Week in Review

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Week in Review

09/14/2024

For the week 9/9-9/13

[Posted 4:30 PM ET, Friday]

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Edition 1,325

In Tuesday’s historic debate in Philadelphia, home of former boxing great Smokin’ Joe Frazier, Vice President Kamala Harris cleaned former President Donald Trump’s clock.  No ands, ifs, or buts.  And, just as in her acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention, Harris accomplished her main goal.  Look and sound presidential. 

Harris baited Trump into defending his felony convictions, his wealth and his role in overturning Roe v. Wade. She needled him about the enthusiasm of his rally crowds and his propensity for outlandish statements and conspiracy theories.

The Vice President’s approach was validated minutes into the debate, with Trump diverting a discussion over immigration and border security into unfounded online rumors about undocumented migrants, who he said were eating people’s pets in an Ohio suburb.

“The people that came in, they’re eating the cats.  They’re eating the pets of the people that live there. And this is what’s happening in our country, and it’s a shame,” Trump said,

Harris was on the offensive from the outset, while he turned the subject repeatedly back to inflation and immigration, political vulnerabilities for Harris, arguing that the Biden-Harris administration had “destroyed” the country, and labeling her a Marxist.

Harris poked fun at crowd sizes at his rallies.  “People start leaving his rallies early out of exhaustion and boredom,” she said.

Trump hit back: “People don’t go to her rallies. There’s no reason to go.”

They argued over abortion, Harris saying Trump would “sign an abortion ban” if re-elected, while Trump countered: “What she says is an absolute lie.  I am not in favor of an abortion ban.”

At one point in the debate, Trump refused to acknowledge that he lost the 2020 election, and when asked about his recent statements that he had “lost by a whisker,” Trump said he was being sarcastic.

“I don’t acknowledge it at all,” Trump said. “I say that sarcastically. ...Look, there’s so much proof. All you have to do is look at it.”

Harris countered that Trump was “fired” by the American people in 2020. “Donald Trump was fired by 81 million people, so let’s be clear about that and clearly he’s having a very difficult time processing that,” she said.  “We cannot afford to have a president of the United States who attempts as he did in the past to upend the will of the voters in a free and fair election.”

BUT...and a big but...Kamala Harris didn’t really say anything!  She bobbed and weaved (while jabbing the president) and avoided answering virtually every question asked of her and we learned zero on her true policies.

However, that wasn’t just the fault of ABC News’ David Muir and Linsey Davis, the moderators, though they were indeed abysmal, but Donald Trump didn’t do anything to counter Harris’ beatdown.

Muir and Davis needed to follow up with Harris on two simple facts... Why didn’t the Biden-Harris administration issue their now effective executive order to drastically slow down migration at the border even just two years earlier?  And how is it, Madame Vice President, that neither you nor the president has ever called the families of the 13 American soldiers killed at Abbey Gate in Afghanistan?  Of course, Trump had multiple opportunities to ask the same of Harris.

In the end, I liked how the Wall Street Journal’s Daniel Henninger put it:

“Despite Mr. Trump’s bad night, the debate made something important clear to viewers: Kamala Harris has a character problem.

“Her repeated ducking of questions about her past politics became impossible not to notice. Would she allow abortions in the third trimester?  Has she ever met Vladimir Putin? Why was the border left open so long?  Mr. Trump himself didn’t emphasize that she wasn’t answering these questions, but maybe he didn’t have to.  Her instinct to evade was obvious. Sen. Bernie Sanders said this week that her move to the center is largely opportunistic....

“Ms. Harris and her advisers, like Joe Biden in 2020, embraced ‘adaptability’ because they had to.  Progressivism doesn’t win presidential elections. But Ms. Harris’ crafted flexibility is what many voters don’t like about politics today – and haven’t since the 2016 election.

“It isn’t over.  This election could still be Mr. Trump’s to lose.  If nothing changes after Tuesday night, he will.”

Immediately after the debate ended, Taylor Swift issued her endorsement of Kamala Harris, providing a real shot of adrenaline to her campaign.  Celebrity endorsements, ditto that of politicians and newspaper editorial boards, are not nearly as impactful as they had been (in some cases) like 30 years ago, but Swift’s is different.  Some of her followers and fans will turn out when they otherwise perhaps would not have.

“Like many of you, I watched the debate tonight,” Swift wrote on Instagram to her 283 million followers. “I will be casting my vote for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz in the 2024 Presidential Election.  I’m voting for @kamalaharris because she fights for the rights and causes I believe need a warrior to champion them.”

She signed her post as “Childless Cat Lady,” a reference to comments made by Mr. Trump’s running mate, Senator JD Vance, about women without children.

If there was any surprise in the endorsement, it was the timing, as Swift endorsed Joe Biden on Oct. 7, 2020, closer to the election.

But Swift, in her post, gave a potential explanation for acting earlier.  She referred to her “fears” about artificial intelligence, and content being generated that had falsely suggested she supported Trump, which he then took and ran with.

“It really conjured up my fears around AI, and the dangers of spreading misinformation,” Swift wrote.  “It brought me to the conclusion that I need to be very transparent about my actual plans for this election as a voter. The simplest way to combat misinformation is with the truth.”

Sounds like something I’ve led off “Week in Review” with a few times recently, doesn’t it?

Here’s the bottom line...the election is tied, both nationally and in the battleground states.  The debate, far more important for Harris than Trump, won’t have moved the needle much, if at all, when we look at polls next week.

I also believe third-party candidates are not going to have any significant impact come November.  [Even RFK Jr. dissed Trump’s debate performance.]

As always, it will come down to turnout.  And, boy, don’t discount Taylor Swift’s impact on that front.

As of today, I am not voting for either candidate.  I’ve said this for a while.  But I’ll write someone’s name in.  And I’m voting to re-elect my Republican congressman, Tom Kean Jr.

Various opinions....

Michael Goodwin / New York Post

“Going into Tuesday’s debate, Kamala Harris had a bigger challenge than Donald Trump. She had to comport herself in ways that would allow undecided voters to imagine her sitting in the Oval Office.

“She passed that test.  She was composed and mostly clear and there was nary a word salad to be heard.

“That’s not to say she’s now on the path to victory. It’s simply that because of the unprecedented way and timing of how and when she got the party’s nomination, and because she would be the nation’s first female president, she had work to do with independent voters.

“She did it sufficiently well to clear the threshold requirement of looking and sounding presidential, a test that Trump had to pass in 2016 in his first run for the prize.

“At the same time, Harris’ achievement is undercut by the fact that she had the help of the biased ABC moderators. They were on her side and let her get away too many times without responding to their questions....

“Asked, for example, how much responsibility she had for the Afghanistan withdrawal debacle, she never answered except to say that she supported President Biden’s decision.

“She then turned to the Democratic talking point that Trump negotiated the original terms with the Taliban, and moderators David Muir and Linsey Davis let it pass. There was no mention of the 13 dead American service members....

“Overall, Trump gave a so-so performance.  He appeared to be glowering at the moderators for most of the evening and turned too often to the Biden-Harris decision to let in millions of unvetted, illegal migrants.  Sheer repetition does not by itself make a convincing case and he missed an opportunity to broaden the argument.”

Editorial / Washington Post

“The two candidates in Tuesday’s presidential debate walked onto the stage with dueling imperatives.  Kamala Harris needed to show voters who she is: her character, her record and, most important, her vision.  Donald Trump needed to hide the same things about himself.  Only one succeeded.

“Ms. Harris presented a positive vision for a nation that, despite its flaws, is in remarkably good shape – imploring the country to escape from the viciousness that has defined its recent politics.  Mr. Trump, by contrast, depicted a fictional United States that is a ‘failing nation’ teetering on the brink of ‘World War III’ in which crime is soaring and immigrants are violently taking over small towns and eating Americans’ pets. The substance that flowed from this attitude, at once dark, and self-aggrandizing, stood in contrast to Ms. Harris’ positive outlook.

“True enough, not every plan Ms. Harris has proposed makes sense.  But she got the better of Mr. Trump simply by explaining why his policies would be worse....

“Ms. Harris was as comfortable as ever on the matter of abortion... She took a moderate line on immigration, touting a bipartisan Senate bill that would have toughened border security if Mr. Trump hadn’t rallied his GOP congressional allies to kill it.  In condemning the slaughter by Hamas as well as the killing of far too many Palestinian civilians by Israel, she walked the tightrope on the war in Gaza.  On Ukraine, Ms. Harris once again pledged to stand with democratic allies against creeping authoritarianism around the globe and defended America’s traditional role leading the free world.

“Mr. Trump, by contrast, boasted that Hungarian Viktor Orban vouches for him, which is not an endorsement to tout.  Mr. Trump managed to control himself...for about a third of the debate. He made sound points on his covid-19 response.  Yet these points increasingly became mixed with half-truths and worse....

“Ms. Harris won on tone and on substance. She presented something not only different from Mr. Trump, but different from Mr. Biden, too: no more squabbling over the last four years or the four before that, no more wallowing in doubt and division. Instead, she focused time after time on charting ‘a course for the future’ – with the nation’s founding values as a lodestar but our eyes on what’s ahead.

