Week in Review

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Week in Review

11/09/2024

For the week 11/4-11/8

[Posted 4:30 PM ET, Friday]

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Edition 1,333

As Americans headed to the polls Tuesday, some 79 million had already cast their votes, either by mail or in-person early voting, which was 50% of the total number cast in 2020.  Over 4 million had cast their ballots in Georgia, or 80% of the total four years ago.

I can’t help but note George F. Will’s column last weekend in the Washington Post:

“Of this mercifully truncated presidential campaign we may say what Samuel Johnson said of Milton’s ‘Paradise Lost’: No one ever wished it longer: Why prolong this incineration of the nation’s dignity?

“Donald Trump, a volcano of stray thoughts and tantrums, is painfully well known.  There is nothing to know about Kamala Harris, other than this: Her versatility of conviction means that she might shed her new catechism as blithely as she acquired its progressive predecessor.

“The Democratic Party’s reckless disingenuousness regarding the president’s frailty persisted until, in 90 June minutes, the truth became public. Then, with the nimbleness of those without the ballast of seriousness about anything other than hoarding power, his party foisted on the electorate a Play-Doh candidate.  Her manipulators made her malleability into her platform.  Prudence is a virtue, so do not fault her handlers for mostly shielding her from public interactions more challenging than interviews with grammar school newspapers.

“Her sole notable decision as a candidate has been the choice of a running mate whose self-description (‘knucklehead’) is more astute than his flippancies about serious matters (the electoral college is icky, socialism is ‘neighborliness,’ etc.) and his self-celebratory fictions about his past.  Tim Walz’s achievement during his pirouette in the spotlight has been to make his counterpart, JD Vance, resemble Aristotle.”

What then happened on Tuesday?

The first exit polls were released at 5:00 p.m., and on CNN, Chris Wallace immediately seized on the poll showing nearly three-quarters of voters were dissatisfied or angry with the direction of the country. “In conventional terms,” Wallace said, “it would be a miracle that Kamala Harris could win with that kind of headwind,” and the veteran Wallace was right.

On Fox News later Tuesday evening, Trump seemingly at the doorstep of victory, anchor Bret Baier repeated a phrase he had uttered earlier in the night: “the biggest political phoenix-from-the-ashes story that we have ever seen – ever.”

Donald Trump swept the battleground states we’ve all been focused on for the past year.

[Some of these numbers could change slightly as final ballots are tallied.]

Arizona: 53 percent – 47 percent
Georgia: 51-49
Michigan: 49.7-48.3
Nevada: 51-47
North Carolina: 51-48
Pennsylvania: 51-49
Wisconsin: 49.7-48.8

The pollsters got grief immediately after, but they really did a solid job.  They essentially said the seven states were tied, and the margin of error is generally 3 points, and save for Arizona and Nevada, you see the final tallies were within that range.

What was shocking was how some of the other states, that went significantly for Joe Biden in 2020, saw their margins narrow a lot...giving the GOP further hope for 2028, and maybe the mid-terms.

To wit...just to pick out a few....

Illinois: 56-41 for Biden in 2020, 54-45 for Harris
New Jersey: 56-41 Biden, 52-46 Harris
New York: 61-38 Biden, 56-44 Harris
Virginia: 54-44 Biden, 52-47 Harris

You can legitimately say, today, that New Jersey and Virginia could be in play in 2028. [New Jersey has what will now be a very closely watched gubernatorial race next year.]

Donald Trump is also on his way to winning the popular vote outright, with a few million ballots still to be counted. [As of Friday afternoon]

Trump 73,562,996...50.7%
Harris 69,243,108...47.7%

The win was decisive, which was good for the country, whether you like the final result or not. There was no civil unrest, no major claims of fraud...it was free and fair.  Just like the old days.

--In the U.S. Senate, among the high-profile races, in Ohio, Republican Bernie Moreno defeated longtime Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown, 50-46.

In Montana, Republican Tim Sheehy bested Democratic incumbent Jon Tester, 53-45.

And Pennsylvania Republican Dave McCormick edged Democratic incumbent Bob Casey, the AP calling it Thursday, 49.0-48.5.

With Nevada and Arizona still to be finalized, it is looking like it will end up 53-47, Republicans, the GOP electing a new leader next week to replace Sen. Mitch McConnell.

--In the House, as I go to post, it’s 211-199, GOP, with a lot of races awaiting results from mail-in ballots.  There remains a very slight path for the Democrats to reach 218 and regain control.  Otherwise, it’s a Republican sweep.

--As for the issues that helped shape a Trump-Vance win....

The aforementioned “Direction about the way things are going in the U.S.”....enthusiastic/satisfied 25%, dissatisfied/angry 73%.

The economy: excellent/good 31%, not good/poor 68%.

Inflation: severe or moderate hardship 75%, no hardship 24%.

Yes, it was about the economy/inflation, pure and simple, and then immigration, and Trump and the GOP targeted their messaging accordingly.

While the official rate of inflation is coming down, people are feeling the 25% higher prices from before the pandemic, and that’s not including skyrocketing costs with the likes of auto insurance.

It was also about Joe Biden’s approval rating, which is why I harp on this every week, especially with the Gallup poll, the gold standard. 

Exit polls had Biden with a 39% approval rating, 59% disapproval.  You cannot be successful as a party when the guy at the top of it is met with such lousy numbers, full stop.

In other categories, there wasn’t as much difference between 2020 and 2024 as many in the media made it out to be.

Whites voted for Trump 58-41 in 2020, and 57-41 in 2024.
White men voted 61-38 for Trump in 2020, 60-37 in 2024.
Black men: 79-19 Biden in 2020, 77-21 Harris in 2024.
Male: 53-45 Trump in 2020, 55-42 in 2024.
Female: 57-42 Biden in 2020, 53-45 Harris in 2024.

But there was indeed a startling shift in Latino Men...from 59-36 Biden, in 2020, to 55-43 Trump in 2024. 

And 18-29-year-olds went 60-36 for Biden in 2020, and just 54-43 for Harris in 2024. [Men: 49-47 Trump. Women: 61-37 Harris.]

Also, the rural vote went 57-42 Trump in 2020, and a whopping 64-34 in 2024.

Regarding the Latino vote, moderate Democratic Rep. Ritchie Torres, an Afro-Latino whose Bronx, New York-based district is heavily Hispanic, said, “The losses among Latinos is nothing short of catastrophic for the party.”  Torres worried that Democrats were increasingly captive to “a college-educated far left that is in danger of causing us to fall out of touch with working-class voters.”

Torres, in a tweet, also said:

“Donald Trump has no greater friend than the far left, which has managed to alienate historic numbers of Latinos, Blacks, Asians, and Jews from the Democratic Party with absurdities like ‘Defund the Police’ or ‘From the River to the Sea’ or ‘Latinx.’

“There is more to lose than there is to gain politically from pandering to a far left that is more representative of Twitter, Twitch, and TikTok than it is of the real world.  The working class is not buying the ivory-towered nonsense that the far left is selling.”

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“Donald Trump, meet Grover Cleveland, the only other President in U.S. history to win a second term after losing his first bid for re-election.  It’s a remarkable accomplishment and a political comeback for the ages.  How he’ll use it to achieve a legacy larger than the divisiveness of the last eight years is the question for the next four.

“To say the former President has been a portrait in resilience is the political understatement of the 21st century.  He was all but written off as a future candidate after the Capitol riot of Jan. 6, 2021, including by us. But Democrats helped to revive him with their one-sided Jan. 6 investigation and their partisan use of lawfare.  The Bragg indictment in New York on jerry-rigged charges may have sealed Mr. Trump’s path to the nomination.  The courage he showed after the first assassination attempt was also a defining campaign moment....

“Yet Mr. Trump’s comeback wouldn’t have been possible without the policy failures of the Biden Administration and Congressional Democrats. He won again because President Biden failed to deliver the unity and prosperity he promised, and because over four years voters have soured on the results of his progressive policies.

“Mr. Biden veered left to unite Democrats, rather than unite the country, and he believed the historians who told him he could be another FDR.  He put Elizabeth Warren in charge of his regulators, and Nancy Pelosi in charge of his agenda for the first two years on Capitol Hill.

“The result was a decline in real wages as inflation soared, a divisive cultural agenda driven by identity politics, chaos at the southern border, and the collapse of American deterrence abroad.  The exit polls show the economy in particular was Mr. Trump’s best issue.  No matter the media lectures that the economy is great, voters who depend on wages and salaries (not assets) felt differently.

“Democrats tried a late course correction by pushing Mr. Biden out of the race when it became clear he would lose, and it almost worked.  Kamala Harris tried to pitch herself as a ‘new way forward,’ but she couldn’t escape her four-year association with Mr. Biden.  In the end she also failed to persuade enough people she was up to the job as President in a world of growing geopolitical danger.

