is working closely with Foxconn to ensure the employees’ concerns are addressed.

Foxconn has offered a 10,000 yuan payment, equivalent to $1,400 to newly recruited workers who wanted to leave their jobs and return home after working in unbearable conditions.  The fee covers their salaries, transport and quarantine fees.

The latest worker exodus adds to pressures on Apple’s iPhone 14 production, with shipments of the high-end iPhone models lower than expected because of disruptions at the plant from the recent Covid-19 outbreak.

The production disruptions linked to China’s Covid policies have prompted Apple to look to boost capacity outside of China, particularly in India and Vietnam.

I’ve been the boy crying wolf on Apple and China for literally over a decade, long before Covid mucked things up.  After ripping off Apple’s (and others) technology, Chinese smartphones are just as good and far cheaper.  President Xi can play the nationalism card at any moment should tensions with the United States rise further.

--FTX creditors, including rich investors who don’t want their names made public, can remain anonymous and still participate in the company’s bankruptcy case for now, U.S. Bankruptcy Judge John Dorsey allowed as proceedings began Tuesday in Delaware.  The 50 biggest unsecured creditors owed a total of $3.1 billion. Normally U.S. Bankruptcy Code requires the names to be filed in documents available to the public.  Representatives for FTX argued those creditors are also customers and disclosure would allow rivals to steal their business.

The hearing began with FTX attorney James Bromley saying a “substantial amount” of the group’s assets “have either been stolen or are missing,” Bromley vowing to cast a wide net to secure potentially billions of dollars in funds that passed through the firm he called the “personal fiefdom” of co-founder Sam Bankman-Fried.

“FTX was in the control of inexperienced and unsophisticated individuals, and some or all of them were compromised individuals,” said Bromley, who represents FTX’s new management.

Management is just beginning to take stock of how much FTX lost under Bankman-Fried on risky trading bets, and it has assembled a team of investigators to lead a global hunt for money that left FTX before it failed.

Customers’ funds on the exchange are frozen.  The size of the gap between FTX’s obligations to its customers and available assets it could use to help pay them still isn’t known, with Bromley saying the number of individual and institutional customers is in the millions.

FTX has been the target of continuous cyberattacks since it filed bankruptcy, which is complicating matters, Bromley said.

Meanwhile, Tom Brady, Steph Curry, Larry David and other celebrities are now part of an investigation by a Texas regulator for potential securities law violations tied to their promotions of FTX.

The Texas State Securities Board is scrutinizing payments received by the celebrities to endorse FTX US, along with what disclosures were made and how accessible they were to retail investors.

While scrutiny from state-level financial authorities is usually less high-profile than an SEC investigation, it can lead to significant fines.  And federal watchdogs often work with the states on such cases.

“A lawsuit against celebrities will generate a ton of money, because they will all settle,” said John Reed Stark, former chief of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s Office of Internet Enforcement.  “It’s one thing to make your fans buy your T-shirt with your face on it.  It’s another to tout something that causes them to lose their life savings.”

And how about the revelation that one of FTX’s units spent $300 million on Bahamas real estate, attorneys for the firm said Tuesday.  The properties are mostly luxury beachfront homes, and seven condominiums in an expensive community called Albany.  The Albany condos cost almost $72 million.  Another property where SBF’s Stanford law professor parents were signatories was rumored to be worth $121 million.  [Google Old Fort Bay for a look at some properties for sale…it’s not out of the question.]

Separately, two Estonian citizens were arrested in Tallinn, Estonia, on an 18-count indictment for their alleged involvement in a $575 million cryptocurrency fraud and money laundering conspiracy, the U.S. Justice Department said on Monday.  The two, both 37, allegedly defrauded hundreds of thousands of victims through a multi-faceted scheme, wherein they induced them to enter fraudulent equipment rental contracts with the defendants’ cryptocurrency mining service called HashFlare.  They also made victims invest in a virtual currency bank called Polybius Bank, which in reality was not a bank and never paid out the promised dividends, the DOJ said.

The two used shell companies to launder the fraud proceeds and to purchase real estate and luxury cars, the department said.

--According to a Washington Post analysis, “More than a third of Twitter’s top 100 marketers have not advertised on the social media network in the past two weeks – an indication of the extent of skittishness among advertisers about billionaire Elon Musk’s control of the company.”

The Post examined data from Pathmatics, which offers brand analysis on digital marketing trends.

Ads for blue-chip brands including Jeep and Mars candy, whose corporate parents were among the top 100 U.S. advertisers on the site in the six months before Musk’s purchase, haven’t appeared there since at least Nov. 7, the analysis found.  Musk assumed ownership of the site Oct. 27.

Merck, Kellogg, Verizon and Samuel Adams brewer Boston Beer also have stopped their advertising in recent weeks.

Last year, nearly 90 percent of Twitter’s $5 billion in revenue came from advertising.  Meanwhile, Twitter recently laid off some employees in its sales division, continuing the mass exodus of employees at the company.

Separately, Musk reinstated Donald Trump’s account on Saturday, reversing a ban that has kept Trump off the platform since the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection.

