Week in Review

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Week in Review

03/02/2024

For the week 2/26-3/1

[Posted 4:30 PM ET, Friday]

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Edition 1,298

Navalny Is Buried....

Going back to last weekend...Russian authorities transferred the body of Alexei Navalny to his mother on Saturday, ending the battle for custody of his remains.  It was unclear whether he would receive a public funeral.

Kira Yarmysh, Navalny’s spokeswoman, said in a statement posted on social media: “The funeral is yet to come. We don’t know whether the authorities will interfere with carrying it out in the way the family wants and as Alexsei deserves.”

Navalny’s mother, Lyudmila Navalnaya, on Saturday was still in the northern city of Salekhard, near the Arctic prison where Navalny was reported to have died on Feb. 16.

That day, prior to news of the body being apparently released, Navalny’s widow, Yulia, released a six-minute YouTube video denouncing Vladimir Putin for maligning the Christian values he professes as he “mocks Alexei’s mother and forces her to agree to a secret funeral.”

“We already knew that Putin’s faith was fake.  But now we see it more clearly than ever before,” said Navalnaya, dressed in black.  “No true Christian could ever do what Putin is now doing with Alexei’s body.”

Navalnaya said her husband had been a devout Christian, who attended church and had fasted for Lent even while in prison.  She said his political activism had been inspired by Christian values.

We then learned on Wednesday that Navalny would be buried at a cemetery in Moscow on Friday.  On Tuesday, the opposition leader’s spokeswoman said that his team was struggling to find a funeral home – with some refusing to hold the service when they found out who it was for.  The Team later said they had been refused everywhere when it came to a hall to hold a non-religious farewell ceremony too.

Navalny’s foundation stirred things up this week on a different subject, claiming Navalny’s death followed a proposal to trade him and two unnamed American citizens (rumored to be Evan Gershkovich and Paul Whelan).  Navalny spokeswoman Maria Pevchikh said Navalny was killed after Vladimir Putin became aware of the potential swap and acted to prevent it.

Pevchikh said the foundation had been involved in efforts to win Navalny’s freedom but didn’t provide evidence to back her assertions in her seven-minute statement.

Pevchikh said Putin couldn’t “tolerate Navalny being free.”

Yulia Navalnaya told European lawmakers in Strasbourg: “Putin killed my husband. On his orders, Alexei was tortured for three years. He was starved in a tiny stone cell, cut off from the outside world and denied visits, phone calls and then even letters,” she said.

Speaking in English, her voice sometimes faltering, she described Putin as a “bloody monster” and told lawmakers it was not possible to negotiate with him.  “You cannot hurt Putin with another resolution or another set of sanctions that is no different from the previous ones,” she said.

“My husband will never see what a beautiful Russia of the future will look like, but we must see it.  I will do my best to make his dream come true. The evil will fall, and the beautiful future will come,” she concluded before receiving a standing ovation.

The funeral was then held today at Moscow’s Church of the Icon of the Mother of God.  There were fears it would dissolve into chaos “if the police will arrest those coming to say goodbye,” Yulia Navalnaya had said.

But thousands of people, in a stirring show of defiance, gathered under a heavy police presence to pay their respects. 

Loud chants of “Navalny” rang out as his coffin arrived at the church.  Shouts of “Alexei” were heard (I was watching the proceedings primarily on BBC News).  And there were anti-Putin chants as well as clapping when the hearse arrived.  “Russia without Putin,” “Russia will be free,” even “Putin murderer!” – slogans that have previously landed many Russians in jail.

Anatoly Navalny and Lyudmila Navalnaya, Alexei’s parents, were seen walking to the church.  Later, Lyudmila was approached by mourners and supporters who hugged her and said “thank you for your son” as she left with her husband. The crowd shouted, “We won’t forget you,” as the hearse left for the cemetery.

The thousands of mourners then proceeded to walk the mile-and-a-half between the church and Borisovskoye cemetery, on the other side of the Moskva River.  It was an extraordinary scene.  Thousands taking extreme risks, facial recognition and video cameras all over the place.  No doubt hundreds, if not thousands, will be visited at some point in the near future by Putin’s goons, though it is important to note, while there are reports that 40 or so people were arrested for joining Navalny memorial events, the heavily armed riot police did not do anything obvious at the church or cemetery. The feared widespread crackdown did not materialize, at least today.

The ambassadors from the United States and Britain were among the crowd, as well as other Western diplomats.

I didn’t hear it, but Frank Sinatra’s “My Way” was played as Navalny’s coffin was lowered into the ground.  A sign was hung outside the cemetery, reading: “Putin killed him but didn’t break him.”

Yulia, for obvious security reasons unable to attend, along with her daughter and Alexei’s brother (who is on Moscow’s ‘wanted list’), posted a goodbye message to her husband on X, saying “thank you for 26 years of absolute happiness.  Yes, even over the last three years of happiness.  For love, for always supporting me, for making me laugh even from prison, for the fact that you always thought about me,” she wrote.

“I don’t know how to live without you, but I will try to make you up there happy for me and proud of me. I don’t know if I can handle it or not, but I will try.”

The sad truth in Russia, however, is that after today’s large crowds, there is no one else in the country who can attract the popular support Alexei Navalny was able to.  Yulia won’t be able to do it from overseas, and she can’t return.

But that can’t stop us from saying, “Long Live Navalny!” and to the cowards in Congress, particularly among some House Republicans, “Support Ukraine!”

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The Supreme Court agreed Wednesday to decide whether Donald Trump may claim immunity in special counsel Jack Smith’s election subversion (Jan. 6) case, adding another big appeal from the former president to its docket, and delaying his federal trial to, in all likelihood, beyond the election, which is outrageous. Americans deserve a verdict prior to November.

The court will decide this question: “Whether and if so to what extent does a former president enjoy presidential immunity from criminal prosecution for conduct alleged to involve official acts during his tenure in office,” according to the court’s brief order.

The court agreed to ‘expedite’ the case and hear arguments the week of April 22, but this means it is highly likely it would not issue a ruling until end of June, and then District Court Judge Tanya Chutkan (who is presiding over the DC criminal case), who would normally give both sides months for preparation, could issue a trial date, say, end of August/early September, but that would be smack in the middle of the stretch run of a presidential election, so she won’t do that, and it then becomes an issue for January 2025, at which point if Trump wins, his new Justice Department dismisses the case.

I thought the Supreme Court would issue a 9-0 ruling on the other big case, keeping Trump on the ballot in those states attempting to ban him, and then issue a 9-0, 8-1 ruling against Trump’s immunity claim, or, better yet, just allow the district court’s 3-0 ruling to stand, saying the former president is not immune.

Alas, as the Wall Street Journal editorial board offered, it seems clear “several Justices...want to clean up the appellate court’s legal overreach and consider whether Mr. Trump is immune from prosecution for acts that involve his official duties.”

The Justice Department waited far too long to bring the case.

Meanwhile, an Illinois judge on Wednesday barred former President Trump from appearing on the state’s Republican primary ballot over his role in the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the Capitol.

Illinois is the third state to remove Trump from primary ballots citing the Fourteenth’s Amendment’s so-called “insurrection clause,” joining Colorado and Maine.

The decision by Cook County Circuit Judge Tracie Porter, a Democrat, overruled the bipartisan Illinois State Board of Elections, which dismissed a challenge to Trump’s candidacy last month after determining that it didn’t have the authority to rule on whether the GOP front-runner’s role in the riot violated the Constitution.

But the Colorado (and Maine) rulings are pending before the U.S. Supreme Court.

[Donald Trump was in Florida today, his lawyers asking for U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon to push back the date on his criminal trial on charges of mishandling classified documents until the thick of the presidential campaign, namely August. The current start date is May 20.  Cannon is a Trump appointee.  Special Counsel Jack Smith has proposed July 8.]

Finally, FBI Director Christopher Wray, Thursday, at an event hosted by the Intelligence and National Security Alliance.

“In the U.S., as everyone here knows, (we have) confronted foreign malign influence threats in the past. This election cycle, the U.S. will face more adversaries moving at a faster pace and enabled by new technology,” said Wray.  “Advances in generative AI, for instance, are lowering the barrier to entry, making it easier for both more and less sophisticated foreign adversaries to engage in malign influence, while making foreign influence efforts – efforts by players both old and new – more realistic, and more difficult to detect.”  [Defense One]

It's more important than ever for good people to continue to speak the truth.

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This Week in Ukraine....

--Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an address in Kyiv Saturday, that his country will prevail, as it marked two years since Russia’s full-scale invasion.

“None of us will allow our Ukraine to end,” Zelensky said, joined by Western leaders in a show of solidarity.

The anniversary came as Ukraine suffered a range of setbacks in its efforts to expel Russia from its territory.

Zelensky said in his speech that while any normal person would want the war to end, it could only be on Ukraine’s terms.

“That’s why, to the words ‘end of the war,’ we always add ‘on our terms.’  That’s why the word ‘peace’ always goes with ‘fair.’

“We are fighting for it.  For 730 days of our lives already. And we will win on the best day of our life.”

Joining him in Kyiv were the leaders of Italy, Belgium and Canada, as well as the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen.

But no senior U.S. representatives were present.

Zelensky did meet a group of Democratic senators, led by Majority Leader Chuck Schumer on Friday, which he said was a sign Washington backed Ukraine.

Von der Leyen praised the Ukrainian troops who defended the country in the early days of the invasion and confounded expectations about their ability to withhold Russia’s invasion force.

“You managed to stop Russia’s attack to the heart of Ukraine.  You saved your country, you saved all of Europe,” she said.

“Ukraine needs more supplies from the United States to hold the line against Russia’s relentless attacks, which are enabled by arms and ammunition from Iran and North Korea,” President Joe Biden said in a statement.  “That’s why the House of Representatives must pass the bipartisan national security supplemental bill, before it’s too late,” he pleaded.

