Week in Review

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Week in Review

10/07/2023

For the week 10/2-10/6

[Posted 5:00 PM ET, Friday]

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Edition 1,277

Congress narrowly averted a government shutdown on Saturday with just hours to spare as the House, in a stunning turnabout, approved a stopgap plan to keep the federal government open into mid-November and the Senate then cleared it, 88-9 (all nine “no” votes coming from the GOP), and President Biden signed it late Saturday night.

The passage capped off a dramatic day on Capitol Hill that started with the government appearing headed for a near-certain shutdown.  Instead, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who had vowed for weeks he didn’t need Democratic help on a spending solution, brought forward a temporary patch that could pass only with substantial help.

The plan keeps money flowing to government agencies and provides $billions for disaster recovery efforts, but it doesn’t impose any of the spending cuts or changes to border security that his hardline colleagues had called for.

The bill also did not include money for Ukraine despite a push for it by the Pentagon, White House and members of both parties of the Senate, but House Democrats embraced the plan anyway to avoid a widespread government disruption.  The House passed the measure 335 to 91, with more Democrats than Republicans supporting it.  [Ninety Republicans voted against.]

And thus, McCarthy put his job at serious risk, facing ongoing threats from the far-right in his party, vowing to move to oust him.

“Every single Democrat in the House, except for one, voted for Kevin McCarthy’s ploy to continue Nancy Pelosi’s budget and Joe Biden’s policies,” Rep. Matthew Rosendale (R-Mont.) wrote on X. “Are we sure Hakeem Jefferies is not the Speaker?”

That was a common sentiment on the Republican side of the aisle.

On the other hand, Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), speaking of his fellow Republicans, said: “It’s a clown show.   You keep running lunatics, you’re going to be in this position.”

One of whom, Rep. Matt Gaetz, went on multiple media outlets Sunday saying he would file a “motion to vacate,” a call for a vote to remove McCarthy as speaker.  “I am relentless and I will continue to pursue this objective.”

“I’ll survive,” McCarthy said on CBS.  “This is personal with Gaetz.”  McCarthy added: “You know what? If I have to risk my job for standing up for the American public, I will do that.”

Well, McCarthy did not survive, as for the first time the chamber removed its leader from a position that is second in line to the president after the vice president. 

The vote was 216-210, with eight Republicans voting against the speaker.  All Democrats present voted as a bloc against him.

[For the record, the eight were Reps. Andy Biggs (Ariz.), Ken Buck (Colo.), Tim Burchett (Tenn.), Elijah Crane (Ariz.), Matt Gaetz (Fla.), Bob Good (Va.), Nancy Mace (S.C.) and Matt Rosendale (Mont.)]

A vote to replace McCarthy will apparently be held next Wednesday or Thursday, with Steve Scalise, the No. 2 Republican, and Jim Jordan, a leading antagonist of President Biden, announcing they will seek the post.  Other candidates could join in in what will likely be a lengthy and messy battle to fill the post.

Thursday night, though, Donald Trump endorsed Jordan.

“He [Jordan] is STRONG on Crime, Borders, our Military/Vets, & 2nd Amendment.  Jim, his wife, Polly, & family are outstanding – He will be a GREAT Speaker of the House, & has my Complete & Total Endorsement!” Trump said in part on Truth Social.

This follows earlier news that Trump might agree to replace McCarthy for a short time.

Nothing is getting done in the House until a speaker is selected, and now we have a new shutdown deadline of November 17.

Some speak of Kevin McCarthy as a man of character, but the bottom line is he condemned Donald Trump’s behavior on Jan. 6, 2021, and days later bent the knee at Mar-a-Lago.  That is not a profile in courage.

As for the Republican conference, as one GOP lawmaker told the Washington Post, “It’s a clusterf---.”

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“A band of eight Republicans succeeded in ousting Kevin McCarthy as House Speaker on Tuesday, and we trust they’re happy.  They now have the chaos they wanted, though it isn’t clear what else they hope to achieve.  Their clever plan seems to be to cut off their own heads….

“The ouster captures the degraded state of the Republican Party in this era of rage.  Members in safe seats can fuel their own fund-raising and careers by claiming to ‘fight’ against all and sundry without doing the hard work to accomplish what they claim to be fighting for.  Mr. Gaetz is the prototype of this modern performance artist, as he raises money for a potential run for Florida Governor….

“Meanwhile, the House is essentially frozen.  The putative GOP majority is weaker, and its ability to gain any policy victories has been undermined.  Oversight of the Biden Administration will slow or stop.  Republicans in swing districts who are vulnerable in 2024 will be especially wary of trusting the Gaetz faction, and regaining any unity of purpose will be that much harder.  The crazy left and right are cheering, but no one else is.”

Last week I wrote of the chaos surrounding the possible government shutdown:

“And China will seize on the narrative that its centralized governance model is better than the American democratic system,” later bringing up China’s latest disinformation campaign, “which a shutdown enhances.”

Peter Baker / New York Times

“There was a time, not that long ago, when the United States presumed to teach the world how it was done. When it held itself up as a model of a stable, predictable democracy.  When it sent idealistic young avatars to distant parts of the globe to impart the American way.

“These days, to many watching at home and abroad, the American way no longer seems to offer a case study in effective representative democracy.  Instead, it has become an example of disarray and discord, one that rewards extremism, challenges norms and threatens to divide a polarized country even further….

“The American public has been sour on the country for a remarkably long stretch.  The last time a majority of Americans reported being satisfied ‘with the way things are going in the United States’ in the Gallup surveys was January 2004, nearly two decades ago.

“That has taken a toll on American institutions.  Fewer than half of Americans express confidence in the police, the medical system, organized religions, the Supreme Court, banks, public schools, the presidency, large technology companies, organized labor, the media, the criminal justice system, big business or Congress, according to Gallup, which last year recorded significant declines in 11 of the 16 institutions it tracks.  Only small business and the military drew more than 50 percent support.”

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In 2020, Joe Biden promised he would not build another foot of border wall if elected.  His administration then passed a proclamation soon after taking office that said building a wall across the southern border “is not a serious policy solution.”

Wednesday, the administration announced it would build a section of border wall in southern Texas in an effort to stop rising levels of immigration.  Around 20 miles will be built in Starr County along its border with Mexico, where officials report high numbers of crossings.

The U.S. Customs and Border Protection defended the latest move, saying it was using funds already allocated for a border barrier.