“This campaign-season poetry will still have to be translated into policy prose. But it speaks more eloquently about the country’s position and potential than Mr. Trump’s darker rhetoric.”

Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, commenting after the debate on ABC News:

“Whoever did debate prep for Donald Trump should be fired.  (He) spent more time talking about people eating pets, people at his rallies and whether he had more or less, than he did about the economy. And that is a huge fail tonight.”

Christie lambasted Trump, saying he “chased every rabbit hole down.”

“I think, what we’re going to see is that Kamala Harris is now being seen by a lot of voters as a potential president.  That’s what she needed to accomplish tonight. Trump better get to work, or he’s going to lose the election.”

Christie later said Trump “didn’t do anything to try to reach out” to independent and undecided voters.

“(Harris) laid traps for him.  She talked about his rallies and people leaving his rallies...so he spends 90 seconds on how he’s got the biggest rallies in the history of American politics, rather than talking about how the high cost of energy and the high cost of groceries are destroying American families. I mean, he was awful tonight.”

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“Donald Trump and Kamala Harris debated each other with the skill, knowledge and dignity befitting a great democracy on Tuesday – well, at least they appeared on stage together.  Americans were able to see the candidates their two parties have bequeathed for President, for better or (mostly) worse.

“Ms. Harris, less well known than the former President, had the most to gain and our guess is she helped herself. She clearly won the debate, though not because she made a powerful case for her vision or the record of the last four years.  Though she kept talking about her ‘plan’ for the economy, she largely sailed along on the same unspecific promises about ‘the future’ that she has since Democrats made her the nominee.

“She won the debate because she came in with a strategy to taunt and goad Mr. Trump into diving down rabbit holes of personal grievances and vanity that left her policies and history largely untouched.  He always takes the bait, and Ms. Harris set the trap, so he spent much of the debate talking about the past, or about Joe Biden, or about immigrants eating pets, but not how he’d improve the lives of Americans in the next four years.

“The Vice President had help from the ABC News moderators, who were clearly on her side.  They fact-checked only Mr. Trump, several times, though Ms. Harris offered numerous whoppers – on Mr. Trump’s alleged support for Project 2025, Mr. Trump’s views on in-vitro fertilization, and that no American troops are in a combat zone overseas.

“Tell that last one to the Americans killed by Iranian proxies in Jordan this year or the U.S. Navy commanders tasked with intercepting Houthi missiles in the Red Sea.

“But Mr. Trump didn’t help because he let Ms. Harris put him on the defensive. We don’t have the transcript as we write this, but it’s safe to say he enjoyed talking about Mr. Biden more than he did Ms. Harris.  That let the Veep keep saying she isn’t Joe Biden without having to explain how, or whether, she differs from Mr. Biden’s policies.  Mr. Trump didn’t press the point.

“He also fell into the trap of saying the last election was stolen, that the rioters on Jan. 6 were mistreated, and that the courts had ruled against him in 2020 on a ‘technicality.’ Does any undecided voter worried about the price of groceries care?

“We almost laughed out loud when Mr. Trump even fell into a debate about the size of his rallies and whether people leave early....

“Mr. Trump also let Ms. Harris off the hook time and again on her policy views.  One of his weaknesses is that he can rarely marshal policy details or arguments that explain an issue beyond a slogan.  He resorts instead to over-the-top claims like she’s a Marxist, or the ‘worst Vice President in history.’  He didn’t even say she wants to raise taxes by $5 trillion, which happens to be true.

“If Mr. Trump won on any topic, it might have been foreign policy, where he contrasted as he always does the current world disorder with the relative peace of his four years.  Ms. Harris didn’t offer much more than Biden Administration talking points.

“Whether any of this will be decisive for swing voters, we don’t know.  The electorate is closely divided, and most voters already have a firm view of Mr. Trump.  The wild card is whether Ms. Harris made a strong enough impression to persuade the undecided that she is worth a risk.  If she did, she will owe her success to Mr. Trump’s lack of preparation and discipline.

“Flush with its candidate’s success, the Harris campaign on Tuesday night called for a second debate in October. But don’t expect her to sit for any in-depth interviews. That would be risky. This was the only scheduled debate between Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump, and given what we saw Tuesday, the nation will be grateful if it is the last.”

Karl Rove / Wall Street Journal

“Tuesday’s debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump was a train wreck for him, far worse than anything Team Trump could have imagined.

“Ms. Harris was often on offense, leaving Mr. Trump visibly rattled as she launched rocket after rocket at him.  A New York Times analysis found she spent 46% of her time on the attack while Mr. Trump devoted 29% of his time to going after her. Debates aren’t won on defense....

“Rather than dismissing her attacks and launching his strongest counterarguments against her, Mr. Trump got furious. As her attacks continued, his voice rose.  He gripped the podium more often and more firmly. He grimaced and shook his head, at times responding with wild and fanciful rhetoric.  Short, deft replies and counterpunches would have been effective. He didn’t deliver them.

“Mr. Trump did a terrible job at his most important task – tying her to President Biden’s failed policies.  He did an even worse job prosecuting the argument that she’s a far-left politician out of sync with America’s values.  The Trump campaign’s mid-debate fact-check bulletins that flooded email inboxes were far more substantive and effective than his responses at the podium.

“Mr. Trump’s failure wasn’t for a lack of material. He had plenty in the Biden-Harris administration’s record to work with, especially on inflation and the crisis at the border...

“There was no sustained, specific indictment of her record on almost any issue....

“Mr. Trump had a great comeback to Ms. Harris’ agenda for change. She’s had 3 ½ years as vice president, he said, so ‘why hasn’t she done it?’  but that was in his closing statement.  It should have been the attack he started with, continually repeated, and closed with, undercutting every new policy proposal she offered.

“It matters how debating candidates carry themselves. There, it was no contest. Ms. Harris came across as calm, confident, strong and focused on the future.  Mr. Trump came across as hot, angry and fixated on the past, especially his own....

“Will this debate have an effect? Yes, though perhaps not as much as Team Harris hopes or as much as Team Trump might fear. But there’s no putting lipstick on this pig.  Mr. Trump was crushed by a woman he previously dismissed as ‘dumb as a rock.’  Which raises the question: What does that make him?”

--Back to the topic of misinformation that I’ve been often leading with these days, including, again, last week, Elon Musk is the biggest purveyor of election garbage in America.

As noted in an extensive study in the Washington Post:

“The chairman of the board of elections in Montgomery County, Pa., was well acquainted with the regular attendees at his monthly meetings who peddled old, debunked voting conspiracy theories.

“But something changed after April 4, the chairman, Neil Makhija, explained in an interview. That was the day Elon Musk retweeted a false claim that as many as 2 million noncitizens had been registered to vote in Texas, Arizona and Pennsylvania.

“Suddenly, the same people were coming to the meetings with a new, unsubstantiated theory of voter fraud that appeared to align with Musk’s latest post: They were convinced that droves of noncitizens were voting illegally in their suburban Philadelphia county of nearly a million people....

“In the two years since he bought Twitter, now X, Musk has transformed it into a primary source of false election rumors, both by spreading them on his own account, which has 197 million followers, and lowering some of the site’s guardrails around misinformation.

“ ‘You have one of the richest men in the world putting out this idea that the elections are fraudulent and the results are questionable,” Makhija said. “X has obviously become a platform for misinformation and disinformation. Because we know it’s not true.’....

“Election officials say his posts about supposed voter fraud often coincide with an increase in baseless requests to purge voter rolls and heighten their worry over violent threats.  Experts say Musk is uniquely dangerous as a purveyor of misinformation because his digital following stretches well beyond the political realm and into the technology and investment sectors, where his business achievements have earned him credibility....

“Between his purchases of Twitter and Thursday, Musk’s 52 posts or reposts about noncitizen voting – one of the main topics of false or misleading election claims he made in that time period – drew almost 700 million views, according to a Post analysis....

“ ‘The great risk in a privatized public sphere,’ said Sophia Rosenfeld, a history professor at the University of Pennsylvania and author of ‘Democracy and Truth: A Short History,’ is that the owner, in this case, Musk, ‘can control both the flow of information and the content of that information to suit their own needs, whether financial, ideological, or both.’”

The Post report had pages and pages of examples of how Musk parrots’ misinformation.

“ ‘Musk puts out this malarkey and he says nonsense, uneducated things and he gets corrected,” said Tom Irvine, who for 15 years was the primary outside counsel for elections in Maricopa (County, Arizona) and defended the county against election challenges following the 2020 presidential election.  ‘And then he says it again and again and again.’” [Sarah Ellison, Amy Gardner and Clara Ence Morse / WP]

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Russia-Ukraine....

--Early in the week, President Biden hinted at Washington lifting restrictions on Ukraine using U.S. long-range missiles against Russia.  If granted, it would fulfil repeated requests by Ukraine to loosen the limits on U.S.-supplied weapons, which officials have said has left them fighting against Russia’s full-scale invasion with their hands tied.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his UK counterpart, Foreign Secretary David Lammy, were in Kyiv on Wednesday to discuss the issue with President Volodymyr Zelensky.

