Week in Review

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Week in Review

11/04/2023

For the week 10/30-11/3

[Posted 5:00 PM ET, Friday]

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Edition 1,281

Back in the spring of 2010, I took my second trip to Beirut, the first in 2005, just weeks after the assassination of Rafik Hariri.  In 2010 I had the opportunity to meet with the esteemed Lebanese journalist and historian, Michael Young.

Michael and I went to a nice mall, found a bookstore where I could purchase his just-published personal history of Lebanon, “The Ghosts of Martyrs Square,” went to a lovely rooftop bar and had a great conversation, which I chronicled in these pages at the time. 

Michael signed the book: “To Brian Trumbore, In memory of an afternoon in Beirut, after the period of the martyrs…but can we be sure?”

Since then, I’ve checked up on him from time to time, and would always get a comment on the current political scene, but I hadn’t reached out in probably two years, that is until Monday.  Frankly, I thought he might be in Paris, where he often went, and I was surprised to hear he was in Beirut.  First off, I was happy to hear he’s doing okay. 

And he seemed fairly optimistic.  “I hope we avoid a war and remain somewhat hopeful. Do hope I’m correct.”

[Buy Michael’s book, it’s terrific.  He got to know all the key leaders like no one else in this beautiful but deeply troubled country.]

But whether Michael is right about Lebanon avoiding another war is largely up to one man, and we finally heard from him today.

In a long-awaited appearance, Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah spoke publicly this afternoon for the first time since the Oct. 7 attacks.  It was feared Nasrallah would announce that his group was formally entering the war.  Hezbollah is based in Lebanon, but it’s just one of dozens of militias throughout the Middle East supported by Iran.

Instead, Nasrallah confirmed his fighters’ general involvement in support of Hamas, but he insisted the cause is “100% Palestinian,” that Hezbollah did not know of the Oct. 7 attacks beforehand, and it’s unrelated to regional issues.  He also praised militants in Iran and Yemen for piling on by attacking either Israeli or U.S. troops in the region.

“To those saying we’re about to engage in the war, I tell you, we’ve been involved in this battle since Oct. 8,” Nasrallah said.  “I assure you, our efforts today will not be the end, and they will not be sufficient.”

Nasrallah vowed to escalate if Hamas is on the brink of defeat – and warned the U.S., “If a war breaks out, your naval fleet will be pointless.”  Unsurprisingly, he also blamed the U.S. for the current conflict, and said Israel’s goal of crushing Hamas is “foolish” and will only make matters worse.

Hezbollah, with its estimated 150,000 rockets and missiles (far more accurate ones than Hamas or Islamic Jihad have), could easily overwhelm Israel’s Iron Dome any time it wanted to and inflict massive casualties on Israelis, but Nasrallah knows that would mean Lebanon’s, and Hezbollah’s, destruction.

All in all, strip out the boilerplate strident rhetoric and Nasrallah’s speech was tame, by his standards.

But on a broader topic, Arab nations that have normalized or are considering improving relations with Israel are coming under growing public pressure to cut those ties because of Israel’s war with Hamas.

There have been protests in support of the Palestinians across the Middle East, presenting an uncomfortable dilemma for governments that have enjoyed the benefits of closer economic and military ties with Israel in recent years.

The U.S.-brokered Abraham Accords, aimed at winning broader recognition of Israel in the Arab world, paved the way for trade deals and military cooperation with Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan and the United Arab Emirates starting in 2020.

But in a sign of apparently deteriorating regional ties, Bahrain recalled its ambassador to Israel on Thursday.  Jordan had done so as well earlier in the week, citing the Israeli bombardment of Gaza, and instructing Israel’s ambassador to Jordan to stay away.

Biden administration efforts to bring Saudi Arabia and Israel closer have certainly been shelved for the foreseeable future.

So with this in mind, you have the U.S. issue of aiding both Israel and Ukraine.

New Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson decided to force a stand-alone vote on aid for Israel, peeling off a request from the Biden administration for money for Ukraine and coupling it with spending cuts.  The $14 billion aid bill for Israel includes a provision that would rescind the same amount of money earmarked for the IRS as part of the Inflation Reduction Act, a key piece of President Biden’s agenda.

I totally agree with Maya MacGuineas, the president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, that when it comes to the IRS, “defunding tax enforcement is worse than not paying for it at all.”

“Instead of costing $14 billion, the House Bill will add upward of $30 billion to the debt.  Instead of avoiding new borrowing, this plan doubles down on it,” MacGuineas said.

Biden has asked Congress to pass a $105 billion aid package for Israel and Ukraine that also has funds for Taiwan and border security.

But then the White House asked for a huge domestic spending package.

Speaker Johnson’s plan will be dead on arrival at the Democratic-controlled Senate, where even leading Republicans, like Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, want to link Ukraine and Israel funding together.

Any spending package from the Senate, that’s not just about foreign policy, will be DOA in the House.

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“The last American President who tried to finance a war along with a new Great Society was Lyndon Johnson.  It ended in inflation and retreat in Vietnam.  President Biden now wants Congress to help allies win two wars abroad, and deter a third over Taiwan, yet he wants to continue spending on everything as if nothing in the world has changed. He won’t be able to do both.

“Mr. Biden has asked Congress for $106 billion for arms to Ukraine and Israel, plus money for the U.S. southern border and the Pacific theater. These are urgent priorities as two wars rage and the U.S. military isn’t remotely prepared to meet the growing threat of a Russia-Iran-China axis.  Border security is the price of entry for GOP votes.

“This will be hard enough to get through the GOP House, yet last week the White House asked Congress for $56 billion in ‘emergency’ domestic spending. This is politically tone deaf, not least because the requests aren’t remotely emergencies. They’re more of the social pork barrel that dominated the Biden Administration’s first two years.”

The Journal then goes through a bunch of the proposals, like $144 million to “expand substance abuse and mental health prevention and treatment services in areas affected by the Maui fires,” which would be on top of $16 billion already appropriated for disaster relief!

And a request for $1.5 billion to “support additional resources for State Opioid Response,” when states and localities haven’t even spent the tens of billions of dollars that they extracted from drug makers and pharmacies in legal settlements.

WSJ:

“The White House notes there’s bipartisan support for many of its funding proposals, which may be true.  But Democrats and the GOP’s pork-barrel spenders agreed to this summer’s debt-ceiling deal that capped domestic spending….

“At stake here are Mr. Biden’s sincerity and his obligation as Commander in Chief. He is asking Republicans to take a difficult vote for the good of the country at what he says is an ‘inflection point’ in history. Does he mean it? If he does, then he should be willing to compromise by ditching more welfare spending. Wasn’t the $11.6 trillion in non-defense spending his first two years enough?

“He should also be willing to make compromises on GOP priorities such as reforming the ‘credible fear’ asylum standard that has become an essentially open door to anyone who claims it.  There are two wars going on, Mr. President.  Do you want the money to help our allies win them, or do you want to sacrifice Ukraine and U.S. defenses for broadband subsidies?”

Editorial / Wall Street Journal, Part II:

“As the world gets more dangerous, Washington’s political dysfunction is becoming more dangerous as well. If Washington can’t help two allies defend themselves, with no U.S. troops fighting, the world will conclude that our adversaries are right about American decline.”

Meanwhile, we have another government shutdown deadline fast approaching, Nov. 17. Speaker Johnson said he’s interested in a funding bill that lasts through only Jan. 15.

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The Israel / Gaza War….

--The Israeli military said on Saturday it had entered northern Gaza overnight and expanded military operations with infantry and armored corps.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu then pledged to “save our country” in his first press conference since the Oct. 7 attack – casting the war in Gaza as an existential fight against “barbarians” for survival of the Jewish state.

“A state has two possibilities: to be or not to be,” he said.  “This is our test, and we are going to win it…this is the mission of my life.”

“Our heroic fighters have one goal: To destroy this enemy and to make sure the existence of our country.  Never again.  ‘Never again,’ is now,” the prime minister said.

--Gaza was largely blacked out on Saturday, blamed on Israel’s bombardment, and left people unreachable by phone, the blackout sparking fear and panic, residents said, as people struggled to get information on family and friends.

The head of the World Health Organization said on X that the blackout was also “making it impossible for ambulances to reach the injured,” and international aid agencies said they had lost contact with their staff there.

The blackout lasted about 36 hours, before the internet was largely restored later Sunday.

--Iranian Foreign Minister Amirabdollahian warned again that new fronts would open against the U.S. if it continues its unequivocal support for Israel.  Iran began two days of exercises last weekend involving helicopters, missiles, drones and artillery.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi said Israel’s ongoing bombardment of Gaza “may force everyone” to act.

--Turkey President Recep Tayyip Erdogan urged Israel to halt its “ever-increasing” bombing of Gaza.  “Israel must immediately get out of this state of madness,” Erdogan posted on X, hours before attending a large pro-Palestinian rally at Istanbul’s airport.  Glad I wasn’t there.

--U.S. officials said on the Sunday news shows that Israel has a responsibility to protect the lives of innocent people in Gaza, amid the growing outcry over Palestinian civilian deaths.

“What we believe is that every hour, every day of this military operation, the IDF (Israel Defense Forces), the Israeli government should be taking every possible means available to them to distinguish between Hamas terrorists who are legitimate military targets and civilians who are not,” said national security adviser Jake Sullivan on CNN.  President Biden then reiterated the position in a call with Prime Minister Netanyahu later that day.

But the administration has not called for a ceasefire, ignoring the pleas coming from the Democratic Party, particularly the progressive wing.

--A breakdown of civil order has put four UN aid distribution centers and a storage facility out of action in Gaza as people search desperately for food and water, a UN Palestinian refugee official said on Monday.

Tom White, director of UNWRA Affairs in Gaza, also said that a logistics base at the Rafah border crossing vital to aid distribution had become increasingly difficult to operate because 8,000 people were sheltering at it.

“With the breakdown of civil order, every day now we’ve got hundreds of people trying to get into the warehouses to steal flour,” he told Reuters. “Right now people are in survival mode.  It’s about getting enough flour and it’s about getting enough water.”

