Week in Review

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Week in Review

10/08/2022

For the week 10/3-10/7

[Posted 7:30 PM ET, Friday]

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Edition 1,225

President Joe Biden said Russian President Vladimir Putin’s threats to use nuclear weapons threatens to bring about the biggest such risk since the Cuban Missile Crisis, adding Washington was “trying to figure out” Putin’s off ramp.

The White House has said repeatedly that it has seen no indication that Russia is preparing to use nuclear weapons despite what it calls Putin’s “nuclear saber-rattling.”

But Biden on Thursday made clear he was keeping a wary eye on Putin and how he might react as Ukraine’s military makes gains against Russian invaders.

“For the first time since the Cuban Missile Crisis, we have a direct threat to the use of nuclear weapons, if in fact things continue down the path they’ve been going,” Biden told Democratic donors in New York.

He also said, “we have not faced the prospect of Armageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban missiles crisis.”

Putin, said Biden, is “not joking when he talks about potential use of tactical nuclear weapons or biological or chemical weapons, because his military is, you might say, significantly underperforming.”

“I don’t think there’s any such thing as the ability to easily (use) a tactical nuclear weapon and not end up with Armageddon,” Biden said.

Biden said he and U.S. officials are searching for a diplomatic off-ramp.

“We’re trying to figure out what is Putin’s off-ramp… Where does he find a way out?  Where does he find himself in a position he does not, not only lose face but lose significant power in Russia,” Biden said.

In an interview with the BBC today, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russian officials have begun to “prepare their society” for the possible use of nuclear weapons, but added he does not believe Russia is ready to use them.

Speaking in English at the president’s office in Kyiv, Zelensky said: “They begin to prepare their society. That’s very dangerous.

“They are not ready to do it, to use it.  But they begin to communicate.  They don’t know whether they’ll use or not use it.  I think it’s dangerous to even speak about it.”

Then, in Ukrainian, he said through a translator: “What we see is that Russia’s people in power like life and thus I think the risk of using nuclear weapons is not that definite as some experts say, because they understand that there is no turning back after using it, not only the history of their country, but themselves as personalities.”

Meanwhile, in North Korea, the world awaits Kim Jong-un’s next move, likely a nuclear test, after six missile launches in 12 days, including one over Japan.

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Russia said on Saturday its troops had abandoned a key bastion in occupied eastern Ukraine, a stinging defeat that prompted one of President Putin’s most hawkish allies to call for Russia to consider resorting to low-grade nuclear weapons.

The fall of critical logistics hub Lyman came just a day after Putin proclaimed the annexation of four Ukrainian regions – including Donetsk, where Lyman is located – and placed them under Russia’s nuclear umbrella, at a ceremony that was condemned by Kyiv and the West as an illegitimate farce.

“In connection with the creation of a threat of encirclement, allied troops were withdrawn from the settlement of Krasny Liman to more advantageous lines,” Russia’s defense ministry said, using the Russian name of the town.

Ramzan Kadyrov, the leader of the southern Chechnya region who describes himself as a foot soldier of Putin, said he felt he had to speak out after the loss of the territory.

“In my personal opinion, more drastic measures should be taken, right up to the declaration of martial law in the border areas and the use of low-yield nuclear weapons,” Kadyrov wrote on Telegram.

Other top Putin allies, including former president Dmitry Medvedev, have suggested Russia may need to resort to nuclear weapons, but Kadyrov’s call was the most urgent and explicit.

Kadyrov also launched a blistering attack on Colonel-General Alexander Lapin, the commander overseeing Lyman, who he derided as a “mediocrity.”  Kadyrov said he personally had warned Russia’s army chief, General Valery Gerasimov, of a looming disaster.

“The general assured me he had no doubts about Lapin’s talent for leadership and did not think a retreat was possible in…Lyman and its surroundings,” he said.

Donetsk and Luhansk regions together make up the wider Donbas region that has been a major focus for Russia since soon after the start of Moscow’s invasion on Feb. 24 in what it called a “special military operation” to demilitarize its neighbor.

In his nightly address Saturday, President Zelensky, referring to the annexations, said: “Russia has staged a farce in Donbas.  An absolute farce, which it wanted to present as an alleged referendum,” adding that “now a Ukrainian flag is there.”

He then vowed that there would be more Ukrainian flags flying over the Donbas during the coming week as Kyiv’s counteroffensive surged forward.

“Our flag will be everywhere,” he said.

Sunday, in his video address to the people, Zelensky referred derisively to Putin’s attempt to declare Russian authority by fiat over areas now being taken back by Ukrainian troops.

“This, you know, is the trend.  Recently, someone somewhere held pseudo-referendums, and when the Ukrainian flag is returned, no one remembers the Russian farce with some pieces of paper and some annexations.”

Zelensky also announced Ukraine had regained full control of Lyman.

“Thank you to our militaries, our warriors,” he said.

As Putin has heightened the stakes with his nuclear rhetoric, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin cautioned Russia against following through with any escalatory retaliation linked to Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine.

“Again, it’s an illegal claim; it’s an irresponsible statement,” he said in an interview with CNN.  “Nuclear saber-rattling is not the kind of thing that we would expect to hear from leaders of large countries with capability.”

Austin said he expected Ukrainian forces to continue offensive operations aimed at recapturing all Russian-held territory, despite Putin’s recent order to mobilize 300,000 additional troops to bolster the fight.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, appearing on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” described the recapture of Lyman as an example of the progress Ukrainian forces were making “because of their bravery and skills, but, of course, also because of the advanced weapons that the United States and other allies are providing.”

The recent string of battlefield reversals may indicate that Russia’s military is reaching a “breaking point,” said H.R. McMaster, a retired three-star general who served as national security adviser during the Trump administration.

“What we might be at here is really at the precipice of really the collapse of the Russian army in Ukraine.  A moral collapse,” he told CBS.

But U.S. officials have also cautioned that despite Russia’s failure to achieve the initial goals of Putin’s invasion, including the capture of Kyiv, the ongoing mobilization may still present a formidable challenge to Ukraine.  Even with larger sums of Western aid, Ukraine’s military is dwarfed in size and weaponry by Russia’s.

Monday, the Pentagon gave an upbeat assessment as Ukraine moves to strengthen its military position ahead of the winter, emphasizing the progress the Ukrainian army was making in the southern region of Kherson.

In his Monday evening address, Zelensky said “more than 450 settlements in the Kharkiv region alone” had been liberated during Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the eastern part of the country.

“The occupiers left many mined areas, many tripwires, [and] almost all infrastructure was destroyed. The damage is colossal,” Zelensky said, but added, “There are new liberated settlements in several regions.”

The Institute for the Study of War said Kyiv’s forces have made “substantial gains around Lyman and in Kherson Oblast in the last 48 hours.  Ukrainian officials and a Russian-installed leader in the Kherson region said Ukrainian forces in the south reportedly destroyed 31 Russian tanks and one multiple rocket launcher

The Kremlin said on Tuesday it did not want to take part in “nuclear rhetoric” spread by the West after a media report that Russia was preparing to demonstrate its willingness to use nuclear weapons.

The Times newspaper reported on Monday that NATO was warning members that Putin was set to demonstrate his willingness to use nukes by carrying out a nuclear test on Ukraine’s border.

The normally reliable London-based paper also said Russia had moved a train thought to be linked to a unit of the defense ministry that was responsible for nuclear munitions.

Italian daily La Repubblica reported on Sunday that NATO had sent its members an intelligence report on the movements of the Belgorod nuclear submarine.  “Now it is back to dive in the Arctic seas and it is feared that its mission is to test for the first time the super-torpedo Poseidon, often referred to as ‘the weapon of the Apocalypse’,” La Repubblica said.  The Italian defense minister declined to comment on the matter, nor did NATO.

Britain’s foreign minister James Cleverly on Tuesday said Vladimir Putin’s sequence of strategic errors musts stop and that any use of nuclear weapons would lead to consequences.

Cleverly said he couldn’t go into detail on what Britain’s response would be.

The United States announced more weapons for Ukraine’s army, prompting a warning from Moscow that such a move risked a direct military clash between Russia and the West.  The latest security assistance package came as Kyiv claimed sweeping gains along two major battlefronts in an offensive rush to beat the arrival of fresh Russian troops and the looming winter.

The White House said it was shipping four more HIMARS precision rocket launchers, 32 artillery pieces, 75,000 artillery rounds and 200,000 rounds of small arms ammunition.

In a response, Russia’s ambassador to the United States warned that President Biden’s offer fueled the danger of a direct military clash between Russia and the West.

On the Telegram messaging app, ambassador Anatoly Antonov urged Washington to stop “provocative actions” that could lead to “serious consequences.”

“We perceive this as an immediate threat to the strategic interests of our country,” he said.

Tuesday, Zelensky announced that “dozens” of towns have been liberated from Russian occupation.  Ukrainian forces captured the town of Dudchany on the west bank of the Dnipro (Dnieper) River in their major advance in the Kherson region, and in the east Ukrainian forces were advancing after capturing Lyman, the main Russian bastion in the north of Donetsk province.

The pro-Russian leader in Donetsk said forces were forming a new defensive line around the town of Kreminna.

Russia is at risk of losing control of the strategic towns critical to retaining the city of Kherson and eventually Crimea, western officials said, but the fighting along the Dnipro River will not be easy.

Russia’s upper house of parliament voted Tuesday to approve the incorporation of four occupied Ukrainian regions into Russia, after a similar vote in the state Duma, Russia’s lower house.  No lawmakers in either house voted against the bill.  Putin then signed the legislation, which breaches international law and has been rejected by Ukraine, western states and top United Nations officials, and ignored by most of Moscow’s few allies.