Musk made the announcement after holding a poll that asked Twitter users to click “yes” or “no” on whether Trump’s account should be restored.  The “yes” vote won, with 51.8%.

“The people have spoken.  Trump will be reinstated. Vox Populi, Vox Dei,” Musk tweeted, using a Latin phrase meaning “the voice of the people, the voice of God.”

Trump for now said he was staying with Truth Social.

Lastly, Elon Musk said he would reinstate suspended accounts, bringing back users that previously had been banned for posting hate speech, inciting violence or engaging in other behavior that violated its policies.

Musk said the amnesty would begin next week, provided the accounts haven’t “broken the law or engaged in egregious spam.”

What a mess.  Last Sunday, Musk tweeted that he wouldn’t reinstate the account of conspiracy theorist Alex Jones.

After taking over Twitter, Musk said the company would be “forming a content moderation council with widely diverse viewpoints.”  He added: “No major content decisions or account reinstatements will happen before that council convenes.”

Musk hasn’t said publicly if the council has met or been established.

--HP Inc. reported fiscal Q4 diluted net earnings late Tuesday of $0.85 per share, down from $0.94 a year earlier. Consensus was $0.84.

Net revenue for the quarter was $14.80 billion, down from $16.68 billion a year ago and just a little above the Street’s view of $14.68 billion.

For fiscal 2023, the PC maker expects adjusted earnings of $3.20 to $3.60, below consensus of $3.62, as it expects softness in both consumer and commercial demand.

But the big news was the company said it planned to reduce its gross global headcount by about 4,000 to 6,000 employees by the end of fiscal 2025 as part of its restructuring plan.  HP estimates it will incur about $1.0 billion in labor and non-labor costs related to restructuring and other charges.

The restructuring comes at a time when most companies including Amazon.com, Facebook’s Meta Platforms and Cisco Systems are making deep cuts to their employee base to navigate a potential downturn in the economy.

HP forecast current-quarter profit between 70 and 80 cents, when analysts were expecting 86 cents.

Earlier on Monday, Dell reported a 6% decline in third-quarter revenue, with the company saying ongoing macroeconomic factors including inflation and rising interest rates would weigh on customers next year.

--Dollar Tree Inc. said on Thursday that its full-year profit would be at the lower end of its forecast, with the discount retailer’s margins under pressure from decades-high inflation.  Shares at the company, which has cut prices at its Family Dollar stores to sustain demand, fell 8 percent.

Dollar Tree (or $1.25 Tree as us customers call it after they raised prices) has been hit by slowing demand for everything from toys and party supplies to homeware, which are typically more profitable than food and other perishables.

DLTR is also grappling with higher freight costs and the price cuts at Family Dollar that were rolled out in the second quarter.

Dollar Tree now expects annual profit at the lower half of its previously estimated range of $7.10 per share to $7.40 per share.  The company raised its forecast for fiscal 2022 net sales.  Same-store sales rose 6.5% in the third quarter, beating estimates, but it was the lowered profit outlook that dragged down the shares.

--After two years of regulatory scrutiny and $hundreds of millions in expenses, Penguin Random House’s deal to buy Simon & Schuster officially collapsed on Monday, thus ending an attempt by the largest publisher in the U.S. to become even larger.

The implosion of the deal came three weeks after a federal judge ruled against Penguin Random House in an antitrust trial, on the grounds that the merger would be bad for competition and harmful to authors.

Paramount Global, parent company of Simon & Schuster, declined to extend the purchase agreement, which would have allowed Penguin Random House to appeal the decision.

There are five big publishing houses – Penguin Random House, HarperCollins, Macmillan, Hachette and Simon & Schuster – who have gotten larger by buying small and midsize publishing houses.  Reducing the number to four gives authors and agents fewer buyers for their books.

--Budweiser said it would take some of the beer it originally planned to sell during the World Cup before a surprising last second ban on sales of alcohol during soccer’s biggest tournament and give it to the nation that wins the title.

“We will host the ultimate championship celebration for the winning country.  Because, for the winning fans, they’ve taken the world.”

No doubt, Budweiser has a surplus.

Drinking alcohol in Muslim Qatar is not illegal, but the country has rules that severely limit its widespread use.

Qatar does not permit its people to drink alcohol in public, let alone be drunk in public.  Bars and hotels that have been allowed to sell alcohol obtain specific licenses to do so.

Foreign Affairs, Part II

China: Just days after President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping held talks on Monday, Defense Secretary Austin, speaking at the aforementioned security forum in Canada, said that Beijing, like Moscow, sought “a world where might makes right.”

Austin said Chinese aircraft were flying near self-ruled Taiwan in record numbers almost daily, while the number of what he called “dangerous intercepts” by China of U.S. or allied forces at sea or in the air were increasing.  Tensions between Taipei and Beijing have risen since China staged war games near the island in August after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit.

Austin said the United States was drawing on the lessons of Ukraine to “bolster the self-defense capabilities of our Indo-Pacific partners… We’re helping them to become more agile and resilient.”

On the coronavirus front….