The World Health Organization said a third of hospitals are non-functioning and 71% of clinics are non-functioning.

The Palestinian Red Crescent said 140 trucks of aid had entered Gaza since Oct. 7 and the biggest delivery so far of 33 trucks arrived on Sunday.

[The U.S. State Department on Monday said 45 trucks entered Gaza on Sunday, bringing the total to 150, and said that progress is being made on ensuring the delivery of essential fuel supplies to Gaza.]

On Sunday, President Biden and Egyptian President al-Sisi committed to a significant acceleration of assistance.

--Vladimir Putin on Monday sought to blame the West for the crisis in the Middle East. In a televised statement to a meeting of members of his Security Council and the government and the heads of law enforcement agencies, Putin said the “ruling elites of the U.S.” and their “satellites” stood behind the killing of Gaza’s Palestinians, and behind conflicts in Ukraine, Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria.

“They need constant chaos in the Middle East.  Therefore (the U.S.) does its best to discredit those countries that insist on an immediate ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, on stopping the bloodshed, and are ready to make a real contribution to resolving the crisis, and not parasitize on it.”

Russia angered Israel by receiving a Hamas delegation in Moscow.

Having sent his army into Ukraine in February 2022 with the argument that Moscow had to free fellow Russian speakers from alleged oppression, Putin has for the last year cast his ‘special military operation’ as a struggle for Russian survival against a U.S.-led West determined to use Ukraine to crush and dismantle Russia.  Putin said Russia was fighting the shadowy U.S. forces he blamed for the Middle East crisis on the battlefields of Ukraine.

“Palestine can only be helped by fighting those who are behind this tragedy. We are Russia and we are fighting them in the context of the ‘special military operation.’  Both for ourselves and for those who strive for real true freedom,” he said.  “The key to resolving the conflict is in the creation of a sovereign, independent Palestinian state,” Putin said, implying that this was not Washington’s stated aim.

Putin also blamed the West and Ukraine for events in Dagestan, where a mob on Sunday night attempted to hunt down passengers who had just landed at Makhachkala airport from Israel.

“The events in Makhachkala last night were inspired, including through social networks, not least from the territory of Ukraine, by the hands of agents of Western intelligence services,” said Putin, without providing any evidence.

Hundreds of rioters from the predominantly Muslim Dagestan region stormed the airport to “catch” Jews.  Videos showed mostly young men, waving Palestinian flags, breaking down glass doors and running through the airport on Sunday shouting “Allahu Akbar” or “God is Greatest.”

Police said they arrested 60 people in connection with the unrest and that the Jewish passengers on the plane were safe.  The airport resumed normal operations on Monday.

Maria Zakharova, a spokeswoman for the Russian foreign ministry, named Ukraine as the culprit, saying in a statement that authorities in Kyiv had played a “direct and key role” in preparing the ground for what she called a “provocation.”

Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Pdolyak told Reuters that Kyiv had “nothing to do” with the unrest.

Ukrainian President Zelensky on Sunday blamed the events on what he called Russia’s “widespread culture of hatred toward other nations, which is propagated by state television, pundits, and authorities.”

--Monday night, Prime Minister Netanyahu told reporters that “Israel is fighting the enemies of civilization itself.”  He rejected the idea of a cease-fire, backed by humanitarian groups and the UN General Assembly, among others, adding, “calls for a cease-fire are calls for Israel to surrender to Hamas, to surrender to terrorism.”

Asked about the civilian death toll in Gaza from Israeli airstrikes, Netanyahu said that “not a single civilian has to die,” and he accused Hamas of “preventing them from leaving the areas of conflict.”

He asked nations to back Israel in its fight against Hamas, saying “Israel’s fight is your fight.”

“The future of our civilization is at stake,” he said.

Netanyahu spoke as the Israeli military advanced deeper into the Gaza Strip, moving toward Gaza City from at least three sides as it continued battering the enclave with airstrikes.

Sunday, Netanyahu was forced to issue a rare apology after facing mounting criticism for the Oct. 7 attack.  He publicly blamed the security failures on Israel’s defense and intelligence services.  He hadn’t been warned of Hamas’ intention to start a war, he wrote in a tweet on X, saying that defense and intelligence officials had “assessed that Hamas was deterred.”

Soon after, he deleted the tweet and apologized.

Over 35 years in politics, Netanyahu has cultivated an image as a security hawk tough on Palestinian violence and ready to face down the threat of a nuclear Iran.  That image was shattered Oct. 7.

Now he faces an awful balancing act that requires him to explain the security failures; mount a war in Gaza; get the hostages returned; and keep his coalition together amid the growing criticism for Oct. 7.  He’s toast, but he needs to do what’s best for the people, and not him, politically.

Of course, that’s not Bibi.  He’s a bad guy.

--The violence in the West Bank also continues, with at least 115 Palestinians killed by Israeli forces and settlers since Oct. 7 as of Monday.

*I will go after Benjamin Netanyahu and the settlers next week…full force. 

--The United Nations warned that the situation in Syria, which borders Israel and where many Iran-backed militias operate, is “at its most dangerous for a long time.”

--Late Tuesday, the IDF claimed responsibility for an attack on the Jabalya refugee camp in northern Gaza that killed and injured hundreds of people*, according to health officials in Gaza, and, indeed, the video was gruesome. A senior Hamas commander was targeted and killed in the strike, the IDF said.

“His elimination was carried out as part of a wide-scale strike on terrorists and terror infrastructure belonging to the Central Jabaliya Battalion, which had taken control over civilian buildings in Gaza City,” the military said.

*Reuters said 50 dead, 150 injured.

--As of Tuesday, the Gaza Health Ministry said 8,525 people in Gaza have been killed in the conflict, though again, it’s impossible to verify the numbers and Israel argues many of the casualties were the result of Hamas/Islamic Jihad rocket launches that failed, such as the hospital bombing a week earlier.

--Humanitarian officials have warned that Palestinian civilians face a growing catastrophe.  “The scale of the horror people are experiencing in Gaza is really hard to convey,” Martin Griffiths, the UN’s chief official for humanitarian and relief affairs, said in a statement on Monday. “People are becoming increasingly desperate, as they search for food, water and shelter amid the relentless bombing campaign that is wiping out whole families and entire neighborhoods.”

The World Health Organization said on Tuesday that Gaza faced a “public health catastrophe, amid overcrowding, mass displacement and damage to infrastructure.”  The WHO warned of a risk of civilian deaths not directly linked to Israeli bombardment.

--Some people with dual nationalities and seriously injured Palestinians arrived in Egypt on Wednesday, Egyptian state-owned TV said, as the Gaza border opened for the first such crossings since the start of the war.

The crossings came after a deal negotiated late Tuesday among Israel, Egypt, Hamas, the United States and Qatar.  Egypt was set to receive hundreds of people on Wednesday, according to Western diplomats in Cairo and Jerusalem and the Gaza authorities.

The Rafah crossing has been the focus of heated international negotiations as the only possible escape route, as well as the only entry point for humanitarian aid.

U.S. officials said Wednesday that as many as 5,000 foreign nationals were possibly going to be able to leave Gaza, though for at least Wednesday, it did not appear any American citizens were among the initial departees.

Egypt then said at least 320 foreign passport holders crossed the border in the first batch of evacuations, among a list of about 500 foreigners or dual nationals that had been cleared to leave Gaza, further evacuations expected in the days ahead.

Early Wednesday, Gaza was plunged into a communications blackout a second time, after last weekend’s 34-hour blackout.

--Secretary of State Blinken was flying to Israel Friday to meet with government officials before going to other countries in the region.

--Israel said 11 of its soldiers had died in clashes in Gaza as of Wednesday morning, all men aged 19 to 24, as a result of ground operations.

The death toll rose to 24 on Friday.  Another seven Israeli soldiers and a civilian have been killed in different incidents along Israel’s border with Lebanon.

--U.S. officials confirmed this week that “several dozen” U.S. Special Operations forces are on the ground in Israel “actively helping the Israelis…identify hostages, including American hostages,” Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations Christopher Maier confirmed this week.

--President Biden, at a campaign event on Wednesday, said he thinks there should be a humanitarian “pause” in the war in order to get the hostages out, Biden stupidly using the term “prisoners.”

Secretary of State Blinken then urged the Israeli government to agree to a series of brief cessations of military operations in Gaza for hostages to be released safely and for humanitarian aid to be distributed, White House officials said on Thursday.

Blinken told reporters before boarding his plane to the Middle East: “We’ve seen in recent days Palestinian civilians continue to bear the brunt of this, this action.  And it’s important that the United States is committed to making sure everything possible is done to protect civilians.”

The White House emphasized that the request for pauses was far different from an overall ceasefire, which the administration believes would benefit Hamas by allowing it to recover from Israel’s intense bombardment.

Biden said Thursday that 74 Americans, dual citizens, were able to cross into Egypt.

--Friday, from Israel, Sec. of State Blinken reiterated U.S. support for Israel in the war, saying it has the right to defend itself.  But he said a “humanitarian pause” was needed to boost aid deliveries to Palestinian civilians.  Blinken said as many as 100 aid trucks a day were now getting through the Rafah crossing, but this was far less than needed.

After meeting Blinken, though, Prime Minister Netanyahu said Israel “refuses a temporary cease-fire that doesn’t include a return of our hostages.”  He said Israel was pressing ahead with its military offensive with “all of its power.”

Israeli troops have now encircled Gaza City.

The Palestinian Health Ministry said 9,200 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza, but it didn’t break down civilians and fighters, and I have to keep repeating, these totals by a Hamas-run ministry are subject to debate.

--Russia’s Wagner Group is about to give Hezbollah an SA-22 Pantsir air defense system, which is capable of shooting down aircraft, the Wall Street Journal reported Thursday.

The SA-22 system was provided to Syria and would be sent to Hezbollah, a source told the Journal.

--Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“The disturbing fact of the past month is that Jews are under attack not only in Israel and not only by Hamas.  The weeks since the barbaric Oct. 7 Hamas invasion of Israel have witnessed physical assaults on Jews the world over, including in the U.S. and Europe.  This most modern of pogroms – global, televised, politicized – demonstrates exactly what is at stake as Israel ramps up its defensive war against Hamas in Gaza.

“The Islamist group and its Western enablers are pursuing or justifying a genocidal war against Jews, not merely a territorial dispute with Israel. And since Western governments too often seem unable to protect the Jewish minorities in their midst, Israel must defend itself as the only safe home for the Jewish people….

“Two Jewish schools in London* closed for a period over safety concerns, and some British Jews no longer feel safe wearing visible symbols of their faith.  They’re probably right to worry the state can’t protect them.  Tens of thousands of protesters in London over three successive weekends called for ‘jihad’ and chanted ‘from the river to the sea,’ a demand for the erasure of Israel and by extension its citizens.  A crowd in Sydney, Australia, chanted ‘gas the Jews’ after the Hamas attack.

“Americans like to believe such things couldn’t happen in the U.S.  They have.  The Anti-Defamation League last week reported a 388% increase in anti-Semitic incidents from Oct. 7-23 compared with the same period a year ago.  The 213 incidents the ADL recorded include a car carrying individuals with Palestinian flags allegedly swerving toward a Jewish family and several alleged assaults by pro-Palestinian protesters.  The ADL tally counts 109 anti-Israel rallies that featured support for Hamas or violence against Jews in Israel….

“This is why Israel is fighting, and must fight, as hard as it is for its survival as a state. And why it’s inexcusable for any Western politician now to demand a ceasefire in Gaza.  No leader who is demonstrably incapable of protecting Jews in his or her own country should try to prevent Israel from defending itself.  This is how the West slips from ‘never again’ into ‘nowhere is safe.’

“This global war on Jews also clarifies what is at stake for Western societies in this fight. The West spent the decades after the civilizational catastrophe of the Holocaust vowing never again to allow itself to slide into such barbarism.  What we see now in the attacks on Jews is how that slide began.

“Before there was a Chancellor Hitler in 1933, there were roving bands of Brownshirts inflicting political and anti-Semitic violence on the streets of Germany.  They too often went unchecked by police, prosecutors and politicians who didn’t understand the menace, sympathized with the offenders, or merely felt overwhelmed by the scale of the danger.  Hitler gained power in part because the German state no longer could maintain its monopoly on violence in defense of democratic values.

“Today’s threats to democracy are different, but one lesson is the same and is crystal-clear: A  Western society that can’t or won’t muster the will to defend its Jewish neighbors and fellow citizens won’t be able to defend itself.”

*Antisemitic hate crime has soared in London, with 408 offenses recorded so far in (October) compared to 28 in the same period last year.  Islamophobic hate crime is also on the rise.

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This Week in Ukraine….

--Kyiv military officials said on Monday that Russia has bulked up its forces around the devastated city of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine and has switched its troops from defense to offense, but Ukraine has been preparing to repel the attacks.

A spokesman for Ukraine’s ground forces command said Russian forces had been preparing since early this month to retake positions around Bakhmut lost during the Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Ukraine also said Russian forces were particularly active near the Ukrainian-held town of Kupiansk in the northeast, where Russia had numerical superiority.

And Russia has been trying to encircle the strategic town of Avdiivka, southwest of Bakhmut.

--As noted above, on Capitol Hill, new GOP House Speaker Rep. Mike Johnson told Fox News on Sunday that he wants “a stand-alone Israel funding bill” without funding for Ukraine.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, on the other hand, is reportedly spearheading “public and private lobbying efforts to greenlight tens of billions of dollars in Ukraine assistance,” Politico reported Monday.

So this relationship between McConnell and Johnson is off to a rocky start.

--Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said the West wants to expand the conflict in Ukraine to the Asia-Pacific region, Russian state media reported, citing comments made at a defense forum in Beijing on Monday.

Shoigu said NATO is covering up a build-up of forces in the Asia-Pacific region with an “ostentatious desire for dialogue,” Russia’s TASS news agency reported.

Shoigu said NATO countries were promoting an arms race in the region, increasing their military presence and the frequency and scale of military drills there.

Good!  And it’s a bit rich for Shoigu to talk like this as Russia receives arms from North Korea and Iran for the war in Ukraine.

--Russia launched a score of drones and a missile in an overnight attack that targeted military and critical infrastructure, Ukraine’s air force said on Wednesday, while regional officials said the Kremenchuk oil refinery was hit.

The air force said 18 of the 20 Russian-launched kamikaze Shahed drones were destroyed before reaching their targets, as was the missile.

--On Tuesday, President Zelensky warned against expecting too much success too quickly.

Zelensky said: “The modern world is set up in such a way that it becomes accustomed to success too quickly.  When the full-scale aggression began, many in the world did not think Ukraine would endure.”

Ukraine’s military said Russian forces were gearing up for fresh attacks in different sections of the front, but there has been little movement along the 1,000km (600 mile) front line in recent months.

The president applauded Ukrainian offensive moves that have restricted the operations of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, but he said no one should expect rapid success stories in repelling Russia’s 20-month-old invasion.

--The Ukrainian government on Wednesday said it will introduce mandatory registration of food export companies aimed at preventing abuses such as tax avoidance in the export of key agrarian goods.

Ukraine is one of the world’s leading food producers and exporters, but officials estimate that up to a third of goods for subsequent export are bought in cash and without paying the necessary taxes.

Government data has showed that Ukraine’s grain exports in October had almost halved year-on-year to 2.15 million metric tons from 4.22 million.  Ukraine had exported a total of 8.9 million tons of grain in the 2023/24 July-June season, down from 12.9 million in the same period 2022/23.

--In an article for The Economist, Ukraine’s commander-in-chief, Valery Zaluzhnyi, said the war with Russia was moving to a new stage of positional warfare involving static and attritional fighting, a phrase he warned could benefit Moscow and allow it to rebuild its military power.  Zaluzhnyi said the Ukrainian army needed key new military capabilities and technology, including air power, to break out of that kind of war.  He also called for Ukraine to build up its army reserves and expand the categories of Ukrainian citizens who can be called up for training or to be mobilized.

--Russia bombarded 118 Ukrainian towns and villages in 24 hours, Wednesday, more than on any other day this year, says Ukrainian Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko.

He said 10 of Ukraine’s 27 regions had come under attack and the onslaught had caused deaths and injuries.  At least 40 drones were sent in several waves across a wide swath of the country, the Ukrainian air force said on Telegram.

Many of the communities hit were near the front lines in the east and south.

Russia has for weeks trained much of its military firepower on Avdiivka.

“(Avdiivka) is being erased, shattered. There have been more than 400 massive shelling attacks against the territorial community in the past day,” said local leader Vitaliy Barabash.

There was a report Thursday that 40,000 Russian troops are allegedly encircling Avdiivka, “which is now a political, rather than a tactical, aim,” one analyst told Reuters on Wednesday.

--Another wave of drones hit Ukrainian infrastructure overnight Thursday and early Friday, damaging energy facilities near Odesa and Kherson in the south, and striking the region of Lviv, on the border with Poland.  Homes and commercial buildings were also destroyed in Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city.  Casualties were not known.

--The Los Angeles Times’ Doyle McManus interviewed former Trump Russia advisor Fiona Hill, who fears that support for Ukraine is gradually eroding (it is), encouraging President Putin to try to wait the West out.

“Putin feels everything is trending in his favor,” she warns.

But she’s also worried how Israel’s war in Gaza will have an impact on both Israel and Ukraine.

“These could be global-system-shifting wars, something like World War I and World War II, which reflected and produced major changes in the international order,” she said.  “In a sense, the Hamas attack on Israel was a kind of Pearl Harbor moment. It opened a second front.”

Ukraine’s progress in the war has been “maddeningly slow,” as Doyle McManus wrote, “prompting impatience not only in the U.S., but in Europe as well.”

“We put too much weight on Ukraine’s counteroffensive,” Hill said.  “This is going to be a long war.  Putin thinks we will give up if he holds on long enough.”

The Russian leader is also “clearly waiting for 2024” and the prospect that Trump could return to the White House and cut off aid to Ukraine, she added.

Now add Gaza.

“This helps Putin,” Hill said.  “It’s going to distract the United States and European supporters of Ukraine.”

--Meanwhile, President Zelensky’s immediate and forceful support for Israel in its fight against Hamas “is imperiling almost a year of concerted efforts by Kyiv to win the support of Arab and Muslim nations in its war against Russia,” writes Isobel Koshiw in the Washington Post.

Zelensky’s early statements backing Israel, “helped Ukraine stay in the international spotlight, and placed it firmly on the side of the United States.”

In a recent speech to NATO’s Parliamentary Assembly, Zelensky said Hamas and Russia are the “same evil, and the only difference is that there is a terrorist organization that attacked Israel and here is a terrorist state that attacked Ukraine.”

But as Palestinian casualties mounted, countries like Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, which at times have provided crucial support to Ukraine, have accused the West of double standards in Gaza, alluding to the broad condemnation of civilian deaths in Ukraine compared with the muted criticism of Israel.

But aside from tension with Muslim and Arab nations, Kyiv must now contend with the world’s attention shifting to the Middle East, and the competing demands for U.S. military support, and new House Speaker Johnson opposing sending additional aid to Ukraine.

Zelensky was also slow to speak about the need to protect Palestinian civilians in Gaza as Israel stepped up retaliatory airstrikes.

Bottom line, support could dry up quickly, and Ukraine has a “Plan B,” according to Orysia Lutsevych, director of the Ukraine program at Chatham House, a London-based think tank.

Plan B is to distance itself as much as possible from external foreign politics, Lutsevych told the Washington Post.

“If America completely abandons Ukraine, it would be very difficult,” she said.  “But Ukraine will keep fighting with the resources it has on its own and it has from European allies.”

Good luck with that.

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Wall Street and the Economy

The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee (FOMC) left its benchmark funds rate unchanged on Wednesday, its second consecutive pause, as it said that inflation continues to be “elevated.”