More than 245,000 crossings have been made this year, government data shows, and September is expected to be a record month.

New York City Mayor Eric Adams predicted the cost of housing the more than 100,000 new arrivals since last year to Gotham will rise to $12 billion over the next three years.

At the same time the administration was announcing it would build some wall, it also resumed the deportation of migrants to Venezuela in a bid to deter those hoping to escape the country.  Flights will resume in the coming days.  Thousands of Venezuelans have journeyed through Panama in order to reach the American-Mexico border.

Of course, President Biden has long said there was no crisis at the border.  What his staff now belatedly sees is a crisis come November 2024 over this issue, a huge plus for Republicans on the campaign trail.

One more…remember when the president told us there would be no auto workers strike?  That was three weeks ago.  The UAW’s strike fund paying workers about $500 a week will run out at some point, and the workers’ profit-sharing bonuses for the year are increasingly at risk.

As in I expect next week to hear of some disgruntlement among union members voiced toward their boss, Shawn Fain.

However…late today, Fain said there had been significant progress in negotiations, touting General Motors for placing battery manufacturing under the UAW’s National Master Agreement, while Fain said Ford had raised its wage proposal to 23% from 9% originally offered, and Stellantis and Ford agreed to reinstate cost-of-living allowances.

But…no agreement, and the strike continues.

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This Week in Ukraine….

--President Biden on Sunday pressed congressional Republicans to back a bill to provide more aid to Ukraine, saying he was “sick and tired” of the political brinkmanship that nearly led to a government shutdown.  The bill, which funds the government through Nov. 17, did not include aid for Kyiv.

“We cannot under any circumstances allow America’s support for Ukraine to be interrupted. I fully expect the speaker to keep his commitment to secure the passage and support needed to help Ukraine as they defend themselves against aggression and brutality,” Biden told reporters at the White House.

--Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin welcomed the 45-day continuing resolution from lawmakers, but he “urged Congress to get back to regular order on appropriations…in order to advance our National Defense strategy and position our military to meet the complex challenges of this century,” he said in a statement Saturday.

Austin also asked Congress “to live up to America’s commitment to provide urgently needed assistance to the people of Ukraine as they fight to defend their own country against the forces of tyranny.  “America must live up to its word and continue to lead,” Austin said.

“I want to assure our American allies and the American people and the people of Ukraine that you can count on our support,” Biden said.  And to lawmakers, he said, “Stop playing games.  Get this done.”

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said: “We don’t feel that the U.S. support has been shattered, because the United States understands that what is at stake in Ukraine is much bigger than just Ukraine.”

--The Pentagon has more than $5 billion remaining in its coffers to provide weaponry and other security assistance to Ukraine even after Congress declined to include more funding for the war.

The $5.2 billion is roughly equivalent to the value of the weaponry the Biden administration has sent to Ukraine over the last six months, but administration officials said it is unclear how long that money could last.  Some believe the $5.2 billion could last only for another few months.

The sum is roughly 12% of the total $43.9 billion in security assistance that the U.S. has sent since Russia’s February 2022 invasion.

But another pot of money the U.S. has been using for a longer-term program to refurbish Ukraine’s military and make it more compatible with NATO forces, the Ukraine Security Assistance initiative, is empty, administration officials said.

What’s more, an account used to replenish the Defense Department’s own arsenal after the provision of U.S. arms to Ukraine is now down to about $1.6 billion – insufficient to keep the Pentagon whole, officials said.

The Biden administration has sought another $24 billion in Ukraine funding.

But now we have a leaderless House of Representatives, for another week or so, and a new Reuters/Ipsos survey of American voters reveals a notable erosion in support for giving U.S. weapons to Ukraine.  In May, 46% of respondents were in favor; this week, that number declined to 41%.  Similarly, “Some 52% of Democrats backed arming Ukraine in the most recent poll, down from 61% in May,” whereas: “Among Republicans, support for sending weapons to Kyiv fell to 35% from 39% in May.”

--The UK said it is considering troops to Ukraine one day, but not anytime soon, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak clarified on Sunday after his new Defense Secretary Grant Shapps, in an interview with the Telegraph, said British officials were discussing sending military trainers inside Ukraine.

“That’s something for the long term, not the here and now,” Sunak told reporters.  “There are no British soldiers that will be sent to fight in the current conflict… What the defense secretary was saying was that it might well be possible one day in the future for us to do some of that training in Ukraine,” Sunak said.

Well, Russia ran with it and amplified the remarks, saying this proved rumors of an imminent third world war.

--In a video message, Vladimir Putin said Russia is defending its “sovereignty” and “spiritual values” by waging war in Ukraine.

The speech came a year after Putin signed documents to illegally annex four Ukrainian regions in Europe’s biggest land grab since World War II.

“We are defending Russia itself, are fighting together for the Motherland, for our sovereignty, spiritual values and unity, for victory,” Putin said.

Kremlin forces control only parts of the four regions, whose combined area is roughly the size of Bulgaria.

Sham referendums were held in the Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Luhansk and Kherson regions a year ago to annex them, drawing condemnation from the United Nations and Ukraine’s allies, and aren’t recognized internationally.

--Ukraine’s parliament and its speaker taunted billionaire Elon Musk on Monday after he posted a meme on X mocking President Zelensky’s pleas for wartime assistance from the West.

Musk owns SpaceX, which provides Starlink satellite communication services that are vital for Ukraine’s defense effort, but he has often made statements that angered Kyiv.

Early on Monday, Musk posted a meme showing Zelensky and the caption: “When it’s been 5 minutes and you haven’t asked for a billion dollars in aid.”

The speaker of Ukraine’s parliament, Ruslan Stefanchuk, hit out at Musk with his own post on X.

“The case when…(Elon Musk) tried to conquer space, but something went wrong and in 5 minutes he was up to his eyeballs in shit,” an apparent reference to SpaceX’s failed rocket launch in April.

Ukraine’s parliament, on its official page on X, accused Musk of spreading Russian propaganda, posting its own version of the meme with a picture of Musk and the caption: “When it’s been 5 minutes and you haven’t spread Russian propaganda.”

Ukrainian officials criticized Musk earlier in the war for suggesting that they should consider giving up land for peace, a position that Kyiv has staunchly rejected.

--Russia launched another round of heavy drone attacks on Ukraine, as more cargo ships loaded in Ukrainian ports in defiance of Moscow’s attempted blockade and the European Union’s top diplomat said arms supplies to Kyiv should be accelerated.

