Week in Review

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Week in Review

09/16/2023

For the week 9/11-9/15

[Posted 5:00 PM ET, Friday]

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Edition 1,274

President Biden was confused and pathetic in his press conference in Vietnam, which he stopped in to briefly after his G20 summit in New Delhi over the weekend.  Biden opened with “Remember the famous song, you know, ‘Good Morning, Vietnam’?”

Which of course was the title of a movie, not a song, let alone a comedy about a war.

And Biden told a rambling story about a John Wayne movie, quoting a line he has used before but no one can find the movie with the scene he describes.

And then he embarrassingly did what he always does, just follow a list of which reporters to call on, prepared by his staff, and inevitably saying at some point when he gets lost on the list, “I’m just following my orders here.”

The worst was when he protested that “I don’t want to contain China.  It’s about making sure the rules of the road – everything from airspace and – and space and in the ocean is – the international rules of the road are abided by.  And so I think that Prime Minister Xi – I mean, Xi has some – some difficulties right now.”

But he postulated that China’s sputtering economy would dampen the prospects of an invasion of Taiwan.

“I think China has a difficult economic problem right now for a whole range of reasons that relate to international growth and lack thereof and the policies that China has followed,” Biden told reporters.

“I don’t think it’s going to cause China to invade Taiwan; matter of fact, the opposite.  It probably didn’t have the same capacity that it had before.”

This is absurd.  I’ve argued for years that whether it’s the economy or other issues in China where the direction is not in Xi’s favor, he can call on the nationalism card to do just that…launch an invasion of Taiwan as a distraction for the people over their otherwise dismal lives.

At the end, Biden told reporters, “I tell you what, I don’t know about you, but I’m going to go to bed.”

There were other gaffes and lies and he was cut off by his press secretary.

As for the G20, the world leaders announced plans for a new rail and shipping corridor that would connect India and Europe through the Middle East, an ambitious proposal aimed at further connecting a volatile region and countering China’s years-long backing of massive infrastructure projects around the world.  Sounds great.  But we’ll all be dead before something like this comes to fruition, if ever.

More importantly was the message sent to Russia as a member of the G20 regarding its war in Ukraine.  It was a weak statement, declaring that “all states must refrain from the threat or use of force to seek territorial acquisition” and that “the use or threat of use of nuclear weapons is inadmissible.”  But it did not explicitly name Russia as the aggressor in the war, which last year’s conference did.

The leaders highlighted the “human suffering and negative added impacts of the war in Ukraine” on a range of issues including global food supply and energy security.  But in the dry language of diplomacy, the statement added, “There were different views and assessments of the situation.”

Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Oleg Nikolenko said the G20 has “nothing to be proud of” on the language over Russian aggression in Ukraine.

Neither China’s Xi, Russia’s Putin, nor Ukraine’s Zelensky were at the summit.  Xi and Putin sent aides, Zelensky wasn’t invited like he had been last year.

Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Tex) said on CNN’s “State of the Union” that the G20 statement on Ukraine was “a major departure from last year and a real slap in the face to Zelensky as they’re conducting the counteroffensive.”

GOP presidential candidate Nikki Haley called the statement a victory for Russia and China and criticized Biden for not pushing the G20 to stick to the tougher language.

“China is gloating, because they’re looking at Taiwan as this is happening, and it’s a shame,” Haley said.

David Ignatius / Washington Post…Ignatius a long-time confidant of Democratic presidents, thus the significance of this.

“Joe Biden launched his candidacy for president in 2019 with the words ‘we are in the battle for the soul of this nation.’  He was right. And though it wasn’t obvious at first to many Democrats, he was the best person to wage that fight.  He was a genial but also shrewd campaigner for the restoration of what legislators call ‘regular order.’

“Since then, Biden has had a remarkable string of wins.  He defeated President Donald Trump in the 2020 election; he led a Democratic rebuff of Trump’s acolytes in the 2022 midterms; his Justice Department has systematically prosecuted the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection that Trump championed and, now, through special counsel Jack Smith, the department is bringing Trump himself to justice….

“But I don’t think Biden and Vice President Harris should run for reelection.  It’s painful to say that, given my admiration for much of what they have accomplished.  But if he and Harris campaign together in 2024, I think Biden risks undoing his greatest achievement – which was stopping Trump.

“Biden wrote his political testament in his inaugural address: ‘When our days are through, our children and our children’s children will say of us; They gave their best, they did their duty, they healed a broken land.’  Mr. President, maybe this is that moment when duty has been served.

“Biden would carry two big liabilities into a 2024 campaign.  He would be 82 when he began a second term.  According to a recent Associated Press-NORC poll, 77 percent of the public, including 69 percent of Democrats, think he’s too old to be effective for four more years.  Biden’s age isn’t just a Fox News trope; it’s been the subject of dinner-table conversations across America this summer.

“Because of their concerns about Biden’s age, voters would sensibly focus on his presumptive running mate, Harris. She is less popular than Biden, with a 39.5 percent approval rating, according to polling website FiveThirtyEight. Harris has many laudable qualities, but the simple fact is that she has failed to gain traction in the country or even within her own party.

“Biden could encourage a more open vice-presidential selection process… But breaking up the ticket would be a free-for-all that could alienate Black women, a key constituency….

“Biden has never been good at saying no. He should have resisted the choice of Harris, who was a colleague of his beloved son Beau when they were both state attorneys general.  He should have blocked then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, which has done considerable damage to the island’s security.  He should have stopped his son Hunter from joining the board of a Ukrainian gas company and representing companies in China – and he certainly should have resisted Hunter’s attempts to impress clients by getting Dad on the phone.

“Biden has another chance to say no – to himself, this time – by withdrawing from the 2024 race.  It might not be in character for Biden, but it would be a wise choice for the country….

“Time is running out.  In a month or so, this decision will be cast in stone.  It will be too late for other Democrats, including Harris, to test themselves in primaries and see whether they have the stuff of presidential leadership. Right now, there’s no clear alternative to Biden – no screamingly obvious replacement waiting in the wings. That might be the decider for Biden, that there’s seemingly nobody else. But maybe he will trust in democracy to discover new leadership, ‘in the arena.’

“I hope Biden has this conversation with himself about whether to run, and that he levels with the country about it.  It would focus the 2024 campaign.  Who is the best person to stop Trump?  That was the question when Biden decided to run in 2019, and it’s still the essential test of a Democratic nominee today.”

Peggy Noonan / Wall Street Journal

“I don’t see what will change Mr. Biden’s mind about running.  You get the strong impression [Ed. in a new book on Biden’s first two years that was just released] that he likes the job and sees himself as a great man, indispensable, or at least the right man for the moment.

“Many in his party wish he would move on. They can’t make him, don’t have the power; it’s a fractured party broken in pieces, just like the Republicans. The old bosses – Tom Pendergast, Richard J. Daley – are long gone, with their smoke-filled rooms.  There are seasons when I miss them. This is one of them.”

I would add the 2024 Democratic National Convention is being held in Chicago.  Remember 1968?  I think there is a good possibility there is similar chaos.  What if Biden goes to the convention with 90% of the delegates but has deteriorated even further?  [The last part being a certainty.]

Meanwhile, we have the issue of a potential government shutdown end of the month. Following is an account from David Morgan of Reuters, Thursday:

“A visibly frustrated House Speaker Kevin McCarthy profanely goaded recalcitrant fellow Republicans in a standoff over federal spending, warning that ‘nobody wins’ if the government is forced to shut down.

“In a closed-door party meeting on Thursday, McCarthy directly addressed hardline critics who have been threatening to file a ‘motion to vacate’ challenge to his leadership unless spending for the fiscal year beginning Oct. 1 is cut to a level $120 billion lower than McCarthy and Democratic President Joe Biden agreed to in May.