The Guardian and other outlets reported that the decision had already been made in private, and that it would be announced in New York at a planned meeting between Biden and Zelensky at the UN General Assembly later this month.

Sec. of State Blinken did announce $325 million in new funding to help repair Ukraine’s energy and electric grid.

“We’re again seeing Putin dust off his winter playbook, targeting Ukrainian energy and electricity systems to weaponize the cold against the Ukrainian people,” Blinken said in Kyiv.

Blinken and Lammy traveled together to Ukraine after talks in London. Blinken accused Iran of supplying short-range ballistic missiles to Russia, saying they could be deployed against Ukrainians within weeks.

“Russia has now received shipments with these ballistic missiles, and will likely use them within weeks in Ukraine, against Ukraine,” Blinken said Tuesday in London.  “This development and the growing cooperation between Russia and Iran threatens European security and demonstrates how Iran’s destabilizing influence reaches far beyond the Middle East,” he added.

Iran has repeatedly denied supplying such self-guided weapons to Russia.

Ukrainian officials a week ago said Iran had sent Russia 200 short-range ballistic missiles, citing classified intelligence reports.  The shipment is believed to have arrived at “an undisclosed port in the Caspian Sea.”

Last Saturday, CIA Director Williams Burns, in a rare public meeting with his UK counterpart, Richard Moore, warned Iran would signal a “dramatic escalation” of support for Russia by providing ballistic missiles.  He declined to confirm that the transfer had taken place.

If they were used on the battlefield in Ukraine, “it will become very obvious,” said Moore, head of the UK’s MI6 foreign intelligence service.  “This stuff lands, it explodes, it kills civilians, it destroys their energy infrastructure.”

“This is what Iran is choosing to do, it’s choosing to help Russia do these types of things,” Moore said.

Burns said the defense relationship between Moscow and Tehran is a “two-way street.”

“Russia has the ability to do a number of things that help perfect Iran’s ballistic missiles that makes them more dangerous for use against our friends and partners across the Middle East,” he said.

Burns said the Biden administration will continue to send weapons to Ukraine but added that the risk of escalation with Russia shouldn’t be taken lightly.

He said there was a moment in the fall of 2022 when “there was a genuine risk of the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons,” but that the U.S. and its allies shouldn’t be intimidated by what he called Moscow’s saber-rattling.

Friday morning, the headline in Russia’s Kommersant newspaper read, “Vladimir Putin draws his red line.”

Speaking in St. Petersburgh, Putin sent a clear warning to the West: don’t allow Ukraine to use your long-range missiles to strike Russian territory.

Moscow, he said, would view that as the “direct participation” of NATO countries in the war in Ukraine.

“It would substantially change the very essence, the nature of the conflict,” the Kremlin leader continued.  “This will mean that NATO countries, the USA and European states, are fighting with Russia.”

Putin has drawn red lines before. And seen them crossed before.

--As for Russia’s glide bombs, according to officials and analysts who spoke with Defense One, there’s no easy answer to them.  Russia is dropping as many as 3,500 glide bombs a month.  Weighing up to 6,000 pounds, some contain enough explosives to level entire buildings with a single strike.  Kyiv’s troops cite the weapon as a key reason for Russian advances in eastern Ukraine.

--A Russian artillery attack Saturday on the eastern Ukrainian city of Kostiantynivka killed four men and injured three others, according to the governor of Donetsk.

President Zelensky said the death toll in the Sept. 3rd strike on the Military Institute of Communications in Poltava had risen to 55, with 328 people injured.  Many of the injuries are severe.

--Russian officials Tuesday said they shot down 144 Ukrainian drones around the country overnight in a wave of attacks that killed one woman, set residential buildings on fire and grounded flights in Moscow.

Of the 144 drones, half were in the western border region of Bryansk, 20 were in Moscow and 14 were over the Kursk region.

The Ukrainian Air Force announced on Telegram that its air defenses downed 38 out of 46 Shahed-type attack drones launched by Russia Monday evening.

--Russia also announced Tuesday it had captured at least three villages in the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine.  It then said it was closing in on Pokrovsk, the major rail and road hub. 

Ukrainian officials said on Thursday Russian forces were within five miles, as officials renewed calls for all residents to evacuate.  The city’s population has dwindled from about 62,000 at the beginning of August to 18,000 by Wednesday, local and regional authorities said.

Seizing this city could lead to Russia taking the rest of the Donbas region.

--Three Red Cross workers were killed and two wounded on Thursday when artillery fire struck a frontline aid distribution site in Ukraine, the organization said.

The International Committee of the Red Cross workers were preparing to distribute wood and coal briquettes in the village of Viroliubivka, in the Donetsk region, when they were hit, the group said in a statement. The supplies were intended to prepare residents for the cold winter nights that are soon to come.

The attack took place amid increasing Russian bombardment around the city of Pokrovsk, where conditions have deteriorated, and residents who remain are largely without water or electricity.

President Zelensky called the attack “another Russian war crime.”

--By week’s end, Russia’s defense ministry says its force have recaptured 10 settlements seized by Ukrainian forces in Russia’s Kursk region, as President Zelensky confirmed Russia had begun “counteroffensive actions, which is going in line with our Ukrainian plan.”

A Ukrainian officer fighting in Kursk told the BBC, “The fighting is very tough, and the situation is not in our favor as of now.”

Ukraine’s offensive was launched with the apparent aim of distracting Russia from its push into eastern Ukraine.  It now claims up to 1,300 sq km (500 sq miles) of Russian territory.

But Russia has been advancing steadily in eastern Ukraine and should Pokrovsk fall, it will be a huge defeat for Kyiv. 

--According to documents from a European intelligence agency viewed by Reuters, Russia started producing a new long-range attack drone called the Garpiya-A1 last year using Chinese engines and parts, which it has deployed against Ukraine.

--Former President Trump twice declined to say if he wants Ukraine to win the war against Russia, instead offering in Tuesday night’s debate that he wanted the fighting to end and would have the two countries’ leaders meet and work out a deal.

“I want the war to stop,” Trump said. “That is a war that’s dying to be settled. I will get it settled before I even become president.”

[Trump also bizarrely said, “I want to save lives that are being uselessly – people being killed by the millions. It’s the millions.  It’s so much worse than the numbers that you’re getting, which are fake numbers.”  Where the [blank] are you getting your numbers, Mr. President?]

Vice President Kamala Haris pounced on Trump’s comments, saying Vladimir Putin would be “sitting in Kyiv with his eyes on the rest of Europe” if Trump hadn’t lost to President Biden in 2020.  “I believe the reason that Donald Trump says that this war would be over within 24 hours is because he would just give it up.”

--Regarding the toll of the war, one Ukrainian officer lamented to Oliver Carroll of The Economist: “The worst thing is that we’ve all become used to death.  That’s it: the concept of human life, human losses, human blood.  No longer tragedy, just statistics,” he said.

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Israel-Hamas....

--Israeli strikes on Palestinian territories killed more than two dozen Palestinians on Wednesday, according to local officials.  An Israeli airstrike killed five Palestinians in the occupied West Bank, and at least 20 people, including women and children, were killed in the Gaza Strip.

Gaza’s Health Ministry says Tuesday’s strike on a tent camp in an Israeli-designated humanitarian zone killed at least 19 people.  Israel said it had struck Hamas militants in a command-and-control center embedded in the area.  It identified three of the militants, saying they were senior operatives who were directly involved in the Oct. 7 attack and other attacks against Israel and Israeli forces.  The IDF disputed the casualty figure.

--IDF spokesperson Daniel Hagari said late Tuesday that Israel has defeated the last Hamas battalion in Rafah.  That’s the area close to the Egyptian border where Israel deployed ground forces in May, despite international pressure.

--The Syrian government accused Israel of launching missile strikes at its territory that killed at least 18 people, more than three dozen wounded, deepening tensions between the two countries amid an expanding Israeli campaign to disrupt Iranian arms supplies to Lebanon’s Hezbollah.

Among the cities hit was the western Syrian city of Masyaf, where Israel has accused Iran of using a research center there to develop weapons and missiles intended for its aligned regional militias, including Hezbollah.  Iran’s Foreign Ministry condemned the strikes in Syria on Monday on state-run TV, while denying it had any military sites in the country.

Israel has expanded its air campaign against targets in Syria, blowing up weapons and fuel supplies destined for Hezbollah.  But the IDF doesn’t claim responsibility for the attacks, as it attempts to walk a fine line between conducting attacks that kill weapons and destroy arms supplies, while avoiding strikes that kill senior officials or large numbers of civilians and risk sparking a bigger blowup.

--Israeli airstrikes across Gaza Tuesday and Wednesday hit a UN school sheltering displaced Palestinian families as well as two homes, killing at least 34 people, including 19 women and children, hospital officials said.

The IDF said it was targeting Hamas militants planning attacks from inside the school, where 18 were killed, including six employees of the UN agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA).

