Week in Review

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Week in Review

03/08/2025

For the week 3/3-3/7

[Posted 4:30 PM ET, Friday]

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Special thanks to longtime supporter Bill C.

Edition 1,350

What a clown show...President Donald Trump’s tariff chaos and endless whiplash.  For good reason, the financial markets, Corporate America, entrepreneurs and farmers are on edge and stressed out.  For its part, Wall Street craves certainty and has none of it these days.

And not for nuthin’, but we have another looming government shutdown deadline, March 14.

On the Russia-Ukraine front, it has been sickening to watch Trump force President Zelensky of Ukraine to make all the concessions in a potential peace agreement/ceasefire, while never once mentioning what he wants Vladimir Putin and Russia to give...never.  Never blasted Russia for its endless attacks on Ukraine’s civilians and energy infrastructure.

That is...until today...when after another vicious, deadly, massive attack across Ukraine, Trump posted on Truth Social:

“Based on the fact that Russia is absolutely ‘pounding’ Ukraine on the battlefield right now, I am strongly considering large scale Banking Sanctions, Sanctions, and Tariffs on Russia until a Cease Fire and FINAL SETTLEMENT AGREEMENT ON PEACE IS REACHED.  To Russia and Ukraine, get to the table right now, before it is too late. Thank you!!!”

So it was ‘kind of’ a slap down for Vlad the Impaler.

But at the same time, Trump pulled all military aid for Ukraine, at least temporarily, which includes a halt to the delivery of interceptor missiles for the Patriot air defense systems Ukraine has been so heavily reliant on, saving untold lives and infrastructure.

Trump has also paused intelligence sharing with Ukraine, which means no early warning data provided by American satellites that can detect aircraft and missile launches deep in Russian territory.  [It is assumed this has been shut down.]

And then this afternoon in his Oval Office presser, Trump said, “I’m finding it more difficult, frankly, to deal with Ukraine...It may be easier dealing with Russia.”

Unbelievable...and Trump admitted he was denying Ukraine interceptor missiles, and nonsensically said he wanted to “end the death.”  Huh?

Lastly, on a totally different topic...when was the last time you saw a PSA, Public Service Announcement, that put forward the message, ‘Just Say No to Drugs.’  We have anti-vaping PSAs out the ass, but I wish the American people would speak the truth about drugs...you don’t have to do them!

There was a time, long ago, when we had PSAs with an anti-drug message, and they worked!

To wit...you have to be of a certain age...but here’s one...Nancy Reagan and Clint Eastwood....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QALu_tj1skU

Put together duos that young people, and Middle America (with its small towns ripped to pieces by fentanyl) can relate to...like Stephen A. Smith and Charles Barkley, or LeBron James and Steph Curry; Taylor Swift and Beyonce; Jason Aldean and Shaboozey; Donald J. Trump and Melania!  Just freakin’ do it.  [I did not do a deep dive to check on any history of drug use with these names.]

Well...this is how the past week went down...day by day....

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As President Trump went before the American people Tuesday evening for an update to a joint session of Congress, he launched a trade war with Mexico and Canada, 25 percent, as well as an additional 10 percent applied to Chinese goods.  Beijing retaliated Tuesday with tariffs on U.S. food and farm goods, and China also slapped export curbs on 25 U.S. firms, on grounds of national security, but avoided punishing any household names as when it retaliated against the Trump administration’s February 4 tariffs.

Canada then announced tariffs of their own on U.S. products.  Mexico said it was holding off until Sunday.

Wall Street responded rather viciously Monday and Tuesday, the Dow Jones down 1,300 points.  What was once thought to be a harmless game of chicken now looked rather serious, when coupled with the geopolitical scene.

Trump wrote on Truth Social, Tuesday: “To the Great Farmers of the United States: Get ready to start making a lot of agricultural products to be sold INSIDE of the United States.  Tariffs will go on external products on April 2nd.  Have fun!”

And...

“Please explain to Governor Trudeau, of Canada, that when he puts on a Retaliatory Tariff on the U.S., our Reciprocal Tariff will immediately increase by a like amount!”

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“President Trump likes to cite the stock market when it’s rising as a sign of his policy success, so what does he think about Monday’s plunge?  The Dow Jones Industrial Average took a 650-point header after he announced that he’ll hit Mexico and Canada on Tuesday with 25% tariffs.

“Mr. Trump said at the White House there was ‘no room left’ to negotiate with the two American trade treaty partners. Some of his smarter advisers have been hoping he’d start renegotiating the USMCA and delay the tariffs. But Mr. Trump wants tariffs for their own sake, which he says will usher in a new golden age.

“We’ve courted Mr. Trump’s ire by calling the Mexico and Canada levies the ‘dumbest’ in history, and we may have understated the point. Mr. Trump is whacking friends, not adversaries.  His taxes will hit every cross-border transaction, and the North American vehicle market is so interconnected that some cars cross a border as many as eight times as they’re assembled.

“Mr. Trump also objected when we reported an analysis by the Anderson Economic Group that the 25% tariff will raise the cost of a full-sized SUV assembled in North America by $9,000 and a pickup truck by $8,000.  Is this how the new Republican Party plans on helping working-class voters?

“Mr. Trump is volatile, and who knows how long he’ll keep the tariffs in place. Retaliation that hits certain states and businesses may also cause him to reconsider sooner than he imagines. Investors are trying to read this uncertainty as they also watch growing evidence of a slowing U.S. economy.  Unbridled Tariff Man was always going to be a big economic risk in a second term, and here we are.”

During his address to Congress Tuesday evening, Trump defended his plan to remake the world’s largest economy through the biggest tariff increases in a century, saying it would raise “trillions and trillions” in revenue and rebalance trading relationships he called unfair. He cast the economic pain the levies are expected to cause in the form of higher prices as a “little disturbance” the nation ought to be able to overcome.

“Tariffs are about making America rich again and making America great again. And it’s happening, and it will happen rather quickly. There’ll be a little disturbance, but we’re OK with that. It won’t be much.”

In his record hour-and-40-minute speech, Trump declared “America is back.” 

He doubled down on tariffs... “Whatever they tariff us – the other countries – we will tariff them,” he said.  “Whatever they tax us, we will tax them.”

“We inherited, from the last administration, an economic catastrophe and an inflation nightmare. Their policies drove up energy prices, pushed up the cost of groceries, and drove the necessities of life out of reach for millions of Americans,” Trump said.

But Wednesday, Trump, after talking to leaders of the Big Three U.S. automakers – General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis – said he’d pause tariffs on cars coming into America from Canada and Mexico for a period of one month.

Additional trade-related tariffs that may affect the auto industry will still go into effect on April 2, if they aren’t already in place.  As in auto manufacturers could still get whacked, today, with tariffs on parts and materials that cross the border, which could add thousands of dollars to the cost of each vehicle.

Asked why Mr. Trump granted only a one-month reprieve, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said the president expected the automakers to move production back to the United States.  The message, she said, was to “get on it, shift production here to America where they will pay no tariffs,” she said.

Trump declined to offer a broader reprieve to Canada, despite overtures by Prime Minister Trudeau, the two talking Wednesday.

On Truth Social, Trump wrote that he had told Trudeau that “many people have died from Fentanyl that came through the Borders of Canada and Mexico, and nothing has convinced me that it has stopped.”

The president added: “He said that it’s gotten better, but I said, ‘That’s not good enough.’”

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, in a news conference Wednesday, defiantly repeated several times, “we will not submit.”

Sheinbaum had a call with Trump scheduled for Thursday.  Wednesday, she said that if tariffs remain in place, the Mexican government will announce retaliatory measures on Sunday, when it has also called for a demonstration in Mexico City.

Farmers will get hit by the 25% levies imposed on materials they import and any retaliatory measures from Mexico, Canada, and China from products that get exported.

In 2018, the last time Trump imposed tariffs on imports, U.S. agriculture exports to China were cut by half to less than $10 billion. The sector experienced more than $27 billion in losses.

Back then, the Trump administration handed out billions in subsidies as compensation, and may have to do the same this time.  But compared with 2018, American farmers are in a worse financial position.

In 2024, Mexico imported roughly $30.3 billion worth of agricultural goods from the U.S., according to data from the Department of Agriculture, followed by Canada with $28.4 billion, and China with $24.7 billion. The three countries make up more than half of the total.

Chinese imports of U.S. soybeans alone were worth $12.8 billion last year.  The import volume, more than 27 million metric tons, made up nearly a quarter of U.S. production.

U.S. tariffs on imported products could further increase costs for farmers. For example, around 85% of potash – an important ingredient in fertilizer – is imported from Canada.

“For the third straight year, farmers are losing money on almost every major crop planted,’ wrote Zippy Duvall, president of the American Farm Bureau.

But then Thursday, Trump said he has postponed 25% tariffs on most goods from Mexico for a month after a conversation with President Sheinbaum, having done the same for Canada earlier in the day.  The president signed executive orders offering a monthlong exemption, until April 2, for all goods covered under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, which will apply to about half of Mexican imports and 37%-38% of Canadian goods that comply with the USMCA, which Trump negotiated during his first term.  Canadian energy imports are subject to a 10% tariff, not 25%.

Despite the respite, there are still goods that will continue to be hit with new tariffs that aren’t covered under USMCA, which makes this all even more confusing.

Canada said it would not go forward with a second wave of tariffs on $125 billion of American imports until April 2, Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc announced, “while we continue to work for the removal of all tariffs.”

But Ontario’s prime minister said a 25% export tax on electricity sold to New York, Michigan and Minnesota would take effect Monday and remain in place until Trump drops all tariff threats against Canada, including the potential April 2 snapback.

“We are working hard, together, on the Border, both in terms of stopping illegal Aliens from entering the United States and, likewise, stopping Fentanyl,” Trump said on Truth Social.

Still, the president has said that he expects to impose more tariffs on Canada and Mexico next month, when he announces what he is calling “reciprocal” tariff measures. 

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Looking back to last Friday, the Oval Office meeting between Presidents Trump and Zelensky was civil for nearly 40 minutes, though why a meeting of such length was allowed to be televised was nonsensical.  And then as we saw it deteriorated, degenerating into a virtual showdown as Vice President Vance dispensed with any formalities and accused Zelensky of being “disrespectful” by offering the Ukrainian view of the war and what would be required for peace in the Oval Office with news cameras present.  As Peter Baker of the New York Times put it:

“From there, Mr. Vance and Mr. Trump pummeled Mr. Zelensky for being insufficiently grateful, when he tried to get a word in.”