“Given these fundamentals, Republicans had the political advantage, and perhaps a younger GOP nominee without the baggage of Jan. 6 might have won a bigger victory.  Exit polls show the threat to democracy and Mr. Trump’s character were big Democratic advantages.  But Democrats overplayed their hand even here, as their comparisons to fascism and Hitler weren’t believable....

“The overriding policy message from the exit polls is that Mr. Trump needs to keep his eye focused clearly on economic growth.  He has a mandate to repeal electric-vehicle mandates and the climate commands of the Inflation Reduction Act.

“Above all he needs growth with low inflation that raises incomes, especially for American households who don’t have stocks or own a home.  Extending the pro-growth planks of his 2017 tax reform and deregulation to unleash business investment will be crucial.  He won’t get that result by adopting the income redistribution or union feather-bedding favored by the big-government right.

“Most second terms fail, but then Mr. Trump’s second term is unlike any other in more than a century. To adapt Democrat Rahm Emanuel’s famous political dictum, a second chance would be a terrible thing to waste.”

George F. Will / Washington Post...post-mortem....

“Conducting a thorough autopsy on the cadaver of Kamala Harris’ campaign will require the scalpel of voting data not yet sharpened.  Two things, however, are obvious.  Democrats should have remembered the ancient axiom ‘be careful what you wish for.’  And they should have remembered the warning attributed to their hero Franklin D. Roosevelt (regarding Gen. Douglas MacArthur): ‘Never underestimate a man who overestimates himself.’

“Progressives, which most Democrats more or less are, are defined by their confidence that clever people (they have themselves in mind) can manipulate society and fine-tune its complex processes.  So, many months before President Joe Biden’s disqualifying decline, which many leading Democrats had fiercely denied until it became undeniable, Democrats worked to see that Republicans selected the nominee who would be best for Biden: Donald Trump....

“Enough has been said about the Republican Party’s eight years of self-degradation.  More needs to be said about the Democratic Party’s self-sabotage, via identity politics (race, gender), that made Harris vice president.  And then, via Democratic high-handedness, foisted her on the nation as the party’s nominee. She did not pass through the toughening furnace of competition that reveals mettle, or its absence.

“Her campaign, although short, was too long for her talents.  They do not include the skill of making her synthetic centrism – her repudiation of her entire public profile prior to July – seem authentic....

“A minimally articulate Democratic nominee would have contrasted nicely with Trump’s rhetorical style of digressions piled upon previous digressions.  Instead, Harris got lost in her syntactical labyrinths. And she spent too much time belaboring two subjects: Trump’s boorishness and abortion.

“The former is familiar to everyone and appealing to many. The latter issue was heated to a red glow by the Supreme Court’s June 2022 overturning of the constitutional right to abortion.  But by 2024, it had cooled somewhat as various states, including some red ones, passed pro-choice laws and/or state constitutional amendments, and sentient people recognized that it is politically impossible for Congress to pass a national abortion ban.

“It has been said that the future is a mirror without glass in it. But Trump’s scatterbrained approach to almost everything makes it likely that he will fail to do much of what he has vowed to do.  Then, in 2028, Americans get to do this again.  That is the good and bad news.”

Bret Stephens / New York Times

“Why did Harris lose? There were many tactical missteps: her choice of a progressive running mate who would not help deliver a must-win state like Pennsylvania or Michigan; her inability to separate herself from President Biden; her foolish designation of Trump as a fascist, which, by implication, suggested his supporters were themselves quasi-fascist; her overreliance on celebrity surrogates as she struggled to articulate a compelling rationale for her candidacy; her failure to forthrightly repudiate some of the more radical positions she took as a candidate in 2019, other than by relying on stock expressions like ‘My values haven’t changed.’

“There was also the larger error of anointing Harris without political competition – an insult to the democratic process that handed the nomination to a candidate who, as some of us warned at the time, was exceptionally weak.  That, in turn, came about because Democrats failed to take Biden’s obvious mental decline seriously until June’s debate debacle (and then allowed him to cling to the nomination for a few weeks more), making it difficult to hold even a truncated mini-primary....

“Today, the Democrats have become the party of priggishness, pontification and pomposity.  It may make them feel righteous, but how’s that ever going to be a winning electoral look?

“I voted reluctantly for Harris because of my fears for what a second Trump term might bring – in Ukraine, our trade policy, civic life, the moral health of the conservative movement writ large.  Right now, my larger fear is that liberals lack the introspection to see where they went wrong, the discipline to do better next time and the humility to change.”

Daniel Henninger / Wall Street Journal

“Pouring all their psychic energies into ‘Trump,’ Democrats took their eyes off the American people the past four years. What a high price they are paying for that now.

“In the election’s final weeks, virtually all the opinion polls showed Mr. Trump and Kamala Harris in a statistical tie in the seven swing states.  It was an admittedly striking result, and the question became: Are the polls ‘missing’ something?

“Indeed they did.  They missed the public’s loss of belief that the Democratic Party represents its interests.”

In her concession speech Wednesday, Kamala Harris sought to balance her respect for the will of American voters and the dire warnings she issued about Trump on the campaign trail.  Harris urged those who voted for her to have deference for America’s institutions even if they have disdain for Trump.

“I know folks are feeling and experiencing a range of emotions right now. I get it.  But we must accept the results of this election,” she said.  “In our nation, we owe loyalty not to a president or a party but to the Constitution....

“This is not a time to throw up our hands,” she said.  “This is a time to roll up our sleeves. This is a time to organize, to mobilize and to stay engaged for the sake of freedom and justice and the future that we all know we can build together.”

Harris also promised a “peaceful transfer of power.”

Joe Biden, in remarks on Thursday, promised a smooth transition and has invited Trump to the White House.

But it was Joe Biden who single-handedly doomed the Democratic Party.  You know where I’ve stood.  I made a prediction at the end of 2022 that he wouldn’t make it through 2023 physically.  I wasn’t trying to be ‘cute,’ I had observed like so many of you that he was rapidly declining.

I then wrote last fall that it was all about Christmas at the Biden compound, and whether Jill Biden, in particular, would have the guts to convince Joe he shouldn’t run for a second term.  History will not look kindly on Jill, let alone her husband.

Joe Biden always saw himself as the smartest man in the room (despite some colossal failures on the paramount issues of our times), and we know he is stubborn.

We also know there should have been a primary process, and when there wasn’t (so much for the “bridge” to a future generation of leaders he had promised in 2020), and he was forced to drop out, Donald Trump et al had a winning campaign message...it was a coup.

And then the ill-equipped Kamala Harris made that fatal statement on “The View” ...that she couldn’t think of one thing that she’d do differently from a man with an historically low approval rating.

The Democrats did this all to themselves.  Will they learn any lessons, like how using celebrities at campaign rallies turns off the average working-class American?  Likely not.

Some reaction from overseas:

Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine

“I appreciate President Trump’s commitment to the ‘peace through strength’ approach in global affairs.  This is exactly the principle that can practically bring just peace in Ukraine closer,” Zelensky said on X.

Benjamin Netanyahu, Prime Minister of Israel

“Congratulation on history’s greatest comeback!  Your historic return to the White House offers a new beginning for America and a powerful recommitment to the great alliance between Israel and America.  This is a huge victory!  In true friendship,” Netanyahu wrote on X.

Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India

“Heartiest congratulations my friend...on your historic election victory.  As you build on the successes of your previous term, I look forward to renewing our collaboration to further strengthen the India-U.S. Comprehensive Global and Strategic Partnership.  Together, let’s work for the betterment of our people and to promote global peace, stability and prosperity,” Modi said on X.

Emmanuel Macron, President of France

“Congratulations, President Donald Trump.  Ready to work together just as we knew how to do during four years.  With your convictions and with mine.  With respect and ambition. For more peace and prosperity,” Macron wrote on X.

Olaf Scholz, German Chancellor

“I congratulate Donald Trump on his election as US President.  Germany and the U.S. have for a long time successfully worked together to promote prosperity and freedom on both sides of the Atlantic.  We will continue to do so for the benefit of our citizens,” he said on X.

Ursula von der Leyen, EU Commission President

“I warmly congratulate Donald J. Trump on his election as the 47th President of the United States of America.  I look forward to working with President Trump again to advance a strong transatlantic agenda.

“Let us work together on a transatlantic partnership that continues to deliver for our citizens.  Millions of jobs and billions in trade and investment on each side of the Atlantic depend on the dynamism and stability of our economic relationship.”

Viktor Orban, Hungarian Prime Minister

“The biggest comeback in US political history!  Congratulations to President @realDonaldTrump on his enormous win. A much needed victory for the World!” Orban posted on X.

Lai Ching-te, President of Taiwan, on X

“Sincere congratulations to President-elect @realDonaldTrump on your victory.  I’m confident that the longstanding #Taiwan-#US partnership, built on shared values & interests, will continue to serve as a cornerstone for regional stability & lead to greater prosperity for us all.”

In an address on Friday, which lasted several hours and covered a wide range of topics, Vladimir Putin congratulated Donald Trump and called him a “courageous man.”