“History is watching,” the president said.  “Now is the time to prove that the United States stands up for freedom and bows down to no one,” he added.

Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said: “Today’s grim milestone should spur us all to decide what kind of future we want for our children and grandchildren: an open, secure, and prosperous world of rules and rights, or the violent and lawless world of aggression and chaos that Putin seeks. We support Ukraine’s fight for freedom, both because it is the right thing to do and because doing so is central to America’s continued security,” he said.

--Sunday, at a press conference, Zelensky said 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed during the last two years, disclosing the first official figure for military losses in many months.  Zelensky said he could not disclose figures for the number of wounded, saying that would help Russian military planning.

The Ukrainian leader also said that “tens of thousands of civilians” had been killed in occupied areas of Ukraine but said that no exact figures would be available until the war was over.

Zelensky said he was hoping a summit of world leaders will take place in the next few months in Switzerland and that the blueprint for peace would be presented to Russia.

“I hope it will take place this spring. We must not lose this diplomatic initiative,” he told reporters.

At the same time, Zelensky also said Russia is preparing a new offensive against Ukraine in late May or summer, but Kyiv has a clear battlefield plan of its own.

“We will prepare for their assault. Their assault that began on October 8th has not brought any results, I believe. We, for our part, will prepare our plan and follow it,” Zelensky said.

He has no plan without ammunition.  His super drone force can only take him so far, but I’m guessing that’s what he’s referring to, as there has been a distinct ramp-up, urgency, to develop enough drones to overwhelm Russia’s ground troops.  Ukrainian ingenuity is critical.

--Last Friday night, Russian drones attacked Ukraine’s Black Sea port of Odesa for a second night running, hitting a residential building, killing one.  In all, six people died and 12 were injured in various Ukrainian regions over 24 hours.  Ukrainian air defenses shot down 23 of 31 Russian-launched drones over five regions, the air force said.

“Another difficult night for Ukrainians.  The enemy launched three dozen Shaheds and six missiles at peaceful settlements of the country,” Oleksey Kuleba, deputy head of Zelensky’s presidential office, said in a post on Telegram.

--Ukraine said it has downed a Russian A-50 military spy plane – the second such claim in just over a month.

The plane was hit between the Russian cities of Rostov-on-Don and Krasnodar, Ukrainian military sources said, over 124 miles from the front line.

Emergency services reportedly found plane fragments and put out a raging fire.

The head of Ukraine’s Air Force Mykola Olshchuk thanked his service and military intelligence for helping to bring down the plane – a long-range radar detection aircraft – on Friday and noted the incident coincided with a key Russian military holiday.

“Congratulations to the occupiers on the Defender of the Fatherland Day,” he said on Telegram.

Video shared online shows the moment the plane appears to be shot down in the air, as well as the aftermath on the ground.

Ukraine claimed to have shot down another A-50 on January 14.  At the time, I wrote that the UK’s ministry of defense said Russia probably had six operational A-50s in service.

The plane detects air defenses and coordinates targets for Russian jets.  It can cost hundreds of millions of dollars to build.

--Russia said on Sunday that its forces had taken more advantageous positions near Avdiivka and Donetsk after President Putin ordered the military to push further into Ukraine.

Russia’s defense ministry said its troops had pushed back Ukrainian forces near Klishchiivka, Dyleyevka and Kurdiumivka in the Donetsk region.

The ministry said Russian troops had repelled seven Ukrainian counterattacks in the area, destroying 77 drones, a report that wasn’t verified by news agencies.

--Wednesday Ukraine’s military says it shot down another Russian jet, which would be its 10th in 10 days.  “Another Russian Su-34 fighter-bomber was destroyed by Ukrainian warriors in the eastern direction,” the defense ministry claimed on social media.

But, as the Wall Street Journal reported, Ukraine is running low on critical artillery systems, with troops and mechanics “cannibalizing” damaged howitzers for spare parts.

--French President Macron is once again pushing the boundaries of how far Europe is willing to go in supporting Ukraine, riling up a few members in the process.

At the recently completed summit of European leaders, Macron, who has a history of controversial off-the-cuff remarks, was asked whether leaders had discussed the possibility of sending troops to Ukraine, to which he replied: “Everything was discussed this evening, in a very free and direct manner.  There is no consensus today to officially send, take responsibility for and endorse ground troops. But in terms of options nothing should be ruled out.” 

Germany, Poland and the Czech Republic quickly said they didn’t have any plans to send troops after Macron spoke, and NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg told the press “There are no plans for NATO combat troops on the ground in Ukraine.”

Then on Thursday, during his annual speech to the nation, Vladimir Putin took advantage of Macron’s comments to say that Western countries that are helping Ukraine strike Russian territory and have discussed the possibility of sending troops from NATO countries to Ukraine, “must, in the end, understand” that “all this truly threatens a conflict with the use of nuclear weapons, and therefore the destruction of civilization.”

“We also have weapons that can strike targets on their territory,” Putin said.  “Do they understand this?”

“We remember the fate of those who once sent their contingents to the territory of our country,” Putin said, an apparent reference to the invasions of Hitler and Napoleon.  “But now the consequences for potential interventionists will be much more tragic.”

Putin’s state-of-the-nation speech lasted over two hours, and comes ahead of the elections slated for March 15-17, in which Vlad is running for another six-year term.

--Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, said that the EU should use windfall profits from Russian central-bank assets in Western accounts to procure weapons for Ukraine. It was the first time the EU has linked the use of frozen Russian assets to arm Ukraine.  More than $200bn euro ($216bn) of Russian assets are frozen in the bloc.

--Russia claimed on Thursday that its forces had re-entered the village of Robotyne, which Ukraine took from the occupiers in August 2023.

Robotyne lies between Avdiivka and Kherson, and southeast of Zaporizhzhia, on the frontline in Zaporizhzhia oblast.

Ukrainian forces have pushed back Russian troops from the village of Orlivka, west of Avdiivka, but the situation on the eastern front remains difficult, Ukrainian army chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said Thursday as well.

--Ukraine’s foreign ministry on Wednesday cautioned against any meddling from Russia in Moldova’s neighboring breakaway region of Transnistria, whose separatist leaders have supposedly appealed to Moscow for “protection” – a ploy that has previously been instigated by Russia to justify invading other countries.

In February 2022, Russia-backed militants in Ukraine also asked for Moscow’s “protection.”

--Editorial / The Economist

“Russia’s ever-deepening belligerence, Ukraine’s deteriorating position and Mr. Trump’s possible return to the White House have brought Europe to its most dangerous juncture in decades. The question is not just whether America will abandon Ukraine, but whether it might abandon Europe. For Europe to fill the space left by America’s absence would require much more than increased defense spending. It would have to revitalize its arms industry, design a new nuclear umbrella and come up with a new command structure.

“[At the recent Munich Security Conference] the mood was fearful but determined rather than panicked. American and European officials remain hopeful that more American munitions will eventually get to Ukraine, but they are also making contingencies.  On February 17th Petr Pavel, the Czech president, said his country had ‘found’ 800,000 shells that could be shipped within weeks.  In an interview with The Economist Boris Pistorius, Germany’s defense minister, insisted that European arms production was increasing ‘as fast as possible’ and said he was ‘very optimistic’ that Europe could plug any gaps left by America.

“Not everyone is so sanguine.  If American aid were to evaporate quickly, Ukraine would probably lose, an American official tells The Economist. Mr. Pistorius is correct that European arms production is rising fast; the continent should be able to produce shells at an annual rate of 1m-2m late this year, potentially outstripping America.  But that may come too late for Ukraine, which needs some 1.5m per year according to Rheinmetall, a European arms manufacturer.  A sense of wartime urgency is still lacking.  European shell-makers export 40% of their production to non-EU countries other than Ukraine; when the European Commission proposed that Ukraine should be prioritized by law, member states refused.  The continent’s arms firms complain that their order books remain too thin to warrant big investments in production lines.

“A Ukrainian defeat would inflict a psychological blow on the West while emboldening Mr. Putin.  That does not mean he could take advantage right away.  ‘There is no immediate threat to NATO,’ says Admiral Rob Bauer, the head of NATO’s international military committee.  Allies disagree over how long Russia would need to rebuild its forces to a pre-war standard, he says, and the timing depends in part on Western sanctions, but three to seven years is the range ‘a lot of people talk about.’  The direction of travel is clear.  ‘We can expect that within the next decade, NATO will face a Soviet-style mass army,’ warned Estonia’s annual intelligence report, published on February 13th.  The threat is not just a Russian invasion, but attacks and provocations which might test the limits of Article 5, NATO’s mutual-defense clause.  ‘It cannot be ruled out that within a three- to five-year period, Russia will test Article 5 and NATO’s solidarity,’ Denmark’s defense minister recently warned.  But the concern is less the timing than the prospect of confronting Russia alone....

“Perhaps the hardest capability for Europe to replace is the one everyone hopes will never be needed.  America is committed to using its nuclear weapons to defend European allies... Yet an American president who declined to risk American troops to defend a European ally would hardly be likely to risk American cities in a nuclear exchange.”

--Niall Ferguson / New York Post

“When war in Ukraine began, two years ago, I thought the best analogy might be with the Korean War.

“You have to frame what we’re going through as the Cold War II, and Ukraine was the first hot war of the Second Cold War.

“And just the same way as in 1950, so in 2022, the outbreak of the hot war made many people understand better the world that they were in.

“It’s obvious that Russia would not have launched that offensive without Xi Jinping’s approval beforehand.

“And without Chinese support Russia would not be able to sustain the war, for massive Chinese exports of microprocessors and other things are what keep the Russian war machine going.

“Will the Ukraine invasion end as the Korean War did?

“Ukraine faces a catastrophic shortage of artillery and ammunition as the country’s war against Russia enters its third year – and U.S. lawmakers playing political games over military aid are holding the smoking gun.

“You had a year of extraordinarily kinetic war, and then two years of stalemate that left a country divided with an extremely dangerous border, and it’s still there as we speak.