Trump wrote on social media Friday afternoon after the exchange, and after Zelensky had been booted out of the White House:

“He disrespected the United States of America in its cherished Oval Office... He can come back when he is ready for Peace.”

David Sanger / New York Times

“To the shock of America’s allies, (JD) Vance traveled to the Munich Security Conference two weeks ago and said nothing about assuring that any armistice or ceasefire would come with security guarantees for Ukraine, or about Russia paying any price for its invasion.

“Instead, Mr. Vance seemed to embrace the rising far-right party in Germany [AfD] and its counterparts throughout Europe.  Gone was the Biden-era talk about sticking with Ukraine ‘as long as it takes’ to deter any temptation by Russia to carry the war farther West.

“Mr. Zelensky saw all this, of course – he was at Munich, too – but clearly he did not read the room the way his European supporters did. While President Emmanuel Macron of France and Prime Minister Keir Starmer of Britain preceded him to the Oval Office with elaborate plans to placate Mr. Trump, and explain how Europe was stepping up its own military spending, Mr. Zelensky took the bait, especially when Mr. Vance began mocking Ukraine’s efforts to recruit troops.

“He got combative, telling Mr. Trump that the oceans between America and Russia would not protect it forever.  Mr. Trump raised his voice, and told the Ukrainian that he would be lucky just to get a ceasefire, suggesting that any terms – or no terms – would be better than his inevitable defeat.

“ ‘I want to see guarantees,’ Mr. Zelensky retorted. And minutes later, he left the White House, his luncheon of rosemary roasted chicken and crème Brule uneaten, the minerals deal unsigned and his country’s future ability to fend off a renewed Russian push to topple Kyiv in doubt.”

Editorial / Wall Street Journal

“Mr. Zelensky would have been wiser to defuse the tension by thanking the U.S. again, and deferring to Mr. Trump. There’s little benefit in trying to correct the historical record in front of Mr. Trump when you’re also seeking his help.

“But as with the war, Mr. Zelensky didn’t start this Oval Office exchange. Was he supposed to tolerate an extended public denigration of the Ukrainian people, who have been fighting a war for survival for three years?

“It is bewildering to see Mr. Trump’s allies defending this debacle as some show of American strength.  The U.S. interest in Ukraine is shutting down Mr. Putin’s imperial project of reassembling a lost Soviet empire without U.S. soldiers ever having to fire a shot.  That core interest hasn’t changed, but berating Ukraine in front of the entire world will make it harder to achieve.

“Turning Ukraine over to Mr. Putin would be catastrophic for that country and Europe, but it would be a political calamity for Mr. Trump too.  The U.S. President can’t simply walk away from that conflict, much as he would like to.  Ukraine has enough weapons support to last until sometime this summer.  But as the war stands, Mr. Putin sees little reason to make any concessions as his forces gain ground inch by bloody inch in Ukraine’s east.

“Friday’s spectacle won’t make him any more willing to stop his onslaught as he sees the U.S. President and his eager deputy unload on Ukraine’s leader.  Some Trumpologists have been suggesting Mr. Trump will put pressure on Mr. Putin in due time. But so far Mr. Putin hasn’t made a single concession on territory, or on Ukraine’s ability to defend itself in the future after a peace deal is signed....

“Mr. Trump does not want to be the President who abandoned Ukraine to Vladimir Putin with all the bloodshed and damage to U.S. interests that would result.  Mr. Vance won’t like to run for President in such a world either.”

Rattled European leaders gathered in London on Sunday, promising they would “double down” on supporting Ukraine and boosting military aid following the Oval Office blowup.

The heads of state rallied about President Zelensky, who was greeted with cheers outside 10 Downing Street and a warm hug from British Prime Minister Keir Starmer when he arrived late Saturday.

While the London gathering did not produce a formal statement, Starmer told reporters afterward that participants agreed to sustain or boost military aid flowing to Ukraine, and to insist that Kyiv be directly involved in any negotiations with Moscow to end the war.

Starmer, who organized the meeting and has talked to Trump at least twice since the Zelensky meeting, said the gathering solidified Britain’s own commitment to Ukraine.

“We are doubling down,” Starmer said at the summit’s end.  He announced a new $2.7 billion loan for Ukraine, backed by frozen Russian assets, and $2 billion in British export financing for Ukraine to purchase air defense missiles manufactured in Belfast.

Europe’s aim now, he said, was to arm Ukraine sufficiently that it could begin any peace talks from a position of strength.  He said other countries had expressed interest in joining a “coalition of the willing” to help monitor a ceasefire, but did not announce any formal commitments.

Starmer said Sunday that he and French President Emmanuel Macron were working to shape a diplomatic cleanup of U.S.-Ukraine relations.  The two and “possibly one or two others” would act as mediators between Washington and Kyiv, seeking a ceasefire plan acceptable to Ukraine and Europe that they would then present to Trump.

Starmer said “we are at a crossroads in history,” and unveiled a four-point plan that the parties to the summit agreed to: To keep military aid flowing into Ukraine, to have Kyiv at the table for any peace talks, for European leaders to aim to deter any future Russian invasion of Ukraine and a “coalition of the willing” will be formed to defend Ukraine and guarantee peace there.

Europe must do the heavy lifting in any peace deal, Starmer said, but the agreement would need U.S. backing.

Fyi...last year, the EU, UK and Norway combined gave Ukraine around $25 billion in military aid – more than the U.S. sent, according to European officials.  [Wall Street Journal]

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte of the Netherlands said several European countries that he did not name had pledged to increase their military spending. Rutte also insisted that Trump was committed to NATO, telling reporters after the meeting to “please stop gossiping” about the possibility that the United States would pull out of the alliance.

Starmer, asked in a BBC interview Sunday whether he could trust Trump, said he believed the president was sincere in his desire for a lasting peace in Ukraine.  But he acknowledged the Oval Office verbal brawl made him squirm.

“Nobody wants to see what happened on Friday,” Starmer said.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in an interview with ABC’s “This Week” that Zelensky foiled Trump’s plans to strike a ceasefire with Russia, claiming Zelensky disrupted American efforts to get Putin to the negotiating table.

“That’s our goal,” Rubio said. “Don’t do anything to disrupt that. And that’s what Zelensky did, unfortunately. He found every opportunity to try to ‘Ukraine-splain’ on every issue.”

Francesca Ebel / Washington Post:

“The Trump administration’s rewrite of decades of U.S. foreign policy on Russia, laid bare in the Oval Office confrontation between President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, is bringing Washington into alignment with Moscow, the Kremlin said Sunday – a shift that could upend the geopolitics that have governed international relations since World War II.

“ ‘The new administration is rapidly changing all foreign policy and configurations,’ Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, state television reported Sunday.  ‘This largely aligns with our vision.’

“Moscow’s vision, which has focused on a push to reclaim influence over much or all of the former Soviet Union and defeat liberal democracy, has made Russia a pariah to the West....

“But on Sunday, as European leaders rallied behind Zelensky in London, Peskov said the administration’s new approach could herald a new thaw between Washington and Moscow.’

“ ‘There is a long way to go because a lot of damage has been done to the whole complex of bilateral relations,’ he said.  ‘But if the political will of the two leaders, President Putin and President Trump, is maintained, this path can be quite quick and successful.’”

With Friday’s performance, Trump and Vance ganging up on Zelensky, there was much glee in Moscow. 

Konstantin Remchukov, the well-connected editor of Nezavisimaya Gazeta, told the Washington Post:

“We don’t even have to step in – we can just retransmit what the Americans are saying,” Remchukov said.  He noted that Putin had “smartly” withheld comment on the meeting, and could afford to stay silent for now.

“The public will conclude that our leaders were correct in their assessment of Zelensky as a leader of Ukraine,” Remchukov said.  “This is a huge gift for them.”

Republican Senator Lisa Murkowksi (AK) is one of the few Republicans with a spine, saying Saturday that there were “whispers from the White House that they may try to end all US support for Ukraine...I am sick to my stomach as the administration appears to be walking away from our allies and embracing Putin, a threat to democracy and US values around the world.”

Republican Rep. Don Bacon (NE): “A bad day for America’s foreign policy.  Ukraine wants independence, free markets and rule of law. It wants to be part of the West. Russia hates us and our Western values. We should be clear that we stand for freedom.”

Editorial / Wall Street Journal, part II

“With his first weeks back in office, and especially after Friday’s Oval Office brawling with Ukraine’s president, it’s clear President Trump has designs for a new world order.  Perhaps he could share this vision with the country when he addresses Congress on Tuesday.

“The conventional view of Mr. Trump is that he’s above all transactional.  He wants deals, at home and abroad, that he can sell as great successes.  But the way his second term is unfolding, this may undersell his ambition.  Mr. Trump’s strategy seems to be moving toward that of Tucker Carlson and JD Vance, who view America as in decline and no longer able to lead or defend the West.

“It seems clear that Mr. Trump wants to wash his hands of Ukraine.  ‘You’re either going to make a deal, or we’re out,’ Mr. Trump ordered Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday. This will embolden Vladimir Putin to insist on even harsher terms for a cease-fire deal.  Mr. Trump seems mainly concerned with rehabilitating Mr. Putin in world councils, such as the G-7.  He wants an early summit with the Russian, though Mr. Putin has made no concessions on Ukraine or anything else.

“While he solicits Moscow, Mr. Trump is hammering traditional U.S. friends. He plans 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, in violation of his own USMCA trade deal, and his defense secretary has threatened to invade Mexico to pursue drug cartels.  He wants to hit Western Europe with heavy tariffs on its autos, and slap reciprocal tariffs on the rest of the trading world.

“These tariffs are harsher than those he has put on China. He is clearly courting Xi Jinping, the Communist Party boss, calling him a great leader and talking about a new mutual understanding. He has shown no similar interest in defending Taiwan, and he has said in the past that China can easily dominate the island democracy in a conflict.  Watching Mr. Trump and Ukraine, the leaders of Taiwan and Japan should be deeply worried.

“Meanwhile in the Americas, Mr. Trump has demanded control over the Panama Canal, which the U.S. ceded by treaty in 1999. And he wants Denmark to sell Greenland to the U.S.  These moves taken together hint at a worldview that has long been the goal of American isolationists: Let China dominate the Pacific, Russia dominate Europe, and the U.S. the Americas.  The Middle East would presumably remain a region of contention, at least until Mr. Trump does a nuclear deal with Iran.

“All of this would amount to an epochal return to the world of great power competition and balance of power that prevailed before World War II.  It’s less a brave new world than a reversion to a dangerous old one....