Putin also said that Trump’s claim that he can help end the war in Ukraine “deserves attention at least.”

Speaking of the assassination attempt on Trump in July, Putin said it “made an impression” on him.

“He behaved, in my opinion, in a very correct way, courageously, like a man,” Putin said.

Asked if he was ready to have discussions with Donald Trump, Putin replied: “We’re ready, we’re ready.”

Trump said Thursday in an interview that he was prepared to speak with Putin.

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Israel-Iran-Hezbollah-Hamas

--Iran’s supreme leader vowed Saturday to give a “crushing response” to Israel’s attacks on Iranian military and missile defense sites, saying they would “not go unanswered” and hinting at a potential role for Iranian-backed groups in any reprisal.

Ayatollah Khamenei made his comments on a video released by Iranian state media, and he did not explicitly say that an attack would originate from Iran.  Instead, he said a response would come from forces that are fighting Israel and its U.S. backers “on behalf of the Iranian nation.”

Militia leaders in Baghdad said Saturday that they were either apprised of Iran’s attack plans or helping to coordinate them.  The U.S. still has about 2,500 service members in Iraq, and a clash there between Israel and Iran risks drawing them into the battle.

Iraq has accused Israel of using its airspace to launch missiles into Iranian territory, and the government last week formally complained to the UN Security Council.  Israel has not confirmed that it used Iraqi airspace in the strikes.

But Iran could use Iraq as a launchpad for its attacks, analysts say, which could complicate an Israeli response.

The Wall Street Journal reported that Tehran told allies an attack would come after Tuesday’s election but before January’s inauguration and wouldn’t be limited to missiles and drones, as two previous strikes were.

The USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier likely is in the Arabian Sea, while the Pentagon said last Friday more destroyers, fighter squadrons, tankers and B-52 long-range bombers would be coming to the region to deter Iran and its militant allies.

--Protests erupted in Israel after Prime Minister Netanyahu fired Defense Minister Yoav Gallant.

Netanyahu said a “crisis of trust” between the two led to his decision, adding that his trust in Gallant had “eroded” in recent months and Foreign Minister Israel Katz would step in to replace him.  Gideon Sa’ar would replace Katz as foreign minister.

“In the midst of a war, more than ever, full trust is required between the prime minister and the minister of defense,” Netanyahu said, adding that although there had been trust and “fruitful work” in the first months of the war, “during the last months this trust cracked.”

Gallant said his removal was due to disagreement on three issues, including his belief that it is possible to get the remaining hostages back from Gaza if Israel makes “painful concessions” which it “can bear.”

Many of the protesters on the streets called for Netanyahu to resign, and demanding the new defense minister prioritize a hostage deal.

Netanyahu and Gallant have long had a divisive working relationship, with rumors of Gallant’s demise resurfacing every few months.  Gallant, for example, has been unhappy at plans to continue to allow Israel’s large Ultra-Orthodox citizens to be exempt from serving in the military.

Months before the start of the war in Gaza in October 2023, Netanyahu had fired Gallant over political differences, before reinstating him following major public outcry.

Gallant released a statement late Tuesday night saying his removal from office had been “the result of disagreement on three issues.”

He believed there should be no exceptions for military service, that a national inquiry was needed to learn lessons from Oct. 7, and the hostages should be brought back as soon as possible.

--The firing of Gallant helped take the public’s eyes off a scandal involving a civilian who has been working over the past year in the office of the prime minister and is suspected of illegally obtaining and leaking classified documents to the news media.

The documents helped support Netanyahu’s reasoning for adding tough new conditions for a cease-fire deal with Hamas over the summer, amid intense public pressure for a deal to release Israeli hostages and end the fighting in Gaza.

For example, two months ago, when a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas seemed close, a new obstacle arose: Netanyahu said his troops must hold the Gaza-Egypt border to prevent Hamas from rearming and smuggling out Israeli hostages.  Many in Israel’s security establishment dismissed the demand and accused the prime minister of avoiding a deal to keep the war going.

Yet within days, two influential journals – Germany’s Bild and London’s Jewish Chronicle – published articles based on documents that supported Netanyahu’s point and suggested that Hamas was obstructing a deal.

The latest revelation roiled the nation early in the week, with critics accusing Netanyahu of torpedoing a deal to return hostages and of prolonging the war in Gaza for political reasons.  Key members of his governing coalition had threatened to quit if he made concessions to Hamas.

On Sunday, an Israeli court partially lifted a gag order to identify Eliezer Feldstein, who was hired last year to work as a spokesman in Netanyahu’s office, as a suspect in the case.  Three other suspects in the case are members of the military and security establishment, according to the court, and have not been named.

--Lebanon’s Health Ministry said on Monday that the 13-month war between Israel and Hezbollah has killed more than 3,000 people in the country, more than double the number killed since their last major war two decades ago.  The government hasn’t broken down how many of those killed were militants.

Israel says 72 of its citizens have been killed, including 30 soldiers, by Hezbollah attacks.  The IDF death toll is most likely higher.

--Israeli naval forces captured a senior Hezbollah operative in north Lebanon, the IDF said Saturday.

Earlier on Saturday, Lebanese authorities said they were investigating whether Israel was behind the brazen capture of a Lebanese sea captain who was taken away by a group of armed men who had landed on the coast near the northern town of Batroun Friday.

Two Lebanese military officials then confirmed that a naval force landed in Batroun, about 18 miles north of Beirut, and abducted a Lebanese citizen.  Neither official gave the man’s identity or said whether he was thought to have links to Hezbollah.

--Israeli strikes on Lebanon killed at least 40 people near the eastern city of Baalbek on Thursday.  Southern Beirut was also hit.

--UNICEF’s executive director warned that those remaining in northern Gaza – especially children – are “at imminent risk of dying” from disease, famine and ongoing bombardments there.

Last Friday and Saturday, at least 50 children were killed in Jabalya, where two residential buildings in which hundreds of people sought shelter were hit by strikes, according to UNICEF’s Catherine Russell.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said in a statement that it was “focused on dismantling Hamas’ military capabilities while adhering to international law and minimizing civilian harm.”

Gaza’s Health Ministry says at least 43,000 people have been killed during the war.  But like in Lebanon, the ministry doesn’t distinguish between civilians and combatants.

The IDF said that as of last weekend, 368 soldiers had been killed in its military operations in Gaza.

--On a totally different issue, Prime Minister Netanyahu directed that two rescue planes be sent immediately to Amsterdam on Friday following “a very violent incident” targeting Israeli citizens, after attacks linked to a football game were reported, and disturbing videos emerged.

Israel’s national security minister has also urged its citizens in the Dutch city to stay in their hotel rooms following the attacks.’

“Fans who went to see a football game, encountered anti-Semitism and were attacked with unimaginable cruelty just because of their Jewishness and Israeliness,” Israeli minister for security Itamar Ben-Gvir said in a post on X.

Local police said 57 people had been held after the game as pro-Palestinian demonstrators tried to reach the Johan Cruyff stadium, even though the city had forbidden them to protest there.

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Russia-Ukraine

--President Volodymyr Zelensky called on Ukraine’s allies to stop “watching” and take action to tackle the presence of North Korean troops in Russia before they start confronting his country in combat.*

Zelensky, in a video posted on Telegram, said North Korea had made progress in its military capability, missile deployment and weapons production and “now unfortunately they will learn modern warfare.”

“The first thousands of soldiers from North Korea are near the Ukrainian border.  Ukrainians will be forced to defend themselves against them,” he said.  “And the world will watch again.”

Zelensky said Ukraine had pinpointed every location where North Korean soldiers were posted in Russia.  But Kyiv’s Western allies, he said, had not supplied the long-range weapons needed to strike them.

“But instead of such necessary long-range capability, America watched, Britain watches, Germany watches...,” he said.

“Everyone in the world who truly wants the Russian war against Ukraine not to expand...must not just watch.  They must act.  Words about the inadmissibility of escalation and expansion of war must be matched with actions.”

*Wednesday, Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said a “small group” of North Korean soldiers were attacked, after numerous reports the day before.  President Zelensky said these “first battles with North Korea open a new chapter of instability in the world.”  There were casualties on the North Korean side.

Editorial / Washington Post

“Confirmation that North Korea has deployed combat troops to assist Russian President Vladimir Putin...marks a dangerous escalation.  In a worst-case scenario, it threatens to expand a European war into a global conflict encompassing the Asia-Pacific region. It is also a reminder of the high stakes of Tuesday’s U.S. presidential election, as candidates wrangle over how the United States responds to such threats. America and its allies, in Asia as well as Europe, must coordinate their response....

“Some 1,500 North Korean special forces, known as the Storm Corps, are already believed to have been deployed to Russia’s Kursk region, where Russian soldiers have been struggling to eject the Ukrainian military.

