Week in Review

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Week in Review

11/23/2024

For the week 11/18-11/22

[Posted 4:30 PM ET, Friday]

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Edition 1,335

One down...three to go.  Matt Gaetz out as nominee for Attorney General; Pete Hegseth (Defense), Tulsi Gabbard (director of national intelligence) and RFK Jr. (HHS) remaining.

At least that’s how some of us see it. 

President-elect Donald Trump has made some excellent, rational picks for his cabinet, such as Marco Rubio (secretary of state) and Mike Waltz (national security adviser), but some of the others, kind of wacky, let alone unqualified for major positions.  I get into more details below, but it’s telling what Trump said today about the possibility of selecting former Michigan Rep. Mike Rogers, a former FBI agent, and ex-chairman of the House Select Committee on Intelligence.

From deputy chief of staff Dan Scavino: “Just spoke to President Trump regarding Mike Rogers going to the FBI. It’s not happening – in his own words, ‘I have never even given it a thought.’  Not happening.”

That’s pathetic.  No one would be more qualified than Mike Rogers.  For virtually any cabinet position, frankly.  But MAGA doesn’t want him.

Such is life as we return to Trump World.

Meanwhile, this was a brutal week in Ukraine.  The winter weather has set in as Russia further ramps up its attacks on the energy infrastructure, Vladimir Putin’s cruelty knowing no bounds as he attempts to inflict the worst possible humanitarian conditions on the Ukrainian people, while he tests a new intermediate-range ballistic missile, and ramps up the nuclear rhetoric.

It is beyond critical that military aid to Ukraine be sped up in these critical weeks before the new Trump administration comes into power, bringing with it all the uncertainty on just what the Ukraine policy will be.

If you live in Poland, the Baltic states, Sweden and Finland in particular, you have every right to be nervous this Christmas season. And that’s not fair.

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Gerard Baker / Wall Street Journal

“We’re all familiar with the details of Hans Christian Andersen’s moral parable: the unscrupulous tailors who trick a vain monarch into believing their empty work is a fashion innovation, the ambitious courtiers who go along with the fiction and vie with each other for the king’s favor, the crowds who silence their shock at the emperor’s nudity for fear of standing out from the rest, and the small boy who alone calls out the truth in the charade.

“For a decade or more – yes, even when Republicans have been nominally in control – we have been led by peddlers of a set of ideas that have clothed our institutions and our country in social and political doctrines, fake claims and strictures that have inflicted untold harms....

“The idea that democracy and freedom are best protected by denying people the right to express certain views that the authorities deem ‘misinformation’ and by weaponizing the law against political opponents lest they weaponize the law for political purposes.

“Ambitious elites in business and civil society went along with the fictions. Politicians on all sides, including Republicans, declined to dissent for fear of being called out.  It took a man with some of the instincts of a child, a political ingenue lacking the sophistication to participate in the sham, to call the whole thing out for what it was.

“Much of what Mr. Trump promises for his second term leaves me cold.  I doubt, despite a shiny new Department of Government Efficiency, that we are on the brink of eliminating waste. I doubt that imposing tariffs on trillions of dollars of imports will do anything but depress domestic productivity and lower living standards for Americans. I doubt that installing oddballs in high office will result in anything other than mayhem and mischief.

“But here’s what I am optimistic about: Four years from now, there’s a good chance that the nonsense we have had to endure will be buried, that important things will have become normal again.

“It will have become normal to tell people who have no right to be here that they must leave, and that in the process people around the world will have been made to understand that they don’t have an automatic right to live in the freest and most prosperous country on earth.

“It will have become normal for the nation to exploit its enormous energy advantages for its own economic benefit and know that the planet won’t explode as a result.  It will have become normal again for children to be helped to respond to the inevitable strains and traumas of growing up not by having their genitals cut out, but by receiving loving guidance and care from family and society; that people will be judged on the basis of their talents and ability, not on their claims of oppression by ancestors six generations in the past, and it will not be automatically assumed that because you are white you should be punished for your supposed persecution of others.  It will have become normal to be able to say what you think – on university campuses, in the media, on technology platforms – however unpalatable some people may find it.

“And that, to my mind, is progress.”

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Russia-Ukraine

--Last Friday, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called Vladimir Putin and urged Putin to engage in peace talks, as some European leaders say there is an increasing recognition that Volodymyr Zelensky will have to compromise with Putin because it has become clear that neither side can secure a decisive victory.

Putin told Scholz that he has been open to talks but that any agreement would have to take into account Russia’s security concerns and its territorial gains.

Saturday, President Zelensky said in an interview, “We, from our side, must do everything so that next year, this war ends by diplomatic means. This is very important.”

Zelensky said he expects President-elect Trump to conclude the war quickly, without offering specifics.  Trump famously said he can end the war in Ukraine in ’24 hours.’

Kyiv, though, won’t enter into negotiations or peace talks from a weak position, Zelensky said, adding that Ukraine should not be “left alone with the Russian Federation” to craft a solution to the conflict.

“For us, the victory means a strong Ukraine. Whether that’s in diplomacy or on the battlefield is another question.  But we have already proved that ‘sit and listen’ rhetoric does not work with us,” Zelensky said.

The Ukrainian president repeated his assessment that Vladimir Putin is interested in long negotiations in order to break his isolation, without the intention to reach a deal beyond Ukraine’s total surrender.

“Sitting, talking and agreeing on nothing – this is what is beneficial for Putin,” Zelensky said.

Separately, Zelensky criticized Chancellor Scholz’s call with Putin as “exactly what Putin has wanted for a long time” to chip away at Moscow’s isolation on the world stage.

And then in an interview with Fox that aired Tuesday, Zelensky said that if President-elect Trump cuts military funding to Kyiv, “I think we will lose.  We will fight. We have our production, but it’s not enough to prevail.”

--Overnight on Saturday, Russia launched what is thought to be its biggest coordinated assault in months, killing at least 10 people. Around 120 missiles and 90 drones were launched, according to Zelensky.  Ukrainian defenses shot down 140 air targets.  Several regions were left without power, including Kyiv.

“The enemy’s target was our energy infrastructure throughout Ukraine.  Unfortunately, there is damage to objects from hits and falling debris.  In Mykolaiv, as a result of a drone attack, two people were killed and six others were injured,” Zelensky said.

Attacks continued on Sunday evening, with officials in Sumy region – near the Russian border – reporting another 11 killed, including two children, after a missile hit a residential building.

Russian officials in the border region of Bryansk reported a Ukrainian drone attack on Sunday night but said its defenses had shot down 26 drones.

--On the eve of his last G-20 summit, President Biden finally authorized the use of U.S.-supplied long-range missiles by Ukraine to strike inside Russia, U.S. officials said.

The decision was a major U.S. policy shift as Biden prepares to leave office and President-elect Trump has pledged to limit American support for Ukraine and end the war as soon as possible.

It was expected the weapons would be used in part to respond to North Korea’s decision to send thousands of troops to Rusia.

Biden began to ease restrictions on the use of U.S.-supplied weapons on Russian soil after Russia launched a cross-border assault in May in the direction of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city.

To help the Ukrainians defend Kharkiv, Mr. Biden allowed them to use the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS, which have a range of about 50 miles, against Russian forces directly across the border.  But Biden did not allow the Ukrainians to use longer-range ATACMS, which have a range of about 190 miles, in defense of Kharkiv.

Officials said they do not expect the shift to fundamentally alter the course of the war, but it is intended to send a message to the North Koreans* that their forces are vulnerable and that they should not send more of them.

*North Korea could deploy as many as 100,000 troops to aid Russia’s war on Ukraine if the alliance between Pyongyang and Moscow continues to deepen, according to assessments made by some Group of 20 nations.

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“Donald Trump says he will try to end the war soon, though how he will do that is far from certain.  But the ATACMS decision and military aid could help promote a settlement if it puts Ukraine in a stronger negotiating position.

“The Trump camp leaked that, in a recent phone call, the former and future President had asked Vladimir Putin not to escalate in Ukraine.  Mr. Putin’s blunt reply to that request is the North Korean troop deployment and the weekend missile barrage.  The attempt to destroy Ukraine’s energy supply is especially cruel as winter nears. The Kremlin dictator also wants Ukrainian troops out of Russia to strengthen his position and not have to trade his control of portions of eastern Ukraine.

“Mr. Putin is telling Mr. Trump that his settlement terms will be harsh.  Mr. Trump will have to calculate his policy accordingly.”

Russia responded angrily to America lifting its ban. The Kremlin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, warned of a “whole new spiral of tension.”  Overnight Sunday, Russia responded with its strike on Sumy.

Russia then hit Sumy again late Monday, hitting a dormitory and killing at least 12, including children. Another attack Monday on the southern port of Odesa killed at least 10 people and wounded over 40.

President Zelensky said that the series of aerial strikes proved that Putin wasn’t interested in ending the war.

“Each new attack by Russia only confirms Putin’s true intentions. He wants the war to continue.  Talks about peace are not interesting to him.  We must force Russia to a just peace by force,” said the Ukrainian leader.

--Ukraine then fired six U.S.-made ATACMS missiles at the Bryansk region, Russia’s Defense Ministry said Tuesday, the 1,000th day of the war.

Ukraine claimed it hit a military weapons depot in Bryansk in the middle of the night, near the town of Karachev, around 70 miles from the border, though it didn’t specify what weapons it used.  The Ukrainian General Staff said that multiple explosions and detonations were heard in the targeted area.

