Week in Review

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Week in Review

04/29/2023

For the week 4/24-4/28

[Posted 5:15 PM ET, Friday]

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Edition 1,254

President Biden announced his bid for a second term in a three-minute video posted online Tuesday morning, urging voters to let him “finish this job” and setting in motion a potential rematch with Donald Trump.

Biden says he has spent his first years in office fighting for democracy and freedom.  And he warns that “MAGA extremists” around the country – using Trump’s “Make America Great Again” slogan – threaten those freedoms.

“When I ran for president four years ago, I said we are in a battle for the soul of America. And we still are,” Biden said, adding later: “That’s why I’m running for re-election.”

“Every generation of Americans has faced a moment when they’ve had to defend democracy,” Biden says.  “Stand up for our personal freedoms. Stand up for the right to vote and our civil rights. And this is our moment.”

But it’s a sad, pathetic, deeply disturbing, and as Gerard Baker notes below, “reckless” moment.

I’m outraged.  Joe Biden, forgetting how he is already severely mentally challenged today, will be totally incapacitated by the end of the year, let alone 2024. 

At an incredibly critical time in world history, Joe Biden is insulting the intelligence of the American people, and Democratic leadership is stupidly playing along.

Meanwhile, his opponent, as of today, Mr. “grab ‘em by the pussy,” is about to be indicted on a series of charges for attempting to overturn an election; a plan to block or delay certification of the electoral outcome.  His former vice president, Mike Pence, testified before a grand jury on Thursday for five hours in the matter, an historic appearance, and while we don’t know what Pence said, he sure wasn’t defending his old boss.

We’re going to hell…unless we wise up quickly. 

And, boy, never was there more of a need for a legitimate third-party candidacy than in 2024.

The Libertarian Party has ballot access just about everywhere, a huge issue for a third party.  To their leadership, begin to hold secret talks with the likes of Joe Manchin.  Anyone with stature whose last name isn’t Biden or Trump. You’ll have my vote.

Daniel Henninger / Wall Street Journal

“President Biden won’t negotiate, doesn’t do press conferences, does only canned events, can’t maintain focus, has minimal factual grasp and his foreign-policy activity is totally ceremonial.  So naturally he’s running for a second term.  With the total support of the Democratic Party in Congress.

“Mr. Biden likely wouldn’t be running if his opponent were any five or so Republicans not named Trump. A presidential debate next Tuesday evening against any of them would be a catastrophe for the incumbent.

“Most Americans of any age or party affiliation don’t want Mr. Biden to run again.  [Ed. I have the poll data below.]  But the odds are strong – affirmed by the midterm election results – that even more voters don’t want Donald Trump to be president again….

“I’ve come to think of Joe Biden not so much as the commander in chief as the maître d’ in chief, master of the happy handshake. What needs explaining is the current disconnection between professional Democrats and most everyone else over the idea of continuing Mr. Biden’s official-greeter presidency.  What do they see that normal people don’t? ....

“A beside-the-point president is the best thing that has ever happened to the progressive centralization project. That is why Washington’s Democrats would embrace a Kamala Harris success….

“The greatest peril is foreign policy, whose execution requires presidential leadership. Kissinger needed Nixon, Schulz needed Reagan, and Acheson had Truman.  Antony Blinken is on his own, and it shows, as allies like Saudi Arabia and France flirt with China.  The U.S. needs to increase spending on national security beyond 3% of gross domestic product.  No matter what happens in the world, these Democrats won’t do that.

“The cliché happens to be true: It’s early.  The Hunter anvil hangs over Mr. Biden, along with a fragile economy and tense world. All kinds of stuff hangs over Mr. Trump.  We are in a familiar phase, with opinion polls representing reality.  They show Mr. Trump with a big nomination lead, thus the coverage has defaulted the election to a Biden-Trump grudge match.  Like the (Manhattan District Attorney) Bragg indictment, that advantages the incumbent’s sleepwalk to re-election.

“To paraphrase Dirty Harry, Republicans staring down this barrel have to be asking themselves one question: Do you think Donald Trump will run from here until November 2024 saying the 2020 election was rigged and stolen? If he does – and of course he will – you lose.”

Karl Rove / Wall Street Journal

“A three-minute video issued at the crack of dawn Tuesday was a strange way to launch President Biden’s re-election bid. Granted, President Obama announced he would run for a second term by video in April 2011, but no one questioned his energy and mental acuity.

“Not so for Mr. Biden. Many doubt he can last another term. If he’s re-elected and serves four years, he would be 86 – older than all but seven former presidents ever lived, including Jimmy Carter, who is 98 and left office at 56.

“You would think the president’s team would try assuaging the public’s concerns by putting a vigorous, sharp Mr. Biden on display in person. Instead we got a video.

“The short film appealed almost exclusively to the Democratic base, elements of which aren’t enthusiastic about a second Biden run.  The video featured Democratic go-to issues – abortion and voting rights – and familiar attacks, including the charge that Republicans want to gut Social Security to pay for tax cuts for the wealthy. It was all pro forma and blasé….

“Missing from Tuesday’s video were mentions of the inflation ravaging family budgets, recession worries, Russia’s war on Ukraine, the Chinese threat, crime and the crisis at the southern border.  These issues are why the RealClearPolitics polling average shows that nearly 65% of respondents say America is on the wrong track.  Mr. Biden doesn’t like talking about these issues, but he won’t be able to avoid them during the campaign.”

Gerard Baker / Wall Street Journal

“Four more years.  Have those words ever elicited less excitement?  Have 48 months ever loomed as a more unnerving slog through domestic political strife and rising global insecurity?  Has a nation ever peered more anxiously into a future under the leadership of a man far along the path of cognitive decline from which no one has ever returned?

“Normally the prospect of an incumbent’s re-election is a rallying moment, a chance to remind supporters why you’re there in the first place, an opportunity to offer the nation that curious but compelling combination of continuity and renewal. It should be a moment for hope for at least half the country.  This time around four more years sounds like a parole board’s answer to a prisoner’s appeal….

“Who is honestly enthusiastic about Joe Biden’s campaign for a second term except perhaps for a son who can hope that a father in the White House will continue to shield him from the accountability he deserves?

“Certainly not most Americans.  Only a quarter of voters want him to run again, according to an Associated Press-NORC poll released last week. Even Democrats are unenthusiastic….

“There’s no getting around the age problem. The president’s widening mental deficit makes a bid for a second term a risky proposition.  It’s not only an act of willful recklessness; it amounts to a grand deception.  Most Americans have seen enough of the president to understand that as his capacities continue to shrink, he will be less capable of making the crucial decisions the office requires.  A large amount of executive power will be delegated to family members such as the first lady, to unelected officials close to the Oval Office and perhaps to the vice president.

“Which is why a bid for a second term is also reckless.  The domestic and international situation demands measured judgment and steady leadership, but we would be forced to wake up every day of a Biden second term wondering if this is going to be the Inauguration Day for Kamala Harris, the accession to the top job of the embodiment of vacuity….

“But I suspect that for all the diffidence and disquiet among Democrats, Mr. Biden is pretty secure. The main reason for concern among the rest of us is that, as things stand, he has a good shot – a shot he doesn’t deserve – at winning.

“As his political handlers know, the president is the ideal figurehead for a party that has moved aggressively leftward in the last few years.

“The Biden presidency has been a notable example of the power of false advertising.  It’s a flag of convenience under which the coalition of economic and climate extremists of the Bernie Sanders wing and the cultural extremism of its critical-race and identitarian wing has been happy to sail, taking the country farther toward their progressive utopia, paid for the by the rest of us in higher inflation, taxes and interest rates.

“Enough Americans are still incredulous that Joe from Scranton could really be the vehicle for all this stuff, so that his claims to be the same old moderate he has always been somehow resonate. Expect a re-election campaign that insists it’s not the Democrats but the Republicans who are remaking the country.

“That’s the second thing the president has going for him: his opposition. The other message we can expect to hear from the Biden re-election campaign is that a second term is the only way to save the country from another four years of Donald Trump.

“Republican primary voters have the best chance to prove him wrong.”

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The war in Ukraine is at a critical juncture after a winter where Russia’s offensive gained little ground despite the bloodiest fighting thus far.  Now Kyiv is preparing a counteroffensive using hundreds of tanks and armored vehicles sent by the West.

“As soon as there is God’s will, the weather and a decision by commanders, we will do it,” Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said in a news briefing today.  Ukraine’s new modern weapons would serve as an “iron fist.”

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said this week that Kyiv’s foreign allies and partners had delivered almost all their promised combat vehicles.

In response to an early Friday morning missile attack by Russia that killed at least 21 civilians (detailed below), President Volodymyr Zelensky wrote in a Telegram post: “This Russian terror must face a fair response from Ukraine and the world.  And it will.”

This Week in Ukraine….

--Ukrainian troops have set up positions on the east bank of the Dnipro River in southern Kherson region, reports say.

The region is partially Russian-held and crossing the river could be significant in future offensives.

The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War says Russian military bloggers have posted “enough geolocated footage and text reports to confirm” the advance.

Ukraine’s military has not confirmed the movement, while Russia has denied the reports.

But if the reports are true, that Ukraine has secured an enduring presence on the east bank, it could be significant in helping to drive Russian troops back…the same troops that gave up the city of Kherson in November, but then shelled it from the other side of the river.

But the area Ukrainian troops are said to be moving across the river is crisscrossed by floodplains, irrigation canals and other water obstacles, and any advance is complicated by Russian air superiority in the region.

--Russia has switched to defensive positions in all its areas of combat apart from Bakhmut, according to the Ukrainian head of intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov.

In an interview with RBC Ukraine, he said: “The only places on the frontline where they are making attempts are in the city of Bakhmut, an attempt to cover the city of Avdiivka from the north, and localized fighting in the city of Marinka.

“Both in Avdiivka and Marinka the tactics are identical to those in Bakhmut – just an attempt to wipe the settlement off the face of the Earth.”