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres condemned the strike, saying: “What’s happening in Gaza is totally unacceptable.”

“These dramatic violations of international humanitarian law need to stop now,” he wrote on X.
UNRWA said the attack marked “the highest death toll among our staff in a single incident” since the start of the war.

Israel’s ambassador to the UN, Danny Danon, hit out at Guterres’ criticism.

“It is unconscionable that the UN continues to condemn Israel in its just war against terrorists, while Hamas continues to use women and children as human shields,” he said.

--Secretary-General Guterres said in an interview with the Associated Press that it’s “unrealistic” to think the UN could play a role in Gaza’s future, either by administering the territory or providing a peacekeeping force, because Israel is unlikely to accept a UN role.

But he said, “the UN will be available to support any cease-fire.”

--Three Israelis were shot and killed Sunday at the border crossing between the West Bank and Jordan, Israeli officials said, in what appeared to be an attack linked to the Gaza War.

The assailant, who was killed in a shootout, approached the Allenby Bridge Crossing from the Jordanian side in a truck and opened fire at Israeli security forces.  Israel said the three people killed, all men in their 50s, were Israeli civilians.

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Wall Street and the Economy

The big Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting is next Tuesday and Wednesday, Sept. 17-18, and at 2:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday, we get the Fed’s pronouncement on interest rates and the expected first cut in years.  The markets, and consumers, expect at least a ¼-point, 25 basis points, cut, with Wall Street perhaps being overly exuberant in calling for 50.

The last data point that really mattered in terms of the Fed’s decision was Wednesday’s consumer price index for August and the CPI rose 0.2%, 2.5% for the last 12 months, the latter down from July’s 2.9% and the lowest since Feb. 2021 (and down from the peak of 9.1% in 2022), while ex-food and energy (“core”), it was 0.3%, 3.2%, more or less in line with expectations...so no negative surprises...and good enough for the Fed to do 25, but not 50.

The stock market, thinking more in lines of 50, initially didn’t like this and the market swooned Wednesday morning, the Dow Jones down over 600, but then it reversed, and all the major indices finished up by the end of the day, continuing a big comeback from last week’s “Red Wedding,” for you “Game of Thrones” fans.

The PPI, producer price index, which isn’t as important these days, came out Thursday and it was all inline, 0.2% for August, 1.7% year-over-year, and on core, 0.3%, 2.4%, the 0.3% a tick above consensus.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow barometer for third-quarter growth is 2.5%.

Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is down to 6.20%, lowest since Feb. 2023, and down from 7.79% on Oct. 26, 2023.

Meanwhile, House Speaker Mike Johnson canceled a planned vote Wednesday on a stopgap government funding measure after facing fierce opposition from some Republicans.

The proposed CR (continuing resolution) would have extended government funding through March 28 and avoided, at least temporarily, a partial government shutdown just weeks before the general election.  Johnson was aiming to kick the spending bill ahead six months, when funding levels could be decided under a new administration and a new Congress.

Numerous lawmakers raised objections to the measure, which attached a requirement that people have to show proof of U.S. citizenship to vote.  That requirement was almost certain to doom the bill in the Senate, where Democrats hold a slim majority.

Republicans resisted Johnson’s bill either because it didn’t cut spending or because GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump said members should refuse to pass stopgap funding without assurances on election security.

With Republicans holding a thin 220-211 majority in the House, Johnson could have lost only four Republicans, assuming all Democrats opposed it.

Very much related to the above....

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“In Kamala Harris’ first month as the Democratic standard-bearer, the government ran a deficit of $381 billion, on its way to digging a $2 trillion hole for the fiscal year ending this month.  So the Congressional Budget Office says in its latest report.  Would Ms. Harris or Donald Trump care to comment?

“CBO’s update for August, out Tuesday, says revenues in the first 11 months of fiscal 2024 were running 11% above a year ago. Total receipts were $4.4 trillion, including $2.2 trillion in individual income taxes (up 11%), $1.6 trillion in payroll taxes (up 6%), and $420 billion in corporate income taxes (up 29%).  That kind of growth should push the budget toward balance.

“Yet outlays so far this year were $6.3 trillion, up 7% once CBO excludes the Education Department’s ‘2023 savings’ after President Biden’s student-loan forgiveness lost in court.  Social Security benefits were $1.3 trillion, up 8% with cost-of-living adjustments and new enrollees.  Medicare was $847 billion, up 10% after new beneficiaries and higher service costs.

“Net interest on the public debt was $870 billion, up 35% thanks to higher borrowing rates.  That exceeded military spending of $753 billion.  Pentagon spending was up 7%, nowhere near enough to match the rising global threats facing the U.S.”

CBO’s projection of a $2 trillion deficit for all of fiscal 2024, equals a $2 trillion deficit in 2023, excluding the student-loan ‘savings.’

As the Journal opines: “These figures should be alarming, given that the U.S. isn’t in a recession or a world war.

“Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump are in total agreement that they won’t touch Social Security and Medicare, but the two programs are more than a third of outlays.  Meantime, the Social Security trustees say a 21% benefit cut is coming in 2033.  Voters can’t say they weren’t warned.”

Europe and Asia

I can’t believe I missed the second quarter GDP report last Friday from Eurostat, so for the record, GDP in the eurozone grew by just 0.2% in Q2 over Q1, having previously estimated that output increased by 0.3%, which was the pace in the first.  Compared with Q2 of 2023, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 0.6% in the euro area.

GDP growth Q2 2024 vs. Q2 2023

Germany 0.0%; France 1.0%; Italy 0.9%; Spain 2.9%; Netherlands 0.8%.

Thursday, the European Central Bank cut interest rates for a second time as inflation continues to slow, the main benchmark rate going from 3.75% to 3.50%.

ECB President Christine Lagarde said at a news conference that it was “pretty obvious” eurozone interest rates were on a “declining path,” but that the speed and scale of future rate cuts had yet to be determined.

“We shall remain data-dependent.  That is particularly justified in view of the uncertainty that abounds,” Lagarde said.  “We shall decide [on interest rates] meeting by meeting.”

One more.  Eurostat reported July industrial production in the EA20 was down 0.3% over June and declined 2.2% from a year ago.

Turning to Asia...China reported its August inflation figures, up 0.6% year-over-year vs. 0.5% prior, with producer prices down 1.8% Y/Y.

August exports rose 8.7% Y/Y, with imports up 0.5%.  Regarding exports, the 8.7% was robust, but the figures are being burnished by a comparison with a low base – this time last year, when Chinese exports were suffering a collapse. In August 2023, they fell by 8.8% year on year.

August vehicle sales fell 5.0% from a year ago.

Tonight, we have major data on retail sales and industrial production.

Separately, China halted some of PwC’s business in the country for six months over its role in auditing Evergrande.  The accounting firm was also fined $62 million.

And Beijing said it will raise the retirement age for the first time since 1978. For all men it will go from 60 to 63.  For female white-collar workers the age will increase from 55 to 58; for blue-collar women from 50 to 55. The average age of retirement in China is among the lowest in the world, and the pension costs are squeezing government budgets.

Japan on Sunday reported its final reading on second-quarter GDP, a 2.9% annual rate, down slightly from a preliminary reading of 3.1%, but up from a revised 2.4% contraction in Q1, amid a solid rebound in private consumption after spring wage negotiations saw an average pay raise of 5.17%, the highest in over 30 years.  In addition, there was an upturn in business spending, supported by the ongoing recovery in the automotive industry. [Source: Cabinet Office, Japan]

Meanwhile, producer prices in August rose 2.5% vs. 3.0% previously.  July industrial production rose 2.9% from a year ago.

Street Bytes

--Rally time...but how much will the Fed reciprocate next week?  The Dow Jones rose 2.6% to 41393, the S&P 500 4.0% and Nasdaq 5.9%, its best week since November.  As the week went on, the market seemed to think the Fed could do 50 basis points, but they aren’t going to do that, and 50 would be a sign of panic on the Fed’s part.  Inflation is still 2.5%, not 2%.  And it’s proven rather sticky, and the job market is OK.

--U.S. Treasury Yields

6-mo. 4.62%  2-yr. 3.58%  10-yr. 3.65%  30-yr. 3.98%

Treasuries continued to rally, the 10-year at its lowest weekly close since May 2023.  Now we await the Fed, many believing the rally has run its course, but it’s all about the language in their statement and Chair Powell’s comments in his press conference.

--Crude oil was saved from further decline by supply concerns from Hurricane Francine, which outweighed, for the moment, ongoing demand issues.  Francine led to the shutdown of offshore platforms in the Gulf of Mexico and disrupted refinery operations along the coast, but the impact is minimal.

Meanwhile, despite this week’s bounce back rally to $69.00, the market retains a bearish tone as concerns over a weak demand outlook continued to weigh on sentiment.  The International Energy Agency said growth in global demand is “slowing sharply” as China’s economy cools.  World consumption increased by 800,000 barrels a day in the first half of the year, barely a third of the expansion in the same period of 2023.  It’s the lowest rate since oil demand crashed during the 2020 pandemic.