The Russian Defense Ministry said the military shot down five ATACMS, and damaged one more.

The fragments fell on the territory of an unspecified military facility, the ministry said, adding there were no casualties.

--Vladimir Putin signed a decree, Tuesday, allowing Russia to launch nuclear weapons in the event of a massive conventional attack on its soil. The warning came after Ukraine carried out the ATACMS strike.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov sought to calm worries about a nuclear escalation, even as he accused the West of escalating the conflict. “We are strongly in favor of doing everything not to allow nuclear war to happen,” he said at the G-20.  “A nuclear weapon is first and foremost a weapon to prevent any nuclear war.”

But Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, who spoke with Putin last month, warned that if Moscow is threatened “he won’t hesitate for a second – he will use nuclear weapons.”

--Bloomberg reported Wednesday that Ukraine’s military used British-supplied cruise missiles to strike targets inside Russia for the first time, citing parts of the Storm Shadow missiles that were allegedly spotted in Russia’s Kursk region this week.  If confirmed, the action follows Ukraine’s use of the ATACMS.

--Russia is making gains in Donetsk region, although its losses are staggering: at least 1,700 dead and wounded each day.  Russia seems intent on taking as much territory as possible before Donald Trump becomes president and perhaps tries to bully the protagonists into a ceasefire.

In addition to now allowing ATACMS to strike targets well inside Russia, the Biden administration will also finally provide Ukraine with antipersonnel land mines to blunt the advance of Russian troops.

The U.S.-provided mines are “non-persistent,” becoming inert after a pre-set period of time that can last from a few hours to two weeks, an official said.

Data from the Institute for the Study of War shows that Russia has gained almost six times as much territory in 2024 as it did in 2023, and is advancing towards key Ukrainian logistical hubs in the eastern Donbas region.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk region is faltering.  Experts have questioned the success of the offensive, with one calling it a “strategic catastrophe” given manpower shortages faced by Ukraine.

“The current situation offers Putin a significant temptation to escalate,” Tatyana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, said in a post on X.  Such a move would allow both Putin and Trump to blame Biden for the spiraling conflict and serve as a premise for direct talks, she said.

“This marks an extraordinarily dangerous juncture,” she added, since Putin may be trying to convince Western leaders they have to choose between a nuclear conflict or a settlement on Russia’s terms.

--Thursday, Russia then launched an intercontinental ballistic missile at the central Ukrainian city of Dnipro, according to Ukraine’s Air Force command, in what would be another major escalation of hostilities in the war.  [The U.S. said it was an intermediate-range missile.]

The strike appears to be the first reported use of an ICBM, which is designed to hit targets thousands of kilometers / miles away, since Russia invaded Ukraine in Feb. 2022.  Russia didn’t immediately comment on the reported launch.

There were only two injuries on the ground, according to local officials.  An industrial facility was damaged.

Explosions were also heard in the central city of Kryvyi Rih, with Ukraine’s Air force saying six of seven Kh-101 cruise missiles were downed during the attack.  Twenty-six people were wounded, according to a regional official.  At least five multistory residential buildings were hit.

But then Thursday afternoon Vladimir Putin announced that Moscow had tested a new intermediate-range missile (“Oreshnik”)*, and warned Russia could use the weapon against countries that have allowed Kyiv to use their missiles to strike Russia.

Putin declared that Russia would issue advance warnings (Moscow warned the U.S. so as not to confuse it with a nuke) if it launches more strikes with this missile against Ukraine to allow civilians to evacuate to safety.  He warned that U.S. air defense systems wouldn’t be capable of intercepting the missile.

President Zelensky said: “Today, our crazy neighbor once again showed what he really is. And how afraid he is.”

*More on Oreshnik next week as I study up on it.  It’s disconcerting.

--Germany and Finland said they were “deeply concerned” after an undersea cable linking the countries was severed.

The rupture of the 730-mile long telecommunications cable – which is being investigated – comes at a time of heightened tension with Russia.

The two countries’ foreign ministers said in a joint statement: “Our European security is not only under threat from Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, but also from hybrid warfare by malicious actors.”

Separately, a 135-mile internet link between Lithuania and Sweden’s Gotland Island also lost service on Sunday, a Swedish telecommunications company said.

In October 2023 a natural gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia was severely damaged. Finland officials later said the incident had been caused by a Chinese container ship dragging its anchor.

The fiberoptic cable linking the Finnish capital, Helsinki, and the German city of Rostock, stopped working early Monday morning, local time.  Finland said all fiber connections in it had been cut.  But internet traffic between the two countries wasn’t impacted as other cable routes were available.

But the Danish military said midweek it was staying near a Chinese ship that may be linked to the damaged data cables.

The bulk carrier, Yi Peng 3, was in the vicinity of both cables when they were damaged, as data compiled by Bloomberg shows.  It has been anchored in the northern part of the Danish straits since Tuesday, with Danish Navy ships close by.  This is noteworthy given the Oct. 2023 incident.

--According to satellite imagery analysis from the Open Source Center, a research group based in the UK, Russia is estimated to have supplied North Korea with more than a million barrels of oil since March this year.  The oil is payment for the weapons and troops Pyongyang has sent Mosocw.

The transfer violate UN sanctions, which ban countries from selling oil to North Korea, except in small quantities, in an attempt to stifle its economy to prevent it from further developing nuclear weapons. 

The satellite imagery, which was shared exclusively with the BBC, shows more than a dozen different North Korean oil tankers arriving at a terminal in Russia’s Far East a total of 43 times over the past eight months.

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Israel-Hezbollah

--An airstrike killed five people in central Beirut Monday evening, while rockets fired from Lebanon killed one person in northern Israel and caused several injuries in a Tel Aviv suburb, amid a continuing U.S. push for a cease-fire deal.

The strike in Beirut hit a residential district around a quarter mile from the Lebanese government palace, and wounded 24 people, according to the Lebanese health ministry.  It was the third strike on the Lebanese capital in two days, and the first strike in central Beirut since Oct. 10, when 22 people were killed in two locations.

Two separate strikes on Sunday also hit central districts in Beirut, killing Hezbollah’s main spokesman and several other people.  Israel’s military took responsibility for the strike that killed the spokesman, calling him the group’s “chief propagandist.”

Israel has mostly focused its bombing in the Beirut area on the southern suburbs (Dahiyeh) where Hezbollah has had a heavy presence.  Israel is targeting weapons caches, command centers and personnel in those suburbs.

But northern and central Israel were targeted by rockets and missiles from Lebanon, Israeli authorities said.

Over a hundred rockets were launched at northern Israel, with one hitting a building in Shfar’am, killing one person and injuring 10 others.

--A large convoy of trucks carrying aid was “violently looted” in the Gaza Strip over the weekend and its drivers forced at gunpoint to unload supplies, the main United Nations agency that helps Palestinians said on Monday, calling it one of the worst such incidents of the war.

The agency, known as UNRWA, said in a statement on Monday that the convoy of 109 trucks had been driving from the Kerem Shalom border crossing in southern Gaza when it was looted on Saturday.  Most of the trucks were lost, some of the drivers were reportedly shot, and some vehicles sustained extensive damage, the agency said.

Only 11 trucks made it to their destination, said a UNRWA spokeswoman in Gaza.  Attackers shot the trucks’ tires out in order to stop and loot some of the vehicles, she said, and the agency is still waiting to hear how many casualties there were.

Separately, the UN said this week that Palestinians are “facing diminishing conditions for survival” in parts of northern Gaza under siege because virtually no aid has been delivered in 40 days.

The UN said all its attempts to support the estimated 65,000 to 75,000 people in Beit Hanoun, Beit Lahia and Jabalia this month had been denied or impeded, forcing bakeries and kitchens to shut down.

Earlier in the month, the UN said there was a strong likelihood that famine was imminent in northern Gaza.

During Israel’s six-week-long offensive targeting regrouping Hamas fighters, hundreds of people have been killed and between 100,000 and 130,000 others have been displaced to Gaza City, where the UN has said essential resources like shelter, water and healthcare are severely limited.

--Israeli airstrikes early in the week pummeled two areas in central Gaza and a town in the north, killing at least 34 people, according to local rescue and emergency services.

Further strikes on northern Gaza and Gaza City on Thursday killed scores.

--Thursday, the International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for Prime Minister Netanyahu and his former defense minister, Yoav Gallant, for war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza, dealing an extraordinary blow to Israel’s global standing as it presses on with wars on multiple fronts.

The court also issued a warrant for the arrest of Muhammad Deif, Hamas’ military chief, for crimes against humanity, including murder, hostage taking and sexual violence.  Israel has said that it killed Deif in an airstrike, but the court said it could not determine whether he was dead.

Netanyahu’s office swiftly rejected what it called “absurd and false accusations,” insisting that Israel would keep defending its citizens by fighting in Gaza.  The Israeli leader “will not surrender to the pressures; he will not recoil or withdraw until all of the war’s goals – that were set at the start of the battle – are achieved,” the office said in a statement.

Netanyahu is thus in the same lineup as Vladimir Putin, the target of an arrest warrant issued last year.  Netanyahu and Gallant would face the risk of arrest should they travel to one of the court’s 124 member nations, including most European countries, though not the United States.

President Biden called the ICC’s arrest warrant for the prime minister “outrageous.”