“Mr. Putin’s reliance on North Korean troops might be considered a tacit acknowledgement that this illegal invasion of Ukraine has not gone according to plan. Russia has suffered an estimated 600,000 troops killed or wounded and has had to expand an unpopular conscription.  For Russia to turn to impoverished North Korea for fresh troops might be cause to think that Ukraine, with American and NATO support, is winning.

“No one should give in to complacency.

“Mr. Putin and North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un in June signed a mutual assistance pact.  Pyongyang was already supplying Moscow with ballistic missiles and ammunition, particularly artillery shells, but the deployment of troops takes their partnership to an unnerving new level....

“Former president Donald Trump...has signaled he wants to end U.S. support for Ukraine and seek an immediate cease-fire deal, which could include forcing Ukraine to accept territorial concessions. The Europeans might still arm Ukraine even without continued U.S. help. But with Ukraine running out of troops, the addition of the North Koreans could at least incrementally help wear down European resolve....

“North Korea gets cash from Russia for its troops and access to coveted military technology it has been denied because of United Nations sanctions – technology that could be used against South Korea in the event of a conflict.  The North Korean troops will also get real battlefield training in modern-day warfare, including use of advanced weaponry and drones.  The experience would prove invaluable to the North in a future conflict with South Korea....

“A deadly axis of hostile anti-American and anti-Western powers is deepening military cooperation and is determined to challenge U.S. global primacy.  Russia, China and North Korea are nuclear powers, and Iran is an aspirant to the nuclear club.  Isolated geopolitical flash points in Europe, the Middle East and the Pacific could converge. Steadfast diplomacy, strong alliances and firm deterrence will be needed to meet this growing threat.  This is the main challenge facing the next president...”

Russia has reportedly armed the North Koreans with AK-12 assault rifles, RPK,PKM machine guns, SVD/SVCh sniper rifles, Phoenix anti-tank guided missiles, 60mm mortars, and RPG-7 anti-tank rocket launchers, Ukrainian officials said Saturday.  Others may have night vision equipment.

--Ukrainian forces allegedly struck a Russian S-300/400 air defense system southeast of Donetsk City, in occupied eastern Ukraine, using a half dozen or so U.S.-provided ATACMS missiles on Saturday. The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War tallied six more alleged strikes on Russian air defense systems across occupied Ukraine over the past two weeks.

“Russia has struggled to source the microelectronic components” critical for these air defense systems “due to Western sanctions,” ISW wrote Saturday evening.  If those attacks persist, “Russia may not be able to produce or repair a sufficient number of air defense systems to maintain the current density of Russia’s air defense coverage.”  Similar Ukrainian strikes could also affect Russian air force targeting and glide bomb strikes in the weeks ahead, ISW said.

--According to The Economist, Russian forces are increasingly targeting Ukrainian medics.  “If you put a red cross on a car, you’ll be fired on within 15 minutes.”

--Russian forces attacked Ukraine’s second-largest city Kharkiv and the surrounding region with glide bombs on Sunday, killed three and wounded at least 15 people, Kharkiv’s regional governor said, the attack damaging residential buildings, two supermarkets, a café and a shopping center.

Four interior ministry employees were among those injured.

Thursday, Russian forces launched more than 100 drones at various targets across Ukraine, Kyiv’s military said. At least 74 of those were allegedly shot down, and another 25 were marked as “lost.”

Three dozen drones were shot down over Kyiv, but falling debris caused damage to a hospital as well residential and office buildings.

Nine people were killed across the country and 60 others injured.

“Air defense, long-range capabilities, weapons packages, and sanctions against the aggressor – these are the actions required, not just words,” President Zelensky said on X.

--Russia lost its eighth general since 2022, Maj. Gen. Pavel Klimenko, reportedly killed Wednesday inside Ukraine...circumstances unclear.

Klimenko was just promoted to general this past May. Several months ago, he was accused of “setting up a torture camp in Donetsk where, according to media reports and relatives of victims, Russian soldiers were tortured and had their salaries taken away,” the BBC reports.

--From the Wall Street Journal: “Western security officials say they believe that two incendiary devices, shipped via DHL, were part of a covert Russian operation that ultimately aimed to start fires aboard cargo or passenger aircraft flying to the U.S. and Canada, as Moscow steps up a sabotage campaign against Washington and its allies.

“The devices ignited at DHL logistics hubs in July, one in Leipzig, Germany, and another in Birmingham, England.  The explosions set off a multinational race to find the culprits.

“Now investigators and spy agencies in Europe have figured out how the devices...were made and concluded that they were part of a wider Russian plot, according to security officials and people familiar with the probe.”

The “electric massagers” appear to have been a test run to see how such incendiary devices could be placed aboard planes bound for North America.  Arrests have been made in Lithuania and Poland in connection with the case.

---

Wall Street and the Economy

Thursday, as expected, the Federal Reserve cut its key interest rate by a quarter-point in response to the steady decline in inflation.  The rate cut, to a target range of 4.5%-4.75% on the funds rate, follows a larger half-point reduction in September, and it reflects the Fed’s renewed focus on supporting the job market as well as fighting inflation, which does remain above the central bank’s 2% target.

In its statement, the Federal Open Market Committee said the “unemployment rate has moved up but remains low,” while inflation has fallen closer to the central bank’s target but “remains somewhat elevated.”

Annual inflation has fallen from a 9.1% peak in mid-2022 to a 3 ½-year low of 2.4% in September, as measured by the CPI, 2.7% ex-food and energy on core PCE (personal consumption expenditures index), the Fed’s preferred inflation barometer.

There isn’t a lot to say about the Fed’s move, but in his press conference after, Chairman Jerome Powell could not have made it more clear that another cut in December isn’t a done deal.  It’s all about future data.  Powell also said the Fed can’t begin to project the impact of President-elect Trump’s plans until they actually become policy.

And Powell made it clear he’s ready to defend the central bank from political pressure, saying he wouldn’t resign if asked and insisting the incoming president doesn’t have the power to fire him or other senior Fed leaders.

“No,” Powell said firmly yesterday, when asked whether he would step down if Trump asked for his resignation.

Powell said Trump – who explored firing the Fed chief during his first term – lacks the legal authority to demote or remove the chair or other senior Fed officials in Washington.

The Fed gets to see two more readings on consumer prices and one more PCE, plus a jobs report, before it meets Dec. 17-18.

In other economic news, the October ISM services reading came in above expectations, a strong 56.0 vs. 54.9 prior (50 the dividing line between growth and contraction).  This spooked the bond market on Tuesday.

The Atlanta Fed’s very early look at fourth-quarter GDP is at 2.5%.

Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose again, this time to 6.79%, up from 6.08% on Sept. 26.

Europe and Asia

We had the eurozone PMI data for October, courtesy of S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank.  The composite PMI was exactly 50.0, a 2-month high.  The manufacturing PMI was 45.8 vs. September’s 44.9, while the services reading was 51.6 vs. 51.4 prior.

Germany: mfg. 43.0, services 51.6
France: mfg. 44.5, services 49.2
Italy: mfg. 46.9, services 52.4 (good sign)
Spain: mfg. 54.5 (32-mo. high), services 54.9 (14 months above 50.0)
Ireland: mfg. 51.5, services 53.8
Netherlands: mfg. 47.0 (10-mo. low).
Greece: mfg. 51.2

UK: mfg. 49.9, services 52.0

Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank:

“There is one bit of good news in these numbers: the recession in the manufacturing sector did not deepen further in October....

“Growth and stability are not the first words you would associate with the current economic situation in the euro area. But that is exactly what the services sector has been providing, with stable growth since early this year.”

Separately, the volume of September retail trade in the euro area rose 0.5%, compared with August; up 2.9% year-over-year.

September industrial producer prices fell 0.6% compared with August, and fell 3.4% from a year ago.

The Bank of England cut interest rates on Thursday for only the second time since 2020 and said future reductions were likely to be gradual, seeing higher inflation and growth after the new government’s first budget.

The Monetary Policy Committee voted 8-1 to cut interest rates to 4.75% from 5%.

Britain’s Conservative Party on Saturday elected Kemi Badenoch as its new leader as it tries to rebound from a crushing election defeat that ended 14 years in power.

Badenoch (pronounced BADE-enock), the first Black woman to lead a major British political party, defeated rival lawmaker Robert Jenrick in a vote of almost 100,000 members of the right-of-center Conservatives.

Badenoch replaces former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who in July led the Conservatives to their worst election result since 1832.  The Conservatives lost more than 200 seats, taking their tally down to 121.  She has a daunting task.

Germany: Chancellor Olaf Scholz is under mounting pressure to agree to an early election in January, with a new poll showing two-thirds of voters want a national ballot as soon as possible and business groups are calling for an end to political turmoil.

The survey for public broadcaster ARD gives fresh ammunition to center-right opposition leader Friedrich Merz, who accused Scholz of seeking to delay the election until March purely for party political advantage.