“I’ve always felt that was a plausible outcome for Ukraine. It’s not by any means the worst-case scenario.

“After all, South Korea ended up being a very prosperous country, despite everything.  And Ukraine might manage that.  But it’s going to be very hard for Ukraine to win this war now.

“This is a war of attrition where President Volodymyr Zelensky needs men as well as shells, because the Russians have lots of them.  And that was always one of the asymmetries in this conflict....

“Europeans understand that they now have to face the possibility of being on their own.  All that fine talk of ‘strategic autonomy’ which we used to hear from France’s President Macron will have to become a reality very swiftly.  The alternative, they now realize, is too dire to contemplate.

“Because if Ukraine loses, after all the fine rhetoric of 2022, that puts Russia in an extremely threatening position for the whole of Europe.

“If American aid to Ukraine does not resume, it wouldn’t be the first time that the United States said, ‘We’ll back you and your independence and your democracy for as long as it takes,’ and then that turned out to be for as long as we felt like it – ask the South Vietnamese.

“The United States has not done terribly well since the late 1960s in honoring this kind of commitment.  Think of Afghanistan.

“The Biden administration’s track record is much worse than you think if all you read is The New York Times, because it failed utterly to deter the Taliban from very quickly restoring their hideous barbaric regime in 2021.

“It failed to deter Putin from escalating his invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

“And it failed to deter Iran from unleashing its proxies against Israel in 2023.

“My question for 2024 is who will they fail to deter this year?

“Two years ago, all the experts on Russia said Putin was not going to launch a full-blown invasion of Ukraine. I was one of the few people who said the war was coming.  I have a similar feeling today.

“The experts say China is not ready to make a move on Taiwan until 2027.  Bill Burns, the director of Central Intelligence, said this a couple of times last year.

“I just wonder about that, because Xi says – most recently in his New Year address – that unification of Taiwan with the mainland is still his priority.

“I think the mistake many experts make is assuming that action means full-blown invasion.

“That’s a really difficult thing to cross the Taiwan Strait, and I don’t think the People’s Liberation Army is remotely ready to do it.  But they don’t need to.

“They just need to blockade Taiwan, and it wouldn’t be a total surprise to me if some time this year China imposed some kind of economic blockade.  If I were advising Xi Jinping, I would say, ‘Do it, you will never have a better opportunity.’....

“I hope I’m wrong about this.  I hope Bill Burns is right, and we don’t have to worry about this until 2027.

“But let’s put it this way: Our intelligence experts have been wrong in the past, and so I wouldn’t be entirely surprised if a Taiwan crisis happened this year.”

[I’ve written that I thought years ago China would just knock out Taiwan’s airfields and sue for peace. There is no way Taiwan would then start exchanging missiles across the Strait with great loss of life.  It could be over quickly.  I stick to that opinion, all these years later.]

More from Niall Ferguson:

“Ukrainians understand what losing is like because they saw the bodies in the streets of Bucha.  Israelis know what losing is like because they know that Oct. 7 was a dress rehearsal for Holocaust II.

“But we don’t really know what losing would mean.  And young Americans absolutely have no concept.

“In fact, young Americans are so complacent about freedom that they’re basically against it now, which is a bizarre turn of events....

“They don’t realize that ceasing to be number one, losing the Pax Americana, has massive costs.  These are the things people don’t spend enough time thinking about because they just complacently assume that all of this stuff is going on over there in Ukraine and Israel and Taiwan, but somehow we’ll be fine.

“But the reality is we would not be fine, any more than we would have been fine if the Soviets had won the First Cold War.”

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Israel and Hamas....

--Israeli officials headed to Qatar on Monday, where the ruling emir separately met the chief of Hamas, as the two sides sought to close in on a ceasefire-and-hostage deal.  The so-called “proximity talks” – meeting mediators separately while in the same city – suggested negotiations were further along than at any time since the big push began at the start of February, when Israel rejected a Hamas counteroffer for a four-and-a-half-month truce.

In public, however, both sides took positions far apart on the ultimate aims of a truce, while blaming each other for holding up the talks.

Israel says it will agree only to a temporary pause in fighting to secure the release of the hostages.  Hamas says it will not free them without an agreement that leads to a permanent end to the war.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel was ready for a deal, but it was up to Hamas to drop demands he described as “outlandish” and “from another planet,” such as the Hamas demand Israel call off the offensive and withdraw its forces under any deal. Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh accused Israel of stalling while Gazans die under siege.

Another demand from Netanyahu is that all “heavy” prisoners released in a ceasefire and hostage deal be sent directly to Qatar upon their release from Israeli jails, according to Israeli media on Sunday.  The term “heavy” prisoner refers to the high-profile nature of the crime for which said inmate was imprisoned, with Palestinians imprisoned for murdering Israelis in terror attacks considered “heavier” than inmates with no blood on their hands.

President Biden said Monday that he hoped to have a ceasefire “by next Monday... My national security adviser tells me that we’re close.”

A spokesman for the State Department said earlier that “progress” had been made in negotiations to release the Israeli hostages in the last several days, but that it remained unclear whether Hamas would accept the latest proposed deal.

“We’ve had progress with the conversations we’ve had between Egypt, Israel, the United States and Qatar,” said spokesman Matthew Miller.

--Meanwhile, Netanyahu insisted that the assault on Rafah was still planned, and Israel had a plan to evacuate civilians from harm’s way.  “Well, we’ll go in.  We make our own decisions, obviously, but we’ll go in based on the idea of having also the evacuation of the civilians.”

--Last Friday, Netanyahu released his most detailed proposal yet for a postwar Gaza, pledging to retain indefinite military control over the enclave, while ceding the administration of civilian life to Gazans without links to Hamas.

Netanyahu’s ideas describe a demilitarized Gaza that would face a continued heavy Israeli security presence after combat operations end, with a buffer zone off limits to Palestinians along Gaza’s perimeter and Israeli control of the Egypt-Gaza border that would seek to seal off the strip in the south.

The plan, if realized, would make it virtually impossible to establish a Palestinian state including Gaza and the West Bank, at least in the short term, which is not what the United States and many of Israel’s allies in the West want to hear.  The U.S. and Europe are pushing for Palestinian sovereignty after the war ends.

Serge Schmemann / New York Times

“Netanyahu’s plan was in many ways antithetical to what the Biden administration has been trying to achieve. Among other things, it called for Israeli ‘operational freedom of action in the entire Gaza Strip without a time limit,’ while Washington has been trying to avoid a push into the city of Rafah, packed with displaced Gazans, and it envisioned a buffer zone that would further reduce the territory of the Gaza Strip, already one of the most crowded places on earth.  And it made no mention of the Palestinian Authority in any future administration of Gaza, as Washington envisions....

“Netanyahu has a long history of rebuffing American peace initiatives while claiming to support them, but in the current crisis he has tried Biden’s patience to the limit.  If Israelis come to believe that he is deliberately delaying the release of Israeli hostages, of whom 100 are believed to be still alive, he would risk antagonizing not only a large portion of the public, but also the members of his war cabinet who have been working with the Americans.”

--Also last Friday (another item revealed after I went to post last week), Secretary of State Antony Blinken said at a news conference in Buenos Aires (Blinken in town for meetings with new Argentinian President Javier Milei and his foreign minister), that the U.S. now considers new Israeli settlements in Palestinian territories to be “inconsistent with international law,” marking a reversal of a policy set under the Trump administration and a return to a decades-long U.S. position on the contentious subject.

Last week, Israel’s finance minister, far-right leader Bezalel Smotrich, announced that thousands of new residences would be added to settlements.

“It’s been longstanding U.S. policy under Republican and Democratic administration alike that new settlements are counterproductive to reaching enduring peace,” he said.  “They’re inconsistent with international law.  Our administration maintains firm opposition to settlement expansion. And in our judgment, this only weakens – it doesn’t strengthen – Israel’s security.”

[About 500,000 Israelis now live in the occupied West Bank and more than 200,000 in East Jerusalem.]

--Muhammad Shtayyeh, the Palestinian Authority’s prime minister, submitted the resignation of his government to President Mahmoud Abbas. Shtayyeh said he made the decision because of “developments related to the aggression” against Gaza and the escalation of violence in the West Bank and Jerusalem.  He called for new “political arrangements” that would consider “the emerging reality” in the strip.  Abbas has been under international pressure to beef up the PA, which America wants to help govern Gaza after the war.

--Wednesday, Hamas chief Haniyeh, in a televised statement, called on residents of the West Bank and Jerusalem to barricade themselves at the al-Aqsa Mosque at the beginning of Ramadan.  Haniyeh also called for “a broad and international movement to break the siege on al-Aqsa Mosque.”

Haniyeh also addressed the possibility of the IDF’s invasion of Rafah and expressed hope that international efforts would restrain Israel’s ambitions of an invasion.

“The occupation and its partner, the United States, will not be able to achieve through political machinations what they did not achieve in combat.  The world, especially Arab states, must restrain the enemy and refuse to let them invade the city of Rafah.”

--And then Thursday, we had the horrific scenes from Gaza, where at least 104 people were killed and hundreds injured (reportedly over 700) while waiting for food, Palestinian officials say.

The chaotic incident occurred as hungry Palestinian civilians were gathering around food aid trucks.  Civilians had swarmed around the newly arrived trucks, when Israeli tanks and drones started shooting at the people in western Gaza City, Gazan health authorities calling it a “massacre.”

An Israeli official told CNN IDF troops did use live fire on people surrounding aid tracks as “the crowd approached the forces in a manner that posed a threat to the troops, who responded to the threat with live fire.”

The Israeli military said that Gazans had surrounded aid trucks and “looted the supplies.” As a result, dozens were “killed and injured from pushing, trampling and being run over by the trucks.”  It did not directly address the Palestinian claims of machine gun fire and said it was investigating.