Russia on Sunday said its forces had advanced in Bakhmut while a top Ukrainian commander said his troops were holding the frontline through the city, all but destroyed in some of the bloodiest combat of the war.

Kyiv has repeatedly denied claims its troops were poised to withdraw.  President Zelensky vowed to keep defending the city.

“It is impossible for us to give up on Bakhmut because this will [help] expand the battle front and will give the Russian forces and Wagner chances to seize more of our lands,” Zelensky said in an interview with Al Arabiya news channel published on Sunday.

--Russia’s defense ministry on Monday accused Ukraine of attempting to attack its ships in the Black Sea, which it said was threatening prospects for a deal on grain exports.

--Experts stationed at Ukraine’s embattled Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant have heard shelling almost every day over the past week.  Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said IAEA experts were at one point told to shelter at the site because of military activity in the region.

The reports “further underscore the serious nuclear safety and security risks facing Europe’s largest nuclear power plant during the military conflict,” Grossi said.  “I’m deeply concerned about the situation at the plant,” he added.

--Wednesday, Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke to President Zelensky by telephone for the first time since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, fulfilling a longstanding goal of Kyiv which had publicly sought such talks for months.

Zelensky immediately signaled the importance of the chance to open closer relations with Russia’s most powerful friend, naming a former cabinet minister as Ukraine’s new ambassador to Beijing.

Describing the phone call as “long and meaningful,” Zelensky tweeted: “I believe this call, as well as the appointment of Ukraine’s ambassador to China, will give a powerful impetus to the development of our bilateral relations.”

Xi told Zelensky that China would send special representatives to Ukraine and hold talks with all parties seeking peace, Chinese state media reported. 

China will focus on promoting peace talks, and make efforts for a ceasefire as soon as possible, Xi said, according to the Chinese state media reports.  But China’s readout of the call never once refers to the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia has illegally occupied since 2014.

The White House said it welcomed the call, which it had no advance knowledge of.  But National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said in a call with reporters Wednesday:

“If Russia stops fighting, the war ends.  But right now, if Ukraine stops fighting, Ukraine ends.”

There are no peace talks in sight, with Kyiv demanding Russia withdraw its troops and Moscow insisting Ukraine must recognize its claims to have annexed seized territory.

Western countries say China’s 12-point peace proposal is too vague, offers no concrete path out of the war, and could be used by Putin to promote a truce that would leave his forces in control of occupied territory while they regroup.

--Early Friday, Russia hurled missiles killing at least 21 in the first large-scale air strikes in nearly two months.  Hours after the pre-dawn attacks, Kyiv said it was finishing preparations for a counteroffensive to try to take back territory occupied by Russian forces in 14 months of war.

In the central city of Uman, a residential apartment building was struck, with at least 17 killed, including two children.

“Rescuers will work until they make sure that no one else is left under the rubble,” President Zelensky wrote on Twitter.  “We can only defeat Russian terror together – with weapons for Ukraine, the toughest sanctions against the terrorist state, fair sentences for the Russian killers.”

It was not clear what Russia was targeting in Friday’s attacks and the targets were far from the front lines.  No energy infrastructure was damaged.

Kyiv was also targeted and rocked by explosions, with officials reporting air defense units had destroyed 11 missiles and two drones.

Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov did not say when the counteroffensive would start but confirmed Kyiv was wrapping up preparations.

But Russia for months has been building up its defenses, with satellite images showing Russia has been digging in at key strategic points in readiness for the coming attack.

--The Wall Street Journal reported Iran has been sending Russia artillery shells via the Caspian Sea for the past six months, citing shipping documents and input from Middle East officials.  That includes an alleged September deal for about 74,000 artillery shells at a cost of around $1.7 million.

According to the Journal, a recent transit occurred in March aboard a ship carrying “1,000 containers with 2,000 artillery shells” to Russia.

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--UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres warned the Security Council that global collaboration is under the greatest strain since the creation of the United Nations in 1945 on the ashes of World War II.

Mr. Guterres called cooperation among the UN’s 193-member nations the organization’s “beating heart” and “guiding vision.”

Tensions between major powers are at a “historic high” and so are the risks of conflict “through misadventure or miscalculation,” he said, pointing first and foremost to the war in Ukraine.

Guterres and representatives from Western nations berated Russia’s top diplomat as he chaired a UN meeting Monday, accusing Moscow of violating the UN charter by attacking Ukraine and occupying part of its territory.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov responded by defending his country’s military action and accusing the U.S. and its allies of undercutting global diplomacy.

However, the UN secretary general and the ambassadors of the U.S., Britain, France and their allies all pointed to the UN Charter’s underlying principle requiring all countries to support the sovereignty, territorial integrity and political independence of every nation – which Russia violated by invading Ukraine and illegally annexing several regions.

Guterres told a meeting chaired by Lavrov that Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine is “causing massive suffering and devastation to the country and its people” and fueling “global economic dislocation triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic.”

U.S. Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield called Russia a “hypocritical convener” of the meeting whose “illegal, unprovoked and unnecessary” war in Ukraine “struck at the heart of the UN Charter and all that we hold dear.”

Dmitry Medvedev, the former Russian president who serves as deputy chairman of Putin’s powerful security council, told a conference in Moscow, “The world is sick and quite probably is on the verge of a new world war.”  He said such a new world war was not inevitable but said the risks of a nuclear confrontation were growing – and more serious than concerns about climate change.

--Vladimir Yermakov, the Russian foreign ministry’s head of nuclear non-proliferation, told the Russian state news agency TASS that Washington is escalating the risks of direct military confrontation between the two nuclear powers.

“If the United States continues to follow its current course of confrontation with Russia, with the stakes constantly escalating on the verge of sliding into direct armed conflict, then the fate of START (nuclear arms treaty) may be a foregone conclusion,” Yermakov said.

The U.S. told Russia in March that it will cease exchanging some data on its nuclear forces following Moscow’s refusal to do so, calling it a response to Russia’s suspending participation in the New START treaty.

“The most acute threat today is associated…with the danger of nuclear escalation as a result of direct military confrontation between nuclear powers,” Yermakov said.  “And these risks, to the deepest regret, are steadily growing.”

--The Wall Street Journal reported the war in Ukraine is fueling economic growth in Europe, but “Hiring enough workers to meet the demand will likely be tricky.”

One big obstacle: “Defense jobs can require niche skills and security clearances,” and “defense companies are all trying to hire at the same time in a field that has long struggled to meet recruitment goals.”  On the U.S. side, “defense companies have been wrestling with labor shortages since last year, when they accelerated efforts to replace workers who didn’t return from pandemic furloughs.”

Separately, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute said world military expenditure rose by 3.7% in real terms in 2022 to $2.24 trillion.

--The New York Times reported that the U.S. airman who leaked Pentagon documents online, Jack Teixeira, had been sharing classified information about the Ukraine war for months, and to a larger audience than was initially thought.

Teixeira has been charged with posting classified information in a 50-person group on the video game server Discord.  He’s accused of leaking those documents starting in October 2022, the Times writes.  But he may have been posting intelligence information in a larger group – about 600 people – since February 2022, according to Bellingcat’s Aric Toler, who has been working with the Times.

Les than 48 hours after Russia invaded Ukraine, a user whose profile matches Teixeira’s posted, “Saw a pentagon report saying that 1/3rd of the force is being used to invade.”  That user also posted “I have a little more than open source info. Perks of being in a USAF intel unit.”

So Teixeira appeared in federal court in Worcester, Mass., on Thursday, where a judge expressed concern the 21-year-old’s knowledge of classified material might be valuable to a foreign government.  U.S. Magistrate David Hennessy declined to rule on whether the traitor should be released into the custody of his father. Of course, he shouldn’t be.

Teixeira kept a gun locker two feet from his bed, which contained handguns, bolt-action rifles and a military-style rifle with a high-capacity magazine, according to the government’s filing.  Brendan Kelley, the defense lawyer, said his client broke no firearms laws and that the weapons were reasonably stored and locked.  The judge scoffed at Kelley’s suggestion his client is only being accused of sharing classified information with a small group of people on the internet.

“Seriously?” Hennessy asked incredulously.

Prosecutors, in a court filing, revealed that Teixeira was suspended from high school after he was overheard making racial threats and remarks about guns.  More recently, in November 2022, Teixeira said if he had his way, he would “kill a f---ing ton of people” because it would be “culling the weak minded,” prosecutors alleged in documents supporting their motion to detain Teixeira.

The judge has yet to rule.

Bottom line, how the hell did this kid get into the Air National Guard?!  [Answer?  ‘Aww, he’s just a kid.  And we need warm bodies.’]

--China’s French ambassador walked backed surprising remarks on Ukraine last weekend, when Ambassador Lu Shaye claimed that former Soviet republics “don’t have actual status in international law because there is no international agreement to materialize their sovereign status,” according to an interview on French TV.  Furthermore, “A transcript of Lu’s remarks posted on the Chinese embassy’s official WeChat account were subsequently deleted.”

Officials from France to the Baltics, as well as Ukraine, protested almost immediately – with Paris insisting, “On Ukraine specifically, it was internationally recognized within borders including Crimea in 1991 by the entire international community, including China.”

One Ukrainian advisor, Mykhailo Podolyak, warned Beijing on Twitter Sunday, “It is strange to hear an absurd version of the ‘history of Crimea’ from a representative of a country that is scrupulous about its thousand-year history.  If you want to be a major political player, do not parrot the propaganda of Russian outsiders.”

The Baltic states were furious at Lu’s statement.

Beijing’s Foreign Ministry tried to distance itself from the ambassador’s comments, with a spokeswoman telling reporters Monday, “China respects all countries’ sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity and upholds the purposes and principles of the UN Charter.”

But too late…the diplomatic firestorm threatens to overshadow China’s attempts to portray itself as a peacemaker in the war – and to improve trade and diplomatic relations with the European Union.