“ ‘What Kevin just said right now…to that point: ‘If somebody wants to file a motion to vacate, file the f--king motion to vacate,’ and that’s it.  ‘And stop holding up everybody’s work,’ Rep. Brian Mast told reporters.

“Multiple Republican lawmakers described the exchange with McCarthy, who endured a grueling 15 votes to win the speakership in January, agreeing to changes including allowing just one lawmaker to call for a motion to vacate.”

McCarthy said: “When we come back [after the weekend], we’re not going to leave.  We’re going to get this one.  Nobody wins in a government shutdown.  I’ve been here.”

McCarthy didn’t talk about a short-term stopgap measure known as a continuing resolution emerging next week.

Republican leaders were forced to pull an $886 billion defense appropriations bill, due to demands from hardline conservatives who refuse to support spending without policy riders on issues such as border security and an assurance that overall spending will be cut to a 2022 level of $1.47 trillion.

As for the Senate, it overwhelmingly advanced its first package of spending bills, 91-7.

And the United Auto Workers and the Big Three automakers (the Detroit Three) failed to reach an agreement on a new contract for the nearly 150,000 UAW members across the country, and at 10:00 p.m. Thursday, UAW President Shawn Fain announced three locals – only one in Michigan – were selected to strike at midnight.  Those locals represent Ford’s Michigan Assembly Plant in Wayne, Stellantis’ Toledo Assembly Complex and General Motors’ Wentzville Assembly Center in Missouri.

General Motors’ last offer was 20% over four and a half years with a 10% bump in the first year.  Ford was also at 20% and Stellantis (Chrysler) came in at 17.5% over the life of the contract.

“Ford has bargained in good faith in an effort to avoid a strike, which could have wide-ranging consequences for our business and the economy,” Ford said in a statement Thursday night. 

Hourly employees would take home nearly 60% less on average with UAW strike pay than they would from working, Ford noted.  “And without vehicles in production, the profit-sharing checks that UAW workers could expect to receive early next year will also be decimated by a significant strike.”

The UAW is seeking a 40% pay hike, including an immediate 20% hike on ratification of a contract and 5% annual hikes.

The Detroit three blasted the UAW for not coming up with any genuine counteroffers, while in the case of Ford, for example, they made four counteroffers.

There were no negotiations today.  President Biden, who I told you last week said there would be no strike, issued a statement saying “record corporate profits” should lead to “record contracts” for the UAW, but that the profits have not been shared fairly with workers.

Well, the Big Three are losing $billions trying to ramp up government-mandated electric vehicle divisions, the same EV industry that requires fewer workers.

During a summer of labor unrest, Biden has touted his pro-labor policies by speaking out for unions, but the UAW is the only major union not to endorse his 2024 presential run and he’s flailing.  He needs their support in key states like Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Also, any eventual labor agreement is going to be inflationary.  Biden doesn’t need that.

Late this afternoon, UAW President Fain said all three automakers had received a “comprehensive counteroffer” and that negotiations would resume Saturday.

But as I go to post, the ‘knock-on’ effects of closing a few plants have started, with the Big Three announcing layoffs at other facilities.

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This Week in Ukraine….

--Russia launched an air attack on Kyiv early on Sunday, with blasts ringing out across the Ukrainian capital and its region for almost two hours.  Ukraine said it destroyed 25 out of 32 Russia-launched Iran-made Shahed drones.  No fatalities were reported.

--Two foreign aid workers were killed in eastern Ukraine on Sunday as Russian shelling hit a van carrying a team of four working with a Ukrainian nongovernmental organization.

The four volunteers from the Road to Relief group, which helps evacuate wounded people from front-line areas, were trapped inside the van as it flipped over and caught fire after being struck by shells.  The two killed were from Canada and Spain, with the two seriously wounded being from Germany and Sweden. 

The volunteers were on their way to assess the needs of civilians on the outskirts of Bakhmut, Road to Relief said.

--In an interview with the BBC Sunday, U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Mark Milley said Ukraine has little more than 30 days left of fighting before the weather hinders its counteroffensive.  Milley said colder conditions would make it much harder for Ukraine to maneuver.

He admitted the offensive had gone more slowly than expected.  But he said: “There’s still heavy fighting going on.  The Ukrainians are still plugging away with steady progress.”

Gen. Milley said it was too early to say whether the counteroffensive had failed, but said Ukraine was “progressing at a very steady pace through the Russian front lines.”

“There’s still a reasonable amount of time, probably about 30 to 45 days’ worth of fighting weather left, so the Ukrainians aren’t done.”

“I said at the very beginning of this [war] that this was going to be long, slow, hard, and high-casualty producing, and that’s exactly what it is,” Milley said.

In the same interview, Adm. Sir Tony Radakin, the UK chief of defense staff, said “Ukraine is winning and Russia is losing.”

“That is because the aim of Russia was to subjugate Ukraine and to put it under Russia’s control,” he said.  “That has not happened and it never will happen, and that’s why Ukraine is winning.”

Radakin claimed Ukraine had recovered 50% of the ground Russia seized.

--Ukraine said on Monday its troops had regained more territory on the eastern and southern fronts in the past week of its counteroffensive.  Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said in televised comments that Ukraine had retaken nearly 0.77 square mile of land around the eastern city of Bakhmut, captured by Russia in May after months of fighting.

I mean it’s amazing we are still talking about Bakhmut.

Maliar added Ukrainian troops have regained control of about 19 square miles near Bakhmut since the start of the counteroffensive in early June.

--It was reported Monday that the White House is considering sending Ukraine long-range missiles called ATACMS, which would mark a reversal of the Biden administration’s refusal to send the ground-launched munitions.  The missiles have a range of about 190 miles, and could threaten Russian supply lines as Ukrainian ground forces continue the slow work of advancing through dense minefields.

The U.S. might also send 45-mile range missiles, known as Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System munitions, that are “packed with cluster bombs,” officials told Reuters.  Regardless of which is chosen, “either option would be available for rapid shipment to Kyiv,” Reuters reports.  But, officials say the deal is not final.

--On Tuesday, Vladimir Putin said that Ukraine was only likely to start peace talks when it ran out of resources and would use any potential cessation of hostilities to rearm again with Western help.

Putin was speaking at an economic forum in Vladivostok, ahead of his meeting with Kim Jong Un.  He said that the Ukrainian army had so far failed in its counteroffensive and Ukraine had sustained heavy losses.

“I have the impression that they want to bite off as much as they can and then, when their resources are close to zero, to achieve a cessation of hostilities and start negotiations in order to replenish their resources and restore combat capability,” Putin said.

Asked if Russia need to introduce a new compulsory mobilization, Putin said that 1,000 – 1,500 Russians were signing voluntary contracts to join the military every day, and that over the past six or seven months, 270,000 people had signed voluntary contracts, he added.

--The Sevastopol Shipyard on the Crimean Peninsula was on fire early Wednesday and two ships were damaged after Ukraine launched 10 missiles and three speedboat attacks on the port, Russia’s defense ministry said.

Seven missiles were downed by Russia’s air defense systems and all three boats were destroyed by a patrol ship, the ministry said in a statement on Telegram.

“As a result of being hit by enemy cruise missiles, two ships under repair were damaged,” the ministry said.

At least 24 were injured, according to the Moscow-intalled governor of Sevastopol.

--Thursday, Ukraine struck Russian air defense systems near the town of Yevpatoriya in the west of Crimea in a long-range overnight attack, the Ukrainian military said.  Russia’s defense ministry said its air defenses had shot down 11 drones overnight over the peninsula.  It made no mention of damage.  A video circulating on social media showed powerful explosions and a plume of smoke rising in the night sky illuminated by a blaze.