Germany’s government collapsed Wednesday, prompting snap elections and a new wave of uncertainty.  Chancellor Scholz was leading a three-way alliance but there were months of wrangling over budget policy and Germany’s economic direction, with the government’s popularity sinking and far-right and far-left forces surging.

Turning to Asia...China’s private Caixin services PMI for October came in at 52.0 vs. 50.3 prior, a good sign.

And then we had October exports on Wednesday, as reported by the General Administration of Customs, and they surged 12.7% year-over-year to a 27-month high of $309.06 billion, much faster than the forecasted 5% and up from a five-month low of 2.4% growth in September.  This marked the 7th consecutive month of shipment growth and the fastest since July 2022, as manufacturers are front-loading orders in anticipation of further tariffs from the U.S. and the EU.

Exports grew 8.1% to the U.S., 6.8% to Japan, and 12.7% to the EU.  For the first ten months of 2024, sales advanced by 3.3% to the U.S., and 1.9% to the EU.

October imports, however, were down 2.3% Y/Y.

Chinese Premier Li Qiang expressed confidence that the government can pull off an economic recovery, while also taking an apparent shot at the U.S. and EU over trade.

“The Chinese government has the ability to drive sustained economic improvement,” Li said in a speech Tuesday at the opening of the China International Import Expo in Shanghai.

But investors are still awaiting details of fiscal support after Beijing unveiled a stimulus package.

On Monday, China lodged a complaint with the World Trade Organization over the EU’s levies on Chinese electric vehicle imports.  The U.S. has enacted its own EV tariffs, and Washington has also worked to cut China’s access to advanced chip technology, citing military concerns.

Friday, the government then unveiled a $1.4 trillion program to help resolve its local government debt crisis, as authorities moved to shore up a slowing economy facing fresh risks from Trump’s reelection.

The funds for the debt swap plan approved by the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress will be provided through 2028.

Finance Minister Lan Fo’an also pledged to take a “more forceful” fiscal policy next year, and “actively” use the room for higher official deficit, in a sign that bolder steps could lie ahead.

But investors were disappointed there was a lack of fresh public spending to promote growth.

Japan’s October service sector PMI fell to 49.7 vs. 53.1 prior, while September household spending fell 1.3% from August, down 1.1% year-over-year.

Street Bytes

--Stocks soared Wednesday after Donald Trump’s decisive win, all three major indices hitting all-time highs, with the Dow Jones having its best day in two years (Nov. 2022), up 3.6%.

Stocks would go on to have their best week of 2024, the Dow Jones up 4.6% to 43988, the S&P 500 up 4.7% to 5995, and Nasdaq 5.7% to 19286...further all-time highs.

Investors are expecting lower taxes, deregulation and a president who is not shy to weigh in on everything from the stock market to the dollar, although fresh tariffs could bring challenges, and there are concerns we will see rising inflation and higher deficits.

Last Friday night, after I posted, we learned Nvidia and Sherwin-Williams were being added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, replacing Intel and Dow Inc.  [The two were added officially today.]

S&P Dow Jones Indices said the “changes were initiated to ensure a more representative exposure to the semiconductors industry and the materials sector respectively.”

Nvidia was hardly a surprise, the first or second-largest company in the stock market depending on the day, Apple the other.

Sherwin-Williams was a bit of a surprise.

--U.S. Treasury Yields

6-mo. 4.44%  2-yr. 4.26%  10-yr. 4.31%  30-yr. 4.48%

Wednesday, in light of Donald Trump’s win, the yield on the 10-year soared to 4.479% on the above-noted debt fears and inflation.

But by week’s end, the 10-year had fallen back to 4.31%, down six basis points from last Friday, in a reversal of the Trump trade.

Next week it’s about the CPI data.

--Oil advanced after OPEC+ agreed to push back its December production increase by one month and tensions escalated again in the Middle East, i.e., Iran escalating its rhetoric against Israel, as noted above.

But by the end of the week, the gain was only $1 from last week’s close at $70.55.

--Walmart imported 340,000 kilos of Christmas goods, as it describes, down from 1.9 million kilos in 2022, as retailers predict smaller sales increases due to stretched consumer budgets.  The retailers shipped in almost three times more product, as least 980,000 kilos, in the prior 12 months through Sept. 30, 2023, the import data shows, and that was down from the 1.9 million of Christmas products in 2022.

Walmart will provide a holiday season outlook when the company reports third-quarter results on Nov. 19.  But if Walmart is ordering less, they aren’t exactly expecting a terrific season.

--On Monday, Boeing’s machinists then voted to accept the company’s latest contract offer, ending a strike that began on Sept. 13.  Some 59% of union members voted in favor of the accord, according to the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers district representing the 33,000 striking workers.

The latest contract promises a 38% pay increase over four years, a $12,000 ratification bonus and an increased 401(k) match.  The workers rejected two previous contract offers.

“This was a defining moment tonight,” IAM District 751 President Jon Holden said.  “This is a victory. We stood strong, we stood tall, we won.”  He said more than 26,000 votes had been cast, adding that “I just want to get our members back in the factory.”

Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg moved to patch up relations with workers after the bruising strike, saying the company would pay employees who were put on mandatory leave during the disruption at its Seattle manufacturing hub.

“As we navigated through the work stoppage, we asked many of you to take a furlough to support our cash conservation efforts,” Ortberg said in a memo to staff. “We want to acknowledge your support by returning your lost pay.”

Ortberg made the temporary cuts as cash concerns mounted in the first weeks of his tenure. 

In the memo, Ortberg said the company will press ahead with job cuts to align with “our financial reality,” a sign that the pain is far from over.  Structural changes “are important to our competitiveness,” he said.  Boeing last month said it would eliminate the equivalent of about 17,000 positions to help preserve funds.

--Discount airline king Ryanair reported cheaper fares dented its profit in the six months to the end of September, but the carrier said it had record passenger growth.

The Irish airline reported on Monday that profits fell 18% in the period to $1.96 billion (1.79bn euro, for those of you playing along at home) from $2.38bn during the same period in 2023.

Ryanair carried a record 115 million passengers over the six months, the first half of its financial year.  Revenue rose 1% to $9.50bn from $9.38bn.

The average fare slipped 10% to $57 in the first half from $63 during the same period in 2023.  [Before you go, ‘Holy [Dublin],’ understand there are then lots of fees added...for everything.]

Michael O’Leary, one of the more plainspoken CEOs in the world, blamed the lower fares on higher interest rates, which put pressure on consumer spending, a drop in online travel agent bookings and the timing of Easter, which is huge for Euro travelers.  This “necessitated more price stimulation than originally expected,” he added.

Traffic, however, was up 9% despite repeated delays in ordered new aircraft from Boeing.

O’Leary cautioned that conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and air traffic control short-staffing and restrictions, could affect the final outcome for the full year, which ends on March 31st.

“As is normal at this time of year, we have almost zero quarter four visibility,” O’Leary said.  [Irish Times]

I glance at the Irish Times each morning and I have been following efforts at Dublin Airport to restrict the number of flights because of noise issues with folks who live near this crowded area, and that would impact Ryanair.

--TSA checkpoint numbers vs. 2023

11/7...98 percent of 2023 levels
11/6...95
11/5...95
11/4...96
11/3...99
11/2...98
11/1...103
10/31...89

--Berkshire Hathaway releases earnings on Saturdays and so last weekend the conglomerate reported that it had cut its holdings in Apple and Bank of America and increased its cash to a record high of $325.2 billion.

Berkshire also reported on Saturday a 6 percent decline in quarterly operating profit, largely the result of higher liabilities for its insurance companies, including for Hurricane Helene, and currency losses from a strengthening dollar.

These costs offset improved profitability at the Geico car insurer, where accident claims and expenses fell.  Profit also rose at the BNSF railroad, which shipped more consumer goods.

In its quarterly report, Berkshire said it sold about 100 million of its Apple shares, or 25 percent, over the summer, ending with about 300 million shares.  It has now sold more than 600 million Apple shares this year, though Apple remained Berkshire’s largest stock holding, at $69.9 billion.

Including Bank of America shares, Berkshire sold $36.1 billion of stock, in the quarter, while buying just $1.5 billion of stock, the eighth straight quarter when it was a net seller of stocks.

It also purchased none of its own stock, suggesting Warren Buffett doesn’t view even his own company’s shares as a bargain.

Operating profit from Berkshire’s dozens of businesses fell to $10.09 billion, from $10.76 billion a year earlier.

Net income totaled $26.26 billion compared with a loss of $12.77 billion a year ago when falling stock prices reduced the value of Berkshire’s investments.

Buffett has said operating results better reflect Berkshire’s performance. Accounting rules require Berkshire to report unrealized investment gains and losses when it reports net income, adding volatility that Buffett counsels investors to ignore.

Buffett is now 94, but he will eventually transfer full leadership to Berkshire’s vice chairman, Greg Abel, 62.