“Mr. Trump says he is making America great again, not retreating from the defense of freedom. He says he wants ‘peace,’ but is it peace with honor, or the peace of the grave for Ukraine and accommodation to Chinese domination in the Pacific? And why isn’t he increasing defense spending?....

“If Russia drives peace on its terms in Ukraine, look for Russia to invade elsewhere in the future and other stronger states to grab territory from their neighbors.  Look for America’s allies to seek new trading and security relationships that don’t rely on the U.S. and might conflict with U.S. interests.  Japan will have little choice but to become a nuclear power to deter China, and there will be others.

“As Charles Krauthammer famously said, decline is a choice.  Mr. Trump has an obligation to tell Americans what new order he thinks he is building.  Then we can have a debate about his intentions and its consequences.  Tuesday night would be a good moment to make his ambitions clear.”

M. Gessen (a Russian exile living in the U.S.) / New York Times

“(Vladimir) Putin doesn’t just want a return to the 20th century.  He already resides there, and that is where anyone looking for what could happen next should turn.  Specifically to 1938, when the British prime minister Neville Chamberlain, who fancied himself a brilliant negotiator and an expert in all things, brokered an agreement that gave Hitler Sudetenland, an area of Czechoslovakia. In exchange, the rest of Europe would, ostensibly, be safe from German aggression.  A year after the resulting Munich Agreement was signed, of course, Germany invaded Poland and World War II officially began.

“When Trump, fuming, threatened Zelensky with the potential for World War III, he may have been drawing a more accurate historical parallel than he realized.

“What happens if Russia unleashes its aggression against Europe, unchecked or even aided by the United States? The exact contours of the looming catastrophe are impossible to predict. It will not look like the bipolar world of the second half of the 20th century.  But just as certainly, it will not look like the world in which we have been living and in which the populations of most of the world’s wealthy countries have felt safe.”

Which brings us to late Monday, when President Trump temporarily suspended the delivery of all U.S. military aid to Ukraine. The order takes effect immediately and affects more than $1 billion in arms and ammunition in the pipeline and on order. 

Trump’s directive also halts hundreds of millions of dollars in aid through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, which provides funds that Kyiv can use only to buy new military hardware directly from U.S. defense companies.  It was unclear what exactly Zelensky would need to do for Trump to resume the military assistance.

Trump said on Monday that he did not think the deal was dead, calling it a “great deal for us,” but that there was one thing he needed to see from Zelensky to restart negotiations.

“I just think he should be more appreciative,” Trump told reporters.

Tuesday, President Zelensky said in a statement that his Oval Office meeting with Trump “did not go the way it was supposed to,” describing it as regrettable and noting that Ukraine is ready to negotiate.

“I would like to reiterate Ukraine’s commitment to peace,” Zelensky said on X. “None of us wants an endless war. Ukraine is ready to come to the negotiating table as soon as possible to bring lasting peace closer.  Nobody wants peace more than Ukrainians.  My team and I stand ready to work under President Trump’s strong leadership to get a peace that lasts.”

“Our meeting in Washington...did not go the way it was supposed to be.  It is regrettable that it happened this way.  It is time to make things right.  We would like future cooperation and communication to be constructive,” Zelensky said.

Zelensky also said Ukraine is ready to sign a deal on Ukraine’s minerals.

“We do really value how much America has done to help Ukraine maintain its sovereignty and independence. And we remember the moment when things changed when President Trump provided Ukraine with Javelins. We are grateful for this.”

Wednesday, CIA Director John Ratcliffe said President Trump had ordered a pause to intelligence sharing with Ukraine, a move that deprives Kyiv of a key tool in fighting Russian forces.

The U.S. has shared intelligence with Kyiv since the early months of the war, allowing Ukrainian forces to target Russian forces more effectively.

Thursday, Steve Witkoff, the Trump administration’s special envoy to the Middle East, said today that U.S. and Ukrainian officials plan to meet in Saudi Arabia next week to discuss an end to the war.

European leaders met in Brussels to discuss a $160 billion plan to bolster their defenses and proposals to send troops to Ukraine to support a future peace plan.

Editorial / Wall Stret Journal, late Thursday....

“President Trump assures Americans that Vladimir Putin wants ‘peace’ in Ukraine, but the key question is what kind of peace?  The answer seems to be a peace of subjugation in which Ukraine is left to defend itself with no outside help until Russia decides to invade again.

“That’s the implication of Thursday’s comments from Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, that the Kremlin won’t tolerate Western European troops on Ukrainian soil. ‘We see no room for compromise,’ Mr. Lavrov told reporters Thursday at a press conference in Moscow.  The presence of European forces in Ukraine would mean the ‘undisguised involvement of NATO countries in a war against the Russian Federation.  It’s impossible to allow this.’

“This is no surprise, as Russia responds to Mr. Trump’s pressure on Ukraine by increasing its demands as part of any agreement with Ukraine.  Mr. Trump has already conceded to Mr. Putin’s demand that Ukraine not be allowed to join NATO after the war ends.  Now Russia is rejecting the French-British Plan B, which would put some of their troops in Ukraine after the war, though not under NATO auspices.

“If Mr. Putin really wants peace, why would he object to a modest deployment that poses no threat to Russia?  The answer is that his postwar goal is to leave Ukraine in a weakened state that isn’t aligned with the West and is ripe for his next imperial assault.  He wants to own or dominate Ukraine, full stop.

“Meanwhile, the U.S. continues to squeeze Volodymyr Zelensky... If Mr. Trump wants to end the killing, why is he withholding intel that will encourage Russia to escalate and kill more Ukrainian civilians and soldiers?

“So far in this one-sided peace process, Ukraine is supposed to make all the concessions, while Russia demands more rewards for its unprovoked invasion that has killed hundreds of thousands.”

More below.

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Trump, Elon, cont’d....

--Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has ordered U.S. Cyber Command to halt offensive operations against Russia, according to reporting by the New York Times, citing current and former officials briefed on the secret instructions.  The move is apparently part of a broader effort to draw President Putin into talks on Ukraine and a new relationship with the U.S.

Hegseth has offered nothing in public, but the instructions were issued before last Friday’s Oval Office dustup.

The scope and duration of the order is not clear, but as the Times’ reporting observes:

“(Retaining) access to major Russian networks for espionage purposes is critical to understanding Mr. Putin’s intentions as he enters negotiations, and to tracking the arguments within Russia about what conditions to insist upon and what could be given up.”

On the other hand, such pauses during sensitive diplomatic negotiations can be a tool in order to keep the dialogue on track.

At the same time, we have seen countless stories of how Russia has sought to penetrate U.S. networks, and over the past year, ransomware attacks on American hospitals, infrastructure and cities have ramped up, many emanating from Russia.

--The Pentagon is sending about 3,000 additional troops to the southwestern border, rushing to comply with Mr. Trump’s order to increase the military’s role in stemming the flow of migrants into the United States.  The reinforcements announced on Saturday would bring the total number of active-duty troops on the border to about 9,000, Defense Department officials said.

--The top FBI agent in New York was ousted Monday, saying he wasn’t given any explanation for the decision from Washington.

James Dennehy, a Marine Corps veteran who joined the bureau after the Sept. 11 attacks, announced his forced resignation in a letter to staffers at the FBI’s New York Field Office.

His departure marks the latest in a recent exodus from the bureau under the Trump administration.

Dennehy had a high-profile battle with acting Deputy Attorney General Emil Bove last month, penning a defiant email to staffers urging them to “dig in” after officials tasked with investigating the Jan. 6 riots at the U.S. Capitol were forced out of their roles.

“Today, we find ourselves in the middle of a battle of our own, as good people are being walked out of the FBI and others are being targeted because they did their jobs in accordance with the law and FBI policy,” the email read in part.

Dennehy had also angered Attorney General Pam Bondi by what she claimed was the New York office’s failure to turn over all the investigative files related to Jeffrey Epstein.  Bondi provided no evidence to back up her assertion.

The forced departure of Dennehy, a highly respected leader, further rattles an organization already under siege.

--Last Sunday in an interview on Fox News, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick renewed concerns that the new administration could seek to interfere with federal statistics – especially if they start to show that the economy is slipping into a recession.  Lutnick suggested that he planned to change the way the government reports data on gross domestic product in order to remove the impact of government spending.

“You know that governments historically have messed with GDP,” he said.  “They count government spending as part of GDP. So I’m going to separate those two and make it transparent.”

The common definition of GDP hasn’t changed, internationally, for decades.  It tallies consumer spending, private-sector investment, net exports, and government investment and spending to arrive at a broad measure of all goods and services produced in a country.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics, which produces the reports, is part of Lutnick’s department.

I have zero doubt that the administration will try in some fashion to cook the books.  Aside from the privacy issue, that is my biggest concern with Elon Musk and his DOGE squad.

“The implication is that it is OK to manipulate economic data for political gain,” said David Wilcox, a fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and director of U.S. economic research at Bloomberg Economics, who used to be the director of research statistics at the Federal Reserve.

To state the obvious, cooking the books, which would be found out, would be a catastrophe for the financial markets and global confidence.

--The IRS is drafting plans to cut its workforce by as much as half through a mix of layoffs, attrition and incentivized buyouts, according to the Associated Press, citing sources familiar with the situation.

A reduction in force of tens of thousands of employees would render the IRS “dysfunctional,” said John Koskinen, a former IRS commissioner.

The federal tax collector employs roughly 90,000 workers total across the United States, according to the latest IRS data.  Already, roughly 7,000 probationary IRS employees with roughly one year or less of service were laid off from the organization in February.

--The Department of Veterans Affairs is planning an “aggressive” reorganization that includes cutting 80,000 jobs from the sprawling agency that provides health care for retired military members, according to an internal memo obtained by the AP.  [Other reports have the total at 70,000.]

More than 25% of the VA’s workforce are veterans themselves.

--In his address to Congress, President Trump made the statement: “1.3 million people from ages 150 to 159, and over 130,000 people, according to the Social Security databases, are age over 160 years old.”

Last year, a report from the Social Security Administration’s inspector general’s office found that the agency had issued $71.8 billion in improper payments from fiscal years 2015 to 2022.

That figure represents about 0.84 percent of $8.6 trillion in benefits paid over that time.  A report released in November 2021 estimated that the agency had made $298 million in payments to about 24,000 deceased beneficiaries.  It urged the agency to improve the timeliness and accuracy of the death data.

The inspector general’s office also reported in 2023 that there were 18.9 million people born in1920 or earlier with Social Security numbers but for whom there was no death information in the electronic file that the agency uses to identify each person. About 44,000 of those people were receiving Social Security benefits. The Census Bureau estimated that there were about 86,000 people in the United States older than 100.