“Whatever the ICC might imply, there is no equivalence – none – between Israel and Hamas,” Biden said in a statement.  “We will always stand with Israel against threats to its security.”

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Wall Street and the Economy

The market is still dealing with the potential impacts of a second Trump term, with his proposed policies being viewed as more inflationary due to his campaign promises of high tariffs on imported goods, tax cuts, and curbs on immigration.  Those policies could further pressure an already bloated federal deficit, complicating the Federal Reserve’s path forward for interest rates.

Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, wrote in a recent note to clients: “The biggest risk is a large across-the-board tariff, which would likely hit growth hard.”

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, a permanent voting member on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Wednesday expressed discomfort with the U.S. central bank cutting interest rates while inflation continues to run above the Fed’s 2% goal.

“It’s concerning to me that we’re recalibrating policy, but we haven’t yet achieved our inflation goal,” Bowman said at an event in Florida.

Asked about the effect of changes to immigration policy on inflation and low-wage labor, Bowman urged a patient and cautious approach.

As Reuters reported: “Noting that her family’s bank in Kansas primarily serves ranchers and farmers, she said it’s very difficult to find people to work in agricultural jobs.  ‘We need people to work across the country and we need policies that will facilitate that,’ she said.”

Next week we have the Fed’s preferred inflation barometer, the personal consumption expenditures index, or PCE.  That, along with another CPI and jobs report, will largely determine the Fed’s next move at its Dec. 17-18 confab.

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“Donald Trump’s cabinet nominees so far reveal a desire to disrupt Washington, and disruption is needed in many places.  But as he mulls his choices for Treasury and the economic-policy posts, the question markets will ask is whether he will disrupt the policy mix that was successful in his first term.

“The voter election surveys make clear that Mr. Trump won his second term above all else on the economy.  Voters rejected the results of Bidenomics, especially inflation and a decline in real incomes. They recalled the strong investment and job market and rising wages across all income levels of the pre-Covid economy.  Mr. Trump’s second term success or failure will depend on restoring those results.

“That’s the hope behind the market’s bullish initial response to Mr. Trump’s re-election.  Investors anticipate a return of animal spirits as the pall of Democratic tax increases and regulatory coercion is lifted.  But economic and financial risks remain, and they’ll require careful judgment, not blow-it-all-up rhetoric.

“That’s why it’s strange to hear Elon Musk lobby Mr. Trump that the next Treasury secretary shouldn’t be someone who favors ‘business as usual.’  What he means by that isn’t clear beyond favoring one personality over another, and Mr. Musk may not know. Fiscal and monetary policy aren’t his specialty....

“Unlike other policy positions, the Treasury Secretary needs an understanding of financial markets, which nowadays are global.  A blowup in the foreign-exchange markets somewhere can affect the U.S. economy, and new financial investments like crypto need careful watching. Mr. Trump has promised to ease political control over these markets, but no one should think they are risk free.  Blowups somewhere are inevitable, and a Treasury secretary needs the experience to deal with the fallout in a way that reassures markets.”

Just a little economic data this week, with October housing starts in line, 1.31 million annualized pace, and October existing home sales up 3.4% month-over-month to 3.96 million, up 2.9% year-over-year.  The median existing home price of $407,200 was up 4% Y/Y.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow barometer for fourth-quarter growth is at 2.6%.

Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 6.84%, up six basis points.

Europe and Asia

--We had flash November PMIs for the eurozone, courtesy of S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank, with the composite reading at 48.1 vs. 50.0 in October, a 10-month low. [50 the dividing line between growth and contraction.]

Manufacturing is at 45.1, services 49.2, another 10-month low.

This was kind of a shock, or, as Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at HCB put it:

“Things could hardly have turned out much worse. The eurozone’s manufacturing sector is sinking deeper into recession, and now the services sector is starting to struggle after two months of marginal growth.  It is no surprise really, given the political mess in the eurozone economies lately – France’s government is on shaky ground, and Germany’s heading for early elections. Throw in the election of Donald Trump as U.S. president, and it is no wonder the economy is facing challenges.  Businesses are just navigating by sight.”

Germany: manufacturing 43.2, services 49.4 (9-mo. low)
France: manufacturing 40.7 (11-mo. low), services 45.7 (10-mo. low) ...yuck

UK: manufacturing 49.3 (9-mo. low), services 50.0 (13-mo. low).

--Eurostat released the October inflation data for the euro area, 2.0%, up from 1.7% in September. A year earlier, the rate was 2.9%.  Ex-food and energy, inflation is 2.7%, same as September.  The core rate was 5.0% last year.

Headline inflation:

Germany 2.4%, France 1.6%, Italy 1.0%, Spain 1.8%, Netherlands 3.3%, Ireland 0.1%.

Britain’s inflation rate rose faster than expected, to 2.3% year-over-year in October, up from 1.7% in September. Energy prices helped drive the increase. The figures will influence the Bank of England’s interest-rate decision next month.  The bank lowered rates by a quarter point in November, to 4.75%, but said it favored a “gradual” approach towards further cuts.

Germany: Defense minister Boris Pistorius took himself out of contention to become the country’s next leader, clearing the way for Chancellor Scholz to seek a second term in an early election slated for Feb. 23.

As I noted last week, there were calls inside the center-left Social Democrats’ leadership to have Pistorius replace Scholz as the party’s candidate, Pistorius a widely popular figure in the country.

Turning to Asia...no significant economic data out of China this week.  But the National Bureau of Statistics did release that the youth unemployment rate for the 16-24 age group, excluding students, stood at 17.1 percent in October.  The rate hit 18.8 percent in August.

It’s a serious issue for the government.  A record high of 12.22 million students will graduate from universities in China next year, adding to the employment pressures as opportunities are not growing at the same pace as the economy transforms, increasing anxiety for the young generation. [South China Morning Post]

Japan had a bunch of data.  October exports rose 3.1% year-over-year, better than expected, imports up just 0.4%.

October inflation came in at 2.3%, ditto ex-food and energy.  The headline number was down from 2.5% in September, but core was up from 2.1%.

November’s flash PMI readings had manufacturing at 49.0, services 50.2.

Street Bytes

--Stocks resumed their post-election rally, with the major averages close to new highs as we ended the week.  And....the Dow Jones is at a record!  Barely...up 2% to 44296, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each rose 1.7%, both just shy of their all-time marks.

More retail earnings next week. 

--U.S. Treasury Yields

6-mo. 4.49%  2-yr. 4.37%  10-yr. 4.41%  30-yr. 4.59%

There was a brief flight to safety Tuesday morning as Vladimir Putin ratcheted up the nuclear weapons talk, the yield on the 10-year falling to 4.33%.  But by the end of the week, Treasuries were basically unchanged, except the 2-year yield rose 7 bps.

Next week it’s all about the PCE.

Foreign holdings of U.S. government debt rose to a record level in September, the latest Treasury Department data showed on Monday.  It’s a signal that demand for Treasuries remains robust.

Total foreign ownership of Treasuries rose to $8.6729 trillion in September from $8.5034 trillion in August.  It was the highest level on record and marks the fifth consecutive monthly rise.  Countries such as the United Kingdom, Canada, France, and India bought more U.S. debt, making up for Japan and China, the world’s top two biggest holders of Treasuries, who trimmed their ownership.

The news comes as conversations on the fiscal deficit have taken center stage since the election of Donald Trump, with concerns Treasury may have to raise substantially more money by issuing debt to pay for some of his proposed plans.  But for now, it seems this won’t be a problem.

--U.S. natural gas prices soared this week to a yearly high, as forecasts of colder weather lifted the outlook on heating demand and expedited expectations on the start of storage withdrawing season.

But then they fell hard today after the Energy Information Administration said there would be ample supplies next year as U.S. drillers raise their output.

--The market was awaiting Nvidia Corp.’s earnings after the close Wednesday, and the company assured investors that its new product lineup can maintain the company’s artificial intelligence-fueled growth run, though the rush to get the chips out the door is proving more costly than expected.

Speaking after the release, CEO Jensen Huang said that Nvidia’s highly anticipated Blackwell products will ship this quarter amid “very strong” demand.  But the production and engineering costs of the chip will weigh on profit margins, and Nvidia’s sales forecast for the current period didn’t match some of Wall Street’s more optimistic projections.

The shares initially fell in the after-market on this last issue, but at the end of trading on Thursday were up about $1.

Nvidia predicted fiscal fourth-quarter sales of about $37.5 billion. While the average analyst estimate was $37.1 billion, projections ranged as high as $41 billion.

Huang said that Blackwell is now in “full production,” and there’s still an appetite for Hopper, the previous design.  “Blackwell is now in the hands of all of our major partners,” Huang during the conference call with analysts.

For the fiscal third quarter, Nvidia’s revenue rose 94% to $35.1 billion, which ended Oct. 27.  Adjusted earnings were 81 cents per share, with analysts at sales of $33.25 billion and EPS of 74 cents.

Nonetheless, the 94% rise was the first time in five quarters that Nvidia’s growth rate hasn’t cracked triple digits.  And the company projected revenue will grow 70% year-over-year in the current period. 

Nvidia’s biggest division, the data center unit, saw revenue double from a year earlier to $30.8 billion, which beat consensus.

But networking revenue within that unit declined sequentially, and the business is more dependent than ever on a small group of customers: cloud service providers.  That cohort, which includes companies such as Microsoft and Amazon’s AWS, accounted for 50% of data center revenue, up from 45% in the prior period.