But back to the insurance side, while Berkshire released strong results, there was a pretax charge of $490 million taken by National Indemnity, a longstanding Berkshire insurance unit, related to the bankruptcy of a company, Whittaker, Clark & Daniels, felled by asbestos-related talc liability. Whittaker, Clark is controlled by a Berkshire Hathway affiliate.

--CVS Health on Wednesday reported a third-quarter adjusted profit of $1.09 per share, less than half of the $2.21 it earned a year ago, due to unexpected spending on medical services in its health insurance unit.  But this was in line with the company’s earlier earnings warning.

During the third quarter, CVS recorded a charge of about $1.1 billion related to anticipated fourth-quarter losses in its insurance business that serves Medicare and individual health plans.

CVS also announced that Steve Nelson, a former UnitedHealth insurance head, was named to run its Aetna business.

The company declined to provide a forecast for all of 2024, and investors actually seemed pleased by this move.

The healthcare conglomerate confirmed it would take $1.2 billion in restructuring charges for layoffs, store closures and closing down certain businesses. 

The shares, severely beaten this year, rose 10% in response to the update and management changes.

--Shares in renewable energy firms plunged on Wednesday as Donald Trump won a second term on a platform that promised to boost fossil fuels and undo the green agenda of his predecessor.

Trump has vowed to end the country’s offshore wind efforts as one of his first measures after taking office. 

--Bitcoin surged to a record of more than $75,000 (and $77,000 early today), as cryptocurrency investors expressed optimism over a new term for Donald Trump.  For the last two years, the Biden administration has conducted an aggressive crackdown to curb securities violations by crypto companies, forcing some of those firms offshore and raising questions about the industry’s long-term future in the U.S.

But Trump has promised to end the regulatory push and establish the U.S. as the “crypto capital of the planet.”

--Shares in Tesla soared from $249 last Friday to $322 today...totally on the Trump trade, and the relationship Elon has with his new best buddy.

‘Every company must do this, except Elon’ ... ‘I am signing an executive order shutting down all your businesses, except Elon’s....’

--Shares in Super Micro continued to plummet, from a 52-week high of $122 to $22 on Thursday, after the company provided a worse-than-expected business update for its revenue Tuesday. 

Revenue in the fiscal first quarter came in at $5.9 billion to $6 billion, below estimates for $6.44bn.

Super Micro’s outlook was also weak.  It guided the current quarter to a range of $5.5 billion to $6.1bn in sales versus the $6.84 billion consensus.  The company said the financial update is preliminary and subject to change.

Recall, this is the company that announced last week its accounting firm, Ernst & Young, resigned because EY could “no longer” rely on management’s and the Audit Committee’s representations.

--Nissan Motor said it will cut 9,000 jobs and reduce its global production capacity by a fifth as it struggles with falling sales, particularly in China, where a price war and a surge of local EV offerings have hit foreign brands hard.

The Japanese carmaker also downgraded its annual sales and earnings forecasts after swinging to a quarterly loss and said it would reduce its stake in Mitsubishi Motors.  Nissan’s chief executive said he would take a voluntary 50% pay cut.

“It may look like the company is shrinking through these turnaround efforts, but I believe it is my mission to return it to a growth trajectory,” CEO Makoto Uchida said Thursday at a press briefing.

Nissan had about 134,000 full-time employees as of the end of March.

The carmaker now expects global sales to drop 1.2% to 3.4 million units for the current fiscal year, down from 3.65 million units projected previously.

--Ferrari stock slipped on Tuesday after the Italian luxury automaker reported third quarter results that were in line with expectations but deliveries that slumped compared to a year ago.

Despite growth in revenue and profit, deliveries in the quarter dropped 2% versus a year ago to 3,383 units.  Most regions saw slight sales growth (led by the Americas at 4%), but China shipments tumbled 22%.

--Yum Brands Inc. on Tuesday reported third-quarter earnings of $382 million.

The Louisville, Kentucky-based company said it had profit of $1.35 per share. Earnings, adjusted for one-time gains and costs, were $1.37 per share.

The results fell short of Street expectations. The consensus was for $1.41.

The parent company of KFC, Taco Bell and Pizza Hut posted revenue of $1.83 billion in the period, also falling short of Street forecasts.  KFC’s same-store sales in the U.S. fell 5%, marking their third straight quarter of declines this year.

The drop came even as Yum in August launched $5 offers on two new items under its “Taste of KFC” value menu.  The company was responding to the ongoing “value wars” in the fast-food industry from peers such as McDonald’s and Burger King.

Yum’s Taco Bell, by contrast, remained a bright spot, with U.S. same-store sales rising 4%, the 11th straight quarter of increase.

Yum’s worldwide comp sales fell 2%.  Pizza Hut faced the protracted impact from boycotts related to Israel’s war in Gaza.

--Over the weekend TGI Fridays Inc. filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.  The company said in a statement that fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic was the “primary driver of our financial challenges” and it will use the Chapter 11 process to “explore strategic alternatives in order to ensure the long-term viability of the brand.”

But the bankruptcy affects TGI Fridays’ parent company, which operates 39 restaurants, and not the franchisees that control the remaining locations.  The company has secured financing so all restaurants will operate as usual while it navigates the bankruptcy process.

They did close down 50 locations two weeks ago, bringing the count down to 163.  It once had 270 U.S. locations.

TGI Friday’s is also having problems in the UK, where dozens of restaurants have been closed, resulting in 1,000 job losses.

--Primetime coverage of the presidential election averaged 42.29 million viewers across 18 cable and broadcast networks from 7-11 p.m. ET, according to Nielsen.  That’s a steep, 26% decline from four years ago, which drew 56.92 million viewers, and the least watched election night since the ratings service began keeping total viewer tallies in 2000.

Fox News led the 8-11 p.m. ET block with 10.32 million views, MSNBC (6.01 million) finished second, narrowly beating ABC’s 5.9 million.  NBC averaged 5.51 million, followed by CNN (5.1m), CBS (3.61m) and the Fox broadcast network (2 million).

It was the first time CNN didn’t finish ahead of MSNBC.  In 2020, 9.6 million watched CNN.

Meanwhile, nearly 50 million people have listened to Joe Rogan’s interview of Donald Trump.

--Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (DJT) shares were all over the place.  It was actually ‘buy the rumor, sell the fact,’ as the stock fell from $44 Wednesday morning, after the election, to around $30.50 at 3:00 p.m. ET today.

--Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“America is slowly losing a generation of entrepreneurial giants, and the latest is Bernie Marcus, co-founder of The Home Depot, who died Monday at age 95. On the cusp of 50 years old he built a successful business that created jobs and wealth for hundreds of thousands.

“Marcus was the son of Russian Jewish immigrants and grew up in Newark, N.J.  He was admitted to Harvard Medical School but couldn’t afford the tuition. He went to Rutgers instead, earned a pharmacy degree, and became interested in retailing.

“He became the CEO of the Handy Dan chain of home improvement stores but was fired at age 49 in a fight over corporate control.  He and Arthur Blank, aided by banker Ken Langone, then founded The Home Depot, opening its first two stores in 1979.

“The one-stop warehouse store revolutionized the home improvement industry. Many Americans who never thought they could replace a kitchen or fix a bathroom sink learned they could.  Home Depot provided the materials and the knowledgeable staff who could help homeowners realize their plans and dreams.

“Today more than 475,000 men and women provide for their families with the paychecks they earn from Home Depot.  Its profits benefit shareholders by boosting their investment and retirement.  And its 2,300 stores in the U.S., Canada and Mexico serve millions every day with quality goods and services. That’s a legacy surpassing anything the average politician, or the average Congress for that matter, ever accomplishes.”

--And Elwood Edwards died.  He was 74.  He voiced AOL’s ever-present “You’ve got mail” greeting, which he taped in 1989 into a recorder while sitting in the living room of his home.

He was paid $200 in all, including for “Welcome,” “Goodbye,” and “File’s done.”

Foreign Affairs

China: Editorial / The Economist...a different angle on North Korea’s cooperation with Russia against Ukraine....

“Officials from China have avoided direct comment on North Korea’s dispatch of thousands of troops to Russia, where they might help in a conflict that all three countries see as a contest against overweening American might.  China itself is a crucial if undeclared backer of Russia’s war effort in Ukraine, providing technological support for Russia’s defense industries.  But behind closed doors, Chinese officials may question North Korea’s move.

“To celebrate their forging of diplomatic relations 75 years ago, China and North Korea describe 2024 as a ‘year of friendship.’  China insists that their ties are ‘as close as lips and teeth.’  But on Chinese social media – which are normally heavily censored to skew opinion in favor of authoritarian countries – some netizens with large followings have been wondering whether North Korea may have harmed China’s interests.