--We learned Thursday that President Zelensky will meet President Biden at the White House next week after the UN General Assembly, and talk to congressional leaders.

--Friday, Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said Ukrainian forces had liberated the village of Adriivka, located about 6 miles south of Bakhmut.  In a terse message on Telegram, Maliar said, “It was difficult, and the situation changed very dynamically several times yesterday.”  Reuters described Andriivka as “devastated,” but that Ukrainian advances open a door for further progress south of Bakhmut.

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--As of early this week, Russia’s attacks on Ukrainian ports “have so far destroyed 280,000 tons of grain – enough to feed over 1 million people for a year, and more than the total Russia promised to donate to African countries,” according to the British foreign ministry, which called it “a brutal attempt to choke the Ukrainian economy.”

Separately, Ukraine claimed on Wednesday that more than 100 port infrastructure facilities have been damaged in Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports since July 18, with Ukraine’s grain exports falling by almost 3 million tons per month since then.

--On Tuesday, Vladimir Putin waded into the debate over the criminal charges faced by former President Donald Trump, saying the cases amount to political “persecution” and expose U.S. weakness.

“This shows the whole rottenness of the American political system, which cannot claim to teach others about democracy,” Putin said.  “What’s happening with Trump is a persecution of a political rival for political motives.”

Putin’s comments echo repeated statements made by Trump, who has also publicly criticized U.S. spending on Ukraine and military aid to the war-torn country.  Trump previously claimed that as president he would be able to resolve the war in one day by striking a deal with both sides.

Putin said he welcomed any such initiative.  But he said he didn’t expect any changes in relations between Russia and the U.S., regardless of who is president after November 2024.

--Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have banned vehicles with Russian license plates from entering their territory, a joint and coordinated move in line with a recent interpretation of the European Union’s sanctions against Moscow over its war on Ukraine.

Under the EU’s decision, motor vehicles registered in the Russian Federation are no longer allowed to enter the territory of the 27-member bloc, including the Baltic states, who are among the most vocal European critics of Russia and Vladimir Putin.

--The New York Post reported that a record number of Russians have fled their homeland and are seeking asylum in New York amid Putin’s war on Ukraine – adding to the Big Apple’s massive migrant crisis.

There were 3,098 cases involving Russian nationals in New York immigration court for the federal fiscal year covering Oct. 1, 2021 to Sept. 30, 2022.

As of Sunday, the number of asylum cases involving Russian nationals jumped to 8,002 for the current fiscal year.

Meanwhile, data shows there were only a few hundred cases of Russians in asylum/deportation proceedings going back every year to 2002.

Waves of Russians have been making their way to the Mexico-U.S. border seeking asylum – and have ended up in New York City, which has the largest Russia-speaking immigrant population, including many Jewish refugees, officials noted.

--Russia’s foreign ministry on Thursday declared two U.S. embassy staff ‘persona non grata’ and summoned Washington’s ambassador in Moscow, the RIA news agency reported.  The ministry said any U.S. embassy interference in its internal affairs would be suppressed.

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Wall Street and the Economy

We had key inflation figures for the month of August, the last big data points for the Federal Reserve prior to next week’s Open Market Committee gathering, where Chair Jerome Powell and Co. are expected to pause.

The consumer price index rose 0.6% on headline, 0.3% ex-food and energy, while for the 12 months, the CPI was up 3.7%, a tick higher than forecast, and 4.3% on core, in line with expectations.

So the CPI was up from July’s 3.2% on headline, but core was down from 4.7% prior.  Core, though, is still solidly over 4%, which is hardly the targeted 2%.  And the monthly core reading, 0.3%, was higher than the 0.2% of the prior two months, so that’s not good.

Rising gasoline prices were the big culprit for the headline reading rising as much as it did.

August producer prices rose a stronger than expected 0.7%, but in line at 0.2% ex-food and energy.  Year-over-year figures were 1.6% and 2.2%, core.

August retail sales were stronger than forecast, up 0.6%, ditto ex-autos.

August industrial production was up a stronger than expected 0.4%.

So nothing shocking and now we await the statement from the FOMC on Sept. 20, and Chair Powell’s remarks in his press conference as to guidance for the November meeting (Oct. 31-Nov. 1).  We know what he’s going to say: ‘The Fed found it appropriate to pause in September given the data is generally trending in the right direction, but the economy is still stronger than we anticipated and the FOMC will continue to monitor the data and let that guide policy going forward.’

You can also be sure that Powell, once again, will reiterate there are zero plans to cut rates in the foreseeable future.

The Fed will also be releasing a fresh set of economic projections next Wednesday.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow barometer for third-quarter growth is 4.9%.

Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is at 7.18%.

Europe and Asia

The European Central Bank raised interest rates for the 10th meeting in a row on Thursday to counter stubborn inflation but signaled that it is likely done tightening.

The central bank for the 20 countries using the euro lifted its deposit rate to 4% from 3.75%, taking it to an all-time high.  Markets now expect a lengthy pause, followed by rate cuts in the second half of next year.

“Based on its current assessment, the Governing Council considers that the key ECB interest rates have reached levels that, maintained for a sufficiently long duration, will make a substantial contribution to the timely return of inflation to the target,” the ECB said in a statement.

Inflation is now seen at 3.2% next year, while growth projections were cut to 0.7% for this year and 1.0% for 2024.  The ECB’s inflation target is still 2%.

Separately, Eurostat reported July industrial production in the eurozone was down 1.1% vs. June, and down 2.2% year-over-year.

Turning to Asia…China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported some good news amid signs the government’s stimulus initiatives may be bearing fruit.  August retail sales rose 4.6% year-over-year, while industrial production was up 4.5% Y/Y, both figures better than expected.  Fixed-asset investment year-to-date was up 3.2%, in line with forecasts.

The August unemployment rate ticked down to 5.2%.

August inflation was 0.1% vs. a year earlier, better than the -0.3% reading in July.  August producer prices fell 3.0% Y/Y vs. -4.4% prior.

Japan saw August producer prices rise 3.2% year-over-year vs. 3.4% in July.

July industrial production fell 2.3% Y/Y.

Street Bytes

--Stocks barely finished mixed, thanks to the Dow Jones’ 0.1% gain to 34618.  Otherwise, the major indices were down, with the S&P 500 off 0.2% and Nasdaq down 0.4%.  Rising energy and interest rates were no help.

--Speaking of energy, oil, as measured by West Texas Intermediate, closed the week at $91.12, the highest since last November.  Diesel, $4.54, continues to surge and that’s not good, to beat a dead horse on this front.

--Billionaire investor Ken Griffin, founder of hedge fund Citadel, said on Thursday that he has some doubts about the continuity of the markets rally and is concerned about the U.S. fiscal situation.

“I’m a bit anxious that this rally can continue,” he said in an interview on CNBC. “I like to believe that this rally has legs.  I’m a bit anxious. We’re sort of in the seventh or eighth inning of this rally, but part of it has been the soft landing story.”

Griffin said it is unclear when Fed chair Powell will be able to cut rates because of some ongoing stimulus measures.  “He’s showing up in a fight with both of his hands tied behind his back because D.C. is just on a different agenda than he is.  He’s trying to prudently slow the economy, bring inflation back down and really engineer the whole soft landing.”

--U.S. Treasury Yields

6-mo. 5.51%  2-yr. 5.04%  10-yr. 4.33%  30-yr. 4.42%

The yield on the key 10-year is one tick shy of its closing weekly high of 4.34%, a critical level technically.  The 2-year is just below its cycle high of 5.08%.  If they were to bust through both levels after Chair Powell’s comments next Wednesday, that would not be a good sign for equities, for starters.

--BP CEO Bernard Looney, 53, is stepping down after failing to fully disclose to the company board some of his past relationships with colleagues.  CFO Murray Auchincloss will take the top job on an interim basis.