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“Remember when China’s handling of Covid-19 was supposed to be a global model?  Western public-health sages looked fondly on Beijing’s zero-Covid policy as an alternative to America’s messy democratic decision to live with the virus after the disastrous initial lockdowns. Well, so much for that.

“As the third anniversary of the Covid outbreak nears, China is reporting record infections.  The daily highs are surpassing April’s surge in Shanghai, which shut down for two months. Outbreaks are occurring across China, and cities are again imposing lockdowns. Nomura, the Japanese brokerage, estimates that more than a fifth of the country is under restricted movement.

“The latest breakout was inevitable in a large continental nation given the increasing transmissibility of the virus as it mutates.  China’s particular problem is that its draconian zero-Covid policy has left its people less protected with either vaccine or natural immunity. For nationalist reasons, the Communist Party refused to accept Western vaccines that are more effective than China’s homegrown shots.  Long lockdowns mean fewer people have been exposed to the virus and developed natural immunity as they have in the rest of the world.

“China’s aging population is especially vulnerable, since the country lacks the hospital capacity and ICU beds to deal with widespread serious illness.  By one estimate a full reopening could lead to 5.8 million intensive-care admissions in a country with fewer than four ICU beds per 100,000 people.  …

“President Xi Jinping’s other problem is political.  An authoritarian regime can always do what it does best – surveil, coerce, lock down.  But it lacks a mechanism to gain public support for the pain that could accompany the abandonment of zero-Covid. Democracies, for all their cacophony, have more flexibility to change policies and adapt when the public sees that the facts require it….

“China’s Covid and economic struggles may explain in part China’s recent less belligerent appearance on the global stage.  But the U.S. can’t assume that will continue. The larger lesson of China’s Covid reckoning is that lockdowns don’t work, and authoritarian regimes aren’t models of public health or anything else that too many Americans imagine them to be.”

North Korea: The United States on Monday called for a United Nations Security Council presidential statement to hold North Korea accountable over its missile tests after Pyongyang launched an intercontinental ballistic missile last week capable of reaching the U.S. mainland.

The U.S. ambassador to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield said it was vital for the 15-member Security Council to respond with one voice and reiterated U.S. charges that China and Russia were “emboldening” Pyongyang by blocking council action.

“These two members’ blatant obstructionism puts the Northeast Asian region, and entire world, at risk,” she told a Security Council meeting. “We will offer another opportunity for the Council to hold the DPRK accountable for its dangerous rhetoric and its destabilizing actions.  The United States will be proposing a Presidential Statement to this end,” she said referring to North Korea by the initials of its official name.

State media reported last Saturday that Kim Jong Un boasted that the ICBM that was tested is another “reliable and maximum-capacity” weapon to contain U.S. military threats.

The North’s Korean Central News Agency said Kim oversaw the launch of the Hwasong-17 missile, with KCNA saying Kim observed the launch with his wife Ri Sol Ju and their “beloved daughter” as well as senior officials.  State media photos showed Kim walking hand-in-hand with the daughter, the first time for North Korea to publish a photo of her.  South Korean media has reported Kim has three children, born in 2010, 2013 and 2017.  It wasn’t immediately known which child he took to the launch site, but it looked like his eldest, though some seem to think it was the middle child, the supposed 9-year-old.  I just thought she looked more than nine…and a spitting image of her father!  [I will stop further commentary on the kid here as it could cost me my life.]

Iran: Tehran is enriching uranium to up to 60% purity, close to weapons grade, underground for the first time at its Fordow plant, the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed on Tuesday, adding that Iran plans to further expand its enrichment at Fordow and Natanz.

Mohammad Eslami, Iran’s nuclear chief, said “Iran will seriously react to any resolution and political pressure…that is why Iran has started enriching uranium to 60% purity from Monday at the Fordow site.”

It is relatively easy to go from 60% purity to the roughly 90% needed for weapons-grade material.  The hard part is getting to 60%.  But Iran has installed cascades of more efficient advanced centrifuges since Donald Trump ditched the 2015 nuclear pact in 2018, and it resumed enrichment at Fordow, which was barred under the deal.

Meanwhile, protests raged on at Iranian universities and in some cities as Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned the country’s “enemies” may try to mobilize workers after failing to topple the Islamic government in more than two months of unrest.

“Until this hour, thank God, the enemies have been defeated. But the enemies have a new trick every day, and with today’s defeat, they may target different classes such as workers and women,” state television quoted Khamenei as saying.

Activist news agency HRANA said as of last weekend, 402 protesters had been killed in the unrest since the death in police custody of Kurdish-Iranian woman Mahsa Amini in September, including 58 minors.  Some 54 members of the security forces have been killed, it added.  More than 16,800 people have been arrested.

Turkey: For at least the third time this year, Turkish President Erdogan said he’s about to order a new military ground operation inside neighboring Syria, Erdogan repeating the broad plan again Tuesday, promising to use Ankara’s “tanks, artillery, and soldiers” to kill Kurdish militants along Syria’s northern border with Turkey.  But he has yet to do so.