Lithuania’s Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbregis cited Lu’s comments in a tweet Saturday to explain “why the Baltic states don’t trust China to ‘broker peace in Ukraine.’”

Taiwan voiced solidarity with Lithuania’s and the Baltic states’ position.

--Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said last Saturday that Moscow was expelling more than 20 German diplomats, as Berlin said some Russian diplomats had left Germany.

Relations between Russia and Germany, which used to be the biggest buyer of Russian oil and gas, have fallen apart since Moscow sent its armed forces into Ukraine.  Germany’s Bild daily reported that 34 of the 90 German diplomats remaining in Moscow had been told to leave Russia.

--Alexei Navalny said that he is being investigated on terrorism charges which could see him face an additional 30 years in prison.  Navalny, who is already serving 11 years in a penal colony for various alleged crimes including fraud and contempt, called the case against him “absurd.”

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Wall Street and the Economy

It’s all about the Federal Reserve’s next Open Market Committee meeting next May 2-3 (Tues.-Wed.), at which time the Fed is expected to hike its benchmark funds rate another 25 basis points, and then the issue will be whether Chair Jerome Powell and Co. give any hints as to when the Fed will pause.

We know they won’t say when they will cut rates, despite the market acting like it already knows it will be before year end, and there is no way Chair Powell is going to signal when they’ll pause, like at the June 13-14 meeting, because the data that they follow, such as core consumer prices and the core personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) remain well above 4%, let alone the Fed’s target of 2%.

Speaking of the PCE, it came out today for the month of March and the core reading, ex-food and energy, was 4.6% year-over-year, vs. a prior revised 4.7%.  4.5% was the consensus.  Throw in that the quarterly employment cost index came in at 1.2% vs. an expected 1.0%, or 4.8% Y/Y, and that signals ongoing substantial wage pressure.

So no way Powell says the Fed is looking to “pause in June.”

Meanwhile, you know that Atlanta Fed GDPNow barometer I parrot weekly?  Wednesday was its last reading for first-quarter GDP and it plummeted from the prior week’s 2.5% to 1.1%.  Huh, I mused, with the official first look at GDP from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis due out Thursday. That’s interesting.

And what do you know, but the official reading was indeed 1.1%, which had to be cause for a celebration at the Atlanta Fed for nailing it.  I mean consensus was 2.0%.  Now some chalked up the rather dismal 1.1% (following 2.6% in Q4 2022 and 3.2% in Q3 2022) to inventories declining substantially, but still, while we will see two more updates on the initial read, 1.1% kind of sucks.  Many economists are now looking for flat GDP in the current quarter.

On the other data, personal income for March came in at 0.3%, a tick better than expected, while consumption was unchanged.

Earlier, March durable goods were much stronger than forecast, 3.2%, but ex-transportation just 0.3%, the former figure due to a large number of aircraft deliveries.

On the housing front, new home sales for March were better than expected, 683,000 annualized vs. a forecast of 632,000.

And the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price 20-city index for February was up just 0.1% over January, and only 0.4% year-over-year, continuing the trend of a stagnant housing market in terms of prices, which are falling in some regions.

The first look at April manufacturing activity, the Chicago PMI, came in better than expected at 48.6, but this is still contraction territory (50 the dividing line between growth and the opposite of growth).

Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is at 6.43%.

Next week, aside from the Fed, we’ll have ISM readings on manufacturing and services, as well as April’s jobs report.

On the issue of the debt ceiling, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy squeaked his debt limit bill through the House on Wednesday, 217-215, an important political victory, but it will meet a brick wall in the Senate. [Four members of the party, Matt Gaetz (FL), Andy Biggs (AZ), Ken Buck (CO) and Tim Burchett (TN), voted against the plan.  Dirtball George Santos (R-NY) waited to be the last Republican to cast a vote and tipping the balance in favor.]

The bill, which would raise the debt limit by $1.5 billion, and potentially stave off a default until March-May 2024, presidential election season, while slashing spending, is “dead on arrival” in the Senate, per Majority Leader Chuck Schumer.

But it sets up a showdown between Speaker McCarthy and the president.  McCarthy said: “The president can no longer ignore by not negotiating.  We have done our job.”

And he has.

Republicans have said they will not raise the debt limit without getting spending cuts in return, while the president wants them to raise the debt limit first, and then negotiate federal spending separately.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told Congress the U.S. could default on its debt as soon as June 5, though a new estimate is coming based on tax-return revenues.  Some Wall Street analysts agree with this timeline, after initially believing the deadline could be extended into the summer.

To be continued….

Europe and Asia

Just one major data point, a preliminary/flash estimate on first quarter GDP for the eurozone, up 0.1%, compared with the fourth quarter, up 1.3% from the first quarter 2022.

Q1 2023 vs. Q1 2022

Germany -0.1%, France 0.8%, Italy 1.8%, Spain 3.8%.

Turning to Asia…no significant data from China this week.  This weekend we’ll get the important PMI numbers.

Japan reported March retail sales were up 7.2% year-over-year, but industrial production was down 0.7% Y/Y.

Importantly, Tokyo’s core consumer price figure for April was 3.5%, another worrisome number for the Bank of Japan, and above forecasts.

Street Bytes

--Stocks rose on some key earnings reports that were better than expected, though I hasten to add, the bar was lowered bigly.  I’m unconvinced.  This weekend, First Republic Bank will go bye-bye, and the market didn’t care on Thursday and Friday, and on this, I agree with the sentiment.  But to state the obvious, the ‘crisis’ isn’t quite over when it comes to the regional banks.

For the week, the Dow Jones rose 0.9% to 34098, while the S&P 500 gained 0.9% and Nasdaq added 1.3%, the latter up nearly 17% on the year.

--U.S. Treasury Yields

6-mo.  5.01%  2-yr. 4.04%  10-yr. 3.44%  30-yr. 3.67%

Treasuries rallied on recession talk, but we’ll see what happens next week with the Fed.

--Oil prices fell a bit to $76.73 on West Texas Intermediate, while natural gas rose to $2.40, the latter helped by flows from the LNG export plants, particularly Freeport’s plant in Texas.

Meanwhile, Exxon Mobil’s profit more than doubled in the first quarter as the oil major overcame falling energy prices by producing more oil.

Exxon earned $11.43 billion, or $2.83 per share, adjusted for items, for the three months ended March 31.  A year earlier it earned $5.48 billion, or $1.28 per share.  Consensus called for $2.65.

Revenue totaled $86.56 billion, down from $90.5 billion a year ago. 

Net production was 3.8 million oil-equivalent barrels per day, up nearly 160,000 bpd compared with the year-ago period.  Ex-divestments (such as for the Sakhalin-1 expropriation), net production climbed 300,000 bpd driven by projects in Guyana and the Permian Basin.

Chevron Corp. reported first-quarter profit of $6.57 billion, adjusted earnings coming in at $3.55 per share, topping consensus of $3.36.

The second-largest U.S. oil company posted revenue of $50.79 billion, topping estimates of $47.93 billion.

Worldwide net oil-equivalent production was down 3 percent from the year ago quarter primarily on lower international production due to the end of a concession in Thailand.  Capex in the first three months of 2023 was up 55 percent from a year ago primarily due to higher investment in the United States.

--Microsoft Corp. beat Wall Street’s estimates for fiscal third-quarter revenue and profit on Tuesday, driven by growth in its cloud computing and Office productivity software businesses.

Profits were $2.45 per share, beating the Street’s estimates of $2.23, up 10% from the same quarter last year.  Revenue rose 7% to $52.9 billion in the quarter ended March, above consensus of $51 billion.

The bulk of Microsoft sales still come from selling software and cloud computing services to customers, even though the company has grabbed headlines this year with its partnership with ChatGPT creator OpenAI and sprucing up the Bing search engine.

Microsoft said growth at its cloud business Azure was 27% in the latest reported quarter, slightly beating analyst expectations.  That was despite a continued challenging overall macroeconomic environment, said Brett Iversen, Microsoft’s head of investor relations. “Overall, I would say the environment felt similar to (fiscal) Q2,” he said.

The sales drop in the Windows business, which depends heavily on PC sales that have sagged, was not as bad as feared, with Microsoft reporting revenue of $13.3 billion versus analyst estimates of $12.19 billion, according to Refinitiv.  Overall revenue for the company’s cloud unit, which includes Azure as well as other services, was $22.1 billion, slightly above estimates of $21.85 billion.

--Alphabet Inc. said on Tuesday it would buy back $70 billion in stock and posted first-quarter profit and revenue above estimates as demand rose for cloud services and ad sales held up better than expected.

Ex-items, Alphabet reported earnings per share of $1.17, beating an average estimate of $1.07.

Sales for the Google Cloud unit rose 28% to $7.41 billion. 

Advertisers, who contribute the bulk of Alphabet’s sales, have curtailed their spending in response to a shift by consumers back to in-store shopping.  As well, advertisers are experimenting more with new platforms like TikTok, which attracts a more youthful audience.  Alphabet for the quarter reported a slight dip in ad sales to $54.55 billion from $54.65 billion a year earlier. The decline is just the third in the company’s history since it became public in 2004 but follows a fourth-quarter drop of 3.6%. 

The company, meanwhile, has been looking to keep a tight control on costs amid recession fears and in January decided to cut about 12,000 jobs.  Ruth Porat, Alphabet’s CFO, told workers in an internal email in March that they should anticipate additional cost-cutting measures in the coming months.

Overall revenue for the quarter ended March 31 came in at $69.79 billion, with a net profit of $15.05 billion compared with $16.44 billion a year earlier.

--Alphabet and Microsoft used their time with investors on earnings calls to emphasize artificial intelligence, even as their quarterly results received a boost from their established search and cloud-computing businesses.