Investors want that number to go down, to show that the use of AI is spreading across the economy.

Nvidia has only missed analysts’ estimates on quarterly revenue once in the past five years, and it has exceeded expectations by as much as 20% in recent periods, creating a high bar for its performance.

Huang has been traveling the world lobbying for a broader adoption of his technology and trying to spread its use by corporations and government agencies.

“The age of AI is upon us and it’s large and diverse,” Huang said.

--Walmart reported third-quarter earnings and raised fiscal-year guidance.  The giant retailer said adjusted earnings for the quarter ended in October were 58 cents, ahead of expectations for 53 cents.

Revenue increased 5.5% to $169.9 billion, beating the Street’s outlook for $167.7 billion.  In the U.S., Walmart saw strong demand across merchandise categories. The company also continues to see market share gains from higher-income households.

“We had a strong quarter, continuing our momentum,” said CEO Doug McMillon.

Walmart raised its guidance for the fiscal year ending in January.  Net sales will now rise between 4.8% to 5.1% compared to the prior year.  Past guidance saw sales growing between 3.75% and 4.75% in constant currency.  Adjusted earnings per share will range from $2.42 to $2.47, up from the prior range of $2.35 to $2.43.  The Street called for sales to rise by 4.6% and for $2.45 in EPS.

Given that the holiday season is well underway, investors have been keen to hear what the company has to say about shopping patterns, and Tuesday’s earnings and guidance are cause for optimism that the consumer will continue to spend at a healthy clip.  Investors generally have been looking for a “good, not great” holiday season.

CFO John Rainey said on a call with analysts that most shoppers are spending consistently to enjoy the holidays. Toys are selling well, along with some everyday needs such as tires, he said. Apparel is weaker as unseasonably warm weather has likely delayed some purchases, he said.

“Overall, we are feeling good about the holidays,” Rainey said. But “consumers are still discerning.  They are spending more on food than they have historically.”  That means overall sales of nonfood items are still growing slower than spending on consumables,” he said.

--Lowe’s Cos. forecast a slower-than-expected drop in annual comparable sales on Tuesday, banking on a boost to its current-quarter sales from hurricane-related demand (a la Home Depot last week), although big-ticket spending remained strained.

The home improvement retailer also beat third-quarter comp sales and profit estimates, similar to bigger rival HD, which last week noted higher demand for building materials and paints amid the hurricane rebuilding efforts.

Lowe’s, which generates roughly 75% of sales from the do-it-yourself category, has witnessed persistent weakness as higher interest rates over the last few years made projects requiring financing less appealing.

The company reported a 1.1% drop in same-store sales for the quarter ended Nov. 1, better than the Street’s average estimate of a 2.9% decline.

Lowe’s earned $2.89 per share on an adjusted basis, beating consensus of $2.82.

The company expects same-store sales to be down between 3% and 3.5% in 2024, from its prior forecast of a decline in the range of 3.5% to 4%.

Both Walmart and Lowe’s warned there is trouble ahead if President-elect Trump goes ahead with proposals for a 60% tax on goods from China and 10%-20% levies on all other imports.

--Wednesday, Target Corp. shares plunged 20% after the retailer trimmed its full-year earnings outlook, warning that a flat sales quarter and a buildup in inventory hurt profitability.

Company executives said U.S. consumers spent less on nonessential items such as clothes and home products – a weaker third-quarter picture than the one provided by Walmart.

Profit also took a hit after the company stockpiled more products in preparation for the U.S. port strike last month.  Holding the additional inventory was more expensive than the company expected, eroding earnings.

Target’s CEO Brian Cornell tried to downplay the negative results in a call with reporters, noting that issues like the port strike were a one-time problem and that the company’s early read on holiday sales were positive.

Comparable sales grew 0.3% for the quarter through early November (down 1.9% at physical locations, up 11% for digital sales), worse than the average analyst estimate. 

Target’s revenue rose 1.1% to $25.7 billion, falling just shy of expectations for $25.9 billion. The retailer posted earnings of $1.85, well below consensus of $2.30.  Fourth-quarter earnings will range between $1.85 and $2.45, compared with analysts’ forecasts for $2.65.

The company now sees earnings per share for the full year in a range of $8.30 to $8.90, down from the previous range of $9 and $9.70, and the Street’s $9.56.

So just really lousy stuff.

--As expected, Spirit Airlines has filed for bankruptcy protection. Spirit entered into an agreement with its bondholders that is expected to reduce total debt and provide increased financial flexibility.

The airline, as part of the prearranged Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, has received commitment for a $350 million equity investment from existing bondholders.

Existing bondholders are also providing $300 million in other financing, which, together with available cash, is expected to support the airline through the Chapter 11 process.

The carrier said it expects to continue its flight operations through the proceedings and customers can book and fly without interruption.

Spirit is being delisted from the New York Stock Exchange in the near term.  It hopes to emerge from Chapter 11 in the first quarter of 2025.

--Boeing has begun its major round of layoffs as part of plans to cut 17,000 jobs globally, or 10% of its workforce.  Monday, the company announced it will lay off more than 2,500 workers in Washington, Oregon, South Carolina and Missouri, according to federally required filings.  Nearly 2,200 layoff notices went to workers in Washington and another 220 in South Carolina, the two states where Boeing builds commercial airliners.

--TSA checkpoint numbers vs. 2023

11/21...165 percent of 2023 levels...yes, 165
11/20...76
11/19...71
11/18...97
11/17...102
11/16...82
11/15...98
11/14...100

Numbers are erratic due to comparison with the Thanksgiving 2023 period, the holiday Nov. 23 last year vs. Nov. 28 this year.  Ergo, next week’s numbers should dwarf 2023’s.

AAA expects 5.84 million people to fly domestically (up 2% over last year), out of a total of 79.9 million people who are expected to travel 50 miles or more from home from the Tuesday before Thanksgiving through the Monday after.

Nearly all of those holiday travelers – an estimated 90% - will travel by car.  This year’s overall estimate is 2.1% higher than the 78.2 million AAA projected to travel over the five-day holiday in 2023. Drivers will see gas prices at the lowest level since 2021.

International flight reservations are up 23%, partly because ticket prices are down 5%.

--Monday, from a Bloomberg report by Leah Nylen and Josh Sisco: “Top Justice Department antitrust officials have decided to ask a judge to force Alphabet Inc.’s Google to sell off its Chrome browser in what would be a historic crackdown on one of the world’s biggest tech companies.

“The department will ask the judge, who ruled in August that Google illegally monopolized the search market, to require measures related to artificial intelligence and its Android smartphone operating system, according to people familiar with the plans.”

Late Wednesday, the DOJ then said in its proposed final judgement: “Google must promptly and fully divest Chrome, to a buyer approved by the Plaintiffs in their sole discretion, subject to terms that the Court and Plaintiffs approve.”

In response to the filing, Kent Walker, Google’s president of global affairs and chief legal officer, said in a statement that the Justice Department’s proposal was “staggering” and “unprecedented government overreach.”

Walker said Google would file its own proposals next month, and make its broader case next year.

Judge Amit P. Mehta of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia ruled in August that Google’s search business was an illegal monopoly.  Mehta will decide by next summer what remedies to impose on Google to restore competition in the market.  But then it could be years after Mehta’s decision before anything really happens, given the appeals process.  Plus, Chrome is a small part of Google’s overall business.  Thus, the reason why Google (Alphabet) shares hardly reacted, initially, though by day’s end, Thursday, the stock was down over 4%.

--T-Mobile’s network was among the systems hacked in a damaging Chinese cyber-espionage operation that successfully gained entry into multiple U.S. and international telecommunications companies, according to people familiar with the matter.

Hackers linked to a Chinese intelligence agency were able to breach T-Mobile as part of a monthslong campaign to spy on the cellphone communications of high-value intelligence targets.  It is unclear what information, if any, was taken about T-Mobile customers’ calls and communications records.

The compromise of T-Mobile expands the list of known victims of a cyber-espionage campaign by Chinese hackers – dubbed Salt Typhoon – that some U.S. officials consider to be historic and catastrophic in scope and severity.  The Wall Street Journal previously reported in October that AT&T, Verizon and Lumen Technologies were among the telecom companies that suffered an intrusion.

Attackers were able to access cellphone lines used by an array of senior national security and policy officials across the U.S. government, in addition to politicians. The access allowed them to scoop up call logs, unencrypted texts and some audio from targets, in what investigators believe may have significant national-security ramifications.

The Biden administration acknowledged in a recent statement some details about the nature of the “broad and significant” hack that were previously reported by the Journal.

--Deere & Co. forecast lower-than-expected 2025 profit on Thursday, as sagging farm incomes and inflationary pressures affect demand for the company’s tractors and other agricultural equipment.

U.S. farm income is expected to fall for a second consecutive year in 2024, as farmers grapple with corn and soybean prices hovering near four-year lows.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates this year’s net farm income, a broad measure of profitability in the agriculture economy, to hit $140 billion, down 4.4% or $6.5 billion from a year earlier.

“Amid significant market challenges this year, we proactively adjusted our business operations to better align with the current environment,” CEO John May said.

The world’s largest farm-equipment maker expects profit for fiscal year 2025 in the range of $5 to $5.5 billion, compared with analysts’ average estimate of $5.93bn.

For 2025, Deere expects net sales to fall about 10% to 15% across all its machinery segments.