Russia has asked Turkey to refrain from a full-scale ground offensive in Syria.

Turkey did launch airstrikes against the Kurdish YPG militia in Syria, killing scores in retaliation for the Nov. 13 bombing in Istanbul that Ankara accuses the Kurds of carrying off.  But the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) has denied involvement.  The Turks say the YPG is a wing of the PKK, which Turkey, the United States and others deem a terrorist group.

David Ignatius / Washington Post

“Turkey’s fixation on alleged Kurdish terrorism reached a dangerous flash point this week, as Turkish warplanes bombed targets in northern Syria that are perilously close to U.S. forces there guarding against a resurgence of the Islamic State.

“The danger of this latest spasm of Turkish reprisal attacks was described to me on Wednesday by Gen. Mazloum Kobane Abdi, commander of the Syrian Kurdish militia known as the Syrian Democracy Forces or SDF.  He said that after three days of Turkish bombing, the SDF could lose its ability to maintain security at prisons and a refugee camp for ISIS fighters and their families.

“ ‘These strikes have already placed the ISIS mission at risk,’ said Col. Joseph Buccino, spokesman for U.S. Central Command, which oversees the region.  ‘One of the strikes hit within 130 meters of U.S. personnel, so American forces are at risk. Any extension of these attacks will drive up that risk,’ Buccino told me in an email.

“Mazloum, as he is known, said that an hour before our conversation, a Turkish drone had fired on the SDF security post at the al-Hol refugee camp, which houses families of Islamic State fighters.  He said he didn’t know whether any of the residents of the camp escaped, because a Turkish drone was still loitering over the camp, and it was impossible for U.S. and SDF forces there to survey the damage safely.”

The SDF is maintaining security at 28 makeshift prisons in northern Syria where about 12,000 captured ISIS fighters are housed.  After a January prison break at the Hasakah prison, more than 3,000 of these detainees escaped, and it took more than a week to capture most of them and regain control.

Ignatius:

“Turkey’s rationale for attacking the Syrian Kurds is its claim that the SDF, and Mazloum personally, are affiliated with the militant Kurdish militia known as the PKK, which they contend was responsible for a Nov. 13 terrorist bombing in Istanbul.  Mazloum told me his forces had no involvement in the attack and had expressed sympathy for the victims….and that he had been working closely with U.S. and coalition forces for more than eight years….

“Mazloum said that he expects Turkey to soon begin a ground assault in northern Syria, seeking greater control of Manbij and Kobani, two areas liberated from ISIS by the United States and its SDF partners at great cost.  He said that the United States has an ‘ethical responsibility to protect the Kurds from being ethnically cleansed from this region.’ He urged U.S. officials to pressure Turkey to de-escalate its attacks before there is a disaster.

“Gen. Mark A. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, spoke on Wednesday with his Turkish counterpart and warned the Turks against attacking restricted zones around U.S. troops.  But a Pentagon official said there was ‘no sign that [the Turks] are ready to de-escalate.’  As the Turkish military assault in northern Syria begins to destabilize the U.S.-led coalition’s fragile control over the murderous remnants of the Islamic State, a reasonable person begins to wonder: What kind of an ally is this?”

Brazil: The head of Brazil’s electoral authority has rejected the request from President Jair Bolsonaro’s political party to annul ballots cast on most electronic voting machines, which would have overturned the Oct. 30 election.

The Oct. 30 presidential runoff was won by Bolsonaro’s nemesis, leftist former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

Alexandres de Moraes, head of the electoral authority, wrote in his decision: “The complete bad faith of the plaintiff’s bizarre and illicit request…was proven, both by the refusal to add to the initial petition and the total absence of any evidence of irregularities and the existence of a totally fraudulent narrative of the facts.”

On Tuesday, a lawyer for Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party, Marcelo de Bessa, filed a 33-page request on behalf of the president and the party’s president, Valdemar Costa, citing a software bug in the majority of Brazil’s machines – which meant they lacked individual identification numbers in their internal logs – to argue that all the votes they recorded should be nullified.  De Bessa said that doing so would leave Bolsonaro with 51% of the remaining valid votes.

Sound familiar?  Recall, Bolsonaro has emulated Donald Trump virtually every step of the way and this move was totally expected.

Presidential approval ratings….

Gallup: 40% approve of President Biden’s job performance, 56% disapprove; 39% of independents approve (Oct. 3-20).

Rasmussen: 44% approve of Biden’s performance, 54% disapprove (Nov. 23).

Trump World

--The Supreme Court on Tuesday cleared the way for a congressional committee to examine Donald Trump’s tax returns, denying without comment the former president’s last-ditch effort to extend a legal battle that has consumed Congress and the courts for years.

The justices’ brief order means that the Treasury Department may quickly hand over six years of tax records from Trump and some of his companies to the House Ways and Means Committee.

There were no recorded dissents and the court did not state a reason for denying Trump’s request to withhold the records.

Of course this Congress has only a few days left on its legislative calendar, and not enough time to draft or pass legislation that might improve the presidential audit process.

On the other hand, there could be embarrassing information that could potentially hurt Trump’s 2024 run for the presidency.