President Biden acknowledged the shooting was likely to complicate negotiations on a cease-fire.

The death toll in Gaza passed 30,000 people since the war began on Oct. 7, the Gazan health ministry said, which mixes civilians and militants in its figures.

Biden Friday afternoon announced the U.S. military would airdrop food and supplies into Gaza.

Hamas claimed today that seven hostages had been killed during Israeli airstrikes, naming three of them.  But in the past, as part of its cruelty, Hamas has announced some hostages were dead that were later released.

---

Wall Street and the Economy

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said Wednesday that while inflation pressures have ebbed to a notable degree, he’s not yet ready to say the central bank has done all it needs to do to get inflation back to the Fed’s 2% target.

“While the economy has come a long way toward achieving better balance and reaching our 2% inflation goal, we are not there yet,” Williams said, adding, “I am committed to fully restoring price stability in the context of a strong economy and labor market.”

Williams, at a speech on Long Island Wednesday, did not offer any firm guidance on what’s next for the central bank’s monetary policy stance, explaining that “as we navigate the remainder of this journey, I will be focused on the data, the economic outlook, and the risks, in evaluating the appropriate path for monetary policy that best achieves our goals.”

The week before, Williams had said in an interview that it was possible the Fed could cut its benchmark rate later this year.

Thursday, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, addressing a conference in Hotlanta, said if economic data continue to show a slowdown in inflation, it may be appropriate for the Fed’s Open Market Committee, of which he is a voting member this year, to begin lowering interest rates in the summer.

Bostic said there are likely to be bumps in the road on the way down to the 2% inflation goal, some of which have been seen recently with January’s stronger-than-expected inflation data.

Bostic previously forecast the start of a looser policy at the end of the year.

We then had the Fed’s preferred inflation barometer, the personal consumption expenditures index for January on Thursday, and the PCE came in as expected, up 0.3, 2.4% year-over-year, while core, ex-food and energy, was also as expected, 0.4%, 2.8% Y/Y, and down from December’s 2.9%.  No surprises allowed Treasuries to rally some, and stocks extended their gains.

As part of this report, personal income for the month was a much-higher-than-expected 1.0%, while consumption was inline, up 0.2%.

In other economic data on the week, a second reading on fourth-quarter GDP was 3.2%, down a tick from the first look of 3.3%.

January new home sales came in less than forecast, 661,000 annualized.

The Case-Shiller home price index for December was in line with expectations, up 0.2% month-over-month on the 20-city index, up 6.1% for the year.

January durable goods (big ticket items) were off 6.1%, and -0.3% ex-transportation.

The Chicago purchasing managers index for February was 44.0, below forecasts and the 46.0 reading prior, 50 the dividing line between growth and contraction.

The national ISM manufacturing figure for February was a less-than-expected 47.8.  Construction spending for January was -0.2%, when a gain of 0.2% was forecast.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow barometer for first-quarter growth is down to 2.1%, after today’s poor ISM and construction spending numbers.

Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed-rate mortgage ticked up again to 6.94%.

Meanwhile, Congress passed another short-term spending measure Thursday that would keep one set of federal agencies operating through March 8 and another set through March 22, avoiding a shutdown for parts of the federal government that would otherwise kick in Saturday.

The short-term extension is the fourth in recent months, and many lawmakers expect it to be the last for the current fiscal year. House Speaker Mike Johnson said negotiators had completed six of the annual spending bills that fund federal agencies and had “almost final agreement on the others.”

“We’ll get the job done,” Johnson said after a meeting with Republican colleagues.

The House acted first, passing the extension 320-99, with 113 Republicans in support and 97 against.

The Senate then approved it by a vote of 77-13.

Lastly, shipping giant Maersk on Tuesday told its clients in a statement that they should prepare for disruptions in the Red Sea to last into the second half of the year and to build longer transit times into their supply chain planning.  This is inflationary.

Europe and Asia

The Euro area’s flash estimate on inflation for February was released by Eurostat, 2.6%, down from 2.8% in January.  The core rate, ex-food and energy was 3.3%, down from 3.6% prior and 7.4% a year earlier.

Headline inflation....

Germany 2.7%, France 3.1%, Italy 0.9%, Spain 2.9%, Netherlands 2.7%, Ireland 2.2%.

Policymakers at the European Central Bank remained cautious about when to ease the fight against inflation.  At a meeting of the European Parliament this week, ECB President Christine Lagarde noted that demands for higher wages were strong, a force that can lead to higher prices. “Wage growth is expected to become an increasingly important driver of inflation dynamics in the coming quarters,” she said.

Eurozone manufacturing PMI figures for February were released by S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank, with the overall figure at 46.5, essentially unchanged from January.

Germany 42.5 (4-month low)
France 47.1 (11-month high)
Italy 48.7 (11-month high)
Spain 51.5 (20-month high)
Netherlands 49.3 (13-month high)
Ireland 52.2 (20-month high)

UK 47.5

Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist HCB:

“The eurozone’s one-year industrial recession is not coming to an end. Output has declined again at the same pace as the previous month, mainly due to the heavyweights Germany and France. Spain, by contrast, is the first of the leading four euro countries to re-enter growth territory.  On a slightly more positive note, the decline in new orders in the Eurozone has softened somewhat, offering a glimmer of hope for a potential demand recovery in the future.”

Euro area unemployment for January came in at 6.4% (Eurostat), down a tick from December and 6.6% in January 2023.

Germany 3.1%, France 7.5%, Italy 7.2%, Spain 11.6%, Netherlands 3.6%, Ireland 4.5%.

Turning to Asia...China’s PMI data was released, courtesy of the National Bureau of Statistics, and the manufacturing number was 49.1, non-manufacturing 51.4.  Caixin’s private manufacturing PMI was 50.9 (the services reading next week).

Separately, China’s Communist Party signaled it intended to double down on efforts to support the economy.  In a statement following a meeting of the Politburo, the party’s 24-member primary decision-making body, officials said that “proactive fiscal policy must be moderately strengthened and improved in quality and efficiency, while prudent monetary policy should be flexible, moderate, precise and effective.”

China’s annual parliamentary meetings, also known as the “two sessions,” start next week.

Japan’s January inflation data was down from December’s readings, 2.2% year-on-year on headline vs. 2.6% prior, while ex-food and energy, the core was 3.5% vs. 3.7% in December.

January’s industrial production figure, -7.5% over December, was the worst month-over-month performance since May 2020 (read Pandemic), as government data showed a downturn in motor vehicle production, adding to concerns about the fragility of an economy that slipped into recession late last year.  Year-over-year, industrial production fell 1.5%.

January retail sales rose 0.8% month-over-month, 2.3% Y/Y.

The manufacturing PMI for February was a lousy 47.2 vs. a prior 48.0, the fastest pace of decline since Aug. 2020.

Japan’s always low unemployment rate for January was 2.4%.

Separately, the number of babies born in Japan declined for an eight straight year to a fresh record low in 2023, preliminary government data showed on Tuesday, underscoring the daunting task the country faces in trying to stem depopulation.

The number of births fell 5.1% from a year earlier to 758,631, while the number of marriages slid 5.9% to 489,281 – the first time in 90 years the number fell below 500,000 – foreboding a further decline in the population as out-of-wedlock births are rare in Japan.

South Korea’s February manufacturing PMI isn’t released until Monday.

But South Korea’s birth rate, echoing Japan’s (and China’s recent dismal report), already the lowest in the world, continues to plummet, beating its own staggeringly low record year after year.

Figures released on Wednesday show it fell by another 8% in 2023 to 0.72, referring to the number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime.  For a population to hold steady, that figure should be 2.1.

If this trend continues, South Korea’s population would halve by the year 2100.

Taiwan’s mfg. PMI was 48.6.

Street Bytes

--Stocks finished mixed, barely, as the Dow Jones fell 0.1% to 39087, but the S&P 500, up 1.0% on the week to 5137, and Nasdaq, up 1.7% to 16274, sit at record highs; for Nasdaq its highest level (first achieved with Thursday’s gains) since November 2021.

Nvidia, the market darling, closed today with a market capitalization of over $2 trillion for the first time.

--U.S. Treasury Yields

6-mo. 5.28%  2-yr. 4.53%  10-yr. 4.18%  30-yr. 4.33%

Treasuries rallied further Friday afternoon after Fed Governor Christopher Waller, a permanent voting member like John Williams, said the central bank should boost its shares of short-term Treasuries. 

The yield on the 2-year dropped 16 basis points from a week ago, the 10-year seven bps.

--Chevron warned investors Monday that Exxon Mobil and China’s CNOOC are asserting they have a right to pre-empt the company’s bid for a stake in a prolific oil project off Guyana, an emerging dispute that could derail Chevron’s megadeal for Hess.

Chevron said in a regulatory filing that Exxon and CNOOC say they have the right to counter Chevron’s offer for Hess’s stake in the Guyana project, which Exxon operates and is one of the largest oil finds in years.  Chevron warned investors it may not complete its purchase of Hess “within the time frame the company anticipates or at all.”

Much of the value in Chevron’s $53 billion all-stock acquisition of Hess proposed last year was tied to the smaller New York company’s 30% stake in an Exxon-led drilling consortium in Guyanese waters.  Production has been prolific and is expected to result in 1 million barrels a day in coming years.

It’s unclear what happens next...if Exxon and CNOOC make a counteroffer or not.  They are just asserting their right to do so.

--A panel of experts convened by the Federal Aviation Administration slammed Boeing Co.’s safety culture and faulted the planemaker for ineffective procedures and a breakdown in communications between senior management and other members of staff, in a report released Monday.  Constant changes to complex procedures and training led to confusion, while other shortcomings hindered the average employee’s understanding of their role in how Boeing manages safety, according to the report.

“I really hope this is a wake-up call to the Boeing Company,” said Rich Plunkett, a member of the expert review panel and director of strategic development for the union that represents Boeing’s engineers.