China’s gas consumption could keep declining because of its softer economic performance and transition to electric vehicles and liquefied natural gas-fueled trucks, reducing its diesel demand, according to Capex.com Middle East.

--In yet another blow for Boeing Co., factory workers walked off the job for the first time in 16 years, midnight Thursday, crippling manufacturing across the planemaker’s Seattle commercial jet hub after members of its largest union handily rejected a contract offer and voted to strike.

Members of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, which represents 33,000 Boeing employees across the West Coast, voted overwhelmingly to strike on Thursday, 94.6% voting to reject the offer and 96% supporting a strike.  These are the workers who build Boeing’s 737, 777 and 767 jets.  [The strike does not affect Boeing 787 Dreamliners, which are built by nonunion workers in South Carolina.]

The workers rejected the contract offer from Boeing that would have raised pay 25% over four years.  It’s understandable.  Their wages have stagnated since 2014, ten years ago, and they lost their pension.  They deserve the 40% they are asking for.  But Boeing, already bleeding cash, is in deep merde.

“This is about respect, this is about the past, and this is about fighting for our future,” IAM District 751 President Jon Holden said in announcing the vote.

Boeing responded in a statement that it was “ready to get back to the table to reach a new agreement.”  It added, “We remain committed to resetting our relationship with our employees and the union.”

So, add this to the panel blowing out and leaving a gaping hole in one of its passenger jets in January, to ongoing manufacturing issues, multiple federal investigations and a criminal trial over previous 737 MAX crashes, let alone NASA leaving two astronauts in space rather than sending them home on a problem-plagued Boeing spacecraft.

Should this be a lengthy walkout, then you could further strain the industry’s supply chain and exacerbate jet shortages for airlines.  But for now, commercial flights are not affected. 

--JPMorgan Chase shares fell 5% Tuesday after President and Chief Operating Officer Daniel Pinto said forecasts for net interest income (NII), or the difference between what the bank makes on loans and pays out on deposits, were overly optimistic.

“NII expectations are a bit too high,” Pinto said, without providing a revised estimate.  “Next year is going to be a bit more challenging.”

Meanwhile, investment banking fees could climb by 15% in the third quarter, Pinto said.

JPM’s profit rose to a record in the second quarter, buoyed by a 46% jump in investment banking revenue.  Rivals including Citigroup and Wells Fargo also reported strong gains in investment banking.

Trading revenue is expected to be flat or rise 2% in the third quarter, while volumes for mergers and acquisitions will probably stay steady, Pinto told investors at a conference.

--The market wasn’t wowed by Apple’s new iPhone 16 with long-expected AI features still in test mode even as an industry-first tri-fold phone from Huawei raised the stakes in a battle to dominate the global smartphone market.

Apple’s phones, unveiled Monday, will use AI features – dubbed Apple intelligence – to improve the company’s voice assistant Siri as well as enhance the camera. The features will arrive on U.S. iPhones in beta next month, potentially keeping people from upgrading to iPhone 16s soon.

Apple did not say when it would move beyond the test phase, nor did it announce a partner in China to help power its AI ambitions, which generated a lot of scorn on Chinese social media.  The government has mandated that generative AI-based chatbots need to be vetted before their public release.

“What’s the point of buying it if you can’t use AI?” wrote one Weibo user.  Another commented, “Without AI as the biggest selling point, it should be half price.” [Reuters]

Apple did not raise prices for the new iPhones, which Wall Street analysts said was a good strategy as consumers are not willing to splurge on big-ticket items. [The iPhone 16 Pro Max will start at $1,199, and the iPhone 16 at $799.  Pre-orders are set to begin Friday, and in-store sales on Sept. 20.]

Huawei, which showed off its new Mate XT smartphone hours after the Apple event, has priced the tri-fold device at a hefty $2,800.

Mate XT boasts an AI assistant with text summary, translation and editing functions, as well as AI-boosted image editing functions such as trimming unwanted parts of photos.

iPhone shipments in China fell by 6.7% in the second quarter of 2024, according to data from Canalys.

Apple also unveiled a new design for the latest iteration of its smartwatch, which is thinner than previous versions.

--The European Union’s highest court delivered the 27-nation bloc a major victory on Tuesday in its yearslong campaign to regulate the tech industry, ruling against Apple and Google in two landmark legal cases.

The decisions, issued by the Court of Justice of the European Union, were seen as a test of efforts in Europe to clamp down on the world’s largest companies.

In the Apple case, the court sided with an EU order from 2016 for Ireland to collect 13 billion euros, worth about $14.4 billion today, in unpaid taxes from the company.  Regulators determined that Apple had struck illegal deals with the Irish government that allowed the company to pay virtually nothing in taxes on its European business in some years.

Apple had won an earlier decision to strike down the order, which the European Commission, the EU’s executive branch, appealed to the Court of Justice.  The money is now being released to Ireland, a huge sum for this small country.

Apple argued the EU was imposing an additional tax on company income already taxed in the United States.  The company said it planned to record a one-time charge of nearly $10 billion in its fourth quarter, which ends Sept. 28.

Google is being fined $2.4 billion for giving preferential treatment in Google search results to its own price-comparison shopping service over rival offerings.

--Australia plans to introduce legislation in parliament that could result in social-media firms being fined up to 5% of their global revenues should they fail to prevent the spread of misinformation. The bill is part of a broader crackdown on social-media platforms.  Earlier this week Anthony Albanese, the prime minister, said his government plans to introduce a minimum-age limit for social-media use.

--Oracle shares rose sharply, 8%, after the enterprise software company posted better-than-expected results and announced a new partnership with Amazon Web Services (AWS).

Oracle reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.39 for the fiscal first quarter, topping consensus at $1.33.  Revenue came in at $13.3 billion, above expectations of $13.2 billion.

In the quarter, the company saw 45% growth for its cloud infrastructure business, to $2.2 billion, while cloud application revenue was $3.5 billion, up 10%.

The “solid” quarterly results were mainly driven by increased demand for artificial-intelligence training compute capacity on Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, up 49% from the same period last year.

“The biggest news of all was signing a MultiCloud agreement with AWS – including our latest technology Exadata hardware and Version 23ai of our database software – embedded into AWS cloud datacenters,” Oracle CEO Safra Catz said.

The agreement with AWS enables enterprise customers to connect data in their Oracle Database to applications running on Amazon Web Services.

Oracle shares then popped further Friday after the company lifted its guidance for fiscal 2026 sales to $66 billion, in a briefing for financial analysts after the close on Thursday, the figure well above current consensus.  “Hitting those numbers should not be a problem,” CEO Catz said.

--At a Goldman Sachs conference in San Francisco, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said the scramble for a limited amount of chip supply has frustrated some customers and raised tensions at the artificial intelligence tech darling.

“The demand on it is so great, and everyone wants to be first and everyone wants to be most,” Huang said. 

Nvidia is experiencing strong demand for its latest generation of chips, called Blackwell.  While the Santa Clara, California-based business outsources the physical production of its hardware, Nvidia’s suppliers are making progress in catching up.  “We probably have more emotional customers today,” he told the crowd.  “Deservedly so.  It’s tense. We’re trying to do the best we can.”

--There was some good news on the airline front at week’s end...American Airlines flight attendants said 87% of 28,000 union members agreed to ratify a five-year contract starting Oct. 1.  It includes raises of up to 20.5%, retroactive pay, and scheduling improvements.  The carrier had faced a strike threat by the union if a deal couldn’t be reached.

--TSA checkpoint numbers vs. 2023

9/12...101 percent of 2023 levels
9/11...95
9/10...98
9/9...101
9/8...102
9/7...121...an anomaly
9/6...95
9/5...100

--Nippon Steel is mounting a last-ditch push to muster support for its $14.1 billion takeover of U.S. Steel, a deal opposed by Biden, Harris, Trump and Vance.  Among other stakeholders and some union members, the view is more mixed – with some supporting the tie-up because they worry that another buyer won’t match Nippon’s pledges to invest $2.7 billion into some mills.

I’ve expressed my opinion multiple times on this topic, and I have to reiterate, Biden, Trump et al are idiots.  U.S. Steel is not getting anywhere near $2.7 billion in investments from Cleveland-Cliffs.

But today, the Washington Post ran a story that the Biden administration may decide to delay a decision on the Nippon-U.S. Steel acquisition, at least for now, and possibly until after the election.  U.S. Steel’s shares rallied in response.

--Volkswagen is threatening job cuts in Germany and warning it may shutter factories there for the first time, a reality check for Europe’s anemic auto market.  Nearly a third of major passenger-car plants from Europe’s five largest automakers – BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Stellantis, Renault and VW – were underused last year, producing fewer than half the vehicles they have the capacity to make, according to a Bloomberg News analysis.  Sites shutting down would add to concerns that the region is facing a protracted downturn after falling behind competitors.

--Bank of America Corp. will increase its minimum hourly wage to $24 next month, taking the next step toward a goal of paying $25 by 2025 that it set seven years ago.