In holding the line to a range of 5.25% to 5.50%, the FOMC said in its statement: “The committee will continue to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy.  In determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2% over time, the committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.”

The FOMC said that recent data suggest the economy expanded at a “strong” pace in the September quarter.  Job growth has moderated since earlier in the year, but continues to be strong, while the unemployment rate has remained low, according to the statement.

Last week, government data showed the economy growing at a stronger-than-expected pace in the third quarter, 4.9%, helped in part by an acceleration in consumer spending.

In his press conference after the decision, Chair Jerome Powell hinted the Fed may be finished tightening, but he also made it crystal clear the FOMC was not talking about cutting rates, and it could still raise them.

“The question we’re asking is; Should we hike more?” Powell told reporters.  “Slowing down is giving us, I think, a better sense of how much more we need to do, if we need to do more.”

So the market took this to mean rate hikes are over and clearly, the market continues to believe that rate cuts may be in the offing when Chair Powell could not have made himself clearer for the better part of a year now…higher for longer, and no rate cuts!

Powell also made it clear the Fed will have two inflation reports before its next decision, Dec. 12-13, and two employment reports to weigh, including today’s.

No matter, yields plummeted during and after Powell’s remarks, the 10-year, which hit 5.02% Oct. 23, fell all the way to 4.62% Thursday morning and then 4.52% Friday, before ending the week at 4.57%.

We did have other important economic news influencing both the stock and bond market.  Today’s jobs report for October was just what the markets, and the Fed, ordered…a tame one, 150,000 for nonfarm payroll, below estimates, while the prior two months were revised down sharply.  The unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%, with average hourly earnings rising 0.2%, 4.1% year-over-year, and down from the prior month’s 4.3%.  All good news for the Fed, the bond market and stocks.

During the week we also had soft numbers on manufacturing and services.  The Chicago manufacturing PMI for October was just 44.0 (50 the dividing line between growth and contraction), less than expected.

That was followed by the national ISM manufacturing reading, 46.7 for October, when 49.0 was consensus.  Today, the ISM service sector reading was 51.8, down from a prior 53.6.

One more, the Case-Shiller home price index for August was up 0.9% month-over-month, and 2.6% year-over-year, with the 20-city index up 2.2% Y/Y.

The Atlanta Fed’s very early GDPNow barometer for fourth-quarter growth is just 1.2%.

Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 7.76%, down three basis points and snapping a seven-week climb.  This should come down to about 7.60% or below next week with the huge rally in bonds, specifically in the key 10-year.

Lastly, the National Retail Federation said holiday spending is forecast to reach record levels this year – up 3% to 4% from last year.  This would total between $957.3 billion and $966.6 billion.

The NRF counts any spending between Nov. 1 and Dec. 31 as holiday spending, although nearly half of holiday shoppers begin browsing and shopping before November, according to NRF data.

Europe and Asia

We had the final October manufacturing PMI readings for the euro area, per S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank, 43.1, unchanged from September. 

Germany 40.8
France 42.8
Italy 44.9
Spain 45.1
Netherlands 43.8
Ireland 48.2
Greece 50.8

The service sector readings come out next week.

Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Bank:

“The Eurozone manufacturing sector’s trend over the last two years or so looks like a bumpy sleigh ride down into the valley. Given that the headline PMI did barely move over the last few months, including October, we may be about to reach the bottom of the valley.  Thus, the big question is when we will begin to make an ascent….

“It looks like the eurozone countries are pulling each other down. With France, Italy, and Spain PMIs diving and Germany already signaling a deep manufacturing recession, it is pretty clear that the sector is headed for contraction in all these countries this quarter.”

A flash estimate of third quarter GDP for the eurozone, released by Eurostat, was down 0.1% compared with the previous quarter, having grown 0.2% in the second quarter.

Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 0.1% in the euro area.

GDP Q3 over Q2 2023….

Germany -0.1%, France 0.1%, Italy 0.0%, Spain 0.3%.

In Germany, chemical giant BASF SE announced that it sees 2023 sales and earnings coming in at the lower end of its guidance, while shoppers at France’s Carrefour continue trading down to cheaper brands.

Meanwhile, a flash estimate of inflation in the euro area for October fell to 2.9% from 4.3% in September and 10.6% in October 2022.  Ex-food and energy, however, inflation is still at an estimated 5.0% pace, down from September’s core rate of 5.5% and 6.4% a year earlier.

Flash October headline inflation….

Germany 3.0%, France 4.5%, Italy 1.9%, Spain 3.5%, Netherlands -1.0%, Ireland 3.6%.

Lastly, Eurostat released the September employment report for the euro area, with the unemployment rate at 6.5%, up from 6.4% in August and down from 6.7% in September 2022.

Germany 3.0%, France 7.3%, Italy 7.4%, Spain 12.0%, Netherlands 3.7%, Ireland 4.2%.

Turning to Asia…China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported that the manufacturing PMI for October unexpectedly slipped below the 50-mark, 49.5, down from 50.2 in September.  The non-manufacturing (services) figure was 50.6, also down from 51.7 the month prior.  Not good for Beijing.

The private Caixin manufacturing number for October was also 49.5 vs. 50.6.  Services came in at 50.4 vs. 50.2 prior.

Japan…The manufacturing PMI for October was 48.7 vs. 48.5 in September.

September industrial production was down 4.6% year-over-year, but retail sales were up 5.8% Y/Y.

The September unemployment rate was 2.6%.

Separately, the Bank of Japan tried to thread the needle, announcing a policy that aims to nudge bond yields higher. The bank said it would use 1 percent as a starting point for yields on 10-year government bonds, instead of a cap, saying it expected inflation to go higher than it had previously believed.  In July, it had announced it would allow those yields to rise above 0.5 percent, which had been the bank’s ceiling.

The next day the BoJ stepped into the bond market unexpectedly to curb the pace of gains in sovereign yields, one day after saying it was loosening its grip.

The Japanese 10-year had touched 0.97% - a fresh decade-high but still below the new 1% cap it removed, and it closed the week at 0.91%

South Korea’s October manufacturing PMI was 49.8 vs. 49.9 in September.  Taiwan’s was 47.6 vs. 46.4 prior.

South Korea’s exports increased by 5.1% year-on-year in October, the first rise in more than a year.  Exports to the U.S. surged by 17.3%.  Goods and services sent to China fell by 9.5%, the smallest drop in 13 months.

Street Bytes

--Stocks staged their biggest rally of the year, with investors believing the Fed is done hiking rates, a tame jobs report, weak ISM numbers, bonds rallying in response, there wasn’t any escalation in the Middle East, so buy stocks.  For one week, a very simple formula. 

The Dow Jones rose 5.1% to 34061, the S&P 500 5.9% and Nasdaq 6.6%.  The small-cap Russell 2000 soared 7.6% to get back to even on the year.

Next week’s narrative could be different, though there is no economic news to upset the apple cart.

Speaking of Apple, even that stock rallied back (stupidly) today, after opening lower on its poor earnings report (see below).

For the month of October, the S&P 500 lost 2.2%, with Nasdaq down 2.8%, but those losses were cut significantly Monday and Tuesday, the last two days of the month.

October losses came on the heels of the rough third quarter, with the S&P falling 3.6%, its first quarterly loss in a year amid the interest rate concerns.

But at least for the short term, those same concerns have been ameliorated.

--U.S. Treasury Yields

6-mo. 5.47%  2-yr. 4.83%  10-yr. 4.57%  30-yr. 4.76%

The yield on the 10-year is at its lowest weekly close in six weeks, down a stupendous 26 basis points since last Friday, the 2-year down 17 bps.

Overseas, the yield on the German 10-year fell to 2.64% from last Friday’s close of 2.83%, befitting the global rally.  Italy’s 10-year yield fell to 4.50% from 4.80%.

The British 10-year yield fell to 4.28% from 4.54%, as the Bank of England paused a second time, a la the Federal Reserve, at its latest policy meeting on Thursday, though the BoE ruled out cuts any time soon.

--Oil fell hard for a second week to close today at $80.97 on West Texas Intermediate, down a whopping $8 in two weeks as the Israel-Hamas war didn’t escalate.

But the World Bank said crude prices could rise to more than $150 a barrel if the conflict in the Middle East escalates.  A drawn-out war in the region could drive big rises in energy and food prices, the Bank warned.

Under its worst-case scenario, the WB said a situation could develop that was comparable with the oil crisis of the 1970s, which could push oil prices up to between $140 and $157 a barrel.

In October 1973, Arab oil producing nations cut exports to the U.S. and other countries that supported Israel in the Yom Kippur War.  It sent prices sky high.

Indermit Gill, chief economist at the World Bank, said policymakers would need to be vigilant, as the scenario of a “dual energy shock,” affecting supplies of both oil and gas, had not occurred for decades.

--Apple late Thursday reported fiscal fourth-quarter results that beat Wall Street’s estimates as a gain in iPhone sales helped counter declines in iPad and Mac revenue.  But it was far from scintillating.

Per-share earnings for the quarter ended Sept. 30 came in at $1.46, up from $1.29 a year earlier with consensus at $1.39.  Net sales, though, slipped 1% to $89.5 billion, though slightly beating the Street’s outlook for $89.42bn.

All eyes were on iPhone sales, which rose to $43.81 billion from $42.63bn a year earlier.  The Mac and iPad categories reported declines, to $7.61bn and $6.44bn, respectively, from $11.51bn and $7.17bn.

Overall product sales slid to $67.18 billion from $70.96bn, while services increased to $22.31bn from $19.19bn.

“Our active installed base of devices has again reached a new all-time high across all products and all geographic segments,” CFO Luca Maestri said.

But with the end of the fiscal year, understand that Apple’s sales declined in each quarter, down 3% from the prior fiscal year, and the first time Apple’s fiscal year revenue dropped since 2019.