But now Russia no longer has full control of any of the four provinces it claims to have annexed.  Kyiv’s defense ministry tweeted out: “Ukrainian marines are confidently advancing towards the Black Sea,” as Kyiv’s soldiers also retook more villages in Kharkiv province, and strengthened their position around Lyman.

Serhiy Haidai, Ukraine’s governor of Luhansk, said he hoped Ukrainian forces would soon be in a position to try to reclaim Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk, cities in the region that Russia occupied this summer after weeks of heavy fighting and major destruction.

“Soon we will ask the population of the occupied territories to evacuate from the cities, so they are not injured during the counterattack,” he said on social media.

“People will be able to spend the winter only in villages. After deoccupation, people living in cities will not be able to stay for winter… The centralized heating system cannot be repaired so quickly.”

The Russian military was forced to acknowledge that Kyiv’s forces had broken through in the Kherson region.  It said the Ukrainian army and its “superior tank units” had managed to “penetrate the depths of our defense” around some of the villages.

Zelensky signed a decree declaring the prospect of any Ukrainian talks with Vladimir Putin “impossible.”  The decree formalized comments made by Zelensky last Friday after Putin proclaimed the four occupied regions of Ukraine were to become part of Russia.

Also Tuesday, Ukraine said it may restart the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, Europe’s largest, to ensure its safety, the president of the company that operates the plant told the Associated Press.

The head of the plant had been kidnapped for a few days, but International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Grossi said he had been released after a detention that Ukraine blamed on Russia and called an act of terror.

Thursday, a series of Russian missiles demolished an apartment block in the city of Zaporizhzhia, killing at least eleven people, as discontent mounted within Russia about the handling of the war by the top brass.  The southern regional governor said it was a reminder of Moscow’s ability to strike targets even at a time when its forces have been pushed back in the south and east.  It was the second strike on the same spot that day.

President Zelensky, addressing a new security and energy cooperation forum, the European Political Community, accused Russia of deliberately targeting the same spot in succession.  “In Zaporizhzhia, after the first rocket strike today, when people came to pick apart the rubble, Russia conducted a second rocket strike.  Absolute vileness, absolute evil.”

In remarks to Australia’s Lowy Institute, Zelensky said NATO should launch preventive strikes on Russia to preclude its use of nuclear weapons.  Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denounced the comments as “an appeal to start yet another world war with unpredictable, monstrous consequences,” according to RIA news agency.

Zelensky then accused Russia on Thursday of “nuclear blackmail” over its seizure of the Zaporizhzhia power plant in southern Ukraine, after Putin ordered his government to take control of it.

“(The) capturing of Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant (stands) for nuclear blackmail and for exerting pressure on the world and on Ukraine,” Zelensky said in his video address to the Lowy think tank.

“You’re not using the weapons, but you can still be blackmailing by not having the nuclear power plant working for the people – the people are not receiving the electricity.”

Before the Russian invasion, the plant provided Ukraine with about one-fifth of its electricity.

Public criticism of Russia’s top military officials, once taboo, is growing.  On Thursday, a Russian-installed official in occupied Ukraine openly mused about the idea of Sergei Shoigu, the defense minister and an ally of Putin, shooting himself due to the shame of his military failures.

“Indeed, many say: if they were a defense minister who had allowed such a state of affairs, they could, as officers, have shot themselves,” Kirill Stremousov, the deputy head of the Russian-installed administration in Ukraine’s Kherson region, said in a video.

One of Russia’s most prominent talk show hosts, Vladimir Solovyov, said on his livestream channel: “Please explain to me what the general staff’s genius idea is now?  Do you think time is on our side?  They (the Ukrainians) have hugely increased their amounts of weapons… But what have you done in that time?”

Thursday night, President Zelensky said in his video address that Ukrainian forces had recaptured more than 500 sq km (195 square miles) of territory and dozens of settlements in the southern Kherson region alone since Oct. 1, as well as further success in the east.

Today, the British military said that Ukraine is amassing a huge arsenal of abandoned Russian weapons, and not just rifles and small arms.  “Over half of Ukraine’s currently fielded tank fleet potentially consists of captured vehicles,” the Brits said, noting that, “Ukraine has likely captured at least 440 Russian Main Battle Tanks, and around 650 other armored vehicles since the invasion.”

But apparent Iranian-made drones have been inflicting notable damage on Ukraine’s infrastructure lately.  The Wall Street Journal reported that the drones sound like motorcycles in the sky as they approached.

Iran denies it is sending “any weapons to Russia for use in the war against Ukraine,” according to the Iranian foreign minister in a call with his Finnish counterpart Friday.

--The aforementioned Sergei Shoigu said more than 200,000 of a planned 300,000 people had been drafted into the military since Putin ordered “partial mobilization” of reservists over two weeks ago – about the same number of Russian citizens who have fled to Kazakhstan during the same period, with tens of thousands of others entering Georgia, Finland and other states like Kyrgyzstan to escape conscription.

--While Russia’s long-range missiles and bombers are kept on constant alert, ready to fire in just minutes to ensure they aren’t destroyed by a pre-emptive strike, lower-yielding tactical nuclear weapons are locked up in about a dozen warehouses across Russia and it would take time to transport them to launchers.

“At a certain level of readiness, weapons are taken out of storage facilities and moved to some other place, for days if necessary.  This would be detected by satellites or other means,” said Pavel Podvig, a nuclear security expert at the UN Institute for Disarmament Research in Geneva, in an interview with Bloomberg.

U.S. and European officials have said there’s no sign of any such preparations and the nuclear threats have remained purely rhetorical.

But Israeli intelligence firm ImageSat International (ISI) has detected an “irregular presence” of Russian TU-160 and TU-95 strategic bombers deployed to the Olenya Airbase near Finland.

According to satellite images taken by the firm, four TU-160s were detected on Aug. 21st and three TU-95s were detected on Sept. 25th. There were no strategic bombers present at the airbase on Aug. 12th.

The bombers, capable of carrying cruise missiles and strategic nuclear weapons, have been active in the Ukrainian war since Moscow invaded in February.

But it is unclear why the bombers have been moved to the airbase.  Olenya is located on the Kola Peninsula near Murmansk. It houses Russia’s Northern Fleet and a significant number of arms and military hardware, including tactical and strategic nuclear weapons.

Ukraine’s military intelligence spokesperson Vadym Skibitsky said in an interview with The Guardian on Tuesday that Kyiv assesses the threat of Moscow using tactical weapons against the country as “very high.”

According to Skibitsky, the tactical strikes would likely target locations along the front lines where there is a high number of people, equipment, as well as command centers, and critical infrastructure.

--A coalition of oil-producing nations led by Russia and Saudi Arabia (OPEC+) announced Wednesday it will slash oil production by 2 million barrels per day, in a rebuke to President Biden that could push up gas prices worldwide, worsen the risk of a global recession and bolster Russia in its war in Ukraine.  Much more on this below.

--Pope Francis made an impassioned appeal on Sunday to Vladimir Putin to stop “this spiral of violence and death” in Ukraine, saying the crisis there was risking a nuclear escalation with uncontrollable global consequences.

In an address dedicated to Ukraine and made to thousands of people in St. Peter’s Square, Francis also appealed to Volodymyr Zelensky to be open to any “serious peace proposal.”

Francis said he was making an urgent appeal “in the name of God” for an end to the conflict and said it was “absurd” that the world was risking a nuclear conflict.

Speaking two days after Putin’s annexation of 15% of Ukraine, Francis also defended all countries’ right to “sovereign and territorial integrity.”

“My appeal goes above all to the president of the Russian Federation, begging him to stop this spiral of violence and death, even out of love for his own people,” Francis said.  “On the other side, pained by the enormous suffering of the Ukrainian population following the aggression it suffered, I address an equally hopeful appeal to the president of Ukraine to be open to a serious peace proposal,” he said. 

--Vlad the Impaler turned 70 today amid fawning congratulations from subordinates and a plea from Orthodox Patriarch Kirill for all to pray for the health of their leader.

Officials hailed Putin as the savior of modern Russia while the patriarch of Moscow and All Russia implored the country to say two days of special prayers so that God grants Putin “health and longevity.”

“We pray to you, our Lord God, for the head of the Russian state, Vladimir Vladimirovich, and ask you to give him your rich mercy and generosity, grant him health and longevity, and deliver him from all the resistances of visible and invisible enemies, confirm him in wisdom and spiritual strength, for all, Lord hear and have mercy,” Kirill said.

My own prayers take an entirely different bent.

Opinion….

Walter Russell Mead / Wall Street Journal

“Even as poorly trained, poorly led and poorly supplied Russian forces retreat on the battlefield, the danger that the war in Ukraine will erupt into a wider conflict continues to grow.  Vladimir Putin has responded to the weakening of his military position by ‘annexing’ four contested regions inside Ukraine, declaring that the conflict in Ukraine is a war for the survival of Russia, and raising the specter of a nuclear strike.  The West is taking note of these moves and the sabotage of Baltic pipelines connecting European consumers to Russian gas.  National security adviser Jake Sullivan has warned Russia that any use of nuclear weapons would have catastrophic consequences for Russian forces, and Jens Stoltenberg, secretary general of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, repeated that message Sunday morning.

“As the Biden administration scrambles to manage the most dangerous international confrontation since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, it must see the world through Mr. Putin’s eyes.  Only then can officials know how seriously to take the nuclear saber-rattling and develop an appropriate response.

