Week in Review

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Week in Review

09/28/2024

For the week 9/23-9/27

[Posted 4:30 PM ET, Friday]

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Edition 1,327

[No word on the fate of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah at 4:30 p.m. ET...discussed below.]

What a news day.  To start, my thoughts and prayers to those impacted by Hurricane Helene, with at least 35 dead as I go to post this evening, and the toll no doubt going higher. Tonight is going to be scary for those in the mountains of North and South Carolina, eastern Tennessee, Virginia and Kentucky, some areas facing a significant landslide potential, as well as dams breaking, as we had in Tennessee in the last few hours where 54 people had to be rescued off the roof of a hospital.

I heard from a friend in Greenville, S.C., a few hours ago and his neighborhood is a disaster area.  “Almost every other house has a tree on it or on their cars.  All roads blocked out of my street by huge oak trees.”  Of course power lines are down and there is flooding as well.  Thankfully he was personally OK.

But this storm’s impact is so broad that you think about all the major work that will need to be done...and the need for contractors!  This isn’t a town destroyed by a tornado.  This is huge sections of ‘states’ needing help.

God bless all...good luck. 

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President Biden did not grant Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s request for permission to fire American-made missiles deeper into Russia, when they met at the White House yesterday. Instead, Biden announced the delivery of more military aid.

As I describe further below, it wasn’t a good week for Zelensky in New York, at the UN, nor in Washington, and, politically, he mishandled a number of things, including his secret visit to a weapons plant in Scranton, Pennsylvania, as well as a poorly timed interview in the New Yorker, where he slammed Donald Trump’s running mate, JD Vance.

But regarding President Biden, I noted during the 2020 campaign that insiders always said, Biden had a rather high regard for his intellect and foreign policy acumen, and he always thought he was the smartest guy in the room.

Yet history has shown he was often the dumbest, to put it bluntly.  He hasn’t gotten one major foreign policy issue right in his 50 years on the scene, or very close to that.

He did help keep NATO together, but nations like Poland, the Baltic states, Romania, i.e., neighbors of Ukraine, were going to come together anyway with Vlad the Impaler on their doorstep. It was in their self-interest, ditto Sweden and Finland, both of which had to wait for their people to elect more conservative-thinking governments who could convince the natives now was the time to join the security alliance after decades of neutrality.

What Biden did was slow-walk every single Ukrainian request for aid, let alone the ability to defend itself, and reduce civilian casualties and energy misery by taking out the airbases from which Russia has been launching its devastating weapons.  It’s been insane.  Russia crosses every red line imaginable, and Biden worries about poking the bear?!  Huh?

But as the president likes to say, “anyway,” the following is a good recent history.

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“A President’s foreign-policy legacy typically outlasts his term, so it’s worth taking a step back and considering the world Mr. Biden will leave his successor.

“It is a far more dangerous world than Mr. Biden inherited, and far less congenial for U.S. interests, human freedom and democracy.  The latter is tragically ironic since the President has made the global contest between democracy and authoritarians an abiding theme.  Authoritarians have advanced on his watch in every part of the world – Europe, Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, Africa, and even the Americas.

“Mr. Biden’s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan was his single most damaging decision, and it has led to cascading trouble. The Taliban control the country and are reimposing feudal Islamist rule.  His withdrawal has done more harm to more women than anything in decades, while jihadists have revived their terror sanctuary. [Ed. the issue of the Afghan women has always been No. 1 with me when it comes to Biden’s catastrophic move...and I have said over and over  Republicans are idiots if they don’t mention this in their campaign pitches, in the supposed appeal to suburban women which so many of them seem not to get...the very definition of an ‘idiot’.]

“More damaging is the message his withdrawal sent to adversaries about American will and retreat. The credibility of U.S. deterrence collapsed.  Mr. Biden tried to appease Vladimir Putin by blessing the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and refusing to arm Ukraine.  Mr. Putin concluded he could invade Ukraine at limited cost, especially after Mr. Biden blurted out that a ‘minor incursion’ might not elicit the same Western opposition.

“After Kyiv bravely resisted, Mr. Biden sent weapons, but too little and too delayed at every stage of the war.  Even now, after 31 months and 100,000 or more dead, Mr. Biden dithers over letting Ukraine use long-range ATACMS against targets inside Russia.

“His record in the Middle East is worse....

“The U.S. was caught flat-footed when Hamas, aided by Iran, invaded Israel and massacred 1,200 innocents.  His national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, had to edit an online version of a Foreign Affairs essay already published boasting that ‘the region is quieter than it has been for decades.’....

“Meanwhile, Iran marches undeterred to becoming a nuclear power. The Biden Administration mouths pieties that this is unacceptable, but its every action suggests it believes a nuclear Iran is inevitable and trying to stop it is too risky.  When Iran goes nuclear, the security calculus in the world will turn upside down.

“Mr. Biden’s record in the Asia-Pacific is marginally better, at least diplomatically.  He has strengthened U.S. alliances against China, especially with Australia, Japan and the Philippines. The Aukus defense deal is important, as is Japan’s move toward closer military integration with the U.S.

“Yet diplomacy hasn’t been matched by hard power.  The U.S. isn’t building enough submarines to meet its Aukus commitment and U.S. needs.  American bases lack adequate air defenses and long-range missiles to defeat a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.  State Department foot-stomping hasn’t stopped Chinese harassment of Philippine ships....

“Most ominous is the collaboration of these menacing regional powers into a new anti-Western axis.  Iran supplies missiles and drones to Moscow, which may be supplying nuclear know-how to Tehran.  China is aiding Moscow, which now joins Beijing in naval maneuvers.  North Korea also arms Moscow while being protected by China from United Nations sanctions it once voted for.

“All of this and more adds up to the worst decline in world order, and the largest decline in U.S. influence, since the 1930s.  Yet Mr. Biden continues to speak and act as if he’s presided over an era of spreading peace and prosperity.  He has proposed a cut in real defense spending each year of his Presidency, which may be his greatest abdication.

“Addressing this gathering storm will be difficult and dangerous.  The first task will be restoring U.S. deterrence, which will require more hard power and political will.  Whoever wins the White House will have to abandon the failed policies of the Biden years, lest we end up careening into a global conflict with catastrophic consequences.”

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Israel-Hamas-Hezbollah...as the week went down....

Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed that his military will take “whatever action is necessary,” to eliminate the threat on Israel’s northern border, an echo of his own rhetoric in the lead up to Israel’s invasion of Gaza last year.

“No country can accept the wanton rocketing of its cities, we can’t accept it either. We will take whatever action is necessary to restore security and to bring our people safely back to their homes,” Netanyahu said in a video statement.

Hezbollah had been launching dozens of rockets, missiles and drones across the border into Israel in recent days.  The militant group claimed Sunday to have attacked a northern Israeli air base that appeared to be the deepest large barrage fired by the group since hostilities escalated last year.

Israel said it struck hundreds of targets in Lebanon since Saturday.  Lebanon’s Health Ministry said three people had been killed in the strikes overnight.

Hezbollah was still reeling from Israeli attacks that killed senior members of the group’s leadership and dismantled key communications networks. Within a week, explosives placed inside pagers and radios maimed thousands, mostly Hezbollah fighters.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said the explosive attacks “crossed all red lines” and conceded they dealt a “major security and military blow.”

The death toll from a strike on an apartment building in Beirut last Friday that killed one of Hezbollah’s top commanders, Ibrahim Aqil (Akil), rose to 51 on Sunday.

Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi said Sunday: “The price Hezbollah is paying is increasing.  Our strikes will intensify.”

Then things indeed escalated in a big way.

Israeli warplanes struck at least 300 sites across Lebanon on Monday in a fierce bombardment targeting Hezbollah, as the Israeli military seeks to drive home the message it wants 60,000 people who have been displaced in northern Israel to be able to return to their homes.

Hezbollah fired dozens of rockets and drones into northern Israel, setting off air-raid sirens in the city of Tzfat and around the Sea of Galilee, a day after its deputy chief pledged to continue attacking until Israel ended its military campaign in Gaza.  Israeli leaders, for their part, announced a “new stage” of the war intended to stop Hezbollah from firing at Israeli border communities.

The Israeli strikes on Monday were preceded by what Lebanese authorities called “a large number” of automated messages sent to residents of Beirut, the capital, and other regions warning them to evacuate areas where Hezbollah had hidden weapons.  The IDF published a map showing 19 villages and towns in southern Lebanon but did not say which, if any, would be targeted.  The IDF said one house allegedly hid a Russian-made cruise missile before it was blown up in an Israeli strike several weeks ago.