Ukraine said it shot down 16 of 30 explosive drones launched by Russia in the early hours of Sunday, a day after intercepting 30 of 40 drones fired at central and southern Ukraine, with ports on the Black Sea and the Danube River and grain silos being targeted again.

“Overnight, the enemy massively attacked our Cherkasy region with strike drones.  Unfortunately, there were hits on industrial infrastructure in the city of Uman,” said the governor of the province in central Ukraine.

Russia has been launching almost nightly drone and missile attacks on grain silos and port infrastructure in Black Sea cities such as Odesa and Mykolaiv, and in the smaller Danube River ports of Izmail and Reni, since withdrawing in July from an agreement to safeguard shipments of Ukrainian grain to world markets.

--Ukraine’s navy then said on Wednesday that 12 more cargo vessels were ready to enter a fledgling Black Sea shipping corridor on their way to Ukrainian ports, as Kyiv steps up a push to defy a de-facto Russian blockade on its vital sea exports.

Ukraine’s defense forces said they were doing everything to ensure the safety of civilian ships in their territorial waters and that they were proceeding into the waters of Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey, all NATO member countries.

--The Wall Street Journal’s Thomas Grove and Jared Malsin reported Wednesday that “Russia has withdrawn the bulk of its Black Sea Fleet from its main base in occupied Crimea, a potent acknowledgment of how Ukrainian missile and drone strikes are challenging Moscow’s hold on the peninsula.

“Russia has moved powerful vessels including three attack submarines and two frigates from Sevastopol to other ports in Russia and Crimea that offer better protection.”

A big setback for Vladimir Putin.  And as the Journal writes, “the logistical headache of relocating some of Russia’s heaviest ships underscores the threat of Kyiv’s strike capabilities.”

--Ukraine carried out a drone attack on the western Russian region of Belgorod overnight and hit an S-400 air defense complex and its radar, a source in the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) told Reuters on Wednesday.  Russia’s defense ministry said earlier on Wednesday that it had downed 31 drones launched by Kyiv overnight over the regions of Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk, but reported no casualties or damage. 

But the SBU pointed to videos posted online by Russian nationals showing what it said were 20 explosions at the location of the air defense system and its radar near the city of Belgorod.

--Thursday, at least 50 people were killed in a Russian cruise missile strike that hit a café and shop near the eastern city of Kupiansk.

President Zelensky, who was on a visit to Spain to attend a summit of the European Political Community, said the attack was “a demonstrably brutal Russian crime – a rocket attack on an ordinary grocery store, a completely deliberate terrorist attack.”

“Russian terror must be stopped. Anyone who helps Russia circumvent sanctions is a criminal.  Everyone who still supports Russia is supporting evil.”

Zelensky also warned European leaders that Russia could rebuild its military capabilities and attack other countries within five years if the continent were to waver in its support for Kyiv.

--President Putin reiterated his position that Russia did not start the war in Ukraine but launched what it calls a “special military operation” to try to stop it.

In his yearly speech to the Valdai Discussion Club, being held in Sochi, Putin said Russia, the world’s largest country by area, had no need to take territory from Ukraine. He said the conflict was not therefore imperial or territorial but about the global order, and that the West, which had lost its hegemonic power and always needed an enemy, had lost touch with reality.

Also on Thursday, Putin said that Russia had successfully tested a potent new strategic missile and declined to rule out the possibility it could carry out weapons tests involving nuclear explosions for the first time in more than three decades.

Putin said for the first time that Moscow had successfully tested the Burevestnik, a nuclear-powered and nuclear-capable cruise missile with a potential range of many thousands of miles.  Putin also told his audience that Russia had almost completed work on its Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile system, another key element of its new generation of nuclear weapons.

Military analysts say a resumption of nuclear testing by Russia, the United States or both would be profoundly destabilizing at a time when tensions between the two countries are greater than at any time in the past 60 years.

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Wall Street and the Economy

Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr said Monday at a forum in New York that the Fed’s Open Market Committee is in a position where it can move cautiously, shifting the focus to how long interest rates should remain elevated.

“In my view, the most important question at this point is not whether an additional rate increase is needed this year or not, but rather how long we will need to hold rates at a sufficiently restrictive level to achieve our goals,” Barr said.  “I expect it will take some time.”

Barr is a permanent voting member on the FOMC.

Among other comments this week was that of Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic (non-voter this year) who said: “I am not in a hurry to raise, not in a hurry to reduce either.  (The) Fed should be on hold for a long time.”

Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester (non-voter) said one more interest rate increase may be needed this year.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly (non-voter) told an audience in New York Thursday that Fed policy is “well into” restrictive territory and there has been a lot of progress toward 2% inflation, but that progress “isn’t victory.”

On a related topic, the Wall Street Journal had the headline this week under a piece by Greg Ip, “Rising Interest Rates Mean Deficits Finally Matter.”

Greg Ip:

“The federal deficit was over 7% of gross domestic product in fiscal 2023, after adjusting for accounting distortions related to student debt, Barclays analysts noted last week.  That’s larger than any deficit since 1930 outside of wars and recessions.  And this is occurring at a time of low unemployment and strong economic growth, suggesting that in normal times, ‘deficits may be much higher,’ Barclays added.”

So with all the above in mind, today we had a much stronger than expected jobs report for September, nonfarm payrolls surging 336,000 when 160,000 was expected, with August revised upward to 227,000 from 187,000.  The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8%, and average hourly earnings rose 0.2%, 4.2% year-over-year, both figures a tick lower than forecast.

Not exactly what some Fed officials were looking for on the jobs front and the bond market initially swooned, the yield on the 10-year Treasury soaring from Thursday’s close of 4.72% to 4.88%.  But then the market focused on the average hourly earnings figure, and it not being a negative surprise, bonds, and stocks, rallied.

In other data, the September ISM manufacturing reading was a little better than forecast, 49.0 (50 the dividing line between growth and contraction), while the service sector reading was inline, 53.6.

August construction spending was solid, 0.5% (and much better than expected), and factory orders in the month also beat forecasts, 1.2%.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow barometer for third-quarter growth is still 4.9%.

Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has surged to 7.49%, up 18 basis points on the week and the highest level since 2000!