--The Supreme Court on Wednesday rejected President Trump’s emergency request to freeze nearly $2 billion in foreign aid as part of his efforts to slash government spending and one of his moves on his first day in office that thwarted congressional appropriations for the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).

The court’s brief order was unsigned, which is typical when the justices act on emergency applications. It said only that the trial judge, who had ordered the government to resume payments, “should clarify what obligations the government must fulfill.”

Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Amy Coney Barrett joined the three liberal justices in a 5-4 vote.

--Trump issued an executive order directing his Secretary of Education, Linda McMahon, to dismantle the Department of Education, but he lacks the full authority to close the agency.  Most of its spending is ordered by Congress and thus such a move would require congressional approval.

“The Department of Education’s main functions can, and should, be returned to the States,” the order says.

Among the Education Department’s functions is underwriting the loans that enable millions of people each year to attend college and graduate school.  Additionally, the agency manages the approximately $1.6 trillion student loan portfolio.

--Thursday, President Trump directed Cabinet members to be more involved in deciding which government workers are shed, rather than waiting for directives from Elon Musk, a subtle but important shift in the overhaul of the federal workforce that the president and Musk have championed.

There have been growing tensions between Trump’s top political officials, who often had little or no foreknowledge of the actions taken by DOGE, and Musk, who has touted his powers to make sweeping cuts across the government.

“I don’t want to see a big cut where a lot of good people are cut,” Trump said after the meeting, from the Oval Office.  He added, “Elon and the group are going to be watching them, and if they can cut, it’s better.  And if they don’t cut, then Elon will do the cutting.”

--Hundreds of people gathered on Saturday at national parks from California to Maine to protest the administration’s firing of at least 1,000 National Park Service employees last month.

The cutbacks, as Americans flood the national parks this summer, will be felt and the anger will grow.  This is a big, big political loser for the administration.  They should wise up quickly.

Around 325 million people visit the national parks annually, while the national forests see 159 million each year.

--Trump on Truth Social, Tuesday: “All Federal Funding will STOP for any College, School, or University that allows illegal protests. Agitators will be imprisoned/or permanently sent back to the country from which they came. American students will be permanently expelled or, depending on the crime, arrested.  NO MASKS!  Thank you for your attention to this matter.”

This afternoon, the administration announced it was slashing $400 million in contracts and grants to Columbia University for the school’s failure to protect Jewish students.

--The line that drew the most laughs in Trump’s address to Congress was about “unelected bureaucrats” with Elon Musk in attendance.

At one point, Trump declared: “The days of rule by unelected bureaucrats are over!”

---

Wall Street and the Economy

On the subject of tariffs, Warren Buffett, in a sit-down interview with CBS News’ Norah O’Donnell that aired Sunday, said: “Tariffs are actually – we’ve had a lot of experience with them – they’re an act of war, to some degree.”

Buffett said tariffs over time serve as a tax on goods and could raise prices for consumers.

“The Tooth Fairy doesn’t pay ‘em!” Buffett said.

The Oracle of Omaha said it’s critical to ask, “And then what?” when thinking about the implications of tariffs and who will bear the cost.

“You always have to ask that question in economics: Always say, ‘And then what?’” Buffett said.

He didn’t elaborate on why tariffs are an act of war.

New York Fed President John Williams said Tuesday that he is taking into consideration President Trump’s tariff threats in his forecast of the economy and expects higher prices as a result relatively soon.

In an appearance at a Bloomberg event, Williams said he had been withholding judgment until he knew Trump would make good on his tariffs promise.

“I do factor in some effects of tariffs now on inflation, on prices, because I think we will see some of those effects later this year, not yet, but maybe later this year,” he said.

Williams said he believes tariffs on consumer goods do feed into import prices, which filters into the prices that consumers pay – and that happens “relatively soon.”

Tariffs on intermediate inputs, essentially the things that companies use to make other things, tend to pass through more gradually and can last a little bit longer in terms of effects, he said.

“Based on history what we’ve seen is a pretty high pass through of tariffs,” Williams said.

Williams said it’s still hard to read the “tea leaves” on how tariffs will ultimately shape sentiment, but it’s something else he’ll be watching carefully as to what extent is that affecting consumer and business confidence.

The latest survey on layoffs from U.S.-based employers last month was 172,017, a 103% increase from January and the highest February total since 2009, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas’s latest monthly jobs report released Thursday.

It’s the 12th highest monthly total in the 32 years Challenger has been tracking job cuts.  The 11 others (four came during the Covid-19 pandemic) all occurred when the U.S. was in a recession, Challenger data shows.

By Challenger’s count, there were 62,242 announced cuts across 17 federal agencies in February, up from 151 in February 2024.

The DOGE effect was not limited to the public sector: Downstream impacts, such as the loss of funding for private nonprofits, led to another 894 cuts, according to the report.

Which leads me to Friday’s jobs report for February, courtesy of the Labor Department, and it was solid, 151,000* vs. consensus of 160,000, with January revised down from 143,000 to 125,000.  The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1%, and average hourly wages rose 0.3%, and 4.0% from a year ago.  No big surprises, and that was good.

*The federal workforce cuts are not really reflected in this report but will be in future ones.

In other economic data points during the week, we had ISM readings on manufacturing for February, 50.3 (50 the dividing line between growth and contraction), which was vs. 50.9 prior, and for services, 53.5.

January factory orders rose 1.7%, and construction spending in the month fell 0.2%.

Next week, more key inflation data...consumer and producer prices.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow barometer for the first quarter is at -2.4%.  A lot of detractors are blasting the figure, but I’ve proven to you how accurate this metric usually is, including the last two quarters.  The numbers are volatile.  The figure could still rise into positive territory (tons of data for Q1 to come), but it will indeed be interesting to see how the Trump administration reacts if the final print is something like just 1.0% growth, or worse.

Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is down to 6.63%, after hitting 7.04% on Jan. 16.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell then gave a speech in New York Friday afternoon and reiterated the central bank is not in a hurry to cut interest rates as policy uncertainty continues to weigh on markets and cloud the outlook for the economy.

“As we parse the incoming information, we are focused on separating the signal from the noise as the outlook evolves,” Powell said.  “We do not need to be in a hurry, and are well positioned to wait for greater clarity.”

As for the Trump administration’s policy chaos, Powell said: “The new administration is in the process of implementing significant policy changes in four distinct areas: trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation.  It is the net effect of these policy changes that will matter for the economy and for the path of monetary policy.”

Powell’s words soothed the market and equities, down earlier today, finished up.

Europe and Asia

We had the February PMI readings for the eurozone, courtesy of S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank.  Manufacturing came in at 47.6, a 24-month high.  The service sector reading was 50.6, down from 51.3.

Germany: manufacturing 46.5 (25-mo. high), services 51.1
France: mfg. 45.8, services 45.3
Italy: mfg. 47.4, services 53.0
Spain: mfg. 49.7, services 56.2
Ireland: mfg. 51.9, services 53.2
Netherlands: mfg. 50.0

UK: mfg. 46.9, services 51.0

Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank:

“The Eurozone economy has barely grown for two months in a row now, as the mild growth in the services sector is almost fully eaten up by the recession in the manufacturing sector.  The good news is that the downturn in the manufacturing sector is softening, which could pave the way for a recovery of the whole economy....

“There is a big contrast in service sector performance between Germany and France. Germany’s services sector is growing at a moderate pace while in France, activity is shrinking rapidly and much faster than during the months before.  This may be the result of an unsolved political crisis in France, while in Germany the elections may raise hope for a stable government to be formed soon.”

Separately, we had another inflation reading for the EA20, a flash estimate for February, 2.4%, down from January’s 2.5% on headline. Ex-food and energy, 2.6% vs. 2.7% prior...so good news for the ECB.

Headline inflation:

Germany 2.8%, France 0.9% (down from January’s 1.8%), Italy 1.7%, Spain 2.9%, Ireland 1.3%, Netherlands 3.5%, Greece 3.0%. [Eurostat]

On the unemployment front, the January rate was 6.2% across the euro area, down from 6.5% a year earlier.

Germany 3.5%, France 7.3%, Italy 6.3%, Spain 10.4%, Ireland 4.0%, Netherlands 3.8%. [Eurostat]

Industrial producer prices for January increased 0.8% over December, and 1.8% year-over-year in the eurozone.  [Eurostat]

Retail trade (sales) in the EA20 for January fell 0.3% over December, up 1.5% from a year ago. [Eurostat]

Germany: Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz outlined a sweeping fiscal overhaul that could boost the European economy. 

Bond yields surged, the euro rose to a four-month high, and stocks rallied after Merz’s Christian Democratic-led bloc and the rival Social Democrats said they were speeding ahead with plans to boost investment rather than wait out a months-long process to form a governing coalition.  As well as a 500 billion euro ($533 billion) special fund for infrastructure, they proposed defense spending over 1% of GDP would be exempt from the country’s constitutional borrowing limits, known as the debt brake.

The yield on the 10-year bund rose as much as 30 basis points to 2.79% on Tuesday, the biggest jump since 1990, and rose further the rest of the week to 2.83%, up from last Friday’s 2.40%.  [The yield on the French 10-year rose from 3.14% to 3.55% during the week; Italy’s from 3.54% to 3.96%.]

But Merz faces pressure from within his own party, as many MPs, re-elected 10 days previously on a promise to leave borrowing rules untouched, aired their frustration over the party’s political credibility.

The European Central Bank on Thursday then cut interest rates again to boost growth, reducing its key lending rate to 2.5% from 2.75%, widening a gap in benchmark borrowing costs with the Federal Reserve.  It was the sixth cut in seven meetings.

Interest rates are “becoming meaningfully less restrictive,” the ECB said, as earlier rate cuts “are making new borrowing less expensive for firms and households and loan growth is picking up.”

But the ECB’s move was against the action taken by Germany. The large spending package should, if approved, bolster growth in Europe and push up inflation over time, which would limit the need for lower rates from the ECB.

But the tariff war threatens to slow the continent’s growth while the impact on inflation is less clear.

At the meeting, the ECB lowered its forecast for eurozone growth to 0.9% this year and 1.2% next year.

ECB President Christine Lagarde, acknowledging the whirlwind pace of economic and political change taking place in Europe, said: “We have not been spared recent developments in the last few hours and days.”

Lagarde said policymakers would be “attentive” and “vigilant” to those spending plans (such as in Germany) to determine the effect on inflation.