The move bumps pay up from $23, a level the firm put in place last September, the company said Tuesday.  It translates to a full-time annualized salary of about $50,000 and applies to all full-time and part-time hourly positions in the U.S. 

“Providing a competitive minimum wage is core to being a great place to work – and I am proud that Bank of America is leading by example,” Sheri Bronstein, who oversees human resources at the Charlotte, North Carlina-based lender, said in a statement.

On a different topic, hours worked, both Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase are planning to more closely track young bankers’ hours following a Wall Street Journal investigation that detailed a dangerous culture of overwork on Wall Street.

JPMorgan will now cap junior investment bankers’ hours at 80 a week in most cases, according to the Journal.  Meanwhile, Bank of America is implementing a new timekeeping tool that requires junior bankers to go into more detail about how their time is spent.

The investigation revealed that junior bankers at BAC were routinely instructed to lie about their hours to avoid exceeding hourly limits.

The death of a 35-year-old Bank of America associate who had been working multiple 100-hour weeks prompted an outcry in the banking industry about employee protections being ignored.  Leo Lukenas III had been working on a team completing a $2 billion deal. An autopsy found he died of a blood clot that formed in a coronary artery.

--Amazon is spending about $2 billion to raise average driver pay to nearly $22 an hour, up 7% from last year. The move follows a National Labor Relations Board ruling on Amazon contract drivers, and increased union activity by the Amazon Labor union and the International Brotherhood of Teamsters.

--Moderna shares tumbled 12% on Thursday after the company announced a major pullback in its research and development efforts, as the drugmaker seeks to stretch its cash to cover an extended period of losses.

The company said it plans to cut R&D spending by 20% beginning in 2025, pausing a number of drug programs and discontinuing others.

--Social Security recipients could receive an additional 2.5% next year, with the actual cost-of-living adjustment, COLA, expected to be announced by the Social Security Administration on Oct. 10, once the third-quarter inflation data are complete.  The bump will be included in SS checks beginning in January 2025.

Of course, many of your costs, such as rent, and car and home insurance, are up far higher, let alone food prices.

So, some of us will be eating tree bark, a staple in North Korea.  [Just a little COLA humor, sports fans.]

--Kroger stock rose 6% after the grocery chain beat second-quarter earnings expectations as customer visits increased.  Kroger reported adjusted EPS of 93 cents a share on revenue of $33.91 billion. Consensus was at 91 cents on revenue of $34 billion.

While overall sales were largely flat from a year ago, the grocery company has made particular strides in the digital channel.  It has increased delivery sales by 17% over last year, the number of households shopping online with Kroger rose 14%, while total digital sales jumped 11%.

“We are growing households and increasing customer visits by offering a compelling combination of affordable prices and personalized promotions on great quality products, all through a unique seamless experience,” CEO Rodney McMullen said in a press release.

For the full year, the company is still expecting adjusted EPS to come between $4.30 and $4.50, but it now expects same-store sales ex-fuel to range from 0.75% to 1.75%, compared with prior guidance of 0.25% to 1.75% (or as former NBA star Derrick Coleman would say, ‘Whoopty-damn-do’).

As for the proposed merger between Kroger and Albertsons, now tied up in an antitrust case that is attempting to block the deal, the hearing started on Aug. 26 and is expected to wrap up Friday or next week.

“As we near the close of the FTC’s preliminary injunction hearing, we are confident in the facts and the strength of our position,” McMullen said on Thursday.  “The food industry has always been competitive and will continue to be after this merger.”

The FTC argues the combined company would make up too large of a market share, especially in certain local markets.  But to me, just as in the case of Nippon Steel’s attempt to acquire U.S. Steel, you squelch this merger and good luck with the blowback.

What are Kroger’s and Albertson’s supposed to do against the likes of Walmart and Amazon?  Albertson’s is already threatening it will have to close stores and lay off workers if a judge rejects the planned takeover.

Kroger, on the other hand, would survive, largely as is.

--Campbell Soup Company plans to change the iconic, 155-year-old enterprise, to The Campbell’s Company.

CEO Mark Clouse said the move better reflects Campbell’s growing product line, which currently also includes sauces, snacks and beverages.  Investors will vote on the name change at the company’s annual meeting in November.

The company has sought to adapt to a changing market by acquiring other businesses such as Rao’s sauces maker, Sovos Brands.  Campbell’s portfolio also includes Goldfish crackers, Cape Cod crisps, V8 beverages, and Prego sauces.

Campbell’s expects Goldfish crackers to be a key driver of growth and to ultimately become its largest brand by 2027, which I find a bit surprising.

--Jimmy Fallon became the last of the major network late-night hosts to pare his show to four nights a week.  NBC’s “Tonight Show,” which has aired new episodes from Monday through Friday at 11:35 p.m. EDT, will now air repeats on Fridays for the new TV season, continuing a practice it began over the summer.  It’s part of a cost-cutting move at NBC, challenged by the high costs and lower ratings with late night, that also led to the firing of Seth Meyers’ band.

ABC’s Jimmy Kimmel and CBS’ Stephen Colbert have long aired just four shows a week, and Kimmel now takes summers off entirely, as part of his latest contract renewal, although the show airs new episodes with guest hosts.

“Tonight” now ranks third among total viewers.

--An estimated 67.1 million people watched the presidential debate Tuesday night, a sharp increase from the June debate that led to President Biden dropping out of the race.

The debate between Trump and Harris was run by ABC News but shown on 17 different networks, the Nielsen company said.  Trump-Biden was seen by 51.3 million.

The record for a presidential debate was 84 million, when Trump and Hillary Clinton faced off for the first time in 2016.  The first debate between Biden and Trump in 2020 reached 73.1 million people.

--For those intrigued last week by the announcement of Cinnamon Toast Crunch x Hormel’s Black Label bacon, it will apparently be available for purchase at Walmart locations across the country starting Monday, Sept. 16.  It will also be available at select Kroger stores while supplies last in the coming weeks.

Foreign Affairs

China: Editorial / Washington Post

“Evidence – including a bombshell indictment this week of a senior New York political figure* – is mounting that China is not content to run a police state just at home but is extending a long arm of repression and subversion into the United States, seeking to intimidate protesters, harass critics and silence dissent.  China is using subterfuge and coercion to bully people on U.S. soil, openly defying American rights guarantees and rule of law.  This behavior is a threat to open societies everywhere and cannot be allowed to continue without a strong response.

*Linda Sun, the former aide to New York governors Cuomo and Hochul I referenced last week.

“Another recent example: Revelations that Chinese diplomats and pro-China diaspora groups based in the United States organized demonstrations in San Francisco that harassed and silenced protesters opposed to Beijing’s policies when Chinese leader Xi Jinping visited the city last November. A six-month Post investigation found that, although there was aggression from both sides during the visit, the most extreme was instigated by pro-Chinese activists and carried out by coordinated groups of young men.  Protesters against Mr. Xi were attacked with extended flagpoles and chemical spray, punched, kicked and had fistfuls of sand thrown in their faces.  Demonstrators supporting the Chinese Communist Party and Mr. Xi tore down protesters’ banners and replaced them with Chinese flags. The pro-Xi forces also stalked protesters and used gloves with metal knuckles, metal rods and flagpoles in various scuffles, videos show.

“The pro-Xi demonstrators had a right to express themselves, but not to use violence to deny others the same rights. The Hoover Institution’s Glenn Tiffert, a historian of modern China, told The Post that the Chinese Communist Party ‘mobilizes surrogates to ostracize, intimidate, surround and silence the activists’ with a goal of trying to ‘isolate, bury and extinguish’ others ‘so that it alone monopolizes the field.’....

“China and other despotic nations must get the message: Not on our shores.”

Meanwhile, Cambodia’s Defense Ministry said Wednesday that China is giving its navy two warships of the type it has docked for months at a strategically important base being expanded with Beijing’s funding, which has raised concerns of China establishing a permanent naval presence in the Gulf of Thailand, which connects to the South China Sea, as well as having access to the Malacca Strait and the Indian Ocean.

Cambodia would receive two newly built Type 56 corvettes, smaller vessels typically used for coastal patrols, next year at the earliest.

But China has been expanding facilities at Ream Naval Base, including a lengthy new pier capable of accommodating much larger naval vessels than Cambodia has in its own fleet.

North Korea: Pyongyang offered a rare glimpse into a secretive facility to produce weapons-grade uranium as state media reported Friday that Kim Jong Un visited the area and called for stronger efforts to “exponentially” increase the number of his nuclear weapons.

It was unclear if the site was the main Yongbyon nuclear complex, but it’s the first public disclosure by the North of a uranium-enrichment facility since it showed one at Yongbyon to visiting American scholars in 2010.  The images released by the media could provide outsiders with a valuable source of information for estimating the amount of nuclear ingredients that North Korea has produced.

State media showed Kim being briefed by scientists while walking along lines of tall, gleaming, tubes, assumed to be new centrifuges, but KCNA didn’t say when Kim visited the facilities and where they are located.

Kim said North Korea needs greater preemptive attack capabilities because “anti-(North Korea) nuclear threats perpetrated by the U.S. imperialists-led vassal forces have become more undisguised and crossed the red line,” KCNA reported.