Lastly, one topic that doesn’t go away is commercial real estate, $1.5 trillion of debt, according to Morgan Stanley, that is due before the end of 2025.  Refinancing it won’t be easy, particularly the roughly 25% of commercial property that is office buildings.  Bloomberg notes that a Green State index of commercial property prices has already fallen 16% from its peak in March 2022.

About two-thirds of the 919 respondents surveyed by Bloomberg believe that the U.S. office market will only rebound after a severe collapse.  An even greater majority says that U.S. commercial real estate prices won’t bottom until the second half of 2024 or later.

Europe and Asia

S&P Global reported on the PMI readings for September in the Eurozone.

The manufacturing PMI was 43.4, down a tick from 43.5 in August, the fifteenth successive month under 50, contraction.  The services reading was 48.7, up from August’s 47.9.

Germany: mfg. 39.6, 50.3 services
France: mfg. 44.2 (40-mo. low), 44.4 services
Italy: mfg. 46.8, 49.9 services
Spain: mfg. 47.7, 50.5 services
Ireland: mfg. 49.6, 54.5 services
Netherlands: mfg. 43.6 (40-mo. low)
Greece: mfg. 50.3

UK: mfg. 44.3, 49.3 services

Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia / Hamburg Commercial Bank

“Given the HCOB Eurozone PMI for services perked up in September, you may be tempted to spot a few green shoots popping up.  Not so fast.  For starters, the index is still in contractionary territory. Even glancing at Germany and Spain, where the index moved above 50, this happened only marginally, indicating more of a standstill in these parts of the euro area.  Then you have the second largest economy of the eurozone, France, where business activity is not just dipping, but nose-diving, signaling a deeper economic downturn.”

Eurostat reported on euro area unemployment for August, 6.4%, down from 6.7% a year ago.

Germany 3.0%, France 7.3%, Italy 7.3%, Spain 11.5%, Ireland 4.1%, Netherlands 3.6%.

Eurostat also reported August producer prices for the euro area rose 0.6% over July, but were down 11.5% year-over-year.

Retail sales in August were down 1.2% vs. July, down 2.1% Y/Y.

Turning to Asia…China’s official government PMI readings for September were 50.2 vs. 49.7 for manufacturing, the first expansion in six months; the service sector reading was 51.7 vs. 51.0.

Caixin’s private manufacturing PMI was 50.6, down a little from 51.0 prior, while services was 50.2 vs. 51.8.  All in all, it’s still too early to call a turnaround here. 

China was off this week for its national holiday, its stock market closed.

The World Bank cut its growth forecast for China in 2024, from 4.8% to 4.4%, because of elevated debt levels and a moribund property sector, led by China Evergrande, the world’s most indebted property developer with more than $300 billion in debt.  The company is still struggling to work out a restructuring plan with its creditors.

Japan’s September manufacturing PMI was 48.5 vs. 49.6 prior, services 53.8 vs. 54.3 in August.

A reading on August household spending fell 2.5% year-over-year, though this was much better than expected.  This key metric for Japan rose 3.9% over July.

South Korea’s September manufacturing PMI was 49.9, while Taiwan’s reading was 46.4.

Street Bytes

--The market had a rough start as on Tuesday, it was shocked by a much stronger than expected job openings figure (JOLTS) reading for August from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 9.61 million when the figure was supposed to 8.75m.  Stocks had their worst day since March, and the yield on the 10-year soared.  But then markets calmed down, until today’s fireworks.

In the end, for a second straight week the major averages finished mixed; the Dow Jones down 0.3% to 33407, but the S&P snapped a four-week losing streak, up 0.5%, and Nasdaq gained  1.6%.

--U.S. Treasury Yields

6-mo. 5.58%  2-yr. 5.08%  10-yr. 4.79%  30-yr. 4.96%

What a week…from 4.58% to 4.88% on the 10-year before closing at 4.79%, still up 21 basis points since last Friday.

Key inflation data next week…the CPI.

--Saudi Arabia and Russia on Wednesday said they were continuing voluntary oil cuts to year end as tightening supply and rising demand support prices, but then crude suffered its worst drop in a year, with West Texas Intermediate cratering 5.6% to $84.22, and then further to close the week at $82.83, lowest level since August.

Turns out ‘rising demand,’ at least for one week, turned into falling demand and fears of a hard landing.

Saudi Arabia’s energy ministry said in a statement: “This voluntary cut decision will be reviewed next month to consider deepening the cut or increasing production.”

The cause of the swoon was largely about government data showing that storage tanks are filling up with gasoline, an indication people are pumping less of it into their cars.

Gasoline futures have collapsed from $2.70 a gallon to $2.20 in just three weeks, so expect a nice break at the pump in the coming weeks if this level holds.

Ironically, Exxon Mobil said Wednesday that big increases in oil and gas prices would lift third-quarter earnings by between $1.1 billion and $1.9 billion, compared with the second quarter, which came in at $7.9 billion.

But the shares fell nearly 4% due to tumbling crude prices Wednesday.  Exxon shares had hit a record high of $120 last week.  They closed today at $107.

Separately, Exxon is in advanced talks to acquire Pioneer Natural Resources in a deal that could value the Permian shale basin producer at about $60 billion, according to reports.

This is an old, long-rumored story, but maybe this time it comes to fruition.

Lastly, the New York Times had a headline Thursday, “Diesel Prices Could Keep Inflation High.”  Just like I’ve been warning for months.  Diesel only fell two cents this week, while the average price for gas at the pump dropped 9 cents.

--We had third-quarter auto sales this week:

General Motors and Toyota Motor posted double-digit gains in U.S. new car sales for the just-ended quarter even as Stellantis sales fell short, evidence the market is still healthy heading into the final months of the year.

GM’s sales rose 21% in the third quarter to 674,336 vehicles, pushing up its total deliveries this year by 19%.  The automaker’s biggest, most profitable models sold briskly, with deliveries of its GMC Sierra pickup rising 46% and Chevrolet Silverado up 22%.

Stellantis, owner of the Jeep and Ram brands, saw its sales drop 1% from the same period last year.  Its prized Jeep SUV brand suffered a 4% decline, its ninth quarterly drop, while the Ram truck brand saw deliveries slip 4%.

Ford on Wednesday posted a near 8% rise for Q3, driven by continued demand for crossover SUVs and pickup trucks.  The automaker notched quarterly sales of 500,504 vehicles, up from 464,674 a year earlier.

American buyers have been swayed in part by attractive financing options and trade-in deals on new vehicles. 