Looney’s exit caps a tumultuous three years leading BP in its most radical strategy shift since John Browne transformed the company into a transatlantic giant by buying U.S. rivals Amoco and Atlantic Richfield Co. more than two decades earlier.  From the North Sea to West Texas, Looney pushed BP into greener territory, with big bets on hydrogen and offshore wind.  Without the architect of that pivot, the company’s direction is now in question.

Investors were lukewarm over Looney’s approach.  But the war in Ukraine gave Looney a reprieve.  Oil prices soared, lifting profits at BP and other supermajors to record levels. And Looney rowed back on some of BP’s green commitments, saying it would cut oil and gas output more slowly than previously promised.

--Shares of Arm, the British chip designer, began trading on the Nasdaq stock exchange on Thursday in the year’s biggest initial public offering.  And with investors, tech executives, bankers  and start-up founders watching closely for how it performed, they liked what they saw.

Arm’s shares went public at $51, opened trading at $56, and closed the first day at $63.59, giving the company a fully diluted valuation of $67.9 billion.  [Friday’s close was $60.50.]

So good news for other companies waiting in the wings to go public like grocery delivery start-up Instacart.

After the IPO, Softbank Group owns 90% of the shares, having originally purchased Arm for $36 billion in 2016.  A deal to sell the company to Nvidia for $40 billion in cash and stock collapsed in 2022 after stiff regulatory opposition.

--Apple enacted its long-awaited iPhone price increase with as much subtlety as possible, part of an effort to wring more money from consumers without triggering sticker shock.

On Tuesday, the company boosted the price of just one iPhone model – the top-end Pro Max, which climbs by $100 to $1,199 – while leaving the other three new versions unchanged.  And even the now-costlier new phone will come with twice as much storage, letting Apple argue that it wasn’t really a price increase at all.

The new lineup includes iPhone 15 starting at $799 and iPhone 15 Plus starting at $899.  For the Pro series, prices start at $999 and the aforementioned Pro Max at $1,199.  All models are slated to be available Sept. 22.

Apple also showed off a new Series 9 Watch with a feature called “double tap” where users tap thumb and finger together twice, without touching the watch, in order to perform tasks like answering a phone call, thus freeing up the other hand for other tasks like walking a dog or holding a cup of coffee, or beer.

CEO Tim Cook said Apple is “on track” to ship its Vision Pro mixed-reality headset early next year. 

While Apple is introducing new features and products, the iPhone made up more than half of Apple’s $394.3 billion in sales last year.  The global smartphone market has slumped from shipping 294.5 million total phones to 268 million in the second quarter, but Apple’s shipments declined the least of any major smartphone maker, dropping from 46.5 million to 45.3 million phones, according to data from Counterpoint Research.

But wait…there’s more!

France ordered a halt to sales of the iPhone 12 due to breaches of radiation exposure limits.  However, there seemed to be no prospect of an EU-wide ban as the European Commission said it would wait for feedback from other EU countries before deciding on any action.

Apple contests the French findings, saying the iPhone 12 – now a relatively old model launched in 2020 – was certified by multiple international bodies as compliant with radiation standards.  According to the World Health Organization, no adverse health effects have been established as being caused by the use of mobile phones in general.

Apple shares closed the week at $175, down from its July 19 high of $198, but way up from the Dec. 30 close of $129.

--American Airlines and Spirit Airlines lowered their third-quarter profit expectations amid higher-than-anticipated fuel costs, a week after other airlines flagged concerns about more expensive jet fuel.

American now estimates adjusted earnings of roughly $0.20 to $0.30 per share for the ongoing three-month period, down from its previous guidance range of $0.85 to $0.95, it said in a regulatory filing Wednesday. 

Additionally, a new agreement with the Allied Pilots Association resulted in roughly $230 million in retroactive pay expenses, which will drag down adjusted EPS by $0.23.

The shares fell nearly 6% in response.

Spirit offered similar negative commentary and its shares fell 6%.

Last week, Southwest, United and Alaska Air raised their fuel costs outlooks for the quarter.

Thursday, Delta Air Lines reduced its third-quarter guidance for EPS due to higher fuel and maintenance costs but said it expects revenue to be within the upper half of its prior outlook range.

The carrier now expects earnings in the range of $1.85 to $2.05, compared with a prior range of $2.20 to $2.50, according to a filing with the SEC.

--TSA checkpoint numbers vs. 2019

9/14…105 percent of 2019 levels
9/13…98
9/12…99
9/11…100
9/10…103
9/9…106
9/8…96
9/7…93

--Oracle saw its shares plunge nearly 14% on Tuesday after the company projected current-quarter revenue below Wall Street targets and narrowly missed expectations for the first fiscal quarter as a tough economy pressured cloud spending by businesses.

After a surge in cloud demand during the pandemic, businesses are rethinking their digitization plans, hurting Oracle as it plays catch-up in a segment dominated by larger rivals such as Amazon Web Services and Microsoft.  Still, analysts have said that the rise in adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) applications could boost Oracle’s cloud infrastructure business because the advances made in its networking technology are more suited to take on AI workloads.

The company forecast second-quarter revenue growth of between 5% and 7%, lower than analysts’ average estimate of 8.2%.  It also expects adjusted profit between $1.30 and $1.34 per share, compared with expectations of $1.33.  Revenue for the first quarter stood at $12.45 billion, up 9% but slightly below estimates. 

Ex-items, the company earned $1.19 per share, compared with estimates of $1.15, and higher than the $1.03 of a year earlier.

--Salesforce Inc., the top maker of customer relations software, is hiring 3,300 people across departments, marking a new investment after it eliminated 10% of its workforce (8,000) in a restructuring earlier this year.

“Our job is to grow the company and to continue to achieve great margins,” CEO Marc Benioff said Thursday in an interview at the company’s annual conference in San Francisco.  “We know we have to hire thousands of people.”

The company is betting that interest in artificial intelligence will fuel a new cycle of tech investment, particularly in its data cloud product, which helps customers organize information from multiple sources.

--An advisory panel to the Food and Drug Administration agreed unanimously on Tuesday that a common decongestant ingredient used in many over-the-counter cold medicines is ineffective.

The panel’s vote tees up a likely decision by the agency on whether to essentially ban the ingredient, phenylephrine, which would result in pulling products containing it from store shelves.

Research concluded in several studies that the ingredient was useless and no better than a placebo.

Among the products containing the ingredient are Sudafed Sinus Congestion, Tylenol Cold & Flu Severe, NyQuil Severe Cold & Flu, Theraflu Severe Cold Relief, and Mucinex Sinus Max.

If the agency decides the decongestant should be eliminated from products, it could significantly disrupt the market for the makers of cold medicines if they do not have enough time to replace it in popular items.

That said, there is a comment period and the FDA may give drug companies a grace period to swap ingredients in products, if required.

I was disappointed to see the ingredient in question is in Alka-Seltzer Plus Cold Medicine, which I swear by and take anytime I begin to get a scratchy throat and it has worked…for decades.

But as Tony Soprano would have said, ‘Whaddya gonna do…’

--Shares in 3M Co. fell nearly 6% on Wednesday after the industrial conglomerate warned of “a slow growth environment” in 2024 and forecast weakness in its electronics and consumer segments for the current and following quarter.

The company said current-quarter sales are expected to come in between $7 billion and $8 billion, compared with its previous guidance of $8 billion, due to a slow recovery in China.

“The consumer has shifted spending from discretionary to staples and other experimental   activities,” 3M CFO Monish Patolawala said.  3M had raised its full-year profit forecast in July and exceeded second-quarter earnings estimates by offsetting high raw material and labor costs by hiking prices. The company has also said it is seeing a significant drop in U.S. retailer inventories as spending on consumer electronics has dropped off due to inflation and higher borrowing rates.