Some analysts speculate the North could conduct nuclear test explosions or long-range missile tests ahead of the U.S. election with the intent to influence the outcome and increase its leverage in future dealings with Washington.

Venezuela: Former Venezuelan opposition presidential candidate Edmundo Gonzalez has fled into exile after being granted asylum in Spain, delivering a major blow to millions who placed their hopes in his upstart campaign to end two decades of single-party rule.

The surprise departure of the man considered by Venezuela’s opposition and several foreign governments to be the legitimate winner of July’s presidential race was announced late Saturday night by Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez.

She said the government decided to grant Gonzalez safe passage out of the country, just days after ordering his arrest, to help restore “the country’s political peace and tranquility.”

Spain’s center-left government said the decision to abandon Venezuela was Gonzalez’s alone and he departed on a plane sent by the country’s air force.  Spain’s foreign minister said his government will grant Gonzalez political asylum.

This is depressing...but Gonzalez would have been arrested and likely put away for a long time.  He has vowed to fight the Maduro government from afar.

Afghanistan: Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“A House committee has released a report on the Biden Administration’s Afghanistan withdrawal in 2021, and the press is dismissing the effort as partisan.  But credit to GOP Rep. Michael McCaul for adding to public knowledge about a debacle whose consequences continue to harm U.S. security and bear on the stakes in November’s election.

“The House Foreign Affairs Committee report is a 350-page indictment of President Biden’s choices at every point, a portrait of a Commander in Chief ‘determined to withdraw.’  A litany of military advisers counseled that the Afghan government would collapse if the U.S. removed the small complement of 2,500 troops in country.

“Gen. Kenneth McKenzie, who ran U.S. Central Command at the time, told the committee ‘he was unequivocal in his advice to the president.’  Mr. Biden’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan conducted a review of U.S. policy in Afghanistan – and allowed Gen. Austin Scott Miller, the senior U.S. commander in Afghanistan, to attend merely ‘a single NSC deputies meeting,’ the report says.  Mr. Sullivan comes in for particular criticism....

“The report says ‘a significant amount of classified information was left to the Taliban’ in the eventual rush to leave.  U.S. personnel recalled a scramble to destroy documents and a bonfire in the Embassy courtyard.

“The President’s refusal to maintain 2,500 troops meant the U.S. abandoned Bagram Air Base with its secure runway.  That meant the evacuation had to be conducted in a panic from Kabul’s civilian airport, with security assistance from the Taliban.  That nightmare resulted in 13 dead American service members from a suicide bomber....

“The Biden Team says Donald Trump left them little option after he negotiated a deal in 2020 with the Taliban to withdraw in 2021. As we said at the time, Mr. Trump struck a bad deal – not least in excluding the Afghan government from the talks.

“But Mr. Biden has shown no such deference to Mr. Trump’s other policies, and the Taliban was violating its Doha promises in any case.  Mr. Biden wanted out by the 20th anniversary of 9/11 for the political symbolism, and he imposed his own catastrophic political timetable.  He owns that choice.

“The press is wrong to consider this old news because the U.S. is still living with the damaging consequences.  The report says the Taliban is even now holding seven American citizens, and the fate of Afghan women is horrific.  Meanwhile, Afghanistan is again becoming a haven for the jihadists of ISIS-K and al Qaeda.  The Islamic State attacks on Moscow and Iran could be preludes to an attack on U.S. targets.  The Biden Administration ‘has not conducted a single strike against ISIS-K since 2021,’ the report says.

“More broadly, the Afghan withdrawal marked the end of credible American deterrence during the Biden Presidency. You can draw a straight line from the withdrawal to Vladimir Putin’s decision to roll into Ukraine, or why the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen aren’t afraid to fire missiles at commercial ships in the Red Sea.

“Vice President Kamala Harris has trumpeted that she was the last person in the room when Mr. Biden decided to withdraw.  What did she tell him? Mr. Trump or the moderators at Tuesday’s debate should ask Ms. Harris whether she still stands by Mr. Biden’s decision.

“The most important duty of the next President is restoring U.S. deterrence to prevent a larger war.  If Ms. Harris defends Biden’s withdrawal, then we’ll know she doesn’t understand the dangerous world we live in.”

Mexico: The Senate approved the general text of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s plan to overhaul the country’s judicial system, bringing his party closer to controlling the only branch of government that eluded the outgoing leader during his six-year term.

The constitutional reform proposals, whose core goal is to elect all federal judges by popular vote, was approved early Wednesday with 86 votes in favor and 41 votes against.

Since the reform changes the constitution, it required a two-thirds majority in both houses of Congress to be approved. After comfortably passing the proposal in the lower house last week, the ruling Morena party and its allies were just one vote shy of reaching the supermajority required to also approve it in the Senate.  But one opposition senator switched sides Tuesday to vote in favor of the proposal.

The United States, as I wrote the other week, vehemently opposed the change, saying it gives the power to elect judges to the cartels.

Random Musings

--Presidential approval ratings....

Gallup: 43% approve of President Biden’s job performance, 53% disapprove; 37% of independents approve (Aug. 1-20)

Rasmussen: 43% approve, 56% disapprove (Sept. 13)

--In a New York Times/Siena College poll of registered voters nationwide, released prior to the debate, Donald Trump had a 48% to 47% lead over Kamala Harris, obviously within the margin of error.

In the seven battleground states...

Arizona...48-48
Georgia...48-48
Michigan...48-46 Harris
Nevada...48-48
North Carolina...48-48
Pennsylvania...49-48 Harris
Wisconsin...49-47 Harris

Again, prior to the debate, 28% of likely voters said they felt they needed to know more about Ms. Harris, while only 9% said they needed to know more about Mr. Trump.

--Trump insisted Wednesday he did a “great job” facing off against Kamala Harris despite the presidential debate being “unfair” and “rigged.”  “It was three on one,” Trump said during an appearance on “Fox & Friends.”  “I thought I did a great job.”

Trump suggested Harris is only pressing for a second debate “because the loser always asks for a rematch.”

“I won the debate...I don’t know if I want to do another debate.”

On the same show, Trump also casually dismissed Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Vice President Harris – saying he much prefers Brittany Mahomes anyway.

“I actually like Mrs. Mahomes much better, if you want to know the truth.  She’s a big Trump fan,” Trump said when asked about Swift’s endorsement. “I like Brittany.  I think Brittany’s great,” Trump continued.  “She’s a big MAGA fan.  Much better than Taylor Swift.”

Mahomes recently made headlines for liking one of Trump’s Instagram posts.

Trump added of Swift: “She seems to always endorse a Democrat and she’ll probably pay a price for it in the marketplace.”

Thursday afternoon, Trump then posted on Truth Social that he will not participate in a second debate with Harris.

“THERE WILL BE NO THIRD DEBATE.  When a prizefighter loses a fight, the first words out of his mouth are, ‘I WANT A REMATCH.’  Polls clearly show that I won the Debate against Comrade Kamala Harris, the Democrats’ Radical Left Candidate, on Tuesday night, and she immediately called for a Second Debate.

“KAMALA SHOULD FOCUS ON WHAT SHE SHOULD HAVE DONE DURING THE LAST ALMOST FOUR YEAR PERIOD,” Trump added.  “THERE WILL BE NO THIRD DEBATE!”

--I didn’t have all the details on Dick Cheney’s endorsement of Kamala Harris last week when I went to post, so for the record, Cheney said there has “never been an individual who is a greater threat to our republic than Donald Trump.”

“He tried to steal the last election using lies and violence to keep himself in power after the voters had rejected him.  He can never be trusted with power again,” the former Veep said.

Liz Cheney made her endorsement for Harris the day before.

Trump raged on Truth Social after: “Dick Cheney is an irrelevant RINO, along with his daughter, who lost by the largest margin in the History of Congressional Races!”

--Last Saturday, Trump posted a warning on Truth Social threatening to jail those “involved in unscrupulous behavior” this election, which he said would be under intense scrutiny.

“WHEN I WIN, those people that CHEATED will be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the Law, which will include long term prison sentences so that this Depravity of Justice does not happen again,” Trump wrote, again sowing doubt about the integrity of the election, even though cheating is incredibly rare.

“Please beware,” he went on, “that this legal exposure extends to Lawyers, Political Operatives, Donors, Illegal Voters, & Corrupt Election Officials.  Those involved in unscrupulous behavior will be sought out, caught, and prosecuted at levels, unfortunately, never seen before in our Country.”

At a rally later that day in Mosinee, Wis., Trump told the crowd that he would “rapidly review the cases of every political prisoner unjustly victimized by the Harris regime” and sign their pardons on his first day back in office.  He also said he would “completely overhaul” what he labeled “Kamala’s corrupt Department of Injustice.”

Speaking in his usual ominous tone, Trump claimed that if the woman he calls “Comrade Kamala Harris gets four more years, you will be living (in) a full-blown Banana Republic” ruled by “anarchy” and “tyranny.”