“We have risks all over, uncertainty all over,” Lagarde said in her post-meeting news conference in Frankfurt.

Turning to Asia...China...At the “two sessions” annual top legislative/top advisory body meeting in Beijing, the government set a forceful economic growth goal of about 5% for 2025 and increased the target for the budget deficit, raising expectations for officials to unleash more stimulus; Premier Li Qiang announcing the targets Wednesday morning in delivering the government’s annual report to the national parliament.  It’s the third straight year China has set a lofty growth target and most expect it will be difficult to attain.

China’s military expenditures will rise by 7.2 percent in 2025 – the same as the increase for the last two years.  And the government raised its deficit ratio to around 4 percent.

The official manufacturing/services PMIs were released for February, 50.2 vs. 49.1 in January for the former, 50.4 vs. 50.2 prior for the latter.

The private Caixin manufacturing figure for February was 50.8 vs. 50.1, and 51.4 on services.

Due to the changing date for the Lunar New Year holiday, China combines a lot of their key numbers for January and February, and on the export front for the two months, they rose just 2.3% from a year ago, well below expectations, with imports down 8.4% for the two months.

Exports had surged 10.7% in December, reflecting escalating trade tensions with the U.S., and looming tariffs.

Japan reported the February manufacturing PMI was 49.0, services a solid 53.7.

South Korea’s manufacturing PMI for February was 49.9, Taiwan’s 51.5.

Street Bytes

--Between the tariff turmoil and growth scare, it was an ugly week for the stock market; the Dow Jones falling 2.4% to 42801, the S&P 500 3.1% and Nasdaq 3.5%.  Nasdaq, Thursday, hit correction mode, down 10.4% from its high, with a little rally Friday.

--U.S. Treasury Yields

6-mo. 4.24%  2-yr. 3.99%  10-yr. 4.31%  30-yr. 4.61%

The 10-year yield fell all the way to 4.14% early in the week (after hitting 4.78% Jan. 10) on the Trump tariff chaos, but moved back up to 4.31% at week’s end, up 8 basis points on the week.

--Oil fell sharply this week to its lowest level since September, below $66 on Wednesday.  The downward action started after OPEC+ announced it was restarting some stalled production, which was a bit of a surprise that threatened to deepen a projected global surplus of crude. OPEC+ had been expected to once again push back the restart amid projections for a supply surplus later this year and a dim outlook for energy demand in both the U.S. and China, the world’s two largest consumers of crude.

West Texas Intermediate ended the week at $67.00.

--Related to the above, Aramco plans to trim the world’s biggest dividend, lowering a key source of funds for Saudi Arabia’s budget while relieving stress on its own finances.

Saudi Aramco expects the total payout to be about $85 billion in 2025, compared with $124 billion last year, it said in a statement Tuesday.

The company had flipped into a net-debt position recently, a sharp turnaround from the over $27 billion in net cash a year ago.  Last year, the total dividend was almost $40 billion higher than free cash flow – the money left over from operations after accounting for investments and expenses.

Brent is averaging less than $77 a barrel this year (this figure will come down further after this week’s price action), far below the more than $90 Saudi Arabia needs to balance its budget.

--A consortium of investors led by BlackRock has agreed to buy majority stakes in ports on both sides of the Panama Canal from Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison for $22.8 billion, the companies said Tuesday.

BlackRock, its new infrastructure arm Global Infrastructure Partners, and Geneva-based Terminal Investment agreed to acquire a 90% interest in Panama Ports.  The company owns and operates the ports of Balboa and Cristobal in Panama, along with CK Hutchison’s controlling interest in 43 other ports in 23 countries.

In acquiring GIP last year, CEO Larry Fink bet that private infrastructure assets would help drive his firm’s next wave of growth. GIP operates energy, transportation, and waste and water companies around the world, along with London Gatwick Airport, U.S. natural-gas pipelines and data centers.

--Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the world’s top producer of AI chips, plans to invest an additional $100 billion in U.S. plants that will boost its chip output on American soil and support President Trump’s goal of increasing domestic manufacturing.

TSMC CEO C.C. Wei joined Trump at the White House on Monday to unveil the company’s vision for expanding a U.S. footprint that got its start in 2020 during the president’s first term in office.  Trump said the move means “the most powerful AI chips in the world will be made right here in America.”

“Without the semiconductors, there is no economy powering everything from AI to automobiles to advanced manufacturing,” Trump said.

The spending adds to $65 billion in planned TSMC investments in the U.S. and would eventually bring its U.S. presence to a total of five plants: three for advance wafer fabrication and two for advanced packaging. 

Companies including Apple, OpenAI and Meta Platforms Inc. have pledged more than $1 trillion in spending, though the scope of those commitments remains unclear, and some investments may include previously planned spending.

--Sales and profits slipped for Target during the crucial holiday quarter as customers held back on spending and the company said there will be “meaningful pressure” on its profits to start the year because of tariffs and other costs.

The retailer did beat most estimates, however, the company reporting net income of $1.1 billion, or $2.41 per share, far better than the $2.26 the Street was expecting, but the profit is down from the $1.38 billion the company reported in the same period last year.

Sales fell to $30.91 billion from $31.9bn, but that also beat estimates.  Comparable sales for the quarter rose 1.5%.

Target forecast full-year comp sales below estimates and said uncertainty around tariffs as well as consumer spending would weigh on first-quarter profits.

The retailer joined Walmart in raising caution about its expectations for the year as sticky inflation and tariffs on imports could temper demand, particularly for non-essentials like home furnishings and electronics that makes up more than two-thirds of Target’s sales.

The company expects comparable sales to be about flat in the year through January 2026, compared with analysts’ average estimate of 1.9% growth.  It expects full-year earnings of $8.80 to $9.80 per share, in-line with consensus at $9.30.  But Target said the annual forecast does not consider any impact from tariffs.

“The company expects to see meaningful year-over-year profit pressure in its first quarter,” it said, attributing the impact to tariff uncertainty, as well as weak demand for apparel and other discretionary products during February.

The shares fell 3% in response to the report.

--Best Buy posted a surprise rise in quarterly comparable sales for the holiday shopping season, as customers took advantage of promotions to snap up high-end appliances and gaming consoles.

Shoppers, pressured by elevated borrowing costs, flocked to stores and online for big purchases during heavy discounting periods such as the critical holiday season.

“As we enter FY26, we believe consumer behavior will be largely similar to last year – remaining resilient but still dealing with high inflation that is driving expenses up across their lives, making them value focused and thoughtful about big ticket purchases,” Best Buy CFO Matt Bilunas said.

The top U.S. electronics retailer’s fourth-quarter comp sales rose 0.5%, snapping 12 straight quarters of declines.  Analysts had expected a 1.3% decline.

Fiscal fourth-quarter net income came in at $117 million, with adjusted earnings of $2.58 per share, the Street at $2.40.

Revenue of $13.95 billion in the period also exceeded consensus of $13.66 billion.

Best Buy expects full-year earnings in the range of $6.20 to $6.60 per share, with revenue in the range of $41.4 billion to $42.2 billion.

But the shares fell hard, 13%, as the company warned of the possibility of higher prices for shoppers as new duties came into force on Tuesday.

China remains the number one and Mexico the number two source for products that Best Buy sells, CEO Corie Barry said in the earnings call with analysts Tuesday morning.

--Air France-KLM reported $427.3 million in operating profit for the last quarter of 2024, compared with analyst expectations for less than half that and a loss last year.   The shares soared 30%!

The improved profit was driven by strong passenger and cargo pricing.  And the company guided higher.

--TSA checkpoint numbers vs. 2024

3/6...117 percent of 2024 levels
3/5...108
3/4...78
3/3...92
3/2...122
3/1...83
2/28...123
2/27...133

--Tesla’s registrations in Germany last month plummeted 76% to 1,429 cars, according to the German Federal Motor Transport Authority.  Tesla’s showing was in stark contrast with overall electric vehicle registrations, which jumped 31% in February.

Tesla shares, after hitting a high of $488 on Dec. 18, closed the week at $262.

--Broadcom stock surged late Thursday after the company posted better-than-expected earnings.  The strong results from the semiconductor maker could provide some relief to the beaten-down AI trade.  The chipmaker said record first-quarter revenue was driven by AI semiconductor solutions and infrastructure software, giving better than expected guidance for the current quarter.

For its fiscal first quarter ending January, Broadcom reported revenue of $14.92 billion, up 25% from a year earlier, and adjusted earnings of $1.60 a share, both beating expectations.  For the current quarter, it sees revenue of $14.9 billion.

For Q1, AI revenue was up 77% from a year earlier, to $4.1 billion, and infrastructure software revenue rose 47% to $6.7 billion.

BCOM’s semiconductors are in a number of categories, including networking, broadband, server storage, wireless, and industrial. Some of the company’s chips can be used for generative-AI applications.

--Hewlett Packard Enterprises said it would cut about 2,500 jobs, or 5% of its global workforce, in a cost-reduction program that came as the company expects its fiscal 2025 profit to be dragged down in part by tariffs.

The server and cloud software company’s board on Thursday approved a cost-reduction program that is expected to deliver $350 million in savings by fiscal 2027.

--Walgreens Boots Alliance finalized a deal with private-equity firm Sycamore Partners that would take the struggling drugstore chain off the public market for around $10 billion, according to people familiar with the matter, apparently at between $11.30 a share and $11.40 a share in cash.

Sycamore is expected to maintain the core U.S. retail business and sell off or take public the other parts of the company, according to reports.

A take-private transaction would be a landmark moment for a historic American company that dates back more than 120 years and was once known for its ubiquity on street corners around the country and for inventing the malted milkshake.  Walgreens shares have been public since 1927.

--Kroger, the biggest U.S. supermarket chain by sales, said Monday that CEO Rodney McMullen resigned from the company following a board investigation into his personal conduct, ending a more than four-decade career at the company.

Kroger said that while the conduct was unrelated to the company’s business, it was inconsistent with its ethics policy.  Lead independent director Ronald Sargent will serve as chairman and interim CEO while the company searches for a permanent replacement for McMullen.

McMullen’s ouster follows Kroger’s failed $20 billion takeover of smaller rival Albertsons, which aimed to unite the two largest pure-play supermarket operators in the biggest grocery deal ever.  The deal was blocked by a federal judge in Oregon in December.

McMullen joined the company as a part-time stock clerk in 1978.  He earned a master’s degree in accounting and spent years climbing Kroger’s ranks.  He had served as CEO since 2014 and was named chairman in 2015.