By Monday evening, Lebanon’s health ministry put the death toll at least 490+ and more than 1,200 wounded in that day’s strikes – by far the deadliest day of the conflict in the past year, and more than a third the total killed in the 34-day war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006.

Hundreds of thousands of Lebanese in the south were said to be heading north on highways that were at a standstill.  I’ve been on these roads...a “highway” can be single lane each way, and with tempers flaring, and panic in the air, it’s not conducive to orderly traffic.

Lebanon’s prime minister says Israel’s actions amount to “a war of extermination,” while Israel’s defense minister says strikes will continue “until we achieve our goals – to return the residents of the north safely to their homes.”

The Pentagon said Monday it was sending additional troops to the Middle East in response to the sharp spike in violence.  Press secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder would provide no details on how many additional forces or what they would be tasked to do. The U.S. currently has about 40,000 troops in the region.

We then learned the number involved is minimal and are for helping protect U.S. citizens, including those in Lebanon.

Tuesday, Isreal unleashed another wave of airstrikes across Lebanon – including in a Beirut suburb – vowing to press ahead with its offensive against Hezbollah, as airlines canceled flights, the death toll soared above 500, to 569 by day’s end, according to the Ministry of Health, which doesn’t distinguish between combatants and civilians but said there were 50 children, 94 women and nine paramedics among the dead; thousands more civilians fleeing southern Lebanon, only to get stuck on the roads to Beirut. The strikes had also injured 1,850.

The Israel Defense Forces said Tuesday that it had hit 1,500 “terrorist infrastructure targets in southern Lebanon and deep inside Lebanese territory,” i.e., the Beqaa Valley, the main route for weapons shipments from Syria.  I’ve been on that road a number of times...it’s spooky...nothing but banners across the road of Sheikh Nasrallah and Ayatollah Khomeini (yes, him, the first one).

“Hezbollah today is not the same Hezbollah we knew a week ago,” Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said, claiming the group “has suffered a sequence of blows to its command and control, its fighters, and the means to fight.”

One airstrike in Beirut on Tuesday killed Ibrahim Kobeisi, who Israel described as a top Hezbollah commander with the group’s rocket and missile unit. Hezbollah later confirmed his death.

But Hezbollah still fired 300 projectiles across the border, IDF spokesman Hagari said Tuesday.  While there was no word on damage, there didn’t appear to be any Israeli casualties.

Hezbollah then launched a missile at Tel Aviv early Wednesday in its deepest strike yet into Israel, marking a further escalation, though the missile was intercepted and Israel immediately took out the base from which the missile was fired.  Nonetheless, disconcerting if you live in Tel Aviv, as this has always been the main concern.  How many more of such missiles remain is the big question.  In this case, Hezbollah said it was targeting the headquarters of Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency outside of Tel Aviv.

Lt. Gen. Halevi told soldiers to prepare for a possible incursion into Lebanon, where they would “go in, destroy the enemy there and decisively destroy” Hezbollah’s infrastructure.  Israel has called up two reservist brigades, it announced Wednesday.

Lebanese officials said more than 720 people have been killed in Israeli strikes since Monday, including 25 early Friday (and this was before the massive strike on Hezbollah HQ).

Netanyahu addressed the UN General Assembly today, Friday.  Prior to the speech, he said his team would continue talks with the U.S. over Washington’s ceasefire initiative (backed by France and many others).  But the Biden administration claims the prime minister had given his assent to a truce, but then changed his mind.

This morning at the UN, many delegates having walked out, refusing to hear the Israeli leader, Netanyahu said his nation will “continue degrading Hezbollah” until it achieves its goals along the Lebanon border, further dimming hopes for an internationally backed cease-fire.  He said his government would no longer tolerate daily rocket fire from the area.

“Israel has every right to remove this threat and return our citizens to their homes safely.  And that’s exactly what we’re doing...we’ll continue degrading Hezbollah until all our objectives are met,” Netanyahu said.

“Just imagine if terrorists turned El Paso and San Diego into ghost towns...How long would the American government tolerate that?” he said, shaking his fist in emphasis.  “Yet Israel has been tolerating this intolerable situation for almost a year.  Well, I’ve come here today to say; Enough is enough.”

The prime minister said he traveled to the United Nations to refute the untruths he had heard from other leaders on the same rostrum earlier in the week.

“(After) I heard the lies and slanders leveled at my country by many of the speakers at this podium, I decided to come here and set the record straight.”

He insisted Israel wanted peace but said of Iran: “If you strike us, we will strike you.”  He once again blamed Iran for being behind many of the problems in the region.

“For too long, the world has appeased Iran,” Netanyahu said.  “That appeasement must end.”

Regarding Hamas, Netanyahu said:

“This war can come to an end now.  All that has to happen is for Hamas to surrender, lay down its arms and release all the hostages.  But if they don’t – if they don’t – we will fight until we achieve total victory. Total victory. There is no substitute for it.”

We would learn later that literally, moments after Netanyahu finished his speech, the Israeli military carried out an airstrike on the central headquarters of Hezbollah in Beirut, where a massive explosion leveled a reported six buildings, sending clouds of orange and black smoke billowing in the skies.

Not long before the explosion, thousands were massed in the Daniyeh suburb (Hezbollah’s stronghold) for the funeral of three Hezbollah members, including a senior commander, killed in earlier strikes.

The HQ is located beneath the residential buildings and the blast was so great it shook houses some 30 kilometers north of Beirut.

The IDF then said Hassan Nasrallah was indeed the target.  As I watch BBC News coverage of the blast scene and workers attempting to go through it, it could be some time before we learn the toll, or Hezbollah can make an announcement itself as to Nasrallah’s status.

--Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) ordered all members to stop using any type of communication devices after thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies used by its Hezbollah allies in Lebanon blew up in deadly attacks last week, two senior Iranian security officials told Reuters.

One of the officials told Reuters that a large-scale operation was underway by the IRGC to inspect all devices, not just communications equipment. He said most of these devices were either homemade or imported from China and Russia.

Iran was concerned about infiltration by Israeli agents, including Iranians on Israel’s payroll and a thorough investigation of personnel has already begun, targeting mid and high-ranking members of the IRGC, added the official.

“This includes scrutiny of their bank accounts both in Iran and abroad, as well as their travel history and that of their families,” the security official said.

--Iran’s new president Massoud Pezeshkian, in New York for the UN General Assembly, said Iran was prepared to de-escalate tensions with Israel as long as it sees the same level of commitment on the other side.

“We’re willing to put all our weapons aside so long as Israel is willing to do the same,” Pezeshkian told reporters Monday.  “We’re not seeking to destabilize the region.”

You can stop laughing.

--Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“President Biden was right on one point in his speech to the United Nations General Assembly on Tuesday: ‘Hezbollah, unprovoked, joined the Oct. 7 attack launching rockets into Israel.’ But when he vowed that ‘a diplomatic solution is still possible’ and ‘remains the only path to lasting security,’ we wonder where he’s been for the past 11 months.

“Israel gave those months over to diplomacy on its northern front, even as Hezbollah fired 8,500 rockets and forced 60,000 Israelis from their homes.  But the U.S.-led talks went nowhere as Mr. Biden pressed Israel not to hit Hezbollah too hard and allowed billions of dollars in oil revenue to flow to the terrorists’ masters in Iran.

“ ‘My fellow leaders, I truly believe we’re at another inflection point in world history,’ Mr. Biden said.  ‘Will we stand behind the principles that unite us?  Will we stand firm against aggression?’  The rhetoric is only as powerful as the foreign policy it promotes, and as impotent as the forum that received it.

“U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned Tuesday of Lebanon ‘becoming another Gaza.’ Nice of him to wake up; since 2006, U.N. peacekeepers have done nothing to stop Hezbollah from taking over the Security Council-mandated buffer zone in southern Lebanon. Now Israel has to do it for them.

“Following the exploding pagers and the successful attack on Hezbollah’s elite Radwan Force commanders, Israel this week dropped evacuation notices and bombed Hezbollah’s missile stores.  Israel says it destroyed tens of thousands of missiles and launchers, most hidden in civilian homes, leaving Hezbollah without half its strategic arsenal....

“Hezbollah has replied with hundreds of rockets but failed to do much damage. It has expanded its range to the cities of Safed and Haifa, but notably it has avoided Tel Aviv.  Perhaps it knows it can expect Israel’s retaliation on Beirut.

“Mr. Biden said, ‘Full-scale war is not in anyone’s interest.’ But by shredding Hezbollah’s missile supply, communications and command structure, Israel is trying to prevent the group from launching the large, coordinated barrages that might overwhelm the Iron Dome rocket defenses. If Hezbollah can’t do that damage, ‘full-scale war’ won’t mean what it used to.