Overall, U.S. new vehicle sales in September were 1.33 million units, with an annual sales rate of 15.67 million, according to data released by Wards Intelligence on Tuesday, up from 13.6 million a year ago.

But sales of models made in factories targeted by a UAW strike are already starting to drop.

Toyota’s sales in the three-month period climbed 12% to 590,296, powered by a 14% gain in September.  A hybrid gas-electric version of the RAV4 – made up 31% of sales last month, the company said. 

Honda Motor Co., Nissan and Hyundai also posted strong gains for the quarter.  Honda’s third-quarter deliveries soared 53% to 339,143 vehicles, led by its top-selling CR-V compact SUV and Civic compact sedan.  Nissan’s sales surged 41% to 216,878.  Hyundai’s grew 9% to 200,534 – with a 16% jump in September alone.

--Separately, Ford said it made its seventh and strongest offer to the UAW since Aug. 29.  Ford has received two comprehensive counteroffers from the UAW, the last on Sept. 25.  Ford’s latest offer “provides our 57,000 UAW-represented employees with a record contract and a strong future,” the company said.  The offer includes unprecedented improvements in wages (putting employees among the top 25% of all U.S. jobs, hourly and salaried) and benefits, product commitments for every UAW factory and job security.  At the same time, it preserves Ford’s ability to invest and grow.

GM then announced on Thursday it had made its sixth counteroffer to the UAW.  And you saw Shawn Fain’s reaction above.

But shares of GM fell yesterday after the Wall Street Journal reported that the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration wants some 20 million GM vehicles recalled to replace potentially faulty air bag inflaters.

In May, GM recalled about 1 million vehicles for the same issue.  The supplier, ARC Automotive, didn’t believe the parts were faulty and didn’t want to recall some 67 million vehicles for various manufacturers that NHTSA wanted fixed.

The number has grown to 20 million for GM, according to the Journal.

--Meanwhile, Tesla’s summertime deliveries of electric vehicles surged 27% from last year but still fell below analyst projections as Elon Musk’s company navigated through softening customer demand as well as factory upgrades.

Tesla sold 435,059 vehicles during the July-to-September period, up from 343,830 at the same time last year.  Analysts had forecast 461,000, according to FactSet Research.  The Q3 sales also marked a step back from Tesla’s 466,140 vehicle deliveries during the second quarter.

The company blamed the sequential sales decline on planned downtime to upgrade its factories.

Tesla will need a big finish to 2023 to realize Musk’s stated goal of increasing its sales by 50% annually.  To hit that target, Tesla will have to sell 1.97 million vehicles this year, and through the first nine months it had delivered just over 1.3 million vehicles.  Analysts are now estimating 1.84 million for the full year.

--Cox Automotive updated its U.S. forecasts, saying all new-car sales should come in at about 15.4 million units this year, up from 2022’s 14.2 million but trailing prepandemic sales of nearly 17 million.  As for EVs, they should equate to a record 8% of new-car sales.

But EV dealer inventories are running at 97 days of demand, compared with 57 for traditional vehicles, a sign that the industry has made too many EVs.  Ford’s EV sales rose 6% year-over-year through August.

Cox projects that EV sales will account for 23% of all new-car sales in California in the third quarter, while the figure in Michigan and Ohio – Ford and General Motors country – is 3%.  Both have lots of assembly plants and employees there, but locals aren’t rushing to buy EVs.  One reason: cold weather, which can cut EV range by 20%-25%.

The EV industry is out of the early-adoption phase when any cool new model would sell.  Now, it’s all about smart marketing and incentives, says Cox.

Tesla’s price cut today on its key models doesn’t help the other automakers, who are losing huge sums in building out their EV manufacturing facilities.

--United Airlines ordered 110 additional aircraft from Airbus and Boeing for delivery amid surging international travel.

The carrier said it secured 50 Boeing 787-9s to be delivered from 2028 to 2031, and 60 Airbus A321 neos units for delivery between 2028 and 2030.

The company also signed options for up to 50 more Boeing 787s and purchase rights for an additional 40 Airbus A321 neo aircraft by the end of the decade.

“I’m convinced our strategy is the right one as we continue to add new, larger aircraft to take full advantage of our growing flying opportunities both internationally and domestically,” CEO Scott Kirby said.

United expects to take delivery of about 800 new narrowbody and widebody aircraft between 2023 and 2032.

--TSA checkpoint numbers vs. 2019

10/5…103 percent of 2019 levels
10/4…99
10/3…98
10/2…103
10/1…105
9/30…111
9/29…103
9/28…106

--More than 75,000 healthcare workers at Kaiser Permanente walked off the job Wednesday in what labor leaders described as the biggest strike in the sector in U.S. history.  The Coalition of Kaiser Permanente Unions said workers were protesting “bad faith bargaining by Kaiser executives as unions negotiate over wages and other issues that labor leaders contend have resulted in chronic understaffing. 

--Macau’s casinos are filling up again, with around 655,000 visitors arriving in the first five days of China’s long fall holiday – even longer than usual this year thanks to the convergence of the Mid-Autumn Festival and the Golden Week Chinese National Day holiday.  That’s about 85% of visitor arrivals in the first five days of China’s Golden Week holiday in 2019.

But many high rollers, especially from mainland China, haven’t returned due to the government cracking down on junkets, which recruit so-called VIP gamblers from the mainland.  The boss of the biggest junket was sentenced to 18 years in prison for illegal gambling operations and organized crime in January.

--On the return to office front, a post-Labor Day bump nudged return rates in mid-September to their highest level since the onset of the pandemic. 

But office attendance in big cities is still barely half of what it was in 2019, and company get-tough measures are proving largely ineffective at boosting that rate much higher.

In Chicago, some September days had a return rate of over 66%.  But it was below 30% on Fridays.  In New York, it ranges from about 25% to 65%, according to Kastle Systems, which tracks security-card swipes.

Overall, the average return rate in the 10 U.S. cities tracked by Kastle Systems matched the recent high of 50.4% of 2019 levels for the week ended Sept. 20, though it slid a little below half the following week.

Business leaders in New York, Detroit, Seattle, Atlanta and Houston interviewed by the Wall Street Journal said they have seen only slight improvements in sidewalk activity and attendance in office buildings since Labor Day.

--Wonder why Taylor Swift is with Travis Kelce?  She’s one smart girl.  Swift is receiving massive amounts of free publicity from America’s favorite sport.