Kroger then announced earnings for the quarter on Thursday, with sales falling 7% to $34 billion, below what the Street expected.  It posted a profit of $634 million for the three months ending Feb. 1, down from $736 million the same period a year ago.

KR said its identical sales, ex-fuel and the effects of store openings and closings, rose 2.4% for the period.

This year, the company expects adjusted earnings between $4.60 and $4.80 a share, vs. the recently completed fiscal year profit of $4.47 per share.

Thursday, the company shared no further details on Rodney McMullen’s departure.

--Shares of Campbell’s Company fell a bit after the company lowered its full-year fiscal 2025 guidance, citing weaker-than-expected performance in its snacking segment.

“Second quarter earnings were in line with our expectations despite the dynamic operating environment,” said Mick Beekhuizen, Campbell’s President and CEO.  “Given the softness in some of our snacking categories, the anticipated sequential top-line improvement did not materialize during the quarter, and we now have a more muted second half expectation.”

For the second fiscal quarter ended January 26, net sales rose 9% year-over-year to $2.7 billion, driven by the Sovos Brands acquisition.  However, organic net sales declined 2%.  Adjusted EPS fell 8% to $0.74.

Campbell revised its full-year fiscal 2025 EPS outlook to a range of $2.95-$3.05, down from its prior estimate of $3.12-$3.22. Analysts had expected $3.12. 

The company now expects net sales growth of 6%-8%, down from the previous 9%-11% range.

Despite cost savings initiatives,  higher net interest expenses and weaker snacking category performance led to the downward revision, with the company acknowledging continued uncertainty in the broader consumer environment.

--Macy’s joined a growing list of retailers issuing weak outlooks as it battles headwinds such as a cautious consumer and tariffs.

The department store chain reported Thursday that fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share came in at $1.80, beating consensus of $1.54. But same store sales only grew 0.2% and missed the Street’s 1.2% growth outlook.

CEO Tony Spring said on the company’s earnings call that Macy’s is “taking a prudent approach to our outlook reflecting the external uncertainties that both we and the consumer are facing.”

For 2025, Macy’s projects revenue of $21 billion to $21.4 billion, below 2024’s $22.39 billion and missing current estimates of $21.66 billion.  Adjusted earnings also came in below consensus.

But the shares hung in there and were largely unchanged.

--Bitcoin popped more than 10% on Sunday, after President Trump said it would be part of a Crypto Strategic Reserve, along with a handful of other digital currencies.

Although he didn’t mention Bitcoin by name, he did name smaller digital assets whose prices also spiked.

In the original post on Truth Social, Trump said “I will make sure the U.S. is the Crypto Capital of the World.”

But after running up to about $95,000 following last week’s plunge below $80,000, Bitcoin finished the week (4:00 PM ET) at $87,094.

--The Walt Disney Co. is reportedly laying off around 200 employees, or just under 6% of the combined staff at its ABC News Group and Disney Entertainment Networks units; the layoffs taking place this week.

Disney, like the rest of the entertainment industry, is grappling with cord-cutting and the decline of cable networks’ audience while its streaming platform has seen quarter-over-quarter declines in subscribers.

The political and data-driven news site 538 is being cut, all fifteen employees. 

--The Academy Awards drew 18 million viewers on Sunday, ABC said, citing Nielsen data. That is an 8 percent drop from the 19.5 million who watched last year.

The audience decline ends a three-year streak when Oscar ratings had been on the rise.

--President Trump’s address to Congress Tuesday drew an estimated 36.6 million viewers, reported Nielsen.  The figure was lower than in any of Trump’s first four addresses to Congress in his previous administration.

Former President Clinton holds the record, 66.9 million viewers in 1993.

Only 5.7% of the viewers watching Trump were aged 18-34.  70.7% were aged 55 and older.

--NBC News announced that Tom Llamas has been tapped to take over for Lester Holt in the “Nightly News” anchor chair when Holt steps down this summer.

Good choice, wrote the long-time viewer of NBC “Nightly News,” and NBC local...since I was a kid.

Foreign Affairs, cont’d....

Russia-Ukraine: Reaction in Ukraine to the Oval Office disaster...

“The initial reaction was that of shock,” said opposition MP Inna Sovsun.  “It was difficult to watch a president who’s been a victim of Russian aggression being attacked by the leader of the free world.  It’s painful.

“We need to find stronger allies in Europe and Canada, Australia and Japan, who’ve all been supporting us,” argues Sovsun.

“It’s important to find the right mediator,” she says. “Someone Trump can recognize, but someone we trust too. Someone like Georgia Meloni of Italy.

“Under no circumstances should we agree to calls for the president (Zelensky) to resign, and I’m saying that as an opposition MP. That defies the very idea of democracy.” [BBC News]

General Oleksandr Syrskyi, head of the Ukrainian armed forces, posted his support for the president on X, saying the military was “with the Supreme Commander-in-Chief.”

Petro Poroshenko, Ukraine’s former president and the country’s main opposition leader, also acknowledged the need to pull together.  “People are waiting for me to criticize Zelensky, but no, I won’t do that as it’s not what the country needs right now,” he said.  “The only thing that Ukraine needs now is unity.”

Zelensky’s poll numbers have been rising, with the percentage who trust him in Ukraine up to 65% from 57% in January, according to a Feb. 20-21 survey by the Rating Group agency.  That was surpassed only by trust for former top military commander Valerii Zaluzhnyi, now Ukraine’s ambassador to the UK, which held steady at 76%.

Zaluzhnyi, known as the “Iron General,” hasn’t ruled out running in an election against Zelensky, but on Saturday, he struck a tone of unity.

“This war is testing us for resilience and bravery. Additionally it shows who our true friends are,” Zaluzhnyi said on Telegram.  “It will be difficult, but together we will overcome everything.” [Bloomberg]

Zaluzhnyi then said Thursday that the U.S. is “destroying” the world’s established order.  Breaking with a penchant to keep a low profile, the general accused the White House of jeopardizing the “unity of the Western world” and warned that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization “may cease to exist.”

“It is obvious that Washington’s non-recognition of the Russian Federation’s aggression is also a new challenge – not only for Ukraine, but also for Europe,” Zaluzhnyi told a security conference in London.

“Not only Russia and the axis of evil are trying to destroy the world order, but the United States is actually destroying it completely,” the ambassador said.

The comments could undercut Zelensky’s effort to ease tensions with the Trump administration.

--In a Reuters/Ipsos poll, 70% of Americans disagree with Trump’s view that Ukraine is more to blame than Russia for Putin’s invasion, and just 46% say the U.S. “should get a share of Ukraine’s minerals.”

--France’s prime minister, Francois Bayrou, a close ally of President Macron, decried the U.S. pause on providing military aid to Ukraine as “unbearable” on Tuesday, describing it as tantamount to abandoning Ukrainians and allowing for a possible victory by Russia.

“The word ‘suspension’ fools no one,” Bayrou said, addressing French senators.  “The suspension in war (aid) to an aggressed country signifies that the aggressed country is being abandoned and that one accepts – or hopes – that its aggressor wins,” he said.  “It’s obviously unbearable.”

Bayrou said that Ukraine needs to keep fighting for its very survival.

“If Russia stops fighting, the war stops.  If Ukraine stops fighting, Ukraine disappears,” he said.

--Russian officials and lawmakers on Thursday then derided President Macron for saying that Russia threatened Europe and cautioned that such talk could lead the West towards the abyss of a new world war.

Macron said in an address to the nation on Wednesday that Russia was “a threat for France and Europe,” that the Ukraine war was already a “global conflict” and that he would open a debate about extending the French nuclear umbrella to allies in Europe.

“Such an erroneous analysis leads to fatal errors,” said Konstantin Kosachev, a senior Russian senator, who said Macron had mistaken Russia’s reaction to the enlargement and aggression of the U.S.-led military alliance towards Russia.

“Macron maniacally imposes on his citizens, allies and the entire world a completely false concept of what is happening – ‘the Russians are coming!’  Such false conclusions and false suggestions lead to the abyss.”

Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk said his country “must” pursue nuclear weapons, addressing lawmakers Friday in Warsaw.  “Poland must pursue the most advanced capabilities, including nuclear and modern unconventional weapons,” Tusk said.  “This is a serious race – a race for security, not a war.” 

Poland is also looking to finalize a plan by year end to have every adult man in the country undergo military training.  Tusk said he wants “to ensure a well-trained reserve force is ready for potential threats.”

France, by the way, has an estimated 290 nuclear warheads, the UK 225.

--A Russian missile slammed into a hotel before dawn on Thursday in the hometown of President Zelensky, Kryvyi Rih, in central Ukraine, killing at least four people and injuring more than 30 others, Ukrainian authorities said.

“Just before the attack, volunteers from a humanitarian organization – citizens of Ukraine, the United States and the United Kingdom – had checked into the hotel,” Zelensky said in a statement.  “They survived because they managed to get down from their rooms in time.  Unfortunately, four people were killed in this attack.”

“There must be no pause in the pressure on Russia to stop this war and terror against life,” he said.

In total, the Ukrainian Air Force reported, Russia launched two ballistic missiles and 112 drones.  Most of the drones were destroyed, but the Air Force didn’t say if the two missiles had been downed.

The pause in American military assistance could leave Ukrainians short of the sophisticated interceptor missiles that have helped provide a blanket of protection over the capital, Kyiv, and other cities.

--Friday, Russian forces targeted Ukraine’s energy and gas infrastructure in their latest drone and missile attack, killing two and injuring at least 18.  Some 67 missiles and 194 drones were used in the attack.

“Once again, energy and gas infrastructure in various regions of Ukraine has come under massive missile and drone fire,” minister for energy German Galushchenko said in a statement on Facebook.

“Wherever possible, rescuers and power engineers are working to eliminate the consequences.  All necessary measures are being taken to stabilize power and gas supplies,” he said.

Notably, French Mirage jets “successfully intercepted Russian cruise missiles,” President Zelensky said, adding a note of thanks to Paris.  The jets arrived just last month.

--George Will / Washington Post

“From the French word ‘petite,’ meaning ‘small,’ comes the English word ‘petty,’ which describes the Trump administration.  This is greatness as restored by the midgets of MAGA:

“Secretary of State Marco Rubio was in the room when the U.S. foreign policy of 80 years was jettisoned, and he was thrilled. This small occupant of an office once held by big people (from Thomas Jefferson, John Marshall, James Madison, James Monroe, John Quincy Adams, Henry Clay, Martin Van Buren, and Daniel Webster to George Marshall, Dean Acheson, and Henry Kissinger), swooned on X: ‘Thank you @POTUS for standing up for America in a way that no President has ever had the courage to do before.’