The company reported a net income of $1.25 billion for the fiscal fourth quarter, or $4.55 per share, compared with $2.37 billion, or $8.26 per share, a year earlier.

Worldwide net sales and revenue fell 28% to $11.14bn, but this beat consensus of $10.68 billion, while the net income figure also beat the Street’s $1.05bn.

And so the shares rose 7%.  Then again, Deere was up only 1% for the year heading into Thursday.

--Ford Motor Co. says it will reduce its workforce by 4,000 in Europe and the UK by the end of 2027, citing headwinds from the economy and pressure from increased competition and weaker than expected sales of electric cars.

Ford said Wednesday most of the job cuts would come in Germany and would be carried out in consultation with employee representatives.

The company said that “the global auto industry continues to be in a period of significant disruption as it shifts to electrified mobility.”

“The transformation is particularly intense in Europe where automakers face significant competitive and economic headwinds while also tackling a misalignment between CO2 regulations and consumer demand for electrified vehicles,” the statement said.

European automakers must sell enough electric vehicles to meet new, lower limits for fleet average carbon dioxide emissions in 2025. EV sales have lagged as consumers weary of inflation have held back on spending and after major car market Germany dropped government purchase incentives for EVs.

--Advance Auto Parts plans to close hundreds of stores, four distribution centers and slash jobs amid the sluggish demand for vehicle parts, the company said this week.

The announcement came with the release of the company’s third-quarter report, that showed an adjusted loss of 4 cents per share, compared to a loss of $1.19 one year ago.

--SEC Chair Gary Gensler, who was aggressive in his oversight of cryptocurrencies and other financial markets, announced he would step down from his post on Jan. 20.  President-elect Trump had promised during the campaign to remove him.

Gensler described the rise of cryptocurrencies in a 2021 speech as “the Wild West.”

“This asset class is rife with fraud, scams, and abuse in certain applications,” he said in a speech at the Aspen Security Forum.

--Jersey Mike’s is being acquired by investment management company Blackstone for about $8 billion, including the company’s debt.

The deal is “intended to help enable Jersey Mike’s to accelerate its expansion across and beyond the U.S. market,” the companies said, as well as aid ongoing technological investments.  The acquisition is expected to close in early 2025.

Blackstone and Jersey Mike’s did not immediately disclose financial terms in their Tuesday announcement.

Jersey Mike’s roots date back to 1956, with a Point Pleasant, N.J., storefront location that was originally called Mike’s Subs.  Peter Cancro, then a 17-year-old high school senior who had worked there since he was 14, bought the operation in 1975 with the help of his football coach.

Cancro, now the CEO, will keep leading the fast-growing business and keep a “significant” equity stake in the chain, the companies said.

“We believe we are still in the early innings of Jersey Mike’s growth story and that Blackstone is the right partner to help us reach even greater heights,” Cancro said in a statement.

The chain has expanded rapidly over the last decade and the number of locations has more than tripled since 2014, according to restaurant consulting company Technomic.

There are more than 3,000 Jersey Mike’s locations nationwide.

It’s a quality product.

Rival Subway agreed last year to be sold to private-equity firm Roark Capital for $9.6 billion.

--More than a dozen brands of bags of organic whole and baby carrots have been recalled for a potential E. coli contamination.

California-based Grimmway Farms is at the center of the ongoing recall, issued Saturday, according to the CDC, who said the outbreak has affected 18 states across the country.

As of Monday, 39 cases were identified, 15 hospitalizations and one death.

The carrots can be found in scores of different stores, and under different labels.

--At least 15 people in Minnesota have been sickened by E. coli poisoning tied to a national recall of more than 167,000 pounds of potentially tainted ground beef, federal health officials said.

Detroit-based Wolverine Packing Co. recalled the meat this week after Minnesota state agriculture officials sounded the alarm.

To date, no illnesses have been reported outside of Minnesota, according to the Agriculture Department.

--I liked this opening of a piece on Starbucks’ many issues by the New York Times’ Julie Creswell: “For 32 years, Greg Tutunjian, 73, has picked up his coffee at Starbucks. He’s partial to its dark-roast Red Eye, but starting to question his loyalty to the chain that serves it up.

“While waiting for his order, Mr. Tutunjian watches impatiently as baristas whip up Iced Brown Sugar Oatmilk Shaken Espressos or other foamy, iced, caramel-topped drinks for drive-through or mobile-app orders.  Minutes tick by before he is finally handed his coffee (dark-roast coffee with a shot of espresso).

“Even more annoying for Mr. Tutunjian is when Starbucks’ mobile app tells him that a bag of his favorite coffee beans – Komodo Dragon – is in stock when it isn’t.”

Yup, the kinds of problems new CEO Brian Niccol has to deal with.

--SpaceX tested its huge Starship rocket launch system for the sixth time on Tuesday evening, Donald Trump and various politicos in his orbit were in attendance along with Elon Musk.

The sixth test of the monster rocket will teach SpaceX a lot, but one missed object disappointed the audience.

The launch, from SpaceX’s Starbase facility in Boca Chica, Texas, happened just after 5 p.m. Eastern time.

SpaceX pioneered reusable rockets, dramatically lowering the cost of reaching space, but currently, the company only reuses lower-stage boosters.  Reusing the upper stage, along with Starship’s huge size, will drive costs to reach space down even further.

Tuesday’s test was designed to “expand the envelope on ship and booster capabilities and get us closer to bringing reuse of the entire system online,” SpaceX said.

One objective, have “Mechazilla,” as SpaceX refers to the system – catch the booster stage again. 

SpaceX’s fifth test of Starship took watchers’ breath away as the launch tower grabbed the lower stage of the rocket in midair.

But this time, the lower-stage booster was “no go” for the catch and SpaceX sent it out to sea since everything wasn’t perfect.  It did come down very beautifully into the Gulf, before catching fire.

--Archegos Capital Management founder Bill Hwang was sentenced to 18 years in prison on Wednesday after he was found guilty of manipulating stock prices and defrauding banks as part of a scheme that led to the biggest single-firm meltdown since the financial crisis.

Archegos’ fall shook Wall Street in spring of 2021 when Hwang’s highly concentrated bets went south.  Using borrowed money and derivatives that masked the firm’s colossal exposure, Archegos had invested in the same small group of stocks at several banks.

The losses spread across the banks that held the investments for the firm, including Morgan Stanley, UBS, Credit Suisse and Nomura.  The firm’s collapse wiped out $100 billion in market value, according to prosecutors.  Credit Suisse’s $5 billion hit, alongside several other financial scandals, contributed to the bank’s eventual forced sale to rival UBS in 2023.

The lenders said they were unaware of the trades Archegos was making at other banks.

--Around 70 people on a month-long cruise from Singapore to Los Angeles were stricken with norovirus when an outbreak swept through the massive cruise liner.

Of the 1,822 passengers onboard the Coral Princess, 55 came down with the misery-inducing illness – while 15 of the 907 crew also got sick, according to the CDC.

Most suffered “diarrhea and vomiting,” the CDC said. 

--And legendary New York City TV anchor Chuck Scarborough announced he is leaving WNBC after 50 years.

Scarborough, 81, is the longest serving anchor in New York’s history.  His last broadcast will be on Dec. 12.

Personally, WNBC has always been my local news of choice and Chuck will be missed.

Foreign Affairs, Part II

China: President Xi Jinping has pledged to work with incoming President Trump in his final meeting with President Joe Biden.

The two met last Saturday on the sidelines of the annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Peru where they acknowledged “ups and downs” in relations over Biden’s four years in office.

But both highlighted progress in lowering tensions on issues such as trade and Taiwan.

Analysts say U.S.-China relations could become more volatile when Trump returns to office in two months, driven by factors including a promise to raise tariffs on Chinese imports.

The president-elect has pledged 60% tariffs on all imports from China. He has also appointed prominent China hawks to top foreign and defense positions.

During his first term, Trump labelled China a “strategic competitor.”  Relations worsened when the former president labelled Covid a “Chinese virus” during the pandemic.

Speaking on Saturday, Xi said, “China is ready to work with the new U.S. administration to maintain communication, expand cooperation and manage differences.”

But Xi outlined Beijing’s core stance, expectations and “guardrails” the Chinese leadership has mapped out for relations between the two powers.

He said that “democracy and human rights” and “China’s path and system” were two of the “red lines” that “must not be challenged.”  A stern warning to Biden, clearly intended for Donald Trump’s incoming administration.

Biden said strategic competition between the two global powers should not escalate into war.

“Our two countries cannot let any of this competition veer into conflict. That is our responsibility and over the last four years I think we’ve proven it’s possible to have this relationship,” he said.

Meanwhile, dozens of prominent activists were sentenced to up to 10 years in prison on Tuesday in Hong Kong’s biggest national security case under a sweeping law imposed by Beijing that crushed a once-thriving pro-democracy movement.

The defendants were prosecuted in 2021 for their roles in an unofficial primary election under the 2020 national security law. They were accused of attempting to paralyze Hong Kong’s government and force the city’s leader to resign by aiming to win a legislative majority and using it to block government budgets indiscriminately.

The 45 convicted received prison terms ranging from four years and two months to 10 years. Legal scholar Benny Tai was given the longest sentence.

They either pleaded guilty to or were found guilty of conspiracy to commit subversion by three government-appointed judges.  The judges said in the verdict that the activists’ plans to effect change through the election would have undermined the government’s authority and created a constitutional crisis.  Two of the 47 original defendants were acquitted.