“While American presidents going back to George W. Bush have failed to appreciate the depth and passion of Mr. Putin’s hostility to the U.S., the Russian president isn’t that hard to read.  Like a movie supervillain who can’t resist sharing the details of his plans for world conquest with the captured hero, Mr. Putin makes no secret of his agenda.  At Friday’s ceremony marking Russia’s illegal and invalid ‘annexation’ of four Ukrainian regions, he laid out his worldview and ambitions in a chilling and extraordinary speech that every American policy maker should read.

“Mr. Putin sees global politics today as a struggle between a rapacious and domineering West and the rest of the world bent on resisting our arrogance and exploitation.  The West is cynical and hypocritical, and its professed devotion to ‘liberal values’ is a sham.  The West is not a coalition of equals; it represents the domination of the ‘evil Anglo-Saxons’ over the Europeans and Japan.  Mr. Putin sees this American-led world system as the successor to the British Empire, and he blames the Anglo-Saxon or English-speaking powers for a host of evils, from the Atlantic slave trade to European imperialism to the use of nuclear weapons in World War II….

“Drawing on this widespread resentment of the liberal West allows Mr. Putin to appeal to currents of opinion in Russia and beyond that transcend normal ideological boundaries.  Russians who are nostalgic for the Soviet Union can happily cooperate with Russians longing for the czars. Orthodox Christian traditionalists can make common cause with anti-Western Islamists.  This is a hymn book from which fascists and communists can both happily sing.  It appeals to the illiberal fifth column Mr. Putin hopes to foster in the West as well as to Africans, Latin Americans and Asians who resent continued Western wealth and power.  Building a global front against Western and especially American power is central to Russian and Chinese foreign policy.

“Mr. Putin’s version of the anti-American worldview gives a special role to Russia.  ‘I would like to remind you that in the past, ambitions of world domination have repeatedly shattered against the courage and resilience of our people,’ Mr. Putin told his audience in the Kremlin (last) Friday.  In this view, Russia is the bulwark of the rest of the world against Western aggression and domination.  And for Mr. Putin, the conquest of Ukraine is an essential step in preserving Russia’s ability to carry out its historic mission to curb the ambitions of the imperial West.

“The Biden administration must remember that for Mr. Putin the battle in Ukraine is only one part of a global war against the American-led world order. And if Ukraine is going poorly for Mr. Putin, the global scene is more encouraging.  While NATO has been strengthened and – thanks to Finnish and Swedish accession – is about to be expanded, the global order, already shaken by the Covid pandemic, has taken a beating this year.  At least in part owing to Mr. Putin’s war, financial markets are in turmoil.  Europe faces a daunting mix of double-digit inflation and fuel costs high enough to make important energy-intensive industries economically unviable. Rising food, fuel and fertilizer prices across the Middle East, Latin America and Africa threaten significant social suffering and political unrest. Mr. Putin can reasonably hope that over time these problems will strain the West’s cohesion….

“The threat or use of nuclear weapons could split Europe between ‘peace at any price’ governments and governments of countries closer to Russia whose determination to resist nuclear blackmail would only grow.

“There is one other consideration.  Ever since taking power in Russia, Mr. Putin has been frustrated by his inability to parlay his country’s immense arsenal of nuclear weapons into real political power in the world.  Nuclear weapons made the Soviet Union a superpower; Mr. Putin wants that stature back.  Extracting a significant concession from the West by nuclear blackmail over Ukraine would be a major step in his goal of regaining the Soviet Union’s place in world affairs.

“None of this is good news for the Biden administration. Yielding to Russian blackmail over Ukraine would be a massive blow to American credibility and power overseas and would look weak to Americans who have cheered Ukraine on.  Yet deterring a Russian attack involves the risk of a deepening American engagement in an escalating war.

“Mr. Putin’s armies are in headlong retreat across much of Ukraine. His support at home looks threatened.  But the threat he poses to vital American interests must not be underestimated, and the threat that he will use nuclear weapons in Ukraine is real.”

Alexei Navalny / Washington Post…Navalny wrote this essay from prison; conveyed to The Post by his legal team.

“What does a desirable and realistic end to the criminal war unleashed by Vladimir Putin against Ukraine look like?

“If we examine the primary things said by Western leaders on this score, the bottom line remains: Russia (Putin) must not win this war.  Ukraine must remain an independent democratic state capable of defending itself.

“This is correct, but it is a tactic.  The strategy should be to ensure that Russia and its government naturally, without coercion, do not want to start wars and do not find them attractive.  This is correct, but it is a tactic.  The strategy should be to ensure that Russia and its government naturally, without coercion, do not want to start wars and do not find them attractive. This is undoubtedly possible.  Right now the urge for aggression is coming from a minority in Russian society.

“In my opinion, the problem with the West’s current tactics lies not just in the vagueness of their aim, but in the fact that they ignore the question: What does Russia look like after the tactical goals have been achieved?  Even if success is achieved, where is the guarantee that the world will not find itself confronting an even more aggressive regime, tormented by resentment and imperial ideas that have little to do with reality?  With a sanctions-stricken but still big economy in a state of permanent military mobilization?  And with nuclear weapons that guarantee impunity for all manner of international provocations and adventures?

“It is easy to predict that even in the case of a painful military defeat, Putin will still declare that he lost not to Ukraine but to the ‘collective West and NATO,’ whose aggression was unleashed to destroy Russia.

“And then, resorting to his usual postmodern repertoire of national symbols – from icons to red flags, from Dostoevsky to ballet – he will vow to create an army so strong and weapons of such unprecedented power that the West will rue the day it defied us, and the honor of our great ancestors will be avenged.

“And then we will see a fresh cycle of hybrid warfare and provocations, eventually escalating into new wars.

“To avoid this, the issue of postwar Russia should become the central issue – and not just one element among others – of those who are striving for peace.  No long-term goals can be achieved without a plan to ensure that the source of the problems stops creating them.  Russia must cease to be an instigator of aggression and instability.  That is possible, and that is what should be seen as a strategic victory in this war.”

Navalny then talks about the need for Russia to adopt a parliamentary republic.  “That is the only way to stop the endless cycle of imperial authoritarianism.”

“War is a relentless stream of crucial, urgent decisions influenced by constantly shifting factors. Therefore, while I commend European leaders for their ongoing success in supporting Ukraine, I urge them not to lose sight of the fundamental causes of war.  The threat to peace and stability in Europe is aggressive imperial authoritarianism, endlessly inflicted by Russia upon itself.  Postwar Russia, like post-Putin Russia, will be doomed to become belligerent and Putinist again.  This is inevitable as long as the current form of the country’s development is maintained.  Only a parliamentary republic can prevent this.  It is the first step toward transforming Russia into a good neighbor that helps to solve problems rather than create them.”

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Wall Street and the Economy

There have been a lot of stupid rallies on Wall Street over the years, and the one we saw Monday and Tuesday is right up there, the biggest-2-day rally since April 2020.

Granted, after a seven-week slide that saw the S&P 500 plummet 16% and Nasdaq 19%, you’d expect a snapback rally or two.

But the reason given for the surge in stocks was a weaker than expected ISM manufacturing number for September, 50.9, 50 the dividing line between growth and contraction, and a prices paid component that fell a bit.

So the feeling was through this single number, the Federal Reserve wouldn’t be raising its benchmark funds rate as much as thought in November and December.

Well, this was indeed rather idiotic.  The Fed is focused on the consumer and producer price data, as well as its key figure, the PCE, or personal consumption expenditures index, which a week ago came in at 6.2% on headline, and 4.9% on core, both above forecasts and well above the Fed’s 2% target.

Next week we have the critical consumer and producer price data for September, prior to the Nov. 1-2 Fed meeting, where it is still expected to hike rates another 75 basis points.  Every single Fed speaker of the past few weeks has been on the same page, and then on Oct. 28, we’ll have another reading on PCE.  This is what matters, not an ISM reading at this point.

Meanwhile, we had a jobs report today for September, and this is indeed part of the Fed’s equation, but it didn’t show any particular weakness that might give some Fed members pause.

Nonfarm payrolls rose 263,000, the lowest since April, but the unemployment rate fell to 3.5% vs. 3.7% prior, and average hourly wages ticked down to 5.0% annualized.

In other data, the September ISM non-manufacturing (services) reading was a strong 56.7, while August readings on construction spending and factory orders came in below expectations.

Freddie Mac’s key 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell slightly to 6.66% from last week’s multi-year high of 6.70%.  A year ago it was 2.99%.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow barometer for the third quarter is 2.9%, after being negative in the first two quarters of the year.

Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, told an audience at Georgetown University on Thursday that the IMF is once again lowering its projections for global economic growth in 2023, projecting world economic growth lower by $4 trillion through 2026.

“Things are more likely to get worse before it gets better,” she said, adding that the Russian invasion of Ukraine that began in February has dramatically changed the IMF’s outlook on the economy.  “The risks of recession are rising,” she said, calling the current economic environment a “period of historic fragility.”

Georgieva said the IMF estimates that countries making up one-third of the world economy will see at least two consecutive quarters of economic contraction this or next year and added that the institution downgraded its global growth projections already three times.  It now expects 3.2% for 2022 and 2.9% for 2023.

Georgieva said, “tightening monetary policy too much and too fast – and doing so in a synchronized manner across countries – could push many economies into prolonged recession.”

The updated World Economic Outlook of the IMF is set to be released next week.

Europe and Asia

We had important PMI data from S&P Global for September in the eurozone, with manufacturing at 48.4, a 27-month low, and the service sector reading at 48.8, a 19-month low.