“Do Rubio’s muscles cramp during prolonged genuflections?  He is, however, right in his fashion: No president has ever before ‘stood up for America’ this way, by turning U.S. foreign policy 180 degrees, away from supporting democracies toward rewarding war criminals.  (Nine days before Donald Trump’s Oval Office berating of Ukraine’s president, the Financial Times website presented video of Russians murdering unresisting Ukrainian prisoners of war.)  In a future X post, Rubio might elaborate on how courage featured in this reversal.  Or in Trump’s pique about what he considers Ukraine’s insufficiently reiterated gratitude for the assistance Ukraine received from the Biden administration.

“So smitten is Trump with Vladimir Putin (‘genius’), he cannot fathom that the Russian leader surely considers him a weakling.  Putin knows that Trump knows, but is too servile to say, who invaded whom on Feb. 24, 2022.”

Israel-Gaza: Israel halted the entry of all goods and humanitarian aid into Gaza.  The move was meant to force Hamas into accepting a temporary extension of the ceasefire after the first phase ended on Saturday. The halt makes the fate of the remaining hostages uncertain, and is likely to worsen conditions for Gaza’s roughly two million inhabitants.  Israel said the restrictions would not apply to water.

Hours before the aid halt, Israel had proposed extending the ceasefire seven weeks (to get through the Muslim holy month of Ramadan and the Jewish festival of Passover), during which Hamas would release half the remaining living hostages and the remains of half the deceased ones.  Hamas rejected this, referring to the aid halt as “cheap blackmail,” but said it was still willing to negotiate the second stage of the deal.

“If Hamas keeps up its recalcitrance, there will be further consequences,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office earlier warned in a statement.

A Hamas official, Mahmoud Mardawi, said in a statement: “The only path to regional stability and the return of the prisoners is the full implementation of the agreement, starting with the second phase, which includes a permanent ceasefire, a complete withdrawal, reconstruction, and the release of prisoners under a mutually agreed-upon deal.  This is our firm stance.”

Ramadan began last weekend and concludes on March 30. Passover is from April 12 to April 20.

Under a U.S. proposal, Israel has a U.S.-guaranteed right to resume its Gaza offensive after 42 days “if it deems the negotiations ineffective,” Netanyahu’s office said in a statement.

The U.S. is expediting the delivery of about $4 billion in military aid to Israel.

About two dozen of the hostages remaining in Gaza are believed to be still alive.

President Trump weighed in with a post on Truth Social, Wednesday:

“ ‘Shalom Hamas’ means Hello and Goodbye – You can choose.  Release all of the Hostages now, not later, and immediately return all of the dead bodies of the people you murdered, or it is OVER for you.  Only sick and twisted people keep bodies, and you are sick and twisted!  I am sending Israel everything it needs to finish the job, not a single Hamas member will be safe if you don’t do as I say.  I have just met with your former Hostages whose lives you have destroyed.  This is your last warning!... RELEASE THE HOSTAGES NOW, OR THERE WILL BE HELL TO PAY LATER!”

--Arab leaders endorsed Egypt’s plan to rebuild Gaza as an alternative to Trump’s proposal of hotels, condos and belly dancers.

The $53 billion plan’s endorsement at a summit in Cairo amounted to a rejection of Trump’s proposal.

Egypt’s plan foresees rebuilding Gaza by 2030 without removing its population.  The first phase calls for starting the removal of unexploded ordnance and clearing more than 50 million tons of rubble left by Israel’s bombardment and military offensives.  Arab League chief Ahmed Aboul Gheit said the summit’s final communique calls on the UN Security Council to deploy an international peacekeeping force in Gaza and the occupied West Bank.

According to a 112-page draft of the plan, hundreds of thousands of temporary housing units would be set up for Gaza’s population while reconstruction takes place.  Rubble would be recycled, with some of it used as infill to expand land on Gaza’s Mediterranean coast.    In the following years, the plan envisages completely reshaping the strip. It also calls for the opening of an airport, a fishing port and a commercial port.  Hamas would cede power to an interim administration of political independents until a reformed Palestinian Authority can assume control.

Syria/Turkey:  Kurdish militants who have waged a 40-year insurgency in Turkey declared a ceasefire on Saturday in what could mark a significant boost to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government, two days after their imprisoned leader, Abdullah Ocalan, called for the group to disarm.

The announcement by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, comes against the backdrop of fundamental changes in the region, including the reconfiguration of power in neighboring Syria after the toppling of President Bashar Assad, the weakening of the Hezbollah militant movement in Lebanon and the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza.

The conflict between Turkey and the PKK has led to tens of thousands of deaths since it began in 1984.  The ceasefire is the first sign of a breakthrough since peace talks between the PKK and Ankara broke down in the summer of 2015.

The PKK also appealed for Ocalan to be released from Imrali prison, located in the Marmara Sea, to “personally direct and execute” a party congress that would lead to the militants laying down their arms.

Erdogan said Ocalan’s message was a “new phase” in peace efforts in Turkey.

“There is an opportunity to take a historic step toward tearing down the wall of terror that has stood between (Turkish and Kurdish peoples’) 1,000-year-old brotherhood,” Erdogan said on Friday.

Ocalan, 75, wields significant influence in the Kurdish movement despite his 25-year imprisonment, during which the PKK has been led by top figures who have fled and found sanctuary in the Kurdish region in northern Iraq.

But in Syria, Kurdish fighters – who have ties to the PKK, yet are backed by the U.S. – have been involved in intense fighting with Turkish-backed forces on the ground there.

The leader of Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces has said Ocalan’s call for a ceasefire does not apply to his group in Syria.

The fighting is impacting the ability of the new Syrian interim president, Ahmed al-Shara, to unify the entire country, control its many religious and ethnic armed groups (including the Druze), and keep in check Islamic State, which has begun to gather strength again in parts of Syria.

Syria’s Kurds make up about 10 percent of the population.

The new government in Damascus is pressuring the SDF to disarm and merge into a national military force.  But the SDF have been reluctant to do so fearing that could threaten the autonomy of the Kurds in northeastern Syria.

The leader of the SDF, Mazloum Abdi, has said he wants his troops to become part of a new national Syrian army, but he also wants the force to be able to keep its weapons and continue to operated in northeast Syria.

Turkey’s Erdogan, however, opposes any autonomy for the group, having recently referred to the SDF as “separatist murderers,” saying there was no difference between them and the PKK.

As in....it’s a bit complicated, boys and girls.

And it became more complicated late Thursday as forces linked to Ahmed al-Shara engaged in heavy fighting with fighters loyal to deposed President Assad in a coastal area of the country.

It is the worst violence in Syria since the rebels toppled Assad.  The British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said more than 70 people have been killed, due to the fighting in the port cities of Latakia and Tartous.

The clashes started when government forces were ambushed during a security operation in Latakia.

The coastal region is the heartland of the Alawite minority, and a stronghold of the Assad family, which belongs to the Alawite sect.

China: China’s embassy in the U.S. issued the following warning via a tweet during President Trump’s address to a joint session of Congress:

“If war is what the U.S. wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we’re ready to fight till the end.”

Separately, eight leaders or members of a Chinese hacking company have been charged alongside two Chinese law enforcement officers in a global cyberespionage campaign that targeted dissidents, news organizations and U.S. agencies, the Justice Department announced Wednesday.

U.S. officials say its part of a hacking-for-hire ecosystem in China, in which private companies and contractors are paid by the Chinese government to target victims of particular interest to Beijing.

The targets were in some cases directed by China’s Ministry of Public Security – two law enforcements officers were also charged – but in other instances the hackers acted at their own initiative and tried to sell the stolen information to the government afterward, the indictment says. 

Among the targets of the hacking was the U.S. Treasury Department, which disclosed a breach by Chinese actors late last year in what it called a “major cybersecurity incident.”

Meanwhile, President Trump’s heated meeting with President Zelensky has prompted Taiwan to start rethinking how it deals with the U.S., according to Taipei’s top defense official.

“We have deeply recognized that one cannot discuss values without also addressing national interests,” Defense Minister Wellington Koo said at a media briefing on Monday, just before Trump ordered a pause to all military aid to Ukraine.

In remarks that referenced Trump and aggression from China’s armed forces, Koo said that “facing the rapidly changing international situation and escalating threats from the enemy, we cannot rely on the goodwill of others to maintain peace.”

Taiwan has already announced it will step up military spending as a share of its economic output following Trump’s prodding, and has said it could buy more American energy and agricultural products and weapons to cut into its trade surplus with the U.S.

And you see above what Taiwan Semiconductor has committed to.

Related to the topic, Chinese President Xi refocused attention on national security and risk reduction, telling the Communist Party’s inner circle this week that safeguarding the political system is the top priority, as he also announced the 7% increase in defense spending.

Friday, China’s top diplomat, Foreign Minister Wang Yi, accused Donald Trump of taking a hypocritical approach to bilateral ties and denounced tariffs, as tensions rise between the world’s largest economies.

Wang defended his nation’s actions on stemming the flow of fentanyl to the U.S. at a high-profile briefing, and accused Trump of using the issue as a pretext to pressure his government.

“The U.S. shouldn’t return good with evil or even impose arbitrary tariffs on Chinese products,” he said on the sidelines of the National People’s Congress in Beijing.  “No country should fantasize that it can suppress China and maintain good relations with China at the same time.”

“Such two-faced acts are not good for the stability of bilateral relations,” Wang added, seemingly calling out Trump for praising Xi as “brilliant” and touting their “great” relationship while imposing his most sweeping tariffs yet on the Asian nation.

South Korea:  South Korean fighter jets accidentally dropped eight bombs on a civilian district on Thursday, injuring 15 and damaging houses and a church during military exercises in Pocheon, the Air Force and fire agency said.

Pocheon is 25 miles northeast of Seoul, near the heavily militarized border with North Korea. The fighter jets were in a joint exercise with the U.S.

So...you can imagine what was leading the South Korean national news channels that evening.

But Friday’s news will be about the South Korean court cancelling impeached president Yoon Suk Yeol’s arrest warrant, paving the way for his release from jail following his arrest in mid-January on insurrection charges over a brief imposition of martial law.

“The court’s decision to cancel the arrest showed this country’s rule of law is still alive,” Yoon’s lawyers said in a statement.

This was a district court decision that the prosecution can appeal.

The constitutional court is expected to rule soon on Yoon’s impeachment.

Serbia: At least three lawmakers were injured on Tuesday after chaos erupted in Serbia’s parliament, where smoke bombs and flares were thrown.