--Judges on an Atlanta-based federal appeals court signaled sympathy on Tuesday toward the U.S. Justice Department’s bid to reverse the appointment of an independent arbiter to vet documents seized by the FBI from Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home as they posed tough questions to the former president’s lawyer.

A three-judge panel of the 11th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals heard arguments in the department’s challenge to a judge’s September appointment of a “special master” to review the documents and consider whether some should be walled off from an ongoing criminal investigation.  The department is also seeking access to all seized documents.

Attorney General Merrick Garland last Friday named a special counsel, Jack Smith, to take over the investigation into Trump’s possession of government documents after leaving office last year.

--William Barr / New York Post

“During the Republican primaries in 2016, I supported, in succession, every alternative to Donald Trump.  I did not see him as our party’s standard-bearer.  He was not my idea of a president.  I could see that he was grossly self-centered, lacked self-control, and almost always took his natural pugnacity too far. While he could be compelling, I found myself cringing at his frequently juvenile, bombastic, and petulant style.

“I also saw Trump’s strengths.  I liked the clear and direct way he staked out a position and his willingness to state unpleasant truths that many were afraid to say.  I appreciated that he was willing to confront head-on difficult issues – like unfair trade deals, or our allies’ paltry defense spending – that other politicians dodged.  Above all, Trump had accurately diagnosed, and given voice to, the deep frustration of many middle-class and working-class Americans who were fed up with the excesses of progressive Democrats; the shameless partisanship of the mainstream media; and the smug condescension of elites who had mismanaged the country, sold them out, and appeared content to preside over the decline of America.

“But it is now clear he lacks the qualities essential to achieving the kind of unity and broad election victory in 2024 so necessary if we are to right our listing republic. It is time for new leadership….

“Unfortunately, after he was elected, Trump brought his wrecking-ball style to the task of governing the nation. He did not temper his disruptiveness and penchant for chaos.  While his basic policy judgments were usually sound, his impulsiveness meant that things were almost always about to fly off the rails. When he became fixated on bad ideas or wanted to take things too far, it took his senior staff and cabinet secretaries an ungodly amount of maneuvering to keep him on track.

“Take his handling of Covid.  The pandemic was not necessarily fatal to Trump’s re-election chances.  What hurt Trump was not the substance of his decisions, but his tonal response. His behavior reinforced what many people found repellant about his personality.  He yielded to his impulse for pettiness and pointless nastiness; got drawn into infantile name-calling spats; and, in his press conferences, made everything about himself.

“Nonetheless, Trump has every reason to be proud of his administration’s substantive achievements. Among other things, his tax reform and deregulatory efforts generated the strongest and most resilient economy in American history* - one that brought unprecedented progress to many marginalized Americans. He had begun to restore U.S. military strength by increasing spending on new-generation weapons, advanced technology, and force readiness.”

*I am so sick of this description…particularly from Donald Trump during his rallies.  I have laid out the facts ad nauseam.  In the only two years you can really grade Trump, post-tax cuts and pre-Covid, 2018 and 2019, the U.S. economy grew 2.9% and 2.3%.  Not the 4% to 5% that Trump shill Larry Kudlow said would be the case if the tax cuts were enacted, not even 3.5%.  The corporate tax cut was greatly needed. The personal income tax cut was not and exploded the deficit, pre-Covid. 

And let’s look at the Black unemployment rate.  When Donald Trump took office in Jan. 2017, it was 7.5% and coming down rapidly.  By Sept. 2019 it was 5.4%, rightfully touted by the administration, but then up to 6.3% January 2020, pre-Covid!  Today it is 5.9%.  Just facts.  Sorry if that bothers you.

William Barr continues:

“He correctly identified the economic, technological, and military threats to the United States posed by China’s aggressive policies.  By brokering historic peace deals in the Mideast, he achieved what most thought impossible. He had the courage to pull us out of ill-advised and detrimental agreements with Iran and Russia. And he fulfilled America’s long-delayed promise to move its Israeli embassy to Jerusalem.

“If Trump had run his re-election campaign on that platform, and dialed his churlishness back just a little, he would have won. But he lost because he insisted on running a base-only campaign.

“Despite the persistent advice from his advisers that he address the loss of support in the suburbs, he focused almost exclusively on energizing his base, and he did this by putting out a steady diet of red meat designed to arouse the passions of those who already supported him. The theory was that this would lead to such a massive turnout of his supporters that it would swamp whatever his feeble opponent could generate.

“There were two basic problems with this strategy. First, Trump’s base did not need to be whipped up, they were already galvanized. Second, Trump pandered to his base in a way that reinforced and intensified the alienation of many suburban voters in the battleground states.

“As a result of this strategy, Trump succeeded in driving a record turnout of his own supporters.  But he also generated a more massive turnout for Joe Biden… They did not come to vote for Biden; they came to vote against Trump.

“Fraud did not prevent Trump’s second term.  Trump himself was the reason….