Investors have grown skittish about the iPhone’s prospects in China, which accounts for about a fifth of Apple sales and hosts its biggest production base.  The country’s consumer economy is reeling, while U.S. businesses face increasing pressure from Beijing as a technology conflict with the U.S. rages.  Huawei’s surprise August debut of a smartphone with an advanced made-in-China 5G processor also tapped a vein of patriotism that’s taken sales away from the iPhone.

Apple’s revenue in Greater China declined 2% - a steeper drop than the companywide figure.  And that trend is expected to continue.

Apple’s share price then fell 3% Friday in response to the numbers, but as noted above pared its losses later in the day with the overall market rally.  It didn’t help early on that CEO Tim Cook predicted flat December-quarter revenue.

--Last Saturday, Jeep maker Stellantis reached a tentative contract agreement with the United Auto Workers union that follows a template set earlier by Ford.  Like workers at Ford, the strikers at Stellantis took down their picket lines and returned to work, before 43,000 union members voted.

Stellantis workers, like Ford, will receive a 25% boost in general wages over the next 4 ½ years for top assembly plant workers, with 11% coming once the deal is ratified. Workers will also get cost-of-living pay that would bring the raises to over 30%, with top assembly plant workers making more than $40 per hour.  Like the Ford contract, the Stellantis deal would run through April 30, 2028.

The deal includes a new vehicle for a now-idled factory in Belvidere, Illinois, which the company had planned to close.

--General Motors and the UAW then reached a tentative agreement on Monday, with its members winning record pay hikes to end six weeks of a coordinated strike against the Detroit Three automakers.

[The UAW had expanded its strike against GM on Saturday after reaching its agreement with Stellantis in order to put more pressure on GM to wrap up negotiations.]

The new contracts will significantly raise costs for the automakers.  Most analysts have said the deals will place the Detroit Three at a disadvantage compared with Tesla and foreign brands such as Toyota which are not unionized.

The UAW won from GM roughly the same package of wage increases to which it agreed with the other two, a package raising top pay for veteran workers by 33%.  GM workers are returning to work while the new contract is ratified.

The company will make $2,500 lump sum payments to retirees under the new agreement.

“GM is pleased to have reached a tentative agreement with the UAW that reflects the contributions of the team while enabling us to continue to invest in our future and provide good jobs in the U.S.,” said GM CEO Mary Barra, who you can imagine is far from pleased.

Nearly 50,000 workers out of nearly 150,000 union members at the Detroit automakers eventually joined the series of walkouts that began on Sept. 15.  The Detroit Three lost $billions.

In the case of GM, some experts believe the new deal will cost GM $7 billion over 4.5 years in higher labor costs.

The UAW said it wants negotiations in 2028 to be with more than the Detroit Three, as in they will target the likes of Toyota to unionize.  This could be explosive, as you picture protests at a Toyota, Honda or BMW plant(s) down the road.

But give UAW President Shawn Fain a lot of credit.  His strategy worked, including striking workers getting back some of the pay they missed by walking out from the Detroit Three as part of the agreements. [On top of the pay they received from the UAW strike fund.]

--Toyota Motor’s nonunion U.S. factory workers will receive a wage increase on Jan. 1 and other benefits including more paid time off, according to media reports Wednesday.

The Japanese automaker is raising the hourly rate of manufacturing workers at top pay by about 9% and reducing the years needed by production workers to reach top pay by half to four years.

The decision to raise wages was no doubt a response to the wage gains the UAW received, and an effort to stave off trouble down the road.

Separately, Toyota reported operating profit of $9.5 billion in the third quarter, more than double the figure recorded during the same period last year.

And…it is recalling more than 1.8 million RAV4 vehicles over a potential fire risk.  Batteries in certain RAV4 cars from the model years 2013 to 2018 are too small which could cause them to shift during forceful turns and possibly catch fire, the carmaker said in a statement Wednesday.  Toyota said it would notify affected car owners by the end of the year if their vehicle is included in the voluntary recall.

--TSA checkpoint numbers vs. 2019

11/2…96 percent of 2019 levels
11/1…100
10/31…83…huh…
10/30…95
10/29…102
10/28…110
10/27…113
10/26…128

--FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried’s spectacular rise and fall in the cryptocurrency industry hit rock bottom Thursday when a New York jury convicted him of fraud for stealing at least $10 billion from customers and investors.

After the monthlong trial, jurors rejected Bankman-Fried’s claim during testimony in Manhattan federal court that he never committed fraud or meant to cheat customers before FTX, once the world’s second-largest crypto exchange, collapsed into bankruptcy a year ago.

Bankman-Fried was guilty on seven counts, which carry potential penalties adding up to 110 years in prison, though he is likely to face far less than the maximum at a sentencing set for March 28.

U.S. Attorney Damian Williams said outside the courthouse that Bankman-Fried “perpetrated one of the biggest financial frauds in American history, a multibillion dollar scheme designed to make him the king of crypto.”

“But here’s the thing: The cryptocurrency industry might be new.  The players like Sam Bankman-Fried might be new. This kind of fraud, this kind of corruption is as old as time and we have no patience for it,” Williams said.

The jury of nine women and three men deliberated less than five hours.

--Shipping giant A.P. Moller-Maersk reported a steep drop in third-quarter profit and revenue on Friday and said it would cut at least 10,000 jobs in the face of overcapacity, rising costs and weaker prices, sending its shares tumbling.

Maersk, which controls about one-sixth of global container trade, transporting goods for a host of major retailers and consumer goods companies such as Walmart and Nike, flagged a steeper downturn in demand than analysts and investors had expected.

“The new normal we are now headed into is one of a more subdued macroeconomic outlook, and thus soft volume demands for the coming years, prices back in line with historical levels, inflationary pressures on our cost base, especially from energy cost, and also increased geopolitical uncertainty,” CEO Vincent Clerc said on an investor call.

The industry invested heavily in new container ships during and after the pandemic to meet strong demand and benefit from record freight rates.  A large number of new ships entered the market since the summer with no signs of idling or scrapping, said Clerc.

--Caterpillar reported Q3 adjusted earnings Tuesday of $5.52 per share, up from $3.95 a year earlier.  The Street was at $4.79.

Revenue was $16.81 billion, up from $14.99 billion a year earlier and also ahead of consensus of $16.56bn.

Caterpillar’s results came as strong infrastructure investments across key markets boosted demand for its high-end construction equipment in North America.

Demand for heavy equipment has been on the rise as the U.S. upgrades its roads, railways and other transportation infrastructure under a $1 trillion package approved by Congress in 2021.

Caterpillar’s profit has also benefited from effective cost controls and price hikes shielding margins amid ongoing inflationary pressures.

But investors have grown concerned about dealer inventories as general contractors forgo borrowing cash to purchase equipment in an elevated interest rate environment.

The shares then fell hard after the company reported a decline in its order backlog and guidance for the current quarter that was below expectations.

--Advanced Micro Devices stock rose sharply on Wednesday even after the chip maker gave a disappointing revenue forecast for its December quarter.

AMD reported third-quarter adjusted earnings of 70 cents, compared with the Street’s consensus estimate of 68 cents. Revenue came in at $5.8 billion, above forecasts of $5.7bn.

But AMD said that fourth quarter revenue would be “approximately $6.1 billion, plus or minus $300 million,” when Wall Street was at $6.4bn for the quarter.

The shares nonetheless rallied on the company’s outlook for 2024, including on the AI side.

--Chip designer Qualcomm forecast first-quarter sales and profits above Wall Street targets on Wednesday as a smartphone sales slump finally starts to ease and a renewed contract with Apple helps boost its outlook.

The San Diego, California-based company forecast current-quarter revenue of $9.1 billion to $9.9 billion, with a midpoint above analysts’ expectations of $9.2 billion.  Qualcomm predicted current-quarter adjusted profits of $2.25 and $2.45 per share, beating expectations of $2.23.

For the just-ended quarter the company reported sales of $8.67bn and adjusted profit of $2.02 per share, both above the Street’s $8.51bn and $1.91 per share.  The stock rose 5% in response.

Chipmakers have been grappling with a smartphone market slump.  QCOM is also facing new competition from Huawei Technologies, which has resumed producing its own smartphone chips after relying on the U.S. company for the past several years.

Qualcomm said in September it signed a fresh supply agreement with iPhone maker Apple that runs to 2026.

--CVS Health Corp. tempered its forecast for 2024 earnings on Wednesday to account for potentially higher medical costs at its insurance unit as older adults increasingly avail healthcare services deferred during the pandemic, sending its shares down a bit.

The company said investors should focus on the lower half of its 2024 earnings forecast of $8.50 to $8.70 per share made in August as it was uncertain about utilization of services by members of its government-supported Medicare insurance plans.

CVS’ third-quarter profit of $2.21 per share beat the Street’s $2.13 forecast on strength in its drugstores and pharmacy benefit management business.   The company’s pharmacy and consumer wellness segment recorded 6% revenue growth to $28.87 billion, boosted by higher drug prices and prescription volume.

--President Biden signed an executive order on Monday that requires developers of artificial intelligence systems that pose risks to U.S. national security, the economy, public health or safety to share the results of safety tests with the U.S. government, in line with the Defense Production Act, before they are released to the public.  It also directs agencies to set standards for that testing and address related chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear and cybersecurity risks.

“To realize the promise of AI and avoid the risk, we need to govern this technology,” Biden said.  “In the wrong hands AI can make it easier for hackers to exploit vulnerabilities in the software that makes our society run.”

One expert in the field, Bradley Tusk, CEO at Tusk Ventures, a venture capital firm with investments in tech and AI, welcomed the move, but he said tech companies would likely shy away from sharing proprietary data with the government over fears it could be provided to rivals.

--A federal jury on Tuesday found the National Association of Realtors and large residential brokerages liable for about $1.8 billion in damages after determining they conspired to keep commissions for home sales artificially high.

The verdict could lead to industrywide upheaval by changing decades-old rules that have helped lock in commission rates even as home prices have skyrocketed – which has allowed real-estate agents to collect ever-larger sums.

Under antitrust rules, the presiding judge could triple the damages verdict, which would total more than $5 billion.

The NAR said: “This matter is not close to being final as we will appeal the jury’s verdict.”