The two tech giants are becoming rivals in the competition for the future of search, with Google executives encouraging investors to trust the company’s long track record as the world’s leading search engine, while framing AI as just another shift in its constantly evolving business.  Microsoft, on the other hand, suggested that something much more dramatic is underway.

Microsoft has been weaving OpenAI’s technology and its wildly popular chatbot, ChatGPT, into its Bing search engine, while Google is attempting to reinvent its core search business to allow for more of the conversational exchanges that generative AI makes possible.

Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai stressed that Google is investing heavily in AI, yet he downplayed what the technology would mean for the search advertising business, which remains the company’s lifeblood.

Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella suggested his company is a formidable challenger. He said app installations have quadrupled since the launch of the AI-powered Bing in February. He added that Bing took share in the U.S. market in the quarter, without offering specifics.

Google shares were flat in response, while Microsoft shares surged 7%.

--Separately, Microsoft’s $69 billion acquisition of video game developer Activision Blizzard was blocked by the UK’s Competition and Markets Authority on Wednesday, which said the remedies offered by the Xbox owner had “significant shortcomings.”

Earlier this year, Britain’s competition regulator provisionally found that the deal could strengthen Microsoft’s position in cloud gaming.  Microsoft agreed in January 2022 to buy Activision, which makes the popular Call of Duty and Candy Crush franchises.  Activision shares fell 10% on the news, while Microsoft’s were rising 7% on its earnings report.

The CMA said: “The cloud allows UK gamers to avoid buying expensive gaming consoles and (personal computers) and gives them much more flexibility and choice as to how they play.  Allowing Microsoft to take such a strong position in the cloud gaming market just as it begins to grow rapidly would risk undermining the innovation that is crucial to the development of these opportunities.”

Microsoft said it plans to appeal the decision, while Activision will do the same.

--Meta Platforms’ shares rocketed 12% higher on first-quarter results that surpassed Wall Street’s estimates as Facebook’s users grew year on year while the company late Wednesday outlined a stronger-than-expected revenue outlook for the current quarter.

Per-share earnings declined to $2.20 during the three months ended March 31 from $2.72 a year earlier, but came in above the consensus for $1.97.  Revenue rose to $28.65 billion, higher than the Street’s view of $27.66 billion.

“Our (artificial intelligence) work is driving good results across our apps and business,” said CEO Mark Zuckerberg in a statement.

Facebook daily active users moved up 4% to 2.04 billion on average for March, while monthly active users rose 2% to 2.99 billion as of the end of the month.

The company expects second-quarter revenue of $29.5 billion to $32 billion, compared with the consensus for $29.47 billion.

Meta, which also owns Instagram and WhatsApp, said Wednesday it incurred $523 million in severance and other personnel costs related to recently announced plans to lay off about 10,000 employees.  That move will overall cost the company $1 billion.

Meta has kicked off an aggressive cost-cutting drive, with plans to eliminate 21,000 jobs and flatten its middle-management structure as it works towards Zuckerberg’s goal of turning 2023 into the “year of efficiency.”

There were some setbacks, ignored by the market, including on Meta’s division focused on building virtual reality technology for the metaverse. The unit, called Reality Labs, had an operating loss of $3.99 billion in the quarter, and brought in revenue of $339 million – down 51% from a year earlier and less than analysts projected.  But analysts expect the metaverse to become a “sideshow” as the company doubles down on AI.

--Amazon.com Inc. on Thursday reported quarterly sales and profit ahead of expectations, and in the first nearly two hours of trade in the aftermarket, the shares rose $10, in excess of the $4.50 they had risen prior to the earnings release on the back of Meta’s earnings and a big overall rally.

But then the shares came back down to earth after the company said it was seeing a sharp drop in cloud revenue growth as businesses grappled with an uncertain economy.  April growth rates for Amazon Web Services (AWS) were about 5 percentage points lower than in the first quarter, CFO Brian Olsavsky told analysts on a conference call.  Shortly after he spoke, Amazon lost all of its after-hours share gains of about 12% to trade near its price at the close of the regular session.

Addressing ongoing concerns about the economy, CEO Andy Jassy has aimed to slash spending across Amazon’s vast array of divisions.  Last month, he said the company would axe jobs from its cloud and advertising businesses, expanding Amazon’s corporate layoffs since November to 27,000 employees.

The company reported better-than-expected sales of $127.36 billion in the first three months of the year, and it forecast revenue between $127 billion and $133 billion in the second quarter.  Amazon’s outlook has long been intertwined with the fortunes of AWS, the growth of which slowed to 15.8% in the first quarter.  That is poised to fall further, the company said.

Amazon’s net profit stood at $3.17 billion in the quarter, compared with a loss of $3.84 billion a year earlier.

--Boeing said on Wednesday that it planned to ramp up production of its 737 MAX jets to 38 per month by year-end, while backing its annual cash-flow goal, as it tries to reassure investors after manufacturing problems threatened to derail deliveries.  Boeing is looking for its suppliers to ramp up to 38 737 MAXs a month in June, seven more than its current production rate.

Production of the widebody 787 Dreamliner has stabilized at three, the planemaker said, adding that it would increase to five per month by year-end.  Overall, Boeing reaffirmed plans to deliver 400 to 450 737 MAXs and 70 to 80 787 Dreamliners this year.

Boeing’s cash burn slowed to $786 million from $3.57 billion a year earlier, as it delivered about 27% more jets.  Planemakers usually receive a major portion of cash when they hand over aircraft.

Boeing reported an adjusted loss per share of $1.27, $425 million, wider than analysts’ expectations of a loss of $1.07.  Revenue of $17.92 billion was up 28% from a year earlier and beat consensus of $17.57 billion.  The company paid down $1.6 billion in debt, which now stands at $55.4 billion.

CEO Dave Calhoun added in a statement: “We are progressing through recent supply chain disruptions but remain confident in the goals we set for this year, as well as for the longer term.  Demand is strong across our key markets.”

--JetBlue Airways Corp. criticized federal officials as the carrier said a shortage of air-traffic controllers would force it to cut 10% of its departures from the New York City area during the busy summer travel season.

The pullback will have a “pretty significant financial impact” on JetBlue in the second and possibly third quarters, President Joanna Geraghty said on a conference call Tuesday to discuss earnings results.  The company warned last month of possible flight cuts after the FAA asked airlines to trim flying at some of the nation’s busiest airports.

“We’re obviously very concerned about New York City for the summer,” Geraghty said.  “The FAA continues to be significantly understaffed.  This is a continuing issue and frankly it’s only getting worse this summer.”

As I wrote a few weeks ago when this problem emerged, a shortage of air-traffic controllers in New York has an outsized impact on the total U.S. aviation system, with a high percentage of aircraft flying into or through the region.

--American Airlines Group Inc. reported its first-quarter results, with adjusted net income of $33 million, or $0.05 per share.  Consensus was at $0.03.  First-quarter revenue was a record $12.2 billion, a 37% increase from a year earlier.  And the company reiterated full-year adjusted earnings of $2.50 to $3.50.

“The American Airlines team ran a great operation and delivered on our financial guidance for the quarter, resulting in a first-quarter profit for the first time in four years,” said CEO Robert Isom.  “Looking ahead to the remainder of 2023, we remain focused on reliability, profitability, strengthening the balance sheet, and creating even more value for our shareholders, team members, customers and the communities we serve.”  Rah!

American did outperform the industry in on-time departures for the quarter, ranking first among the nine largest U.S. carriers.

And the company will make a profit-sharing payment to its team members for the first time in three years.

--Southwest Airlines reported a Q1 adjusted loss Thursday of $0.27 per share, narrowing from a loss of $0.32 a year earlier.  Analysts were expecting a loss of $0.23.

Southwest canceled more than 16,700 flights at the end of December, which led to a $380 million negative financial impact in the first quarter. The total cost of the disruption was $1.4 billion.

Operating revenue for the quarter was $5.71 billion, a record, compared with $4.69 billion in Q1 2022, basically in line with expectations.

CEO Bob Jordan said the airline expects “solid profits” in Q2.

“We remain confident in our low-cost, low-fare business model and our long-term strategy, which is supported by a robust set of strategic initiatives designed to drive significant financial value,” he said.

--TSA checkpoint numbers vs. 2019

4/27…101 percent of 2019 levels
4/26…97
4/25…96
4/24…100
4/23…102
4/22…103
4/21…103
4/20…99

--General Motors Co. raised its full-year profit outlook, citing consumers’ willingness to spend big on high-end models, even as the company tightens its own belt.

GM also said Tuesday it would drop the Chevy Bolt from its lineup, killing off its first mainstream electric vehicle as it moves to newer battery technology.

GM said it plans to end production of the Chevy Bolt at year’s end, after troubles with battery fires and sluggish sales for the model.

The company is pivoting to new battery technology that will underpin a new generation of EVs. GM said it would retool its Bolt factory to make electric pickup trucks.

The nation’s largest auto maker by sales said it lifted 2023 profit guidance because of strong results in the first quarter that outpaced expectations and cost savings from a recent employee-buyout program are flowing to the bottom line.

GM finance chief Paul Jacobson said vehicle demand remains strong and consumers continue to pay top dollar – an average of $50,263 per vehicle in the U.S. during the quarter, off 1% from  a year earlier.

GM reported net income of $2.4 billion for the quarter, down 19% largely owing to the buyout program that resulted in $900 million in associated costs.  About 5,000 salaried workers at GM took voluntary buyouts in March.  Pretax profit, ex-the buyout and other one-time items, was $3.8 billion, down 6% from a year earlier.  Per-share earnings of $2.21 topped consensus of $1.70.

In North America – pretax profit rose about 14%, while revenue of $32.9 billion hit a new first-quarter record.  Overall, company revenue rose 11% to about $40 billion.

--Stellantis wants to cut 3,500 hourly skilled and production jobs in the United States, and it plans to offer buyout packages “corporate wide,” according to a local UAW official.

The company said the buyouts would be offered to 33,000 workers in the U.S. and Canada, but the target number of hourly positions being sought is about 3,500.