The dour outlook comes as the company grapples with the fallout from lawsuits related to its Combat Arms earplugs and water pollution claims tied to “forever chemicals.”

--MGM Resorts International said late Monday that its resorts “are currently operational” after reporting earlier that a “cybersecurity issue” was affecting some of the company’s systems.

The casino operator said on X that its resorts’ dining, entertainment and gaming “continue to deliver the experiences for which MGM is known” and that its “guests remain able to access their hotel rooms.”

MGM was hacked by the same group of attackers that breached Caesars Entertainment Inc. weeks earlier.  The hackers demanded a ransom from MGM, according to reports.  It wasn’t clear how much ransom was requested or if the hackers deployed ransomware to lock up the company’s files.

Caesars reportedly paid out a ransom of $15 million, according to a regulatory filing, after the hackers threatened to release the company’s data.  They first breached an outside IT vendor before gaining access to the company’s network.

Caesars said it discovered that the attacker acquired a copy of data including driver’s license numbers and social security numbers for “a significant number” of members of its loyalty program.  There is no evidence that passwords, payment or bank account information was accessed, Caesars said.

MGM declined to respond to questions about its attack, and as of Thursday, the website was still down and computerized gaming was impacted.

The hackers, known as Scattered Spider, or UNC3944, is composed of hackers who are based in the U.S. and UK, some as young as 19 years old. The group has targeted telecommunications and business process outsourcing companies to pull off SIM swaps of phone numbers that can then be used in phishing attacks to steal data from victim systems and extort a ransom.

Charles Carmakal, chief technical officer for Mandiant Inc., part of Google Cloud, described the hackers as “incredibly effective social engineers.”

--Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer on Wednesday said that while regulations on artificial intelligence were certainly needed, they should not be made “too fast.”

U.S. lawmakers want safeguards against potentially dangerous deepfakes such as bogus videos, election interference and attacks on critical infrastructure.

“If you go too fast, you can ruin things,” Schumer told reporters after organizing a closed-door AI forum bringing together lawmakers and tech CEOs.  The European Union went “too fast,” Schumer added.

Among those attending were Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg, and Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai.  Schumer told reporters there was a consensus on the need for AI regulation.

--A lithium deposit discovered in a volcanic crater along the Nevada-Oregon border may hold up to 40 million metric tons of the rare metal – possibly the largest ever in the world, which could have a massive impact on the electric vehicle industry, according to a new study.

The deposit hidden within the McDermitt Caldera is estimated to hold between 20 million and 40 million metric tons, which would be nearly double the current record of about 23 million metric tons found over the summer beneath a Bolivian salt flat, researchers reported in Science Advances.

It would also greatly boost America’s overall lithium reserves, which were previously estimated at a paltry 1 million metric tons.

Nevada itself has been a hotbed for lithium deposits, but the sites have faced opposition, with conservationists, indigenous Americans and even NASA pushing to block mining in the area.

Why NASA?  It seems the undisturbed standing at the tabletop flat is key to calibrating the measurements of hundreds of satellites orbiting the Earth.

--There have been major issues in the wind power industry in the U.S., as the big players are struggling to produce profits and might walk away altogether.

Barron’s reported that Danish company Orsted, the global leader in offshore wind development, says it expects to write down the value of its U.S. projects by up to $860 million, due to higher costs driven by an inadequate supply chain, high interest rates, and insufficient federal subsidies.  In addition, the Biden administration attempted to auction off leases to add offshore wind turbines in the Gulf of Mexico last week but only attracted two bidders and sold a single lease on one of three parcels.

In the past year, several offshore wind projects along the East Coast have been delayed, and in some instances, developers have backed out of contracts that they had signed with utilities to provide power to residents.

Orsted says it’s facing supplier delays at multiple projects, including Ocean Wind 1 in New Jersey, Sunrise Wind in New York, and Revolution Wind off Rhode Island and New York.

Bottom line, the government is going to have to offer greater incentives if the projects are to happen.

--Josh Zumbrun of the Wall Street Journal had an extensive piece on food date labels and expiration dates, as in “Expiration dates on our food…are downright destructive.”

“Food experts broadly agree that the expiration dates on every box of crackers, can of beans and bag of apples waste money, squander perfectly good food, needlessly clog landfills, spew methane and contribute to climate change.”

There is no regulation and the dates do nothing to keep us safe.

Martin Wiedmann, a professor of food safety and food science at Cornell University, says, “For many foods, we could completely do away with it.”

Food manufacturers have tried to explain that the dates are mostly general indicators of when food is at its peak quality.  Most foods, properly stored, remain edible and safe long after their peak.

Yes, expiration, or ‘use by’ dates are important for items such as meat from the deli counter.

But, “U.S. consumers are wildly confused about the labels’ intent.  In a 2019 paper, researchers at Johns Hopkins University and Harvard University found 84% of consumers threw out food at the package date ‘at least occasionally’ while 37% did so always or usually, though that wasn’t what most labels recommended.  Over half thought date labeling was federally regulated, or were unsure. An earlier study found that 54% of people thought eating food past a sell-by date was unsafe.”

Wiedmann advises you to ignore “best by” dates and just set your refrigerator no higher than 37 degrees.  Keeping food too warm is a real safety risk that has nothing to do with an expiration date.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture has estimated that 31% of the available food supply goes uneaten: Retailers discard 43 billion pounds of food annually, consumers a further 90 billion.

Such figures have led the U.K.’s largest supermarket chains to dump expiration dates entirely on hundreds of items, especially produce.  A U.K. charity funded in part by the country’s Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, found that as a result, household food waste in U.K. landfills was 18% lower in 2018 than in 2007.

--Speaking of food, J.M. Smucker Co. is acquiring Hostess Brands for about $5.6 billion, or $34.25 a share for Hostess, representing a 50% premium to the stock’s closing price on Aug. 24, which was the last trading day before reports broke about the possibility of a deal.

Smucker, famous for jams and jellies, takes on Hostess, maker of Twinkies, which has been through two Chapter 11 bankruptcies.  Sales topped $1.3 billion in 2022 and the stock price has more than doubled in the past five years.

Personally, I’ve never been a Twinkies fan.  Nope, I’m a Funny Bones guy (best frozen), and I was thinking for my last meal (not that I ever expect to be on death row), it would be a bacon/Swiss Cheeseburger and Funny Bones.

Funny Bones are made by Drake’s (owned by McKee Foods), the maker also of Yodels, my second favorite.  Drake’s distributes Ring Dings and Devil Dogs as well.

Basically, what I’m sayin’ is that Drake’s has a superior product line to Hostess.

Foreign Affairs

China/Taiwan: Beijing unveiled a “new path towards integrated development” with Taiwan, including proposals to make it easier for Taiwanese people to live, study and work in China.

At the same time, it sent the largest number of warships to gather in years to the waters on Taiwan’s east, in what analysts said signaled a choice between peaceful “reunification” and military violence, just months out from Taiwan’s presidential election.

The new measures, released by the ruling Communist Party’s Central Committee and the State Council on Tuesday said the coastal province of Fujian would become a “demonstration zone” for integrated development.

The 21 measures include facilitating Taiwanese people to live in Fujian and access social services, expanding enrollment of Taiwanese students in Fujian schools, and deepening industrial cooperation.

“The move is aimed at deepening cross-strait integrated development in all fields and advancing the peaceful reunification of the motherland,” said official state media outlet, China Daily.

The Global Times, a hawkish state-backed news outlet, described the document as “equivalent to outlining the future development blueprint of Taiwan island.”