Personally, having been involved in the disposal of a property two years ago, I loved my realtor, who put in a ton of work, offered super advice, and I never gave it a second thought that she deserved the full 5% she received.

The CEO of the NAR resigned two days after the jury verdict.  Bob Goldberg had previously planned to retire at the end of 2024, but the New York Times back in August had published an article showing that the organization was rife with complaints of harassment and discrimination from multiple women.

--WeWork, the ailing office-sharing firm, will file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy next week, according to the Wall Street Journal.  This would be a stunning reversal for a company once valued at $47 billion.

A WeWork bankruptcy will create a world of hurt for New York landlords already struggling with too many empty spaces in their buildings.

WeWork rents 6.4 million square feet across more than 70 Manhattan locations from at least a dozen landlords, according to Crain’s New York Business.

The company will be able to tear up unprofitable leases in court, forcing landlords to find new tenants – a tall order when vacancy rates hover around 20% for the older buildings WeWork normally rents.

WeWork landlords in some cases will recover no more than pennies on the dollar.

--Marriot International Inc. on Thursday reported third-quarter earnings of $752 million.  Adjusted profit was $2.11 per share, surpassing the average estimate by a penny.  Revenue of $5.93 billion also slightly beat.

Marriott said comparable systemwide constant dollar RevPAR (revenue per available room) increased 8.8% worldwide, 4.3% in the U.S. and Canada, and 21.8% in international markets, compared to the 2022 third quarter.  It sees Q4 comparable systemwide RevPAR growth of 6.0%-7.5%.

For the current quarter ending in December, Marriott expects its per share EPS to range from $2.04 to $2.13, above current consensus.  But for the year, the company guided lower on earnings than existing forecasts.

--It was big news in New Jersey this week when renewable energy firm Orsted on Wednesday halted the development of two offshore wind projects and said related impairments had surged above $5 billion, as the industry grapples with supply chain delays and higher costs.

Orsted, the world’s largest offshore wind developer, said it would stop developing its Ocean Wind 1 and 2 projects in New Jersey.  Related impairments could amount to as much as $5.58 billion.  The stock plunged 22% to a six-year low.

The offshore wind industry has found itself in a perfect storm of rising inflation, interest rates and supply chain delays, casting doubt on plans by President Biden and several states to use offshore wind to replace fossil fuels in energy production to fight climate change.

On Tuesday, energy major BP booked a third quarter writedown of $540 million on wind projects after officials in New York State rejected a request for better terms to reflect what BP called “inflationary pressures and permitting delays.”  Norway’s Equinor, BP’s partner on the New York offshore wind developments, booked a $300 million impairment on the projects last Friday.

I wrote of Orsted’s problems this summer, when at the time the Danish company warned it faced major issues, and now CEO Mads Nipper said this week that committing the funds to begin developing Ocean Wind 1, the most advanced of the two projects, “was the wrong decision.”

Wind developers have said the electricity price on offer at auctions has been too low for them to embark on new projects given the industry’s problems with rising costs.  Nipper said the industry needs a “reset.”

Needless to say, Democratic New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy was fuming at the development, Murphy with ambitious clean energy goals (and a future run for the White House), and it was a rather stunning development for environmentalists.

Murphy said in a statement Orsted’s decision to “abandon its commitments to New Jersey is outrageous and calls into question the company’s credibility and competence.”

--X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, is worth less than half of what Elon Musk paid for it a year ago.

Restricted stock units awarded to employees value the company at $19 billion, while a year ago, Musk bought Twitter for $44 billion.

--Shares in Starbucks soared 10% Thursday as the company reported better-than-expected fiscal fourth-quarter results as coffee drinkers spent more in the retailer’s outlets and sought out pricier beverages, while sales grew in the U.S. and internationally.

Adjusted earnings surged 31% to $1.06 a share for the quarter ended Oct. 1, ahead of the Capital IQ-polled consensus of $0.97.  Revenue climbed to $9.37 billion from $8.41 billion a year earlier, topping the Street’s view for $9.28bn.  The average ticket rose 6% in North America.

CEO Laxman Narasimhan said in a statement: “We expect sustained momentum throughout the company for years to come.”  A rather cocky statement considering in down times, it’s a product you can easily cut back on, but then I’m a Dunkin’ Donuts guy.

That said, global comp store sales rose 8%, with the average ticket up 3%.  North America same-store sales gained 8%.

China sales improved 5%, compared with a 16% decline last year.

Global comp sales are expected to grow by 5% to 7% for the current year, with the Street at 7%.

--McDonald’s shares rallied about 2% on Monday after the company reported better-than-expected sales in the third quarter as popular promotions brought in customers despite higher U.S. prices.

Global same-store sales rose 8.8% in the July-September period, the burger giant said, ahead of the Street’s expectations. In the U.S., same-store sales rose 8.1%.

McDonald’s raised prices on some menu items in the U.S., but it also drew customers with promotions like a 50-cent double cheeseburger on National Cheeseburger Day in September.  [Drat!  I missed that.]

McDonald’s revenue rose 14% to $6.69 billion, while adjusted net income rose 17% to $2.3 billion.

The company earned $3.17 per share, beating Wall Street’s forecast of $3.00.

--Yum Brands on Wednesday topped Wall Street estimates for third-quarter sales as inflation continues to weigh on budgets, prompting more consumers to turn to Taco Bell and KFC for cheaper restaurant meals.  The shares were basically unchanged after the report.

Yum has banked on aggressive promotions and limited-time offers across its brands to attract customers, such as KFC’s $20 Fill Up Box deal offering a family meal including 12-piece nuggets, fries and biscuits.  Overall dining traffic fell throughout the quarter, but Taco Bell saw visits increase 3%, according to data from location analytics firm Placer.ai.

Pizza Hut’s same-store sales globally rose 1%.  The chain’s sales were flat in the U.S.

Global same-store sales at Taco Bell rose 8% in the quarter, while KFC posted an increase of 6%.

Total same-store sales at Yum Brands rose 6% in the quarter, beating consensus of 4.7%.  On an adjusted basis, Yum earned $416 million, $1.44 per share, beating expectations of $1.28; revenue coming in at $1.71 billion, which missed Street forecasts of $1.77bn.

It’s time for my quarterly gripe as well…that I don’t have a Taco Bell or KFC in my area!

Meanwhile, Yum China Holdings, a separate company, saw revenues for the quarter of $2.91 billion, up 9% from $2.69 billion a year earlier, but below forecasts.  Adjusted earnings advanced to $0.59, up from $0.49 the year before, but shy of consensus of $0.62.

Same-store sales increased by 4%, missing the 7% growth modeled by analysts.  KFC same-store sales gained 4%, while Pizza Hut declined 2%.  Total costs and expenses widened to $2.59 billion from $2.37bn year-over-year.

The company said it expects to open 1,400 to 1,600 new stores in 2023, an increase of 300 stores from the prior outlook.

So with all the ‘misses,’ the shares cratered about 19% in response.

--Wendy’s Co. on Thursday reported third-quarter profit of $58 million, 27 cents per share, adjusted, beating the Street’s 26 cents per share estimate.

Revenue came in at $550.6 million in the period, which was shy of expectations.  Same-store sales growth was 2.8% (2.2% in the U.S. and 7.8% internationally).

Wendy’s said it expects systemwide sales growth of mid-single digits for 2024-25.

As opposed to KFC and Taco Bell not being near me, I do have a nearby Wendy’s I don’t visit enough, though I always liked their food.  So, I just put a post-it up on the wall… “Go to Wendy’s” to encourage same.

Foreign Affairs, Part II

China: The People’s Liberation Army said on Monday that a Philippine vessel “illegally entered” waters near Scarborough Shoal without authorization and it urged the Philippines to immediately stop its provocations.  China and the Philippines have had several confrontations in recent weeks in disputed waters in the South China Sea.

The Scarborough Shoal is claimed by China, the Philippines and Taiwan.

“The Philippine side’s actions have seriously violated China’s sovereignty and international law and basic norms governing international relations, and are prone to misunderstanding and miscalculations,” a PLA spokesperson said.  Such B.S.

The PLA also announced it will “show no mercy” against any moves for Taiwan independence, a top Chinese military official told a regional security forum on Monday.

“No matter who wishes to separate Taiwan from China in any way, the Chinese military will never agree to it,” General Zhang Youxia, vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission, said in a speech at the Beijing Xiangshan Forum.

He said Taiwan was the “core of China’s core interests.”

But actually the statement was rather tame, by Chinese standards.

Editorial / Wall Street Journal…on Chinese provocations, both on sea and in the air, confronting U.S. aircraft flying in international airspace….

“Mr. Xi might be assuming the United States is too focused on Israel’s war with Hamas and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to pay attention to the Chinese military’s increasingly confrontational moves. Chinese officials, masters at gaslighting and projecting the government’s own actions onto others, of course accused the U.S. military of making a provocative move with a Navy warship. Beijing released its own video to back up its specious claim.

“Whatever China’s precise rationale might be, it’s imperative that the administration send constant reminders to Beijing and to America’s allies in the region that the United States is a Pacific power and can deal with multiple crises at once.  President Biden, speaking this week alongside Australia’s visiting prime minister, sent the right signal, emphasizing that the United States’ defense commitment to the Philippines ‘is ironclad.’  He added that any attack on Philippine vessels, aircraft or troops would trigger the 1951 mutual defense treaty between the two countries, which commits the United States, in the event of such an attack, ‘to meet the common dangers in accordance with its constitutional processes.’  Restating this deterrent commitment is the right way to reinforce it.  And reinforcing it is the right way to make sure China is not tempted to test it.”

Presidents Xi and Biden are still slated to meet at some point during the Nov. 11-17 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco.

North Korea: Chinese President Xi sent a letter to Kim Jong Un pledging to make a “greater contribution” to strengthen China-North Korea relations, North Korean state media reported.

Xi made the commitment in a response to a congratulatory message from Kim last month to mark the 74th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China, the Korean Central News Agency reported on Thursday.