And Thursday, movie theater chain AMC announced that the “Taylor Swift / The Eras Tour” concert film has passed $100 million in global pre-sales.

The announcement comes just over a week before the film is set to debut worldwide and days after AMC announced that it struck a deal to distribute “Renaissance: A Film by Beyonce.”

Swift’s film is responsible for AMC’s domestic record for the highest ticket-sales revenue during a single day and will play in over 8,500 theaters around the world.

The Eras Tour itself is estimated to have generated up to $4.6 billion in consumer spending, according to projections from research company QuestionPro.

Foreign Affairs

China: Images that appear to suggest a People’s Liberation Army warplane flew beneath a commercial airline near Taiwan have triggered concerns that mainland forces are practicing for an assault on the island, under the cover of civilian planes.

This is extraordinary.  The Taiwanese defense ministry declined to comment on online media reports that a Y-9 electronic warfare plane was spotted flying beneath Cathay Pacific flight CX366 from Hong Kong to Shanghai on September 24.

The images are purportedly screenshots from real-time aircraft tracking map websites FlightAware in the U.S. and Swedish-based Flighttrader 24, and began circulating online the same day the defense ministry announced increased PLA activity on the mainland facing Taiwan.

The ministry noted PLA activities over the previous week involving aircraft and ground troops at Dacheng Bay in Fujian province.

The exercises appeared to be a series of amphibious drills involving fighters, drones, bombers and other aircraft, as well as warships and were in addition to the PLA’s regular fly-bys or crossovers of the median line to areas close to the island, the ministry said.

Separately, the White House is making plans for a face-to-face meeting between President Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in San Francisco next month.

At the same time, Vladimir Putin confirmed he will meet President Xi in Beijing next month as well, in the latest high-level engagement between the two neighbors.

Turkey: On Sunday, two attackers detonated a bomb in front of Turkish government buildings in Ankara in an assault that left both of them dead and two police officers wounded, in what authorities called the capital’s first terrorist attack in years.  I immediately thought, ‘uh oh.’

As in, ‘Uh oh.  There goes Sweden’s bid for membership in NATO,’ as Turkey, or Hungary, can still deny the Swedes membership.  And Kurdish militants will be blamed, which means Turkish President Erdogan, who has balked at Sweden’s application because he says they are not doing enough to crack down on Kurds seeking refuge in Sweden.

Turkey then almost immediately carried out raids on suspected Kurdish rebel targets in northern Iraq.  A defense ministry statement said some 20 targets of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, were “destroyed” in the aerial operation, including caves, shelters and depots.

So then a U.S. F-16 fighter jet shot down a Turkish drone on Thursday after it flew near U.S. forces in northeast Syria, heightening tensions between two allies already at odds.

‘Uh oh,’ I mused anew.

The U.S. then mounted a full-court press to ease relations with its fellow NATO member.  Officials said they have no reason to think Turkey was attempting to target American forces.  Yet they acknowledged that a Turkish drone was armed, flew within half a kilometer of U.S. troops and ignored repeated warnings to stay away.

Syria: A terror attack on a military academy in Syria, carried out with weaponized drones, killed at least 100 people on Thursday.  It was a graduation ceremony. Syria’s defense minister had attended the affair and had left minutes before.  Syria’s defense ministry did not specify what organization was responsible.

Footage shared with Reuters through the messaging app WhatsApp “showed people…lying in pools of blood in a large courtyard.  Some of the bodies were smoldering and others were still on fire.”  The death toll was reported by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which has a reputation for accuracy.  The Syrian government said 80 had been killed, but that 240 had been injured.

Iran: The Nobel Peace Prize was awarded Friday to Narges Mohammadi, an imprisoned Iranian human rights activist who has campaigned in support of women and against the death penalty.

Mohammadi has been arrested more than a dozen times, convicted five times and she has been sentenced to a total of 31 years in prison and 154 lashes, the latter rights groups don’t believe has been carried out.

Mohammadi has remained defiant despite being behind bars.

“The more of us they lock up, the stronger we become,” she once wrote from prison in an opinion piece for the New York Times.

There was no immediate reaction from Iranian state television and other state-controlled media.

Azerbaijan / Armenia: More than 100,000 refugees have arrived in Armenia since Azerbaijan’s military operation to retake control of Nagorno-Karabakh, the United Nations said, while thousands more endured long hours of delay in a huge traffic jam at the border.

“Many are hungry, exhausted and need immediate assistance,” the head of the UN refugee agency UNHCR, said in a post last weekend.

By today, most of Karabakh’s 120,000 Armenians, prior to the lightning strike by Azerbaijan, have now left the enclave.

And on Wednesday, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev pulled out of an EU-brokered meeting with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, dealing a blow to prospects for rescuing the peace process between the two countries.  The meeting had been aimed at preventing any further escalation.

Armenia now desperately needs EU support to tackle the humanitarian crisis with the arrival of 100,000+ refugees, as well as to shore up its embattled leadership, many Armenians furious with the prime minister for losing Karabakh.

Slovakia: As expected, Robert Fico, a former prime minister who took a pro-Russian campaign stance, won the most seats in Slovakia’s parliamentary elections last weekend in a further sign of eroding support for Ukraine in the West as the war drags on and the front line remains largely static.

Fico took 23 percent of the vote on a platform that included stopping all arms shipments to Ukraine and placing blame for the war equally on the West and Kyiv. 

He laced social conservatism, nationalism, anti-L.G.B.T.Q. rhetoric and promises of generous welfare handouts in what proved to be an effective anti-liberal agenda, especially in small towns and rural areas.

But it’s not known how Fico will form a coalition. A liberal, pro-West newcomer, the Progressive Slovakia party, was a distant second, with 18% of the votes.

Its leader, Michal Simecka, who is deputy president of the European Parliament, said his party respected the result.  “But it’s bad news for Slovakia,” he said.  “And it would be even worse if Robert Fico manages to create a government.”

Fico served as prime minister in 2006-2010 and again in 2012-2018.

Your editor has relatives from Bratislava, the capital of Slovakia, and Kosice, a large city in the country.

Serbia: The White House said over the weekend it was monitoring an “unprecedented” build-up of Serbian troops and armor along the Kosovo border and called on Belgrade to withdraw them immediately.

The NATO peacekeeping force in Kosovo, KFOR, has been reinforced with British troops and the Biden administration said it was consulting with allies to ensure KFOR’s postures “matched the threat.”