Germany: 47.8 mfg., 45.0 services
France: 47.7, 52.9
Italy: 48.3, 48.8
Spain: 49.0, 48.5
Ireland: 51.5, 54.1
Netherlands: 49.0 mfg.
Greece: 49.7 mfg.

UK: 48.4, 50.0

As in the above figures were miserable.

Chris Williamson / S&P Global

“Any hopes of the eurozone avoiding recession are further dashed by the steepening drop in business activity signaled by the PMI.  Not only is the survey pointing to a worsening economic downturn, but the inflation picture has also deteriorated, meaning policymakers face an increasing risk of a hard landing as they seek to rein in accelerating inflation.

“Business activity has now deteriorated for three successive months, indicating falling GDP, with the rate of decline gathering momentum over the third quarter.  A worsening of business expectations for the months ahead and a worryingly steep loss of orders currently point to an even sharper decline in GDP in the fourth quarter.

“Soaring inflation, linked to the energy crisis and war in Ukraine, is destroying demand at the same time that business confidence is slumping to levels not seen since the region’s debt crisis in 2012, excluding pandemic lockdowns.  Companies and households alike are therefore cutting back on discretionary spending and investment in preparation for a harsh winter.”

Separately, August retail sales in the eurozone rose 0.3% over July, but were down 2.0% over Aug. 2021, per Eurostat.

Britain:  The euro bond market has been going nuts, not just because of record inflation readings, but in no small part due to policies in the United Kingdom, where new Prime Minister Liz Truss was forced on Monday into a humiliating U-turn after less than a month in power, reversing a cut to the highest rate of income tax that helped spark turmoil in financial markets and a rebellion in her party.

Finance Minister Kwasi Kwarteng said the decision to scrap the top rate tax cut had been taken with “some humility and contrition,” after his party’s lawmakers reacted with alarm to a move that favored the rich during an economic downturn.

Elected by the party members but not the broader public, Truss and Kwarteng had sought to jolt the economy out of more than a 10-year of stagnant growth with a 1980s-style plan to cut taxes and regulation, all funded by vast government borrowing.

Investors – used to Britain being a pillar of the global financial community – were aghast; selling British assets at such a rate that the pound hit a record low against the dollar and the cost of government borrowing soared, forcing the Bank of England to intervene to shore up markets.

Many of Truss’ fellow Conservative party said the prime minister, in office since just Sept. 6, was already on “survive a day at a time” mode as confidence and credibility drained away.

Turning to Asia…nothing of note from China, some data being posted tonight after this column goes up.

In Japan, the September manufacturing PMI was 50.8 vs. 51.5 in August.  The service-sector reading came in at an improved 52.2 vs. 49.5 owing to looser Covid policies.

August household spending, a key figure here, rose 5.1% year-over-year, but this was less than expected.

South Korea’s September manufacturing reading was a miserable 47.3, with September exports up just 2.8% Y/Y, the slowest expansion since Oct. 2020.

Taiwan’s September manufacturing reading was a putrid 42.2.

Street Bytes

--Stocks ended their latest 3-week losing streak, though it was a bit deceiving.  The Dow Jones rose 2% to 29296, while the S&P 500 gained 1.5% and Nasdaq 0.7%.

Today was ugly, and it didn’t help that both Advanced Micro Devices (whose shares cratered 13%) and Samsung warned they will miss on Q3 revenue by a mile, citing deteriorating demand for PCs, while FedEx, in an internal memo, said it plans to lower volume forecasts because its customers plan to ship fewer holiday packages.

We’ve now entered earnings season and expect more bad news in terms of outlooks.

--Global institutional funds withdrew $11 billion in September from regional equity markets, according to a report from Goldman Sachs, bringing the cumulative net outflows to $111 billion in emerging Asia ex-China since the market peak in January.  The exodus of portfolio capital from the region has now exceeded the net selling of $93 billion in the same markets (India, Taiwan, Asean) during the global financial crisis in 2008, Goldman said.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index, which lost 14% in the third quarter, has now suffered five consecutive quarters of losses, its longest streak since the 2008 crisis.

--U.S. Treasury Yields

6-mo. 4.07%  2-yr. 4.31%  10-yr. 3.88%  30-yr. 3.84%

The yield on the 10-year is at its highest weekly close of the year, and since 2008.

Overseas, the German bund’s yield last week had risen to 2.35%, then down to 1.82% this Tuesday, before closing today at 2.19%, immense volatility.

The British 10-year went from 4.50% ten days ago, down to 3.80% Tuesday, only to finish the week at 4.22%.

--America’s gross national debt exceeded $31 trillion for the first time on Tuesday, as the nation’s long-term fiscal picture has darkened amid rising interest rates.

The Treasury Department revealed this in a report Tuesday, as historically low interest rates are being replaced with much higher borrowing costs, making America’s debts more costly over time.

“So many of the concerns we’ve had about our growing debt path are starting to show themselves as we both grow our debt and grow our rates of interest,” said Michael A. Peterson, the chief executive officer of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, which promotes deficit reduction.  “Too many people were complacent about our debt path in part because rates were so low.”

Higher rates could add an additional $1 trillion to what the federal government spends on interest payments this decade, according to Peterson Foundation estimates.  That is on top of the record $8.1 trillion in debt costs that the Congressional Budget Office projected in May.  Expenditures on interest could exceed what the United States spends on national defense by 2029.

The CBO warned about America’s mounting debt load in a report earlier this year, saying that investors could lose confidence in the government’s ability to repay what it owes.  Those worries, the budget office said, could cause “interest rates to increase abruptly and inflation to spiral upward.”

Long-time readers know I have long been the boy crying wolf on this topic, and I’ve been way too early by years.  But now everyone sees it.  Bye-bye many of your favorite government programs, is the bottom line…benefit cuts and the like.

--OPEC, which controls almost a third of world oil output agreed to reduce their crude production levels by 2 million barrels a day starting next month (or about 2% of global supply), but that’s not a guarantee that prices will climb much further than they did on the news.

The group is worried about falling demand. Expensive energy has led to cuts in consumption.  China’s Covid and property woes, and rising interest rates around the world, augur global recession.  And the strong dollar, in which oil prices are denominated, makes crude harder to afford outside the U.S.

But whether the supply cuts actually come to fruition depends on who is supposed to reduce their output.  Most OPEC producers already pump less oil than their targets suggest they should.

The cuts are said to begin in November and OPEC said the downward adjustment would be based on the August 2022 required production levels.

West Texas Intermediate (and global benchmark Brent crude) both settled at their highest prices since mid-September after the announcement Wednesday, $93.20 on the former, up over $13 on the week.

President Biden said he is “disappointed by the shortsighted decision” to cut production quotas while the global economy is dealing with the continued negative impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

OPEC+ said it will no longer hold monthly meetings and instead meet every six months, though its next gathering is set for Dec. 4.  The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, which reviews the oil market, will meet every two months, instead of monthly.

In a press conference after the OPEC+ decision, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, said that the group will continuously prove that OPEC+ is “not only here to stay,” but here to bring out stability for the oil market.

OPEC+ production (including Russia) totaled 42.84 million barrels per day in August, according to a Platts survey by S&P Global Commodity Insights released in early September; the most since the alliance opened the taps to produce 47.56 million barrels per day in April 2020.

However, the 19 countries with quotas under the OPEC+ agreement fell 3.61 million barrels short of their production targets in August, “the widest gap in the alliance’s nearly five-year history,” according to S&P Global Commodity Insights.

A leading expert, Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at the Oil Price Information Service, told Barron’s that the OPEC+ cut ultimately only amounts to 800,000 barrels to 900,000 barrels a day since “many cartel members do not have a reasonable capability of hiking output.”

But, when the United States stops selling from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Kloza notes, “one could say that it leads to about 1.9 million barrels a day less crude on the market,” with SPR sales around 1 million bpd and OPEC committing to a cut that’s about 850,000 barrels a day in real terms.

Separately, Europe may limp through the cold winter months with the help of brimming natural gas tanks despite a plunge in deliveries from former top supplier Russia only to enter a deeper energy crisis next year, according to Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency.

European countries have filled storage tanks to around 90% of their capacity after Russia cut gas supplies in response to Western sanctions imposed over its invasion of Ukraine.

The European Union is still considering imposing a price cap.

“With gas storages almost at 90%, Europe will survive the coming winter with just some bruises as long as there are no political or technical surprises,” Birol told journalists in Finland.  But the real challenges will begin in February or March when storage needs to be filled again after high winter demand has drained them to 25%-30%.

[More on the oil topic below under “Biden Agenda.”]

--According to a report this week from KPMG on business-leader outlooks, a looming recession is gaining more credence from the C-Suite, but calls back to the office for full-time work are a lot softer.

Most CEOs across the globe shared the view that a recession is on the horizon and coming sooner than later.

Nine in ten CEOs in the U.S. (91%) believe a recession will arrive in the coming 12 months, while 86% of CEOs globally feel the same way, according to the findings from the international audit, tax and advisory firm.

In America, half of the CEOs (51%) say they’re considering workforce reductions during the next six months – and in the global survey overall, eight in ten CEOs say the same.

As a piece in Barron’s notes, “One caveat for people who like working from home: Remote workers may find it in their best interest to show their faces in the office as their job security becomes more uncertain.”

It is “likely” and/or “extremely likely” that remote workers will be laid off first, according to a majority (60%) of 3,000 managers polled by beautiful.ai, a presentation software provider.  Another 20% were undecided, and the remaining 20% said it wasn’t likely.