“One lesson of Oct. 7 is that Israel can’t let terrorists build up armies, even if they seem deterred. Northern Israel could never be safe if Hezbollah retains its arsenal.  The Israeli strikes will degrade Hezbollah’s capabilities, perhaps for many years.

“This is progress against Iran’s ‘ring of fire’ around Israel.  Hezbollah came to Hamas’ aid, but Hamas is now too weakened to return the favor.  The wrecking of one proxy weakens the network.  The wrecking of another would peel back the Iranian nuclear program’s layers of defense. These are the strategic stakes as Israel fights to return its citizens to their homes and remove the sword of Tehran overhead.”

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Russia-Ukraine

--Saturday night, Russia launched new strikes in the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv that hit high-rise apartment buildings, leaving at least 21 wounded in a second consecutive nighttime attack, authorities said.  The first one on Friday injured 15.

Russia also launched 80 Shahed drones and two missiles at Ukraine overnight into Sunday, but Ukraine air defenses shot down or disabled 77 of the 82.  No reports on injuries.

Russian forces shelled a mine west of the embattled city of Pokrovsk, killing two late Saturday.

--President Zelensky, in a highly guarded excursion, visited an artillery production factory in Pennsylvania, Sunday.  His message: “I am grateful to the people of Scranton, Pennsylvania, and all the states where Americans are building this incredible arsenal of global freedom,” he said on social media, with a video of his trip. “I emphasized the dedication of the workers, which is truly inspiring – they are helping Ukraine stand strong in our fight for freedom,” Zelensky wrote. 

The Ukrainian leader also reportedly carried a “victory plan” for his visit with President Biden and VP Harris on Thursday.  He was also slated to meet with former President Trump.

--The U.S. said it will send Ukraine an undisclosed number of medium-range cluster bombs and an array of rockets, artillery and armored vehicles in a military aid package totaling about $375 million, U.S. officials said Tuesday.

The move was then announced formally on Wednesday, as Zelensky used his appearance at the UN General Assembly to shore up support and persuade the U.S. to allow his troops to use long-range weapons to strike deeper into Russia.  Zelensky was to meet with President Biden and Vice President Harris in Washington on Thursday.

The latest arms package comes as nearly $6 billion in funding for aid to Ukraine could expire at the end of the month unless Congress acts to extend the Pentagon’s authority to send weapons from its stockpile to Kyiv.  While Congressional leaders announced the above-mentioned agreement on a short-term spending bill, it’s unclear if any language extending the Pentagon authority to send weapons to Ukraine will be added to the temporary measure as negotiations with Congress continue.

The ’victory plan’ that Zelensky is presenting to the White House this week asks the Biden administration to do something it has not achieved in the two and a half years since Russia invaded Ukraine: act quickly to support Kyiv’s campaign.  Western dawdling has amplified Ukraine’s losses, and Kyiv’s aim to have its plan implemented before a new U.S. president takes office in January could be out of reach, according to diplomats and analysts.

While specifics on the plan were kept under wraps, the contours of it have emerged, including the need for fast action on decisions Western allies have been mulling since the full-scale invasion began in 2022.

It includes the security guarantee of NATO membership, according to Zelensky’s chief of staff Andriy Yermak – a principal demand of Kyiv and Moscow’s key point of contention.  Western allies, including the U.S., have been skeptical about this option.

Zelensky has continued to seek permission to use long-range weapons to strike deep inside Russian territory, another red line for some of Ukraine’s supporters.

“Partners often say, ‘We will be with Ukraine until its victory.’  Now we clearly show how Ukraine can win and what is needed for this.  Very specific things,’ Zelensky told reporters ahead of the trip.  “Let’s do all this today, while all the officials who want victory for Ukraine are still in official positions.”

The victory plan is Kyiv’s response to rising pressure from Western allies and war-weary Ukrainians to negotiate a cease-fire.  A deal with Russia would almost certainly be unfavorable for Ukraine, which has lost a fifth of its territory and tens of thousands of lives in the conflict.

Unless, Kyiv calculates, its western partners act quickly. Ukraine’s allies have routinely mulled over arms requests, delaying until their strategic value is diminished.  Under the plan, from October to December, they must dramatically strengthen Kyiv’s hand.

Wednesday at the UN, Zelensky said in his address: “Russia’s war against Ukraine will end because the UN Charter will work.  It must work.  Our Ukrainian right to self-defense must prevail.”

He also asked the international community not to “tire” of Russia’s war on his country, nor to imagine that “peace talks” would bring peace.  “From the very first second of this war, Russia has been doing things that cannot possibly be justified under the UN Charter.  Every destroyed Ukrainian city, every burned village, and there are already hundreds and hundreds, serves as proof that Russia is committing an international crime. And that’s why this war can’t simply ‘fade away.’  That’s why this war can’t be calmed by talks,” Zelensky said.

He also told the UN that Russia is planning deeper attacks on his country’s nuclear power plants, warning of possible “nuclear disaster.”

“Radiation does not respect state borders, and many nations could feel a devastating effect,” Zelensky warned the General Assembly. “Any critical incident in the energy system could lead to a nuclear disaster – a day like that must never come.”

“Moscow needs to understand this, and this depends in part of your determination to put pressure on the aggressor.”

Zelensky said in his speech that Russia had destroyed all of Ukraine’s thermal power plants and a large part of its hydroelectric capacity as a way to “torment” Ukrainians ahead of winter.  “Energy must stop being used as a weapon.”

Vladimir Putin said Wednesday night, after a meeting with his Security Council, that Russia would consider an attack from a non-nuclear state that was backed by a nuclear-armed one to be a “joint attack,” in what could be construed as a threat to use nuclear weapons in the war.

Putin said his government was considering changing the rules and preconditions around which Russia would use its nuclear arsenal.

He said that Russia would consider such a “possibility” of using nuclear weapons if it detected the start of a massive launch of missiles aircraft and drones into its territory, which presented a “critical threat” to the country’s sovereignty.

Putin added the country’s nuclear arms were “the most important guarantee of security of our state and its citizens.”

Responding to Putin’s remarks, Zelensky’s chief of staff Yermak said Russia “no longer has anything other than nuclear blackmail to intimidate the world.”

Thursday, in a meeting with Zelensky, Vice President Harris blasted those calling for Ukraine to be willing to cede territory to Russia as part of any peace deal, saying it was “dangerous and unacceptable.”

In a veiled criticism of Donald Trump’s push for Ukraine to quickly cut a deal to end the war, Harris said, “They are not proposals for peace.  Instead, they are proposals for surrender.”

Harris also rejected calls for the U.S. to walk away from its global role and warned that potential aggressors could be emboldened if Putin emerges victorious.

President Zelensky then met with Donald Trump Friday morning, with Trump telling reporters afterward he had a “very good relationship” with Zelensky, but then noted quickly, “I also have a very good relationship with President Putin.”

According to the Guardian, “Zelensky immediately responded to Trump’s comments about his positive relationship with Putin and said that he hopes that he and Trump have a better relationship than the one between Putin and Trump.”

The Wall Street Journal reported that Zelensky’s so-called victory plan did not impress White House officials who saw it as “little more than a repackaged request for more weapons and the lifting of restrictions on long-range missiles.”

--Ukrainian and Russian forces were battling in the east, including hand-to-hand combat in the Kharkiv border region where Ukraine has driven Russia out of a huge processing plant in the town of Vovchansk that had been occupied for four months, officials said Tuesday.  At the same time, Ukrainian troops continue to hold ground in Russia’s Kursk region after a daring incursion there last month.

--Ukrainian authorities Friday said at least three people were killed by a Russian strike against a Danube River port that was repeatedly attacked last year after it became a lifeline for key exports amid the Kremlin’s invasion.  Fourteen others were injured in the attack on Izmail, Odesa region, Governor Oleh Kiper said on Telegram.

Romania scrambled fighter jets after detecting groups of drones approaching Ukraine near its border and one may have entered its airspace for a period of minutes, though no impact was reported, according to the Romanian Defense Ministry.

A Russian missile also hit a building by the national police force in Zelensky’s home city of Kryvyi Rih, potentially leaving civilians under the rubble.

--A UN report said human rights in Russia have “severely deteriorated” since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, culminating in a “systematic crackdown” on civil society.

The investigation details police brutality, widespread repression of independent media and persistent attempts to silence Kremlin critics using punitive new laws.

Mariana Katzarova, the UN’s special investigator on human rights in Russia, was denied entry into the country and compiled the report by speaking to political groups, activists and lawyers.

She found “credible reports” of torture and allegations of sexual violence, rape and threats of sexual abuse by police.

The Kremlin has yet to comment on the report.