Xi Jinping says he wants “reunification” with Taiwan without war, although he has said he is prepared to use force.  The integration plan coincided with the massing of Chinese warships in the western Pacific for what appeared to be big military exercises.

On Monday, the People’s Liberation Army sent a carrier strike group past Taiwan’s southern tip into the western Pacific Ocean, led by the aircraft carrier Shandong.  At just 60 nautical miles off Taiwan’s southernmost coast, it was the closest the warship had come to the island (13 ships in all in the group, accompanies by 26 PLA warplanes).

On Tuesday, Japan’s defense ministry detected two flotillas of eight warships sailing through the Miyako Strait south of Okinawa, on a course that analysts said could converge with the Shandong-led group.  Another 36 war plane sorties were detected on Wednesday morning, Taiwan’s defense ministry said. If the groups converge, according to Su Tzu-yun, an analyst at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, it would form the largest ever maneuvers seen involving a Chinese aircraft carrier.  [Financial Times]

A senior military analyst in Taiwan, General Huang Wen-chi, told media on Tuesday the Shandong “undoubtedly poses a new threat.”

And yet Chinese authorities have made no announcement about the exercises, at least as of Wednesday.

Taiwan’s presidential election is in January, and Beijing’s influence campaign will be intense until then.  It is most opposed to a victory by the ruling Democratic Progressive party (DPP), which is the most strident in asserting Taiwan’s status as a sovereign nation.  Current vice president William Lai is leading in the polls.

So China will continue with its dual messaging.  A peaceful integration plan coupled with extensive military exercises.

Back to Fujian, many of you know of my catastrophic investment in the province, despite doing extensive due diligence that involved multiple trips there to see firsthand how the company was doing.  One of the keys to my investment was that the new plant was at a port facility that represented the closest point from the mainland to Taiwan and Taipei.

But this was in friendlier times, when cross-Straits business was booming and political tensions were nowhere near the level of today.  Alas, it all blew up on me, impacting my life forever, but giving me a unique insight into issues over there which I attempt to pass on to you, dear readers.

In other developments, President Biden said he met with Chinese President Xi Jinping’s No. 2, Premier Li Qiang, at the G20 in New Delhi.

But at next week’s UN General Assembly, an event that was expected to be attended by top diplomat Wang Yi, instead it will be Chinese Vice-President Han Zheng.

Russia’s foreign ministry said on Wednesday that Wang would visit Moscow on Monday for talks with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov.

Han could be preparing the ground for President Xi’s possible attendance at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in San Francisco in November, as well as a potential meeting with President Biden on the sidelines of the summit.

Lastly, Chinese Defense Minister LI Shangfu was taken away last week by authorities for questioning, the Wall Street Journal reported Friday, with U.S. officials saying he is being removed from his post.  Li hasn’t made a public appearance since late August.

The move is seen as part of Xi’s ongoing attempt to shake up the People’s Liberation Army, with anticorruption purges and structural reforms.

North Korea: Kim Jong Un made his way to Vladivostok and a little summit with Vladimir Putin, Kim calling relations with Russia his top priority and pledging full support to Putin and his government.

The message between the two was clear.  The two international outcasts backed each other to the hilt, in a rebuff to efforts by the U.S. and its allies to isolate Putin over his invasion of Ukraine and Kim over his pursuit of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles.

Putin took Kim on a tour of the Vostochny Cosmodrome, a key Russian spaceport, before they held two hours of talks, most likely focused on arms and food deals.  Russia needs ammunition.  Kim needs food and other aid to boost North Korea’s dire economy, along with satellite and missile technology.

According to Russian media, and the Washington Post, it was one helluva dinner the two shared: duck salad, crab dumplings, fish soup, sturgeon with mushroom and a berry dessert.  Yum yum.

“Russia is now rising to the sacred struggle to defend its state sovereignty and protect its security,” Kim told Putin, according to remarks released in a video by the Kremlin.  “We have always supported and stand by all decisions of President Putin and the Russian government.  I hope that we will always stand together in the fight against imperialism.”

Putin heralded 75 years of diplomatic relations between the two countries and stressed the need for economic cooperation: “It was our country that was the first to recognize the sovereign, independent state of the DPRK.”

When Putin greeted Kim at the cosmodrome, he asked Kim, “Did you have a good journey?”  Kim said in return, “Thank you for inviting us despite your busy schedule.”  Kim Yo Jong, Kim’s sister and closest confidante, accompanied him.

Kim said his visit “is a clear expression of how our party and government put a high value on the strategic importance of DPRK-Russia relations.”

North Korea fired two suspected ballistic missiles toward the sea off its East coast, the South Korean military said Wednesday.  Japanese media reported the missiles fell outside Japanese waters.

Pentagon spokesman Pat Ryder told reporters on Monday: “We remain concerned that North Korea is contemplating providing any type of ammunition or materiel support to Russia, in support of their war against Ukraine.”

We then learned Thursday that Kim invited Putin to visit Pyongyang, further stoking concerns that a revived alliance could bolster Russia’s military and provide Kim sensitive missile technology.  Putin accepted the invite, according to the North Korean state news agency.

Friday, Kim toured an aircraft factory on a trip that has lasted a bit longer than some had anticipated.

Meanwhile, the bulletproof train that Kim traveled on to Vladivostok is known to rattle along at a speed of just 31 mph because of its heavy armored protection.  By contrast, Japan’s Shinkansen bullet trains can hit 200 mph.

But some who have traveled on the train talk of seeing live lobsters being transported to it to ensure the availability of fresh delicacies, while cases of red wine from Bordeaux and Burgundy were flown in from Paris.  A former Russian diplomat wrote in 2019 that he recalled dishes considered delicacies such as donkey meat and abalones being flown in from Pyongyang.  Russian vodka was also a fixture, ditto performers and singers entertaining guests aboard the train.

Vietnam: While the United States and Vietnam have nurtured their relationship in recent years and months, a Ministry of Finance document, obtained by the New York Times, contents verified by former and current Vietnamese officials, “lays out how Vietnam proposes to modernize its military by secretly paying for defense purchases from Russia through transfers at a joint Vietnamese and Russia oil venture in Siberia.”  This would be in contravention of American sanctions.

“For Vietnam, the idea makes a certain sense.  Once one of the world’s top 10 arms importers, Vietnam has long been dependent on Russian weaponry.  The United States’ vow to punish nations that buy Russian weapons has roiled Vietnam’s plans to revamp its military and create a tougher deterrent to Chinese encroachment on its maritime borders in the South China Sea.” [Hannah Beech / NY Times]

Vietnam has refused to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine at the United Nations, and it voted against suspending Russia from the body’s Human Rights Council. 

But Washington continues to try to pull Hanoi out of Russia’s orbit.  Vietnam watchers expect Xi Jinping and perhaps Vladimir Putin to visit Vietnam this year, even after President Biden’s stop in the country.  It’s a balancing act.

Morocco: Back in 2007, long-time readers know I was looking to go to Iran but the government, through the Pakistani embassy in Washington (which is how you got a visa back then) turned me down and, literally, I didn’t get my passport back until the day I was flying out.

I had a flight booked from Paris to Tehran, after staying in Paris a few days on either end of the planned trip, so I called Air France the day before, having been told by Pakistan they were expressing my passport back to me for Saturday delivery, and asked Air France to pick a spot where I hadn’t been before and we came up with Morocco.  [The Iranians never refunded my hotel, by the way, the bastards.]

So off I went to Casablanca and while there, I hired out a driver one day to take me to Marrakech.  It was a long, boring drive, until we got there, and I loved walking around the historic section and the big market.  It’s there I took one of my favorite photos, where a guy slings a snake around your neck and you get your picture with him as he poses over you in a most threatening manner.  Granted, you have to have a certain kind of sense of humor, but I loved it, a lasting memory. 