In the letter dated Saturday, Xi said China and North Korea were friendly neighbors bordered by mountains and rivers, and the traditional friendship between the two countries was “becoming stronger as time passes.”

“I will push for China-North Korea relations to move forward and develop with the times amid serious and complex changes in the international and regional situation,” Xi said in the letter, according to KCNA.

“I am willing to make a greater contribution to protect regional peace, stability, development and prosperity.”

“I sincerely hope that the brotherly Korean people will achieve new and greater results in the cause of socialist construction under the leadership of the Workers’ Party of Korea headed by comrade general secretary.”

This is absolutely nuts on so many levels.

Iran: Reul Marc Gerecht and Ray Takeyh / Wall Street Journal

“Iran has patiently built up its ‘axis of resistance’ over 20 years. This alliance among Iran, the Syrian regime, Hezbollah, Hamas and other radical Sunni and Shiite Arab militias is an expression of the Islamic Republic’s vibrant anti-Western ethos.  It’s also a means by which the clerical regime can overcome the enormous damage the Syrian civil war has inflicted on its standing among Sunni Muslims.  Despite the theocracy’s crucial role in driving Islamic sectarianism, its aspirations to be a vanguard for all Muslims still define Iran’s self-image.

“Tehran can’t sit back and watch Israel obliterate Hamas. Fortunately for the clerical regime, the Palestinian proxy in Gaza will be hard to destroy.  The farther the Israel Defense Forces advance, the more pressure will mount on the Islamic Republic to expand the conflict. Since the theocracy isn’t suicidal, it will try to calibrate its aggression.  Tehran has never been willing to escalate with Jerusalem into direct confrontation.  That fear ought to guide both Israeli and American actions.

“The Islamic Republic has always relied on terrorist organizations to do its bidding.  Since the 1980s, Tehran’s most operationally savvy protégé, Hezbollah, has given the regime the ability to manipulate Lebanese politics and kill scores of its enemies, including U.S. troops.  In the aftermath of 9/11, especially after the 2010 Arab Spring, the Iranians fine-tuned their grand strategy.  The collapsing Arab state system allowed the mullahs to assemble nonstate paramilitary outfits that then could deploy to various battlegrounds.  Iran-aided militias helped evict the U.S. from Iraq, ensured the survival of Bashar al-Assad’s dictatorship in Syria, and mauled Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in Yemen.

“The axis of resistance has transformed the Islamic Republic into the region’s most essential power broker.  No government can form in Iraq, Syria or Lebanon without its consent.  Iran’s auxiliary forces also deter its enemies. Should Israeli or American leaders consider striking Iran’s nuclear installations, they have to take into account Hezbollah’s formidable arsenal of missiles.  And the war in Gaza, for which the Islamic Republic had long been prepping Hamas, has reminded Arab potentates that expanding the Abraham Accords carries enormous risks.

“Yet the axis of resistance needs Hamas to survive in some form. Going full martyr – Sunnis die, Shiites watch – would leave Iran caged and embarrassed.  Iran’s theocracy has signaled its intent.  On his recent tour of the Middle East, Iranian Foreign Minister Amirabdollahian warned: ‘If the Zionist aggression does not stop, the hands of all parties in the region are on the trigger.’  Nor was he being coy about one set of hands.  ‘The whole world knows that Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah’ – Hezbollah’s leader – ‘is a man of action and has played an outstanding role in securing the region and Lebanon.’  There have already been modest clashes on Israel’s northern border….

“What the White House shouldn’t do is quietly warn Tehran not to meddle in Gaza or to unleash Hezbollah. The Islamic Republic is accustomed to back-channel admonishments. America’s armadas have patrolled the Gulf for years without sufficiently changing the mullahs’ calculus.  To make a lasting impression on (Iranian Supreme Leader) Khamenei, Mr. Biden needs to declare publicly a red line: Another Hezbollah missile attack on Israel will invite direct U.S. retaliation on Iran.  In 2003, when Mr. Khamenei feared the possibility of the Bush administration unleashing its ‘shock and awe’ warfare on Iran, the clerical regime suspended its uranium enrichment. When the perennially unpredictable Donald Trump killed the Islamic Republic’s famed commander Qasem Soleimani, Mr. Khamenei let loose a short missile barrage at U.S. forces in Iraq but went no further.

“Iranian escalation this time around is a certainty.  Jerusalem and Washington need to deny themselves wiggle room and threaten the clerical regime, not its proxies. This war is going to get worse.  It’s past time for Israel and the U.S. to up the ante.”

Pakistan/Afghanistan:  Pakistani authorities began rounding up undocumented foreigners, most of them Afghans, on Wednesday, ahead of a midnight deadline for them to leave or face expulsion. The removal of people to temporary holding centers began a day earlier than previously announced.

The interior ministry said 140,000 people* had voluntarily left after days in which trucks piled high with belongings and crammed with people have jammed major roads out of the country.

*At week’s end 200,000 were in Afghanistan.

Pakistan set the Nov. 1 start date last month for the expulsion of all undocumented immigrants, including hundreds of thousands of Afghans.  It cited security reasons, brushing off calls to reconsider from the United Nations, rights groups and Western embassies.  Some of those ordered to leave have spent decades in Pakistan.

Many of the Afghans fled their home country in the late 1970s, while the Taliban takeover after the U.S. withdrawal in 2021 led to another exodus.  Pakistan has taken a hardline stance, saying Afghan nationals have been behind militant attacks, smuggling and other crimes.  Kabul has dismissed the accusations.  In the Afghan capital, the Taliban asked all countries hosting Afghan refugees to give them more time to prepare for repatriation.  The Taliban added it was assuring Afghans leaving over political concerns that they could return and live peacefully in Afghanistan.

But picture all these new refugees will just add to the existing humanitarian crisis in the country.

India: Apple notified a number of Indian opposition lawmakers this week that their phones were likely targets of state-sponsored attackers, prompting several of the individuals to express concern about the possible use of surveillance by the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

“Apple believes you are being targeted by state-sponsored attackers who are trying to remotely compromise the iPhone associated with your Apple ID,” said the notification dated Oct. 30 from Apple, according to emails seen by the Wall Street Journal.  “These attackers are likely targeting you individually because of who you are or what you do.”

The politicians included a number of members of the opposition Congress Party.

This is disturbing, and fits a pattern by Modi, who has been trampling civil liberties in recent years.

Random Musings

Gallup: 37% approve of President Biden’s job performance, 59% disapprove; 35% of independents approve (Oct. 2-23).

Rasmussen; 41% approve, 57% disapprove (Nov. 3).

A new Quinnipiac University national poll has Biden with a 39% approval rating, 58% disapproval, similar to a 38-56 split on October 17.

--Former Vice President Mike Pence saw the handwriting on the wall and suspended his campaign for president amid lagging poll numbers and financial challenges, vowing to help elect “principled Republican leaders” moving forward.

Pence had little hope of qualifying for next week’s debate, and that concern was a driving factor in his decision, as fundraising was minimal.

Pence, after breaking from Donald Trump, sought to refocus on the core conservative principles that founded the modern Republican Party with Ronald Reagan, his political beacon.  Pence in his speeches urged the party to turn away from populism.

But this is not today’s GOP, unfortunately.

--A new Des Moines Register/ NBC News survey of Republican caucus goers in Iowa had Donald Trump at 43%, with Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis at 16%, Haley up 10% since an August poll.  Tim Scott was at 7%.

--In a CNN poll of South Carolina Republican primary goers, Trump received 53% of the ‘first choice’ vote, but Nikki Haley had moved into second with 22%, Ron DeSantis 11% and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott just 6%.

South Carolina holds its Republican primary on Feb. 24, after Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada.

Last week in a campaign event in Nevada, Trump slammed Haley, whom he has recently bestowed with the nickname “Bird Brain,” for running against him after earlier saying she never would and support his bid for the White House.

“Somebody said that Bird Brain is now in second place, but she’s going nowhere,” he said of his former ambassador to the United Nations.

Haley, in a speech last Saturday to the Republican Jewish Coalition, said of Trump’s campaign: “The stakes couldn’t be higher.  And given those stakes, we cannot have four years of chaos, vendettas and drama.”

She added: “Eight years ago, it was good to have a leader who broke things. But right now, we need a leader who also knows how to put things back together.”

--The above-mentioned Quinnipiac University national poll of registered voters had some interesting results.

Among Republican and Republican leaning voters, Donald Trump was still at 64%, followed by Ron DeSantis with 15%, and Nikki Haley 8%.  Tim Scott, Chris Christie and Vivek Ramaswamy were all at 3% each.

In the Democratic primary race, Joe Biden receives 77% and Marianne Williamson 8%.  Dean Phillips was at 6% (more on him below).

In a hypothetical matchup between Biden and Trump, Biden receives 47%, Trump 46%, a virtual dead heat and unchanged from Quinnipiac’s August and September surveys.

Now the above isn’t really interesting, but what is is when Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is thrown into a hypothetical three-way race, and here, Biden gets 39%, Trump 36% and RFK Jr. a whopping 22%.

Among independents, 36% support Kennedy, 31% Trump, and 30% Biden.

When Cornell West, who is running as an independent, is added to make a four-person hypothetical, Biden gets 36%, Trump 35%, Kennedy 19%, West 8%.

Quinnipiac Polling Analyst Tim Malloy says: “With minority and younger voters seeming intrigued, Kennedy, for now, enjoys the kind of demographic support his charismatic father and uncles generated decades ago.”

--U.S. District Judge Tanya S. Chutkan on Sunday reimposed a gag order on Donald Trump she had lifted nine days earlier to give Trump and U.S. prosecutors more time to argue whether the restrictions were unconstitutional, as attorneys for Trump had claimed.  If Trump violates the gag, as he did a similar order by a state judge in New York, Chutkan will have to decide how to punish the leading presidential candidate.