Stellantis owns the Jeep, Ram, Chrysler, Dodge and Fiat brands.

--Customers of First Republic Bank pulled more than $100 billion in deposits out of the bank during last month’s crisis, as fears swirled that it could be the third bank to fail after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.

San Francisco-based First Republic said Monday that it was only after a group of large banks stepped in to save it by depositing $30 billion in uninsured deposits that the bank was able to staunch the bleeding.

The bank said it now plans to sell off assets and restructure its balance sheet, and said it also expects to lay off as much as a quarter of its workforce, which totaled about 7,200 employees at the end of 2022.

First Republic reported first-quarter results Monday that showed it had $173.5 billion in deposits in early March before Silicon Valley Bank failed on March 9.  On April 21, it had deposits of $102.7 billion, including the $30 billion the big banks deposited.

First Republic prior to the failure of SVB had a banking franchise that catered to the rich and powerful, who rarely defaulted on their loans.  The bank made much of its money making low-cost loans to the rich, which reportedly included Meta Platforms Mark Zuckerberg.

But its franchise became a liability when bank customers and analysts started focusing on the fact that the vast majority of First Republic’s deposits, like SVB and Signature Bank, were uninsured, that is, above the $250,000 limit set by the FDIC, which means that if First Republic were to fail, its depositors may not get all their money bank, certainly not in a timely fashion (at least that’s the risk).

The bank’s profits fell 33% from a year earlier.

The shares, which rallied back to $16 in the period after the SVB collapse, cratered anew down to below $5 at one point Wednesday, before rallying back some. 

But then today, amid a report from CNBC that FRC was likely headed for receivership under the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the rout in the share price worsened.

The bank’s fate will be decided this weekend, but the market isn’t concerned.

Separately, and rather ironically, this afternoon a long-awaited review of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank was released this afternoon, the central bank saying it failed to properly supervise the bank before it collapsed.

The report, authored by Fed staff and Michael Barr, the Fed’s vice chair for supervision, takes a critical look at what the Fed missed as SVB grew quickly in size in the years leading up to its collapse.

“The Federal Reserve did not appreciate the seriousness of critical deficiencies in the firm’s governance, liquidity, and interest rate risk management.  These judgements meant that Silicon Valley Bank remained well-rated, even as conditions deteriorated and significant risk to the firm’s safety and soundness emerged,” the report said.

The review also pointed out underlying cultural issues at the Fed, where supervisors were unwilling to be hard on bank management when they saw growing problems.

--Credit Suisse Group AG reported $69 billion of outflows in the first quarter and took a large writedown at its wealth management unit, underscoring the challenge for UBS Group AG in retaining key clients and assets after the emergency takeover of its biggest rival.

--Deutsche Bank is cutting 800 jobs in a new cost-saving drive after reporting a bigger than expected rise in profit in the first quarter, a volatile period globally for finance companies.

--United Parcel Service Inc. shares cratered Tuesday some 10% after the company said it expects full-year revenue to be at the lower end of its earlier forecast as the freight bellwether grapples with a weakening economy.

Most delivery firms were left with a bloated delivery capacity after online sales that had peaked during the pandemic started to fizzle as high inflation dented discretionary spending.

“In the first quarter, deceleration in U.S. retail sales resulted in lower volume than we anticipated, and we faced ongoing demand weakness in Asia,” UPS CEO Carol Tome said.  The company forecast full-year revenue to be about $97.0 billion, compared with the average analysts’ estimate for $98.14 billion.  However, the world’s largest parcel delivery firm has benefited in recent quarters from a strong focus on moving high-margin parcels, coupled with measures to control costs. 

The company posted an adjusted profit of $2.20 per share for the quarter through March, compared with $3.05 a year earlier.  Revenue for the quarter was $22.93 billion, down from $24.38 billion a year earlier.

--Caterpillar Inc. reported a rise in first-quarter profit as a boost in U.S. infrastructure spending kept its order books full and softened the hit from higher manufacturing costs.  The recent infrastructure legislation encouraged spending in the construction sector, spurring demand for the heavy machinery company’s excavators, bulldozers and trucks.  Its energy customers, grappling with aging machines and tight production capacity, also placed more orders for parts and engines as drilling activities surged with higher oil and gas prices (though the nat gas price has plummeted the last few months).

Caterpillar’s sales and revenue for the quarter through March 31 rose to $15.9 billion from $13.6 billion a year ago, and above consensus of $15.24bn. Adjusted profit rose to $4.91 per share from $2.88 a year earlier.

--3M Co. will cut about 6,000 positions globally in a second round of layoffs this year, as the industrial conglomerate looks to rein in costs amid waning demand for consumer electronics.

The diversified manufacturer said on Tuesday it will shift its focus to high-growth businesses including automotive electrification and home improvement, and prioritize emerging growth areas such as climate technology and next-generation consumer electronics.

The job-cut decision comes as an uncertain economy along with rising interest rates and stubbornly high inflation forces corporate America to get leaner in recent months.

The company’s consumer electronic business fell 35% in the first quarter, the company said on a call with analysts.

Earlier this year, the company had announced a reduction of 2,500 jobs.  With the second round of cuts, the company has now reduced its total global workforce by 10%.

Adjusted earnings of $1.97 per share for the quarter did exceed expectations, ditto revenue of $8.03 billion, but the shares were largely unchanged.

--Chipmaker Intel Corp. on Thursday estimated second-quarter earnings below Wall Street forecasts despite its greater sales optimism, a sign that the company is still struggling to make money despite early signs of a recovery in global chip demand.

While profits and margins were lower than analysts had expected, Intel executives said a slump in PC demand could start to ease in the second half of the year and that the company aims to resume making profits.

A fall of about 30% in first-quarter global PC shipments has made some chip industry experts hopeful that an inventory build-up has cleared out, paving the way for fresh orders.

The company forecast a second-quarter revenue range with a midpoint of $12 billion, above consensus of $11.75bn.  CEO Pat Gelsinger said he was “seeing some green shoots, increasing stability in the PC market as inventories have stabilized.”

Underscoring Intel’s profitability slump in recent years, its first-quarter gross margin fell to 34.2%, almost half of its multi-decade high of over 67% in 2010.  The company forecast a further drop to 33.2% for the second quarter.

First-quarter revenue came in at $11.72 billion, exceeding estimates of about $11.0 billion.  Adjusted losses were 4 cents per share, also beating expectations.

--Samsung Electronics flagged a gradual recovery for chips in the second half of the year  as well after its semiconductor business reported a record loss on Thursday, driven by weak demand for tech devices.

A global downturn in semiconductor demand amid an economic slowdown and weak customer spending sent chip prices plummeting in the first quarter.  Samsung said its chip business would focus on high-capacity server and mobile products “based on expectations of a gradual market recovery and a rebound in global demand” in the second half.  For the current quarter, Samsung said it expected limited demand recovery for memory chips as major data center firms invested more conservatively in servers.

The world’s biggest memory chipmaker said operating profit fell to $478.6 million for the January-March quarter, down 95% from a year earlier.  Revenue declined 18%.

--PepsiCo lifted its full-year financial outlook on Tuesday after the beverages and snacks company’s first-quarter results benefited from pricing gains.

The company guided a little higher in earnings for 2023, with organic revenue growth pegged at 8%, compared with a previous projected 6% rate.

Volume rose 1% in the company’s beverage business, while it dropped 3% in its food segment.

But net prices gained 16%, reflecting the company’s pricing power and efforts to offset cost pressures.

In North America, PepsiCo’s Frito-Lay snack business reported an organic revenue rise of 16% in the quarter as the division gained market share in “the macro and savory snack categories,” the company said.  Brands including Lay’s Doritos and Cheetos logged double-digit growth.

The beverages unit, which includes brands such as Gatorade and Mountain Dew, increased 12% in the first quarter.

PepsiCo’s shares rose 2% in response.

--Coca-Cola beat first-quarter revenue and earnings estimates Monday following price increases.  The company posted adjusted earnings of 68 cents a share on sales of $11 billion, up 5% year-over-year.  Analysts were expecting 65 cents on revenue of $10.8 billion.  This time last year, the owner of Diet Coke and Minute Maid reported earnings of 64 cents a share on sales of $10.49 billion.

The company believes inflation will continue to take a toll on its financial performance over the course of the fiscal year.  Commodity price inflation will weigh on comparable cost of goods sold, or the direct costs of producing the goods sold.  Coca-Cola largely has been able to offset higher production costs by increasing prices.  And indeed, average selling prices increased 11% during the quarter.

North American volumes were unchanged.

--McDonald’s logged better-than-expected first-quarter results helped by higher menu prices and increased traffic across its outlets, despite increasing cost pressures on consumers.

Adjusted earnings climbed to $2.63 a share from $2.28 a year earlier, ahead of consensus for $2.34.  Revenue for the March quarter grew 4% to nearly $5.9 billion, topping the Street’s view for $5.58 billion.

Comparable sales on a global basis were up 13%.  In the U.S., same-store sales rose by the same figure driven by price increases, more customer visits, marketing promotions, and digital and delivery growth, according to the company.

CFO Ian Borden said on an earnings call: “Rising costs continue to pressure consumer spending across markets.  Our ability to meet customer needs in challenging times makes McDonald’s value proposition even more important to highlight.”

--Shares in Chipotle Mexican Grill soared 13% on Wednesday after the company reported earnings of $10.50 per share, up from $5.70 a year earlier, and revenue of $2.37 billion, up from $2.02 billion.  Consensus estimates were at $8.98 and $2.34 billion.

Chipotle was positive on the current quarter as well.

--Gap Inc. is eliminating hundreds of jobs from its global workforce, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday.  The current round of job cuts at Gap is expected to be larger than the roughly 500 corporate roles it eliminated in September, the report added.  As of Jan. 28, 2023, the company had a workforce of about 95,000 employees, according to a regulatory filing.