Random Musings

--Presidential approval ratings….

Gallup: 41% approve of President Biden’s job performance, 58% disapprove; 39% of independents approve (Sept. 1-23).

Rasmussen: 45% approve, 53% disapprove (Oct. 6).

--A new Suffolk University/Boston Globe/USA TODAY poll of likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire has Donald Trump still at 49%, with Nikki Haley second at 19%.  Haley has surged past Ron DeSantis, who dropped to 10%.

Chris Christie was at 6%, Vivek Ramaswamy and Tim Scott 4%.  Mike Pence and Doug Burgum 1%.

But in a separate poll question, 41% said Christie should drop out of the presidential race, first, among the seven Republicans on the last debate stage at the Reagan Library.  Mike Pence was second but back at 17%.  So not good news for Christie, who has targeted New Hampshire.

The same survey asked New Hampshire Republicans if the U.S. should continue aiding Ukraine in its war and nearly half, 48%, supported phasing out assistance to Ukraine; 39% wanted to continue the aid.  Just 9% endorsed increasing it.

--A Winthrop University poll of Republican voters in South Carolina has 50% going for Trump, 17% for Nikki Haley, and 12% going to Ron DeSantis.  Tim Scott is only at 6% in his home state.

If you add in Republican leaning independents, Trump gets 47.5%, Haley 18.5%, and DeSantis the same 12%.

--Trump has gotten to calling Nikki Haley “Birdbrain.”

“MAGA, or I, will never go for Birdbrain Nikki Haley,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.  “Birdbrain doesn’t have the TALENT or TEMPERAMENT to do the job.  MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”

Trump’s campaign then over the weekend left a birdcage and some bird food outside Haley’s hotel room in Iowa, which Haley’s campaign responded to:

“This behavior is weird, creepy, and desperate from a former president feeling the pressure,” Betsy Ankney, Haley’s campaign manager, said in a statement.  “It’s more proof that it’s time to leave the drama behind.  America is better than this.  Let’s go.”

--A New York judge placed a limited gag order on Donald Trump on Tuesday after the former president posted a message to social media targeting the judge’s law clerk.

Trump attacked the clerk, Allison Greenfield, shortly before noon on Truth Social.  His post was a picture of Greenfield with Sen. Chuck Schumer.  Trump mocked Greenfield as “Schumer’s girlfriend” and said that the case against him should be dismissed.

The post was then taken down after a closed-door meeting in the room where Trump is being tried.  After the break, Justice Arthur Engoron said, “Personal attacks on members of my court staff are unacceptable, inappropriate and I will not tolerate them under any circumstances.”

Justice Engoron said his statement should be considered a gag order forbidding any posts, emails or public remarks about members of his staff.

In a pretrial ruling, Justice Engoron found that Trump was liable for fraud and dissolved the companies he uses to run his New York properties.

New York Attorney General Letitia James has asked Engeron to fine the defendants $250 million.

Trump showed up for the first three days of his fraud trial, which he was not required to do.  The charges are civil, not criminal – meaning that Trump faces serious financial penalties, but not prison time.

The trial is expected to last several weeks.  If the attorney general’s office proves its case, the judge could bar Trump from operating a business in New York, along with the hefty fine.

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“Mr. Trump showed up in court Monday for a reason, using every opportunity to portray himself as a political victim.  His claim will resonate with many because of Ms. James’ targeting and Judge Engoron’s caustic opinion.  If Democrats hope all of this will keep Mr. Trump from the White House, they may discover they are helping him win the GOP nomination to face a weak and unpopular President Biden.”

In line with the above, Trump has raised more than $45.5 million in the third fundraising quarter of the year and has in excess of $37.5 million in cash on hand, his campaign said Wednesday.

“In an impressive testament to the overwhelming grassroots support behind President Trump that will lead to dominating victories, close to $36 million of the total cash on hand is designated for the primary,” the campaign said in a statement.

The Trump campaign’s latest haul is nearly double the amount that was raised in the first quarter.

By comparison, Ron DeSantis received $15 million in the third quarter and only has $5 million in cash on hand, figures that the Trump campaign mocked.

--John Kelly delivered a scathing rebuke of his onetime boss, former president Trump, and corroborated several damning accounts alleging jarring disregard toward service members.

The former White House chief of staff confirmed to CNN a 2020 Atlantic story claiming Trump was bewildered by service members who died in war, during a 2017 Memorial Day stop at Arlington National Cemetery.

“I don’t get it. What was in it for them?” Trump purportedly told Kelly at the time.

In another 2017 incident, Trump allegedly insisted that no wounded veterans get the spotlight in a large military parade he was attempting to have planned.

“Those are the heroes,” Kelly replied, according to his book, “The Divider: Trump in the White House.”

“In our society, there’s only one group of people who are more heroic than they are – and they are buried over in Arlington.”

“I don’t want them,” Trump allegedly shot back. “It doesn’t look good for me.”

Kelly also confirmed a 2018 anecdote alleging Trump was sour about visiting the graves of soldiers at Aisne-Marne American Cemetery in France.

“Why should I go to that cemetery?  It’s filled with losers,” Trump allegedly said.

Reminder, Kelly is a retired Marine Corps General who lost his then-29-year-old son to a land mine in Afghanistan back in 2010.

“What can I add that has not already been said?” Kelly told CNN.  “A person who admires autocrats and murderous dictators. A person that has nothing but contempt for our democratic institutions, our Constitution, and the rule of law.”

--Special counsel Jack Smith investigated if former President Trump shared potentially sensitive information about the U.S. nuclear submarine program with an Australian billionaire – even though some of what was allegedly discussed was already a matter of public record.

The purported conversation between Trump and Anthony Pratt took place at Mar-a-Lago in April 2021, according to ABC News.

Pratt, the head of privately held Pratt Industries, a packaging company, reportedly told federal prosecutors that Trump discreetly disclosed to him the precise number of nuclear warheads U.S. submarines carry and how close they can get to a Russian submarine without being detected.

However, while this was a big headline Thursday afternoon, a 2013 Congressional Budget Office report states that the U.S. fleet of Ohio-class nuclear submarines can carry a maximum of 20 missiles and up to eight nuclear warheads per missile.

--California Gov. Gavin Newsom appointed Emily’s List President Laphonza Butler to fill the Senate seat held by Dianne Feinstein.