The findings underscore how Boeing is still struggling with a more fundamental concern: ensuring that bad news from its factory floors reaches executives on the other side of the country.

--Ryanair will receive even fewer Boeing aircraft by the end of June than previously expected, CEO Michael O’Leary said over the weekend, potentially causing the budget carrier to cut its summer schedule at the busiest time of the year.

The Dublin-based airline is the first in Europe to warn of disruption due to a deepening crisis at Boeing, which has been prohibited from ramping up 737 MAX production since the Jan. 5 mid-air panel blowout of a new Alaska Airlines MAX 9.  Ryanair was due to receive 57 Boeing MAX aircraft by end of April, but just over a week ago Boeing told the airline it would receive around 50 by end of June, O’Leary said.

“We don’t really know how many aircraft we’re going to get from Boeing,” O’Leary told a media briefing.  Ergo, Ryanair might have to remove some flights from its summer schedule.

O’Leary also warned that Ryanair’s ticket prices will be up to 10 percent higher this summer compared with the same period last year, due to the airline carrying fewer passengers with the delay in deliveries.  O’Leary noted “Our average air fares in summer 2023 rose 17 percent... If capacity was growing I think fares would be falling.”

--United Airlines raised its fee for checking bags a la American Airlines last week, with UAL economy-class passengers on domestic flights charged $5 more, bringing the price to $35 if they pay online at least 24 hours before the flight, and $40 after that.  The fee for a second bag rises to $45 in advance, $50 at the airport.

--TSA checkpoint numbers vs. 2023

2/29...110 percent of 2023 levels
2/28...103
2/27...102
2/26...118...anomaly
2/25...106
2/24...102
2/23...105
2/22...108

--Apple is ditching its secretive electric-car plans after a decade of work on the project, shifting its focus – and some of the 2,000 workers on the car – to its efforts in generative artificial intelligence, according to multiple reports.  The news was broken to the roughly 2,000-member team during a meeting that lasted less than 15 minutes.

The move ramps up the pressure on Apple to get its AI developments right. It’s late to the party and the market will expect big things.

--Lowe’s sees macroeconomic uncertainty weighing on its outlook for the year as the do-it-yourself business continues slowing, even though the retailer’s fiscal fourth-quarter results topped market estimates.

The company anticipates per-share earnings in a range of $12 to $12.30 and sales between $84 billion to $85 billion for fiscal 2024, with the Street at $12.28 EPS and revenue of $85.5 billion.  In the just ended fiscal year, earnings increased to $13.20 a share from $10.17, while sales dropped to $86.3 billion from $97.06 billion.

Comparable sales are expected to be down 2% to 3% on an annual basis in the ongoing year, according to the retailer.  The Street’s current forecast is for a 1.3% decrease.  In the last quarter, the sales slipped 6.2% as demand slowed and January winter weather weighed.

Lowe’s aims to focus on market share acceleration, including growing its online business and expanding installation services.

For the three-month period ended Feb. 2, Lowe’s reported EPS of $1.77, up from $1.58 a year earlier.  Sales fell to $18.6 billion from $22.45 billion in the prior-year quarter.

--Macy’s forecast annual sales below market expectations on weak demand for its apparel and shoes and said it would close 150 stores through 2026 in a new turnaround plan, sending shares down about 3% on Tuesday. The retailer did not provide details on the location of stores set to close or how many employees will be laid off.  But new CEO Tony Spring added Macy’s will focus on upgrading its remaining 350 locations.

The move comes as sluggish sales have landed the upscale retailer in the crosshairs of activist shareholders and attracted potential bidders.

The new plan is in addition to Macy’s decision in January to close five stores and cut 2,350 jobs, or 3.5% of its overall workforce. The company also said it would open 15 Bloomingdale’s locations and at least 30 new Bluemercury stores over the next three years to accelerate growth for its better-performing luxury brands.

Macy’s posted holiday quarter comparable sales of down 4.2%, better than analysts’ estimates of a 5.8% drop, as steep discounts helped draw shoppers.  However, net credit card revenue fell 26% to $195 million, in a sign that economic pressure, particularly among its low- and middle-income customers, led to higher bad debts.

Ex-items, Macy’s earned $2.45 per share. It expects fiscal 2024 net sales between $22.2 billion and $22.9bn, compared to consensus of $22.95bn, with adjusted earnings between $2.45 and $2.85, with expectations at $2.76.

--Best Buy posted a smaller drop in fourth-quarter sales than expected and beat profit estimates on Thursday, benefiting from holiday deals for big-ticket purchases and growth in paid memberships.  Shares of the top electronics retailer rose about 2% on the news as its paid membership program brought in customers and helped the company expand its gross profit.

“Paid members consistently showed higher levels of interaction with comparatively higher levels of spend at Best Buy and a shift away from competitors,” CEO Corie Barry said.

With subscription tiers of $179.99 and $49.99 per year, the program led to better services margin rates, helping quarterly gross profit rise to 20.5% from 20% a year ago.

Best Buy forecast an annual drop in comp sales of as much as 3% compared to market expectations of a 0.2% rise.   The company earned $2.72 per share in the fourth quarter, compared to consensus of $2.52.  Revenue for the quarter ended Feb. 3 was $14.65 billion compared with $14.74bn a year earlier.  Comp sales fell 4.8%, its ninth straight quarterly decline, though this was better than the Street’s outlook for a 5.4% drop. 

The company expects fiscal 2025 EPS of $5.75 to $6.20 and $41.3 billion to $42.6 billion in revenue, with the Street at $6.13 in adjusted EPS on revenue of $42.34bn.

--The Federal Trade Commission sued to block Kroger’s proposed $25 billion merger with rival Albertsons, saying the combination would raise prices for consumers and dent pay for workers. The companies’ plan to sell 413 stores in 17 states as part of the deal won’t solve the problem, the lawsuit said.

Nine states, including California, joined the FTC’s case.  Lawmakers including Sen. Elizabeth Warren and the United Food and Commercial Workers International Union, which represents workers, also oppose the merger.

Kroger said blocking the merger would harm consumers, who would see higher prices and fewer grocery stores, and would strengthen nonunion grocers.  Kroger said it has cut prices every year since 2003, investing $5 billion to lower prices, and reducing its gross margin 5%.

Big-box chains including Walmart and Costco Wholesale have been gaining market share in food retail as they leverage their size for cheaper prices.  Online competitors such as Amazon.com have forced more traditional grocers to offer pickup and home delivery to compete.

--Warren Buffett has warned Berkshire Hathaway shareholders that his sprawling $905 billion conglomerate has virtually “no possibility of eye-popping performance” in the years ahead, laying bare the challenges that will confront his successors.

In his annual letter on Saturday, Buffett said that there were very few deals that offer the kind of transformative impact past takeovers have had, such as its purchases of insurers GEICO and National Indemnity or the BNSF railroad.

“There remain only a handful of companies in this country capable of truly moving the needle at Berkshire, and they have been endlessly picked over by us and by others,” he said.  “Outside the U.S., there are essentially no candidates that are meaningful options for capital deployment at Berkshire.”

Berkshire’s cash pile hit a record $167.6 billion at the end of 2023, up $39 billion over the course of the year.

“Size did us in, though increased competition for purchases was also a factor,” Mr. Buffett said.  “For a while, we had an abundance of candidates to evaluate.  If I missed one – and I missed plenty – another always came along. Those days are long behind us.”

The 93-year-old Buffett, who lost his long-time investment partner Charlie Munger last year, said Berkshire should continue to “do a bit better” than the average U.S. company “and, more important, should also operate with materially less risk of permanent loss of capital.”

He added: “Anything beyond ‘slightly better,’ though, is wishful thinking.”

With vice-chair Munger gone, investors’ attention has turned toward Buffett’s anointed successor, Greg Abel, and Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, his investment deputies.

It’s a tough act to follow.  Since 1964, Berkshire shares have returned 4.4 million percent, far outstripping the 31,233 percent gain by the benchmark S&P 500.

On Saturday, Buffett emphasized that the “extreme fiscal conservatism” that has long been a guiding principle of the conglomerate would undoubtedly persist.

“One investment rule at Berkshire has not and will not change: never risk permanent loss of capital,” he wrote.  “Thanks to the American tailwind and the power of compound interest, the arena in which we operate has been – and will be – rewarding if you make a couple of good decisions during a lifetime and avoid serious mistakes.”

Buffett added that Berkshire would continue to pounce on opportunities when they present themselves, as the company did in early 2022 when it ploughed more than $50 billion into stocks as the market sold off.

He also used the letter to memorialize Munger, describing the 99-year-old’s relationship to him as “part older brother, part loving father.”

“In the physical world, great buildings are linked to their architect while those who had poured the concrete or installed the windows are soon forgotten,” Buffett said.  “Berkshire has become a great company.  Though I have long been in charge of the construction crew, Charlie should forever be credited with being the architect.”

As for Berkshire’s annual results, also reported on Saturday, the company showed a net profit of $96.2 billion, which Buffett considered “worse-than-useless,” given accounting rules that require the company to include the quarterly swings in value of its $354 billion stock portfolio in its bottom line.

Stripping out those unrealized gains, Berkshire reported that operating earnings jumped 21 percent from a year earlier to $37.4 billion for 2023.  [Operating profits were up a headier 28 percent to $8.5 billion in the fourth quarter.]

Gains were fueled by strong results from Berkshire’s insurance unit, including GEICO, the Gekko’s contract renewed for 2024.  Higher interest rates were manna for Berkshire’s short-term Treasury portfolio, which generated some $6.1 billion for Berkshire’s insurance unit in 2023, eclipsing the $5.5 billion it earned in dividends on stocks.

--President Biden took steps on Thursday toward blocking Chinese electric vehicles from entry to the U.S. auto market, saying inter-connected cars and trucks from China posed risks to national security because their operating systems could send sensitive information to Beijing.

The Commerce Department opened an investigation into security threats, which could lead to new regulations on Chinese vehicles.