Under the existing order Trump and all interested parties in the Jan. 6 case are barred from making or directing others to make public statements that “target” individual attorneys, witnesses, “any reasonably foreseeable witness,” or court staff involved in the case or the substance of their testimony.  While the order was on hold, Trump posted a comment on social media calling special counsel Jack Smith “deranged” and saying former chief of staff Mark Meadows would be a lying coward if he testified for the prosecution. 

Trump appeared to potentially violate Chutkan’s order 75 minutes after she gave notice that it was reinstated, attacking his former attorney general and potential witness, William P. Barr.

“I called Bill Barr Dumb, Weak, Slow Moving, Lethargic, Gutless, and Lazy, a RINO WHO COULDN’T DO THE JOB,” Trump said in part of an 88-word post on Truth Social that both belittled the man he chose to serve as the nation’s top law-enforcement officer and exaggerated his crowd sizes. “So now this Moron says about me, to get even, ‘his verbal skills are limited.’  Well, that’s one I haven’t heard before. Tell that to the biggest political crowds in the history of politics, by far.  Bill Barr is a LOSER!”

--Last week I wrote of how Muslim-Arab Americans could withhold their votes for President Biden in key battleground states like Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania, and this week some Muslim and Arab American groups did indeed threaten they would withhold donations and votes “for any candidate who endorses the Israeli offensive against the Palestinian people.”

--Editorial / Wall Street Journal…on Democratic Rep. Dean Phillips’ effort to take on Joe Biden…

“For months no serious Democrat had the temerity to take on Mr. Biden, possibly for fear of weakening him. Yet the party’s voters aren’t exactly satisfied: One national poll this month had Mr. Biden at 58%, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 15%, and Marianne Williamson 7%.  Nearly a quarter of Democrats went for two gadflies, and RFK Jr. has since bolted to run as an independent. If this isn’t a plea for better options, what is?

“Mr. Phillips is largely unknown, but he isn’t a flake like RFK Jr.  He has an MBA from the University of Minnesota, as well as business experience. He won his House seat in 2018, flipping a suburban Minneapolis district that was once a Republican stronghold.

“His views are mostly center-left, and Mr. Phillips backed Mr. Biden’s position 100% of the time, according to a congressional vote tracker for 2021-22.  In his announcement (last) Friday, he seemed willing to disagree with Mr. Biden from the right on the border crisis, and from the left on defense spending, though then he declared himself “not in opposition to President Biden, who has my affection and my gratitude.”  Let the mud-slinging begin.

“Mr. Phillips isn’t likely to win the nomination, but his candidacy will be a proxy for the Democratic desire for more choices. The White House is worried enough that the Democratic Party has tweaked its nominating schedule to give Mr. Biden an edge.  Next year’s first official primary is scheduled to be in South Carolina.  Because New Hampshire hasn’t complied with its demotion, Mr. Biden’s campaign said this week he won’t appear on the ballot there.

“If Mr. Phillips can build momentum in the Granite State, perhaps there’s still a chance of making the Democratic primary interesting in a way that could help the party in November 2024.  Or if not, at least some Democrat had the guts to try, since many of them are equally worried about Mr. Biden’s health, polling and prospects against Mr. Trump, even if Mr. Phillips is the only one who will say so.”

--Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.), who has held up hundreds of military promotions for months, moved Tuesday to force a vote to confirm the U.S. Marine Corps’ second-in-command after its top officer suffered a heart attack.

Lt. Gen. Christopher Mahoney was nominated by the White House in July but had yet to be confirmed by the Senate along with hundreds (378 to be exact) of other senior officers’ promotions who remain frozen by Tuberville in a political battle over the Pentagon’s abortion policy.

Tuberville took the action after Marine Corps Commandant Gen. Eric Smith collapsed while jogging in Washington about a block from the Marine Barracks.

So then Wednesday night, Senate Republicans took to the floor to denounce Tuberville’s military freeze, as several, including Sens. Dan Sullivan (Alaska), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Todd Young (Indiana) and Linsey Graham (S.C.) confronted Tuberville, imploring him to lift his hold for the sake of national security and proposing votes on individual officers whose promotions have been delayed.  Tuberville rebuffed them one by one, blocking each proposed nominee as his colleagues’ frustration rose further.

“Xi Jinping is loving this. So is Putin,” Sullivan, a colonel in the Marine Corps Reserve, said at one point.  “How dumb can we be, man?”

Tuberville said he wasn’t budging.

The Senate then confirmed three more senior military officers in its latest effort to bypass him.  Adm. Lisa Franchetti will become the first woman to lead the Navy and join the Joint Chiefs of Staff; Gen. David Allvin, nominated to lead the Air Force; and the aforementioned Lt. Gen. Christopher Mahoney, who will be promoted to four-star general, become the Marine Corps’ No. 2 officer and step in as a caretaker commandant in the absence of Gen. Eric Smith.

--Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) easily survived a vote Wednesday to expel him from the House as most Republicans and 31 Democrats opted to withhold punishment while both his criminal trial and a House Ethics Committee investigation proceed, which when you really think about it makes sense.  The Ethics Committee releases at least some of its findings Nov. 17.

The effort to boot Santos out now was led by his fellow New York Republicans, who are anxious to distance themselves from a colleague infamous for fabricating his life story and accused of stealing from donors, lying to Congress and receiving unemployment benefits he did not deserve.

But the resolution required two-thirds vote, and supporters could not even gain a simple majority, the final vote being 179 for expulsion, 213 against.

It didn’t help that House Speaker Johnson said Santos should get his day in court.

The House has only expelled five members in its history – three of those during the Civil War and the other two after their convictions on public corruption charges.

Here’s hoping Santos is expelled after the Ethics Committee findings.

--Federal prosecutors and the FBI are conducting a broad public corruption investigation into whether New York City Mayor Eric Adams’ 2021 election campaign conspired with the Turkish government to receive illegal foreign donations, according to a search warrant obtained by the New York Times.

The investigation exploded in public view when on Thursday, federal agents conducted an early-morning raid at the Brooklyn home of the mayor’s chief fund-raiser, Brianna Suggs.

As yet there is no indication the mayor himself is a target of the investigation.

--The warnings have grown louder and more urgent as 2024 approaches: The rapid advance of artificial intelligence tools threaten to amplify misinformation in next year’s presidential election at a scale never seen before.

Most adults in the U.S. feel the same way, according to a new poll from the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research and the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy.

The poll found that nearly 6 in 10 adults (58%) think AI tools will increase the spread of false and misleading information during next year’s elections.

--Sec. of State Blinken’s Senate Appropriations Committee testimony was repeatedly disrupted by pro-Palestinian protesters calling for an immediate ceasefire.

As Blinken was midway through remarks on the Russia-Ukraine war, protesters drowned out his remarks with chants of “From Palestine to Mexico, all the walls have got to go.”

“You have blood on your hands, murderer,” a demonstrator could be heard shouting.

--A Nevada man has been jailed on charges he threatened Sen. Jacky Rosen with repeated antisemitic phone messages after the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel.

John Anthony Miller, 43, was arrested Oct. 26 and charged with threatening a federal official, with the records unsealed Monday.

Miller allegedly called Rosen’s office numerous times from Oct. 11 to 19 and left threatening messages filled with profanity and derogatory names, according to court records.

One of the messages Oct. 17 said “we’re gonna finish what Hitler started,” according to court records.  An Oct. 19 message said Rosen would burn in hell for her crimes.

FBI Director Christopher Wray said the threats against the Jewish community have reached historic levels because they are targeted by a variety of terror groups. While representing 2.4% of the population, Jews are targeted by 60% of religious based hate crimes, he said.

“I will say this is a threat that is reaching in some ways historic levels in part because as you know all too well the Jewish community is targeted by terrorists across the spectrum,” Wray said.

Campus police at Cornell University, in Ithaca, N.Y., were guarding the university’s Center for Jewish Living on Sunday after online posts threatened violence against Jewish students.  One student was then arrested.

The threats were so vile, for good reason the students are scared and concerned for their safety.

--The number of people dead and missing due to Hurricane Otis has risen to over 100 (46 dead, 58 missing…including 11 Americans), authorities in the Mexican state of Guerrero said on Monday.  Otis battered Acapulco with winds of 165 mph last Wednesday, flooding the city, tearing roofs from homes, hotels and other businesses, submerging vehicles, and severing communications as well as road and air connections.  Looting broke out as the city’s population of 900,000 became desperate for food and water.

[Many doubt the government’s death toll…saying it is much higher.]

The cost of the damage from Otis could climb as high as $15 billion, according to estimates, and Mexico has sent some 17,000 members of the armed forces to keep order and help distribute tons of food and supplies.

There are also fears of assault in the streets.  People waiting in aid lines are afraid they’ll get robbed.

Mexico has a presidential election in less than seven months and President Lopez Obrador reiterated his claim that critics were attacking his response to Otis and inflating its impact for electoral reasons.  His fiery denunciations sparked criticism that the president was downplaying the gravity of the disaster.

--Air quality in Delhi, India, hit severe levels on Friday and a thick toxic smog cloaked the city, marking the beginning of a pollution season that has become an annual catastrophe for India’s capital.

Schools were shut and non-essential construction was banned around Delhi as the air quality index in the city almost hit 500 – the highest the measurement will go and 100 times the limit deemed to be healthy by the World Health Organization.

The dire situation was blamed in part on farmers burning their fields during the crop planting season.

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Pray for the men and women of our armed forces…and all the fallen.

Pray for Ukraine, Israel and the innocents of Gaza.

God bless America.

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Gold $1999
Oil $80.97

Regular Gas: $3.43; Diesel: $4.42 [$3.77 / $5.30 yr. ago]

Returns for the week 10/30-11/3

Dow Jones  +5.1%  [34061]
S&P 500  +5.9%  [4358]
S&P MidCap  +6.5%
Russell 2000  +7.6%
Nasdaq  +6.6%  [13478]

Returns for the period 1/1/23-11/3/23

Dow Jones  +2.8%
S&P 500  +13.5%
S&P MidCap  +2.0%
Russell 2000  -0.03%
Nasdaq  +28.8%

Bulls 42.9
Bears 25.7

Hang in there.

Brian Trumbore

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