When asked how they foresaw their company’s working arrangements in three years for jobs traditionally in an office, nearly half of U.S. CEOs (45%) said it would be a hybrid mix of -in-person and remote work.  One-third (34%) said the jobs would still be in-office, and 20% said it was fully remote.

--TSA checkpoint travel numbers vs. 2019

10/6…91 percent of 2019 levels
10/5…89
10/4…89
10/3…88
10/2…91
10/1…98
9/30…86
9/29…84

--Tesla Inc. on Sunday announced its third-quarter electric vehicle deliveries were lower than expected, citing logistics challenges.  Tesla delivered 343,830 EVs, while analysts on average had expected 359,162, according to Refinitiv.  A year earlier Tesla delivered 241,300 units.

Tesla upgraded production lines at Shanghai after a resurgence in Covid-19 cases forced a suspension at the plant and fueled the first dip in deliveries after a nearly two-year long record run.  However, the scheduled upgrade, along with disruptions at its suppliers’ factories hurt most production in July.

Tesla said it delivered 325,158 Model 3 compact cars and Model Y SUVs, as well as 18,672 of its Model S and Model X premium vehicles to customers during the quarter.

The company actually produced 365,923 cars, but the spread between sales and production was large for Tesla, and it seems the bulk of the cars were headed for delivery in Europe. 

But bulls will take the spread and add the units to their fourth quarter estimates, as a vehicle doesn’t count as a delivery until it is in the hands of a customer.

Despite the record for deliveries, it wasn’t good enough to support the shares, which fell to $222.40 (from $287 on Sept. 28), partly due to another Elon Musk-related issue below.

--Ford Motor is hiking the price of its electric F-150 Lightning Pro truck for the 2023 model year by nearly 11%, seeking to cushion the hit from ongoing supply chain snags and decades-high inflation, the automaker said on Wednesday.

The price of the new model has been set at $51,974 compared to $46,974 earlier, due to “ongoing supply chain constraints, rising material costs and other market factors,” the company said.

Other U.S. automakers have raised prices, squeezed by inflationary pressures and supply chain concerns that have been worsened by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Those who have already scheduled their order, including commercial and government customers, will not be affected by the hike, Ford said.

--Hurricane Ian exposed the severe issue of the home-insurance market in Florida, which could become a real political headache for Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis as he gears up for a bid for the White House in 2024.

Long before the storm, Florida’s property insurance system was a mess.  Hundreds of thousands of Florida homeowners lost their private insurance policies over the last two years, after a dozen companies left the market in the face of billion-dollar annual losses, including several that went under.

More than a million Florida homeowners have been forced to turn to Citizens Property Insurance, the state’s publicly funded “insurer of last resort” – meaning that state taxpayers could be on the hook for billions of dollars’ worth of hurricane damage.  Early estimates on property are all over the place, but call it $50 billion, not including flood damage covered by the National Flood Insurance Program, which provides most flood policies.

However, only a small number of residences in two of Florida’s hardest-hit inland counties are covered by flood insurance.  The percentage of protected homes is higher in coastal areas that sustained the most damage, but still, is over 50% in just one of the affected counties, according to an analysis by Neptune Flood, a private-sector flood-insurance provider.

In all locations pummeled by Ian, the percentage of homes covered by flood policies is down from five years ago.

Folks lacking flood insurance will be forced to seek federal disaster assistance in the form of grants and loans.

Consider the amount of rain that fell at the Sanford Orlando International Airport in Seminole, 15 inches, or 50% higher than the previous record of 10 inches in 24 hours set in 1992, according to the National Weather Service.

About 97% of residences in Seminole County and 98% in Orange County, home to Orlando, don’t have flood insurance, according to Neptune.

Across Florida, over the past five years, the portion of homes covered by flood policies has declined to 15.4% in August from 17.8% in 2017.

Annual premiums already cost Florida homeowners $4,200 on average, triple the national average rate.

Democrat Charlie Crist, DeSantis’ challenger in November’s gubernatorial election, on Monday called the incumbent “the worst property insurance governor in Florida history, period.”

--I am totally bored by the Elon Musk / Twitter story at this point.  Musk proposed to proceed with his original $44 billion bid to take Twitter private, security filings showed on Tuesday, calling for an end to a lawsuit by the social media company that could have forced him to pay up, whether he wanted to or not…and that’s the bottom line.

An agreement would put the world’s richest person in charge of one of the most influential media platforms and end months of litigation that damaged Twitter’s brand and fed Musk’s reputation for erratic behavior.

Musk would take over a company he originally committed to buying in April, but soon soured on.  Late on Tuesday he tweeted that buying Twitter would speed up his ambition to create an “everything app” called X. 

The renewed offer comes ahead of a highly anticipated face-off between Musk and Twitter in Delaware’s Court of Chancery on Oct. 17, in which the social media company was set to seek an order directing Musk to close the deal for $44 billion.  Musk sent Twitter a letter on Monday saying he intended to proceed with the deal on the original terms if the Delaware judge stayed the proceedings.

The only reason it seems Musk chose to abandon his fight was his scheduled deposition.

“He was about to get deposed and a lot of uncomfortable facts were going to come out,” said Eric Talley, a professor at Columbia Law School.

Musk had said in July he could walk away without penalty because the number of bot accounts was much higher than Twitter’s estimate of less than 5% of users. Twitter’s legal team on Sept. 27 said that scientists employed by Musk estimated the number of fake accounts on the platform at 5.3% and 11%.

Musk said late Tuesday in a tweet that “Twitter probably accelerates X by 3 to 5 years.”  That echoed suggestions he made to Twitter staff in June about creating a “super app” or marketplace for different apps and features like WeChat, which is popular in China.  Musk also has said he wants to create a money transfer feature.

A settlement between the two sides would revive fears among Twitter’s users about Musk’s plans for the platform, such as reactivating Donald Trump’s account, which Twitter banned after the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol.

So Thursday, the Delaware judge presiding over the case postponed a trial, adding fresh uncertainty to efforts to close the $44 billion deal.

The surprise ruling, granting a request by Musk, effectively ends negotiations for a settlement that would allow the parties to quickly close the deal.  Musk now has until Oct. 28 to do so.

Chancellor Kathaleen McCormick said if the deal doesn’t close by that date, the parties should contact her to schedule a November trial.  She had previously denied attempts by Musk to delay the trial and had fast-tracked it at Twitter’s request.

Late Thursday, in a filing, Musk said he expected to have the financing in place to close the deal around Oct. 28.  Twitter responded by calling his request an “invitation to further mischief and delay.”

Lawyers for both sides had been trying to reach an agreement in the next few days that would pause the trial and avert a deposition from Musk, which was scheduled for Monday.

The idea was to put the litigation on hold until the deal closes, at which point it would be dropped.

Twitter said it now looks forward to closing the transaction at the originally agreed upon $54.20 a share by Oct. 28.  The stock closed the week at $49.11.

--Micron Technology Inc. announced it would invest up to $100 billion over 20 years in a chip manufacturing facility in upstate New York, including $20 billion this decade.

Micron said the giant factory will be built in Clay, N.Y., about 15 miles north of Syracuse.  Micron said site preparation would begin next year, construction in 2024 and production in volume after 2025.

Over the next 20 years, Micron says, the project will generate nearly 50,000 jobs – about 9,000 Micron employees and more than 40,000 jobs for suppliers, contractors and others.

President Biden praised the company’s move as “another win for America.”   Micron’s move comes after Biden signed the CHIPS and Science Act into law in August, which included a provision of $52.7 billion in subsidies for U.S. semiconductor production and research.  The act aims to revitalize domestic chip manufacturing and boost U.S. competitiveness with China.

One other beneficiary will be winter outerwear stores.  Buy out a local store in the area now and sit back and watch the store traffic explode in 2024, if not next year, mused your editor.

--Similar to the above, President Biden on Thursday touted IBM Corp.’s plans to invest $20 billion in the New York suburbs over the next decade in development and manufacturing of semiconductors, mainframe technology, artificial intelligence and quantum computing.

Last month, the president traveled to Ohio to speak at the site of Intel Corp.’s planned $20 billion semiconductor manufacturing facility as he seeks to capitalize on the investment announcements ahead of the midterm elections.

--During the summer commercial tenants signed leases for 9.2 million square feet of space in Manhattan, the most activity since before the pandemic, in the last quarter of 2019, according to new research from the firm Colliers.  And the total also represented a big step up from the second quarter, when 7.3 million square feet were leased.

The flurry seems to be removing supply.  Manhattan’s availability rate – referring to rooms that are empty or about to come to market – fell to 16.4% last quarter, down from 17.2% in the April-through-June period, Colliers said.

But, at the same time, rents softened to $74 per square foot annually in Manhattan, down from around $76 per square foot the previous quarter, the report said.  And some neighborhoods like the Financial District continue to struggle.

--Peloton Interactive Inc. said it plans to cut about 500 more job, roughly 12% of its remaining workforce, in the company’s fourth round of layoffs this year as the fitness-equipment maker tries to reverse mounting losses.

CEO Barry McCarthy, who took over in February, said he is giving the unprofitable company about another six months to significantly turn itself around.

After the latest cuts, Peloton will have roughly 3,800 employees globally, less than half the number the company employed at its peak last year.

But McCarthy said he sees evidence that Peloton can succeed, and that it isn’t at risk of running low on funds after drastically reducing the amount of cash it is burning through by cutting jobs, outsourcing all manufacturing and reducing costly unsold inventory.

--Ray Dalio, the billionaire founder of Bridgewater Associates, has finally completed the succession process at his hedge fund, something he started back in 2010.  On Sept. 30, he transferred all of his voting rights to the board of directors and stepped down as one of Bridgewater’s three co-chief investment officers, ending his run at the world’s largest hedge fund.