Separately, Hong Kong’s most famous prisoner, Jimmy Lai, testified for the first time in his landmark national security trial, saying he had never tried to influence the foreign policy of other countries, such as the U.S., towards China and Hong Kong.

Lai, the 76-year-old former media mogul, is charged with sedition and colluding with foreign forces.  He has been kept in solitary confinement for nearly four years, and said his newspapers always supported “movements for freedom.”

“The core values of Apple Daily are actually the core values of the people of Hong Kong...rule of law, freedom, pursuit of democracy, freedom of speech, freedom of religion, freedom of assembly,” he said, according to a transcript of the trial.

As the Wall Street Journal opined:

“President-elect Trump is committed to freeing Mr. Lai.  UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer also raised the mistreatment of Mr. Lai, a British citizen, this week with Mr. Xi during the G-20 summit in Brazil.  Officials in Hong Kong and Beijing may stomp their feet, but until Mr. Lai and others are set free, the world is going to make it more difficult for business as usual with either.”

Lastly, in another horrific random attack, eight people died and 17 others were injured following a stabbing incident outside a school in eastern China on Sunday.

A 21-year-old man was arrested at a vocational and technical college in the city of Wuxi, according to a statement from local police.

The statement said he graduated from the school in 2024 and carried out the attack after “failing to obtain his diploma due to poor exam results” and that he was unhappy with his internship pay.

Iran: Tehran sharply increased its stockpile of nearly weapons-grade uranium amid its confrontation with Israel, according to the United Nations atomic-energy agency, in a challenge for the incoming Trump administration.

Iran’s decision to expand its stockpile of nuclear fuel and its failure to fully cooperate with the international Atomic Energy Agency, the IAEA, which monitor’s Iran’s work, is set to trigger fresh diplomatic pressure from Europe.

Concerns are growing in Western capitals that Iran could decide to develop a nuclear weapon, after comments by senior Iranian officials that Tehran has mastered most of the techniques for doing so.  With Hezbollah suffering huge losses at the hands of Israel, there is also a growing debate in Tehran about whether the country’s best form of deterrence lies in having the bomb.

Brazil: Police accused Jair Bolsonaro and 36 others of attempting a coup after the presidential election in 2022.  Brazil’s prosecutor-general must now decide whether to take the case to trial.  The charges stem from Bolsonaro’s alleged attempt to retain power after losing to Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, which culminated in his supporters storming the national legislature in January 2023.

Random Musings

--Presidential approval ratings....

Gallup: 41% approve of President Biden’s job performance, 56% disapprove; 38% of independents approve (Oct. 14-27).

Rasmussen: 45% approve, 54% disapprove (Nov. 22).

--The 2024 Election...as the final votes are tabulated...some House races still in doubt.

President: Trump 76,733,150 (50.0), Harris 74,191,964 (48.3).

Senate: 53-47 GOP, as Pennsylvania Democratic incumbent Bob Casey finally conceded on Thursday, calling Republican David McCormick.

But Pennsylvania’s state Supreme Court on Monday weighed in on ongoing vote counting in the race, ordering counties not to count mail-in ballots that lack a correct handwritten date on the return envelope. 

House: Republicans 219 Democrats 213...it might end up 221-214, but three, make that two, House Republicans are in line for Cabinet positions (Matt Gaetz having resigned outright earlier, before he dropped out Thursday).*

Special elections to replace Gaetz and Rep. Mike Waltz in Florida might be held in May, while New York Gov. Kathy Hochul has 90 days to set an election for Rep. Elise Stefanik.

Ergo, it could be 218-214...thus not much margin for dissent inside the GOP, early in the new Trump administration.

*There was an issue whether Gaetz, since he won his election for his seat, could come back to the House, if GOP leadership would allow that, but Gaetz said this morning he was not returning.

--President-elect Trump said that Chris Wright, CEO of Denver-based Liberty Energy, was his selection to head the Energy Department.  Wright is a vocal advocate of oil and gas development, including fracking, a key pillar of Trump’s quest to achieve U.S. “energy dominance” in the global market.

Trump chose Brendan Carr to be chairman of the Federal Communications Commission, naming a veteran Republican regulator who has publicly agreed with the incoming administration’s promises to slash regulations, go after Big Tech and punish TV networks for political bias.

The FCC licenses airwaves for radio and TV, regulates phone costs, and promotes the spread of home internet.  Before the election, Mr. Trump indicated he wanted the agency to strip broadcasters like NBC and CBS of their licensing for unfair coverage.

Carr was the author of a chapter on the FCC in the Project 2025 planning document, in which he argued that the agency should also regulate the largest tech companies, such as Apple, Meta, Google and Microsoft.

“The censorship cartel must be dismantled,” Carr said last week in a post on X.

As in, a Chairman Carr could be interesting.

--Trump picked World Wrestling Entertainment co-founder and his transition co-chair, Linda McMahon, as his nominee for education secretary. She led the Small Business Administration during Trump’s first term.

Her nomination came shortly after Trump chose Mehmet Oz, a celebrity doctor and former television host, to lead the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

Former acting Attorney General Matt Whitaker was chosen to serve as U.S. ambassador to NATO.  Another unusual selection in that Whitaker’s background is as a lawyer and not in foreign policy.

And Howard Lutnick was selected for commerce secretary, where he will play a key role carrying out Trump’s plan to raise and enforce tariffs.  He is also a cryptocurrency enthusiast and head of brokerage and investment bank Cantor Fitzgerald.

--In the battle for the Treasury Dept. cabinet selection, at the time Scott Bessent vs. Howard Lutnick, Elon Musk weighed in last weekend and endorsed Lutnick, which I imagine Mr. Trump didn’t particularly like.  It’s now apparently Bessent vs. Apollo Global Management’s Marc Rowan.

--President-elect Trump confirmed on Monday that he plans to use the U.S. military to carry out a mass deportation of undocumented migrants.

He posted “TRUE!!!” on Truth Social in response to a conservative commentator who wrote that Trump would declare a national emergency and use military assets to lead “a mass deportation program.”

At campaign events, Trump repeatedly pledged to mobilize the National Guard to assist Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), the federal agency tasked with carrying out deportations.

Trump had repeatedly said he would begin deportations on his first day in office, which will be 20 January 2025.

But even if the new administration was able to legally move ahead with these plans, authorities would still have to contend with enormous logistical challenges.

Trump has also said the inevitable major financial cost would not deter his efforts.

--A woman testified to the House Ethics Committee that Matt Gaetz paid her for sex and that she witnessed him having sex with a 17-year-old party, her lawyer said over the weekend.

Florida attorney Joel Leppard said in an interview with the Washington Post that one of his clients witnessed Gaetz having sex with the minor at a drug-fueled party in July 2017 – and that Gaetz was unaware of her age at the time but subsequently was told she was underage.  ABC News first reported the news.

This woman and a second woman, also represented by Leppard, testified that they were paid by Gaetz to have sex with him and other individuals who attended these ‘sex parties.’  They were paid through Venmo or other conduits – including PayPal.

Members of the House Committee on Ethics then deadlocked on releasing a report of its investigation into Gaetz.

Rep. Michael Guest (R-Miss.) told reporters that the 10 members reached “no agreement on releasing the report” into the probe.

Democrats on the committee, while not revealing details, said they wouldn’t characterize the two-hour meeting the way Guest did.

And then Thursday, shortly after noon, facing a new CNN report that was about to be released concerning further sexual misbehavior, Gaetz withdrew his name from consideration.

President-elect Trump then almost immediately named Pam Bondi, the former attorney general of Florida, to replace Gaetz.

Bondi is a longtime Trump ally and was one of the lawyers during his first impeachment trial.  She has some baggage, but she is confirmable.

--Pete Hegseth, we learned over the weekend, paid a woman who accused him of sexual assault as part of a nondisclosure agreement, though he maintained that their encounter was consensual, according to a statement from his lawyer Saturday and other documents obtained by the Washington Post.

Hegseth’s attorney, Timothy Parlatore, said that Hegseth was “visibly intoxicated” at the time of the incident, and maintained that police who were contacted a few days after the encounter by the woman concluded that “the Complainant had been the aggressor in the encounter.”

Hegseth agreed to pay an undisclosed amount to the woman because he feared that revelation of the matter “would result in his immediate termination from Fox,” where he worked as a host, the statement said.

A police report was then released Wednesday night that provided graphic details about a sexual assault accusation against Hegseth.  The report also documents his vehement denials that he coerced the complainant into a sexual encounter at a Monterey, Calif., political conference seven years ago. 

The details are disgusting.

--Josh Rogin / Washington Post

“As Tulsi Gabbard evolved from Democratic congresswoman to MAGA celebrity and now Republican nominee for Donald Trump’s Cabinet, she has been called a lot of names.  She has been accused of being a ‘Russian asset,’ a ‘useful idiot’ and even ‘Russia’s girlfriend.’  Hillary Clinton once suggested Moscow was ‘grooming’ Gabbard to run for president.  In 2022, Republican Adam Kinzinger, at the time a representative of Illinois, called her ‘traitorous.’

“But the name-calling and claims of a Moscow-driven plot to elevate her (for which there is little concrete evidence0 obscure real concerns about her nomination.  The head of the U.S. intelligence community must be willing and able to distinguish between democracies and autocracies, and separate propaganda from reality.  Gabbard’s record shows she consistently fails to do both.