--Snap Inc. suffered its first quarterly sales drop and indicated a revenue rebound would be slow as the social-media company grapples with disruptions in the digital ad market.

Snap generated $988.6 million in revenue in the first quarter, a 7% drop from the year-ago figure, the company behind the popular social media app Snapchat said Thursday after the market closed.  Current quarter sales could come in around 6% below the prior year’s figure.

The shares fell 18% in response, and are down about 85% from their 2021 high.

Snap has been hit hard by shifts in the digital advertising market, owing to declining macroeconomic conditions, and the fallout from Apple Inc.’s privacy policy changes that have made it harder to track the performance of some ad campaigns.

But other larger competitors, such as Meta and Alphabet, said the digital ad market was stabilizing.

--Disney filed a First Amendment lawsuit against Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and a five-member board that oversees government services at Disney World in federal court, claiming “a targeted campaign of government retaliation.”

“In America, the government cannot punish you for speaking your mind,” Disney said in its complaint.  The company had criticized the Parental Rights in Education law, which opponents labeled “Don’t Say Gay” and which prohibits classroom discussion of sexual orientation and gender identity for students through the third grade.  The DeSantis administration recently expanded the ban through Grade 12.

The lawsuit accused DeSantis of a “relentless campaign to weaponize government power against Disney in retaliation for expressing a political viewpoint.”  The campaign, the complaint added, “now threatens Disney’s business operations, jeopardizes its economic future in the region and violates its constitutional rights.”

A spokeswoman for the governor said: “We are unaware of any legal right that a company has to operate its own government or maintain special privileges not held by other businesses in the state.”

--According to a report by the Fund for New York City and the United Way of New York, half the city’s households do not make enough money to meet their basic needs, a new milestone in the city’s affordability crisis.

The study, which has been conducted seven times since 2000, takes into account the costs of housing, health care, childcare, taxes, transportation and other expenses.  This is the highest unaffordability figure recorded in the survey’s history, and it marks a sharp increase even from pandemic-scarred 2021, when 36% of households had inadequate incomes.

Factors that led to the uptick include the loss of jobs during the pandemic and the rising costs of basic needs like housing and food, according to the study.

--A good indicator of the recovery in New York City tourism is visitors to the Empire State Building. The skyscraper saw about 443,000 visitors during the first quarter, up 65% compared with the 269,000 visitors during the first quarter of 2022, according to Empire State Realty Trust’s first quarter earnings report.  The firm earned $14.3 million in net operating income from the observatory, a $7.3 million increase year-over-year.

However, attendance was still only about 74% of its levels from the first quarter of 2019, indicating that the city’s tourism industry has yet to fully rebound from the pandemic.  In the fourth quarter, due to the busy holiday season, the building that King Kong climbed (really, he did) saw about 660,000 visitors.  [Crain’s New York Business]

--I went to the local Bed Bath & Beyond store on Monday, after the expected Chapter 11 filing in New Jersey over the weekend, just to see what the sales were like, and it was nothing substantial, as yet, but I’m sure will be later as they look to liquidate all 360 remaining stores (and 120 Buy Buy Baby shops) immediately, the properties to be vacated by June 30.

Needless to say, I felt sorry for the employees, some of whom I’ve seen there for years, no severance, no nuthin’.  And some of them are special needs’ types, so who knows what will happen to these terrific workers.

But the reality is, there should be some good buys over the coming weeks.  The company expects to generate proceeds from all sales to be about $720 million, according to court documents for its bankruptcy filing.

The company estimated it had assets of $4.4 billion and total debt of $5.2 billion. BBBY has 14,000 workers remaining, down from 32,000 as of February 2022.

--The Bud Light senior marketing executive behind the controversial Dylan Mulvaney ad campaign took a leave of absence, according to a report.

Alissa Heinerscheid was replaced by Budweiser global marketing VP Todd Allen.

The move comes as Bud Light and its parent company Anheuser-Busch have faced immense backlash for its partnership with Mulvaney, a transgender influencer who rose to fame chronicling her gender transition on social media.

Well let’s get back to the “fratty” and “out of touch” humor of yore for beer commercials that Heinerscheid sought to transform to “a beer company that embraces inclusivity.”

--“The Super Mario Bros. Movie” continued to rack up coins at the box office, leading ticket sales for the third straight weekend as the animation hit neared $1 billion after just 18 days in theaters.

Foreign Affairs, Part II

China / South Korea / Taiwan:  South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol came to Washington this week for talks with President Biden (and a State Dinner), with the two upgrading their countries’ nuclear defense plans in a joint agreement known as the “Washington Declaration,” released Wednesday by the White House. The deal permits the U.S. Navy to periodically deploy a nuclear-armed submarine off the Korean coast in exchange for Seoul agreeing to not create or obtain its own nuclear weapons.

The deal marks 70 years of the U.S.-South Korean alliance and reaffirms “that any nuclear attack by the [North] against [South Korea] will be met with a swift, overwhelming and decisive response,” according to the text of the declaration.  It also allows South Korean officials to play a part in U.S. nuclear contingency planning for the peninsula, under the guise of a “Nuclear Consultative Group,” should North Korea carry out a nuclear attack.

“Sustainable peace on the Korean Peninsula does not happen automatically,” Yoon told reporters Wednesday while standing beside Biden in the Rose Garden.  “Our two leaders have decided to significantly strengthen extended deterrence of our two countries against North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats so that we can achieve peace through the superiority of overwhelming forces and not a false peace based on the goodwill of the other side.”

Biden said: “Look, a nuclear attack by North Korea against the United States or its allies or partners is unacceptable, and will result in the end of whatever regime, were it to take such an action.”

But South Korea’s right-leaning conservative newspaper Chosun published an op-ed Thursday criticizing the agreement for not going far enough: “[It] seems the U.S. is more worried about [South Korean] nuclear development than about neutralizing/incapacitating [North Korean] nukes,” the paper’s editors wrote.

China denounced the U.S. plan to send a nuclear ballistic missile submarine to South Korea.

Foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said on Thursday that China firmly opposed the deployment of the nuclear submarine and other “U.S. strategic assets” announced by Presidents Biden and Yoon on Wednesday. Mao added that the decision was the result of the U.S.’ “selfish geopolitical interests.”

“The United States has put regional security at risk and intentionally used the issue of the (Korean) peninsula as an excuse to create tension,” she said in Beijing.

“What the U.S. does is full of Cold War thinking, provoking bloc confrontation, undermining the nuclear non-proliferation system, damaging the strategic interests of other countries, exacerbating tensions on the Korean peninsula, undermining regional peace and stability, and running counter to the goal of the denuclearization of the peninsula.” [South China Morning Post]

Boy, I want to party with her!

North Korea set an annual record for missile tests last year, and some of us have been sitting around, waiting for Pyongyang to carry out its next nuclear weapons test, which would be its seventh.  Ankit Panda of the Carnegie Endowment for World Peace noted Wednesday that he expects the test at any point in the coming weeks, though we’ve heard this for about six months.

On the Taiwan front, Guatemala’s leader on Tuesday pledged his unconditional support for Taiwan during a visit to Taipei.  Guatemala is one of only 13 countries with official diplomatic ties with the island.

“I want everyone to trust that Guatemala will continue to be a solid diplomatic ally to the Republic of Taiwan and will continue to deepen cooperation in all areas,” Guatemalan President Alejandro Giammattei said.

Separately, Taiwanese activist Yang Chih-yuan, who was detained in the mainland eight months ago, will face “secession” charges, Beijing announced, in a move that is very Moscow-like, and its imprisoning of Alexei Navalny and Vladimir Kara-Murza.

The case marks the first time that a person from Taiwan will face charges of separatism in a mainland court and comes at a time of heightened tensions.

Taiwan called for his swift release. 

Sudan: Some 16,000 Americans remained in Sudan as of early this week, and most of them are dual nationals, according to the National Security Council’s John Kirby. “These are people that grew up in Sudan, work in Sudan, families are in Sudan, and they want to stay in Sudan, so it’s a number that is difficult to plan to specifically,” Kirby told ABC News on Monday.

“We still have military forces prepositioned in the region ready to respond if need be,” Kirby said.  “But right now, it’s not very safe to try to run some larger evacuation either out of the nearby air base or even just through rotary lift like we did the other night* because the fighting is so intense.” 

But Kirby’s advice to “shelter in place and to not move around too much in the city of Khartoum” runs up against the fact everyone is running out of food and water.

*Over the weekend, the U.S. successfully evacuated about 70 diplomatic personnel and their families.

Britain launched a large-scale evacuation of its citizens on Tuesday, joining other nations racing to get their people out.  Britain, with an estimated 2,000-4,000 nationals in Sudan, said military flights would depart from an airfield outside Khartoum, and would be open to those with British passports.  Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s spokesperson said that Britain had the capacity to take over the running of the airfield to allow flights to continue if needed.  But nationals looking to leave had to get to the airfield on their own.

The rebel paramilitary group (RSF) has been looting some of the convoys heading to Port Sudan

Tuesday, it was reported there is a “high risk of biological hazard” in Khartoum after one of the warring parties seized a laboratory holding measles and cholera pathogens and other hazardous materials, the World Health Organization said.

The WHO’s representative in the country said technicians were unable to gain access to the National Public Health Laboratory to secure the materials.  “This is the main concern: no accessibility to the lab technicians to go to the lab and safely contain the biological material and substances available,” the WHO said.

The death toll was at least 459, with 4,072 injured, from the fighting according to the WHO’s figures.  But the WHO conceded this was an undercount, adding bodies have been seen in the streets in recent days, which haven’t been officially counted, while the clashes have paralyzed hospitals and other essential services, leaving many stranded in their homes.  The WHO reported 14 attacks on health facilities since the clashes began.  Each side in the fighting is going after hospitals that might be treating injured soldiers from the other side.