“On October 24th, a day after America said there was evidence that North Korean troops were in Russia, a Chinese foreign-ministry spokesman said ‘China does not have information on that.’  On Weibo, a microblogging site, a reporter for state media, Zhao Lingmin, told her more than 1m followers that this indicated China had not been informed in advance of North Korea’s action, ‘which is clearly a sign of disrespect.’  Qiu Zhenhai, a well-known political commentator with nearly 2m followers on Weibo, went further.  ‘So, who is the biggest direct victim in this situation? It’s China,’ he said. He fretted about the possibility of Russia returning the favor by helping North Korea in a war on the Korean peninsula that could result in nuclear conflict on China’s doorstep.

“Many analysts agree that China is peeved by North Korea’s apparent tilt towards Russia.  Since last year the two countries’ leaders, Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin, have exchanged chummy visits. These have resulted not only in the deployment of North Korean troops (into the Kursk region of Russia), but also massive shipments to Russia of North Korean shells and missiles. In return, Russia is providing North Korea with economic and military aid, Western officials believe.  ‘The Chinese always like to say that they have no influence over North Korea, but they guard their influence,’ says Victor Cha of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think-tank in Washington.  He says China has ‘lost control’ there....

“China has more at stake than Russia in preserving stability on the Korean peninsula. A conflict there could have a big impact on Chinese cities close to the border. China, which has a defense treaty with North Korea, may even get dragged in.  If things kicked off, China would want to keep American power at bay, as it did during the Korean War of 1950-53....

“Despite China’s concerns about Russia’s relationship with North Korea, it is pleased to see the West distracted, divided and fatigued by the war in Ukraine.  China may even sense an opportunity. It may try to exploit Western hopes that it could help rein in North Korean support for Russia, says Seong-Hyon Lee of the Harvard University Asia Center.  ‘China will demand a price for that,’ he says.  But even if it is willing to try, China may find it hard to bend Mr. Kim to its will.”

Josh Rogin / Washington Post...on a topic I’ve mentioned more than once recently....

“Last week, the Chinese hacking and spying operation known as ‘Salt Typhoon’ was revealed to have targeted former president Donald Trump and his running mate, Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, as well as staffers for Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign and for Congress.  The Post has reported that the hackers were able to collect audio and text messages from their targets in a wide-ranging espionage operation, which likely began several months ago.

“But what is less well understood, according to six current and former senior U.S. officials I spoke with from both parties, all of whom were briefed by the U.S. intelligence community on the operation, is that the threat is much broader. The Chinese hackers, who the United States believes are linked to Beijing’s Ministry of State Security, have burrowed inside the private wiretapping and surveillance system that American telecom companies built for the exclusive use of U.S. federal law enforcement agencies – and the U.S. government believes they likely continue to have access to the system.  Millions of mobile-phone users on the networks of at least three major U.S. carriers could thus be ongoingly vulnerable to Chinese government surveillance.

“The U.S. government and the telecom companies that are dealing with the breach have said very little publicly about it since it was first detected in August, leaving the public to rely on details trickling out through leaks.  If millions of Americans are vulnerable to Chinese surveillance, they have a right to know now.  More information needs to be shared, despite the sensitivity of the issue....

“ ‘It is much more serious and much worse than even what you all presume at this point,’ Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Mark R. Warner (D-Virginia) said.  ‘It is one of the most serious breaches in my time on the Intelligence Committee.’....

“Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (Ill.), the ranking Democrat on the (House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party) told me during an interview that Congress and the federal government spent years working to keep Chinese technology out of the U.S. telecom system for fear Beijing might use it to spy on Americans. Now, Chinese intelligence might have outmaneuvered them by breaking in through the back door, he said....

“The Chinese government could use its infiltration of U.S. telecom networks to disable them during warfare, for instance. The information collected from Americans could be used for blackmail or disinformation campaigns.

“ ‘Not only are they potentially inserting malware to disrupt our telecommunications networks.  On top of that, it’s a surveillance system,’ the congressman told me.

“Krishnamoorthi said he believes the companies have a moral and perhaps a legal obligation to inform their customers about a breach of this nature. Americans can only change their practices – by relying more on encrypted apps, for instance – if they are aware of the threat, he said.”

And my friends make fun of me for never using my phone...it’s one of the few smart things I have done over the years!

Meanwhile, in Taiwan, opposition parties are furious with the island’s High Court for ruling against opposition-led reforms to increase legislative oversight that is now expected to deepen political divides and make life far more complicated for President William Lai Ching-te’s administration.

Lai’s cabinet vetoed the bills on June 11, only to be overridden by the opposition in a 62-51 vote by lawmakers. This prompted the executive body to request a constitutional review, on the grounds that the bills might be an overreach of the legislature’s authority.

All of this of course plays into China’s hands.

Iran: Federal prosecutors in Manhattan said this afternoon that Iranian plotters had discussed a plan to assassinate Donald Trump before he was re-elected this week.

One of the plotters said that he was assigned in September to carry out the plan by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards and “focus on surveilling, and ultimately, assassinating” Trump, according to a criminal complaint filed in Manhattan federal court.

“The charges announced today expose Iran’s continued brazen attempts to target U.S. citizens, including President-elect Donald Trump, other government leaders and dissidents who criticize the regime in Tehran,” said FBI Director Christopher Wary.

Iran “has been conspiring with criminals and hit men to target and gun down Americans on U.S. soil and that simply won’t be tolerated,” he said.

Moldova: President Maia Sandu sought re-election in a runoff on Sunday with major geopolitical implications beyond the tiny nation.  Sandu is determined to persuade her country that the path toward European Union integration is the right one, but also one Russia is keen to derail.  A referendum two weeks ago on future membership unexpectedly saw Moldova split down the middle.

And in the vote against Alexandr Stoianoglo, a former general prosecutor who favors closer ties with Moscow, Sandu claimed a second term, defeating Stoianoglo with almost 55% of the vote.

In her acceptance speech, Sandu promised to be president for all Moldovans.  It’s impressive that despite “massive interference” from Russia in Moldova’s electoral process, this result stuck.

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen congratulated Sandu, saying “it takes a rare kind of strength to overcome the challenges you’ve faced in this election.

“I’m glad to continue working with you towards a European future for Moldova and its people,” her message on X said.

Random Musings

--Presidential approval ratings....

Gallup: 41% approve of President Biden’s job performance, 56% disapprove; 38% of independents approve (Oct. 14-27).

Rasmussen: 43% approve, 55% disapprove (Nov. 8)

--For the record, the final New York Times / Siena College poll of the battleground states had the following, looking at likely voters:

Arizona: Trump 49-45
Georgia: Harris 48-47
Michigan: Tied 47-47
Nevada: Harris 49-46
North Carolina: Harris 48-46
Pennsylvania: Tied 48-48
Wisconsin: Harris 49-47

--But we also had the shock Des Moines Register/Medicacom Iowa Poll released Saturday, that showed, among 808 likely voters, who were surveyed Oct. 28-31, Kamala Harris led Donald Trump 47%-44%.  Back in September, the same poll had Trump with a 4-point lead.

And boy, did the folks at the Register get it very, very wrong.  Iowa went to Trump 56-43, after he took it in 2020, 54-44.

--Some of the following is simply for the archives, to describe the scene heading into Tuesday’s vote....

In a significant ruling last Friday after I posted, the Supreme Court unanimously cleared the way for Pennsylvania voters to submit provisional ballots as a remedy for improperly cast absentee ballots in Tuesday’s presidential election, turning aside a last-minute Republican challenge to voting rules in a crucial battleground state.

The justices rejected a request by Pennsylvania Republicans and the Republican National Committee to block a ruling by Pennsylvania’s high court that allowed the fix for voters who failed to use a security envelope with their absentee ballot as required by state law.

A prior ruling by the Pennsylvania high court had ended any chance that mail-in ballots with a missing or incorrect date on the outside envelope would be counted this election.  The issue was expected to affect thousands of votes.

--Among the final comments made during the last campaign stops by Donald Trump was that he “shouldn’t have left” the White House after the 2020 election.  At a rally in Lititz, Pa., Trump made his lengthiest and most expansive comments on voter fraud in the final stretch of the election.  He also referred to Democrats as a “demonic” party and portrayed himself as the center of conspiratorial efforts to keep him from winning the election.  And Trump complained about the above Times/Siena College final survey, as well as the shock Des Moines Register-Mediacom poll.

“I shouldn’t have left, I mean, honestly,” Trump said in Lititz.  He added, “We did so well, we had such a great ...” and then cut himself off.  He then immediately noted “so now, every polling booth has hundreds of lawyers standing there.”

Back in 2020, according to a former aide, Trump said, “I’m just not going to leave.  We’re never leaving,” and added: “How can you leave when you won an election.”

Trump spent nearly 20 minutes trying to instill doubts about the election, reviving a host of baseless claims of widespread fraud that he made in 2020.

“They are fighting so hard to steal this damn thing,” Trump said, referring to unspecified “crooked people.”

“We got a bunch of cheaters that all they do is think about how they can cheat,” he said later on.

He claimed that voter machines would be hacked, that elections needed to be called by 11 p.m. on Tuesday night and that efforts to extend polling hours to allow more people to vote – something his own party has pushed for in Pennsylvania – were tantamount to fraud.