“During the four years leading up to the 1980 election, (Ronald) Reagan pursued party unity with single-minded determination. He succeeded in uniting a GOP that was far more fractious than today’s party.  Reagan understood that the purpose of a political party is winning elections.  That requires building the broadest coalition possible compatible with the party’s core goals.

“It is painfully clear from his track record in both the 2020 election and the 2022 midterms that Donald Trump is neither capable of forging this winning coalition nor delivering the decisive and durable victory required.  Indeed, among the current crop of potential nominees, Trump is the person least able to unite the party and the one most likely to lose the general election….

“It seems to me that Trump isn’t really interested in broadening his appeal. Instead he is content to focus on intensifying his personal hold over a faction within the party – a group that is probably no larger than a quarter of the GOP, but which allows Trump to use it as leverage to extort and bully the rest of the party into submission.

“The threat is simple: Unless the rest of the party goes along with him, he will burn the whole house down by leading ‘his people’ out of the GOP.

“Trump’s willingness to destroy the party if he does not get his way is not based on principle, but on his own supreme narcissism.  His egoism makes him unable to think of a political party as anything but an extension of himself – a cult of personality.

“Trump is due credit for stopping progressives’ momentum and achieving important policy successes during his administration.  But he does not have the qualities required to win the kind of broad, durable victory I see as necessary to restore America.  It is time for the 45th president to step aside.”

--At the Republican Jewish Coalition meeting in Las Vegas last weekend, on Saturday, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis portrayed his record in Florida as a blueprint for the U.S. as some Republicans see him as an alternative to Donald Trump.

DeSantis didn’t mention the 2024 presidential race he will no doubt enter, but he detailed the extent of his landslide re-election victory on Nov. 8 and his record that includes fighting coronavirus restrictions and so-called “woke” ideology.

“When you stand up for what’s right, when you show people you’re willing to fight for them, they will walk over broken glass barefoot to come vote for you,” DeSantis said, drawing a standing ovation.  “You can be strong, you can get things done, and you can attract a huge, huge coalition.”

Trump, going first and with an address via video link, also drew a standing ovation, saying that the GOP is “a much bigger, more powerful party than it was before I got there.”

But other speakers said it was time to move on.

“We keep losing and losing and losing, and the fact of the matter is the reason we’re losing is because Donald Trump has put himself before everybody else,” former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie said in his speech that drew an enthusiastic reception.

Christie called for the GOP to “get our house in order” by not being afraid to stand up to the former president and “against the lies, to stand up against the pettiness, to stand up against the self-interest.”

--Maureen Dowd / New York Times, on Trump’s speech announcing he was running in 2024.

“In a Maryland suburb I covered long ago, a fire chief and his deputy were accused of arson. ‘Firefighter arson’ is actually a term, with its own Wikipedia entry, because it happens more often than you might think.

“That’s what Trump sounded like, in his announcement speech, when he said he would ‘bring back honesty, confidence, and trust in our elections.’  The arsonist seeking a job as a firefighter. He is the liar and con man who undermined confidence in our elections.  All that baloney about rigged voting has only hurt Republican participation and swung independents and even some Republicans who were sick of Trump to Democrats. But he doesn’t care, so long as he can deflect the blame for his loss.

“ ‘As I have said before, the gravest threats to our civilization are not from abroad, but from within,’ Trump said in his flaccid, whiny announcement Tuesday night at Mar-a-Lago.

“That is actually true, but only because Trump exploited every dark division and base impulse he could find. He would rather blow up our democracy than admit he’s a loser, and that makes him a traitor.

“Trump flaunts his faux Macho Macho Man rhetoric.  For decades, Republicans have lectured Americans to quit embracing victimhood and stand on their own two feet, and here’s their leader announcing his presidency on a platform of Woe is me!  Quit picking on me!  Elect me because I’m a fall guy!

“ ‘I will tell you I’m a victim,’ Trump said to a less-than-festive gathering where Melania seemed like a hostage and Ivanka was a no-show.

“His vision was not exactly uplifting: ‘We will be attacked.  We will be slandered. We will be persecuted just as I have been.’  It made ‘American carnage’ seem like ‘Roman Holiday.’

“Trump’s martyrdom extends to his life with Melania in an oceanside resort, which he said, ‘hasn’t been the easiest thing.’

“ ‘I go home,’ he said, ‘and she says, ‘You look angry and upset.’  I say, ‘Just leave me alone.’’ Fun couple!

“It wasn’t really an announcement so much as another Trump scam to fend off prosecutions and to keep raising money from his supporters.

“Trump is no victim. He creates victims. Trump is the first former president subjected to a special counsel investigation into whether he masterminded a coup attempt.

“That’s mind-blowing, especially since he’s running for president again.”

Biden…will he or won’t he…

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“As he turns 80 years old on Sunday, President Biden the man of Catholic faith might be reflecting on a few lines from the Psalmist. ‘The days of our years are threescore years and ten,’ as the King James puts it, unless ‘by reason of strength they be fourscore years.’ Fellow partakers of human frailty should give thanks for modern medicine, as well as Mr. Biden’s continued health.