“Indeed, Gabbard is dangerous precisely because she doesn’t need any outside influence to come to her conspiratorial, dictator-friendly worldview.  The problem is not that Gabbard’s views are unconventional.  It’s that her long-standing pattern of embracing and amplifying Russia propaganda speaks to her poor judgment and tenuous allegiance to the truth.

“Yes, Gabbard admirably served in the military.  But military service alone doesn’t ensure one is qualified to lead the intelligence community.  Take the case of Michael Flynn, a three-star general and leader of the Defense Intelligence Agency who, after being fired 24 days into his service as Trump’s national security adviser in 2017, descended into a spiral of conspiratorial thinking, endorsing QAnon and promoting the idea that the United Nations is working to ban Christianity.  Like Flynn, Gabbard has a troubling record of promoting disinformation that is damaging to U.S. interests and the intelligence community she is being asked to lead....

“Gabbard’s thinking follows a pattern. Instead of condemning Russia’s brutal, unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, she claimed that the United States and its allies were responsible for provoking Russia.  Worse, she described Ukraine as a corrupt autocracy – on par with Russia – as if there was no meaningful difference between a flawed democracy struggling to remain independent and an expansionist dictatorship.  And in 2022, she amplified debunked Russian propaganda about the existence of U.S.-funded biolabs in Ukraine, propaganda that was used by Russian President Vladimir Putin to justify his aggression.

“But it’s not that she’s somehow in Russia’s pocket.  Her antipathy toward America’s democratic allies is simply reflexive.  At a time when a rising China is destabilizing Asia, Gabbard criticized Japan’s remilitarization, suggesting the United States might find itself once again fighting the Japanese in the Pacific.

“To have someone who appears more inclined to believe adversaries’ talking points than the assessments of U.S. intelligence professionals is deeply troubling.  This isn’t just a theoretical problem.  Trump, a leader who has shown receptiveness to conspiracy theories and disinformation, could end up getting his daily intelligence brief from someone with similar inclinations. The duly-elected president is entitled to his views.  But the country is dangerously ill-served if he is not confronted with as accurate a picture of the world as our various intelligence agencies are able to deliver.”

--Peter Baker of the New York Times writes, Trump has “rolled a giant grenade into the middle of the nation’s capital and watched with mischievous glee to see who runs away and who throws themselves on it.”  Trump has said that “real power” is the ability to engender fear, and he seems to have achieved that.

--George F. Will / Washington Post

“Donald Trump, a political accelerant, has ignited, with malice aforethought, a conflagration that will singe him. And because of him, the hard, gemlike flame of James Madison’s intellect will again illuminate Washington, if the Senate is provoked into rediscovering its role.

“Some of Trump’s nominees for high executive branch responsibilities radiate contempt for everyone except the small American minority that resides on the wilder shores of MAGAdom.  His coldest contempt is for the Senate.  Like King Ferdinand VII, who upon regaining Spain’s throne in 1813 vowed to end ‘the disastrous mania of thinking,’ Trump expects the Senate to tug its forelock and forgo independent judgment.

“Some of his nominees are so ghastly they could be salutary.  They might jolt the Senate, united in nausea, into a declaration of independence. Which is what Madison, the Founders’ best mind, had in mind in Federalist 51.

“Explaining ‘the necessary partition of power among the several departments,’ he emphasized that each branch ‘should have a will of its own.’  Congress, proud of its agency and jealous of prerogatives, should not flinch from frequently being rivalrous rather than collaborative with the chief executive, whose primary duty is secondary: It is the faithful execution of the laws Congress initiates....

“Matt Gaetz, an arrested-development adolescent with the swagger of a sequined guitarist in a low-rent casino, will not be confirmed.  Hit grotesqueness, however, makes three other nominees seem what they are not: acceptable.  Considering only competence – leaving aside character blemishes – nothing in their resumes qualifies Pete Hegseth, Tulsi Gabbard or Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for the policy and administrative challenges of running the Defense Department, the intelligence community and the Department of Health and Human Services, respectively.

“The Senate’s power to reject presidential nominees is as plenary as is the president’s power to nominate.  ‘Ambition,’ said Madison, ‘must be made to counteract ambition.  The interest of the man must be connected with the constitutional rights of the place.’  A senator’s interest is braided with the Senate’s powers.  The Framers did not merely anticipate presidential-congressional conflict, they encouraged it with the Constitution’s structure.  Senators can fulfill Madison’s expectations and hopes by counteracting presidential ambitions.”

--M. Gessen / New York Times

“For those bewildered by why so many Americans apparently voted against the values of illiberal democracy, Balint Magyar has a useful formulation.  ‘Liberal democracy,’ he says, ‘offers moral constraints without problem-solving’ – a lot of rules, not a lot of change – while ‘populism offers problem-solving without moral constraints.’  Magyar, a scholar of autocracy, isn’t interested in calling Donald Trump a fascist. He sees the president-elect’s appeal in terms of something more primal: ‘Trump promises that you don’t have to think about other people.’

“Around the world, populist autocrats have leveraged the thrilling power of that promise to transform their countries into vehicles for their own singular will.  Vladimir Putin and Viktor Orban vowed to restore a simpler, more orderly past, in which men were men and in charge. What they delivered was permission to abandon societal inhibitions, to amplify the grievances of one’s own group and to heap hate on assorted others, particularly on groups that cannot speak up for themselves.  Magyar calls this ‘morally unconstrained collective egoism.’....

“Trump and his supporters have shown tremendous hostility to civic institutions – the judiciary, the media, universities, many nonprofits, some religious groups – that seek to define and enforce our obligations to one another.  Autocrats such as Orban and Putin reject that deliberative process, claiming for themselves the exclusive right to define those obligations. If those two leaders and Trump’s first term are any indication, he will likely begin by getting rid of experts, regulators and other civil servants he sees as superfluous, eliminating jobs that he thinks simply shouldn’t exist.  Expect asylum officers to be high on that list....

“Had Trump been elected to a second term in 2020, Magyar says he would have expected him to try to repeal the 22nd Amendment, which established a two-term limit for presidents.  I think he may still try to do it, clearing the way to run again at the age of 82.  Much has been written about Project 2025 as a sort of legislative blueprint for the second Trump presidency.  The historian Rick Perlstein, in a series of articles in The American Prospect, has argued that some of this coverage is misleading.  Project 2025 is a vast, complicated document full of contradictory recommendations apparently made by people with different beliefs and agendas.  Consistent with Magyar’s theory of autocracy, the document is more of a reflection of the clan of people who empower Trump and are empowered by him than an ideological document.  It is not a blueprint for coherent legislative change, but it is a blueprint still: a blueprint for trampling the system of government as it is currently constituted, a blueprint of destruction.”

--New Hampshire Dem. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen and Rhode Island Dem. Sen Jack Reed, current Senate Armed Services chairman, have requested an “investigation into Elon Musk’s involvement in U.S. government contracts with SpaceX,” citing several alleged phone calls between Musk and Russian officials over the past few months.

“These relationships between a well-known U.S. adversary and Mr. Musk, a beneficiary of billions of dollars in U.S. government funding, pose serious questions regarding Mr. Musk’s reliability as a government contractor and a clearance holder,” the senators warn in a letter to U.S. Department of Defense Inspector General Robert Storch and U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland.

But with Trump now back, and with Musk having spent over $119 million on Trump’s reelection campaign, let alone he is now co-head of the president-elect’s forthcoming Department of Government Efficiency, there will be no probe.

That said, I’m on record as not trusting Elon Musk. I love everything he’s doing with the Space program, but it stops there.

--I got a kick out of an extensive Wall Street Journal op-ed from Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy on their new Department of Government Efficient, or DOGE, which aims to cut the federal government down to size.

“We are assisting the Trump transition team to identify and hire a lean team of small-government crusaders, including some of the sharpest technical and legal minds in America. This team will work in the new administration closely with the White House Office of Management and Budget. The two of us will advise DOGE at every step to pursue three major kinds of reform: regulatory rescissions, administrative reductions and cost savings.  We will focus particularly on driving change through executive action based on existing legislation rather than by passing new laws....

“DOGE intends to work with embedded appointees in agencies to identify the minimum number of employees required at an agency for it to perform its constitutionally permissible and statutorily mandated functions....

“With a decisive electoral mandate and a 6-3 conservative majority on the Supreme Court, DOGE has a historic opportunity for structural reductions in the federal government.  We are prepared for the onslaught from entrenched interests in Washington.  We expect to prevail.”

We’ll see what happens.  Many folks want a smaller government, and there is no doubt reductions in certain departments and agencies could be made.

As an example, I’m for a strong defense, but clearly some weapons systems no longer fit todays and future battlefields, and there is waste in the Pentagon.

But there are no big savings as Musk and Ramaswamy envision without attacking entitlements.  Full stop. And no one has the guts to do that.

--A Manhattan judge postponed Donald Trump’s sentencing on his conviction in his hush-money case – and said he’ll weigh scrapping the case entirely in light of voters electing Trump as president.

Manhattan Supreme Court Justice Juan Merchan said he’ll consider claims from Trump’s lawyers that pressing on with such a case involving the president-elect would interfere with the “orderly transition of executive power” and be “uniquely destabilizing” to the country.

Both sides will present their arguments in December and Merchan will rule after.

--The Venezuelan man convicted in the killing of Georgia nursing student Laken Riley was sentenced to life in prison without the possibility of parole.