--Kim Kardashian was fined $1.26 million by the Securities and Exchange Commission as part of a broad regulatory investigation into crypto-hawking celebrities.

A-listers including Matt Damon, Tom Brady and Larry David, who appeared in ads for cryptocurrency exchanges during this year’s Super Bowl – as well as stars like Mike Tyson and Reese Witherspoon who participated in so-called NFT drops – could be casualties of a crypto crackdown from the SEC.

“This is a litigation strategy of going after public figures – now everyone in Hollywood will notice,” Columbia law professor and securities expert John Coffee told the New York Post.  [“SEC Chair] Gary Gensler isn’t afraid of publicity.”

This is different than a celebrity hawking goods on QVC and infomercials because the celebs are pushing financial products.  A little different from skincare.

Kardashian’s flagrant promotion of an individual crypto token was effectively low-hanging fruit for regulators, experts said.  But celebs who promoted sites like Crypto.com and FTX – where customers can trade a wide swath of cryptocurrencies – could also be targets.

Gensler has said many cryptocurrencies are operating as “unregistered securities” and the SEC could therefore interpret celebs who promote sites for trading the digital coins as violating securities laws, according to crypto expert Garrick Hileman.  He added that David, Damon and Brady should be “worried” about the Kardashian news.

I don’t know why LeBron James escapes scrutiny in all the articles I’ve read on Kardashian’s settlement with the SEC.  He’s been on the air more than anyone, with his son, hawking Crypto.com.  I’m not sure if it’s because he’s supposedly hawking blockchain technology more than a crypto platform, but that’s not really the case.

Whatever.  As you can tell from what I have written on the topic generally over the years, I am unimpressed writ large.

Foreign Affairs, Part II

China: As the Communist Party gears up for its 20th congress, which starts on October 16, a national pandemic control expert said on Thursday that now is not the time to relax Covid-19 controls in China, with the risk of a massive outbreak if the nation does not continue to actively limit the spread of infections.

Wang Guiqiang, director of the infectious diseases department at Peking University First Hospital, told Science and Technology Daily that Omicron Ba.5 – responsible for China’s current outbreak – was less pathogenic but more infectious than previous variants.

A large-scale epidemic would inevitably lead to deaths in high-risk populations and the elderly “would bear the brunt” if controls were relaxed, he said.

Wang said younger people infected with the virus might have mild or no symptoms, but they could still pass it on to older family members who may not be fully vaccinated, putting them in danger.

China’s task has been complicated by an increase in travel and social gatherings during the National Day “golden week” holiday which started on October 1 as sporadic outbreaks were emerging across the country.

A commentary by party mouthpiece People’s Daily on Friday reinforced Wang’s message, saying the nation needed to “firmly guard the bottom line of no large-scale outbreak of Covid-19.”

A big issue remains rate of vaccinations. As of Sept. 7, 90 percent of China’s total population had received two does of vaccine, mostly domestically produced.  However, about 64 percent of the elderly cohort had only received a booster shot, and that’s the worry. [South China Morning Post]

North Korea: South Korea and the United States began joint maritime exercises with a U.S. aircraft carrier Friday, South Korea’s military said, a day after it scrambled fighter jets in reaction to an apparent North Korean bombing drill.  The U.S. strike group already participated in trilateral missile defense exercises with warships from Japan and South Korea this week, prompted by North Korea’s launch of a ballistic missile that overflew part of Japan.

Thursday, North Korea fired two short-range ballistic missiles into the sea in the direction of Japan, after the return of a U.S. aircraft carrier to the region and a UN Security Council meeting in response to the North’s recent launches.

Thursday’s missile launch was the sixth in 12 days and the first after Tuesday’s intermediate-range missile over Japan.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida told reporters: “This absolutely cannot be tolerated.”

Wednesday, the United States accused China and Russia of enabling North Korean leader Kim Jong-un by blocking attempts to strengthen UN Security Council sanctions on Pyongyang over its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs.

U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, said: “In short, two permanent members of the Security Council have enabled Kim Jong-un.”

As the Centre for Strategic and International Studies noted this week, previous sequences of North Korean ballistic missile tests have been followed by a nuclear test.

U.S. and South Korean officials have been warning for months that a seventh nuclear test is imminent, while satellite imagery of a fully primed Punggye-ri testing site suggests the only question now is one of political timing.

“At this point, for Kim Jong-un to turn back and halt provocations would seem counterproductive to his interests, not to mention the amount of resources squandered to conduct these weapons tests,” said Soo Kim, an analyst at the Rand Corporation.

“We are in a cycle of weapons provocations.  What’s left, essentially, is an intercontinental ballistic missile test and potentially the long-awaited seventh nuclear test.”

As for Tuesday’s intermediate range ballistic missile over the island of Japan, it was the longest demonstrated range by any North Korean missile test ever.  Japanese officials said the missile was airborne for about 22 minutes, and according to South Korea’s military, “the missile flew some 4,500 kilometers (2,800 miles) at an apogee of around 970 km at a top speed of Mach 17.”

“It definitely reaches Guam,” said nuclear scholar Jeffrey Lewis, and added, “The [IRBM] Hwasong-12 is the missile Kim threatened to use to bracket the island” back in 2017.

Iran: Protesters rallied across Iran in a third week of unrest following the death of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old from Iranian Kurdistan, and strikes were reported throughout the country’s Kurdish region.

The protests have spiraled into the biggest show of opposition to Iran’s clerical authorities since 2019, with dozens killed in the unrest.  Supporters have also been demonstrating in the likes of London and Paris.

In Iran, social media posts showed rallies in large cities including Tehran, Isfahan, Rasht and Shirza.  In Tehran’s traditional business district of Bazaar, anti-government protesters chanted “We will be killed one by one if we don’t unite.”

Students have been demonstrating at numerous universities and secondary schools.  Many of the protesters are young women of 15- and 16-years of age.  Calls for the downfall of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei have been growing.

But Khamenei vowed this week to crack down, blaming the United States and Israel for fomenting the “riots.”

Rights groups said the state crackdown has so far led to the death of at least 150 people, with hundreds injured and thousands arrested.

Brazil: Jair Bolsonaro considerably outperformed expectations in Brazil’s presidential election, proving that the far-right wave he rode to the presidency remains a force and provided the world with yet another example of polls missing the mark.

The most-trusted opinion polls had indicated leftist former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva was far out front, and potentially even clinching a first-round victory by gaining 50% of the vote.

But da Silva, known universally as Lula, picked up 48.4% of valid votes, which excludes blank and null ballots, while Bolsonaro got 43.2%, according to Brazil’s electoral authority.

The vote was virtually free from the political violence that many had feared.

So it’s going to be a helluva runoff, Oct. 30.

Random Musings

--Presidential approval ratings….

Gallup: 42% approve of President Biden’s job performance, 56% disapprove; 39% of independents approve (Sept. 1-16).

Rasmussen: 44% approve of Biden’s performance, 55% disapprove (Oct. 6).

--A report from the Daily Beast that Georgia Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker paid for his then girlfriend’s abortion in 2009 has roiled the high-profile race against Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock.

Monday night, the Daily Beast report said Walker had urged his girlfriend to end her pregnancy and included details about a signed check from him to cover the procedure, a receipt from the abortion clinic, a “get well” card from Walker and corroboration from friends of the woman, who remained anonymous.  Walker has staked out a staunchly anti-abortion position in the campaign, saying the procedure should be banned with no exceptions for rape, incest or the health of the mother.

Walker disputed the report in a statement, calling it a “flat-out lie” and saying “I’m not taking this anymore.  I [am] planning to sue the Daily Beast for this defamatory lie.  It will be filed tomorrow morning.”  [It hasn’t been.]

So then the woman gave the Daily Beast more details, including that the two had a second child that Walker then did not support.  She is still anonymous in an attempt to protect her family’s privacy as best she could while also coming forward with the truth.

When questioned about various aspects of the case in different interviews with Fox News, including on the $700 check, Walker said, “I send money to a lot of people,” noting that he gives scholarships and is “always helping people.”

Walker’s son, Christian, has been criticizing his father all week in a series of tweets following the Daily Beast report, writing, “I know my mom and I would really appreciate if my father Herschel Walker stopped lying and making a mockery of us.  You’re not a ‘family man’ when you left us to bang a bunch of women, threatened to kill us, and had us move over 6 times in 6 months running from your violence.”

Christian Walker, a right-wing “influencer” who had previously supported his father’s campaign, continued, “I don’t care about someone who has a bad past and takes accountability.  But how DARE YOU LIE and act as though you’re some ‘moral, Christian, upright man.’  You’ve lived a life of DESTROYING other peoples’ lives.  How dare you. …Every family member of Herschel Walker asked him not to run for office, because we all knew (some of) his past.  Every single one.  He decided to give us the middle finger and air out all of his dirty laundry in public, while simultaneously lying about it.  I’m done.”

--Nebraska GOP Senator Ben Sasse is expected to resign from the Senate to become president at the University of Florida.

“I think Florida is the most interesting university in America right now,” Sasse said in a statement after the school announced that a search committee recommended him for the job of school president.

The statement did not say exactly when Sasse would relinquish his seat in a chamber that is now split 50-50, while the University of Florida still has to go through a formal hiring process, with the Board of Trustees scheduled to consider the appointment at a meeting on Nov. 1.

The timing could be significant.  The Nebraska governor would appoint a replacement.  Current governor Pete Ricketts is a Republican, but his office is up for grabs in the November election.