Administration officials made it clear this is the first step in what could be a wide range of policy responses meant to stop low-cost Chinese EVs – either manufactured in China or assembled by Chinese companies in Mexico – from flooding the U.S. market and potentially driving domestic automakers out of business.

Some of China’s smaller EVs sell for less than $11,000 each – or like $20,000+ less than U.S. models.

“China is determined to dominate the future of the auto market, including by using unfair practices,” Biden said in a statement accompanying the announcement.  “China’s policies could flood our market with its vehicles, posing risks to our national security.  I’m not going to let that happen on my watch.”

Lael Brainard, who heads the president’s National Economic Council, said China is “flooding foreign markets with their autos.  Many of those vehicles can connect on a continuous basis with our infrastructure potentially, with the drivers’ smartphones, with nearby cars. So they’re collecting a tremendous amount of information.”

In a briefing call with reporters, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said it was “scary to contemplate the cyber risks, espionage risks, that these pose.”  [Jim Tankersley / New York Times]

--Salesforce late Wednesday reported higher-than-expected fiscal fourth-quarter results, driven by a double-digit rise in subscription and support revenue, while the software maker’s top-line outlook for the year trailed Wall Street’s estimates.

Adjusted per-share earnings rose to $2.29 during the three months ended Jan. 31 from $1.68 a year earlier, topping consensus of $2.27.  Revenue gained 11% to $9.29 billion, compared to the Street’s view of $9.22 billion.

Subscription and support revenue gained 12% to $8.75 billion.

Salesforce said it expects fiscal 2025 revenue of $37.7 billion to $38 billion, which would fall short of the Street’s current consensus of $38.6 billion.  The company forecast adjusted EPS of $9.68 to $9.76, vs. analysts’ expectations of $9.58.

The shares initially fell on the mixed guidance, but rallied after the company declared a first-ever quarterly dividend of $0.40 per share, while increasing the size of its share repurchase program by $10 billion.

--Snowflake shares plunged nearly 20% on Thursday after the cloud data storage services provider projected annual revenue below Street estimates and disclosed the surprise retirement of long-time CEO Frank Slootman.

Snowflake expects product revenue of $3.25 billion in fiscal 2025, and between $745 million and $750 million for the quarter ending April, both below consensus.

Slootman was instrumental in Snowflake’s initial public offering in 2020, virtually ringing the opening bell at the NYSE in the middle of the pandemic.  The data storage provider was the third company he took public after ServiceNow and Data Domain.  [Salesforce once backed Snowflake.]

--Dell Technologies shares soared over 20% Friday after the company late Thursday reported a surprise increase in fiscal fourth-quarter earnings even as the computer maker said clients were “cautious” with their tech spending.

Adjusted earnings increased to $2.20 a share for the quarter ended Feb. 2 from $1.80 a year earlier, compared with consensus of $1.72.  Revenue fell 11% to $22.32 billion but came in higher than the Street’s view of $22.17bn.

“We’ve just started to touch the (artificial intelligence) opportunities ahead of us, including broader adoption of AI by enterprise customers and the projected growth in unstructured data where we are well positioned with industry leading storage solutions,” Chief Operating Officer Jeff Clarke said in prepared remarks that were published on the company’s website.

The client solutions group, which includes hardware like computers, generated revenue of $11.72 billion, down from $13.36bn.

“In the near-term, the PC market is still soft, and we expect recovery to push into the second half,” Clarke said.  Overall, enterprise and large customers were “cautious” with their tech spending in the fourth quarter, he said.

“We remain optimistic about the coming PC refresh cycle as the PC install base continues to age, Windows 10 reaches end-of-life later next year, and the industry makes advances in AI-enabled architectures and software applications,” Clarke said.

--HP Inc. reported revenues fell 4.4% year-on-year to $13.19 billion vs. expectations of $13.56 billion. Consumer printing net revenue was down 22%, which since I am HP’s single biggest individual consumer is the only reason why I report their earnings.  HPQ reaffirmed guidance for fiscal 2024, and sees EPS of $3.25-$3.65, vs. the Street’s $3.45.

--Blackstone Inc. CEO Steve Schwarzman took home $896.7 million last year, a 30% drop from a year earlier, yet still one of the biggest annual payouts on record in high finance.

Schwarzman, 77, collected $777 million in dividends alone from his roughly 20% stake in the alternative-asset manager, according to a regulatory filing, Friday.  He earned an additional $120 million mostly through incentive fees and the share of fund profits known as carried interest.  He received a record $1.27 billion in 2022.

Schwarzman is worth an estimated $41.8 billion, according to Bloomberg’s Billionaires Index.

As they used to say on “Hee Haw,” “SAA-LUTE!”

--Former talk show host Oprah Winfrey is leaving WeightWatchers board of directors and donating all of her interest in the company, said to be 1.1 million shares, to the National Museum of African American History and Culture, part of the Smithsonian,.  The shares of WW International Inc. tumbled 18% in response.

Winfrey, who told People magazine in December that she was using a weight-loss medication, has served on the company’s board since 2015.

The stock was $40 as recently as May 2021, but has plummeted to $3, as it gets run over by the weight-loss drug revolution.

--Bitcoin soared this week, over $63,000 on Wednesday, with a monthly gain of more than 45%, the largest since December 2020. The all-time high is $69,000, November 2021.  There was a surge in trading in bitcoin ETFs, which were just introduced in January.

--Domino’s Pizza shares surged 5% after the company logged better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings, even though revenue fell short of market estimates.

Net income came in at $4.48 a share for the December quarter, up from $4.43 the year before. The consensus among analysts was for $4.40.

Total revenue edged up 0.8% to $1.4 billion, trailing the Street’s view of $1.42 billion.  U.S. same-store sales rose 2.8%, while international operations, excluding the impact of foreign exchange, ticked up 0.1%.

Domino’s saw global net growth of 394 stores in the quarter, with 92 openings in the U.S. and 302 internationally.  It had 20,591 stores at the end of December.

The company said it continues to expect to achieve its long-term objectives including global retail sales gains of more than 7%, global net growth of above 1,100 stores every year and more than 8% annual income from operations growth.

--Online travel platform Expedia said Monday it was cutting about 1,500 jobs globally, or 9% of its total workforce, as part of its “organizational and technological transformation.”

The restructuring comes after Expedia warned earlier this month that revenue would moderate in 2024 as air ticket prices drop and said CEO Peter Kern was stepping down.

Travel companies are tempering expectations for 2024, a sign that demand is expected to grow more slowly this year.

Last week, Booking Holdings forecast slower first quarter and full-year growth in bookings as U.S. travel demand normalizes.

--Anheuser-Busch InBev, maker of Budweiser, Bud Light, Stella Artois and Corona, reported a 7% increase in operating profit for last year, even as sales sagged in the U.S. due to a decline in demand for Bud Light.

The earnings news came hours after the company avoided a strike by 5,000 of its U.S. workers as negotiators reached agreement late Wednesday.

Full-year profit declined to $6.89 billion from $7.60 billion the year before.  Total revenue rose 7.8% to $59.38 billion.  The company’s CEO Michel Doukeris cited “another year of consistent profitable growth” in which it reduced debt and saw its credit rating upgraded.

U.S. revenue declined 9.5% for the year and 17.3% in the fourth quarter, primarily due to the volume decline of Bud Light, the company said in an earnings release.

The Leuven, Belgium-based company is facing declining beer sales in the U.S., where drinkers are increasingly opting for spirits, hard seltzers and alcohol-free beverages.  [Not moi, said the editor.]  Bud Light, its best-selling brand there, faced a conservative backlash last year after it sent a commemorative can to transgender activist Dylan Mulvaney.

The company did better in Europe, where it increased revenue despite declining volumes and grew operating profit.  Profits rose in China.

--Shares in Intuitive Machines were on a roller coaster the past two weeks.  The space exploration firm said communications with its Odysseus moon lander, which had fallen onto its side, ceased late Tuesday, days ahead of schedule.

The payload that had tipped sideways contains an art piece comprising miniature stainless steel sculptures by artist Jeff Koons.  But the rest of the payloads were able to carry out their scientific objectives, albeit in fits and starts.

Intuitive fell about 35% on Monday, after rising Friday.  But the news that Odi had tipped over on its side came at about 5:10 p.m. ET, Friday, after the market had closed.  Nonetheless, company executives said last Friday that the lander would be able to operate for about nine or 10 days under a “best-case scenario.”  In landing sideways, the vehicle’s solar panels had limited exposure to the sun.

[Note: I posted my column at 4:30 p.m. ET last week and didn’t know Odi was on its side as the press conference came after.  My apologies, but to me, and NASA, the mission was still a success.]

By week’s end, the shares traded at about $6 after hitting $11.85, intraday, last Friday.

--Mauritius denied a Norwegian cruise ship permission to dock at the capital Port Louis over fears of a potential cholera outbreak on board.  At least 15 people on the Norwegian Dawn were in isolation over suspected illness.

There have been cholera outbreaks in southern Africa over the last few months, with Zambia being hardest hit.

Alas, tests showed no cholera outbreak and the ship was allowed to dock.

--Live Nation Entertainment revealed Friday that concert attendance jumped by 20% in 2023 – the year Taylor Swift and Beyonce launched their blockbuster greatest-hits tours.

The ticket vendor and concert promoter also noted in its latest earnings report that ticket sales were up 30%, with more than 620 million tickets sold by Ticketmaster bringing in nearly $36 billion.  In 2023 alone, more than 145 million people attended upwards of 50,000 live events, the company reported.

All of this led to the live music behemoth increasing its revenue by 36% in 2023 to $22.7 billion and growing its operating income by 46% to $1.07 billion.