“Yet what Mr. Biden needs to ask himself, and preferably soon, is whether two years from today he will really want ‘four more years,’ as the crowds would chant in 2024.  Not to be rude, but the job of President of the United States is not exactly an early bird special at Denny’s.  On his first day in the Oval Office, Mr. Biden set the record for the oldest President in history. He’ll be 82 before the next inauguration. He’d be 86 at the end of a second term.

“During the 2020 campaign, questioning Mr. Biden’s age was treated as terrible media manners. This omerta has begun to break, however, and one new point of contrast is the end of gerontocracy in Democratic House leadership.  Speaker Nancy Pelosi, 82, says she’ll step down, as will her No. 2, Steny Hoyer, 83.  The next Democratic leader is likely to be 52-year-old Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, who doesn’t remember Sputnik like it was yesterday.

“So far the White House has ignored Mr. Biden’s age and pretended that 80 is the new 40.  ‘I can’t even keep up with him!’ press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre chirped this summer, as if enthusiasm could substitute for credibility. There are leaks, though, about aides who protect Mr. Biden’s weekends and worry his shuffling walk might cause him to trip. A doctor’s note last year explained, as only a doctor’s note could: ‘The President’s ambulatory gait is perceptibly stiffer and less fluid than it was a year or so ago.’

“Audiences hold their breath whenever Mr. Biden speaks.  ‘I want to thank the prime minister for Colombia’s leadership,’ he said last week in Cambodia.  Days earlier he mentioned Russian forces ‘pulling back from Fallujah,’ which was a flashback to the Iraq war.  Last month he said Democrats campaigning during 2018 ‘went to 54 states’ – which is two more states than even progressives want to create.

“Modern politicians practically live on TV, and they all goof, but that defense only goes so far. Barack Obama said in 2008 he’d campaigned ‘in 57 states.’  George W. Bush’s verbal slips are easy to misunderestimate. But Mr. Biden is obviously showing his age, and anyone who doubts it should watch 10 minutes of his aggressive 2012 vice presidential debate with Paul Ryan.

“During the 2020 campaign, Mr. Biden was protected by the media. Now he’s being protected by the White House.  But there is no way to shield a President when he sits down, one on one, with China’s Xi Jinping or Russia’s Vladimir Putin.  The world is entering a dangerous period, with rogues on the march.  ‘If I were just 80 years old,’ Jimmy Carter said at age 94, ‘I don’t believe I could undertake the duties I experienced when I was President.’

“Mr. Biden might think he has no choice but to run in 2024, because Donald Trump is doing it, and Democrats have no obviously popular successor.  In part that’s Mr. Biden’s fault.  He picked his Vice President for the wrong reasons, based on identity politics.  Kamala Harris’s approval rating is 40%, worse than Mr. Biden’s or Mr. Trump’s. If Mr. Biden opts to retire, the Democratic primary will probably be a free for all, with Ms. Harris merely one contender.

“But that would be politically healthy.  The GOP appears set in 2024 for a vigorous argument about whether Mr. Trump, who’s now 76, should get another shot at the White House.  Democrats need a similar debate about Mr. Biden.

“The 1960 election was a generational shift, when John F. Kennedy became the first President born in the 20th century.  Ditto for 1992, when the Boomers shoved aside their elders who’d lived through World War II and the Great Depression.  Maybe 2024 will be Gen X’s turn.  Gavin Newsom is 55. Ron DeSantis is 44.

“For all that has changed since the Psalmist, 80 is still old. Konrad Adenauer was West German chancellor until 87, but in unique circumstances, 1949-63. Two years from 2024, voters already are thinking about it.  In a recent poll, 68 percent say Mr. Biden might not be up to another term, and 86 percent think the presidential cutoff should be 75 or younger.  Mr. Biden is asking for political trouble if he ignores such numbers, and Democrats owe the country better than to try to coast with him into the sunset.”

---

--Seven were killed at a Walmart in Chesapeake, Va., including the shooter, who killed himself, which came after five were killed at a Colorado Springs nightclub, the shooter here stopped from further carnage by two heroes in attendance.  According to the Gun Violence Archive, there have been more than 600 mass shootings* in America so far this year.  By comparison, the U.S. experienced 690 mass shootings in 2021; 610 the year before that; and 417 in 2019.

*Four or more people wounded or killed in the incident.

--They wrapped up the COP27 climate talks in Egypt and it was a bust if you were looking for a deal that actually tackled emissions and rising temperatures. 

But for poorer island nations in particular, agreement was reached on the establishment of a fund for what negotiators call loss and damage. Recipients have long called for cash – reparations – because they are often the victims of worsened floods, droughts, heatwaves, famines and storms despite having contributed little to the pollution that heats up the globe.

So while the fund was set up, those looking for emissions cutting and the targeting of all fossil fuels for phase down and the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels came up empty.

--On the pandemic front, a Washington Post analysis found that more vaccinated people are now dying of Covid and 58 percent of the coronavirus deaths in August in the U.S. “were people who were vaccinated or boosted.”

It’s the first time since the beginning of the pandemic in early 2020 that a majority of Americans dying were at least partially vaccinated, according to an analysis of federal and state data.