The latest UN study pays particular attention to how the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine has accelerated what it says was previously a “steady decline.”

It details how laws passed in recent years targeting the spread of so-called fake news, and individuals or organizations deemed to have received foreign support, have sought to “muzzle” any opposition, both physically and online.

The new laws have led to “mass arbitrary arrests.”

Among the cases the report highlights is that of Artyom Kamardin, who was jailed for seven years for reading an anti-war poem in public – an act authorities deemed to be “inciting hatred.”

Ms. Katzarova told the BBC: “Russians are getting shockingly long prison sentences.

“It’s seven years for reading an anti-war poem, or saying a prayer by a priest which was against the war, or producing a play perceived to be anti-war.  Two women are still in prison for that in Russia.”

--Editorial / Washington Post

“The Biden administration is weighing whether to allow Ukraine to use Western-supplied long-range missiles to strike military targets deep inside Russian territory.  After President Joe Biden met with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer at the White House this month, officials said no decision was imminent; they have asked Kyiv for more clarification on how the weapons will be used. But the approval needs to come soon to allow Ukraine to take advantage of existing target opportunities across the border, before Russian President Vladimir Putin can further damage Ukraine’s vital infrastructure.

“Ukraine is asking for permission to use Britain’s air-launched Storm Shadow missiles, which have a range of about 155 miles and are good for use against high value, stationary targets. Mr. Starmer appears inclined to give the go ahead but wants Mr. Biden’s approval to show a coordinated strategy and preserve unity among Ukraine’s Western allies.  Ukraine also wants U.S. Army Tactical Missile Systems, known as ATACMS, with a range of nearly 200 miles.  Ukraine has already taken delivery of some midrange ATACMS, with a 106-mile range, but with limitations on how they may be used.  Mr. Biden seems less inclined to act quickly on Kyiv’s request for the ATACMS. But they should all be part of the package, since Ukraine urgently needs all the weapons it can get to continue to stave off Mr. Putin’s aggression.

“Mr. Biden’s reluctance is rooted in his understandable caution about escalating conflict with Russia....

“Mr. Putin has stoked the fear by issuing ‘red lines’ and implicitly threatening nuclear war.  But in each previous case – the delivery of tanks, then the transfer of F-16 fighter jets, then permission to attack on Russian soil – Mr. Putin has not followed through on his threats.  There’s no reason to think now he would risk a wider war with NATO at a time when his forces are already severely depleted. More likely, he could align himself with Iran or its proxies to strike at U.S. forces in the Middle East – a risk worth weighing, but one that is not as dangerous as direct Russia-NATO conflict....

“There are serious questions for Mr. Biden to consider. The Ukrainians might need NATO training and assistance. The new systems might also need strict rules to make sure only legitimate military targets, not civilian infrastructure, are hit.  But the stakes are high in this conflict – the survival of democracy, the principle of the inviolability of borders, the future of the European Union and U.S. credibility. Mr. Biden needs to give permission and set the ground rules quickly.”

George F. Will / Washington Post

“We have now at last got far enough ahead of barbarism to control it, and to avert it, if only we realize what is afoot and make up our minds in good time.” – Winston Churchill, 1938 radio broadcast to the United State.

“Barbarism is on the ballot this year. About Ukraine’s future, as about everything important, Vice President Kamala Harris is largely uninformative, and perhaps uninformed.  Even worse, the Trump-Vance ticket is why Russian President Vladimir Putin’s supporters – such as Hungary’s authoritarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban (Donald Trump swoons about his being ‘strong,’ a weak person’s adjective of admiration) – eagerly await Nov. 5, U.S. Election Day.  And then winter.

“Winter rescued Russia from Napoleon’s aggression, and, 129 years later, from Hitler’s.  Eighty-three years after that, Putin expects winter to help his aggression succeed.  Hence, when his barbarian military is not targeting a children’s hospital, a nursing home or civilians’ apartments, it is degrading energy sources, the life-sustaining infrastructure of modern nations.  Ukrainians are scavenging batteries from scrapped Teslas for winter power.

“Zoltan Barany, a University of Texas political scientist, writes in the Journal of Democracy that Russia’s military ‘is a quintessential reflection of the state that created it’: corrupt (a Russian prosecutor ‘admitted that about a fifth of the Defense Ministry’s budget was stolen; other officials said that it could be as high as two-fifths’), brutal, hyper-centralized and institutionally stupid because it is hostile to debate. And until Feb. 24, 2022, inexperienced: Its engagements in Georgia (where Russian officers had to borrow war correspondents’ cellphones to reach troops), Crimea and Syria were ‘against feeble adversaries and said zero about how Russian forces would perform in a conventional land war against a resolute, well-armed enemy.’  Furthermore, ‘The 2018 decision to revive the post of zampolit (political officer) in units as small as infantry companies harks back to the Soviet era and signals that the state doubts its soldiers’ loyalty.’

“Sen. JD Vance, the Metternich from Middletown, Ohio, says Ukraine does not have an ‘achievable objective.’  Ukraine’s objective is to thwart Putin’s, which is to erase Ukraine. The logic of Vance’s diagnosis is to stop resisting Putin.

“This presidential campaign features the least discussion of national security since the nation’s 1990s, post-Cold War proxy war, in which the most serious sacrifices – of lives – are done by others.  The former commander in chief will not say it is vital for Ukraine to prevail.

“Imagine what our watching enemies will conclude if U.S. policy, particularly regarding permission for Ukraine to strike military targets deep in Russia, continues to be timid, tentative and subject to minute presidential calibrations akin to those Lyndon B. Johnson made when personally approving bombing targets in Vietnam....

“Today, U.S. credibility, the coin that purchases deterrence, depends on the success of Ukraine, which does the dying.  U.S. ‘sacrifices’ are merely material and negligible as a portion of gross domestic product. They do not noticeably subtract from government’s domestic spending because the government’s incontinent borrowing has long-since severed the connection between revenue and outlays....

“If Putin succeeds, historians generations hence might designate Russia’s war against Ukraine – as they did, after World War II, the Spanish Civil War (1936-39) – the ‘great rehearsal’: a bloody prologue to a blood-soaked aftermath.  The politician and novelist John Buchan, Churchill’s contemporary, said: ‘You think that a wall as solid as the earth separates civilization from barbarism. I tell you the division is a thread, a sheet of glass.’  We have been warned, redundantly, by wise leaders and past events, and the sound of cracking glass.”

In keeping with Mr. Will’s column, on the campaign trail in Savannah, Georgia, Tuesday, former President Trump praised Russia’s military as he argued against giving Ukraine more military aid.

“What happens if [the Russians] win? That’s what they do, is they fight wars,” Trump told his audience.  “As somebody told me the other day, they beat Hitler, they beat Napoleon. That’s what they do.  They fight. And it’s not pleasant.”

Trump then mocked President Zelensky as “the greatest salesman on Earth,” and lied about the amount of U.S. aid given to Ukraine, as he does every single economic figure.

At an event in North Carolina Wednesday, Trump described Ukraine in bleak and mournful terms, referring to its people as “dead” and the country itself as “demolished,” further raising questions about how much he would be willing to concede in a negotiation over the country’s future.

--The Russian foreign ministry said at least 31 civilians were killed and 256 wounded in the Ukrainian offensive in Russia’s Kursk region as of September 5th.

Ukraine on Aug. 6th launched the biggest foreign attack on Russia since the second World War, busting through the border into the western Kursk region supported by swarms of drones and heavy weaponry, including western-made arms.

Russia said 131,000 civilians had left the most dangerous areas of the Kursk region.

--- 

Wall Street and the Economy

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, a voting member on the FOMC this year, said the U.S. economy is close to normal rates of inflation and unemployment and the Fed needs monetary policy to “normalize” as well, suggesting openness to a quick pace of interest rate cuts in coming months.

“Progress on inflation and the cooling of the labor market have emerged more quickly than I imagined at the beginning of the summer,” Bostic said in comments prepared for delivery to the European Economics and Financial Center. “In this moment, I envision normalizing monetary policy sooner than I thought would be appropriate even a few months ago.”

“Normalizing” refers to returning the Fed’s policy rate of interest to a level that neither encourages or discourages investment and spending, a level felt to be somewhat below the range of 4.75% to 5% set last week after the Fed began easing policy with a half-point cut.

Bostic said he supported the half-point cut approved last week as a compromise between the fact that inflation remains a half-point above the Fed’s 2% target, with housing prices still rising faster than hoped for, and the sense the economy and the job market are slowing.