Foreign Affairs, Part II

Iran: Iranians went to the polls today to vote for a new parliament in an election seen as a test of the clerical establishment’s legitimacy at a time of growing frustration over the poor economy and restrictions on social and political freedoms.  It is the first formal measure of public opinion since anti-government protests in 2022-23 spiraled into some of the worst political turmoil since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Iran’s rulers are looking for a large turnout to repair their legitimacy, damaged by the unrest, but official surveys suggested only around 40% of eligible Iranians would vote.  Turnout was only 42.5% in the 2020 parliamentary elections.

Partial results may appear on Saturday.

On another topic, Tehran is currently producing uranium enriched to up to 60% purity, close to weapons grade, at a rate of around 9 kg per month, the rate that it returned to in late November after a slowdown last year, a senior diplomat said on Monday. The International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Gross last week, as I reported, said 7 kg a month in an interview with Reuters, but Grossi, it seems, was using old data that included the slowdown period.

Meanwhile, the U.S. and Britain struck more than a dozen Houthi targets in Yemen on Saturday, answering a recent surge in attacks by the Iran-backed militia group on ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

According to U.S. officials, American and British fighter jets hit about 18 sites across multiple locations, targeting missiles, launchers, rockets, drones and unmanned surface and underwater vehicles.

As of last weekend, and since Nov. 19, the Houthis had launched at least 57 attacks on commercial and military ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden and picked up the pace prior to last Saturday’s U.S. and British action.

China: Beijing is planning to launch more civilian flights along a sensitive route in the Taiwan Strait that may add to the pressure on the island by squeezing its air defenses.  The change comes amid heightened tensions following the deaths of two mainland fishermen who were being chased by the Taiwanese coast guard earlier in February, as well as the boarding of a Taiwanese tourist boat by the Chinese coast guard.

The new routes are extensions of an existing controversial flight path that is just a few kilometers from the median line in the Taiwan Strait which unofficially separates the island and the Chinese mainland.

Once launched, mainland planes could easily stray over the line, which analysts say would put more strain on the island’s air defenses because of the need to distinguish between military and civilian planes and reduce the time available to respond to any attack.  [South China Morning Post]

Yaroslav Trofimov / Wall Street Journal

“The sense of anxiety is particularly high in Taiwan... America’s walking away from Ukraine, if it happens, ‘is going to be a disaster and is going to encourage the dictators in Beijing, in North Korea and in other countries,’ warned Wang Ting-yu, who is slated to become chairman of the Taiwanese parliament’s defense and foreign affairs committee.  ‘They will realize that the global leader doesn’t have the strength to keep its patience to support its allies. And if they think that way, they will make wrong decisions and misjudgments.’

“That’s a warning echoed by the Biden administration and by some leading Republicans, including the Senate minority leader, Mitch McConnell, who helped to shepherd through this month’s bipartisan bill, which would provide $95 billion in aid for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan.  ‘The entire world of democracies thinks this is important, and we are the leader of this free world.  We cannot back away,’ Sen. McConnell said about helping Ukraine in an interview.  ‘This is not the time, in my view, to be sending the message that we are not up to the task.’”

Yes, Taipei, and Beijing, are watching.

--I subscribe to the Army Times, not because of past military service in my case, but just to stay up on things, as I am wont to do, and here’s a disturbing bit from Retired U.S. Navy Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery, in the February 2024 issue that I just received:

“The Pentagon warned in its annual report to Congress last year that China already possesses ‘the world’s leading hypersonic arsenal’ and is sprinting to field even more advanced offensive capabilities.  These weapons would give Beijing a capability to conduct a prompt strike that paralyzes America’s command-and-control and missile-defense capabilities.

“The good news is that the United States is making progress on its own offensive hypersonic weapons. The bad news is that American efforts to develop systems that can defend against Chinese hypersonic capabilities are not keeping pace. If Washington does not act quickly to expedite the Pentagon’s fielding of hypersonic missile defense capabilities, deterrence may fail in the Pacific.”

Reminder, a hypersonic missile can travel at speeds above Mach 5, or greater than 1 mile per second.  And China’s have maneuverability that present a different challenge.

Adm. Montgomery concludes: “That’s why Washington should prioritize hypersonic missile defense before it is too late.”

Random Musings

--Presidential approval ratings....

Gallup: New numbers...38% approve of President Biden’s job performance, 59% disapprove; 32% of independents approve (Feb. 1-20). Prior split was 41-54, 35 (Jan. 2-22).

The 38% approval is one point shy of Biden’s all-time low in the Gallup survey.

Rasmussen: 42% approve, 56% disapprove (Mar. 1).

--Donald Trump defeated Nikki Haley by a 59.8% to 39.5% margin in Saturday’s South Carolina primary, which was actually better than expected for Haley and yet that wasn’t the narrative after.

And as a Fox News poll found, 59% of Haley’s voters say they wouldn’t vote for Trump if he is the GOP nominee. The exit poll also showed that 36% of South Carolina primary voters said a conviction in one of his criminal trials would make him unfit to be President.

As the Wall Street Journal opined: “Even if most of those voters hold their noses and vote for Mr. Trump in a race against Mr. Biden, the question is how many stay home, vote for a third party, or go over to Mr. Biden.  Even a 10% defection could be decisive....

“There’s no denying that Ms. Haley faces an uphill battle in a party in which Mr. Trump and his allies have become the establishment. It’s long past time to retire the media trope that Donald Trump is some insurgent against the establishment. When you’ve been President and may be the three-time nominee, you’re as establishment as it gets.

“Ms. Haley is telling voters she can be the alternative as a uniter that millions of them seem to want.  It’s a message worth staying in the race for, as is the case for not abandoning Ukraine, Israel or Taiwan.  She is also staking out a claim to be the candidate in 2028 who could say she warned Republicans if Mr. Trump loses this year.  If Mr. Trump can’t win over more of her voters, he could make Ms. Haley a prophet.”

--Donald Trump then whipped Nikki Haley in the Michigan primary, 68.2% to 26.5%. 

In a statement after the race was called, a spokeswoman for the Haley campaign, Olivia Perez-Cubas, said the share of Republican voters who did not back Trump was a “flashing warning sign for Trump in November.”  She also pointed out since Trump was elected to the White House in 2016, Republicans had lost the Michigan governor’s mansion as well as both chambers of the state Legislature to Democrats.

Haley has continued to court donors and reported raising $16.5 million in January.  She said she will keep competing through the Super Tuesday contests on March 5.

--But going back to Sunday, and post-South Carolina, the Charles Koch-backed Americans for Prosperity Action announced it would cut off funding for Haley’s campaign, a big blow.

AFP, a conservative super political action committee, has spent millions of dollars since the fall on advertising and voter outreach efforts for Haley helping to fuel her bid for the Republican nomination.

“Given the challenges in the primary states ahead, we don’t believe any outside group can make a material difference to widen her path to victory,” Emily Seidel, a senior adviser for AFP Action, said in a memo Sunday, obtained by Bloomberg News.  “And so, while we will continue to endorse her, we will focus our resources where we can make the difference. And that’s the U.S. Senate and House.”

I was kind of miffed at AFP’s decision.  The polls had Trump beating Haley by about 30 percent in South Carolina (AFP making its decision prior to Michigan) and he won by 20%.  What did they think would happen?

On to Super Tuesday, March 5, where 874 Republican delegates will be up for grabs, including in California, where if Trump gets more than 50% (expected), he gains all 169 delegates.

--Joe Biden received 81.1% of the Democratic primary vote in Michigan, while uncommitted got 13.3%, Marianne Williamson 3.0%, and Dean Phillips 2.7%.  Williamson, who had suspended her campaign but remained on the ballot, Wednesday said she was back in it, baby!

--A Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll of 4,955 registered voters in the swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, conducted Feb. 12-20, showed eight in 10 believing Joe Biden was too old, when asked to think about the frontrunners in the 2024 election. The survey was taken after a special prosecutor’s report that cast the president as an “elderly man with a poor memory.”

In contrast, less than half of respondents said Donald Trump was too old.  But Trump has his own vulnerabilities with swing-state voters, with a majority saying the former president is dangerous.

Biden continues to trail Trump in all seven states, and Trump maintains his lead over Biden if other candidates – independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein and Cornel West – are included.

If head-to-head....

Arizona...Trump 49-43; Georgia...49-43; Michigan...46-44; Nevada...48-42; North Carolina...50-41; Pennsylvania...49-43; Wisconsin...46-42.

--Senator Mitch McConnell said on Wednesday he would give up his spot as the Republican party’s Senate leader at the end of this year, acknowledging that his Reaganite national security views had put him out of step with a party now headed by Donald Trump.

“Believe me, I know the politics within my party at this particular time,” said McConnell on the Senate floor announcing his intentions. “I have many faults.  Misunderstanding politics is not one of them.”

At 82, this was not a surprise, though maybe the timing was.  McConnell suffered a serious fall last year and has experienced some episodes where he momentarily froze in front of the media. He should have given up the leadership position at that time.

He claims he will serve out his full Senate term ending in 2027.

At the White House meeting on Tuesday where he strongly advocated congressional passage of a foreign aid bill that includes more than $60 billion for Ukraine, McConnell said:

“I believe more strongly than ever that America’s global leadership is essential to preserving the shining city on a hill that Ronald Reagan discussed.”

Some of us, though, will remember the McConnell, who broke with Trump over his refusal to acknowledge that President Biden had won the 2020 election and over the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the Capitol, who then didn’t vote to convict Trump on impeachment grounds.

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“The great irony of Mr. McConnell’s legacy is that the left hates him because he’s effective, which his own party often failed to appreciate.  Mr. McConnell devoted considerable energy to building GOP majorities, raising money and trying to nominate candidates who could win.  He also used those resources to drag weak candidates across the finish line – see J.D. Vance in Ohio in 2022.

“Mr. McConnell’s most lasting accomplishment was remaking the federal judiciary. The leader’s refusal to allow a confirmation vote to replace the late Antonin Scalia on the Supreme Court ahead of the 2016 election was a political gamble for the ages that took steely nerves and credibility with his GOP colleagues. Mr. Trump would not have won without that open Supreme Court seat as the motivation for millions of conservative voters.