Lawmakers were scheduled to vote on a law that would increase funding for university education, but opposition parties insisted the session was illegal and should first confirm the resignation of Prime Minister Milos Vucevic and his government.

The incident reflects a deep political crisis in the Balkan country where months-long anti-corruption protests have rattled a populist government.

Vucevic resigned the post in January as authorities faced swelling protests over a collapse in November of a concrete canopy in Serbia’s north that killed 15 people and which critics blamed on government corruption.  Parliament must confirm the prime minister’s resignation for it to take effect.

Random Musings

--Presidential approval ratings....

Gallup: 45% approve of President Trump’s job performance, while 51% disapprove.  37% of independents approve (Feb. 3-16).

Rasmussen: 50% approve, 48% disapprove, unchanged from last week (March 7).

A new CNN poll had Trump’s approval rating at 48%, 52% disapproving, about the same as a prior survey in mid-February. The poll was completed before last Friday’s Oval Office blowup.

Trump continues to be broadly popular with Republicans (90 percent) and unpopular among Democrats (90 percent disapprove), while disapproval among independents is approaching 6 in 10: 41% approve and 59% disapprove.  Earlier in February, independents were split 43-56.

Trump’s 48% approval rating was ahead of his rating before his 2017 speech to Congress.

--In the Democratic rebuttal to President Trump’s address, Tuesday, Michigan Sen. Elissa Slotkin accused Trump of driving up costs while pushing for an “unprecedented giveaway to his billionaire friends.”

Slotkin, just months into her first term in the Senate after winning an open Michigan seat despite Trump carrying the state, said Trump “has not laid out a credible plan” to address rising everyday expenses for Americans.  She said tariffs that went into effect early Tuesday would only worsen the economy.

In her opening, Slotkin acknowledged that “America wants change.  But there is a responsible way to make change, and a reckless way.”

“We can make that change without forgetting who we are as a country and as a democracy,” she said.

It was a good little speech.

--Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Texas) attended the president’s address Tuesday night and hours later he was dead.

Turner, 70, had just been elected to fill the seat of the late Sheila Jackson Lee following her death while in office.  He was a former two-term mayor of Houston after serving for 17 years in the Texas state legislature. 

No cause of death was immediately available.

So....Turner’s death means the House now has 218 Republicans and 214 Democrats, with three vacancies.  Special elections will be held April 1 to fill two vacancies in Republican-leaning Florida districts.

--Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is taking the first steps toward reshaping how the federal government oversees vaccines.  Aside from scuttling meetings of infectious-disease experts, he began scrutinizing vaccine contracts.

Kennedy is collecting names of potential new members to put on a committee that recommends which vaccines Americans should get and when, according to reports.

The moves make clear he is targeting the government’s immunization practices, programs and personnel.

[By the way, the West Texas measles outbreak is now up to 159 cases, 22 hospitalized.  A second death from the outbreak, in New Mexico, was reported Thursday, that state with at least ten cases.]

--Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reinstated the name “Fort Benning” on Monday for one of the nation’s largest military bases – the second such reversal he’s ordered and the first that requires actually removing the name of a U.S. service member.

The base, located in Columbus, Georgia, had been renamed Fort Moore after Lt. Gen. Hal Moore, whose memoir “We Were Soldiers Once...and Young” chronicled his service in Vietnam and the first major battle of the war at Ia Drang.  The name also commemorated his wife, Julia, who pushed the military to develop a more humane system for notifying family members of casualties.

Hegseth first changed Fort Liberty in Fayetteville, North Carolina, back to Fort Bragg, with a memorandum Feb. 10.  Rather than recognizing Braxton Bragg, the Confederate general it was once named after, the memo said the name now honored Pfc. Roland L. Bragg, a World War II veteran awarded the Silver Star and Purple Heart.

Similarly, Fort Benning will now honor Cpl. Fred G. Benning, a World War I veteran who was awarded the Distinguished Service Cross – an honor Hal Moore also earned.  Its previous namesake was the Confederate general Henry Benning.

It’s sickening what happened to Hal and Julia Moore.  The process to decide on the name Fort Moore involved extensive work with local leaders in Columbus, where the post is integral to the economy.  The Moore family prepared a 300-page proposal, including detailed records of Hal and Julia’s service.  In the end, the name changed in 2023 with little local controversy.

“I’m heartbroken,” said former Brig. Gen. Ty Seidule, who participated in the military’s commission to rename the nine posts.

Maj. Gen. Patrick Donahoe, the retired commanding general of the base, expressed similar dismay.

“The opportunity to name one of our premier training bases after both LTG Hal and his spouse Julia Moore is one we should not walk back,” Donahoe said.

This was so unnecessary and for what purpose, Mr. Secretary?

--Andrew Cuomo, the disgraced former governor of New York, announced his bid to be Gotham’s next mayor, marking his first foray back into politics since his resignation in 2021.

Cuomo had resigned in the wake of sexual-harassment allegations and an impeachment effort, and was succeeded by the state’s current Gov. Kathy Hochul.  He has denied wrongdoing.

Cuomo immediately went to the head in the polls; the early consensus being he’s a dirtball, but he just might be an effective mayor.

--Greenland is holding a big election next week, Tuesday, and Prime Minister Mute Egede said on Wednesday that the Greenlandic people will determine their own future and do not want to be Danes nor Americans, this coming after President Trump reiterated his desire to make Greenland part of the United States, Tuesday, in his address to Congress.

--Conservative commentator Ben Shapiro, said that pardoning the killer of George Floyd, Derek Chauvin, the former Minneapolis police officer, would reverse “the evils of the last several years of American life.”

Elon Musk responded to the idea by posting “Something to think about.”  Those four words went to his 220 million followers on X, Tuesday, along with the video from Shapiro.

Beyond pathetic.

--In a kind of scary development on the bird flu front, hundreds of birds at a Queens (N.Y.) live poultry market have succumbed to a new bird flu outbreak – less than two weeks after the shops were allowed to reopen as the virus runs rampant across the nation.

A number of cats in New Jersey have been diagnosed as having contracted the virus.

--A robotic spacecraft from an American startup gently sat down on the moon’s near side early Sunday morning.

The Blue Ghost lander, built by Firefly Aerospace of Cedar Park, Texas, touched down at 3:34 a.m. Easter time.

“You all stuck the landing,” Will Coogan, the Blue Ghost chief engineer, said during a livestream from the flight operations room.  “We’re on the moon.”

This is very cool.

Among the countries, companies and organizations that have attempted in the 21st century to set down softly on the moon, only China can claim complete success on the first try.  Others, including those from India, Russia, an Israeli nonprofit and a Japanese company, all crashed and carved new craters on the lunar surface.

Last year, two landers – one sent by JAXA, the Japanese space agency, and the other by Intuitive Machines of Houston – did successfully land and continued working and communicating with Earth.  But both toppled over, limiting what the spacecraft could accomplish on the moon’s surface.

The Blue Ghost lander is carrying a variety of scientific and experimental payloads, including 10 for NASA.

NASA is looking for a successful lander at a cheaper price than if the agency built its own.  NASA is paying Firefly $101.5 million if all 10 payloads reach the lunar surface, and a bit less if the mission does not fully succeed.

[A 15-foot-tall robotic spacecraft operated by Intuitive Machines, and funded by NASA, on Thursday also attempted to land on the moon.  The spacecraft was communicating with the ground but had tipped over, just like the above-mentioned Intuitive mission from last year.  “I’ve fallen...and I can’t get up!”  The company said today the lander wasn’t at an angle that would enable it to recharge its batteries...and as they say in the ‘hood...the lander be dead.]

--Meanwhile, SpaceX’s massive Starship spacecraft exploded in space on Thursday, minutes after lifting off from Texas, prompting the FAA to half air traffic in parts of Florida, in the second straight failure this year for Elon Musk’s Mars rocket program.

Several videos on social media showed fiery debris streaking through the dusk skies near south Florida and the Bahamas after Starship broke up in space shortly after it began to spin uncontrollably with its engines cut off.

The failure of the eighth Starship test comes just over a month after the seventh also ended in an explosive failure.

The 403-foot rocket system is central to Musk’s plan to send humans to Mars as soon as the turn of the decade.

--The discovery of an unexploded bomb dating back to WW II, severely disrupted rail traffic to and from Paris’ bustling Gare du Nord, the world’s third-busiest train station, on Friday.

The disruption affected commuter rails and national and international trains, including Eurostar services.

The bomb was found 1.5 miles from Gard du Nord, in the middle of the tracks, during routine maintenance.  It was of course underground, but picture all the vibration taking place, year after year after year.  It’s a huge ordnance, they say.  It was eventually disabled, rail traffic resuming.

--Cyclone Alfred is hitting Australia’s third-most populous city today, Brisbane, with catastrophic flooding and huge waves.  Thousands were ordered to evacuate in the eastern region.  I just saw 250,000 are without power.

The storm has been sitting off the coast for days and finally moved inland.

--As of Tuesday, the key snowpack in the Sierra Nevada mountains was at 83% of its historical average, with the northern section at 100%, the central at 76% and the southern at 75%.

But a big storm is forecast to hit California, Wednesday, that could bring copious amounts of rain and snow throughout virtually all of the state. [Having glanced at Truckee, northern Sierras, and L.A. forecasts.]

--Happy 550th birthday to Michelangelo (March 6).  I’d say the dude’s work has held up pretty well with the test of time, like the Sistine Ceiling and “Last Judgement” frescoes, or the statue of David.  Or the Pieta.  Each year, millions and millions vote with their feet, and tourist dollars, to pay homage to these incredible works of art.  He lived to be 88...quite a feat for those days.

---

Pray for the men and women of our armed forces...and all the fallen.

Slava Ukraini!

God bless America.

---

Gold $2919
Oil $67.00

Bitcoin: $87,094 [4:00 PM ET, Friday]

Regular Gas: $3.10; Diesel: $3.64 [$3.39 - $4.05 yr. ago]

Returns for the week 3/3-3/7

Dow Jones  -2.4%  [42801]
S&P 500  -3.1%  [5770]
S&P MidCap  -3.5%
Russell 2000  -4.0%
Nasdaq  -3.5%  [18196]

Returns for the period 1/1/25-3/7/25

Dow Jones  +0.6%
S&P 500  -1.9%
S&P MidCap  -4.3%
Russell 2000  -6.9%
Nasdaq  -5.8%

Bulls 36.7...lowest since late 2022/early 2023.
Bears 28.3

[Investors Intelligence]

Hang in there.

Brian Trumbore

 

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