Well, the Fed got what it wanted this week with the release of its preferred inflation barometer, the PCE, personal consumption expenditures index, which showed prices rising 0.1% in August, 2.2% year-over-year; and on core, ex-food and energy, 0.1% and 2.7%, the last figure as expected but further proof inflation is sticky, because that is the single data point the Fed looks at more than any other.

That said, this is good enough for the Fed to continue lowering rates when it meets in November and December.

Separately, personal income in August rose less than expected, 0.2%, with consumption also up 0.2%.

We also had a final look at second-quarter GDP, 3.0%, same as the last look, though the Bureau of Economic Analysis issued one of its periodic updates of past data, and, for example, GDP was revised upwards for 2021, 2022, and 2023.

2021...6.1% vs. 5.8% prior
2022...2.5% vs. 1.9% prior
2023...2.9% vs. 2.5% prior

As in the post-pandemic recovery was better than previously thought.

Interestingly, the only two years you can fairly grade Donald Trump on the economy, 2018 and 2019, GDP rose 2.9% and 2.3%.

Compare these growth rates to 2022 and 2023 (to take out the worst and best surrounding the pandemic), and you have 2.5% and 2.9%.

That’s how I look at it.  Of course, when you factor in real (inflation adjusted) income, the Trump years were superior. 

Among the other economic data on the week, the Case-Shiller home price index for July showed prices in the 20-city index rose 0.3% month-over-month, and 5.9% year-over-year.

August new home sales came in a little better than expected, a 716,000 annualized pace.

August durable goods, an always volatile dataset, were unchanged, but this was versus a whopping 9.9% increase in new orders the prior month.  Frankly, I think this metric has become rather worthless.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow barometer for third-quarter growth is at 3.1%.

Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed-rate mortgage ticked down to 6.08%.

Important news next week on the manufacturing and service sector front, as well as the September jobs report.

Lastly, congressional leaders announced an agreement Sunday on a short-term spending bill that will fund federal agencies for about three months, averting a possible partial government shutdown when the new budget year begins Oct. 1 and pushing final decisions until after the November election.

At the urging of the most conservative members of his conference, House Speaker Mike Johnson, had linked temporary funding with a mandate that would have compelled states to require proof of citizenship when people register to vote.

But Johnson could not get all Republicans on board even as the party’s presidential nominee, Donald Trump, insisted on that package.  Trump said Republican lawmakers should not support a stop-gap measure without the voting requirement, but the bill went down to defeat anyway, with 14 Republicans opposing it.

Bipartisan negotiations began in earnest shortly after that, with leadership agreeing to extend funding into mid-December, or after the election.

In a letter to Republican colleagues, Johnson said the budget measure would be “very narrow, bare bones” and include “only the extensions that are absolutely necessary.”

“While this is not the solution any of us prefer, it is the most prudent path forward under the present circumstances,” Johnson wrote.  “As history has taught and current polling affirms, shutting the government down less than 40 days from a fateful election would be an act of political malpractice.”

Congress then on Wednesday passed a three-month stopgap spending bill, funding the government through Dec. 20, sending the legislation to President Biden’s desk for his signature.  The legislation, which includes $231 million in emergency funding for the Secret Service, cleared the House 341-82, including support from 209 Democrats and 132 Republicans.  All 82 “no” votes came from Republicans.  In the Senate, the bill passed 78-18.

So, when the boys and girls return after Thanksgiving recess, they will have weeks to get a final deal done, or they’ll just kick the can further down the road.

Europe and Asia

We had flash PMIs for the month of September in the eurozone, courtesy of S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank.

The composite came in at 48.9 (August 51.0), an 8-month low.  The manufacturing figure was 44.5, a 9-month low, and the services figure 50.5, a 7-month low. [50 the dividing line between growth and contraction.]

Germany: mfg. 40.5, 12-mo. low; services 50.6, 6-mo. low.
France: mfg. 42.8, 8-mo. low; services 48.3, 6-mo. low.

UK: mfg. 53.5; services 52.8.

Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist HCB:

“The eurozone is heading towards stagnation.  After the Olympic effect had temporarily boosted France, the eurozone heavyweight economy, the Composite PMI fell in September to the largest extent in 15 months. The index has now dipped below the expansionary threshold.  Considering the rapid decline in new orders and the order backlog, it doesn’t take much imagination to foresee a further weakening of the economy.”

Turning to Asia...nothing of note on the data front out of China this week.

But, boy, there was a lot of other news, and the Chinese stock market staged its biggest rally in years.

China’s central bank lowered the interest rate charged on its one-year policy loans by the most on record, kicking off a sweeping program to revive confidence in the world’s second-largest economy.

The People’s Bank of China cut the rate of the medium-term lending facility to 2% from 2.3%, according to a statement on Wednesday.  The 30-basis-point cut was the biggest since the bank began using the monetary tool to guide market interest rates in 2016.

The expected move followed Governor Pan Gongsheng’s announcement the previous day of a broad stimulus package that amounted to an adrenaline shot for an economy on the cusp of a deflationary spiral.

Pan announced plans to reduce the amount of money banks must hold in reserve to the lowest level since at least 2018, as well as cutting a key short-term interest rate, the first time reductions to both measures were revealed on the same day since at least 2015.

Those moves were followed by a slew of other announcement that fueled gains in China’s beleaguered equity market.  The central bank chief unveiled a package to shore up the nation’s troubled property sector, including lowering borrowing costs on as much as $5.3 trillion in mortgages and easing rules for second-home purchases.

Thursday morning, noted hedge fund investor (and NFL owner) David Tepper went on CNBC specifically to talk of the import of China’s moves as he said he was buying everything China, stocks (established companies like Alibaba), ETFs, you name it, because he said the move by economic policymakers was huge...a real game-changer.  Tepper is very good at identifying such moments. [The Shanghai Composite rose a stupendous 13% on the week.]

Friday, China cut the amount of cash banks must keep in reserve and lowered a key policy rate, as announced earlier by central bank chief Pan, as Beijing continues to roll out stimulus measures.

The Politburo, comprised of the ruling Communist Party’s 24 most-senior officials including President Xi Jinping, vowed in a statement to strengthen fiscal and monetary policies and pledged to “strive to achieve” the government’s annual growth target of around 5%.

Germany: Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) staved off the far-right in a regional election on Sunday, likely providing him only a brief reprieve from growing criticism of his leadership within his own party.

The center-left SPD staged a last-minute comeback in the eastern state of Brandenburg, where they have ruled since reunification in 1990 and Scholz has his own constituency, to win the election on 30.9% of the vote.

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which had topped polls for the past two years in the state, won 29.2%, according to provisional official results by the State Electoral Commissioner.

Still the AfD was up 5.7 percentage points since the last Brandenburg election five years ago, after it earlier this month became the first far-right party to win a state election in Germany since World War II.

Japan’s flash PMIs for September came in at 49.6 for manufacturing vs. 49.8 prior, and a solid 53.9 non-manufacturing.

Street Bytes

--The Dow Jones and S&P 500 hit new records this week, the Dow finishing at a record 42313 today, up 0.6% on the week, the S&P up 0.6% as well, its record high set yesterday.  Nasdaq finished up 1.0% but is still shy of a new record mark.

--U.S. Treasury Yields

6-mo. 4.38%  2-yr. 3.56%  10-yr. 3.75%  30-yr. 4.10%

Little movement on the week after the prior week’s rate cut.  But next week’s data, and the geopolitical situation, could move the market.

--Oil prices fell back below the $70 level (West Texas Intermediate), primarily on the news Saudi Arabia was dropping its crude oil price target in preparation for increased production.  Additionally, Libya’s rival factions have agreed on a process to appoint a central bank governor, which could ease the oil revenue crisis and restore exports.  And despite China’s monetary support measures intended to stimulate activity in the world’s largest oil consumer, there are still doubts it will be successful.

--Middle East tensions helped propel gold to new highs, again, while silver hit levels not seen since late May.  China’s moves to support the economy also helped safe-haven assets.

--Strikes at key U.S. ports could take place as early as Tuesday, Oct. 1, threatening a fresh bout of supply-chain strain in battleground states just weeks before the election.

Some 45,000 dockworkers at every major eastern and Gulf coast port are threatening to walk out, with talks at a stalemate.

A weeklong strike could upend everything from auto parts to fresh meat and fruit and cost the economy as much as $7.5 billion.

As I go to post, a strike looks likely.  It would be the first one on the east coast since 1977.

--The Biden administration announced a sweeping initiative on Monday to ban Chinese-developed software from internet-connected cars in the United States, justifying the move on national security grounds.  The action is intended to prevent Chinese intelligence agencies from monitoring the movements of Americans or using the vehicles’ electronics as a pathway into the U.S. electric grid or other critical infrastructure.