This shouldn’t be a surprise, but I can just see the tens of millions saying, ‘I told you so…the vaccines aren’t effective.’

Wrong.  It’s almost solely about the waning efficacy of them and why you have to keep up with the shots.  I got Covid in October when my second booster had been back in April and I knew full well I needed a third booster but didn’t get around to it. 

At the same time, I didn’t get seriously ill, no doubt because of my prior four shots and perhaps some herd/community immunity.

It’s also a fact that “Covid deaths among people aged 65 and older more than doubled between April and July this year, rising by 125 percent,” according to the Kaiser Family Foundation.

If you are old like moi, especially, keep getting the boosters.

--Kerry Burke and Larry McShane of the New York Daily News had an extensive story on the Midtown South police precinct in Manhattan, home to Times Square and Penn Station, Madison Square Garden, and Grand Central Terminal.  The area, like much of New York, has seen substantial jumps in grand larceny, burglaries and robberies in the first 10 months of 2022.

“We’re repeating the ‘80s,” said Eddie Hassan, a local deli worker who lives just south of the Port Authority Bus Terminal.  “We could talk about it for days, but it’s the homeless and the drug dealers… After the pandemic, it definitely got worse.  People are wilding out here.”

Lifelong New Yorker George Rodriguez, 62, recounted some recent “face-offs in the street” with the drug addicts and homeless denizens of Hell’s Kitchen – but cited the mentally ill as the most daunting issue in 2022.

“The difference now from crime in the ‘70s and ‘80s is the randomness of it all,” said the management analyst. “Now you could be attacked walking down the street in broad daylight or pushed on the tracks on your way home from work.  The fear is real.”

According to the 34th Street Partnership, police staffing levels in Midtown South stood at 382 officers in 1994.  The current number is 256, according to data obtained by the Daily News.  And the most recent NYPD crime stats indicated a 66% hike in grand larcenies, 55% rise in burglaries and a 49% jump in robberies.

Shoplifting is rampant, and even if you don’t live in a big city these days, you’ve undoubtedly heard the stories of drug stores closing up as a result, which hurts the poor the most.

I finally made it into New York about three weeks ago and was in the Hells Kitchen area with some friends for what used to be an annual dinner at a pizza joint.  I hadn’t been in since the summer of 2019.  It was different for sure.  A little unnerving.

What sucks is there is a lot I’d like to do, especially on the museum front.  But I also don’t have to.

Ironically, the pizza joint, that we had been to countless times before, was sub-par, clearly the victim of a big turnover in the kitchen…the quality was nowhere near what it had been.

--In a new report on the impact of California’s drought, researchers estimated that the state’s irrigated farmland shrank by 752,000 acres, or nearly 10%, in 2022 compared with 2019 – the year prior to the drought.  That was up from an estimated 563,000 acres of fallowed farmland last year.

Nearly all the farmland that was left unplanted and dry falls within the Central Valley, with the state’s main rice-growing regions in Sutter, Colusa and Glenn counties particularly hard hit, the report said.

--The other week I wrote about the questions over accommodations at the World Cup in Qatar and whether some of the hotel/resorts would be completed in time and it turns out some weren’t, much to the consternation of those traveling from afar who didn’t learn this until landing…thousands of them, who have been given the options of staying in low-priced camps in the desert – as in converted shipping containers with basic facilities and communal washing areas – all for $200 a night.

But some of these facilities weren’t finished either!  The government has authorized full refunds.

Not a great commercial if you were looking for some fans to return in future years because they so enjoyed their experience.

--Jacob Livesay of USA TODAY had a piece on the coldest planet in the solar system.  He also asks the question of the known universe, but focusing on the solar system, the coldest recorded temperature on Earth is minus 128.6 degrees Fahrenheit, or minus 89.2 degrees Celsius (July 21, 1983, Vostok Station, Antarctica), but other planets are regularly colder.

Temperatures on Mars, for example, range from a comfortable 70 F (never knew this) all the way to minus 220 F, according to the National Weather Service.

But despite being closer to the sun than Neptune, Uranus boasts the coldest recorded planetary temperature in our solar system, with a record low of about minus 370 degrees Fahrenheit, or minus 224 degrees Celsius, according to University College London.  But Neptune’s “average” temperature is colder than that of Uranus.

Either way, I imagine the demand for natural gas and heating oil is quite high among the Uranians and Neptunians.

---

Gold $1755
Oil $76.55

Regular Gas: $3.57; Diesel: $5.24 [$3.39-$3.64 yr. ago]

Returns for the week 11/21-11/25

Dow Jones  +1.8%  [34347]
S&P 500  +1.5%  [4026]
S&P MidCap  N/A
Russell 2000  N/A
Nasdaq  +0.8%  [11226]

Returns for the period 1/1/22-11/25/22

Dow Jones  -5.5%
S&P 500  -15.5%
S&P MidCap  -9.9%
Russell 2000  -16.7%
Nasdaq  -28.2%

Bulls 41.7
Bears 30.5

Hang in there.

Brian Trumbore

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