Thursday, during a fiery speech to department staff and U.S. attorneys from across the country, Attorney General Merrick Garland slammed efforts to turn the Justice Department into a “political weapon.”

Garland decried the “escalation of attacks” against its career staff through “conspiracy theories, dangerous falsehoods, efforts to bully and intimidate career public servants by repeatedly and publicly singling them out, and threats of actual violence.”

“It is dangerous to target and intimidate individual employees of this Department simply for doing their jobs,” he said from DOJ headquarters in Washington.  “And it is outrageous that you have to face these unfounded attacks because you are doing what is right and upholding the rule of law.”

Neither Donald Trump nor his allies were mentioned by name.

“There is not one rule for friends and another for foes, one rule for the powerful and another for the powerless, one rule for the rich and another for the poor, one rule for Democrats and another for Republicans, or different rules depending on one’s race or ethnicity,” the attorney general said.

“Our norms are a promise that we will not allow this nation to become a country where law enforcement is treated as an apparatus of politics,” Garland added to applause.

--Republican Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska, in an op-ed for the Wall Street Journal:

“At a March GOP meeting in my congressional district, I said, ‘I am a Christian first, an American second, and then a Republican.’  Immediately, an older gentleman yelled out, ‘That is why we don’t like you!’  I wondered what bothered him more, the Christian or the American part.

“Our politics have become toxic.  Too many voters treat their political party as the most important thing in their lives. They consider the other side to be their enemy or, even worse, evil. This phenomenon spans both parties.

“James Madison designed a constitutional republic that protects the minority, which means we have to find consensus to govern. He ensured that if the majority says ‘my way or the highway,’ it will end up on the highway.  But in today’s climate, too many prefer getting nothing if getting 80% means the other party gets something too. That makes governing almost impossible.

“My priorities in Congress are to keep our country secure, our economy strong, and our streets and neighborhoods safe. I admire Presidents Washington, Lincoln and Eisenhower for making the tough but necessary decisions for our country, even when it angered their own parties.  I appreciate President Reagan for defeating communism, reinvigorating our military and economy, and restoring our national confidence.  His successes often involved collaboration with Speaker Tip O’Neill to find bipartisan solutions.

“That spirit of bipartisanship is gone.  I won my district’s May primary by 24%.  Afterward, a local GOP member said, ‘We will get behind you if you commit to voting in alignment with the party’s platform.’  I had also announced in March I would support Donald Trump’s re-election.  That wasn’t good enough. Although the Nebraska GOP has endorsed me, none of the three county Republican parties in my district have done the same.

“We live in the greatest country in the world.  To maintain our greatness, we need more focus on consensus-building and less on hating our fellow Americans. We need to make progress on our national debt and the border, improve our children’s education, and modernize our military.

“I remember fondly my three decades in the Air Force. We solved problems and executed missions in the defense of our nation.  We very seldom knew what party our fellow airmen were affiliated with, but we worked together for the good of the country and our unit.  We were Americans first.

“Our fellow citizens aren’t our enemies. Al Qaeda is our enemy.  Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping want our nation to become weaker so they can bully their neighbors and operate from a might-makes-right agenda. They are our real adversaries.

“Amid threats from abroad, Americans need to start demanding more from their elected officials.  We need a country-over-party agenda.  We need the moral courage to do what’s right. We need more statesmen and fewer partisans.  We as citizens must want and demand it.”

--According to figures for 69 U.S. cities compiled by the Major City Chiefs Association, homicides were down 17 percent in the first half of 2024 compared with the same six-month period the prior year, continuing a big fall for a second year in a row.

In Detroit, homicides fell from 123 to 103 – a level not seen since 1966.

This is remarkable, but Boston recorded just four homicides in the first six months of the year. [I double- and triple-checked this.  A few more were killed in July.]

But Charlotte-Mecklenburg, N.C., had 61 killings, up from 45 in the first half of 2023. [Washington Post]

--New York City Mayor Eric Adams named Tom Donlon, a former FBI and counterterrorism official, to serve as the NYPD’s interim commissioner.  The appointment came after Adams said he accepted the resignation of embattled Commissioner Edward Caban, who stepped down amid a federal probe that saw agents seize electronic devices from his home in a stunning raid last week.

Donlon is well known to those of us in the area.  He served as New York’s director of the Office of Homeland Security, ran the FBI’s National Threat Assessment Center and the FBI-NYPD Joint Terrorism Task Force.

--India is now the world’s biggest plastic polluter, responsible for nearly one-fifth of global plastic emissions, according to a new global study highlighting the growing environmental crisis in the world’s most populous country.

Experts warn that the country’s lack of infrastructure for proper waste collection and management is a primary cause of the plastic crisis and, despite attempts at regulation, policies remain fragmented and difficult to enforce.

The study published in the scientific journal Nature by researchers from Britain’s University of Leeds, found that of the 50.2 million metric tons of plastic emitted into the environment annually, India accounted for about 9.3 million tons. The researchers also concede that India’s contribution to plastic emissions may still be an underestimated figure.

Ed Cook, one of the researchers, told This Week in Asia, “The amount of municipal solid waste burned in India is equivalent to that of the next four biggest waste-burning nations – Indonesia, Nigeria, China and Russia.”

--The death toll in Vietnam from Typhoon Yagi hit 233, with dozens missing, mainly the result of landslides.  The capital of Hanoi evacuated thousands of people living near the swollen Red River as its waters rose to a 20-year high.

--Hurricane Francine, a CAT 2 with winds of 100 mph when it hit the Morgan City, Louisiana area on Wednesday evening, initially left 450,000 without power in in the state, and 8-12 inches of rain in some areas, but it at least moved quickly.  I’m not aware of any fatalities.

--SpaceX’s Polaris Dawn successfully lifted off Tuesday morning.  As the capsule entered Earth’s orbit, ground controllers, led by SpaceX launch director Frank Messina, offered words of encouragement to the Polaris Dawn crew, which includes the first SpaceX employees ever to venture to space.

“As you gaze towards the North Star, remember that your courage lights the path for future explorers.”

Thursday, Jared Isaacman, the billionaire leading the mission, and Sarah Gillis, a SpaceX engineer, exited and re-entered their spacecraft in a test of commercial space technologies.

“Back at home, we all have a lot of work to do, but from here, Earth sure looks like a perfect world,” he said while standing in the hatch of the SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule with the planet above his head.

A key goal of the Polaris Dawn mission is the development of more advanced spacesuits that would be needed for any attempt at off-world colonization by SpaceX.  Someone stepping onto Mars one day could be using a version of the spacesuit that SpaceX developed for this mission.  Commercial spacewalks could open up other possibilities, including, as Isaacman suggested, an attempt to perform repairs on the aging Hubble Space Telescope to perform repairs and extend its life in orbit.

--For the record, Boeing’s Starliner, sans crew, returned safely last Friday night, parachuting into New Mexico’s White Sands Missile Range, descending on autopilot through the desert darkness.

Boeing insisted after extensive testing that Starliner was safe to bring the two home, but NASA disagreed and booked a flight with SpaceX instead.  Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams won’t return until February – more than eight months after blasting off on what should have been a 3-hour tour...or thereabouts.

The above-noted Boeing strike, and the company’s cash crunch, only highlight how the Starliner program could easily be a victim.

--Finally, Pope Francis has been on an impossibly difficult trip for an 87-year-old pontiff in failing health...Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, East Timor and Singapore...12 days, the longest of his papacy. 

In East Timor, a nation of 1.3 million, an estimated 600,000 people – nearly half of the population – packed a seaside park Tuesday for the Pope’s final Mass there, held on the same field where St. John Paul II prayed 35 years earlier during the nation’s fight for independence from Indonesia.

The overwhelmingly Catholic Southeast Asian country displayed the esteem with which its people hold the church, which stood by the Timorese in their traumatic battle for freedom that helped draw international attention to their plight.

Francis delighted them by staying at the park until after nightfall to loop around the field in his open-topped popemobile.

“I wish for you peace, that you keep having many children, and that your smile continues to be your children,” Francis said in his native Spanish.

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Pray for the men and women of our armed forces...and all the fallen.

Pray for Ukraine.

God bless America.

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Gold $2609...another all-time high
Oil $69.00...was $66 earlier in the week

Bitcoin: $59,706 [4:00 PM ET, Friday]

Regular Gas: $3.23; Diesel: $3.62 [$3.84 - $4.51 yr. ago]

Returns for the week 9/9-9/13

Dow Jones  +2.6%  [41393]
S&P 500  +4.0%  [5626]
S&P MidCap  +3.2%
Russell 2000  +4.4%
Nasdaq  +5.9%  [17683]

Returns for the period 1/1/24-9/13/24

Dow Jones  +9.8%
S&P 500  +17.9%
S&P MidCap  +9.1%
Russell 2000  +7.7%
Nasdaq  +17.8%

Bulls 43.5
Bears 22.6

Hang in there.

We remember 9/11...never forget...all the heroes...the first responders...those on United Flight 93...those who signed up to serve in the military after...and blessings to all the victims’ family members who will ensure their loved one’s memories are preserved.

Brian Trumbore

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