The move follows the same logic that resulted in the ban on Huawei telecommunications equipment and the investigations into Chinese-made cranes operating at American ports.

Combined with congressional efforts to force TikTok to cut its ties with its Chinese owners, the initiative is a major addition to the administration’s efforts to seal off what it views as major cybervulnerabilities for the U.S.

“Many of these technologies collect large volumes of information on drivers,” Jake Sullivan, national security advisor, told reporters on Sunday. They also connect constantly with personal devices, with other cars, with U.S. critical infrastructure and with the original manufacturers of vehicles and components.

He added: “And for that reason, connected vehicles and the technology they use bring new vulnerabilities and threats, especially in the case of vehicles or components developed in the P.R.C. and other countries of concern,” he said, using the initials for the People’s Republic of China.

Combating real and perceived Chinese threats is one of the few issues that have won both Democratic and Republican support, though many experts on China believe that the fear of Beijing has gone too far – and that it is also hurting American consumers.

--The U.S. Justice Department said it filed an antitrust lawsuit against Visa on Tuesday, accusing the financial giant of unfairly stifling competition in debit cards, the latest in a string of cases aimed at deterring monopolistic behavior by big companies.

For more than a decade, the government claims, Visa has entered into de facto exclusive agreements with merchants and banks, encouraging them to route the bulk of their transactions through Visa’s payment network.  The DOJ claims the company maintained a monopoly in large part by imposing or threatening to impose higher fees on merchants that also use other payment networks to process debit transactions.

The lawsuit stems from a yearslong investigation, and is the latest effort by enforcers under the Biden administration to target corporate middlemen, which it says needlessly increase fees, and take aim at power wielded by companies spanning technology to agriculture.

And there is no bigger middleman than Visa, which processed $3.8 trillion in U.S. debit transactions in the year through June, generating over $7 billion in processing fees per year, the Justice Department said.  Those account for more than 60 percent of all such transactions.

“Visa’s unlawful conduct affects not just the price of one thing, but the price of nearly everything,” Attorney General Merrick B. Garland said in a statement.

--Boeing, in negotiations with its striking largest union, offered a 30% wage increase over four years, up from a previous 25% increase that was turned down this month by 33,000 members of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers.  Boeing said the terms are final and only valid until the end of Sept. 27, as it seeks to raise pressure on the other side to accept.  Union leaders then turned it down, without giving it to its members for a vote.

But then late Thursday, the National Transportation Safety Board urged the Federal Aviation Administration and Boeing to address a potential hazard on about 350 of Boeing’s 737 MAX models currently flying.

Accident investigators with the NTSB said a flaw led to cockpit pedals that control the jet’s rudder getting stuck after a United 737 MAX landed at Newark Liberty International Airport in February.

The unusual recommendation doesn’t necessarily mean the 737s in question will be taken out of service.  The FAA routinely orders airlines to fix what it deems unsafe conditions discovered on aircraft currently in service, but often won’t require the work immediately unless it determines there is an urgent risk of an accident. Fixes can often be done over months or years during routine maintenance.

But this was another example of Boeing’s ongoing quality control issues.

--TSA checkpoint numbers vs. 2023

9/26...97 percent of 2023 levels...no doubt impacted by Hurricane/Tropical Storm Helene
9/25...102
9/24...100
9/23...101
9/22...106
9/21...102
9/20...102
9/19...102

--Apollo Global Management Inc. offered to make a multibillion-dollar investment in Intel Corp., according to people familiar with the matter, in a move that would be a vote of confidence in the chipmaker’s turnaround strategy.

The alternative asset manager has indicated in recent days it would be willing to make an equity-like investment of as much as $5 billion in Intel, according to reports.

Under CEO Pat Gelsinger, Intel has been working on an expensive plan to remake itself and bring in new products, technology and outside customers.  Still, the company is headed for its third consecutive year of shrinking sales and its shares have lost more than 50% of their value this year.  While Apollo may best be known today for its insurance, buyout and credit strategies, the firm started out in the 1990s as a distressed-investing specialist.

--Morgan Stanley’s influential analyst Adam Jonas cut his rating on the U.S. auto industry to “inline” from “attractive” on Wednesday and shares in Ford Motor and General Motors both fell more than 4%.  Essentially, Jonas doesn’t believe investors should have larger-than-average exposure to car stocks in their portfolios anymore.  He cited rising U.S. dealer inventories, poor vehicle affordability, and competition in the Chinese market.  He cut Ford, specifically, to Hold from Buy. He cut GM from Hold to Sell.

But Jonas rates Tesla shares a Buy and that stock rose a bit, continuing a strong streak.  Wall Street is expecting solid third-quarter delivery numbers when the company reports them on Oct. 2.  Analysts are also pointing to Tesla’s robotaxi event scheduled for Oct. 10.

--Former President Donald Trump threatened to slap John Deere with a 200% tariff if the farm equipment supplier followed through on plans to move some production to Mexico.

“I love the country, but as you know, they’ve announced a few days ago that they’re gonna move a lot of their manufacturing business to Mexico,” Trump said at a roundtable in Pennsylvania with farmers and manufacturers Monday.

“I’m just notifying John Deere right now: If you do that, we’re putting a 200% tariff on everything that you want to sell into the United States.”

Trump said the manufacturing shift to Mexico is hurting “our farmers” and “our manufacturing” as John Deere has laid off hundreds of workers this year across its Iowa and Illinois-based plants.

“They think they’re going to make products cheaper in Mexico and then sell it for the same price as they did before, make a lot of money by getting rid of our labor and our jobs,” Trump said.

True, Deere announced in June that it was acquiring land in Ramos, Mexico to build a new plant.  But the company would argue it is still spending $billions in the U.S.

--UPS announced Wednesday that it intends to hire over 125,000 employees to handle deliveries this holiday season.  The company said it is looking for Commercial Driver’s License drivers, seasonal delivery drivers and package handlers.

--After Microsoft agreed to buy power from the shuttered Three Mile Island nuclear plant on Friday, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro wrote a letter telling regulators that they should allow the reactor to skip the increasingly long line to be connected to the electrical grid.  Microsoft wants to start using the power from Three Mile Island by 2028, but a delay in getting connected to the grid could push back the restart – potentially for years.

Microsoft is going to use the reactor’s energy, enough for about 700,000 homes, to power data centers.  Every month of delay is costly at a time when tech giants are battling for supremacy in artificial intelligence.

--McDonald’s stock hit a new record high this week and is up some 23% since a recent low in July, when the fast-food chain struggled with declining sales as its higher menu prices lost appeal among low-income customers.

But then the company rolled out a special value meal across the nation, for $5, or $6 in some regions, and it has been so successful in attracting customers back that it was extended a month, and then franchisees voted to extend it further into December in most U.S. markets.

--Dell Technologies said Thursday that their global sales team employees who are able to work from the company offices must do so five days a week, starting Sept. 30, according to a memo sent to employees.

The change is to leverage collaborative environment and “grow skills,” which requires the team to be in the office, the memo said.  “Working remotely should be the exception rather than the routine,” it added.

Previously, field representatives from the sales team were required to work from the office for three days per week.  Now, if they aren’t out meeting customers, they must be in the office five days.

I’ve noticed a distinct pickup at the commuter parking lot I pass every day...these folks going into Newark (think Prudential, medical centers), Hoboken (where many corporations are now located), as well as New York.

[I lived in Hoboken four different times in the 1980s, and I went in the other day to go to a meeting at Stevens University, and I couldn’t believe the transformation the little city that brought us Frank Sinatra has undergone in terms of a corporate presence.  Stevens is a great little school, by the way.]

--Deadly floods that unleashed destruction across central and eastern Europe will generate some of the worst regional losses for insurers.

Central Europe’s insured flood losses will likely be 2 billion euro ($2.2 billion) to 3bn euro, Global reinsurance broker Gallagher Re estimates.  That would rival the costs of the catastrophic floods of 1997, 2002 and 2013, Bloomberg Intelligence data shows.

--I saw an interesting, albeit not surprising, factoid in Barron’s the other day.  “29.3%...Percent of Japan’s population that was 65 or older in 2022, compared with 17.3% of the U.S. population.”

--I have watched the first 20 minutes of the “Today” show for decades and decades and so I was sorry to hear Hoda Kotb was leaving the program after 26 years with NBC, probably at year end  She said turning 60 was a big moment for her, and she has two young children.

No successor was named for both Kotb’s 7-9 a.m. slot, and the 10:00 a.m. hour with Jenna Bush Hager, but this will be a big decision for NBC executives, as “Today” has a comfortable ratings lead over ABC and CBS among adults under the age of 54, the age bracket vital to advertisers, though ABC’s “Good Morning America” continues to lead in total viewers.