The United Nations humanitarian office has been forced to cut back on some of its activities in parts of Sudan due to intense fighting.  At least five aid workers have been killed.

Thursday, the U.S. warned the situation in Sudan could worsen at any moment and Americans should leave within the next 24 to 48 hours, as the administration is concerned the ceasefire could crumble.

Meanwhile, the Washington Post reported that according to leaked secret U.S. intelligence documents, “The Wagner group is moving aggressively to establish a ‘confederation’ of anti-Western states in Africa as the Russian mercenaries foment instability while using their paramilitary and disinformation capabilities to bolster Moscow’s allies.”

Some of the leaked documents talk of concern with the stability of Chad, a central African country that has become one of the United States’ most important security partners, with Wagner looking to recruit Chadian rebels as part of an “evolving plot to topple the Chadian government.”

Iran: A top Iranian cleric close to the country’s supreme leader was assassinated Wednesday, authorities said, in a rare attack on a senior religious figure at a time of continued unrest.

Ayatollah Abbas Ali Soleimani was fatally shot by a single assailant in a bank in northern Iran near the Caspian Sea.  State media said authorities had arrested a suspect at the scene and were investigating who ordered the killing.

The assassin was a security guard at the bank who appeared to have acted spontaneously and not as part of a terrorist plan, the local governor told state TV.

Soleimani was a member of the key Assembly of Experts, the deliberative body empowered to appoint the supreme leader of Iran. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has a big say in who gets on the assembly.

Afghanistan: The Islamic State group mastermind thought to have planned the devastating 2021 bombing at Kabul airport was killed by the Taliban, U.S. officials say.

The bombing that August killed 170 civilians and 13 U.S. soldiers as people were trying to flee the country as the Taliban took control.

The IS figure was killed weeks ago but it took time to confirm his death, U.S. officials said.

It is unclear if the Taliban killed the unnamed figure during ongoing fighting between IS and the Taliban, or whether the Taliban targeted him, but the U.S. had nothing to do with the operation.

Turkey: The presidential election is coming up quickly, May 14, and according to polls it’s going to be close, with opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu leading in most of them but by a hair.

Kilicdaroglu is a mild-mannered former bureaucrat dubbed Turkey’s Gandhi by some and he could oust Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Kilicdaroglu leads the Republican People’s Party (CHP), established by my man, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk (being the only kid on my block to go to his tomb in Ankara a number of years ago).  Ataturk was the military commander who founded the modern Turkish republic out of the ruins of the Ottoman Empire.  A win by Kilicdaroglu would resuscitate the country’s secular heritage and potentially restore parliamentary democracy.

But because it’s going to be close, you can’t help but be cynical if you want Kilicdaroglu to win. As in Erdogan and his followers will manipulate the vote, and/or cry foul and, presto, major crisis.

Random Musings

--Presidential approval ratings….

Gallup: …new numbers…37% approve of Biden’s job performance (lowest yet), 59% disapprove (tied for highest); 31% of independents approve (tied for lowest) (Apr. 3-25).

Rasmussen: 50% approve, 49% disapprove (April 28).  Strange so high from this survey.

A new NBC News poll found Biden has a 41% approval rating, while 54% disapprove – down from Biden’s rating of 45% approve, 50% disapprove in January.  Only 30% of independents approve of the job Biden has done, which is deadly.

But while 48% of adults have a negative view of Biden, 53% give Trump a negative rating.

--The same national NBC News poll found that a whopping two-thirds of Republican primary voters say they stand behind former President Donald Trump and dismiss concerns about his electability, despite his recent criminal arrest and the other legal investigations still playing out, including grand juries in Atlanta and Washington, D.C. that are examining the former president’s alleged interference in Georgia’s 2020 election results, his role in the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol and his handling of classified documents found at Mar-a-Lago.

Sixty-eight percent of GOP primary voters agree with the statement that the investigations into Trump are politically motivated and are designed to stop him from being president again, and that they must support him now to stop his opponents from winning.

Trump also has a double-digit lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in this survey, making Trump a clear early frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination.

Forty-six percent of Republican primary voters pick Trump as their first choice, with 31% selecting DeSantis, 6% Mike Pence, and 3% apiece for Nikki Haley, Tim Scott and Asa Hutchinson.

But while the Republican Party is enthusiastic over a Trump candidacy, the nation overall is not pleased with how the 2024 race is shaping up.  Substantial majorities don’t want Trump or President Biden running.

According to the survey, 70% of all Americans – including 51% of Democrats – believe Biden should not run for a second term.

About half of those who don’t want Biden to run say the president’s age is a “major” reason why.

As for Trump, 60% of Americans – including a third of Republicans – think the former president shouldn’t run in 2024.

[An Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll found only half of Democrats – 47% - think Biden should run again.  Overall, just 26% of Americans want him to run. The same survey found 70% of Americans, including 44% of Republicans, do not want Trump to make a run.]

The NBC News survey also found that a combined 41% of registered voters said they’d definitely or probably vote for Biden in the general election, versus 47% who say they’d vote for the eventual Republican nominee.

By party, 88% of Democratic voters say they’d definitely or probably vote for Biden, compared with just 22% of independents and only 3% of Republicans.

Separately, the national survey shows nearly six-in-10 adults – 58% - saying abortion should be legal, either always (38%) or most of the time (20%).

By contrast, a combined 38% believe abortion should be illegal, either with exceptions (32%) or without exceptions (6%).

The results are essentially unchanged from an NBC News poll released a year ago, in May 2022, when 60% said abortion should be always or mostly legal, versus 37% who said it should be illegal with or without exceptions.

Meanwhile, on the abortion topic*, all Republican candidates or assumed to be candidates are struggling with the issue and defining their position.  Trump himself has said it should be left up to the states, which drew a sharp rebuke last Thursday from the Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America group, which called it a “morally indefensible position for a self-proclaimed pro-life presidential candidate.”

So Trump, appearing via video to a gathering of Iowa evangelicals on Saturday, didn’t take a stance on a national ban, but instead ticked through a record as president that aimed to satisfy abortion opponents that form the core of evangelical Christians, who are particularly influential in Iowa’s first-in-the-nation Republican caucuses.

“Every promise to you I made as a candidate, I fulfilled as president,” he said.

The Republican field is trying to get a handle on how far to go in supporting restrictions on abortion to satisfy the conservative base in the primary but not to further alienate general election voters, most of whom, as the above numbers reveal, support keeping abortion legal.

“I’ll certainly support efforts to create a threshold of support for the unborn even at the national level,” Mike Pence said, adding he would support “the minimum of a 15-week ban.”

Sen. Tim Scott said he would support a federal law to prohibit abortions after 20 weeks of pregnancy.

Presidential candidate and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson said he would sign into law “a pro-life bill that comes to me that sets reasonable restrictions, but also has the appropriate exceptions.”

Gov. DeSantis recently signed a 6-week abortion ban in Florida.

Former Gov. Nikki Haley gave a speech on Tuesday “combining the moral case against abortion with a politics of persuasion and humility,” as the Wall Street Journal editorialized.

Haley described herself as “pro-life,” both “unapologetic and unhesitant about it,” but she tempered that conviction with political realism.  “The pro-life laws that have passed in strongly Republican states” – bills that ban the procedure after a heartbeat is detected at six weeks, for instance – “will not be approved at the federal level,” she said.

As the Journal points out, “She’s right.  A federal bill would need 60 votes to clear a Senate filibuster, and the GOP hasn’t held that many seats in the upper chamber since 1910….

“Compromise and incrementalism are often unpopular in movements rooted in moral conviction, but the pro-life right can’t dictate the law when most voters still think abortion should be legal.”

*Hours after I went to post last week, the U.S. Supreme Court blocked new restrictions set by lower courts on a widely used abortion pill, a decision welcomed by President Biden as his administration defends broad access to the drug in the latest legal battle over reproductive rights.

The justices, in a brief order, granted emergency requests by the Justice Department and the pill’s manufacturer Danco Laboratories to put on hold an April 7 preliminary injunction issued by U.S. District Judge Matthew Kacsmaryk in Texas.

The judge’s order would have greatly limited the availability of mifepristone while litigation proceeds in a challenge by anti-abortion groups to its federal regulatory approval.

Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito publicly dissented from the decision.  Alito authored the ruling overturning the landmark 1973 Roe v. Wade decision that had legalized abortion nationwide.

The current case now returns to the New Orleans-based 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, which is set to hear arguments on May 17.  The losing side after the 5th Circuit rules could appeal the case back to the Supreme Court.  The Food and Drug Administration, the agency that signs off on the safety of food products, drugs and medical devices, approved mifepristone in 2000.

Mifepristone is taken with another drug, misoprostol, to perform medication abortions, which accounts for more than half of all U.S. abortions.

The FDA has called mifepristone safe and effective as demonstrated over decades of use by millions of Americans.

Since last year’s Supreme Court decision, 12 states have put in place outright bans on abortion while many others prohibit abortion after a certain length of pregnancy.

--Donald Trump went on trial on Tuesday, where the writer E. Jean Carroll accuses the former president in a civil lawsuit of raping her in a department store dressing room in the mid-1990s.  Jury selection began in Manhattan federal court in the former Elle magazine advice columnist’s case, where Carroll is also accusing Trump of defamation.

Trump, 76, has denied raping Carroll, 79.  He called her claim a “hoax” and “complete Scam” in an October 2022 post on Truth Social.  Trump has also said she made up the encounter to promote her memoir and declared that she was “not my type!”

Carroll then opened the trial saying: “I’m here because Donald Trump raped me, and when I wrote about it, he lied and said it didn’t happen,” she told the court.  “He lied and shattered my reputation, and I’m here to try and get my life back.”

Carroll is seeking unspecified damages for what she calls significant pain and suffering, lasting psychological harm, and invasion of privacy.

--What a 24-hour period in the television news industry, from Sunday night until about noon on Monday.