Trump, while riffing, also pointed to the protective glass encasing him now at outdoor rallies since the assassination attempt in Butler, Pa.  “To get to me, somebody would have to shoot through fake news, and I don’t mind that much, ‘cause, I don’t mind. I don’t mind,” he said, as some in the crowd laughed and howled.

[With Trump’s win...funny, there was no talk of election fraud after.]

For her part, Kamala Harris took time out to appear on “Saturday Night Live,”.

--Robert F. Kennedy Jr. earned his own headlines, saying Saturday that Trump would seek to remove fluoride from drinking water, potentially reversing what is widely considered one of the most important public health interventions of the past century.  The American Dental Association has said that water fluoridation reduces dental decay in children and adults, and that thousands of studies have shown it is safe.  Trump has pledged that Kennedy will be in his administration if he wins and said he would let him “go wild” on issues of health and the environment.

--Elon Musk’s pro-Trump group did not choose the winners of its $1 million-a-day giveaway to registered voters at random, but instead picked people who would be good spokespeople for its agenda, a lawyer for Musk said on Monday.

But the giveaway survived the legal challenge by Philadelphia’s district attorney ahead of Tuesday’s election as a judge in Pennsylvania declined to block it.

Judge Angelo Foglietta on Monday rejected a request to halt the contest by the DA, who called it an illegal lottery.  The ruling, which didn’t include any reasoning, came shortly after a hearing where Musk’s lawyer said that the contest winners weren’t picked at random.

--Hours before Americans headed to the polls on Tuesday, the U.S. intelligence community said Russia was spreading fake news stories to create the perception that officials in key swing states are preparing to commit various acts of election fraud, as reported by Defense One’s Patrick Tucker.

Russian email domains were used to send bomb threats to polling places, but these were later deemed not “credible” by law enforcement.

--The special counsel overseeing the federal criminal cases against Donald Trump is preparing to drop the prosecutions of the president-elect before he is sworn in, according to a Justice Department official.

Special Counsel Jack Smith is evaluating how to wind down two federal cases against Trump in order to comply with a department policy that a sitting president can’t be prosecuted, said the official, who asked to remain anonymous speaking about non-public matters.  Smith may still seek to prosecute two of Trump’s co-defendants in one of the cases.

A Justice Department policy put in place in 2000 states that “the indictment or criminal prosecution of a sitting President would unconstitutionally undermine the capacity of the executive branch to perform its constitutionally assigned functions.”

Smith may choose to leave the special counsel position when Trump takes office but it wasn’t clear whether he would leave the Justice Department or move to another position.  If Smith remains in the department, Trump could seek to have him fired when he takes office.

--President-elect Trump named Susie Wiles, one of the top architects of his 2024 campaign, as his White House chief of staff.

“Susie Wiles just helped me achieve one of the greatest political victories in American history,” Trump said in a statement Thursday.  “Susie is tough, smart, innovative, and is universally admired and respected.  Susie will continue to work tirelessly to Make America Great Again.”

Wiles, a veteran Republican political operative, will be the first-ever female White House chief of staff and wield a lot of power over operations in the West Wing, and who has access to the president.

At least that’s the plan. Wiles stipulated that she won’t allow those in the “clown car” to have access to the president, but we don’t know who comprises the clown car in the Trump camp’s eyes these days.

--In local election results here in my state of New Jersey, my congressman, Republican Tom Kean Jr., won re-election more easily than we expected, 52-46.  The other district that starts literally about 150 yards from me re-elected moderate Democrat Mikie Sherrill 56-42.

And to replace the disgraced Democratic Senator Bob Menendez, New Jersey is sending the first Korean American senator to Washington, Democrat Andy Kim, who defeated Republican Curtis Bashaw 53-44.

In New York, I was happy to see incumbent Republican Rep. Mike Lawler whip Democrat Mondaire Jones, 52-46.

--I wrote last Friday that the flooding disaster in Spain was a challenge for a “fragile government,” and by Saturday we saw this as the people raged against both the government and the monarchy for the seeming lack of support.

Families along the Mediterranean coast took to the country’s airwaves to plead for help finding lost loved ones, while on Monday the government deployed hundreds more troops to help with the search for victims.

Monday, the Interior Ministry said the death toll had risen to 215 (now 223), as some people were accusing government officials of waiting too long to send warnings.  And the situation only worsened with up to a foot of new rain Monday in some places, including as many as 11 inches in Barcelona over the course of the day.  And rain fell in Valencia, the region hit hardest by the flash floods.

Spain’s meteorological agency started issuing weather warnings days before the storm intensified last week and issued a flurry of them a week ago last Tuesday morning, when rains were heaviest.

But the regional government in Valencia, which controls the formal alert system, did not send out a text message with an alert until after 8 p.m. that day, when the floodwaters were already rising.

Protesters screamed insults and flung mud at King Felipe VI, Queen Letizia, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and Carlos Mazon, the leader of the Valencia region, as they toured the damage Saturday and Sunday.  Sanchez had to be whisked away for his security.  Chants of “murderer” were directed at King Felipe.

The deadly storm of last week was caused by a cold front colliding with the warm waters of the Mediterranean Sea, which have been super-heated by climate change.  Spain has suffered from severe droughts and heatwaves, but meteorologists warn that these super storms will become more frequent, too.  From a policy standpoint, you need to move housing away from floodplains.

--From the South China Morning Post:

“The magnetic field over North America is weakening at an unusually rapid rate, while the field over the eastern hemisphere, including China, is strengthening, according to a study conducted by Chinese military researchers.

“Scientists are still trying to determine the cause, but an initial guess is that it may be related to the shift of the geomagnetic poles from the western to the eastern hemisphere.

“ ‘The geomagnetic field is a natural barrier to protect the Earth,’ wrote the project team led by Professor Fang Hanxian with the National University of Defense Technology in a peer-reviewed paper published last month.

“The field blocks deadly cosmic rays from reaching the ground, according to the team, ‘playing a crucial role in maintaining environmental stability.’

“In 2018, a study by scientists from the National Autonomous University of Mexico found that decades of ‘low geomagnetic field strength prevailed at the Maya area just before the so-called Mayan Collapse,’ according to their paper in the Journal of Archaeological Science.

“Similarly, in 2006, researchers with the Paris Institute of Planetary Physics found that the sudden changes in the magnetic field might be linked to the downfall of ancient civilizations in Iran and Syria some 4,000 years ago.”

--Lightning does kill.  A lightning strike at a refugee camp in Uganda last Saturday evening killed 13 children and one adult as they were attending a church service.  Yes, sometimes life isn’t fair.

--The National Weather Service, and other weather folks like from the National Hurricane Center, unfortunately got the hurricane season correctly...an active, immensely devastating one for the United States.

This week, Hurricane Rafael rapidly into intensified into a Category 3, slamming into western Cuba, the fifth major hurricane of the year in the Atlantic and the strongest in the basin this late in the year since 2020.

Cuba’s electricity grid was forced to shut down, according to the country’s national energy company.  More than 70,000 people were evacuated before the storm made landfall.  Cuba has suffered repeated blackouts in recent weeks.

But conditions are such that Rafael will be weakening as it heads west in the Gulf and is no threat to Florida, for one.

--This year is “virtually certain” to eclipse 2023 as the world’s warmest since records began, the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) said on Thursday.

The data was released ahead of a climate summit in Azerbaijan. C3S said that from January to October, the average global temperature had been so high that 2024 was sure to be the world’s hottest year – unless the temperature anomaly in the rest of the year plunged to near-zero.

We had record temperatures in my area early in the week, in the 80s Wednesday, as the drought intensified.  Newark, which is my weather, only we’re a degree or two cooler, saw its streak of days without rain hit 40 on Friday, the old record being 26!  But rain is coming Sunday...though not much.

The Passaic River, about 200 yards from me, has never been lower (when this spring, I never saw it higher!).

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Pray for the men and women of our armed forces...and all the fallen.

Pray for Ukraine....and the remaining hostages in Gaza.

God bless America.

---

Gold $2695
Oil $70.55

Bitcoin: $76,715 [4:00 PM ET, Friday]

Regular Gas: $3.09; Diesel: $3.56 [$3.40 - $4.39 yr. ago]

Returns for the week 11/4-11/8

Dow Jones  +4.6%  [43988]
S&P 500  +4.7%  [5995]
S&P MidCap  +6.3%
Russell 2000  +8.6%
Nasdaq  +5.7%  [19286]

Returns for the period 1/1/24-11/8/24

Dow Jones  +16.7%
S&P 500  +25.7%
S&P MidCap  +18.5%
Russell 2000  +18.4%
Nasdaq  +28.5%

Bulls 56.7
Bears 21.7...Bear reading hasn’t changed much in months.

Hang in there.  We made it through Election Day.  Congrats, fellow Americans!

Brian Trumbore

 

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