And so I noted with sadness this week’s disaster, and knowing how isolated the villages are around Marrakech, in the High Atlas, a rugged mountain range, how devastating and catastrophic last weekend’s earthquake was there.  Luckily, some key historic sites in Marrakech survived, while others didn’t.  Tourism is everything and greatly needed for a recovery.  The World Bank and IMF were to have meetings there next month, with thousands of attendees.  Morocco said the event will go on.

But as the death toll neared 3,000 as I go to post, it was unbelievable that the Moroccan government didn’t accept aid offers except from a small number of nations, specifically Spain, Britain, the UAE and Qatar.

The issue was so many of the homes in the region are made of mud bricks, and in the rubble there was little hope for survivors.

The government, though, compounded matters. They said they turned down aid from the likes of the United States, Tunisia, Turkey, Germany, Italy and France – a former colonial power of Morocco, because they didn’t want a chaotic situation with dozens of countries and aid organizations arriving to help.  But then you saw how tens of thousands in the region were then suffering from a lack of food and water, and heavy equipment.  Moroccan law also criminalizes criticism of the king.

So our thoughts and prayers to the people there, whose lives were turned upside down in a matter of seconds.

Libya: Ditto to the awful tragedy that transpired here.  A powerful storm caused massive flooding in the eastern Libyan city of Derna, where the death toll in the general region is a staggering 11,000, and could be as high as 20,000, the city and surrounding villages literally washed into the Mediterranean as two key dams collapsed, sending their waters rushing into the area.  [There are reports of a 22-foot wall of water crashing into Derna.]

The floods collapsed and washed away thousands of homes and here, like in Morocco, the initial relief response was virtually non-existent, largely because Libya is a divided nation these days, East and West, with different governments.  The West recognizes the government in western Libya, in Tripoli, but the disaster was in the east, under the control of Osama Hamad.  We learned at week’s end that all maintenance on the two key dams had stopped in 2011!  All the critical roads and bridges into the affected area were destroyed.

The main area of concern received nine months’ worth of rain in hours.

Bodies are now washing up all over the shores of the area.  Disease is a real issue.

Iran: The Biden administration has issued a waiver for banks to transfer $6 billion in frozen Iranian oil funds without fear of U.S. sanction – a key step in securing the release of five American citizens detained in Iran, as first reported by the Associated Press.  As a part of the arrangement, the administration will release five Iranian citizens detained in the U.S.

While the move is welcomed by the U.S. prisoners’ families and supporters, it is coming under harsh criticism from Republicans in Congress opposed to any agreement that allows for the release of frozen Iranian funds.

The administration says the money being transferred from South Korea to Qatar is limited to the purchase of humanitarian goods like food or medicine.

Now if you believe that, you probably also believe the Aaron Rodgers-less Jets still have a shot at the Super Bowl.

Republican Rep. Michael McCaul (Tex.), the top Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said the unfreezing of funds “creates a direct incentive for America’s adversaries to conduct future hostage-taking.”

It’s unclear when the two sides will complete the prisoner transfer.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi will be in New York next week for the UN General Assembly.

This weekend (Sept. 16) marks the first anniversary of the death of Mahsa Amini in morality police custody, which led to massive anti-government protests that spiraled into the biggest show of opposition to Iranian authorities in years.  Over 500 people, including 71 minors, were killed, hundreds injured, and thousands arrested in the unrest that was eventually crushed by security forces.

Israel: The Supreme Court on Tuesday opened the first case to look at the legality of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s contentious judicial overhaul – deepening a showdown with the far-right government that has bitterly divided the nation and put it on the brink of a constitutional crisis.

In a sign of the case’s significance, all 15 of the court’s justices are examining it together, the first time a full complement has assembled in Israel’s history.  Normally, a regular panel consisting of three justices does the main work, though they sometimes sit on expanded panels.  The proceedings are being livestreamed.

Proponents of Netanyahu’s plan say the country’s unelected judiciary, led by the Supreme Court, wields too much power.

Critics say the plan to weaken the Supreme Court removes a key safeguard and will concentrate power in the hands of Netanyahu and his allies.

So, the senior justices are in the unprecedented position of deciding whether to accept limits on their own power.

I have no idea as to what kind of timetable there is for any rulings.

Netanyahu is going to meet President Biden in New York at the aforementioned General Assembly.

Random Musings

--Presidential approval ratings….

Gallup: 42% approve of President Biden’s job performance, 53% disapprove; 39% of independents approve (Aug. 1-23).

Rasmussen: 47% approve, 52% disapprove (Sept. 15).

--In a new Reuters/Ipsos national poll, Biden’s approval rating edged up to 42%, its highest level since March, 52% disapprove.

--An Emerson College poll of Iowa Republican caucus voters showed Donald Trump at 49%, a drop from 62% in May.  But Ron DeSantis’ and Mike Pence’s numbers also dropped from May; DeSantis from 20% to 14%, Pence from 5% to 3%.

Vivek Ramaswamy and Tim Scott both rose 5%, Ramaswamy from 2% to 7%, Scott from 3% to 8%.

Nikki Haley went from 5% to 7%, Doug Burgum from 1% to 3%.

Among Democratic caucus goers, President Biden dropped from 69% in May to 50%, while Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped from 11% to 9%, and Marianne Williamson from 10% to 7%.

--House Speaker Kevin McCarthy directed House committees to open a formal impeachment inquiry against President Biden in response to his alleged involvement in his son Hunter Biden’s foreign business deals.

“House Republicans have uncovered serious but credible allegations into President Biden’s conduct.  Taken together, these allegations paint a picture of a culture of corruption,” McCarthy said at the Capitol when he announced the launch of the investigatory step.

“Through our investigation, we have found that President Biden did lie to the American people about his own knowledge of his family’s foreign business dealings,” the speaker charged.  “Eyewitnesses have testified that the president joined on multiple phone calls and had multiple interactions.  Dinners resulted in cars and millions of dollars into his son’s and his son’s business partners.”

President Biden, at a campaign event in Virginia on Wednesday, said House Republicans opened the impeachment inquiry against him because “they want to shut down the government.”

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“It isn’t clear whether Mr. McCarthy will ask the House to vote on a formal inquiry, but he should.  That would put Members on record. Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi had tried to dodge such a vote, but she later relented under criticism from Republicans.

“It won’t be an easy vote for many Members, even if this is only an inquiry. The press is already calling this a drive to impeach, and the history of these investigations is that they gain an inevitable momentum that makes an actual impeachment vote likely.  For now the GOP hasn’t even written a formal resolution of inquiry with specific charges. The 18 House Republicans in districts won by Mr. Biden in 2020 will be especially cross-pressured.

“The risk for the House GOP is if voters in these swing districts conclude that impeachment is merely one more exercise in partisan score-settling.  That’s what voters concluded about Mrs. Pelosi’s first impeachment, and the Senate easily acquitted Mr. Trump.  These swing districts will determine who holds the majority in 2024, not the safe GOP seats of Marjorie Taylor Greene or Bob Good.

“Short of proof that Mr. Biden personally received checks from foreigners, there’s no chance the Senate would convict the President even if the House impeaches him.  Meantime, Democrats will argue that Republicans are focusing on impeachment rather than on policies that will make life better for voters.

“That message will be reinforced if House Republicans fall into the trap of taking responsibility for shutting down the government.  On their present course, that is what the Freedom Caucus faction of the House GOP seems determined to do….

“Congress is in danger of turning the serious sanction of impeachment into the new censure – a statement of rebuke rather than a threat of removal. Republicans will need evidence of genuine corruption by Mr. Biden if they want to convince a majority of Americans that he should be removed from office with an election coming in 2024.”