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush congratulated Sasse on his new gig, tweeting: “Ben Sasse is brilliant, a consensus builder and will be a great leader of a great University.  Ben and family, welcome to Florida!”

Biden Agenda

--Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“As diplomatic humiliations go, it’s hard to top Wednesday’s decision by Saudi Arabia and its OPEC+ allies to cut oil production by two million barrels a day despite U.S. entreaties and a looming global recession.

“News broke over the weekend that OPEC and its allies, including Russia, were contemplating cutting their production targets by one million barrels a day at their meeting this week.  They want higher prices, and the prospect that this means rising gasoline prices before the November election sent the White House into overdrive.

“CNN reported that senior Biden officials lobbied the Saudis, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates to oppose the production cuts.  According to CNN, draft White House talking points for Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen suggested that she inform our Mideast allies that ‘There is great political risk to your reputation and relations with the United States and the West if you move forward.’

“The talking points also explained that production cuts would be a ‘total disaster.’ A White House official told CNN ‘It’s important everyone is aware of just how high the stakes are.’  The stakes certainly are high for the Biden Administration, which has claimed credit for this summer’s decline in gasoline prices.

“The Saudis heard all this – and then raised their production cuts by an additional million barrels a day.  They don’t seem to think risking relations with the U.S. is all that big a deal.  And they put friendly relations with Russia above their ‘reputation’ in the U.S.

“The White House reacted in a statement on Wednesday – from national security adviser Jake Sullivan and economic adviser Brian Deese – by calling the production cuts ‘shortsighted.’  The statement also said the decision is ‘a reminder of why it is so critical that the United States reduce its reliance on fossil fuels.’

“Do these people know how preposterous they sound?  No American President has done more to make the U.S. more dependent on foreign energy than Mr. Biden has in less than two years.  He came into office promising to slash U.S. oil and gas production, and his regulators and the Democratic Congress are doing everything they can to make drilling difficult and investment non-economic.

“Mr. Biden called Saudi Arabia a ‘pariah’ during the 2020 campaign, delayed a planned arms shipment, and continues to pursue a nuclear deal with Iran that would give the Saudis’ main enemy hundreds of billions of dollars to promote terrorism and other trouble.  The President had to go hat in hand to the Saudi Crown Prince in July to ask for more oil production, and all he got was a lousy fist bump….

“The Biden White House has tried every gimmick to lower gas prices other than the one that would really matter: Call off its political and regulatory campaign against American oil and gas production. A statement from Mr. Biden to that effect would spur more production immediately in the Permian Basin and encourage new investment.

“But the Administration won’t do it because it is too afraid of, or shares the beliefs of, the climate left that wants to ban fossil fuels.  That’s the definition of ‘shortsighted,’ and it leads to humiliations like the one Wednesday and higher prices for American families.”

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) told CNBC in an interview the cut in production should lead to a ‘wholesale reevaluation of the U.S. alliance with Saudi Arabia,” adding that Biden’s visit this year did not yield the necessary results from Riyadh.  “When the chips are down, the Saudis effectively choose the Russians instead of the United States,” he said.  “We need them right now.”

--Chris Cillizza and Shania Shelton / CNN.com

“Joe Biden still hasn’t made up his mind about whether or not to run for president in 2024.

“ ‘Look, my intention as I said to begin with is that I would run again,’ the President said last month in an interview with CBS’ ’60 Minutes.’  ‘But it’s just an intention.  But is it a firm decision that I run again?  That remains to be seen.’

“Let’s say, for the sake of argument, that Biden does decide to run for another term in two years time. The challenge before him will be simple but profound: Prove to the American people that he can campaign all over the country for the entirety of the campaign.

“That’s according to the latest column from The Washington Post’s Megan McArdle, who writes:

“ ‘You need only watch video from 10 years ago to see that the president now appears slower than he used to be.  That doesn’t mean he’s unfit to be president; he will not be asked to resolve a foreign policy crisis by solving crossword puzzles at high speed.  But whether it’s a policy problem, it is a political problem.’

“McArdle’s argument goes like this:

“1. In the early primary and caucus states where a premium was put on hand-to-hand campaigning, Biden was crushed.

“2. He was saved by the endorsement of South Carolina Rep. Jim Clyburn and the strong support of Black voters in the Palmetto State.

“3. After that win in South Carolina, the primary campaign effectively ended because the country went into lockdown over Covid-19.

“4. The general election campaign, similarly, wasn’t much of a campaign.  Biden held very few in-person events and the ones he did hold were with small numbers of people.

“5. By the time the 2024 campaign rolls around, the pandemic will be in the rearview mirror (Biden says it already is) and politics will return to normal again.  Which means Biden will have to do something he hasn’t done in years – actively campaign.

“Again, McArdle:

“ ‘Whether Republicans nominate Trump or someone else, his opponent is going to be out there on the stump, whipping up voter enthusiasm and proving they have the stamina for the job.  If Biden doesn’t follow suit, he will be conceding them an edge – especially since they will not be shy about using that fact to raise questions about his fitness.’

“We know from oodles of polling that there are real and persistent questions among the electorate – including a decent-sized chunk of Democrats – about whether Biden should run again, with his age being a prime driver of those doubts.

“Whether you agree with McArdle or not, she raises a provocative and important point: Given Biden’s age and snafus like the one last week involving the late Rep. Jackie Walorski, people are going to be keeping a close eye on how he carries himself as a candidate in 2024.”

Well, again, next January, at the very latest February, the president will announce he is not running in 2024.  It would be a travesty if he did.

--Thursday, President Biden issued an executive order pardoning thousands of Americans convicted of “simple possession” of marijuana, as the administration takes a dramatic step toward decriminalizing the drug and addressing charging practices that disproportionately impact people of color.

He is also calling on governors to issue similar pardons for those convicted of state marijuana offenses, which reflect the vast majority of marijuana possession cases.  Recreational marijuana use is legal in 19 states and Washington, D.C.

Biden, in a statement, said the move reflects his position that “no one should be in jail just for using or possessing marijuana.”

“There are thousands of people who have prior Federal convictions for marijuana possession, who may be denied employment, housing, or educational opportunities as a result,” he said.  “My action will help relieve the collateral consequences arising from these convictions.”

--According to multiple reports, the FBI has gathered enough evidence to charge Hunter Biden with tax crimes and making a false statement to buy a gun.  President Biden’s son has been under federal investigation since 2018.

The decision on whether to file criminal charges now rests with the U.S. Attorney in Delaware.

According to the Washington Post, federal agents began investigating him in 2018, and initially centered on finances related to his overseas businesses and consulting.

Over time, the investigations began to focus on whether Hunter properly reported his income and made false statements on paperwork used to purchase a firearm in 2018.

Trump World

--Former President Donald Trump on Tuesday asked the Supreme Court to intervene in his fight with the Justice Department over classified documents seized from his Florida home as part of a criminal investigation into his handling of government records.

Trump filed an emergency request asking the justices to block part of a lower court’s ruling that prevented an independent arbiter requested by Trump, known as a special master, from vetting more than 100 documents marked as classified that were among 11,000 records seized by FBI agents at the Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach on Aug. 8.

The Atlanta-based 11th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals on Sept. 21 repudiated a decision by U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon, who had temporarily barred the department from examining the seized classified documents until the special master, Judge Raymond Dearie, who was requested by Trump, had weeded out any that could be deemed privileged and withheld from investigators.

Trump’s lawyers in Tuesday’s filing said the Justice Department had “attempted to criminalize a document management dispute and now vehemently objects to a transparent process that provides much-needed oversight.”

The DOJ seeks to determine who accessed classified materials, whether they were compromised and if any remain unaccounted for (of course they do).

So Trump’s typical delay game continues.

--According to the Washington Post, Trump asked one of his lawyers to tell the National Archives and Records Administration in early 2022 that Trump had returned all materials requested by the agency, but the lawyer declined because he was not sure the statement was true, according to people familiar with the matter.

As it turned out, thousands more government documents – including some highly classified secrets – remained at Mar-a-Lago.  The later discovery of those documents, through a May grand jury subpoena led to the Aug. 8 search and the criminal investigation into the potential mishandling of classified material and the possible hiding, tampering or destruction of government records.

And the other day, the National Archives told a congressional oversight committee that they did not know if all presidential records from Trump’s White House had been turned over as required.

Acting Archivist Debra Wall said the federal agency charged with preserving government records, would consult with the Department of Justice on “whether to initiate an action for the recovery of records unlawfully removed.”

--Editorial / New York Post

“Donald Trump ranted at Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell on Friday for letting the Democrats pass a stopgap federal-funding bill to avoid shutting down the government.

“With President Joe Biden and the Democratic Congress presiding over a steady stream of disasters from still-soaring inflation, crime, Biden’s questionable faculties and a metastasizing illegal-migrant crisis, they’re beyond eager to have the nation talking about…Donald Trump.

“The ex-prez is happy to serve as the Dems’ stooge, as long as it gets him the headlines he craves. The latest was his rant at Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell on Friday for letting the Dems pass a stopgap federal-funding bill to avoid shutting down the government.

“Letting Democrats continue to spend ‘trillions’ means Mitch has a ‘DEATH WISH,’ the Donald posted menacingly to his supporters, following up with cruel and infantile insults to McConnell’s wife.

“Yes, the republic’s finances are a horrific mess, one worsened by the $4 trillion in new spending passed under Biden. And in some conditions shuttering the government might be the GOP’s best move, though history shows that it usually backfires big-time and McConnell’s unquestionably a better judge of tactics than the Colonel Kurtz of Mar-a-Lago.