Sunday night, NBCUniversal Chief Executive Jeff Shell was forced out after acknowledging an inappropriate relationship with a woman in the company, later identified as a CNBC International anchor, following a complaint from same that prompted an investigation, parent company Comcast Corp. said on Sunday.

“I had an inappropriate relationship with a woman in the company, which I deeply regret,” Shell, who is married, said in a statement.  “I’m truly sorry I let my Comcast and NBCUniversal colleagues down.”

Shell, who had been with Comcast for about two decades, left immediately.

Then came a shocker.  A statement from Fox News: “Fox News Media and Tucker Carlson have agreed to part ways.  We thank him for his service to the network as a host and prior to that as a contributor.

“Mr. Carlson’s last program was Friday April 21st. Fox News Tonight will air live at 8 PM/ET starting this evening as an interim show helmed by rotating Fox News personalities until a new host is named.”

There was no immediate comment from Carlson, but the move came less than a week after Fox Corp. settled a defamation lawsuit by Dominion Voting Systems for $787.5 million.

Carlson had been expected to testify in the Dominion trial.  Dominion had alleged that statements made on Carlson’s show after the 2020 election were defamatory.  The company claimed that messages between Carlson and his team were proof that they knew claims Dominion’s ballot-counting machines were used to manipulate the presidential election in favor of Democrat Joe Biden were false.

“Tucker Carlson Tonight” was Fox News’ top-rated primetime show, regularly attracting more than 3 million nightly viewers; Fox being the most-watched cable news network.

After the announcement of Carlson’s departure, a spokesperson for Donald Trump tweeted: “Fox News is controlled opposition.”  Trump gave an interview to Carlson earlier in the month after his indictment on alleged hush-money payments.

Then CNN parted ways with longtime host Don Lemon.

“Don will forever be a part of the CNN family, and we thank him for his contributions over the past 17 years,” said CNN CEO Chris Licht in a statement. “We wish him well and will be cheering him on in his future endeavors.”

Lemon had most recently been a co-host on CNN This Morning, which has been on the air for nearly six months and has done poorly in the ratings.

Licht said of the show, “We are committed to its success.”

Lemon said he was fired.

Days later in the case of Carlson, we learned via reporting from the New York Times that the day before Dominion’s defamation trial was set to begin, the Fox board of directors and top executives learned of private messages sent by Carlson that had been redacted in legal filings that showed him making highly offensive and crude remarks that went beyond inflammatory, often racist comments of his prime-time show and anything disclosed in the lead-up to the trial.

Fox’s trial lawyers had these messages for months, but the board and some senior executives just learned about their details for the first time, “setting off a crisis at the highest level of the company,” the Times reported.

“The discovery added pressure on the Fox leadership as it sought to find a way to avoid a trial where Mr. Carlson – not to mention so many others at the network – would be questioned about the contents of the private messages they exchanged in the aftermath of he 2020 presidential election.

“Two days after the board’s discovery, Fox settled the case for $787.5 million, believed to be the highest for a defamation trial.”

Carlson then spoke for the first time on Wednesday night, posting a video on Twitter.  He didn’t address his exit from Fox, but railed against “completely irrelevant” debates on TV and said: “Both political parties and their donors have reached consensus on what benefits them and they actively collude to shut down any conversation about it.”

Carlson added: “When honest people say what’s true, calmly and without embarrassment, they become powerful.  At the same time, the liars who have been trying to silence them shrink. They become weaker.”

So profound.  What the hell it means, I have no freakin’ clue, but this is classic Tucker…nothing but nonsense.

Meanwhile, the early ratings for “Fox News Tonight” – the program temporarily filling Tucker’s slot – came in at 1.7 million viewers with “Fox & Friends” host Brian Kilmeade, according to Nielsen data.

The number is 47% below what “Tucker Carlson Tonight” delivered in the 8 p.m. Eastern hour a week earlier on April 16.  Carlson averaged 3.2 million viewers in the first quarter of 2023.

Other Fox News shows saw their ratings decline without Tucker’s lead-in.

Newsmax was the beneficiary of Carlson fans looking for an alternative.

--Kevin Barron / Defense One

“For all the ways Tucker Carlson left his mark on U.S. politics, few are as startling as helping to turn right-wingers against the troops they once revered.

“In the olden days, the right would blame social progress (opposing gays in the military, women in combat, etc.) on the Democratic politicians who forced unwanted ‘social experiments’ upon the military. Today, they attack the military and its leaders.

“It was a regular theme of Carlson’s top-rated primetime show on Fox News, emboldened by President Trump’s open disdain for ‘my generals.’  Start at the top. We all know why the right hates Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley, who still draws fire on social media as a ‘traitor’ who declined to offer ‘total loyalty’ to his erratic, ill-informed, and authoritarian commander-in-chief.  After Trump’s successor kept Milley on as his senior military advisor, Carlson began targeting the chairman for his efforts to fight racism in the ranks.  ‘He’s not just a pig, he’s stupid,’ the TV host said after Milley rebutted false accusations of pushing critical race theory.  ‘The Pentagon is now the Yale faculty lounge, but with cruise missiles.  That should concern you,’ the Trinity College grad ranted to his viewers.

“As Biden officials rolled out their national-security policies, Carlson pressed his attack on the Pentagon’s uniformed leaders for supporting the administration’s approach to China, NATO expansion, the international order, and support for Ukraine.

“His audience heard it all….

“Night after night on his talk show, Carlson blasted the military in ways that previous conservative voices would not dare.  He hated the military’s efforts to champion diversity, teach about racism, open service to gay and transgender Americans, allow women in combat, and root out white nationalists and other extremists in uniform.  Beyond social issues, Carlson slammed military leaders for supporting Ukraine’s fight against Russian invaders.  In almost the same breath, he accused generals of trying to weaken the U.S. military and drum up war with China…

“Carlson mattered more to national security than most in Washington want to acknowledge.  Where he led, conservatives follow….

“But for all his attacks, Carlson was unable to completely undermine Americans’ confidence in their military.  The most recent Reagan Forum poll found that 80% of Biden voters and 83% of Trump voters said they still have either ‘a great deal’ or ‘some’ confidence in the U.S. military. That shows that even his audience knows the difference between the performance art of partisanship and the apolitical service to one’s country.”

--The leader of a Kenyan cult told his followers the world would end on April 15 and instructed them to starve themselves to be the first to go to heaven, a relative of cult members and hospital staff told Reuters on Wednesday.  Eighty-nine followers of the Good News International Church, which was based in a forest in eastern Kenya, are known to have died. The Kenyan Red Cross says more than 300 people have been reported missing.

The cult leader is in police custody and is refusing food and water.

If I knew the world was about to end, I certainly wouldn’t starve myself…no sirree…veal cutlet and spaetzle for me, baby, until my stomach exploded.

Actually, the cult leader, Paul Mackenzie, in saying the world would end on April 15, said he would be the last one to starve themselves and “he would lock the door,” according to the husband of a wife and six children who joined the cult and are feared dead.

Sadly, the husband, Stephen Mwiti, said he had raised the alarm with police, but felt that he had been ignored.

--We note the passing of actor, singer and activist Harry Belafonte, 96, who died at his New York home.

Aside from becoming the first Black Emmy winner and recording the first-ever million-selling full-length album, Belafonte was an outspoken voice for justice and racial equality in the United States and around the world.

A New York native, he was a close friend of Dr. Martin Luther King, and unapologetically embraced progressive political causes.  He became a prominent face in the American civil rights movement, calling loudly for an end to apartheid in South Africa and voiced his opposition to the war in Iraq.

He helped arrange Nelson Mandela’s post-prison visit to the U.S., including a speech before a jam-packed Yankee Stadium crowd in June 1990.

RIP.

--Spain had a week with temperatures as high as 40C (104F), shattering records for April, as officials laid out plans to open public swimming pools early and adapt school schedules. Coinciding with a long-running drought, the cause of the heatwave was “the progressive entry of a very warm and dry air mass from Africa coupled with atmospheric stability (meaning unchangeable weather) and strong sunshine,” Spain’s weather agency said on Tuesday.  In the city of Cordoba, they hit the highest temperature since Spanish meteorological official data-keeping began in 1961.

Spain has seen 36 consecutive months of below-average rainfall, with reservoirs at 50% of their capacity.

--Finally, as part of his farewell speech on Thursday’s final episode of CBS’ “The Late Late Show,” James Corden said some of the following:

“We started this show with Obama, then Trump and a global pandemic. I’ve watched America change a lot.  I’ve watched divisions grow and I’ve felt a sense of negativity boil over.” Corden implored his audience to “remember what America signifies to the rest of the world.  My entire life it has always been a place of optimism. …Yes, it has flaws but show me a place that doesn’t.  Show me a person that doesn’t.

“Just because somebody disagrees with you it doesn’t make them bad or evil.  We are all more the same than we are different.  There are so many people who are trying to stoke those differences and we have to try as best we can to look for the light, look for the joy.  If you do, it’s out there. That’s all this show has ever been about,” he said.

---

Pray for the men and women of our armed forces…and all the fallen, including the 3 soldiers killed when two U.S. Army helicopters collided and crashed Thursday in Alaska while returning from a training flight.  A fourth was injured.

Pray for Ukraine.

God bless America.

---

Gold $1998
Oil $76.73

Regular Gas: $3.62; Diesel: $4.14 [$4.14 / $5.12 yr. ago]

Returns for the week 4/24-4/28

Dow Jones  +0.9%  [34098]
S&P 500  +0.9%  [4169]
S&P MidCap  -0.3%
Russell 2000  -1.3%
Nasdaq  +1.3%  [12226]

Returns for the period 1/1/23-4/28/23

Dow Jones  +2.9%
S&P 500  +8.6%
S&P MidCap  +2.5%
Russell 2000  +0.4%
Nasdaq  +16.8%

Bulls 48.6
Bears 25.0

Hang in there.

Brian Trumbore

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