Foreign Affairs, part II

China: The military publicly announced it had launched an unarmed ICBM in what appeared to be the first such public admission since 1980, according to the BBC.

According to Beijing’s Defense Ministry: “The PLA Rocket Force launched an ICBM (intercontinental ballistic missile) carrying a dummy warhead to the high seas in the Pacific Ocean at 08:44 on September 25th, and the missile fell into expected sea areas. This test launch is a routine arrangement in our annual training plan. It is in line with international law and international practice and is not directed against any country or target.”

Former Pentagon official Drew Thompson, now a senior research fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in Singapore, said: “This launch is a powerful signal intended to intimidate everyone.”

“China chose to launch an ICBM during the United Nations General Assembly,” Thompson noted, adding, “This is not just a signal to the U.S., Japan, Philippines and Taiwan.”

China has conducted scores of missiles tests, including ICBM tests, in the past, but never talked about them in public.

Speaking of Tawan, it has seen 84 Chinese aircraft flying around the self-governing island over the past two days, 66 of them crossing over the median line, a notable increase in activity.

Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reported that hackers linked to the Chinese government have broken into a handful of U.S. internet-service providers in recent months in pursuit of sensitive information, according to people familiar with the matter.

The hacking campaign, called Salt Typhoon by investigators, hadn’t previously been publicly disclosed and is the latest in a series of incursions that U.S. investigators have linked to China in recent years.

In Salt Typhoon, the actors linked to China burrowed into America’s broadband networks.  In this type of intrusion, bad actors aim to establish a foothold within the infrastructure of cable and broadband providers that would allow them to access data stored by telecommunications companies or launch a damaging cyberattack.

Investigators are exploring whether the intruders gained access to Cisco Systems routers, core network components that route much of the traffic on the internet, according to people familiar with the matter.

Cisco said, “At this time, there is no indication that Cisco routers are involved.”

Microsoft is investigating the intrusion and what sensitive information may have been accessed, according to the Journal’s reporting and people familiar with the matter.

Lastly, the Wall Street Journal reported today in an exclusive that China’s newest nuclear-powered attack submarine sank in the spring, a major setback for one of the country’s priority weapons programs, U.S. officials said.

“The episode, which Chinese authorities scrambled to cover up and hasn’t previously been disclosed, occurred at a shipyard near Wuhan in late May or early June.

“It comes as China has been pushing to expand its navy, including its fleet of nuclear-powered submarines.”

The Journal report added: “The U.S. doesn’t know if the sub was carrying nuclear fuel at the time it sank, but experts outside the U.S. government said that was likely.”

Random Musings

--Presidential approval ratings....

Gallup:  39% approve of President Biden’s job performance, 58% disapprove; 31% of independents approve (Sept. 3-15).

Rasmussen: 44% approve, 54% disapprove (Sept. 27).

--In a New York Times/Siena College poll of three southern battleground states, Donald Trump leads in all three among likely voters.

Arizona...Trump +5
Georgia...Trump +4
North Carolina...Trump +2

--In an NBC News national poll released on Sunday, Vice President Harris leads Trump by 5 points, 49%-44%.  Of more significance perhaps, 48% of 1,000 registered voters surveyed said their view of Harris was positive compared to 32% in July – the largest jump among politician ratings polled by NBC since President George W. Bush’s favorability rose after the 9/11 attacks.

In an expanded ballot with third-party candidates, Harris leads Trump by 6 points, 47% to 41% - with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 2%, Jill Stein at 2% and Libertarian Chase Oliver at 1%.  [Respondents were only able to pick from the major third-party candidates who will actually appear on the ballot in their states.]

In the head-to-head matchup, Harris holds the advantage among Black voters (85%-7%), voters ages 18-34 (57%-34%), women (58%-37%), white voters with college degrees (59%-38%) and independents (43%-35%).

Trump is ahead among men (52%-40%), white voters (52%-43%), and white voters without college degrees (61%-33%).

Seventy-one percent of all voters say their minds are made up, while 11% say they might change their vote.

Harris leads on abortion, fitness and change; Trump is ahead on the key issues of the border, the economy and dealing with the cost of living.

Very importantly, 65% of voters say the country is on the wrong track, compared to just 28% who say it’s heading in the right direction.

In the battle for Congress, 48% of registered voters prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress, compared with 46% who want Republicans in charge.

--In a CBS poll, nationally, Harris led Trump by 4 points, 52%-48%, among likely voters.

In the seven battleground states, without breaking them down individually, the margin was 51%-49%, Harris, which is within the margin of error.

In the CBS poll, Harris narrowed her deficit on the economy, Trump leading 53% to 47% among voters who care most about the issue, compared with 56% to 43% in August.

--In a CNN/SSRS national poll of likely voters, Harris leads Trump 48%-47%.  About 2% say they plan to vote for Libertarian Chase Oliver and 1% for Jill Stein.

Among independent voters, Harris leads Trump 45%-41%.  Independent women break 51% Harris to 36% Trump, while independent men split 47% for Trump to 40% for Harris.

White men break 58% Trump to 35% Harris, while White women split 50% Trump to 47% Harris.

Harris leads among Black voters, 79% to 16%, and Latinos, 59% to 40%.

About 4 in 10 likely voters (41%) call the economy the most important issue for them as they choose a president, with protecting democracy second at 21%, immigration at 12% and abortion at 11%.

--A Reuters/Ipsos national poll had Harris leading Trump 47%-40%.  This is a weekly survey.

--And a new Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll of swing states has Harris now leading among likely voters in six of the seven, with a tie in Georgia.

Arizona: 50-47...Harris
Georgia: 49-49
Michigan: 50-47...Harris
Nevada: 52-45...Harris
North Carolina: 50-48...Harris
Pennsylvania: 51-46...Harris
Wisconsin:  51-48...Harris

--Next Tuesday we have the vice-presidential debate, JD Vance vs. Tim Walz. This is going to be interesting.  Neither is particularly polling well, with the general public really knowing little about either.

This should have been Josh Shapiro vs. Doug Burgum.

I am totally underwhelmed by all four on the ballot...Trump-Vance; Harris-Walz.

Maybe I’ll write in the Weather Channel’s Jim Cantore.

--Donald Trump rejected another debate with Vice President Harris before the election, hours after Harris said she had agreed to an Oct. 23 matchup with Trump on CNN.

But Trump stuck to his previous position that there would not be another debate before voters go to the polls.

Trump also said he did not envision himself running for president in 2028 if he loses this year.

--In a closely watched speech on economic policy the other day in Pittsburgh, Kamala Harris promised “a new way forward” to the middle class, and portrayed Donald Trump as on the side of billionaires.

During the address, Harris wove together her vows to lower costs for the middle class and help small businesses into a broader pitch for pragmatic economic leadership.  “We shouldn’t be constrained by ideology, and instead should seek practical solutions to problems,” Harris told the Economic Club of Pittsburgh, as her aides handed out a roughly 80-page policy paper on her economic plans.

Her speech, in which she said, “I am a capitalist,” appeared designed to push back against Trump’s efforts to label her as a radical “communist.”  It was also an attempt to appeal to the kind of moderate swing voters who have told pollsters that they trust Trump more on the economy.

But as the Wall Street Journal opined, “any inspection of the details (of Harris’ plan) shows she’s offering the same policies as Mr. Biden, only more so.”

The day before, Trump outlined his plans, focusing on cutting taxes on American businesses, while imposing high tariffs on foreign competitors.

--In a campaign rally Saturday in North Carolina, Donald Trump did not mention embattled GOP gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson, nor was Robinson in attendance, after Trump had compared Robinson to Martin Luther King Jr. “on steroids.”

--Tuesday was National Voter Registration Day and more than 150,000 people registered through Vote.org, the most the organization has ever seen on that day. The organization registered 279,400 voters in all of last year.

According to Vote.org, voters under 35 made up 81% of Tuesday’s registrations, with the biggest spike among 18-year-olds.  On this year’s National Voter Registration Day, 11% of those registered were 18, which is 53% higher than on the same day four years ago.  And some scoff at the potential Taylor Swift effect.  Not moi.

--New York City Mayor Eric Adams has seen four, five sweeping corruption investigations involving officials, siblings of officials, and close friends, at least 14 individuals in all, swirling around him and all of us observers in the New York area, watching the endless display on local television news, have been wondering when it would all catch up to the mayor, and this week it did, Adams becoming the first mayor in modern New York City history to be charged while in office.

Thursday started with federal agents searching the official residence of Adams in the morning, hours before prosecutors announced the details of the indictment.