“More important, most of that spending wouldn’t have passed if Trump’s late-2020 ‘stolen election’ lunacy hadn’t given Democrats control of the U.S. Senate by depressing GOP turnout in the Georgia runoffs.

“The best chance to change course now is this year’s midterms, which could give Republicans control of the House and Senate – though Trump’s made that far harder by pushing dubious candidates in the GOP primaries (and then failing to open his $100 million-plus campaign warchest to help them in the general).

“Democrats, by the way, are so pleased with Trump’s involvement that they spent at least $53 million promoting his candidates in the primaries. And he’s no doubt secretly pleased at all the free publicity they simultaneously give him by ranting, from Biden on down, about the supposed ‘MAGA Republican’ threat to democracy.

“After a summertime bump in the polls, Dem fortunes this fall were starting to look worse last week in the wake of fresh bad news on inflation as the migrant crisis started hitting northern cities.

“We’ve said it before, more than once: Democrats’ best hope in the runup to Nov. 8 is that Trump will keep stepping in to make himself the center of attention, on subjects that are inevitably all about him – not the nation’s many needs.

“Does he not know the Dems see him as effectively their stooge, or does he just not care?”

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“We live in a polarized political age when rabid partisans don’t need provocation to resort to violence. This makes Donald Trump’s latest verbal assault against Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell all the more reckless.

“Mr. Trump let loose another tirade against the GOP Senate leader on Friday.  ‘Is McConnell approving all of these Trillions of Dollars worth of Democrat sponsored Bills, without even the slightest bit of negotiation, because he hates Donald J. Trump, and he knows I am strongly opposed to them, or is he doing it because he believes in the Fake and Highly Destructive Green New Deal, and is willing to take the Country down with him?’ Mr. Trump wrote on Truth Social.

“ ‘In any event, either reason is unacceptable.  He has a DEATH WISH.  Must immediately seek help and advise from his China loving wife, Coco Chow!’ he added.

“This continues Mr. Trump’s attacks on Elaine Chao, Mr. McConnell’s wife, for being Chinese-American.  Her real offense was resigning as transportation secretary after Mr. Trump’s disgraceful behavior on Jan. 6.  His feud with Mr. McConnell is also personal, as the Kentucky Senator condemned Mr. Trump’s Jan. 6 actions and hasn’t spoken to him since.

“But the ‘death wish’ rhetoric is ugly even by Mr. Trump’s standards and deserves to be condemned.  Mr. Trump’s apologists claim he merely meant Mr. McConnell has a political death wish, but that isn’t what he wrote.  It’s all too easy to imagine some fanatic taking Mr. Trump seriously and literally, and attempting to kill Mr. McConnell.  Many supporters took Mr. Trump’s rhetoric about former Vice President Mike Pence all too seriously on Jan. 6.

“Maine Sen. Susan Collins wasn’t excessive when she said recently that she ‘wouldn’t be surprised’ if a Member of Congress is shot in this hot-house political environment.  A left-wing follower of Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders opened fire on Republican Members of Congress in 2017 and came close to killing Rep. Steve Scalise.

“Five weeks from Election Day, Mr. Trump could be working and spending money to elect a GOP Congress, or to help his home state of Florida recover from Hurricane Ian.  Instead he’s attacking Mr. McConnell and his wife as part of a personal political vendetta, and putting every Republican candidate on the spot to respond to questions about the Trump rant.  Mr. Trump always puts himself first, and with this rhetoric he may put others at genuine risk of harm.”

The Republican Party’s silence on this matter is beyond pathetic.

---

--This year’s Nobel Peace Prize is going to jailed Belarus rights activist Ales Bialiatski, the Russian group Memorial and the Ukrainian organization Center for Civil Liberties, the award’s judges said Friday.

--Pope Francis warned on Monday against a rise of intolerance and racism as far-right nationalists and Eurosceptic parties made historic gains in European elections.

“The signs of meanness we see around us heighten our feat of ‘the other,’ the unknown, the marginalized, the foreigner,” he said in a message for the World Day of Migrants and Refugees.

“It is not just about them, but about all of us, and about the present and future of the human family.

“Migrants, especially those who are most vulnerable, help us to read the ‘signs of the times,’” he said.

Francis acknowledged the “fear” in many societies towards migrants and refugees arriving in search of protection or a better future.

“To some extent, the fear is legitimate, also because the preparation for this encounter is lacking,” he said, alluding to often piecemeal and inadequate approaches to refugee integration.

“But the problem is not that we have doubts and fears.  The problem is when they condition our way of thinking and acting to the point of making us intolerant, closed and perhaps even – without realizing it – racist,” he added.

“Today’s world is increasingly becoming more elitist and cruel towards the excluded,” the pontiff said.

--Incredibly, panic and a chaotic run for exits after police fired tear gas at an Indonesian soccer match to drive away rioting fans left at least 125 dead, most of whom were trampled upon or suffocated, making it one of the deadliest sports events in the world.

Attention immediately focused on the police use of tear gas, which is banned at soccer stadiums by FIFA.  The president of the world soccer body called the deaths at the stadium “a dark day for all involved in football and a tragedy beyond comprehension,” while President Joko Widodo ordered an investigation of security procedures.

Riots broke out after the game ended Saturday evening with host Arema FC of East Java’s Malang city losing to rival Persebaya of Surabaya 3-2.

--New York City’s murder rate is actually down 12% this year but you’d never know it from the headlines.  As the New York Daily News wrote: “They are the buzzwords of New York City crime circa 2022: Random and unprovoked.

“A chilling spate of recent incidents involving innocent victims runs the gamut from a woman savagely beaten inside a Queens subway station to a 17-year-old Brooklyn girl killed by a stray bullet to a Mexican immigrant nearly killed by a sucker-punch outside a Manhattan restaurant.

“The latest terrifying attack took the life of a veteran city EMS lieutenant on her way to grab lunch in Astoria this past Thursday, with a schizophrenic stranger knocking her to the sidewalk before stabbing her 20 times for no apparent reason.

“ ‘There’s something profoundly wrong with New York,’ said Mary Hassler, 66, an Astoria resident and cosmetics sales person.  ‘The number of these attacks are growing.  There seems to be more and more all the time.

“ ‘It’s every New Yorker’s fear.’

“Only the shooting this past Wednesday of teen victim Shayma Roman, out of the cited incidents, did not involve suspects with mental health issues, police said.  The NYPD does not keep count of random or unprovoked attacks committed by the mentally ill – or anyone else.”

And while homicides are down, there is a big jump in robberies, 37%, and a 43% increase in grand larceny as New Yorkers expressed their fears about the ongoing situation.

Ex-NYPD officer Eugene O’Donnell, now a professor at the John Jay College of Criminal Justice, said the arbitrary incidents resonate more with New Yorkers than other crimes or any crime statistics.

“People seem far more afraid of random attacks,” he said.  “And people are not always rational about what they fear.  It’s a cliché, but it’s the truth.  A small number of subway passengers might be pushed on the tracks.  But it’s powerful to riders who sense there’s no safety net.”

When I was in North Carolina the other week at a college football game, I was telling old friends about the situation in New York, one couple about to head there for a little vacation.  I told them, ‘Always keep your guard up.’

I loved going into New York.  As kids, like 15-year-olds, our parents let us take the train in and go to a game, do our thing, and these were during the far worse crime days of the 1970s.  And then I worked there for years, went in often otherwise, but I haven’t been into Gotham since the pandemic started and, yes, it’s because everything has become so random and unprovoked.

It didn’t used to be that way. 

--California’s drought has become the state’s driest three-year period on record, surpassing that of 2013-15 – and a fourth dry year is looking increasingly likely, officials said Monday.

The news came just days after the state began its new water year, which runs from Oct. 1 to Sept. 30. The 2022 water year was marked by dramatic swings between wet and dry conditions and a record-shattering heat wave at the start of September.

With long-range forecasts suggesting that warmer and drier than average conditions will persist, uncertainty remains about what the new water year may bring, even as residents continue to conserve at a commendable pace.

“This is our new climate reality, and we must adapt,” Department of Water Resources Director Karla Nemeth said in a statement.  “As California transitions to a hotter, drier future, our extreme swings from wet and dry conditions will continue. We are preparing now for continued extreme drought and working with our federal, state, local and academic partners to plan for a future where we see less overall precipitation and more rain than snow.”

The 2022 water year ended with statewide precipitation at 76% of average and statewide reservoir storage at 69% of average, officials said.  The reservoir levels are slightly better than last year but still far below normal, as nearly 95% of California remains in extreme, exceptional or severe drought, the three worst categories under the U.S. Drought Monitor.

The 2022 water year began with a notably wet and snowy October through December and was followed by the driest January through March in more than 100 years. [Los Angeles Times]

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Pray for the men and women of our armed forces…and all the fallen.

Pray for Ukraine.

God bless America.

---

Gold $1702
Oil $93.20

Regular Gas: $3.89, nationally; Diesel: $4.91 [$3.24 / $3.41 yr. ago]

Returns for the week 10/3-10/7

Dow Jones  +2.0%  [29296]
S&P 500  +1.5%  [3639]
S&P MidCap  +2.9%
Russell 2000  +2.3%
Nasdaq  +0.7%  [10652]

Returns for the period 1/1/22-10/7/22

Dow Jones  -19.4%
S&P 500  -23.6%
S&P MidCap  -20.2%
Russell 2000  -24.2%
Nasdaq  -31.9%

Bulls 25.4
Bears 41.8

Hang in there.

Brian Trumbore

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