The interim appointment will extend until at least November 2024.  Feinstein had planned to step down at the end of her term, in January 2025.  Three of California’s top Democrats – Reps. Barbara Lee, Katie Porter and Adam Schiff – are in a contentious primary contest for that seat.

Before heading Emily’s List, the fundraising powerhouse group that has worked to support Democratic women up and down the ballot, Butler served as president of a union representing 325,000 nursing home and home-care workers throughout California.

Butler was sworn in this week.

--Presidential hopeful Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will announce he is running as an independent next week instead of pursuing his longshot bid to oust President Biden as the Democratic Party nominee.

Kennedy posted a video on YouTube on Friday asking Americans to join him for a “major announcement” in Philadelphia on Oct. 9.

“I’ll be speaking about a sea change in American politics,” he said, decrying corruption in “both parties.”

Kennedy has complained that the Democratic Party has “essentially merged into one unit” with the Biden campaign, denying him a fair shot in the nominating contest.

Democrats have expressed concern that any third-party bid could draw votes away from Biden.

But Republicans like the anti-vaccine activist Kennedy more than Democrats do by a wide margin, suggesting Trump’s campaign could be impacted as well.

--Cornel West said Thursday he would seek the presidency as an independent candidate, choosing to forgo a run with the Green Party.  The decision complicates the ability to get on the ballot – if he had won the Green nomination, it would have ensured ballot access in nearly 20 states with the potential for close to all 50 states.

--New York Socialist Democratic Rep. Jamaal Bowman triggered a fire alarm as his party was trying to delay a crucial budget vote last Saturday.  Bowman said it was an accident.

The alarm prompted an hour-long evacuation, but a deal to avoid a federal government shutdown was eventually agreed to.

Republicans accused him of deliberately attempting to sabotage the vote, and Capitol Police and the House administration committee are investigating.

Now former House Speaker McCarthy called it a “new low.”

Bowman needs to be severely reprimanded, and the networks should band together not to give him any airtime through the 2024 election.

--First son Hunter Biden pleaded not guilty Tuesday morning at a Delaware federal courthouse to weapons and false statement charges after a plea deal collapsed over the summer.

Hunter was made to show up in person after a judge declined his request to be arraigned over Zoom from his California home.

--Nadine Arslanian Menendez, federally indicted in a bribery scheme with her husband, Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), struck and killed a man while driving her Mercedes-Benz on Main Street in Bogota, New Jersey, in December 2018.

Details about the crash, which unfolded on the evening of Dec. 12, 2018, are outlined in a Bogota Police Department report obtained by NorthJersey.com and The Record.

Arslanian – who began dating Menendez in February 2018 and married the senator in October 2020 – was not charged.

A month after the crash, according to an indictment brought by the U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York, Arslanian was texting Wael Hana, an Egyptian American businessman also indicted in the bribery scheme, about her lack of a car.  Presto!  Hana later provided her with a 2019 Mercedes-Benz C-300 convertible, the indictment says.

--From Reuters: “India’s drug regulator has found that a cough syrup and an anti-allergy syrup made by Norris Medicines are toxic, according to a government report, months after Indian-made cough syrups were linked to 141 children’s deaths worldwide.  The medicines were contaminated either with diethylene glycol (DEG) or ethylene glycol (EG), the same contaminants found in the cough syrups that caused the deaths in Gambia, Uzbekistan and Cameroon since the middle of last year.”

The state health ministry ordered the company to suspend production.  Check all your labels for medicines and other products as to where they are manufactured.

--The Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine was awarded to Katalin Kario and Drew Weissman, who together identified a chemical tweak to messenger RNA (mRNA) that laid the foundation for vaccines against Covid-19.

--The rain that the New York City region saw last Friday and Saturday was the worst in some parts since 1948, with John F. Kennedy Airport receiving 8 ½ inches.

Central Park, the official spot for measuring New York City precip, received 5.8 inches, bringing the monthly total to 14.2, making September the fourth-wettest month in New York history, records going back to 1869, and the rainiest September in 140 years!

--In Greece, they are still tallying the damages from devastating floods in early September, after record heat in August…some $5.3 billion, as the rains destroyed fruit trees, corn and around a fifth of Greece’s cotton crop, as well as killing over 200,000 animals and poultry.

--At least 40 people were killed after a glacial lake burst its banks and triggered flash floods this week in the Indian Himalayas, government officials said on Friday, with dozens missing.

--Regarding K-Tay (Kansas City Chief tight end Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift), Rick Reilly wrote in the Washington Post that they present a danger to Donald Trump come Election Day (though while Reilly doesn’t say it, I can’t imagine they are together much further than Taylor’s movie release).

“They’re both loathed by right-wingers. She, for openly standing up against Donald Trump and for abortion rights.  He, for appearing in coronavirus vaccine ads and taking a knee during the national anthem, the highest-profile White NFL player to do so.

“In fact, if anybody should be worried about K-Tay, it’s Trump.  These two have fan bases that are huge and devoted. Just from Swift attending that single Chiefs game, Kelce’s merchandise sales jumped 400 percent. Swift put out one Instagram story last week urging her fans to register to vote, Vote.org reported, and participants on the site jumped 1,226 percent in the next hour.

“Between X (formerly Twitter), Instagram and Facebook, she has around 450 million followers (Kelce has ‘only’ about 5 million).  What if they decided a fun couples thing to do would be to…I don’t know…save democracy?  K-Tay could stir up voters, from homecoming queens to assisted-living grandpas, from Castro Street to Wall Street, and rock polling places the way they rock stadiums.

“That might be something even Trump couldn’t shake off.”

---

Pray for the men and women of our armed forces…and all the fallen.

Pray for Ukraine.

God bless America.

---

Gold $1843
Oil $82.83

Regular Gas: $3.74; Diesel: $4.54 [$3.86 / $4.88 yr. ago]

Returns for the week 10/2-10/6

Dow Jones  -0.3%  [33407]
S&P 500  +0.5%  [4308]
S&P MidCap  -1.9%
Russell 2000  -2.2%
Nasdaq  +1.6%  [13431]

Returns for the period 1/1/23-10/6/23

Dow Jones  +0.8%
S&P 500  +12.2%
S&P MidCap  +1.0%
Russell 2000  -0.9%
Nasdaq  +28.3%

Bulls 42.3
Bears 23.9

Hang in there.

Brian Trumbore

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