Riley’s family and friends tearfully remembered her Thursday and asked the judge to sentence Jose Ibarra to the maximum penalty.  Her mother called him a “monster” and her father called him a “truly evil person.”

Ibarra did not react as an interpreter relayed their words to him.  He deserves the death penalty.

--Authorities in India’s capital shut schools, halted construction and banned non-essential trucks from entering the city on Monday after air pollution shot up to its worst level this season.

Residents of New Delhi woke up to thick, toxic smog enveloping the city of some 33 million as the air quality became increasingly hazardous. It rose further into the severe category, according to SAFAR, the country’s main environmental agency, which measures tiny particulate matter in the air that can enter deep into the lungs.

In parts of New Delhi, pollution levels were more than 50 times higher than the World Health Organization’s recommended safe limit.

What got me was that in watching various news reports from the area, no one was wearing a mask...which is absolutely nuts because the fine particulate matter does get into your lungs.

Way back, like 20 years ago in my first of many trips to Hong Kong, I was at first shocked how many people were wearing masks on the streets...that is I was shocked for about 30 minutes until I realized how unhealthy the air was. [Some days good, some days bad.]

Indians are just handing themselves a death sentence.

--An intense storm, a “bomb cyclone,” hit western Canada and the Pacific Northwest, leaving more than 600,000 homes in Washington without power on Wednesday, 140,000 in British Columbia, and around 15,000 customers in California.  Two people were killed...a woman near Seattle died when a tree fell on a homeless encampment in Lynwood.  Another tree fell on a house, killing a woman inside.

Winds, rain and snow were expected through the week in the region, with the San Francisco bay area expected to see up to 8 inches of rain (12-16 inches elsewhere).  Feet of snow were expected in the higher elevations.

Snow and ice disrupted transport and strained power grids, after the first major storm of the winter season hit northern Europe.  Northern France saw as much as 8 inches of snow, with 270,000 homes suffering power outages, though it seemed all power would be restored over the weekend.

--The New York metropolitan area finally got some rain, and snow...about 1 ½ inches of the former Thursday and Friday.  A mere drop in the bucket compared to our needs, following an  historic 3-month drought...but we’ll take it.

--I was reading an article in the Washington Post by Matthew Cappucci on America’s northernmost town – Utqiagvi, Alaska, formerly known as Barrow – and it is kind of interesting how the sun set at 1:27 p.m. local time on Nov. 18, and it won’t reemerge from its slumber until Jan. 22, 2025.  That’s when the sun will rise at 1:15 p.m. in the south and set just 48 minutes later. The days grow longer rapidly after that.

The sky during this period can take on shades of azure or violet, but daylight won’t progress beyond dusk.

I think I could get used to this, only one problem.  The months of darkness are accompanied by brutal weather.  One quarter of all days in Barrow don’t go above zero degrees, and temperatures breach freezing only 37 percent of the time.

And it’s this climate that fosters the development of the stratospheric polar vortex, sports fans, which occasionally influences our weather during the course of the winter.

Utqiagvik picks up its sunshine in the summertime, when brightness reigns 24 hours a day in the “land of the midnight sun.”  Utqiagvik, for example, enjoys endless daylight between May 11-Aug. 19, 2025.

The article didn’t say anything about polar bears, which are rather prevalent in these parts and can devour you.

And that’s your Utqiagvik report for Friday, Nov. 22nd.

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Pray for the men and women of our armed forces...and all the fallen.

Pray for Ukraine.

God bless America.

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Gold: $2709...big rebound...like $143
Oil: $71.17...ditto...up $4.17

Bitcoin: $99,389 [4:00 PM ET, Friday...hit $99,700 today]

Regular Gas: $3.05; Diesel: $3.53 [$3.28 - $4.27 yr. ago]

Returns for the week 11/18-11/22

Dow Jones  +2.0%  [44296]
S&P 500  +1.7%  [5969]
S&P MidCap  +4.2%
Russell 2000  +4.5%
Nasdaq  +1.7%  [19003]

Returns for the period 1/1/24-11/22/24

Dow Jones  +17.5%
S&P 500  +25.1%
S&P MidCap  +20.1%
Russell 2000  +18.7%
Nasdaq  +26.6%

Bulls 60.0
Bears 18.3

Hang in there.

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Finally, I ask your indulgence while I share a few personal memories.  I learned Wednesday that I had lost a dear friend, Newt Schott; his wife, Toni, telling me he passed away, Tuesday, age 82.

It was back in November 1982 that I started my first job on Wall Street (after 2+ years in the insurance industry), at Thomson McKinnon Securities Inc. (TMSI).  In those days we were actually the eighth largest in the nation in terms of number of brokers, and I got a job through George Ross, affectionately called “Boss Ross” for the next 40 years.  [His son, George Jr., is one of my best friends to this day, going back to middle school in Summit, NJ.]

But that first day, I met Newt.  I was in the tax shelter department, which in 1982 was a hot product, and on the other side of a wall was the executive wing of TMSI.  Newt was chief counsel, and I met him and the president, kind of by chance, because they were always opening the door and coming into our area, which also included the national sales department.

I quickly grabbed major responsibility, and there was reason for the president to come into my office, sit himself down, and ask what I was doing in terms of the allocation of private placement units, which had gross commissions of $7,500...which was big back then.  Little me had the opportunity to play God...and I skillfully manipulated the game (I also had many a sleepless night).  I had top producers telling me, ‘Come out to Indianapolis...work for me.  You’ll make more money.’ 

I always wondered what would have happened had I done that.

After leaving TMSI, being hired back, and then transferred six times in a 2-year period, the company was going under.  Prudential Securities acquired the brokerage arm, I wanted severance but wouldn’t get it since Pru offered me a job in their national sales department.  I stayed there about three months (where I met Ed Yardeni, and a young kid, Tony Dwyer, who I can’t say enough good things about...talk about grabbing an opportunity by the balls, that was Tony...he became a top market strategist in his own right), and then I left to go off on my own for a bit, trading.

Well, I’ve talked about the thousands of mistakes I’ve made and that was one of them, but I also left my jobs in good standing...I learned, never burn your bridges...and there was a certain man at the Thomson Fund Group, which survived the bankruptcy of TMSI because we were a separate, publicly traded entity, one Jack Leasure, who had been my boss in Washington (one of my six transfers), and he saved my career.

So, I ended up with them, only their office was now in Stamford, CT.  I was in Summit, later New Providence, and I had a 75-mile drive each way over the Tappan Zee Bridge. Which meant I had to leave very early to avoid the traffic.

Like 5:00 a.m.  And I was the first person in the office at 6:15. Leaving an hour later, it’s a different story.

Newt, who was second-furthest away, was the second person in the office at 6:30. I made the coffee for both of us.

I eventually became national sales manager, Newt was chief counsel, and we became closer as friends.  He occasionally bailed me out of dicey situations, us folks in sales sometimes a bit more aggressive than we should be.

PIMCO then bought Thomson and I thought they’d bring in their own people, especially for my position, but, heck, I had done a good job and clearly, I had supporters, so I survived.

I left PIMCO in Feb. 1999, having long planned on starting StocksandNews for like a year before, and having been writing a Week in Review column for PIMCO when they started their web site in 1997, I rolled right into S&N without taking a break.  And PIMCO was super in allowing me to tell my readers on their site what I was doing.

Meanwhile, Newt and I stayed in touch, he left about two years later, and it was an honor when he insisted I sit next to him at his going away dinner. 

Now retired, Newt and I started a tradition where we would have dinner every year in January or February, wife Toni with us, in Montclair, where they lived.  It was all centered around football.  I was the Jets fan, Newt a Giants fan, and you have to picture how Newt and I would immediately message each other after every game to talk about our teams.

Of course, for large stretches, both teams sucked, which was part of the charm.  A typical note was, “Sorry, Newt.  Not your Boys’ best effort.” He would reply with a bit more technical explanation, but then he always offered condolences on my team’s play.

We never had our dinner until after football season, and this year we were writing in October that we could really schedule it (at the same restaurant, every year) for early January since there were no playoffs in our future.

The dinners were then about politics, not football.  Newt and Toni were fiercely bright, and the conversations were spirited.  We talked about our travels (back when I was a traveling fool), and it was always delightful.

I feared something was wrong when I didn’t hear from him last Sunday after the Jets game, and it turns out he was in the hospital, not able to communicate.

This was a good man.  I’ve reached out to some who knew him closely and we all have the same memories...number one, he had a wicked sense of humor...the very best.

One of the few people, though, who I keep in real touch with since the PIMCO, Stamford days, Jeff B., a terrific supporter of S&N, would always tell me how he and Newt communicated on Labor Day, because it was Newt’s belief that the year started then.  And you know, it makes total sense.

Newt was a big contributor to local causes, and on the Board of Trustees at the Montclair Art Museum, until his passing, and one of the things I was always fascinated with was how museums put on special exhibits...with all the paintings being collected from various locations, the requirements (humidity and such in the museum) and Montclair had a spectacular Georgia O’Keeffe show years ago that I know was not an easy task for Newt and crew to pull off.

Toni and Newt spent their summers in Chautauqua, NY, to take in the intellectual scene, and that is where they have chosen donations to be made.

Toni and I will continue the tradition of our dinners. I’ll make sure of that.

God love you, Newt.  My condolences to Toni and their two kids, Keith and April, and their grandchildren, whose pictures I always got to see.

Brian Trumbore

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