“The Senate confirmed some 234 judges during Mr. Trump’s term, including 54 circuit nominees and three Supreme Court Justices....

“Mr. Trump will never admit it, but Mr. McConnell also did the heavy legislative lifting to pass Mr. Trump’s 2017 tax reform, and he came within a vote of repealing the Affordable Care Act....

“Give Mr. McConnell credit for bowing out with ample time for his colleagues to coalesce around a successor. Three capable possibilities are members of his leadership team: John Cornyn (Texas), John Barrasso (Wyo.) and John Thune (S.D.).  But others may emerge....

“For all the complaints about Mr. McConnell, no Senate leader since Lyndon Johnson has better understood how to use the upper chamber’s levers of power. Whatever the politics of the moment, he will be remembered as the conservative master of the Senate.”

Editorial / Washington Post

“Mr. McConnell worked in President Gerald Ford’s Justice Department and rode President Ronald Reagan’s coattails to a Senate seat in 1984. Lately, he has struggled with GOP populists who reject his understanding of conservatism.  Mr. McConnell has maintained his Reaganesque convictions about the United States’ role in the world.  He got 21 Senate Republicans to join him this month in supporting a $95 billion aid package for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan – despite Mr. Trump’s opposition. Now, he’s pressing the House to pass it.

“During a Wednesday floor speech, Mr. McConnell acknowledged that his party has changed underneath him but pledged to stay true to his principles until his Senate term ends in January 2027. The minority leader has an opportunity to become a statesman, defending NATO, free trade, democracy, the rule of law and other things that undergird American strength.  ‘For as long as I am drawing breath on this Earth, I will defend American exceptionalism,’ he said.  For all Mr. McConnell’s many flaws, there might come a day, sooner than many think, when even his harshest critics miss him.”

--President Biden and Donald Trump made competing visits to the southern border, Thursday, Biden in Brownsville, Trump in Eagle Pass, each seeking to stress they can tackle illegal immigration, though Biden has done a miserable job of doing so his 3+ years in office.

Biden accused Trump – who spoke of the “very dangerous” situation at the border – of hindering his efforts to crackdown on crossings.

Republicans in the House have blocked bipartisan border reforms, in an effort masterminded by Trump to deny them a win before the election.

Trump has said he would “take care” of the issue of illegal immigration if he was re-elected.

--Former NBC Sports broadcaster Bob Costas unloaded on former President Trump, and President Biden, in an appearance last Saturday on Michael Smerconish’s CNN program.

Smerconish brought Costas on to revisit comments he made on HBO’s “Real Time with Bill Maher” earlier this month, when he claimed that Biden’s “hubris” is making him run for re-election even though it’s not in the best interests of his party or the country.

As for Trump and his supporters, Costas said, “He is by far the most disgraceful figure in modern presidential history.  He’s only become more disgraceful since 2016 and since 2020. He is a bubbling cauldron of loathsome traits.”

Costas then added that only a cult would believe that Trump is fit for office.

“You have be in the throes of some sort of toxic delusion and in a toxic cult to believe that Donald Trump has ever been, in any sense, emotionally, psychologically, intellectually, or ethically fit to be President of the United States,” he said, adding, “But his supporters are locked in on that.”

Costas then turned on Biden, slamming him for running in a second election against Trump.

Costas said Biden’s “hubris” is pushing him to run as a weak candidate rather than stepping aside and letting someone stronger run.

Continuing to describe the stakes, Costas said, “Or he could lose to Trump and subject the nation to four more years of this kind of ongoing insanity. Or if he squeaks by, it’s very likely that he cannot complete his second term.  He’d be 86 by the end of it.”

Smerconish followed up by asking if Biden’s not getting enough credit for his accomplishments while in office.

Costas replied that Biden is “getting some credit,” but noted, “He cannot make that case for himself.  He cannot make a clear, cogent, vigorous case for himself, nor can he prosecute the obvious case against Trump in the court of public opinion.”

Costas continued noting how Biden is weak, and that even his staff knows it, thus he should not be the man called out to vanquish Trump, who, he added, is a “monster.”

“His own staff knows that he has to be bubble-wrapped – that he can’t do a Super Bowl interview. It’s sad to say, Biden is obviously, on balance, a decent man. He’s served his country and no matter what, sane people will vote for him over Trump.  But it’s a hell of a risk to send this guy out there.”

“Trump is a monster.  You shouldn’t send this guy out there at this point in his life to try and slay the dragon,” Costas concluded.

Needless to say, Trump supporters excoriated Costas, ditto some Biden supporters.  But I include the comments in this column because I saw it, live, and he is indeed expressing, in a compelling fashion, how a large share of Americans feel about both candidates.

--President Biden’s doctor said he “continues to be fit for duty” after the 81-year-old underwent an annual physical at Walter Reed.

Dr. Kevin O’Connor wrote in a letter released Wednesday that a comprehensive assessment by a team of doctors revealed “no new concerns.”  He said Biden has been using a positive airway pressure machine at night for sleep apnea and that he had a root canal in June.

The doctor said that a detailed neurological exam showed no findings that would indicate any neurological disorders such as a stroke, multiple sclerosis or Parkinson’s disease.

The president did not take a cognitive test. [Person. Woman. Man. Camera. TV.]

--Fifteen people were killed and more than 40 injured after a fire ripped through an apartment building in eastern China, Nanjing city authorities said.  Electric bikes, stored on the first floor, were the cause, my view after reading the facts.

Electric bicycle caused fires in New York City last year led to 18 deaths.  I’m on the lookout for e-bikes in my own building and have never seen one, but if I did, I’d be a bit unhappy. 

--CDC Director Mandy Cohen endorsed a recommendation by the agency’s advisory committee that adults 65 and older receive an additional updated dose of the vaccine, as long as it has been at least four months since their last shot or three months since a Covid-19 infection.

“Most Covid-19 deaths and hospitalizations last year were among people 65 and older,” Cohen said in a statement.  “An additional vaccine dose can provide added protection that may have decreased over time for those at highest risk.”

Focus on those at “highest risk.”  You know who you are.

Separately, the CDC changed its longstanding guidance, saying that people who test positive for Covid-19 can return to work or regular activities if their symptoms are mild and improving and it’s been a day since they’ve had a fever.

--We note the passing of former Canadian prime minister Brian Mulroney, 84.  Mulroney led the center-right Progressive Conservatives to a historic win in 1984 over the Liberals of Pierre Trudeau, and quickly sought to emulate in Canada the conservative leanings of Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher, becoming a good friend of both.  He revamped the tax system, sold off government assets, and, with Reagan, finalized the Canada-United States Free Trade Agreement in 1988, along with a key treaty with the U.S. to curb acid rain. 

Mulroney was one of a kind, well-liked in America, especially by Reagan.  The two marked a 1985 summit with a public rendition of the song “When Irish Eyes Are Smiling.”

But Mulroney would suffer defeat on the contentious issue of Quebec, and he resigned in 1993 amid record low popularity numbers.  So low that the Progressive Conservative party was reduced to just two of 295 seats in the House of Commons in an election later that year – easily the biggest defeat in Canadian history.

Mulroney delivered eulogies at the funerals of both Reagan and George H.W. Bush.

--A wildfire spreading across the Texas Panhandle became the largest in state history Thursday, growing to nearly 1,700 square miles of scorched rural ranchlands and destroyed homes.

The Smokehouse Creek Fire merged with another blaze and early Thursday was just 3% contained, according to the Texas A&M Forest Service.

The fire’s explosive growth slowed as snow fell and winds and temperatures dipped, but it was still untamed and threatening more death and destruction.  It also crossed into Oklahoma.

While authorities don’t know what caused the fires, strong winds, dry grass and unseasonably warm temperatures fed the blazes.

Dry, windy conditions returned Friday, and critical fire conditions could reemerge Saturday and Sunday.

I just looked up Amarillo, as I wrote this up Thursday, and at noon it was 34 degrees. It was in the 80s Sunday and Monday (other parts of Texas in the 90s), fell to the 30s, Thursday, and it will be back up in the 70s Friday and the rest of the weekend.

--California has been receiving epic snows after a slow start to the snow season, as I discussed recently, including 7-10 feet (perhaps 12) this weekend in parts of the Sierra Nevada.  I always look at Truckee (Donner Pass) and some terrific webcams from there when they are in the midst of a storm. 

This is a treacherous, life-threatening blizzard, with wind gusts of 100- to 115-mph at higher elevations. A gust of 145 mph was recorded Thursday night at Palisades Tahoe at an elevation of 8,700 feet.  This was the site just last weekend of a men’s World Cup Alpine event.

Yosemite National Park closed through at least noon Sunday.  Visitors were told Thursday to leave as soon as possible.

Big Bear Mountain Resort, southern California, reported this week that it was the snowiest February on the mountain since at least 2000, and that was before this week’s storms.  Bear Mountain (peak elevation 8,850 feet) had received 8.25 feet in the month.

---

Pray for the men and women of our armed forces...and all the fallen.

Pray for Ukraine and the innocent in Gaza.

God bless America.

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Gold $2093
Oil $79.79

Bitcoin: $63,200 [4:00 PM ET, Friday]

Regular Gas: $3.33; Diesel: $4.06 [$3.35 / $4.40 yr. ago]

Returns for the week 2/26-3/1

Dow Jones  -0.1%  [39087]
S&P 500  +1.0%  [5137]
S&P MidCap  +1.8%
Russell 2000  +2.8%
Nasdaq  +1.7%  [16274]

Returns for the period 1/1/24-3/1/24

Dow Jones  +3.7%
S&P 500  +7.7%
S&P MidCap  +4.6%
Russell 2000  +2.3%
Nasdaq  +8.4%

Bulls 57.6
Bears 16.7 [Investors Intelligence]

Hang in there.

Brian Trumbore

 

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