In a recent CNN poll, 61% of Americans thought President Biden was involved in his son’s business dealings in Ukraine and China, 38% saying he wasn’t.

And speaking of Hunter, he was criminally charged on Thursday, after efforts to reach a plea deal failed, leading to the first ever prosecution of a sitting president’s child.  The indictment was filed on Thursday in U.S. District Court in Delaware and consisted of three criminal counts related to gun possession. This comes after David Weiss was elevated to special counsel after a deal for Hunter to plead guilty to two misdemeanor tax charges and enroll in a program to avoid prosecution on a gun-related charge collapsed in a stunning July hearing.

--Republican South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem by all accounts is at the top of Donald Trump’s list of potential running mates.  Last Friday in Rapid City, S.D., the state GOP rally was headlined by Trump, with Noem saying as she introduced him, “You made America great again once, let’s do it again.”

“He has my full and complete endorsement for president of the United States of America. I will do everything I can to help him win and save this country,” she added, before Trump took the stage.

“Kristi, I am truly honored to receive your endorsement. Very much so,” said Trump.

When asked earlier during an interview with Newsmax if she would consider a theoretical opportunity to be Trump’s running mate, Noem responded, “Oh, absolutely.”

In his comments to the rally crowd, Trump went to his old playbook; that he was the sole bulwark keeping America from falling into ruin.

“They’re just destroying our country,” Trump said.  “And if we don’t take it back – if we don’t take it back in ’24, I really believe we’re not going to have a country left.”

“I’m being indicted for you,” Trump added.  “That’s not part of the job description, but I’m being indicted for you.”

Oh, gee, thank you, Mr. Trump.  [Channeling Eddie Haskell.]

--Meanwhile, a Georgia judge shut down the effort by Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis to have all 19 defendants, including the former president, to be tried together in October in the Georgia election subversion case.

Fulton County Superior Court Judge Scott McAfee announced Thursday that Trump and 16 co-defendants will move forward on their own schedule, with a trial date yet to be announced.

The two remaining co-defendants, Kenneth Chesebro and Sidney Powell, sought speedy trials and are scheduled to begin in October.

The order is a victory for Trump and the other 16.

--Utah Republican Sen. Mitt Romney announced Wednesday that he will not run for reelection to the Senate and called for a “new generation of leaders” as he criticized both President Biden and former President Trump.

In a video message, Romney outlined a range of what he described as critical issues, including rising national debt and the climate crisis, and said “neither President Biden nor former President Trump are leading their party to confront those issues.”

“At the end of another term, I’d be in my mid-80s,” Romney, who is 76, said.  “Frankly, it’s time for a new generation of leaders.  They’re the ones that need to make the decisions that will shape the world they will be living in.”

“While I’m not running for re-election, I’m not retiring from the fight,” Romney said.  “I’ll be your United States Senator until January of 2025.”

Separately, in comments to reporters, Romney made some stark declarations: “It’s pretty clear that the party is inclined to a populist demagogue message.”

A man who a decade ago was his party’s choice for president said his party has made its choice – and that the choice is demagoguery.

Romney told author McKay Coppins, who is writing a forthcoming book on Romney: “A very large portion of my party really doesn’t believe in the Constitution.”

Former president Trump celebrated the news that Romney would not seek reelection.

“FANTASTIC NEWS FOR AMERICA, THE GREAT STATE OF UTAH, & FOR THE REPUBLICAN PARTY. MITT ROMNEY, SOMETIMES REFERRED TO AS PIERRE DELECTO, WILL NOT BE SEEKING A SECOND TERM IN THE U.S. SENATE, WHERE HE DID NOT SERVE WITH DISTINCTION.  A BIG PRIMARY FIGHT AGAINST HIM WAS IN THE OFFING, BUT NOW THAT WILL NOT BE NECESSARY.  CONGRATS TO ALL. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”

I just bit my tongue straight through.

--New York Mayor Eric Adams said Tuesday that he hasn’t spoken to President Biden in months – further exposing the apparent widening rift between the pair as the Big Apple and nation reel from the migrant crisis.

“I haven’t communicated with him [Biden] since earlier this year,” said Adams – who has become increasingly vocal against the president’s handling of the border – on WABC-TV’s ‘Eyewitness News Morning.’

The Dem mayor said he only spoke on Monday with a member of Biden’s administration – the president’s chief of staff, Jeff Zients, who New York Gov. Kathy Hochul was shoved off on during her trip to Washington, D.C., last month.

Adams has been ratcheting up his attacks on Biden while demanding the Feds provide more funding, work visas, and shelter sites so the city can better grapple with the tens of thousands of asylum seekers flooding the Big Apple.

The price tag for Gotham to handle the flood of migrants is expected to reach $12 billion by 2025 – and help result in up to 15% in cuts in city agency spending by next spring.

The Feds have only allocated just under $150 million for New York City to deal with migrants.

--The U.S. Food and Drug Administration gave the green light Monday to updated Covid-19 vaccines from Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech amid rising cases and hospitalizations.

Both vaccine manufacturers have said testing shows that their vaccines are effective against EG.5, the currently dominant strain in the United States.

Health officials are urging people to get vaccinated as soon as the shots are available.

--King Charles III has been on the throne for over a year now and a Wall Street Journal piece noted that he is surprisingly popular, with 62% of Britons having a positive opinion of him, according to a YouGov survey at the end of August, down from 70% around his mother’s funeral, but far higher than when he was heir in waiting.  A steady two-thirds of the British population want to keep the monarchy, a number that has remained largely unchanged for years.

“Some people feared he would be a campaigning monarch, and he isn’t that,” says Vernon Bogdanor, a constitutional expert at King’s College London.  “The very fact there is no news is good news.”

--In marking this past Monday’s anniversary of 9/11, and in honoring the 343 firefighters who perished that day, the FDNY Uniformed Firefighters Association said in a press conference days before that 341 FDNY members have now died of Ground Zero-related illnesses.

Very sad.

--NASA announced Thursday that it has appointed its first-ever director of UFOs to lead experts who’ve yet to see proof of alien spacecraft – but still have no idea what a number of mysterious flying objects actually are.

The space agency admitted the ongoing mystery while releasing findings from a yearlong independent study into reported sightings of what are now formally referred to as “unidentified anomalous phenomena,” or UAP.

“The top takeaway from the study is that there is a lot more to learn,” NASA Administrator Bill Nelson said, declaring his desire to take the conversation “from sensationalism to science.”

“The NASA independent study team did not find any evidence that UAP have an extraterrestrial origin. But we don’t know what these UAP are,” Nelson added.

--Lastly, congratulations to Yoda, a 4-year-old Belgian Malinois dog who serves with the U.S. Border Patrol’s Tactical K9 unit and was drafted in to help track down escaped killer Daniel Cavalcante outside Philadelphia.

When it became apparent Cavalcante was in some heavy brush, hundreds of police and FBI agents closing in, Yoda was sent in to grab him.  Mission accomplished as Cavalcante wasn’t able to fire off a shot from his high-tech stolen rifle.

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Pray for the men and women of our armed forces…and all the fallen.

Pray for Ukraine.

God bless America.

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Gold $1944
Oil $91.12

Regular Gas: $3.86; Diesel: $4.54 [$3.69 / $4.98 yr. ago]

Returns for the week 9/11-9/15

Dow Jones  +0.1%  [34618]
S&P 500  -0.2%  [4450]
S&P MidCap  -0.3%
Russell 2000  -0.2%
Nasdaq  -0.4%  [13708]

Returns for the period 1/1/23-9/15/23

Dow Jones  +4.4%
S&P 500  +15.9%
S&P MidCap  +5.6%
Russell 2000  +4.9%
Nasdaq +31.0%

Bulls 49.3
Bears 21.9…no update

Hang in there.

Brian Trumbore

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