Adams was indicted on five federal criminal charges of bribery, fraud and soliciting illegal foreign campaign donations, with prosecutors saying the scheme had begun when he was a top elected official in Brooklyn and continued after he became mayor.

The investigation focused on whether Adams, 64, had conspired with the Turkish government to receive illegal foreign campaign contributions in exchange for acting on its behalf.

Damian Williams, the U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York, said that Adams had been “showered” with gifts that he knew were illegal.

“This was a multiyear scheme to buy favor with a single New York City politician on the rise: Eric Adams,” Williams said at the news conference.  “Year after year, he kept the public in the dark.”

Wednesday night, the mayor said in a statement: “I always knew that if I stood my ground for New Yorkers that I would be a target – and a target I became.  If I am charged, I am innocent and I will fight this with every ounce of my strength and spirit.”

Thursday, in between the 6:00 a.m. search of his residence/office and prosecutors coming forward with the unsealed document in public, Adams was defiant.

He said he would not resign despite numerous calls from elected officials. “I ask New Yorkers to wait to hear our defense,” he said.

Adams tried to hide the gifts or make them appear as if he had paid for them, according to the indictment, the latter in a most clumsy fashion, according to the indictment, with the value exceeding $100,000.

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul has the power to remove him from office; but she said Thursday she would wait a few days to see how things developed.

Friday, Mayor Adams pleaded not guilty in a Lower Manhattan courtroom to the five counts.  He was granted bail.

Understand that we’re talking New York City, a rather important place, including now during the UN General Assembly, and not only is the mayor hugely distracted these days, but a number of key officials in his administration had already resigned and the police force, in terms of its leadership, is a mess as well.  Not good for anyone, especially New York’s citizens and those entering the city on trains and buses daily to earn a living.

--Ohio Republican Gov. Mike DeWine, opining on Springfield, Ohio, in an op-ed for the New York Times:

“Springfield has a rich history of providing refuge for the oppressed and being a place of opportunity. As a stop on the Underground Railroad, the Gammon House, which still stands, was a safe haven for escaped slaves seeking freedom. And, as a stop on the Old National Road, America’s first east/west federal highway, Springfield attracted many settlers both before and after the Civil War.  Immigrants from Ireland, Greece, Germany, Italy and other countries helped build the city into what it is today.

“For a long time, commerce and manufacturing flourished in Springfield....

“But the city hit tough times in the 1980s and 1990s, falling into serious economic decline as manufacturing, rail commerce and good-paying jobs dwindled.  Now, however, Springfield is having a resurgence in manufacturing and job creation.  Some of that is thanks to the dramatic influx of Haitian migrants who have arrived in the city over the past three years to fill jobs.

“They are there legally.  They are there to work.

“It is disappointing to me that Springfield has become the epicenter of vitriol over America’s immigration policy, because it has long been a community of great diversity....

“Bomb threats – all hoaxes – continue and temporarily closed at least two schools, put the hospital on lockdown and shuttered City Hall....

“As a supporter of former President Donald Trump and Senator JD Vance, I am saddened by how they and others continue to repeat claims that lack evidence and disparage the legal migrants living in Springfield.  This rhetoric hurts the city and its people, and it hurts those who have spent their lives there.

“The Biden administration’s failure to control the southern border is a very important issue that Mr. Trump and Mr. Vance are talking about and one that the American people are rightfully deeply concerned about. But their verbal attacks against these Haitians – who are legally present in the United States – dilute and cloud what should be a winning argument about the border.

“The Springfield I know is not the one you hear about in social media rumors.  It is a city made up of good, decent, welcoming people. They are hard workers – both those who were born in this country and those who settled here because, back in their birthplace, Haiti, innocent people can be killed just for cheering for the wrong team in a soccer match....

“(My wife) and I first traveled to Haiti almost 30 years ago... We have since been there over 20 times and have supported a Catholic priest who runs a tuition-free school in a slum in Port-au-Prince.

“We have always been amazed when, even in the poorest areas of Haiti, we see children coming out of homes made of rusting corrugated metal and cardboard with shoes shined and clothes neat and pressed.  We know that the Haitian people want the same things we all want – a good job, the chance to get a quality education and the ability to raise a family in a safe and secure environment.  Haitian migrants have gone to Springfield because of the jobs and chance for a better life there....

“There have been language barriers and cultural differences, but these Haitians come to work every day, are fitting in with co-workers and have become valuable employees....

“At the same time, the sudden surge in population has created challenges that no city could anticipate or prepare for. The health care system, housing market and school classrooms have been strained.  There is a desperate need for more Haitian Creole translators.  And ensuring that Haitians learn how to drive safely and understand our driving customs and traffic laws remains a top priority....

“This isn’t just personal for a lot of us; it’s about our pride in America....

“Springfield today has a very bright future. The people who live there love their families, value education, work hard, care about one another and tackle the challenges they face head-on, just as they have done for over 200 years.

“I am proud of this community, and America should be, too.”

Related to the above, I was disappointed in some results from the above-mentioned CBS News poll.

Among registered voters...when asked “Immigrants make American society...”

Better in the long run...40% (all voters)...13% of Trump voters
Worse in the long run...40%...73% of Trump voters
No effect...20%...13% of Trump voters

“Trump making claims about Haitian immigrants eating pets...”

Approve...33%...64% of Trump voters
Disapprove...67%...36% of Trump voters

“Trump’s claims about Haitian immigrants eating pets are...”

Certainly/probably true...37%...69% of Trump voters
Certainly/probably false...63%...31% of Trump voters

--The man accused of trying to assassinate former President Trump acknowledged in a prewritten note that he had planned the attack – and even predicted his failure, offering $150,000 to anyone who could “complete the job,” according to a court filing on Monday.

Ryan Routh staked out the grounds of Trump’s golf course in West Palm Beach, Fla., for a month before the episode, the filing said. He positioned himself outside the fence at the sixth hole of the course on Sept. 15, before a Secret Service agent scouting one hole ahead of Trump’s group spotted him and the barrel of his gun.

Prosecutors said Routh had aligned himself directly to the sixth hole, with the intention of shooting Trump from a relatively short distance with a semiautomatic rifle.  The rifle, equipped with a scope and left at the scene, had a bullet in the chamber and a total of 11 rounds.

“I tried my best and gave it all the gumption I could muster,” Routh wrote in a note placed inside a box, left at a friend’s house, found by investigators after he was arrested. “It is up to you to finish the job; and I will offer $150,000 to whomever can complete the job.”

--The FBI reported Monday that overall violent crime declined an estimated 3% in 2023 from the year before, while murders and non-negligent manslaughter dropped nearly 12%.

Crime surged during the pandemic, with homicides increasing nearly 30% in 2020 over the previous year – the largest one-year jump since the FBI began keeping records.  But even with the pandemic surge, violent crime is down dramatically from the 1990s.

--Japan suffered from record rainfall that caused floods and landslides in parts of Ishikawa prefecture, killing six with 10 missing.  The region is still recovering from the powerful 7.5 earthquake in January which killed at least 236 people, toppled buildings and sparked a major fire.

--SpaceX plans to launch about five uncrewed Starship missions to Mars in two years, CEO Elon Musk said on Sunday in a post on X.

Earlier this month, Musk said that the first Starships to Mars would launch in two years “when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens.”

The CEO on Sunday said that the first crewed mission timeline will depend upon the success of the uncrewed flights.  If the uncrewed missions land safely, crewed missions will be launched in four years.  However, in case of challenges, crewed missions will be postponed by another two years, Musk said.

Musk is known for providing changing timelines, including on Tesla vehicles.  But I’d love to see uncrewed missions start sooner than later.

NASA earlier this year delayed Artemis 3 mission and its first crewed moon landing in half a century using SpaceX’s Starship, to September 2026. It was previously planned for late 2025, NASA said.

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Pray for the men and women of our armed forces...and all the fallen.

Pray for those in need after Hurricane Helene...and the victims’ families.

Pray for Ukraine.

God bless America.

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Gold $2672...further highs...
Oil $68.26...bad week...

Bitcoin: $65,689 [4:00 PM ET, Friday]

Regular Gas: $3.22; Diesel: $3.58 [$3.83 - $4.56 yr. ago]

Returns for the week 9/23-9/27

Dow Jones  +0.6%  [42313]
S&P 500  +0.6%  [5738]
S&P MidCap  +0.5%
Russell 2000  -0.1%
Nasdaq  +1.0%  [18119]

Returns for the period 1/1/24-9/27/24

Dow Jones  +12.3%
S&P 500  +20.3%
S&P MidCap  +12.1%
Russell 2000  +9.8%
Nasdaq  +20.7%

Bulls 52.5
Bears 22.9

Hang in there.

Brian Trumbore

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